2023 NBA Draft Guide

Basketball is, at its core, a game of geometry. The angle up to the basket from the floor is what makes height so valuable, the three point large semi-circle puts a premium on perimeter movement and technical distance shooting, and the balance between those, the structure of your team to manufacture advantages within this framework, is how basketball works. 

Victor Wembanyama doesn’t make sense. The experience of watching him for basketball analysis always verges on absurdity. To make the point clearer, in a recent game, the 7’5’’ 19-year old, playing against French league professionals, was out of place in a defensive possession, at least by traditional meaning. He hovered between two “weak” help positions while directing an even more out of place teammate towards the open shooter. Once his teammate recovered, he moved to guard the ball, but from more feet away than most would be able while still deterring a shot. He did this to account for a cutter, effectively acting as the help defender and on-ball defense at the same time. It’s not just his dimensions at this point, but utilizing non-traditional traits in non-traditional ways to stabilize an entire defense at once.

It’s things like this that make me comfortable projecting not just All-Star odds but, dare I say it, Hall of Fame odds for a player like Vic. Nothing is ever guaranteed, and unique body types can mean unique injury risks, but we haven’t even gotten to the offensive side. He is currently leading the French Jeep Elite – the entire league – in scoring at 21.7 points per game, with not just a made shot from every spot of the floor but a made pull-up jumper. His handle progression has been exponential with more offensive freedom on a new, more NBA-like team this season. He has gone from drawing 3.1 free throw attempts per 100 possessions to 8.9, while raising his free throw percentage from 68% to 80%. His three point percentage has hung around 30%, but Wemby has gone from 0.78ppp to 1.13ppp on catch and shoot, and from 2 pullup threes in his entire career to 14 in this single season. It’s tough to tell the difference between the floor and the ceiling, and he’s just getting started.

There is a tendency to view prospects as their resumes as monolithic, sacred texts: this is what is dyed in the wool, we just wait for the leaves to settle…anything to simplify what is an already complex task of projecting a 19 year old’s next 20 years in his chosen profession. But the truth is we know very little about how the future will play out, and pinning hopes on a single individual who is likely still figuring out their place in the world, basketball or not. Basketball is a game played for fun, but at the utmost extreme levels of an always-progressing sport, nothing is guaranteed.

This section is not about doubting Victor Wembanyama, but analyzing what peak of certainty at the #1 spot is even possible. Wemby has been considered the surefire #1 pick, a generational prospect for years now, but that doesn’t mean his projection hasn’t changed. For the 2021-22 season, Vic played with ASVEL in the French first division, putting up 21 points per 100 possessions just like the season before, with his rebounds, assist and block rates dipping.

That all turned around, and dramatically, with his new Metropolitans squad. While ASVEL built little offense around Wemby, mostly using as a bail-out option with the occasional early post up, Mets92 runs everything through the 7’5’’ player who can dribble, pass and shoot. That has paid off to the tune of Vic’s points skyrocketing up to 31.8 points per 100 as the leading scorer in the entire league. This increased freedom has seen Victor explore creation avenues never before imagined, such as free throw line drop steps into finger rolls at the rim, and particularly resulted in the increase of his free throw attempts to 3x the rate as prior. 

I do not expect Wembanyama to return to a lesser role on whichever team drafts him, but do think it’s important to not assume future development is assured of. Vic will hit the ground running in the NBA, but it is his landing spot’s job to keep him doing so. Victor Wembanyama is a historical prospect in one aspect in particular: the number of ways his unique skillset and frame can be utilized. But it still takes creativity of imagination of those around him, too, to appreciate all that is there to find the best scheme to take him there. 

Despite being the youngest player in the G-League throughout the entirety of last season, Scoot Henderson was still able to take on the responsibilities of being the lead guard of the G-League Ignite. He has built off of his year one success in his second year with the Ignite despite just turning 19 only a month ago. It’s easy to see why Henderson has been so successful with the Ignite despite his young age, as he has feel for the game that is well beyond his years. When you pair his feel for the game with his 99th percentile athleticism, creative handle, and developing pull-up shooting abilities, you get one of the best point guard prospects that we have seen in the 21st century.

Most people have Scoot Henderson at #2 in this class. Where I differ from some people is that I believe he is far beyond anyone else in this class not named Victor Wembanyama, and I believe that it would be a huge mistake to pass up on his talent even if he may not be the best selection for current team fit. I could genuinely see Henderson being a top ten player in the league for a long time, and I think there is a strong chance that he could be the best player on a championship winning team down the road. He has all of the tools to do it: his ability to pressure the rim at will and finish through contact is something to behold, his ability to read the defense in an instant is rare, and his mixture of incredible strength, active hands, and quick lateral movement gives him a fairly high ceiling on defense. Scoot Henderson would likely be the #1 overall pick in most draft classes, and I believe that he will one day be a perennial all-NBA candidate. 

The notion of progress is inherently non-linear, involving a complex and multifaceted interplay relative to a given prospect, their context, and a variety of internal and external factors. While it’s tempting to view progress as a straight and predictable path towards a predetermined destination, the reality is that progress is shaped by a spectrum of influences that can lead to disruptive, somewhat unexpected fluctuations in their performance. In regards to prospects who showcase an exceptional aptitude or talent in a particular area from a young age, the journey towards success can involve unforeseen complexities and challenges. Ultimately, the realization of their potential necessitates a sustained effort and a willingness to confront the limits of their innate abilities.

It’s difficult to ignore the relative stagnation in Scoot’s production this year. While his counting stats have risen, his shooting and efficiency splits are largely similar to last year. He’s shooting 32% from three and 44% from the field. More concerningly, he’s only shooting 47% on 2s despite over 60% of his 2Ps coming at the rim.

This is somewhat problematic considering that Scoot has been billed as the type of small guard creator with elite athletic tools and generational burst akin to similar sized guards Derrick Rose, Russell Westbrook, Ja Morant, etc. While the rim frequency is interesting, it also raises important questions regarding the viability of small guards and the inverse relationship between skill and tools.

The most obvious hindrance for small guards sticking in the league is their ability to get to the rim. Getting to the rim constantly is a trait of even the most precocious of pull up shooters (Trae Young had nearly 200 rim attempts in his freshman year), and it’s more of prerequisite than suggestion in a league with increasing wing ball handlers and pick-and-pop centers. Some players are able to mitigate this concern with outlier pull up shooting, but it’s extremely difficult to find small guards who are unable to meet a minimal threshold of advantage creation via attacking the rim. Again, the minimal threshold of skill for these kinds of small guards is incredibly high: one must offer immense value on offense, often in addition to nonpareil playmaking, to account for inevitable hemorrhaging on defense.

Scoot can of course get to the rim relatively well, but if he’s unable to deftly generate positive looks at the rim or from threes as a self creator, then it’s much harder to reach those ridiculously high offensive thresholds in other ways by virtue of his smaller stature. Generating perimeter offense is very hard, and returning 2nd pick value for a smaller guard would entail successful self creation in addition to tools that enable a consistent stream of success in beating multiple lines of defense off-the-dribble. 

As we’re seeing with Trae Young right now, solely middling efficiency from a quasi-heliocentric small creator does not meet those aforementioned offensive thresholds. Further, with these young prospects, the non-linearity of progress that “prodigies” face in realizing their full potential can sometimes be an issue on part of the evaluator. While Scoot is undoubtedly a much different prospect than Trae, the confidence of evaluation in his self creation upside should be considered in whether he truly projects as next in the line of the (seemingly) slowly dying breed of small guard creators. 

There are few things more valuable than rim pressure in the NBA, regardless of era. Beating your man and sending the defense into rotation kickstarts any offense, and the ability to do so on a regular basis is worth its weight in gold.

Amen Thompson’s combination of size, first step quickness, vertical athleticism and mid-air acrobatics are one of one. The virtue of spacing is preached high and low in the modern NBA, as every team needs more of it to compete in the playoffs. Amen Thompson is the kind of player you space the floor around.

There is a verve to his game that captures your imagination. His generational (a lame, overused word that should be saved exclusively for times like these once in a generation traits) athleticism opens the door to passing windows and acrobatic finishes of which most prospects can only dream. What is so enthralling about that is Amen has been learning to harness these advantages for years, and he spends every minute on the court testing its limits. 

There are real concerns about his jumper, touch and overall polish. OTE is a new and, at this point, unproven developmental pathway that is inherently less organized than any other pre-draft context. While there are drawbacks in competition level and defensive infrastructure, there has been ample room for experimentation.

The ultimate question regarding Amen is not his jumper. His stardom as an offensive engine and defensive playmaker is not dependent on a jump shot. He will command the attention of a defense every second the ball is in his hands due to his overwhelming rim pressure. Sagging off only gives him a runway. 

He has a preternatural feel for the spectacular as a passer and is able to use his athleticism to not only punish a defense but manipulate it. There will be some growing pains along the path to an offensive fulcrum, but his inherent understanding of the game and his effect on it is there in spades. 

Amen Thompson has a chance to be a truly singular talent in this league. A shot at drafting that kind of player is what the entire game is about. That isn’t to say there is a lack of risk, as it certainly exists. How much of that risk surrounds the unfamiliarity of his pre-draft context? Is that enough to offset the risk of passing on a franchise-altering star? For me, it’s not particularly close.  

Amen Thompson is one of the most idiosyncratic prospects that I’ve scouted. Every aspect of his profile is unorthodox, and his evaluation is undoubtedly one of the most important inflection points in understanding the translatability and developmental plasticity of key skills.

There’s a number of common criticisms of Amen Thompson, which many view somewhat skeptically. For instance, he’s only a handful of weeks older than Brandon Miller, with a January 2003 birthday better suited for a sophomore. He does play in the Overtime Elite League, a completely unknown developmental ecosystem full of prospects younger than him. His finishing numbers are a bit lackluster considering the lack of cognizant rim protection within the league. And, most commonly cited of all, his jumper is clearly dysfunctional, with poor pull-up 2%, 3P%, and even FT%.

We know all of these criticisms, and I can even respond with common refutations of these criticisms. The implied age of Amen is much younger by virtue of the limited goodness of the surrounding developmental ecosystem, so he may accelerate along the developmental curve much faster when the attention of a NBA development staff is upon him. Theoretically, this should address some of the shooting concerns a bit as well. And while the finishing numbers are somewhat disappointing, Amen is also perhaps the most dynamic, outlier biomechanical prospect ever. The finishing numbers may actually be a product of his offensive ingenuity and even boredom playing against the same teams over and over again. For an athlete of his caliber, improvement should be relatively low hanging fruit.

These arguments are endlessly overused every day, and to be quite frank, neither side is explicitly wrong. The Thompsons are somewhat disappointing statistically, and this is not mutually exclusive with the well-accepted fact that they are also the most dominant, fluid athletes to enter the draft for years. How many “connectors” are always the most athletic player every time they step on the court?

My concern is the combinatory effect of each of these concerns. While each concern may not hold individual credence, there are enough statistical red flags to make me hesitate. Why is someone who is such a generational athlete not incredibly dominant in a league full of teenagers? Freddie Dilione, the 41st ranked combo guard in the class of 2023, broke the OTE scoring record in his first game and averaged 28-6-6-3 during a full week against OTE teams. Cam Boozer, the 1st ranked player among 2007-born players, dropped 28-20-5 in 31 minutes as he led a team of Florida high schoolers over the YNG Dreamerz, the team that played the Thompsons in the OTE Finals. Are these isolated instances that could very well mean nothing? Yes, absolutely; it should also be noted that while the Thompsons played separately in their first season, they were teammates for the entire 2022-23 season. 

Ultimately, Amen Thompson tests the philosophical boundaries of draft evaluation. He’s an unforeseen athletic connector with insane playmaking feel and limited experience in a truly professional infrastructure. There are also a number of statistical data points that test the veracity of the eye-test, primarily surrounding Amen’s lack of relative dominance and scoring repertoire stagnation during his two seasons in OTE. Your interpretation of Amen Thompson’s potential success is ultimately a barometer of your own evaluatory paradigms. 

Brandon Miller has been an impressive player since he stepped foot on Alabama’s campus. Coming into the year some questions needed to be answered on the potential top-five pick in the upcoming NBA Draft. I don’t think my thoughts on a player have shifted as much as it has with Brandon Miller. Watching his tape with Brad Beal Elite he didn’t really pop in the way he is with Alabama. Shooting is the primary skill that has developed, and quickly. When I look at that improvement I think it says a lot about the type of worker and player he is. According to Cerebro Sports, Brandon Miller in 15 games for Brad Beal Elite during Peach Jam averaged 1.9 three-point attempts a game and shot 27.6% on those attempts. If you fast forward to now at Alabama he is now shooting 40% on 7.6 attempts a game. His ability to shoot off movement, catch and shoot, and different types of footwork is just truly remarkable. 

The improvement in his ball handling has been great to see as well. Driving the basketball is something Miller can continue to work on, because if there was something to nitpick in his game it would probably be how tough it is for him to create paint touches for himself. I think the lack of paint touches has to do with his lack of burst, but there are players in the NBA that win in other ways than just being a bursty player. If Brandon can grind in the weight room and add more muscle to his frame, it could really help with some more strength creation.  

The other loud criticism of his has been his finishing, as early in the season I could definitely get behind those same critiques, but has improved recently as well (notice a pattern?). Finishing at the rim is no longer a concern for me as I think it’s been overblown as a limitation, but it’s the ability to get to those finishes that could improve. The passing is another skill of Brandon’s that I think has continued to improve as he’s shown some nice feel for distributing. Lastly, the pick-and-roll repetitions as a ball handler have been intriguing. Brandon is by no means a passing savant, but if you combine his nuclear shooting with pick-and-roll chops you have a super fun player.

Brandon Miller is someone that I think can be neutral on the defensive side of the court. He’s not someone that can be a superstar on that end, but he uses his size pretty well when guarding on the perimeter and he has really flexible hips that help a ton with screen navigation. I would also say when off the ball he reads passing lanes really well. 

Considering his rate of improvement, particularly the shooting versatility and comfort finishing and passing, and potential to be more in the future, Brandon Miller should be a top-three pick in the 2023 NBA Draft. 

Brandon Miller came into Alabama as a potential one and done prospect, and he is leaving Alabama as a solidified top ten pick after his phenomenal freshman campaign with the Crimson Tide. Miller’s developments from high school and EYBL play to his freshman year at Alabama have been absolutely incredible, as he has transformed from a player who did not shoot many three pointers to one of the three best shooters in this draft class. I have essentially no questions about Miller’s shooting, but I do have questions about other facets of his game.

To start, Miller seems to struggle playing through contact. On drives to the rim where he has to take tighter angles, Miller oftentimes struggles against smaller or like-sized defenders that are able to bump him off of his spot. Well-used contact against stronger players often disorients Miller on his drive entirely, which can lead to squandered advantages and scoring opportunities. He is flexible enough to essentially duck low to absorb contact more effectively against taller defenders, but it is much harder to do this against players who are his size or even a bit shorter. Gaining strength will likely help Miller in this regard, though some of these issues feel a bit more complex for him to fix, especially when taking the step into the NBA.

This contact-aversion results in him taking many wide angles to the basket, which has been a nice way for Miller to get to the rim despite his issues with playing through contact. When he does get fully to the rim with these wider angles, he is sometimes at a difficult finishing angle due to the angle he took, and he seems to struggle at finishing in difficult situations. Finally, these wide angles can lead to him being susceptible to digs from defenders shading towards the gap that he is driving into, and I am not sure his handle is currently up to speed to handle these digs. However, this can lead to a good amount of kickouts to strongside shooters, which would mean that Miller is generating efficient offense on his drives if he is not losing the ball too much to these digs. Miller is an underrated passer overall, though I do have some concerns about his overall reactive playmaking.

When people compare the Thompson twins, they usually discuss strengths and weaknesses as primary, occasional secondary offensive hubs. My difference here, and why I have Ausar Thompson at #3 on my board, is I believe that’s Amen’s 1A plan, but Ausar’s 1B. It may feel difficult to project “elevated role players” in, say, a Shawn Marion or OG Anunoby or Mikal Bridges mold this high in the draft, but I think the overall proliferation of size x skill in the past decade has changed that calculus. It’s the same that made Chet Holmgren the #2 pick last year after being third (and barely) in field goal attempts at Gonzaga.

Ausar is 6’7’’ with a 6’10’’ wingspan, and, with the exception of his twin, the most dynamic athlete on the wing in this class. Amen has an unreal first step, acceleration and max vertical while Ausar is the slinkier athlete: he is able to duck under screens and explode in a moment’s notice more consistently than his brother. This makes me comfortable with projecting him as an elite defender, quickly. While his positioning is more good than great, sometimes just okay, he is imperceptibly rapid in rotations or sticking with a ball handler in a pivotal moment. He hunts transition opportunities, whether open court steals or chase down blocks, and I would be comfortable giving him extremely difficult on-ball assignments early. 

This brings us to the other end of the court, where his off-ball abilities fit in nicely with a more onerous defensive role. His shooting form and touch are superior to Amen, if still average at best, but good enough to expect at least soft closeouts. While Ausar may struggle creating separation and angling for finishing angles than Amen, this shooting gravity differential makes a world’s difference as far as attacking angle. Get him some daylight (OTE is not known for its spacing) and a little bit of time to figure out his gather footwork and there may be few in the league I’d trust as much as Ausar getting downhill at his peak. Spoken of as the worse offensive prospect, Ausar still put up 23.9 points and 8.9 assists per 40 minutes. The efficiency against a set defense was poor, though improved over the season. But in my preferred role for Thompson, the path to positive efficiency on high play-finishing/connecting usage is still there. And, even though his transition offense is better than set offense, transition play is an important part of the basketball game. When I watch Ausar’s tape, it doesn’t take too much imagination to see a star path in a hybrid role, and still with fall back plans with many opportunities to succeed. 

Similarly to his twin brother Amen, Ausar Thompson is a sensational athlete capable of impacting the game on both ends of the court. On the defensive end, Ausar outperforms his brother with a higher level of engagement and an ability to read opposing offenses quicker and more consistently. This defensive impact even manifests statistically with Ausar managing 5.2 steals & blocks per 40 minutes compared to Amen’s 4.7.

However, on the offensive end the twins’ skill sets are a bit different and that’s why I’m a good bit higher on Amen than Ausar. Ausar doesn’t often break down his man off the dribble, and, even when he’s given a chance to get the ball in motion coming off a screen with the first defender effectively beaten, he has yet to find any ways to counter that defender, either. Despite this, Ausar’s significant late season improvements as a shooter (38% from three, 82% from the line) still project him as a valuable offensive player. But I envision him in a more auxiliary off-ball role through his shooting, off-ball slashing, passing and transition abilities. That lack of on-ball offensive projection to the NBA level has Ausar drop slightly below a couple of prospects that I think have a greater chance of carrying part of his team’s offensive creation.

Every team is looking for the next great two-way 4. The kind of player that can wreak havoc as an opportunistic forward and anchor a defense as a smallball 5 while providing essentially any kind of value on the offensive end. 

That offensive impact is not limited to one facet, but is more of a broad placeholder for competence. Are you effective enough to stay on the court? If so, how are you able to provide tangible positive value? That can be as a finisher, a short roll passer, a floor pacer, or even a shot creator. It doesn’t matter what, it just matters that an avenue for impact exists.

Within this construct, the idea of Jarace Walker is an incredibly appealing one. With a powerful frame, plus wingspan and remarkable anticipation for a prospect his age, Jarace is a wonderfully effective defensive prospect. He rebounds like a center, executes his responsibilities as a help defender to a T, and has the natural timing needed for event creation. 

On the other end of the court, hitting the initial threshold of offensive playability feels like a certainty. There is genuine reason for optimism in his floor spacing, playmaking, and shot creation. If any of those three hit, Jarace is all but guaranteed to become an impactful playoff contributor. Anything beyond that and you are quickly approaching two-way star territory. 

While his assist rate of 12.1% doesn’t jump off the page, the speed with which he makes decisions as a passer does. Jarace had more room to explore the studio space as a creator in high school and his role at Houston has been relatively limited due to their offensive scheme and veteran talent on the roster. He does what is asked and makes sound decisions with the ball, but it is easy to see a pathway towards short roll creation with improved spacing and scheme in the NBA. 

Jarace has shot ~34% from three, ~61% from the line and ~59% on non-dunk rim attempts. That is not an overwhelmingly positive shot profile, but it is far from a discouraging one, His touch is solid and the form doesn’t have any jarring issues. Projecting that forward, stationary shooting from three feels very achievable. If he’s able to force closeouts and use that space to get downhill while making plays for others, good luck. 

Jarace Walker has more than enough tools in his toolbox to make it in the league, but his skills’ effectiveness on their own is only part of the story. Figuring out what you can make with all of those tools is the exciting part, and it’s only just beginning. 

Let me preface all this by saying I love Jarace Walker. He’s an elite defender, plays with one hell of a motor, can create his own shot and is one of the strongest freshmen in recent memory. He was extremely impactful on the best team in college basketball (Go Coogs) and was a big reason they won a handful of tight games. He was also incredible at IMG and often outplayed fellow expected lottery pick Keyonte George. 

My issues with Jarace come with role and some physical issues that I am not qualified enough to truly answer or get a grasp on. Many harped on the role Jarace played this year with Houston, and how different it was than IMG. However, I feel like the role was a bit similar, with just a shorter leash and more difficulty. Jarace still created a ton off the dribble, taking 43 off the dribble jumpers and driving to the rim 90 times this season, per Synergy. The issue came with the fact that Houston wants to win, and having a player shoot 33% on pull-up jumpers and 32% on drives doesn’t help you win. Walker scored 1.06 points per possession on Catch & Shoot jumpers, showing he can be used a bit as a floor spacer, but he struggled a ton to attack downhill this year and be impactful off the dribble. His role at the next level is a bit hazy to me, as he’s also a bit too small to play down low, but his defense will force a team to figure it out and have him on the floor.

The other issue I mentioned was physical, and that’s mostly because Walker is extremely pigeon-toed (if you disagree just pause a UH game at any point where he’s just standing up somewhere and look at his feet). This doesn’t exactly impact his stock for me, just a thing to note, especially if I was on a team that didn’t know how to manage this situation. He also has a pretty defined valgus that I’m sure doesn’t help the pigeon-toe. I am not a doctor, so I have no idea how easy this is to fix, but I do know that both issues heavily limit mobility and coordination, and I think we saw that have an impact on his play this year. I can only hope it isn’t an issue at the next level. All this being said, Walker is still a top-10 player in this class, and one of my favorite players to watch.

As someone who started grinding Barttorvik stats before learning to watch and derive meaningful insights from tape, I’ve always been fascinated by the broad developmental paradigms people utilize to project success. There’s a notable faction of draft twitter that engages in highly qualitative abstractions of player profiles; this abstraction serves to systematically emphasize indispensable characteristics of prospects that can independently ascertain the goodness of a prospect’s projection. For instance, Steph Curry projected as an elite shooter but poor athlete; Jokic/Sengun were good passers but can they defend?

These pithy, one-liner summations of a prospect’s strengths and weaknesses may hold some value in mainstream draft discourse, but it’s fundamentally a misleading enterprise. Chet is a great shooter and elite shot blocker, but John Butler is a solid shooter, good shot blocker, and can defend the POA. Who is better? Jaylen Brown was an interesting pull-up shooter in college, but what could he or prospect Franz Wagner bring to an NBA team right now?

Solely looking at numbers is how you end up with Brandin Podziemski top 10 (maybe he does deserve to be top 10?), but it’s also a lesson in holism and considering the varied goodness of multiple parameters. By the original logic, Franz Wagner was a low-upside offensive talent with good team defense potential, but this fails to consider the uniqueness of his combination of touch/size/unassisted long 2 rate/ incredible productivity. This “distinctive integration” evaluative paradigm is much more likely to note how Jaylen Brown took an uncanny number of PU 2’s while also getting to the rim a ton, was a high octane passer ~15% assist rate, and could generate exceptional ground reaction forces by virtue of his athletic tools. 

With that being said, my pitch for Taylor Hendricks is that there has never been a prospect like Taylor Hendricks. To begin, he’s immensely productive, with 4.4 PRPG and 7.2 Box Plus-Minus. He’s one of the best freshman wing shooters ever at 6’9, shooting 40% from 3 on over 8 3P/100 possessions and a solid 79% FT to boot. Very good 6’9 freshman shooters with great productivity are somewhat rare, but not altogether uncommon; is Hendricks really that uncommon?

Well, Hendricks is a tremendously functional athlete, especially as a cutter, with a whopping 35 dunks. This intersection of dunks/shooting volume/productivity by wings has simply never been reached by any freshman. Even more impressively, Hendricks is an incredibly sound shot blocker who can switch onto smaller guards relatively well, yielding a block rate of 6% and steal rate of 1.6%. 4s who can assist as weak side rim protectors in spurts is an archetype that is quite en vogue at the moment in the league; none of them have put up precocious shooting numbers even remotely close to that of Hendricks. There’s more: Hendricks is a strong rebounder, and has a 1.0 A/TO, with passing flashes to hit cutters and some burgeoning handle manipulation flashes. For someone who takes on such an exhaustive defensive role, he has an incredibly low foul rate (2.4 FC/40). 

Hendricks is a 6’9’’ freshman with high 3P volume and accuracy, high dunk volume, relatively high block rate, solid rebounder, and does not turn the ball over much. The closest comp I can think of is Trey Murphy, who is a better shooter at the moment but cannot protect the rim even close to the level of Hendricks. Hendricks has quite a distinct integration of goodness that isn’t even worth a Barttorvik query since no one has come remotely close to matching his strengths. There is relatively little latent self creation upside, and he’s a pretty poor rim finisher excluding the dunks. And yet, Hendricks already fits the essential “rim-protecting 4 archetype” without even accounting for his shooting skills- he surely has developmental pathways that we cannot even comprehend.

Taylor Hendricks is exactly the kind of player I fall in love with every cycle. Hendricks has legit bounce, his movements on the court can catch you off guard in their suddenness and explosion. He will enter the NBA as a teenager and a legit NBA athlete, no questions asked. Couple that with real shot versatility beyond the arc and flashes of rim pressure and you check just about all of the sexy “upside” boxes.

Where I have struggled to jump on board is the connection of those raw skills. Hendricks has the kind of quick twitch athleticism needed to create offensive advantages and defensive events, but can struggle to leverage that into an effective action. He doesn’t read the floor remarkably quickly on either end: his passing is a work in progress and, despite his solid block and steal rates, I often came away a little cold regarding his defensive activity and anticipation. 

The handle is the biggest point of concern offensively. He has very little wiggle to his game off the bounce and it is difficult to see him developing past an effective straight line driver. He struggles to maintain his handle in tight spaces and lacks the inherent creativity required for counters. 

That kind of limits his potential role, and the types of rosters he can thrive on. He should be incredibly effective playing off of a true primary initiator, feasting on the advantages provided to him. Put him in a situation where he is asked to make decisions in a more interconnected offensive scheme and I worry about the viability of his potential offensive skill set, and the likelihood of hitting the kind of defensive upside needed to counteract it.  

The shot is legit and his defensive tools leave little room for complaint, but the places where he can truly thrive may be more limited than it seems. 

While Cason Wallace does not seem as offensively-inclined as former Calipari-coached Kentucky lead guards (such as De’Aaron Fox, Jamal Murray, or even Shai Gilgeous Alexander), his production should nonetheless come with an understanding of the Caliparian context. 

One-and-done factories are somewhat mutualistic relative to the prospect, but they still inherently converge towards a baseline of cohesiveness with other players to win the greatest amount of games. The Caliparian context is especially unique, however, by virtue of the immense volume of five-stars that flow in and out of the program every year. More so than programs that only have a few annual top 100 recruits at best, Kentucky has a diversity of underclassmen- and it’s intuitively really really hard to consider the optimal development of every single teenager. The reason Calipari-coached guards in particular tend to outperform their draft slots is because Calipari’s priority is to assign them to a niche paradigmatic of his former winning teams, not to put them in a role to showcase/develop their skills. 

Cason is a high volume shooting prospect with great touch indicators and an impressive volume of self creation, shooting ~35% from 3 on 7 3PA/100, with 76% FT. That’s pretty solid on its own, and it does indicate a baseline level of touch and volume. However, one of the most underdiscussed microskill developments was Cason’s midrange excellence. He made about 40% of his 100 attempted mid range shots at a measly 7.5% assisted rate. These are impressive numbers, with 50 of those midrange shots coming over the last month. Self-created pull ups at that volume are a surefire sign of self creation efficacy, and these numbers are only buoyed by his 80th percentile floater volume. Cason is a master of scoring at the intermediate level, with quick trigger and decelerative ability to stun his man and quickly rise for a quick PU.

Still, a 6’4 guard with baseline touch, shooting volume, and pull-up equity is not terribly rare. Rarely any of these kinds of players, however, also have the athleticism or strength to pull off 11 dunks or a whopping 70% rim efficiency. Cason is not a transition merchant or backdoor cut specialist either, he creates many of his dunks and finishes from a standstill in the halfcourt. Cason’s strength and rim efficiency are unique relative to his self creation rate.

Passing efficiency and defensive acumen are the most commonly-cited markers of Cason’s value. Rather than relay the particulars of these general attributes, I cite them here to highlight Cason’s immense processing ability. Cason is a consistent pnr operator, often using his strength to encumber defenders on his hip to buy extra time for Tshiebwe to roll. His strength and finishing goodness seem to allow Cason to leverage the threat of the rolling big into floaters or midrange PUs, and he rapidly punishes any sort of dysfunctional switch with his accurate, quick decisions. On defense, he’s able to contain and box out much larger wings by virtue of his immense functional strength. With 2.1 A/TO, 1.7% block, and 3.7% steal rates, Cason’s decision making acumen and functional strength on both ends strengthens his value proposition.

Ultimately, Cason is one of a kind. He’s mechanically skillful and extremely strong, his offensive profile hints at self creation upside, and his quick processing at both ends is a positive buoy for potential outlier development. Despite his unorthodoxy, he seems likely to follow in the line of Calipari-coached guards who grossly outperform in the NBA. 

I expect Cason Wallace to be a really good role player, but fall short on the star potential. Cason is one of the best programmatic players in the draft, the most workmanlike near the top with an endless motor and dedicated focus. But at 6’4’’ and stuck at under 20 points per 100 possessions (he only scored over 20 in a game twice compared to 13x under 10 points), I struggle to see the offensive upside that would earn him a spot in the lottery. 

I would hate to be guarded by Wallace on defense, a perfect on/off-ball hybrid defender who can use his strength to keep players off their spot while also reacting quickly to fight through screens. But on offense, he can be very content as a passive table-setter, both reluctant to attack and lacking the burst and creativity to create from standstill. His shot is not bad by any means, with 35% three point shooting (84% assisted) and 77% from the line, but on limited volume by modern guard standards. Kentucky can be a post-first offense, but if anything that masks Wallace’s limited ability to create from the perimeter. His driving instincts, midrange touch and passing are solid, but none in ways that would be hyper efficient in a limited role or capable of expansion into a larger one. 

I love Cason as a top 20 pick, but prefer the wider distribution of outcomes I sense in others like Ant Black, Keyonte George or Nick Smith Jr. Just because I can’t see it doesn’t mean it’s not there. Perhaps Wallace will only grow in his feel for offense as he is likely to deserve a rotation role quickly into his career. But a mediocre connector on offense, even with elite defensive potential, for me falls just outside this year’s lottery. 

Cam Whitmore’s Villanova campaign hasn’t been the smoothest but with his breathtaking athleticism, solid perimeter shooting, and forever growing on-ball game, he has the tools to make an impact in a variety of ways. With his strength he can shield defenders off of him while still having more than enough lift to finish at the basket. His type of explosive athleticism can help an offense in dire need of rim pressure whether he’s on or off the ball. He can eat up open spaces in the defense in the halfcourt or in transition where he will be a huge help and is bound to make a highlight play 9 times out of 10. With the need of rim pressure being so high in today’s game asa lot of teams focus on creating space for the three point shot, Whitmore can add that downhill presence that teams are looking for. 

Whitmore’s three pointer has been steady throughout the year with some of his makes being highlight-reel, off-the-dribble, NBA-range threes over defenders. His development in this area of the game has been noticeable as he was not a known shooter while in high school. So while the numbers aren’t eye popping for a regular prospect (34.3% from three on 108 attempts), the threat of Whitmore’s slashing ability makes any type of viable outside shot that much more valuable. The shot will need to be sped up a bit but with NBA coaching, I think he can maintain or even improve upon that 34% percentage throughout his career. 

Whitmore’s on-ball game is still in development but when it works, he can look like a worldbeater. Pairing his athleticism with a handle and using the proper angles to get around defenders and finish properly would create a monster that no one would want to defend. He has been given many pick-and-roll reps throughout the year to show that he is absolutely capable of running primary actions for himself or to get another man open. As of now, Cam Whitmore already has a solid foundation of skills to be a downhill presence, spot up shooter, and off-ball cutter. But with steady development of a few key areas like finishing and driving craft, developing quicker processing, and steady tweaks to the shooting, Whitmore can be a devastating presence on or off the ball that will draw help defenders on almost every possession.

Villanova has a long history of producing useful role players, often out of unheralded HS prospects who pivot and defend and pass-without-dribbling their way to big NBA contracts. So when a top recruit, one with bruising athleticism and burgeoning skill signed with the Wildcats, I had big expectations. With their season now closing in the NIT following early season injuries for Whitmore, I unfortunately struggle to project Whitmore reaching stardom in comparison to some of his lower-ranked peers. 

Whitmore is a bucket, surely, with a great first step, shockingly quick to accelerate for his 232-pound frame. He is listed as 6’7’’ but appears closer to 6’5’’ on the floor, the first knock in my projection as closer to big guard in height than true wing. He gets to the rim quickly and loves taking pull-up threes after a short cross and a side-step, typically to his back left. But I am less convinced these are building blocks for a foundational scorer rather than programmatic reads that will struggle to find counters. Which leads to my bigger concern: Whitmore’s overall positioning and ability to read the game, quickly.

On defense he racks up a ton of steals, which he likely will be able to do with decent success in the NBA with his elite strength and acceleration, closing up passing lanes or scooping up ballhandler mistakes in an instant. However, Cam has a tendency to ball watch and, even when engaged, be a step slow in recognizing his rotation, margins which are more costly in the league. These will be a point of emphasis for his drafting team but ultimately limits his upside, especially as I believe it mirrors a lack of proper positioning with consistency on offense, as well.

Whitmore’s shot has fallen at a good rate for a year and a half now and on many self-created attempts, but I still struggle to buy it going at a high enough rate to earn tight closeouts. Which gets me to my final concern: his lack of flexibility. Whitmore’s driving is advertised as a major selling point, but he is pretty much just a straight line driver who only draws 5.6 FTAs in 100 possessions, the 7th highest rate on his team. He draws a foul on 11% of his drives, less than Anthony Black, Keyonte George, GG Jackson or Maxwell Lewis while above Jett Howard, Gradey Dick and Jarace Walker. With far from a rounded out game and clear weaknesses even in his strengths, I would struggle to draft Cam Whitmore in the top 10 with any level of confidence.

Projecting shooters at the highest level is always a bit of an art. Proven time and again, there is not one consistent form, from base to follow through, for the players with the most threes made at the highest rates. But watching Gradey Dick, 6’8’’ with a rumored ~7-foot wingspan (which shows here and there) form his shooting motion with a very mechanic but exaggerated version of Klay Thompson’s shot pocket, I struggle to see any wasted motion. Gradey is able to catch into his set, releasing into a three pointer with only a slight bend in few fractions of a second. His percentages back this up, both at Kansas and for years prior.

The game around the shot is adequate at worst, but consistently building and with no glaring weaknesses. He is big enough to do wing things like set screens, cut to the rim here in there and in transition, and make his frame big enough on contests in the defensive end. He gets steals, some blocks, some dunks, but more importantly has looked increasingly locked in to scheme, being a key feature of an elite Kansas defense. Shooting makes everything easier in basketball, especially when you’re tall and can maintain some physicality. Dick will be the best shooter on his NBA team while not being its worst defender, and, in an upside scenario I think is well within reach, not even its second worst defender. Sprinkle in some decent connective passing and you have one of the cleanest off-ball development paths possible. Give Gradey his shots, he’ll make them.

Gradey Dick is an absolutely phenomenal shooter from outside, and this skill will likely get him onto an NBA court from day one. I am fairly high on Gradey’s projection as an off ball play finisher with his outside shooting and ability to decisively attack closeouts, but I would not make many on ball projections for Gradey going forward. 

Gradey will likely not be creating many advantages in the NBA, and he will have to operate off of others tilting the defense to be able to maximize his skillset. If Gradey is playing in lineups without someone who can apply pressure on the rim, he will likely be getting fewer opportunities to score at a high rate. I believe that there is potential for him as someone who can potentially operate second side actions, though I question if he will be able to get all the way to the rim effectively in these side pick and roll situations. Finally, I think that a lack of on-ball capabilities likely will hinder his creativity with the ball at the next level, which is a big reason as to why I believe he will not be creating many of his own advantages. Despite all of my questions about him, I believe he will be one of the more effective players in this class from day one, and all of us at Swish Theory seem to believe in his game translating long term.

One of my main philosophies for team-building is having a big guard on the floor who can be a versatile defender and a playmaker out of different sets and positions. Being able to initiate, connect and create on offense while locking up on defense can open up a lot for a team. Ranked #14 by RSCI in the 2022 high school class, Ant Black fits this mold perfectly and performs at an extremely high level. 

As a 6’7” playmaker, Black showcased his ability to manipulate the court on a talented Arkansas team, providing elite rim pressure and leading the Razorbacks in assists. Black posted a free throw rate of 57.2 while also shooting 64% at the rim, per barttorvik.com. His size and athleticism paired with his handle make him a difficult cover, and if his shot is able to progress it will open even more for him moving forward.

However, the case for him being ranked highly on my board is his ability to have a positive impact in every game defensively. Black may arguably be the best wing defender in the class, while also being able to stay in front of guards due to his quickness. He posted a positive DBPM in all but 3 games this season (double-digit losses to Tennessee, Vanderbilt and Alabama). 

Black’s defense is what sells him as a top player in this class for me, and his rim pressure, passing ability and offensive growth are just the differentiators that have him ranked higher than other “big guards” like Amen and Ausar Thompson (as well as being able to assess the level of competition/skill gap easier). Being the ideal versatile piece to add to a young and growing team, while also having one of the best college basketball seasons in the freshman class, are what make Ant Black the 3rd best player in the class on my board.

Anthony Black is both an incredibly intelligent guard and a plus athlete at 6-foot-7, yet I feel fully confident in being the lone contributor to rank him outside the lotto.

Black will be a positive on the defensive end no matter what. He covers ground quickly and is a great vertical athlete who’s ability to read the offense in an instant allows for definite defensive impact. On the other hand, he doesn’t project as a primary point of attack defender or rim protector, meaning his team will still need to have two other players on the court with Black to fill those roles. This isn’t a problem on its own, but when paired with Black’s offensive skill set you’ll start to see my point.

Black shoots the exact same percentage from 3-point range as he does the mid-range, 31%. This is low enough to mean his team will also need to provide shooters to surround him in addition to the aforementioned point of attack defender and rim protectors. You would also have to keep in mind that you’re setting all of this up for a player who’s unlikely to ever eclipse the low teens in scoring. Despite Arkansas putting the ball in Ant Black’s hands a lot due to Nick Smith’s injuries, he was still only a 12 point per game scorer this season for Arkansas. That 12 point per game mark is likely a bit flattering to his NBA scoring projection as well. Black’s scoring at Arkansas has been extremely reliant on his ability to get to the free throw line (5.2 FTA per game), many of which come against recovering defenders which he’s less likely to see in the NBA as he doesn’t project to consistently create that initial advantage against NBA defenses.

In spite of all of this, I still have Black ranked 15th because he is an undeniably awesome prospect and Arkansas have been 11 points per 100 possessions better with him on the court. I simply struggle to rank him higher than some of the other players because just as he provides a lot of solutions to certain problems, he also provides a lot of problems of his own.

Nick Smith Jr.’s freshman season was marred by lingering injuries and rocky play, but I think his combination of elite touch, handling upside and well-rounded game is worth a pick in the top 4 of this class. Smith hasn’t shot the ball especially well this season at Arkansas (34% from 3, 74% from the line) but has a track record of special touch from both floater range and three dating back to his high school/EYBL days. He’s a valuable shooter both off the dribble and off the catch, the latter of which is augmented by his smarts as an off-ball mover. Smith is a safe bet to be an incredibly impactful off-ball scorer due to his combination of shooting, reliable floater, off-ball movement, and high feel connective passing. The divisive part of Smith’s draft case rests in his upside as a creator.  

Smith is a non-traditional creator in that he rarely generates layups for himself off the dribble (only 28 rim attempts in 369 minutes this season). Still, I think he can mask his deficiencies as a driver in a few ways. First, his craft getting to his aforementioned godly floater is already quite advanced, and should be a shot he can reliably generate in the NBA, especially against drop.

Second, his pick-and-roll passing acumen is also a strength, and he’s already shown promise leveraging the threat of his floater to open up easy lobs to his rollers.

Above all, Smith doesn’t need to provide enough rim pressure to run an offense to return top-4 value, as his strong off-ball play will allow him to be a key cog in a good offense as long as he can provide secondary punches of creation as a PnR and transition self-creator (his transition game has gone a bit under-discussed this cycle, as his pre-college tape has plenty of electric moments in the open court). I think in time he projects as a versatile second-star scorer who can hold his own defensively and fit seamlessly alongside offensive engines. 

Nick Smith Jr seems to have very clear translatability. He’s a high RSCI shooting guard with touch reminiscent of the new generation of burgeoning off guards, ie Poole, Simons, Maxey. He has optimal length and a powerful floater, and he’s relatively young for his class.

My questions with NSJ, however, concern his viability as a self-creation perimeter oriented “star” in the league. Let’s start with the disclaimer that NSJ has only played 28% of Arkansas’ minutes, as he’s struggled with various lower body injuries. More importantly, this is certainly a case of small sample size, implying limited predictive power of these numbers. Nonetheless, there are some stats that tend to stabilize much faster than others, including rim rate and rebounding.

Looking at numbers that are similar across the season and in conference (post-injury), NSJ simultaneously posted incredibly low offensive and defensive rebounding splits (1.3%/6.5%), low free throw rate (23.7), low two point (42%), and true shooting (49%). 

While these numbers may seem somewhat incoherent, it’s important to contextualize how low they are relative to previous drafted players. Of the mere 5 first round picks who had rebounding splits under 2%/7%, none were above 6-2, and the best player was likely DJ Augustin. NSJ truly rebounds like a small guard, which may not be entirely relevant, but in aggregate with the poor rim rate stats, the collection of these data points incite some concern.

While functional athleticism is not a necessity for guards with outlier touch, the players that NSJ is often compared to have undeniable burstiness that allow them to get to the rim at relatively high rates. Maxey shot 65% at-the-rim on ~3.5 attempts per game, Poole shot 71% at-the-rim on ~1.7 attempts/game, and Simons may not have played in college but he also won the Dunk Contest. Bradley Beal was at 65% on 3.7 attempts/game and McCollum was at 59% on 4.2 attempts/game. In comparison, NSJ is at 53% at-the-rim on 2 attempts/game, with even lower conference splits. Similarly, none of these players was remotely close to NSJ’s sub-30 free throw rate or his sub-50 2P%. In short, NSJ not only doesn’t get to the rim as much as comparable players, but he doesn’t finish efficiently even when he gets there.

Perhaps a better comp would be Immanuel Quickley, who also had immensely low 2P%, FTR, and rim rates and efficiency. Quickley also had around a +4 wingspan. This is certainly not an outcome to scoff at, and perhaps this indicates that NSJ can reach some sort of optimal defensive outcome as well.

The point of this exercise is not to say that NSJ will never provide value close to players that he is oft-compared to, but it does lead to some degree of reasonable doubt. I simply don’t know if NSJ is functionally athletic enough to be close to the same heights. Perhaps NSJ simply needs to heal from his knee injury, or maybe his outlier touch and floater reliance is enough to make up for outlier-low finishing. But nonetheless, I am less confident about his ability to provide requisite value for a combo guard relative to some other, more robust wing bets in the same range.

Dariq is around the same place on my board as he was entering the season. Despite a year of injuries and an underwhelming role at Duke, I am unwavering.

The calculus on that is pretty straightforward. Dariq will be 18 on draft night and is one of the youngest players in the class after having re-classified to enroll at Duke a year early. The last 18 months of Whitehead’s high school career saw a sharp increase in his trajectory as a shooter. Despite his struggles with injury to begin the season, Dariq is shooting 41% from beyond the arc and 89% from the line. I buy the shot in a major way, and while he may not be one of the greatest wing shooting prospects of all time like AJ Griffin last year, the math is similar. High school age freshmen who are shooters in Power 5 conference are a pretty easy bet to shoot it in the league.

That projection is buoyed by his general competence as an off-ball wing. He is a sound cutter who reads the floor well and knows where to be while being a lights out shooter off the catch. He isn’t much of a shooter off heavy movement, but his ability to relocate, cut and make quick decisions should translate to an easy on-court fit early in his career. Coupled with his defensive awareness, strong frame, quick hands and business-like attitude, Dariq should be able to provide value to a team even as a teenager. 

That ease of fit is a big part of the upside. When searching for outlier development, there is a recurring theme of early minutes and continued growth. There are certainly question marks in Dariq’s game from handle creativity to rim pressure, but (given a medical green light) the minutes should be there. His quality as a complementary piece should buoy his early career impact, and in turn provide the kind of repetition and success needed to fuel a shooting star. 

Dariq has the kind of pedigree and shotmaking chops needed to make that an appealing bet. A single college season is hardly a conclusive sample size. Sometimes you have to play the odds if you want to win big. 

Dariq Whitehead’s rocky freshman campaign was clearly hampered by his slew of lower body injuries over the past 8 months. The Dariq we saw at Duke was unrecognizable from the versatile wing creator who produced in the tough NIBC at Montverde a year prior. He’s been reduced to a spot up role on offense, with all of his off-the-dribble statistical indicators pointing downwards (40% on 2s, 51% at the rim, and only 1 FTA a game). Dariq seems to have regained some of his first step-juice over the course of the season, but overall he still looks like a shell of his former self athletically. 

Another reason why I’m lower on Dariq is that he was far from a technically refined advantage creator even before his injury issues. Going into the year, the foundation of Whitehead’s appeal was his age + shooting + frame combination. His off-the-dribble traits were workable but certainly not elite, as he struggled with his handle and ability to generate finishing angles at Montverde. These deficiencies are nitpicks for 17 year old wings, but along with the lost development time of this season (Dariq isn’t getting to experiment with his handle or finishing craft much due to role), I’m worried that he could fall somewhat behind the curve as a ballhandler. The odds of Whitehead hitting a nuclear outcome as a high-volume NBA creator have dropped significantly in my eyes, but I still like him as a versatile wing bet with a trustable shot (#22 on my board). 

Jett Howard may very well be my favorite prospect to watch in this entire class. His combination of size, movement skill and shot-making is, but all accounts, my cup of tea. There are very few prospects in recent memory that can combine Jett’s positional size and shot diet, and his success this year has been nothing short of astounding.

Yes, the rim volume is incredibly low. Yes, the rebounding numbers are reminiscent of Tyler Ulis, and advanced statistics do him no favors defensively. Those are all very real concerns, but man, I just don’t think I care. 

His overall defensive projection is certainly a question, but one I struggle to weigh too heavily. Jett is a talented offensive player with an incredibly malleable skillset. Those are the kinds of players that see the court even despite their defensive woes. Jett is not an irredeemable defensive prospect as he has shown signs of protecting the rim and sticking with shooters on the perimeter, it will just require a bit of creative thinking. 

Jett is a flamethrower both off movement and off the bounce at a legit 6’8”. That just doesn’t come around often, and the value of that skillset is immense. There is no clear analogue for Jett – Jayson Tatum was another tier of athlete, Michael Porter was somehow bigger AND more polished, Brandon Ingram was still able to get to the rim – and that can be disheartening. The closest thing may be Cam Reddish, a thought that made at least two fanbases shudder. 

There is one important distinction, however, which is that Jett has actually been really good this year. So many potential wing shot creators enter the league with their actual shot acting as their biggest question mark and as a result, their potential floor can be frightening. 

Jett does not have any of those problems. He does not have the kind of athletic package others have had before him, but the certainty of his shot in the league couldn’t be much higher. His ability to get shots up at volume off heavy movement makes him that much more difficult to be defined, and his shotmaking bag off the dribble all the more viable as a true weapon. 

This draft has a plethora of forwards who have a premier shooting skill and Jett Howard is near the top of that group. Shooting 37% from three on over 200 attempts while at Michigan, Howard has proven that he is a capable shooter who defenders have to close out to and if not, he will make them pay. He has also shown a bit of a midrange game that is still being explored but with his touch beyond the arc, it’s safe to say his midrange goes in at a decent clip as well. The question for Howard, though, is “outside of the three point shot and some midrange ability sprinkled in there, what other area does he excel in?”

The athleticism is the place to start for this conversation because it limits him a lot when trying to make moves off-the-dribble. The lack of real explosiveness can be shown by him only having six dunks on the year which is just not what you would expect from a 6’8’’ forward. The limited burst off-the-dribble is also very evident as he is forced into heavily contested shots or just a pass out of a failed driving attempt because he couldn’t shake his defender. This huge part of the game can limit his ceiling as far as being a creator when he can’t create that much of an advantage or get to easy shots without a pick being set on his defender. 

Another area I’m cornered about for Howard is his subpar defense. Howard possesses tools to at least be an average defender, but the lack of effort on that end can be jarring sometimes. He does not have good technique when defending on the ball, and gets beat straight off the dribble consistently, sometimes becoming a target for opposing teams to go after. He also doesn’t have the strength to match with bigger players or to absorb contact down low. From a stats perspective, across the board he has super low percentages in steals (0.8%), blocks (2.1%), and rebounding (5.0%) for someone his size. The lack of technique, versatility, and just care on the defensive end will limit his time on the court if he doesn’t address those areas appropriately.

Imagine a player with the size of a linebacker and the footwork of a figure skater. 

It is so important to preface this piece with a discussion of the sheer unconventionality of Brice Sensabaugh. At 6’6 and 235 pounds, he’s more tight end than off guard, and fascinatingly enough, his offense is an equal mix of footwork and touch. In fact, one of Brice’s biggest statistical red flags is his poor rim rate. Only 90 of his 400 shot attempts came at the rim, with a measly 57% conversion rate. While there are certainly concerns about the quality of his finishing looks, let’s not miss the forest for the trees. I choose to see his scoring profile in a more optimistic light- Brice does not leverage his athletic tools nearly enough for my liking, but this seems like relatively low hanging fruit in context of some of the improvements that his peers must make.

Brice is one of the best shooters in the class, with versatility both inside and outside the arc. He’s probably the best midrange shooter in the class, with an insane 49% FG on over 170 long 2 attempts, per BartTorvik. I’d try to give context but there really isn’t any precedent for a high major freshman coming close to that kind of midrange efficiency, especially considering his miniscule 18% assisted rate on those shots. Brice is a high octane 3P shooter as well, making 40% of his threes despite shooting nearly 11 threes per 100 possessions. His touch is only further evinced by his 83% FT and 94th percentile mark on C&S attempts, per Synergy.

Brice’s touch is historic, as we’ve really never seen this combination of unassisted pull-up efficiency and volume from both inside and outside the arc. It’s impossible to emphasize enough that one of the best shooting prospects of the last decade is also one of the most unique athletes to enter the draft. The requisite footwork and decelerative ability to stun one’s defender and suddenly rise for a jumper is intuitively much harder at Brice’s size, yet he manages to hit multiple contested pull-ups per game with ease. At this volume and usage (32.3%), it’s hard to attribute this phenomenon to variance or small sample size.

Finally, note that the argument for Brice is not solely based in archetypal rarity. He grades very well in a variety of productivity metrics, with a 4 PRPG and 7.5 BPM (both third among freshman). More impressively, he averaged 16 points on 56% eFG despite an enormous usage. 

Let’s close with a search of every high major freshman or sophomore who had 30% usage, 53% eFG, and shot 7 threes per 100 possessions. (Brice is a freshman with 32% usage and 56 eFG%, and he shot 11 threes per 100)

The only players who managed to hit this benchmark were sophomore James Harden and freshman Markelle Fultz. 

Brice is a historically good scorer with impressive productivity, elite shooting splits from all over the court, and outlier strength and size. This is a truly unique combination of skills with an unfathomable ceiling, and I believe such a player should not slip out of the lottery.

Wait a second, I am the lowest on Brice? I love Ice Brice, how could this be?

There are few players in this class that fill me with joy like Brice Sensabaugh. The shotmaking is truly a sight to behold, and his improvement throughout the year in utilizing his strength has been noteworthy. I really like Brice and in most classes would have him near the lottery range, but this class has provided some difficulty in squeezing in all the players I like.

The primary worry for Brice would be his microscopic margin for error. He is not some slow-footed lumberer, despite your initial impression, but he is not someone that is creating large advantages rather than dominating the small advantages he can create.

If Brice does not have quite the same level of shotmaking juice in the league, the role he plays on a competitive team feels a little murky. He will provide plus spacing with his shot and should have no issue attacking closeouts, but the rest of his complementary skill package is a little sparse. There were flashes of connective passing, but not without bouts of tunnel vision. It is hard to say any shot Brice took this year was a bad shot, but that did come at the expense of better shots more often than I would like.

More than anything, the defensive end does feel like a real sticking point. With a shorter frame, smaller wingspan and lack of vertical explosion it is hard to see Sensabaugh surviving as a four at the next level despite his rebounding. His foot speed and inability to contest shots on the perimeter gives real cause for concern and his team defense is rarely impactful. 

The outcomes where Sensabaugh reaches a median outcome more often than not result in a bench spark plug, and probably an incredibly effective one at that. How valuable is that in a class chalk-full of potential high leverage two-way starters? More importantly, how good will the offense need to be to make up for it?

Few players have seen the consensus around them change so drastically in a year like Leonard Miller. A young late 2022 draft candidate, Miller attended the NBA Combine last season, where he looked lost and immature on the court. His struggles made many change their opinions on him from a young player with high potential, to a young player who is extremely raw.

Miller went to G League Ignite for the 2022-23 season where he has been proving that the former is still very much true. He is averaging 18 points and 11 rebounds through the G League regular season, and only getting hotter. Miller has had two 30 point games in the last two weeks, and 11 double doubles in the last 12 games. He has been a major contributor in the absence of Scoot Henderson and continues to put GLI on his back. His performance has emerged to be one of the best seasons for a GLI prospect, and becoming one of the most dominant players in the G League right now. His growth offensively, creating for himself and playing in multiple positions, while also finding ways to be impactful on defense and on the boards, reignites the promise many saw from Miller heading into the 2022 combine.

Add onto the fact that just a few years ago Miller was 6’4”, and that he is ambidextrous, and there’s only more to love about the young Canadian. His form is low, releasing below the chin, however before his growth spurt, Leonard released a bit higher, around the face. I would like to assume that a part of his form being what it is is attributed to growing 7 inches over the course of two years. Still, even without being aesthetically pleasing, he has managed to be decently effective spreading the floor. 

A late bloomer, ambidextrous, 6’11” with good touch, ball skills and a versatile defender. Dominating a pro league at just 19 years old. Sign me up wherever he is available.

Leonard Miller is one of the most interesting prospects in the draft and has a real case to be the poster child for that group. One thing Miller is always going to bring is his production. Playing for the G-League Ignite, he’s averaging 17.8 points and 10.9 rebounds per game on solid efficiency too with an impressive 63.9% true shooting percentage. But the question for Miller is, “how does all of this translate to the next level?”

In the NBA, teams are usually looking for two things in the power forward position—shooting and/or defensive versatility. So another question to pose is, “how does Leonard Miller fit in these parameters?” Let’s look at shooting. Miller is shooting 31.3% from three on only 2.2 attempts per game with his highest number of three point attempts in a single game being only 4. He possesses a very unorthodox shot that does go in sometimes but overall, questions remain on how that shot will work in the league. First, because of the super low release point, but second, he sometimes can take a while to get the shot off and at times looks unsure of himself when taking it. The inside scoring is great but can he be an effective and confident volume shooter at the NBA level? Most of Miller’s production comes from the interior where he has great touch but also shows more times than not that he’s a below the rim finisher if not given a clean runway to the hoop. A selling point on Leonard is his unique ball-handling and driving ability at his size but what comes with that is his super narrow tunnel vision when driving. Miller has 32 turnovers to only 31 assists on the season and has a bad tendency to drive into traffic without a real plan which can look really bad, to be frank. 

The defensive versatility is another thing with Miller in that he can’t be trusted to slide up and down the lineup defensively. Guarding smaller players, he’s just a bit too slow to be guarding perimeter players full-time, and doesn’t quite have the defensive instincts needed to be a primary PnR defender and rim protector. Miller does show effort and is an active participant on that end but with his non-ideal positioning, timing, and slow feet, he ends up just being really limited defensively.

Tough shot maker and an in-your-face defender, Keyonte George brings everything a team could want in a two-guard. The 6’4” guard out of IMG Academy and Baylor has had a great freshman season, averaging 18 points a game. While relatively inefficient, George’s shot attempts had an incredible degree of difficulty, with the majority of his attempts being self-created, and did a great job of creating space and getting to his spots. 

George is a consistent threat from deep, which his 34.9% three point percentage doesn’t give credit to. George was great on short threes, shooting at a 38.4% clip on 3s shorter than 25 feet, but had free reign at Baylor to let loose from deep, shooting just 31% on deep 3s on 111 attempts. This is something that I don’t think needs to be worried about at the next level, especially early on where he will likely play off another guard or two. Having him stick closer to the line will see that percentage be more than adequate, and with his ability to attack closeouts and attack in space, he should only be able to punish defenses more.

George’s defense also stands out, and mixed with his offensive prowess and budding passing game, I believe he can be one of the more impactful guards right out the gate. His strong frame and the energy he plays with on the court should give him no problem staying in front of bigger and shiftier guards once the game slows down, and I think any team that picks Keyonte George will have a matchup nightmare on their hands for years to come. 

There’s no question that Keyonte George will have a long NBA career, but I struggle to see him hitting a high-end outcome worthy of a lottery pick. Drafting shooting guards with sub-elite tools in the lotto is a slippery slope, and George certainly falls into that category. He’s 6’3” in shoes, with average burst and vertical pop. George’s wide base and lower body strength is his best athletic trait (he has flashes of incredible contact balance), but that didn’t translate to elite rim finishing at Baylor (60% at the rim). What’s even more concerning is that he rarely got to the cup, with only 60 rim attempts out of 393 total field goal attempts. His college shot profile points to George struggling to generate easy buckets in the NBA, which is a tough proposition for a player without an elite shooting track record (35% from 3, 79% from the line, 34% on non-rim 2s). 

A helpful benchmark that I use to evaluate small guards is whether or not they have two elite skills. It seems to work as a solid differentiator between great college guards and those who can stick around in the league. The margins for these players are rail-thin, and providing elite impact in one area is rarely enough to be a playoff rotation player. Some examples of this idea are Immanuel Quickley (shooting + defense), TJ McConnell (defense + passing), and even fringier guys like Ish Smith (rim pressure + passing). I can get behind George as a useful pullup shooter, but I struggle to see any of his passing, rim pressure, or defensive impact reaching a high enough threshold to reach that two-skill benchmark. I see him as more of a PnR scoring bench creator in the NBA than the offensive fulcrum that those willing to draft him in the top-8 are surely expecting.

As the league has modernized and the balance of power has shifted to perimeter shotmakers, the big man has fallen from his perch as the ruler of the league. Big men have seen their value fall off a cliff in terms of their relative draft placements, but the impact come playoff time has remained high. The issue is, rather, what skills bigs need to have in order to succeed.

To oversimplify an incredibly nuanced and complicated thing, the modern big needs to have a baseline level of mobility, rim protection and rebounding in order to succeed. The athletic requirements are higher than they were before, but their required impact remains very similar – own the paint and don’t get cooked in ball screens.

Lively’s timing and overall impact as a rim protector at his age is an outlier and his movement skills in space easily clear the hurdle of “playability” in the league. He is not the most powerful or overwhelming athlete at his position, but his length, anticipation and quickness allow for him to remain incredibly impactful as a defensive big. 

The offense has to come around. He is a viable lob threat with a great catch radius, but his non-dunk scoring in the half court is certainly a sticking point. The jumper and contact balance around the rim are a work in progress, but he reads the floor well as a passer and makes quick reads finding teammates. If the finishing can come around, he should have a diverse offensive attack as a roll man. 

That isn’t the kind of offensive profile you look for when hunting for upside, but big men butter their bread on the other end of the floor. Lively is one of the most impactful teenage bigs in recent memory as a shot blocker and rebounder. 

It is easy to dismiss defensive-minded bigs as replaceable, and to a degree that is true. It is easy to find replacement-level bigs to fill in minutes during the regular season. On the flip side, it is incredibly difficult to find bigs with playoff-durable defense. You’re lucky if a draft has more than one. Every team needs effective defensive minutes from their bigs come playoff time, and those players aren’t as easy to find as it seems. 

Dereck Lively was ranked the #1 player out of the 2022 High School class, which may have been an egregious mistake. The young big really struggled out of the gate to be impactful on the floor, often looking lost on both ends of the floor though has come around to becoming a good player for the ACC champ over recent weeks. Lively is a great shot blocker and finishes strong at the rim, however, the issue with him is how little he brings to the court outside of that. 

With the NBA becoming more and more of a big man’s game, bigs need to be able to do more than just rim run, and those that just rim run must be elite at it and have extra folds to their game (like short roll passing or being able to guard the perimeter). This just isn’t the case for Lively, and while it is nice to have a rim-to-rim big in the NBA on roster, and relatively easy for them to be of use early, I simply look for more in a prospect than what Lively brings to the court. 

While he may be a top 30 player in talent, he is not a top 30 player I would take to build my roster, especially with more versatile bigs still on the board. If he can keep up the current trend through the March Madness tournament and into his workouts, this could very well change, but based on his early and mid-season play (as well as his HS tape, which in my opinion wasn’t nearly impressive enough to warrant #1, let alone top 5), Lively sits just inside my top 40 players in the 2023 class.

GG Jackson, a former top recruit in the 2023 high school recruiting class, decided to re-classify up into the 2022 class to enroll early at the University of South Carolina. If GG Jackson were born about two weeks later than he was, he would not be eligible to enter this year’s NBA draft due to him being too young to enter the league. Jackson is the youngest player in this draft class by a wide margin, as he will not even turn 19 until he is about 25 games into his rookie season. 

As you may expect with an extremely young player jumping up to the college level, Jackson had some struggles in his senior season. Despite these struggles, he still was able to showcase all of the traits that make me believe he is deserving of being a lottery pick. His fluidity for a 6’9” forward is rare, which allows him to comfortably create shots at all three levels. He was able to shoot 60% at the rim despite 62.7% of his looks being unassisted, which is a testament to his ability to generate his own offense. The mid-range shot was not falling at a high rate this year, though I believe that this will be something that steadily improves for him due to his shooting mechanics, precise touch, and footwork to create separation. Also, his three point shot fell at only a slightly below average rate despite a chunk of these attempts being self-created.

I believe that GG Jackson will thrive in NBA spacing, as South Carolina’s spacing was horrid at times this year. Playing off of an elite advantage creator will also help Jackson a lot, as he will be able to attack tilted defenses more frequently. I view Jackson as one of the best long-term scorers in this draft class, and he is going to have more time to develop than others due to his historically young age.

Gregory “GG” Jackson arrived at South Carolina University at only 17 years old and oozing of tools to be an interesting NBA prospect. Things didn’t start off so well for GG. 

The team was not constructed well, so GG was their primary shot creator. Yes, when you have as much usage as he’s had this season there will be times you will see some very interesting things like the ability to handle the ball with so much control as a 17 year old. But I worry about the shot selection, the mindset of only wanting to score from the perimeter, and overall decision-making. 

GG has the ball control when handling the ball on a straight line drive, but the moment there is a dig or someone forcing him to make a sudden move it’s usually followed by a pickup and looking to pass. I do think this is partially due to the bad team leading to bad spacing, but there were also times where he just couldn’t get to where he wanted to be. I will say that the dribble pull ups coming off ball screens is enticing. He has really wonderful footwork for his size, clean shooting form, and passing flashes are there at times. 

GG’s defense has its moments where you see him sliding over as the low man for a block, or sliding over in help to wall up and help cut off a drive. But the motor is what worries me on the defensive side for him. He can get lost off-ball at times to allow back cuts, and on the defensive glass, doesn’t consistently box out, allowing ]the offense to slide in front of him. 

I do see the potential for GG as a prospect, but my concern is: the youth is great for an organization, but also can you trust him to give everything he’s got in his tank. South Carolina was pretty bad this season, so what happens if he gets drafted in the lottery to a team that doesn’t expect to win many games? Will he buy in? 

Brandin Podziemski is one of the most unorthodox guard prospects in recent history. For one, he has 95th+ percentile advantage maintenance ability but a relatively poor advantage creation. The pitch for Podziemski is essentially that his shooting goodness, superb ancillary savviness and extreme productivity make it likely for him to find a niche in the NBA. With a 5.4 PRPG and 10.8 BPM, Podz joins 16 former college basketball players who hit 5 PRPG and 10 BPM in their sophomore year. Fifteen of those 16 players were lottery picks.

Podziemski is not the flashiest player, and his limited advantage creation ability can be a philosophical turn-off for some. Podz also appears to have limited tools, with subpar core strength, somewhat short arms, and limited verticality off two feet. He does miss some floaters and step backs quite badly, which is also entirely due to poor core strength to compensate for a limited loading phase before the pull up.

And yet, Podziemski is such a functional athlete. For instance, his dunks (7/9), finishing numbers (72/118, 61%) and stock rates (1.3 block%, 2.9 steal%) do not hint at any sort of athletic hindrances. More importantly, with a 5.6% offensive rebounding percentage and 21% defensive rebounding percentage, Podz is genuinely one of the best guard rebounders in the nation. He’s functionally strong, able to hold back or box-out defenders with his off arm. What makes Podz’s rebounding so special is that he primarily operates on the perimeter – he quickly diagnoses a potential brick and can optimally position himself to rebound and extend the play. 

This advantage maintenance ability is especially apparent on-ball. Podz is not a particularly complex playmaker, but his speed of diagnosis is criminally fast: he consistently makes good decisions out of dynamic shifts in the ecosystem around him. He has a functional enough handle to create slight advantages especially out of the PNR, and when teams trap him his strength to hold off defenders allows him to quickly pinpoint the highest-EV decision. Furthermore, Podz is an extremely accurate passer, making clean deliveries and largely being anti-turnover (13.6% TO). Some concern with midmajor prospects is that the speed of the NBA could be overwhelming, but Podz confidently translates as a well above positive processor in the league.

Finally, Podziemski’s touch is truly otherworldly. He consistently throws up floaters that are certainly the bane of his coach’s existence, yet somehow go in. And despite the swarming coverage he receives every game, he hit a whopping 44% of his 3’s on 9 3PA/100. Even more impressively, only 57% of these makes were assisted. For context, Brandon Miller and Gradey Dick are at ~80% assisted while shooting 40% from three. Podziemski is a remarkable pull-up shooter in the midrange as well, shooting 44% on a healthy dose (only 22% assisted). Podz has a left-handed release with an ephemeral follow through that makes it somewhat aesthetically displeasing, but nonetheless he is almost certainly the most prominent pull-up shooter in the class.

Underclassmen with immense productivity and untraditional athletic/creation profiles often end up severely underrated. With his combination of outlier touch, elite decision-making, and adequate functional athleticism, Brandin Podziemski has a high enough floor to potentially find a long-term niche in the league.

After playing just over four minutes per game at Illinois in his freshman season, Brandin Podziemski decided to transfer to Santa Clara where he had a huge breakout sophomore campaign. Podziemski’s touch from floater range, the mid-range, and three point range is extremely impressive and his ability to knock down shots consistently from these ranges have led to him finding his way into top 40 talks in this draft.

Despite Podziemski’s elite touch from intermediate and deep range, I have questions about his ability to consistently pressure the rim and create advantages. If Podziemski is not going to be able to create many advantages in one-on-one situations, I have doubts about his ability to be a real lead guard in many NBA lineups. If he is playing into more of an off-guard role, I believe this takes away some of his best passing traits. He is solid at scanning the floor in the pick and roll, though I think he often makes things more difficult than they need to be. This is likely a reps-based issue, as he has shown the instinct to make plays happen. 

I also have major questions about his on ball defense, as I am not certain that he is laterally quick enough to guard many guards. He also may be too small to guard most wings, and I am not sure he will really play up in size all that much (though he is fairly strong which is important for guarding wings). I believe that Podziemski is worthy of being a late draft pick, though I am higher on other prospects in his range overall.

Almost every NBA team these days is looking for a lengthy wing that can shoot it and Maxwell Lewis is just the perfect guy for that. Standing at 6’7 with a 6’10 wingspan, Lewis offers length on the wing that is so desirable in the modern NBA. But along with that frame is a nice game where Lewis brings shooting, creation, and secondary playmaking. 

Although he shot just 34.8% from three this season, I am a firm believer in Lewis’ shot long term. He shot 36% from three last season and a very solid 79% from the line on 170 attempts throughout his Pepperdine career, so signs of touch in his shot are there. He is also a versatile shooter in that he can perform an array of moves to shoot off the dribble, can hit spot ups, and can do some off-ball movement shooting although that can still be worked on. The shot selection in a new increased role this season with more defensive attention on him can also be a reason for his slight decline in percentage. 

Lewis’ burst off the dribble isn’t anything to write home about, but the angles and stride lengths he uses give him the edge over defenders when they least expect it. Lewis takes long steps all over the court which is how he can generate rim attempts even when he isn’t the most explosive athlete. And even though he isn’t explosive, he still has 21 dunks on the year which is solid for just a skinny, three-point shooting wing. This deceptive but effective athleticism can be used in a secondary playmaking/creation role where he can attack closeouts with real pace and has shown he can finish through traffic with either hand. The playmaking does have to develop to be in that premier secondary role but I think if he just slows down and reads the game more, the passing will eventually come. Lewis can also do a bit of creation from the perimeter getting to the rim, creating space for a three point shot or taking the space in the midrange. 

Overall, Max Lewis has a versatile skill set on the offensive side of the ball with plenty of room to grow in key areas. 

Betting against Max Lewis ignores a favorite quick and easy heuristic of mine: to target players with clear offensive skill, wing size, and are able to navigate through tight spaces quickly with a good first step and stride length. That combination of factors screams star potential on its own, which will keep Lewis from falling past 20 for me, though I initially had plans for him top 10. 

What’s going on with Maxwell Lewis? He has all the tools to be an elite scorer in the NBA as shown by his good efficiency on a very difficult shot diet. Max picks up on where to find open space in the half-court especially well on catches to drive, making him primed for an off-ball scoring role. But his low release, mediocre passing instincts and tendency to fade into the background are all concerning for a player without an elite defensive projection, at least in the lottery. 

Perhaps most damning to Lewis’ lotto cause is his 1.4% steal rate, reflecting his poor defensive instincts but also lack of consistent intensity on the court. The latter also shows up in his wildly inconsistent production, putting up superb stat lines like the budding star you expect before going cold for weeks (he went a five game streak down the stretch of 2 for 21 three point shooting and a 0.8 assist-to-turnover ratio, for example). In fact, hoop-explorer.com’s metrics show his team had a -1.6 net rating with him on the court compared to +2.6 when off, as Pepperdine’s lack of team success is yet another red flag for the sophomore.

Max is type of player who proves your wrong as quickly as he proves you right, as there is truly a chance that it all clicks when he finds a scoring-centric role early in his NBA career. Many of the issues keeping him from his ceiling, however, do appear interlinked as indicating the game hasn’t quite clicked for Max yet outside of his self-creation. I still think there is a good chance he becomes a star, but the downside compared to the rest in the late lottery is quite unfavorable.

Michigan’s Kobe Bufkin has gone from unreliable bench player as a freshman to primary perimeter creator by the end of his second season. His usage rate rose from 17% in few minutes to 22% in big minutes while true shooting from 48% to 57%, taking full advantage of his new opportunity. In fact, I think there may be even more latent potential from Bufkin on the offensive end, as Michigan’s slow grind, post-hub driven system (middle of the pack in pace but top 20 in post ups as share of plays) is not a great match for his flowy, drive-first, transition-friendly game. His touch is outstanding, shooting nearly 70% at the rim despite only one of four of those makes being assisted. As I write this I worry more about underestimating  his talent as a driver, even if his usage thus far has been more in catch and shoot and pick and roll reps. Michigan being unwilling to let players hold the ball could be masking some of that upside, especially compared to his pre-college tape. 

Bufkin has tools all over the court, with the only clear day 1 weakness on an NBA court being in the strength department. That could lead to some targeting on the defensive end, but Bufkin has found plenty of ways to contribute in spite of this despite the lack. He is the only high major freshman or sophomore to chip in at an above average rate for assists, rebounds, steals, blocks, shooting efficiency and three point volume. Needless to say, that’s an extremely friendly historical precedent, and joins the likes of Paul George and Ja Morant among mid-major players, Tyrese Haliburton, James Harden, Lonzo Ball, Franz Wagner, Cade Cunningham, Otto Porter and Markelle Fultz to meet these thresholds before him. This is a first round bet who has a legitimate chance at the top 20 for me by the time of draft.

The thresholds for guards to stick in the league rise higher and higher in the age of ball handling wings and bigs who can shoot pull-ups. More than ever, guards need to be able to create advantages and be able to generate points without excess reliance on teammate creation. This advantage creation often comes in a variety of ways, but the most common means of adv creation often comes from a combination of strength, pull up shooting, and passing goodness. Take James Harden, for instance. He uses his bulk to garner a baseline of shots at the rim, allowing him to make his signature kick out passes out of drives. And, of course, he’s able to parlay his driving strengths by virtue of the sheer shooting gravity that his pull-up three commands. 

This paradigm applies to most forms of self creation. At the highest echelon of guard play, there is a reliance on pull-up shooting with a strong handle to maximize the quality of scoring looks per possession. Players like Bradley Beal, Devin Booker, Donovan Mitchell, and even Anthony Edwards were extremely high volume pull-up shooters in college, and they’ve continued to evolve into elite off-the-dribble scorers in the league. Others are still immensely good pull-up shooters but also parlay the threat of their passing to expand the quality and branching of the decision trees available for any given possession (see Haliburton). 

Kobe Bufkin has a very strong statistical profile. With a birthday after some prominent freshman prospects, he combines youth, touch indicators, impressive finishing numbers, and solid baselines of unassisted rate for shots all over the court. Yet, he seems to lack avenues to meaningful self-creation reps in the league, especially in context of this paradigm that we’ve developed.

Bufkin may have a relatively high unassisted rate inside the arc, but it doesn’t seem like he’s truly creating advantages at any sort of requisite level. He’s not a particularly complex passer, with most of his passes being simple passes to the perimeter (17% assist rate). He comes off Miami action or other variations of DHO for a large number of his downhill drives and midrange pull-up attempts. So much of his offense is based on screens or hesitation moves out of straight line drives- he’s far more reliant on his decelerative pull-up sequence rather than any sort of sound handle cadence. He largely uses the head of steam from straight line drives to generate enough momentum on finishes to punish slower drop defenders, but the actual consistency of his finishing angles is much lower than his finishing numbers would suggest. This likely plays a part in his very low free throw rate despite his decent rim volume/percentages.

More concerning, however, is Bufkin’s hesitation from beyond the arc. Shooting only 6.4 3P/100, Bufkin has strikingly low three point volume, especially for a guard with feasible self creation potential. He has the touch indicators, with an impressive 85% FT on the season, but the limited shooting volume is somewhat concerning for someone in their second year of college basketball. His release is also quite slow, and it’s susceptible to being blocked even during an unguarded C&S (see overtime vs Wisconsin). A low volume of three-point shots has frequently served as an underlying sign of a challenging transition to the league; for instance, Johnny Davis and Killian Hayes appeared uneasy shooting from NBA range in the early stages of their careers after attempting relatively few three-pointers in their pre-draft season.

Without any hints of a strong handle, high pull-up volume, strength, or passing goodness, it’s difficult to ascertain Bufkin’s true upside. He could easily find a niche in the league, especially given his defensive acumen, but his offensive profile gives me pause regardless of the goodness of his self creation numbers at the moment. Bufkin will ultimately be an important inflection point in finding false positives among statistical profiles- perhaps he overcomes these initial worries to develop as a strong self creator in spite of his implied developmental arc.

A 6’8” do-it-all wing, there is little to not like about G League Ignite’s Frenchman Sidy Cissoko. A member of the French U18 team last year alongside fellow draft hopeful Rayan Rupert, Cissoko has blossomed in the last year to more than just a connective guard, now a player who can attack the rim and add a ton of versatility defensively. 

Cissoko’s longest strides this year have been defensively, however his offensive game has also done well in the Ignite system. Playing as a big guard, Cissoko is able to attack the rim and generate space for GLI’s shooters as well as scorers like Leonard Miller and Cameron Young. Coach Jason Hart once said Cissoko was the best passer on the team, high praise considering the team also has point guards Scoot Henderson and London Johnson on roster. Being able to spread the floor with his shooting, facilitate at a high level and attack the rim at 6’8” opens up a lot of possibilities in role and playstyle for Cissoko moving forward.

His added strength has turned him into GLI’s most consistent defender, and he’s been a staple in the team’s starting lineup night in and night out since the start of the season. His foot speed and athleticism have translated to the G League level, and playing on a team that has him connect and attack will benefit him greatly at the NBA. Cissoko’s growth with Ignite has been fantastic, and it is hard to doubt the track record of GLI when it comes to improving first round talent. Cissoko is next in a long line of GLI wings who can make an impact in the NBA.

Sidy Cissoko is really an intriguing prospect. He stands at 6 ‘7-8  talented passer and play-maker who sees the floor well and has natural passing instincts. Looks very in control with the ball in his hands and does a good job of running an offense although still has work to do in understanding the game, developing his ball handling and decision making.

Sidy Is far from a polished outside shooter and has a lot of work to do to become consistent from outside. Sidy isn’t  a primary scorer type. He also isn’t a great athlete and lacks really good burst. This is where I grow to wonder how much I can buy into him as a high level prospect. I think he has all the tools to be a good rotation player in the league, but can he take advantage of the advantages that he has potential to create? I can’t bet on Sidy Cissoko so high because I don’t buy him as a point forward in the NBA. 

Sidy isn’t someone I would take in the lottery. I know his age makes him intriguing  there and that buys an organization time to see what he is, but I think there are  other prospects in this draft that I would feel more comfortable taking in his projected top-20 range. 

Jalen Hood-Schifino has been a bit ahead of schedule all season. The 6’6’’ point guard wasn’t mocked as a first round pick coming into the season but has exceeded expectations with some even moving him up as far as the lottery. His shotmaking talent at his size is the reason so many have been infatuated with his game.

Hood-Schifino’s midrange is his #1 selling point. If the opposing big is in a drop, it is Jalen’s preferred move to go to the midrange pull-up and he is effective at it, shooting 42% on non at-the-rim 2’s. He can go hot and cold from the midrange but when he’s on, he can single-handedly win you games, such as when he lit up the #5 team at the time, Purdue, on their home court for 35 points on 65% true shooting. With their big man, Zach Edey, staying back near the rim all game, Hood-Schifino ate up that space given to him in the midrange where he scored most of his points. He can also extend that midrange to the three although this area is still under question. Shooting 35% from three on the year on only around 3 attempts per game, Hood-Schifino will have to prove he can turn his three ball to a legit weapon in his arsenal but just like the midrange, when he’s on … he’s on. He can shoot from a variety of ways, whether it’s relocation, off-the-dribble, handling PnR, and with NBA range as well.

The defense of his is also something to be enamored by, though there is room to grow in this area as well. When defending the ball, Hood-Schifino has the ability to be in the group of best point of attack defenders in the class. With his 6’6’’ frame and agile feet, he hounds guards with some of the best screen navigation in the class, dodging picks with ease. But that can be on or off. If Hood-Schifino can put all of his various talents together, the upside is through the roof. All he needs is a good developmental situation in the NBA to achieve that.

Jalen Hood-Schifino has a unique base of skills to build upon, but his profile contains a number of red flags that suggest a higher likelihood of future challenges that could impact his development.

Hood-Schifino’s general productivity numbers are somewhat poor. He has a negative box plus minus and below-average offensive rating. Only 11 players have ever been drafted with a career box plus minus under 1. While none of them have experienced optimal NBA success, there are some potentially positive cases among recent draft picks (i.e. McGowens, Max Christie, Blake Wesley, Ziaire Williams). 

However, JHS also has some shooting versatility issues. While he is perhaps the best midrange shooter in this draft, JHS clearly prefers the midrange to shooting threes, with only 34 made threes on the season. Low three point volume has often been an underlying indicator of difficult transition to the league, with recent players such as Johnny Davis and Killian Hayes seeming uncomfortable from NBA range early on after relatively low three-point volume in their pre-draft season.

More concerning is JHS’s relatively dysfunctional athletic profile. He rarely gets to the rim, with a free throw rate in the low 20s and 71 total attempts at the rim. Further, he struggles to generate enough force to explode past the initial line of defense, contributing to difficult finishing angles and limited efficiency around the rim (54%). His lackluster block (0.8%), steal (1.5%) and offensive rebounding (1.4%) numbers are especially low in context of his length and frame.

While a poor athletic profile and outlier-low productivity may singularly be overcome, especially among young prospects, there is virtually no precedent for a player to overcome both obstacles, especially in context of his limited perimeter shotmaking. Furthermore, Hood-Schifino is relatively old for his class, with a June 2003 birthday. The combination of low three point volume, low productivity, and limited explosiveness with a sophomore birthday has very little precedent among guard prospects.

Still, there’s reason for optimism. Hood-Schifino is an impressive playmaker and an extremely talented mid range shooter. Should he be able to expand his range and become an outlier-ish pull up shooter from all over the court, JHS may be able to overcome his weaknesses to deliver value as a connector/facilitatory piece for NBA teams. He has an interesting combination of skills with some outlier abilities that NBA teams should still consider taking on as a developmental project.

There are some traits that get a young player minutes very early, regardless of how developed his game is. Two important ones are wing defense and elite shooting. Jordan Hawkins is one of those 3&D prototype players that I believe can impact an NBA team on day one. 

While he struggles to be effective off the dribble, Hawkins is an elite catch & shoot threat, scoring 1.21 points per possession catch and shoot attempts. Hawkins is great shooting off movement, and has incredible shot prep, being able to get shots off quickly off any motion. 

While his lack of on-ball creativity hinders him a bit, I see him being able to impact the floor immediately, spreading the floor and playing hard defensively. He is a good shot blocker for a guard, and regularly finds himself in passing lanes. I can see Hawkins becoming a staple 3&D player, and even as an off-ball guy, that is still extremely valuable in today’s NBA.

Jordan Hawkins is one of the most projectable shooters off the catch in this class. He is lights-out when spotting up beyond the arc with the ability to take (and make) very difficult shots off movement. His 37% mark from distance is nice, but getting up 15 threes per 100 possessions is astounding. Add in an 88% mark from the line and you have all the makings of a plug-and-play off-ball shooter.

In order for that archetype to provide genuine playoff impact, either the movement shooting has to become overwhelming or the defense needs to be solid. While I don’t hate Hawkins’ defensive tape, there are some real concerns that leave me hesitant. He is a quick athlete but his lack of strength is apparent defending drives or attacking the glass. He can struggle to stay in front of smaller guards but gets moved by bigger wings. He does a good job chasing shooters around on the perimeter, but that is not enough on its own to provide tangible defensive value.

His defense may improve as he adds strength and settles into a role in the league, but I do have some concerns about that likelihood. Regardless he will be a very good shooter in the league that should be able to fit on any roster and should get a guaranteed deal on draft night. That skillset is worth investing in, it is just dependent on the price. 

Jordan Walsh pairs ideal big wing length with rangy movement skills and high processing speed on both ends. The basis of his NBA appeal lies on defense, where his combination of length and strength should make for a stopper capable of handling the NBA’s premier wing scorers. Standing at 6’8” with an insane 7’3 wingspan, Walsh possesses the prototypical build for an NBA combo forward. His active hands, quick feet, and upper body strength allow him to consistently wall off opposing ball handlers and make life difficult for them when they do get a step. He’s still developing as a secondary rim protector, but has the tools to make an impact in that facet as well — when he’s able to fully load up, Walsh is an impressive vertical leaper, and when paired with his wingspan could make for an incredibly valuable rim rotator. 

The reason why I’m especially high on Walsh is the belief that he has untapped offensive potential that wasn’t realized in the unstable Arkansas context. Walsh does admittedly have some red flag stats on the offensive end (5.6% AST% in conference play, 27% 3PT%), but I’m willing to wager that these are products of Arkansas’ lack of steady guard play and Walsh’s initial struggle to transition to a lower usage role. At Link Academy, Walsh was utilized as a big forward initiator, often running actions for Link as the ball handler and creating for himself off the dribble. His offensive role has been significantly scaled down at Arkansas, and now fits his likely NBA role much better. 

As he learns to contribute as a cutter and connective passer (Walsh was an impressive passer at Link), he’s a good bet to improve quickly on the offense end. Walsh’s driving flashes are the most enticing aspect of his offensive game, as his lower body flexibility, stride length, and overall coordination allow him to be dominant attacking the rim when he’s under control. If he can fix his balance issues (likely a product of his filled out upper body/relatively skinny lower body), he can be an effective closeout attacker at the next level. Being a good enough shooter to draw closeouts is another question, but his 73% FT and solid touch at the rim leave me encouraged with his shooting projection.

Jordan Walsh parlays his tools into disrupting plays on the defensive end in an impressive manner. The issue is that his offense seems to be a bit far away, with nearly every facet of his offensive repertoire being relatively raw.

One of the most important developments for these young wings is the opportunity to draw closeouts. When you’re 6’8’’ with exceptional hip extension range of motion and the ability to generate strong ground reaction forces, attacking a closeout from the baseline into an easy dunk is perhaps the ideal outcome. 

Walsh, however, is quite a ways away from drawing hard closeouts. While there are some vague touch indicators, such as 72% FT, Walsh is shooting 28% from 3 on just 5 3PA/100, despite nearly all his attempts being assisted. Part of the issue seems to stem from excessive wrist extension, which is another indicator of subpar touch.

While a somewhat broken shot with adequate touch indicators is not the worst thing in the world, Walsh also lacks much on-ball ability. He took very few unassisted shots inside the arc, and often went stretches without even touching the ball. During one stretch in January, Walsh went 6 for 27 from the field, and he had a sub 50% true shooting percentage during conference play. His ability to play at different cadences is relatively minimal, and his handle lacks even rudimentary counters.

There are other indicators of general rawness on both ends. Walsh is very prone to racking up fouls in a flurry, with a whopping rate of 4.8 fouls per 100. This is especially problematic as an inhibitor of his momentum. For someone who requires extensive reps on both ends to become acclimated to game speed, these fouls are wholly detrimental to his development. He also has a relatively low dunk conversion rate, which is a testament to his unabashed desire to “dunk everything.” Part of this is confidence, but often he’s unable to generate better finishing angles by virtue of his limited handle and gather progressions.

By no means am I admonishing Walsh’s upside. Instead, I believe that Arkansas was a difficult context for his development given their lack of bona fide playmakers. He’s very raw offensively and defensively to an extent; building upon his combination of elite tools and underlying touch/processing to develop greater on-ball proficiency would ultimately allow him to draw harder closeouts. 

Trayce Jackson-Davis has been really good for a really long time.

In high school, TJD was a McDonald’s All-American, with a 94 RSCI (~ top 35 recruit). More impressively, however, he’s been historically productive every single year of his collegiate career. He’s steadily risen from 4.4 PRPG and 8.8 BPM as a freshman to 6.3 PRPG and 14.5 BPM as a senior, never experiencing a decline in productivity. For context, the only freshmen to even hit 4 PRPG and 8 BPM in the last 3 cycles are Mobley, Chet, Jabari Smith, and Brandon Miller. The only players to even hit 6 PRPG and 13 BPM are Zion, Keegan Murray, Frank Kaminsky, Denzel Valentine, and Zach Edey.

Furthermore, only 25 players met those marks as freshman. 24 of those players were drafted within top 32, and 20 of those 23 players were lottery picks. In short, TJD was putting up pretty noteworthy production at a young age, despite his archetypal pedigree being largely unfavorable in the eyes of the consensus.

That baseline of dominance at every level, even from a young age, distinguishes him from other centers who suddenly “break” out at older ages. Beating up on younger competition isn’t entirely meaningless, but having the ability to do so as a teenager is a more robust indication of projectable value in the NBA. 

Beyond the consistent dominance at each level, TJD is a remarkably unique prospect for his size. His combination of fluidity and decision-making ability are relatively rare for someone listed at 6’9’’ and 250 pounds. For instance, against Maryland, TJD hit a back/escape dribble in transition to create further separation against his defender. The sheer ability to expeditiously decelerate into this back dribble at 250 pounds was staggering, and it’s a testament to TJD’s kinetic chain coordination. His lower body had to rapidly adjust to the changing ground reaction forces (proportional to his weight), thereby providing a stable base for his body to move upon.

Finally, TJD can parlay his movement skills and post gravity into passing opportunities. He punishes help defenders at will, accumulating a whopping 25% assist percentage this year. This is a truly mind-boggling statistic, as he’s the only player ever recorded in Barttorvik.com to even have 20% assist and 60 dunks (TJD has 67 dunk attempts, should go up in the tourney). 

TJD’s interior offensive and defensive goodness are well-documented, but a player with his coordination and decision-making skills perhaps has some untapped utilization. Against Maryland, he hit a transition, go-ahead jump pass while crossing halfcourt. Furthermore, TJD has a career 67% FT and coherent touch on hook/post shots around the basket. He’s long and physical enough to play a John Collins role, but has outlier coordination and passing ability i.e. Sengun.

Ultimately, the pitch for TJD is sheer dominance, positive decision making, and outlier coordination. TJD may be a 23 year old on draft day, but the traditional criticism of older rookies has less credence in context to his physical and statistical goodness

Trayce Jackson-Davis is a fringe top 40 player in this class, however his inability to shoot largely hinders him, as well as the fact that there are just a few other players similar to him that I prefer. While TJD has been a huge force for Indiana the last few years, his playstyle and defensive struggles turn me away from him quite a bit. 

I love big connectors, but I LOVE big connectors who can shoot. And if they can’t shoot they should be great defensively. TJD, unfortunately, struggles with both of these things. A great passer and post player for his size, Jackson-Davis may not have it as easily at the next level. Similar players like him such as Toumani Camara or Oso Ighodaro are favored to me due to their defensive ability/potential, as well as Camara being extremely mobile with the ball and a willing shooter. Trayce is just a 37% shooter from the mid-range, and I just don’t see him being able to score as easily as he could in the Big 10 in the paint at the next level. Jackson-Davis has had a great college career, but I struggle to find a way for him to be impactful in the NBA, and at 23 years old, I don’t think an NBA team should take the time/resources to develop him to that point unless they are absolutely enamored.

Every Kris Murray breakdown I’ve seen compares him to his twin brother Keegan, so I’m going to opt against doing that. Despite the fact that Kris is going to turn 23 years old before making his NBA debut, ranking him 17th still felt a bit low to me. When I found out that made me the highest of our group, I was shocked.

If there’s one thing that NBA teams currently value it’s forwards who can dribble, pass and shoot. Standing at 6’8’’ and offering positive value on the defensive end, if Kris could offer all three of the coveted offensive skills he’d be a surefire top 10 pick. The bad news is that he doesn’t, but the good is that he has two of the three. Even more importantly, he’s already comfortable with the hardest one to develop, dribbling. Dribble-pass-shoot players are what NBA teams desire, but what they need are guys with a strong enough frame to set meaningful screens that make their offensive actions work. This can often result in players who lack offensive skills seeing minutes just to do the dirty work. What makes Kris so valuable is that he’s just as comfortable setting those screens as he is using them. It’s challenging to find dribble-pass-shoot forwards and to find players with the size and comfort to set screens while also offering dynamic secondary on-ball creation and Kris is *close* to offering all of that in one player.

His shot will undoubtedly need some tweaking (33.9% this season from three). It’s not uncommon for players to start their motion with their shooting hand on the side of the ball, but at some point that shooting hand finds its way under the ball. That shooting hand relocation isn’t happening for Kris yet who fires off his shots with only his pinky and index finger under the ball. On the defensive end, he’s not a very explosive athlete, nor does he have a lengthy wingspan but he is both solid and consistent. His mechanics on closeouts are good as he fights to recover through screens and is usually able to track his man while staying engaged off-ball. The type of player who won’t make your defense while also not breaking it either. All in all, while not being the sexiest pick, Kris Murray is a tweak to his shot mechanics away from being a lock to provide top-10 value for the next decade.

After Keegan Murray was one of the more divisive prospects of last year’s draft cycle, I want to make one thing clear.

Kris Murray has all the makings of an NBA player. He has positional size at both forward spots, a positive shooting projection, and the baseline athleticism needed to survive in today’s game. He has had some really intriguing moments as a driver this year, and as his usage has gone up he has shown more ability with the ball in his hands than many expected.

That is all well and good, but I struggle to see the avenues for high-leverage impact. Murray should be an effective cog in a team’s rotation, but this class has a bevy of prospects in Coleman Hawkins, Jordan Walsh and Taylor Hendricks with a similar value proposition and an easier pathway to high-end  impact. 

A lot of that hinges on defensive projection, where I think Murray lags behind his peers. Despite being clearly the oldest of the bunch, he is not much of an event creator and while he can move with smaller players he is by no means a stopper. This isn’t to say every forward has to be a great defensive player to be valuable, but defensively neutral forwards that operate as a play finisher on offense are much more replaceable. 

If I trusted the shot a little more I would feel differently. If I believed in his viability as a small ball center I would feel differently. If I was more excited by the idea of him playing the 3 I would feel differently. Making a board is about splitting hairs, and someone has to fall. 

Colby Jones is your prototypical upperclassman guard that will seamlessly connect your offense together. Every team is looking for those connecting role players that will make an impact on the game no matter what role they’re in on the court, and Jones fits that description to a tee. At 6’6’’, Jones is a big guard that can see time playing the point, can play off ball and can do a great job guarding the opposing team’s best guards.

Jones’ ability to get into the paint, where he has a tremendous floater and is shooting very well at the rim (62%), will help teams a ton. He is also a great closeout attacker where he can create opportunities for himself or teammates. If a teammate creates an advantage, Jones is a trustworthy player to capitalize off of it by either extending it with his playmaking or finishing it himself. Formerly a below average to average three point shooter, Jones has vastly improved on his form and the percentages have reflected it. A 30% three point shooter over his first two years at Xavier, he eventually became a 38% shooter. Given it isn’t at a high volume, at only three attempts per game, but the improvement is clear and will be key for his role in the NBA. 

The defense is also a big selling point with Colby as his chiseled 6’6’’ frame can throw off guards who can’t match his strength. He is an excellent off-ball defender, active in help and in passing lanes, a good screen navigator who just doesn’t make many mistakes on that end. He is also a great help on the boards for his position where he comes flying down for rebounds and can push it in transition. While not being an overwhelming plus in one area, he does just about everything well in all facets of the game with makes him an intriguing role player to put around a #1 guy.

Xavier’s Colby Jones is a great college basketball player whose game I thoroughly enjoy watching. He makes split second decisions, has a killer floater, and is a consistent defender. But I see little reason to use a first round pick on him considering what I view as a lack of star or even high-end starter probabilities.

First of all, the hooting is tough to fully buy into given an extremely limited sample, and with only nine unassisted threes in his college career as a third-year guard. Colby scores best by using his strength to carefully power his way to midrange against weaker NCAA defenders where his superior touch does the rest of the work. The problem is, in addition to limited volume from three, he is unlikely to have the same power edge at the next level where his lack of foot speed will be a problem as more of a big guard than a small wing. 

Colby’s defense and decision-making are quite good, enough so that I feel comfortable projecting Jones as a role player at the next level who could fill in here and there as a starter. But that is not what I’m looking for in the first round, especially with some genuine star bets likely to slip into the 20s. The ability to assess a situation in a moment is a great tool for translating at the NBA level, one which Colby certainly has. The canary in the coal mine is perhaps his free throw rate against top teams, which went from 36.4 free throws/FGA against the weaker half of opponents compared to 24.7 against top 50 teams. Without an elite shot or outside shot volume, Jones may struggle to find clear edges on offense against opponents.