With college basketball season in full swing, let’s look at a few players who have caught my eye as we head into conference play. I will highlight specific skills and give my observations on four players who are off to hot starts.
Malik Mack’s Offensive Juice
In the last ~70 years, there’s only been one player from Harvard to suit up in an NBA game: Jeremy Lin. Often lost in the legendary underdog story is just how dominant Lin was in the Ivy. 67.1% at the rim, 7.8% stock rate, .691 FTr, 30.8% assist rate as a junior? It’s hard to draw up a wilder stat line for a 6’3” guard (Reed Sheppard may like a word).
It’s been a long while since Linsanity, and few Ivy Leaguers have established themselves as true pro prospects in the last two decades. Princeton’s Devin Cannady got some run with the Magic from 2020-2022. The Jazz picked Yale’s Miye Oni at 58th in 2019. But today, Harvard Freshman Malik Mack should be on everyone’s draft radar.
Through ten games the 6’1” guard is stuffing the stat sheet, posting 20.1 points, 4.4 assists, and 1.1 steals a night on 62.5% true shooting. He’s hitting a blistering 47.2% of his 10.4 3-point attempts/100. Shooting versatility is one of the main selling points for Mack, with his smooth lefty stroke. He gets plenty of elevation on his jumper and his high release point allows him to shoot comfortably over the outreaching arms of defenders.
Harvard has done a great job utilizing Mack’s movement shooting ability. He’s looked comfortable firing out of DHOs and off screens, particularly with rightward momentum. His fluidity and flexibility on these actions pops off the screen, as he’s capable of running at high speeds before flowing into his shot. I love the sudden motion in the first clip below – going from slow to fast to create separation without the ball in his hands. It’s great to see such off-ball aptitude from a guy carrying a 29.8% usage rate.
Mack’s off-the-dribble shot is equally as dangerous – he’s made more unassisted threes this year (13) than he has assisted threes (11). Despite lacking top end explosiveness, Mack creates just enough space for his jumper with a tight and crafty handle. Using hang-dribbles, jabs, and deceptive crossovers, Mack keeps defenders honest. He’s especially comfortable on step-backs and fade-aways, as his shot seems to have a natural backwards sway.
The scoring is the obvious pitch, but he’s also ahead of the curve as a playmaker. He’s a one-handed lefty passer through and through, capable of making the weak-side corner skip and hitting the roller with slick wraparounds. I’ve been impressed by his ability to stay composed and make the correct read versus at-the-level ball screen coverages. The delivery in the first clip is just nasty. With four defenders collapsing, Mack pulls the ball behind his leg and somehow whips it between everyone to the right wing.
Mack is one to keep an eye on for the rest of the season. While there are plenty of challenges for the undersized guard to overcome (finishing amongst the trees and defense), he’s a world class shot-maker, and it’s encouraging to see his abilities as a playmaker and off-ball shooter shining this early in his college career.
Otega Oweh’s Power and Instincts
Oklahoma has been dominant in non-conference play, with huge wins over Iowa, USC, Providence, and Arkansas. A large reason for their success has been sophomore Otega Oweh, a burly guard whose strength and power overwhelm opponents on both ends of the floor.
Oweh does most of his damage in the paint, with 65% of his shot attempts this season coming at the rim. He’s tough to stop with a head of steam going downhill, getting low on his drives and using his long stride lengths and change of direction ability to generate paint touches. Once he gets to the rim, Oweh uses his large frame to keep defenders on his hip and get to lefty extension finishes.
Oweh has been weirdly effective as a shooter this year, having made ten of his fourteen three point attempts. The sample size is obviously tiny, and given that he finished 1 for 4 last season, his shooting projection is far from a sure thing. He’s put some clean-looking makes on film, like this confident spot-up over a solid contest…
But notice how low his release point is on the shot below.
Regardless of the inevitable “will he draw closeouts?” questions, Oklahoma does a good job scheming him rim touches, using him as a trailer or getting him downhill off hand-offs. He’s decisive enough off the catch to eat up space that defenders give him.
While I appreciate his aggressiveness, I think he could let the game slow down a little more. His drives rarely turn into assists, as he’s prone to passing up open shooters on the perimeter or dump-off windows in favor of jumping without a plan and forcing up impossible layups. 8.1% is a poor assist rate for someone who gets downhill as often as he does.
He also generates rim attempts without the ball in his hands, using his off-ball feel to pick out spots as a cutter and offensive rebounder. In the first clip, notice how he perfectly times his move with the backline defender helping on the drive. Then he makes the high-effort tip-in as time expires.
His hustle and instincts translate to the defensive side of the floor. He’s a steal and slam waiting to happen, frequently intercepting passes and taking it to the house. He has the lower-body strength to hold up in the post and the mobility and hands to disrupt as an off-ball chaser. He has a 5.1% steal rate this season, right in line with his 5.3% steal rate last year.
Oweh has been a two-way force to start the season. His NBA sell is tough without the shot coming around, but his defensive toughness, slashing, cutting, and raw production make him a guy worth checking out.
Reed Sheppard is Doing It All
Reed Sheppard’s numbers don’t even seem real. I promise I’m not exaggerating. 15.4 BPM, 77.0 True Shooting%, 4.0 Block%, 5.9 Steal%, 57.1 3P%, 21.1 AST%, 86.7 at rim FG% … we really haven’t seen anything like this.
His shooting prowess should stand out to any NBA team. Sheppard has consistent mechanics, and he’s capable of hitting shots off the catch and off the dribble from well beyond the three point line. Inside the arc, he uses his feathery touch to knock down difficult looks off the bounce.
My question is just how audacious is Sheppard? 8.6 attempts/100 possessions is solid volume, but it isn’t that high for a shooter of his caliber. It’s tough in an offense full of guards and ball-handlers, but I love the blips of him not giving a damn. Watch below as he pulls-up versus an under from the logo and spots up from way way way behind the line and fires. Could we see a volume spike in an NBA offense? Immanuel Quickley has taken ~2.5 more threes/100 with the Knicks than he did in two years at Kentucky.
Most of the time, Sheppard makes the right play. He’s a steady connective passer who does a good job finding the open man. He constantly has his head up – I love the vision to find Aaron Bradshaw running hard to the rim in semi-transition.
However, I worry about how his creation looks at the next level, particularly as a slasher. Sheppard rarely creates layups for himself in the half-court. He too often drives without even glancing at the rim, turning his body away from the basket before kicking it out to the perimeter. Sheppard has a solid first step, but his third and fourth steps slow him down. His strides shorten and he struggles to explode all the way to the rack. This can lead to some rough looking turnovers when the gap help is well-prepared.
Sheppard’s defense has been remarkable, albeit not perfect. There are moments of off-ball spaciness and jumpiness on closeouts, and some of his gambles do not pay off. At the same time, Sheppard has perhaps the quickest hands of any prospect in recent memory, making life hell for opponents on the ball. He has a unique ability to evade screens and poke the ball loose from ball-handlers without fouling. It’s like he’s spamming the steal button in rookie mode on 2k.
This should be an easy post-entry pass, but Sheppard comes in from behind to force a turnover. And then he finishes the play contesting the fast break lay-up with verticality that you don’t see from a 6’3” guard.
While there may be some athletic and self-creation limitations here, I’m struggling to see the argument against Reed Sheppard’s NBA case. He makes too many good things happen on both ends of the floor.
Dailyn Swain’s Movement Skills and Defensive Aptitude
Dailyn Swain probably isn’t going to end up in this year’s draft class, averaging just 5.3 points per game on 14.0% usage, but the 18-year old wing has caught my eye with his advanced defensive skill set.
It starts with his ball-screen defense, where Swain is incredibly nimble at 6’7”. He glides over screens with relative ease, staying attached to his man, getting skinny, and dipping his shoulder to fight through. Even if he ends up a little behind play, Swain has the recovery tools to regain ground and engulf shots from behind.
His awareness here is excellent. Swain gets caught up in the screen and gives up an advantage. However, he recognizes the pass to the roller coming and peels off from the ball-handler, drifting down and forcing a turnover.
He’s another guy with elite hand placement, keeping his mitts active for on-ball deflections and strips. He boasts a 3.8% block rate and a 3.4% steal rate, and only commits 2.3 fouls per 40 minutes. Away from the ball, he uses his long stride lengths to cover swaths of ground, and he’s capable of helping at the rim or in a gap and recovering back to his man.
Offensively, I’m still trying to figure out exactly what Swain is. He hasn’t made a three since November 13th (3/11 on the season), and while he has solid vision, he also throws too many errant passes. I’m curious to see how he develops as a creator given how fluid he looks with the ball in his hands. He looks like a true vet in the clip below, spinning to his right, getting his defender leaping with an up-fake, and drawing the foul. Plays like this, along with his 50.0 FTr, are indicative of his feel and potential craft.
Again, I doubt Swain generates enough buzz to be a one-and-done, but he offers an intriguing package as a young, defense-oriented wing with untapped offensive upside.
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