This past April, John Calipari shocked the college basketball landscape by parting ways with Kentucky and joining the Arkansas Razorbacks. While in Lexington, Cal helped develop countless stars who are dominating the NBA today. In particular, the number of former Kentucky guards excelling at the pro level is outrageously high. Since 2010, there have been 15 Kentucky Guards drafted in the first round. Their accolades? 13 All-Star appearances, 6 All-NBA appearances, 3 All-Defense appearances, a Most Improved Award, a Sixth Man Award, and an NBA championship. The list of honors is only growing, with Devin Booker, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Tyrese Maxey, and more all possessing plenty of prime years ahead of them.
We’ll have to wait and see if Arkansas turns into a prospect factory, but the Kentucky to NBA pipeline through Coach Cal is now officially over. Reed Sheppard and Rob Dillingham, both projected lottery picks, are the last to join this high-achieving group. But can they reach the illustrious heights of the names above? How do Sheppard and Dillingham stack up to their Kentucky counterparts?
A Brief Introduction
I wrote about Reed Sheppard in December, and much of my analysis remains the same. Sheppard was shooting 57.1% from three back then, a number so incomprehensible that it seemed impossible for it to hold up. Yet somehow it did. Sheppard finished the season at 52.1% from three on 144 attempts, displaying the versatility to hit spot-ups, pull-ups, and fire from the parking lot.
Physical tools and creation juice have been the main question-marks surrounding Sheppard. Is he capable of holding up on the defensive end? Does he have the handle and burst to get to his spots against NBA athletes? Still, Sheppard’s knack for being in the right place on both ends of the floor and other-worldly efficiency are enough for him to rank 3rd on Rookie Scale’s consensus big board.
Rob Dillingham, who slots in at 11th on the Rookie Scale board, is one of the most electrifying offensive players in this class. Dillingham is an elite advantage creator who wins with his shifty handle, killer first step, and silky jumper. He averaged 15.2 points per game in just 23 minutes off the bench. Dillingham uses his gravity well to capitalize on passing windows and find open teammates out of drives and pick-and-rolls.
As with Sheppard, physicals are amongst the oft-discussed concerns. Standing at 6’1” without shoes and 164 lbs., Dillingham will have to be truly special offensively to leave a positive imprint on the game at the next level. How will he finish amongst the trees against NBA rim protectors? And with his erratic defense, will he be singled out as a weak link?
Pitfalls and Takeaways From the Past
For the sake of this exercise, we will compare the 13 Kentucky guards drafted since 2011 to Reed Sheppard and Rob Dillingham. (Note that this excludes John Wall and Eric Bledsoe from 2010 due to shooting data inconsistencies.)
2011: Brandon Knight*
2012: Marquis Teague
2013: Archie Goodwin
2015: Devin Booker*
2016: Jamal Murray*
2017: Malik Monk* and De’Aaron Fox*
2018: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander*
2019: Tyler Herro*
2020: Immanuel Quickley and Tyrese Maxey
2022: TyTy Washington Jr.
2023: Cason Wallace*
*Indicates Lottery Pick
It’s impossible to evaluate the exact success rate of Coach Cal guards given how recently many of them were drafted. But whether they’re getting MVP votes, making All-Star teams, or simply sticking around as starting caliber backcourt pieces, the eye-ball hit rate here is remarkably high. I’d say that Marquis Teague and Archie Goodwin are the only ones who never really found their footing. Early returns from TyTy Washington have been worrisome, but it’s hard to fully count someone out before their third year in the NBA. Either way, all of Washington, Teague, and Goodwin barely snuck into the first round, each drafted with the 29th pick in their respective classes. Simply getting mocked consistently in the lottery bodes well for Sheppard and Dillingham.
Aside from merely glancing at draft position, other indicators could help us weed out some lower-end outcomes. Let’s look at how each Kentucky guard got their shots up, specifically inside the arc. Here is every prospect organized by (lay-up attempts)/(off-the-dribble two and floater attempts).
Kentucky Guards by Lay-up to Long 2 Ratio:
| Name | Lay-Up to Long 2 Ratio |
| TyTy Washington | 0.38 |
| Immanuel Quickley | 0.49 |
| Malik Monk | 0.55 |
| Tyler Herro | 0.66 |
| Cason Wallace | 0.66 |
| Brandon Knight | 0.69 |
| Jamal Murray | 0.75 |
| Devin Booker | 0.79 |
| Tyrese Maxey | 0.91 |
| Reed Sheppard | 1.12 |
| Rob Dillingham | 1.18 |
| Shai-Gilgeous Alexander | 1.18 |
| Marquis Teague | 1.42 |
| De’Aaron Fox | 1.44 |
| Archie Goodwin | 1.72 |
This might seem like an arbitrary statistic, but attempting a high number of long twos, along with a low number of rim attempts, could indicate athletic and creation deficiencies. If one can’t consistently create paint touches against college athletes, how will they do so in the NBA? But there’s also a flip side to this logic – getting clean looks at the rim is challenging against NBA length, so having an in-between game to lean on is vital. Notably, the lowest ratio belongs to TyTy Washington, who attempted just 0.38 layups for every floater or pull-up middy. Meanwhile, Archie Goodwin had the highest ratio at 1.72. Finding the balance is key.
I think a main takeaway is that players should be phenomenal at the shots that they take. For example, let’s compare De’Aaron Fox and Marquis Teague. Both have similar rim-centric ratios at 1.44 and 1.42. However, Fox shot 5% higher on lay-ups, had 13 more dunks, and a 13.4% higher Free Throw rate. If you’re taking a lot of shots at the rim, be an awesome finisher. The signs were also there for in-between development for Fox, who shot 43.6% (24/55) on runners versus Teague’s 17.0% (8/47).
As far as projecting All-Star outcomes, this metric seems to favor slightly more rim-centric prospects. Those with a lower number of layup attempts to long twos have settled into strong starter/6th-man-ish spark plug roles, such as Immanuel Quickley, Tyler Herro, and Malik Monk. Jamal Murray, Devin Booker, and Tyrese Maxey weren’t necessarily paint-touch machines in college, but all have higher layup ratios than the aforementioned group.
How do Sheppard and Dillingham Stack Up?
Reed Sheppard’s Shooting
Shooting is the obvious selling point for Sheppard, whose unreal splits pop off the screen next to any prospect in recent memory. Even when compared to our pool that contains plenty of high-versatility and high-volume snipers, Sheppard’s numbers stand out.
Sheppard shot 52.8% on pull-up twos, 6.6% higher than 2nd place Tyler Herro. It’s worth noting that the PU2 isn’t necessarily Sheppard’s preferred shot, as he gets a significantly higher share of his looks from beyond the arc. As a matter of fact, only Tyrese Maxey and Immanuel Quickley attempted less off-the-dribble mid-range jumpers/40. Even on low volume, Sheppard has displayed a simple but effective mid-range bag, capable of stopping and popping and flowing into pull-ups with ease. Even when off-balance, Sheppard has the touch and body control to finish tough looks.
Pull-up threes are an area where we can see some evolution in Coach Cal’s system. Many were discouraged from taking said shots, most notably Tyrese Maxey and Devin Booker. Both of the Kentucky guards this year rank top three in pull-up three attempts/40. Again, Sheppard’s efficiency is bananas. Immanuel Quickley and Marquis Teague made higher percentage but on a minuscule number of attempts. Amongst players to take over one pull-up three per 40, Sheppard ranks first by a whopping 12.6%. He’s comfortable getting to his three out of pick-and-rolls and isolations and has the confidence to pull it from way beyond the line.
And then there’s catch-and-shoot threes, where Sheppard got up a respectable 4.57 attempts/40. That per 40 volume is a good bit behind guys like Jamal Murray (7.32 attempts), Devin Booker (6.76), and Malik Monk (5.98), but still higher than Tyler Herro and Tyrese Maxey (4.28 and 3.33). Sheppard is the group’s most efficient at a blistering 51.4%. The defining features of his catch-and-shoot profile are his range and shot-prep. Sheppard wasn’t tasked with sprinting around screens at Kentucky, but he’s an apt off-ball mover and after-pass re-locator, allowing him to excel on semi-movement looks.
For those of you keeping track, Sheppard is the most efficient Kentucky jump-shooting prospect on catch-and-shoot threes, pull-up threes, and pull-up twos. He shot a higher percentage all over the floor than Book, Jamal, whoever. Choose your fighter, Reed shot higher. Remember when I said that players should take shots that they are good at making? As far as jumpers go, Sheppard made everything he took.
Rob Dillingham’s Volume
It’s gone underrated how large a load Rob Dillingham carried offensively. Yes, Dillingham came off the bench and played fewer total minutes than any other player on this list. But when he was in the game, he ran the show. He leads our sample in usage rate, assist rate, and off-the-dribble jumper attempts/40.
Recall how I mentioned that Reed and Dillingham each ranked top three in pull-up threes/40? Well, it turns out that Dillingham is actually the top dawg by a lot, averaging 3.11 attempts. He ranks 2nd in lay-up attempts/40 with 6.01, well below De’Aaron Fox at 7.52, but above Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s 5.26.
Dillingham is unlikely to develop into an SGA-level slasher, a player whose height and length give him a massive boost. Further, Dillingham did notably more damage scoring in transition than Shai, whose bread and butter has always been generating half-court rim touches. However, all of this does speak to the level of creator that Dillingham has the potential to be – someone who can threaten the opposition with his pull-up while getting into the paint and putting defenses in rotation. Even without the finishing tools of an SGA, he still creates lay-down windows with his downhill playstyle.
Dillingham certainly has his physical limitations, as the lightest, shortest, and least lengthy player in our sample. But he boasts some elite creation tools, mainly his handle and stop-and-start abilities. His change of direction while moving downhill is phenomenal. At his ceiling, Dillingham can become an elite off-ball scorer. His herky-jerky style of play will lend itself well to actions away from the ball. Dillingham is tough to stop when running off screens and getting into his jumper or attacking the rim off the catch. He’s incredibly decisive versus already off-balance defenders, and his side-step is a dangerous counter to hard closeouts. On catch-and-shoot threes, Dillingham’s 47.7 FG% trails only Reed Sheppard.
I’m also high on his ability to initiate offense in transition, using his raw speed to blow by defenders running back and stopping and self-organizing for quick pull-up threes.
Stocks, Stocks, Stocks
4.6% steal rate. 2.5% block rate. Sheppard is an all-time great events creator for a guard. Cason Wallace, already a plus-impact defender as a rookie, is the closest thing we have with a 3.7% steal rate and a 1.6% block rate. There are real questions about Sheppard’s foot speed on the ball and he lacks the size to guard up for stretches, but man, he might have some of the best hands and feel I’ve ever evaluated. Routine passes around the perimeter turn into turnovers when Sheppard is on the floor. He’s more menacing than you’d expect at the point of attack, constantly stripping opponents. Even on plays where he’s seemingly out of an action, Sheppard covers the ground and can get his fingertips on a ball.
Given that none of our Kentucky guys can match his stock numbers, let’s at least compare him to all First Round Picks since 2008 with 4+ steal rates and 2+ block rates (via barttorvik):
There are a few players who you might expect to see: Marcus Smart, Thybulle, and Tari Eason. But I think it’s interesting that guys like Harden and CJ McCollum hit these thresholds – two remarkably skilled, crafty, and intelligent scorers – but not players lauded for their defensive aptitude. Perhaps high stock numbers could be indicative of feel, which would also translate to the other end of the floor. This bodes well for Sheppard, who, despite his Smart-esque defensive events creation, is still an offense-presenting prospect.
With Dillingham, I have genuine concerns about his defensive fit against NBA athletes. His 2.4% steal rate is the 6th highest amongst our Kentucky pool, and while he has some nice moments of peskiness, Dillingham is a chronic gambler whose risky decisions don’t always pay off. He fouls a lot – there isn’t much reason for a one-position defending guard to average 4.5 fouls/40. Without the elite feel of a guy like Sheppard, Dillingham’s defensive ceiling and floor are both low.
Rob Dillingham’s Efficiency
Knowing that Dillingham is the group’s leader in usage, takes a lot of wild shots, and suffers the physical deficiencies I discussed earlier, where would you expect him to rank in True Shooting?
If you somehow guessed third, you’d be correct. Reed Sheppard is number one at 69.9%. Another sentence, another ridiculous Sheppard outlier stat. But Dillingham slots in below only Devin Booker. TS% isn’t everything, but it does clearly matter. TyTy, Goodwin, and Teague are the three least efficient of the sample. Dillingham’s splits aren’t in Sheppard territory, but they are still the marks of an elite shooter.
Dillingham’s Shooting Splits:
- 40.7 Off the Dribble 2P%
- 37.9 Off the Dribble 3P%
- 47.7 Catch and Shoot 3P%
- 52.8 Runner FG%
- 50.9 Lay-up FG%
The only really concerning area of the floor is the rim. Dillingham’s highs are high, contorting his body, absorbing contact, and somehow getting difficult looks to fall. But physical limitations make it impossible for him to finish at a high clip. Plagued by his lack of strength, Dillingham struggles to get clean looks consistently in a crowd, taking off early and trying to twist his way to finishes. His style would lend itself better to someone with more length, as he frequently scoops for extension lay-ups and forces his way into windows that his arms are simply too short to capitalize upon. This can improve as he gets stronger, but how much weight can he realistically add? I don’t expect him to ever be a real free-throw rate tank despite his high rim volume. What’s promising is that Dillingham already has a relatively reliable in-between jumper and boasts feathery touch on his floater, which should help him compensate.
Sheppard the Creator
This is where things get interesting for Sheppard. Everything I’ve said up to this point may have you believing that Reed Sheppard is a can’t miss superstar. But I do question exactly what level of perimeter initiator he will be.
In lay-up attempts/40, Sheppard ranks 2nd to last with 2.39. He’s ahead of only Immanuel Quickley, whose allergy to lay-ups has been well-documented. Sheppard has the standstill burst to get by the first line of defense, but I worry about his inability to punish defenses with his proceeding steps. He is not someone who carves out space on his way to the paint with big stride lengths or change-of-direction moves. Lacking in top-end length, vertical explosion, and finishing craft, Sheppard has moments where he gets engulfed in the paint. Further, his turnover rate is the third highest of the group, trailing only Teague and Goodwin. He can struggle to navigate tight areas and needs to be better about feeling out gap help and maintaining ball control versus digs.
While Sheppard’s low per-40 rim volume is concerning, his 1.12 lay-up-to-long two ratio signifies that he still prefers getting to the rim over settling in the mid-range. This mark is higher than Maxey, Booker, and Murray. Sheppard is at his best starting his drives from further back behind the 3-point line, using the space defenders give him as a runway to build up speed. His touch around the rim stands out, finishing at a 57.9% clip on lay-ups, and while his craft could improve, there are noteworthy flashes of in-air adjustments.
Sheppard’s passing pops as well. Despite ranking last in usage rate, Sheppard is 6th in assist rate. He has real versatility as a live-dribble passer in both the half-court and transition, capable of making inside-out passes with either hand, throwing accurate lobs, and finding teammates for hit aheads. His vision and delivery on kick-outs are uber-impressive, somehow finding open teammates on the perimeter out of a crowd.
Parting Thoughts
Kentucky guards tend to work out. It feels wrong to say a prospect will excel at the pro level merely because of the college they chose to attend, but between the history of UK success, the film, and their overall stat profiles, I feel confident in both Rob Dillingham and Reed Sheppard finding their places in the NBA.
Dillingham has the chance to be a fantastic offensive piece, a guy who can legitimately create for himself and others, while running around screens and carving up defenses as an off-ball scorer. Despite the defensive concerns, his offense is likely worth a top 5 or 6 gamble, especially in a class supposedly devoid of high-ceiling prospects.
Even amongst our pool which includes multiple NBA megastars, Sheppard is a massive outlier. Nobody has shot like him from all areas of the floor. Nobody has created so many defensive events. This is what upside looks like – outlier skills and youth. Even if Sheppard isn’t a high-flying athlete, his two-way feel for the game is a clear indicator of future growth.
There are many positive outcomes here – a player who can facilitate an offense, play off other stars, and scale his usage up or down depending on who he shares the floor with. And given how unique an advantage he has in so many statistical categories, I don’t think we can rule out the possibility of an unexpected usage spike in the NBA, in the vein of Tyrese Maxey or Devin Booker. Especially if Sheppard hits a high-end shooting outcome, the extent of the strength and handle improvements he’ll need to undergo will be far less. There is a case to be made that Sheppard is the best prospect in the entire 2024 draft, not just for his perceived safety in a class lacking an obvious #1, but for his upside.
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