Player B.

If asked to pick between the two players without added context I’m sure many (myself included) would choose Player A. The gap in three-point shooting efficiency combined with the wide disparity in dunks paint Player B as a much more athletic, play-finishing wing. Considering the similarity in age, this may indicate more potential in Player A than Player B, despite Player B’s self-creation proxies (percentage of unassisted shots) being more impressive. For the reveal…Player A is Ben McLemore (the 7th pick in the 2013 draft), and Player B is Tyler Herro (the 13th pick in the 2019 draft).

Both 2013 and 2019 were considered relatively weaker draft classes at the time, and both Herro and McLemore had high draft capital invested in them mainly due to their shooting ability. So if shooting production is so easily forecasted why did these two players yield such wildly different results, and why are past drafts littered with highly touted shooters who either flamed out early into their NBA careers, or simply didn’t return anywhere near the value expected from their draft placement? What separates the Ben McLemores, Jimmer Fredettes, and Nik Stauskases of the world from the luminary shooters who came to define this era of basketball? Is there something that inherently makes shooting more inconsistently translatable than we’ve acknowledged or are aware of?

In an attempt to answer these questions I want to examine the shooting profiles of three 2024 draft prospects whose primary sell has been their shooting. The three players I’ve decided to dive into for this exercise are Ja’Kobe Walter, Melvin Ajinca, and Rob Dillingham.

Mechanic Specifically

In the past I have relied on my traditional understand of shooting mechanics to judge and grade shooting ability in different players. As the years pass and I see more and more players develop into anywhere from passable to potent shooters with unconventional shot mechanics, I realized while there is value in having some core shooting principles in your evaluations, flexibility is necessary. Confining the definition of a ‘good’ shot to an antiquated understanding of follow-throughs, foot placements and guide hand positioning will more than likely exclude high-level shooters from your rigid rubric. This realization drove me to developing a much more fluid grading system when it comes to differentiating shooters, based on these three tenets:

• Speed
• Versatility
• Volume

Shot Speed

Shooting speed is an essential component, and while it isn’t tracked in any widely available database, I am of the belief that shot speed is a great indicator of muscle memory which is closely tied to how immediately a player’s shot may translate and how far I feel comfortable projecting the potency of a player’s shot. This idea was brought about during the process of researching this piece. I had gone back to look into past prospects’ tape and see if there was a through-line in their shots which could have indicated they’d become the level of shooter they eventually developed into in the NBA. Take the clip below, for example:

The complete absence of load time physically or indecision in the process of shooting provides insight into the hardwiring of the shooter. For those who don’t recognize the shot mechanics due to the video quality (best I could find of 2012 WAC tape) the shooter here is Damian Lillard! While Dame’s shooting proficiency is an unrealistic bar to measure shooters by, there is value in recognizing how his ability to get into his shot, no matter how tight the window, was relevant to his development into a nuclear shooter.

Volume & Versatility

While all three of these core shooting principles are interrelated, it is necessary to discuss shooting volume and versatility in the same breath because one precipitates the other. It is impossible to attain sustainable shooting volume without an expansive shooting repertoire. Researching this piece I noticed a common theme amongst a lot of shooting prospect ‘misses’: an overreliance on shots from a specific play-type, whether it be shots off the dribble or catch-and-shoot attempts.

A player I had considered including in this piece was Zeke Mayo, a junior guard playing for South Dakota State. Initially enticed by his high shooting volume (11.5 3’s attempted per 100 possessions) on a diet of largely self created 3-point attempts (only 28% assisted threes), I dug into Mayo’s tape expecting to find a high-level shot creator forced into a lot of suboptimal attempts due to the lack of creation ability surrounding him. And while this was in large part the case, I also noticed an interesting trend. While Mayo was forced to take a significant amount of threes off the dribble because he was the only SDSU player capable of consistently creating their own shot, when he was provided opportunities to shoot open spot-ups they all too often looked like the plays below.

These plays, which individually may seem benign, standard cases of a player turning down a shot in search of a better look for himself or his teammates, is actually symptom of a larger issue in Mayo’s process as a shooter. After delving deeper into Mayo’s tape I eventually came to the conclusion that his low assist rate on threes was actually a function, not a bug, of his value system as a shooter. Mayo was undeniably more comfortable taking threes off the dribble, and almost always required a rhythm dribble to take an attempt. Any hard closeout which disrupted Mayo’s routine would cause him to pass up the shot attempt. This tendency not only represents a limitation in shot versatility, but also suppressed his volume. While this wart in Mayo’s shooting habits would be much easier to look over for most draft candidates, for a prospect whose shooting ability is central to their value, any minor flaw can be accounted for and exploited at the NBA level, hindering their viability as a spacer.

The best analogy I could use to describe the effect a player has when they possess all these qualities as a shooter is the Patellar-Reflex Test, or the Knee-Jerk Reflex Test as a layman like myself had known it as. This terminology probably sounds foreign but bear with me, we’ve all probably undergone this reflex test at some point over the course of a routine doctors visit. The doctor takes a rubber mallet to your kneecap, and as long as you deliver the expected reaction by kicking out your leg the physician carries on with the rest of the check-up. For anyone not following, the test is clipped below.

While any swing of the mallet will cause the knee to move, the more force applied the greater the reaction will be. In this analogy think of the shooter as being the doctor with the rubber mallet and the defense being the patient’s knee. The greater the volume, versatility, and speed of the shooter, the more pressure they will be able to apply to the defense and the more pronounced of a reaction they will be able to elicit from the defense.

For a demonstration of this idea playing out in a game lets compare two shooting specialists, Caleb Houstan and Buddy Hield. Both rank in the 78th and 74th percentile in three point shooting Points Per Possession (PPP), per Synergy. However, a closer look at the tape will show a drastic difference in the kind of reaction they elicit from the defenses they face. The two clips below for example, both plays feature Houstan and Hield running ghost screens intended to create seams for their ballhandlers to drive to the basket and create.

However, notice only Hield is able to get the on-ball defender, in this case Bam Adebayo, to open his stance and provide Tyrese Haliburton with a driving lane. Haliburton not only has a lane to drive to his strong hand, but enough space to take a pull-up 3.

Even the best shooting specialists in the league have seen their value fluctuate almost season by season depending on swings in efficiency. Duncan Robinson parlayed one hot shooting season into a substantial contract, was unable to maintain his efficiency as a shooter, and was almost immediately deemed ‘one of the worst contracts in the league’. Only after expanding his game off the dribble was he able to regain status as a valuable offensive weapon. Davis Bertans boasted one of the most stellar shooting resumes in the NBA before a prolonged shooting slump rendered his contract a massive albatross. These examples are crucial show why having a clear understanding of a player’s shooting is essential. By examining the three players central to this piece I hope to shed some light on A.) whether their shot possesses the factors necessary to remain effective as they transition to the NBA, and B.) what qualities in the rest of their offensive game separate them as shooters.

Ja’Kobe Walter vs Melvin Ajinca

At first glance Ja’Kobe Walter and Melvin Ajinca do not seem to have many similarities outside of being two 19-year-old prospects who will most likely be entering the 2024 draft. Walter is a sinewy 6’5 guard/wing, former 5-star recruit, who is currently playing for Baylor. Melvin Ajinca is a 6’7 lefty wing playing in the LNB ProA league (the highest division in France) for Saint-Quentin. Both players are touted for their shooting ability first and foremost and will be expected to serve as high-level floor-spacers for their respective NBA teams upon being drafted. However, their divergent routes to prospect-dom help shed light on how able they will be to able to meet this expectation.

Melvin Ajinca

Melvin Ajinca first came onto draft radars after an extremely impressive showing in the FIBA U19 World Cup this past summer, where he lead the French team to the championship game while shooting a blistering 71.6 (!!) true shooting percentage. While the majority of Ajinca’s scoring was of the play-finishing variety, consisting of hitting spot-up threes and getting out in transition, there were some flashes of high level self-creation. Take the play below, for example: France clears out the left side of the floor for what appears to be an empty-corner pick and roll for Ajinca. He quickly rejects the screen and counters the defender closing off the baseline by fluidly transitioning into a stepback three.

Displays of shooting off the bounce such as this, combined with Ajinca’s indifference towards contests and his willingness pulling from range well beyond that of his peers…

…quickly vaulted him into early draft conversations and captured my attention as a potentially outlier shooting prospect.

From here I attempted to gain a deeper perspective of Ajinca’s career prior to and since the U19 tournament, watching games from his time with Saint-Quentin in the French LNB Pro B league to now where they’ve earned promotion to the Pro A ranks. Ajinca, as with many young European prospects, has been confined to filling the specific role of an off-ball spacer, and actually his seven-game stint with the U19 team had been the most freedom he’d been afforded on-ball up to that point of his career. In 41 games logged in Synergy, Ajinca had been used in Isolation or as a P&R ballhandler 39 times; over the course of seven games in the U19 World Cup he’d seen 14 possessions in the same play-types.

Ajinca’s previous usage aligns with how we conventionally think of shooters being deployed. Ajinca saw the majority of his shots in the halfcourt come from deliberate set plays, such as the possession below where Saint-Quentin runs Horns Flare Spain, where Ajinca cuts from the right corner to serve as the second screener in the Spain action. Evident in this action is Ajinca’s lightning quick release, allowing him to catch and shoot in one motion.

If Ajinca wasn’t being used in Spain he was being run off double staggers…

Or a simple pindown with some window dressing, such as this Rip (backscreen) Screen-the-Screener action.

I would say these three actions are generally representative of how Ajinca has been utilized for Saint-Quentin, and, while I was initially captivated by how efficient Ajinca was in getting into his shot due to his quick mechanics and efficient energy transfer, as I watched more tape a trend started to become apparent. If you noticed a similarity in all of these clips, the plays are meticulously diagrammed, with Ajinca placed as a feature, not the focus of the action. While the speed component of Ajinca’s shot is certainly NBA caliber, to consistently place pressure on defenses these kind of plays are not best suited to answering the questions of volume and versatility essential to any high level NBA shooter.

Realizing this can sound kind of counterintuitive, if a player shoots with good efficiency and can get their shot off under duress, why would their be any uncertainty as to whether or not they can maintain their volume as they transition to the NBA? Wouldn’t it be in their team’s best interest to implement a steady diet of shooting opportunities into their offense for said player? The answer to this is complicated. In the NBA offenses typically subscribe to the philosophy of “path of least resistance”, meaning the bedrock of most team’s offenses comes down to “what is the most direct path which will yield the most consistent results.”

With shooting specialists, if they are schemed a shot it is with the understanding that the advantage typically begins and ends with the player receiving an open shot. And while this will work on occasion, frequently depending how well the play is diagrammed, there is a ceiling to how consistently these playtypes will bear fruit for an offense. The best phrasing I could think of to describe this difference is active versus passive spacing.

Compare these two clips below, for instance, of Desmond Bane and Simone Fontecchio stationed in the corner.

In the first clip, Kris Dunn drives from the middle of the floor, beats his man, and Fontecchio’s defender Fred VanVleet ‘helps the helper’ by rotating over from his initial assignment to prevent the dump-off passing angle to John Collins, all the while leaving Fontecchio open for the corner three. In the second clip, the Grizzlies run a spread pick-and-roll with Bane spaced in the corner. At first glance it seems Fontecchio’s three was the result of a defensive error by VanVleet. Whereas in the second clip Hardaway Jr doesn’t even briefly entertain the idea of leaving Bane to tag the roller in the second clip.

While it seems obvious the ideal execution in these similar positions is to remain closely attached to the shooter as Tim Hardaway Jr. does to Bane, VanVleet was doing what was asked of his defensive scheme as well. The main difference in these two clips isn’t so much the result of the play as the variety of shooter being covered in the play. While Simone Fontecchio is a respectable shooter (shooting 40% from three on the season on 305 attempts to date), what makes him a passive versus an active spacer is the understanding defenders have of how limited their responsibilities are when guarding Fontecchio.

As previously mentioned, usually when shooting specialists are schemed open, the advantage is confined to the three which was drawn up. As seen below, Simone Fontecchio is no exception to this. When the defense runs him off the line, the advantage is effectively ended.

Defenders knowing that a hard closeout, which gets Fontecchio to relocate, or even run off the three-point line, is effective in neutralizing his shooting threat, greatly reduces the strain Fontecchio can place on a defense. This simplified thought process for defenders manifests on the court in plays like the clip below. Michael Porter Jr. is Fontecchio’s initial defender, however he has no qualms helping off Fontecchio to stunt (provide help on a post-up) towards John Collins.

This play embodies the active versus passive spacing dichotomy, as while Fontecchio demands the respect of the closeout, the shooting threat isn’t so great that Fontecchio can carve out space for others outside of a very specific usage. Constant application of these kind of plays isn’t feasible for the simple fact that they introduce perhaps the hallmark of a bad NBA offense, predictability. And while implementing movement shooting elements into an offense is crucial, it is typically used as a feature, not the foundation of an offense.

Take the play below: the Cavaliers run a Ram Veer Exit play, where Georges Niang receives an off-ball screen from Max Strus en-route to setting an on-ball screen for Craig Porter Jr. (this is the Ram part of the action). After setting the screen for Porter Jr., Niang sets a pindown for Sam Merrill (Veer action), while Strus simultaneously receives an exit screen from Isaac Okoro. This play is beautifully designed, and all of these moving parts create a seam for Craig Porter Jr. to drive and score an easy layup. By expertly blending the shooting capabilities of these three players who individually demand respect, Cleveland is able to breakdown the defense without any conventional advantage creators on the floor.

However, if you were to remove all the scaffolding which comes with a well diagrammed play being combined with multiple potent shooters, what would it look like?

Take the play below, for example, a baseline out of bounds play in what is a much less shooting slanted lineup. Cleveland runs Ram Ghost, where Sam Merrill inbounds the ball receives a pindown from Niang and ghosts the on-ball screen. It is apparent from the play that this action doesn’t place nearly the same strain on the defense, with Boston switching 1-4 and not even momentarily hesitant on abandoning their scheme to pursue Merrill. Even with a heavier-footed big like Al Horford switching onto a perimeter player, the lacking off-the-bounce threat of Merrill makes this a simple rotation to execute.

I felt it necessary to reference these players not to undermine their abilities or paint them as devoid of value, but to provide a frame of reference for my concerns with Melvin Ajinca. As I went through his tape a persistent theme, similar to these shooting specialists cited above, was the absence of production when Ajinca was adequately covered out to the three-point line. There were numerous instances of Ajinca hamstringing the offense when he was forced to counter after meeting resistance on the initial action, such as this Spain PNR below…

Or when Ajinca was incapable of capitalizing on an opportunity to attack a short closeout when run off the line.

These clips may be seen as isolated instances, and Ajinca optimists may even interpret these plays as a natural byproduct of a younger player who has received limited on-ball reps. However, I remain skeptical of Ajinca’s potential to drastically improve this skill, as Saint-Quentin has actually attempted to integrate Ajinca more as a ballhandler into their offense. While he has almost exclusively seen these opportunities come in simple, two-man actions such as this empty corner pick-and-roll below, the results have left much to be desired with Ajinca scoring only .784 PPP as a PNR ballhandler this season.

As stated earlier, Ajinca still possesses the qualities of a viable off-ball spacer, but I see these limitations preventing him from ever seeing a usage higher than the current 16% usage he’s sporting for Saint Quentin. For Ajinca, as with most shooting specialists at the highest levels, their inability to adapt when forced to play out of structure curbs their volume, and as a result their impact on a possession to possession basis.

Ja’Kobe Walter

As stated earlier, both Ja’Kobe Walter and Melvin Ajinca’s primary appeal as prospects are their utility as shooters. However, both players have seen drastically different usages and the dichotomy between their respective shooting profiles would show as much. Below is a table of both Ajinca and Walter’s shooting splits over the past two seasons (2022-23 and the current season).

At first these splits seem to represent two players with somewhat similar shooting pedigrees, and in fact this table may stir some confusion as to why there’s such a great deal of separation between the two prospects in general draft media perception, judging by draft boards. Walter has shot a greater volume of 3s compared to Ajinca, however Ajinca’s been more efficient from a more standardized distance (all of Ajinca’s 3s are from the FIBA line of 22.15 feet, whereas a substantial portion of Walter’s long distance attempts are from the high school line of 19.75 feet). Initially I came into this process expecting to see similar calibre of shooters, with the gap in shooting ability between the two players to be equally represented on film; however in reality the effect these players had on defenses held stark contrasts.

To fully grasp the difference between Walter and Ajinca’s shooting ability, a holistic approach is necessary. While Ajinca has more or less seen identical usage in every team context he has been placed in, Walter’s role has varied greatly over the course of his young career. The different levels of usage are apparent in the difference between the number of non-threes Walter has taken compared to Ajinca. The scope of this article so far has mainly focused on these players ability to space the floor from three, but Walter’s shot diversity amplifies his effectiveness as a spacer.

Previously Melvin Ajinca’s processing and ability to adapt off the catch had been greatly scrutinized, and mentioned as a potential limiting factor to his utility to an offense. Ja’Kobe Walter, on the other hand, has a well-refined game off the catch and has melded other aspects of his scoring repertoire to fully exploit his shooting. The disparity between how reliable the two are at parlaying the shooting threat they present is evident in their respective free throw rates, as Walter has posted a robust 0.46 ratio of free throw to field goal attempts compared to a paltry 0.20 for Ajinca. The clips below are a prime examples of how Walter is able to convert these hard closeouts into quality offense.

In the first clip, Baylor runs a simple spread pick-and-roll, with Walter positioned in the weakside corner. Cincinnati’s big is in a high-drop coverage, and because of the angle he takes Walter’s defender (the low-man) has to over-help to prevent the wraparound pass. Once Walter receives the kickout in the corner, he fully capitalizes on the long closeout his man has to make by immediately getting downhill and drawing the foul

What is not visible in this clip, however, is Walter’s excellent footwork attacking these closeouts. Walter consistently is able to deploy ‘negative step’ footwork, where he uses his rear-foot to springboard his drives and mitigate some of his lackluster burst. The play below exemplifies this: the Baylor point-guard RayJ Dennis is able to break his man down off the dribble, triggering Walter’s man to help on the drive. As Walter receives the pass in the corner, his defender simultaneously recovers and is shading Walter towards the baseline. However, the defender’s top-foot is too high on the closeout, enabling Walter to attack and open up a driving lane to then draw the foul and finish for an and-one opportunity.

Why I initially thought it necessary to delve into the different developmental contexts between Walter and Ajinca, beyond their ability to attack closeouts, is how capable they are of adapting to the defense once run off the line. Walter isn’t just fixed to foul drawing when attacking closeouts. His previous time spent as a primary offensive option afford him a bevy of alternatives to place pressure on the defense.

Below is an example of exactly this, Baylor once again is running a spread PNR with RayJ Dennis as the ballhandler and Walter stationed in the corner. As Dennis’ defender loses contain, Walter’s man rotates over to help on the drive, creating a gap for Walter to attack when the ball is swung to him. Unlike the last closeout attack vs Cincinnati where Walter was provided a direct driving path towards the basket, this time Dennis’ defender rotates over from the topside. Despite the added variable Walter is able to quickly pro-hop to navigate the dig, and get to a balanced floater off two feet.

Take notice that as the screen is set Walter and his teammate on the wing, Jalen Bridges, exchange. While this may seem insignificant this is a microcosm of shooters having different levels of gravity. While on the surface Bridges may seem to be the better shooter than Walter, as he boasts a 40.6% 3-point shot compared to Walter’s 34.5%. But Walter is a much more reliable release valve for an offense because of plays just like this.

Synthesizing the information gathered from the tape and available databases like Synergy shows Walter to have a more impressive shot versatility than Ajinca. The table below displays three-point shooting efficiency over the past 2 seasons off handoffs and screens, showing how Walter has actually been more efficient in the most common playtypes for their presumed archetype.

Granted this a small sample, but this lends support to the theory of Ajinca’s shooting efficiency being drastically boosted by shots which don’t generate “gravity” as it is commonly understood.

Walter is not without his faults as a shooter, however, as while he surpasses Ajinca in versatility there is a limiting factor in his shot speed. If you notice in the clips above Walter is able to get downhill because he is operating off substantial advantages created by others and he has the respect to draw hard closeouts. Neither of these are factors can be relied on at the next level, where closeouts lie on more of a spectrum.

To demonstrate the relationship between shot speed and long versus short closeouts, I have pulled a few clips shown below. In the first clip, Moses Moody attacks a mismatch after Golden State gets an offensive rebound, and kicks the ball out to Brandin Podziemski after drawing Pascal Siakam as the help defender. Take notice of the depth of Siakam’s closeout; instead of closing out with reckless abandon or crowding Podziemski to prevent him getting a shot off, he stops a few feet short.

This short closeout is informed by Podziemski’s reputation as a shooter, where despite shooting 38% from 3 on the season and a blistering 44.7% as a collegian this past season, his discomfort shooting over contests and in tighter windows dissuades him from attempts with a high degree of difficulty. And when Podziemski does attempt shots over length, his lower release point makes contesting shots an easier task for defenders, as demonstrated in the clip below.

Podziemski runs off an Iverson cut to receive the entry pass and from here the Warriors attempt to flow into an empty corner PNR. However, the Raptor’s matchup zone clogs up any driving/passing lanes for this action, forcing Dario Saric to flash to the middle of the floor and find Podziemski sinking into a pocket of space left vacant by the zone. Notice again, despite the space a recovering Gary Trent Jr. is forced to cover, he stops a few feet short and is able to well contest the shot. Understandably this may seem like a harsh judgement of an ostensibly quality NBA shooter, however capitalizing on these margins is what separates shooters at the next level.

Contrast the treatment Podziemski receives as a spacer versus a player like Tim Hardaway Jr., for example. Hardaway’s high and quick release, paired with the bordering irrational confidence he has in his shot. When the shooting windows shrink, Walter will need to prove he can consistently get his shot off. Examining his previous tape shows how this will need to be an area of improvement for Walter.

Take the clip below. After Baylor runs some disjointed early offense they flow into a Spread PNR. Walter’s defender, Jameer Nelson Jr., is forced to tag the roller early due to TCU’s big hedging the ballscreen and RayJ Dennis swings the ball to Walter on the wing. Nelson Jr. closes-out on Walter with balanced footwork, and most importantly short. The short closeout allows Walter space to get up an attempt from 3 which Nelson Jr., listed at 6’2, is able to emphatically block.

This play does a great job of capturing the gradient which closeouts lie on. Walter is a dangerous enough shooter to demand some sort of closeout and is proficient driving against hard closeouts, meaning an option teams will exercise is the short closeout where Walter is forced to shoot over a moderate contest. While this block can be seen as an aberration, a single play not indicative of more than a bad decision from Walter, I’m of the belief this represents a wider trend and a weakness which Walter could struggle improving upon at the next level.

First of all, it is not just spot-up attempts Walter struggles getting up quickly, he also frequently had issues getting up shots off-the-dribble up against smaller defenders. Take the clip below, for example. Baylor runs a Get-77 action which is blown-up, and in response Walter lifts up from the corner and runs an empty corner PNR with Jordan Pope as his primary defender. Pope, listed at 6’2, blocks the shot AFTER going under the screen.

I’ve avoided discussing shot mechanics up until now because I don’t think there’s a platonic ideal to what a shot should look like, and often judgements in shot mechanics are more informed by aesthetics than functionality. In Walter’s case however, his struggles transitioning into his shot quickly run downstream from his mechanics. The clip below demonstrates two ways Walter compensates for this mechanical inefficiency.

Walter has a lower release point, to compensate for his struggles generating power from his lower body. This is evident from the valgus collapse in his knees shown more clearly below.

Another idiosyncrasy of Walter’s shot, potentially limiting his shot speed, is an inelastic set-point, also apparent in this clip. Notice how Walter gathers for this shot well outside his frame in order to position his shot so that it is set with his elbow pronated. This elbow pronation is more clearly displayed in the picture below.

Typically a shooter’s elbow is much tighter to his body, and more closely aligned with the shooter’s feet. The elbow pronation makes the set-point rigid, causing the shooter to take another split second to transition from their set-point to release. Both of these deficiencies are a result of Walter lacking general strength, which can be alleviated with time spent in an NBA strength program. However, when he doesn’t have the hair-trigger release speed to be consistently effective off horizontal shooting actions like ghost screens and flares, Walter’s defender can go under the flare screen and still credibly contest the shot, as in the clip below.

For a shooting prospect who cannot draw the hard closeouts necessary to create unambiguous driving opportunities, and who doesn’t necessary have the handle to capitalize on less pronounced advantages, the application of their shooting prowess can be significantly narrower than previously anticipated.

I found the parallels in these two plays and between these two players striking. Both Kevin Huerter and Walter are run off double staggers and neither is able to gain a significant amount of separation from the trailing defender. And when the decision is forced upon them by the defense, neither has the self organization skills to quickly transition into a shot off the dribble or drive to maintain the advantage, so in both cases the play results in a turnover.

This is not to say Walter is a one-to-one comp to Huerter, more so to illustrate the struggles a shooting specialist in his mold may encounter when his jumpshot is lacking in certain qualities. What we want to avoid is a shooting prospect whose draft slot warrants heavy investment of developmental resources, but who ultimately possesses a fungible skillset which I believe is the case with Walter.

Rob Dillingham

Up to this point the focus has been on parsing shooting aptitude based on which conditions prospects FAILED to meet, however, I wanted to delve into 6’2 Kentucky guard Rob Dillingham’s game as an example of what constitutes a high level shooting prospect on tape and by the numbers.

In order to understand what makes Dillingham’s potential as a shooter so appealing, it is necessary to look at his shooting profile over the past two seasons just as we had with Melvin Ajinca and Ja’Kobe Walter.

What immediately stands out about Dillingham’s shot profile is the difference in volume of off-the-dribble 3’s as well as catch-and-shoot 3’s compared to Walter and Ajinca. Dillingham over the exact same time frame and comparable total number of games played (Dillingham played 71 games over this stretch, compared to 75 and 80 for Ajinca and Walter respectively), managed to shoot more 3’s off the bounce than Walter and Ajinca COMBINED while shooting significantly less Catch-and-Shoot 3’s than both players (193 C&S 3’s versus 315 and 353). Some of the discrepancy in shot distribution can definitely be explained by their positional distinctions, but seeing how quickly Dillingham adapted to more of an off-ball role, when his responsibilities more closely aligned with Ajinca and Walter’s, was a revelation. When deployed as an off-ball player and asked to run off screens, Dillingham created space by utilizing the burst and understanding of tempo which made him such a potent scorer off the bounce.

Take the play below for example. Kentucky runs Floppy initially, with Dillingham being defended well on the catch. After Dillingham swings the ball back to Reed Sheppard at the top of the key, he runs towards Aaron Bradshaw on the left block, setting what seems to be the first screen of a baseline double stagger set. However, with Dillingham’s defender going over the top of Bradshaw’s screen, Dillingham recognizes this, reroutes and turns this into a ‘Ricky’ action, where the screener rescreens for the cutter but going in the opposite direction of the initial screen.

While Dillingham was used sparingly as a movement shooter (only 12 3’s off screens this season, on which he went 5/12), this play exemplifies how quickly Dillingham can self-organize and get into his shot off a variety of footwork patterns. Dillingham’s shooting numbers this season for Kentucky were obviously stellar, however a deeper look into the degree of difficulty on these shots quells any concerns I have on the translatability of Dillingham’s jumper. In the clip below for instance, Dillingham breaks convention not by taking a transition 3, but taking it as the primary ballhandler dribbling full speed down the court.

Willingness to shoot in these suboptimal situations, like the plays below where Dillingham comes off a pindown and takes a one dribble 3 with Tre Mitchell splayed at his feet..

…and over a tight contest from Armando Bacot, bodes well for maintaining his shot volume at the next level.

As I watched Dillingham over the course of the season I found there to be interesting parallels between him and a rookie from this past year’s class, Keyonte George. While there are drastic differences between the two in certain respects, there are/were similar concerns in their shot selection as prospects. During his tenure at Baylor, George had been much maligned for a perceived inability to operate within a team construct and even labeled a ‘chucker’ by some draft analysts. I would argue what was considered a weakness has actually been essential to George outperforming expectations in his rookie year.

Take this play from early in the season, for example, where Utah attempts to run Horns Out for Jordan Clarkson in early offense, but when the entry is denied George receives a Flare screen from Clarkson. Notice the apathy the defense displays towards a George three point attempt: if we are judging the value of George as a shooter by the aforementioned Knee-Jerk Reflex Test, it would be pretty low.

What I found so interesting about George’s rookie season was that despite how pedestrian his shooting splits were (38.6% from the field and 32.8% from 3), the coverages he saw over the course of the season transformed in large part because of how consistent he was with his volume. In fact, George saw his 3-point volume steadily increase over the course of the season. In the 2023 calendar year (games played from October-December) George averaged 5.1 attempts/game, and in 2024 George averaged 6.3 attempts/game. The Jazz were intentional in exploring the upper limits of George’s capabilities offensively and he consistently answered the bell. He now demonstrates his comfort shooting in simple flow actions like the DHO from John Collins below, where the sliver of space provided by Steph going under the screen is enough for George to pull the trigger.

George also displayed utility as an off-the-dribble shooter when provided more opportunities on-ball. In the play below Utah flows into a spread PNR as the secondary action and George, without a moment’s hesitation, pulls up for 3 when Bam Adebayo begins to backpedal into drop coverage.

George’s willingness to take these 3’s under duress resulted in him eventually receiving the kind of coverage which stands as the benchmark for offensive players, forcing the defense to place two on the ball.

Later in the same game as the play above, Utah runs Pistol Flare Zoom, a well schemed staple of their offense. Despite the fluid transitions from one action to the next, Miami stifles the offense and the ball finds Keyonte George in the corner. As with most NBA offenses, when Utah’s designed offensive options are taken away they resort to a simple spread PNR. However, because of the threat George presents as a shooter off the bounce, Miami’s big (Orlando Robinson) hard hedges the PNR, triggering the low-man (Haywood Highsmith) to tag the roller and leave Lauri Markannen open in the corner. When George diffuses the pressure of the hedge he quickly finds Markannen for 3.

This is an optimal shot for the Jazz, and Utah was able to create this in spite of Miami playing almost 20 seconds of good defense BECAUSE of George’s off-the-dribble shooting ability. While George isn’t seeing two to the ball with a high frequency yet, per Synergy all 8 of the times he’s been trapped as the PNR ballhandler have come since February 11th, which coincides with George’s rise in shooting volume.

Before revisiting Dillingham’s evaluation, I’d like to reiterate the comparison between George and Dillingham is not being drawn as a 1-to-1 comparison, rather as an example of how a seldom sought after archetype (smaller guards who are high volume shooters) can be extremely valuable if they meet certain criteria.

Dillingham showed himself more than capable of diagnosing coverages where he could utilize his off the dribble shooting prowess. Dillingham, like George in the previous clips, was decisive and consistent in punishing drop coverages which is integral to success for his archetype. In the clip below, Dillingham rejects the first screen in a 77 action (Double Drag) and finds the pocket of space left occupied by the trailing point-of-attack defender and the drop big man, and from there he decisively takes the pull-up 3 with a right-handed gather.

Even as scouting reports became more robust over the course of conference play, Dillingham was still able to get to his pull-up 3 against drop coverage. Like in the play below where Kentucky runs Horns, the POA defender is better able to stay attached to Dillingham and the drop defender is slightly closer to the level of the screen than Hunter Dickinson in the previous clip, however Dillingham is still able to get up an attempt, this time with a left-handed gather.

Even when defenders were playing at the level, like in this play against Oakland in the tournament, Dillingham was undeterred. Kentucky once again is running 77 and Dillingham seizes the space given to take a deep 3 early in the shot clock, despite Zvonimir Ivisic’s defender actually quickly showing at the level.

What makes Dillingham’s shooting ability so enticing is how rare it is to find a prospect who’s not only capable of drawing aggressive coverages with the ball in his hands, but also capitalizing on the attention they draw as shooters off the ball. As previously discussed in Ja’Kobe Walter’s evaluation, attacking closeouts as a shooting threat is of upmost importance. And while Walter’s shot mechanics could limit his effectiveness drawing and attacking closeouts, Dillingham has no such concerns mechanically, along with having an even better process attacking closeouts.

Dillingham was deployed off-ball this season more than any point in his career and shot an astounding 42/88 (47.7%) on Catch and Shoot 3’s. Even more impressive was Dillingham’s ability to parlay the hard closeouts his shooting efficiency attracted into high percentage shots for himself or teammates.

In this clipped play Florida switches the spread PNR placing the big, Thomas Haugh, on Dillingham. Eventually the ball is swung to Antonio Reeves, who drives, causing Haugh to provide gap help. On Haugh’s recovery Dillingham quickly ‘punches’ the gap, drives, and hits a runner. In this play Haugh executes scheme perfectly by funneling Dillingham towards help, but the nuance in Dillingham’s game off the catch renders this advantage.

Dillingham has a wonderful habit of running through the catch, or ‘stampeding’, on closeouts. This creates the finishing angle in the play above, and can be seen even more clearly in the play below. Kentucky flows into a double Zoom action for Antonio Reeves after they’re unable to create a quality look out of the empty corner PNR. When Reeves is stonewalled on his drive he kicks it back out to Dillingham at the top of the key, and Dillingham’s stampede allows him to create the quick separation to finish high off the glass.

Dillingham’s game off the catch can best be described as kinetic in my opinion, whether the possession ends in a Dillingham shot or not, he is able to keep the offense in motion and the defense shifting with his keen sense of court mapping.

In the following clip, Kentucky runs through two hapless spread PNRs with Reed Sheppard as the primary ballhandler. On the 2nd PNR Sheppard rejects the screen and dribbles to the right side of the floor where Dillingham is stationed. As Dillingham lifts from the wing, his defender pressures the ball, prompting a switch onto Dillingham. The switch demands urgency, and Dillingham is able to weaponize this brief advantage on a subpar closeout from an otherwise excellent defender in Cam Matthews.

Dillingham’s drive is an expert display of manipulating defenders with your eyes and tempo, as he waits for both Matthews and the primary rim protector here (Tolu Smith) to commit before eventually making the dumpoff pass to Aaron Bradshaw for a dunk. While some may see this as a combination of bad defense from Smith and solid passing vision from Dillingham, Dillingham’s arsenal of pullups, runners, and floaters, necessitates Smith lifting from his position closer to the basket.

Dillingham’s technical refinement operating off-ball, when paired with high volume off the dribble shooting, amounts to an offensive weapon which could potentially change the entire complexion of a team’s offense. Instead of having a shooter who can only force the defense to react when placed in a set of ideal conditions, a shooter with the depth of tools Dillingham possesses can activate defensive pressure points simply by participating in the play.

An example of this effect can be seen below. Miami runs Iverson 77 Shallow, where Nijel Pack receives the entry pass as he’s cutting across the opposite wing (the Iverson component of the action), and the two elbow screeners flip to initiate the 77 Shallow phase of the action. As previously discussed, 77 consists of double drag screens, however 77 Shallow is a variation where the screens are staggered so the 2nd screener can make a shallow cut to the 3 point line. As Pack takes the 1st screen, the Pitt big man quickly shows to disrupt the rhythm of Pack, a respected off the dribble 3-point shooter. Ideally this should place Blake Hinson in a situation where he’s forced to cover the roller and the shallow cutting shooter, but George is a tick late to lift which kills the window for the advantage to be created. Pack continues dribbling towards the right wing and the gap help from Jaland Lowe carves open a driving lane for AJ Casey who finishes on the drive.

This play encapsulates the interplay between actions designed to get shooters open on the East-West plane, to create North-South gaps for drivers to attack. And shooters who are prolific off the bounce and off the catch function as queens on the chessboard, in how they activate defensive pressure points in either manner.

These versatile shooters also serve as force multipliers for other shooters effectiveness. Take the play below for example, Dallas intends to run ‘Motion Strong Zoom’, where Tim Hardaway Jr. runs off double staggers from the corner (Motion Strong), swings the ball to Dereck Lively, and screens away to initiate the Zoom action for Kyrie Irving. However, as Irving approaches THJ to receive the first screen he is denied, or ‘top-locked’, by Jalen Suggs. This prompts Hardaway to take a handoff from Lively as his (Hardaway Jr’s) initial defender, Anthony Black, and Suggs simultaneously switch their assignments. Suggs switching onto Hardaway Jr. and Black switching onto Irving.

This sequence is so important because with Suggs and Black switching the Mavericks essentially have them dead to rights, as seen in the frame below.

Suggs has lost the battle of leverage, with the switch placing him on Hardaway Jr’s outside shoulder, and Hardaway Jr. being a respected shooter in his own right forces Goga Bitadze to lift slightly out of his drop coverage. This rotation creates the angle for Hardaway to make the short skip pass to Irving, effectively inverting the floor and creating a window for Irving to continue the advantage with a pass to the rolling Lively.

This sequence is a perfect distillation of the synergy between a dynamic off-the-dribble shooting threat and a dynamic, albeit more conventional, shooter. And plays like these are just the tip of the iceberg when it comes to manufacturing offense between these two archetypes. Utilizing shooters as screeners has come into vogue in a major way recently, and perhaps there’s no team better at combining these elements within their offense than the recent NCAA champion UConn Huskies.

In the following clip, UConn runs a wildly intricate action I could only term as ‘Pistol Motion Strong Ghost Flex Screen the Screener’. Despite the overly verbose terminology, this core concept of this action is quite simple, UConn taking their best and most versatile shooter in Cam Spencer and weaponizing him by involving him in as many phases of the offense as possible. As Spencer fakes the Cross Screen for the player in the weakside corner and receives the down screen (Ghost Flex), his defender tightly trails, attempts to deny the curl, and funnel Spencer into Alex Karaban’s defender so they can switch. Switching being the preferred defensive scheme because of Marquette’s similarly sized lineup and the lack of off the dribble scoring threat UConn’s players possess. UConn uses this perceived weakness against Marquette here by having Spencer set a down screen for Karaban as he’s curling towards the basket, springing Karaban open for 3.

I find these clips relevant to Rob Dillingham’s projection because these are the ways his offensive skillset can manifest not only in scoring opportunities for himself, but for others as well. The confluence of Dilling

Conclusion

In summation, I think all these players have viable skillsets as shooters, however my general philosophy when it comes to the draft is to pick for scarcity. Especially when it comes to a team using a high pick, players who provide unique skillsets allow teams to pivot stylistically and adapt to changes in the NBA meta. When it comes to the three prospects previously discussed, I chose them specifically because it was my belief these prospects main value proposition was their shooting talent. Each possess strengths and weaknesses compared to the others in the other facets of their game, but ultimately if a team is picking any of the three it should be for what their shooting ability unlocks within the team’s offense. And in my estimation Robert Dillingham is the only prospect of the three whose shooting and shooting adjacent skillset warrant a high, lottery level, pick because of the previously discussed attributes. Ja’Kobe Walter, who has an interesting profile as a shooter and scorer, doesn’t meet certain thresholds specifically as a shooter to warrant a higher pick, and Melvin Ajinca is too deficient in certain shooting adjacent qualities to be useful outside of the conventional shooting specialist role.

Prior to delving into these prospect’s games I hadn’t considered shooting ability holistically, I’d previously weighed shot mechanics as most essential to projecting shooting. Having worked through this evaluation I realized early on assessing shooting from a purely mechanical perspective naturally introduced aesthetic bias because there’s no idealized shooting form. Ultimately, recognizing this implicit bias lead to a clearer perspective of other flaws in my shooting criteria, flaws which didn’t lie in the characteristics being accounted for, but instead how rigid my philosophy had been overall.

As I dug deeper and deeper into these prospects I realized scouting shooting talent is as much about evaluating evidence which is absent from a player’s shot profile as evaluating the data currently available. The less variables I was able to see a player interact with, the less confident I was in how their shooting ability would translate to the next level. And finally, perhaps even more importantly with prospects who are shooters first and foremost, recognizing there may be no greater impediment to an offense than a player with an unwarranted reputation as a shooter. This is in reference to the ‘active’ vs ‘passive’ spacer dichotomy previously mentioned, as the narrower a player’s shooting can be applied, the less space they are providing an offense.

The days of conventional shooting specialists are long gone, and avoiding spending valuable draft capital on a player who may fall into this category is an imperative.

The post 2024 Draft Shooting Heuristic appeared first on Swish Theory.

We will cover four aspects of athletic display in basketball: offensive rim dominance, offensive midrange dominance, offensive perimeter dominance and defensive dominance. Each of our four examples demonstrate their “flex” in vastly different ways, but to the same result: getting or preventing buckets in a way that will persist as competition rises dramatically.

We’ll define the term athletic dominance as we go.

Rim Dominance: Jonathan Mogbo, San Francisco

Rims are not safe around Jonathan Mogbo. The guard-turned-big is only third in the NCAA to Zach Edey and Ryan Kalkbrenner in dunks, despite being seven and four inches shorter, respectively. Mid-major teams have elite athletes, too.

The number one most important tool for Mogbo is his catch radius. Catch radius defines how big your target is as a roller, and is constructed of several factors: max and standing verticals, vertical load time, wingspan, hand size. Mogbo scores highly on all of these. But catch radius is also about timing, and being physically able to change your location at a moment’s notice. That is a cognitive aspect, namely one’s reaction time, but a physical one too.

Can you change your short strides into long ones, and vice-versa? Mogbo can. He is capable of skying a foot or more above the rim to crash upon the rim. But he can also sneak in quicker oops, reminiscent of a middle hitter in volleyball. He can catch bad passes with his range but also very good ones with precision and timing.

A framework around – “outflexing” or “physical dominance” – whatever term you prefer, lies in how your body relates to others. Namely, how your body can physically withstand abrupt change but also resist a counterforce. Mogbo, in his true versatile fashion, is capable of both. Despite his bulky, wide-shouldered frame, Mogbo is capable of getting low to the ground and into an opponent’s body. Then, uprighting himself with great balance to sling a pass or attack the rim.

With alley oops he’s skyrocketing himself upward, but getting low-to-high near the basket is a major advantage, too.

Finally, the withstanding force. Mogbo has quick feet, which, again, are capable of chopping in an instant. This combined with his wide frame and great balance mean he is difficult to blow by, especially good at absorbing drives, hitting a roller or boxing out.

Essentially, Mogbo is capable of surpassing final walls of defense with his catch radius and sneaking through with his timing. His agility, foot speed and balance allow him to be specific in his movements; his strength allows him to withstand drives while driving himself into an opponent’s chest. Despite being only 6’9”, Mogbo is the premiere vertical threat in his class (with respect to Edey and Holmes) by blending in all these aspects.

Midrange Dominance: Isaiah Collier, USC

Just, and likely more important, than shooting a high percentage in the midrange is the ability to get there in the first place. Often the first item young ballhandlers struggle with at Summer League or the pre-season is getting past that first line of defense. As guards rise through competition levels, the ground coverage and ground resistance capabilities of their median point of attack defender rise exponentially.

Enter Isaiah Collier.

If Zay wanted to, he could have a picnic, take a nap, read a book in the paint. He is as comfortable breaking down a first line of defense as anyone in college basketball. Not built like a freshman, Collier can withstand a hard hand-check once, twice, however many times is needed to either power his way with a drive or power his way with a post up.

No size of defender is capable of withstanding Collier’s force, routinely pushing bigs backwards into the paint with choppy but strong strides. Because of this, no door is truly closed for Collier.

We see again the importance of being able to get low in an instant before popping back up at will. Collier is capable of doing this with short, quick steps to better position his heavy frame, with rare lower body stability to withstand the shifting of weight.

Collier weaponizes his paint touches well, particularly improving in efficiency as the season went on. He has the second best two point shooting percentage of any high major freshman with 200+ two point attempts. In fact, of all the players since 2008 who are categorized as Scoring Guards in the barttorvik.com database, Collier shoots the best on twos. He is also sixth in assist percentage. These inside the arc numbers combined with his passing is similar, at least statistically, to De’Aaron Fox and D’Angelo Russell’s NCAA profiles.

Collier is highly creative, which combines perfectly with his paint pressure. He is capable of getting to the “flex” spots of the floor that most bend the defense, and then is inventive in finding the best thing to do with the ball. When he uses his burst directly into a high speed pass, it may lead to turnovers here and there but the reward is often wide open layups.

This creativity is a big reason why Collier can get to finishing angles inside the arc, in spite of being a limited vertical athlete.

He can simply burst by his opponent, back him down, take elongated strides, create space with an arm bar, by backpedaling, or spinning into his body, or a hip check.

When he uses his acceleration in combination with appropriate application of strength, Collier is nearly impossible to contain. That’s what we’re looking for in midrange dominance, and easy bets say Collier will do just fine getting into his strength areas at the NBA level, too.

Perimeter Dominance: Rob Dillingham, Kentucky

Rob Dillingham has taken 128 threes and made 45% of them. He has taken 98 deep twos and made 44% of them. But it’s not the efficiency that stands out, but rather how Dillingham is getting his looks. It looks like he is playing on ice skates.

Dillingham’s movement ability is impressive. Not just bursty, not just quick, but also agile, nimble, shifty. When most players would be disoriented playing with such pace and skittishness, these traits are automatic for the Kentucky freshman. With space to operate, Dillingham is the best in class at hunting for perimeter openings.

His athleticism permits him to create horizontal space: with a wide cross or tween, he can shift his weight seamlessly to cover more distance than the opponent expects out of the listed 6’3” Dillingham. His body swings violently back and forth, as Rob utilizes his true superpower: his balance.

He uses this balance (in combination, again with a tight handle) to toy with opponents, exemplifying the hunting part of out-flexing.

His athleticism also allows him to create negative space: decelerating at full speed, Dillingham is able to go from low to the ground to upright in an instant. Yet again, the balance. Not just to be able to stop on a dime, but to then *reload* for your shot, requires moving in three distinct directions (sprint forward -> decelerate to a halt -> leap forward into a shot) in a second.

The important part of Dillingham’s game is not just that he has the arsenal, but is clever in deploying it. That functionality appears automatic as he predicts where his opponent will stick their top foot, already attacking as they do.

I have harped on the importance of changing your body shape from low to high, small to big and vice-versa, but Dillingham adds dimensionality to that. When he’s in his perimeter playground, Dillingham can change from slow to fast, low to high, high to low, left to right, front to back, accelerating fast, decelerating on a dime, all of that. While closer to the basket dominance requires more power, Dillingham is both sleek and stable in hunting perimeter openings.

One additional, significant benefit to that comes in his foul-drawing. While his free throw rate is still low for a given prospect, in consideration of his predilection for distance shooting and small stature, even a 0.25 free throw rate is enough to provide another dimension of value. The aesthetics stand out again, as does the method. When Dillingham attacks, he attacks. Weaponizing his deceleration but also shiftiness in general, Dillingham is able to get into a bigger opponent’s body with ease. The physical toll is likely a lot to manage over a full NBA season, but it is an important part of the arsenal. His ability to seek out physicality keeps defenders honest as they try to blanket his perimeter space.

Defensive Dominance: Ryan Dunn, UVA

Take everything we’ve learned about offensive dominance. How sleek while bursty movement creates force. Now, try to negate it – all of it – in a single player. That player looks like Ryan Dunn.

The first important quality is stickiness. How much can you stay glued to the hip of a perimeter creator without fouling? Opponents shoot a remarkably low 22% from two on drives when guarded by Ryan Dunn. He suffocates with long strides, chopping feet to then react in an instant, sliding in lockstep with the offensive player.

It’s partially his high feel overlapping here, as his instantaneous reaction speed allows him to gamble in ways that still keep him in the play. It would be bad technique, but Dunn recovers better than anyone. His 10.6% block rate, despite being only 6’8”, speaks for itself.

His wingspan also helps to close gaps quickly. He springs into action with his 7’1” length which matches well with his burst and second jump speed. The court shrinks for Dunn, where he is a beat away from making his presence felt at any given point. This is the ideal for a defensive forward: blocking off space with length; covering space with speed.

He can withstand force, too. His lower body maintains its springiness while also being extremely durable, a rare combination. Dunn was built to prevent buckets all over the court.

On any given possession, UVA trusts Dunn to play like an aggressive strong safety, hedging, icing, blitzing, trapping, monitoring whatever gaps. Dunn has done it all as he patrols the court. Some may saw this is a negative – NBA players shouldn’t gamble with abandon like this. But that is what Dunn has been asked to do, and he performs it magnificently. We know what happens when you ramp up his activity, and it’s only good things. Despite being top 5 in the NCAA in block rate and top 50 in steal rate, Dunn only fouls three times every forty minutes. In fact, no other high major player in the barttorvik.com database has improved upon his combination of steals, blocks and foul rate, with only Nerlens Noel coming close.

Putting it all together, Dunn stops rim dominance with his length, quick first/second/third leaps and his ability to withstand force. He cuts off drives preventing access to the midrange, while also blocking off passing lanes that would create easy looks. On the perimeter he is able to stick with guards with timely sliding. His long lower legs propel him back and forth while also staying on balance after dramatic movements over a distance. He is nearly the perfect defensive wing, capable of stopping actions from any angle. The offense may be nearly nonexistent, but there are few better defensive prospects than Ryan Dunn.

The post How Prospects Outflex Their Opponent appeared first on Swish Theory.

When I evaluate a prospect’s offense, I ask myself these two questions first:

1. Will this prospect ever be a primary initiator/decision-maker?
2. If the answer to question one is no, how does he impact winning next to other primaries?

Aside from nabbing stars, locating players who contribute to winning, especially in the postseason, is what teams should seek in the draft. The vast majority of elite teams roster one (or two) players who command high usage, either as the offensive orchestrator or deadly scorer. The best players in the NBA are both.

From there, we can understand the value of drafting players with additive skills – shooting, passing and defending being the three most notable. Scouts traditionally discuss scalability, or the ability to move up and down the offensive hierarchy as needed, through the lens of three-and-D wings. 

Now more than ever, centers with expansive offensive skill sets are ubiquitous among great offenses. Going beyond the Joel Embiids and Nikola Jokics of the world, the decision-making ‘hub’ big sill feels like an undervalued archetype. The value of ones like Wendell Carter Jr, Chet Holmgren, Draymond Green and Jusuf Nurkic are clear.

Centers also must add value playing next to other ball-dominant stars, no matter the position. So how can bigs, especially non-shooting bigs, add value without the basketball? 

In the two years since I first discussed modern, scalable NBA bigs, the archetype is as crucial as ever. Big men orchestrate more and more NBA offense, burning defenses with dribble handoffs, short rolls, above-the-break threes and inside-out passing. We can evaluate and project frontcourt prospects through this lens. Centers aren’t exempt from joining the off-ball revolution. 

As I wrote before: 

“Conversations about scalability must extend beyond sharp, spacing wings. They must include these traditional-sized big men who may not be spot-up artists, but who maximize offensive harmony with flowing offense from the mid and high post.”

Maintaining a scoring threat is paramount to commanding defensive attention even for connective bigs, even more so than I realized when I wrote the first part in 2022. Many of the bigs in this archetype who do not become long-term NBA rotation staples (Trevion Williams, Jaylin Williams, etc) can’t punish defenses as a shooter or a play finisher.

Still, I see five main areas modern off-ball bigs should excel:

Advantage extender

I previously titled this category ‘short roll,’ though I think advantage extender better captures this skill. Can you punish a defense at a numbers disadvantage? Bigs who amplify their teammates’ pull-up shooting gravity and playmaking while thriving in the scramble drill match perfectly with stars. Rather than commanding possessions, they increase the odds of their advantage creation leading to points.

A key for this skill: can you command defensive attention as a scoring threat? If a playoff defense doesn’t respect a player’s scoring, they can neutralize their playmaking skill.

DHO Keep/Flow

Potent offenses seek to attain north-south movement, hoping to end as many possessions possible at the bucket, East-west flow opens up creases to run through, commandeered by bigs screening, handing off and creating with their handles. Can you compromise a fooled defense? Can coaches rely on you to initiate offense?

Close quarters finishing

Converting advantages created by stars is the easiest, most classic path to scaling down. In the case of centers, that often means finishing high-value shots at the cup and drawing fouls. Can you finish from a variety of angles with either hand? Do you have the catch radius to snare bad passes?

Force that closeout!

Shooting is a cherry on top for off-ball bigs, assuming they are true center-sized (shooting needed and height are inversely related). Bigs can compensate with their height and size, but threatening a defense from the outside and forcing them to pay attention is a plus.

Can you hit shots from different spots and different platforms? Can you force and attack a bad closeout? What about a good one?

Transition

Pushing the break after a block or rebound eliminates the need to pass to the PG, speeding up transition opportunities. Can you threaten the defense with speed as a transition attacker? Maybe more importantly, can you flow into actions and make decisions to set up teammates? 

With that out of the way, let’s discuss how the bigs of the 2024 draft class fare.

Alex Sarr: Advantage extender, DHO Keep/Flow, Force that closeout!*, Transition

From his single NBL season, Sarr grew as a functional dribbler and playmaker out of the short roll. He’s a far more confident decision-maker on the catch, punishing defenses at a numbers disadvantage with quick kicks and laydowns. Sarr doesn’t need to shoot the lights out to excel on offense, though his low volume especially is troubling.

Freakish coordination and movement skill turn Sarr’s ceiling into an endless staircase. At the moment, Sarr already burns defenders down the court after a defensive stop and wins in isolation against pro bigs. Sarr is building modern NBA offense habits, dribbling into dribble handoffs and screens as a reverse initiator.

Dribbling centers unlock offensive options and Sarr’s mobility plus the counters and creativity he already has are auspicious signs. He might not finish with strong efficiency due to his limited vertical pop, but his potential to initiate modern NBA-style actions only adds to his best-in-class upside. 

Donovan Clingan: Close-quarters finishing

Donovan Clingan’s main ways to pressure defense without the ball include screening and rolling. But without the ball, Clingan fades into the background on offense. He’s unfortunately not a great post scorer as his stiffness limits his angle carving ability. There’s no semblance of a jumper there either.

Thankfully for Clingan, his defense is phenomenal. That’s a topic for another day. We’ve seen plenty of defensive anchors succeed with limited offensive games like Gobert, Capela, Kessler etc. Clingan’s play finishing and height should always keep him somewhat afloat offensively.

Yves Missi: DHO Keep/Flow, Close-quarters finishing, Transition*

Though Yves Missi likely is closer to his 6’10 high school measurement, he plays well above his height with vertical pop and length. Catch radius is critical for lob targets and rim runners, which will be Missi’s main path to offensive value. 

Missi skies above the rim, catching passes well outside his frame for lobs and soft finishes. He’s efficient around the rim — Missi is one of 21 college basketball players this year with 50 or more dunks shooting over 70% at the rim and the only freshman to do it.

Processing speed will be a major swing skill for Missi, especially given his advanced ball-handling flashes, whipping out counters to beat bigs to the bucket and set into post position. If the feel progresses, the sky is the limit for Missi.

Daron Holmes: DHO Keep/Flow, Close-quarters finishing, Force that closeout!, Transition

The case of Daron Holmes’ draft stock is mysterious. According to the Rookie Scale consensus board, Holmes sits at 31 in the eyes of the mainstream with his spot on many prominent mocks even lower. I can’t figure out why for the life of me, especially given his snug fit in the modern game.

Offenses operate through big men more than ever, planting them as hubs for off-ball motion and simple advantage creation. And Holmes, a spacing big with a unique handle, should pique the interest of offensive coordinators. Unlike most lean perimeter-oriented bigs, Holmes possesses traditional big skills — screening, sealing, pick-and-roll defense, finishing — developing those before his metamorphosis.

Aside from spacing the floor and finishing at the rim, Holmes’ varied handle should allow him to function as a genuine hub. How many bigs in college run invert pick and roll as the ball-handler and move downhill to finish, shoot or pass?

Holmes isn’t the smoothest processor which could limit his ceiling as a playmaker. Regardless of any high-end feel limitations, the dribbling, strength and shooting could beget Naz Reid-esque offensive impact.

Kyle Filipowski: Advantage extender, DHO Keep/Flow, Close-quarters finishing, Force that closeout!*, Transition

In theory, Filipowski could easily hit all five tools of scalability. It will depend on the degree of his shooting and finishing — can Filipowski reliably force closeouts and finish through traffic? His volume and efficiency improved from deep this past season though the percentages across his career aren’t stellar. Filpowski is a good, not great finisher among centers (58.6% HC at the rim) and his limited vertical pop and stiffness could trouble him against NBA length.

If he draws defenses as a scoring threat, his passing and ball-handling are among the best in the class. He’s a passing virtuoso, firing assists from the post, on the short roll, in transition and as a primary ballhandler. Few players with Flip’s physicality and strength handle and pass how he can. His potential offensive versatility is massive.

Kel’el Ware: Close-quarters finishing, Force that closeout!

Shooting is the key to unlocking Ware’s scalability. Like a few other bigs on this list, he’s best with the ball in his hands, facing up and swiveling into shots from the post. He’s a springy vertical athlete, rendering him a seamless pairing with great passer (something he hasn’t had in college).

Ware’s three-point volume dipped, though he has a history of deep-range shooting going back to his days at Oregon and in high school. Threatening defenses as a spacer will be all the off-ball value he needs if Ware hits a high defensive outcome.

Zach Edey: Close-quarters finishing

I’m concerned about Zach Edey’s ability to scale down and impact winning without the ball in his hands. Edey’s touch is undeniable and paired with his gargantuan status, he should be a good finisher at the next level. But when passes don’t feed Edey post touches, how does he contribute in a meaningful way?

Historically, high-usage college players who aren’t great passers tend to fail. Take this Barttorvik query of college players with +30% usage and -15% assist rate:

It’s a mixed group, with one mega-star and a few busts. Aside from the Boogie outlier, the ones who stuck in the league shot the ball and spaced the floor (McDermott, Warren). How will Zach Edey share the floor with ball-dominant players? If he improves his processing speed, Edey could connect teammates and extend plays rather than finish them. If not, he feels like a microwave scorer sixth man at his ceiling.

Oso Ighodaro: Advantage extender, DHO Keep/Flow

Does unathletic Brandon Clarke pique your interest? That’s the question we’re pondering about Oso Ighodaro, In theory, his connective skills are abundant — Oso’s floater game is advanced (54.5% on runners) and he’s a capable passer to cutters from a handoff. There’s a recipe for a useful release valve, especially with a pull-up shooting threat.

Ighodaro struggles to elevate through contact and his finishing in the restricted area. He doesn’t space the floor. If Ighodaro can’t threaten defenses as a scorer, he likely won’t stick. But if the floater hints at shooting development, Ighodaro could find a role as a valuable rotation player, lubricating his team’s offensive flow.

Jonathan Mogbo: DHO Keep/Flow, Close-quarters finishing, Transition

Jonathan Mogbo is a dunk machine. Only two players in the country dunked more than Mogbo, whose NBA intrigue comes largely from his bounce and explosion. With a capable handle, Mogbo flashed pro vision and some high-post chops. Gen-Z Kenneth Faried juices up offenses with great passers.

Watching Mogbo in person further illuminated his stature. Despite being fairly short at 6’7, Mogbo is a brick wall with springs in his shoes. Mogbo snags balls out of the air like a wide receiver. He operated primarily from the post, so working to extend advantages will help him find a home in an NBA rotation. There’s some wacko creator upside if Mogbo truly harnesses his handle to maximize his athletic gifts, expanding his possible utility to on and off the ball.

The post Defining Scalable Bigs appeared first on Swish Theory.

Stability: ever-present calmness as the home crowd watches you with bated breath. The senses are overloaded, but the internal dialogue remains the loudest as the player dribbles the ball into a rhythm. Feeling the grooves of the basketball, the player releases the free throw shot with a sigh of relief as it leaves their fingertips.

Chaos and stability are often considered polar opposites but that notion couldn’t be further from the truth. Chaos can not be created without stability preceding it and neither can it be reverted to stability if there is no chaos. It’s two sides of the same coin, coinciding in a symbiotic relationship.

In its essence, basketball captures this conundrum perfectly. The game is built on its dynamism, ever-changing conditions that are presented to players and their teams, consistently being asked to adapt to the flow of chaos and stability.

As the rhythm of basketball echoes the interplay between chaos and stability, how does a young player develop through that? What allows them to reach that path of stardom in this subtle dance between spontaneity and composure? Especially when it may not seem apparent, and those players end up reaching those heights in unexpected, unorthodox avenues.

I believe the answer to these questions lies within three concepts that have cemented and formed my philosophy on NBA draft scouting and player projection. These three pillars of my philosophy for projecting stars are development curves, skill intersections, and role malleability.

False Ceilings

Let me start with the first pillar: development curves. Development is never linear and for that reason, it is crucial to watch how a prospect plays over their basketball careers and how many meaningful experiences they have throughout that young career. It helps paint the bigger picture with a prospect, understanding what skills they started with and how they’ve developed those skills over a period of time. 

To me, this is what a development curve is. Imagine a graph that charted the progressions and regression of a player over time, the average line would look like an exponential curve between those deviations whether that player is improving or in some cases getting worse.

That’s what is happening here: the red dots represent the different improvements in skills over a y-axis and x-axis, axes that showcase production and the timeframe respectively. Different players have different curves, some less steep than the example above and some of them where the growth is far more exponential, a line rapidly reaching new heights in a short amount of time.

Extremely steep development curves are where NBA stars are born. This type of growth in a prospect can be explained with various reasons, for example, it could be a physical growth spurt or they improved their shot or maybe they even begin to understand the game to a higher degree after starting to play the game at a later age compared to their peers.

Regardless of what that reasoning may be, this is what affects the steepness of the curve. When growth happens rapidly in a short amount of time and it leads to efficient production, it opens up the capacity to take on more of a workload as a player, acquiring new skills as the foundational skills that preceded them bolster.

Oftentimes, these types of development curves are hiding in plain sight due to the aesthetic and archetypal biases a prospect may be confined to. Coined by Matt Powers, my colleagues here at Swish Theory have frequently delved into what it means to be a false ceiling prospect. False ceiling prospects are those who have extremely steep development curves, yet their roles often obscure the anticipation of reaching greater heights due to the perceived limited upside.

The best recent example of this is with Franz Wagner, as Michael Neff describes it in his piece, Wagner was a highly productive sophomore at Michigan who was close to the age of a freshman, but likely fell in the draft due to his role on that team. Playing as a connector and a high-level defender, I can see why teams were lower on that type of player, especially when it meant taking a player who may not have enough on-ball equity extremely high.

Today, Franz looks like he should have gone far higher than the 8th pick in hindsight as he toggles between being a secondary and primary creator for the Orlando Magic. For the people who only watched Franz at Michigan, this may have come across as a huge surprise but these higher-level creation reps were hidden in Franz’s tape when he played for a pro team in Germany, ALBA Berlin.

You can see the idea of what Franz would be doing on far higher volume in the league, a crafty pick-and-roll operator with scoring decisiveness that could weaponize his size, touch, footwork, and deceleration on drives.

Taking a glance at his stats at Michigan, another reason why Franz was a false-ceiling prospect is that he was productive and functional in so many areas of basketball. This allowed him to carve out a role seamlessly in the NBA, further enabling him to grow his on-ball creation as he could provide high-level ancillary value to stay on the court while having plenty of opportunities to polish his craft in the pick-and-roll on a 21-51 Orlando Magic team.

The contradiction here is that Franz was a high-floor prospect, and for many, that meant the upside was potentially capped. However, a young player with a high number of baseline skills would inherently have a higher upside due to carving a niche in the NBA early. This idea of upside is further compounded when a player has a complimentary intersection of skills/attributes as Franz does.

A Chain of Skills

Another important idea in projecting stars has been identifying what tools and skills a player might have to lead them down that pathway. What I have come to learn is that more than a singular attribute of a player, it is the connection between those skills and how those intersections project to being functional on a basketball court. This is where my second pillar, skill intersections, comes into play.

Now visualize a steel chain, tightly interlocked between each chainlink that reinforces the overall strength of the chain. You can try to pull on the chain and try to rip it apart but it will maintain its structure, supported by the strength of each link working together.

A basketball player’s skillset and attributes can be similarly imagined, where an individual skill or athletic tool is its own part of the chain. Each skill and tool intersects in unique ways on the court, and sometimes that intersection can even be detrimental. Every player has strengths and weaknesses, but it becomes far more imperative to look at how those strengths intersect with each other and how they can make up for the weaker links in a player’s chain of skills.

For example, let us take a player that is 6’ 7” and is an uber athlete. The player might have NBA size, a great first step, and great leaping tools, these attributes give the player the margins to be a good driver and cutter. However, let’s say this player has a weak handle and sub-par touch. It becomes far more difficult for this player to drive to the rim functionally. When they do get past the first and second lines of defense and there is a presence at the rim, this player will not have the ability to create a counter like a midrange jumper or floater due to the touch. This intersection would then instead become counterproductive, where the weaker handle and touch can be seen as broken chain links that are destructive to the integrity of the overall chain. Due to the depth of talent in the NBA, it would require some truly outlier defense to offset being a 6’ 7” roll man since most NBA bigs can provide that offensive value at a much larger size.

What happens on the flip side of this, when the skills and tools complement each other on the court? Let’s explore how it functioned with Desmond Bane.

The 30th pick in the 2020 NBA draft had spent his last four years prior at TCU, where the 6’6” sharpshooter improved as a shot creator with each year. Extremely productive as a senior, Bane was stretching college defenses thin with his shooting volume and versatility.

Shooting over hard closeouts effectively, making the right passing read out of pick and roll, and being able to funnel wings and slower guards on defense, Bane looked like the makings of a good rotational player at the very least. So why did he end up going so low in the draft in hindsight?

Bane falling to the 30th pick in the 2020 NBA draft was a classic case of anchoring bias. Anchoring bias is a cognitive bias that causes a subject to depend heavily on the first piece of information given to them. In the case of Desmond Bane, it was two data points: his age and negative wingspan.

Indicated by his 13.3 free throw rate, Bane’s handle was still on the weaker side for NBA-caliber wings and guards, making those two data points more prominent for NBA decision-makers. With age being a common proxy for upside and a negative wingspan that could affect his most translatable NBA skill which was shooting, I can understand why teams were hesitant to pick him earlier.

What teams failed to factor in was even with Bane’s negative wingspan, he was truly a unique shooter. He had micro-skills as a shooter that would allow him to operate in NBA margins; his shooting motion was extremely quick and his shooting platform was often away from the long, outstretched arms of defenders due to the high release point.

You could see this consistently in games, even when Bane’s handle took away from his shot windows, he was able to manufacture this space with the usage of screens and creativity when he had to pick up his dribble. Just watch as he tormented a Kansas team with length using his quick and high-release.

Fast forward to the 2023-24 NBA season and Bane looks like an All-Star, the Grizzlies have signed him to a rookie max extension, and the same handle issues are no longer a real concern as he averages 24.4 points a game on 59.7 TS%. How did he get to this point so quickly?

Bane had his flaws but what allowed his game to translate was his complementary intersection of basketball skills and physical attributes. Yes, he had a negative wingspan, and that caused him to gather the ball higher with his handle but the positives he had worked in complementary ways to overcome those issues. Ways that gave him developmental pathways for higher-level creation against better competition.

Drafted to the Grizzlies, Bane would not be required to immediately create like he did his senior year at TCU, where those handling issues would be more problematic at the NBA level. Playing off of creators like Ja Morant, Bane could scale next to these players effectively with his shooting and passing. Primarily as an off-the-catch scorer, Bane could attack tilted defenses with his shooting and straight-line driving, giving him the space to drive more often as the advantage creators on the Grizzlies and simplified role gave Bane the margins to improve his handle. What improved his margins to a higher degree is the unique intersection of shooting skill and uber-strength that Bane had.

Where his handle lacked, upper body strength enabled Bane to get into the chests of defenders and carve space for finishing angles. Due to the degree of shooter he is, he often receives a hard closeout where he could then act upon a defender that was off balance. This, NBA spacing and having a strong lower half would then allow him to consistently add handle counters like different stride lengths, throw-ahead dribbles, and change of pace. This combination of shooting touch and strength at 6’ 6” made him a strong play finisher and improved his handle in a short amount of time, allowing the Grizzlies to scale his usage up as a creator as time passed by.

Bane’s positive skills and attributes meshed well with his NBA role, each positive link in his chain of skills accommodating where the chain was cracked. Those chainlinks grew stronger over time and it led to a chain of skills that was far stronger than before.

This process of improvement would not be possible if it were not for the number of roles Bane played throughout his pre-NBA career that let him scale quickly in the league. As important as it is to identify a player’s chain of skills and understand what development curve they are on, a common trend that I have begun to notice with unorthodox players that grow quickly in a short period is role malleability.

How Do You Help Your Team Win?

We’re finally here, the crux of this piece and my third pillar of player projection: role malleability.

To me, role malleability is another step above the commonly used term in the discipline of basketball, role versatility. While role versatility looks at the spectrum of roles a player can navigate, role malleability takes a magnifying glass to that concept and looks at how productive a player is in those multiple roles and more importantly how quickly that player can adapt to a change in role.

Why would that be important? Remember how I talked about basketball being this subtle dance between chaos and stability? As an invasion sport, games in which the aim is to invade an opponent’s territory and score a goal or point, basketball is mostly in a state of chaos and this can often make it difficult for players to adapt to different basketball requirements quickly, especially for younger players.

Since the realm of sports is infused with the uncertainty of outcomes (Baimbridge, 1998), the athletes and spectators must therefore be prepared to adapt to the changing circumstances (Rahman, Husain, 2022). The productivity of a basketball player is in essence how effectively and quickly they are meeting ever-changing demands on the court.

Whether it’s from game to game or possession to possession, this flexibility to adapt to new constraints quickly and consistently can be used as a proxy for high-level feel in scouting. As Evan Zaucha explains in his piece, he describes feel as the sum of a player’s pattern recognition, visual processing (especially spatial recognition), and processing speed. Role malleability causes a player to consistently test these tenets of feel and this is why I believe it can open more pathways to stardom for a player.

Furthermore, I believe this theory on role malleability is further rooted in the work and research done on the concepts of cognitive flexibility in sports psychology. 

Cognitive flexibility is the human ability to adapt cognitive processing strategies to face new and unexpected conditions in the environment (Cañas et al. 2003). When a person performs a complex task their behavior needs to be adapted to the environmental conditions in which the task is being performed. However, these conditions continue to change as the task develops, therefore in order to be flexible, a person has to focus attention on these conditions on a regular basis. In addition to this, in order to adapt their behavior to the new conditions, the person needs to restructure their knowledge so as to effectively interpret the new situation and the new task requirements(Cañas et al. 2005). 

Cognitive processing strategies, in the context of this definition, are a sequence of operations that search through a problem space (Payne et al. 1993). In other words, role malleability is this exact concept of adapting different cognitive processing strategies to various stimuli. The rate at which younger players can process and adapt to new stimuli enables the mastery of skills in different environments, which therefore gives players the ability to develop new micro-skills upon their foundational skills.

This has been seen in research for other sports. Evidence for adaptability has been reported in unstructured, non-coached games of cricket and soccer (Araujo et al., 2010; Phillips et al., 2010a; Weissensteiner et al., 2009). The variability (e.g. different environment, different ball) experienced by players provided them with an opportunity to develop their sport-specific adaptability; although appearing to specialize early, the extreme variability in constraints they experienced allowed them to benefit from important aspects of both early specialization (accumulation of practice hours) and sampling (Potter, 2017).

A 2018 study (by Reddy et al.) found that brain state flexibility accompanied motor-skill acquisition. They proposed a time-time network for the application of graph theory in brain networks. The results were quite intriguing as they identified two canonical brain states associated with motor sequence learning. One key element they found was that the brain switches between states more frequently in later stages of learning. I believe this element lends itself to the adaptive part of role malleability. Problem-solving becomes more creative and layered when there is true mastery of skills.

Playing different offensive or defensive roles gives the player the opportunity to master the base skills needed to perform that role. With new constraints, players can keep adding micro-skills in response. As the rate of improvement increases, it is a sign that the player is capable of more, and coaches can then increase their workload and introduce them to a new set of constraints. 

This process leading to skill acquisition is the reason why I believe so many players who experience this throughout their young careers have experienced early success in the modern NBA. The most recent examples of this are players like Franz Wagner, Desmond Bane, Jalen Williams, Scottie Barnes, Austin Reaves, Gordon Hayward, and Brandon Miller. 

These players played several different roles over a wide range of competition levels, enabling them to master skills in those roles which could translate when adapting to more complex constraints. This allowed them to acquire new skills far more rapidly as their usage increased.

Oftentimes coaches and players will talk about the game slowing down for star players; I believe this is essentially what they mean. In the chaos of an invasion sport, stardom is found in those who find stability in that very chaos. This is due to the mastery of different roles lending itself to processing the same decisions at a quicker rate, unfazed by new obstacles thrown in the player’s way.  

A prime example of this is the OKC Thunder’s Jalen Williams. Jalen Williams played three years for the Santa Clara Broncos before he got to the NBA, where he played many offensive roles throughout his college career. Before getting to Santa Clara, Williams had a massive growth spurt from 6’ 0” to 6’ 6” by his senior year in high school. Playing as a point guard his entire life up until that point, his ball skills were still there but he had to get accustomed to his new measurements. It takes a while for a player to get used to being coordinated with their new body, William’s body was a new set of constraints for him to recalibrate. 

William’s coaches eased him into offensive usage, playing mostly as a connector attacking closeouts his freshman year, growing into more of a second-side creator his sophomore year, and finally excelling in primary usage on the ball his junior year. Jalen William’s unique intersection of ball handling, touch, and feel at his size allowed him to scale to a number of different roles in his junior year, putting up production regardless of what obstacle was thrown at him. 

Due to his mastery of skills in various roles, he could find stability in the chaos of new constraints. The efficiency was an indication of that mastery and a sign that Jalen Williams could take on more of a workload against better competition. The role malleability Williams has shown he could acquire more skills at a more rapid rate, causing his development curve to become steeper. Today, Williams is the secondary creator for the second seed in the Western Conference in only year two. He’s been a swiss-army-knife wing that has been highly productive in his main role, shooting 44.7% from the arc and an overall 62.8 TS% on the season so far.

Even in the NBA, his level of role malleability still lends itself to stability when he has to operate as the primary creator in instances. He’s truly on a path to stardom as he continues to refine his skills and acquire new ones as a creator.

Shifting gears back to the draft, are there any players that fit these three pillars that I have defined? Are there any players that are highly role malleable, due to their intersection of skills allowing them to consistently adapt to new circumstances? Are any of these players on a steep development curve due to their ability to gain new skills by adapting quickly?

Enter Johnny Furphy.

The Case For Johnny Furphy

Johnny Furphy is a 19-year-old freshman who is currently starting for the 2023-24 Kansas Jayhawks. Hailing from Melbourne, Australia, Furphy comes from an athletic family deeply rooted in sports. His father, Richard, made a career as a professional Australian rules football player, while his mother achieved bronze in the Junior Olympics for diving. His older sister plays soccer for Santa Clara and his older brother played basketball and is now a professional Australian football player.

Growing up in such a competitive household, where sports were a way of life, had a significant impact on Furphy. Johnny’s brother, Joe, who is five years older, played a pivotal role in sparking Johnny’s interest in basketball. Johnny Furphy started by playing pick-up with his older brother and his brother’s friends. Being undersized and the youngest for the longest time, Furphy gained an edge that you can see flare consistently when he’s on the basketball court.

For the longest time, Furphy was one of the smaller players on the court. Basketball was always the sport he enjoyed the most, but Furphy played other sports like Australian rules football and cricket during his time in school.

At the height of the pandemic, things drastically changed for Furphy. He was a late bloomer, but the former 5’ 8” guard had grown to 6’ 8” in a short time, a massive growth spurt as reported by Shreyas Laddha of the Kansas City Star. However, due to the strict COVID restrictions in Melbourne, Furphy could not play organized basketball for nearly two years.

Essentially losing his early high school years of basketball, Furphy had to get used to his new body, especially in the context of basketball. Furphy had to get his new body up to speed with all of the ball skills and feel he gained as a small guard. Barely making state teams before his growth spurt, Furphy got his chance to develop his game and body in his senior year with Australia’s Centre of Excellence, a training program for future national Australian basketball players where we’ve seen recent top-ten picks like Dyson Daniels and Josh Giddey come through.

Furphy was a relative unknown in basketball circles due to this development curve he’s been on, but he truly made his name in the summer of 2023 at the NBA Academy Games where he broke out in front of multiple pro scouts and college coaches. The college offers started pouring in, fast forward a couple of months and Furphy is a high-level contributor to a 21-8 Kansas team.

He may only be 19 today, but Furphy’s roller coaster ride of a start to hoops makes him pretty young in terms of high-level basketball experience. His ‘basketball age,’ is far lower when you compare him to the average 19-year-old. The growth spurt made his development curve steeper, and even with the lack of experience and time to grow into his body, he’s been extremely productive in a scaled role as a freshman. Similar to Jalen William’s late growth spurt, Furphy’s newfound size opened up far more pathways as a basketball player. This is one of the reasons why I believe Furphy is a false-ceiling prospect.

Furphy’s Chain of Skills

Before getting into Furphy’s production, let’s take a look at his skills, attributes, and how they intersect on the court.

Standing at 6’8”, potentially reaching 6’9” in shoes, Johnny Furphy possesses prototypical NBA size and length for the forward-wing position, complemented by a long wingspan spanning between 6’11” and 7’0”. Still gaining strength and weight, Furphy weighs a reported 202 pounds. At 19, he has a skinny frame, but this has not deterred him from being aggressive and physical on the court.

Watching him play over the past couple of years, you can see Furphy has high levels of touch and that translates to his most bankable NBA skill: shooting. Furphy is a pretty advanced shooter considering his experience, shooting with high volume and versatility that includes shots off of movement, off the dribble, above the break in transition, and catch-and-shoot. His mechanics have developed over the years, oftentimes having to accommodate for his lack of lower-body strength with a wider base. Today, Furphy’s shot is a 1.5-motion jumper with a high point of release, even mixing in no dip threes when extremely hard closeouts come his way.

The strongest facet of his shooting has been catch-and-shoot, but the capability to add different shots to his arsenal in a short period is a massive sign that he could be a high-level shooter.

I’ve compiled his shooting throughout these past couple of years, and you can see Furphy’s mechanics were initially accommodating for upper and lower body strength. A wider base, low release, and his knees protruding forward are different parts of his mechanics accommodating to larger distances. Even off movement, his stability was not great and self-organization was extremely slow, often needing a rhythm dribble to get into his shot. In just a year, Furphy has gained core strength and improved stability throughout his body, leading to better energy transfer throughout his kinetic chain and that is shining through in his efficiency.

Furphy adding this versatility while shooting with high volume is a proxy for the growing shooting confidence that he and his coaches have in him. What makes this truly impressive is that Furphy has dealt with a weaker lower half since he had his growth spurt, and has not been able to make massive strength gains here due to dealing with minor shin injuries before being recruited to the Centre of Excellence and a severe case of shin splints before his season started at Kansas. The injuries added an extra obstacle to developing his lower half strength due to being in the rehab process.

Even with his weaker lower half, Furphy has explosion and a quick load time off of two feet. He doesn’t cover a lot of distance vertically but this is where his length helps him extend into finishes, which is further strengthened by his ability to explode over the top of defenses off of his back foot. You can really see this in Furphy’s offensive rebounding, drives/cuts to the rim in the halfcourt, and when he attacks the rim in transition.

Give Furphy an open lane to build up momentum and it becomes really difficult to stop him at the rim due to his physicality, functional strength, and leaping mechanics. This intersection of athletic traits and shooting touch gives Furphy a baseline as a high-level play finisher in the NBA, weaponizing it when given space and attacking defenses that are in scramble mode.

But what about his ability to create at a higher degree? This is where his feel kicks in. Furphy already has an advanced understanding of spacing, constantly relocating off the ball and cutting into space for finishes and offensive rebounds. When he does have the ball in his hands, he’s shown to make one-level reads with relatively quick processing.

A 6’ 9” shooter with bounce and connective passing at 19 is a great baseline but to project even higher forms of creation, it requires an NBA player to be able to self-create half-court drives on volume. This is the weakest part of Furphy’s chain of skills on the offensive end, where a weak handle hampers his creation reps.

As a driver, Furphy does have one unique aspect: lower body flexibility. Although he’s a large player, Furphy is consistently able to get lower than players on drives and leverage his physicality. This is in part due to his shin angles, allowing him to get lower and use his shoulder as a lever to manufacture space.

Furphy doesn’t create his advantages on drives in orthodox ways using burst, it’s a pure combination of lower-half flexibility and strength. When he can get deep in the paint, his explosive last stride, touch off the glass, and length help him finish these drives. The problem is what happens in between those two events.

His handle limits so much of his drives, unable to react effectively to stunts and digs, causing him to gather extremely early on drives and rely on his last stride and touch. Furphy has to look at his handle consistently on drives too, which is another reason why he’s slow to react to help with his handle.

Similar to freshmen Bane in that way, it isn’t a death sentence to Furphy’s upside as a creator. Like Bane, he has tools that will help him work the handle issues in NBA margins. Furphy has already added handle counters like deceleration, behind-the-back crossovers, and jabs out of triple-threat situations in the past year. What he needs to work on is his ball control, introducing more changes of direction and different stride lengths to freeze defenders, all things he’s capable of athletically with improved lower body strength.

When lack of space is the constraint given to Furphy’s handle, his issues there become far more emphatic but in transition, he’s able to problem-solve with his handle in space and bring the ball up the floor functionally.

As someone who can grab an offensive rebound or create a steal by getting into passing lanes, Furphy’s aggression in transition offense while being able to weaponize his feel and touch from the three levels of the court gives Furphy a unique intersection of skills on the court. Skills that thrive off of each other, enabling him to carve a role early regardless of competition.

Furphy’s Role Malleability

A lack of experience would have faltered most young players when it comes to adapting to different roles, Furphy on the other hand has shown he can be productive in a wide range of roles. Even before he truly started playing high levels of competition, Furphy was able to relatively master transition offense due to his background in another invasion sport, Australian rules football. Gaining reps where you have to cover massive amounts of ground over a gigantic field gave Furphy the offensive skills to be aggressive in space. As a contact-heavy sport, this is where Furphy’s functional strength comes from as well because he would have to consistently absorb contact and finish plays in football.

As he gained more opportunities to play basketball after his growth spurt, Furphy was put in a number of offensive roles throughout various levels of competition. Playing mostly off-the-ball early on, he honed his off-ball feel and scoring in those roles which eventually allowed him to start running second-side pick-and-rolls when the primary action failed. Experience polished his skills, allowing him to eventually run pick-and-rolls as the primary ball-handler in limited reps. This forms a parallel with how Franz Wagner would often adapt effectively to various off-ball roles at the same age, but when he was used as the primary pick-and-roll handler he was still productive in those limited reps (fifteen possessions) in his final year with ALBA Berlin. Similarly, whether it was game to game or possession to possession, Furphy’s productivity in multiple roles was apparent.

Are there any areas where he has not been productive? I haven’t spoken about Furphy’s defense yet but there is a reason for that. College teams have consistently attacked Furphy in space since he’s been hit-or-miss when it comes to containing drives. Furphy also has issues navigating screens as a bigger player but I believe there is a common reason for both.

You guessed it, it’s lower body strength. Due to his lack of strength, he’s unable to get low enough in defensive positioning and stay with players laterally. This also limits him in screen navigation as he’s unable to get low enough, turn the corner, and explode back into the play. Furphy is role-versatile when it comes to defense but I would not say he is malleable enough in this area. He can play a multitude of roles on this end, whether it’s at the point of attack, in gaps, or even some deterrence at the rim but he does not truly thrive in any of these roles outside of being a nail defender. There is some low-hanging fruit with the lower half development, allowing him to become more stable on closeouts and stay laterally with offensive players, but his ceiling on the defensive end is dependent on the degree of strength he’s able to add.

Regardless of the defense, Furphy has been extremely productive in a scaled off-ball role at Kansas. Playing in a high-major system like Kansas, there are far fewer on-ball flashes for Furphy in this role. Due to how their system operates, I believe Kansas would rather Furphy use his gravity on the perimeter to space the floor and do not want him to drive more in their half-court offense with creators like Kevin Mccullar able to take on that offensive load.

The important part here, in the context of Furphy’s projection, is that he has been productive in the role that he’s been given.

This did not mean the development process ended, in fact with more complex problems to solve in a comfortable role, Furphy has been able to add micro-skills to meet his new constraints. One of these micro-skills is baiting fouls when he’s finishing a play. He’s been far more effective at selling contact in these possessions and that is apparent from his 42.9 free-throw-rate. In pre-college samples that same free throw rate was consistently in the sub-thirty range.

Conclusion

While I believe Furphy will be a good NBA player in most contexts, like most prospects, reaching his upper-end outcomes as a creator will need an optimal development environment. An NBA team with cemented creators and a DHO big will enable that team to leverage Furphy’s off-ball value early on. The creators can help his handle limitations stand out less, while a DHO big will find him on cuts and in handoffs as a shooter. Letting Furphy become comfortable at the NBA level will then open up his creation pathways. There is a case that Furphy’s intersection of skills will allow him to develop his handle as an off-the-catch scorer, attacking tilted defenses like Desmond Bane did with the Grizzlies early on. This should give him the time off the court and the space on the court to fix the weaker links in his chain of skills.

The skill intersection, the ability to play on and off the ball, and his current development curve give Furphy the ability to scale to most basketball contexts with the ability to take on more of a workload as a creator when experience builds up.

He’s a false ceiling prospect for these very reasons. In most draft classes, a young dribble-pass-shoot wing with the potential for above-average defense would justifiably be a top-10 pick. In a class, where that archetype is not only rare but the top of the draft is wide open, I believe it is justified to take Johnny Furphy with a top-5 pick in the 2024 NBA Draft.

The post Johnny Furphy and the Paradigms of Role Malleability appeared first on Swish Theory.

Ahmed: Isaiah Crawford

Perhaps no draft class of the past decade has taken shape later in its cycle than 2024, and in a class defined by uncertainty it only makes sense for some of its prospects to take circuitous routes to the NBA. There may not be a player in the class who has taken a more winding road into the league than 6’6” fifth-year senior wing Isaiah Crawford. Typically there is some combination of three factors which result in a prospect exhausting their collegiate eligibility prior to joining the professional ranks. Maybe the player joined a veteran laden, high achieving team, where minutes crucial to their development are difficult to come by. The prospect in question may have been from a less heralded school where playing lower competition required a lengthier resume of production to be seriously considered a NBA caliber player. Or lastly, injuries prevent them from playing to the point where development is disrupted and they are forced to return to school.

In Crawford’s case the latter two factors are primarily responsible for his protracted NCAA career. Having suffered devastating ACL injuries in two consecutive seasons (his true sophomore and junior years), and playing the entirety of his career in Conference USA, which only recently gained a modicum of respect from FAU’s Final Four appearance this past season. While Crawford’s injury history may have him omitted from a few teams’ draft boards, the consistent production in spite of both practice and game time lost to recovery is eye-catching.

Crawford’s appeal is his protean skillset on both ends of the floor. Offensively, Crawford has spent most of the season as the primary creator in the half-court, ranking 11th in the country in isolations as a percentage of his teams possessions. However, in past years Crawford has been cast in a more of a complementary role, where he spaced the floor and gained comfort attacking closeouts as his long-range shooting became a more consistent threat (Crawford is currently 40% from 3 on 275 attempts in his career). Crawford was even deployed as a small-ball center this past year when his mobility was compromised by the recency of his knee injury.

In all these roles Crawford has not only produced, but thrived, when forced to adapt. This display of role flexibility bodes well for Crawford’s value in the league, where non-star wings are increasingly defined by their ability to meld around whatever star talent resides on their roster. Crawford will most likely not be asked to shoulder a large creation burden, but his ability to capitalize on mismatches created and attack tilted defenses, in tandem with the stellar shooting indicators (44% on 70 off-the-dribble midrange jumpers, 39.7% on catch-and-shoot 3s in 2024), has been the recipe for numerous wings who arrived with little fanfare to carve out meaningful roles.

For as enticing as Crawford’s offense is, defense could very well be his ticket to making a NBA roster. Similar to the offense, Crawford has played a variety of roles defensively and consistently produced wherever he has been deployed, Crawford has posted stellar steal and block rates over his career (3.1% and 3.6% respectively) while simultaneously limiting fouling (only 3.3 fouls/40). The paltry foul rate to Crawford’s defensive impact numbers underscore his quick processing ability on this end of the floor. Crawford isn’t one to blindly gamble on the defensive end, instead opting for calculated risks where he utilizes the entirety of his massive wingspan to alter shots at the rim and encroach on ballhandler’s live dribbles as they attempt to create space. Despite being 6’6” I fully believe Crawford can function as a weak-side rim protector, aided by a 7’0” wingspan, and has the range necessary to complement a deep-drop big. 

All in all it is rare to find wings with as well-rounded a skillset as Crawford, and with the premium placed on the position around the league, it is my belief Crawford’s skillset warrants first round draft consideration despite the risk which comes with such a disconcerting injury history.

Avinash: DaRon Holmes II

DaRon Holmes is putting up one of the most well-rounded, dominant seasons in recent memory, and he’s getting late second round buzz. Here’s why I find that baffling.

Let’s get some things out of the way: DaRon Holmes is somewhat undersized for his position (6’10 in shoes), has middling length (7’0 WS), he is a bit old (August 2002 bday makes him ~senior aged), and he plays in a mid-major conference (although the A10 is arguably just as good as some P5 conferences). These are all valid criticisms, and should certainly be considered in ascertaining his upside. And yet, after watching DaRon for three years, I have two contentions that I will qualify below: 1) DaRon Holmes is putting up one of the greatest rim scoring seasons ever. 2) DaRon Holmes might be the most well rounded big man ever.

Starting with the first contention: from 2008 to 2023, there have been 37 instances where a player dunked 75 dunks or more. Five players have managed to do this twice: Udoka Azubuike, Tacko Fall, Obi Toppin, Chimezie Metu, and of course DaRon Holmes. Currently, DaRon is on pace to be the first player to do this 3 times! This baseline of interior dominance is important, but so is the span of his dominance. Upperclassmen are often maligned for only dominating once they reach a certain age threshold, thereby making their dominance seemingly untranslatable. Well, DaRon has been dunking to oblivion since his freshman season. His freshman season was actually a quasi-statistical doppelganger to Jalen Duren, and he was one of 7 players to dunk 80 times as a freshman (the other 6 were all lottery picks: AD, Ayton, Bagley, Obi, Drummond, and Bam. Dunks are my favorite way of ascertaining functional interior dominance: it’s the play type with the highest conversion percentage, yet it also has the highest barrier to consistent entry.

There’s so many more ways I could reiterate Holmes’ interior goodness. He’s scoring a whooping 80% at the rim on very high volume (will likely hit 200 rim attempts) and he’s getting to the line at an extremely high rate (70 FTR on the season). This combination of dunks/rim %/ FTR is virtually unmatched. For context, there have only been 3 seasons where a player has even reached 65 FTR and 80 dunks: Bam, Mason Plumlee, and Tacko Fall, with DaRon and Edey on pace to crush these numbers this year.

I’ve just spit out a cacophony of numbers to demonstrate DaRon’s interior dominance, some of which may admittedly be redundant. He also happens to be the rare disciplined rim protector, with both a strong rim protection record and foul rate reminiscent of a guard (career 7.6% block and 2.3 fouls per 50). But the main point is that DaRon doesn’t just exhibit above average interior dominance: by all accounts, he is one of the most dominant rim forces we have ever seen. There are some concerns about translatability, sure, but these are all relative. Even adjusting for length, means of winning, and conference strength, DaRon should at least be a solid bet to be a well-above-average rim force in the league.

However, it would be incredibly reductive to call DaRon an interior scoring merchant. He is also one of the best big man passers I have ever seen. He can catch the ball on the perimeter, force his way to the rim off a dribble drive and sling a one handed pass to the weak side for an open 3. He can get to a post-up and time pocket passes on the inside to cutters. He can bring the ball up the court and hit a tween as he scans the floor, and consistently leverages his rim gravity to make connective reads out of the post. This type of ball handling skill and passing acumen is quite rare for a 6’10 big, and it manifests in his 19% assist rate. Defenders truly have to pick their poison with DaRon – sit back and watch your center get absolutely cooked by DaRon inside the post en route to another dunk, or help off your man too hard and watch as DaRon wastes no time finding the open man.

I don’t really care too much about perimeter shooting numbers for prospects, but DaRon is putting up 5 3PA/100 and 37% 3P, while shooting 69% on FTs. Even if I’m not totally sold that he’s going to be a pick and pop force in his prime a la Kevin Love, this is a pretty significant data point. This year, there’s only 18 players 6’10 or taller who even meet 3 3PA/100, 35% 3P, and 65% FT. To me, this is just a testament to DaRon’s perimeter skill and fluidity, and this perimeter volume is already operating as a functional outlet for him to create advantages off closeouts.

It’s pretty clear that DaRon is an impressive passer and shooter – how many big men are able to put up 19% assist and 5 3PA/100 simultaneously? It’s a rare skill set with intuitive translatability, as it’s easy to imagine the utility of a post hub who can pick and pop or even run some delay actions from the jump. At the same time, there’s only been a couple players who have even approached DaRon’s statistical rate of interior dominance, and even fewer who can dominate the rim at both ends. 

Here’s the bottom line: there has NEVER been a prospect who approaches DaRon’s goodness at the intersection of feel, shooting, and interior scoring. One of the best statistical rim scorers also happens to be an awesome passer and bonafide shooter, all while protecting the rim at a high level? This is absolutely insane territory, and I’m running out of ways to emphasize this. Since 2008, there have only been 3 players with 50 dunks, 15% assist, and literally just 1 3PA/100: Zion, Obi, and Josh Jackson. None of them were even close to DaRon’s block rate or even 3PA/100 (Zion was the closest at 3.9 3PA/100). For reference, DaRon is on pace to pulverize these thresholds; he’s on pace for 80 dunks, 19% assist, and 5 3PA/100.

I don’t need to cook up another bart query to exemplify the extraordinary nature of this skillset. DaRon Holmes has the most fascinating skill integration for a big that I’ve ever seen, and he does it while being elite to generational in all the facets you want to see for a traditional big man. Oftentimes, when we look for unicorns among bigs, we fail to account for whether or not they are good at traditional big man things. So many scrawny bigs have failed because their movement aesthetics weren’t adequately functional to overcome their physical deficiencies. And now, we have one of the most physically dominant big men in the barttorvik.com era entering the draft, and this player also happens to be able to dribble, shoot and pass at a high level relative to position? And he’s projected to go undrafted by several outlets? By all accounts, his integration of skills in conjunction with his baseline of sheer dominance is incredibly rare and offers a tantalizing combination of high floor and untapped ceiling. This is the type of bet I want my front office making.

Roshan: Jaylon Tyson

The NBA has had a massive talent explosion in the last couple of years, where players with size are coming in more skilled than ever. One of the reasons is the proliferation of wings or bigs that can dribble, pass and shoot. In a class where this player is more of a rarity, Jaylon Tyson has a case for being underrated.

Jaylon Tyson is a 6’7” junior tasked with running the primary ballhandling duties for the California Golden Bears, lighting the Pac-12 up with impressive shotmaking, crafty ball-handling, and reactive passing. In 27 games, 35% of his offensive possessions come from being the pick-and-roll ballhandler where he’s been slicing up defenses with his good first step and leveraging his touch from all three levels of the floor. 

He’s been shooting 59% at the rim on 188 attempts (70% unassisted), 42% on 108 midrange attempts (93% unassisted), and 36% on three-point attempts (48% unassisted). If you still don’t believe he has touch, he’s also shooting 77% from the charity stripe for his career (177 attempts), 43% on floaters and hooks this year, and 45% on off-the-dribble jumpers inside the arc this year. Tyson can get to these shots in a lot of creative ways where he’s able to use change of direction, deceleration, and different stride lengths to freeze defenders or cause them to flip their hips. He’s then able to use quickness in short spaces to create space and hunt a shot.

Tyson’s handle is the vehicle for all of his crucial skills on the offensive end, as he has excellent ball control. This enables him to pick the ball up at gather points where primary and help defenders can not dig at it effectively, further lending itself to live dribble passes. 

His passing volume mostly contains single-level reads like finding the roller out of pick-and-roll or making connective passes to the next rotational player, but where he shines is how quickly he’s processing these decisions, often locating the help defense. Sometimes the speed of his deliveries can be improved but I can see a pathway to growth in this area because he has manipulated defenses at times with no-look passes. With improved hand strength, he could potentially do this with more volume off of a live dribble.

Tyson is definitely an NBA athlete, dunking 15 times in the halfcourt (3 of which came off of his drives to the rim) with good load time off of two feet. There isn’t a wingspan that I could find but I would say it ranges somewhere between +3 and +5 inches compared to his height. On the defensive end, this length and explosion allow him to stifle smaller ball-handlers. His lateral movement allows him to stay with ball handlers and then hound them with his reach, empowering his ability to create events which can be seen in his 1.7 block percentage and 2.0 steal percentage. 

His problem on the defensive end is screen navigation, where he can get caught across screens and has to recover back into the play. Most of this is him not doing his work early with technique and getting skinny, specifically taking larger lateral strides before the opposing big can get positioned with his screen. Currently, he can recover into plays using his burst and length but this will be tougher to do in the NBA with the amount of ground that has to be covered. 

I believe this issue is further amplified due to his usage on the offensive end (30% usage) which will persist less in the NBA in a scaled-down role. In the NBA, Tyson will have the chance to play off of better advantage creators, where he can capitalize on tilted defenses off-the-catch. Having to create fewer possessions at the next level, there should be an uptick in three-point efficiency, similar to his sophomore season at Texas Tech where more of his threes were assisted as he shot 40% on 107 attempts. To get even more granular, he shot 43% on catch-and-shoot shots his sophomore year. With a reduced offensive load, it will let him expend more on the defensive end and do his work early with technique.

The skills and athletic traits he has as a primary should translate well to an off-ball role in increased NBA spacing, using burst and explosion to capitalize on advantages, and incorporating his touch and creative handle to create counters when the defense recovers. 

These tantalizing skills at prototypical wing size should give the team that drafts Tyson a dynamic scoring wing with the potential to funnel ballhandlers as a defender in the NBA. That sounds like the description of a player who could end up being a starting-caliber player and will be 21.5 years old on draft night; yet, he remains outside of the top 20 on most boards and mocks throughout mainstream media. In my opinion, investing heavily in a player of that caliber is usually justified, particularly in a draft class where there’s a significant shortage of this player type.

Matt: Jonathan Mogbo

Jonathan Mogbo is one of the more unique development cases of the 21st century. Not recruited out of high school as a 6’4’’ guard, he is now 6’9’’ and a big/forward. He started at Independence Community College, transferred to junior college Northeastern Oklahoma A&M, transferred again to low-major Missouri State, and then a third time to the mid-major San Francisco. He has guided himself up the development curve, step-by-step.

And it seems to have worked. Jonathan Mogbo is not just playing well at this higher competition level, but dominating. His 10.5 Box Plus-Minus is #13 in the country. As you might guess from the growth spurt, Mogbo mixes in guard skills with that of a big. That has provided flexibility of value to San Francisco’s roster (+20 net rating when on compared to +2 when off) that would continue with another leap in competition.

Jonathan Mogbo can pass – really pass – the fulcrum of the Dons’ offense. They often run Delay with Mogbo the trigger point, providing endless handoffs and hitting cutters or shooters in stride. He assists on one of every four made buckets by his teammates, in the top 10 for assist rate among NCAA bigs.

But what really makes Mogbo stand out is his ability as a roller or cutter. Mogbo is a fantastic leaper, quick off the ground and with ridiculous hang time, coupled with an above 7-foot wingspan and large hands. His catch radius is phenomenal, but as much as that, his footwork stands out. Mogbo is capable of dropping into a roll or starting his cut from an oblique angle while simultaneously chopping his feet, preparing for any pass regardless of its accuracy. It’s through this talent that he is barely second to Zach Edey in number of dunks this season, with a shocking three per game. Not bad for a former point guard.

The limitation is the outside shooting, as Mogbo has only attempted 38 threes over his four college seasons and at a 31% make rate, but is still shooting a solid 69% from the line and 32% in midrange. That’s enough to convince me there’s some chance of Mogbo succeeding as a low-end catch and shoot three point threat. But even if not, his handle stands out as strong for a big, capable of making moves off the dribble (but not too many) to then leverage his strength to make a path to the rim where he shoots 75% (and nearly half of his rim makes self-created). He is mostly dominant inside, but there are sparks of upside outside of the restricted area. The feel of a guard is there.

Mogbo is excellent on defense, too, and also due to his guard-like agility and opportunism. He gets a steal on 3.3% of opponent possession and a block just as often, only one of nine starters in the NCAA to do so (see: Isaiah Crawford later on). His long wingspan is weaponized by lightning fast reaction time, closing off passing lanes when least expected. His mobility combined with strength allows him to defend on the perimeter and inside alike. One small slight is he can take a beat to find his positioning on the court, a significant concern for picking up NBA schemes (especially ability to play drop as sole big). This, however, is heavily mediated by his quick recovery time and aforementioned physical tools to keep him in a play. When he’s near, he’s a threat. 

Jonathan Mogbo provides a bevy of skills no one else in the 2024 draft class has in this combination. Despite being a senior, Mogbo’s adaptability to increasing competition in the middle of a growth spurt suggests continued room for improvement. With deadly weapons in the form of interior athleticism and big-man ball skills, Mogbo is a tough matchup regardless of competition. That’s why I believe he deserves to go in the top 20 of the 2024 NBA draft. Instead, he is absent from all major media mocks/boards entirely.

Josh: David Jones

Through his four seasons in college basketball, David Jones has progressively developed into one of the best wings in the country. There were flashes of future stardom in his first two years at DePaul, with him averaging 14.5 points per game as a sophomore for the Blue Demons. Jones then transferred up to St. Johns, where his numbers remained very similar to his sophomore year at DePaul. After coach Rick Pitino accepted the head coaching position at St. John’s, Jones decided to transfer up again to Memphis, where he is now on All-American watchlists while averaging a career high 21.7 points per game on 60.7% true shooting percentage.

With the Tigers, David Jones’ rate of spot-up possessions has risen substantially, and so has his efficiency in this area. Jones is currently averaging a whopping 1.24 points per possession on spot-up looks, and he is at 1.21 points per possession on spot-up drives. He is currently at 1.35 points per possession on 40 right drives and 1.06 points per possession on 35 left drives. Jones’ burst from a standstill is quite impressive, as he is able to beat closeout defenders with ease. His jab and go often leaves defenders in the dust, as the threat of his downhill speed leads to defenders often biting on his initial move. When he jabs left and goes right, he is often able to get to his pull-up, where he is able to align his shoulder with the rim to knock down the shot. He also has an incredibly pronounced pump fake, leading to many fly-bys from unsuspecting defenders. 

When Jones beats his initial defender, he is adept at weaving his way through help using a variety of different stride types. There are many possessions where he takes an elongated last step towards the rim to either get by one help defender or to split two, and these steps often open up easy finishes at the basket. While he is at the basket, Jones flashes exceptional body control, as he is able to consistently absorb contact and finish through it despite the frequent difficulty of these attempts. He pairs this body control with his explosive one foot leaping, as he is able to generate tons of vertical pop and hangtime to throw down highlight dunks if given a runway. Half court finishing will be a potential swing skill for Jones, as he is currently hovering at 51% at the rim in the halfcourt. I am a firm believer in this mark improving over time, as he consistently showcases great touch around the rim and always displays the aforementioned elite body control. 

Stepping back to his spot-up proficiency, Jones is currently shooting a blistering 47% on 79 total spot-up 3s putting him at 1.41 points per possession on these shots. Among every single player in D1 basketball, David Jones is currently scoring the fifth most points per game on spot-up possessions in the entire country despite only being 46th in total spot-up possessions. Jones has shown the ability to hit shots off of a variety of footwork patterns, movements, and is just as accurate on off-dribble jumpers. Shooting progression is almost never linear, and Jones’ development over the last couple years has been magnificent. Between his sophomore and junior seasons, Jones jumped from 69% on free throws to a strong 79%, and he currently hovers at 80% this year on nearly three times the volume. His jump as a three point shooter really kicked in this year, as he has gone from 29% as a junior to 39% as a senior. Jones has pristine mechanics on his jumper, and he is excellent at rotating his body in air to align his shot with the rim. This is part of what makes him so deadly as a pull-up shooter, as he is comfortable shooting off of a variety of dribble patterns. Jones has also showcased comfort in shooting from NBA range and even beyond, and he can convert on these deep looks both off the catch and off the dribble. Defenders have to stay honest on his drive, so any type of walk down will typically give Jones either a driving lane or enough daylight to pull-up from 3.

Another potential swing skill for Jones will be his playmaking, more specifically limiting turnovers. I personally believe that Jones is a significantly better playmaker than his current numbers would indicate, as he has shown the ability to make high level reads off of drives. Jones typically avoids telegraphing his passes, as his eye fakes and general passing deception periodically appear on tape. These positive playmaking indicators along with his processing of help defenders on drives leads me to believe in his feel for the game and processing speed, which bodes very well for his playmaking progression in the future. The main inconsistency in his playmaking has been his passing accuracy, however I think most of this is due to the difficulty of some of the reads he makes. In a scaled down role in the NBA, Jones will have the opportunity to make first and second layer reads off of drives, and I believe that he is more than capable of making nearly every pass he would be tasked with executing at this level. 

Defensively, Jones uses his elite quickness and strong instincts to jump passing lanes very frequently. His steal rate of 3.7 ranks 30th in the country among players playing at least 70% of their team’s minutes, and his ability to create deflections and transition offense opportunities absolutely pops on tape. Jones is a bit of a gambler on defense, as he looks to jump these passes very frequently. However, when Jones is out of position due to a missed jump, he is still able to swiftly get back into the play due to his change of direction capabilities. When Jones focuses on sitting down and walling off drives, he is excellent at mirroring opponents’ movements and cutting off any lanes to the basket. Jones’ body control once again shows up when he is forced to navigate screens, as he is able to absorb the contact of the screen and quickly get over them to get back into the play. Jones’ short area quickness makes him an excellent closeout defender, as he is able to execute x-outs and recover out to perimeter players much quicker than the average wing player. Finally, Jones is an excellent rebounder for a wing, as he crashes the glass to grab 2.4 offensive rebounds and 5.2 defensive rebounds per game.

Oftentimes wings with similar skill sets to Jones come in as below average defenders and in turn struggle to stick in the league despite their offensive tools. However, Jones combines his strong offensive tools with great defensive instincts and a solid feel for the game. The foundation that Jones has cannot be overlooked, and the sheer amount of translatable traits that he provides has led to me believing that he deserves to be in first round talks.  

AJ – Riley Minix

A 5th-year transfer from NAIA school Southeastern, Riley Minix has continued his dominance in his first season at the D1 level. He leads Morehead State comfortably in points, rebounds, true shooting percentage, and combined steals + blocks a game. It’s worth noting that while he’s playing at a mid-major school he’s not just padding stats on a bad team – Morehead State is currently in the 1st place in the OVC and ranks top 40 nationally (out of 362 schools) in both offensive and defensive rating with Minix leading the way on both ends. 

While Minix’s game is built around overall versatility, his primary standout skill right now is inside the arc scoring. At 6’7” with an extremely strong frame he’s one of the most dominant 2pt scorers in college basketball this season, shooting 64.8% on all twos thanks to a staggering combination of efficiency at the rim (77%, 19 dunks in 27 games) and from mid-range (50%). His ability to shoot it from three is a little more of a question as he’s shooting a fairly mediocre 33% from beyond the arc this year, but there’s other indicators that point to him being a better shooter than that. He’s shooting nearly 85% from the FT line this year, takes a solid volume of 3’s at 8.1 3PA/100 possessions, and shot 40.8% from 3pt at the NAIA level on over 550+ attempts. When you factor in this additional context, he definitely has a stronger shooting projection than this year’s raw 3pt% suggests. 

Minix is also capable of affecting a game in several different ways. His strength and size make him a high level rebounder for a forward, and he’s currently in the midst of a 9-game streak with double digits rebounds. He’s also the leader of one of the better defenses in college basketball, with Morehead State’s defense improving 8.6 points per 100 possessions when Minix is on the floor compared to off. He’s not the quickest or fastest player, but knows where to be and his combination of strength and good hands let him be effective when he is in the right position. He’s also capable as a passer, not a high level facilitator by any means but knows how to keep the ball moving and capitalize on the extra attention he gets from defenses. 

While he’s done just about everything at a high level for Morehead State, Minix still has some question marks on both ends. For as good of a scorer around the rim as he’s been this year, a lot of that production comes in ways (rim rolls, post seals, putbacks, etc.) that will be a lot harder to replicate consistently at the next level when you’re 6’7” with solid-not-great athletic tools for NBA standards. Minix will also have to deal with role translation on the defensive end as well, as playing the forward position defensively in the NBA requires a completely different skillset than playing it at the mid-major level. With his burly frame being much more equipped to defend from a set position using strength than to try to stick with guys through screens/traffic on the move, this could be a challenge for him. 

Overall, even with questions around competition level, agility, and role/skillset translation, it’s hard not to see the intrigue with Riley Minix. He checks multiple boxes we look for in NBA role players, possessing good positional size and the ability to score effectively from multiple spots on the floor while still being able to impact the game in non-scoring areas. It will no doubt be a tough jump for Minix to go from NAIA to Mid-Major CBB to NBA in a short span, but his track record of producing at a high level everywhere he goes will give him a chance to stick at any level.

The post Roundtable: 2024 NBA Draft Sleepers appeared first on Swish Theory.

Because the magic is elusive, difficult to explain, let’s break it down clip by clip. Featuring the highest feel players in the 2024 NBA draft class:

Nikola Topic

Moniker: Mass manipulator

Nikola Topic comes out as the top feel prospect in the 2024 draft class for one major reason: he is the only one capable of freezing an entire defense at once. Topic does this in a couple of ways, but mostly built off of his drive threat (he takes 7 rim attempts per game, and finishes at a 68% clip). No one is better at knowing when to attack a gap than Nikola, monitoring multiple opponents at once.

Here he attacks right as the opponent is switching onto him, but also right at the moment his big is clearing out the opposing rim protector under the basket. His execution is flawless: instead of attacking immediately he eats up space waiting for the confusion of the switch. He then sells his left hard before crossing and accelerating with his right. Then a hallmark of Topic’s drives: he can pick the ball up early and still confuse a rim protector with his stride lengths and deception. This time cradling with his right to protect from the defender on that side, slowing his gather to leap just past the lone big but not drifting too far left.

Balance, speed and coordination are all needed to pull off moves like this, but more than that it requires a feel of the defense. Topic not just knows how to get past one defender, but how to run defenders into each other.

Topic’s drive threat enhances his passing and vice-versa, and how he maintains a stellar 2.2 assist to turnover ratio. He is adamant in pushing the ball ahead, with a keen understanding of where the soft spots of the defense are. Above, bursting into transition and hitting Nikola Djurisic filling the lane. Then, immediately after, hunting a rebound, kicking out to a shooter while in mid-air. In both instances Topic is ahead of the game, getting an edge on his opponents with his awareness in spite of lagging them by multiple years in age.

This pass might not catch your eye at first, but exhibits Topic’s flexibility of mind. Realizing he has committed to passing to a blocked path, Topic recovers mid-pass, twisting his hand to instead dump the ball off to the big waiting nearby for the assist. That instantaneous adaptability is rare, even if making up for his own mistake.

Here, Topic reads a backdoor flawlessly, executing an off-hand scoop laser. While seemingly designed, it still requires patience and timing. Topic is a true court general for a professional team, and a big part of that is teammates trusting you to make a hairline pass.

Topic knows how to run pick and rolls, but a lot of people know how to do that. What makes him unique is his ability to layer in multiple responsibilities at once, aware of his teammates, while also slicing apart a defense with his drives. To stagger footwork and dribble moves when an opponent is most off-balance is an ultra-valuable trait not maintained by many teenagers. To do that while also hitting whichever of your four teammates is most open is genius.

Reed Sheppard

Moniker: Muck in the gears

Sheppard was featured among our most productive prospects, but shines even more with his feel for the game. Reed is more subtle with his swindling of unsuspecting opponents. At 6’2”, Sheppard has good not great athletic tools, but he weaponizes them to maximum effect.

A major way Sheppard makes life difficult for his opponents is his spatial awareness.

A hallmark of Sheppard’s playmaking is he often looks out of place. This may be the reality here and there – Reed is aggressive in seeking out plays – but The Reed Method generally works. In the above clip, he tags the roller hard given the hard hedge, making sure to cut off the big’s roll. He leaves his man longer than advisable, but, in true Sheppard way, gets the steal anyways. He knows exactly where his man will be cutting and rotates to the exact point he needs.

Reed’s spatial awareness mixes excellently with his hand-eye coordination and timing. Sheppard blocks shots by swiping in the single foot of space that will allow a non-fouling contest. This happens often – he is first in steal rate and sixth in block rate (yes, despite being only 6’2”) among high major freshmen in rotations.

On offense, Reed’s feel shines in three areas: his ability to seek out soft pockets, his ability to get shots off in small spaces, and his creative passing deliveries. In the above clip Reed weaponizes his hesitation dribble in a unique way. He first hesitates off of the ball screen to give his roller more time. Realizing the roll man isn’t on time (and, in fact, two defenders are on his tail), he takes a second hesi, this time faking a layup with the move, an inventive solution. Hesitations work for fake shooting, not just feigning a pass, and allow Sheppard to keep his dribble alive long enough to find the corner shooter.

Reed has to get creative due to his stature, which we’ve seen him accomplish in his defensive coverages and now also his passing. Add in his ability to get shots off in tiny spaces with heightened awareness and you see the outlines of a savant.

Reed Sheppard has best in class spatial awareness and hand-eye coordination, two traits that combine to make a stocks machine. Adding in his small space craftiness mean his feel is truly elite. Sheppard covers large territories by moving with intention and knowing how to beat people to their spots. He covers small spaces with near perfect hand placements. While not always perfect, he has the tools to make as advanced feel plays as anyone this class.

Devin Carter

Moniker: Now you see me

Devin Carter has been a feel god for his three college seasons, and especially on the defensive end where he has accumulated 182 stocks to only 153 fouls. But Carter’s feel extends beyond simply knowing how to swipe the ball on defense, especially as he has expanded his offensive game significantly in the 2023-24 season.

Here we see one kind of Carter’s magic. In the middle of the paint with three defenders swarming, Devin somehow manages to find the space to finish and adjusts to use the backboard despite the awkward angle. Carter has a knack for finding angles like this, and all over the court. This is the kind of innate talent that allows him to finish at a 67% clip with three of every four makes self-created.

Carter is capable of thinking ahead to bend the defense, too. In the above clip he pushes into the gap to his right knowing how that would collapse help. The second the rim protector (#23) commits, Carter is ready to dump it off to his man. While Carter mostly engages in connective passing – moving the ball along the perimeter to play finishers – his development as a play finisher has meant more opportunities to pass out of scoring gravity like this. While he may force looks here and there (his 1.3 ATO ratio leaves something to be desired), the idea is always sound.

Make sure you finish the above clip! Carter, ever one step ahead, jumps in front of the rebounder to bully the ball back in his hands. He misses the trey, but the willingness is encouraging as well – Carter has miraculously raised his three point attempt rate from 6.5 attempts per 100 as a sophomore to 11.0 (!) as a junior. And while raising his 3P% from 30% to 39%

Another example of his passing progression. Carter is not accustomed to being hedged against that high, with newfound three point volume extending his gravity (6.5 3PA/game after 3.5 last season). However, he has immediately figured out how to use this to his passing advantage. Here, Carter makes a push dribble to split the hedge, then engaging with his two shooting targets. While nothing special for traditional point guards, this development is key to Carter’s upside. Not just for the skill itself, but for his ability to problem solve in evolving ways.

Carter appears where you least expect him to succinctly apply his broad skillset. It is tough to count him out of any single play given how he can connect passes, create them, finish off of drives or from deep and create transition opportunities on defense. All of these make him a first round-worthy prospect, with a solid floor and perhaps continually untapped upside, building on some of the best feel in the class.

Reece Beekman

Moniker: Cuts like a knife

The first clip below is quintessential Beekman, as you can already see how he deserves to be on this list.

Reece sets up the offense before receiving an exit screen he hides behind, then gaming the re-screen by rejecting in favor of the baseline. Already he has found a gap, and simply through accuracy of positioning. Next, he gives a slow snake through the paint before whipping a one-handed kick out to the corner. But the sequence is not done. Back on defense, Reece sprints through a double drag quickly enough to swipe around the ballhandler, poke the ball free and dunk.

Everything is on display here, from his care to involve his teammates on offense, his specificity of footwork, his situational awareness to take well-timed risks.

Above another accomplishment of a lot with a little. Recognizing that his teammates’ disorganized screening and cutting was futile, Beekman slashes into the lane with his left (65% of his drives). He waits for both of UVA’s shooters to clear out as he makes his move, help turned away or obstructed. Then, in the middle of the lane, he keeps his defender on his back with a well-timed hesitation sideways into his body. This also freezes the big man help, as his hesi opens up a passing window should he choose to dump it off. Instead, he finishes with a wide open window.

While UVA’s offense might get him easy assists as he is the conductor surrounded by cutters, Beekman has also figured out how to sneak in rim attempts below the radar like this. Beekman’s self created rim attempts per game increased by 40% from last season. He’s getting plenty of opportunities with his 28% usage but figuring out how to expand efficiently – his 52% true shooting is the highest mark of his college career. As a mediocre shooter overall, gaming interior opportunities like this is essential.

Beekman is a surgeon on the defensive end. He weaponizes his knife-like hands with perfect swipe placement, aggressive with both hands. According to the barttorvik.com database, Beekman has two of the seven seasons with a 4% steal rate or higher and fewer than two steals per 40 minutes. He clears both thresholds easily, the highest steal rate of that group with the second fewest fouls. He is the best perimeter defender in the class, through a wide stance capable of choppy feet but also picture-perfect positioning, timing for when to swipe. He will be an elite defender at the next level, too.

Reece Beekman has leveraged the same type of footwork accuracy that has made him a deadly matchup on the defensive end to expand his game on offense. With rim attempts and assists per game increasing ever year, it is unfair to count Beekman out for continuing to make his offense NBA-viable. Simply being where you’re supposed to, then cutting like a knife with decisive action is how Beekman operates. That will be deadly regardless of the competition.

Oso Ighodaro

Moniker: Steady presence

Our only big among the highest feel players (with respect to Clingan, Hall, Holmes, Almansa, Mogbo, Yang, Filipowski, Broome…there are a lot of high feel bigs in this class), Oso Ighodaro is the most mistake-free player on this list. Ighodaro gets stocks without fouling and assists without turning the ball over. He is the fulcrum for Marquette, and they are happy to allow him to make countless important decisions each game.

The first clip is on execution, Oso’s specialty. Just as his man begins to roll, noting the difficult angle the ballhandler would have to make a pass, Oso hops aggressively to trap the ball. Flustered, the ballhandler coughs it up with ease. Sticking with the play, Oso is ready for the ball on the fast break, takes a beat to spin to an opening and…blows the layup. It happens. But the important part is Oso is always ready, and in position.

Another example of perfect execution with a flair of creativity. Oso is a great screener, often considered a lost art in young bigs. Here he hunches over, making his body as big as possible to lock up the ballhandler’s defender. He rides this mismatch to the tin, and then, after a poor delivery, is nimble enough to spin mid-air and find a shooter. Ighodaro is not just capable of running your plays, but is prepared to adjust when things go awry.

Ighodaro is excellent with positioning on both sides of the court. Here he is vigilant to prevent the clear out, and then also the entry to Joel Soriano, despite being disadvantaged by 35 pounds. He gets leverage both high (pulling Soriano’s shoulder back) and low (getting under his center of gravity). When the Marquette defense breaks down anyways, Oso is ready to help — but not too far. Staying one step away, he has just enough time to rotate back for the block.

This type of feeling out positioning as not a strict guideline but basis to then make plays is the hallmark of Oso Ighodaro’s game. Any NBA team would be comforted by his stable presence, but also feel comfortable running second side actions in an instant. He has done this at a very high level with Marquette – bolstered by excellent finishing touch – and would be just as reliable in the NBA.

The post How Prospects Read the Game appeared first on Swish Theory.

That’s the first question I ask myself as I begin the process for my 2024 NBA draft board. By separating production, feel and athletic premiums, I will try to show my notes as I sort out my analysis of 2024 prospects.

Starting with production makes sense given it is the most observable, and by far. Players produce by getting stats, and we have plenty of stats. However, it is not as simple as a 1:1 translation, as many highly productive college players struggle to reach close to that production in the pros. The reverse – little production leading to great production – is rarer, but still occurs.

For our analysis, the definition of production will be something like: “able to make things happen almost by accident through presence and skill.” The “by accident” part works to strip away feel from the equation, which will be the next article. “Through presence and skill” aims to remove the athletic component, the third prong.

While grading prospects based on expectations of future production is impossible with 100% accuracy, the hope is we can land close enough to separate our views from consensus. Rather than spend a long article describing how production can play out on a basketball court, I illustrate how production occurs through five examples.

Tier 1: Dominance

Primary Example: Zach Edey

How does he produce on the court?

Zach Edey is the pinnacle of production, as shown by his NCAA-leading Box Plus-Minus of 14.3. This is the 12th highest mark in the barttorvik.com database, after posting the 13th highest mark the season prior. Edey is a beast.

His production is far from hidden, either. At 7’4”, 300 pounds with a 7’10.5” wingspan, Edey is gargantuan. His movement ability has improved every year, too. With his combined size and movement abiliy, Edey creates events on the floor almost on accident. Add in nimble footwork and elite spatial awareness and you have a player not just lumbering around but dodging and flipping hips as well at his size.

It would be miserable to be screened by Edey or have to box him out. That physical dominance earns Edey a 10 out of 10 for production, but not just for current rather than expectations in the pros.

How easily does he produce?

The margins Edey wins by are astronomical. It is tough to scratch the ceiling above rebounding 26% of defensive opportunities or 17% of offensive ones. When he posts up, he is capable of holding that position for many seconds awaiting an entry pass, and then is able to convert that into a hook, drop step, or just straight dunking right over his opponent. There is more scoring versatility than meets the eye with Edey, simply through the variety of angles he has access to at his size.

In addition, Edey is a vigilant screener and passer. It is easy to imagine him as an NBA-level screener at his size and movement ability, and likely a very good one. He has figured out how to double-hand kick-out pass above all opponents’ heads, more difficult in the NBA with swarming long-wingspanned defenders, but Edey’s size to find better angles won’t go away.

How will this get harder in the NBA and how can he adapt?

My counter-intuitive take is it might, in fact, get easier in the NBA. At the college level Edey has to deal with a double or triple team every single time he touches the ball. This has likely boosted his assist rate (again, the biggest area of production concern), but raised the degree of difficulty on his finishes (not that it mattered). The ease with which Edey can navigate multiple surrounding defenders swiping at the ball to still turn and finish should not go unnoticed, and might indeed lead to continued easy buckets in the pros.

Edey’s weakness is defending away from the basket, but as a likely drop defender that should have little impact on his overall production. His steals will be low but blocks high (he has swatted 8% of opponent attempts) and rebounding should continue to be above average for a big, if not flat out excellent.

Edey has improved his movement ability and fitness quality every year with Purdue. This provides a lot of encouragement to his ability to adapt to the pros. However, it is possible (if not likely) that his opponent will have to do more of the adapting, to Edey’s size and skill. Edey has put up historic usage and rebounding rates while shooting a spectacular 67% true shooting (84% at the rim, 41% midrange, 72% from the line) to the point that even a standard deviation drop would still be excellent. He makes things happen on the court constantly and will at the next level, too.

The question of whether the speed of the game is too much for Edey ignores the major strides he’s made in his fitness and also his dominance per minute. He might need to make additional improvements to physique to play over 30 minutes per game but he has shown the ability to do that the past two seasons at Purdue. Advanced training in the NBA (Zach has not yet turned 22) can help that along. However, Edey’s talent is worth slowing down for, and that would only likely be a little.

Examples of others in this tier?

None

Tier 2: Conditional Dominance

Primary Example: Reed Sheppard

How does he produce on the court?

Reed is on the opposite end compared to Edey’s stature: at 6’3” and 187 pounds, Sheppard faces an uphill battle for his production. He compensates with everything else.

To be a productive player you have to make unlikely events possible, and that’s exactly what Reed does. His greatest strength is his positioning and hand placement, as one thinks themselves open to only be surprised by a last second Sheppard. Sheppard’s production is difficult to separate from his feel, as he moves across the court almost automatically in optimal position. The production is real and significant all over the court, as Sheppard’s 12.4 Box Plus-Minus is the highest for all freshmen by a long shot. Indeed, he only trails Zion Williamson, Anthony Davis, Chet Holmgren, Michael Beasley, Evan Mobley, Karl-Anthony Towns and Kevin Love in the all-in-one box score statistic. The height hasn’t mattered to reach historic production already compared to his age group.

This means Sheppard’s production is all-encompassing, from stocks to rebounds to assists and points. By being in the right position and having the skill to capitalize, Sheppard looks like one of the most productive college players of all time.

How easily does he produce?

What prevents Sheppard from landing in the first tier is his stature at only 6’3” (and that might be generous). Simply by that fact the margins for him to overcome are more significant than for someone like Zach Edey who will always be a foot taller than Sheppard. His handle is also more functional than masterful, limiting his roaming with the ball and thus blocking off an area of potential production. Neither has mattered in the least for Sheppard, but he may find himself struggling to have an impact inside the arc against a trying matchup here and there in the pros.

The production on defense, however, is undeniable. Sheppard feels omnipresent on the court, rotating faster than one can process watching him. He is very strong, capable of banging in the post and stonewalling drives, but more importantly knows how to leverage that strength. This will give him a lynchpin on defense, not being attacked physically, to then make things happen with his rapid, accurate hand movements or by popping out of nowhere.

The distance shooting is bankable, too. He has taken 8 threes per 100 possessions and made over half of them. His release is lightning fast with little load time and good release point. That volume shooting will help space the court at any level, making closeouts easier to reduce the burden on his handle, and also open up passing lanes. Reed is not the most manipulative passer but, similar to his handle, is excellent at making it functional nonetheless.

How will this get harder in the NBA and how can he adapt?

Sheppard is so masterful in what he does well and versatile across the court it is highly likely he will produce at a high level in the NBA. The biggest challenge is the longer wingspans blocking off his passing lanes on offense and making his contests more difficult on defense. But Reed has already found ways to compensate for both. He gets off the floor very quickly with good ‘instant vertical.’ His hand placement often shows awareness to exactly where an opponent’s release point will be, or where they will gather before the attempt.

Sheppard’s feel for the game hints at future improvements, but that is for the next article. Sheppard is capable of producing (and likely very well) at an NBA level today with his activity, physicality and versatility of skillset. He creates events almost automatically as he gets into an opponent’s body or lets it fly in a split second from deep. Despite his stature, he is imposing physically in his own way.

While there can be knits to pick for his athletic tools, getting blown by or shot over here and there, he has used those opportunistically to reposition and make something happen even so.

Examples of others in this tier?

Jonathan Mogbo, Ron Holland

Tier 3: Omnipresence

Primary Example: PJ Hall

How does he produce on the court?

Post ups, spot ups, rolling to the basket. Cuts, transition looks, putbacks. PJ Hall does all of those things at least once per game. He also does that while vacuuming up rebounds, blocking shots and getting some assists and steals. His 30% usage for Clemson is top 10 in the country.

PJ Hall is active. Although not the quickest laterally (steals his weakest stat), Hall is a bruising big, listed at 6’10” and 238 pounds, who is physical all over the court. His front line speed and explosion is better than the mobility otherwise would suggest.

And yes, he scores from all over. While not the most difficult of looks – he only has five made shots off the dribble – it points to his variety of usage. By being strong and physical and constantly in place, Hall is ready.

How easily does he produce?

Hall is only in the third tier for this reason: the margins are often thin, especially for his scoring. His rebounding is likely the most ironclad contribution: Hall has a decent wingspan and can get off his feet quickly. Contested boards become clean ones often, with PJ claiming his with fervor.

The blocks come next, again benefitting from his interior strength and above average leaping. While far from a primary rim protector, an opponent would at least not be able to lose track of Hall’s location.

Hall has plenty of scoring versatility in college, which works for him in some ways but against in others. To start with the bad news, there is no obvious easy day one offensive specialty. His outside shot is okay (33% from deep, 79% from the line) with better luck inside the arc (57% from two). His primary scoring output comes from post ups, at 7.4 per game.

The good news is the breadth of skill means you don’t have to choose any single way to use him. Hall can fill in admirably in many spots. His post ups are not slow and plodding but decisive and featuring many drop step dunks. Posting up might not be his sweet spot but rather a means to an end.

How will this get harder in the NBA and how can he adapt?

The biggest difficulty for Hall on an NBA floor will be sticking to his man. While likely quick enough to guard your average big, he would often be faced with an athletic gap when defending in space. His fitness and physicality will counter that, a locked in facet of his game regardless of competition.

The biggest question is his willingness to let it fly, a major source of production in itself. Should he continue to let it fly with little hesitation, perhaps bolstered by a little more improvement in his percentages, Hall being in Tier 3 means he has more than enough stuff to stick around.

Examples of others in this tier?

Cody Williams, Matas Buzelis

Tier 4: Consistent Presence

Primary Example: KJ Simpson

How does he produce on the court?

Playing against KJ Simpson must feel like whack-a-mole: wherever you snuff out his movement, a moment later he’s popping up elsewhere. At just 6’2”, Simpson overcomes his stature a few ways: his strength, his instincts, his vertical pop, his quickness. These all make Simpson difficult to screen and difficult to keep out of the paint.

Let’s return to our definition of production, “how many things does he make happen by accident?” As he’s #13 in the NCAA for Box Plus-Minus, it seems a lot. He rebounds (16% rate), assists (26%) and gets plenty of steals (3.4%). He leads his team in usage at 27%. The statistical case for Simpson is very strong.

Simpson is capable of no-load threes as well as skying in for the occasional dunk (9 so far this season). He gets into his pull-up smoothly with four self-created perimeter points per game. He may not be a traditional tank knocking people around to cause chaos, but he can do it surgically while powerfully.

How easily does he produce?

The visual evidence is murkier than the stellar statistical resume. KJ Simpson wins often by small margins, but is intentional enough in his application that he gives just enough effort to win. This hints at Simpson being able to scale up or down at the NBA level as he can deliberately focus his efforts onto different roles. Need an on-ball initiator? An off-ball catch and shooter? A closeout attacker? A ball-moving connector? Simpson can effectively do any of these.

On defense, the steals come by activity and physicality. Simpson can bully weaker NCAA guards, even at only 189 pounds. He hits screeners when he is screened and boxes out hard. These might not all create events but it does carve out space on the court, and more than all but a few NCAA guards.

How will this get harder in the NBA and how will he adapt?

The NBA is not kind to small guards. But how small does Simpson play, really? There will be many plays that simply sail over his head which would not at the NCAA level, with the NBA full of big and wing creators. But Simpson’s role and athletic versatility will ease the adjustment.

While small guards still survive in the league, the margins are very thin. Simpson needs to continue refining his toolset to ensure an NBA impact. Already built and quick and a good leaper, Simpson is not far off from the median point guard’s athleticism, and may be greater than. But the easy victories will stop, only tough ones from here. This is why I ultimately knocked him down to an 8.5, in spite of a stellar of a statistical resume as nearly anyone in the NCAA.

Simpson is a good bet to find a way to contribute, but the degree is highly uncertain. Regardless, that’s a bet I’d be comfortable making in the first round.

Examples of others in this tier?

Tyler Kolek, Baylor Scheierman

Tier 5: Selective Presence

Primary Example: Milan Momcilovic

How does he produce on the court?

Milan Momcilovic is not convincing as an NBA-level athlete, but has the tools and skill to succeed regardless. His production is the most siloed of any we’ve described so far: he takes (and makes) a ton of threes. Despite this narrow avenue of contribution, Momcilovic still ranks in the top 10 for high major freshman by Box Plus-Minus. This is because Milan is 6’8” and has a quick, high release. Sometimes the analysis doesn’t need a second question: Momcilovic produces by hitting unblockable shots.

The rest of his game is middling, dragged down by his poor foot speed, limited burst and stiffness. A 12% defensive rebound rate and 2.1% block rate are closer to the stats of a 6’5” prospect than a 6’8” one, but there is a baseline of production nonetheless. And while Milan is not very mobile, he is still enough to be a consistent presence guarding fours.

How easily does he produce?

Momcilovic’s production is tilted towards three point volume, and that’s where he’s winning by large margins. The effective release height on his shot is more like a 6’10” player than a 6’8” one, releasing above his head with great arc. When we’re talking about projectable production, it is difficult to get more bankable than a release point that high going in at a 40% rate on very good volume. But that’s what we have with Milan.

His size comes in handy, even if not snagging down rebounds or skying for blocks. At his size he can set effective screens and generally be a big body on the court. Even when he’s not adding to his stat total, he’s taking up more space than the average NBA player.

How will this get harder in the NBA and how will he adapt?

He will be attacked on defense. Finding the right player to park Milan on will be essential for his early career success. Milan has little chance of hanging in with either 3s or 5s, relegated to the non-explosive 4s. That makes the margins tighter on offense where he has to be successful with his strengths. This is why Momcilovic is in Tier 5, as there is little guarantee he can hang in enough to capitalize on his strengths.

But the bedrock of high volume, high accuracy three point shooting is a function needed by every team, and Momcilovic is convincing as almost anyone in the class for that role.

Examples of others at this grade?

Wooga Poplar, Tre Mitchell

The post How Prospects Make Things Happen appeared first on Swish Theory.

Quickly turning into one of the more polarizing prospects of the 2024 draft cycle, Ron Holland boasts prototypical size for a NBA wing standing 6’8 (in shoes) with a 6’11 wingspan. Holland has perhaps experienced the most rapid development arc of all the lottery-level prospects, first coming onto the national scene playing for an elite high school program in Duncanville (Texas) where he starred alongside 2023 lottery pick, Anthony Black. For the majority of his high school career Holland made his bones as an energy big-man, who relentlessly crashed the glass and was an opportunistic scorer. Now playing for the
G-League’s Ignite program, Holland has expanded his game to the perimeter, sliding into a more of a combo-forward role.

The role change, combined with the massive leap in competition, have yielded predictably mixed results for Holland. Shooting a paltry 21.3% from three on a little over 3 attempts per game, along with a .72 Assist-to-Turnover ratio, Holland has had his fair share of record scratch moments where his lack of refinement as a ballhandler and shooter have been highlighted. However, Holland has balanced these growing pains with perhaps the most impressive flashes in the class, where he has parlayed his exceptional burst into persistent rim pressure which has allowed him to play-make for others. All this goes without mentioning how effective Holland has been defensively, displaying rare off-ball instincts for an 18 year old wing and a penchant for defensive playmaking (Holland is averaging 2.2 steals and 0.9 blocks per game). The developmental trajectory Holland is already on combined with the archetypal value of a two-way wing is what lands Holland at #1 on my board.

Ahmed Jama

2. Nikola Topic, KK Mega / KK Crvena

Nikola Topic has played 16 games this season for KK Mega Soccerbet. During that time he was able to put his NBA skillset on fully display. Topic is excellent on the ball, primarily as a pick and roll ball handler, leading to 1.01 points per possessions per Synergy. His ability to attack the basket with his first step while having the ball on a string makes him exceptional. Once he gets to the rim, Topic finishes at a 65% clip. The playmaking from Topic is also a standout skill, specifically the timing of his passing on back cuts, skip passes after reading the low man, and feathery touch on lobs to rollers. Regardless of who he plays for, expect Topic to be smart with the ball and make sound passing reads.

If you got this far you’re probably asking, “why haven’t I read anything about Topic’s shooting?” That is a trickier question. The free throw numbers are there, shooting 86.5% which bodes well for his future as a shooter at the NBA level. But the release is too low to get off against NBA-level athleticism. The question may not be can he shoot it but at what volume. Last but not least is the defense. Topic has shown that he can sometimes be beat off the dribble and has been prone to foul when guarding off-ball. He can ball-watch and not rotate correctly at times.

At the end of the day, Topic deserves his spot as a top pick in this particular draft. In this league you need ballhandlers who can create advantages and capitalize: Nikola Topic can do both of those things.

Larry Golden

3. Alexandre Sarr, Perth

Every year of the modern draft, highly skilled seven-footers with shooting touch and the ability to play-make have upheld the top of the draft. With the 2024 NBA Draft, Alex Sarr is the newest addition to that group. Sarr’s coordination and mobility at 7’1” are truly remarkable and those movement skills translate to both sides of the ball, especially this season playing off the bench for the NBL’s Perth Wildcats. Sarr’s size, reach, and fluidity with larger strides give him the tools to have elite ground coverage and deter shots effectively at the rim. He also can backtrack at his size which makes him a defensive Swiss army knife, being able to protect the rim as the low man in different pick-and-roll coverages, a help-side rim protector, and even help at the nail. 

What Sarr does struggle with, however, is being able to take choppier steps which may affect him at times as he rolls or handles in traffic on offense or even create events in short areas on the defensive side of the ball. Dealing with sub-par vertical explosion, Sarr can mitigate some of those issues out of the dunker spot with his size and a quicker second jump.

Sarr has the potential to be an off-the-catch nightmare offensively, as with his combination of movement skills, touch, and size he can create mismatches consistently both in live-ball situations or into post-ups. While his handle does need work for his offensive game to actualize, Sarr’s potential as a shooter is intriguing with his touch around the rim and his high three-point volume relative to other seven-footers his age.

Roshan Potluri

4. Matas Buzelis, G League Ignite

The Lithuanian forward from Chicago, Matas Buzelis came into the G League season as the 7th best prospect on the RSCI list. The 6’10” forward is armed with shooting prowess and the ability to put the ball on the floor and handle it with flashes of real creativity. He may only be shooting 22.2% on 3.4 attempts this G League season but Matas has pristine shooting mechanics, fluid energy transfer, great touch, and a 43% 3-point shooting profile dating back to his senior year at Sunrise Christian. While Matas has a slender frame at the moment, he’s able to carve space off the catch by getting extremely low with his shin angles and lower leg flexibility. This enables his body to act as a lever against his defenders, leveraging this into opportunities to score with touch inside the arc or at the rim. 

Matas showcases his feel in these dribble-drive situations, often identifying where help comes from and acting on those passing opportunities. His feel also exudes itself on the defensive end where he’s great with his active and timely help whether that’s at the nail, in gaps, or even as a weakside tagger using his length to help deter an offense. He struggles a bit with closeouts as he can be upright at times on strong closeouts, battling back to recover in these possessions, but in general his lower leg flexibility allows him to mirror smaller, craftier offensive players. 

NBA teams are always looking for players with this description just due to the versatility they can provide on both sides of the ball. If Matas continues on the development path he is on, he has the makings of a truly unique dribble-pass-shoot wing that can bolster and supplement an NBA defense.

Roshan Potluri

5. Isaiah Collier, USC

Isaiah Collier was the top recruit in the country entering this college season and his sell as a prospect begins and ends with his ability to pressure the rim. Collier is a shorter guard with only one dunk on the season, but thrives beneath the rim with strength, craft and ambidextrous finishing. Collier averages over 5 layups a game while converting on 63.2% of those looks. That threat of rim pressure is the catalyst for his playmaking. Collier is excellent at spraying passes from within the teeth of the defense and creating looks for others, though his teammates’ success converting those looks has been dubious at best. 

Collier will need to shore up his turnovers, a result of over-aggressive driving, exuberant confidence and an occasionally loose handle. His jumper has been better than expected entering the year, but is far from a reliable weapon at this point in time and the defense certainly has a ways to go. Even with those limitations, Collier’s undeniable rim pressure and his incredible positional strength offer a tantalizing developmental proposition. The game is about buckets, and Collier’s ability to create them for himself and others is near the very top of this class. 

Tyler Wilson

6. Rob Dillingham, Kentucky

Rob Dillingham is a premier offensive talent and has been a reliable on-ball creator for Kentucky all season. The OTE alum has brought his up-tempo style to the Wildcats, and has leveraged his shiftiness and speed in downhill attacks in combination with his shooting to become a well-rounded threat on a consistent basis. Dillingham has true three-level scoring ability, with pull up range that goes well beyond the NBA three-point line, and he is also very effective coming off of screens. In the mid-range and inside, his soft touch and insanely deep floater package make him nearly unstoppable at getting a solid field goal attempt whenever he wants to. Not to be overlooked in Dillingham’s offensive skill set is his passing, which is surprisingly high level. For a player who’s floor game was questioned coming into college, Dillingham’s reads have been advanced, with adept passing out of nearly every offensive situation, from skip passes to corner on the move to the screen and roll and all in between. Equally capable of slotting in at both the point guard and off-guard positions, Rob Dillingham’s offensive game is as NBA-ready as they come.

Defensively are where the concerns start to rear their ugly head. Dillingham provides more than adequate effort and generates steals at a decent rate, but at a relatively slight 6’2 and 170 pounds, his physical attributes don’t lend themselves to being a plus defender, where his athleticism is negated, and at the NBA level opposing teams will certainly exploit Dillingham’s lack of size and girth. Even with his severe defensive issues, Rob Dillingham’s offensive game is so exemplary that he is a near bet to go in the lottery. Where exactly in the lottery that will be will come down to how NBA teams evaluate Dillingham’s offensive ceiling and his long-term role with their franchise, but with the talent he possesses, Dillingham is sure to make for a solid fit.

Corban Ford

7. Zaccharie Risacher, JL Bourg

In an NBA where three point shooting and ground coverage are king, Risacher has the profile of one of the best complementary wings in the class. A highly touted prospect, Risacher struggled mightily playing in the U19 FIBA tournament that saw him slide precipitously down draft boards. Fast forward a few months and Risacher is one of the best shooters in a competitive Jeep Elite league in France. 

Spot ups, off movement, over a heavy contest, Risacher has been excellent in nearly every facet of shooting the basketball. He has great positional height and length for his position and his release point makes most shots nearly unblockable. Risacher has been an incredibly solid team defender for JL Bourg this year, and while his point-of-attack defense and screen navigation certainly need some TLC, he has proven to be a positive presence on both ends this season as an 18-year-old. He is not the creator some hoped he would be entering the season, but his success as a two-way off-ball wing is an incredibly encouraging sign for his translation to a league that is constantly searching for more players like him.

Tyler Wilson

8. Kyle Filipowski, Duke

Kyle Filipowski is an intriguing skilled big man from Duke who has been rising up draft boards this cycle. Standing nearly 7 feet, Filipowski’s offensive skill set is one of tantalizing promise that is rapidly approaching consistent reality. His tremendous footwork and ability to put the ball on the floor make him a challenge to defend in the pick and roll action, a challenge that is compounded by the rapidly developing catch and shooter jumper that he has shown in pick and pops. Additionally, Filipowski is adept at making quick passing reads out of the short roll, while in straight post up situations, his soft touch and polish around the rim make him an extremely tough cover. While he may not ultimately figure as a main offensive hub, his game should slot in well as a secondary engine of efficient offense.

Defensively, Filipowski is at his best as a weak-side defender, where he brings his height to bear in an impactful way. He is very competent in a drop scheme defensively, where he moves just well enough to stay in front of the action, although he does struggle in a switch system where he simply isn’t quick enough to contain penetration from guards or faster forwards. He also struggles defending bigger and stronger post players, who are able to score at a high clip with him as the defender. Despite this, Kyle Filopowski projects as a very strong player in this year’s draft who can most certainly go high lottery, with his outside shooting and defensive versatility factoring in as possible swing skills.

Corban Ford

9. Donovan Clingan

The intrigue around Clingan as a lottery prospect starts with his ability to protect the rim. At 7’2” with a 7’7” wingspan and strong instincts as a shot blocker, Clingan has stretches where he completely shuts down the rim for opposing offenses. Where he differs from other recent rim protector prospects is his strength/frame, as he’s built more like Brook Lopez than a Chet Holmgren/Evan Mobley type. His ability to guard in space has been a little questionable this year, but it’s worth noting he’s dealt with multiple foot injuries and looked better in that department when he was healthy as a freshman.

On the offensive end Clingan isn’t the most diverse player and could stand to improve on his touch, but it’s still easy to imagine a role for him on that end in the NBA. His frame makes him an effective screen setter and he has the size and coordination to be dangerous as a roll man around the rim. He also has a basic but usable low post game and is a strong offensive rebounder, which will make it hard for teams to switch smaller defenders onto him. Between his potential as a defensive anchor and a relatively high floor offensive game, it’s easy to see why Clingan is a potential lottery pick.

AJ Carter

10. Tyler Smith, G League Ignite

Tyler Smith is 6’10 with a 7 foot WS, freshman aged, and can shoot the cover off the ball while also not being a defensive black hole. It really isn’t hard to see why he’s gaining traction as a lottery pick from a pure archetypal value standpoint. Tyler has had an unorthodox trajectory, as he’s spent the last two seasons playing in the Overtime Elite league. Part of what makes me so confident about Tyler is that he’s been relatively dominant in every stop of his career. In both years at OTE, Tyler averaged 20 pts per 40, as he quickly became known for being the league’s premier sharpshooter en route to being awarded Second Team All-OTE honors. He adapted quickly to the G League’s deeper 3P line, as he is currently shooting 39% from 3 on nearly 6 3s per 36 and 68% from the free throw line while averaging 12.8/5/1.4 per game. In short, he is an incredibly productive player in a pro league with an NBA ready skillset. 

What makes Tyler so unique, however, is his interior dominance: Smith averages over a dunk per game and is a true vertical threat as a roll man or cutter. How many elite NBA shooters are also able to screen and roll? Tyler also projects as a fairly instinctual secondary rim protector, able to rotate over and disrupt with his length and verticality. At the end of the day, Tyler just blends productivity and an enviable skill set in an NBA ready body. There are some concerns; his rim touch is poor and he often struggles to handle defenders inside the arc, hence why his volume/consistency on pull up 2s is quite low. Perhaps there is a cap on his feasible creation burden in the league, or maybe his precocious productivity in offball roles proxies some latent creation upside. Nonetheless, Tyler Smith is statistically the most impressive G League Ignite prospect with an NBA ready skillset, and he can guard and play inside on BOTH sides. His game is an intuitive equilibrium amidst the ever swinging pendulum between skilled bullyball (see: the last 5 MVP winners) and small ball.

Avinash Chauhan

11. Ja’Kobe Walter, Baylor

In a league where the highest premium is placed on having shooting available, so as to serve as a catalyst for high level offenses, Ja’kobe Walter very well could be the most potent shooter in the 2024 draft class. Walter is currently shooting a blistering 43.5% from three on a robust 11 attempts per 100 possessions. While virtually all of Walter’s attempts have been assisted up until this point (96.7%), this belies how versatile a shooter Walter has been over the course of his career prior to his arrival at Baylor, where he has been pigeon-holed into a smaller, off-ball role. Walter prior to college consistently
displayed the ability to shoot from distance on a variety of platforms, comfortable getting into his shot dribbling with either hand.

What separates Walter’s shooting from his contemporaries is how decisive he is off the catch when he inevitably receives hard close-outs. This is evidenced by Walter’s robust 38.7% free-throw rate, a rare benchmark for an off-ball spacer to reach. Walter’s sinewy frame and limited foot-speed for the position limit his effectiveness on the defensive end, and while he is somewhat able to compensate by forcing turnovers with his quick hands (2.7% steal rate), it is difficult to see Walter ever becoming an impactful player at this end of the court. Ultimately though, Walter’s combination of quick off-ball processing and versatile shooting make him an enticing complimentary bet.

Ahmed Jama

12. Kel’el Ware, Indiana

Kel’el Ware is an intriguing prospect, a 7’0” big who is a fluid mover at his size. He’s a complete rolling big that dunks a ton of his lob opportunities. Ware’s game is tantalizing not just for the rolling and screening, but also his NBA-level post up game. He can finish over the top with his go-to jump hook or get to his fadeaway. Indiana trusts him on the perimeter to make passing reads and he’s shown some ability to read the floor and know when to dive cut. The skillset is there for Kel’el Ware and the concerns have turned down a bit. Let’s hope the motor continues to run hot.

Victor Wembanyama is now in the NBA, and if you’re doing things right, finding guys for your frontcourt who can compete is paramount. Ware is someone that if it all clicks could be fun to watch and impactful at the next level.

Larry Golden

13. Reed Sheppard, Kentucky

Despite tough competition for minutes in a loaded Kentucky guard room, Reed Sheppard has been one of the biggest draft risers in the NCAA thus far. He’s one of the best standstill shooters in the country (56% 3pt, 90% FT), makes good decisions with the ball in his hands, and is a high level defender thanks to a rare combo of elite hand-eye coordination and defensive instincts. He’s also producing at a historic level for a young prospect, trailing only Zion Williamson and Anthony Davis (both #1 overall picks) in BPM for a freshman over the last 15 years. 

While you can’t really argue against Reed being a good basketball player, most of the questions around him stem from positional fit and perceived lack of upside. At 6’3” with limited athleticism he has the measurables of an NBA PG, yet Sheppard doesn’t do much to break defenses down off the dribble and is below the standard creation threshold typically needed to play Point Guard at the next level. Whoever drafts him may have to be a little creative with their lineup/roster construction to get the most out of Reed, but there’s little doubt about his ability to impact winning when he’s on the floor.

AJ Carter

14. Ryan Dunn, Virginia

Ryan Dunn is, simply, a master of mayhem. The 6’8 sophomore wing is the anchor of Virginia’s stifling defense, and he truly excels at initiating disorder on every plane of basketball geometry. The stats speak for themselves: Dunn is the first player since the legendary Thybulle to average 2 steals and 2 blocks per game, and he’s doing it with a cerebral combination of resounding athleticism and incredible defensive feel. Dunn is on pace to put up the first 10% block/4% steal season ever (?) and he leads the nation in adjusted defensive rating. By all accounts, Dunn is the most impactful defender in the nation, but it’s important to highlight just HOW he’s doing this. At 6’8 with a 7’1 wingspan, Dunn is a remarkably versatile event creator. It’s stupidly difficult to project anyone to guard all five positions, but Dunn slides on the perimeter with slower guards and has the range to rotate over as a secondary rim protector. He is genuinely the best bet to guard all 5 positions in the league in recent memory.

Dunn’s movement skills are second to none – with his collection of tomahawk dunks in the halfcourt and rapid baseline cuts on offense serving as even more evidence of his agility and lateral quickness. What makes Dunn so special, however, is his incredibly quick processing. Dunn leverages his range and length with an extraordinary level of consistency as he quickly diagnoses vulnerabilities in Virginia’s defensive infrastructure. His ability to pivot and make free safety-esque rotations to disrupt offensive flow is perhaps not the most orthodox interpretation of feel, but make no mistake: Ryan Dunn is a high feel player. This “feel” carries over on offense, where Dunn is a mistake free player. He’s posted a 1.2 assist to turnover rate, miniscule turnover rate, and despite a seemingly low assist rate, I was surprised by his willingness to make some intriguing, rapidfire reads, whether it be kickouts from inside or from the post to baseline cutters. The rest of the offense is questionable, sure: Dunn’s offensive repertoire is almost entirely off cuts and in transition, with a sprinkling of spot ups that some may be happy to glaze over. Shooting under 60% at the line and under 30% from 3 as a sophomore is certainly questionable, especially considering Dunn is quite a bit older for a sophomore (January 2003 birthday). But at the end of the day, Dunn has only played a year and a half at the college level, he has impressive tools and elite decision making to boot, and if feel is truly indicative of outlier development, then who says he can’t undergo unexpected offensive progress? Even if he’s a negligible offense player, it doesn’t hurt that he’s the best defensive prospect that I can remember.

Avinash Chauhan

The post 2024 NBA Draft: Lottery Board 1.0 appeared first on Swish Theory.

Malik Mack’s Offensive Juice

In the last ~70 years, there’s only been one player from Harvard to suit up in an NBA game: Jeremy Lin. Often lost in the legendary underdog story is just how dominant Lin was in the Ivy. 67.1% at the rim, 7.8% stock rate, .691 FTr, 30.8% assist rate as a junior? It’s hard to draw up a wilder stat line for a 6’3” guard (Reed Sheppard may like a word). 

It’s been a long while since Linsanity, and few Ivy Leaguers have established themselves as true pro prospects in the last two decades. Princeton’s Devin Cannady got some run with the Magic from 2020-2022. The Jazz picked Yale’s Miye Oni at 58th in 2019. But today, Harvard Freshman Malik Mack should be on everyone’s draft radar. 

Through ten games the 6’1” guard is stuffing the stat sheet, posting 20.1 points, 4.4 assists, and 1.1 steals a night on 62.5% true shooting. He’s hitting a blistering 47.2% of his 10.4 3-point attempts/100. Shooting versatility is one of the main selling points for Mack, with his smooth lefty stroke. He gets plenty of elevation on his jumper and his high release point allows him to shoot comfortably over the outreaching arms of defenders. 

Harvard has done a great job utilizing Mack’s movement shooting ability. He’s looked comfortable firing out of DHOs and off screens, particularly with rightward momentum. His fluidity and flexibility on these actions pops off the screen, as he’s capable of running at high speeds before flowing into his shot. I love the sudden motion in the first clip below – going from slow to fast to create separation without the ball in his hands. It’s great to see such off-ball aptitude from a guy carrying a 29.8% usage rate. 

Mack’s off-the-dribble shot is equally as dangerous – he’s made more unassisted threes this year (13) than he has assisted threes (11). Despite lacking top end explosiveness, Mack creates just enough space for his jumper with a tight and crafty handle. Using hang-dribbles, jabs, and deceptive crossovers, Mack keeps defenders honest. He’s especially comfortable on step-backs and fade-aways, as his shot seems to have a natural backwards sway.

The scoring is the obvious pitch, but he’s also ahead of the curve as a playmaker. He’s a one-handed lefty passer through and through, capable of making the weak-side corner skip and hitting the roller with slick wraparounds. I’ve been impressed by his ability to stay composed and make the correct read versus at-the-level ball screen coverages. The delivery in the first clip is just nasty. With four defenders collapsing, Mack pulls the ball behind his leg and somehow whips it between everyone to the right wing. 

Mack is one to keep an eye on for the rest of the season. While there are plenty of challenges for the undersized guard to overcome (finishing amongst the trees and defense), he’s a world class shot-maker, and it’s encouraging to see his abilities as a playmaker and off-ball shooter shining this early in his college career. 

Otega Oweh’s Power and Instincts

Oklahoma has been dominant in non-conference play, with huge wins over Iowa, USC, Providence, and Arkansas. A large reason for their success has been sophomore Otega Oweh, a burly guard whose strength and power overwhelm opponents on both ends of the floor. 

Oweh does most of his damage in the paint, with 65% of his shot attempts this season coming at the rim. He’s tough to stop with a head of steam going downhill, getting low on his drives and using his long stride lengths and change of direction ability to generate paint touches. Once he gets to the rim, Oweh uses his large frame to keep defenders on his hip and get to lefty extension finishes. 

Oweh has been weirdly effective as a shooter this year, having made ten of his fourteen three point attempts. The sample size is obviously tiny, and given that he finished 1 for 4 last season, his shooting projection is far from a sure thing. He’s put some clean-looking makes on film, like this confident spot-up over a solid contest… 

But notice how low his release point is on the shot below.

Regardless of the inevitable “will he draw closeouts?” questions, Oklahoma does a good job scheming him rim touches, using him as a trailer or getting him downhill off hand-offs. He’s decisive enough off the catch to eat up space that defenders give him. 

While I appreciate his aggressiveness, I think he could let the game slow down a little more. His drives rarely turn into assists, as he’s prone to passing up open shooters on the perimeter or dump-off windows in favor of jumping without a plan and forcing up impossible layups. 8.1% is a poor assist rate for someone who gets downhill as often as he does. 

He also generates rim attempts without the ball in his hands, using his off-ball feel to pick out spots as a cutter and offensive rebounder. In the first clip, notice how he perfectly times his move with the backline defender helping on the drive. Then he makes the high-effort tip-in as time expires. 

His hustle and instincts translate to the defensive side of the floor. He’s a steal and slam waiting to happen, frequently intercepting passes and taking it to the house. He has the lower-body strength to hold up in the post and the mobility and hands to disrupt as an off-ball chaser. He has a 5.1% steal rate this season, right in line with his 5.3% steal rate last year. 

Oweh has been a two-way force to start the season. His NBA sell is tough without the shot coming around, but his defensive toughness, slashing, cutting, and raw production make him a guy worth checking out. 

Reed Sheppard is Doing It All

Reed Sheppard’s numbers don’t even seem real. I promise I’m not exaggerating. 15.4 BPM, 77.0 True Shooting%, 4.0 Block%, 5.9 Steal%, 57.1 3P%, 21.1 AST%, 86.7 at rim FG% … we really haven’t seen anything like this. 

His shooting prowess should stand out to any NBA team. Sheppard has consistent mechanics, and he’s capable of hitting shots off the catch and off the dribble from well beyond the three point line. Inside the arc, he uses his feathery touch to knock down difficult looks off the bounce. 

My question is just how audacious is Sheppard? 8.6 attempts/100 possessions is solid volume, but it isn’t that high for a shooter of his caliber. It’s tough in an offense full of guards and ball-handlers, but I love the blips of him not giving a damn. Watch below as he pulls-up versus an under from the logo and spots up from way way way behind the line and fires. Could we see a volume spike in an NBA offense? Immanuel Quickley has taken ~2.5 more threes/100 with the Knicks than he did in two years at Kentucky.

Most of the time, Sheppard makes the right play. He’s a steady connective passer who does a good job finding the open man. He constantly has his head up – I love the vision to find Aaron Bradshaw running hard to the rim in semi-transition. 

However, I worry about how his creation looks at the next level, particularly as a slasher. Sheppard rarely creates layups for himself in the half-court. He too often drives without even glancing at the rim, turning his body away from the basket before kicking it out to the perimeter. Sheppard has a solid first step, but his third and fourth steps slow him down. His strides shorten and he struggles to explode all the way to the rack. This can lead to some rough looking turnovers when the gap help is well-prepared. 

Sheppard’s defense has been remarkable, albeit not perfect. There are moments of off-ball spaciness and jumpiness on closeouts, and some of his gambles do not pay off. At the same time, Sheppard has perhaps the quickest hands of any prospect in recent memory, making life hell for opponents on the ball. He has a unique ability to evade screens and poke the ball loose from ball-handlers without fouling. It’s like he’s spamming the steal button in rookie mode on 2k. 

This should be an easy post-entry pass, but Sheppard comes in from behind to force a turnover. And then he finishes the play contesting the fast break lay-up with verticality that you don’t see from a 6’3” guard. 

While there may be some athletic and self-creation limitations here, I’m struggling to see the argument against Reed Sheppard’s NBA case. He makes too many good things happen on both ends of the floor. 

Dailyn Swain’s Movement Skills and Defensive Aptitude

Dailyn Swain probably isn’t going to end up in this year’s draft class, averaging just 5.3 points per game on 14.0% usage, but the 18-year old wing has caught my eye with his advanced defensive skill set. 

It starts with his ball-screen defense, where Swain is incredibly nimble at 6’7”. He glides over screens with relative ease, staying attached to his man, getting skinny, and dipping his shoulder to fight through. Even if he ends up a little behind play, Swain has the recovery tools to regain ground and engulf shots from behind. 

His awareness here is excellent. Swain gets caught up in the screen and gives up an advantage. However, he recognizes the pass to the roller coming and peels off from the ball-handler, drifting down and forcing a turnover. 

He’s another guy with elite hand placement, keeping his mitts active for on-ball deflections and strips. He boasts a 3.8% block rate and a 3.4% steal rate, and only commits 2.3 fouls per 40 minutes. Away from the ball, he uses his long stride lengths to cover swaths of ground, and he’s capable of helping at the rim or in a gap and recovering back to his man. 

Offensively, I’m still trying to figure out exactly what Swain is. He hasn’t made a three since November 13th (3/11 on the season), and while he has solid vision, he also throws too many errant passes. I’m curious to see how he develops as a creator given how fluid he looks with the ball in his hands. He looks like a true vet in the clip below, spinning to his right, getting his defender leaping with an up-fake, and drawing the foul. Plays like this, along with his 50.0 FTr, are indicative of his feel and potential craft. 

Again, I doubt Swain generates enough buzz to be a one-and-done, but he offers an intriguing package as a young, defense-oriented wing with untapped offensive upside. 

The post Early Season Standouts: Malik Mack, Otega Oweh, Reed Sheppard, and Dailyn Swain appeared first on Swish Theory.

So much of NBA team building is predicated on teams’ ability to forecast changes in the league and adapt accordingly. Whether it be an evolving meta game, alterations in the CBA which change team’s cap structure, or an ever-expanding pool of talent, the league is in a perpetual state of flux. And with the new CBA being enacted this summer, NBA teams incapable of determining the requirements necessary to succeed in this new era could be doomed to residing in the basement of league standings.

We’ve seen this equivalent to basketball Darwinism play out time and time again, most recently in 2016 when teams naively commit a disproportionate amount of their salary cap to players due to a temporary spike in the cap brought on by additional TV revenue. A quick examination of teams salary caps over the past few years will find their books littered with contracts from 2016 still being paid due to these rash spending decisions.

In my mind the most consequential addition to the new CBA are the new luxury cap rules, specifically article 7 sections D and E, which detail the restrictions both financially and transaction-wise placed on teams who exceed the cap. Without getting into specifics, these rules drastically increase the financial burden of teams who exceed the cap, with the tax burden compounding with every increment a team passes the tax level. In addition to this, other roster building mechanisms such as trade and mid-level salary exceptions will be removed from teams surpassing these cap thresholds. Ultimately, this will place teams in the difficult position in the short run, having already signed players to sizeable contracts under the old CBA; and in the long run because in my opinion, the assumption that relatively competent younger players on rookie contracts will be extended is going to become less prevalent.

The value of vacant cap space around the league will only increase as more punitive salary cap rules make teams reluctant to commit to players who may not fit their roster’s needs. In my opinion teams will become more tentative in trading for or signing veteran players as the financial risk which comes with these more lucrative contracts, paired with the potential these players don’t properly congeal with the roster, outweighs the perceived benefit. However, a tool to combat this roster building quagmire, in my eyes, is readily available in the draft. The tool in question being Pre-Drafting.

Pre-drafting, simply put, is the idea of teams drafting players a year (or two) before they are seen as capable of regularly contributing to an NBA team. Conventional wisdom of the draft has often been reduced to, “there are only around 15-20 players worth taking every year.” And while there are definitely years more scant in talent than others, I believe this circular reasoning persisted because teams have improperly framed the question of what constitutes a NBA caliber prospect.

Typically teams will opt for players who have met certain markers of statistical production which have historically been considered acceptable. These production markers, relative to a player’s age, are used to whittle down the player pool into a group of what teams consider ‘draft-able prospects’. Generally this a respectable framework to apply to the draft and has yielded good results over the year. However, as earlier mentioned, its necessary to adapt to the changing NBA landscape, and the current drafting approach for teams with substantial contractual obligations leaves much to be desired.

These high achieving teams with large contracts usually do not have the luxury of choice when it comes to drafting, the players with the highest production relative to age are long gone. In turn, these teams opt for the players who hit the most of their preferred statistical markers over the past season. This predictable line of reasoning leads to the idea of draft results, on the whole, being predictable. This parochial view of players only being deemed draft-able if they meet a certain statistical threshold (statistics which were more than likely accumulated in a basketball environment that is impossible to replicate in the professional ranks) has led many teams to squander what are becoming increasingly crucial, cost-controlled assets, in draft picks. Instead, if teams view prospects through a continuum, and consider each age-eligible prospect as part of the draft pool when they matriculate into college or one of the various professional leagues, they could drastically increase the probability of attaining positive return-on-investment from their draft picks.  

With the concept of pre-drafting having been explained, the question arises of which prospects should be sought after under this philosophy? In the past, pre-draft prospects have been conflated with whoever the youngest, highest-ranked high school prospects may have been. I can not stress enough how far this is from the truth. The heuristic I have applied when seeking pre-draft candidates are prospects who possess an intersection of outlier physical traits, at least one foundational skill I am confident will translate to the next level, and an unobtrusive game. Unobtrusive game being one which doesn’t require a high volume of on-ball reps for the player’s early development, as this reduces the number of variables which need to be accounted for when projecting pre-draft candidates.

Condensing this logic into a word, the ideal pre-draft candidate is one which allows for strategic multiplicity. As earlier stated, league rosters are constantly in a state of flux, incorporating a young player whose skillset can be integrated into numerous contexts, without stunting their individual development, is a player worth investing in as soon as they are made available. With the new CBA adding more financial guarantees to 2^nd round players, the league has never had more ammunition to entice young players to entering the draft pool. Professional teams in any sport sustain high level rosters by consistently winning at the margins, using draft capital to cultivate talent internally at a low cost with the pre-drafting methodology in mind, presents an option to do just this.

What makes the 2024 draft class especially interesting, in my mind, is many of the most compelling long-term prospects fall under the pre-draft candidate umbrella. These players more than likely will not experience immediate success at the college level, and in fact what would be the most conducive to their long term development is receiving reps at the professional level as soon as possible.

There is not a player in the 2024 draft class who better illustrates this point than 6’7” incoming freshman big man Joseph ‘JoJo’ Tugler.

The Intro

Joseph Tugler is a 6’7” 4/5 man from Houston, Texas, who exploded onto the national scene after an AAU season spent with the Elite Youth Basketball League (EYBL) team Houston Hoops. Tugler went into his final AAU season with only one college offer, from local low-major school Lamar University, and did not receive his first Power-5 offer (from Kansas State) until April of his junior year. Shortly after the Kansas State offer, Tugler received an offer from local school and national power Houston University, committing soon after. The reason for mentioning the timeline of Tugler’s recruitment is to clarify how a potential NBA prospect could exist in such anonymity. Such a condensed recruiting timeline is almost unheard of, much of the outside perception of an incoming freshman is decided by the intrigue which builds up over the course of their recruiting cycle. Tugler concluding his recruitment so decisively is an anomaly amongst high-major recruits.

As is the case with many recruits who rise from relative obscurity, Tugler experienced a substantial growth spurt over the course of his high school career, growing over 3 inches from his freshman season to the beginning of his senior season. However, what is abnormal about Tugler’s physical development however, is the WAY he grew. While Tugler sprouted to 6’7” (in shoes), modest size for a frontcourt player, he boasts a 7’6” wingspan with enormous hands. Both can be seen in the picture below, posted by Houston basketball’s Director of Sports Performance Alan Bishop. (Listed height is without shoes)

However, tools are only as effective as their application, and Tugler has a keen understanding of how to apply his outlier physical dimensions to create havoc whenever the opportunity presents itself.

The diversity in Tugler’s event creation is perhaps the most notable aspect of his defense. It is rare to find a big equally as capable of creating turnovers on the perimeter as he is altering and blocking shots at the rim. What separates Tugler from a more conventional under-sized big, besides his unique anthropometric stats, is his movement skills. Tugler’s flexibility in his lower body is truly remarkable, allowing him to mirror smaller players on the perimeter comfortably. What struck me about Tugler’s fluidity, specifically his lateral movement, and has me confident the flashes of perimeter defense weren’t largely due to weaker competition is his biomechanics.

To fully understand Tugler’s lateral movement I’ll need to explain ‘foot-ground interaction. First of all, the most important characteristic of the foot-ground interaction in a basketball context is lateral banking. Lateral banking is the idea that if the contact surface between the athlete and the ground is flat, then all lateral forces will produced by friction between the foot and the ground, thus creating the most power. Simply put, the more contact you are able to make with the surface, the more force you will be able to generate. And if you are able to ‘bank’ the surface, i.e alter the angle of your foot ground interaction with the surface, you are able to create more contact with the surface, and as a result, apply more force to change directions quicker. The concept of lateral banking is why we see Nascar tracks banked, so that vehicles can maintain highs speeds while turning! Below is a diagram depicting how lateral force is produced.

If an athlete has the requisite flexibility through their ankles to ‘bank’ their surface and create more of a substantial foot-ground interaction, they will be better lateral movers. And there are examples littered throughout Joseph Tugler’s tape where he exhibits this exact kind of flexibility.

While not the most clear, keep an eye on Tugler’s left foot, it maintaining almost 100% contact with the ground while changing direction and he’s simultaneously able to achieve full extension through his left lateral sling (lateral sling being the muscle grouping responsible for lateral movement).

This kind of biomechanical analysis can seem unnecessarily granular, however I find this information illuminating when it comes to assessing how certain movement skills may translate. And in Joseph Tugler’s case, understanding his unique movement patterns informs how he’s able to make plays like the one below, where he closes out on 5-star 2024 guard Tre Johnson on an attempted drive, is able to seamlessly funnel Johnson towards the help defenders, and force Johnson to travel when he tries to spin back.

Even when Tugler isn’t able to completely stonewall quicker perimeter players, he is able to resort to his gargantuan wingspan to stay attached and place offensive players in a position of discomfort. The clip below is an instance of this playing out, Tugler is switched onto Bronny James on the perimeter, and while Bronny manages to get a step, the presence Tugler presents as a shotblocker causes Bronny to drive directly into a dig.

The Defense

It is impossible to discuss Joseph Tugler’s defensive projection without first mentioning the responsibilities of the modern big on that side of the ball. Scheme versatile big men are at a premium in the NBA, as ideally teams want big men who are able to produce without precluding their team from using any one lineup. Multiplicity is the name of the game for power forwards on both ends of the court, and defensively Tugler not only has the potential to be deployed in multiple roles without needing to be catered to with other lineup adjustments, Tugler can actually provide you flexibility at other positions by masking other deficiencies in the lineup.

The majority of Tugler’s time in EYBL was spent playing center, where Houston Hoops tasked him with playing a variety of coverages to account for inconsistent player availability. Tugler was not only able to play these coverages competently, but often excelled, and was frequently able to end possessions as evidenced by his 1.6 steals and 4.1 blocks per-40 minutes (over the course of 27 games) as tracked by Cerebro.

Even in plays where Tugler isn’t able to create an event (block or steal) he is constantly disrupting offensive players’ rhythm, forcing them into points of conflicts where they have to make decisions earlier than they’d prefer. The possession below of Tugler playing drop coverage exemplifies this form of deterrence.

Whether it be in drop coverage, or hard hedging ball screens…

Or switching onto smaller players on the perimeter…

…Tugler is a defensive force who needs to be accounted for at all times by the offense. However, in the professional ranks, I see Tugler’s best usage being as a roamer. This would see Tugler being deployed in a role where he can either utilize his length to create havoc in the gaps via deflections like in the clips below…

…or rotating over from the weakside to block shots…

….Tugler effectively serves as the bedrock of a defensive infrastructure, capable of impacting virtually any play type with his unique skillset. Notice how in all of the previous three clips Tugler blocks these shots with his left hand, despite being right hand dominant. This level of ambidexterity as a shotblocker is exceedingly rare and adds to Tugler’s potency as a defensive difference maker. Being able to block shots with his left hand also shows Tugler’s keen understanding of angles and how taking these angles closes distance between himself and the ball quicker, while also limiting the contact he makes with the offensive player.

What gives me a level of confidence in Tugler’s defensive skillset translating to higher levels is how frequently he was able to stifle some of the most highly touted members of his class. The question of whether these players warrant their current high school ranking could be debated, however they all serve as potential proxies for NBA bodies.

Whether it be Garwey Dual…

…Omaha Biliew…

…Matas Buzelis…

…Xavier Booker…

…or 7’1 2024 big man John Bol.

The list of elite high school players Tugler was able to either prevent from scoring, or deter from shooting in the first place, is considerable.

Key to Tugler’s projection as a scheme diverse big, one who is capable of detonating possessions as a help-side defender, is his ability to cover ground in a way that warps the geometry of the court. Tugler does a great job of balancing his responsibilities of covering his man while remaining cognizant of the conflicts the offense is placing his teammates in. Tugler is a player who is not only able to cover the ground necessary to compensate for breakdowns in the defense, but one who also possesses high-level pattern recognition, and can address these breakdowns before they cause a complete collapse in the defensive structure. These skills, in tandem, constitute the profile of a player who can potentially be a load-bearing structure of a defense.

Take the clip below for example, where as the opposing team runs a variation of UCLA, Tugler attempts to call out the screen and when he realizes his teammate is unable to get over it, he then switches onto and bumps the point guard (Jeremy Fears) off his path, giving his teammate enough time to recover back to his initial assignment. After this, Tugler immediately recognizes the need to switch onto the secondary side pick-and-roll action, where he’s able to flatten out the drive angle of the ballhandler, force the swing pass to Fears, stunt onto Fears’ drive, and recover back to his man in time to contest a 3-point attempt! This is an amazing example of Tugler’s defensive bandwidth and how it, in concert with his physical tools, can be weaponized to alter entire possessions.

Another instance of Tugler’s ground coverage ability, and specifically how it can allow for a team to play more aggressive defensive coverages (much like his current college team, Houston, prefers to play) can be found in the play below. His teammates are trapping the ball on the sideline and Tugler, anticipating the pass to the top of the key, sprints out towards the 3-point line while remaining focused on the ballhandler’s eyes. Tugler reads the ballhandler, manages to recover back to the dunker spot, steal the pass, and instantly parlay the turnover into an easy transition bucket with the outlet pass.

Tugler’s relentless motor makes his ground coverage even more apparent on tape, I have seldom seen players who can play as a primary rim protector creating plays in transition like in the clip below.

This level of ground coverage, combined with Tugler’s outlier length and accurate hands, make it so he has outstanding range as a defender. Plays like the clip below display this, where Tugler initially loses contain on the ballhandler and cedes a driving lane, but uses his length to stay attached to the ballhandler and block his shot at the rim.

These kind of plays are common in Tugler’s tape, as he is great at playing this kind of cat and mouse game, providing the offensive player with a false sense of security to where they feel comfortable attempting a shot at the rim which Tugler is able to alter or block. Below are a few instances of this situation playing out.

So often in the NBA context defensive ‘range’ is tantamount to how capable a defender is of altering and affecting the number of threes attempted by the opposing team. Tugler is in no way bound to solely impacting shots inside the arc and proved himself capable of making long, prudent rotations to cover for missed assignments outside the arc.

Take the play below, where the opposing team begins the action with an Iverson cut where the player opts to go under the screens to counter the defender top-locking. To account for this the cutter’s defender calls to switch. Tugler, seeing this transpire, anticipates his teammate getting beat off the dribble (which isn’t a bad assessment considering the angle #1 takes on the closeout). Tugler overhelps as a result, but is able to recover to the 3-point line when the ball is kicked out, and block the 3-point attempt.

So far we have explored Tugler’s intersection of athletic ability and defensive awareness, however he is not without his flaws on this end of the court, the most glaring of which being how foul prone Tugler is. Per Cerebro, Tugler averaged 5 fouls/40 minutes over the course of 26 tracked games.

While watching Tugler’s tape and trying to make sense of the underlying cause of his extremely high foul rate, I was brought back to times I have watched combat sports, and specifically mixed martial arts (MMA) in the past. In MMA the specific language regarding fouls, such as illegal eye pokes or strikes below the belt, is that the fighter “should always be aware and in control of their weapons”, weapons of course being the limbs they use to deliver strikes. I reference this because the majority of Tugler’s fouls aren’t a result of a lacking understanding of where he should be positioned, but a result of over-aggressiveness. Tugler’s penchant for causing turnovers comes at a cost of believing he can force turnovers from any angle no matter how much he may be positionally compromised. These gambles which result in steals like the play below:

Also frequently result in fouls like this ill-advised steal attempt:

Tugler’s over-aggression is often amplified by his greatest athletic deficiency at the moment, his deceleration, and these two paired together materialize in head-scratching fouls such as this out of control 3-point contest:

One of my favorite aspects of Tugler’s game is the physicality he plays with despite not having an overwhelming amount of mass. However, this element needs to be better trained as he’ll have inexplicable lapses in judgment which make up a non-insignificant portion of his fouls. The play below where he hip checks a baseline cutter is a perfect example of this:

Ultimately, I believe in Tugler’s defensive processing and how, in combination with his motor and physical tools, he fits the profile of a player who can be a bulwark for defenses at higher levels. Tugler certainly has to make significant improvements in technical areas of defense, such as his hand placement in drop coverage and footwork on closeouts, but I consider this low-hanging fruit in comparison to the skillset he already has. As certain defensive archetypes come in and out of favor, in my estimation a player like Tugler who can be deployed in numerous roles has the potential to retain value no matter the current defensive meta. Tugler’s not only able to make the long rotations created by subpar team defense, but by the same token, shortens rotations his teammates need to make by virtue of his physical tools and defensive workrate.

Tugler’s ability to end possessions places a strain on offensive players’ decision making process and this, even momentary, indecisiveness can throw off the timing of an entire play. So often we call offensive player’s ability to force hasty decisions ‘gravity’, and while there isn’t a universally repellant force to counteract gravity, Tugler’s defensive acumen can greatly help a defense retain its shape by limiting the scrambling situations that elite offensive players’ gravity causes.

The Offense

Joseph Tugler’s offensive projection is a much murkier conversation, and first requires a more abstract discussion of what is demanded from a modern power forward. What is so interesting to me about the modern 4-man is how there is no concrete expectations or necessary conditions for the position versus other positions on the team. Even though the game has moved further and further away from traditional positions, there is still an implicit understanding that a shooting-guard for example will bring some amount of shooting versatility to the table.

In contrast, the power forward responsibilities seem largely dictated by the center they are paired with. For instance, in certain contexts a 4 may have to stretch the floor for a paint-bound big man, while in other situations a team may need a more athletically dynamic 4 whose gravity rolling to the rim or cutting pairs well with a playmaking big. These lineup considerations are ubiquitous in high level basketball now. As front-court synergy becomes not only desired, but required, for any high performing team, the PF will be viewed as a binding agent for the rest of the lineup.

Tugler is a perfect distillation of how incongruous the demands are and, as a result, the development of big-men in youth basketball are compared to modern professional big men. In all the tape I have watched of Tugler his usage was almost exclusively that of a traditional, back to the basket, big man. This aligns with the background knowledge of Tugler’s developmental context, where he did not play on any major shoe circuit, and the public school league which he played with he was far and away the most physically dominant force. Tugler is 6’7” in shoes, a modest height for a PF, and he towers over the rest of the players in this interscholastic game for Cypress Falls High School.

When Tugler began to play high-level competition on the EYBL circuit, he saw the same kind of usage he’d been used to receiving in high school. Now, with size more representative of what Tugler would face at the next level, the results were ugly more often than not.

Tugler’s ineffectiveness in the low-post is a byproduct of his over-reliance on previously held physical advantages. Playing at lower levels Tugler was able to physically outmatch virtually any player he was matched against. However, I do not believe the low level competition is the only cause of Tugler’s lack of refinement in the low-post. Taking a more macro view of Tugler’s developmental trajectory, taking into account that he is a player who grew a substantial amount over a relatively short period of time, is key to understanding the main deficiency in Tugler’s low post footwork which is his balance. Tugler routinely loses his balance even in situations where his path is not being obstructed by other players.

I think this is an important aspect of Tugler’s athletic profile to mention because his novice footwork in the post and hapless shot attempts can be easily misconstrued for a lack of coordination, when in reality I believe Tugler has a good baseline of dexterity/fine motor skills. However, he rarely has had the chance to display them due to his usage and developmental context.

In lineups where Tugler was paired with another big man and he was provided the opportunity to faceup more frequently to the basket, or he was able to catch further away from the basket (like in transition for example), the results where fascinating.

Take the play below: Tugler makes the catch slightly above the 3-point line, is able to maintain his dribble when an opposing guard applies pressure and delivers an accurate no-look pass to the corner shooter (with his off-hand) as soon as Kwame Evans Jr. commits to help. For a player with extremely limited reps handling the ball in this capacity, Tugler routinely uses his massive hands to make unique, precise, passing deliveries. The variety of deliveries, along with how infrequently Tugler telegraphs his reads, is a rare combination for a young big.

The fact Tugler seems almost as comfortable making passes on the move, as he’s driving from the perimeter…

…as he is making reads from the middle of the floor…

…despite Tugler having drastically more experience making reads out of the latter position, is an encouraging indicator that his passing isn’t limited to a narrow application, and that his playmaking can adapt to the context.

For example in the play below, Tugler immediately gets downhill after the catch and is walled off by the defense. However, he has the court-mapping skills to recognize how imbalanced the court is, and makes the skip pass to the wing to create the longest rotation possible for the the weakside defender at the nail. While some coaches/evaluators may disapprove of Tugler making a riskier jump pass, his long levers allow him to put more velocity on the pass while maintaining accuracy.

The key to fully optimizing Tugler’s passing will be improving his ball security and expanding his repertoire as a ballhandler. While his passing is far ahead of what would typically be expected of a young big, Tugler’s comfort as a ballhandler is in its nascent stages. Any attempt to string together multiple moves usually ends in disaster for Tugler as shown in the clip below.

While I do not think it is necessary to Tugler’s viability as a PF to develop an expansive handling repertoire, it does need to get to a level where it is at least functional. And at the moment, Tugler’s lack of confidence in is handle reduces his effectiveness as a finisher because he so often has to resort to early pickup points, and doesn’t have the extreme level of vertical explosiveness to compensate. Below are instances where this limitation forces Tugler to turn ideal layup opportunities into awkward, low percentage, attempts.

While this may sound overly optimistic judging off how dismal the previous examples are, I believe players with unique physical tools such as Tugler are presented with unique solutions in skills such as ballhandling. Tugler’s hand size give him a larger margin for error when it comes to developing a functional handle where he can manipulate ball speeds. The threshold Tugler has to clear to be deemed a functional ballhandler is much lower than a smaller player; the fact he is able to win the leverage battle versus his defenders so consistently leads me to believe his handle does not need to be deceptive as much as it needs give him the time to react to different inputs from the defense on drives. Any improvements in this area will lead to his drive paths being less predetermined and Tugler’s efficiency driving to the basket, both as a playmaker and scorer, will greatly improve as a result.

Scattered throughout Tugler’s tape are plays where his impressive dexterity are on display. Tugler habitually uses his left hand to make passes and finish plays around the basket, and in my opinion, it is reasonable to expect a player whose exhibited this degree of coordination to progress to an acceptable level of ballhandling. Take the play below, Tugler catches the ball in the low post out of the pick-and-roll and quickly makes an accurate, underhand, left-handed pass to the wing. While a relatively mundane play which doesn’t result in an assist, this is far from a standard passing delivery.

The blend of tools and movement skills allow Tugler to generate deep paint touches when faced up, despite his unrefined footwork and suboptimal balance. Tugler consistently wins the leverage battle against his defender, consistently keeping his shoulder level below that of the defender, as evidenced in the clips below.

However, though I believe there to be optimism in Tugler’s growth as a driver, he is very much in the embryonic stages of development in this skill, and the record scratch moments when he does faceup and drive to the basket are prevalent.

The Shooting

Power forwards’ versatility is typically viewed through their ability to space the floor. The ‘stretch 4’ has become a relatively oversaturated archetype, in my opinion, to accommodate players who aren’t capable of scoring effectively in the paint but have at some point shown at least a cursory ability to shoot and possess shooting indicators which can be construed as revealing latent shooting potential. I say this to say I truly believe shooting ability in draft prospects, when it comes to big-men (being 4s and 5s), is too often graded on a different rubric than wing and backcourt players. And I believe the players who have seen the sharpest development trajectories in their shooting were able to grow this skill because of the value they added in other phases of the game. Granted this isn’t a quantifiable observation, however relating back to my belief in the increased churn in the league, if a frontcourt player isn’t able to quickly return value as a floor-spacer, and are deficient in other areas on top of this, the likelihood of the player being provided with developmental resources such as playing time are unlikely. This philosophy is pertinent to Joseph Tugler because his shooting outlook and potential at the moment are bleak, to say the least.

Per Cerebro Sports, Tugler shot 7.2 free-throws per/40 mins, and was an alarming 46.8% from the line. For as consistently as I’ve praised Tugler’s tools and how conducive they are to basketball performance, a +12 inch wingspan with what I’d estimate to be at least 11.5 inch width hands are major detractors from his shooting efficiency. When shooting, the shooter wants to ensure that their elbow, wrist, and fingers are on the same plane to ensure the ball rests on as stable a platform as possible to the most linear force can be put through the ball, limiting the superfluous lateral forces which can cause the shot to be misdirected. With Tugler his hands, and especially his fingers, are so long that when paired with his condor-esque wingspan they introduce many more points of failure. Point of failure being an engineering term referencing any non-redundant part of a system that, if dysfunctional, would cause the entire system to fail.

An example of this can be seen below, Tugler has what can best be described as a delayed follow-through. It is apparent he is aware of the traditional teaching point of shooting to flick your wrist completely through the shot to get adequate rotation on the ball, but is unable to execute this principle because he’s subconsciously afraid of putting too much force into the shot. This phenomenon is especially evident in the second shot in the clip.

This hitch causes Tugler’s shots to have a flat arc towards the basket. Ironing out these mechanical issues and improving Tugler’s free throw percentage to an even passable level could catalyze a significant improvement in his efficiency. Over the course of the 26 games tracked by Cerebro Sports, Tugler posted a stellar 0.58 free-throw rate (free throws per shot attempts), and his inability to capitalize on opportunities at the line resulted in a relatively underwhelming 57.5 true shooting percentage.

As oxymoronic as it sounds to be relatively optimistic about a 47% free-throw shooter’s ability to stretch the floor, Tugler’s confidence in taking threes, despite the free-throw line struggles, is encouraging to me. Tugler only shot 30.7% on 1.8 attempts/40 minutes; however the confidence I have in the rest of Tugler’s skillset translating to a higher level, paired with his willingness to take 3s when the defense gives them to him, leads me to believe shooting is an element which can eventually be incorporated into his game even if it is in a limited capacity.

Considering Tugler’s shooting profile, an obvious concern would be how could a negative spacer who doesn’t project to exclusively play center contribute to an offense? In a league where the majority of teams’ ideal lineup consists of personnel who can play 4-out 1-in, and 5-out for stretches, where does a player with limited shooting potential factor in? This is where I believe Tugler’s passing acumen and latent slashing ability come into play.

In addition to these skills, Tugler is a player who already has a good sense of timing and positioning as a play-finisher. The spatial awareness and Tugler’s minimal load-time as a leaper make him compatible with frontcourt players who are more perimeter based and/or possess more ball-skills. While this kind of frontcourt partner hasn’t been present at any level Tugler has played so far, the clips below display his potency as a play-finisher from the dunker-spot.

The Role

Harkening back to this past season’s NBA playoffs, while many were finally made aware of Nikola Jokic’s transcendent skill, and rightfully so, I believe the larger takeaway should have been how devastating the pairing of two big-men with high-level processing and finishing ability can be. The interplay between Aaron Gordon and Jokic, and the strain they placed on defenses’ decision making, was consistently made apparent. In no way am I attempting to make out Tugler to be a 1-to-1 comparison to Gordon, and of course the expectation of any player to be paired with as special a talent as Jokic is unrealistic. However, I believe Tugler’s skillset at the 4 can replicate the conflict Gordon has placed teams in during his Nuggets tenure.

Take the play below for example, Jamal Murray runs a side pick-and-roll with Jokic, and the gravity he has as a roller presents Kevin Durant with an impossible choice, either help off Gordon in the dunker spot or allow a clean look to one of the best finishers in the league. This split second of indecisiveness allows Jokic to throw an easy short roll lob.

This next play from the 2023 Finals exemplifies how a non-shooting threat (by NBA standards), can counter defenses sagging off them by sharpening their instincts as a cutter.

Tugler’s current offensive limitations will most likely see him being deployed as a small-ball center as he adapts his ball-skills to handle more power forward duties. Tugler’s already a remarkably consistent short-roll passer. Take the clip below, Tugler sees the low-man overcommit on the tag and zips in an accurate left handed pass to the corner.

While not very layered reads, Tugler executes these passes well consistently.

An often overlooked skill in frontcourt players is their ability to rebound. And while Tugler would give up size to his opponent either playing the 4 or 5, his superb second jump, length, and workrate prior to the shot being hoisted, make him a force on the boards. Tugler averaged 13.6 rebounds per 40 minutes (5.9 offensive, 7.6 defensive), and routinely beat bigger, stronger players for rebounds on the offensive glass.

The Conclusion

As we’ve dissected virtually every aspect of Joseph Tugler’s game one may be wondering how prudent it may be to project a player who is obviously far away from being the final article. Even compared to most frontcourt prospects Tugler will take a significant amount of time and require heavy developmental resources to be fully actualized as a productive NBA level player. However, I believe too often NBA teams assign prospects the ‘raw’ label as a pejorative, when in reality they should see a player from the kind of developmental context Tugler is coming from, and equate the lack of NBA relevant reps as an opportunity to paint on a blank canvas.

The draft is about making calculated risks, and a player like Tugler who has a portable skillset, with his defensive aptitude, passing feel, and relentless rebounding, should be malleable to virtually any roster. Teams would be best served realizing how conducive to long-term roster construction investing in a player before they are considered ‘ready’ is. The flexibility this allows a team moving forward, to have a player in their program who is a cost controlled, consistently appreciating asset, which can be molded with your specific team needs in mind, is invaluable. At the risk of sounding pollyannish, I am confident Tugler will only appreciate in value in the immediate future and will have a shorter learning curve not only because of his physical ability, but also the high basketball character he seemingly always displayed.

Plays like the one below, where Tugler’s team is down 16 points in the waning moments of the 4th quarter, and despite the game being out of reach, Tugler is hounding the ballhandler fullcourt. When Tugler loses attachment to the point guard, he peels off and blocks the big man’s layup attempt. These kind of effort-based plays are routine in Tugler’s film.

To briefly revisit the earlier exemplification of the Denver Nuggets, my failing to mention the space Aaron Gordon and Nikola Jokic were afforded by the lethal shooting from perimeter players like Jamal Murray, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, and Michael Porter Jr probably was considered a gross omission by many readers. However, this ties back to a central tenant of my draft philosophy: I believe NBA evaluators are relatively consistent in assessing scoring talent, however as 3-point shooting has become a ubiquitous feature of the NBA-meta, these players have become more widely available and as with any skill/product that becomes less scarce, shooting/scoring is more fungible (outliers aside of course).

Paradoxically though, perimeter scoring has seemingly become the predominant skill considered in talent acquisition, with teams willing to overlook other glaring deficiencies in a player’s game. This line of reasoning, in my opinion, has lead to a drastic underestimation in the value of players who are lower usage, but are proficient in what are usually categorized as ancillary skills. Addressing this market inefficiency, and determining which players possess unobtrusive skillsets, skillsets which are capable of impacting the game no matter where they fall in the offensive pecking order, is commendable teambuilding process.

Joseph Tugler, in my mind, is a prime example of a player who could serve as this kind of connective tissue for an NBA team. NBA personnel acknowledging the disparity in responsibilities, especially offensively, between college and professional frontcourt players should realize how beneficial professional reps would be in Tugler’s case. Utilizing professional game and practice minutes to train Tugler’s decision-making framework, on both ends of the court, could yield the best version of Joseph Tugler over time. And while the best version will almost certainly never be a conventional NBA star, it may very well be the quintessential modern frontcourt player.

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