The 2024 NBA Draft class is widely considered to be one of the weakest classes in years, bereft of a franchise talent; many NBA and draft media pundits have urged teams to trade their 2024 picks en masse in order to recoup proper value. The discourse surrounding the 2024 class reminds me of the general ambivalence towards the 2013 class, which was widely panned as being the worse of its generation. And of course that class ultimately produced franchise cornerstones in Giannis Antetokounmpo and Rudy Gobert. While there are many factors which contributed to the fall of Antetokounmpo and Gobert, the most significant may be their unconventional amateur careers compared to the majority of NBA players. The historical parallels between the 2024 and 2013 classes, and the success stories of the latter, inspired me to search for players outside the traditional major shoe company grassroots circuits. This thought process lead me to find someone who may be the most intriguing player in the entire class: Providence commit Garwey Dual.
The Basics
Garwey Dual stands 6’4.5 with a 6’10 wingspan and weighed in at a sinewy 175 pounds at the 2023 Nike Hoop Summit. Dual started his scholastic playing career in the Houston area for George Bush High School. There’s minimal information available on Dual’s early AAU career, with the next notable transition being his move to Indiana power Carmel High School. Dual saw limited playing time for a senior-laden team which boasted a 16-0 postseason record before falling in the state title game. Going into the summer of his senior year Dual only held offers from local IUPUI and UAB.
The summer of 2022 represented a major inflection point in Dual’s career, playing for George Hill All Indy, a locally based AAU team unaffiliated with the major shoe company circuits. Dual routinely impressed against the traditional grassroots powers. With a mounting buzz stemming from his AAU season and a standout performance at the Pangos All-American camp, Dual eluded the hype which would have came with blue blood offers by committing to Providence in June. Familiarizing oneself with Garwey’s path to Providence provides some clarity as to how such an intriguing NBA caliber prospect has gone unnoticed for so long.
Player Profile
Upon first viewing, what stood out to me about Dual was his build, specifically his proportions. Dual is a very ‘high hipped’ player, with extremely long arms and legs. Typically athletes with extremely long levers such as Dual are incapable of generating power quickly, whether that be vertically as a leaper or in a straight line driving to the basket. However Dual’s athleticism flies in the face of almost all convention. Instead of his physical dimensions serving as a limiting factor athletically, Duals long legs amplify his exceptional first step, as seen in the clips below.
Almost equally as impressive as Dual’s burst given his physical build is how flexible an athlete he is, and how he’s able to maintain his balance while contorting his body. As shown in the clip below, Dual can sink his hips to where his shoulder level is below that of his defender (even smaller defenders like in this clip), and gain the leverage necessary to get deep into the paint.
Throughout this article there will be mentions of Dual’s interaction with ‘points of conflict’ on drives to the basket. Points of conflict being instances where the player is able to penetrate the first line of defense, but is forced to make a quick decision based on the secondary defenders positioning. Dual’s pliability as an athletes allows him to completely deleverage the defender’s advantage at these points of conflict.
The clip above fully displays how Dual’s ability to maneuver through tight spaces and engage the backline of the defense. These unique movement patterns render Dual capable of carving open passing windows which would otherwise be unavailable. Below are a few examples from an assortment of games, where Dual’s ability to not only engage, but avert the help defender with his flexibility and variety of pick-up points.
Dual’s physical ability paired with his persistence in occupying the most valuable area of the court, the middle of the floor, makes him a tantalizing advantage creator. Now to delve deeper and explore how Dual’s skill as a primary ballhandler allows him to capitalize on these advantages.
At this point of his development, Dual is most effectively deployed as a point guard, seeing as he lacks the requisite shooting skills to draw closeouts and the off-ball instincts to function as an effective cutter. However, with the ball in his hands Dual consistently showed he could generate quality looks with or without a screen on offense. What makes this possible outside of his aforementioned physical gifts is Dual’s advanced reactive handle. As shown below, Dual is able to maintain his dribble in defender’s air space and comfortably handle the ball outside of his frame. These skills, in tandem with Dual’s stride length and initial burst out of his moves, allow him to dictate the terms of engagement with his defender.
The clip below is emblematic of the conflict Dual consistently puts his defender in. The threat his first step presents, along with the reliable hesitation dribble in his arsenal, forces Dual’s defender to yield space until they commit to forcing Dual left. Once the defender declares his intent, Dual decisively attacks his top foot and gets the finish. Much like a champion boxer, Dual is able to consistently beat his man by proactively applying pressure, getting his opponent on the backfoot, and winning the battle of positioning.
It is my theory that this is what constitutes an advanced handle, when the offensive player is consistently able to force the defender to reveal their intent and can react accordingly, hence the term ‘reactive handle’. Below are a few instances of Garwey Dual doing exactly this, using his handle to both flip his defenders hips and cut driving angles (taking the most direct path to the basket).
The Playmaking
No matter how highly you regard any player’s handle, as the level of competition increases, that player will only be granted the privilege of extended ballhandling duties if they prove capable of consistently creating for themselves and others. It is in this respect where I truly believe Garwey Dual shines the most. Per Cerebro Sports, Garwey Dual averaged 4.4 assists per-40 minutes with a pedestrian 1.3 assists-to-turnover ratio over the course of 31 tracked competitions. As valuable as data points can be, in this case I do not believe they tell the whole story. In fact, I believe these numbers belie Dual’s playmaking ability.
When it comes to facilitating, Dual possesses a keen understanding of timing. This understanding of timing is inextricably linked to his aptitude as a ballhandler. Dual uses his handle to access ‘pressure points’ of the defense, and capitalizes on this by making his passing reads as soon as the defender is forced to commit to a rotation. Dual’s patience on these reads is key, making the pass in the exact window of time where the defender commits to their decision to help amplifies the advantage provided to the recipient of the pass. This is apparent in the clips below, look how much space Dual’s teammates have after the catch.
Essential to any evaluation of a player who is projected to be a primary ballhandler is how they efficiently they are able to operate in the pick-and-roll and Dual, in a limited sample, has shown he can make consistent reads out of this action.
While the defensive acumen in these clips can definitely be questioned, knowing Dual can play with pace in the PNR and is willing to make the simple read is encouraging for a guard with such limited experience against high level competition.
An additional wrinkle of Dual’s passing ability, which leads me to be optimistic about how the skill will translate to the next level, is how manipulative of a passer he can be. Dual shows himself to be a layered thinker of the game often, who maximizes his advantages by playing to the defenders assumptions.
Take the clip below for example, Dual is operating as the ballhander in a side pick-and-roll, watch Dual and the tagger’s eyes in this situation. By looking off the roll man for a split second Dual is able to lengthen the rotation of the tagger and the roller gets a foul as a result.
While there are many instances of no-look passes taking place in situations where the offensive player already has an advantage, such as in transition, Garwey Dual’s persistence as a manipulative passer sheds light on his processing of the game.
Clips like the one above are instrumental in understanding how Dual perceives advantages. Specifically how Dual understands how misdirection as a passer can improve the degree of the advantage for his teammates. Dual not betraying any information to his defender can turn predictable actions, like the pick-and-pop clip below, into open looks.
As high as I am on Dual’s potential as a creator there are current limitations he has in this area. If there is one thing you may have noticed from these clips is all of the feeds have been with two hands. When discussing primary ballhandlers and their advantage creation ability, making one handed passes off a live-dribble can be a contributing factor to the degree of advantage being created. Another deficiency in Dual’s passing which consistently appeared on tape was his insistence on making lay-down interior feeds in traffic. These kind of ill advised passes made the bulk of Dual’s turnovers in the games I watched and I clipped a few examples below.
While this critique could be interpreted as nitpicking Dual’s creation ability, after all Dual is still generating deep paint touches on his own. However I believe these ill-advised passes to be symptomatic of a larger issue for Dual, namely his lack of strength and its relation to his finishing.
The Scoring
The discussion of Garwey Dual’s scoring is complex considering he profiles to be a player who spends a majority of the time with the ball in his hands. And in order to optimize his rim pressure and passing ability, it will be necessary for Dual to have consistent scoring counters he can rely on when he isn’t able to decisively beat his defender and get two feet inside the paint. Circling back to Dual’s reliance on high risk interior feeds on drives, I believe this is caused by his lack of strength, and indicates Dual’s lack of refinement as a scorer.
The clip below best encapsulates Dual’s current limitations as a finisher. Here Dual cleanly beats his defender off the dribble and gets inside the paint where he is pitted against 7’1 big man Dennis Evans, who in my mind is as good a proxy for NBA rim protection as you will find in high school basketball.
As shown here, Dual is a good, not great, leaper and currently incapable of absorbing contact at the rim without his shot being drastically altered. Below are a few more instances of Dual’s lack of contact balance and finishing craft preventing him from putting up credible attempts at the rim.
Strength development will obviously come with time as Dual is provided with better facilities and physically matures with age. However Dual will need to develop scoring counters inside the arc to add to his optionality on drives (notice how similar the drive plan was on each of the three previous clips). Improving his footwork in-between the three-point line and restricted area, to the point where Dual can incorporate a variety of pickup points and from there potentially build an arsenal of the touch shots necessary for any high usage NBA guard, will be key. Dual’s already shown flashes of this kind of adaptability, as shown by the clip below where he is once again pitted against Dennis Evans, but this time opts for a floater which he makes.
Dual’s floater is going to be a key counter he’ll need to rely on when facing greater rim protectors, and the comfort he has in the shot made consistent strides over the past season as shown below.
As Dual’s athletic advantage inevitably shrinks as he faces improved competition, expanding his repertoire to include these kinds of shots will be crucial to his development. So much of what separates good from great players is the self-awareness to implement moves specifically tailored to taking advantage of their unique athletic tools. Garwey Dual’s floater, paired with his 8’8 standing reach, would be an extremely useful tool to combat the formidable backlines he’ll face at the next level.
The Shooting
With every passing cycle the evaluation of guard prospects is seemingly reduced to how their jumpshot is projected to translate to the next level, and while this is probably Garwey Dual’s most glaring deficiency at the moment, examining his tape chronologically reveals much reason for optimism.
First of all, before diving into Dual’s shooting numbers and mechanics, I think it is worth mentioning how reluctant Dual is to take threes at all. As evidenced by the clips below Dual rarely seizes the opportunity to take even open threes and can kill advantages because of it.
Per Cerebro Sports, over the course of 31 games Garwey Dual shot 41% from three, however, this came on only 2.6 attempts per-40 minutes. While Dual did shoot an encouraging 80% from the free throw line on 4.7 attempts per-40, the mechanics and reticence towards shooting reveal a more complex shooting projection. In order to have a clearer view of Dual’s shooting development, and the trajectory it has been on over the past year, we will need first need to examine his mechanics beginning with his AAU tape.
The pull-up three above is the only instance of a Dual three I was able to slow down, and while it isn’t an ideal angle to judge mechanics we can gather a few basic insights from the clip. Working from the ground up, Dual’s shooting base consists of a dominant foot stagger and an extremely pronounced knee valgus. While there are a variety of opinions on foot positioning and its effects on jump shot accuracy, findings on this matter have largely been inconclusive (see http://thesportjournal.org/article/the-effect-of-foot-placement-on-the-jump-shot-accuracy-of-ncaa-division-i-basketball-players/). The greater detriment to Dual’s jumper in my opinion is definitely his exaggerated knee valgus on the takeoff. Knee “valgus” occurs when the knee moves inward, toward the midline of the body, no longer in a straight line between the hip and ankle. The image below portrays the difference between proper knee alignment and knee valgus.
I want to refrain from being dogmatic about shooting form, many of the best shooters in the NBA today shoot with some degree of knee valgus, however with Dual specifically I believe the extremity of his valgus is detrimental to his shot.
Knee Valgus, like most inefficient movements, are a result of the body overcorrecting for weakness in another area. My working theory is that Dual’s knee valgus is caused by tight and/or weak gluteus medius, the muscle running lateral to the gluteus maximus more commonly known as our butt. Dual is currently incapable of properly recruiting this muscle when he tries to generate power for his jumpshot, and as a result, overcompensates with an extreme knee valgus. What makes this movement pattern detrimental to Dual’s shot and not other players, is the disruption of energy transfer which occurs in Dual’s shot as a result of the knee valgus.
What I mean by ‘disruption of energy transfer’ is the inability to achieve triple-extension while shooting. Triple extension is the simultaneous extension of the hip, ankle, and knees to generate power. This concept in the context of shooting is best illustrated by the image of Steph Curry shooting below.
See how if you were to draw a line from the back of Steph Curry’s heels to the top of his head the line would be almost perfectly straight. Compare this to the images of Garwey Dual shooting below.
See how Dual’s torso is leaning forward, as if he is lurching towards the basket as he shoots. In my mind this is caused by an over-reliance in his upper body to generate power. Another tell that supports this claim is how negative Dual’s shooting elbow is as he transitions from his gather into the shot. Ideal upper body shooting mechanics require the player to provide as stable a platform for the ball to lie on before the shooter reaches their launch point, this concept is typically taught through the ‘triple-90’ principle meaning the player’s shooting wrist and elbow should be as close to 90 degrees as possible.
Even with a less clear camera angle it is apparent Dual’s elbow is at an angle significantly lower than 90 degrees. This drastic of a negative angle takes away from the straight line force generated through the ball and introduces unnecessary motion into the shot.
Another problem area of Dual’s shot from his AAU tape is his self organization after the catch. As previously stated, repeatability is integral to effective shooting mechanics and over the course of the grassroots season Dual’s form was erratic in large part because of inconsistent gathers into his shot. The following clip exemplifies this.
Breaking this down into a few still shots, Dual combines two traits least conducive to a consistent shot, a narrow unstable base as well as a low-dip gather from the opposite hip, away from his body.
These glaring inconsistencies in tandem with Dual’s reluctance to take threes in general paint the picture of a player who, to this point, has an extremely limited number of reps shooting in a game setting. This falls in line with what we know about Dual’s playing career so far. Not only did Dual miss out on essentially an entire year of interscholastic play his junior season at Carmel, but prior to his senior year there isn’t much evidence he had ever cut his teeth against high level competition on a regular basis.
Up to this point the Garwey Dual shooting projection has for the most part been bleak, however Dual’s final interscholastic season playing for Southern California Academy has provided much reason for optimism in my eyes. While Dual’s value system (value system being a players hierarchy of scoring preferences) as a scorer is definitely still geared towards attacking the basket, there has undoubtedly been a concerted effort to expand his game as a shooter and the newfound comfort is apparent. Take this spot-up three for example, Dual takes this in rhythm, with a much more compact release and cleaner energy transfer from his lower body.
Along with this pull-up three in semi-transition, I find Dual’s willingness to explore different scoring avenues very encouraging.
In an attempt to avoid reducing a players shooting profile to just their long range attempts, I want to briefly discuss the growth Dual’s exhibited as a pullup shooter in the midrange. Making strides as a scorer in these areas will be inextricably linked to Dual’s efficiency as a creator, and while the results are mixed at the moment, the process and ambition to pressure the defense as a midrange scorer has definitely improved.
Compare the two clips below, the first being an AAU game from the summer and an the latter from one of Dual’s games in the winter for SCA. Both plays are side pick-and-rolls to his right hand where Dual’s growth in getting to his pull-up is undeniable.
Dual still has a ways to go with regard to his consistency in these play types however, as shown below there are still ugly misses and it’ll undoubtedly take time to meet the increasingly high threshold of effective pullup shooting a primary ballhandler needs to meet in order to warrant high usage.
The Defense
The current NBA meta-game, especially in high leverage games such as the playoffs, is designed to find and repeatedly exploit the weakest link of the opposing teams defense. While this may seem like pedantic observation, and definitely has been an aspect of teams game planning in the past, the persistence teams have when it comes to putting defensively limited players in compromising positions has never been more prevalent. Typically these weak links have resided in teams’ backcourt, and the liability guards present on the defensive end has been reflected in recent draft history. Breaking down the past 10 drafts into two five-year increments, from 2014-2018 there were 16 players picked in the lottery under 6’5. Over the past five drafts from 2019-2023, there were only 9 players under 6’5 drafted in the same range. While there are obviously other contributing factors, there is always a degree of randomness to what kind of players compose each class, and I would not want to infer that the players who were picked in lieu of the sub 6’5 guards were all resounding successes, there’s been an obvious shift in what kind of players the NBA has prioritized. Relating this back to Garwey Dual, for as interesting as I find Dual’s offensive profile with his ability to frequent the paint and playmake for others, what was initially the most compelling part of his game was his defensive aptitude.
As previously discussed, Dual has an extremely unique intersection of length and movement skills. As effective as his stride length was in consistently creating space between himself and his defender, Dual is just as capable of using this length to quickly close space on defense. Take the example below, Dual aggressively helps at the elbow as the weakside defender, and is still able to recover all the way to the three-point line and block the opposing player’s shot.
Plays like these are littered throughout Dual’s tape. His combination of ground coverage ability, length, dexterity, and motor considering the offensive workload he carries, make him a consistent event creator on the defensive end (event creation being any blocks or steals).
At the point of attack Dual menaces ballhandlers with his length and extremely accurate hands. Over the course of 31 logged games by Cerebro Sports, Dual averaged 3.1 steals per-40 minutes. What is striking about Dual’s steals is the variety of methods he goes about forcing these turnovers. Dual can either rip ballhandlers as shown below…
Or Dual can pair his athletic ability with a keen sense of anticipation to disrupt passing lanes
Along with his impressive steal numbers, Dual also averaged 1.3 Blocks per-40. This number adds to the profile of a player who could potentially see a variety of assignments at the next level. A perimeter player who has displayed the ability to provide supplementary rim protection is exceedingly rare and keeping consistent with the theme of Dual’s steals, he is able to deter shots while being deployed in a variety of roles either as a low-man in the half-court.
Or guarding fellow guards on the perimeter…
Dual’s penchant for constantly creating havoc as a defender along with his physical profile lead me to believe he could be the caliber of defender who is able to produce independent of context, however a player with his range and dexterity would be a wonder in a gap-defense scheme where Dual’s aforementioned tools can be fully weaponized.
Despite all the praise I have heaped upon Dual’s defensive potential there are definitely areas of improvement which will be interesting to track during his stay as Providence. Dual’s typically uses a sub optimal defensive stance where his upper-body lies far forward of his center of gravity, hindering his lateral quickness and leaving him unable to contain his man on occasion.
The frequency of these ‘blowbys’ led me to circle back to an earlier discussed deficiency in Dual’s jumpshot, namely the weakness in his hips and glutes. I believe Dual’s inconsistencies in his lateral recovery, while partly due to his technique, are also caused by the limited power he is able to generate through his hips and glutes when sliding his feet. Strengthening these muscle groups could prevent instances like the clips below by bolstering his lateral acceleration, which at this point is the primary limiting factor to Dual’s defensive potency.
Final Thoughts and Role Projection
For as much time has been spent on Garwey Dual’s game at the moment and its development, I would be remiss to not mention the influence his future developmental context could play in his projection. Dual will be entering a veteran laden team and be paired in the backcourt with another potential draftee in Devin Carter. Carter and Dual’s chemistry will be interesting to watch develop as their playstyles are extremely different despite their strengths and weaknesses paralleling each other. Carter is a similarly talented defender to Dual, posting a tremendous 3.3% steal rate and 3.4% block rate for a 6-3 guard. However, Carter like Dual is a limited shooter at the moment having shot only 29% from three on a mediocre 117 attempts. Carter though does have experience playing off the ball and plays with an unobtrusive style which should allow Dual to play his preferred role of primary ballhandler. As far as forecasting Dual’s NBA role and his one-and-done potential, I do believe Dual is a prime candidate to spend only one season in college. The scarcity of perimeter players with his skillset should make Dual a notable draft candidate, however it is likely he will not have a ‘traditional’ statistical profile for a one-and-done candidate. What leads me to believe this is the state of flux Providence’s roster and team overall has been in, with the recent addition of Coach Kim English along with a bevy of former George Mason players, such as Josh Oduro, who will demand usage.
Ultimately what makes me so confident in Garwey Dual’s NBA future is his intersection of advantage creation, defensive playmaking, and willingness to develop his game by thorough experimentation. Watching his tape chronologically and getting insight into how steep the development curve has been for Dual leaves me optimistic that the interstitial aspects of his game such as off the dribble shooting will continue to progress at a consistent rate. His current lack of refinement in these areas may keep him from primary usage early on, but the bandwidth he plays with leads me to believe he can be an effective connective piece who punches gaps off the catch and continues advantages created by his teammates. As I’d touched on in the beginning of the article the 2024 draft class has been widely, and in my opinion, unfairly panned by the wider media for lacking compelling prospects and at a bare minimum I believe Garwey Dual proves this to be far from the truth.
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