Prompt: who is your favorite sleeper in the 2024 NBA draft?
Ahmed: Isaiah Crawford
Perhaps no draft class of the past decade has taken shape later in its cycle than 2024, and in a class defined by uncertainty it only makes sense for some of its prospects to take circuitous routes to the NBA. There may not be a player in the class who has taken a more winding road into the league than 6’6” fifth-year senior wing Isaiah Crawford. Typically there is some combination of three factors which result in a prospect exhausting their collegiate eligibility prior to joining the professional ranks. Maybe the player joined a veteran laden, high achieving team, where minutes crucial to their development are difficult to come by. The prospect in question may have been from a less heralded school where playing lower competition required a lengthier resume of production to be seriously considered a NBA caliber player. Or lastly, injuries prevent them from playing to the point where development is disrupted and they are forced to return to school.
In Crawford’s case the latter two factors are primarily responsible for his protracted NCAA career. Having suffered devastating ACL injuries in two consecutive seasons (his true sophomore and junior years), and playing the entirety of his career in Conference USA, which only recently gained a modicum of respect from FAU’s Final Four appearance this past season. While Crawford’s injury history may have him omitted from a few teams’ draft boards, the consistent production in spite of both practice and game time lost to recovery is eye-catching.
Crawford’s appeal is his protean skillset on both ends of the floor. Offensively, Crawford has spent most of the season as the primary creator in the half-court, ranking 11th in the country in isolations as a percentage of his teams possessions. However, in past years Crawford has been cast in a more of a complementary role, where he spaced the floor and gained comfort attacking closeouts as his long-range shooting became a more consistent threat (Crawford is currently 40% from 3 on 275 attempts in his career). Crawford was even deployed as a small-ball center this past year when his mobility was compromised by the recency of his knee injury.
In all these roles Crawford has not only produced, but thrived, when forced to adapt. This display of role flexibility bodes well for Crawford’s value in the league, where non-star wings are increasingly defined by their ability to meld around whatever star talent resides on their roster. Crawford will most likely not be asked to shoulder a large creation burden, but his ability to capitalize on mismatches created and attack tilted defenses, in tandem with the stellar shooting indicators (44% on 70 off-the-dribble midrange jumpers, 39.7% on catch-and-shoot 3s in 2024), has been the recipe for numerous wings who arrived with little fanfare to carve out meaningful roles.
For as enticing as Crawford’s offense is, defense could very well be his ticket to making a NBA roster. Similar to the offense, Crawford has played a variety of roles defensively and consistently produced wherever he has been deployed, Crawford has posted stellar steal and block rates over his career (3.1% and 3.6% respectively) while simultaneously limiting fouling (only 3.3 fouls/40). The paltry foul rate to Crawford’s defensive impact numbers underscore his quick processing ability on this end of the floor. Crawford isn’t one to blindly gamble on the defensive end, instead opting for calculated risks where he utilizes the entirety of his massive wingspan to alter shots at the rim and encroach on ballhandler’s live dribbles as they attempt to create space. Despite being 6’6” I fully believe Crawford can function as a weak-side rim protector, aided by a 7’0” wingspan, and has the range necessary to complement a deep-drop big.
All in all it is rare to find wings with as well-rounded a skillset as Crawford, and with the premium placed on the position around the league, it is my belief Crawford’s skillset warrants first round draft consideration despite the risk which comes with such a disconcerting injury history.
Avinash: DaRon Holmes II
DaRon Holmes is putting up one of the most well-rounded, dominant seasons in recent memory, and he’s getting late second round buzz. Here’s why I find that baffling.
Let’s get some things out of the way: DaRon Holmes is somewhat undersized for his position (6’10 in shoes), has middling length (7’0 WS), he is a bit old (August 2002 bday makes him ~senior aged), and he plays in a mid-major conference (although the A10 is arguably just as good as some P5 conferences). These are all valid criticisms, and should certainly be considered in ascertaining his upside. And yet, after watching DaRon for three years, I have two contentions that I will qualify below: 1) DaRon Holmes is putting up one of the greatest rim scoring seasons ever. 2) DaRon Holmes might be the most well rounded big man ever.
Starting with the first contention: from 2008 to 2023, there have been 37 instances where a player dunked 75 dunks or more. Five players have managed to do this twice: Udoka Azubuike, Tacko Fall, Obi Toppin, Chimezie Metu, and of course DaRon Holmes. Currently, DaRon is on pace to be the first player to do this 3 times! This baseline of interior dominance is important, but so is the span of his dominance. Upperclassmen are often maligned for only dominating once they reach a certain age threshold, thereby making their dominance seemingly untranslatable. Well, DaRon has been dunking to oblivion since his freshman season. His freshman season was actually a quasi-statistical doppelganger to Jalen Duren, and he was one of 7 players to dunk 80 times as a freshman (the other 6 were all lottery picks: AD, Ayton, Bagley, Obi, Drummond, and Bam. Dunks are my favorite way of ascertaining functional interior dominance: it’s the play type with the highest conversion percentage, yet it also has the highest barrier to consistent entry.
There’s so many more ways I could reiterate Holmes’ interior goodness. He’s scoring a whooping 80% at the rim on very high volume (will likely hit 200 rim attempts) and he’s getting to the line at an extremely high rate (70 FTR on the season). This combination of dunks/rim %/ FTR is virtually unmatched. For context, there have only been 3 seasons where a player has even reached 65 FTR and 80 dunks: Bam, Mason Plumlee, and Tacko Fall, with DaRon and Edey on pace to crush these numbers this year.
I’ve just spit out a cacophony of numbers to demonstrate DaRon’s interior dominance, some of which may admittedly be redundant. He also happens to be the rare disciplined rim protector, with both a strong rim protection record and foul rate reminiscent of a guard (career 7.6% block and 2.3 fouls per 50). But the main point is that DaRon doesn’t just exhibit above average interior dominance: by all accounts, he is one of the most dominant rim forces we have ever seen. There are some concerns about translatability, sure, but these are all relative. Even adjusting for length, means of winning, and conference strength, DaRon should at least be a solid bet to be a well-above-average rim force in the league.
However, it would be incredibly reductive to call DaRon an interior scoring merchant. He is also one of the best big man passers I have ever seen. He can catch the ball on the perimeter, force his way to the rim off a dribble drive and sling a one handed pass to the weak side for an open 3. He can get to a post-up and time pocket passes on the inside to cutters. He can bring the ball up the court and hit a tween as he scans the floor, and consistently leverages his rim gravity to make connective reads out of the post. This type of ball handling skill and passing acumen is quite rare for a 6’10 big, and it manifests in his 19% assist rate. Defenders truly have to pick their poison with DaRon – sit back and watch your center get absolutely cooked by DaRon inside the post en route to another dunk, or help off your man too hard and watch as DaRon wastes no time finding the open man.
I don’t really care too much about perimeter shooting numbers for prospects, but DaRon is putting up 5 3PA/100 and 37% 3P, while shooting 69% on FTs. Even if I’m not totally sold that he’s going to be a pick and pop force in his prime a la Kevin Love, this is a pretty significant data point. This year, there’s only 18 players 6’10 or taller who even meet 3 3PA/100, 35% 3P, and 65% FT. To me, this is just a testament to DaRon’s perimeter skill and fluidity, and this perimeter volume is already operating as a functional outlet for him to create advantages off closeouts.
It’s pretty clear that DaRon is an impressive passer and shooter – how many big men are able to put up 19% assist and 5 3PA/100 simultaneously? It’s a rare skill set with intuitive translatability, as it’s easy to imagine the utility of a post hub who can pick and pop or even run some delay actions from the jump. At the same time, there’s only been a couple players who have even approached DaRon’s statistical rate of interior dominance, and even fewer who can dominate the rim at both ends.
Here’s the bottom line: there has NEVER been a prospect who approaches DaRon’s goodness at the intersection of feel, shooting, and interior scoring. One of the best statistical rim scorers also happens to be an awesome passer and bonafide shooter, all while protecting the rim at a high level? This is absolutely insane territory, and I’m running out of ways to emphasize this. Since 2008, there have only been 3 players with 50 dunks, 15% assist, and literally just 1 3PA/100: Zion, Obi, and Josh Jackson. None of them were even close to DaRon’s block rate or even 3PA/100 (Zion was the closest at 3.9 3PA/100). For reference, DaRon is on pace to pulverize these thresholds; he’s on pace for 80 dunks, 19% assist, and 5 3PA/100.
I don’t need to cook up another bart query to exemplify the extraordinary nature of this skillset. DaRon Holmes has the most fascinating skill integration for a big that I’ve ever seen, and he does it while being elite to generational in all the facets you want to see for a traditional big man. Oftentimes, when we look for unicorns among bigs, we fail to account for whether or not they are good at traditional big man things. So many scrawny bigs have failed because their movement aesthetics weren’t adequately functional to overcome their physical deficiencies. And now, we have one of the most physically dominant big men in the barttorvik.com era entering the draft, and this player also happens to be able to dribble, shoot and pass at a high level relative to position? And he’s projected to go undrafted by several outlets? By all accounts, his integration of skills in conjunction with his baseline of sheer dominance is incredibly rare and offers a tantalizing combination of high floor and untapped ceiling. This is the type of bet I want my front office making.
Roshan: Jaylon Tyson
The NBA has had a massive talent explosion in the last couple of years, where players with size are coming in more skilled than ever. One of the reasons is the proliferation of wings or bigs that can dribble, pass and shoot. In a class where this player is more of a rarity, Jaylon Tyson has a case for being underrated.
Jaylon Tyson is a 6’7” junior tasked with running the primary ballhandling duties for the California Golden Bears, lighting the Pac-12 up with impressive shotmaking, crafty ball-handling, and reactive passing. In 27 games, 35% of his offensive possessions come from being the pick-and-roll ballhandler where he’s been slicing up defenses with his good first step and leveraging his touch from all three levels of the floor.
He’s been shooting 59% at the rim on 188 attempts (70% unassisted), 42% on 108 midrange attempts (93% unassisted), and 36% on three-point attempts (48% unassisted). If you still don’t believe he has touch, he’s also shooting 77% from the charity stripe for his career (177 attempts), 43% on floaters and hooks this year, and 45% on off-the-dribble jumpers inside the arc this year. Tyson can get to these shots in a lot of creative ways where he’s able to use change of direction, deceleration, and different stride lengths to freeze defenders or cause them to flip their hips. He’s then able to use quickness in short spaces to create space and hunt a shot.
Tyson’s handle is the vehicle for all of his crucial skills on the offensive end, as he has excellent ball control. This enables him to pick the ball up at gather points where primary and help defenders can not dig at it effectively, further lending itself to live dribble passes.
His passing volume mostly contains single-level reads like finding the roller out of pick-and-roll or making connective passes to the next rotational player, but where he shines is how quickly he’s processing these decisions, often locating the help defense. Sometimes the speed of his deliveries can be improved but I can see a pathway to growth in this area because he has manipulated defenses at times with no-look passes. With improved hand strength, he could potentially do this with more volume off of a live dribble.
Tyson is definitely an NBA athlete, dunking 15 times in the halfcourt (3 of which came off of his drives to the rim) with good load time off of two feet. There isn’t a wingspan that I could find but I would say it ranges somewhere between +3 and +5 inches compared to his height. On the defensive end, this length and explosion allow him to stifle smaller ball-handlers. His lateral movement allows him to stay with ball handlers and then hound them with his reach, empowering his ability to create events which can be seen in his 1.7 block percentage and 2.0 steal percentage.
His problem on the defensive end is screen navigation, where he can get caught across screens and has to recover back into the play. Most of this is him not doing his work early with technique and getting skinny, specifically taking larger lateral strides before the opposing big can get positioned with his screen. Currently, he can recover into plays using his burst and length but this will be tougher to do in the NBA with the amount of ground that has to be covered.
I believe this issue is further amplified due to his usage on the offensive end (30% usage) which will persist less in the NBA in a scaled-down role. In the NBA, Tyson will have the chance to play off of better advantage creators, where he can capitalize on tilted defenses off-the-catch. Having to create fewer possessions at the next level, there should be an uptick in three-point efficiency, similar to his sophomore season at Texas Tech where more of his threes were assisted as he shot 40% on 107 attempts. To get even more granular, he shot 43% on catch-and-shoot shots his sophomore year. With a reduced offensive load, it will let him expend more on the defensive end and do his work early with technique.
The skills and athletic traits he has as a primary should translate well to an off-ball role in increased NBA spacing, using burst and explosion to capitalize on advantages, and incorporating his touch and creative handle to create counters when the defense recovers.
These tantalizing skills at prototypical wing size should give the team that drafts Tyson a dynamic scoring wing with the potential to funnel ballhandlers as a defender in the NBA. That sounds like the description of a player who could end up being a starting-caliber player and will be 21.5 years old on draft night; yet, he remains outside of the top 20 on most boards and mocks throughout mainstream media. In my opinion, investing heavily in a player of that caliber is usually justified, particularly in a draft class where there’s a significant shortage of this player type.
Matt: Jonathan Mogbo
Jonathan Mogbo is one of the more unique development cases of the 21st century. Not recruited out of high school as a 6’4’’ guard, he is now 6’9’’ and a big/forward. He started at Independence Community College, transferred to junior college Northeastern Oklahoma A&M, transferred again to low-major Missouri State, and then a third time to the mid-major San Francisco. He has guided himself up the development curve, step-by-step.
And it seems to have worked. Jonathan Mogbo is not just playing well at this higher competition level, but dominating. His 10.5 Box Plus-Minus is #13 in the country. As you might guess from the growth spurt, Mogbo mixes in guard skills with that of a big. That has provided flexibility of value to San Francisco’s roster (+20 net rating when on compared to +2 when off) that would continue with another leap in competition.
Jonathan Mogbo can pass – really pass – the fulcrum of the Dons’ offense. They often run Delay with Mogbo the trigger point, providing endless handoffs and hitting cutters or shooters in stride. He assists on one of every four made buckets by his teammates, in the top 10 for assist rate among NCAA bigs.
But what really makes Mogbo stand out is his ability as a roller or cutter. Mogbo is a fantastic leaper, quick off the ground and with ridiculous hang time, coupled with an above 7-foot wingspan and large hands. His catch radius is phenomenal, but as much as that, his footwork stands out. Mogbo is capable of dropping into a roll or starting his cut from an oblique angle while simultaneously chopping his feet, preparing for any pass regardless of its accuracy. It’s through this talent that he is barely second to Zach Edey in number of dunks this season, with a shocking three per game. Not bad for a former point guard.
The limitation is the outside shooting, as Mogbo has only attempted 38 threes over his four college seasons and at a 31% make rate, but is still shooting a solid 69% from the line and 32% in midrange. That’s enough to convince me there’s some chance of Mogbo succeeding as a low-end catch and shoot three point threat. But even if not, his handle stands out as strong for a big, capable of making moves off the dribble (but not too many) to then leverage his strength to make a path to the rim where he shoots 75% (and nearly half of his rim makes self-created). He is mostly dominant inside, but there are sparks of upside outside of the restricted area. The feel of a guard is there.
Mogbo is excellent on defense, too, and also due to his guard-like agility and opportunism. He gets a steal on 3.3% of opponent possession and a block just as often, only one of nine starters in the NCAA to do so (see: Isaiah Crawford later on). His long wingspan is weaponized by lightning fast reaction time, closing off passing lanes when least expected. His mobility combined with strength allows him to defend on the perimeter and inside alike. One small slight is he can take a beat to find his positioning on the court, a significant concern for picking up NBA schemes (especially ability to play drop as sole big). This, however, is heavily mediated by his quick recovery time and aforementioned physical tools to keep him in a play. When he’s near, he’s a threat.
Jonathan Mogbo provides a bevy of skills no one else in the 2024 draft class has in this combination. Despite being a senior, Mogbo’s adaptability to increasing competition in the middle of a growth spurt suggests continued room for improvement. With deadly weapons in the form of interior athleticism and big-man ball skills, Mogbo is a tough matchup regardless of competition. That’s why I believe he deserves to go in the top 20 of the 2024 NBA draft. Instead, he is absent from all major media mocks/boards entirely.
Josh: David Jones
Through his four seasons in college basketball, David Jones has progressively developed into one of the best wings in the country. There were flashes of future stardom in his first two years at DePaul, with him averaging 14.5 points per game as a sophomore for the Blue Demons. Jones then transferred up to St. Johns, where his numbers remained very similar to his sophomore year at DePaul. After coach Rick Pitino accepted the head coaching position at St. John’s, Jones decided to transfer up again to Memphis, where he is now on All-American watchlists while averaging a career high 21.7 points per game on 60.7% true shooting percentage.
With the Tigers, David Jones’ rate of spot-up possessions has risen substantially, and so has his efficiency in this area. Jones is currently averaging a whopping 1.24 points per possession on spot-up looks, and he is at 1.21 points per possession on spot-up drives. He is currently at 1.35 points per possession on 40 right drives and 1.06 points per possession on 35 left drives. Jones’ burst from a standstill is quite impressive, as he is able to beat closeout defenders with ease. His jab and go often leaves defenders in the dust, as the threat of his downhill speed leads to defenders often biting on his initial move. When he jabs left and goes right, he is often able to get to his pull-up, where he is able to align his shoulder with the rim to knock down the shot. He also has an incredibly pronounced pump fake, leading to many fly-bys from unsuspecting defenders.
When Jones beats his initial defender, he is adept at weaving his way through help using a variety of different stride types. There are many possessions where he takes an elongated last step towards the rim to either get by one help defender or to split two, and these steps often open up easy finishes at the basket. While he is at the basket, Jones flashes exceptional body control, as he is able to consistently absorb contact and finish through it despite the frequent difficulty of these attempts. He pairs this body control with his explosive one foot leaping, as he is able to generate tons of vertical pop and hangtime to throw down highlight dunks if given a runway. Half court finishing will be a potential swing skill for Jones, as he is currently hovering at 51% at the rim in the halfcourt. I am a firm believer in this mark improving over time, as he consistently showcases great touch around the rim and always displays the aforementioned elite body control.
Stepping back to his spot-up proficiency, Jones is currently shooting a blistering 47% on 79 total spot-up 3s putting him at 1.41 points per possession on these shots. Among every single player in D1 basketball, David Jones is currently scoring the fifth most points per game on spot-up possessions in the entire country despite only being 46th in total spot-up possessions. Jones has shown the ability to hit shots off of a variety of footwork patterns, movements, and is just as accurate on off-dribble jumpers. Shooting progression is almost never linear, and Jones’ development over the last couple years has been magnificent. Between his sophomore and junior seasons, Jones jumped from 69% on free throws to a strong 79%, and he currently hovers at 80% this year on nearly three times the volume. His jump as a three point shooter really kicked in this year, as he has gone from 29% as a junior to 39% as a senior. Jones has pristine mechanics on his jumper, and he is excellent at rotating his body in air to align his shot with the rim. This is part of what makes him so deadly as a pull-up shooter, as he is comfortable shooting off of a variety of dribble patterns. Jones has also showcased comfort in shooting from NBA range and even beyond, and he can convert on these deep looks both off the catch and off the dribble. Defenders have to stay honest on his drive, so any type of walk down will typically give Jones either a driving lane or enough daylight to pull-up from 3.
Another potential swing skill for Jones will be his playmaking, more specifically limiting turnovers. I personally believe that Jones is a significantly better playmaker than his current numbers would indicate, as he has shown the ability to make high level reads off of drives. Jones typically avoids telegraphing his passes, as his eye fakes and general passing deception periodically appear on tape. These positive playmaking indicators along with his processing of help defenders on drives leads me to believe in his feel for the game and processing speed, which bodes very well for his playmaking progression in the future. The main inconsistency in his playmaking has been his passing accuracy, however I think most of this is due to the difficulty of some of the reads he makes. In a scaled down role in the NBA, Jones will have the opportunity to make first and second layer reads off of drives, and I believe that he is more than capable of making nearly every pass he would be tasked with executing at this level.
Defensively, Jones uses his elite quickness and strong instincts to jump passing lanes very frequently. His steal rate of 3.7 ranks 30th in the country among players playing at least 70% of their team’s minutes, and his ability to create deflections and transition offense opportunities absolutely pops on tape. Jones is a bit of a gambler on defense, as he looks to jump these passes very frequently. However, when Jones is out of position due to a missed jump, he is still able to swiftly get back into the play due to his change of direction capabilities. When Jones focuses on sitting down and walling off drives, he is excellent at mirroring opponents’ movements and cutting off any lanes to the basket. Jones’ body control once again shows up when he is forced to navigate screens, as he is able to absorb the contact of the screen and quickly get over them to get back into the play. Jones’ short area quickness makes him an excellent closeout defender, as he is able to execute x-outs and recover out to perimeter players much quicker than the average wing player. Finally, Jones is an excellent rebounder for a wing, as he crashes the glass to grab 2.4 offensive rebounds and 5.2 defensive rebounds per game.
Oftentimes wings with similar skill sets to Jones come in as below average defenders and in turn struggle to stick in the league despite their offensive tools. However, Jones combines his strong offensive tools with great defensive instincts and a solid feel for the game. The foundation that Jones has cannot be overlooked, and the sheer amount of translatable traits that he provides has led to me believing that he deserves to be in first round talks.
AJ – Riley Minix
A 5th-year transfer from NAIA school Southeastern, Riley Minix has continued his dominance in his first season at the D1 level. He leads Morehead State comfortably in points, rebounds, true shooting percentage, and combined steals + blocks a game. It’s worth noting that while he’s playing at a mid-major school he’s not just padding stats on a bad team – Morehead State is currently in the 1st place in the OVC and ranks top 40 nationally (out of 362 schools) in both offensive and defensive rating with Minix leading the way on both ends.
While Minix’s game is built around overall versatility, his primary standout skill right now is inside the arc scoring. At 6’7” with an extremely strong frame he’s one of the most dominant 2pt scorers in college basketball this season, shooting 64.8% on all twos thanks to a staggering combination of efficiency at the rim (77%, 19 dunks in 27 games) and from mid-range (50%). His ability to shoot it from three is a little more of a question as he’s shooting a fairly mediocre 33% from beyond the arc this year, but there’s other indicators that point to him being a better shooter than that. He’s shooting nearly 85% from the FT line this year, takes a solid volume of 3’s at 8.1 3PA/100 possessions, and shot 40.8% from 3pt at the NAIA level on over 550+ attempts. When you factor in this additional context, he definitely has a stronger shooting projection than this year’s raw 3pt% suggests.
Minix is also capable of affecting a game in several different ways. His strength and size make him a high level rebounder for a forward, and he’s currently in the midst of a 9-game streak with double digits rebounds. He’s also the leader of one of the better defenses in college basketball, with Morehead State’s defense improving 8.6 points per 100 possessions when Minix is on the floor compared to off. He’s not the quickest or fastest player, but knows where to be and his combination of strength and good hands let him be effective when he is in the right position. He’s also capable as a passer, not a high level facilitator by any means but knows how to keep the ball moving and capitalize on the extra attention he gets from defenses.
While he’s done just about everything at a high level for Morehead State, Minix still has some question marks on both ends. For as good of a scorer around the rim as he’s been this year, a lot of that production comes in ways (rim rolls, post seals, putbacks, etc.) that will be a lot harder to replicate consistently at the next level when you’re 6’7” with solid-not-great athletic tools for NBA standards. Minix will also have to deal with role translation on the defensive end as well, as playing the forward position defensively in the NBA requires a completely different skillset than playing it at the mid-major level. With his burly frame being much more equipped to defend from a set position using strength than to try to stick with guys through screens/traffic on the move, this could be a challenge for him.
Overall, even with questions around competition level, agility, and role/skillset translation, it’s hard not to see the intrigue with Riley Minix. He checks multiple boxes we look for in NBA role players, possessing good positional size and the ability to score effectively from multiple spots on the floor while still being able to impact the game in non-scoring areas. It will no doubt be a tough jump for Minix to go from NAIA to Mid-Major CBB to NBA in a short span, but his track record of producing at a high level everywhere he goes will give him a chance to stick at any level.
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