I struggled with the title of this piece, the third of three pieces on how I frame prospect analysis. This final installment will discuss a player’s athleticism, well, physical athleticism (not cognitive), but with an eye to dominance. I use the term flex because that is how dominant athleticism comes about. Rather than define the term up front, elusive as it is, tape demonstrates it in a way easier than words. But the essence is to assert one’s will over the opponent through force but also the body’s elastic application of force. Here we have four examples of out-flexing, where I will analyze how they create massive margins with unique athletic traits.
We will cover four aspects of athletic display in basketball: offensive rim dominance, offensive midrange dominance, offensive perimeter dominance and defensive dominance. Each of our four examples demonstrate their “flex” in vastly different ways, but to the same result: getting or preventing buckets in a way that will persist as competition rises dramatically.
We’ll define the term athletic dominance as we go.
Rim Dominance: Jonathan Mogbo, San Francisco
Rims are not safe around Jonathan Mogbo. The guard-turned-big is only third in the NCAA to Zach Edey and Ryan Kalkbrenner in dunks, despite being seven and four inches shorter, respectively. Mid-major teams have elite athletes, too.
The number one most important tool for Mogbo is his catch radius. Catch radius defines how big your target is as a roller, and is constructed of several factors: max and standing verticals, vertical load time, wingspan, hand size. Mogbo scores highly on all of these. But catch radius is also about timing, and being physically able to change your location at a moment’s notice. That is a cognitive aspect, namely one’s reaction time, but a physical one too.
Can you change your short strides into long ones, and vice-versa? Mogbo can. He is capable of skying a foot or more above the rim to crash upon the rim. But he can also sneak in quicker oops, reminiscent of a middle hitter in volleyball. He can catch bad passes with his range but also very good ones with precision and timing.
A framework around – “outflexing” or “physical dominance” – whatever term you prefer, lies in how your body relates to others. Namely, how your body can physically withstand abrupt change but also resist a counterforce. Mogbo, in his true versatile fashion, is capable of both. Despite his bulky, wide-shouldered frame, Mogbo is capable of getting low to the ground and into an opponent’s body. Then, uprighting himself with great balance to sling a pass or attack the rim.
With alley oops he’s skyrocketing himself upward, but getting low-to-high near the basket is a major advantage, too.
Finally, the withstanding force. Mogbo has quick feet, which, again, are capable of chopping in an instant. This combined with his wide frame and great balance mean he is difficult to blow by, especially good at absorbing drives, hitting a roller or boxing out.
Essentially, Mogbo is capable of surpassing final walls of defense with his catch radius and sneaking through with his timing. His agility, foot speed and balance allow him to be specific in his movements; his strength allows him to withstand drives while driving himself into an opponent’s chest. Despite being only 6’9”, Mogbo is the premiere vertical threat in his class (with respect to Edey and Holmes) by blending in all these aspects.
Midrange Dominance: Isaiah Collier, USC
Just, and likely more important, than shooting a high percentage in the midrange is the ability to get there in the first place. Often the first item young ballhandlers struggle with at Summer League or the pre-season is getting past that first line of defense. As guards rise through competition levels, the ground coverage and ground resistance capabilities of their median point of attack defender rise exponentially.
Enter Isaiah Collier.
If Zay wanted to, he could have a picnic, take a nap, read a book in the paint. He is as comfortable breaking down a first line of defense as anyone in college basketball. Not built like a freshman, Collier can withstand a hard hand-check once, twice, however many times is needed to either power his way with a drive or power his way with a post up.
No size of defender is capable of withstanding Collier’s force, routinely pushing bigs backwards into the paint with choppy but strong strides. Because of this, no door is truly closed for Collier.
We see again the importance of being able to get low in an instant before popping back up at will. Collier is capable of doing this with short, quick steps to better position his heavy frame, with rare lower body stability to withstand the shifting of weight.
Collier weaponizes his paint touches well, particularly improving in efficiency as the season went on. He has the second best two point shooting percentage of any high major freshman with 200+ two point attempts. In fact, of all the players since 2008 who are categorized as Scoring Guards in the barttorvik.com database, Collier shoots the best on twos. He is also sixth in assist percentage. These inside the arc numbers combined with his passing is similar, at least statistically, to De’Aaron Fox and D’Angelo Russell’s NCAA profiles.
Collier is highly creative, which combines perfectly with his paint pressure. He is capable of getting to the “flex” spots of the floor that most bend the defense, and then is inventive in finding the best thing to do with the ball. When he uses his burst directly into a high speed pass, it may lead to turnovers here and there but the reward is often wide open layups.
This creativity is a big reason why Collier can get to finishing angles inside the arc, in spite of being a limited vertical athlete.
He can simply burst by his opponent, back him down, take elongated strides, create space with an arm bar, by backpedaling, or spinning into his body, or a hip check.
When he uses his acceleration in combination with appropriate application of strength, Collier is nearly impossible to contain. That’s what we’re looking for in midrange dominance, and easy bets say Collier will do just fine getting into his strength areas at the NBA level, too.
Perimeter Dominance: Rob Dillingham, Kentucky
Rob Dillingham has taken 128 threes and made 45% of them. He has taken 98 deep twos and made 44% of them. But it’s not the efficiency that stands out, but rather how Dillingham is getting his looks. It looks like he is playing on ice skates.
Dillingham’s movement ability is impressive. Not just bursty, not just quick, but also agile, nimble, shifty. When most players would be disoriented playing with such pace and skittishness, these traits are automatic for the Kentucky freshman. With space to operate, Dillingham is the best in class at hunting for perimeter openings.
His athleticism permits him to create horizontal space: with a wide cross or tween, he can shift his weight seamlessly to cover more distance than the opponent expects out of the listed 6’3” Dillingham. His body swings violently back and forth, as Rob utilizes his true superpower: his balance.
He uses this balance (in combination, again with a tight handle) to toy with opponents, exemplifying the hunting part of out-flexing.
His athleticism also allows him to create negative space: decelerating at full speed, Dillingham is able to go from low to the ground to upright in an instant. Yet again, the balance. Not just to be able to stop on a dime, but to then *reload* for your shot, requires moving in three distinct directions (sprint forward -> decelerate to a halt -> leap forward into a shot) in a second.
The important part of Dillingham’s game is not just that he has the arsenal, but is clever in deploying it. That functionality appears automatic as he predicts where his opponent will stick their top foot, already attacking as they do.
I have harped on the importance of changing your body shape from low to high, small to big and vice-versa, but Dillingham adds dimensionality to that. When he’s in his perimeter playground, Dillingham can change from slow to fast, low to high, high to low, left to right, front to back, accelerating fast, decelerating on a dime, all of that. While closer to the basket dominance requires more power, Dillingham is both sleek and stable in hunting perimeter openings.
One additional, significant benefit to that comes in his foul-drawing. While his free throw rate is still low for a given prospect, in consideration of his predilection for distance shooting and small stature, even a 0.25 free throw rate is enough to provide another dimension of value. The aesthetics stand out again, as does the method. When Dillingham attacks, he attacks. Weaponizing his deceleration but also shiftiness in general, Dillingham is able to get into a bigger opponent’s body with ease. The physical toll is likely a lot to manage over a full NBA season, but it is an important part of the arsenal. His ability to seek out physicality keeps defenders honest as they try to blanket his perimeter space.
Defensive Dominance: Ryan Dunn, UVA
Take everything we’ve learned about offensive dominance. How sleek while bursty movement creates force. Now, try to negate it – all of it – in a single player. That player looks like Ryan Dunn.
The first important quality is stickiness. How much can you stay glued to the hip of a perimeter creator without fouling? Opponents shoot a remarkably low 22% from two on drives when guarded by Ryan Dunn. He suffocates with long strides, chopping feet to then react in an instant, sliding in lockstep with the offensive player.
It’s partially his high feel overlapping here, as his instantaneous reaction speed allows him to gamble in ways that still keep him in the play. It would be bad technique, but Dunn recovers better than anyone. His 10.6% block rate, despite being only 6’8”, speaks for itself.
His wingspan also helps to close gaps quickly. He springs into action with his 7’1” length which matches well with his burst and second jump speed. The court shrinks for Dunn, where he is a beat away from making his presence felt at any given point. This is the ideal for a defensive forward: blocking off space with length; covering space with speed.
He can withstand force, too. His lower body maintains its springiness while also being extremely durable, a rare combination. Dunn was built to prevent buckets all over the court.
On any given possession, UVA trusts Dunn to play like an aggressive strong safety, hedging, icing, blitzing, trapping, monitoring whatever gaps. Dunn has done it all as he patrols the court. Some may saw this is a negative – NBA players shouldn’t gamble with abandon like this. But that is what Dunn has been asked to do, and he performs it magnificently. We know what happens when you ramp up his activity, and it’s only good things. Despite being top 5 in the NCAA in block rate and top 50 in steal rate, Dunn only fouls three times every forty minutes. In fact, no other high major player in the barttorvik.com database has improved upon his combination of steals, blocks and foul rate, with only Nerlens Noel coming close.
Putting it all together, Dunn stops rim dominance with his length, quick first/second/third leaps and his ability to withstand force. He cuts off drives preventing access to the midrange, while also blocking off passing lanes that would create easy looks. On the perimeter he is able to stick with guards with timely sliding. His long lower legs propel him back and forth while also staying on balance after dramatic movements over a distance. He is nearly the perfect defensive wing, capable of stopping actions from any angle. The offense may be nearly nonexistent, but there are few better defensive prospects than Ryan Dunn.
Tags:
Related Podcasts
No items foundRelated Articles
