It took a while, but Devin Carter is finally receiving the draft buzz he deserves. After spending much of the season ranked on the fringes, public perception has warmed up to the idea of Carter as a serious prospect. ESPN currently places him as the #17 overall player in this class, lofty praise for a three-year college player who has already turned 22. But while most everyone views Carter as a first-round caliber prospect at this point, I believe that the consensus is still underrating him.
Carter was an intriguing prospect in the Big East last year, mainly due to his athletic juice and tenacious guard defense. His offensive game was rough around the edges, as he only shot 29.9% from deep and 42% on non-dunk two-pointers, but a guard with his length, motor, and screen navigation seemed like a solid rotational bet. Fast forward to 2024, where Carter posted an 11.4 BPM, put up 19.8 points per game on 59.8 TS%, and established himself as one of the best offensive players in the conference. How did Carter make such a great leap? And how can this newfound offensive production translate to the next level?
Carter is an elite functional athlete. How many 6’3” guards can climb the ladder for reverse alley-oops, sour in for putbacks, and elevate with ease off cuts? No high major player under 6’4” had more dunks this year (26) and his 0.89 dunks/40 minutes is somewhere between high flyers like Ja Morant/Zach Lavine (0.93) and Dennis Smith Jr. (0.79) in their pre-draft seasons.
Carter has fantastic burst, capable of blowing by his man off the bounce for easy lay-ups. He averaged around 5.5 rim attempts per game this season. But where Carter has shown immense growth is with his patience. He doesn’t strictly win with blow-by-speed. Providence frequently utilized him as a pick-roll-handler and ran him off curls and handoffs. He does a good job coming out of actions and getting to his spots with pace manipulation. Once he gets inside, Carter uses his length to his full advantage, extending over outreaching contests for finishes. He loves to stop and work with his pivot foot, getting to his turnaround or stepping to the rim. Per Battorvik, he shot 65.2% on 181 rim attempts.
With his improved pacing, Carter’s passing has leaped. While still a score-first player, he looked much more comfortable waiting for plays to develop and finding lay-down windows. He upped his assist rate from 14.3% last year to 23.3% this year. There are times when he misses reads or doesn’t see a helper and forces the issue. Carter’s awareness of recognizing digs and gap help needs to improve at the next level. Regardless, his downhill style lends itself to creating open windows, which he usually capitalizes upon.
Shooting is the other major area of growth for Carter. Last season, he shot 33.3% on 69 catch-and-shoot three-point attempts. This season he took 127 catch-and-shoot threes and nailed 40.2% of them. His raw three-point percentage increased from 29.9% to 37.7%. The question is whether or not Carter’s leap is a fluke.
After watching and hand-sorting all of his catch-and-shoot threes this season, I found that 54 of his attempts came off of movement, while 73 of his attempts were stationary. Many of these movement looks came with a high degree of difficulty – sprinting off screens and firing from way behind the line. On stationary attempts, Carter shot 42.4% (31/73) versus 37.0% (20/54) in motion. Note that this is imperfect hand-tracked data from yours truly, but my main point is that Carter took a lot of difficult shots and was still pretty efficient. His 3-point efficiency could rise even higher with a tamer catch-and-shoot diet. That’s not to say he shouldn’t be empowered to shoot off movement at the next level. Carter has the self-organization skills to make difficult shots. It’s just that some of the stuff he was hoisting up this year was absolutely bananas.
Carter also shot 34.0% on dribble 94 off-the-dribble threes this year, using his deceleration ability to create space for himself. I expect him to pull it versus unders pretty early in his career.
His release looks a bit funky with a low set point, but the volume and versatility have me tentatively buying the shot. Carter is much more comfortable letting it fly, upping his 3PA/100 every year he’s been in college (5.8 in Freshman year, 6.5 in Sophomore year, 11.2!!! in Junior Year). This is someone who is undoubtedly confident shooting a basketball.
Will Carter run a pro offense? Most likely not. But that doesn’t mean his offensive growth and usage spike are meaningless. The NBA isn’t made up strictly of creators and non-creators. High-level complimentary guards must be able to create to some degree and capitalize against a tilted defense. There’s a strong chance that Carter is a potent enough shooter to demand closeouts, which makes his offensive pitch all the more appealing.
But it’s the defensive end of the floor where Carter will make his money. There were moments this season when he floated around, likely a side effect of his hefty offensive burden. But the vast majority of the time, Carter is locked in and suffocating. He’s a pest on-the-ball with strong, quick hands. With a 2.8% block rate, he’s a shot-swatting machine for a Guard. He routinely blocks jumpers on closeouts and is a deterring presence at the rim. There could be real tertiary rim-protection equity here with his vertical pop off two feet, length, and activity. Carter is exceptional at navigating ball screens, agile enough to stay glued to his man through picks, and boasting the recovery tools to impact shots from behind.
Even at 6’3”, I think that Carter can guard some wings in a pinch. He has a strong base, preventing him from getting moved by larger-bodied offensive players, and his near 6’9” wingspan makes him functionally larger than his listed height. He held up well on switches this year, maintaining his ground against physicality and using his length to contest.
The obvious drawback here is that Carter is old, having already turned 22 years old. But as has been well-documented, plenty of older prospects have been severely underdrafted. A quick checklist for evaluating multi-year college prospects…
Year-to-Year Improvement
If a player spends multiple years on campus, it’s vital to look for legitimate areas of improvement. Growth isn’t linear, but if a prospect is the same player they were as a Freshman after two years of school, the sell for further development beyond college becomes trickier. Desmond Bane is a player that comes to mind in this category, a sharpshooter who made strides as a ball-handler and passer throughout his time at TCU. As a senior, Bane nearly doubled his assist rate from the previous season (26.0% vs. 13.6%).
Vince Williams Jr. is another example – a guy who went 12/55 from three his first two seasons at VCU and ended his career jacking up 10.1 three-point attempts/100 and drilling at a 38.7% clip.
Production
Many of the best NBA role players were legitimate stars in the college ranks. Josh Hart and Derrick White were both 18+ PPG scorers in their pre-draft seasons. Production matters – an older college player should be able to put up numbers and dominate against college-level competition. Max Strus and Payton Pritchard each averaged over 20 PPG at DePaul and Oregon as Seniors.
One player who I recently undervalued was Jaime Jaquez. I struggled to see how he would produce at the NBA level without maintaining his usage at UCLA. However, I ignored the most important thing about Jaquez’s game: he is good at basketball. Players that are uber-impactful in college are always a good bet. Jaquez has settled nicely into a lower-usage role in Miami, where he made an immediate impact for a playoff team.
Immediate Go-To Skill(s)
Especially for older prospects, for which teams have less patience, a player needs to have something that keeps them on the floor immediately. Even players on the more raw side of the spectrum must give teams a reason to play them. This is something that should pop off the screen. Sam Hauser could shoot, giving him the in-game reps to develop into a formidable defensive player. Caruso and Herb Jones played their hearts out on defense, empowering teams to invest time into developing their shots.
NBA Athleticism and Tools
The downfall of many. There is a baseline of athleticism that every NBA player needs to hit. Those who are small, slow, and weak become liabilities on both ends of the floor. Even guys who aren’t typically known for their “athleticism” hit meaningful benchmarks in college. Derrick White had 142 rim attempts and Christian Braun had 27 dunks.
Carter fits each of these criteria with ease. He grew as a shooter and ball-handler and produced in a big conference. He’s a day-one havoc creator on defense whose athleticism pops off the screen. I think there’s a path for Carter to become a true star-impact rotation piece at the next level – someone who could easily wind up one of the top few players in this class.
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