A 6’7 wing out of France, Saint-Quentin’s Melvin Ajinca has a chance to be one of several French prospects to get drafted in the first round in recent years. Ajinca has been on the radar for a while now, but really established himself as an NBA prospect during France’s 2023 u19 FIBA run. Ajinca was the 2nd leading scorer in the tournament, averaging 19.3 PPG on scorching 53/49/83 splits while nearly leading France to the gold medal. He followed this up with a solid season for Saint-Quentin as they transitioned to France’s top league, LNB Pro-A. While Ajinca has some pretty stark strengths and weaknesses that I’ll get into, I believe he ultimately has the potential to be the type of role player every good team covets, making him one of the most intriguing wing prospects in the 2024 draft class.
The main selling point for Ajinca offensively is versatile and tough shot making for someone with true wing size. His 3pt% has fluctuated across different leagues/events in the last couple of years, but overall Synergy Sports has him at near 38% from 3pt in all games dating back to 2022 (for both France’s youth FIBA teams and Saint-Quentin), and it’s obvious that he’s a big time shot maker when you watch him play. Ajinca has a lefty stroke with a little bit of funkiness in his lower body, but it’s a shot he’s clearly very confident in. Most importantly he’s comfortable getting his jumper off in all types of situations, and has a very high level of shot versatility for a younger wing prospect. He’s showcased the ability to hit nearly every type of shot from the perimeter, from movement shots off-ball to tough pull-up jumpers.
While Ajinca does take too many tough jumpers right now, the ability to make those shots is a very valuable skill to have if he can fine tune his shot selection. We see countless examples in the NBA of role players losing value in the playoffs because they lose confidence in their jumper or struggle to get their shot vs. length or off movement, and those aren’t things I see Ajinca struggling with. He’s extremely confident in his shot and isn’t afraid to let it fly in any circumstance, and has the size/range/off-platform shooting ability to get his jumper off comfortably from nearly anywhere on the court. It’s much easier to get a wildly confident but talented shot maker to clean up his shot selection than it is to turn a hesitant/limited shooter into a more confident/improved one.
Again, balancing the amount of tough shots he takes is going to be important for him, but from a skill set perspective having the ability to make these difficult shots when needed is exactly what you’re looking for from a wing shooter.
Of course as valuable as tough shotmaking is, a big part of being a shooter is capitalizing on the clean looks generated for you as well – and Ajinca is a sniper when left open. He’s someone defenses can’t afford to forget about, and has an incredible track record on unguarded jumpers. Across all events and leagues dating back to 2022, Ajinca is shooting a ridiculous 50% (88-176) on open C&S jumpers (via Synergy). Obviously percentages on open shots are generally going to be much higher for any player, but Ajinca’s ability to make defenses pay when left open is as good as any player in the 2024 draft.
While I do believe in Ajinca being a good enough shotmaker to carry his offensive value, it is important to understand some of the weaknesses he has on that end of the court. He has a shaky handle which limits him as an on-ball player, and he doesn’t often create for teammates. The lack of handle plays a part in the amount of tough shots he takes as well, as he’s not someone that can consistently create separation off the bounce and a lot of his self created shot attempts end up being contested jumpers. Even when he has an advantage to play off of, Ajinca currently isn’t someone you can rely on to sift through layers of traffic or make advanced reads as a connective passer. He also can be a bit erratic as a decision maker and can look out of control at times. These flaws represent the biggest worry many have with Ajinca’s translation to the next level, as the threshold of ball skills for NBA role players has risen a ton in recent years.
With that being said Ajinca does show some really nice flashes when he keeps things simple, and one of the most underrated aspects of his game is his standstill first step quickness/overall burst. While he doesn’t have the handle to take advantage of these tools much off a live dribble, he’s shown the ability to consistently blow by the first level of defense when he attacks aggressively off the catch or out of triple threat. Once he gets a head of steam going downhill in space, his athletic tools take over from there and it generally leads to something productive. He’ll need to add more nuance to his closeout attacks and drives as he progresses in his development, but in the meantime the ability to slash in a straight line effectively is still valuable. This is overall an area where his athleticism aids him a lot and gives him an easier pathway to success in comparison to a majority of off-ball shooter types on the wing.
And while Ajinca is pretty limited as a passer some of his best flashes have come off of dribble handoff sets or quick reads off the catch, which bodes well for his NBA role as long as he can increase the consistency.
I wouldn’t bet on Ajinca ever being a dangerous on-ball creator in the NBA unless he makes real strides as a handler, but if he can hone in on perfecting the simple stuff (straight line drives off the catch, making basic passing reads quickly out of DHO sets or when he has an advantage) by utilizing his burst and the threat of his shot, that’s likely enough to make him a useful offensive piece in a rotation role.
On the defensive side of the ball, there’s a lot to like. Ajinca plays with a ton of competitiveness as an on-ball defender, as you can tell he takes pride in taking on tough matchups and not getting scored on. He has a really good blend of athletic gifts too, standing 6’7-6’8 with a very strong NBA-ready frame that holds up against contact, but he’s not bulked up to the point where it negatively affects his movement – he changes directions incredibly well for a bigger wing and can mirror against smaller ball handlers with ease.
He can get a little jumpy sometimes and bite on fakes, which is something a lot of young defenders struggle with and he’ll have to work on. But even on the possessions where he does give up half a step initially, Ajinca is very good at turning and chasing to recover and has the strength to reroute drivers once he’s back in position. All of this in conjunction makes it incredibly hard to actually get clean blow bys on him.
And while some high level perimeter defenders can be vulnerable to power based creation, this isn’t the case with Ajinca. His frame absorbs contact really well while staying on balance, and a lot of drivers just bounce off his chest when driving into him. He might not have the bulk to guard some of the truly elite strength based creators (Luka, LeBron, Zion etc.), but he’s already strong enough to bump with a vast majority of NBA perimeter players. Saint-Quinten, the French team Ajinca plays for, regularly has trusted him to guard good players 1-3, and I’d expect that to translate against NBA competition due to his combination of size, motor, and change of direction movement ability.
Away from the ball, Ajinca is solid but mostly unspectacular. He doesn’t usually make flashy plays but he’s generally trustworthy from a positioning standpoint and understands where to be. As a low man he plays aware and has the size and strength to make effective tags on cutters and rim rollers, but he doesn’t offer much as a rim protector on the weak side. Ajinca does have a tendency to over help a bit at times, creating long closeouts for him to get back to his man, but that’s a fairly easy thing to fix. He also has a high motor and is someone who will make hustle plays for loose balls and get back in transition.
The main concern with Ajinca on the defensive end is the lack of length. It’s been rumored that he has a negative wingspan, and that shows up in his film. He’s frequently in good position and able to cut off an opponent’s initial move, but he struggles at times to get meaningful contests off against jumpers and can be prone to getting beat by good shot making even when he’s in position. You can also see this show up in his screen navigation, where he’s generally flexible enough to get around screens but sometimes lacks the length to stay attached. These are relatively minor things and not something that negates everything else he does well on the defensive end, but it does cap his ceiling to a degree and will limit just how effective he can be guarding the true star creators and shot makers of the NBA.
Ultimately Ajinca’s combination of shotmaking, defensive capability, and athletic traits make him someone with a relatively straightforward pathway to being a valuable rotation player in the NBA, with the potential to be more if he ever makes meaningful improvements as a ball handler. He also fits into an archetype that’s very valuable to have in the playoffs if he does pan out, due to his ability to get his shot off in a variety of ways at his size while being reliable defensively.
Like most prospects he is a bit context dependent on where he lands. He’ll have a leg up on other incoming rookies in the fact that he should be ready from a physicality and defensive standpoint very quickly, but it’s a little more unclear offensively. In a situation where he’s on a good team with a set offensive hierarchy I can see him being an early contributor on his rookie contract. On the flip side it might take longer for things to click for him if he lands on a team with an unorganized structure that feeds into some of his questionable shot selection habits without creating easy looks and advantages for him to play off of.
There’s certainly players in this draft who have a higher ceiling in terms of on-ball creation or top end defensive impact, but Ajinca has a real chance to be a useful player on both ends of the court as an athletic 6’7 wing – which makes him a clear top-20 player and one of the most undervalued prospects in the 2024 NBA draft in my view.
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