Last season, NBA scouts regularly made their way to the small town of Vechta, Lower Saxony, to observe the young, big man. Johann Grünloh, still a student at the time and in his first BBL year, was an important part of the 6th best defense in the league (https://x.com/veilchenfeuer/status/1789723580818698270/photo/1) and immediately one of the better rim protectors in the league.
In addition, Grünloh played a few games for the second team of Rasta Vechta and in the JBBL (highest youth division in germany) playoffs to fulfill the dream of a German championship with his team. This season, he will focus exclusively on the professional team and has graduated from school. With Germany, he won the bronze medal at the U18 European Championship in 2023 and was the best shot blocker of the tournament with 3.9 blocks per game.
Offensive Analysis:
Synergy Play Types Grünloh for Vechta, Season 23/24
Grünloh had a rather small offensive role last season, posting an offensive usage of just above 13%. Vechta mainly uses him as a screener and diver or in handoff situations where he can work his way into a deep position under the basket in the flow of the offense and is a big factor as an offensive rebounder. He uses swim moves to create space for himself and regularly uses Theiss/Gortat screens to clear the way to the basket for his teammates. Grünloh is currently not a really physical screener, but rolls strongly towards the basket. In some interviews, he already has talked about the fact that he sees the greatest potential for improvement in his physique and gaining strength, aside from him working on becoming a better shooter.
When he rolls to the basket, he has a good feel for rolling deep to the rim and always offers himself for passes. I’m not sure if it’s system-related, but the Vechta’s ball handlers find him a little too rarely despite good positioning and potential passing angles. If Grünloh gets the ball after rolling, he regularly shows his vision and ability to read the defense and exploit rotations with quick passes. His vertical spacing overall is limited, Grünloh is tall, but does not have outstanding length or vertical leap. However, if there is some space, he can roll to the basket with momentum and finish above the rim.
Here are some great examples of him using the Duncan special (otherwise known as Theis seal, or just paint seal). Multiple things happen here. For once, Grünloh is able to create clean driving lanes for his ball handlers, which often results in easy layup attempts. Second, If there is an offensive rebounding opportunity, Johann is already in great position to grab the ball and reset the play or put it back into the rim.
OREB
Vechta uses Grünloh rolling deep to get great position for offensive rebounds. As seen in the Synergy playtypes, a lot of his offensive usage stems from offensive rebounds, which most typically are extensions of his screen and roll actions.
The catch plus immediate kickout could be more of a learned pattern than a quick read. I’ve seen him using this exact pass from time to time because it’s typically the corner shooter who’s open in those situations. But the inside out passing looked intriguing, especially since Grünloh isn’t a high level finisher at this stage (52.9% layup FG% last season). The total rim finishing numbers looked way more decent last season, with 66.9% FG% on rim finishes per Synergy. Overall, we can see his limitations, but the numbers aren’t concerning in my point of view.
Post usage has dropped significantly for Grünloh at the professional level. This is where you can particularly see that the physical adjustment is still difficult for him, especially in this area, and that he still has to rely too much on finesse finishes at the moment. At the youth level, he was able to make damage here, especially with hooks over his left shoulder, and showed interesting flashes as a passer in these situations. For now, however, the post game is not a factor in his game outside of mismatch situations after offensive rebounds or switches.
His shot could have somewhat hidden potential. He currently takes the three-pointer in small volume (17.9% 3PAr), but hits about 31% of them. This season, he is shooting with more confidence and doesn’t hesitate to let it fly when open. However, we are talking about a minuscule sample of about 100 three-point attempts over his career so far. The current trajectory of development is still encouraging.
Shooting Clips: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yG7EmqwZMjA&ab_channel=GatheringIntel
Defensive Analysis:
Vechta changes defensive coverages multiple times per game, depending on matchups and course of play. Johann got exposed to playing nearly every coverage in the book and really didn’t look out of place one bit in any of them. This exposure helps him to further sharpen his role versatility and understanding of the defensive side of basketball. His strongest role at the moment is playing as a drop big and defending at screen level.
The baseline level, especially as a drop defender, is pretty impressive keeping in mind his age and the competition level. He is very mature, rarely bites on fakes or overplays and is a real threat as a rim protector, posting a BLK% of 5.44% in his first BBL season. To put this into perspective, an aging Serge Ibaka was at a 6.86% BLK% for Bayern Munich in similar minutes played. Aside from his blockrate, his 1.18% STL% shows a complete picture from a statistical viewpoint which shows a good level of defensive production. The single best defensive skill at the moment is probably his verticality, where he just limits vertical space with great timing and incredible displays of hand-eye coordination.
The Elephant in the Room: Margin of error
Even though Grünloh is already one of the better rim protectors of the German BBL at a young age, the margin of error for him is quite small in this context. The baseline of defensive awareness, motor, and consistency at his young age is remarkable. Listed at 6-11 and 220lbs, Johann has decent physical measurements. We have no official wingspan number, but from watching the tape it looks like it’s slightly positive at most. Functionally, I have questions about his length (which he can’t improve) and his ability to take contact (which he can improve). He’s not the most physical guy in the world, but I don’t feel like he doesn’t like contact, he’s just not strong enough for the moment. Long story short, we have the baseline of a potential good rim protector, with clear physical limitations to improve upon. I don’t want to be too nitpicky here, but the role as a primary rim protector is the most valuable defensive position in basketball.
The slip is always hard to defend without help from the weak side, but Grünloh somehow blocked or at least contested the dunk attempt. The overall process is really intriguing to see from a young big man. Having the spatial awareness to know in an instant where the ball, opponent, and rim is and to be able to really contest the dunk is captivating to watch.
Different play, same situation for Grünloh (I really like how Bonn lifted the weak side guy to take away eventual weak side help to mix it up). This time, he gets on the poster. This shows how small the margin of error on this type of play is for him. Grünloh, in general, makes no business decisions and doesn’t care to get dunked on from time to time, which is a really positive trait.
Sometimes, offense just beats defense. But this could be a bit of foreshadowing seeing him against higher level competition – whether it’s Euroleague or NBA. Darius McGhee (the ball handler in this clip) is a menace to defend, but just 5-9, 180lbs and overall a below average finisher at the rim. Not something that pops up regularly on the tape, but for sure to monitor going forward.
As a backline defender, Grünloh overall showed a good feel for timed rotations. You can see the small margin of error again on display, as Grünloh isn’t quick, long, or explosive enough to make rotations and contests consistently.
Norris Agbakoko is one of the more devastating vertical spacers of the BBL. Coming up to screen level in pick and roll against dynamic vertical spacers currently looks like a bad idea most of the time for him. He has to be more locked in here, pressuring the ball handler or recognizing the hard roll to the basket.
I would like Grünloh to move a bit better, especially opening his hips to quickly turn and recover in those situations. It’s unlikely he’ll be able to improve to a point where he would be able to defend at least tall NBA wings who are handling the ball at a decent level.
Concluding Thoughts:
Although the margin of error on defense for Grünloh might be slim, Grünloh has already established himself as one of the most promising big man prospects Europe currently has to offer. I trust in the physical development eventually catching up with his already good baseline level of defensive feel to mitigate most of the mentioned improvement points to become a clearly positive player on that end.
On offense, he’ll probably be limited to a role as a pure play finisher with various outcomes. Grünloh is already really solid in a lot of things, but improving his inside finishing should be the main priority for him to unlock the other parts of his offensive skill set. With improved roll gravity, he’ll get more and better passing opportunities.
Because of his versatility, I can see Grünloh as someone who doesn’t need a narrow context to develop and someone who possesses quite a high floor if he makes the required steps. There is a chance his defense never really translates because he’s just too short and/or not developing enough as an athlete to make up his current weaknesses. But I’m always willing to bet on someone who is both really productive at a young age and has a good baseline level of feel on both ends of the floor, and especially on defense.
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