For our most recent mock draft, featuring written explanations for each pick, go here.

1. Cooper Flagg, Duke

Do-it-all wing with premium skill and athleticism

2. Dylan Harper, Rutgers

Bruising driving guard and potent scorer

3. Collin Murray-Boyles, South Carolina

Elite playmaking forward on both sides of the ball

4. VJ Edgecombe, Baylor

Explosive scoring guard and lockdown defender

5. Khaman Maluach, Duke

Towering young big with upside as a play finisher and rim protector

6. Derik Queen, Maryland

Creative big-bodied drive threat who can pass

7. Jeremiah Fears, Oklahoma

Young lead guard with dribble, pass, shoot upside

8. Ace Bailey, Rutgers

Versatile shooting wing with dynamic athleticism

9. Tre Johnson, Texas

Tough shotmaker all over the court

10. Jase Richardson, Michigan State

Three-level scoring guard with quick processing

11. Kasparas Jakucionis, Illinois

Pull-up maestro with passing creativity

12. Kon Knueppel, Duke

Three-point sniper with shooting versatility and P&R playmaking chops

13. Asa Newell, Georgia

Versatile defender, glass-crashing post-up threat developing three point shot

14. Noa Essengue, ULM

Sinewy rim attacker with budding ball skills and defensive versatility

15. Thomas Sorber, Georgetown

Tough freshman PF with strong feel for the game

16. Noah Penda, Le Mans

Menacing wing defender and offensive connector

17. Ben Saraf, ULM

Best passer in class as a game managing point guard and scorer

18. Labaron Philon, Alabama

Gadgety, versatile, productive guard every team could use

19. Miles Byrd, San Diego State

Stocks machine with shooting potential

20. Nolan Traore, Saint-Quentin

Quick first-step point guard who is a willing shooter and active defender

21. Bennett Stirtz, Drake

Potentially underrated lead guard up-transfer from Division II

22. Nique Clifford, Colorado State

Fluid-moving upperclassman who does a little of everything

23. Kam Jones, Marquette

Paint touch machine, three-level scorer who can pass

24. Rasheer Fleming, Saint Joseph’s

Big wing who can shoot with a 7’5” wingspan

25. Danny Wolf, Michigan

Unique ball-handling point center with quick processing skills

26. Johni Broome, Auburn

Versatile playmaking forward as one of best NCAA players in the country

27. Liam McNeeley, Connecticut

Three-point threat who attacks closeouts looking to finish strong

28. Carter Bryant, Arizona

Talented freshman wing providing a punch off the bench

29. Anthony Robinson II, Missouri

Point-of-attack demon with some ball skills

30. Ryan Kalkbrenner, Creighton

Big man upperclassman who dominates the paint on both ends

31. Tahaad Pettiford, Auburn

Dribble-pass-shoot quick small guard

32. Will Riley, Illinois

Under-developed young wing shooter and passer

33. Yaxel Lendeborg, UAB

Elbow/post hub with a well-rounded driving game and plus passing

34. JT Toppin, Texas Tech

High motor, high producing rim attacker

35. Alex Condon, Florida

Sharp-passing sophomore big who can grease an offense and get stocks

36. Adou Thiero, Arkansas

Physical slasher who creates events on defense

37. Egor Demin, BYU

Elite passer with inconsistent play against top competition

38. Darrion Williams, Texas Tech

Skilled upperclassman who can shoot and pass from the wing

39. Joshua Jefferson, Iowa State

Physical defender with some connector chops as a big wing

40. Flory Bidunga, Kansas

Undersized but hyper-athletic rangy big

41. Walter Clayton Jr.

High volume three point shooter who can do some guard things

42. Boogie Fland, Arkansas

Game managing shooter and passer

43. Alex Karaban, Connecticut

Elite shooter and wing defender, national champion

44. Hugo Gonzalez, Real Madrid

Toolsy high motor player with versatility

45. Dailyn Swain, Xavier

Sparks of dribble-pass-shoot ability for this athletic wing

46. JoJo Tugler, Houston

+12 wingspan for this mobile rim protector

47. Rocco Zikarsky, Brisbane

18-year-old with a chance to be best rim protector in class

48. Javon Small, West Virginia

Highly productive lead guard essential to WVU

49. Ian Jackson, North Carolina

Pure scoring freshman who can catch fire like few others

50. Drake Powell, North Carolina

Hyperactive freshman defender with shooting potential

51. Tomislav Ivisic, Illinois

Floor-spacing center and ball-mover

52. Zvonimir Ivisic, Arkansas

PNR roll & pop 7’2” big

53. Xaivian Lee, Princeton

Shifty guard who can table set and let it fly from deep

54. Bogoljub Markovic, KK Mega

Astounding rebounder with some intriguing movement skills at 6’11”

55. Max Shulga, VCU

Strong combo guard who can run some PNR

56. Chad Baker-Mazara, Auburn

Upperclassman utility wing with a smooth shot

57. Eric Dixon, Villanova

Pure shooting 6’8” upperclassman, one of best players in NCAA

58. Otega Oweh, Kentucky

Tough-nosed defender and transition threat

59. Maxime Raynaud, Stanford

Spacing seven-footer with a post game

The post 2025 NBA Draft Big Board 2.0 appeared first on Swish Theory.

This one is a no-brainer. Flagg is a special prospect, capable of instantly changing the fortunes of any team that selects him. Washington is the fortunate one here, landing their future primary initiator and defensive leader. Flagg helps round out their already promising young core, adding a true superstar prospect to the mix.

– Ben Pfeifer

2. Charlotte Hornets: Collin Murray-Boyles, South Carolina

As a sophomore, Collin Murray-Boyles has boosted both efficiency (82nd percentile to 83rd percentile) and frequency (65th percentile to 70th percentile) as a post-up hub, possesses a burgeoning perimeter isolation game (88th percentile efficiency on 88th percentile frequency), and is a dominant passer in a variety of situations (career 19.8% AST and 1.2 A:TO). With elite offensive production regardless of usage, team context, and opponent difficulty as a young sophomore, Murray-Boyles has all the ingredients of an offensive star. Pair that potential with incredible defensive production, baseline touch, and outlier development indicators galore, and he has endless avenues to impact even if the offensive stardom doesn’t manifest. For a Charlotte team that ranks 29th in offense and 19th in defense, Murray-Boyles brings an integration of both offense and defense that lags behind only Cooper Flagg.

– Maurya Kumpatla

3. Utah Jazz: Dylan Harper, Rutgers

Dylan Harper has established himself as one of the clear-cut top prospects in the 2025 class, combining ideal size for a ball-handler with the ability to generate consistent paint touches via advanced footwork and elite body control. He’s had to handle huge creation responsibility on a Rutgers team devoid of much shooting or ball handling to surround him, and has still managed to be efficient (59% TS%) in spite of that. The biggest question/swing skill with Harper is how well he’ll shoot it at the NBA level, but his percentages (35% 3pt, 74% FT) are respectable enough that you have to imagine that he’ll at least be a decent shooter. Even with Isaiah Collier showing promise as a lead ball-handler in his rookie year, Harper is too good of a prospect to pass up at #3.

– AJ Carter

4. New Orleans Pelicans: Kasparas Jakucionis, Illinois

The Pelicans underwent a pseudo youth movement and Jakucionis will only add to it. They’ve needed more high-end playmaking for Zion Williamson’s entire career, making Jakucionis a perfect fit here. His shooting provides a tantalizing ceiling on the ball and will help him space and cut next to Williamson.

– Ben Pfeifer

5. Toronto Raptors: Khaman Maluach, Duke

Khaman Maluach is a monster. With a true shooting percentage over 70, Maluach is one of the most efficient players in his role in the entire country, despite being introduced to the game of basketball later in life. With fewer years of experience, it is fair to expect some growing pains and there certainly have been some this season at Duke. What has impressed me most throughout the year is not Maluach’s freaky athleticism, true center size, overwhelming offensive rebounding or hyper-efficient scoring, it has been the rate at which he has improved throughout the college season. Playing the five in the NBA will take some refining, it is the most difficult (and important) defensive role on the court, and few players walk into the league ready to do so. With Maluach’s physical tools, potential touch and competitiveness he has all the tools to be a true building block for Toronto. It is hard to imagine a more perfect mentor than Jakob Poeltl as he learns the ropes of NBA defense.

– Tyler Wilson

6. Philadelphia 76ers: Asa Newell, Georgia

Asa checks many boxes for this Sixers team, fitting cleanly at the 4 in the starting lineup and providing a reliable backup 5 option behind Embiid. The strengths of Newell’s game complement this team between his pinpoint offensive rebounding, frontcourt defensive versatility, helpside shot blocking, catch-and-shoot 3pt shooting potential, and the ability to attack closeouts with the shot or pumpfake, drive, and post-up hook. Newell slides right into the starting unit without taking touches from the star scorers and will produce as a positionless defender and off-ball play finisher.

– Ryan Kaminski

7. Brooklyn Nets: VJ Edgecombe, Baylor

VJ Edgecombe has managed to alleviate many concerns brought about by his early season play by consistently shooting the ball from distance (39.5% from 3 in conference play), while increasing both his volume and efficiency as a driver. Despite Edgecombe’s becoming more heavily featured within the Baylor offense, his defensive effort and production has seldom waned. This effort and production has come even though Edgecombe has been cast in a variety of roles and schemes as Baylor constantly tinkered to compensate for the lack of size in their rotation. The schematic inconsistencies have managed to provide a glimpse of how Edgecombe could be deployed as a ‘utility guard’, an archetype which has recently come into vogue and has in many ways defined the best defenses in the NBA over the past few years. Combining the versatile defensive ability with an increasingly potent offense has made Edgecombe a no-brainer pick at this juncture of the draft.

– Ahmed Jama

8. Chicago Bulls: Jase Richardson, Michigan State

The 6’3 quick guard can score at all levels, threatening teams with his feathery touch, feel, and footwork. At pick #8, Richardson was the perfect player for the Chicago Bulls to add to their young core and build on their halfcourt creation. Jase Richardson can hold up defensively for a small guard while being an extremely role-malleable offensive player. The bet for the Bulls is that Richardson’s shot-making inside the arc continues to evolve and translate further beyond the arc, enabling him to keep up with a higher usage role in the long term. In the short term, the Chicago Bulls play with a high transition frequency under Coach Billy Donovan which is a perfect fit with how effective Richardson is in the open-court.

– Roshan Potluri

9. San Antonio Spurs: Ace Bailey, Rutgers

Ace Bailey would be a strong pick for the San Antonio Spurs due to his exceptional shot-making ability and positional size at 6-foot-10, offering a high-ceiling wing who can create his own offense alongside Victor Wembanyama and De’Aaron Fox. His scoring versatility and length could complement the Spurs’ growing core, adding a dynamic perimeter threat to elevate their attack.

– Larry Golden

10. San Antonio Spurs: Derik Queen, Maryland

Derik Queen brings a positionally unique form of advantage creation as a post-hub passer with off-the-dribble shooting upside. Still, his offensive versatility is paired with limited defensive versatility: he’s at the horrid intersection of poor lateral quickness, poor vertical explosion, and underwhelming center size. There isn’t a better fit for this type of offensively tilted, defensively limited PF/C than alongside Victor Wembanyama, potentially the most transcendent two-way center in NBA history.

– Avinash Chauhan

11. Portland Trailblazers: Noa Essengue, ULM

The Portland Trailblazers get one of the youngest players and higher upside propositions in the 2025 NBA Draft at pick #11. Noa Essengue fits what Portland is building with its group of rangy defenders and strong interior presence. At 6’10, Essengue is a versatile defensive player who can operate out of the point-of-attack, back-line, or general help situations. Offensively, Essengue has been dominant in transition and applying physicality in the half-court for Ulm in the German BBL this season, and that can immediately translate to the NBA. While the shooting and strength are still a work in progress, Essengue has been improving these traits at a drastic rate enabling him to be someone who can attack off the catch consistently during his rookie-scale deal.

– Roshan Potluri

12. Houston Rockets: Thomas Sorber, Georgetown

While it was tough to pass up Tre Johnson, I liked the idea of Sorber within this group of exciting young players even more. The idea is somewhat like why they brought Steven Adams in, to provide a physical interior presence, good screening and strong passing. Sorber might eventually shoot it, too, with a smooth form and solid free throw and midrange percentages for a big.

– Matt Powers

13. Atlanta Hawks: Tre Johnson, Texas

Tre Johnson has had one of the most impressive scoring seasons from a high-major freshman in recent memory. Posting a 6.5 Offensive Box Plus-Minus in conference play, second amongst freshmen and only trailing Cooper Flagg, Johnson has ameliorated many concerns of how quickly his game would translate to the most difficult conference in the country. Despite shouldering a massive 27% usage rate, Johnson has managed to adapt and make significant progress both as a facilitator and driver, consistently elevating his rim-rate over the course of the season without detracting from his efficiency. Johnson’s malleability as an offensive player bodes well to his professional career, as his ability to synergize with more interior based scorers will be crucial considering Johnson’s defensive limitations.

– Ahmed Jama

14. Utah Jazz: Kon Knueppel, Duke

For teams looking for shooting on the wing, Kon is one of the premier shotmakers in this year’s draft. He lacks much explosiveness or burst as an athlete, but has strong positional size and is a skilled scorer from every part of the court. Kon is a knockdown shooter off the catch but has more variety to his shotmaking than just that, showing the ability to make pull-ups off the dribble or use his size to carve out space for short jumpers. It remains to be seen how well he’ll be able to survive on defense at the NBA level, but offensively Kon has one of the most translatable skillsets in the draft.

– AJ Carter

15. Orlando Magic: Danny Wolf, Michigan

Have you seen this guy play basketball? Danny Wolf is a grab-and-go seven-foot offensive hub diming up defenses on fast breaks and pick and rolls. Wolf flashes exciting handles, natural point center vision, and incredible feel for the game, hitting highlight pull-up threes and tough finishing touch shots at the rim. Danny makes good reads as a primary decision maker reacting to defenses, averaging 1.01 PPP on “P&R including passes” that ranks in the 84th percentile of all college players.

– Ryan Kaminski

16. Oklahoma City Thunder: Noah Penda, Le Mans

Noah Penda’s integration of length (6-foot-11 wingspan), strength (225 lbs), instincts, and hand-eye coordination have led him to a league-leading blocks total and 2nd-best steals totals as just a 20-year-old in the French Jeep Elite, giving him an argument for best non-big defender in the class. For an Oklahoma City Thunder scheme that’s already historic at forcing turnovers and boasts rim protection from each position, Penda adds even more value. Though he brings shooting and finishing question marks, he’s on a special developmental trajectory as a shooter, and his monster offensive rebounding-assists-stocks integration promises further room for growth.

– Maurya Kumpatla

17. Dallas Mavericks: Jeremiah Fears, Oklahoma

The idea of Kyrie Irving mentoring Fears is too appealing to pass up, but Fears is easily my best on the board at this point. Much like why I drafted him to the Nets in our prior mock draft, Fears has some of the best dribble-pass-shoot upside in the class, carrying a heavy burden for Oklahoma at age 18. It’s tough to find primary upside this late, but the Mavs do here.

– Matt Powers

18. Oklahoma City Thunder: Bennett Stirtz, Drake

Bennett Stirtz is one of the best volume pick-and-roll scorers in all of college basketball, fusing pace, a tight handle, and shotmaking from every area on the court to power 87th percentile pick-and-roll ballhandler efficiency on 99th percentile frequency. He pairs this scoring with best-in-the-class feel, blending visual manipulation with a wide range of deliveries to produce a 35% assist rate and engine a top-40 Drake halfcourt offense. All this makes him an underrated creation bet, but a 47% catch-and-shoot jumpshot and tons of driving production give him a strong dribble/pass/shoot wing base. His footspeed on defense in such a role would be worrisome, but his strong feel and hand-eye coordination that leads to defensive playmaking (3.6% steal rate) would fit like a glove in Oklahoma City.

– Maurya Kumpatla

19. Miami Heat: Dailyn Swain, Xavier

At pick #19, the Miami Heat select Dailyn Swain: the young sophomore forward with creative ball-handling and lock-down defense out of Xavier. Standing at 6’8, Swain fits the Heat’s culture of players who play with a motor and a sense of toughness, which exudes itself in how Swain consistently impacts games in the most opportunistic ways. The impact is seen without needing to play on the ball at Xavier – Swain runs the break hard in transition, keeps the ball moving in the halfcourt, and is always hustling on the boards. That energy, with his size and length, translates to the defensive end where he can cover ground well and excel in lock and trail situations. While the defense and feel on the offensive end will keep him on the court early on, the Heat will need to improve Swain’s two-motion jumper for Swain to hit any form of creation upside. However, in the middle of the first round, Swain’s combination of age, size, burst, feel, flexibility, and handling comfort makes him a worthy proposition for a retooling Heat team.

– Roshan Potluri

20. Minnesota Timberwolves: Nolan Traore, Saint-Quentin

With Mike Conley’s decline Minnesota has a clear need for long-term ball-handling/shot creation outside of Anthony Edwards. While 2024 draft pick Rob Dillingham is an obvious candidate to fill a lot of that responsibility in coming years, it wouldn’t hurt to take another swing on a potential creator. Traore has slid down draft boards after being a preseason potential top 5 pick candidate due to a lack of efficiency and consistency, but outside of the lottery it’s hard to find players with more upside than Traore. Despite struggles this season he still has the talent to be a dynamic creator off the dribble if he can improve as a shotmaker and make smarter decisions with the ball.

– AJ Carter

21. Indiana Pacers: Ben Saraf, ULM

Rick Carlisle loves guards, and Saraf gives the Pacers another dribble-drive-pass threat. The three-point shot is poor off the dribble but acceptable off the catch. At a strong 6’5” and still just 18, Saraf has the build and productivity of someone capable of handling bench primary duties. Perhaps the single best passer in the class.

– Matt Powers

22. Brooklyn Nets: Ryan Kalkbrenner, Creighton

Kalkbrenner’s brand of mistake-free basketball, characterized by foul and TO avoidance, is inherently low friction, and his sheer size (7’5 WS + 250 lbs) with relative mobility gives him a fairly high floor as a defender.  He’s exhibited NBA-caliber dominance since his sophomore year, and he’s slowly increased his 3P rate while consistently shooting over 70% FT for his college career. With much more room to err and experiment on the rebuilding Nets, Kalk’s collegiate extent of dominance may persist more than one would expect with a typical four-year center.

– Avinash Chauhan

23. Brooklyn Nets: Carter Bryant, Arizona

You don’t see too many bulky, athletic forwards take over half their shots from beyond 3P, but at 6’8, 225 pounds, Carter has a whopping 0.60 3P rate while remaining hyper-efficient inside the arc (14 of his 37 2P makes are dunks). The upside with Carter lies within his pull up game: in interviews, he consistently cites players like Tatum and Paul George as personal exemplars, and his AAU playtype distribution was littered with far too many pullups and PnR BH possessions. While his production and processing (7.6 BPM, 6% block, 3% steal, 1 A:TO) give him a reasonably high floor, it’s Carter’s tantalizing combination of youth, size, and shooting proclivity that could unlock true star upside.

– Avinash Chauhan

24. Atlanta Hawks: Liam McNeeley, Connecticut

This was an easy selection, and I would imagine Atlanta would be pretty stoked to draft someone at 24 who is all but a guaranteed NBA rotation player. McNeeley gets it in more ways than one. He is a surprisingly effective defensive rebounder despite his physical limitations, he makes quick decisions on and off the ball, and (somewhat surprisingly) has shown the ability to handle a larger offensive load than he did in high school playing on one of the most stacked teams in recent memory. McNeeley will present some questions defensively, but he should be able to slide into lineups featuring both Dyson Daniels and Jalen Johnson easily. He’s only hit ~35% of his threes this season, but don’t let that deceive you, McNeeley is one of the premier off-ball weapons in this class.

– Tyler Wilson

25. Washington Wizards: Labaron Philon, Alabama

Philon was by far the best player available, but he’s a logical fit for a Washington team still looking for high-end talent. The Alabama freshman is a quick, shifty guard who pressures the rim and passes at a high level. He could develop into a valuable connector piece for a Wizards team that just added Cooper Flagg.

– Ben Pfeifer

26. Orlando Magic: Tahaad Pettiford, Auburn

Tahaad Pettiford brings downhill explosiveness, quick first step burst, soft finishing touch, pull-up 3pt shooting range, and two-way feel to a team that needs it. A guard that can penetrate the paint, attack the rim, kick out to shooters, score and shoot the rock who can hold his own defensively would see a warm welcome in Orlando. He’ll have opportunity to develop as Orlando continues building a perennial playoff contender, where maybe the Magic won’t need to make a splashy trade if they can nail the right complementary guard to their core in the draft.

– Ryan Kaminski

27. Brooklyn Nets: Kam Jones, Marquette

Kam Jones would be a strong pick for the Brooklyn Nets due to his proven scoring ability and playmaking skills, averaging over 20 points and 6 assists per game at Marquette, which could bolster their backcourt during a rebuild. His experience as a senior guard, combined with his improved shooting and passing, makes him a ready-made contributor who could thrive in Brooklyn’s system under Jordi Fernández.

– Larry Golden

28. Boston Celtics: Rasheer Fleming, St. Joseph’s

Fleming is a bit of a divisive selection as a lower-usage upperclassman playing in the A10, but at pick #28 the positives are too hard to ignore. He has been massive for St. Joe’s this year, shooting over 70% at the rim and 41% from three. In an era of NBA basketball where efficient shots are valued more than ever, Fleming is an easy bet to score in the most valuable areas of the court. His block, steal and rebounding numbers are all positive and point towards a genuine contributor on the defensive side of the ball as a powerful forward with the ability to play some small-ball five. If Boston truly “needs” anything in the draft, it is cost-controlled production. Fleming should provide real value on his rookie deal as an older prospect with the frame and complementary skillet to produce immediately. 

– Tyler Wilson

29. Los Angeles Clippers: Nique Clifford, Colorado State

Nique Clifford to the Los Angeles Clippers would be great because of his versatility as a 6-foot-6 guard bringing defensive flexibility and rebounding tenacity, addressing the team’s need for depth on the wing alongside stars like Kawhi Leonard and James Harden. His senior-year performance at Colorado State—averaging 15.6 points, 9.7 rebounds, and 2.8 assists on efficient shooting—shows he could provide immediate contributions as a role player for the Clips.

– Larry Golden

30. Phoenix Suns: Anthony Robinson II, Missouri

It is unclear in which direction the Suns want to go, and Ant gives them options. His POA defense is NBA-ready, a thief ready to pounce at any moment. The best player on a top-20 team in the nation as a sophomore, Robinson is able to do important things on the court. He is the team leader in assists who has also shown outside shooting potential with 42% from three, 49% from midrange and 77% from the line splits. Despite being only 6’3”, Ant’s reported 6’7” wingspan makes him more dangerous in passing lanes or snagging the errant offensive board. His 0.78 free throw rate reiterates his level of physicality, NBA ready despite the skinny frame.

– Matt Powers

31. Boston Celtics: Johni Broome, Auburn

32. Charlotte Hornets: Miles Byrd, San Diego State

33. Minnesota Timberwolves: Flory Bidunga, Kansas

34. Charlotte Hornets: Yaxel Lendeborg, UAB

35. Detroit Pistons: Paul McNeil, NC State

36. Philadelphia 76ers: Adou Thiero, Arkansas

37. Brooklyn Nets: Javon Small, West Virginia

38. Sacramento Kings: Darrion Williams, Texas Tech

39. San Antonio Spurs: Chad Baker-Mazara, Auburn

40. Toronto Raptors: Eric Dixon, Villanova

41. Oklahoma City Thunder: Joshua Jefferson, Iowa State

42. Washington Wizards: Egor Demin, BYU

43. Orlando Magic: Boogie Fland, Arkansas

44. Golden State Warriors: JoJo Tugler, Houston

45. Chicago Bulls: Max Shulga, VCU

46. Los Angeles Clippers: Walter Clayton Jr., Florida

47. Utah Jazz: Alex Toohey, Sydney

48. Washington Wizards: Nate Bittle, Oregon

49. Utah Jazz: Tyrese Proctor, Duke

50. Washington Wizards: JT Toppin, Texas Tech

51. Cleveland Cavaliers: Nolan Winter, Wisconsin

52. Indiana Pacers: Alex Condon, Florida

53. Memphis Grizzlies: Isaiah Evans, Duke

54. Los Angeles Lakers: Curtis Jones, Iowa State

55. New York Knicks: Terrance Arceneaux, Houston

56. Phoenix Suns: Hugo Gonzalez, Real Madrid

57. Orlando Magic: Otega Oweh, Kentucky

58. Houston Rockets: Rocco Zikarsky

59. Cleveland Cavaliers: Braden Smith, Purdue

The post 2025 NBA Mock Draft 2.0 appeared first on Swish Theory.

Do-it-all wing with premium skill and athleticism

2. Dylan Harper, Rutgers

Bruising driving guard and potent scorer

3. Khaman Maluach, Duke

Towering young big with upside as a play finisher and rim protector

4. VJ Edgecombe, Baylor

Explosive scoring guard and lockdown defender

5. Kasparas Jakucionis, Illinois

Pull-up maestro with passing creativity

6. Collin Murray-Boyles, South Carolina

Elite playmaking forward on both sides of the ball

7. Ace Bailey, Rutgers

Versatile shooting wing with dynamic athleticism

8. Derik Queen, Maryland

Creative big-bodied drive threat who can pass

9. Tre Johnson, Texas

Versatile scoring, smooth three point shooting bucket-getter

10. Thomas Sorber, Georgetown

Tough freshman PF with strong feel for the game

11. Jeremiah Fears, Oklahoma

Young lead guard with dribble, pass, shoot upside

12. Noa Essengue, ULM

Sinewy rim attacker with budding ball skills and defensive versatility

13. Asa Newell, Georgia

Versatile defender, glass-crashing post-up threat developing three point shot

14. Jase Richardson, Michigan State

Three-level scoring guard with quick processing

15. Labaron Philon, Alabama

Gadgety, versatile, productive guard every team could use

16. Ben Saraf, ULM

Best passer in class as a game managing point guard and scorer

17. Noah Penda, Le Mans

Menacing wing defender and offensive connector

18. Miles Byrd, San Diego State

Stocks machine with shooting potential

19. Kon Knueppel, Duke

Three point sniper with shooting versatility and P&R playmaking chops

20. Johni Broome, Auburn

Versatile playmaking forward as one of best NCAA players in the country

21. Kam Jones, Marquette

Paint touch machine, three-level scorer who can pass

22. Nolan Traore, Saint-Quentin

Quick first step point guard who is a willing shooter and active defender

23. Rasheer Fleming, Saint Joseph’s

Big wing who can shoot with a 7’5” wingspan

24. Egor Demin, BYU

Elite passer with inconsistent play against top competition

25. Liam McNeeley, Connecticut

Three point threat who attacks closeouts looking to finish strong

26. Danny Wolf, Michigan

Unique ball-handling point center with quick processing skills

27. Adou Thiero, Arkansas

Physical slasher who creates events on defense

28. Darrion Williams, Texas Tech

Skilled upperclassman who can shoot and pass from the wing

29. Anthony Robinson II, Missouri

Point-of-attack demon with some ball skills

30. Boogie Fland, Arkansas

Game managing shooter and passer out for season

31. Hugo Gonzalez, Real Madrid

Toolsy high motor player with versatility

32. Ryan Kalkbrenner, Creighton

Big man upperclassman who dominates the paint on both ends

33. Flory Bidunga, Kansas

Undersized but hyper-athletic rangy big

34. Alex Karaban, Connecticut

Elite shooter and wing defender, national champion

35. Will Riley, Illinois

Under-developed young wing shooter and passer

36. Rocco Zikarsky, Brisbane

18-year-old with a chance to be best rim protector in class

37. Tahaad Pettiford, Auburn

Dribble-pass-shoot quick small guard

38. JT Toppin, Texas Tech

High motor, high producing rim attacker

39. Joshua Jefferson, Iowa State

Physical defender with some connector chops as a big wing

40. Ian Jackson, North Carolina

Pure scoring freshman who can catch fire like few others

41. Bennett Stirtz, Drake

Potentially underrated lead guard up-transfer from Division II

42. JoJo Tugler, Houston

+12 wingspan for this mobile rim protector

43. Nique Clifford, Colorado State

Fluid-moving upperclassman who does a little of everything

44. Chad Baker-Mazara, Auburn

Upperclassman utility wing with a smooth shot

45. Tomislav Ivisic, Illinois

Floor-spacing center and ball-mover

46. Carter Bryant, Arizona

Talented freshman wing providing a punch off the bench

47. KJ Lewis, Arizona

Aggressive defender with questions on offense

48. Dink Pate, Mexico City

18-year-old G Leaguer with a big body and flashes all over the court

49. Yaxel Lendeborg, UAB

Elbow/post hub with a well-rounded driving game and plus passing

50. Bogoljub Markovic, KK Mega

Astounding rebounder with some intriguing movement skills at 6’11”

51. Xaivian Lee, Princeton

Shifty guard who can table set and let it fly from deep

52. Chaz Lanier, Tennessee

High volume shooter who rarely makes mistakes at age 23

53. Eric Dixon, Villanova

Pure shooting 6’8” upperclassman, one of best players in NCAA

54. Javon Small, West Virginia

Highly productive lead guard essential to WVU

55. Walter Clayton Jr.

High volume three point shooter who can do some guard things

56. Drake Powell, North Carolina

Hyperactive freshman defender with shooting potential

57. Alex Condon, Florida

Sharp-passing sophomore big who can grease and offense and get stocks

58. RJ Luis, Saint John’s

Dynamic athlete scorer

59. Milan Momcilovic

Unblockable shot for this 6’8” 40% three point shooter

The post 2025 NBA Draft Big Board 1.0 appeared first on Swish Theory.

Since the 2024 cycle, I have tried to dive deeper into answering the question of how we can project and evaluate draft prospects more accurately from the vacuum. I thought the best way to approach this would be to solve the problem systematically. I started by trying to identify what traits were common among the players that succeeded over time regardless of how limited their early usage was and their fit in the roster construction.

In a lot of ways to rank players on a board is taking a step back and looking at scouting the draft through a broader systemic approach. I believe that part of the exercise has intrinsic value. However, to project without a development context has no real value. I think the optimal way to rank and project the players from a vacuum is to identify the caliber a player can reach even if they end up in a less-than-desired development context.

The idea that I kept circling back to is that success was often tied to the traits that were much harder to develop: feel, athletic tools, motor, and touch. Digging through the history of the draft, it landed me on the concept of role malleability – a notion that encompasses these traits. In my experience, showing a high proclivity to role malleability below the age of 23 has been a strong proxy for a player’s processing, application of athletic tools, shooting tools, and motor. With this, my draft philosophy evolved and has helped me formulate my tenets of scouting the draft through my eye test and statistical analysis:

• Age-Adjusted Production Relative To Competition.
• Role Malleability Traits (Application Of Feel, Motor, Application Of Athleticism, Touch).
• Skill Intersections (Positive Or Negative Chain Of Skills That Provide Baseline For Production).
• Margin Of Error On The Court
• Application Of Tools (Avoid Archetype Bias)

In my margins piece, I designed a funnel framework to systematically value the projection of players based on their margin of error – a function of a player’s advantage creation/mitigation skillsets. While I still agree with much of what went into the framework, I realized I structured it too narrowly by using the dependency on scheme (usage of screens or an empty-side action to clear one side of the court). I mainly argued that the dependencies on scheme and volume of advantages created on offense or mitigated on defense derived a player’s margin of error on the court, and therefore their value. While this system was valuable, I noticed it was devaluing the players who do produce at a better rate with the help of scheme than the ones who produce worse and do not require assistance to create or mitigate advantages.

Since reading Avinash’s piece this past cycle, I think a more expanded way to frame the funnel framework would be by defining the Margin of Error On the Court as the application of tools (cognitive, athletic, and shooting) that lead to a positive basketball outcome regardless of scheme dependency. Advantage creation and mitigation are essentially a function of the application of tools and the efficiency of that application.

This change in framework brings more focus to the efficiency and success rate of a player versus the former idea of valuing a player for their lack of scheme dependencies or volume (a number that can be tied to usage/role). The former idea has value but overvalues high-volume flawed advantage creators and devalues players in smaller roles but are extremely efficient. When it comes to projection, having this idea in mind removes the bias of archetypes, especially from the lens of advantages.

This is another reason why I have valued role malleability highly, it captures the idea of showcasing mastery in a number of roles – mastery that only happens when the combination of cognitive, athletic, and shooting tools are applied effectively and lead to a good basketball outcome consistently.

I believe grading a player on the five tenets above gives a better projection of player quality regardless of the development context. This is how I would now evaluate players within the tiers of the funnel framework and each tier directly correlates to a tier of my draft board. Essentially a lot of the philosophy from the original framework still applies but instead of valuing it through an advantages lens, it’s about how well they grade against the 5 tenets of my draft scouting philosophy to take a more holistic approach.

Looking at it from a statistical lens, I think another good way to frame these tiers is through career VORP in the same way Spreadsheet Scouting does with his board. I plan to do my deep dive into different impact metrics to correlate these tiers statistically but for now, using these similar thresholds as a projection benchmark feels like a good approximation.

Pre-Conference Play 2025 Draft Board

Although there is still plenty of time for players to develop and regress to their averages throughout the draft cycle, this is my current assessment of the 2025 NBA Draft. Here, I rank my top draft-eligible players up to this point who I believe have the potential to reach the Green tier of the framework for their career in the NBA.

*Disclaimer: Working with the Mexico City Capitanes this year, I have excluded any prospects that form a conflict with my work and the Capitanes. I have also excluded players who will likely not declare for this draft.

Purple: All-Time Tier (45+ VORP)

• 0.1 Cooper Flagg

Players in this tier tend to check all 5 tenets I’ve laid out above. Cooper Flagg grades extremely well and is the epitome of my philosophy. Productivity at a young age, strong role malleability traits, positive skill intersections, high margin of error, Flagg’s got them all. At a young age, Flagg already has the traits that are tough to develop(size, motor, fluidity, feel, touch) and applies them effectively outside of his 3-point shooting. Even without making 3s at an efficient clip, Flagg’s margin of error is high with his size, feel, and motor which is evident in his ability to scale on and off the ball on both sides of the ball.

The reason why Flagg may not reach this tier would be his peak as an on-ball creator and a lot of this will do with his current offensive process. He creates his advantage by using his size and fluidity to get leverage but oftentimes, even when he has the opportunity to take advantage of that and get straight to the rim, he uses this window to take a midrange shot. This could be a lack of confidence in his handle counters to take it to the rim (mostly uses a spin move when he gets contained off the dribble). Flagg’s handle issue also shows up in his passing deliveries, passing off of a live dribble is still a work in progress so he often picks up his dribble to jump pass and expand his window to pass. The midrange reliance and handle issues could put more pressure on Flagg to be a better 3-point shooter to get to primacy; however, with the touch on midrange jumpers, free throw efficiency, and 3-point volume (7 3PA/100 at Duke), he’s got the chance to become a reliable 3-point shooter even in a problematic development context.

Dark Blue: All-NBA Caliber (30+ VORP)

• 1.2 Collin Murray-Boyles

Players in this tier also grade well against my tenets but there may be a smaller margin of error or limitations in role malleability that stop them from reaching the tier above but are still highly valuable players.

Collin Murray-Boyles is probably the clearest example of applying their tools to the max at a young age, with an emphasis on cognitive tools. We have over 40 games of Murray-Boyles having outlier production as a rebounder, finisher, playmaker, and defender for a 6’7″ player (10+ OREB%, 20+ DREB%, 60+ TS%, 15+ AST%, 2+ BLK and STL%). Playing in the SEC and producing at this level as a teenager is the epitome of functionally applying your tools to a high degree regardless of being undersized for a big. It’s a real proxy for how Murray-Boyles can impose his size, strength, length, feel, and hand-eye coordination even against older athletes. He has such a high margin for error because he produces at an outlier rate in so many areas of the game, but he truly shines on the defensive end. Processing rotations early, the length and coordination to protect the rim, the ability to flip his hips, footspeed, and upper-body strength to contain dribble drives all give Murray-Boyles a high degree of role malleability on defense.

Unlike Flagg, Collin Murray-Boyles is a lower-volume shooter and handler which has limited his role malleability on the other end, and plays more as a big offensively. While he’s shown a much larger sample of shooting and handling in HS and AAU compared to college, the sample is still limited. There has been an uptick in that volume in his sophomore year compared to his freshman year, but the lack of experience in those situations would need him to end up in a context that would allow him to play through inexperience as a handler and reach a higher outcome on the offensive end. Regardless, he’s shown a high degree of efficiency on non-rim 2s and good energy transfer on his shot since HS/AAU that the shot can be improved with range even without that desirable context. In my opinion, Murray Boyles’ has a high margin of error with the rest of his game that he can reach this tier of player operating as a high feel DHO big and exceedingly versatile defender.

Light Blue: All-Star Caliber (15+ VORP)

• 2.3 Dylan Harper
• 2.4 Derik Queen
• 2.5 Jeremiah Fears
• 2.6 Jase Richardson
• 2.7 Thomas Sorber
• 2.8 Darrion Williams
• 2.9 VJ Edgecombe

The light blue tier tends to have players that have even lower margins of error than the tiers above due to having more red flags in their profile but produced at such an outlier level in my other tenets that they can still provide all-star caliber production. Even with the red flags, the players in this tier can often reach secondary or tertiary creation with varying degrees of role malleability on defense.

Dylan Harper has shown he can be an elite driver with his acceleration, size, rotation in tight spaces, and feel but he’s struggled with his midrange efficiency since HS/AAU. He’s got mediocre initial burst and vertical explosion, which shows up on tape and in his defensive playmaking numbers against higher-level competition so he needs to be a high-level pull-up shooter to be a more rounded scorer in the league. These issues drop his margins of error but with how outlier his driving production is at his age, the shooting is something that can improve in a less-desired context considering he’s always shown a proclivity to shoot the ball with volume.

Maryland big man Derik Queen has shown high application of processing, touch, and scoring versatility so far. Even though he is closer to being a sophomore in age, Queen has one of the higher offensive projections in the class. His ability to scale on and off the ball offensively, hurt defenses with his touch, and shift defenses with his playmaking at his size give him a high margin of error. The application of tools is not as effective on the other side of the ball, where he’s not a true shot-blocking presence and will most likely be reliant on hedge and recover situations. Queen’s production would be dominant even for a sophomore and with this margin of error on the offensive end, he can reach All-Star level production in the NBA even with his lack of role malleability on the defensive end.

Jase Richardson, in addition to Cason Wallace and Johnny Furphy in years past, have been the exact types of players that have caused me to define the margin of error on the application of tools and their efficiency rather than grading them against the volume or the lack of dependency on scheme. Oftentimes, it’s difficult to have high usage as a freshman in some high-major programs due to a) upperclassmen monopolizing usage and b) getting the coach’s confidence to rely on a young player. Players like Jase Richardson are exceptionally efficient in their low-usage roles but often don’t have the leeway to do more even if they can. Being elite at the simple things does not get valued enough and it’s why I believe Richardson has a false ceiling.

He’s exceedingly quick at processing passes that are one rotation away, and ample burst and strong touch make him a multi-level scorer. Richardson has traits that are harder to develop and give him an immediate baseline as a closeout creator, but these same traits are why I think he can scale up with a higher offensive workload. So far those results in on-ball situations since his pre-NCAA sample have been stellar albeit on a small sample. There are some red flags with his size and athletic indicators such as rebounding and defensive playmaking against top competition, but Richardson has such a high margin of error with how great he is at the simple and the role malleability he’s shown in limited usage.

Green: Career Starter – Above Average Rotational Player (3+ VORP)

• 3.10 Noah Penda
• 3.11 Khaman Malauch
• 3.12 Noa Essengue
• 3.13 Labaron Philon
• 3.14 Johni Broome
• 3.15 Kam Jones
• 3.16 Kasparas Jakucionis
• 3.17 Anthony Robinson II
• 3.18 Tre Johnson
• 3.19 Ryan Kalkbrenner
• 3.20 Asa Newell
• 3.21 Ace Bailey
• 3.22 Miles Byrd

Finally, the players in this tier tend to have the production to be good NBA players but have clear limitations or flags in their profile that prevent them from reaching higher value. For example, this can be players with strong application of tools but there are specific areas in their game where the tools might be missing or are not effectively applied, causing a far lower margin for error. Due to these issues with their games, these players generally need to end up in a more favorable development context to attain this tier or higher

Kasparas Jakucionis has shown a strong intersection of touch and feel at 6’6″ but he has far lower margins of error to be a role-malleable creator considering his high turnovers, low at-the-rim rate, below-the-rim finishing, and difficulty shooting off-the-catch. Perhaps Jakucionis is such an elite shooter that his margins expand, but with these concerns, I have a tough time betting higher value solely on his intersection of touch and feel.

Ace Bailey is a player who is going to need to end up in a context with defined roles, getting him experience playing in a scaled-down role and working on quicker decision-making. Why? Bailey has been tremendous as a shooter at a young age, especially inside the arc but his feel is lagging to project him as a creator. His shotmaking at his size can be absurd but his low assist/usage ratio, high turnover rate, and lower rim rate give him far lower margins. This shows up on tape too, where Bailey often can hold onto the ball for long periods out of triple-threat situations, slowing down the offense and not capitalizing on a tilted defense. With the right context, these tendencies can be hammered out and you might be looking at a dynamic play finisher that can play multiple defensive roles.

Missouri guard Anthony Robinson II will be below 20.5 on draft night and has had great production in his first real year of usage. At 6’3 with great feel, touch, and length, he’s shown a great application of his tools with his high assist/usage ratio, OREB%, FTR, and STL%. Honestly from a statistical perspective, there’s not a lot to question in Robinson’s profile outside of his low 3-point volume and efficiency which could be a function of his role at Missouri because he shot a 0.42 3-point rate in 17U EYBL play.

He’s also not an outlier vertical athlete at his size with his < 1 BLK% and lower dunk numbers. These issues cause Robinson to have a lower error for margin, but the biggest gripe I have with him is when you turn on the tape. From a statistical lens, it looks like Robinson has a sound handle, but he’s got some issues with lifting from his handle into deliveries in live-dribble situations. Part of this is just general ball control as he has to expend more energy to keep the dribble alive and that often leads to high dribble points. Due to this, Missouri sets highway screens to get Robinson better lanes and he relies on a jail dribble to not have his handle tested. While I think the shooting can be developed with his shooting indicators throughout his sample, the handle gives a lower margin of error to be a creator in a less-than-favorable context. However, with the rest of his profile, he’s got the chance to be a strong starter with development.

The post 2025 NBA Draft Board (Pre-Conference Play) and some draft philosophy notes appeared first on Swish Theory.

1. Washington Wizards: Cooper Flagg, Duke

Cooper Flagg is a primary offensive option, one of the best defensive players in the country, leading a top ten team as a true 18-year-old freshman after being the highest-rated American High School prospect since… Anthony Davis? Yet somehow the discourse surrounding him to start the year has developed a negative tint. This is a special prospect, even if he doesn’t become the literal reincarnation of LeBron James. Two-way forwards do not grow on trees and their importance to playoff basketball cannot be understated. A foundation of Cooper Flagg and Bilal Coulibaly is an ideal starting point for building a roster meant for May and June. While Washington might not have your typical “star creator” on the roster they are not in a place to be drafting for context at the top of the draft. These kinds of players are worth their weight in gold, and the Wizards are running to the bank.

– Tyler Wilson

2. New Orleans Pelicans: Dylan Harper, Rutgers

Dylan Harper is a natural scoring creator with legitimate two-way feel; Dylan dices up defenses with ease. Harper consistently creates good looks for himself and his teammates, forces turnovers on defense, plays with a grab-and-go pace, and scores tough shots at every level. Dylan’s downhill explosiveness jumps off the page with incredible body control to decelerate, finish at the rim, draw fouls, and kick out to open shooters. Dylan looks like this draft class’ best primary halfcourt offensive engine who can create good looks for the team every time down the floor. With Zion, Herb Jones, and Trey Murphy flanking him in the frontcourt, adding Dylan Harper to the mix opens up the Pelicans’ options to build around this exciting walking bucket.

– Ryan Kaminski

3. Utah Jazz: Derik Queen, Maryland

The 6’10 Derik Queen will go to the Utah Jazz in the upcoming NBA Draft, and it’s easy to see why. His exceptional skillset makes him a highly coveted player for any team, but especially for the Jazz at this point in the draft. With a blend of feel, versatility, and impressive court vision, Queen can impact games in multiple facets. The ability to grab the ball off the glass and show off how comfortable he is as a ball handler in the open floor will be a headache for teams. Coaches can deploy him in delay actions, chin, dribble handoffs as the operator and trust him to make the right reads. The potential of having a pair as skilled as Lauri Markkanen and Queen could lead to not only fun for fans, but also wins.

– Larry Golden

4. Toronto Raptors: Collin Murray-Boyles, South Carolina

Despite having played this season in relative obscurity compared to other highly touted draft prospects, Collin Murray-Boyles has made significant developments to his game which should see him garner heavy consideration at the top of the class. During Murray-Boyles’ freshman campaign he played a more complementary role for South Carolina and thrived as a play finisher and opportunistic playmaker. So far this season, Murray-Boyles’ usage has been significantly scaled up and he’s gotten MORE efficient as a scorer. Of the 14 players in the country 6’7 or taller with over a 25% Usage Rate, Murray-Boyles possesses the highest True-Shooting% and the second-highest assist rate. What these statistical thresholds convey is Murray-Boyles’ presenting one of the most unique intersections of size and playmaking ability in the class. While I understand the Raptors’ faithful may have some consternation about Murray-Boyles’ fit with their resident jumbo-playmaker in Scottie Barnes, I believe this is a misguided thought for a team still seeking identity. At this phase of their team-building process the Raptors cannot afford to draft for fit and Murray-Boyles, in my estimation, is the best player remaining on the board.

– Ahmed Jama

5. Charlotte Hornets: Thomas Sorber, Georgetown

Charlotte secures their star big of the future with Thomas Sorber. A rotation of Mark Williams, Nick Richards, and Miles Bridges at center has resulted in three straight bottom-10 defensive seasons. Sorber’s 10.8% stock rate and +4.5 defensive BPM using physical dominance, feel, fluidity, and hand-eye coordination promise instant remedies. His athleticism, touch, and processing fit immediately as a play finisher with LaMelo Ball and as a dribble-handoff hub with Brandon Miller, while his massive offensive rebounding-stocks-assists integration (10.0% offensive rebound and 16.5% assist rates), tons of interior craft (78th percentile post-up efficiency), and ample shooting indicators dating back to high school (37.9% on non-rim twos and 71.6% on free-throws pre-NCAA) enable further pathways for development.

– Maurya Kumpatla

6. Portland Trailblazers: Ace Bailey, Rutgers

Portland is a team in an interesting spot, as they have a lot of intriguing younger players but lack a clear direction for their roster. Ace makes a lot of sense for them as arguably the best player available who also fits in nicely around some of their other core pieces with his length, shotmaking, and defensive upside. Portland would be a good landing spot for Ace as well, as they have enough ball handling and guard play to be able to ease him in offensively and let him work off the ball rather than overtasking him in a creator role.

– AJ Carter

7. Oklahoma City Thunder: VJ Edgecombe, Baylor

The OKC Thunder keep getting stronger, adding another top-10 pick to their already-loaded young core. As the No. 1 seed in the West, their defense has been a force, built on aggressively forcing turnovers through blocks and steals. Enter VJ Edgecombe, the only freshman to post a 5% mark in both steal and block rates—making him the perfect fit for this defensive juggernaut. Joining the Thunder gives him the ideal situation to showcase his defensive strengths while sharpening his offensive game. The Thunder’s guard room is stacked, but the chance to work on his shot with Chip Engelland and reduce driving turnovers in OKC’s spaced-out drive-and-kick offense should do wonders for VJ’s offensive development.

– Roshan Potluri

8. Brooklyn Nets: Jeremiah Fears, Oklahoma

Jeremiah Fears could lock up the Brooklyn Nets’ point guard position for the foreseeable future. The Oklahoma freshman has taken up huge usage (most in the SEC) despite only recently turning 18. There are few chances for heliocentric upside in this class, and Fears might have it with his dribble/pass/shoot potential and early returns. With patience, technique, and surprising strength beyond his years (he draws a TON of fouls), Fears will be a tough cover at any level. He’s not a pushover on defense, either, securing over two steals per game with limited fouling. The Nets could give Fears a long enough runway to see just how high that upside is.

– Matt Powers

9. Detroit Pistons: Asa Newell, Georgia

I’m aware this choice may feel somewhat controversial. Detroit was not a team I found terribly easy to draft for. I strongly considered Kasparas as an off-ball shotmaker alongside Cade, which I believe to be Kasparas’ ideal role. Newell is a guy I’m higher on than consensus, I buy the shooting relative to the numbers and the general scalability, which Detroit needs. They don’t have a tonne of long-term versatility within their core, and I buy Newell being able to slot in alongside whatever they want to do. He just feels like the exact type of player they need in the half-court and I buy Bickerstaff being a good coach for him, which matters.

– Joe Hulbert

10. Chicago Bulls: Kasparas Jakucionis, Illinois

It’s been a while since the Bulls have had a point guard who can make things happen in the halfcourt and create for their teammates consistently. Jakucionis is a 6’6 point guard with true star upside who flashes elite passing skills, pull-up shooting, and driving. In 177 possessions as the pick and roll ball handler he scores a 0.944 in PPP which is good enough for 64th percentile. The shooting off the dribble has been rock steady as he’s taken 36 and made 47%, even before arriving at Illinois it’s been a true strength of his which is a very desirable skill in the NBA. This would be a no-brainer pick for the Chicago Bulls.

– Larry Golden

11. Sacramento Kings: Liam McNeeley, UConn

A high volume 3pt sniper handoff extraordinaire who attacks closeouts with a myriad of tools, Liam McNeeley slides right into the Kings’ schemes. McNeeley brings 3-point shot versatility (C&S, pull-up, movement) and counters closeouts by attacking the rack looking to posterize anyone in his path. In Montverde’s loaded starting unit of Cooper Flagg, Asa Newell, Derik Queen, and Rob Wright, McNeeley would often end up the leading scorer as a floor-spacing play-finishing scoring valve who could heat up at any moment. Whether he’s backing up Malik Monk and Kevin Huerter or replacing them, McNeeley can fill a similar role playing off the strong screen DHO playmaking of Domantas Sabonis, whether De’Aaron Fox stays in town or not.

– Ryan Kaminski

12. San Antonio Spurs: Jase Richardson, Michigan State

Steering away from their affinity towards lengthy, athletic defensive-minded wings nets San Antonio one of the most well-polished offensive prospects in the class. Jase Richardson kills with productivity by extracting the most out of every touch; few can match his balanced shot distribution and monster offensive efficiency (74% true shooting and 3.7 assist-to-turnover ratio). His integration of versatile shooting, driving, and pristine decision-making gives him a high floor with tons of role malleability as a spot-up shooter and second-side creator. Still, Richardson has consistently scaled up production in games with higher doses of usage in a way that gives hope for untapped on-ball upside: he has a 74.5% true shooting in games with <15% usage versus 78.2% in games with >15% usage.

– Maurya Kumpatla

13. Atlanta Hawks: Tre Johnson, Texas

Atlanta already has several long-term pieces in place (Trae Young, Dyson Daniels, Jalen Johnson,  Zaccharie Risacher), and Tre Johnson looks the part of someone who has the versatility to complement all of them. He’s a ready-made shotmaker with high-end upside as a shooter, and he’s also shown flashes as a playmaker and on-ball defender. A fully developed version of Johnson would be a great fit in Atlanta as a do-it-all wing who can fit into a variety of roles while spacing the floor for Trae.

– AJ Carter

14. Oklahoma City Thunder: Noah Penda, Le Mans

In today’s NBA, you can never have too many dribble/pass/shoot wings, and that holds true even for the stacked OKC Thunder. Noah Penda brings the perfect blend of high feel, strength, and catch-and-shoot ability to thrive as a closeout creator in the Thunder’s offense. Where Penda truly stands out is on the defensive end, where he excels at creating turnovers both on the perimeter and as a weakside rim protector. This combination of skills on both ends of the floor should allow Penda to make an immediate impact for OKC, all while being under 21 for most of his rookie year.

– Roshan Potluri

15. Indiana Pacers: Johni Broome, Auburn

One of college basketball’s main storylines in the early season has been Auburn’s historically dominant start. Currently leading every major computer rating system while playing the most difficult schedule in the country, Johni Broome in many ways has been the catalyst for Auburn’s early-season heroics. Broome has oscillated between being the team’s defensive anchor and offensive fulcrum, similar to the previous season, while increasing his efficiency across the board. Broome’s all-encompassing impact on the best team in college basketball bodes well for his role in the league, where interchangeability is a necessary condition for reserve frontcourt players. And with Myles Turner’s impending free agency, the Pacers’ frontcourt composition is in a precarious state. Johni Broome could easily be integrated into a lineup with or without Turner, and coalesce with the other Pacer’s frontcourt players.

– Ahmed Jama

16. San Antonio Spurs: Kon Knueppel, Duke

The 19th-ranked offense Spurs double down on offensive bets here with Kon Knueppel, who is as pure of a shooter as you’ll find. He’s a lifetime 41% on threes, 84% on free throws, and 49% on non-rim twos across the EYBL and NCAA since 2020, making his shooting projection seamless. Knueppel pairs this shooting with high levels of ballhandling and feel, possessing a tight handle (9.7% turnover rate) with off-putting dribble cadences and being a quick processor (3.4 assist-to-turnover ratio), all of which coincide to make him an 88th percentile pick-and-roll ball handler in the country according to Synergy Sports. Athleticism and physicality are major concerns for Knueppel on both ends, but no team gives him the margins to succeed as the Spurs’ length and athleticism do.

– Maurya Kumpatla

17. Oklahoma City Thunder: Noa Essengue, Ulm

Noa Essengue will be 18.5 on draft night, making him an elite upside pick for the Thunder. With an established roster and a strong development staff, there’s no pressure for him to create in the half-court right away. Essengue has been a dominant force in transition, applying immense pressure on the rim with 34 dunks and a 0.77 free throw rate in the Basketball Bundesliga (25 games). At 6’10” with a reported 9’3.25” reach, Essengue is a pliable forward capable of both protecting the rim and stifling opponents at the point of attack. Despite being a teenager, Essengue shows great feel for the game which is evident in his 2% steal rate and 1.3 assist-to-turnover ratio. While his touch as a finisher still needs work, his 68.6% from the free-throw line and 30% three-point rate provide a strong foundation for improvement. With one of the NBA’s best shooting development staff, Essengue is well-positioned to refine his skills and develop into a special two-way player for the Thunder.

– Roshan Potluri

18. Golden State Warriors: Egor Demin, BYU

A quintessential Warriors player with his intersection of size and feel, if he were drafted this season Demin would be one of only four one-and-done freshmen above 6’7 to post above a 20% assist rate, the others being Anthony Black, RJ Barrett, Scottie Barnes, Cade Cunningham and Ben Simmons. Demin has acquitted himself extremely well exclusively running the point in BYU’s NBA-style offense. However, questions remain about whether he can sustain this production versus better competition, and how well his shooting will hold considering his mediocre priors. While these concerns are valid, what Demin’s demonstrated so far should portend well for a reduced role for a Golden State team in need of a two-way connector.

– Ahmed Jama

19. Houston Rockets: Khaman Maluach, Duke

The Rockets get one of the most impactful freshmen in the country at a relative value. Khaman Maluach has played a critical role in Duke’s nation-leading adjusted defensive efficiency while playing a remarkably mistake-free offensive role. Everything about Khaman’s game oozes physical dominance, starting with anthropometrics: he has 10-inch wide hands and a 9’8 standing reach, both of which would rank amongst the top of the league. Khaman is a force on the glass (15% offensive rebound rate), a wildly efficient scorer (81% true shooting), and he’s showcased an uncanny ability to both draw fouls (0.60 free throw rate) and limit possession obstruction (< 4 fouls/40 + 11% TO). He even demonstrates some semblance of touch, shooting 80% from the line. Khaman and his anti-foul rim protection style should seamlessly slot into Ime Udoka’s stifling defensive scheme. There are certainly pertinent concerns regarding Khaman’s feel, but this is the type of high-upside, immediate-production selection that the surging Rockets should be looking to make.

– Avinash Chauhan

20. Utah Jazz: Boogie Fland, Arkansas

Boogie is one of the best guards in this draft class. The burst off the dribble is truly something to watch while he’s on the floor. This is a guard who can create and get into the paint without a screen and show off his touch with his floater or make the reads necessary to keep advantages going. He’s sporting a 73-27 assist-to-turnover rate so far this season. Boogie is also shooting 36% from three while launching 60 of them. There aren’t many players in this draft who combine the ball handling, creativity, and self-creation upside as Boogie. This is the best available pick.

– Larry Golden

21. Brooklyn Nets: Labaron Philon, Alabama

Philon is the most “gadget-y” player in the class, and that’s why I love him in a backcourt next to earlier pick Jeremiah Fears. His game isn’t perfect – he needs to clean up his catch-and-shoot technique and have more anticipation for passing reads – but is consistently a plus across skills. He has not gotten a chance to show off his pull-up shooting as more of a connector in the Alabama system, but still can juice their offense which is nearly ten points better with him on. His positioning overall is elite, making him a threatening defender and able to clean up easy transition looks. If he can build on his scoring (he remains highly efficient at 59% true shooting), Philon could provide a backcourt panacea to endless problems.

– Matt Powers

22. Orlando Magic: Kam Jones, Marquette

Orlando is ready to contend. Their biggest need is a pull-up three-point sniper who can score and run some offense to pull defenders away from Franz and Paolo. In walks Kam Jones, arguably the best college player in the country. Averaging 20 PPG with a 4.2 A/TO his senior season while hitting 38% on six 3PA over a four-year college career sample size, Kam may provide the instant floor-spacing spark Orlando’s offense so desperately needs.

– Ryan Kaminski

23. Orlando Magic: Donnie Freeman

Donnie Freeman is a strong big wing who brings two-way impact because he can score, rebound, defend, and hit the open three. Freeman shows promising touch indicators like high FT% for positive shooting development. The highest ceiling guards on the board were Ben Saraf, who makes incredible highlight passes, and Nolan Traore, who attacks gaps with quick burst, flashes connector tendencies, hustles defensively, and has flashed the pull-up shot on rare occasions. But, neither Saraf nor Traore have been a consistent 3-point shooter. For a contending team targeting good basketball players this late in the draft who can quickly contribute and space the floor, the strategy taken was finding high-floor reserves who can fill a 6th-9th man slot in the rotation with the potential to fill in as starters when called upon. While both guards have higher potential ceilings, hoping rookies develop a skill they don’t currently show on a roster where the opportunity to do so is limited is a tough situation for them to succeed.

– Ryan Kaminski

24. Brooklyn Nets: Ben Saraf, Ulm

Ben Saraf burst onto the first-round radar with his MVP performance at the 2024 U18 Euro Championship. His most obvious strength is his size/feel: he’s measured at 6’5 without shoes and a 6’7.5 wingspan, with a certified highlight reel of passing flair and abrupt steals to boot. While the shot hasn’t quite been falling this year, Saraf has a 33% assist rate and 2.7% steal rate while leveraging his size en route to a 5.4% offensive rebound and 1.1% block rate. And he’s doing this as the unquestioned engine of a surprisingly great Ratiopharm Ulm team that’s currently 9-2 in the Eurocup. Saraf has drawn comparisons to former Ulm PG and current Long Island Net Killian Hayes, especially as a fellow lefty, but this is aesthetic bias personified: Saraf is far more turnover avoidant while showing an ability to make open catch-and-shoot threes (46% open 3P% vs 27% open 3P% for pre-draft Killian). There are clear athletic and shooting concerns with Saraf, but productive teenagers leading productive teams are a dime a dozen. Saraf could be THE tank commander for the Nets as they Dive (in the standings) for Darryn or Lose for Booz(er).

– Avinash Chauhan

25. Brooklyn Nets: Darrion Williams, Texas Tech

Willams was an easy pick for me here, even despite being older at 22 on draft day. He is extremely productive, #6 in Box Plus-Minus in the NCAA. He can shoot – a career 40% three-point shooter on 6 attempts per 100 possessions and 86% from the line on 167 attempts. But more importantly, he has shown his passing has more upside than initially displayed his prior two seasons, now up to 5.2 assists per game compared to only 2.0 turnovers. Despite not being the fleetest of feet, he contributes everywhere, getting some boards, some steals, some blocks with his high feel for the game. The Brooklyn Nets cannot pass up someone who can grease the offense from the wing (Darrion is 6’6”, I should mention) while proving through his production he can hang in athletically.

– Matt Powers

26. Dallas Mavericks: Nolan Traore, Saint-Quentin

The Mavs need blue-chip young talent. The Luka-to-Lively connection should be a permanent fixture of Mavs basketball for the next decade, but beyond that tandem, there is a real lack of youthful upside on the roster. Nolan Traore has had a rough start to his season in a surprisingly large role for a teenager with Saint Quentin, but the talent is untenable. He is a walking paint touch with NBA-level athleticism at the guard spot. His ability to defend the point of attack and create out of the pick-and-roll pairs well with Luka both on the court and while he sits. The shot will need to come around, but at this point in the draft that is a bet worth taking.

– Tyler Wilson

27. Memphis Grizzlies: Tahaad Pettiford, Auburn

Orlando desperately needs more guard creation to relieve pressure from its offensive stars. Pettiford brings that needed offensive juice. He shoots efficiently from deep range off of the bounce, breaks defenses with his speed, and finds his teammates for open shots. Point guards of his size always face a challenging climb to the NBA, but Pettiford’s advanced offensive toolkit and defensive playmaking on Orlando’s roster of giants bode well for his chances.

– Ben Pfeifer

28. Los Angeles Clippers: Nique Clifford, Colorado State

Nique Clifford feels destined to be a Clipper. He’s an older prospect who should be ready to compete on both ends of the floor from the start of training camp. He has had a larger offensive role this season, but that is not his sell as a prospect. Clifford is a grinder on both ends of the floor, an above-the-rim athlete who knows where to be and when to be there. Statistically, his projection as a shooter is a bit murky (68% from the line and  35% from three for his career), but his comfortability in the midrange and shooting over contests is encouraging. For a hard-nosed, defensive-minded team led by two high-usage stars, Clifford is an easy plug-and-play fit.

– Tyler Wilson

29. Boston Celtics: Hugo Gonzalez, Real Madrid

Gonzalez would add another defensively slanted wing into the rotation, something they’ll never complain about. He’s defended at a positive level for stretches throughout his Euroleague play this season, imposing his will as a point of attack and low-man defender. Boston will have no problems waiting for Gonzalez to tap into a passable level of offensive impact, and Gonzalez fell too far for his talent level.

– Ben Pfeifer

30. Utah Jazz: Rasheer Fleming, Saint Joseph’s

Fleming is a 6’9 forward who is showing signs of being able to stretch the floor from three making 39% on 53 attempts in 12 games. Not only is he able to shoot it, but he also has enough handle to attack closeouts and go finish at the rim with force and even finesse with his athleticism. Fleming is still only 20 years old and provides a lot of intrigue with his versatility on both sides of the ball. He currently leads his team in stocks with 41 total (22 steals, 19 blocks). Picking Fleming at the 30th pick is a win.

– Larry Golden

31. Boston Celtics: Rocco Zikarsky, Brisbane

32. Charlotte Hornets: Ryan Kalkbrenner, Creighton

33. Minnesota Timberwolves: Miles Byrd, San Diego State

34. Detroit Pistons: Will Riley, Illinois

35. Charlotte Hornets: Jacob Cofie, Virginia

36. Toronto Raptors: Chaz Lanier, Tennessee

37. Dallas Mavericks: Anthony Robinson II, Missouri

38. Brooklyn Nets: Danny Wolf, Michigan

39. Washington Wizards: Alex Karaban, UConn

40. Indiana Pacers: Flory Bidunga, Kansas

41. San Antonio Spurs: Yaxel Lendeborg, UAB

42. Chicago Bulls: Tomislav Ivisic, Illinois

43. San Antonio Spurs: Walter Clayton Jr., Florida

44. Oklahoma City Thunder: Xaivian Lee, Princeton

45. Los Angeles Lakers: Igor Milicic Jr., Tennessee

46. Golden State Warriors: Juni Mobley, Ohio State

47. Los Angeles Lakers: Adou Thiero, Arkansas

48. Cleveland Cavaliers: Bogoljub Markovic, KK Mega

49. Atlanta Hawks: Jamir Watkins, Florida State

50. Washington Wizards: Bennett Stirtz, Drake

51. Washington Wizards: Dink Pate, Mexico City

52. Charlotte Hornets: JoJo Tugler, Houston

53. Orlando Magic: Jalil Bethea, Miami

54. Dallas Mavericks: KJ Lewis, Arizona

55. Memphis Grizzlies: Tucker Devries, West Virginia

56. New York Knicks: Drake Powell, UNC

57. Houston Rockets: Max Shulga, VCU

58. Orlando Magic: Otega Oweh, Kentucky

59. Cleveland Cavaliers: Milan Momcilovic, Iowa State

The post 2025 NBA Mock Draft 1.0 appeared first on Swish Theory.

Impressive start for Kam Jones

Kam Jones is someone I’ve gone back and forth on in the past, but he’s been one of my biggest risers among returning players so far. He’s taken on a bigger load this season and in turn has been as good as any player in the country. What’s been really impressive about Kam this year is that he’s clearly not in a role best fit for who he is as a player, but he’s still been incredible in spite of that. 

Kam’s ideal usage is similar to how he played next to Tyler Kolek in previous years, as someone who can create some on the ball but also thrives as an off-ball weapon who is constantly moving and putting pressure on defenses with the threat of his shooting. This year Marquette has surrounded Kam with significantly less playmaking than in years past, and in turn he’s been really good in a lead creator role where he’s responsible for creating a ton of offense with the ball in his hands. This has caused his 3pt rate to plummet, going from taking 13.9 3 point attempers per 100 possessions the past 2 seasons down to just 8.4 3PA/100 this season.

Despite not getting to showcase one of his best skills as much this year, Kam has been better than ever. He’s averaging more than double the assists per game without increasing his turnover rate at all, giving him an outstanding AST/TO ratio of 4.4/1 so far this season. I still wouldn’t label him as a super advanced passer, but he’s quick with a good handle and doesn’t make many mistakes or bad decisions. Since prospects generally can’t control what team they go to or how they are used early on at the NBA level, this type of role malleability that Kam has shown is a really positive sign for his translation to the NBA level.

If you look over the course of his career Kam has proven that he can easily scale his usage on offense up or down depending on what his team needs. He’s extremely effective playing with limited dribbles while keeping the ball moving, but he’s also very comfortable stringing together dribble moves to create against a set defense. That combination of skills is really rare and valuable to find. Add in the fact that he has the strength and frame to compete on defense a little more than most combo guard prospects, and the package that Kam Jones brings to the table is really enticing – even for someone who will be 23 years old on draft night. He’s comfortably a first-round caliber prospect to me right now and I think you can make a strong argument for Kam to be a lottery pick in the 2025 class.  

Understanding Ace Bailey

So far this season there have been a lot of mixed opinions and commentary on Ace Bailey. He’s shown tremendous flashes as a tough shotmaker, but there have been a lot of people pointing out that he’s so reliant on these tough shots because he isn’t able to generate himself anything easier off the dribble due to a basic handle and lack of physicality. And sure, it’s definitely true that he’s struggled to create separation, rarely gets 2 feet in the paint off the dribble right now, and doesn’t do much as a playmaker. But I think it’s important to value all of the stuff that Ace does well rather than just focus purely on the areas that he isn’t currently good at, and consider how he would look in a different role.

He still has a ways to go in his development but Ace looks to me like someone we can project as a 6’9 athletic wing that is versatile defensively, contributes on the glass, can get out and run the floor, and has rare shot making ability for his size. Even if he’s never effective taking more than 2-3 dribbles at once, that’s still an incredibly valuable and useful player for any NBA team. So while I agree with most of the concerns most people have about Ace’s handle and viability as a creator, I think you can still justify ranking him near the top of the draft regardless of the on-ball limitations. One thing I’m looking to see from him the rest of the way is if he can up his 3pt volume, as his current rate of roughly 7 3PA/100 is solid but below what I’d like to see from a shooting prospect of Ace Bailey’s caliber. 

The Two Sides of Egor Demin

Egor Demin has been one of the more interesting players to monitor so far this season, as he’s looked extremely different depending on the competition he’s facing. Against low/mid-major teams such as UC Riverside and Central Arkansas, Demin has looked every bit like a top 5 pick. He’s gotten downhill off the dribble, shot it at a high level, showed some athletic juice, and looks like an incredible passer for a 6’8-6’9 guard. 

However, against high-major teams, it’s almost like watching a different player. Demin has struggled immensely to score against length and hasn’t been comfortable or confident enough to get to his spots in the same manner. There’s been a lot of instances in games against teams like Ole Miss and Providence where Demin is picking up his dribble and passing before ever creating an advantage, which has stalled the offense a bit. When he has tried to get into his bag off the dribble his handle has looked slow and sloppy. Even his passing ability has looked worse in these games, as he’s had a lot of turnovers trying to thread passing windows that just aren’t there against teams with higher levels of length and athleticism. Missing more shots against better defenses is natural and isn’t super concerning by itself over a small sample, but the way in which his creation impact has fallen off a cliff in these matchups is pretty worrisome. 

Ultimately Demin is still someone that I’m relatively high on due to the combination of size and passing as an 18-year-old and I do believe in his jumper, but it’s clear that we need to temper expectations of him as a creator until he starts to show he can produce against higher level competition. 

Other BYU Prospects

Outside of Demin, BYU has another pair of interesting potential prospects that I think are worth mentioning in Kanon Catchings and Richie Saunders. They are near polar opposites as players as Catchings is still very raw, but shows a lot of skills valuable to being an NBA forward. He’s about 6’9 with good length and covers ground at a high level on the defensive end, giving him a lot of potential versatility on that side as he fills out his frame and gets more disciplined. Catchings has also come out of the gates as a very high volume 3pt shooter (13.9 3PA/100), and while there has been mixed results the comfortability that he already has getting up jumpers as a 19-year-old forward is a very good sign. I talk about 3pt volume a lot, but it’s something I really value and in a lot of cases is better for projecting long-term shooting talent than just looking at 3pt%. Right now I think there are too many holes in Catchings’ game to be a 2025 prospect that I’m really interested in drafting, but he fits a valuable archetype as a projectable 3 + D forward and is someone to keep an eye on long term. 

Richie Saunders doesn’t share the high-end physical tools that Catchings has, but he’s just a very good basketball player who knows how to impact winning. Saunders’ game is built around really high level feel, motor, and processing speeds on both ends of the court which allows him to be a relatively mistake-free player who is constantly moving and making things happen. He’s really effective playing off the catch on offense and his combination of feel and quick hands leads to a lot of deflections on the defensive end.

Saunders is someone who both impresses a lot when I watch him and also has a really solid statistical profile. He’s averaging less than 1 turnover per game, is shooting around 40% from 3, finishes at the rim at a high clip, and has nice STL + BLK rates. The biggest swing skill for Saunders that I’ll be looking at the rest of the year is the shooting. He’s had a nice start from 3pt but prior to this year he’s been closer to an average shooter. With some of his athletic limitations he is likely going to need to be a definitively above-average shooter to be an NBA player, but if the shooting improvements are real I can see Saunders being a quality 2nd round target.

The Versatility of Labaron Philon

Coming into the year my main impression of Labaron Philon was that he was a really crafty offensive minded guard that can create offense with the ball in his hands. And while that’s certainly remained true, I’ve been impressed with how well-rounded his game is for a teenage guard prospect and his ability to contribute on both ends. He’s not an elite level defender but he’s shown the ability to stay in front of the ball and he has the length to defend both guard spots. He’s had some struggles fighting through physical screens, but otherwise he’s done a really good job of staying attached on the ball when defending in space and has already been tasked with guarding some really high-level college guards.

Offensively, Alabama has let Philon have chances with the ball in his hands but he’s also had to fit in as a role player playing next to one of the most established guards in the country in Mark Sears. Philon’s ability to fit in well with or without the ball in his hands has stood out, as he already has a lot of quality complementary skills while still being someone who can create when you put the ball in his hands. He makes quick decisions off the catch and is good at extending advantages against a compromised defense. Alabama has even used Philon as a guard-to-guard screener in actions with Sears at times, which might not apply to his NBA role but speaks to the versatility and willingness to play a role that he’s shown this year.

Labaron needs to add some strength and he hasn’t looked comfortable or been effective from beyond the arc this season, but he has good enough shooting priors and natural touch to where it’s easy to believe in the shot improving. Outside of that he already has a good foundation of skills in place. His ability to play on or off the ball while competing defensively gives him the makings of a really solid all-around guard who can fit into different roles effectively, while his ball handling and ability to break down defenses off the dribble still give him the creation upside you’re looking for in a lottery caliber guard prospect. I view Philon as a solid 1st round prospect with a chance to climb into the lottery if he shoots it better from 3 the rest of the year. 

The Adou Thiero Breakout

One of four Kentucky transfers to follow John Calipari over to Arkansas, Adou Thiero has taken a huge leap offensively this season and has been his team’s leading scorer so far. He can still be rigid with the ball in his hands and isn’t a natural handler, but he’s clearly figuring out how to leverage his athletic gifts to get to the rim and has developed the ability to make tough off-balance jumpers from 10-15 feet out. Thiero is also a pretty solid passer for an energy guy and knows how to keep the ball moving and make basic passing reads.

The glaring issue right now is the 3pt shooting, which has always been something Thiero has struggled with. He doesn’t have the smoothest release and will put up some bad misses, and is sub 30% from 3pt for his college career. He is pretty good at using his size and athleticism to cut towards the rim when teams sag off of him, but the lack of 3pt shooting is still an issue. The hope for him is that the touch he’s shown on some of the shorter mid-range shots he’s been good at this year can be expanded out farther to the perimeter. 

The main selling point for Thiero is that he’s an elite defensive prospect, equipped with a special combination of physical tools and motor. It’s not hyperbole to say that you would be hard-pressed to find a player who consistently brings as much energy on the court as Thiero. The athletic tools let him put the motor to effective use as well, as he has the verticality to make plays on the interior as a rim protector, the foot speed to guard down on the perimeter, and the strength to match up against bigger wings and forwards. 

Ultimately it would be hard to justify taking Thiero with a high draft pick right now with how bleak his 3pt shooting profile looks, but he still has more long-term upside to tap into and is someone I’d be happy to take later in the draft as is because of all the other stuff he does well. He has all the intangibles and tools you want in an athletic end-of-the-bench energy guy early on in his career, while still having a clear path to being a valuable piece if he continues in his offensive development and is ever able to even be passable as a jump shooter.

The post Early Season Scouting Notes appeared first on Swish Theory.

It’s no secret that NBA offenses have been improving year over year. We see teams consistently breaking through offensive rating records and this is in part due to offenses taking more efficient approaches to their shot diet. Teams are limiting the long midrange attempts they take while increasing the volume of closer shots at the rim and higher shot-quality three-point attempts.

The court is extremely spaced out which makes it difficult for defenses to cover ground and stay attached to their offensive counterparts. This enables players to have more space on their drives and get a more open shot at the rim, especially with how much NBA scheme is about engaging the tagger and drawing rim protectors away from the basket. Having multiple players who can create offense off of a closeout gives an offense more opportunities to attack defenses and derive these higher-quality shots within a 24-second shot clock. The culmination of these factors has resulted in 2-point shots achieving the same efficiency as 3-point shots in terms of points per possession.

With so much space to operate in today, primary creators can leverage their scoring tools and feel better than ever, and when advantage creators bring two to the ball, that means there’s a wide-open player somewhere on the court. While the value of high-level on-ball creators is undeniable, basketball is still a team sport at the end of the day. As important as it is to have great stars, supplementing an offense with better off-ball creation is how the best offensive teams continue to improve year after year.

Synergy, who tracks this for the NBA, defines spot-ups as possessions where the possession-ending event is a catch-and-shoot or catch-and-drive play. This could involve situations like catch-and-shoot threes, driving to the rim off a closeout, sidesteps or step-backs, or midrange shots created off the drive. One of the most straightforward ways to supplement NBA offenses is to consistently have five players on the court who can problem-solve against closeouts and leverage their tools in these situations.

Take a look at the roster construction of the NBA’s top offenses: at any given time, these teams consistently have at least four players on the floor who excel at dribbling, passing, and shooting at a high level. Teams like the Knicks, Celtics, and Thunder often have five players who can do this, and this truly maximizes the increased usage of spot-up possessions in the NBA.

Le’s dig into the data.

Going back to the 2017-18 NBA season, the average number of spot-up possessions throughout the league has marginally gone up yearly since then. In 2017-18, teams had 21.633 spot-up possessions per game. Now? That number has risen to 26.613 in 2023-24. That’s almost five (!) more possessions per game in seven years.

It’s not just the volume that’s increasing—over the past seven years, teams have also become more efficient at scoring on spot-up possessions.

Doing some basic regression analysis on the seven-season sample, we can see that there’s a strong positive linear correlation between spot-up volume and offensive rating.

The relationship between spot-up possessions and offensive rating can be described by the equation (line of best fit):

Average Offensive Rating=1.106(Average Spot-up Possession Per Game) + 85.53

This means that for every additional spot-up possession per game, a team’s offensive rating increases by approximately 1.106 points on average. Moreover, the R-squared value of 0.816 indicates that 81.6% of the variation in offensive rating can be attributed to the number of spot-up possessions, highlighting the strong connection between these two variables.

Logically, this aligns with the idea that having more spot-up possessions gives teams more opportunities to attack defenses and generate better offense. Essentially, spot-ups have become the fulcrum for NBA offenses in the war of attrition against NBA defenses. Framing the battle between offense and defense as a war of attrition, wouldn’t having five players who can attack off the catch in diverse ways challenge defensive personnel on a more granular level and create better scoring opportunities?

Let me take a step back and get into my nerd bag to reiterate what I mean. It’s a lot like how Team Avatar dismantled the drill attacking Ba Sing Se in Avatar: The Last Airbender (If you haven’t watched the show, please do yourself a favor and watch it immediately). Instead of relying on brute force, they exploited the machine’s structural weaknesses—Toph weakening the supports with earth bending, Sokka identifying the critical points, and Aang delivering precise strikes to bring it down. This is a lot like advantage creation and extending those advantages through closeout creation, having players who can attack off the catch in different ways allows an offense to pick apart a defense piece by piece, forcing it to collapse under pressure. (Skip to 2:04 in the video if you want a quicker explanation).

The NBA Draft…?

As much as scouting the draft is about analyzing the players, it’s just as essential to grasp the evolving trends of the league they’ll be stepping into.

For the remainder of this piece, I’ll focus on five 2025 NBA Draft prospects I value highly for their production and multi-faceted skillsets. What truly sets them apart is their ability to create offense off the catch. To thrive as a spot-up player in the modern NBA, a player must:

• possess shooting gravity to command defensive attention off the catch.
• have driving and handling tools to react to hard closeouts.
• have the feel to pass and extend the play into a higher-quality shot.

All five players in this piece have the building blocks for creating offense off of closeouts, but each brings a unique approach to the table. This diversity in how they attack off-the-catch adds layers to an offense, enabling it to exploit specific weaknesses in defensive matchups. For instance, some defenders may excel at guarding strength-based matchups but struggle with lateral quickness. A player who can attack a tilted defense with a quick first step allows the offense to capitalize on that vulnerability. In essence, variability in closeout creation amplifies the ability to target nuanced weaknesses of all five defenders on the court, giving the offense a distinct tactical advantage.

The Prospects

Now that we’ve explored the concept, let’s dive into the five potential NBA Draft prospects and examine how they leverage their unique strengths to create offense off the catch.

Burst: Jase Richardson (Michigan State) | 6’3″ Guard

The most obvious way to capitalize on a semi-tilted defense is speed: a player using their first step and acceleration to widen the gap in the offensive advantage. Jase Richardson is the perfect example of a guard who can do this, beating defenses off-the-catch with his speed in a low-usage role for Michigan State this year. Going back to AAU and his senior year of high school, Jase has had a lot of experience being in spot-up situations – his second most used offensive play type in both contexts.

His first step is good, but Richardson excels at accelerating and using sharper driving angles to create separation. His ankles and feet can take sharper angles on drives, reducing how much he curls away from the rim, and enabling tighter, shorter drive paths. Accentuated by the acceleration in his second and third steps, Richardson capitalizes on these traits to explode into his last stride on finishing attempts at the rim or get to the middle of the floor to hurt the defense with his touch.

He’s also adept at recognizing where the help is coming from and making the pass to the open man off of these drives. While defenders do give him attention from the perimeter, Richardson’s volume and efficiency as a 3-PT shooter have not been extremely high in the past. He’s shot 30% from the perimeter on a 30% three-point-rate between 17U AAU and his senior year of high school, however, it looks like Richardson’s 3-point shot is on the uptick with a three-point rate of 34.6% and 50% in a small sample of games (9 games) for Michigan State so far. As this shot improvement sustains, defenses will have to guard him tighter from the perimeter, enabling Richardson to leverage his burst even further on off-the-catch drives.

Strength: Noah Penda (Le Mans Sarthe Basket) | 6’7″ Forward

Another way to create off-the-catch is to use brute force to carve space and extend advantages. When a player has outlier strength, they can often effectively penetrate the shell of set defenses. Some players combine burst with strength and apply large amounts of force toward the rim on off-the-catch drives, making it burdensome for a tilted defense. On the flip side, some players use their strength to take a slower, methodical approach which gives them a larger window to make a play while carving space with their body. A strong processor can often use this larger window to leverage their court mapping as a passer, finding a high-quality half-court shot by extending the advantage. Noah Penda’s quick processing and strength paint a true illustration of how this creation works off the ball.

Penda wins with strength against tilted defenses, getting deep into the paint with his stocky frame and making plays off of two feet that maintain the flow of the offense. His patience shines in these reps where he often takes his time to let the play develop, attacking when the defense over helps and gives him an opening. Penda’s handle needs work but his margins on these drives are high with how much space he eats up on the court using his strength. The byproduct of his strength is that it enables him to attack set defenses off-the-catch well, reducing the threshold of how much shooting gravity he consistently needs to win on these drives. Regardless, in 14 games this year, Penda has shown he can be a good shooter off of two feet – he maintains balance and good elbow alignment in these stances which have shown up in his efficiency (37.8 FG%) and increased comfort to shoot 3-pointers (39% 3-point-rate). The issues with Penda’s shot come when movement is introduced, throwing his alignment and balance off and reducing the number of counters he can use as a shooter, whether that’s with stepbacks from the perimeter or his limited volume of off-the-dribble twos.

Change Of Direction: Xaivian Lee (Princeton) | 6’4″ Guard

Speaking of counters, an additional form of closeout creation is the art of using sleight of direction to problem-solve. The junior guard for the Princeton Tigers, Xaivian Lee is the team’s lead creator and pick-and-roll ballhandler where he slices up defenses with his elite change of direction on multiple planes. With how Princeton’s offense revolves around a philosophy of spacing the floor, constant motion, and having any of the 5 players on the court to exploit a mismatch, it can lead to a primary ball-handler like Lee playing in situations where he’s attacking closeouts consistently. Lee has great downhill pressure with his burst, but his elite trait is his combination of spatial awareness and change of direction. He has a great understanding of open space and where his limbs are relative to his body which enables him to determine easier scoring angles, throwing defenders off balance with how quickly he can change direction.

The initial idea that comes to mind with change of direction is moving the body across the transverse plane (east to west – turning and rotating), however, change of direction is also about being able to shake the defense with movement across the sagittal plane (north-south – acceleration and deceleration). Xaivian Lee is excellent at capitalizing on both of these aspects of change of direction, creating easier shots off-the-catch or collapsing multiple defenders and finding the open man on the court. Lee is also quite effective at creating separation off of step-backs and side steps, which gives him a high degree of optionality with direction. While he’s had a down year in overall efficiency with the increased offensive load in 11 games, Lee has always been a versatile shooter, especially on catch-and-shoot shots, which has meant that defenses have always had to respect his shooting gravity and react with strong closeouts. He has limitations as a finisher with his weight and strength as a 6’4 guard but with over 148 spot-up possessions in the past two years, Lee is still scoring 0.966 points per possession and 38% on his spot-up threes. Xaivian’s weight will be a major point of contention with his NBA upside, but his elite change of direction, processing, and shooting touch gives him a strong floor as an off-the-catch creator, especially next to the plethora of jumbo primary initiators in the NBA.

Functionality + Small Space Coordination: Labaron Philon (Alabama) | 6’4″ Guard

Good closeout creation can also come from players who are functional with multiple traits and extend advantages off of the dominance of their micro-skills. Alabama freshman Labaron Philon is a clear example of a player like this, maintaining possessions off-the-catch with a functional handle and his coordination in tight spaces. Philon has functional strength, burst, and touch but he wins by consistently keeping his dribble alive and navigating through a crowd.

Similar to Princeton’s offense, Alabama plays with a lot of space in the half-court with the intent to move the ball and attack off-the-catch. Alabama’s space gives a player like Philon the lane to get downhill against tilted defenses, but even when the court shrinks on the drive, he can problem-solve in those tight spaces to either find an open player or maintain the dribble long enough to find a shot for himself. The functionality Labaron Philon has in multiple areas allows him to be versatile with how he finishes inside the arc, whether that’s slamming his body into rim protectors to create separation at the rim using his strength or launching his patent floater against defenders that sag deeper into the paint. His ability to keep his handle alive gives him larger windows to process the defense and attack accordingly with his different functional traits.

Most of Philon’s issues come with the potency of his 3-point shot. Between his senior year of HS and 17U AAU, Philon has shot 35.9% on 150+ attempts but that has not translated yet in 10 games with Alabama where he’s shooting 24% on 5.4 3PA/100. Alabama’s offense is a good emulation of good NBA offenses today, and when you combine this sample with his senior year of HS and 17U AAU, he’s generating 0.912 points per possession on 149 total possessions even without an elite 3-point shot to fall back on. There’s a strong proof of concept that Philon can be an effective closeout creator and with the touch indicators in his profile, there’s a high likelihood that he can become a strong shooter off-the-catch.

Size + Fluidity: Cooper Flagg (Duke) | 6’9″ Forward

While there are plenty of other ways to describe creation off-the-catch, the last one I will be talking about in this piece is about being the ultimate tweener. The term tweener often has a negative connotation when it comes to a player, usually describing a player that is a jack of some trades and a master of none, excelling at no true position. Another way I have come around to using this term is to describe players that can be cross-match nightmares for defenses: a player that has the positional size to overpower smaller players and the fluidity to break down larger defenders.

If you’re following the NBA draft, it is unlikely you haven’t heard of the 17-year-old forward playing for Duke this year. Cooper Flagg gets his generational moniker from his premier defense in an abundance of roles and how developed his offense is for a player that young. Relative to age, even with some early efficiency issues, Flagg has excelled as a primary creator for the Blue Devils in 10 games so far this year. He’s still in the early stages of experimenting as an on-ball creator, but off the ball, Flagg has showcased that he is already a functional off-the-catch scorer.

Cooper Flagg can also be used as an example of a strength creator off of closeouts, where he’s bullied much older players with his size and functional strength, but it’s the intersection of size and fluidity that makes him so problematic for defenses to deal with. This intersection is an extension of strength creation where players can get lower than their defender and carve out space using their body as a lever. Where this differs from how a player like Penda creates off of closeouts, mass isn’t the sole factor in generating force against defenders, it’s the lever principle generating more force due to the size of the player and how low they can get on drives. Due to amazing shin angles and how low Flagg can sink his hips on drives, it extends the distance between where the input force is applied (Flagg’s shoulder against the body of his defender) and the fulcrum (Flagg’s hips) which generates even more force without requiring outlier mass on his frame. This allows Flagg to carve space regardless of the size of his defender consistently, enabling him to score inside the arc and spray passes when the defense sends help to guard him.

Flagg’s handle is still a work in progress as he can’t consistently pass off of a live dribble, but he uses jump passes to expand his passing windows and get a better mapping of the court.

Flagg’s efficiency woes at Duke have mostly come from his poor 3-point shooting, 22.2% on 6.9 3PA/100. A crucial part of closeout creation is the shooting gravity a player possesses, and while the efficiency has not been good, the volume he takes forces defenses to pay attention to those shots. Moreover, I believe he is due for some positive regression as the season progresses with how he’s shot in previous settings. 36% from the perimeter between his final year at Monteverde and 16U AAU on over 174 attempts, Flagg has been exceptional on spot-up threes where he’s shot 41.4% on 70 attempts in that same sample. As he grows stronger, the stability shooting off two feet should improve and accommodate for larger distances, enabling him to get stronger closeouts from the perimeter and leverage his traits off-the-catch.

Curtain Call

All five of these players have other skills that give them a strong baseline in the NBA, but their most formidable trait is how they create off of closeouts in different ways. Spot-ups are the fulcrum of NBA offenses because the quality, variability, and volume of this play type can often be the difference in the balance of an offense winning or losing the possession battle. Having a team with five players like this on the court who can attack the defense in varied ways captures the greatest strength of an elite offense: the constant exploitation of mismatches to create advantages on each touch a player gets within a team possession.

Stay tuned for my upcoming piece on the 2025 NBA Draft cycle, a companion article that will explore the other side of the NBA spectrum!

The post Closeout Creation: The Fulcrum Of NBA Offenses appeared first on Swish Theory.

Milan Momcilovic’s absence from all mainstream mock drafts and boards perplexes me. After a freshman year where the 6’8 forward proved himself an elite shotmaker, he’s positioned well to make a run at the 2025 draft for an elite Iowa State team.

The shotmaking numbers are gaudy — 36.1% from three on 8.8 attempts per 100, a 49.9 three-point attempt rate, 80.9% on free-throws and 45.6% (68-149) on long two-pointers. The only other 6’8+ freshman to match Momcilovic’s shooting production was Lauri Markkanen.

The eye test reflects these numbers, as Momcilovic sprints off of movement from NBA range, pulls up off of the dribble and feathers in Dirk-inspired fadeaways in the intermediate. Very few shooters his height and age compare to Momcilovic. That alone is worth something in an NBA where teams regard shooting so highly.

Momcilovic’s athletic translation will be the primary question for his NBA outlook. He’s fairly slow on both ends without much explosion or bend, evidenced by his poor athletic indicators (1.0% steal rate, 20.1 free-throw rate, zero dunks). We rarely see players with physical indicators this poor make the NBA.

Despite those major problems, Momcilovic defends at a positive level in college. His footspeed might limit his effectiveness on the perimeter at the next level, but he’s a stellar team defender who always positions himself to close gaps and help at the basket. That same feel manifests on offense, as Momcilovic is an effective secondary playmaker off of his shooting gravity.

We shouldn’t let imperfect statistical history blind us to outlier talent, and that’s what Milan Monmcilovic’s shotmaking is. I’ve never scouted a freshman prospect with these kind of extreme, outlier strengths and weaknesses. I’m willing to bet on Momcilovic’s unique traits and hope for physical development as his body matures, but he’ll be a fascinating case to track throughout the season.

Matt Powers – Xaivian Lee, Princeton

Xaivian Lee needs to improve to become an NBA player, and perhaps significantly so. This is not ideal for a rising junior in a minor conference, but I believe there are reasons for trusting Lee to do just that.

First, Lee is young for his grade, as only 20 years old. This is important as he is still on the steep side of the aging curve, if not as steep as ages 18 to 19 or 19 to 20. This is also important because Lee’s biggest flaw, without a doubt, is being only 165 pounds at most recent measurement.

Adding that weight will elevate the stellar craft and technique we’ve already seen Lee display on a regular basis. It’s good he’s in the Ivy league where he has room to fully experiment despite the lack of weight, as he’s able to create large margins in which to operate with his elite shiftiness.

Lee had more drives than any of the 2023 drafted NCAA guards. While this is surely aided tremendously by the poor competition, I can defend the stat still in a few ways. 1.) The degree of outperformance, 67% higher than his peers’ averages, 2.) His performance kept up against higher comp. In fact, he even played better inside the arc (50% -> 55% from two) and nearly led the conference in RAPM versus top 100 competition. 3.) He tested very well at the G League Elite Camp, taller than expected (6’2.75” without shoes, acceptable for a point guard), among the best at agility testing and showing off a surprising 36.5” max vertical.

Now, let’s get to the actual basketball. Lee is a dribble-pass-shoot guard who also blocked more shots (14, a lot for 6’2.75”) than all of Isaiah Collier, Jared McCain, Rob Dillingham and KJ Simpson combined. He plays more physically than your everyday slight guard, also excelling on the defensive glass where he was second on the team in rebounds. He seems closer to a very good shooter than an elite one, with 34% from three, 80% from the line, 34% from midrange and 62% at the rim splits. But every one of those is improved from the year before, and, again, there is reason to believe he will grow beyond. The rim finishing in particular is very promising, in the 82nd percentile for layup efficiency on 11 layup attempts per 100 possessions.

Additionally, Lee’s technique is very strong. He is a weapon both on and off ball due to masterclasses (for age) of timing, footwork, deception, hand movements. His top play types showcase that, being above average efficiency in the following actions: spot up (119 possessions), PNR handler (88), handoffs (66), isolation (62), transition (55), cut (30). That’s a healthy diet you can plug and play into any offensive style. This play style flexibility is only enhanced by his sense of experimentation.

Technique, combined with age, is latent value. It is the key building block to development (link Cason Wallace piece) that Lee can rely upon time and again. Don’t be surprised if he looks like a first round pick come December.

Beyond the RK – Jeremy Roach, Baylor

Transferring from Duke with an extra year of eligibility granted by the NCAA to players who competed during the COVID-19 pandemic season, new Baylor guard Jeremy Roach knows how to handle the pressure when the lights shine brightest. With the Blue Devils, Roach started 83% of his 130 games over four seasons, advancing to a Final Four, an Elite Eight, and the 2nd round in 3 March Madness appearances, bringing the ying in experience to the Baylor backcourt to the yang of the sensational freshman walking onto campus for the first time in VJ Edgecome. With VJ expected to fly around the court as a north-south downhill force of nature out of the gates, what can Baylor fans expect from the other newcomer guard joining the squad this season?

Jeremy Roach, 6’1”, fits the strong mold of Baylor Guard Past with good two-way instincts to make winning plays on defense while staying on attack mode on offense with an efficient all-around game and good feel for running pick-and-roll and ISO sets to create open looks for himself and teammates. Jeremy uses tight ball control handles and sound quick burst body control to beat his initial defender, rise and fire for a jumper, or drive into the paint for a finish at the rim or kickout to the 3pt line. Jeremy’s lethal floater comes in handy as a deadly weapon to keep drop defenses honest when driving at the rim, using mean stop-start hesitation dribble moves, sound hop step footwork, and clean bump-and-finishing packages in the paint to draw AND1 fouls. When Roach catches a rhythm pulling up for tough elbow jumpers and 3pt shots off the dribble, he becomes hard to contain for any defense he faces.

Roach shows effort on the defensive end taking charges, reading passing lanes to jump gaps and use quick hands for deflections, and not giving up on plays by contesting shots from behind even after being beat on the perimeter. Forcing turnovers and flipping fast breaks on their head creates quick and easy 4pt swings for his team. Jeremy will lift his team for entire stretches as everyone feels his presence in every possession on both sides of the floor. In a close win over Xavier on Nov 25, 2022, Jeremy Roach took over in the clutch for Duke as the game slowed down; quieting the crowd at every turn; dominating as on-ball scoring creator; initiating P&R variations with two screeners in Horns and Double-Drag; scoring at all three levels from all over the floor; drilling tough shot after tough shot; showing supreme decision-making feel.

Roach has improved his efficiency across the board in his time in college, nearly cutting his turnover percentage in half over a four year span, with impressive development since his sophomore season, rising from a 32% 3pt shooter in Year 2 to a 43% 3pt shooter on the same number of attempts in Year 4. His overall impact has risen from 0-1 BPM in his first two years to 3.1 BPM as a junior and 7.2 BPM as a senior, with a huge jump on the offensive side to 4.5 OBPM, most likely due to increasing overall efficiency, reducing turnovers, and getting to the line more often.

In his 2023-24 season at Duke, Roach took 32% of his shots at the rim, converting 58% of his 113 FGA in that range. Able to get his shot off from anywhere on the floor, Jeremy spreads his shot attempts out evenly with 33% being 2pt jumpers (116 FGA) and 36% coming from beyond the arc. (126 3PA) Shooting 84% FT% at the line, 43% 3P% from deep, and 59% TS% as a scorer, Roach brings efficient scoring versatility.

Between his smooth floater, efficient shooting at the line and from beyond the arc, defensive instincts, offensive feel, and overall efficient scoring versatility, Jeremy Roach shows many promising touch indicators for future scoring and shooting development while flashing potential two-way impact that could translate to his upcoming final season in college and help him pave a path to the next level, the NBA.

Roshan Potluri – Collin Murray-Boyles, South Carolina

I can understand, you’re probably wondering, “I’ve seen him on a couple of mainstream boards where he’s in the late lottery range. Why is Collin Murray-Boyles in a roundtable on the most underrated returners for the 2025 draft class?” Even with the pre-season hype around the sophomore, I believe he is underrated because he should firmly be in the discussion in the top 5 of the 2025 NBA Draft. Let’s take a look at why:

Murray-Boyles had an extremely productive season in his first year with the South Carolina Gamecocks, especially for someone who will be 20.03 on draft day: mere months older than incoming freshmen V.J. Edgecombe and Kon Knueppel. Statistically, the production was eye-popping. He was only involved in 45.7% of his team’s possessions when he was on the floor, yet he posted a BPM of +9.5 and a RAPM of +6.1 which are high for a freshman. Standing at 6’7″, he is undersized as a center. Despite this, he produced a 61.6 TS%, 12.0 OREB%, 17.5 DREB%, 17.1 AST%, and over 20 dunks for the season. Murray-Boyles may be undersized, but he functionally produced on the court to a degree that compares to other high-profile 7-foot freshmen like Joel Embiid, Deandre Ayton, Evan Mobley, and Karl Anthony Towns.

Another example of his statistical excellence: the only freshmen since 2008 to ever record above a 5 BPM, 60 TS%, 15 DREB%, 10 AST%, 2 STL%, and 20 dunks are Joel Embiid, Zion Williamson, and Collin Murray-Boyles.

While the production speaks for itself, what does Collin Murray-Boyles truly excel at and why is that worth a potential top 5 selection? The answer lies in his dominant processing on both sides of the ball.

With his feel, high-level strength, balance, and hand-eye coordination, Murray-Boyles brings tenacious defense at the rim and guarding out in space. He’s able to take away a ballhandler’s breathing space with his combination of stifling length, strength, and ground coverage. Murray-Boyles excels as a rim protector, leveraging his massive standing reach and outstanding hand-eye coordination to effortlessly erase shots at the rim. Whether it’s as the primary anchor or rotating over from the weak side, his presence as the rim is undeniable.

The quick decision-making is apparent on the offensive side of the ball as well. He’s able to spray passes to find advantage situations whether it is out of post-ups or DHOs. Oftentimes, he’s able to open up new scoring opportunities just due to the incredible speed and placement that he delivers these passes with. Murray-Boyles does have his flaws with his shot and his size as a big but he has the pathways to become more of a ballhandler and scale as a forward offensively. His potential as a ballhandler is evident in the high school film, although he’s more reliant on getting to his left as a driver. He struggles with ball control and pick-up points when using his right, but his exceptional strength allows him to carve space on drives, compensating when his handle falls short.

The major question with Murray-Boyles’ NBA projection is his shot. I understand the hesitancy, as he’s only shot five 3’s and 67.4% from the charity stripe in his freshman year. While these numbers are poor, from a projection standpoint Murray-Boyles has improved on his touch numbers year over year and has had more shooting volume in his high school career. For context, he shot 51% from the line at Adidas 3SSB in 2022, 63.2% at Wasatch Academy his senior year, and now in college, that number has risen to 67.4%. He shows great touch on non-rim 2 attempts as well, shooting 41.3% with the Gamecocks. The high school and AAU sample only supplements this idea, shooting 53.5% on 28 runners and hooks the year before college. On tape, there’s good energy transfer and fluidity in the mechanics of his face-up jumpers which is a wide majority of his shooting sample in high school. For a player that’s considered a non-shooting big, Murray-Boyles has taken a moderate number of midrange jumpers between his senior year of high school and final year of AAU shooting 50% inside the arc on 22 attempts.

The complete lack of these jumpers within and beyond the arc at South Carolina can be attributed to his role as a screen and roll big. Murray-Boyles needs to work on improving his volume and touch further, but the growth over the past couple of years in tandem with his impressive hand-eye coordination gives me confidence that he can get to a respectable level by the end of his rookie scale deal in the NBA. 

Overall, Murray-Boyles can be an upper-echelon defender in the NBA with his physical traits and feel, showing signs even as an 18-year-old where he would orchestrate South Carolina’s entire defense from the backline. With his sophomore year at South Carolina, his draft stock will be determined by how his budding offensive skills improve, but with what he’s done so far and his feel for the game, I have no reason to believe he can’t reach those heights in the 2025 NBA Draft.

Larry Golden – Kam Jones, Marquette

In the NBA, the game forever evolves due to teams changing playstyles and other teams trying to copy what the successful teams are doing. In order for teams to meet their most potential they must find players to perform well in different roles pertaining to their team. The key is finding players in the draft that can come in and fit right into certain roles and maybe their skill level allows for a multitude of roles. Kam jones is a player in this upcoming draft that I believe can come into the NBA and make things happen because of his utility both on the ball and off.

Last season Kam Jones shot 39.9% from beyond the arc on 239 attempts and 109 of those were off the catch making those at 39.4% clip. His shooting is what will make his life easier in the league while drawing closeouts and getting two-feet in the painted area. When watching Jones play he has a good feel for making the next right connective passing read. When the defense failed to make a rotation or if the rotator was a bit late, Jones made them pay finishing at the rim at a 67% clip. I was a little underwhelmed with his percentage from the mid range area(, but in the nba threes and layups are the goal and he made both of those at a great rate.

Secondary ballhander is the role I really see for Jones at the NBA level who can take on some pick and roll reps on the second side of the floor. Jones was used in pick and roll 43% of his usage and ranked in the 85th percentile. His combination of handle and size for the position allows for him to see the floor a bit better and the handle is tight enough to squeeze through congested spots on the floor.

AJ Carter – Clifford Omoruyi, Alabama

Clifford Omoruyi has been well established as one of the top defensive players in college basketball, anchoring a Rutgers defense that has been top 25 in the country each of the past two years before transferring to Alabama this offseason for his 5th year of college. He’s a classic backline rim protector with good length (6’9 barefoot, 7’6 wingspan), athleticism, and a lean but well built frame that can hold up against physicality. 

Omoruyi uses these physical tools to dominate around the rim defensively, finishing 3rd in the country in block percentage at 12.7% last season (via KenPom). He can occasionally get himself in foul trouble but is for the most part fundamentally sound defensively, prioritizing being in the right position over chasing blocks. Omoruyi is also a very capable P&R defender, having both backline rim protection ability with enough agility to cover ground when asked to play more aggressively. He isn’t what you would classify as a “switch big” but generally holds up well enough when defending in space to not get exploited and has shown flashes defending on an island against smaller guards. Omoruyi is also capable of finishing off possessions as a defensive rebounder, posting a strong DRB% of 23.7% for his college career. 

As good as he is defensively, Cliff’s lack of versatility on the offensive end is what has prevented him from getting serious hype as a draft prospect thus far. He can score around the rim at an adequate level, but doesn’t offer much outside of that. He isn’t a threat to score outside the paint and lacks touch on floaters or push shots. Omoruyi also has a paltry 0.4 AST/TO ratio for his career, and hasn’t really shown any progress in that department across his 4 years in college. It’s worth noting that Rutgers has been mostly abysmal offensively for Omoruyi’s career there, and play finishing centers like him are particularly context dependent, often needing to play off of strong creators to be effective – something Rutgers has sorely lacked. 

There’s a little room for hope that Cliff can show more progress playing in what should easily be the best offensive context of his career at Alabama this season, but for the most part we already know what he is – and there’s nothing wrong with that. The offensive limitations put a cap on the ceiling of what type of NBA prospect he can be, but he’s such a good defensive anchor that the bar he has to reach on the other end is pretty low. With just a little bit of improvement to his skillset you can see the pathway to him being a useful NBA backup center, making Cliff Omoruyi someone worth monitoring as a prospect this season. 

Tyler Wilson – KJ Lewis, Arizona

KJ Lewis is a slashing guard built for playoff basketball. In an NBA that seems to grow taller and shoot better with every summer, the words “slashing guard” and “playoff basketball” don’t feel like they belong in the same sentence. Slashing guard? You couldn’t find a wing who can shoot? Range, in both wingspan and scoring threat, has become the conventional draft ethos of the modern day. With that said, might I interest you in a Strong Safety instead?

The sell with KJ begins at his defensive impact. He is listed at 6’4 210 and plays like a moving fire hydrant. There is a Naismithian quality to his game that is undeniable, an intersection of strength and agility that resembles an NFL defensive back more than a two guard. He is able to stand up forwards in the post while smothering smaller guards on the perimeter. The ability to remain strong while sliding around the court is a skill in itself. His feel as a help defender and comfortability in switches was great. Outside of occasional bouts with over-physicality, it was hard to come away with anything substantively negative to say on the defensive side of the ball. KJ was an incredibly effective defensive player as a freshman, in a high major conference, at 19 years old.

In recent years, the going has gotten tough in the National Basketball Association for defense-first guards. The threshold of NBA quality offense has grown so incredibly high that it has become nearly impossible to survive if you are not a credible threat to score the basketball. Lewis’ freshman year usage rate of 16.4 is incredibly low for a potential NBA prospect, particularly a guard. The fact he was a relative non-threat from beyond the arc (34% on 3.4 attempts per 100) does not help matters. The path towards NBA minutes as a low usage non-shooting shooting guard is incredibly thin.

While Lewis did not threaten defenses as a shooter last year at Arizona, there is genuine reason for optimism. He shot 79% from the line in college and despite uninspiring numbers around the rim and in the midrange, his tape going back to Duncanville and the 3SSB circuit shows real touch around the rim with flashes of a functional jumper off the dribble. Shot development is an imperfect and unpredictable science, but the foundation is there for steady growth over time.

As a slasher, Lewis’ athleticism shines yet again with the ability to blow by defenders, take bumps and finish through contact. With an unrefined handle, he was best attacking in a straight line or out of an advantage as a freshman, but his coordination and athleticism allow for a long developmental runway as a creator. KJ was a wrecking ball downhill in high school, and on an Arizona roster that lost nearly all of their starters (sans the immortal Caleb Love) there should be more room for him to explore the studio space as a driver. 

What makes KJ Lewis such an intriguing prospect is his combination of athleticism and feel. That, my friends, buried at the very end of my monologue, is the key to Lewis’ pitch as a prospect. He anticipates actions on defense, acts with decisiveness, takes care of the ball, and reads the floor well as a passer, all while being the best athlete on the court. He is versatile not only in his physical capabilities, but his ability to make quick decisions while playing a physically versatile role. As a freshman, we saw that manifest primarily on the defensive end of the floor, but it is exactly what makes the gamble on his offensive upside so appealing. 

Ahmed Jama – Nique Clifford, Colorado State

Despite a late cycle surge onto draft boards this past cycle, 6’6 Colorado State wing Nique Clifford surprised many by returning to school for his 5th and final season of college basketball. Riding the wave of an impressive tournament showing, Clifford was given as good a chance as any veteran college player to work his way into serious draft consideration in a draft class mired in uncertainty. In an attempt to reverse engineer Clifford’s decision to return in lieu of remaining in the draft, I referenced Barttorvik.com to find statistical comparisons to Clifford’s previous season. In Bart Torvik’s 17 season database, Clifford is one of three players to fulfill the statistical query of Defensive Rebounding% ≥ 20; Assist/Turnover Ratio ≥ 1.5; Block % ≥ 2; Steal % ≥ 2; 3PA/100 Possessions ≥ 5; Dunks made ≥ 20. The other two players being TCU’s (now Oklahoma City Thunder) Kenrich Williams and former New Mexico State Aggie Johnny McCants. Unsurprisingly all three players performed nebulous roles, as undersized bigs. The statistical company Clifford keeps is pertinent to his decision to return, because in my opinion, Clifford and his camp recognized unorthodoxy, in NBA decision maker’s eyes, is synonymous with risk. Whether or not this calculation was correct, returning to college has positioned Clifford as one of the best prospects in the country this season. 

Clifford’s unique brand of production is, in my opinion, a byproduct of his high school career, where he played as an undersized big. Despite Clifford measuring at only an 8’6 standing reach at the NBA Combine, the same as 2024 draft entrees Stephon Castle and AJ Johnson, Clifford ranked 45th in the country in defensive rebounding rate. This relentlessness on the glass was made possible by Clifford’s dynamic leaping ability, and more specifically his minimal load time on jumps. Clifford’s exceptional leaping ability, paired with his timing crashing the glass, allows him to contribute as a rebounder in a way virtually no other players his size are. While Clifford’s offensive rebounding rate of 4.5% is comparatively underwhelming, I believe this is a byproduct of Colorado State’s emphasis on limiting opponent transition opportunities at the cost of offensive rebounds. While they ranked 120th in defensive rebounding rate in the country, Colorado State was 302nd in offensive rebounding rate. Clifford’s internal clock as a rebounder manifests as a defender as well, where he’s able to fill a variety of roles, from hounding smaller players at the point-of-attack, chasing shooters off off-ball screens, and making long rotations as a backline defender and providing supplementary rim protection. 

As much confidence as Clifford’s unique basketball background and athletic traits give me, ultimately for a player his size to succeed in the NBA his shot will need to develop into a reliable skill. Clifford logged a pedestrian (relative to his position) 6 3PA/100 possessions this past season. However, his underlying shooting numbers provide reason for optimism. On 82 catch-and-shoot 3 attempts Clifford shot 41.5%, and his solid 38% on pull-up two’s only further substantiates Clifford’s potential as a reliable floor-spacer. Additionally, Colorado State’s playstyle elucidates Clifford’s underwhelming 3-point volume. As effective as Colorado State’s offense was with its given talent (61st in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency, per Bart torvik), its identity was almost entirely defined by motion heavy Princeton concepts, and this scheme in my opinion came at the cost of spot-up 3 attempts. Playing in almost exclusively 5-out alignments, a vacated paint enabled CSU to finish as perhaps the best cutting team in the country (95th percentile in cutting volume and 99th percentile in cutting efficiency per Synergy). Comparatively Colorado State finished in the 69th percentile in catch-and-shoot frequency. What makes Princeton offenses so reliable is how their concepts allow teams to generate efficient offense often in lieu of traditional ‘advantage creator’, however this emphasis on movement and a ‘creation by committee’ approach can come at the cost of clean catch-and-shoot attempts. And when Clifford’s role specifically is taken into consideration, he often is CSU’s most consistent line-breaking threat as a cutter and ballhandler. 

All in all, Clifford’s previous production, when contextualized with his basketball past and current college role, paint the picture of a player capable of rapidly calibrating his game to fit an NBA role. With Colorado State graduating their top scorer and highest usage player from this past season, Isaiah Stevens, Nique Clifford is poised to cement himself as a need-to-know prospect in the 2025 draft class. 

Stewart Zahn – Grant Nelson, Alabama

Arriving in Alabama via transfer last season, Grant Nelson carried a fair amount of hype with him from NDSU, where he was not only highly productive but also showcased alluring skill and athleticism. With a talented cast of teammates in Tuscaloosa, Nelson took on an entirely different role with the Tide, a role that only further highlighted his versatility. 

No longer a Bison and one of the immediate primary offensive options, Nelson adapted very well to a more supplementary role with Alabama (to be fair, a very well-spaced context). The profile of Nelson’s individual scoring opportunities drastically changed, with his post-up and isolation frequencies slashed (21.1% of opportunities to 5.3%, and 15.6% to almost nothing – 2.2% respectively). To his credit, Grant took it in stride and committed to his role, shifting his focus onto the more off-ball aspects of his position, such as spot-ups, screening/rolling, cuts and transition. In a fast-paced environment like Alabama, Nelson nearly doubled his transition frequency, and Coach Nate Oats even allowed him to run some PnR’s and DHO’s throughout the season. The ball-handling and passing both seem to clear his positional thresholds. Playing large amounts of minutes at center, while not his traditional position, Nelson displayed great technique as a roller. His rolls were fluid, his slips were quick and timely, and his PnP game was a crucial element to Alabama’s patented play-style and spacing. All of this is to say that Nelson’s game appears to have great malleability to provide whatever a team may need from their forward. 

Nelson’s efficiency in most play-types is quite good, with one exception: the 3-point shot. Even as a career 75% free throw shooter (81% last season) with a decent stroke, Nelson has yet to solidify himself as threatening perimeter shooter. Capable, with just enough volume to be respected, Nelson still has plenty of work to do to iron out his shot and turn it into a real weapon. Attacking closeouts is definitely in his wheelhouse as a ball-handler, and a proficient or even average shot from the outside would really open up the court to his driving ability. He even dabbled in some pull-up shooting out of PnR’s, and while the results weren’t great, he would make the correct read to shoot it, and that was encouraging to see.

Defensively, Nelson again was playing out of position for much of the year. It was necessary for Alabama to have their most potent offensive lineup, and Grant held his own on the other end. Undersized as an NBA center (and not what he will be asked to do at the next level), Nelson did exhibit pretty good understanding of positioning himself in relation to the roller. When covering PnP’s, Nelson’s mobility allowed him to get out to the perimeter for worthwhile contests. As the primary rim protector a lot of the time, the awareness, anticipation and reactivity Nelson demonstrated was pretty compelling, and he would use his length and timing to finish the job with a block. That should translate well to his more suitable position as a forward and thus a weakside rim protector, potentially contributing with some additional opposition at the rim. Also a serviceable perimeter defender for his position, Nelson checks a lot of boxes defensively. On top of all that, Grant was hard-nosed as a rebounder all year, and he earned himself Coach Oat’s Hard-Hat award ten times, tied for the most on the team. 

While his stats reflect a quieter year than at NDSU, Nelson proved himself a multi-faceted player at Alabama, with room to improve particularly as a shooter, which would have an amplified effect on the rest of his game. He will be striving to validate last season, and he will have the chance to encompass and maybe even shed the “underrated”  tag throughout the Draft cycle.

Avinash Chauhan – Motiejus Krivas, Arizona

Motiejus Krivas is a big dude with some serious skill. It doesn’t take much imagination to picture him dominating college basketball in the near future.

Let’s start with the bad: Krivas could very well be at the horrific intersection of non-shooting poor finisher and limited defensive upside. He shot a middling 58% at the rim last year, and more worryingly, lineups with Krivas at the 5 consistently scored worse at the rim than with the starter, Oumar Ballo. Arizona shot 4% worse at the rim with Krivas on the floor, and of Arizona’s 5 most common lineups, the two with Krivas fared by far the worst at the rim. Part of this swing is that he was backing up a pretty monstrous rim finisher in Ballo, but it’s pretty inexcusable that Arizona shot just 54% at the rim with Krivas on the floor. He may also appear to be low feel, averaging a whopping 6.1 fouls per 40 with a measly 4% assist rate, he took zero threes on the season, and perhaps worst of all, he garnered just a 3.4% block rate in 20 conference games. If you’re a non-spacer who does not contribute to positive rim scoring, you foul incessantly, and you’re unable to effectively pass or shoot OR protect the rim, what exactly are you doing on the floor?

But while we have 439 minutes of Krivas’s NCAA sample, we also have a 637 minute sample at FIBA U19/U18 Euros/U20 Euros, and 1000 minutes playing for Lithuania’s Zalgiris. Krivas wasn’t terrible in NCAA by any stretch, with a respectable 3.4 BPM in 36 games and an overall 4.5 lineup net rating across all competition. But Krivas was genuinely ridiculous in a number of important international events, and it would be foolish to throw away all the data we have for a low minutes NCAA single season sample.

Let’s talk about the shooting. It sounds pretty insane to say this about a guy who attempted ZERO threes in the NCAA season, but Krivas seems like a decent bet to get some threes up this year. First off, Krivas actually has a decent track record of 3P shooting volume in the past: he’s averaging about 1 3PA/40 across 28 FIBA games, and he put up 61 threes across his final two seasons in Lithuania. Now for the fun stuff: Krivas is a ridiculously good free throw shooter with notable volume (especially considering he is a FT drawing machine). He shot 73% FT in his final season in Lithuania (139/191), 70% at FIBA (78/112), and he’s coming off a 78% FT season at Arizona (49/63). What’s more impressive is that Krivas has progressively become a bit of a touch god around the rim, with a strong diet of runners and hooks sprinkled throughout heavy post up usage. Across his FIBA U20 tourney this summer + Arizona, a whopping 17% of his total shots have come on hooks, making them on a staggering 58% (18/31). Bart has him at 13/29 on long 2s at Arizona.

To reiterate, we’re talking about a 7’2 mf who was putting up 3s in Europe as a teenager, is pushing the high 70s FT on extremely great volume, and has the proclivity to take and make hooks at a high rate. And he’s still technically a teenager. Again, it’s never a great idea to bet on a guy who literally took no 3s in an NCAA season. But shooting dev seems uniquely feasible for this particular case.

Personally, I don’t care too much if he shoots or not, since he’s also an absolutely insane rebounder. Krivas is coming off a 14.7% OREB/22.8% DREB season in NCAA: there have been only 9 drafted players since 2008 to match those numbers across their career. It gets crazier: Krivas averages the most rebounds per 40 in the TWENTY EIGHT YEAR HISTORY of the U18 Euros (10+ mpg). His 21.8 rebounds per 40 is well ahead of 2nd place Enes Freedom (20.2), with Usman Garuba (18.6) and Marc Gasol (17.7) not too far behind. Again, pretty much every good Euro prospect has played in the U18 Euros, including so many notable bigs since 1996. It is an absolutely huge deal that he is the most productive rebounder on a minute basis in the entirety of available data for this tournament. 

He has similarly crushed the U20 Euros and Lithuania Pro League: he put up an unreal 19% OREB and 28% DREB across 48 games of LKL+NKL. He isn’t a Zach Edey/DeJuan Blair level rebounding prospect given the lower comp level, but Krivas really isn’t THAT far off. Throw on his massive 7’5 wingspan, and Krivas is pretty easily the best rebounding prospect in the class if he declares, and should be one of the best rebounders in the league from day 1.

Rebounding is often a measure of physicality, but in Krivas’ case, I think it’s a unique look at his unreal anticipation and impressive feel for the game. Again, his 4.2% assist/1.4% steal/6.1 FC may seem horrifying, but make no mistake: Krivas has a legitimately great feel for the game. This is a guy who has shown a history of racking up steals at a pretty great rate for his size: across ~ 100 Lithuanian league games, he was above 2% steal. He averaged ~ 1.5 steals/40 across all FIBA tourneys. Much of this is just being at the right place at the time: he’s able to anticipate reads through gaps and use his length to make easy pickoffs. But he’s also a legit great passer. He can make pretty solid reads out of the post, though he can be overambitious and thereby turnover prone (>17% TO in 100 NKL/LKL games).

But his passing feel is especially demonstrated through his FIBA numbers. Despite a middling 0.7 A:TO in FIBA and 4% assist rate in NCAA, Krivas has put up 12.5% assist, 20.4% assist, and 14.2% assist in his last 3 FIBA stretches. And before you question the value of FIBA Euros in ascertaining playmaking upside, consider an all time passing development case in Domantas Sabonis, who was a complete non passer in all NCAA and European pro league games but had a 7 game stretch where he was a productive primary initiator for Lithuania’s FIBA U18 team. With a consistent steal and assist track record, coupled with his sheer size and length, Krivas has a pretty cool combination of tools and feel that could lead to seemingly unexpected offensive development.

The list of strengths is getting a bit ridiculous. This is a dude who can rebound at an Edey-lite level, potentially shoot, generate steals and assists, and has one of the strongest FIBA production profiles ever. After all, he was 35 PER at U18 Euros, 35 PER at U20 Euros (led tourney), and 37.6 PER at U20 Euros (led tourney). 

It’s probably important to reiterate that Mr. Krivas is a 7’2 individual with a giant 7’5 WS. I once wrote about the history of underclassmen who measured at the NBA combine with a WS over 7’4 WS. It is an insane list with an insane hit rate. Oh, and he might sound like an uber slow Euro big with painful verticality and terrible lateral movement. Well the verticality is probably true, but Krivas legitimately moves very well. In fact, he measured at 3.55 s for the sprint and 11.88 for the agility drill, which was significantly better than his peer Aday Mara (4.04 and 12.81, respectively) and somewhat comparable to Pacome Dadiet (3.47 and 12.29) and Salaun (3.63 and 11.84). This is obviously a tongue in cheek comparison, since Dadiet and Salaun are definitely faster and prolly just didn’t know how to game the system effectively (hence their massive leaps at the combine), but their relative closeness to Krivas still underscores how well he can move. With his incredible wingspan, solid movement for size, and strong feel (adept steal and pass generator), Krivas theoretically shouldn’t be much of a defensive liability. In fact, most of his positive net rating was via defense: Arizona’s defense was 6.4 points better/100 possessions with Krivas on the court, and 7.7 p/100 against t100 comp. Much of this was through his rebounding goodness: opposing teams rebounded 3.3% worse and shot 3% worse at the rim with Krivas on the court. 

Herein lies the issue: Krivas had an undeniably positive effect on defense this past year, but most of that came from mitigating second chance points and less from actually blocking shots. Despite his 7’5 WS, he measured with a paltry 22 inch standing vert that would be amongst the lowest in the NBA. He clocked a pedestrian 12.9% HC dunk rate, and had just a 4% block rate this year. He’s definitely a physical player capable of backing down guys in the post en route to a heavy postup diet, and he’s put up ~ 50 FTr in nearly every context; but the lack of verticality is somewhat of a stifler. I think it’s fair to project a bit of improvement: he was hovering above 6% block in Lithuania, and he’s averaged a whopping 4 blocks per 40 (~10% block) across 14 FIBA games in the last two years. I am well aware that the NCAA and NBA are far different than FIBA tourneys (where bigs are much more prone to dominate given the differential rules) and Lithuania (LKL and NKL have “grown men” but its a pretty weak league generally). It’s not a 1:1 comparison, but is it not fair to project some improvements for one of the most productive youth FIBA careers we’ve ever seen?

Not every latent strength has to actualize for Krivas to return legit NBA value. European bigs tend to be a bit of a mystery box, even when we have significant track records for them in various youth simulacrums. The common thread does seem to be rebounding: from Sabonis, Mirotic, and Gasol to Freedom, Zubac, and Vucevic, there are tons of elite rebounding/productive Euro centers that found a role (because of their feel, productivity, and outlier rebounding). We know Krivas is productive, we know he’s going to bring immediate offensive and defensive value with his rebounding, and we know that he has exceptional length, agility, and feel for position. But what’s stopping him from reaching the path of these European contemporaries?  Is path to being a quasi-Vucevic possible for Krivas, especially since Vuc has a similar WS? Can he be a Nikola Mirotic type? If he stays in school a year or two more, can he emerge as a virtuoso passer on par with Sabonis and Gasol? Or will he never really put it together and have a Garuba type career? 

I think there’s some very conceivable flaws with Krivas, some that he may never be able to overcome. But I think we’re also completely undermining a sneaky upside tail, one that may be particularly manifestable given the departure of starter Oumar Ballo. 7’5 wingspans do not grow on trees, nor do prospects with long ass wingspans have the feel or outlier rebounding or historic production profile of Krivas. One of the greatest producers in FIBA youth history is potentially eligible for the draft, and it’s about time he’s given his due credit.

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Last season, NBA scouts regularly made their way to the small town of Vechta, Lower Saxony, to observe the young, big man. Johann Grünloh, still a student at the time and in his first BBL year, was an important part of the 6th best defense in the league (https://x.com/veilchenfeuer/status/1789723580818698270/photo/1) and immediately one of the better rim protectors in the league.

In addition, Grünloh played a few games for the second team of Rasta Vechta and in the JBBL (highest youth division in germany) playoffs to fulfill the dream of a German championship with his team. This season, he will focus exclusively on the professional team and has graduated from school. With Germany, he won the bronze medal at the U18 European Championship in 2023 and was the best shot blocker of the tournament with 3.9 blocks per game. 

Offensive Analysis:

Synergy Play Types Grünloh for Vechta, Season 23/24 

Grünloh had a rather small offensive role last season, posting an offensive usage of just above 13%. Vechta mainly uses him as a screener and diver or in handoff situations where he can work his way into a deep position under the basket in the flow of the offense and is a big factor as an offensive rebounder. He uses swim moves to create space for himself and regularly uses Theiss/Gortat screens to clear the way to the basket for his teammates. Grünloh is currently not a really physical screener, but rolls strongly towards the basket. In some interviews, he already has talked about the fact that he sees the greatest potential for improvement in his physique and gaining strength, aside from him working on becoming a better shooter. 

When he rolls to the basket, he has a good feel for rolling deep to the rim and always offers himself for passes. I’m not sure if it’s system-related, but the Vechta’s ball handlers find him a little too rarely despite good positioning and potential passing angles. If Grünloh gets the ball after rolling, he regularly shows his vision and ability to read the defense and exploit rotations with quick passes. His vertical spacing overall is limited, Grünloh is tall, but does not have outstanding length or vertical leap. However, if there is some space, he can roll to the basket with momentum and finish above the rim. 

Here are some great examples of him using the Duncan special (otherwise known as Theis seal, or just paint seal). Multiple things happen here. For once, Grünloh is able to create clean driving lanes for his ball handlers, which often results in easy layup attempts. Second, If there is an offensive rebounding opportunity, Johann is already in great position to grab the ball and reset the play or put it back into the rim. 

OREB 

Vechta uses Grünloh rolling deep to get great position for offensive rebounds. As seen in the Synergy playtypes, a lot of his offensive usage stems from offensive rebounds, which most typically are extensions of his screen and roll actions. 

Roll Pass: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8vNT2gGubTY&list=PL01lYG-4nC1J9YBCcLJVqtMaX8iqKlarC&index=18&ab_channel=JanDen%C3%9Fen

The catch plus immediate kickout could be more of a learned pattern than a quick read. I’ve seen him using this exact pass from time to time because it’s typically the corner shooter who’s open in those situations. But the inside out passing looked intriguing, especially since Grünloh isn’t a high level finisher at this stage (52.9% layup FG% last season). The total rim finishing numbers looked way more decent last season, with 66.9% FG% on rim finishes per Synergy. Overall, we can see his limitations, but the numbers aren’t concerning in my point of view. 

Post usage has dropped significantly for Grünloh at the professional level. This is where you can particularly see that the physical adjustment is still difficult for him, especially in this area, and that he still has to rely too much on finesse finishes at the moment. At the youth level, he was able to make damage here, especially with hooks over his left shoulder, and showed interesting flashes as a passer in these situations. For now, however, the post game is not a factor in his game outside of mismatch situations after offensive rebounds or switches. 

His shot could have somewhat hidden potential. He currently takes the three-pointer in small volume (17.9% 3PAr), but hits about 31% of them. This season, he is shooting with more confidence and doesn’t hesitate to let it fly when open. However, we are talking about a minuscule sample of about 100 three-point attempts over his career so far. The current trajectory of development is still encouraging. 

Shooting Clips: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yG7EmqwZMjA&ab_channel=GatheringIntel

Defensive Analysis:

Vechta changes defensive coverages multiple times per game, depending on matchups and course of play. Johann got exposed to playing nearly every coverage in the book and really didn’t look out of place one bit in any of them. This exposure helps him to further sharpen his role versatility and understanding of the defensive side of basketball. His strongest role at the moment is playing as a drop big and defending at screen level. 

The baseline level, especially as a drop defender, is pretty impressive keeping in mind his age and the competition level. He is very mature, rarely bites on fakes or overplays and is a real threat as a rim protector, posting a BLK% of 5.44% in his first BBL season. To put this into perspective, an aging Serge Ibaka was at a 6.86% BLK% for Bayern Munich in similar minutes played. Aside from his blockrate, his 1.18% STL% shows a complete picture from a statistical viewpoint which shows a good level of defensive production. The single best defensive skill at the moment is probably his verticality, where he just limits vertical space with great timing and incredible displays of hand-eye coordination. 

The Elephant in the Room: Margin of error  

Even though Grünloh is already one of the better rim protectors of the German BBL at a young age, the margin of error for him is quite small in this context. The baseline of defensive awareness, motor, and consistency at his young age is remarkable. Listed at 6-11 and 220lbs, Johann has decent physical measurements. We have no official wingspan number, but from watching the tape it looks like it’s slightly positive at most. Functionally, I have questions about his length (which he can’t improve) and his ability to take contact (which he can improve). He’s not the most physical guy in the world, but I don’t feel like he doesn’t like contact, he’s just not strong enough for the moment. Long story short, we have the baseline of a potential good rim protector, with clear physical limitations to improve upon. I don’t want to be too nitpicky here, but the role as a primary rim protector is the most valuable defensive position in basketball. 

The slip is always hard to defend without help from the weak side, but Grünloh somehow blocked or at least contested the dunk attempt. The overall process is really intriguing to see from a young big man. Having the spatial awareness to know in an instant where the ball, opponent, and rim is and to be able to really contest the dunk is captivating to watch. 

Different play, same situation for Grünloh (I really like how Bonn lifted the weak side guy to take away eventual weak side help to mix it up). This time, he gets on the poster. This shows how small the margin of error on this type of play is for him. Grünloh, in general, makes no business decisions and doesn’t care to get dunked on from time to time, which is a really positive trait. 

Sometimes, offense just beats defense. But this could be a bit of foreshadowing seeing him against higher level competition – whether it’s Euroleague or NBA. Darius McGhee (the ball handler in this clip) is a menace to defend, but just 5-9, 180lbs and overall a below average finisher at the rim. Not something that pops up regularly on the tape, but for sure to monitor going forward. 

As a backline defender, Grünloh overall showed a good feel for timed rotations. You can see the small margin of error again on display, as Grünloh isn’t quick, long, or explosive enough to make rotations and contests consistently. 

Norris Agbakoko is one of the more devastating vertical spacers of the BBL. Coming up to screen level in pick and roll against dynamic vertical spacers currently looks like a bad idea most of the time for him. He has to be more locked in here, pressuring the ball handler or recognizing the hard roll to the basket. 

I would like Grünloh to move a bit better, especially opening his hips to quickly turn and recover in those situations. It’s unlikely he’ll be able to improve to a point where he would be able to defend at least tall NBA wings who are handling the ball at a decent level. 

Concluding Thoughts: 

Although the margin of error on defense for Grünloh might be slim, Grünloh has already established himself as one of the most promising big man prospects Europe currently has to offer. I trust in the physical development eventually catching up with his already good baseline level of defensive feel to mitigate most of the mentioned improvement points to become a clearly positive player on that end. 

On offense, he’ll probably be limited to a role as a pure play finisher with various outcomes. Grünloh is already really solid in a lot of things, but improving his inside finishing should be the main priority for him to unlock the other parts of his offensive skill set. With improved roll gravity, he’ll get more and better passing opportunities. 

Because of his versatility, I can see Grünloh as someone who doesn’t need a narrow context to develop and someone who possesses quite a high floor if he makes the required steps. There is a chance his defense never really translates because he’s just too short and/or not developing enough as an athlete to make up his current weaknesses. But I’m always willing to bet on someone who is both really productive at a young age and has a good baseline level of feel on both ends of the floor, and especially on defense. 

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^Zvonimir #14, listed at 7’2 across from his brother, Tomislav #13, listed at 7’0..

Ivisic’s skills are self-evident in the limited film, with maybe the most prominent one being his handful of quick triggered, no hesitation hoists from deep. The shot is quick, compact and without much use of lower body input. It’s an easy ball, and can be used as an effective option in pick-and-pop situations. One basic issue with the shooting is the volume, although he seemingly could not wait to get his shots up when he saw the floor for the first time. Even when compiling 3-point numbers from what I could find the last couple years, the grand total was still less than a hundred attempts, and same goes for free throw numbers. The eye-test for me says Ivisic is a shooter, but there will just need to be a bigger shooting sample to look at before fully checking that box in pen. But it is not the only skill Ivisic flashes.

Ivisic really captured some sort of magic in his debut, even summoning a wild behind-the-back pass while on-the-move. There are these occasional small glimpses into Ivisic’s vision as a passer, which manifest in highlight connections like that previously mentioned behind-the-back one, or with short-roll dishes to the rim or even more routine ones like in advance passes up the court. But there are also too many instances of poor, nonchalant passing execution and dumbfounding turnovers. Again, like with the shooting, there just isn’t enough film to confirm or deny his true proficiency as a passer, but the duality of questionable decision-making and functional passing upside is noted here. If Ivisic can hone and replicate those flashes as a short-roll and interior passer, it could begin to solidify his case as a pretty complete play-finisher out of the roll.

The skillset doesn’t stop there though, as Ivisic makes good use of footwork in several facets of his offensive game. As a screener, Ivisic is spry to screen continuously throughout a possession, flowing into actions with good pace and quickly diving out of screens. The screens themselves have a layer of physicality, with Ivisic showing that he can take a chunk out of the POA defender, although needs to clean up some of the illegal moving screens. In more conventional rolls to the rim, Ivisic is capable of finishing lobs, with signs of high-level coordination on adjustments for catches, although his vertical is not overwhelming. Ivisic also has nice feel and recognition for when both POA defenders are up on the ball-handler, slipping behind and finding the open space to settle into for the dump-off against the double team. Ivisic recognizes pretty immediately when he is open, and has his hands up as a target right away. And in those short-roll scenarios, Ivisic is generally under control and looking to advance upon the rim with intent to score, where his footwork shows up again as a useful tool. Ivisic does a nice job of utilizing pivots to find better finishing windows and even position himself for more powerful two-handed flushes at the rim. 

While his footwork and handle on short-area moves towards the rim are pretty effective, it is of note though that outside of some brief open-court handling from Ivisic in FIBA u20 that Ivisic’s ball-handling is not too functional. He had instances of issues keeping his dribble secure in tight spaces. That will need to be cleaned up at the very least for DHO actions, but it does not lend itself to Ivisic as any sort of threat to attack from the perimeter outside of on-the-catch with momentum. 

And while he is skilled getting into finishes, Ivisic plays in a more finesse-leaning tilt. As a big, there should be an element of punishing physicality to your game. A post game was non-existent for Ivisic at Kentucky, which is not a huge deal as he translates to the pros since he executes his role as a roller, but it may also indicate a lack of ability to overpower college defenders, as he did have instances of struggling to post up smaller defenders in FIBA u20. It may be that Ivisic naturally leans towards being a more finesse offensive player with occasional forceful dunks when he’s maneuvered into position. 

If Ivisic refines and applies all his strengths in a bigger role next year at Arkansas, then he may become one of the most versatile screener threats in the class on the pop, roll and short-roll.

For context, at Kentucky Ivisic often played alongside two of the most skilled guards in the 2024 Draft class. Arkansas will have an experienced grad-transfer guard in Johnell Davis, along with fellow Wildcat transfer DJ Wagner, and more freshmen guard talent, but they will not be the passers Rob Dillingham and Reed Sheppard were. Still, Ivisic’s dual threats out of screening actions should help his guards help him. And if Ivisic’s spacing ability is true, it gives Calipari some lineup flexibility with their other frontcourt players.

It is not unreasonable to be buying into Ivisic as an offensive player. But the big question for bigs is on the defensive end. Which defensive frontcourt roles can you fill? 

Ivisic has decent mobility for a 7 footer, but his initial stance on the perimeter is often not nearly low enough or engaged enough, routinely getting blown by right at the line of scrimmage. While Ivisic has some recoverability to make a play at the rim and make up for giving up the angle, NBA guards will have plenty of room in the intermediate area to use that angle to manipulate and handicap that recoverability, especially if the blow-by is occurring immediately way out on the perimeter. Ivisic is not the beefiest plodding center, and he can move fairly well, so the expectation should be placed higher for him guarding on the perimeter. Not asking Ivisic to lock anyone up, but just looking for him to be more competitive in this area and contain the ball better. Though Ivisic has shown great length, quick hands and quick reaction time to block jumpers on the perimeter. 

The lack of perimeter defense at this point for Ivisic hurts the case that he could possibly play some 4. Not only would the on-ball stuff be concerning, the supplementary weakside defense seems largely absent. Ivisic played the 4 for Croatia’s u20 team in 2023, while his brother played the 5, and he was very quiet as a weakside presence, with little-to-no activity coming from that position. The instincts for it just weren’t there. I won’t say this is damning for any case that Ivisic could play the 4 defensively, but in addition to the perimeter woes, it’s close. 

While Ivisic does have height and length that can be disruptive defensively at the rim and the timing of some blocks with his outstretched arms is nice, many instances came without rotating from very far. As a POA drop big, Ivisic’s positioning can be moderate to fair, sometimes losing a half step on a downhill driver just like his perimeter defense, ending up in that vulnerable position behind the ball-handler, but again has the recoverability that he unfortunately seems to rely a little too much on. More film of Ivisic as a defender is needed here to see how he has progressed in his positioning.

Lastly, the rebounding lacked physicality and finding box-outs was not routine, and at times it looked like Ivisic struggled a bit to cleanly end possessions with a rebound. Even in some post defense, Ivisic had a tough time battling for ground and post real estate. As a prospect who has nearly eliminated themselves from the proposition of playing the 4 defensively, Ivisic has a lot to prove as someone who can fulfill a center’s defensive duties in the NBA.

The argument for Ivisic revolves around his offensive versatility as a rolling and spacing threat, which is where he can separate himself from other prospects on that end, but each individual ability is far from concrete at this point. Ivisic will need to truly evolve each skill from a flash to a legitimate weapon. More importantly, at the end of the day a player who is confined to the center position defensively really needs to be a strong defensive anchor. With more minutes, Ivisic should have a chance to showcase growth on the defensive end. I will be looking for a more consistent awareness of the rim, and more physicality overall. 

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