Summer Sleepers: Adrian Wooley
Adrian Wooley is an awesome basketball player. That is the most basic descriptor I have used for a prospect, too generic to provide any real, useful insight. But man, it’s true. It is always nice when aesthetics align with on-court positive contributions, and that is what we have in Wooley. Aesthetics can matter in a sort of roundabout way – our brain is triggered to appreciate gracefulness and creativity on the court. Often (but, importantly, not always), that overlaps significantly with actual basketball usefulness. A James Harden defender-collapsing stepback can pick us up out of our seats while also being a highly efficient look itself. The same has been true for Adrian Wooley pull-ups, which he executes with variety and always cleanly. What I’m saying is, enjoy the clips I feature here while also appreciating what that means for a freshman taking on a large creation burden.
This series is a practical application of my work last summer, studying the NBA’s greats as prospects and the league’s greatest improvers as prospects. Perhaps no quality was more essential to becoming a true great than what I call the “one-two punch.” While not every NBA great is a great scorer, the great scorers all have this in common, and to be the best of the best you need to be a great scorer. A one-two punch is as big of a ceiling raiser as any trait I’ve come across.
A one-two punch is, essentially, a quick bi-directional move that has an extremely high likelihood of creating a good shooting pocket, while also having the consistency of motion to score efficiently after doing so. Think Jordan’s crossovers or late-career fadeaways or, perhaps most notably of all, Kareem skyhooks. To quote my stars piece from last year:
In a video from my childhood I can’t track down, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar talked about how a player only needs four moves: a right, a left, a fake right into left, a fake left into right. It can be tempting to seek out as much scoring versatility as possible, as indeed that will help stabilize a player’s performance too. But everyone needs a fastball, a building block that only makes it easier to branch off to more complex actions.
Steph’s excellency changing direction running off ball and coordination to get into motion on the catch gives him easier passing windows and cleaner paths to the paint as the defense overcommits to run him off the line. That consistency of space creation (with misdirect as the key) means the opponent not only has to be in the perfect position to get a good contest, but also has to have help ready to go.
Adrian Wooley has one of the best one-two punches of any prospect right now, which will serve him well with increases in competition.
Wooley’s first option is always a drive to his left, comprising 2/3rds of his drives, with options built off of that. His passing is most effective out of drive and kick, proficient with left-hand live dribble kick outs, keeping the strong-side help honest. However, Wooley’s teammates shot TWENTY-EIGHT PERCENT from three (this would rank 362nd of 364 NCAA teams), severely swallowing up his driving space. Wooley’s poor assist-to-turnover ratio of 1.1 reflects both the open shots his teammates missed and how defenders could help onto Wooley while giving up only subpar efficiency looks by leaving his teammates open.
That’s where the “two” part of one-two punch comes in: Wooley has an unbelievably good left-to-right pull-up. He shot a blistering 29 for 69 (42%) on pull-up threes, but it’s really the consistency of technique that stands out (another improver trait). Because of Wooley’s proficiency, Kennesaw State somehow shot better on pull-up threes than open catch and shoot attempts.
Wooley’s pull-up is enabled by great lower body flexibility and balance, always steady on his gather no matter how much space he just created. Though he is comfortable pulling up to his dominant left side as well, it’s the left-to-right that is deadly. This means an opponent will not just have to send help for his left-handed drives (more difficult as Wooley’s team spacing improves), but also play further up on his right hip to be ready for the change in direction. That’s a difficult duo of moves to defend, no matter the competition level.
Of course, for this to be especially potent, the “one” has to be excellent as well – Wooley must be an elite driver to really leverage his pull-up. The primary trait working in his favor here is his small space coordination, an improver trait, though his ability to invite physicality deserves a mention as well.
More than anything, Wooley is a driving problem-solver, but this is only possible because he can navigate the chaos that happens as you approach the rim. Small space coordination opens up all kinds of driving angles, as he is not limited to traditional, straight-line gathers, whether through an extreme deceleration, euro, reverse angles or other unusual footwork.
If he needs to, Wooley has shown he can fake from left to right near the rim to then spin back to his left after the opponent bites. That’s a decision tree with a lot of options.
These are hard things to stop as a defender, but small space coordination is, more importantly, an improver trait generally. Wooley has a high degree of movement quality, not only capable of long lunges forward as he accelerates, but can also duck through two defenders getting to his pull-up. Small space coordination is an improver quality because it unlocks reps in difficult spots of the court. To be a great player, those are essential. Think of how much of a career Pascal Siakam has built off of dancing through traffic, first just spamming spin moves which eventually allowed him to develop multiple counters. It is very difficult to experiment as a scorer without being able to navigate more than one line of the defense.
Which leads us to our third, perhaps most important trait of Wooley’s: he loves to experiment. This is particularly notable for a freshman, as Wooley proved himself more than capable of taking on a large burden while trying new things. Wooley’s most efficient play type, compared to all NCAA players, was actually out of isolation, where he landed in the 87th percentile in points per possession. His 1.10ppp on isos compares favorably to Dylan Harper’s 0.83, Cooper Flagg’s 0.81 or VJ Edgecombe’s 0.76. While his competition was the weakest out of the group, Wooley had the worst supporting cast to share the burden – Kennesaw State’s next four minutes leaders all had true shooting below 55%. (As an aside, it is remarkable Duke’s top NINE players by minutes all had true shooting above 55%. Has that ever happened before?)
Just check out all the tools in the toolkit visible in the below:
On-ball experimentation is maybe the most self-evidently important, as how else do you improve without just trying things? Not only does Wooley have reliable go-to’s via pull-ups or driving decelerations, but he employs those in unusual ways. This is a case of the aesthetic lining up with the utility: Wooley simply makes a lot of rare types of plays. Once again, this is amplified by his willingness to initiate contact and small space coordination. Of any freshman who took a decent three point diet (5+ three point attempts per 100 possessions), Wooley was fourth in free-throw rate, behind only Kasparas Jakucionis and Jeremiah Fears for one-and-dones. Like those two, his craft inside the arc combines with a willingness to explore unique driving angles, getting into his defender’s chest.
Putting these three qualities together – Wooley’s one-two punch, small space coordination and on-ball experimentation – and you get a very dangerous scoring threat. Wooley has many routes to beat you, and is trying out new ways to do so every game. With better shooting surrounding him at Louisville compared to Kennesaw State’s woeful supporting cast, Wooley will have even more room to figure things out. Wooley was fifth among freshmen in points per game, second only to Creighton transfer Blake Harper among returners.
The biggest issues with Wooley are his turnovers and okay defense. He does commit clear-cut mistakes occasionally, with most of his turnovers coming out of driving too deeply into traffic and getting stuck. While this will be aided by better spacing (especially from incoming freshman Mikel Brown Jr.), Wooley could stand to improve his decision-making regarding how deep to drive, as well as his passing creativity to escape those instances.
What I have left unmentioned is Wooley has good size for someone who has functionally played point guard at the college level, listed at 6’4” and 200 pounds. The latter is a good 20 pounds heavier than last season, a scary thought for opponents considering Wooley was already adept at drawing fouls. More weight will also increase his odds of defending shooting guards rather than at the point of attack, broadening his range of assignments.
Adrian Wooley has a rare combination of qualities, not just for hitting my thresholds for the three above, but also because those qualities resemble those of a high-end scorer. While Wooley likely does not have the stuff to be a true point guard, he would excel as a second-side creator for himself and others, will be able to score out of isolation, and can run some simple pick and roll. That is worth premium draft capital on its surface, and we haven’t even mentioned how he shot 44 for 103 out of catch and shoot. Wooley enters the season as a clear first-round talent on my board, with lottery potential if he can clean up his decision-making while continuing to experiment as a scorer and passer.
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