Show Me a Prospect: Devin McGlockton
For this series, I will be interviewing a variety of thoughtful draft analysts, both from the Swish Theory team and not. Each guest will make a claim, which I will then challenge in a written back-and-forth exchange.
First, I’m talking to Logan Adams who makes an optimistic claim for Vanderbilt’s Devin McGlockton. You can find Logan’s work here and follow him on Twitter here.
Logan’s claim: Devin McGlockton is a draftable talent, and should be on draft boards. His ability to win possessions with stocks and rebounds and encourage advantages on offense through passing, play finishing and screening makes him impactful beyond production.
Question #1:
Just right away, a few things point to a limit in McGlockton’s upside, but I’m curious if you agree/disagree. First, his combined lack of post up (3 for 12 all season) or drive threat (6 of 14 all season) make him confined to assisted possessions — he had the second highest assisted rate on Vanderbilt at 72% of makes. Do you disagree with this assessment as a ceiling-limiter, or is your idea around his value more tied to his likelihood of being a consistent role player?
Logan:
Self-creation is the clear critique of McGlockton, and one I totally get. He’s not big-sized, so a high assisted percentage is daunting at the next level, but what he lacks in size, he fully makes up for in wiring and athleticism. He’s long and quick, with range and motor that made him one of the SEC’s best offensive rebounders, and as a byproduct, an incredible possession extender and play finisher. To directly address on-ball concerns, I’ll deflect to what he provides as an off-ball scoring and playmaking addition to any lineup. Last season, he was statistically one of the best roll men in the country, with a 95th percentile volume. Soft hands, quick thinking, close-space athletic traits, and plus-plus touch are the ingredients that make this unorthodox yet effective offensive cocktail. With McGlockton on the floor, Vanderbilt produced a 122.4 ORTG, which would have been good for 15th in the country last season, and 19.0 points better than what Vanderbilt was capable of without him.
Question #2:
His on/offs are indeed elite, on both sides of the ball, which makes me think there is more going on than meets the eye or shows in counting stats. But I worry about the margins. He is a good athlete, but I don’t think a great one. He is an amazing offensive rebounder and a fantastic shotblocker for position, but his 16 dunks are much more pedestrian for a 6’7” player. If he’s not dunking, will he be able to keep the margins wide enough to get good finishing angles, or will NBA shot blockers overwhelm him? Additionally, on the defense end, his foul rate goes up to 5.3 per 40 minutes in his 17 games against top 50 competition. Is this another sign of athletic limitations?
Logan:
I think when discussing margins, especially as a scorer at the next level, it’s important to understand McGlockton’s touch indicators. He was incredibly efficient on his halfcourt rim attempts, going 11-of-11 on dunks and 68.8% on 80 layup attempts. He was almost at 40% on unguarded catch-and-shoot threes, and although shooting 66.7% from the free-throw line this past season, he’s consistently been in the mid-to-high 70s since high school. I’ve only really harped on why I think his scoring will translate to this point, though, and the foul increase is a valid concern. Part of it certainly has to do with margins, another that he’s making up for outlier-bad rotational defenders that make McGlockton easier to attack as a byproduct. The limitations are there, though, but it’s not enough to completely diminish his strengths.
Question #3:
There’s an unusual discrepancy between how McGlockton’s assist rate is low, below 10%, and how much the team passing improves when he’s on, going from a team assist rate of 46% to 52% with a decline in turnovers. Which do you think is more reflective of his impact on team passing and overall feel?
Logan:
To me, for as good as McGlockton is on defense, his superpower is his ability to create and extend advantages in ways that don’t show up on the stat sheet, which is cliche but applicable. He’s maybe one of the hardest screeners I’ve seen on film, which both creates mismatches and 5-on-4 or 4-on-3 situations for his team. That extends to his ability as a handoff hub, setting the table for his teammate to create with an advantage. Then, you have what he’s capable of as a delay action orchestrator, finding cutters in ways that enhances ball and body movement. I think his assists will go up this season with the departures of guys like Jason Edwards and AJ Hoggard, slotting McGlockton into more of a traditional hub role, but the passing and advantage creation has always been there.
Question #4:
Ok, considering all of that — where do you see McGlockton fitting in best in the NBA, and what kind of role would you expect him to play early in his career?
Logan:
The initial assignment will be as a small ball big. It’s what he’s been all three, going on four, years of college at this point, and I expect it to continue this way. In a pick-and-roll heavy system, he’ll fill in nicely as a screener and advantage/possession extender with his strength, passing, and play-finishing. Defensively, I have lingering doubts stemming from the question you asked regarding margins, but ultimately think he has the mind and tools to be impactful despite that. I think when discussing whether a player is draftable, it can often be misinterpreted as, “Is this player going to have a 10-to-15-year career?” or “Is this player going to have a starting-caliber impact?” I think there are pathways to that for McGlockton, who has been impactful at every stop, and has circumvented what appear to be clear weaknesses, all while having yet to unlock clear potential in areas like shooting and passing. However, in reality, we get very few second-round picks who receive fully guaranteed contracts historically, and even less now, with the third two-way slot allowing teams more hesitation to sign their late picks to full-scale, guaranteed deals. Even if McGlockton’s future is bouncing from team to team on two-ways, that is a high-percentile outcome for someone being argued on the basis of draftability.
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