NBA Prospect Preview: Aday Mara

In the history of the NBA, there have been 29 players listed 7’3 or taller: Of this group, 14 have been drafted in the 21st century, totaling 2,267 games between them. The list ranges from franchise-altering talents such as Yao Ming and Victor Wembanyama to players like Peter John Ramos and Sim Bhullar, whose NBA careers will be best remembered for their inclusion in lists like these. Interestingly enough, 70% of the games played by this group can be attributed to three players: Zydrunas Ilgauskas, Yao Ming, and Boban Marjanovic. From this cursory study, it seems as though the margins for the tallest of the tall are infinitesimally small, but where does the distinction lie? By evaluating 7’3 Michigan big man Aday Mara, the hope is to not only spotlight another underdiscussed prospect but also glean some valuable insights on big men in general.

Offense

At a glance, the statistical case for Aday Mara is a fairly straightforward one to make, small sample size notwithstanding; Mara was virtually unassailable across all impact metrics and possession-adjusted statistics.

Despite the stellar analytical resume, I definitely have some consternation towards Mara’s offensive projection. Per Bart Torvik, since 2010 there have been 515 seasons of players labeled as ‘Centers’ in their database who also played in the NBA. The average rim finishing of this ‘Center’ group is 70.9%. Mara doesn’t fall short of this threshold at all — as I write this on 11/8, Mara sits at 69.7% at the rim for his career (76/109). However, further examination of past centers’ touch profile would reveal another unofficial benchmark Mara has fallen short of. Since the summer of 2023, Mara has only finished 56.7% on layups (48/86) in all competitions. As insignificant as this number may sound, underwhelming rim efficiency paired with limited mobility is a fairly airtight method for determining whether bigs are NBA caliber or not.

While the value of queries in draft projections can and will be heavily contested by others, yielding a list of almost exclusively NBA also-rans with so few parameters should sound a major alarm in any evaluation. But in Mara’s case, there are a few contextually-rooted reasons for optimism. This past season, 42% (8/19) of Mara’s missed layups were on putback attempts. In designed offense (PNR Roll-Man and Post-ups), Mara was actually very effective, continuing the trend of improvement from the past few years.

Mara’s enhanced ability as a roller was evident throughout this past season. Mara made significant strides as a screener in addition to improving his patience on the catch. Compare the clips below, for example. The first clip is from a pre-conference game versus Arizona, and the second is from a mid-season conference matchup with Wisconsin. In both clips, UCLA runs a variation of ‘Spain Leak’ versus hedging defenses. And with the hedging coverage forcing the backline defenders to tag the roller early, Mara’s footwork and awareness after the catch are placed under duress. In the first clip, Mara is rushed by the speed of the help rotations, shuffles his feet, and logs a turnover. However, in the second clip Mara up-fakes, nimbly pirouettes around the recovering Nolan Winter, and creates a window for an emphatic finish.

Mara’s improvements as a play finisher and opportunistic scorer materializing within the 2024-25 UCLA team context is nothing short of astounding, considering the restrictions within the environment. In an attempt to streamline my analysis (and perhaps avoid a few query-incited eyerolls), I created a composite metric to describe the quality of an NCAA team’s finishing environment using a variety of team metrics and adjusted for year and position. The rating is called a ‘Context Quality Score’, and I will hopefully write something detailing the methodology in the near future.

In Aday’s case, he played in one of the least-friendly finishing contexts in my entire database which dates back to 2010. The 24-25 iteration of UCLA posted a -61.9 Context Quality Score, which falls in the 27th percentile for all players 6’10 and taller in Bart Torvik’s database. Amongst NBA players who came through the NCAA pipeline, this CQS is in the 21st percentile. UCLA played an extremely half-court heavy style with minimal shooting or passing talent. Mara’s inefficiencies were exacerbated by the fact that he was used as the fulcrum of the Bruins’ offense in his minutes. And while playing in an unfriendly environment doesn’t totally excuse Mara’s finishing, referencing the players who were similarly underwhelming at the rim in bad contexts reveals the path to success for Mara.

Cody Zeller and Steven Adams were the only two players 7-feet or taller who played for teams with 30th percentile or worse Context Quality Scores, finished below average for their position, AND still managed to log more than 3000 minutes. Both players have been career positives and certainly in Zeller’s case, an underrated player despite underperforming relative to his draft slot.

Looking at each player’s scoring output in the pros confirms their issues at the rim did persist, even though Zeller had some years of Kemba Walker-induced positive true shooting influence. Both Adams and Zeller possess negative playtype weighted rTS% (-2.4 and -1.4, respectively). However, both were highly impactful players in a manner I see Aday Mara capable of replicating at the next level, with elite contributions to the possession battle.

The highlighted column above is these players’ possession rank, which consists of their impact on team possessions in terms of net rating. While Zeller and Adams differ in their turnover influence, when it comes to rebounding, both are undeniable positives relative to position. This is where Mara should be able to establish himself amongst the league’s best. In the 2024-25 season, Mara posted a 20.5% total rebounding rate, 94th percentile for all players 6’10 or taller in Bart Torvik’s database. Mara’s presence on the offensive glass places a great deal of pressure on defenses, as even in limited minutes, Mara managed to get opposing bigs into foul trouble.

In the clips above, Mara’s effect on rival frontcourt players is apparent. Any lapse from the opponent, taking them out of position, makes securing a rebound virtually impossible. Mara’s size and consistent hands make early boxouts mandatory from opposing bigs, and when they fail to do so, often times their desperation to prevent easy second-chance points leads to fouls. Albeit in a small sample (555 possessions), UCLA’s free-throw rate with Mara on the floor is 32.3, good for 193rd in the country. In the 1157 possessions without Mara, UCLA posted a free-throw rate of 29.8, which would have been 275th in the country.

For as unambiguously encouraging as Mara’s rebounding translation is, turnover generation is a much more tenuous discussion. Generally, jumbo-sized NBA big men do not have positive defensive turnover value. My theory on the cause is the reliance on drop-coverage and the predictability of help rotations as a result. At the collegiate level, though, turnover generation can be a useful proxy for mobility and processing, and it’s here where Mara really falters historically.

Falling under 1% steal rate isn’t necessarily the kiss of death for Mara and his career 0.7% steal rate, but for a player who I expect to be a limited scorer because of the aforementioned touch issues, Mara’s defensive outlook needs to be clearer. If you compare him with the success cases in the query above, his scoring acumen falls well short. Similar to the offensive end, though, there are schematic factors that may have kept Mara out of the passing lanes and suppressed his steal count.

Over the 420 minutes Aday Mara played across three separate FIBA events, his steal rate never dipped below 1%, which stoked my curiosity as to what could’ve been behind his precipitous decline at UCLA. Obviously, it’s easier to accrue steals versus similar-aged competition than in the NCAA, but beyond this, there was a stark contrast between Mara’s defensive deployment at UCLA and any other team he’d been on.

UCLA Coach Mick Cronin is known for his defensive aptitude, and in the past has described his defensive philosophy as being rooted in generating turnovers, preventing layups, and above all else, not fouling. The first and last tenants seem somewhat contradictory; however, Cronin-led teams’ statistical resume shows he’s been near the bottom of the country in foul rate and two-foul participation (the percentage of time that a starter with two fouls in the first half has been allowed to play) and an above-average turnover rate team for most of his tenure.

Cronin has cultivated this defensive identity by deploying an aggressive switching scheme with bigs typically playing at the level of the screen. Cronin has aligned his personnel with this defensive philosophy by sacrificing size in his big men in favor of length and mobility. Since 2008, Cronin has only had two players 6’11 or taller play over a 30% minutes share: Nysier Brooks and Aday Mara. This is because of how taxing his style of defense is on bigs specifically. Take the clip below, for example. Mara has to hedge two separate ballscreens, and in the process is forced to cover a great deal of ground before having to fight through a pin-in screen to close out to a shooter.

Cronin’s defensive style is evident in their playtype frequency as well; they are consistently near the top of the country in percent of possessions spent guarding isolations and committing multiple defenders to ballscreens.

Of course, there are many ways to build a good defense ,as Cronin has exhibited. But it is defense-inconducive to larger players like Mara. An aggressive defense regularly tasking bigs with guarding on the perimeter, stopping drives, and demanding they do so without fouling, is going to be difficult for any 7-footer to perform. At times, Mara proved to be no exception to this.

But this is where Mara’s transfer to Michigan should prove to be a boon. Michigan head coach Dusty May has primarily run a drop defense, and in Michigan’s first exhibition, this is how Mara was utilized. Obviously, it is too early to tell if this schematic shift on its own will be enough to boost Mara’s steal rate to an acceptable level. My prediction would be that Mara’s absurd block rate slightly declines as his minutes increase and he is tasked with a more static role in PNR coverage. But, playing more inside the arc, Mara will be able to get his hands on more interior passes, as he had in international settings.

Circling back to an earlier query I’d referenced to highlight Mara’s touch concerns, even though I anticipate Mara putting together a season this year which would elevate him outside of this group, this query is instructive in determining what is appropriate risk to take when drafting big.

The only player here to play a meaningful number of NBA minutes is Luke Kornet, who uncoincidentally has comfortably the best assist-to-turnover ratio of the group. Even with their playmaking duties being considerably lower than other positions, centers’ cognition cannot be dismissed. If anything, metrics like assist-to-turnover may be more useful gauges of feel for bigs because their roles are more standardized than other positions. And for Aday Mara, who was given more playmaking responsibility than most bigs (90th percentile in Offensive Load for players 6’10 or taller) and maintained an A:TO of 1.21 (95th percentile for players 6’10 or taller) the currently available data indicates he may be an outlier when it comes to big man processing power.

All of this is to say Mara’s feel for the game eases many of my concerns with his defensive translatability and finishing. Any study on jumbo-sized bigs like Aday Mara will be limited because of the shallower pool of comparable prospects. But, to date, Mara has cleared the largest hurdles for center prospects; His rim-protection, passing, and two-way rebounding are all in line with successful NBA centers of the past. Checking these three boxes alone greatly shrinks Mara’s range of possible outcomes, and even if his rim-finishing issues aren’t resolved, there are past cases of ineffective scorers at Mara’s size becoming NBA mainstays. Zydrunas Ilgauskas has played the most minutes this century of any player listed 7’3 or taller, and was above league average rim field goal percentage only once in his career! In fact, if I were to make a comparison for Mara it would be Big Z, a player impact metrics consistently rated near the top 150 players in the league, despite being a negative scoring influence on offense.

Ultimately, the floor seldom seems to fall out for prospects, and considering how valuable a super-sized big can be, there’s a case to be made that these players are worth taking based on scarcity alone. Many of the recent ‘busts’ at this size aren’t unambiguous failures relative to expectations. Even though they fell short of the previously outlined feel thresholds, Tacko Fall and Walter ‘Edy’ Tavares have plausible NBA cases today. Fall has been consistently productive internationally and in the G League, while Tavares has been in the top 20 of PER in the ACB since he arrived in the league eight years ago.

Aday Mara is not without his flaws, and the offensive production Mara provides will be heavily dependent on his offensive rebounding and turnover aversion. Understandably, this elevator pitch may not be the most appealing within the lottery range, and any analysis rooted in statistical precedent can be tenuous with how friendly impact metrics can be towards centers. However, simply put, players of Mara’s size should be given the benefit of the doubt considering how outsized returns can be, and how their developmental trajectories seem to be the most reliably constant relative to other position groups. A theme of NBA prospect development seems to be that bigs are given up on too early: the nomadic early careers of Ivica Zubac and Isaiah Hartenstein immediately come to mind. Attitudes towards bigs have changed since then, and if Aday Mara continues on this trajectory, he should not slip through the cracks like his predecessors.