I thought it would be a good exercise (and an easier way to generate new content) to review some of my old reports from nearly 3 years ago to see what I got right and what I got wrong, and delve into why. Draft philosophy may have changed, stances and opinions may have changed, but these reports are a documentation of a moment in time of my thoughts and observations. This series should provide plenty of lessons.
The next prospect in this series is Ryan Kalkbrenner. This report on him (posted at the end of this piece) was from 2020, coming out of high school ahead of the 2020-21 college basketball season. The prep reports had a little different format than the draft reports, but largely the same. So this is the snapshot of my evaluation on Kalkbrenner going into college. I’ve also noticed in reviewing my notes and observations from the past that the more filled out a section is, the more likely that those skills are imposable and a true part of the player’s game. I’ll touch on the report, but since Kalkbrenner is one of the top returning center prospects, I’ll also fold this piece into a look forward at his 2024 Draft prospect case.
Starting at the top of the report working down, the first note is including a draft age. Not that Kalkbrenner was really on any draft board radars as an incoming freshman, but it gives a better gauge of where he was at relative to the more draft-ready prospects and talents. Kalkbrenner would have been 19.4 if he entered the Draft after his first season, which was unlikely considering he came off the bench to begin his college career.
But before that, while Kalkbrenner come into college with center height, some of his other dimensions and elements of his athleticism were lackluster for the center position. As a towering skinnier kid in high school, Kalkbrenner had plenty of work (mostly weight) to put into his frame. Listed at the time in high school at 210 lbs, Kalkbrenner needed to beef up by about 40 lbs to get to average NBA center weight. The home court of measurements is your own team’s website, and Creighton has Kalkbrenner very generously listed at 270 lbs. I do think Kalkbrenner has done good work to strengthen his frame and put on weight over the years, but 270 lbs must be his top-end weight, if even.
Part of the reason I doubt he carries 270 lbs is because Kalkbrenner has run the floor quite well. Looking back at the high school report, that floor-running was present, but it seemed laborious. Kalkbrenner’s stride and speed over the years at Creighton has genuinely improved, where now he seems to comfortably run the court. But the willingness was always there. It would have been fair to project from this report that with several years in a college weight and conditioning program, Kalkbrenner would be able to adequately fulfill the baseline athletic requirements of the center duties, running the full court and screening constantly.
Although center size and full-court mobility could be projected out, Kalkbrenner had a reportedly underwhelming vertical. Not that Kalkbrenner would have any trouble dunking at his height, but it begins to put a cap on all the possible dunking opportunities that are available to him in a game, and thus the projection can begin to eliminate starting NBA center outcomes. NBA centers need to clean up around the rim, and what better way than by dunking. And what easier way to dunk than by just jumping over and/or around guys. Kalkbrenner still has the height and length for some dunking opportunities, but would likely miss out on others relative to competition via lack of vertical. Kalkbrenner has 263 dunks in his college career, so he could still find dunks in the NBA.
Last note on the athleticism, Kalkbrenner had some change-of-direction challenges, not uncommon for a tall player to have. Not sure how much emphasis was placed on his hip mobility while at Creighton. I’m sure there was marginal improvement, but it was not starting from a great place.
Moving onto the shot evaluation, Kalkbrenner’s “trebuchet” mechanics and “concerning” level of touch landed him a shot projection of “needs time,” which was a cowardly cop-out projection from myself. Of course it needed time, everyone’s shot needs time to get better!
Taking a look at it again in 2024, I think there would need to have been some tweaks to the set point to remove that trebuchet component, trying to tighten up the process. Also noteworthy, his 62.1% career FT% on 309 attempts is an acceptable percentage for a young big man. Of course in need of time and improvement as well. Here’s how Kalkbrenner’s form looked in his most recent season, and his FT numbers from college:
The set point at the top of his release does not get cranked above and/or behind his head anymore. At the free throw line, Kalkbrenner brings that shooting pocket up to his chin, which is fine in the context of an unguarded free throw but not super translatable to shooting in live game play. Kudos to Kalkbrenner for putting in the time and putting himself over the top of that typical 70% FT% threshold.
The context portion of the prep report included two teams: Kalkbrenner’s high school team in Missouri and his AAU team. In both contexts, he was tasked primarily with protecting the rim. The level of competition in high school did not impress, but some of the plays Kalkbrenner made at the rim defensively on Mac Irvin Fire against elite AAU athletes was outstanding, and the kind of eye-popping element you want to see as a scout.
Small note, but the ankle tweaks back in high school have followed Kalkbrenner a little bit in college.
Moving on to the skills section of the report, Kalkbrenner had an operable handle, but nothing to suggest anything outside of what a typical center would need to do. The more pertinent ball skill to look at is the finishing, where Kalkbrenner’s lack of touch around the rim was vicariously frustrating. For a supposed 7-footer, it was disconcerting to see. It would also matter less if Kalkbrenner was constantly flushing down dunks, but it has been established that he is not that type of athlete. So as dunks dry up due to lacking a premier vertical, Kalkbrenner’s opportunities would become a little further out from the rim. Not incredibly far out, but far enough that some level of touch would be required. Kalkbrenner did get above 70% 2p% as an upperclassmen in high school, so it was not like his touch was horrendous. But that was against high school competition, and projecting out to the NBA means a center must maintain an extremely high level of efficiency in the paint.
As a decision-maker, Kalkbrenner seemed to play within himself and his role, making solid decisions and not hurting the team, which is very projectable for his position. Playing the right way and consistently making the right play right away, no matter the role, is a pretty good sign that a player is at least on the curve in terms of applied basketball knowledge.
The selling point for Kalkbrenner as a prospect, even coming out of high school, had to be his rim protection skills. The technique he displayed defending around the rim was simple and effective, as he would just position himself optimally between the driver and the rim, and then remain vertical while being as big as possible. And he encountered a slew of drivers on his Mac Irvin Fire AAU team, where he not only held his own but was quite the obstruction at the rim, fending off highly athletic and highly ambitious finishers. It was truly an elite skill heading into college, and a key reason at the time to keep tabs on Kalkbrenner’s development in other areas.
Rim protection was Kalkbrenner’s calling card, and the next best defensive skill he had was in drop, exhibiting great feel in those 1-on-2 situations, not losing contact with the roller while working to deter the ball-handler. His footwork was not the quickest, and his vertical challenging lobs in those positions was not the best, but the positioning was very adept, and it signaled understanding of defending the PnR that was certainly ahead of the curve for an incoming freshman.
Other defensive areas that were sound included using angles to stay in front of drivers, post defense and boxing out. The more vulnerable areas were not uncommon for a tall player: closeout speed getting out to the perimeter and control in those situations.
From this report, Kalkbrenner’s main selling point as a prospect was the rim protection, which continued to be a strength of his in college. The technique has only been refined, and the experience has only grown. Does it meet the threshold for NBA center rim protection duty requirements? I think it would be passable, but it is contingent on being paired with paint efficiency on the other end of the floor, per fundamental conventional center responsibilities.
Below is Kalkbrenner’s career Barttorvik stat profile.
The block percentages are nothing to sneeze at, but they are a little below the 10% BLK% often seen in the profiles of high-level rim protecting prospects. While I do think Kalkbrenner’s technique, willingness and audacity is on par with other good rim protecting prospects, it may be a degree or two below the elite rim protector prospects. And that may be another way Kalkbrenner’s lack of premier vertical ability limits the amount of impact he can make at times. Still, I think it is fair to say that Kalkbrenner checks the rim protection box for a center, which is the primary responsibility.
Rounding out the defensive evaluation, Kalkbrenner, like many centers, can be exposed a bit on the perimeter. But if the defense is staying true to form and keeping good defensive infrastructure, Kalkbrenner can be a competent cog in the machine on that end, although again, the lack of vertical may pose some trouble rebounding at times to finish out possessions. I imagine Kalkbrenner should be passable on the boards, but the margins do add up.
On the offensive end, Kalkbrenner has served his role well at Creighton. Primarily a play-finisher, Kalkbrenner plays within his role, screening and rolling, and taking the shots that he’s supposed to take, which is evident in his eFG% year after year. It’s incredible how efficient you can be when you cut out bad shots. Not that Kalkbrenner came in with much fat to trim – he already knew which shots were in his “bag.” It is not a deep bag, but as long as he keeps putting himself in the right positions, he will be able to accrue productivity playing off of NBA PnR partners. His screening, and then pace meandering into the paint is proper and timely, and he should pair well with any NBA guard. The screening can be a bit more physically punishing, but it is functional.
Shooting near 75% at the rim per Synergy last season, Kalkbrenner seems to meet the threshold as a play-finisher, but the margins of touch and vertical as well as the athleticism of NBA competition will put a squeeze on Kalkbrenner’s level of efficiency in the league.
While the FT% has held steady over 70% every year since his sophomore year, and the stretch ability has been dabbled in at this point, with Creighton allowing Kalkbrenner to rip off 54 3pt attempts last season, the shot projection does not seem super promising. First off, using the lack of great paint touch as an indicator for touch in other areas of the floor, I would not be inclined to believe a threatening above-the-break 3 is likely. Plus, his lack of paint touch unfortunately does correlate with his poor 3pt%, although from a small sample size so far. One stat to point to for the optimists: Kalkbrenner has shot over 50% on far 2’s per Bart the last two seasons, going 29/57 and 44/81 from that range his junior and senior year respectively. Still, any stretch ability is down the line, if at all, and should not be weighed much in the overall projection.
As for play-making, it has been minimal at Creighton. He was not tasked with it, but flowed in Creighton’s offense, setting dozens of on- and off-ball screens every night. Capable of kicking out vs double teams and dribbling into handoffs, Kalkbrenner checks the box of passable passing for the center position, but it would be nice to know how much short-roll passing chops he has, if any.
Ultimately, Kalkbrenner has the skillset to fill the conventional center role, but may barely pass vertical, mobility and play-finishing thresholds. How much do those limitations come back to bite him? The bold rim protection could earn him minutes early on, and he should be able to exist satisfactorily in an offensive ecosystem. Kalkbrenner checks the boxes of what’s required from a center, but to what degree for each box? Is it to a high enough degree? An NBA degree? Where is he adding surplus value? I will want to see Kalkbrenner show up and show out at the rim defensively this next year, shutting things down and proving that skill is at an elite degree. On the offensive side of the ball, I want to see Kalkbrenner showcase more agile footwork around the rim; if the touch around the rim is indeed a bit clunky, use footwork to find easier finishes.
As for the initial retrospective look at Kalkbrenner, the identification of rim protection as the main skill and calling was correct, as it still is his most promising NBA skill. I was right and wrong about the shot projection, as the free throw shooting has come around, but I was wrong for using such a vague description since I did not even specify outside of “needs time.” No duh.. Time and effort has also taken care of the weight concern, even if Kalkbrenner isn’t really at 270 lbs.
Kalkbrenner has developed for four years since the writing of that report, and he has no doubt refined his shape, defense and form shooting. His strength at the rim defensively has remained constant, and his offensive flow is competent. That prospect package meets the bare minimum requirements, without a whole lot of skill on top to add value. If Kalkbrenner can showcase hitting shots in those intermediate pockets out of PnR, that would be a new element to his game as a play-finisher, and something I think is reasonable to add.
Short-roll passing is another reasonable thing to see, as Creighton usually has great spacing and shooters that attract defenders out, which leaves room for that short-roll option. Not many college contexts have that short-roll possibility, but maybe Kalkbrenner could develop some of it at Creighton.
Kalkbrenner should be on radars by now as a rim protector, with eyes looking forward to seeing him expand his abilities and options finishing plays out of the roll.
Tags:
Related Podcasts
No items foundRelated Articles
