Standing at 6’6” in shoes, Kasparas Jakucionis should be able to play both guard spots at the next level, but lacks the typical star-level athleticism indicators (slower footed, only one dunk during his freshman season, block rate under one) found in most high-end prospects. His combination of touch, skill, passing feel and youth leaves the door open for star-ish outcomes, but the likelihood of hitting such an outcome is a true “beauty in the eye of the beholder” situation. Your general draft philosophy will play an enormous role in how you value Jakucionis as a prospect, perhaps more so than any other prospect in this class.

Kasparas has great size for his position as a potential lead ball handler, and while he lacks grown man strength as a teenager, his frame should fill out well over time. More importantly, he already plays strong. He is tough on the boards and isn’t afraid to use his body, an impressive attribute considering the relative strength disadvantage he faced throughout the season. His body should mature into the build of a true “big guard”, but the picture of his ball-in-hand upside is muddied by athleticism and handle concerns.

As I mentioned earlier, Jakucionis does not have any of the statistical indicators that tell you “this guy is an NBA athlete”. Poor steal and block rates, poor dunk numbers, and he attempted more three pointers (170) than two pointers (169) during the season. There is real reason for hesitation with that statistical profile, and then you turn on the tape and the concerns seem justified. He can struggle to beat his man off the bounce, loses the ball in traffic way too easily, and can struggle to create good looks that are not step-back threes. So what upside are we talking about exactly?

The positive view of Kasparas does not involve him being a significantly better athlete than he showed at Illinois, nor does it delegitimize his struggles to create looks for himself during his freshman season. Those are genuine knocks, and issues that actually existed this year. The case for untapped potential lies not in the struggles but in the soaring highs that are littered throughout his tape, and more generally, the nature of development in the modern NBA.

Kasparas is an excellent passer, particularly considering he played his entire freshman season as an 18-year-old. He has good vision, particularly out of the pick and roll, and he tries some stuff. That results in some ill-advised lobs and passes directly to fans sitting courtside, but there are also flashes of brilliance. He is not the Lamelo/Trae style of imaginative genius, but his natural creativity is a compelling sign for continued growth as a distributor. Physically, Jakucionis is creative with his delivery angles, has the strength to make passes off a live dribble with either hand, and has excellent ball placement on his deliveries. The ball never sticks, and his quick decision-making should provide an impact even if he is playing a more off-ball role.

The shot projection is a mixed bag statistically, low midrange volume and a 31.8% mark beyond the arc, but it comes with real signs of encouragement. The three-point mark is low, but he took 9 attempts per 100 possessions (solid), shot 84.5% from the line (excellent) and 63% of his three point attempts were unassisted (a lot). On film, Jakucionis’s ability to create looks beyond the arc has grown immensely over the last two years. He is on a steeply upward trajectory, and while those attempts have largely been from a step back going left, his proclivity to pick that up quickly is an encouraging sign.

Part of his high turnover rate is the frequency with which he simply lost the ball while dribbling. As the space around him shrank, the likelihood of a negative outcome rose exponentially. Kasparas has a good feel for how to use screens as a ball handler, but is often reliant on a screen or semi-advantage to get downhill. He is not a great ball handler now, but his issues come from needing to tighten things up rather than trying to machine learn creativity. He can string together dribble moves and has some flashy finishes with both hands, with good efficiency. He has the kind of dexterity with the ball in his hands you look for out of guard initiators, but there is a looseness with the ball that will need to be ironed out over time.

If things break right, there is a real world where Kasparas is an All-Star level guard who can score efficiently at all four levels both on and off ball. If the handle tightens up, strength gets added, and the jumper continues its upward trajectory, he is an incredibly valuable offensive guard. Those are things that are realistically developable, but the flip side is true as well. If he never develops into a reliable shooter he will struggle to return top twenty value, and if the handle doesn’t tighten up it is hard to imagine coaches trusting him with the ball in his hands. There are multiple visions for Jakucionis as a pro, which one you see will be determined by your perspective.

Tyler Wilson