Let’s start with a bart query. What a surprise.

Let’s run with this: “Off Reb % ≥ 7; Assist % ≥ 12; Ast/TO Ratio ≥ 1.1; Block % ≥ 2.7; Steal % ≥ 2.2; 3PA/100 Poss ≥ 4; Conf = truhi”

Basically, a career offensive rebounding/assist/stocks with a shooting + high major filter to approximate Noah Penda’s production. Penda is 7.5 oreb/15.2 assist/1.5 a:to/3.7 block /2.5 steal and somewhere ~ 5 3PA/100; spare me the debates on ethics, as he comfortably clears these thresholds.

The results? Danny Green, Jae Crowder, Jeremy Sochan, Jarace Walker, Otto Porter, Gary Payton II, Draymond Green.

What a mf list. Penda is younger than half this list, with a higher A:TO (1.5), FTR (40), and TS% (55%) than many here. He is no slouch; he is just as good of a prospect as many of these players… if he put up these stats in high major NCAA.

Jeep Elite is a good league, littered with many former NCAA stars, but it’s fair to wonder how Penda would have performed in the NCAA. What is the playstyle of Penda’s team in Jeep Elite relative to an NCAA team?

Penda’s Le Mans ranked 48th percentile in transition possessions and 53rd percentile in half-court possessions amongst Jeep Elite Teams. Kansas also ranked 48th percentile in transition and 53rd percentile in halfcourt amongst NCAA teams. However, Le Mans averaged 87.2 possessions a game, 13.1 in transition and 74.1 in the halfcourt. Kansas averaged 79.9 possessions a game, 12.1 in transition and 67.8 in the halfcourt. Basically, Le Mans plays faster, but Kansas has a higher transition frequency. While this is a very quick, dirty, and imperfect approach: in projecting a player from Le Mans to Kansas, they would generally play the same number of transition possessions per game but lose a decent number of HC possessions. I would guess that most of this difference is probably just from the shorter shot clock in Jeep Elite (24 seconds) vs NCAA (30 seconds).

I was excited when I first calculated this, as Jeep Elite prospects could potentially receive a buff given that most players are far better per possession in transition than in the halfcourt. Unfortunately, Noah Penda is not one of those players. Penda is the rare player that is ~ 0.85 PPP in the halfcourt and in transition. In fact, Penda is one of the worst prospects in transition that I can recall, particularly for his size. I challenge you to find a wing prospect with worse transition scoring per possession. 

There are some valid excuses. I don’t have evidence for this, but it does seem as though defenders got back in position more quickly in Jeep Elite than in college. Perhaps this has something to do with the shorter shot clock, but it seems like the quality of contests is slightly higher in Penda’s league. Also, Penda was 1 for 8 on transition 3s and 0 for 3 on transition runners; 32% of his transition attempts were non-rim shots, and he was 1/11. You can imagine that this skews his percentages. 

While Penda was a more tolerable 71% on transition rim attempts, this is still more indicative of a below-the-rim finisher than your average wing. And that would check out, because Penda is a horrible vertical athlete. In fact, Penda’s combine testing was one of the worst of any non-center prospects. You can excuse the 7’2 250 pound Khaman Malauch for a 24 inch standing vert and 12 second lane agility time, but sub 7-foot defensive stoppers should not be putting up a 25-inch standing vert with 11.7 lane agility. For me, under 25 inch standing vert is entirely disqualifying for guards, and the wing threshold is just a bit higher. Awful agility and verticality for position is quite unfortunate for Penda, and it introduces a new degree of variability for his translation.

This issue predictably rears its head in half-court rim finishing situations; Penda was a disastrous 38/76 (50%) on halfcourt layups. What’s even more concerning is that he dunked at a below average clip (9 HC dunks in 37 games could maybe be excused by frequency of on-ball reps, with ~10% freq of cuts), and 72% of his 2P attempts were at the rim. This is effectively a 7:2 rim to non-rim 2 ratio, which is not particularly favorable for a below-the-rim sort of athlete. 

This shot diet is indicative of a lack of midrange counter, which checks out. Penda was really bad on runners last year, and while he’s toned down the volume, he’s still far below average efficiency. Across this year and last, he is 5/25 on runners overall (20%). Yikes. He was 11/22 on dribble jumper 2s, which is promising albeit an insignificant sample across 88 games. Other than that, it’s just pounding the rock at the rim. 

If Penda is a poor finisher with limited midrange counter, surely he’s a great shooter right? Not quite. Penda is up to 37/115 (32% 3P) this year, but he’s shooting just 67% FT. Last year, he was 31/117 (26.5% 3P). Shooting can improve, but shooting 67% on FTs and 30% on 3s with a high sample size across 2 years indicates that he will likely never be a truly good shooter.

So, Penda has weaknesses in transition scoring, in halfcourt rim scoring, in halfcourt midrange scoring, and in 3P scoring. Why am I so high on Noah Penda if he can’t score?

Because the feel is really that damn good. (Let’s define feel as rapid processing speed via the application of tools for reaction).

Penda is one of the highest feel wings in recent memory. He may be a poor leaper/runner, but his defensive highlights are next to none. His passing is legit. 15% assist on 18% usage is nuts man. And a two year A:TO of 1.6? Wing-sized passers are always, always at a premium in the league, and this is one of the best true wing-sized passers of the last few years.

Part of why Penda is such a good passer is that he can really handle and move in space with the ball. He has a 17% drive rate, which is above average for guards, with a 10% TO rate and 0.38 FTR on said drives. He also runs a ton of PnRs, with 11% PnR BH frequency. At 0.690 PPP on PnR BH reps, Penda was definitely inefficient, but don’t let it distract you from the fact that this sort of drive and PnR BH frequency for a forward, let alone a forward with 8’11 SR + 240 pound frame, is extremely rare. Most players of this build (say, CMB) are scoring out of postups rather than via PnR BH reps. There’s a reasonable argument that Penda has untapped creation upside given his strong on-ball frequency, handle, impressive downhill driving, and rapid reaction speed; while this seems unlikely to me given his speed/vert and poor scoring touch, his handle x size integration may end up being too good for a team not to diamond test in the league.

Penda is a spectacular defender. Across the last two years, he’s ~ 3.8% block/2.7% steal. And most importantly, Penda doesn’t foul- he’s just under 3 fouls committed per 40 minutes. For someone with such quick hands on D, his instincts and precision operate synergistically to force TOs while limiting foul risk. This ability to force TOs without fouling on D and pass without TOs on O is so rare. As I find myself repeating, Penda’s feel for his size is just remarkable. 

A potential implication of the aforementioned scoring possession discrepancy between France and NCAA is that stock rates are likely lower in the French league, because there are more FGAs per 40 minutes by virtue of the shot clock. There’s a good chance that Penda’s elite stocks are still lower than expected because of French league suppression + foul avoidance.

And we can’t forget just how well-sized Penda is. He measured 6’7.25 shoeless (~6’9 in shoes) with an 8’10.5 SR and 7-foot WS. Most importantly, he weighed in at a monster 242 pounds! This is a big ass wing. He’s basically CMB sized, but he’s shown a higher 3P rate (still a worse prospect, with worse rebounding/FTR and far lower usage).

Penda’s international track record is also excellent. He made the U20 Euro All-Tournament Team with a game-winning three. But what was really notable is how he was shifted into a less drive-centric role, allowed to crash the class. Penda put up a monster 12.8% OREB/21.4% DREB on 63% TS !!! He was running lots of PnRs, which elevated his TO rate to 21% and probably demonstrated that he’ll be capped as a lower usage wing in most NBA outcomes. And of course, he put up his typical 3% block + 3% steal. Penda was also quite good at U17 WC, where he put up 25 PER and a resounding 7% steal rate. He was worse shooting at U19 WC, but still racked up his signature OREB/AST/Stocks. One thing to monitor is that Penda’s usage was ~20% across these tournaments, and he was also at 20% TO rate. That was still good for 1.3 A:TO, but avoiding TOs is a critical part of his pitch as a low-friction wing in higher-end outcomes.

My pitch for Penda is a pitch on outlier sensorimotor cognition for mass. Penda is a supremely high feel prospect for a wing, let alone a huge armed, thick wing. He can really handle and get downhill, he’s an elite passer, he generally avoids TOs and fouls, and he racks up tons of stocks. He is also a great positional rebounder. You really cannot ask for more positive feel indicators. Penda has some real red flags as a scorer and athlete, but I’m betting on one of the highest feel wing prospects in recent memory to make it work. The turnover economy is critical in today’s NBA, with quick processing wings who can avoid TOs on offense and force TOs on defense being at a premium.

One last thing. Remember that query at the beginning? Let’s see if any were as tepid scorers as Penda projects to be. Go back to that query and look for the player with wing-size who happened to be the worst scorer at the rim and the worst scorer on 2s (hint: he’s at the bottom). This prospect also happened to be the closest to Penda’s A:TO/stocks/TS/WS/weight. Fun fact: said prospect was an utter non-shooter at Penda’s age.

Basketball isn’t played on paper, and Mr. Draymond Green had far more midrange counter while developing as a high-usage passer and rebounder by the end of his senior year. But on paper, the similarities between Penda and Draymond anthropometrically, statistically, and feel-wise are hard to deny. It would be laughable to project Penda anywhere close to Draymond impact, and there’s a reasonable argument that a 20-year-old without game-breaking numbers in Jeep Elite will never even sniff All-Star impact. But I do feel comfortable saying that we haven’t seen a prospect match Dray’s strengths AND weaknesses in the same way that Penda does.

A team looking to draft Penda would be wise to keep this DPOY/WWE fighter-sized niche in mind; with a few coin flips in favor of scoring and athletic improvements (half glass full type), Penda could really be a special type of wing in the league. I am philosophically inclined to always, always, take a stab at the high reaction speed, positionally huge, two-way prospect with legit productivity. 

Avinash Chauhan