There have been thinkpieces, snide tweets, and garrulous podcast episodes released to the ether that have declared the death of the small guard. This is the league where seven footers spawn in from Europe with the ability to dribble, pass, and shoot. The league where Jalen Brunson was condemned as structurally incapable of bringing a championship to New York based on historical precedent. Small guards have always faced an uphill battle, but there was a time during the 2010s where it seemed as though the underdogs had finally won the war. There was a brief shining moment where we witnessed Steph MVPs, a legion of Kyrie dribble mixtapes, and we even saw our generation’s own Muggsy Bogues reviving the Celtics. But now, more than ever in my lifetime, it seems like the National Basketball Association has permanently turned its back on small guards as its players have become more skilled and taller than ever before.

What a perfect context for two of the best small guard shooting prospects we’ve ever seen to enter the draft.

This isn’t an analysis of Walter Clayton Jr, but both Walter and Javon Small are genuinely two of the best shooting prospects we’ve ever seen. The case for Walter is likely more intuitive, especially as he led a relatively low talent-index Florida team on a convincing national title run. But let me show my work on why Javon Small is one of the best college shooting creator prospects of my lifetime.

Specifically, I’m impressed by Javon’s shooting versatility. His combination of midrange shooting, FT%, and 3P volume puts him in rare air for a high usage creator. Across his career, he took 10.7 3PA/100, shot 87.1% from the FT line, and converted 41.3% of his midrange shots.

To approximate this, let’s look at the list of NBA players who even put up 10 3PA/100, 86% FT, and 40% midrange in college. The list is only 8 players long: Cannady, AJ Green, Sam Merrill, Jared McCain, Markus Howard, Sam Hauser, Tyler Hall, and Trae Young. But half that list did it on < 23% usage, which is relevant because higher usage increases the difficulty of hitting the midrange threshold. Of the high-usage players, only Trae and Markus did it at the high major level.

There’s definitely been many shooters better than Javon in college basketball. But it’s Javon’s combination of creation for others and his scoring burden that makes his shooting goodness so impressive.

Javon is a legitimately special passer. To me, this is what really distinguishes him from Walter Clayton Jr. Javon has a four year sample of leading offenses, with a career 31% assist rate on 26.3% usage. That’s good for career 1.7 A:TO, which is fairly good but not quite elite for position. Javon isn’t necessarily TO prone (< 20% TO rate), but he’s played on some really bad offenses where he was the main point of focus. He played 8 games with Tucker DeVries, and he played a full season with freshman Eric Dailey/Brandon Garrison at Oklahoma State: he really hasn’t played with anyone else who will even come close to accumulating low-leverage NBA minutes. Not only does he have the handle to consistently evade pressure, but he’s probably one of the best in the nation at forcing high value passes out of doubles. 

Another sneaky indicator of Javon’s feel is his uber-low foul rate. He has just 2.0 FC/40 over a 97 game career sample. This 24 player list of drafted prospects that didn’t foul despite high volume steals and don’t turn it over despite high volume passing is very favorable, including NBA finals headliners Shai, Hali, and Nembhard.

Throw on his high flying athleticism, and you can start to see why Javon might be able to break the small guard drought. 

While he unsurprisingly measured as a smaller guard, with 6’1 shoeless height and 6’5 wingspan, his hands are abnormally wide at 9.75 inches. Javon tested very well, with the third-highest max and standing vert out of all 2025 combine participants. His lane agility, shuttle, and sprint times were all within the t15 at the combine; Drake Powell was the only other prospect to finish top 15 in all 3 of these speed categories.

Combine testing is nice, but how good of a functional athlete is Javon?

Javon is a career 54% rim finisher, and he had just 7 dunks in the 65 games before this season. These are important red flags, but they also hide the horrible offensive contexts where Javon has hooped. His career splits are a strong divergence from his stats this year: Javon racked up a whopping 15 dunks in just 32 games and shot 62.2% at the rim. While this could be handwaved as another senior guard making an undeserved production leap as he finally reaches median college age, it’s Javon’s continued strong production versus legit good teams that has me more accepting of this late career improvement.

WCJ and Javon Small vs t75 Comp

In games vs top 75 comp, Javon was on fire at the rim. He was still at nearly one dunk every two games, and his finishing efficiency actually rose. To compare, Clayton played more minutes and took more 3s, but even if we adjust for rim attempts and minutes, it’s clear that Javon dunked and finished far better.

While this was still nowhere near an ideal context, the resiliency of Javon’s finishing and dunking is indicates that Javon’s career numbers may be an underestimate of his true finishing ability. The underestimate makes sense because of how horrible his former teams were.

It should also be noted that no one really expected this year’s West Virginia to be even this good. To be clear, West Virginia should have made the tourney this year, and they were definitely underrated by most fans. This is corroborated by the majority of the metrics that the NCAA selection committee utilizes, as well as their reasonable Quad 1 record. And Javon was a big part of why West Virginia was able to stay in the tournament mix despite a team with low talent index and the season-ending injury of star Tucker Devries. 

The on/off stats support this; I have not seen more violent on/off splits for any prospect this cycle. In garbage-adjusted splits vs top 200 teams: West Virginia was adjusted 113.2 points per 100 with Javon on, and scored 80 points per 100 with Javon off. I don’t know the percentiles, but scoring adjusted 80 points per 100 possessions has got to be something like the bottom 5th percentile. This 33 point offensive swing is insane. In every single facet, West Virginia’s offense fell precipitously with Javon off.

Even the West Virginia defense was far better with Javon on than off, with a massive 4 point defensive turnover swing with Javon on, and reasonably good -1.4 defensive real on-off. Javon is a pretty good on-ball defender, and much of this has to do with his frame. He has a large chest and is built well for 6’2. Despite shouldering such a heavy offensive load, he played hard on D. He ended this season with 2.6% steal rate and 1.1% block rate- that block rate is especially notable for his size and its a testament to his run/jump athleticism. 

Javon is one of the best undersized senior guard prospects of the last decade. That much is clear. He has one of the best skill, athleticism, and shooting integrations we have seen for a small guard; simply put, this is one of the best small guards we have really seen.

The question is, how much do we tax Javon for his archetype? Despite strong on/off swings, it is likely that Javon will be a liability on defense just by virtue of his size, and at best he would be a neutral. He showcased strong dunk and finishing goodness, but we can’t forget he was 54% at the rim and 38 FTR across his college career: this is subpar finishing in an era where the few rare small guard prospects are predominantly high end finishers and/or foul-drawers. How do we value an elite iteration of a low EV, unfavorable archetype?

I’ve been a Javon fan this entire cycle, yet I’ve had to slowly move him down my board as I’ve come to grapple with the realities of his archetype. An elite athlete with high feel who shoots at a ridiculous clip should be considered one of the best prospects in the draft. But historically, this combination of size and age is not favorable, and his career finishing issues are another testament to the difficulty of translation.

I’ve been fairly optimistic throughout this report, so I’ll end on a more pessimistic note.

In just 4 filters, I’ve given you a resounding bust query. Players who don’t finish, draw fouls, or crash the boards while also not avoiding TOs at an elite level usually fail to hit meaningful outcomes in the NBA. Isaiah Joe is probably the best player here (by roughly scanning for peak EPM), but was on the edge of the finishing query, and he is also 6’5. He also plays a very specific niche as a super high volume 3P specialist that is difficult to replicate.

This is one of the central bust queries to my draft philosophy for a reason, as it highlights the importance of high level positional finishing to make up for other skill deficiencies . Some other players in the 2025 NBA draft that qualify: Tre Johnson, Walter Clayton Jr, RJ Davis, LJ Cryer, Caleb Love, and John Poulakidas. Obviously, this could mean nothing at all; Javon is definitely one of the best shooters listed, and he’s not too far from the FTR and A:TO cutoffs. But it highlights the slim margins of success that small guards face in today’s NBA. 

Javon is one of the most talented players in this draft, and he has the ability to make it out of small guard purgatory. The odds are stacked against him, but if he’s given real opportunity, I am confident that he will surprise many. When’s the next time we’ll see an elite floor-raising creator, elite athlete, and elite shooter all in one?

Avinash Chauhan