Scoot Henderson is the next _______________!
How quickly did your brain fill in that blank and with which star’s name? Derrick Rose and Russell Westbrook, two MVPs, often come up in comparison to Scoot. Is that, in any way, fair to Scoot?
Scoot has the skills and physical tools to be an amazing player but we simply don’t know if he will reach MVP heights in the NBA. So why do we immediately compare him to two MVPs?
Why Do We Make Player Comparisons?
Our brains are designed to save us mental energy through shortcuts called cognitive biases. Many of these biases influence which NBA players come to mind when watching prospects.
- The availability heuristic makes us prefer the immediate examples that pop into our heads over better-fitting and more nuanced ones.
- Survivorship bias has us focus on successful NBA players while ignoring those who weren’t successful.
- The mere-exposure effect biases us toward the players with whom we are most familiar. And we are most familiar with successful NBA players.
- The salience bias leads us to focus on the most prominent and visible (ie successful) players over average players.
These four cognitive biases drive us to compare prospects to successful NBA players even when most prospects won’t be successful in the NBA. A fifth bias called the anchoring effect strengthens the hold these unfair player comparisons have on us. A player comparison anchors our perception of that prospect to that reference point.
Our very own brains are designed to want to make player comparisons and that is a very bad thing for players.
The Truth About NBA Draft History
The cold hard truth is most players drafted don’t have successful NBA careers.
I looked at 30 draft classes from when the NBA draft became just two rounds in 1989 up through 2018. In that time 1742 players were drafted. If you had to guess, how many of those players found NBA success?
- Only 10% of the players in those 30 drafts have been All-Stars.
- Only 6% have made an All-NBA team.
- Only 4% have made an All-Defensive team.
- Only 1% have been named Defensive Player of the Year.
- Only 1% have been named Most Valuable Player.
But those measures are for the best of the NBA of course the odds are low. And those aren’t the only criteria for NBA success you might say. And you’d be right.
Of those 1742 players over three decades of drafts, only 27% had a 10+ season NBA career. And only 53% of them made it to year five in their NBA careers.
That’s right. Almost half of those players drafted did not last longer than a current rookie scale deal.
The cold hard truth is most players drafted don’t have successful NBA careers.
Our brains compel us to compare draft prospects to successful NBA players despite the FACT that most prospects will not find NBA success. This is a problem.
How Player Comparisons Hurt
Since most prospects don’t go on to have NBA success and most player comparisons are to successful NBA players we are just setting unrealistic expectations.
The NBA is already a high-pressure environment but it is magnified when people expect you to be the “next _____.” These unrealistic expectations can actively work against the player.
Based on a player comparison the coach may put a player in a role they are not ready for and then cut their minutes when they can’t live up to the unfair expectation. In a game where confidence and rhythm are massively important, an unrealistic player comparison can really set a player back.
The media and fans can turn the pressure up to 11 by unfairly labeling a player as a bust. And, failure to live up to unrealistic expectations can lead the front office to trade them or not offer a second contract.
Furthermore, disappointment from players unable to live up to unrealistic player comparisons can impact scouts too. The confidence decision makers have in your ability slips as might your job security.
There is clearly a real problem with player comparisons, so why do people use them?
How Player Comparisons Can Help
A picture is worth a thousand words and a comparison to something familiar can cut through a 5,000+ word scouting report. Putting a prospect’s evaluation in terms the audience already understands can communicate your point quickly and more clearly. Since a scout’s job is to convince the General Manager which player to bet literal millions on, being able to tie an evaluation to a successful NBA player the GM already likes can be the thing that makes your guy their guy.
I’ve experienced this secondhand myself. One time an NBA executive invited me to go on a scouting trip with him. He mentioned how he was struggling to convince the GM to sign the player he thought was the cure to one of their ills.
They needed a dirty work physical enforcer to protect their star. I said, “It sounds like you could use an Oakley type.” He got excited by this and said that framing could seal the deal with the GM.
He used that comparison to convince the GM to sign the player. That player came in mid-season and wound up playing the 6th most minutes in the most successful playoffs the franchise had since the 90s.
So player comparisons can help but often lead to unrealistic expectations that hurt. How should we proceed?
How Do We Fix The Problem?
The safest approach would be to eliminate player comparisons completely. However, I do think there is a compromise here we can make. If you are going to use a player comparison just make it very specific.
Instead of just dropping a name be specific about which of the prospect’s skills and attributes actually remind you of that player.
Saying Ben McLemore reminds you of Ray Allen sets the unrealistic expectation of living up to a Hall of Famer with a much more developed game. As a prospect, Ben McLemore was praised for his smooth shooting mechanics and exciting athletic bounce. This combination of skill and physical traits reminded a lot of people of UCONN and Bucks-era Ray Allen.
But instead of saying that those specific skills and traits reminded them of young Ray Allen people just compared him straight up to Ray Allen. Of course, Ray Allen was very skilled at creating his own looks off the dribble which McLemore struggled with. This general player comparison to Ray Allen set vastly higher expectations than Ben McLemore could realistically meet.
At the end of his rookie scale contract Sacramento declined to offer him the qualifying offer to make him a restricted free agent. The team that was so excited to draft him at #7 four years earlier felt he hadn’t lived up to expectations and was moving on. To date, Ben McLemore has had a nine-season NBA career while playing 556 games for five different teams.
General player comparisons set unreasonable expectations that often hurt a prospect’s career. Avoid using them or, at least, be very specific about what exactly reminds you of another player. Saying Ben McLemore’s shot mechanics and athleticism remind you of Ray Allen communicates your point without expecting him to be the second coming of Jesus . . . Shuttlesworth.
Final Thoughts
Our brains are designed to make us want to compare prospects to successful NBA players. But most prospects do not find NBA success. These unrealistic expectations hurt players’ careers. If you do use player comparisons, be specific about exactly which aspects remind you of the other player.
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