Getting back into the public NBA Draft sphere again, I thought it would be a good exercise (and an easier way to generate new content) to review some of my old reports from nearly 3 years ago to see what I got right and what I got wrong, and delve into why. Draft philosophy may have changed, stances and opinions may have changed, but these reports are a documentation of a moment in time of my thoughts and observations. This series should provide plenty of lessons.
The first prospect I wanted to hit was one of my favorite prospects of 2021: Herb Jones of the Alabama Crimson Tide. I caught onto Herb late in the cycle, and was enamored with his defense and sneaky offensive skillset despite the sketchy shooting projection. But the more I dug into Herb, the more I fell in love with his game, and a piece of personal Draft philosophy was borne out of his Draft case.
Taking a look back at the report from 2021 (which you can find at the end of this piece), one note for the physical profile is that while I described Herb’s build as “slender/lean,” it is certainly now evident that he was more wiry than slender. He was strong despite the thinner build, but I also think some of those attributes were captured in the movement skills section. The lateral ability was the most noteworthy aspect of his feet, but I probably underrated the footspeed. I think where Herb was particularly special was how adaptive his flexibility was for contorting and staying in front of ball-handlers. He had all the movement skills in the world to adjust his positioning fluidly and with such coordination. The other big translatable movement skill was the contact balance. Great offensive players in the NBA will put a shoulder into you and bump you off balance, and Herb was a master at absorbing the contact and remaining tight to the ball-handler, and that is something that has shined at the next level, where Herb has been a menace sticking to players.
Moving into the context of his Draft year, Herb was very decorated in his last season at Alabama, earning third-team All-American honors as well as dominating the SEC’s awards, being selected first-team All-SEC and receiving not only the SEC Player of the Year but also the SEC Defensive Player of the Year. And it was all well-deserved, competing at a high level on both ends of the floor. I also don’t think we should gloss over the fact that Herb was on the SEC Academic Honor Roll every year at Alabama, which I feel has to be an indicator of being a hard worker off the court as well. In retrospect, that should not be overlooked. On top of all that, Nate Oats praised Herb for his “lunch pail” and “hard hat” culture-setting. Point being, Herb had a lot of intangibles going for him, and he turn those intangibles into concrete stats: Herb is the school record-holder for charges taken for both single-season and career. It was clear that Herb was about all the right things. Intangibles are not the be-all end-all, but they should definitely reinforce the positive aspects a prospect brings to the table.
Looking at the shooting profile at the time of the Draft, I think it was more than fair and so far pretty accurate that the shot projection was “somewhat unlikely/mostly stationary.” The free throw percentages improved over the course of his college career, but still landing at a woeful 60.4% career FT%. Herb has blown past that free throw hang-up, as he is now just over 82% from the line in the NBA on almost 500 attempts. I did not have that on my 2021 Draft bingo card, and I think is a testament to his work ethic (and also his fortunate landing spot in New Orleans with shooting coach Fred Vinson). But that is a literal free shot. I would certainly hope for professional basketball players to hit that 70% threshold.
As for the 3pt shooting, Herb only had one season of semi-worthwhile volume, his last season, and it still wasn’t even that many attempts. But he did shoot his best percentage at a very viable 35%. Although it did follow the line of improvement he was showing at the free throw line, it was not to any convincing degree. Many of the attempts were dares, and the speed of the shot really took up all the time he was given. I was not sure about how he would be able to speed up the release once the efficiency improved enough, as he had a lot going on with his shot, with some funkiness and contrasting variables. Full credit to Herb for ironing it out; it may have made his career.
The handle is what I felt was an underrated skill of Herb’s at the time. He exhibited plenty of competency putting it on the deck, and particularly in a variety of ways. Not only was Herb proficient attacking closeouts and pushing in transition, there were even PnR operations where Herb navigated a tight paint before making a play, which I found very impressive from someone of Herb’s height. Keeping that dribble secured and protected when you’re that tall can be quite a challenge, and Herb looked comfortable in that congested space. Not to say Herb should have been projected as a PnR operator (capable but not a featured part of his game), but seeing him handle like that was another indication of coordination, which was evident in his defensive movement mentioned earlier.
Herb’s size and frame boded well in my opinion for how his finishing would translate to the league. Not the most explosive finisher, Herb’s length really aided him. He could dunk with ease without the need for premier vertical athleticism. The length also helped in his layup package, being able to extend for finishes. In addition to his length, Herb’s foot placement on the way to the rim were smooth, purposeful and adept. He was able to use footwork to find better finishing windows, and the creativity to get there was noteworthy and another indication of coordination. Still, there were a fair amount of worrisome aspects to his finishing; some finishes were a bit clunky and there were concerning instances of bad touch right at the rim. Despite those concerns, Herb still attacked the rim aggressively and drew fouls, which was also encouraging to see that his poor historical free throw numbers did not influence his aggression. The way that I tried to project Herb’s finishing was to base it around his lengthy 6’8 frame. The finishing numbers were not great, and the touch was unwieldy, but moving Herb into much more of a supportive role would mean Herb’s rim attempts would probably become a couple degrees easier, on top of having advantageous length to finish with (plus, any open finish for him could become a quick and easy dunk). He had already displayed an array of finishing capabilities, it just needed refinement. In the league, Herb has soaked up some efficiency by being a relentless transition threat, either running the lane or taking it coast-to-coast himself if not picked up. Also, Herb has done incredibly well turning defense into easy offense for himself.
Moving onto the passing, Herb again showed versatility. He could make all the simple reads, but also make some higher difficultly passes. At his size, Herb could get the ball to a lot of different places on the floor, but one of his more impressive elements was the interior, tight-space passing. At 6’8, it is a challenge to attack the paint, have enough body control to attack without being careless, have quick enough processing to react to the help defense appropriately and complete the play with a pass on-the-move in a timely manner, on-target. That is a lot to ask of someone that height, and Herb passed with flying colors. Again, another point of reference of his coordination.
This retrospective look at Herb Jones is going in order of how the report is laid out, and there has already been so much to like about his Draft case, and we are only now touching on his specialty: defense. The movement skills section seemed to underrate some of Herb’s capabilities, but I think those movement skills were so pronounced on the defensive end, particularly at the POA, where his foot placement navigating screens was pristine. In addition to how well he moved his feet, Herb was able to utilize his length to be disruptive, but what made that more impressive was how he remained in a deep stance while reaching. Many players lack balance when they go for those steals, exposing themselves badly when they miss. Herb was able to take those risks while staying solid and sliding his feet, which is truly an underrated athletic feat. Sitting in a stance is tiring enough, and adding the elements of live reactive defense while also going for steals is too much to ask for most players. Herb is not most defenders.
At the time, Herb was lauded for his defense. And while lock-down defender was definitely in the cards for him, his off-ball defense was what made Herb such a complete defender, and a havoc to play against. Lots of players use time as an off-ball defender to relax. Herb was just as intense on-ball and off. Highly active on digs and swipes at drivers, and highly reactive to rotate, Herb plugged so many drives and discouraged many others. The floor shrunk with him on defense. He was maniacally helpful, seemingly never taking a moment off or letting the opponent get anything easy or for free. Herb was the epitome of intrinsic, playing with all the pride in the world.
His defensive impact didn’t stop there, as Herb even helped out protecting the rim. His reactivity, timing and coordination culminated in some spectacular challenges at the rim. He was willing and unafraid of any consequences. High steal and block numbers throughout his college career, Herb was a devastating defensive play-maker. His competitive spirit could not be detained.
Overall, it was difficult to remain completely objective with Herb at the time, as I am a sucker for a high-level defensive competitor, and the intangibles were so strong. As for most players, the swing skill was the shot, which I have been right and wrong about. I was wrong about the shot projection, as he has been a suitable spacer. I do believe I was right to be skeptical about the likelihood though, but also more importantly that the Draft argument for Herb was that if (BIG if) the shot hit, he is an immediate starter due to the elite defense. The Pelicans selected him at 35, but I do think his defensive talent warranted a higher Draft slot. What does Herb look like without a respectable shot? It is possible he is still an important piece to a competitive team as a defensive solution (although that may require pretty great spacing around him to compensate for the lack of shooting). Herb was truly up there in terms of best defender in the class, with the likes of defensive savant Evan Mobley.
What I got most right: the all-encompassing elite defense, well-rounded ball skills (outside of shooting) and coordinated movement skills
What I got most wrong: the shot – turned out better than I expected, but in the realm of what I would have hoped for
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