Understanding Amari Allen

I am new to NBA Draft Analysis, having initially been an X’s and O’s writer. I will be writing on my process in the future, but to give a very brief breakdown, I’d describe it as an intensive film-based process that is often built on the back of a strong numbers base. That is a slight word salad and you’ll get more on that approach in either April or May, but largely I hone in on specific areas that I believe Data-based approaches under-capture: particularly in driving, and processing on both sides of the ball, though my film watching will cover all variables.

As I go through this intense process, I normally have one or two players who stand out to me. Not because I like or dislike them, but because I find them to be particularly testing for my process. This year, it is fair to say that Amari Allen from Alabama fits the bill.

Allen has some serious fans within the Draft-sphere. Per Jon Chepkevich who just released his annual ‘consensus board‘, Allen ranks 24th. That may not seem overly high, but there are some high placements in there. In the model of our very own Wafe, Allen comes in in 6th place. One of my favourite Twitter follows, JPR from The Center Hub, has him ranked 8th. Any player will have fans at well above consensus, but I believe it’s fair to call Allen polarising.

The high-end sell of Amari Allen is that he is an ambidextrous player who can pass, drive, and shoot, and processes well. While watching his film, I found myself sitting somewhere in the middle. I see a player with tools, but who needs to sharpen some of them to make an impact in the NBA. I wouldn’t call the value theoretical, as he is objectively a good player, but I ran into some issues on the film despite the statistical profile seeming well-rounded.

I will go much deeper throughout the piece, but I want to give a basic outline up front. I largely believe he has capabilities as a pass, drive, and shoot player, but the driving is underdeveloped right now. I also believe the defense is solid positionally, which explains why he has solid numbers for both blocks and steals, but I don’t see him as a major disruptor on that end, even if I believe his physical tools are quite enticing. Largely, the driving is where I hope to see development and why I ultimately want him to return.

Amari Allen’s Role

There’s a good argument to be made that Nate Oats is the best offensive mind in the entirety of basketball. Others may have more exotic schemes, but in terms of putting things into practice and getting the best out of his players, Oats is probably the best I’ve seen. It sometimes means we deem Bama players as having more of a ceiling than they show, largely because he puts them in such an optimised role.

Allen’s role is largely what I’d call a perimeter attacker. He isn’t the lead creator, and there aren’t necessarily pet sets for him, but his job is to drive off the catch, attack closeouts, and be a rim finisher. It’s a good use of his shooting ability and his above-average court mapping. Below is a good visual of his role from the excellent Hoop Explorer site.

As you can see, he’s attacking, kicking the ball out, and working in transition. Oats rarely asks him to take dribble jumpers and he almost never gets to showcase any kind of in-between game, because a Nate Oats offense drastically cuts down on those shots and disincentivises them.

Part of his role is also being a secondary Pick-And-Roll ball handler, which I deem to be an area for improvement. Per Synergy, he is in the 62nd percentile for frequency of all PNR plays (including passes), but in the 44th percentile for efficiency. This number drops to 15th percentile when the ‘defense commits’, which essentially just means when they play man to man defense and commit to guarding both the roller and the ball-handler, with traps and hedges being calculated separately.

So, Allen is being asked to drive quite often, with Oats asking him to do it from a lot of different scenarios that involve both with and without ball screens. This is good for a film student because it means we get to see the full picture, which isn’t a luxury with other players who can often play for coaches or in situations that suppress certain things we need to see. The question is, what does the film tell me?

Amari Allen’s Driving and Finishing

Let’s start with the raw driving before we get into the nitty-gritty of Pick-And-Roll play.

Allen’s driving is largely a bit of a rollercoaster. He’s strong and has flashed some incredibly impressive moves when he gets inside the arc. Where it can be adventurous is before we reach that point, as he can sometimes struggle to generate separation.

Just to give a note for the reader, I do not start clipping stuff until I have formed my overall take. I watch everything, form an opinion, then pick clips that back up my opinions. Watching film to anchor biases or to look for the truth you want is bad process.

Below is a play from the game against Auburn.

Allen pump-fakes to get Pettiford in the air, but struggles to gain any kind of separation while driving left, and ends up throwing up a pass that was never on. He doesn’t seem to be comfortable going to any kind of decel move, which is a problem as he doesn’t often separate at the top of the drive.

Generally speaking, he struggled against physicality at the point of attack, but was better against it around the basket. Here’s another example from a game against Clemson.

Allen drives from the slot, first trying to go left but going right after getting nowhere. He seems to generally prefer going to the right on film. He gets decent territory inside the paint, but never really compromises the defender at any point, and after trying a move, he ends up throwing up a wild shot that gets blocked.

Allen is strong, which means he can sometimes generate position as a driver. It’s just quite often not the most convincing endeavour. The play below against Kentucky illustrates this further.

Allen attempts to drive, but generates little separation, which means Jaland Lowe can just poke the ball out from behind him because he’s able to both stop the drive and not be overly worried about Allen going to a second move in the half-court.

A notable part of Amari Allen’s profile compared to others I’ve watched is that he attempts to be ambidextrous. This is likely good for his long-term development, even if it nukes his efficiency in the short-term. The reason I’m bringing this up is that, while a lot of the struggles come from driving left, I feel they are notable when going right, and I would not say he’s a standstill separator or anything like that.

Here’s an example of another problem when driving left that relates to a few things.

Allen gets a good (possibly illegal) flat ball screen and powers past his man, but, even though there is almost no rim protection, takes his attempt very wide to the left and ends up completely missing. While he struggles separating at the top of the drive, it feels as if the handle when he gets into these areas can be quite inconsistent, though it does show up more when he drives to the left.

On the topic of his ambidextrous nature, I hand-tracked all of his layups on the year. He is shooting 61 percent on right-handed layups (33/54), and 45 percent on left-handed layups (11/24). There are occasions when he’s able to get the ball to his right-hand even while driving to the left, but if it’s a left-handed attempt, he is much less comfortable on the whole.

Where it gets more murky is that a lot of his best finishes are in transition. Per CBB Analytics, Allen is shooting just 44 percent on two-pointers in the Half-Court which is 23rd percentile across D1 Basketball.

Though he isn’t much of a separator with his dribble moves or with a first step, I do believe it’s notable and important that he’s able to be strong against other wings. He can, however, struggle more against big guys such as on this rep against Thomas Haugh.

Where the driving becomes interesting is that there are some seriously impressive flashes. Flashes are a buzzword that can definitely rile some draft scouts, particularly on the spreadsheet side of Twitter. I largely agree with these critiques, however, I’m not going to completely ignore some very good stuff with his drives due to his age and his room for improvement. Below is my favourite drive from his tape so far.

Allen sizes up his cross-match in transition and completely shreds him. He gets low (which is something I look for when I’m analysing handle), then shows agility to get back into the lane. Compare that to the lefty layup against Mississippi State, and it’s night and day.

This one against Clemson is also impressive. He gets the switch on a PNR, and his screener largely doesn’t give him much to work with. He then power steps and crosses back into a Eurostep and finishes off the glass. If he gets into the paint with some kind of force behind him, he does have some very capable east-west moves. The question I keep circling back to is how often will he reach these areas.

This one against Arkansas is also great. He really seems to get a lot of force when driving into the paint, so it gives him more power whenever he goes to his East-West moves.

Let’s, however, compare what this looks like when going to his left.

Bama throws him the ball at the elbow on the out-of-bounds play, essentially giving him an Isolation. He sends his man darting backwards, but he doesn’t quite have the same comfort when he is on his left. One factor I may want to consider here is that Nate Oats doesn’t like his players taking any kind of mid-range shot. When watching this play, I wonder if Allen would have felt more comfortable with a turnaround jumper after sending Tyler Nickel flying. Instead, we get a tough left-handed miss.

The driving is largely an area where Allen needs work, but there are some tools there that make me think he may put it together. It’s probably the main reason I hope he returns. He’s strong, I’d just like to see more efficiency on the drives and possibly some way of separating that isn’t just pure strength.

On the topic of driving, it makes sense to dive into his finishing. I noted earlier that his desire to be ambidextrous slightly nerfs his overall percentages. But it would be fair to say that his finishing profile is quite average overall. It’s above average at a push, but the main reason for it is that he doesn’t possess the handle to make things easier on himself at the rim. As mentioned previously, he’s shooting 45 percent on 2s in the Half-Court.

One thing I do appreciate about Allen is that he gets good hangtime on his layup attempts. There appears to be more difficulty with self-created ones, but I feel this is a notable factor in projecting future improvement. Here’s a good play below.

Alabama runs the Noah LaRoche ‘Wheel’ Pattern in early offense. Allen sinks to the corner, attacks the closeout, and finishes strong through the rim protector. In these tilted or short-manned floor situations, I feel the finishing shows up a little better. While we should expect this, I still believe it to be notable. Below is another example.

This one comes in early offense, but Allen drives past his man with a crossover and gets good hang time before finishing off the glass. He’s athletic and capable of finishing through contact. Something I will note is that I’m often not a fan of indexing on ‘flashes’. An experienced scout once told me, to my shock, that ‘Jonathan Isaac Movement Shooting Flashes exist’. However, there are enough of these from Allen for me not to be completely out on him as a finisher, though the first level of driving needs work. Here are a few more.

They run Elbow Chicago, and he dives to the rim after screening and finishes through contact. Again, a play did the early legwork for him, but he still managed to finish the play for Alabama.

Here is a play against one of the very best.

After some early offense broke down, Bama swung the ball back to Allen at the top of the key. He gets a clear lane, and, even though that’s a relevant factor, I still find it impressive that he goes right through Ruben Chinyelu for the easy finish.

Something I will also add to this is that Amari Allen was seriously drawing fouls at the start of the year, which makes sense when you consider his hang time and the physicality he sometimes shows. This has declined in recent games. Amari Allen missed the final 2 games of February with an injury. Since then, per BartTorvik, his FTR is down to 29.1, which is a drastic drop off from the 45.2 he was rocking previously. You could argue that the off-ball strength-based finishing and foul drawing are the best part of his scoring profile, so this is something to monitor. He’s only attempted one free throw in his last three games.

Something I do see as a pattern is that his better flashes seem to come when Bama are spaced out in five-out. Being in five-out does not automatically equate to spacing, but it does appear he is more comfortable as a driver and finisher when things are already tilted for him.

Allen isn’t a guy I project to be a high-volume driver as of now; there isn’t enough evidence of separation on the film. I, however, see enough to believe he could be a decent play finisher on offense. It’s just a question of how good the numbers get.

The reason I bring this up is that I believe Amari Allen’s best half-court reps came as a PNR Roll man. It wasn’t something they leaned into all that often, but when they do, it is very effective and showcases some of his talents. Firstly, he just shows good feel for when to dive or roll, which matters. Not all screeners are equal no matter their dimensions.

Here’s a simple look at it. Bama goes to a guard screening action, and Allen makes the simple read to the corner.

They went to it in a game against Texas, as well.

They run ‘Ram’ action, and Allen hangs in the air before making the dump off pass to the big man for an easy finish.

While this action often led to Allen getting potential assists, there were times when he was strong finishing through contact on these play-types, too, such as below.

Bama runs ‘Ram Exit’ with a smallball lineup. Allen gets the ball on the roll, gets met with size, but steps through him and scores the layup.

Allen has also hit threes out of these play types too, showing good feel for when to move, and he has decent shooting numbers and good shooting mechanics on the whole.

Ultimately, where I find myself gravitating towards with Amari Allen is envisioning him as a diverse play finisher. The NBA is changing a lot. The days of standstill high PNR are over. Will Hardy and Quin Snyder popularised ‘5 slot’, which involves putting your center on the wing, something Duke has now made their core half-court offense. What this effectively means is that bigs are doing perimeter stuff, and there is more room for wings and even guards to be play finishers.

Teams would not specifically run plays for Allen unless he was picked very high, but I feel that a team who has guard or wing screens as part of their Half-Court offense, such as Charlotte, Boston, or Indiana, might benefit from such a player. I try and see a path for any player I scout, and I feel this is the best possible path I currently see for him. If he returns, this may change. The idea of Allen joining a guard-screening heavy team and working inside off-the-ball is the best path I see on offense as of now. Effectively, for a team running a modern 5-out offense, can he be a shooter and screener who finishes inside?

Where that sell gets more complex is that his current numbers, while not bad, are not truly elite. There are logical reasons to talk yourself into them improving, but to what extent is the great question you must answer if you’re going to buy into my idea of him being a play finisher.

Amari Allen’s Processing

My biggest hesitancy with regards to projecting Allen into a larger offensive role is that his processing on offense is quite inconsistent. I take Synergy percentiles with a pinch of salt largely because they can be mistracked and only include actions where the player ended up shooting or turning the ball over, when there are realistically more than those outcomes.

However, one that really stood out to me was that Amari Allen is in the 14th percentile as a PNR Ball Handler when the ‘defense commits’. From watching every one of these clips, I concluded that it means when the handler and the roller are both accounted for by one defender. This particular playlist does include plays where he passes, so it’s not entirely on him, and Alabama doesn’t really have the most athletic center room.

He can often make very scripted reads that lead to turnovers.

Alabama runs Ram 77 Empty Exit, a nasty play that is almost guaranteed to lead to a good shot.

Allen doesn’t show much comfort despite basically having every option available to him. He has the opportunity to shoot himself, hit the roll man, or even make a quick dump-off pass to the three-point shooter. He instead stares down the roll man, and Krivas gets the steal. This admittedly is a very good Arizona team, but it was incredibly obvious where Allen wanted to go with the ball.

Here’s a similar example below against Mississippi State.

They run a PNR with a wide ball screen on the weak side, admittedly one that isn’t perfectly set, but it’s enough to occupy everyone. Allen gets into the lane but misses his window to Taylor Bol Bowen, which allows the defense time to recover. He also goes for a jump pass, but there wasn’t anything on the weak side to sell, so it just telegraphed where he wanted to go.

Let’s watch below:

For anyone who read my Javon Small piece last year, you’ll note that I quoted Jake Rosen, who said that a good way to spot a faulty processor is to watch how often they stare down the first reads as opposed to reacting to what they’re seeing. Here’s a good example. Bama runs a simple high PNR. The corner man tags aggressively, which gives Allen a clear window to skip to the corner. Instead, he missed it, and ended up picking up his dribble and turning it over. Sometimes you only get one window. Elite creators can open more windows, but most can’t.

Allen’s handle isn’t outright bad, but there are times it can slow his processing a little. Think of it like sometimes you think of things before your body can actually execute them. This play is a good example.

Allen misses Bol Bowen on the roll, then misses him again when he tries to go left. He ends up getting stuck in no man’s land and tries to hit a backdoor cut to a player who is out of bounds. Sure, the off-ball Bama players don’t cover themselves in glory, but he also can dribble himself into these spots sometimes where it becomes a lot more difficult. If you miss windows, it’s sometimes hard to get them re-opened.

Sometimes the problems are caused by the fact that because Allen doesn’t consistently separate at the top of his drives, the reads are murkier, as defenders will play closer to their off-ball assignments if they know their teammate has it. But he does also just miss reads and sometimes struggles to move through possessions in PNR. I do not project him to be much of a PNR threat as of now, he’s better in more ancillary play-types.

I am not meaning to hold Amari Allen to the standard of a primary. I more just want to challenge the notion of someone being a ‘pass, drive and shoot’ player as I feel it’s an overused description of players. He’s capable of driving, I just don’t quite know how good the processing is, and it’s notably at its worst in PNR situations. This largely matters if someone is going to be a drive-heavy player, which many project Allen as.

Defense

To say Alabama has struggled defensively would be quite the understatement. They lack rim deterrence and have taken some big scorelines this season. Despite this, Amari Allen has been relatively solid. He’s above 2 percent for block and steal rates, which is a good summary about how I feel about him as a defender currently. I don’t believe he’s elite, but he is very positionally solid. I would feel comfortable saying I’ve barely seen him get beaten off-ball. On a team with the defensive lows Alabama can have, this is notable.

Allen is positionally sound, and his best plays have come as a nail helper or as a low-man, such as below:

Clemson runs Delay Chicago: a staple yet very effective play. Allen keeps his eye on the driving guard despite his man clearing for 3, and when he crosses over, Allen instantly shifts to come up with an incredible block. He gets good verticality generally and doesn’t seem to have much trouble with his timing. Below is possibly my favourite defensive play of the cycle.

Amari Allen is initially the low man and flies out to contest Meleek Thomas. Thomas sidesteps him, but in basically the same motion, Allen jumps from a standstill and blocks Thomas’ shot with his right hand. The verticality is genuinely very impressive. He strikes me as the type of defender who would really thrive in a Tom Thibodeau-style defensive scheme where he’s being aggressive at the nail and then jumping out to shooters on the weak side.

As a scheme-driven defender, I think he can be a really good player for an NBA team. He’s strong and genuinely did well in quite a tough defensive context. The steal and block numbers being decent rather than elite kind of match up to what I’ve watched on film. He’s positionally sound and doesn’t chase stuff, and gets his actions by doing his job.

The only real issue I found with him defensively is that he’s a little bit worse at the point of action than you’d want. He can be caught off guard by screens quite often; it’s a definite pattern.

Auburn runs an angled Spain PNR to an empty side. It’s a difficult play to stop, but just focus on Allen here. He’s completely blindsided by the screen because he’s not playing with his head on a swivel. The reason I can be lenient on defense is that I do believe it’s a team sport, and that’s often misunderstood in individual analysis. But Allen did have plenty of plays like this where he was so hyper-focused on his man that a screen completely blindsided him. Most modern NBA Defenses don’t want to give up any kind of middle penetration, so it’s an issue to iron out, even if it is really the only issue I have with his defense.

Here’s a similar example against Auburn.

Auburn runs a pick-and-roll from the slot. Allen is guarding Pettiford, which isn’t an easy task for anyone, but particularly wings, as Pettiford is so crafty at the top of his drives. Allen again doesn’t have much awareness of the fact that he is about to be screened, which gives Pettiford an easy route downhill. Once you have a 4-on-3 with someone of Pettiford’s craft on the ball, it is largely over. Bama does well to delay him, but eventually the player guarded by the nail helper scores an easy one at the rim.

Overall, don’t take this as nitpicking. I just want to create a full picture. Allen is a good defender. I don’t know if I see an All-NBA type ceiling, but I’d expect him to be comfortably above average. He’s strong, has good instincts, and has good timing, which meshes well with his ability to get vertical very quickly. The point-of-action defense is a concern I have, but it might not be something that’s tested all that often. As a helper, he will be NBA-level from day one.

Concluding Thoughts

Overall, Amari Allen is probably the most interesting player I’ve watched so far. When you browse Draft Twitter or even places like Reddit and Discord, you’ll find a lot of takes and quick-fire slogans about players. I mentioned some, such as ‘pass drive and shoot wing’ and ‘ambidextrous slasher’, which I saw. There is some truth in these, but I always aspire to go deeper with my analysis where I can.

My ultimate take is that I have concerns about what the offensive role looks like at the next level, from an upside perspective. As of now, the top of his drives are quite underdeveloped, even if there are some nice east-west flashes. I will, however, note that NBA offense isn’t 4 people taking turns to drive from standstill positions. But it’s fair to question the offensive role when the shooting and rim numbers are only ‘good,’ and he’s yet to show a tonne in the half-court outside of ‘flashes’. Being a top-end creator, even as a third option, does require some form of standout skill, and I don’t know what Allen’s is yet.

He will likely be good at the ancillary stuff as he can rebound, hit spot-up threes, and has good feel as a screener. Guard screening is definitely becoming more viable and important with the rise of 5-slot and inverted offenses in the modern NBA, but it’s also fair to say the floor for being good offensively seems to get higher every year.

What I keep coming back to long-term is that his profile is well-rounded, and that seems to matter. I’m nowhere near the Bart Querier of someone such as Avi or Finn, but I will post this one that I checked was ethical.

He can do a lot of things quite well. It’s not unreasonable to believe that he may sharpen one of these tools. Nate Oats believes he has another level to show as an offensive player. But as of now I don’t quite know what the standout trait or standout skill is. If he declares, the day-one uses to a team would be his defense and his rebounding with a bit of spot-up shooting mixed in. I just worry about him as a ‘pre-draft’ candidate, given the driving has quite a way to go.

When scouting, I often come up with a few hypotheticals for the player I’m scouting, ones I deem to be important to the overall process. Revisiting my earlier point about him possibly being a play finisher, this is the hypothetical I keep coming back to.

• Is any of the shooting profile good enough to really be a play finisher at the next level?

The shooting is solid, the layup percentage is alright, and he may have an in-between game when not playing for Nate Oats. But none are truly elite right now. I’d say the banker for serious improvement comes down to his driving game developing quite significantly, which is why I’m hoping he returns to Alabama. I just don’t know how much hope I’d put on this. I also think it’s fair to say that even if the first steps become more crisp, the handle might limit him, as he does need to pick up his dribble quite often. He is powerful, but the 2-point scoring issues go all the way back to his AAU Days. I’m likely of the opinion that the efficiency isn’t there right now for me to draft him at consensus if he declares this year.

Overall, I’d say Allen is a high-floor player who, if he declares, I’d rank somewhere between 22 and 28. I don’t have a board yet, but I think the defense could be quite impactful, and he does have room to grow. But the thing I keep coming back to is, where do you get with the offense. I can’t be out on him as the metrics are good, and his good games are also impressive. If he returns, he’s someone I’m watching for next season.