Another advantage NFL draft analysts find with the sheer volume of picks is the ability to pick up on tendencies for certain teams and GMs. One or two NFL drafts can amass a large enough sample to begin drawing conclusions. That isn’t the case for the NBA draft, as many teams end with two or fewer selections.

My inspiration for this project comes from a series created by an Indianapolis Colts beat writer by the name of Zach Hicks, who predicts the Colts’ draft choices by observing past trends for combine measurables and stats. I adore this series (and if you happen to be a Colts/NFL Draft fan reading this, you will too) and wanted to emulate it for basketball.

The Oklahoma City Thunder’s General Manager, Sam Presti, joined the franchise in 2007. He’s the longest-tenured GM in the NBA by a huge margin, becoming lionized in drafting/rebuilding circles. We have a notable sample of Presti draft picks, which can lead us to discover some of his tendencies and preferences. 

Since joining the Seattle Supersonics in 2007, Presti drafted and kept 31 players. We’ll include Lu Dort for his significance, bringing our sample to 32. That’s not nearly large enough to draw definitive conclusions but we can begin to notice trends emerging. 

To predict how the Thunder will draft going forward, I collected measurable and statistical data for each OKC draft pick. The data was collected and analyzed from a prospect’s draft season. A career ranking may result in slight changes that could make up an entirely new project. All stats are from the NBA, Barttorvik and Basketball Reference. Some stats aren’t available for certain international/non-NCAA prospects, so we’ll do the best with what we have.

After analyzing the past 15 years of draft data, these are the factors Sam Presti seems to consider most:

Wingspan: 

Presti’s wingspan has become somewhat infamous and there’s truth behind that. In his 17 years with OKC, Presti has drafted just three players with a +2 or lower height-to-wingspan differential, those being Mitch McGary (2014), Josh Giddey and Tre Mann (2021).

The Thunder weaponize their basketball condors to wreck shop on both ends of the ball. Even after some philosophy shifts over the past four or five seasons, it’s clear how much he values length in prospects, especially guards and wings. Jalen Williams (+10), Keyontae Johnson (+8), Cason Wallace (+6) and Chet Holmgren (+6) all fit the wingspan trope.

Age:

Youth is a critical indicator of star upside and general NBA success and development in the draft and Presti knows this. Prospects who break out early are more likely to be stars and great players alike. Presti has never drafted a 22+ year-old in the top 20 picks. His oldest lottery pick is Jalen Williams (21.2) and his average lottery pick is under 20.

He’s drafted only six 22+ year-olds at all, those being McGary (pick 21, 2014), Josh Huestis (29, 2014), Aaron Wiggins (54, 2021), Devon Hall (53, 2018), Keyontae Johnson (50, 2023) and Sasha Kaun (56, 2008).

As the Thunder push for titles, Presti’s philosophy could begin to shift, leaning towards older more NBA-ready prospects as evidenced by the JDub and Johnson picks. Still, we know Presti values youth, especially early and likely will continue to draft on the younger side of teams.

Productivity:

This isn’t referring to points per game specifically, but rather productivity in other manners. Most Presti picks perform well in advanced, all-in-one metrics. Of the 21 picks with available barttorvik BPM data, all but two (Hamidou Diallo, Lu Dort) posted above a +4.0 BPM.

Aside from more general metrics, Presti prospects tend to dominate statistically in at least one area, whether that be passing, shooting, rebounding or foul drawing. There will always be exceptions, but drafting good basketball players tends to pay off in the long run.

Feel: 

Whatever nebulous term we choose to define some kind of processing, court mapping and instinctual indicators will be a challenge to quantify. Presti prospects do well in assist-to-turnover and assist rate metrics, especially the guards and wings.

This is a point of philosophy shift, as the post-2019 “Rebuild Era” shifted the premium away from raw athletic tools (Diallo, Ferguson, etc) and towards smart basketball players. The average post-2019 Presti pick has an assist-to-turnover ratio of 1.4 (but a low assist rate interestingly, dragged down by bigs and Dieng).

OKC’s basketball vision relies on smart players who make quick decisions and process the floor in real-time. It’s the backbone of the roll replace offense and their aggressive defense and Presti will align with that philosophy.

Physicality: 

Physicality best manifests in stats like free-throw rate and rebounding rate which Presti prospects tend to have. Free-throw rate projects driving, finishing and creation as well as any other indicator; Thunder picks in the sample average a strong 31 free-throw rate and guards especially draw fouls prolifically.

Thunder prospects also tend to display a baseline of rebounding ability on the defensive end, indicating verticality, size and motor. Only Terrance Ferguson (4.5%), Alex Abrines (9.1%) and Russell Westbrook (8.4%) rebounded below 10% of their team’s shots during their minutes.

Shooting: 

The Rebuild era marks another shift for Presti in a slightly greater prioritization of shooting as well as feel. Since 2020, Oklahoma City’s draft picks averaged 34% on threes compared to 25.5% before 2020. They’ll still draft inefficient shooters like Giddey (29.3%), Dieng (27.1%), and Jaylin Williams (23.9%). 

For projecting shooting growth, volume is a far more reliable indicator and Presti values this now more than ever. Even if they didn’t shoot well, all recent Presti picks shot the ball, especially for bigs/taller players. In the pre-rebuild era, Presti drafted seven players with a three-point attempt rate below 10 compared to zero post-2020.

Historically, Presti’s draft picks don’t indicate a strong valuation of scoring efficiency or usage. OKC drafts all over the place in terms of true shooting and usage, anywhere from Ferguson (16.2% usage, 47% true shooting) to James Harden (32.6% usage, 60.7% true shooting.

Many scouts regard steal and block rates as important indicators of defensive potential. That isn’t a trend in Oklahoma City’s selections, as the steal (2.2%) and block (3.1%) rates hover around average.

Based on those numbers, here’s what an average Presti draft pick’s stats and measurables look like, sorted by position: 

Guards (11): 199.3 lbs, +5.3 WS differential, 20.1 years, 7.4 BPM, 1.4 assist-to-turnover ratio, 35 free throw rate, 38.2 three-point attempt rate, 14.4% defensive rebound rate

Wings (12): 206.1 lbs, +6.1 WS differential, 20.7 years, 5.7 BPM. 1.2 assist-to-turnover ratio, 27.8 free throw rate, 37.2 three-point attempt rate, 15.6% defensive rebound rate

Bigs (9): 238,8 lbs, +3.9 WS differential, 20.7 years, 7.6 BPM, 0.8 assist-to-turnover ratio, 48.2 free throw rate, 8.0 three-point attempt rate, 23% defensive rebound rate

It’s worth averaging out Presti’s picks post-2019 as well given the notable philosophy toward higher-feel players:

“Rebuild Era” (12): 202.7 lbs, +4.8 WS differential, 20.2 years, 7.2 BPM, 1.4 assist-to-turnover ratio, 29 free throw rate, 37.5 three-point attempt rate, 20.6% defensive rebound rate

Some outliers skew these averages and it’s still not a large enough sample size to feel fully confident, but these numbers provide an interesting baseline and range for Presti’s most valued prospect traits.

Based on Presti’s past drafting tendencies, who are the Thunder most likely to draft in 2024? Currently, OKC sits at 12. Presti loves trading up and down the board, so we will discuss more prospects than those likeliest to be available at 12 and some second-rounders at the end. After analyzing the data with a weight on the factors Presti values most — wingspan, age and BPM especially — I’ve come up with my best guesses at who the Thunder will value.

This is NOT my prediction for who the Thunder will draft. Presti’s philosophies have evolved and his priorities may shift, especially regarding drafting older prospects, as OKC turns to championship contention mode. I’ll provide context for each prospect as some of them will be more or less likely to be OKC picks than the data suggests.

*THE PERFECT PRESTI PROSPECTS*

Stephon Castle, Wing/Guard, UConn

Numbers to know: +3.5 WS (6’9’), 5.5 BPM, 19.7 y/o, 1.9 a:to, 37.9 FTr, 12% DRB, 25.9 3par

On paper, Stephon Castle is the prospect I’d wager Presti covets most. He checks every box: Castle is young, impactful on a great team, and long with great statistical indicators. Presti wings tend to shoot with more volume, but that’s the only knock you can find based on historical trends.

OKC would likely have to trade up to draft Castle, who some have projected as high as two to the Wizards. Castle’s desire to play point guard might also scare the Thunder off given their abundance of ball-handling talent in the backcourt and on the wing, so he might not grade as highly for OKC as his statistical profile suggests. Still, I wouldn’t be shocked to see a trade-up for Castle if he slips a bit down the board.

Donovan Clingan, Center, UConn

Numbers to know: +5 WS (7’6.5), 14.1 BPM, 20.3 y/o, 1.9 a:to, 47.8 FTr, 23.4% DRB, 2.7 3par

Castle’s college teammate thrives in almost all of the same areas as him; Clingan’s production at a young age, huge wingspan and excellent statistical indicators as a passer and athletically all speak to Presti’s preferences. He hasn’t drafted a non-shooting big since Dakari Johnson in 2015 but I’d imagine he would make an exception for Clingan.

Clingan also feels like a possible trade-up candidate for the Thunder as he’s been projected as high as number one to the Hawks. Like Castle though, pushing the chips in for Clingan to pair with Chet Holmgren long-term wouldn’t shock me. It’s not a move I would love as Holmgren is best as a five and Clingan’s spacing is a concern, but the physicality and rim protection he’d add would be immense.

Kel’el Ware, Center, Indiana

Numbers to know: +5 WS (7’4.5), 8.1 BPM, 20.2 y/o, 1.0 a:to, 41.9 FTr, 26.1% DRB, 12.5 3par 

Before this exercise, Ware wasn’t a prospect I expected to rank highly for Presti’s history. I haven’t seen him linked to the Thunder at all, but it makes perfect sense on deeper inspection. Ware shares all of the same profile strengths as Clingan — wingspan, BPM, youth, feel and interior goodness. Unlike Clingan, Ware spaced the floor in college to varying degrees throughout his career.

Ware likely will be on the board at 12 and the Thunder sticking and picking him makes sense based on Presti’s history and the current roster. His shooting fits more cleanly with OKC’s five-out offense than Clingan’s while maintaining similar defensive and interior scoring upside. I love this fit and think it’s one of the most likely options at 12 that most aren’t discussing.

Ja’Kobe Walter, Guard/Wing, Baylor

Numbers to know: +6 WS (6’10), 4.4 BPM, 19.8 y/o, 1.1 a:to, 48.9 FTr, 12.3% DRB, 57.2 3par

If I had to submit an official guess based on Presti’s past selections for the Thunder’s pick at 12, history says it should be Walter. Like those in this tier, he’s extremely long and young with statistical indicators aligning with the data, though his BPM would be on the lower end for Presti picks. 

Lottery is too high for Walter by my evaluation, as his lack of offensive juice outside of off-ball shooting and defensive problems make for a limited ceiling. I’m not sure the Thunder would look to add another questionable playmaker off of the bounce after the Mavericks exposed some of their perimeter creation issues, though. Presti could believe in his three-and-D skillset on the wing and pick him at 12 even if he’s the least likely of the top four fits to end up on OKC to me.

*STRONG PRESTI FITS*

Ron Holland, Wing, Ignite

Numbers to know: +4 WS (6’10.75), 19 y/o, 0.9 a:to, 41.7 FTr, 16.2% DRB, 21.3 3par

We won’t have BPM numbers for non-NCAA prospects which adds some uncertainty for them. Holland looks like a classic Presti wing given his youth, elite athletic and physical tools statistical indicators. His shooting and assist/turnover numbers lag a bit behind most Thunder wing selections.

For myself and many others, Holland is a top-two prospect in the class and should be the pick if he falls on the principle of valuing the best talent available. There’s a strong chance he isn’t on the board at 12 but if he is, I don’t think Presti would let his slide continue.

Tyler Smith, Wing, Ignite

Numbers to know: +4 WS (7’1), 19.6 y/o, 1.1 a:to, 30.5 FTr, 15% DRB, 36.3 3par

Draft analysts don’t associate Tyler Smith with the Thunder often, but his profile cleanly fits their type. Smith is young with a long wingspan, excellent shooting numbers and solid rebounding, passing and free-throw drawing stats. Selecting Smith might be likely in a trade-down scenario, but snagging him at 12 and valuing his size and spacing potential is a possible outcome for the Thunder.

Devin Carter, Guard, Providence

Numbers to know: +6.5 WS (6’8.75), 11.4 BPM, 22.3 y/o, 1.3 a:to 37.6 FTr, 23.7% DRB, 48.2 3par

Carter’s case to be the pick at 12 fascinates me. He’d be the oldest player Presti has ever picked in the lottery but he fits every other indicator best of all prospects in the entire draft: gargantuan wingspan, insane BPM, foul drawing, passing, shooting, you name it. 

If the rumors about Chicago’s promise are true, Carter might not be an option. One could argue his skillset overlaps some with Cason Wallace, who the Thunder spent a lottery pick on last year. But if he falls to 12, my gut feeling is that Presti would draft Carter, valuing his current skillset for a Thunder team hoping to contend for titles now.

DaRon Holmes II, Center/Forward, Dayton

Numbers to know: +4 WS (7’1), 21.9 y/o, 11.5 BPM, 1.2 a:to, 72.4 FTr, 23.7% DRB, 20.8 3par

Aside from his age — Holmes would also be the oldest Presti lottery pick by almost a year — DaRon Holmes is a Thunder big. He’s functionally long and dominated college basketball as a consensus All-American, showcasing the playmaking, handling and spacing requisite of modern bigs.

Holmes profiles closest to a PJ Washington/Aaron Gordon acolyte in this draft and he seamlessly fits OKC’s roster and philosophy on both ends. A big who thrives as a perimeter handler with some interior versatility would have changed the calculus for the Thunder in the postseason. I would not be stunned if the Thunder reached for Holmes at 12. The fit is that good, even if his age would be a trend-breaker.

*POSSIBLE PRESTI GUYS*

Tidjane Salaun, Wing/Forward, Cholet

Numbers to know: +5 WS (7’2), 18.9 y/o, 0.7 a:to, 27 FTr, 15.5% DRB, 53.1 3par

If Presti dips back into the raw French wing well, Salaun will probably be the pick. He’s one of the youngest players in the whole draft with an elite wingspan and well-rounded indicators. European prospects often record lower assist numbers due to stricter assist counting than American hoops, accounting for the lower assist-to-turnover ratio.

Salaun likely wouldn’t contribute much on day one, His two-way upside is immense and he’d provide a strong contingency plan on the wings for the coming seasons if Salaun ends up as the pick. 

Yves Missi, Center, Baylor

Numbers to know: +3 WS (7’2), 20.1 y/o, 5.8 BPM, 0.3 a:to, 60.4 FTr, 16.3% DRB, 0 3par

Missi performs well in many of the main Presti philosophy points: solid wingspan, youth and BPM production. His poor shooting and playmaking numbers don’t fit with Presti’s recent center picks as he seems to prioritize more “modern” perimeter-oriented bigs. As we mentioned with Clingan, Missi makes more sense at 12 if Presti wants to move towards more “traditional bigs” to add size and rebounding in the frontcourt.

Zach Edey, Center, Purdue

Numbers to know: +7 WS (7’10.75), 22.3 y/o, 15.5 BPM. 0.9 a:to. 80.9 FTr, 25.5% DRB, 0.1 3par

We can draw parallels between Edey and Missi’s alignment with Presti’s history. Edey is much older than Missi with more production and similar playmaking and floor spacing hangups. The National Player of the Year’s enormous wingspan, BPM and foul-drawing numbers will all entice Presti. His size, rebounding and interior presence are tailor-made to help OKC, though I’m skeptical he’s the pick due to his age and lack of a shooting presence.

Kyle Filipowski, Forward/Center, Duke

Numbers to know: – 0.25 WS (6’10.5), 20.6 y/o, 10.1 BPM, 1.3 a:to, 38.4 FTr, 22.6% DRB, 25.7% 3par

Sam Presti drafting a prospect with a negative wingspan would feel sacrilegious. But apart from length, Kyle Filipowski is a Presti big. He’s young, extremely productive with the requisite physicality, handling and spacing potential to play on the outside. I’m skeptical Presti goes for another short-armed prospect, though Filipowski’s fit as a perimeter threat and a physical rebounder and defender are ideal if he does make an exception.

Johnny Furphy, Wing, Kansas

Numbers to know: +0.5 WS (6’8), 19.6 y/o, 5.4 BPM, 1.2 a:to, 40.3 FTr, 16.3% DRB, 60.7 3par

Like Filipowski, Furphy slots in with recent Presti selections in every way but wingspan. If the Thunder want to add a young shooting wing with size, Furphy could be one of the better options. He’s most likely in a trade down and even then I wouldn’t bank on the Thunder to value Furphy as much as other longer, even more productive wings later in the draft where age hasn’t been as paramount for Presti.

Jared McCain, Guard, Duke

Numbers to know: +1.5 WS (6’3.5), 20.4 y/o, 7.6 BPM, 1.4 a:to, 23 FTr, 15.3% DRB, 55.4 3par

Presti drafted a shorter-armed guard in 2021 in Tre Mann who isn’t on the team three years later. McCain has youth (despite being an old freshman), BPM, assist and shooting numbers as strengths and he’d fit well as an off-ball shooting, secondary pick-and-roll guard next to Shai and Jalen Williams. But in a crowded OKC backcourt, McCain’s lack of length and physicality likely would lead the Thunder elsewhere. 

Dalton Knecht, Guard, Tennessee

Numbers to know: +4 WS (6’9), 9.9 BPM. 23.2 y/o, 1,1 a:to, 35.4 FTr, 14.3% DRB, 40.6 3par

Knecht would be the third 23-year-old Presti draft pick in his Thunder tenure and the first inside the top 50 picks. That makes Knecht extremely unlikely at 12, though his wingspan meets the threshold and his statistical production for the important markers impress. I don’t expect OKC to strongly consider Knecht even if his plug-and-play offensive skillset would add juice on that end.

*UNLIKELY PRESTI FITS*

Matas Buzelis, Forward/Wing, Ignite

Numbers to know: +1 WS (6’10), 19.7 y/o, 0.9 a:to, 28.3 FTr, 17.1% DRB, 28.8 3par

Shorter arms, poor assist and turnover numbers and limited physicality/ strength mean Buzelis doesn’t match the Thunder’s usual type. Though Presti will draft rawer tall wings like Ousmane Dieng and Aleksej Pokusevski, they often have outstanding statistical indicators elsewhere. Other wing options like Salaun and Holland will probably entice Presti more than Buzelis.

Tristan Da Silva, Forward/Wing, Colorado

Numbers to know: +2 WS (6’10.25), 6.2 BPM, 23.1 y/o, 1,3 a:to, 25.8 FTr, 13.7% DRB, 40.5 3par

Drafting Da Silva would depart from Presti’s typical philosophy; he’s already 23 with a mediocre wingspan and extremely poor rebounding and foul-drawing numbers for his size. Da Silva’s height, shooting and playmaking skill theoretically slot in perfectly to OKC’s offensive system and Presti may value his plug-and-play value. If he was the pick at 12 or even in a trade down, Da Silva would become a massive historical outlier.

Isaiah Collier, Point Guard, USC

Numbers to know: +2 WS (6’4.75”), 3.5 BPM, 19.7 y/o, 1.3 a:to, 49.7 FTr, 8.7% DRB, 25.5 3par

Collier has arms on the shorter side, wasn’t incredibly productive by BPM and hits below thresholds on rebounding and three-point numbers for Presti guards. As much as I adore Collier, OKC has plenty of handling guards on the roster and others in this draft fit Presti’s tendencies. 

*THE ONE BIG ASTERISK*

Cody Williams, Wing/Forward, Colorado

Numbers to know: +6.5 WS (7’1), 2.9 BPM, 19.6 y/o, 0.8 a:to, 39.7 FTr, 9.2% DRB, 21.1 3par

Looking solely at historical indicators, Cody Williams performs poorly compared to most Presti selections, especially in the lottery. His low BPM especially pops out and only his free-throw rate numbers are above the Thunder’s average. 

OKC will likely throw most of this out for obvious reasons, as keeping Jalen Williams around for as long as possible would be reason enough to draft Cody. Williams’ mid-season injury materially impacted his play, as he looked less explosive and confident after returning in January. 

If not for the injury, Williams likely fares much better in the Presti formula, especially given his huge wingspan and age. Cody is probably the most likely OKC pick at 12 and it’s as good a spot as any for him to develop physically and as a shooter.

If the Thunder trade down in the draft, here are some other prospects that fit Sam Presti’s historical type:

Dillon Jones, Guard/Wing, Weber St

Numbers to know: +6.5 WS (6’11), 7.3 BPM, 22.7 y/o, 1.7 a:to, 45.4 FTr, 31% DRB, 23.7 3par

Jonathan Mogbo, Forward/Wing/Center, San Francisco

Numbers to know: +8 WS (7’2), 10.5 BPM. 22.7 y/o, 2.0 a:to, 32.2 FTr, 29.6% DRB, 0.1 3par

Isaac Jones, Forward/Center, Washington St

Numbers to know: +7 WS (7’3), 6.7 BPM, 23.9 y/o, 0.8 a:to, 55.8 FTr, 19% DRB, 0.8 3par

Keshad Johnson, Wing, Arizona

Numbers to know: +7 WS (6’10.25), 7.1 BPM. 23 y/o, 1.2 a:to, 37.5 FTr, 14.8% DRB, 32.6% 3par

Bronny James, Guard, USC

Numbers to know: +6 WS (6’7.25), -0.3 BPM, 19.7 y/o, 2.0 a:to, 30.4 FTr, 15.1% DRB, 53.6 3par

Trey Alexander, Guard, Creighton

Numbers to know: +7 (6’10.5), 4.7 BPM, 21.2 y/o, 1.9 a:to, 20.8 FTr, 14.6% DRB, 35.2% 3par

The post OKC Thunder Draft Retrospective appeared first on Swish Theory.

When I evaluate a prospect’s offense, I ask myself these two questions first:

1. Will this prospect ever be a primary initiator/decision-maker?
2. If the answer to question one is no, how does he impact winning next to other primaries?

Aside from nabbing stars, locating players who contribute to winning, especially in the postseason, is what teams should seek in the draft. The vast majority of elite teams roster one (or two) players who command high usage, either as the offensive orchestrator or deadly scorer. The best players in the NBA are both.

From there, we can understand the value of drafting players with additive skills – shooting, passing and defending being the three most notable. Scouts traditionally discuss scalability, or the ability to move up and down the offensive hierarchy as needed, through the lens of three-and-D wings. 

Now more than ever, centers with expansive offensive skill sets are ubiquitous among great offenses. Going beyond the Joel Embiids and Nikola Jokics of the world, the decision-making ‘hub’ big sill feels like an undervalued archetype. The value of ones like Wendell Carter Jr, Chet Holmgren, Draymond Green and Jusuf Nurkic are clear.

Centers also must add value playing next to other ball-dominant stars, no matter the position. So how can bigs, especially non-shooting bigs, add value without the basketball? 

In the two years since I first discussed modern, scalable NBA bigs, the archetype is as crucial as ever. Big men orchestrate more and more NBA offense, burning defenses with dribble handoffs, short rolls, above-the-break threes and inside-out passing. We can evaluate and project frontcourt prospects through this lens. Centers aren’t exempt from joining the off-ball revolution. 

As I wrote before: 

“Conversations about scalability must extend beyond sharp, spacing wings. They must include these traditional-sized big men who may not be spot-up artists, but who maximize offensive harmony with flowing offense from the mid and high post.”

Maintaining a scoring threat is paramount to commanding defensive attention even for connective bigs, even more so than I realized when I wrote the first part in 2022. Many of the bigs in this archetype who do not become long-term NBA rotation staples (Trevion Williams, Jaylin Williams, etc) can’t punish defenses as a shooter or a play finisher.

Still, I see five main areas modern off-ball bigs should excel:

Advantage extender

I previously titled this category ‘short roll,’ though I think advantage extender better captures this skill. Can you punish a defense at a numbers disadvantage? Bigs who amplify their teammates’ pull-up shooting gravity and playmaking while thriving in the scramble drill match perfectly with stars. Rather than commanding possessions, they increase the odds of their advantage creation leading to points.

A key for this skill: can you command defensive attention as a scoring threat? If a playoff defense doesn’t respect a player’s scoring, they can neutralize their playmaking skill.

DHO Keep/Flow

Potent offenses seek to attain north-south movement, hoping to end as many possessions possible at the bucket, East-west flow opens up creases to run through, commandeered by bigs screening, handing off and creating with their handles. Can you compromise a fooled defense? Can coaches rely on you to initiate offense?

Close quarters finishing

Converting advantages created by stars is the easiest, most classic path to scaling down. In the case of centers, that often means finishing high-value shots at the cup and drawing fouls. Can you finish from a variety of angles with either hand? Do you have the catch radius to snare bad passes?

Force that closeout!

Shooting is a cherry on top for off-ball bigs, assuming they are true center-sized (shooting needed and height are inversely related). Bigs can compensate with their height and size, but threatening a defense from the outside and forcing them to pay attention is a plus.

Can you hit shots from different spots and different platforms? Can you force and attack a bad closeout? What about a good one?

Transition

Pushing the break after a block or rebound eliminates the need to pass to the PG, speeding up transition opportunities. Can you threaten the defense with speed as a transition attacker? Maybe more importantly, can you flow into actions and make decisions to set up teammates? 

With that out of the way, let’s discuss how the bigs of the 2024 draft class fare.

Alex Sarr: Advantage extender, DHO Keep/Flow, Force that closeout!*, Transition

From his single NBL season, Sarr grew as a functional dribbler and playmaker out of the short roll. He’s a far more confident decision-maker on the catch, punishing defenses at a numbers disadvantage with quick kicks and laydowns. Sarr doesn’t need to shoot the lights out to excel on offense, though his low volume especially is troubling.

Freakish coordination and movement skill turn Sarr’s ceiling into an endless staircase. At the moment, Sarr already burns defenders down the court after a defensive stop and wins in isolation against pro bigs. Sarr is building modern NBA offense habits, dribbling into dribble handoffs and screens as a reverse initiator.

Dribbling centers unlock offensive options and Sarr’s mobility plus the counters and creativity he already has are auspicious signs. He might not finish with strong efficiency due to his limited vertical pop, but his potential to initiate modern NBA-style actions only adds to his best-in-class upside. 

Donovan Clingan: Close-quarters finishing

Donovan Clingan’s main ways to pressure defense without the ball include screening and rolling. But without the ball, Clingan fades into the background on offense. He’s unfortunately not a great post scorer as his stiffness limits his angle carving ability. There’s no semblance of a jumper there either.

Thankfully for Clingan, his defense is phenomenal. That’s a topic for another day. We’ve seen plenty of defensive anchors succeed with limited offensive games like Gobert, Capela, Kessler etc. Clingan’s play finishing and height should always keep him somewhat afloat offensively.

Yves Missi: DHO Keep/Flow, Close-quarters finishing, Transition*

Though Yves Missi likely is closer to his 6’10 high school measurement, he plays well above his height with vertical pop and length. Catch radius is critical for lob targets and rim runners, which will be Missi’s main path to offensive value. 

Missi skies above the rim, catching passes well outside his frame for lobs and soft finishes. He’s efficient around the rim — Missi is one of 21 college basketball players this year with 50 or more dunks shooting over 70% at the rim and the only freshman to do it.

Processing speed will be a major swing skill for Missi, especially given his advanced ball-handling flashes, whipping out counters to beat bigs to the bucket and set into post position. If the feel progresses, the sky is the limit for Missi.

Daron Holmes: DHO Keep/Flow, Close-quarters finishing, Force that closeout!, Transition

The case of Daron Holmes’ draft stock is mysterious. According to the Rookie Scale consensus board, Holmes sits at 31 in the eyes of the mainstream with his spot on many prominent mocks even lower. I can’t figure out why for the life of me, especially given his snug fit in the modern game.

Offenses operate through big men more than ever, planting them as hubs for off-ball motion and simple advantage creation. And Holmes, a spacing big with a unique handle, should pique the interest of offensive coordinators. Unlike most lean perimeter-oriented bigs, Holmes possesses traditional big skills — screening, sealing, pick-and-roll defense, finishing — developing those before his metamorphosis.

Aside from spacing the floor and finishing at the rim, Holmes’ varied handle should allow him to function as a genuine hub. How many bigs in college run invert pick and roll as the ball-handler and move downhill to finish, shoot or pass?

Holmes isn’t the smoothest processor which could limit his ceiling as a playmaker. Regardless of any high-end feel limitations, the dribbling, strength and shooting could beget Naz Reid-esque offensive impact.

Kyle Filipowski: Advantage extender, DHO Keep/Flow, Close-quarters finishing, Force that closeout!*, Transition

In theory, Filipowski could easily hit all five tools of scalability. It will depend on the degree of his shooting and finishing — can Filipowski reliably force closeouts and finish through traffic? His volume and efficiency improved from deep this past season though the percentages across his career aren’t stellar. Filpowski is a good, not great finisher among centers (58.6% HC at the rim) and his limited vertical pop and stiffness could trouble him against NBA length.

If he draws defenses as a scoring threat, his passing and ball-handling are among the best in the class. He’s a passing virtuoso, firing assists from the post, on the short roll, in transition and as a primary ballhandler. Few players with Flip’s physicality and strength handle and pass how he can. His potential offensive versatility is massive.

Kel’el Ware: Close-quarters finishing, Force that closeout!

Shooting is the key to unlocking Ware’s scalability. Like a few other bigs on this list, he’s best with the ball in his hands, facing up and swiveling into shots from the post. He’s a springy vertical athlete, rendering him a seamless pairing with great passer (something he hasn’t had in college).

Ware’s three-point volume dipped, though he has a history of deep-range shooting going back to his days at Oregon and in high school. Threatening defenses as a spacer will be all the off-ball value he needs if Ware hits a high defensive outcome.

Zach Edey: Close-quarters finishing

I’m concerned about Zach Edey’s ability to scale down and impact winning without the ball in his hands. Edey’s touch is undeniable and paired with his gargantuan status, he should be a good finisher at the next level. But when passes don’t feed Edey post touches, how does he contribute in a meaningful way?

Historically, high-usage college players who aren’t great passers tend to fail. Take this Barttorvik query of college players with +30% usage and -15% assist rate:

It’s a mixed group, with one mega-star and a few busts. Aside from the Boogie outlier, the ones who stuck in the league shot the ball and spaced the floor (McDermott, Warren). How will Zach Edey share the floor with ball-dominant players? If he improves his processing speed, Edey could connect teammates and extend plays rather than finish them. If not, he feels like a microwave scorer sixth man at his ceiling.

Oso Ighodaro: Advantage extender, DHO Keep/Flow

Does unathletic Brandon Clarke pique your interest? That’s the question we’re pondering about Oso Ighodaro, In theory, his connective skills are abundant — Oso’s floater game is advanced (54.5% on runners) and he’s a capable passer to cutters from a handoff. There’s a recipe for a useful release valve, especially with a pull-up shooting threat.

Ighodaro struggles to elevate through contact and his finishing in the restricted area. He doesn’t space the floor. If Ighodaro can’t threaten defenses as a scorer, he likely won’t stick. But if the floater hints at shooting development, Ighodaro could find a role as a valuable rotation player, lubricating his team’s offensive flow.

Jonathan Mogbo: DHO Keep/Flow, Close-quarters finishing, Transition

Jonathan Mogbo is a dunk machine. Only two players in the country dunked more than Mogbo, whose NBA intrigue comes largely from his bounce and explosion. With a capable handle, Mogbo flashed pro vision and some high-post chops. Gen-Z Kenneth Faried juices up offenses with great passers.

Watching Mogbo in person further illuminated his stature. Despite being fairly short at 6’7, Mogbo is a brick wall with springs in his shoes. Mogbo snags balls out of the air like a wide receiver. He operated primarily from the post, so working to extend advantages will help him find a home in an NBA rotation. There’s some wacko creator upside if Mogbo truly harnesses his handle to maximize his athletic gifts, expanding his possible utility to on and off the ball.

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