Impressive start for Kam Jones

Kam Jones is someone I’ve gone back and forth on in the past, but he’s been one of my biggest risers among returning players so far. He’s taken on a bigger load this season and in turn has been as good as any player in the country. What’s been really impressive about Kam this year is that he’s clearly not in a role best fit for who he is as a player, but he’s still been incredible in spite of that. 

Kam’s ideal usage is similar to how he played next to Tyler Kolek in previous years, as someone who can create some on the ball but also thrives as an off-ball weapon who is constantly moving and putting pressure on defenses with the threat of his shooting. This year Marquette has surrounded Kam with significantly less playmaking than in years past, and in turn he’s been really good in a lead creator role where he’s responsible for creating a ton of offense with the ball in his hands. This has caused his 3pt rate to plummet, going from taking 13.9 3 point attempers per 100 possessions the past 2 seasons down to just 8.4 3PA/100 this season.

Despite not getting to showcase one of his best skills as much this year, Kam has been better than ever. He’s averaging more than double the assists per game without increasing his turnover rate at all, giving him an outstanding AST/TO ratio of 4.4/1 so far this season. I still wouldn’t label him as a super advanced passer, but he’s quick with a good handle and doesn’t make many mistakes or bad decisions. Since prospects generally can’t control what team they go to or how they are used early on at the NBA level, this type of role malleability that Kam has shown is a really positive sign for his translation to the NBA level.

If you look over the course of his career Kam has proven that he can easily scale his usage on offense up or down depending on what his team needs. He’s extremely effective playing with limited dribbles while keeping the ball moving, but he’s also very comfortable stringing together dribble moves to create against a set defense. That combination of skills is really rare and valuable to find. Add in the fact that he has the strength and frame to compete on defense a little more than most combo guard prospects, and the package that Kam Jones brings to the table is really enticing – even for someone who will be 23 years old on draft night. He’s comfortably a first-round caliber prospect to me right now and I think you can make a strong argument for Kam to be a lottery pick in the 2025 class.  

Understanding Ace Bailey

So far this season there have been a lot of mixed opinions and commentary on Ace Bailey. He’s shown tremendous flashes as a tough shotmaker, but there have been a lot of people pointing out that he’s so reliant on these tough shots because he isn’t able to generate himself anything easier off the dribble due to a basic handle and lack of physicality. And sure, it’s definitely true that he’s struggled to create separation, rarely gets 2 feet in the paint off the dribble right now, and doesn’t do much as a playmaker. But I think it’s important to value all of the stuff that Ace does well rather than just focus purely on the areas that he isn’t currently good at, and consider how he would look in a different role.

He still has a ways to go in his development but Ace looks to me like someone we can project as a 6’9 athletic wing that is versatile defensively, contributes on the glass, can get out and run the floor, and has rare shot making ability for his size. Even if he’s never effective taking more than 2-3 dribbles at once, that’s still an incredibly valuable and useful player for any NBA team. So while I agree with most of the concerns most people have about Ace’s handle and viability as a creator, I think you can still justify ranking him near the top of the draft regardless of the on-ball limitations. One thing I’m looking to see from him the rest of the way is if he can up his 3pt volume, as his current rate of roughly 7 3PA/100 is solid but below what I’d like to see from a shooting prospect of Ace Bailey’s caliber. 

The Two Sides of Egor Demin

Egor Demin has been one of the more interesting players to monitor so far this season, as he’s looked extremely different depending on the competition he’s facing. Against low/mid-major teams such as UC Riverside and Central Arkansas, Demin has looked every bit like a top 5 pick. He’s gotten downhill off the dribble, shot it at a high level, showed some athletic juice, and looks like an incredible passer for a 6’8-6’9 guard. 

However, against high-major teams, it’s almost like watching a different player. Demin has struggled immensely to score against length and hasn’t been comfortable or confident enough to get to his spots in the same manner. There’s been a lot of instances in games against teams like Ole Miss and Providence where Demin is picking up his dribble and passing before ever creating an advantage, which has stalled the offense a bit. When he has tried to get into his bag off the dribble his handle has looked slow and sloppy. Even his passing ability has looked worse in these games, as he’s had a lot of turnovers trying to thread passing windows that just aren’t there against teams with higher levels of length and athleticism. Missing more shots against better defenses is natural and isn’t super concerning by itself over a small sample, but the way in which his creation impact has fallen off a cliff in these matchups is pretty worrisome. 

Ultimately Demin is still someone that I’m relatively high on due to the combination of size and passing as an 18-year-old and I do believe in his jumper, but it’s clear that we need to temper expectations of him as a creator until he starts to show he can produce against higher level competition. 

Other BYU Prospects

Outside of Demin, BYU has another pair of interesting potential prospects that I think are worth mentioning in Kanon Catchings and Richie Saunders. They are near polar opposites as players as Catchings is still very raw, but shows a lot of skills valuable to being an NBA forward. He’s about 6’9 with good length and covers ground at a high level on the defensive end, giving him a lot of potential versatility on that side as he fills out his frame and gets more disciplined. Catchings has also come out of the gates as a very high volume 3pt shooter (13.9 3PA/100), and while there has been mixed results the comfortability that he already has getting up jumpers as a 19-year-old forward is a very good sign. I talk about 3pt volume a lot, but it’s something I really value and in a lot of cases is better for projecting long-term shooting talent than just looking at 3pt%. Right now I think there are too many holes in Catchings’ game to be a 2025 prospect that I’m really interested in drafting, but he fits a valuable archetype as a projectable 3 + D forward and is someone to keep an eye on long term. 

Richie Saunders doesn’t share the high-end physical tools that Catchings has, but he’s just a very good basketball player who knows how to impact winning. Saunders’ game is built around really high level feel, motor, and processing speeds on both ends of the court which allows him to be a relatively mistake-free player who is constantly moving and making things happen. He’s really effective playing off the catch on offense and his combination of feel and quick hands leads to a lot of deflections on the defensive end.

Saunders is someone who both impresses a lot when I watch him and also has a really solid statistical profile. He’s averaging less than 1 turnover per game, is shooting around 40% from 3, finishes at the rim at a high clip, and has nice STL + BLK rates. The biggest swing skill for Saunders that I’ll be looking at the rest of the year is the shooting. He’s had a nice start from 3pt but prior to this year he’s been closer to an average shooter. With some of his athletic limitations he is likely going to need to be a definitively above-average shooter to be an NBA player, but if the shooting improvements are real I can see Saunders being a quality 2nd round target.

The Versatility of Labaron Philon

Coming into the year my main impression of Labaron Philon was that he was a really crafty offensive minded guard that can create offense with the ball in his hands. And while that’s certainly remained true, I’ve been impressed with how well-rounded his game is for a teenage guard prospect and his ability to contribute on both ends. He’s not an elite level defender but he’s shown the ability to stay in front of the ball and he has the length to defend both guard spots. He’s had some struggles fighting through physical screens, but otherwise he’s done a really good job of staying attached on the ball when defending in space and has already been tasked with guarding some really high-level college guards.

Offensively, Alabama has let Philon have chances with the ball in his hands but he’s also had to fit in as a role player playing next to one of the most established guards in the country in Mark Sears. Philon’s ability to fit in well with or without the ball in his hands has stood out, as he already has a lot of quality complementary skills while still being someone who can create when you put the ball in his hands. He makes quick decisions off the catch and is good at extending advantages against a compromised defense. Alabama has even used Philon as a guard-to-guard screener in actions with Sears at times, which might not apply to his NBA role but speaks to the versatility and willingness to play a role that he’s shown this year.

Labaron needs to add some strength and he hasn’t looked comfortable or been effective from beyond the arc this season, but he has good enough shooting priors and natural touch to where it’s easy to believe in the shot improving. Outside of that he already has a good foundation of skills in place. His ability to play on or off the ball while competing defensively gives him the makings of a really solid all-around guard who can fit into different roles effectively, while his ball handling and ability to break down defenses off the dribble still give him the creation upside you’re looking for in a lottery caliber guard prospect. I view Philon as a solid 1st round prospect with a chance to climb into the lottery if he shoots it better from 3 the rest of the year. 

The Adou Thiero Breakout

One of four Kentucky transfers to follow John Calipari over to Arkansas, Adou Thiero has taken a huge leap offensively this season and has been his team’s leading scorer so far. He can still be rigid with the ball in his hands and isn’t a natural handler, but he’s clearly figuring out how to leverage his athletic gifts to get to the rim and has developed the ability to make tough off-balance jumpers from 10-15 feet out. Thiero is also a pretty solid passer for an energy guy and knows how to keep the ball moving and make basic passing reads.

The glaring issue right now is the 3pt shooting, which has always been something Thiero has struggled with. He doesn’t have the smoothest release and will put up some bad misses, and is sub 30% from 3pt for his college career. He is pretty good at using his size and athleticism to cut towards the rim when teams sag off of him, but the lack of 3pt shooting is still an issue. The hope for him is that the touch he’s shown on some of the shorter mid-range shots he’s been good at this year can be expanded out farther to the perimeter. 

The main selling point for Thiero is that he’s an elite defensive prospect, equipped with a special combination of physical tools and motor. It’s not hyperbole to say that you would be hard-pressed to find a player who consistently brings as much energy on the court as Thiero. The athletic tools let him put the motor to effective use as well, as he has the verticality to make plays on the interior as a rim protector, the foot speed to guard down on the perimeter, and the strength to match up against bigger wings and forwards. 

Ultimately it would be hard to justify taking Thiero with a high draft pick right now with how bleak his 3pt shooting profile looks, but he still has more long-term upside to tap into and is someone I’d be happy to take later in the draft as is because of all the other stuff he does well. He has all the intangibles and tools you want in an athletic end-of-the-bench energy guy early on in his career, while still having a clear path to being a valuable piece if he continues in his offensive development and is ever able to even be passable as a jump shooter.

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The main selling point for Ajinca offensively is versatile and tough shot making for someone with true wing size. His 3pt% has fluctuated across different leagues/events in the last couple of years, but overall Synergy Sports has him at near 38% from 3pt in all games dating back to 2022 (for both France’s youth FIBA teams and Saint-Quentin), and it’s obvious that he’s a big time shot maker when you watch him play. Ajinca has a lefty stroke with a little bit of funkiness in his lower body, but it’s a shot he’s clearly very confident in. Most importantly he’s comfortable getting his jumper off in all types of situations, and has a very high level of shot versatility for a younger wing prospect. He’s showcased the ability to hit nearly every type of shot from the perimeter, from movement shots off-ball to tough pull-up jumpers. 

While Ajinca does take too many tough jumpers right now, the ability to make those shots is a very valuable skill to have if he can fine tune his shot selection. We see countless examples in the NBA of role players losing value in the playoffs because they lose confidence in their jumper or struggle to get their shot vs. length or off movement, and those aren’t things I see Ajinca struggling with. He’s extremely confident in his shot and isn’t afraid to let it fly in any circumstance, and has the size/range/off-platform shooting ability to get his jumper off comfortably from nearly anywhere on the court. It’s much easier to get a wildly confident but talented shot maker to clean up his shot selection than it is to turn a hesitant/limited shooter into a more confident/improved one.

Again, balancing the amount of tough shots he takes is going to be important for him, but from a skill set perspective having the ability to make these difficult shots when needed is exactly what you’re looking for from a wing shooter. 

Of course as valuable as tough shotmaking is, a big part of being a shooter is capitalizing on the clean looks generated for you as well – and Ajinca is a sniper when left open. He’s someone defenses can’t afford to forget about, and has an incredible track record on unguarded jumpers. Across all events and leagues dating back to 2022, Ajinca is shooting a ridiculous 50% (88-176) on open C&S jumpers (via Synergy). Obviously percentages on open shots are generally going to be much higher for any player, but Ajinca’s ability to make defenses pay when left open is as good as any player in the 2024 draft. 

While I do believe in Ajinca being a good enough shotmaker to carry his offensive value, it is important to understand some of the weaknesses he has on that end of the court. He has a shaky handle which limits him as an on-ball player, and he doesn’t often create for teammates. The lack of handle plays a part in the amount of tough shots he takes as well, as he’s not someone that can consistently create separation off the bounce and a lot of his self created shot attempts end up being contested jumpers. Even when he has an advantage to play off of, Ajinca currently isn’t someone you can rely on to sift through layers of traffic or make advanced reads as a connective passer. He also can be a bit erratic as a decision maker and can look out of control at times. These flaws represent the biggest worry many have with Ajinca’s translation to the next level, as the threshold of ball skills for NBA role players has risen a ton in recent years. 

With that being said Ajinca does show some really nice flashes when he keeps things simple, and one of the most underrated aspects of his game is his standstill first step quickness/overall burst. While he doesn’t have the handle to take advantage of these tools much off a live dribble, he’s shown the ability to consistently blow by the first level of defense when he attacks aggressively off the catch or out of triple threat. Once he gets a head of steam going downhill in space, his athletic tools take over from there and it generally leads to something productive. He’ll need to add more nuance to his closeout attacks and drives as he progresses in his development, but in the meantime the ability to slash in a straight line effectively is still valuable. This is overall an area where his athleticism aids him a lot and gives him an easier pathway to success in comparison to a majority of off-ball shooter types on the wing. 

And while Ajinca is pretty limited as a passer some of his best flashes have come off of dribble handoff sets or quick reads off the catch, which bodes well for his NBA role as long as he can increase the consistency.

I wouldn’t bet on Ajinca ever being a dangerous on-ball creator in the NBA unless he makes real strides as a handler, but if he can hone in on perfecting the simple stuff (straight line drives off the catch, making basic passing reads quickly out of DHO sets or when he has an advantage) by utilizing his burst and the threat of his shot, that’s likely enough to make him a useful offensive piece in a rotation role. 

On the defensive side of the ball, there’s a lot to like. Ajinca plays with a ton of competitiveness as an on-ball defender, as you can tell he takes pride in taking on tough matchups and not getting scored on. He has a really good blend of athletic gifts too, standing 6’7-6’8 with a very strong NBA-ready frame that holds up against contact, but he’s not bulked up to the point where it negatively affects his movement – he changes directions incredibly well for a bigger wing and can mirror against smaller ball handlers with ease. 

He can get a little jumpy sometimes and bite on fakes, which is something a lot of young defenders struggle with and he’ll have to work on. But even on the possessions where he does give up half a step initially, Ajinca is very good at turning and chasing to recover and has the strength to reroute drivers once he’s back in position. All of this in conjunction makes it incredibly hard to actually get clean blow bys on him.

And while some high level perimeter defenders can be vulnerable to power based creation, this isn’t the case with Ajinca. His frame absorbs contact really well while staying on balance, and a lot of drivers just bounce off his chest when driving into him. He might not have the bulk to guard some of the truly elite strength based creators (Luka, LeBron, Zion etc.), but he’s already strong enough to bump with a vast majority of NBA perimeter players. Saint-Quinten, the French team Ajinca plays for, regularly has trusted him to guard good players 1-3, and I’d expect that to translate against NBA competition due to his combination of size, motor, and change of direction movement ability. 

Away from the ball, Ajinca is solid but mostly unspectacular. He doesn’t usually make flashy plays but he’s generally trustworthy from a positioning standpoint and understands where to be. As a low man he plays aware and has the size and strength to make effective tags on cutters and rim rollers, but he doesn’t offer much as a rim protector on the weak side. Ajinca does have a tendency to over help a bit at times, creating long closeouts for him to get back to his man, but that’s a fairly easy thing to fix. He also has a high motor and is someone who will make hustle plays for loose balls and get back in transition. 

The main concern with Ajinca on the defensive end is the lack of length. It’s been rumored that he has a negative wingspan, and that shows up in his film. He’s frequently in good position and able to cut off an opponent’s initial move, but he struggles at times to get meaningful contests off against jumpers and can be prone to getting beat by good shot making even when he’s in position. You can also see this show up in his screen navigation, where he’s generally flexible enough to get around screens but sometimes lacks the length to stay attached. These are relatively minor things and not something that negates everything else he does well on the defensive end, but it does cap his ceiling to a degree and will limit just how effective he can be guarding the true star creators and shot makers of the NBA.

Ultimately Ajinca’s combination of shotmaking, defensive capability, and athletic traits make him someone with a relatively straightforward pathway to being a valuable rotation player in the NBA, with the potential to be more if he ever makes meaningful improvements as a ball handler. He also fits into an archetype that’s very valuable to have in the playoffs if he does pan out, due to his ability to get his shot off in a variety of ways at his size while being reliable defensively. 

Like most prospects he is a bit context dependent on where he lands. He’ll have a leg up on other incoming rookies in the fact that he should be ready from a physicality and defensive standpoint very quickly, but it’s a little more unclear offensively. In a situation where he’s on a good team with a set offensive hierarchy I can see him being an early contributor on his rookie contract. On the flip side it might take longer for things to click for him if he lands on a team with an unorganized structure that feeds into some of his questionable shot selection habits without creating easy looks and advantages for him to play off of. 

There’s certainly players in this draft who have a higher ceiling in terms of on-ball creation or top end defensive impact, but Ajinca has a real chance to be a useful player on both ends of the court as an athletic 6’7 wing – which makes him a clear top-20 player and one of the most undervalued prospects in the 2024 NBA draft in my view. 

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