JWH, Author at Swish Theory https://theswishtheory.com/author/jwh/ Basketball Analysis & NBA Draft Guides Fri, 13 Jan 2023 15:11:24 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.9 https://i0.wp.com/theswishtheory.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/Favicon-1.png?fit=32%2C32&ssl=1 JWH, Author at Swish Theory https://theswishtheory.com/author/jwh/ 32 32 214889137 The NBA Entering 2023: Crowded at the Top https://theswishtheory.com/analysis/2023/01/the-nba-entering-2023-crowded-at-the-top/ Fri, 13 Jan 2023 15:11:11 +0000 https://theswishtheory.com/?p=4674 The biggest storyline of the NBA season entering into the near year is its parity. The clarity at the top is unusually muddled: while the Boston Celtics lead the league in Simple Rating System (a measure of performance adjusted to opponent), their 5.6 points above average is not convincing. That would have been good for ... Read more

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]]> The biggest storyline of the NBA season entering into the near year is its parity. The clarity at the top is unusually muddled: while the Boston Celtics lead the league in Simple Rating System (a measure of performance adjusted to opponent), their 5.6 points above average is not convincing. That would have been good for fourth best in 2021-22 as well as 2020-21, demonstrating no one is close to running away from the rest at the top.

Simple Rating System = a team rating that takes into account average point differential and strength of schedule. The rating is denominated in points above/below average, where zero is average.
Parenthesis shows difference to next 9 best teams.

There are quite a few trailing close behind. While also a result of no single runaway team (SRS is calculated relative to all other teams), the five closest trailing the Celtics – Memphis Grizzlies, Cleveland Cavaliers, New Orleans Pelicans, Brooklyn Nets and Philadelphia 76ers – are all within 2 points in SRS of Boston. There was a more significant difference, for instance, between last year’s Celtics who lead the league and the 2021-22 Miami Heat, or the 2020-21 regular season leading Utah Jazz compared to sixth place Denver Nuggets.

The top is as clustered as it’s been, though we have more than half of the season left for one of these teams to make their mark. The closest recent historical precedent was 2010-11, when the Dallas Mavericks overcame having the seventh worst championship odds to take the title led by Dirk Nowitzki.

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