But it’s far from exclusively the case. In contrast, players like Steve Nash, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook, Devin Booker, Jimmy Butler, Jaylen Brown, Pascal Siakam, Kobe Bryant, Draymond Green…I could go on…were all negative basketball players on an NBA court their rookie season (per DARKO).

I watched prospect tape for every name on that list, in addition to some other steep development arc players, to try to ascertain commonalities. But, importantly, the roads are complex, winding and opaque. This is not a comprehensive articulation on what makes players improve.

This is a piece on Cason Wallace. Wallace was indeed a negative basketball player as a rookie NBA player, but not dramatically so. His -0.3 rating on DARKO’s all-in-one indicator is similar to that of other developmental stories Kyle Lowry, Jalen Brunson or Shai Gilgeous-Alexander as rookies. But does he have the same kind of potential to improve?

That’s what we hope to answer. This article will go through five steep development curve characteristics I discovered during my historical improvers tape watch to see how he scores. Through that lens we can better benchmark Wallace’s room to improve, and learn about the nature of development as we go.

Trait #1: Willingness to Initiate Physicality

Cason Wallace’s physicality is inconsistent but overall a positive. On the defensive end, there is no question that Wallace is accepting of physicality. The play above is a prime example, as Wallace can eat up drives into his body with perfect positioning. This is valuable as there is little risk of Wallace bailing out of a play, in fact entrenching himself as he blocks a path.

Physicality is a sign of potential development due to basketball being a physical sport; it’s not much more complicated than that. But more specifically, physicality allows you to execute plays to their fullest extent. What good is effort if, at the critical moment, the player decides to play it safe?

That is the question we face with Cason Wallace’s offense. Wallace, despite all his strength and physicality on the defensive end, is highly prone to settling away from the rim for any semi-closed path. When he has a clear runway, Wallace can look downright imposing attacking the rim:

While Wallace’s off-the-dribble non-rim two rate (pull-up twos and floaters divided by total 2PA) is almost exactly league average, you still get the sense he is leaving money on the table given his strength and driving ability. The flashes make you wonder why his free throw rate was only 0.22 at Kentucky or a miniscule 0.08 his rookie season. The latter was within the twenty lowest free throw rates in the league, a concerning sign.

Wallace’s proclivity for floaters is a vicious cycle: due to stopping his drives short, he loses the opportunity to develop rim finishing craft; because he lacks finishing craft, he has to settle for more floaters.

Wallace gets a resounding half of a check mark for the physicality question, and there are three reasons for optimism. One is Cason’s overall sense of technique, which we’ll get to later in this piece. The second is role, as Wallace was used as a wheel greaser in a lot of ways, but rarely schemed to attack the tin aggressively. That could change as of game one this coming season, with a paint pressure gap left in Josh Giddey‘s absence. Third, which combines with the other two, is how Wallace is very good at taking what’s given to him. Perhaps with more confidence in his body (he reportedly put on 15 pounds this offseason) the offensive physicality will catch up with the defense.

Trait #2: Motor

Watching the greatest development curve players in succession alerted me to one blindingly clear fact: to improve a lot, you have to play hard. This both sounds obvious and like an old school, pre-analytics scout. But it’s a characteristic I may have been underappreciating, no less. Having a low motor does not preclude improvement, nor does having a high motor guarantee it. But to develop from a role player to a star it is basically impossible to not play a little like a maniac.

While it is not surprising that a high motor would show up on tape, the consistency was surprising. Even Devin Booker, not widely considered a high motor player, proved to be a defensive pest as a prospect. Wallace is somewhere in between the high motor players like Booker, Durant and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the All-Time motor players like Russell Westbrook and Kyle Lowry, and likely closer to the latter.

Motor is the cousin of physicality: it not just permits play execution, but creates plays out of thin air. Cason has no business having an effect on the play above, one of the few in the league who could get this steal. Below he shows consistency of focus (and indeed, physicality) to track the ball down and secure it.

Motor contributes to development by giving a player more bites at the apple. The higher the motor the more likely you’ll be found in transition or cutting to the basket, or relocating for a three. For a player low in usage, finding these opportunities is essential. As is having the drive to finish the play.

Even though it ends in a made basket, I love the activity from Wallace in the clip below. Motor here means boxing out, nearly stripping the ball and closing out over ~25 feet in an instant.

One more example of physicality meeting motor: the below box out on Adem Bona.

Motor equals opportunity, and Wallace makes sure he takes all he can get. Likely stuck in a low usage role given the Thunder’s higher profile options, Wallace needs to maximize his motor in the share he does get. I have little doubt he will do so.

Trait #3: Small Space Coordination

The above clip, in combination with a few others, are as compelling signs of Wallace’s star upside as you can find. At this point, it is fairly clear Wallace has defensive upside, even just tying together the points on physicality and motor above. But offense is where you can really strike gold, as the impact of the best offensive players exceeds the impact of the best defenders. The ball travels faster than you can move, and can also fly higher than you can reach (with a Wemby-sized caveat). But you need to put yourself in position to have that impact with the ball, and that’s how we arrive at small space coordination.

Basketball is a high-movement sport: according to NBA.com, the typical player ran ~150 feet per 24 seconds on offense, ~130 feet on defense this past playoffs. In fact, Wallace ran 10% faster than the average player on defense while about average speed on offense. All of this movement volume only emphasizes the importance of movement quality. Cason Wallace has plenty of the former, what about the latter?

On offense, small space coordination not only means being nimble enough to create an initial advantage, but, arguably more important, the ability to dance through traffic. We return to a similar concept as the previous sections – the ability to finish a play. Wallace is, decidedly, a question mark on this front.

There are plays like the above where Wallace is able to create a unique footwork cadence in combination with sleek ballhandling. Or even the below from his AAU days:

But those moments are far from consistent. At Kentucky he had 60 drives, comparing favorably to fellow rim-shy Kentucky Wildcat Reed Sheppard at only 49, but far below Rob Dillingham at 93. Watching the tape, Wallace is often able to get that first step with pretty good burst, but never plays around in the midrange. He is either kicking out safely after an initial probe, conceding for a pull-up/floater or, far less common, throwing his body into the rim protector. More small space coordination would mean more complex playmaking, such as biding time handling a pick and roll, dribbling to the soft zones of the defense to draw help, or foul-grifting by dragging your man along with you.

Wallace may have access to moments of small space coordination, but the lack of applied coordination means less practice hitting those spots. Reps are essential to getting one’s footing, literally. Will the Thunder allow him to initiate these dances? Time will tell.

Trait #4: On-Ball Experimentation

These concepts continue to go hand-in-hand, as small space coordination would dramatically expand one’s on-ball opportunities. Wallace’s shy nature in attacking once again holds him back, but not without flashes here as well.

Wallace’s primary way of experimenting is with his pull-up, but even here there is little by way of complexity. Rather, where the flashes are most promising are with his passing.

Beautiful, effective, and more proof that Wallace has access to small space coordination. Wallace uses the screen and then eats up the middle space between his man and the big. He does this with a left hand in-and-out into an accelerated cross to then reset backwards and sling a one-handed pass to the corner. The play is only possible through Wallace’s unusual movement pattern over the two second period.

The value of on-ball experimentation is clear: trying more things allows you to do more things. We’re returning to the importance of creating one’s own opportunity. Experimentation is not Wallace’s favorite way of going about things. His whole thing is reliability, with an assist-to-turnover ratio of 2.0 with Kentucky and 2.6 with Oklahoma City, which shows up in a heavy preference for making the simple read. Most of the time he’s on the court with the Thunder, Wallace is doing mundane tasks.

But Wallace is still capable of deception here and there. In particular, he is able to manipulate by passing against momentum, drawing in help with his eyes and accelerating into gaps.

This is not the most interesting way to experiment with the ball, but it still may be effective. The important thing is that Wallace has options. If the runners and pull-ups drop at a more efficient clip (as I expect…Wallace’s touch is very good), Wallace will have larger margins in which to operate, and maybe the pull to experiment becomes stronger. But right now, partly by scheme but partly by preference, Wallace conducts himself like he wants to remain a role player. An elevated one at that, as Wallace comes off as a perfectionist, but perhaps not significantly adding to the star equity like our huge development leap stories.

Trait #5: Technique

We saved the best for last. Technique is only this low on the list due to how long it took to click for me that’s what I was seeing. In particular, watching the tape of Steve Nash made me keen to this issue. Could it be? Have I really been underrating the most basic, fundamental aspects of basketball? I think so.

The tape of freshman Steve Nash shows crumbs if not large bites of all the elements listed above, but most of all it shows technique.

If you’re sorting through highlights or exclusively watching Synergy clips, you might miss it. Nash’s triple threat is as sound as any I’ve seen, ripping through menacingly while constantly changing his elbow posture to keep dribble, pass and shoot all as options at once. He sets shoulder-wide screens and can take the contact (physicality). He runs routes with intention. When he makes his move, it is decisive and with little wasted motion.

Here is where Cason shines.

As you can see from the above clips, there are a few areas where Wallace shines from a technique standpoint. First, his spot up technique is very strong. While he prefers to one-two into looks off the catch he is also able to load quickly from a stationary position. Wallace was in the 90th percentile as a spot up shooter as a rookie, shooting a blistering 43% on catch and shoot threes. But he’s capable of attacking closeouts relying on technique, too. His pumps are exaggerated in a good way, and he takes a long initial stride, swinging the ball in front of him.

Wallace’s technique is also strong from a physicality point of view. He sets sharp screens, extremely valuable in the OKC offense as he often began a possession with a screen for SGA near the logo.

The technique jumps off the screen on defense. Wallace is particularly adept at mirroring ballhandlers, enabled by a discipline to rely on footwork to block off any path in an instant.

Watch Cason Wallace and you’re watching someone who pays attention to the little things in the lab. He concerns himself with the details many young players gloss over, which speaks volumes to his ability to improve.

Technique is, perhaps most of any of these traits, an indication of latent value. A technically sound player is able to apply that technique to any basketball action, assuming tied to a minimum level of athleticism. Technique is the bedrock of basketball success, and Wallace will only further refine his methods with time.

Conclusion

Cason Wallace is a boring watch for a potential star, but only if you don’t know where to look. Even where he does not completely check the box for a developmental trait, there are flashes. The key will be where Wallace’s on-ball usage settles, where he needs reps the most to realize the most upside. Perhaps there is a plan there involving bench units.

Wallace will undeniably become a star defender. In defensive DARKO Plus-Minus, he is ahead of the curve compared to Jrue, White, Smart and Caruso.

Grading out excellently in advanced metrics as a rookie is a great reason to believe in this story, but it is also embedded in the details. Wallace employs technique with physicality to dodge through screens (already an area where we’ve seen improvement) or to cover the right zone in a scramble.

The offense is the question mark. Wallace is likely a slightly negative to neutral offensive player in 2024-25, but the degree of involvement will tell us a lot. Wallace’s strength is again technique, which enables him to play on or off ball, as a screener or screen-recipient. Should he use the technique to buffer his small space coordination, problem-solving in a different way, Wallace’s offensive upside could be quite high.

I wrote this about Cason Wallace ahead of the 2023 draft:

“…you can become a star through the lack of mistakes as well. Cason has that path. It’s not common to reach it through simply doing every little thing on the court you’ve asked well without a truly dominant area, but maybe that’s exactly where Cason Wallace’s dominance lies.“

One year later, I only believe this more to be the case.

The post Cason Wallace’s Star Potential appeared first on Swish Theory.

This piece is not meant to give a firm rubric for how to evaluate players, but to catalogue tried and true methods of contributing on a basketball floor that happen to be present for all our best players. No two superstars are the same; in fact, superstars by their nature should be polarized as solving the problems of how to beat each other. If, then, they are all doing the same thing, over and over again? We should take note.

Trait #1: High Degree of Accuracy on Steals/Blocks

Ingredients: Spatial awareness, hand strength, timing, wingspan, positioning, balance

The game of basketball is about winning battles, but it’s also about how convincingly we do so. Swish Theory’s Roshan wrote about the same in his fantastic piece on margins.

Every superstar player I watched the prospect tape of has one, glaring trait in common: they all have superb hand-eye coordination, and exhibited on strips and blocks. One can pick up on these high degree of difficulty plays a few ways. How fast does the player move his arm or hands to make the play? How difficult was it to do so without fouling? Was this a repeated occurrence?

My favorite, though far from exclusive, way to assess these is “dead arm” steals/blocks. Hakeem Olajuwon is the prime example. Hakeem was not immune to jumpiness on the block, likely majorly to do with him being relatively new to basketball. Regardless, Olajuwon made spectacular plays constantly from his first minutes. These “dead arm” blocks would occur when he left his feet at a sub-optimal time, but was still able to angle his arm to knock the ball loose. An example is at the 12 second mark above: Olajuwon leaves early but is still able to fall in the perfect position to block the shot.

This is the clearest cut and least controversial category: visually, it should stand out dramatically, though not always the case, either.

Why is this so important?

Hand accuracy is essential to playing basketball for obvious reasons, but maybe some less than obvious ones as well. Steals are extremely valuable in completely stopping a possession and starting a favorable offensive set (advantageous transition) but also speak to the incisiveness a player is able to bring to the table.

To step into a play and completely strip your opponent of the ball is a dominant activity, completely going against what your opponent wants you to do. To accomplish that you have to take a timely risk, and the only way it can pay off is if you have the hands and coordination to pounce. This all happens in a flash: either you come out with the ball or you don’t.

These players are not just poking the ball free. They are doing so from awkward angles, or if in good position, convincingly so. The Dwyane Wade clips are my prime example (starting at 1:57 above). We see a strong vertical in clip 1, a “dead arm” block in clip 2, otherworldly timing in clip 3 and hounding on-ball defense in clip 4. In each of these scenarios he risks a negative outcome – fouling – but is so accurate with his hands and is able to move faster than others to get into the optimal spot. All of this is how Wade accumulated 3.5 stocks to 2.4 fouls at Marquette and 2.3 stocks to 2.2 fouls per game as a pro despite being only 6’4”.

These traits speak to how we play basketball, generally. Are we moving fast, are we accurate, are we on point, timing-wise? Even plodding Nikola Jokic is able to perfectly place his hands to the tune of nearly two stocks per game as a prospect. When someone mugs an offensive player to the point of you getting out of your seat, you know we are getting somewhere.

Trait #2: Pass Through Your Defender

Ingredients: Processing, planning, pass accuracy, vertical, manipulation, creativity, footwork

Switching to the offensive side of the ball, this trait speaks to the creativity and spatial reasoning of a player, while also capturing physical tools like pass accuracy. Going through the players chronologically, our earliest superstars all had one obvious trait in common: they loved to jump pass. Jordan, Olajuwon, Barkley, Robinson, O’Neal and Garnett could all be found leaping to then make a read even within small segments of game film.

A proclivity for jump passes may be counterintuitive: isn’t that the first thing youth coaches tell their players not to do? Well, it is also indicative of star upside. Again like hand accuracy on swipes, jump passes put the prospect in a dangerous situation, at risk of traveling, but stars have the complex tools to make the most of it. Jump passes were less common as the century turned, but could still be found in the prospect tape of almost every superstar.

I broadened the trait from just jump passes, however, to also include any ability to pass through your opponent. Meaning, your defender is in perfect position – no advantage has been created – yet you still find a way to sneak the ball through. Let’s call them advantage-creating passes. This may be well-timed lobs above the opponent’s head a la Stephen Curry, over-the-head outlet passes from Tim Duncan or dump-offs after a sequence of pivots from Dwyane Wade. Jokic, for all the complexities of his game, barely clears the ground anyways, so has little benefit for the exaggerated jump passes of Kevin Garnett, for example. But he still, mostly through timing and pass accuracy, is able to pass directly through traffic on command.

Why is this so important?

Assists are great for obvious reasons: they get you points and your teammates involved. But jump passes/advantage-creating passes are special because they require coordination moving dramatically in one direction while hitting a moving target going a different one. You have to adjust on the fly, either manipulating your defender into allowing the pass or finding an unexpected target at the last second. We should have our antennae ready to pick up on the obvious ‘pass through’ players like Jokic. The important point is that the ball goes from point A to point B despite an opponent standing directly in between. Even simply from a geometric standpoint, there is clearly something special happening, especially if the pass works repeatedly.

Trait #3: One-Two Punch

Ingredients: Balance, shooting technique, touch, coordination, vertical, core strength

Now we’re getting to maybe what is considered a more traditional superstar trait. Perhaps the most important of any we will discuss here, this is the building block for a high-level NBA scorer. A one-two punch is when you can make one quick move into a scoring action. Watching through the clips above one can see that change of pace is essential: how quickly can you organize into a bucket?

The most common one-two punch is the post up turnaround jumper, utilizing horizontal space (where you turn to) while also relying on a vertical to shoot over an opponent. But methods vary dramatically, especially as I reached more contemporary tape. Dwyane Wade loves to use hang dribble crossover into his pull-ups, again using that horizontal space into vertical. LeBron posts into turnarounds but also bullies his way closer to the cup. Steph manufactures horizontal space by running dutifully off-ball, with the ability to quickly move into a shot at the key moment. Jokic is again an outlier, a deadly outside shooter who has to do little to get his high-arching shot off. An important reminder: there are always stylistic exceptions.

Perhaps the two cleanest examples are Jordan and Shaq. Jordan was as fluid as anyone getting into his pull-up out of the post or face-up crossovers. Shaq was a devastating scorer already at LSU, bolstered by his unstoppable post into baseline bank shot lay in. These are staples that not only helped both translate immediately but were essential to them reaching the Hall of Fame status. It does not matter if it’s repetitive if it is consistently effective; in fact, repetitive might be preferable.

Why is this so important?

The game, as always, is about buckets. In a video from my childhood I can’t track down, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar talked about how a player only needs four moves: a right, a left, a fake right into left, a fake left into right. It can be tempting to seek out as much scoring versatility as possible, as indeed that will help stabilize a player’s performance too. But everyone needs a fastball, a building block that only makes it easier to branch off to more complex actions.

The first problem any player has to solve is to put the ball in the basket. Through a one-two punch, a player does not have to depend on their teammates to do so. All of the actions shown above require a high level of coordination, balance, touch, technique. If a player can corral all of those to punch in the gaps succinctly and smoothly, they are likely great athletes. The function is pure: to get buckets. But there’s an essential element of self-generated offense as well.

Trait #4: Go Up and Get It

Ingredients: Timing, vertical (max, repeat, instantaneous), hand size and strength, core stability, spatial awareness

Now we get to go back to our old-school fundamentals: let’s admire the classic rebound. Here is a trait exhibited by each and every superstar we watched, with the evidence fairly clear. “Go up and get it” sounds like it means: these players are excellent at snagging the ball at its peak.

Olajuwon is again a prime example, unparalleled in the apex he reached while perfectly timing his boards. You also have players like Charles Barkley, who make up for lack of height by doing a lot of work clearing out space on the ground, but nevertheless are able to leap at the perfect moment. Even Stephen Curry (5.6 board per 40), Dwyane Wade (8.4) and Chris Paul (4.6) punched above their height as guard rebounders, all capable of plucking the ball out of the grasp of taller players.

The most significant deviation, and perhaps surprisingly, was Tim Duncan. Duncan, simply, did not need to high-point rebounds given his superior positioning. Surely he is capable of snagging rebounds at their peak, one of the elite rebounders in NBA history, but it did not pop on the tape like with others. Instead, Duncan could be found carving out large swathes of territory with his picture-perfect boxout technique. Once again, these are more guidelines than hard and fast rules. Duncan did not need to high-point every single rebound due to other outlier traits; appreciate the function over the method.

Why is this so important?

Running up and grabbing a ball, as reductive as it sounds, is a lot of basketball. Simply put, it is difficult to find a star player who is not at least pretty good at rebounding. It is a building block of the game for a reason. But the tape specifically showed high-pointing the ball as the common visual cue. That places an emphasis on timing and vertical. Much like the previous traits, there is a very brief critical period at which the ball can be grabbed by you rather than someone else.

We also see a reiteration of many athletic ingredients from the prior traits: coordination, balance, timing, vertical, hands.

Trait #5: Unstructured Midrange Touch

Ingredients: Fine motor skills, balance, coordination, hand size, vertical

Perhaps the most impressive on tape were David Robinson and James Harden. Robinson was able to swing around in an instant to knock down midrange after midrange jumper no matter the angle or coverage. Harden, meanwhile, was able to use his incredible core strength to pull off plenty difficult attempts from all over the midrange. He was particularly adept at runners, shooting a 77th percentile efficiency on one per game. On tape the degree of difficulty showed.

Why is this so important?

There is once again an intrinsic basketball value – points are scored – while speaking to so much more. Touch is how you coordinate your hand to push the ball towards the basket; highlighting field goal attempts where a shot is less structured (i.e. different from a free throw which relies more on technique) gives us a cleaner glimpse into how successful one is doing so on the fly. Technique is important too, but easier to learn than touch.

In fact, success with touch near the basket seems to correlate with outside shooting improvement, too. David Robinson improved his free throw percentage from 58% as a freshman to 64% as a senior and then, further, up to 74% over his NBA career. Harden, meanwhile, went from 76% in college to 86% in the pros. Much like accuracy on strips/blocks, high level basketball is about having great hands. Skill is only conveyed through how we manipulate the ball, so we need all the help we can get physically.

We are seeking building blocks, and with unstructured short/mid touch, we have found one.

Trait #6: Drive with Force

Ingredients: Strength, balance, handle, coordination, flexibility

Forgive how this video is shorter; this was the category I added the last. But it likely is not the least important. Drive with force means to attack the basket in, well, a forceful manner. This can be Olajuwon and Robinson relentlessly squaring up to the offensive glass, or, more conventionally, James Harden dribbling hard to the basket from the perimeter. But it could also be Stephen Curry driving into his opponent’s shoulder without the ball before popping out for a three. Or Jokic lumbering towards the tin.

LeBron is the obvious example, often compared to a freight train when downhill. But this trait was most essential to note in a young Giannis Antetokounmpo. Extremely slender as malnourished at the time, Giannis nevertheless attacked the basket with the same ferocity we see today. While his role was to jack threes rather than drive to set up offense, Giannis made his chances through activity in transition or broken plays. In the absence of positive midrange touch indicators, Giannis’ driving was essential to preserve his route to superstardom.

Why is this so important?

Force is an important element in basketball, as these are strong players moving fast through space. Driving with force means inviting physicality as the initiator. While people often talk about gravity in basketball as referring to spacing at the three point line, there is a much denser pull towards the rim. An open layup is the best shot in basketball, and a free throw is the second best. Driving with force works towards achieving either one or the other.

Putting It All Together

Tallying up the ingredients shows us some underlying characteristics we can prioritize: balance, vertical, coordination, hands, core strength. While these provide a good baseline for physicality on the basketball court, I would remember that they are only useful tied together with concrete action, such as the six traits I highlighted above. Every one of the six actions involves a critical window which requires an immediate, durable application of these underlying characteristics. The more traits a player exhibits, and the more convincingly they do so, the better.

The goal with this piece, more or less, was to tie together player archetypes, competition contexts and age curves to note standard action items. With the six traits above, I have picked what has stood out to me the most as omnipresent in the prospect tape of past stars.

The post Spotting the Stars appeared first on Swish Theory.

“My propositions are elucidatory in this way: he who understands me finally recognizes them as nonsensical, when he has climbed out through them, on them, over them. (He must so to speak throw away the ladder, after he has climbed up on it.)

He must transcend these propositions, and then he will see the world aright.”

Or, as I probably oversimplify it, “climb the ladder to forget the ladder.” This passage has always stuck with me. Climbing the ladder refers to the constructs we use to advance our knowledge. In essence, once you have used certain tools to conceptualize an issue, you should focus on what you’ve learned rather than fixate on what got you there.

In draft work we are constantly climbing ladders. The name of the game is summarizing a player’s entire future performance in an ever-changing sport in a single numerical number: their rank. To do this we must conceptualize, using shorthand to assign values to various aspects of a player’s game. “Strong handle” we may label to several players on a big board. We give players these labels through visual cues, box score watching, media consensus, etc., all which color in the lines of our conceptualizations of a player. When you rank someone, you imagine their game in your head, but have to shorthand it through a skill grouping (“he’s the most versatile, therefore he’s a lottery pick”), player type (“he’s the best advantage creator, therefore he’s first overall”) or player comparisons (“he’s a Jaren Jackson Jr. type, therefore he is a top five prospect”).

We all do this, it’s the only way to get through it as there is no single perfect measure to represent this complex answer. What I am proposing, however, is to be more explicit about it. This is why I made a major change to my philosophical framework this draft cycle. I took all that I had learned from prior cycles where I had used a top-down model to assign discrete values. I climbed the ladder by internalizing the lessons from this framework, but left it behind to construct an original, new model.

My top-down model in the past worked like this: for every prospect, I would assign probabilities of them being anywhere from a -8 to +8 impact per 100 possessions player at their peak. I then assigned values to each outcome, where +8 was more valuable relative to +6 than +6 was relative to +4, and so forth down the line. There is a limit to how negative a player will be, so everything -4 and worse was scored as a zero.

The goal was to better capture the extreme outcomes, but ultimately fell prey to the same biases that are involved with a pure rank. This system led me to being far too low on Brandin Podziemski, for example. While I liked everything about Podz’ game, I did not assign him any star odds given his mid major competition and seemingly mediocre lateral quickness. I let these two concerns convince me that even in an optimistic scenario he would have limitations keeping him from star upside. Now I’m not so sure.

My 2023-24 model, rather, is bottom-up. It looks at underlying components that make up a player’s relation to the game of basketball. Instead of handing out odds, I grade three factors on a scarcity scale. While I’m still coming up with numbers in a way that’s likely subject to biases, the hope is that this factor-driven approach can drastically reduce them.

The first factor is production. This is essentially how many good things the player makes happen on the court. There are many attempts (such as Box Plus-Minus) to measure this which offer helpful aids in analysis. But there are also non box-score events like screens, deflections, box outs which are technically still production even though not counted. The way I liked to think about production is “how many things does this player make happen almost by accident” to capture the moving block of skill that is a productive player.

The second factor is feel. Now, we already see issues limiting the utility of my model. How does one produce without feel? How can you gauge it separately? Well, I can try. There are some measures that give clues, like assist to turnover ratio and stocks to foul ratio, but that is far from the full picture. Like productivity, but even more so, we must rely on the tape.

Third is dynamic athleticism, i.e. how much dominance a player can assert through physical means. Once again, overlap with the other two, but other clues available like number of dunks, offensive rebounds, drives, free throw rate. But I again find tape-watching essential: how does a player move and will it hold up at the next level?

I took public notes on my process, writing the three pieces linked above to show examples that were helping me determine the definitions. A quick reaction time to swipe a ball away: that is productive but also high feel, and if employing physicality then a plus for athleticism as well.

One major source of comfort in this methodology is that, even if there are overlaps in my grading, it would likely be in fertile territory for growth. The goal is not to measure current performance but that of a player over the course of their NBA career. The traits that fit into all three categories are likely solid foundations to grow upon. These are the undisputed tools that feed into development as much as current production.

One example of how the tri-factor process plays out, obvious to anyone following my content this season, is Jonathan Mogbo. He grades very well in all three factors: he was a highly productive NCAA player (though with competition level questions leading to a very good rather than elite grade); he was a highly effective passer, nailing teammates on structured and improvised reads alike (though his occasionally poor defensive reaction time keeps him from elite territory); his athleticism is unquestionable, third in the NCAA in dunks at 6’6.25’’ and a 7’2’’ wingspan. Why wouldn’t he be a successful NBA player?

However, the issue still persists: this is not a clear measurement of basketball value, more like a fuzzy approximation of ability and developmental slope. The overlap between factors will lead to misses, as my biases inevitably will assign points for gray area traits in multiple categories for some players. A full cycle of providing these grades certainly helped make the lines between factors are clear as possible, but there are still limitations. While the model is bottom-up in dissecting a player’s characteristics, it does not map cleanly to on-court happenings.

That’s why we’re mixing it up again, babyyyy.

I am more than happy with my board outcome, with Zach Edey at the top, and other sleepers in Oso Ighodaro, Terrence Shannon Jr., Dylan Disu and Tristen Newton. But can we do better?

This time, we’re staying completely on the floor in the most literal way imaginable. Once again, we have three factors, but we’re splitting apart by dimensions of basketball impact. Expect a new series of three detailing this new process but the essence is this: how does a player move their skillful self around with pace while applying force? A mouthful to say “how good are they at basketball,” but a better definition of what we’re trying to measure.

In this way we can separate impact by stationary skillsets, movement traits and physical force. All items are indirectly observable through film and box score watching, and therefore have less overlap with each other as tied to direct observation. It will take some training to translate each factor distinctly, but that’s what Swish Theory is for.

Implementing a beta version of this model shows one clear beneficiary who my previous method may have been too low on: Gonzaga’s Anton Watson. While I was still higher than consensus before, now I wonder if he is a legitimate rotation piece. Here’s why.

In my previous model, I ranked Watson low in production, high in feel/processing and mediocre in athleticism. The low usage rate for a super senior was the production red flag in particular. But considering the new model, what exactly does Watson not accomplish on the court?

Anton Watson had a 9.2 Box Plus-Minus, second in the WCC to Mogbo, which he accomplished partially by being skilled for his size. At 6’7’’, Watson can dribble some, shoot some and pass some, all while being a high stocks player on defense. Getting steals is skillful, and Watson has some of the best hands in class to help him do so. While not much of a shooter over his college career, he came alive this season as a 67th percentile efficiency spot up shooter and 74th percentile efficiency on runners. His touch was elite on layups, at 92nd percentile efficiency. He can set strong screens. There are not many areas of the court where Watson can’t have an impact. There is our first dimension.

Watson is also a good mover, not necessarily through mobility (though that’s fine) but intentionality. Watson is always in the right spot, leading to a very good 2.8% steal rate and 2.1% block rate while only fouling three times per forty minutes. He also advanced his driving, up by 40% per game from the season before. Not only is he skilled, but he moves to the right spot to utilize that skill. There is our second dimension.

Finally, Watson is strong as f*ck. He is a menace when he has a head of steam, a perfect 30 for 30 on dunks this season, and with a strong 0.44 free throw rate over his college career. Watson is skillful and able to be in the right place and also strong enough to enforce his will. There is our third dimension.

There were other major shifts in my ranking, too.

Players with substantial rises up my board: Anton Watson, Jaylin Williams, Ulrich Chomche, Dillon Jones, Reece Beekman, Kevin McCullar, Jared McCain, DaRon Holmes II, Dylan Disu.

Players with substantial falls down my board: Baylor Scheierman, Cody Williams, Zaccharie Risacher, Dalton Knecht, Matas Buzelis, Carlton Carrington, Alexandre Sarr.

Let’s see what trends we can parse from these differences.

Summarizing all the stats for these groups shows the risers exceling in two areas in particular compared to the fallers: steals (+47% in steal rate) despite a decline in fouling (-9%) and assists (+33% assist rate, +21% assist to turnover ratio). The increase in steals while declining in fouls points to surgical physicality and movement ability, as does the increase in assists with only modest increase in turnovers. This fits nicely with our new conceptualization of “skillful self moving with pace and force.”

The increase in assists, particularly to this degree, may be surprising, but passing is a substantial factor for covering ground. In particular, this method puts a premium on passers with a variety of deliveries, like Tyler Kolek, Reece Beekman and Dillon Jones. The more ways a player can make the ball move, the more space the opponent has to cover.

While Carlton Carrington has a very high assist rate, he still tumbled down my board due to very poor applied physicality: Carrington has the lowest steal rate of the groups and a sub-1% block rate. A player of Ajay Mitchell’s mold, meanwhile, struggles to pick up stocks without fouling (highest foul rate in both groups at 4.7 per 40 minutes). But he makes up for it in applied force due to his shiftiness on offense. With his flexibility and change of direction ability, his defender feels as if he was pushed backwards: that’s force applied by the ballhandler.

It may be surprising to see some names I was already low on among the fallers, specifically Williams, Risacher, Knecht and Buzelis. All four of them have limitations with their passing and steal rates and are below average in applied force. There is a good chance one of the four proves me wrong, but right now I view them as borderline undraftable players. A major divergence from consensus, with validation depending on the eventual results.

Ulrich Chomche is another standout name, rising from UDFA territory to first round consideration. Chomche is very young at 18.5, playing with NBA Academy Africa this past season. A very unusual profile for the three games with stats available, Chomche shot 33% on few attempts from two but 38% on many attempts from three. He did this while also blocking a ton of fouls and almost never fouling. Watching him, this applied physicality jumps off the page, especially for his age. His passing ability and shooting form are both excellent for a 6’10.25” player of his age as well. In the little game tape that is available of Chomche, he can be found making hit ahead passes in transition, operating out of the top of the key and just generally trying things. While still raw, he may be quite difficult to play against in his prime. The bet is appealing because if he hits, he has access to much more of the game and with more tools to act than someone like the 2024 draft’s number one pick.

There will certainly be flaws in this methodology as well, which is what the next cycle is for. We all use a lens to watch the game, whether aware of it or not, so might as well be explicit about it. This new model does not replace tape or data-based prospect analysis; in fact, it supplements it as the exact purpose. While there remain points of clarification, still, let’s check back in a year from now and see if we have gotten any closer.

The post Lessons from the Draft Cycle appeared first on Swish Theory.

The board below contains archetype tags, sourced from my articles for the Stepien discussing rim protectors, shotmakers, connectors and offensive engines. Also included are four custom metrics, gauged subjectively rather than statistically. Scalability is one’s ability to scale up or down in usage on either end of the court. Readiness is where on the contribution timeline a player lands. Specialness is the collective rarity of skills (or, on the flipside, commonness of other traits). Versatility is what it sounds like.

Big Board Spots 1 through 20:

Big Board Spots 21 through 40:

The post Matt Powers’ 2024 NBA Draft Big Board appeared first on Swish Theory.

We will cover four aspects of athletic display in basketball: offensive rim dominance, offensive midrange dominance, offensive perimeter dominance and defensive dominance. Each of our four examples demonstrate their “flex” in vastly different ways, but to the same result: getting or preventing buckets in a way that will persist as competition rises dramatically.

We’ll define the term athletic dominance as we go.

Rim Dominance: Jonathan Mogbo, San Francisco

Rims are not safe around Jonathan Mogbo. The guard-turned-big is only third in the NCAA to Zach Edey and Ryan Kalkbrenner in dunks, despite being seven and four inches shorter, respectively. Mid-major teams have elite athletes, too.

The number one most important tool for Mogbo is his catch radius. Catch radius defines how big your target is as a roller, and is constructed of several factors: max and standing verticals, vertical load time, wingspan, hand size. Mogbo scores highly on all of these. But catch radius is also about timing, and being physically able to change your location at a moment’s notice. That is a cognitive aspect, namely one’s reaction time, but a physical one too.

Can you change your short strides into long ones, and vice-versa? Mogbo can. He is capable of skying a foot or more above the rim to crash upon the rim. But he can also sneak in quicker oops, reminiscent of a middle hitter in volleyball. He can catch bad passes with his range but also very good ones with precision and timing.

A framework around – “outflexing” or “physical dominance” – whatever term you prefer, lies in how your body relates to others. Namely, how your body can physically withstand abrupt change but also resist a counterforce. Mogbo, in his true versatile fashion, is capable of both. Despite his bulky, wide-shouldered frame, Mogbo is capable of getting low to the ground and into an opponent’s body. Then, uprighting himself with great balance to sling a pass or attack the rim.

With alley oops he’s skyrocketing himself upward, but getting low-to-high near the basket is a major advantage, too.

Finally, the withstanding force. Mogbo has quick feet, which, again, are capable of chopping in an instant. This combined with his wide frame and great balance mean he is difficult to blow by, especially good at absorbing drives, hitting a roller or boxing out.

Essentially, Mogbo is capable of surpassing final walls of defense with his catch radius and sneaking through with his timing. His agility, foot speed and balance allow him to be specific in his movements; his strength allows him to withstand drives while driving himself into an opponent’s chest. Despite being only 6’9”, Mogbo is the premiere vertical threat in his class (with respect to Edey and Holmes) by blending in all these aspects.

Midrange Dominance: Isaiah Collier, USC

Just, and likely more important, than shooting a high percentage in the midrange is the ability to get there in the first place. Often the first item young ballhandlers struggle with at Summer League or the pre-season is getting past that first line of defense. As guards rise through competition levels, the ground coverage and ground resistance capabilities of their median point of attack defender rise exponentially.

Enter Isaiah Collier.

If Zay wanted to, he could have a picnic, take a nap, read a book in the paint. He is as comfortable breaking down a first line of defense as anyone in college basketball. Not built like a freshman, Collier can withstand a hard hand-check once, twice, however many times is needed to either power his way with a drive or power his way with a post up.

No size of defender is capable of withstanding Collier’s force, routinely pushing bigs backwards into the paint with choppy but strong strides. Because of this, no door is truly closed for Collier.

We see again the importance of being able to get low in an instant before popping back up at will. Collier is capable of doing this with short, quick steps to better position his heavy frame, with rare lower body stability to withstand the shifting of weight.

Collier weaponizes his paint touches well, particularly improving in efficiency as the season went on. He has the second best two point shooting percentage of any high major freshman with 200+ two point attempts. In fact, of all the players since 2008 who are categorized as Scoring Guards in the barttorvik.com database, Collier shoots the best on twos. He is also sixth in assist percentage. These inside the arc numbers combined with his passing is similar, at least statistically, to De’Aaron Fox and D’Angelo Russell’s NCAA profiles.

Collier is highly creative, which combines perfectly with his paint pressure. He is capable of getting to the “flex” spots of the floor that most bend the defense, and then is inventive in finding the best thing to do with the ball. When he uses his burst directly into a high speed pass, it may lead to turnovers here and there but the reward is often wide open layups.

This creativity is a big reason why Collier can get to finishing angles inside the arc, in spite of being a limited vertical athlete.

He can simply burst by his opponent, back him down, take elongated strides, create space with an arm bar, by backpedaling, or spinning into his body, or a hip check.

When he uses his acceleration in combination with appropriate application of strength, Collier is nearly impossible to contain. That’s what we’re looking for in midrange dominance, and easy bets say Collier will do just fine getting into his strength areas at the NBA level, too.

Perimeter Dominance: Rob Dillingham, Kentucky

Rob Dillingham has taken 128 threes and made 45% of them. He has taken 98 deep twos and made 44% of them. But it’s not the efficiency that stands out, but rather how Dillingham is getting his looks. It looks like he is playing on ice skates.

Dillingham’s movement ability is impressive. Not just bursty, not just quick, but also agile, nimble, shifty. When most players would be disoriented playing with such pace and skittishness, these traits are automatic for the Kentucky freshman. With space to operate, Dillingham is the best in class at hunting for perimeter openings.

His athleticism permits him to create horizontal space: with a wide cross or tween, he can shift his weight seamlessly to cover more distance than the opponent expects out of the listed 6’3” Dillingham. His body swings violently back and forth, as Rob utilizes his true superpower: his balance.

He uses this balance (in combination, again with a tight handle) to toy with opponents, exemplifying the hunting part of out-flexing.

His athleticism also allows him to create negative space: decelerating at full speed, Dillingham is able to go from low to the ground to upright in an instant. Yet again, the balance. Not just to be able to stop on a dime, but to then *reload* for your shot, requires moving in three distinct directions (sprint forward -> decelerate to a halt -> leap forward into a shot) in a second.

The important part of Dillingham’s game is not just that he has the arsenal, but is clever in deploying it. That functionality appears automatic as he predicts where his opponent will stick their top foot, already attacking as they do.

I have harped on the importance of changing your body shape from low to high, small to big and vice-versa, but Dillingham adds dimensionality to that. When he’s in his perimeter playground, Dillingham can change from slow to fast, low to high, high to low, left to right, front to back, accelerating fast, decelerating on a dime, all of that. While closer to the basket dominance requires more power, Dillingham is both sleek and stable in hunting perimeter openings.

One additional, significant benefit to that comes in his foul-drawing. While his free throw rate is still low for a given prospect, in consideration of his predilection for distance shooting and small stature, even a 0.25 free throw rate is enough to provide another dimension of value. The aesthetics stand out again, as does the method. When Dillingham attacks, he attacks. Weaponizing his deceleration but also shiftiness in general, Dillingham is able to get into a bigger opponent’s body with ease. The physical toll is likely a lot to manage over a full NBA season, but it is an important part of the arsenal. His ability to seek out physicality keeps defenders honest as they try to blanket his perimeter space.

Defensive Dominance: Ryan Dunn, UVA

Take everything we’ve learned about offensive dominance. How sleek while bursty movement creates force. Now, try to negate it – all of it – in a single player. That player looks like Ryan Dunn.

The first important quality is stickiness. How much can you stay glued to the hip of a perimeter creator without fouling? Opponents shoot a remarkably low 22% from two on drives when guarded by Ryan Dunn. He suffocates with long strides, chopping feet to then react in an instant, sliding in lockstep with the offensive player.

It’s partially his high feel overlapping here, as his instantaneous reaction speed allows him to gamble in ways that still keep him in the play. It would be bad technique, but Dunn recovers better than anyone. His 10.6% block rate, despite being only 6’8”, speaks for itself.

His wingspan also helps to close gaps quickly. He springs into action with his 7’1” length which matches well with his burst and second jump speed. The court shrinks for Dunn, where he is a beat away from making his presence felt at any given point. This is the ideal for a defensive forward: blocking off space with length; covering space with speed.

He can withstand force, too. His lower body maintains its springiness while also being extremely durable, a rare combination. Dunn was built to prevent buckets all over the court.

On any given possession, UVA trusts Dunn to play like an aggressive strong safety, hedging, icing, blitzing, trapping, monitoring whatever gaps. Dunn has done it all as he patrols the court. Some may saw this is a negative – NBA players shouldn’t gamble with abandon like this. But that is what Dunn has been asked to do, and he performs it magnificently. We know what happens when you ramp up his activity, and it’s only good things. Despite being top 5 in the NCAA in block rate and top 50 in steal rate, Dunn only fouls three times every forty minutes. In fact, no other high major player in the barttorvik.com database has improved upon his combination of steals, blocks and foul rate, with only Nerlens Noel coming close.

Putting it all together, Dunn stops rim dominance with his length, quick first/second/third leaps and his ability to withstand force. He cuts off drives preventing access to the midrange, while also blocking off passing lanes that would create easy looks. On the perimeter he is able to stick with guards with timely sliding. His long lower legs propel him back and forth while also staying on balance after dramatic movements over a distance. He is nearly the perfect defensive wing, capable of stopping actions from any angle. The offense may be nearly nonexistent, but there are few better defensive prospects than Ryan Dunn.

The post How Prospects Outflex Their Opponent appeared first on Swish Theory.

Because the magic is elusive, difficult to explain, let’s break it down clip by clip. Featuring the highest feel players in the 2024 NBA draft class:

Nikola Topic

Moniker: Mass manipulator

Nikola Topic comes out as the top feel prospect in the 2024 draft class for one major reason: he is the only one capable of freezing an entire defense at once. Topic does this in a couple of ways, but mostly built off of his drive threat (he takes 7 rim attempts per game, and finishes at a 68% clip). No one is better at knowing when to attack a gap than Nikola, monitoring multiple opponents at once.

Here he attacks right as the opponent is switching onto him, but also right at the moment his big is clearing out the opposing rim protector under the basket. His execution is flawless: instead of attacking immediately he eats up space waiting for the confusion of the switch. He then sells his left hard before crossing and accelerating with his right. Then a hallmark of Topic’s drives: he can pick the ball up early and still confuse a rim protector with his stride lengths and deception. This time cradling with his right to protect from the defender on that side, slowing his gather to leap just past the lone big but not drifting too far left.

Balance, speed and coordination are all needed to pull off moves like this, but more than that it requires a feel of the defense. Topic not just knows how to get past one defender, but how to run defenders into each other.

Topic’s drive threat enhances his passing and vice-versa, and how he maintains a stellar 2.2 assist to turnover ratio. He is adamant in pushing the ball ahead, with a keen understanding of where the soft spots of the defense are. Above, bursting into transition and hitting Nikola Djurisic filling the lane. Then, immediately after, hunting a rebound, kicking out to a shooter while in mid-air. In both instances Topic is ahead of the game, getting an edge on his opponents with his awareness in spite of lagging them by multiple years in age.

This pass might not catch your eye at first, but exhibits Topic’s flexibility of mind. Realizing he has committed to passing to a blocked path, Topic recovers mid-pass, twisting his hand to instead dump the ball off to the big waiting nearby for the assist. That instantaneous adaptability is rare, even if making up for his own mistake.

Here, Topic reads a backdoor flawlessly, executing an off-hand scoop laser. While seemingly designed, it still requires patience and timing. Topic is a true court general for a professional team, and a big part of that is teammates trusting you to make a hairline pass.

Topic knows how to run pick and rolls, but a lot of people know how to do that. What makes him unique is his ability to layer in multiple responsibilities at once, aware of his teammates, while also slicing apart a defense with his drives. To stagger footwork and dribble moves when an opponent is most off-balance is an ultra-valuable trait not maintained by many teenagers. To do that while also hitting whichever of your four teammates is most open is genius.

Reed Sheppard

Moniker: Muck in the gears

Sheppard was featured among our most productive prospects, but shines even more with his feel for the game. Reed is more subtle with his swindling of unsuspecting opponents. At 6’2”, Sheppard has good not great athletic tools, but he weaponizes them to maximum effect.

A major way Sheppard makes life difficult for his opponents is his spatial awareness.

A hallmark of Sheppard’s playmaking is he often looks out of place. This may be the reality here and there – Reed is aggressive in seeking out plays – but The Reed Method generally works. In the above clip, he tags the roller hard given the hard hedge, making sure to cut off the big’s roll. He leaves his man longer than advisable, but, in true Sheppard way, gets the steal anyways. He knows exactly where his man will be cutting and rotates to the exact point he needs.

Reed’s spatial awareness mixes excellently with his hand-eye coordination and timing. Sheppard blocks shots by swiping in the single foot of space that will allow a non-fouling contest. This happens often – he is first in steal rate and sixth in block rate (yes, despite being only 6’2”) among high major freshmen in rotations.

On offense, Reed’s feel shines in three areas: his ability to seek out soft pockets, his ability to get shots off in small spaces, and his creative passing deliveries. In the above clip Reed weaponizes his hesitation dribble in a unique way. He first hesitates off of the ball screen to give his roller more time. Realizing the roll man isn’t on time (and, in fact, two defenders are on his tail), he takes a second hesi, this time faking a layup with the move, an inventive solution. Hesitations work for fake shooting, not just feigning a pass, and allow Sheppard to keep his dribble alive long enough to find the corner shooter.

Reed has to get creative due to his stature, which we’ve seen him accomplish in his defensive coverages and now also his passing. Add in his ability to get shots off in tiny spaces with heightened awareness and you see the outlines of a savant.

Reed Sheppard has best in class spatial awareness and hand-eye coordination, two traits that combine to make a stocks machine. Adding in his small space craftiness mean his feel is truly elite. Sheppard covers large territories by moving with intention and knowing how to beat people to their spots. He covers small spaces with near perfect hand placements. While not always perfect, he has the tools to make as advanced feel plays as anyone this class.

Devin Carter

Moniker: Now you see me

Devin Carter has been a feel god for his three college seasons, and especially on the defensive end where he has accumulated 182 stocks to only 153 fouls. But Carter’s feel extends beyond simply knowing how to swipe the ball on defense, especially as he has expanded his offensive game significantly in the 2023-24 season.

Here we see one kind of Carter’s magic. In the middle of the paint with three defenders swarming, Devin somehow manages to find the space to finish and adjusts to use the backboard despite the awkward angle. Carter has a knack for finding angles like this, and all over the court. This is the kind of innate talent that allows him to finish at a 67% clip with three of every four makes self-created.

Carter is capable of thinking ahead to bend the defense, too. In the above clip he pushes into the gap to his right knowing how that would collapse help. The second the rim protector (#23) commits, Carter is ready to dump it off to his man. While Carter mostly engages in connective passing – moving the ball along the perimeter to play finishers – his development as a play finisher has meant more opportunities to pass out of scoring gravity like this. While he may force looks here and there (his 1.3 ATO ratio leaves something to be desired), the idea is always sound.

Make sure you finish the above clip! Carter, ever one step ahead, jumps in front of the rebounder to bully the ball back in his hands. He misses the trey, but the willingness is encouraging as well – Carter has miraculously raised his three point attempt rate from 6.5 attempts per 100 as a sophomore to 11.0 (!) as a junior. And while raising his 3P% from 30% to 39%

Another example of his passing progression. Carter is not accustomed to being hedged against that high, with newfound three point volume extending his gravity (6.5 3PA/game after 3.5 last season). However, he has immediately figured out how to use this to his passing advantage. Here, Carter makes a push dribble to split the hedge, then engaging with his two shooting targets. While nothing special for traditional point guards, this development is key to Carter’s upside. Not just for the skill itself, but for his ability to problem solve in evolving ways.

Carter appears where you least expect him to succinctly apply his broad skillset. It is tough to count him out of any single play given how he can connect passes, create them, finish off of drives or from deep and create transition opportunities on defense. All of these make him a first round-worthy prospect, with a solid floor and perhaps continually untapped upside, building on some of the best feel in the class.

Reece Beekman

Moniker: Cuts like a knife

The first clip below is quintessential Beekman, as you can already see how he deserves to be on this list.

Reece sets up the offense before receiving an exit screen he hides behind, then gaming the re-screen by rejecting in favor of the baseline. Already he has found a gap, and simply through accuracy of positioning. Next, he gives a slow snake through the paint before whipping a one-handed kick out to the corner. But the sequence is not done. Back on defense, Reece sprints through a double drag quickly enough to swipe around the ballhandler, poke the ball free and dunk.

Everything is on display here, from his care to involve his teammates on offense, his specificity of footwork, his situational awareness to take well-timed risks.

Above another accomplishment of a lot with a little. Recognizing that his teammates’ disorganized screening and cutting was futile, Beekman slashes into the lane with his left (65% of his drives). He waits for both of UVA’s shooters to clear out as he makes his move, help turned away or obstructed. Then, in the middle of the lane, he keeps his defender on his back with a well-timed hesitation sideways into his body. This also freezes the big man help, as his hesi opens up a passing window should he choose to dump it off. Instead, he finishes with a wide open window.

While UVA’s offense might get him easy assists as he is the conductor surrounded by cutters, Beekman has also figured out how to sneak in rim attempts below the radar like this. Beekman’s self created rim attempts per game increased by 40% from last season. He’s getting plenty of opportunities with his 28% usage but figuring out how to expand efficiently – his 52% true shooting is the highest mark of his college career. As a mediocre shooter overall, gaming interior opportunities like this is essential.

Beekman is a surgeon on the defensive end. He weaponizes his knife-like hands with perfect swipe placement, aggressive with both hands. According to the barttorvik.com database, Beekman has two of the seven seasons with a 4% steal rate or higher and fewer than two steals per 40 minutes. He clears both thresholds easily, the highest steal rate of that group with the second fewest fouls. He is the best perimeter defender in the class, through a wide stance capable of choppy feet but also picture-perfect positioning, timing for when to swipe. He will be an elite defender at the next level, too.

Reece Beekman has leveraged the same type of footwork accuracy that has made him a deadly matchup on the defensive end to expand his game on offense. With rim attempts and assists per game increasing ever year, it is unfair to count Beekman out for continuing to make his offense NBA-viable. Simply being where you’re supposed to, then cutting like a knife with decisive action is how Beekman operates. That will be deadly regardless of the competition.

Oso Ighodaro

Moniker: Steady presence

Our only big among the highest feel players (with respect to Clingan, Hall, Holmes, Almansa, Mogbo, Yang, Filipowski, Broome…there are a lot of high feel bigs in this class), Oso Ighodaro is the most mistake-free player on this list. Ighodaro gets stocks without fouling and assists without turning the ball over. He is the fulcrum for Marquette, and they are happy to allow him to make countless important decisions each game.

The first clip is on execution, Oso’s specialty. Just as his man begins to roll, noting the difficult angle the ballhandler would have to make a pass, Oso hops aggressively to trap the ball. Flustered, the ballhandler coughs it up with ease. Sticking with the play, Oso is ready for the ball on the fast break, takes a beat to spin to an opening and…blows the layup. It happens. But the important part is Oso is always ready, and in position.

Another example of perfect execution with a flair of creativity. Oso is a great screener, often considered a lost art in young bigs. Here he hunches over, making his body as big as possible to lock up the ballhandler’s defender. He rides this mismatch to the tin, and then, after a poor delivery, is nimble enough to spin mid-air and find a shooter. Ighodaro is not just capable of running your plays, but is prepared to adjust when things go awry.

Ighodaro is excellent with positioning on both sides of the court. Here he is vigilant to prevent the clear out, and then also the entry to Joel Soriano, despite being disadvantaged by 35 pounds. He gets leverage both high (pulling Soriano’s shoulder back) and low (getting under his center of gravity). When the Marquette defense breaks down anyways, Oso is ready to help — but not too far. Staying one step away, he has just enough time to rotate back for the block.

This type of feeling out positioning as not a strict guideline but basis to then make plays is the hallmark of Oso Ighodaro’s game. Any NBA team would be comforted by his stable presence, but also feel comfortable running second side actions in an instant. He has done this at a very high level with Marquette – bolstered by excellent finishing touch – and would be just as reliable in the NBA.

The post How Prospects Read the Game appeared first on Swish Theory.

That’s the first question I ask myself as I begin the process for my 2024 NBA draft board. By separating production, feel and athletic premiums, I will try to show my notes as I sort out my analysis of 2024 prospects.

Starting with production makes sense given it is the most observable, and by far. Players produce by getting stats, and we have plenty of stats. However, it is not as simple as a 1:1 translation, as many highly productive college players struggle to reach close to that production in the pros. The reverse – little production leading to great production – is rarer, but still occurs.

For our analysis, the definition of production will be something like: “able to make things happen almost by accident through presence and skill.” The “by accident” part works to strip away feel from the equation, which will be the next article. “Through presence and skill” aims to remove the athletic component, the third prong.

While grading prospects based on expectations of future production is impossible with 100% accuracy, the hope is we can land close enough to separate our views from consensus. Rather than spend a long article describing how production can play out on a basketball court, I illustrate how production occurs through five examples.

Tier 1: Dominance

Primary Example: Zach Edey

How does he produce on the court?

Zach Edey is the pinnacle of production, as shown by his NCAA-leading Box Plus-Minus of 14.3. This is the 12th highest mark in the barttorvik.com database, after posting the 13th highest mark the season prior. Edey is a beast.

His production is far from hidden, either. At 7’4”, 300 pounds with a 7’10.5” wingspan, Edey is gargantuan. His movement ability has improved every year, too. With his combined size and movement abiliy, Edey creates events on the floor almost on accident. Add in nimble footwork and elite spatial awareness and you have a player not just lumbering around but dodging and flipping hips as well at his size.

It would be miserable to be screened by Edey or have to box him out. That physical dominance earns Edey a 10 out of 10 for production, but not just for current rather than expectations in the pros.

How easily does he produce?

The margins Edey wins by are astronomical. It is tough to scratch the ceiling above rebounding 26% of defensive opportunities or 17% of offensive ones. When he posts up, he is capable of holding that position for many seconds awaiting an entry pass, and then is able to convert that into a hook, drop step, or just straight dunking right over his opponent. There is more scoring versatility than meets the eye with Edey, simply through the variety of angles he has access to at his size.

In addition, Edey is a vigilant screener and passer. It is easy to imagine him as an NBA-level screener at his size and movement ability, and likely a very good one. He has figured out how to double-hand kick-out pass above all opponents’ heads, more difficult in the NBA with swarming long-wingspanned defenders, but Edey’s size to find better angles won’t go away.

How will this get harder in the NBA and how can he adapt?

My counter-intuitive take is it might, in fact, get easier in the NBA. At the college level Edey has to deal with a double or triple team every single time he touches the ball. This has likely boosted his assist rate (again, the biggest area of production concern), but raised the degree of difficulty on his finishes (not that it mattered). The ease with which Edey can navigate multiple surrounding defenders swiping at the ball to still turn and finish should not go unnoticed, and might indeed lead to continued easy buckets in the pros.

Edey’s weakness is defending away from the basket, but as a likely drop defender that should have little impact on his overall production. His steals will be low but blocks high (he has swatted 8% of opponent attempts) and rebounding should continue to be above average for a big, if not flat out excellent.

Edey has improved his movement ability and fitness quality every year with Purdue. This provides a lot of encouragement to his ability to adapt to the pros. However, it is possible (if not likely) that his opponent will have to do more of the adapting, to Edey’s size and skill. Edey has put up historic usage and rebounding rates while shooting a spectacular 67% true shooting (84% at the rim, 41% midrange, 72% from the line) to the point that even a standard deviation drop would still be excellent. He makes things happen on the court constantly and will at the next level, too.

The question of whether the speed of the game is too much for Edey ignores the major strides he’s made in his fitness and also his dominance per minute. He might need to make additional improvements to physique to play over 30 minutes per game but he has shown the ability to do that the past two seasons at Purdue. Advanced training in the NBA (Zach has not yet turned 22) can help that along. However, Edey’s talent is worth slowing down for, and that would only likely be a little.

Examples of others in this tier?

None

Tier 2: Conditional Dominance

Primary Example: Reed Sheppard

How does he produce on the court?

Reed is on the opposite end compared to Edey’s stature: at 6’3” and 187 pounds, Sheppard faces an uphill battle for his production. He compensates with everything else.

To be a productive player you have to make unlikely events possible, and that’s exactly what Reed does. His greatest strength is his positioning and hand placement, as one thinks themselves open to only be surprised by a last second Sheppard. Sheppard’s production is difficult to separate from his feel, as he moves across the court almost automatically in optimal position. The production is real and significant all over the court, as Sheppard’s 12.4 Box Plus-Minus is the highest for all freshmen by a long shot. Indeed, he only trails Zion Williamson, Anthony Davis, Chet Holmgren, Michael Beasley, Evan Mobley, Karl-Anthony Towns and Kevin Love in the all-in-one box score statistic. The height hasn’t mattered to reach historic production already compared to his age group.

This means Sheppard’s production is all-encompassing, from stocks to rebounds to assists and points. By being in the right position and having the skill to capitalize, Sheppard looks like one of the most productive college players of all time.

How easily does he produce?

What prevents Sheppard from landing in the first tier is his stature at only 6’3” (and that might be generous). Simply by that fact the margins for him to overcome are more significant than for someone like Zach Edey who will always be a foot taller than Sheppard. His handle is also more functional than masterful, limiting his roaming with the ball and thus blocking off an area of potential production. Neither has mattered in the least for Sheppard, but he may find himself struggling to have an impact inside the arc against a trying matchup here and there in the pros.

The production on defense, however, is undeniable. Sheppard feels omnipresent on the court, rotating faster than one can process watching him. He is very strong, capable of banging in the post and stonewalling drives, but more importantly knows how to leverage that strength. This will give him a lynchpin on defense, not being attacked physically, to then make things happen with his rapid, accurate hand movements or by popping out of nowhere.

The distance shooting is bankable, too. He has taken 8 threes per 100 possessions and made over half of them. His release is lightning fast with little load time and good release point. That volume shooting will help space the court at any level, making closeouts easier to reduce the burden on his handle, and also open up passing lanes. Reed is not the most manipulative passer but, similar to his handle, is excellent at making it functional nonetheless.

How will this get harder in the NBA and how can he adapt?

Sheppard is so masterful in what he does well and versatile across the court it is highly likely he will produce at a high level in the NBA. The biggest challenge is the longer wingspans blocking off his passing lanes on offense and making his contests more difficult on defense. But Reed has already found ways to compensate for both. He gets off the floor very quickly with good ‘instant vertical.’ His hand placement often shows awareness to exactly where an opponent’s release point will be, or where they will gather before the attempt.

Sheppard’s feel for the game hints at future improvements, but that is for the next article. Sheppard is capable of producing (and likely very well) at an NBA level today with his activity, physicality and versatility of skillset. He creates events almost automatically as he gets into an opponent’s body or lets it fly in a split second from deep. Despite his stature, he is imposing physically in his own way.

While there can be knits to pick for his athletic tools, getting blown by or shot over here and there, he has used those opportunistically to reposition and make something happen even so.

Examples of others in this tier?

Jonathan Mogbo, Ron Holland

Tier 3: Omnipresence

Primary Example: PJ Hall

How does he produce on the court?

Post ups, spot ups, rolling to the basket. Cuts, transition looks, putbacks. PJ Hall does all of those things at least once per game. He also does that while vacuuming up rebounds, blocking shots and getting some assists and steals. His 30% usage for Clemson is top 10 in the country.

PJ Hall is active. Although not the quickest laterally (steals his weakest stat), Hall is a bruising big, listed at 6’10” and 238 pounds, who is physical all over the court. His front line speed and explosion is better than the mobility otherwise would suggest.

And yes, he scores from all over. While not the most difficult of looks – he only has five made shots off the dribble – it points to his variety of usage. By being strong and physical and constantly in place, Hall is ready.

How easily does he produce?

Hall is only in the third tier for this reason: the margins are often thin, especially for his scoring. His rebounding is likely the most ironclad contribution: Hall has a decent wingspan and can get off his feet quickly. Contested boards become clean ones often, with PJ claiming his with fervor.

The blocks come next, again benefitting from his interior strength and above average leaping. While far from a primary rim protector, an opponent would at least not be able to lose track of Hall’s location.

Hall has plenty of scoring versatility in college, which works for him in some ways but against in others. To start with the bad news, there is no obvious easy day one offensive specialty. His outside shot is okay (33% from deep, 79% from the line) with better luck inside the arc (57% from two). His primary scoring output comes from post ups, at 7.4 per game.

The good news is the breadth of skill means you don’t have to choose any single way to use him. Hall can fill in admirably in many spots. His post ups are not slow and plodding but decisive and featuring many drop step dunks. Posting up might not be his sweet spot but rather a means to an end.

How will this get harder in the NBA and how can he adapt?

The biggest difficulty for Hall on an NBA floor will be sticking to his man. While likely quick enough to guard your average big, he would often be faced with an athletic gap when defending in space. His fitness and physicality will counter that, a locked in facet of his game regardless of competition.

The biggest question is his willingness to let it fly, a major source of production in itself. Should he continue to let it fly with little hesitation, perhaps bolstered by a little more improvement in his percentages, Hall being in Tier 3 means he has more than enough stuff to stick around.

Examples of others in this tier?

Cody Williams, Matas Buzelis

Tier 4: Consistent Presence

Primary Example: KJ Simpson

How does he produce on the court?

Playing against KJ Simpson must feel like whack-a-mole: wherever you snuff out his movement, a moment later he’s popping up elsewhere. At just 6’2”, Simpson overcomes his stature a few ways: his strength, his instincts, his vertical pop, his quickness. These all make Simpson difficult to screen and difficult to keep out of the paint.

Let’s return to our definition of production, “how many things does he make happen by accident?” As he’s #13 in the NCAA for Box Plus-Minus, it seems a lot. He rebounds (16% rate), assists (26%) and gets plenty of steals (3.4%). He leads his team in usage at 27%. The statistical case for Simpson is very strong.

Simpson is capable of no-load threes as well as skying in for the occasional dunk (9 so far this season). He gets into his pull-up smoothly with four self-created perimeter points per game. He may not be a traditional tank knocking people around to cause chaos, but he can do it surgically while powerfully.

How easily does he produce?

The visual evidence is murkier than the stellar statistical resume. KJ Simpson wins often by small margins, but is intentional enough in his application that he gives just enough effort to win. This hints at Simpson being able to scale up or down at the NBA level as he can deliberately focus his efforts onto different roles. Need an on-ball initiator? An off-ball catch and shooter? A closeout attacker? A ball-moving connector? Simpson can effectively do any of these.

On defense, the steals come by activity and physicality. Simpson can bully weaker NCAA guards, even at only 189 pounds. He hits screeners when he is screened and boxes out hard. These might not all create events but it does carve out space on the court, and more than all but a few NCAA guards.

How will this get harder in the NBA and how will he adapt?

The NBA is not kind to small guards. But how small does Simpson play, really? There will be many plays that simply sail over his head which would not at the NCAA level, with the NBA full of big and wing creators. But Simpson’s role and athletic versatility will ease the adjustment.

While small guards still survive in the league, the margins are very thin. Simpson needs to continue refining his toolset to ensure an NBA impact. Already built and quick and a good leaper, Simpson is not far off from the median point guard’s athleticism, and may be greater than. But the easy victories will stop, only tough ones from here. This is why I ultimately knocked him down to an 8.5, in spite of a stellar of a statistical resume as nearly anyone in the NCAA.

Simpson is a good bet to find a way to contribute, but the degree is highly uncertain. Regardless, that’s a bet I’d be comfortable making in the first round.

Examples of others in this tier?

Tyler Kolek, Baylor Scheierman

Tier 5: Selective Presence

Primary Example: Milan Momcilovic

How does he produce on the court?

Milan Momcilovic is not convincing as an NBA-level athlete, but has the tools and skill to succeed regardless. His production is the most siloed of any we’ve described so far: he takes (and makes) a ton of threes. Despite this narrow avenue of contribution, Momcilovic still ranks in the top 10 for high major freshman by Box Plus-Minus. This is because Milan is 6’8” and has a quick, high release. Sometimes the analysis doesn’t need a second question: Momcilovic produces by hitting unblockable shots.

The rest of his game is middling, dragged down by his poor foot speed, limited burst and stiffness. A 12% defensive rebound rate and 2.1% block rate are closer to the stats of a 6’5” prospect than a 6’8” one, but there is a baseline of production nonetheless. And while Milan is not very mobile, he is still enough to be a consistent presence guarding fours.

How easily does he produce?

Momcilovic’s production is tilted towards three point volume, and that’s where he’s winning by large margins. The effective release height on his shot is more like a 6’10” player than a 6’8” one, releasing above his head with great arc. When we’re talking about projectable production, it is difficult to get more bankable than a release point that high going in at a 40% rate on very good volume. But that’s what we have with Milan.

His size comes in handy, even if not snagging down rebounds or skying for blocks. At his size he can set effective screens and generally be a big body on the court. Even when he’s not adding to his stat total, he’s taking up more space than the average NBA player.

How will this get harder in the NBA and how will he adapt?

He will be attacked on defense. Finding the right player to park Milan on will be essential for his early career success. Milan has little chance of hanging in with either 3s or 5s, relegated to the non-explosive 4s. That makes the margins tighter on offense where he has to be successful with his strengths. This is why Momcilovic is in Tier 5, as there is little guarantee he can hang in enough to capitalize on his strengths.

But the bedrock of high volume, high accuracy three point shooting is a function needed by every team, and Momcilovic is convincing as almost anyone in the class for that role.

Examples of others at this grade?

Wooga Poplar, Tre Mitchell

The post How Prospects Make Things Happen appeared first on Swish Theory.

This is not a preview of MIP candidates per se, but an appreciation for all the ways players improve, whether starting out their career and finding initial footing, figuring out their role mid-career for the first time, or taking a true, traditional star leap. Improvements happen all over every NBA floor, year after year, so it is more instructive to look at the nature of improvement itself, here in seven prevalent examples.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

Thesis: The MVP Scoring Leap

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander might buck the notion that the Most Improved Player winner is unpredictable; SGA’s star leap seems all too predictable, yet still that impressive. Shai’s rate of scoring has more than doubled from his rookie 19 points per 100 possessions to 44 points per 100 in 2022-23. Believe it or not, it could go higher.

SGA simultaneously has the dead-eyed professionalism that suggests he was made in a lab, while also maintaining the grace of a figure skater. The incisiveness and sharp edges of a figure skater, the ability to seek for opponent’s weaknesses like a machine. This is my brain trying to reconcile just how unique Shai is.

Maybe the best way is with some tape.

Here’s one way he destroys a defense, with an imperceptibly quick first step matched by long strides to create space. Easy. SGA can score a lot of these.

Above is a more hard-fought bucket, where SGA pulls an in-and-out decelerating into a spin into a dragged-foot gather and quick release to avoid the shotblocker. While others may be able to pull off this sequence, they can’t as smoothly or succinctly. To alternate the footwork here requires flexibility of mind, to instantaneously change cadence and strategy within a drive.

Finally, the strength and touch. Shai’s lower body flexibility, with long strides but also able to get lower to the ground in an instant, allows him to drive into an opponent as they are backpedaling.

Shai has truly leveraged his deceleration to create space, wingspan to get shots off and supreme touch to become one of the deadliest midrange scorers in the game. In 2022-23, he shot 48% on these with 9 attempts per 75 possessions. Based on the innumerate tools we can count, it’s tough to say these numbers will revert:

Putting it all together, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes a defender play back to avoid blow-bys, play up to avoid giving him leverage; makes a rim protector come out to protect the midrange, but also be wary of his endless finishing craft at the rim; if help comes, Shai is ready to swing ambidextrous one-hand kickouts. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is impossible to guard. With a more well-rounded team around him and a full slate of health, expect him to take yet another scoring leap, potentially league-leading.

The defense, well, is fine! Maybe more than fine. The effort comes and goes, but when he locks in – more often than not, if just barely – he can make some stellar plays on the ball with his rangy wingspan and quick ground coverage.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is commonly accepted as a star, with some even considering him a top 10 player in the league. This year, he solidifies it, and maybe even then some as a potential MVP candidate if he can do just a bit more of the same for a more competitive team.

Markelle Fultz

Thesis: Finding a Home

Markelle Fultz is a fun basketball player. It can be easy to forget that given his tumultuous NBA experience to date. But Fultz still only recently turned 25 and quietly has figured out how to work around his limitations. As such, and despite still falling short of the promise of his #1 selection, he should be considered part of Orlando’s young core.

Markelle Fultz defies the conventions regarding shooting gravity. I’ll show you how he creates both time and space despite still little sign of a three point shot.

First, the time.

Fultz has figured out how to win with oblique angles, whether driving sideways or taking an exaggerated turn in a spin move, all to make the court seem bigger than it is. While many guards create time by first-step advantage creation, Fultz takes the scenic route while accomplishing the same goal.

Here he uses his strength matchup to punish Brunson, biding time for the Paolo Banchero cut.

While spacing is a chief concern for the Magic offense overall, it’s possible Fultz has figured out a way to game his own.

Here he creates space for his teammates with non-three point forms of gravity: first, the midrange.

Markelle took major steps towards developing his middie this season, up to 46% from the field albeit on lower volume.

This is the first way Fultz challenges coverage out to the perimeter, the second being his complex route-carving:

Given a cushion, Markelle chooses his route and good luck staying in front (IQ does a fair job here). While his overall spot up efficiency remains subpar, his volume increased substantially and he made progress as the season went on. Fultz, in all his energetic approach to the game, is highly creative in adding complexities to his drives, different ways to approach the rim or pull-up in midrange. The accumulation of playing time – still to play 200 games – has finally accelerated that. His 138 drives this season nearly doubled his previous career total of 162, per Synergy.

On top of all this, Fultz is a terrific defender. With the instincts for timing and the athletic profile to make plays like this:

Given his continued development of the midrange and general creativity in driving, Markelle Fultz has overcome the challenges of his early career. Sooner or later he might be rightfully considered an important part of the Orlando core alongside Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner.

Jalen Duren

Thesis: A New Nightmare

Jalen Duren is a big and strong and physical presence on the basketball court, but that’s not all. But he’s mostly that, and we should dwell on it first. Duren is simply undeniable from an athletic standpoint, and while it takes little time watching to understand that, it deserves emphasis all the same. “There are a lot of big, strong athletes who don’t make it in the league, so give me a reason to care,” one might say. They are not like Duren.

Jalen Duren is 6’10” and 250 pounds, and already one of the biggest problems on the block. As a 19-year-old rookie, Duren was in the 93rd percentile for defensive and 97th percentile for offensive rebounds. 83rd percentile for shotblocking. Those rebounding numbers are very similar, while block numbers pale to fellow rookie Walker Kessler‘s. But Duren is both two years younger and had nearly twice the steal rate, speaking to his unusual production for age as well as ability to move further away from the paint. That last part is key to his star odds on both ends of the floor.

But first, just marvel:

That last clip above is particularly astounding to me, a man of that size ale to *dunk under* a smaller big in an instant to then finish in the open court. But we digress.

Jalen Duren‘s stardom hinges, for the most part, on his on-ball play for both offense and defense. On offense, there simply isn’t enough evidence to rule out Duren providing services beyond the traditional big man. The flashes of putting it all together are there, highlighting his coordination and surprising touch with the ball given his mallet hands.

Here, a left-to-right between the legs crossover to get inside of Jokic?

This, to me, is THE Duren clip. A quick read with timing and accuracy. Hitting the offensive boards with force. One dribble around rim protector to finish. That last part will only look cleaner and cleaner, as he still tried to force rim finishes from tougher angles than he needs to take. He’ll realize that, and soon, if not already.

Duren does not have to be hitting pull-up threes (as he was attempting in Summer League) to contribute on the perimeter. He will already be setting a million screens, an item he is improving upon but already effective at given his size and physicality. His free throw, midrange and rim shooting percentages, in addition to passing softness, have always pointed to someone with at least decent-to-okay touch as well.

He will be a monster in the interior, in particular playing off of Cade Cunningham who projects as one of the savvier PNR maestros in the league (they have not even played 80 minutes together). The threat of Cade’s midrange game combined with his passing acumen make Duren an obvious lob target; Cade’s inability to create initial separation only makes Duren’s screening more valuable.

But it’s his passing and handle that have shown glimmers of being something. Duren has a keen sense of timing, if not always 100% accurate, and loves to find cutters in unexpected positions.

Jalen Duren will never be an on-ball focal point. But, if after guarding the initial actions run by Cade Cunningham and Jaden Ivey, opponents have to deal with *anything at all* from Jalen Duren, it will likely be trouble. Simply, teams do not have the personnel to both keep a player of his size from dominating in the interior while also sticking with him near the three point line. If Duren can take a single dribble to then hit a cutter, or simply make the right basic reads to find a scorer in a pinch, that makes the Pistons’ game plan all the more dynamic. Pair that with Duren’s ability to not just protect the rim but switch onto the perimeter on defense, and the opponent runs out of answers.

If he can combine offensive growth with continuing to develop physically (a scary thought, but he is still not even 20), Duren not may but will be an All-Star in this league, and maybe sooner than you think.

Onyeka Okongwu

Thesis: Student to Master

Contrary to popular belief, it’s not easy to be the roll partner for Trae Young. It is extremely beneficial to one’s career if it works out – fair – but is far from a simple job. Onyeka Okongwu had his soft tryout for the position this season, and showed he is nearly capable with improvements in important areas. By far the most essential of those was, simply, getting used to playing next to Trae Young.

Before the 2022-23 season, Okongwu had only played 582 minutes next to Young, a little over one-third of his playing time. This past season, Onyeka played the majority of the time next to Trae, nearly tripling their career minutes together with 931 as a duo. Over this time OO learned how to set screens and not set screens, in a system with constant PNR play with two high usage ballhandlers in the backcourt. More importantly he learned how to dive to the basket.

Onyeka is short for a center at 6’9” but he is not small. He has the strength to match up with any big, but also accelerates like one, a bit slower than you’d like for a smaller center. However with his core and lower body strength matching his upper, Onyeka is able to make up for a slow initial step by leaping out of a cannon with powerful strides. Smartly, OO has figured out how to use this extra instant before catching up to design a path of his choosing.

To begin the season Onyeka was a bit shy looking for the ball on rolls to the basket, but by the end of the season became decisive in when to commit his dive to the hoop, showing for the ball along the way.

The results have been fruitful: Okongwu took the 17th most two pointers off of pick and rolls in the league, shooting 5th best of that group (behind Claxton, Gobert, Capela and Sabonis). He has also learned to weaponize this preternatural syncing of his leaps to action on the offensive glass, where he ranked 9th in putbacks and finished best in efficiency of those nine at 69% shooting.

He has also made up for some of the defensive slack as Capela has declined on that end. Okongwu exceeded Capela’s steal and block rates, though still fouling at a greater frequency. But Onyeka is capable of extending out from the rim near the three point line, hanging in on switches but most importantly suffocating the top of the paint with his activity, wingspan and strength, one of the best driver-stiflers in the league.

Again he has figured out how to use his ‘loading delay’ to catch up strategically, whether to wall off drives or swoop in for blocks, defensive boards. Okongwu was as productive as a big beyond his height, figuring out how to knife through traffic before turning into the Juggernaut. OO ranked 24th in the league in estimated wins contributed in 2022-23 according to dunksandthrees.com, in between the more senior teammate Clint Capela and former #1 pick Deandre Ayton, at 23 minutes per game.

Okongwu may look like he’s just fitting in at first glance, but he has become one of the most prolific play finishers near the hoop and a mobile brick wall on defense, one of best in the league at guarding the big rim pressure wings like Giannis Antetokounmpo. On top of this, his free throw percentage and deep midrange shooting percentage are more than respectable, at 74% and 45%, respectively.

Okongwu’s path to stardom is by being the player you hate seeing inside the paint who also makes few mistakes. He’s been working on that second part, encouraged by good minutes in the starting unit and a developing rapport with Trae and Dejounte. He’ll need to keep finding that rhythm to reach the next level, but the way he strategically utilizes his sledgehammer strength and keeps adding on to his offense is encouraging that he just might get there. With more minutes to keep gaining comfort and utilize his athletic strengths, Onyeka could look like one of the better starting centers by the time the season has ended.

Jaden McDaniels

Thesis: Star Drifting

Being guarded by Jaden McDaniels is like being sucked into a propeller. Unsuspecting offensive players challenge him, a young player not even 200 pounds who found himself on the opposite side of matchups with LeBron, Zion, Jayson Tatum. But as they do they are met with a flurry of limbs slicing at the ball from all angles, no space available with his ballerina-light footwork. You can overpower him if you can avoid these traps, but it’s harder than it sounds.

McDaniels has quickly showed himself to be one of the elite young players at the meeting point of physical athleticism and processing speed. This is most evident in his screen navigation, where he views every one as a unique challenge, sometimes dodging with one hop behind or in front, or dropping his shoulders with waving-guy-at-car-dealership flexibility. After he gets through, he can backpedal with precision, poking at the ball endlessly until you cough it up under pressure.

The thing is, McDaniels is also skilled, smart and athletic on offense. He does not have to be, consistently, considering his defensive burden and the talents of Anthony Edwards, Karl-Anthony Towns. But the more dribble / pass / shoot options an offense has, the more difficult it is for a defense to collapse onto those stars, with McDaniels certainly surpassing the ‘do we care’ threshold.

My favorite thing about McDaniels on offense is he can catch the groove – he understands how to extend a play for his teammates, and the value of making a quick decision:

His shot is certainly good enough, as well, with true shooting finally reflecting his scoring talent in rising to 61% from 55% his prior two seasons. In particular he was able to raise his midrange volume to 2.6 attempts per 75 possessions, shooting a respectable 45% on them. If opponents have to respect Jaden’s dribble pull-up in addition to his connecting passing to keep an offense greased, he is not just an offense placeholder but a clear positive. The fact that McDaniels has been able to increase his usage while becoming one of the best lockdown perimeter defenders in the league is astounding.

There are flashes of something beyond, too, with his pull-up shooting, a strong 45% from the field off the dribble on 101 attempts. The fluidity of motion is incredibly encouraging:

It does not feel brave at all to predict McDaniels as a future star in the league, as he is making sure he is covering every base to do so. A screen-navigating stocks machine who can blanket a ballhandler. Who can also provide tertiary at worst, secondary at best ballhandling and shotmaking. That is not just a player every team could use to bridge the gap between their stars, but likely a star himself.

Keita Bates-Diop

Thesis: Elevating Stars

Keita Bates-Diop is the most underrated connector in the league, an incredible development story with one of the most unusual statistical trajectories. I mean, just look at the shape of his Estimated Plus-Minus graph:

KBD turned 27 years old during this past season, the first time he has been a positive player in the league. This happens to coincide with his upcoming transition from gap-stopper with a rebuilding team to star-elevator on a contender.

Everything about KBD’s game is clicking at once. Take a look at his three point percentage:

Defensive impact:

Or his assists rising to 2.5 per 75 possessions after never exceeding 1.7 previously.

Keita Bates-Diop, essentially, became one of the best connectors in the league that isn’t a household name. With Devin Vassell missing most of the season due to injury, KBD filled in the gaps admirably.

His strength is his flexibility across the court, the sinew of both a half court offense and defense despite no outlier traits anywhere. At 6’8” with a 7’3” wingspan, KBD is good enough at all skilled things on the court to be respected on offense, or at least he is now. His handling is good enough to get to the rim, finishing at a good rate though not a dynamic dunker; he is capable of hitting open threes, though slow release means volume will never be high; his passing is mostly connecting, keeping the ball moving or dribble into a handoff/kickout.

The thing about these limitations is, Bates-Diop is joining one of the most talented groups of scorers of all time, likely to play significant minutes next to Kevin Durant, Devin Booker and Bradley Beal. With respect to Tre Jones, Keldon Johnson and Malaki Branham (his three most common pairings last season), KBD’s connecting utility is only going to shine more with brighter stars.

Here KBD quickly notes Rudy Gobert helping for KAT in the Wolves’ pick and roll, catching off a stampede to finish at the hoop.

Bates-Diop can hold his own guarding the elite wing threats, very mobile with plenty of length and activity to wall off drives. He is also supreme at holding together a scheme, communicative and highly aware of his positioning. His acceleration is the lacking physical trait, compensated for by rapid-fire steps to stay in front of the ball. While he can extend his stride length when needed, KBD simply is not a highly dynamic athlete, and therefore unlikely to dramatically change a team’s fate on the defensive end. But he can execute what he needs to, making timely back-line rotations or switching 1 through 5 as needed.

If he continues his rate of improvement, in addition to the effect of filling an even more essential role for the Phoenix Suns, Keita Bates-Diop just might look like one of the most improved players in the league. He is one of the savviest movers and does not dwell on difficult decisions. He is a long mobile wing who can shoot a little, pass a little, rebound a little and defend. Put him next to elite shotmakers and athletes and he may look nearly as compelling as they do.

Keegan Murray

Thesis: Strategic Dynamism

Keegan Murray is obsessed with making the right play by his team’s standards, but potentially reducing his star power as a result. With every by-the-book move Murray gives up an opportunity to Just Try Stuff that defines most traditional stars. However, his ability to adapt to whatever the scheme is throwing at him on both sides of the floor might make him a star regardless.

Murray is excellent at following instructions, which entailed simply letting it fly his rookie season. Keegan set the rookie record for three pointers made, beating Donovan Mitchell‘s mark by 19 threes. That is incredibly impressive in its own, speaking to how Keegan understood his role and maximized it. But he is much more than that, and we already saw the glimpses peeking out.

Keegan struggled a bit at times during his rookie season, particularly dealing with the increased pace of the game on the defensive end. But he gained comfort by the end of the season, in particular nailing his helpside rotation to the rim as he often covered the weakside shooter. These are not particularly difficult assignments, but given the high leverage nature of the Kings’ season as the three seed in the West, and how he was playing with majority-starter lineups 75% of the time, impressive nonetheless.

Sometimes, like above, they were quite impressive indeed, showcasing his nose for sniffing out actions that shone more and more throughout the season.

The offense is much more than just the outside shooting, though Keegan’s low usage rate did not allow for much experimentation. However, we know from his college days he can dominate both in transition and in the post, both areas where he struggled as a rookie. Murray’s programmatic style of play makes improvising difficult, and predictability is a death knell for a rookie. But Murray is also a problem-solver, and there remained sparks of off the dribble shotmaking.

The touch is very good, shooting 57% at the rim and 49% on runners while at Iowa shot 70%(!!) at the rim and 42% on runners. Keegan’s transition and post dominance in college came from simple over the shoulder push shots, or leaning jumpers, of course buffered by plenty three point volume.

Keegan may bore his opponent to death but he will do it while getting buckets. His adaptability in year one should not be taken for granted, nor should what his college resume says about his offensive ceiling. If the pace of the game slows even just a little bit for Keegan, he should be an easy Most Improved Player candidate.

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Finding commonalities in this group of stars is almost a trick question, as there are myriad reasons why a player may be ranked lower out of high school than is reflective of their long term abilities. However, there is something counterintuitive in these players not just thriving, but specifically as primaries or high-end secondaries. These players are able to shoulder major burdens on offense through combinations of technical prowess and unique athletic profiles, not a secret formula to anyone but important in its ubiquity across programs.

Searching for mid-major primary/secondary bets in 2023 needs to take into account how more likely high usage mid major players are to transfer up to high major given increased transfer portal and NIL incentives. We have in our sights for the 2024 draft two such prospects who will be leaving the Summit League and Conference USA to join the ACC and WCC (technically dubbed mid major still, but with hardly a competition gap to the ACC).

Andrew Rohde has not yet turned 20 and will be transferring to the University of Virginia after helping to lead St. Thomas to a top 200 finish in only its second ever Division I season. The rising sophomore will form a lethal backcourt with Reece Beekman.

Aly Khalifa is older, 21 and finishing his second playing season with the Charlotte 49ers after redshirting there. He will be transferring to Brigham Young University to play center next to Fousseyni Traore.

Both of these players have the primary stuff, it’s just a matter of the game forming around them and refining their athletic tools to unleash the special. Here’s how they do it, and what could get in their way.

Andrew Rohde – Primary Stuff

Rohde is an escape artist with elite touch, shifting with his 6’6’’ frame from attacking to pulling up or kicking out in an instant. Aesthetically, he checks the boxes, a whirlwind of instantaneous playmaking when he’s on, always hunting for ways to heat up.

Checking the boxes for a primary prospect works a little differently. Rather than the toolsy route, these technicians nurture a fluid creativity balanced against constant opportunism. Essentially, primaries need access to a nexus point where they can go from advantage created to advantage capitalized. They need to switch from creating the seam to filling it without the opponent adjusting. The rarity is in the process of climbing that ladder.

To be more literal, primaries have to both get by their opponent and have the skill to make the bucket or right pass, and awareness to know the difference. But most of all, they need to be comfortable repeating their particular brand of advantage over and over. That’s why it has to look easy.

For Rohde, it does not always look easy, at least not yet. But we see forming the outline of that nexus, and when it hits, it’s not just good but great.

The first way Rohde creates advantages is his shiftiness. The first step is good if not great for 6’6” height, and last step can flail with poor planting. We should mention, finally, that Andrew Rohde is very skinny. Listed at 160 pounds, Will Barton could likely outlift the former Tommy, current Hoo. But he is vigilant nonetheless pursuing routes to shake his opponent, and willing to mask his drive against opponents’ cadence before changing the pattern entirely, whether in iso or using screens. When he commits to a move, it typically works.

This ability is also supported by a good core stance in drives, the kind that gives him All-Star upside (yes, you read that right). Despite his slight build, Rohde squares his body as if he wasn’t. He attacks with sharp angles into the body of his opponent, often followed by fadeaways in the paint. He shot 41% on midrange jumpers with only 8% assisted, a number that showcases his physicality sprung out of will and technique.

His strong technique also allows Rohde to shoot with ease from distance. Skinnier guards often struggle with movement shooting with even a smidge of inefficiency in their form, but Rohde can fire from NBA range off of movement without a second’s hesitation. This higher difficulty of shot and, well, the fact that he could indeed benefit from more core strength, led to inconsistent results. But Rohde seemed to figure it out as his endurance grew, shooting 41% from deep from mid-January to end of season. The touch is very good, shooting 62% at the rim with only 19% of makes assisted as well as 81% from the free throw line.

Finally, Rohde is a creative passer, if not a perfect one. His ideas are good, particularly aware of how his drive gravity creates lanes for others. Often he can be seen predicting which help defender will pinch in, kicking to a shooter just as the opponent commits. The limitation here is again lack of strength, as Rohde may plant his feet fuzzily which leads to passing inaccuracy. As the strength improves, expect the assist numbers to as well.

Rohde will be particularly devastating running pick and roll. His sense of timing is sublime, again urged by his urgency, a player you can count on to sniff out an opponent’s weak point. The vision lacks a bit here and there, as he may miss unexpectedly open opponents in favor of predetermined reads, but overall excellent for his age.

The biggest question with primary bets is not just can their defense hold up, but can it in a way that harvests energy for their offensive usage. Rohde, to his credit, is interested in more than that, constantly seeking out ways to strip or tip the ball away from unsuspecting opponents. You almost forget he is closer to 150 than 200 pounds based on his activity, though reminded when he comes head to head with a stronger opponent in the interior.

My biggest confidence in Rohde’s physicality holding up as intensity grows is due to his approach to the game. As a freshman carrying 28% usage, it would be understandable if he caught his breath on the defensive end. Rather, Rohde sported a 3% steal rate, with no other freshman matching that combination of thresholds (Duke’s Kyle Filipowski and Syracuse’s Judah Mintz were the closest). His 11% defensive rebound rate is respectable, speaking to his sense of timing. He tries hard when screened, setting himself up well by taking the same sharp angles that define his driving game on offense.

Aly Khalifa – Primary Stuff

Moving from guard to center, the aesthetics remain elite with the 6’11’’ Khalifa. Perhaps the best passer in all of college basketball, Aly also shot 38% on 126 threes. He is big skill personified, with lack of buzz coming from older age at 21 and also his history of being above optimal playing weight.

A major prospect from a young age, Aly Khalifa was part of Egypt’s U-17 squad and trained with the NBA Academy, playing next to Josh Giddey, Dyson Daniels, Bennedict Mathurin, Olivier Maxence-Prosper and others on the prestigious team selected to compete against top European youth talent (they won the tournament, with Khalifa as a significant contributor). Never considered mobile, Khalifa peaked in weight at a listed 255 pounds at Charlotte, clearly not the best version of his playing self as a freshman post hia redshirt season. He slimmed down some for his second playing season, still not in ideal shape but now dominant on the court regardless.

Uncertainty can be your friend in basketball. Specifically, it can be beneficial to have access to a wide range of outcomes that others don’t, and sometimes it requires leaning into the uncertainty to benefit. While he is still figuring out his optimal basketball build, Aly is already one of the best players in college basketball. Should he continue to advance his physical regimen, it’s difficult to say what the upside is, and why, like Rohde, an All-Star level offensive game is not entirely off the table (yes, you also read that right).

Returning to our analysis of his game and specifically as a potential primary, Aly Khalifa creates space simply by being on the money with his decision-making and advanced with his skills. The passing is the most obvious, with a 22% assist rate, 1.7 assist-to-turnover ratio.

I have confidence saying Khalifa is the best at hitting cutters in the entire NCAA, and perhaps its best overall passer since Sharife Cooper. His passing ability is mediated by lack of dribble drive ability, but Aly hardly needs to manipulate his college opponents considering his passing accuracy, timing and general decision-making.

But Khalifa has a developed scoring repertoire, too. He shot 48 for 126 (38%) from three, 24 for 61 (39%) from midrange, 88 for 125 at the rim (70%) and 32 for 43 (74%) from the line, all indicators of a very good shooter, particularly for his height. Those numbers pop even more considering over half of his rim makes and over 90% of his midrange field goals were self-created, meaning a high degree of difficulty to showcase his touch.

Particularly impressive is his technique, executing flawless no-load threes (where he does not need to bring the ball down below his shoulders) and blind hook shots over his head. With only one dunk on the season despite being 6’11’’, Khalifa had to use every ounce of touch and craftiness to get his points.

His scoring consistency could have been better, as he often settled outside the paint as the team’s best table setter, preferring to stretch the offense with his shooting gravity where he can find streaming cutters. He also has an allergy to drawing fouls, which we’ll get to later. But as far as play finishing technique, Khalifa is clearly studied. No better game showcased this than against Western Kentucky, matched up with the 7’5’’ shotblocking fiend Jamarion Sharpe. Khalifa got up a total 14 attempts from three, connecting on six of them, particularly heating up down the stretch. He showed not just clean catch and shoot ability, but also hit off of some movement or awkward angles, always able to stabilize with his supreme balance and technique.

Essential to both the scoring and passing working though, is Khalifa’s exceptional screening. Here I’ll leave you with one clip to exemplify how he approaches screening. Aly takes out first his man, locking him up momentarily and also misleading his intention. Immediately after, Khalifa instead switches to screening the ball handler’s man, now slowing both parts of the pick and roll to allow his teammate to waltz to the hoop. Khalifa consistently uses his full shoulder when setting screens without fouling, a true art in itself.

Khalifa’s strengths point to his dedication to his craft, but also compensatory necessities to overcome his athletic deficiencies. Reading the above strengths paints a Jokic-esque picture, but Khalifa, while a good handler for his size, does not have the preternatural probing ability off the bounce of his spiritual protégé. Much like Rohde he struggles to draw fouls, but the tools are there to potentially do that as well.

Khalifa’s defense has a better bedrock for stability right now, simply by virtue of Aly being the size he is. He moves well when already moving, but would be around worst in the NBA for abruptly changing direction or accelerating. He can buy good will and keep a scheme together, though, through his above average activity and awareness.

Are They Athletic Enough?

I have little doubt buying the skillsets of both Rohde and Khalifa at face value, convincing in their offensive firepower as prospects. But to even approach primary or secondary usage you need to be able to enforce your will to set up what you want when you want, or at least be ready to take advantage of what the defense allows.

Between them they totaled 11 dunks on the season, and 10 of those were by the guard, Andrew Rohde. Rohde has the length and shiftiness to get rim opportunities, selective but still ready to take advantage. Rohde, in fact, plays with a good bit of physicality considering his low BMI. The free throw rate is not high, but it is not through lack of trying, and with Rohde’s ability to create space with change of direction, not as necessary to perform at a high level.

Rohde needs to add weight, but his strong sense of technique points to a player ready to maximize whatever is added. He has a decently wide frame, although more sharp than rounded shoulders means he will more often be a cut-into-opponent player than bullying with strength. He already has the core strength to shoot from distance, and that additional weight will only help to stabilize the shot and perhaps add consistency.

The key area for Rohde is the paint. He is studied from the school of Jalen Brunson, with a proclivity for attempting to stop abruptly and pivot once two feet in the lane. Despite the sound strategy, this is probably the weakest current part of his skillset, as his lack of core strength means difficulty planting his feet to pivot cleanly. This led to unnecessary turnovers, but also occasional sloppy passing as he tries to regain his footing.

I’m most optimistic about Rohde as an athlete due to his screen navigation. Understanding his own limitations and strengths, Rohde anticipates screens by ducking sharply to the side, with good acceleration to catch up to his man. That understanding shows a player highly aware of how to weaponize what he has, encouraging that he will figure out how to incorporate weight gains in a similar manner.

Aly Khalifa, meanwhile, comes from the other end of the spectrum, playing above optimal weight but on the right trajectory from his freshman season. We have tape of him playing closer to his ideal weight with FIBA and NBA Academy, but still have yet to see his best physique.

On the offensive end, it is difficult to say how much athletic gains will help Khalifa’s odds as an initiator/playmaker. He has learned to succeed while relatively stationary with the ball, ultra-intentional with his decisions. The biggest item he currently lacks is ability to generate quick paint touches, with complete lack of acceleration nor the meandering dribble of a Jokic. That outcome – being so deft with your handle to protect it from much shorter defenders swiping – is unrealistic for anyone 6’11’’.

But the main item that can improve is his interior foul drawing. The pieces seem to be in place here: Khalifa is adept when he decides to post with intention of scoring, bumping shoulders right when his defender is off balance. However his inability to dunk with ease (only 1 the entire season) means he prefers to release contested hooks rather than build his repertoire out of physicality. Khalifa has the craftiness of a grifter, but that has been far from his modus operandi for bucket-getting thus far.

Should he add a modicum of burst, Aly might be able to take advantage of small space advantages better than he does now. But his foundation of scoring is so polished in favor of avoiding these confrontations as a trade-off. Here again we remind that his touch indicators are quite strong, shooting 70% at the rim despite only a single dunk.

The Impact of a Timely Transfer

Finally, both players will be receiving a boost from joining larger programs, both on an off the court. On the court, both players get better front/backcourt mates, with Khalifa likely to start next to the screen and dive big, more mobile Fousseyni Traore. At UVA, Rohde should start next to Reece Beekman, one of the best defenders in college basketball who has improved mightily as a table setter. Both duos are synergistic by type, with Traore and Beekman more physical and mobile than their new offensively talented teammates.

The team playing styles are encouraging as well. BYU loves to have their bigs operate outside the paint, making decisions; UVA keeps things simple for their guards, likely to be fully encouraging of Rohde to maximize his strengths (expect a ton of threes). But not having to worry about the tougher defensive assignments with more defensive-minded teammates should make the leap in competition more than tolerable.

Off the court, the athletic department budgets balloon from comparable measures with these prospects’ incumbent schools. Going from Charlotte to BYU means about double the program budget surrounding Khalifa, while Rohde gets a much more dramatic 20x increase from the newly D1 St. Thomas to the former champion University of Virginia. There is not a 1:1 correlation in athletic gains by university budget, but for players needing more attention to physical development, it can only help, and perhaps drastically.

Conclusion

Looking at our player diagrams (dark gray = current trajectory, light gray = potential), we see the skillsets of likely NBA role players with All-Star potential on offense and starter ceilings on defense. That might be a tough pill to swallow for players you may not have known about before starting this article. But both have impressive pre-NCAA pedigrees – Khalifa with FIBA and NBA Academy, Rohde as ultra-productive HS player and good at EYBL – and shown rare combinations of production, playmaking and shotmaking. And we have not seen either’s optimal physique, with gains available for their driving and foul-drawing. Both are already quite coordinated; additional core strength could make them both three point and midrange shooting monsters, potentially capable of large offensive burdens at any level.

When aesthetics meets production, I pay attention. That’s first and foremost what we have here, as both players simply look the part when they’re launching threes or finding teammates at the perfect time. But the accumulation of tools is convincing as well, and neither of these two is wired to be done. Look for an entire new bag of tricks from both this coming season.

The post Becoming Primary: Aly Khalifa and Andrew Rohde appeared first on Swish Theory.

I’ll also touch on my misses from last year, and how I hope to correct for shortcomings next cycle. Let’s waste no more time and dig in.

2023 Values

This section covers the players I ranked highest relative to the actual draft results, utilizing Kevin Pelton’s draft selection value table. Is there a common theme, am I missing or onto something?

Drafting with One Eye Closed

GG Jackson (my #12, drafted #45), Trayce Jackson-Davis (my #26, drafted #57), Leonard Miller (my #9, drafted #33), Jalen Slawson (my #28, drafted #54)

My biggest difference this cycle from last was trying to have a more holistic approach to a player’s own role curve. That is to say, comfort with a role (particularly in the NCAA) is not automatic, unlikely chosen by a player and often different than presented in recruiting efforts. College teams need players to win, development systems need player to develop, players just want to be selected as high as they can while balancing the goals of stakeholders around them. It can be messy, and often is.

The group I’m discussing here did not all have sub-optimal roles, but perhaps ones that masked their appeal as prospects, or distorted viewpoints of how they might contribute.

My single greatest difference to actual draft results was one Gregory Jackson the Second. At #12 on my board, Jackson was not selected until the second round by the Memphis Grizzlies. While rumors abound of immaturity from GG during team workouts, I’m less bothered given the substantial talent, obvious at his young age.

The most significant obstacle to draft analysis, in my view (beyond not knowing ball) is to make a one-to-one connection between items you notice and items of significance. Watching GG, it is not difficult to spot places where he could do better. Passing is the most obvious, often tunnel-visioned in his scoring approach, amplified at South Carolina by few other legitimate options but still clearly present in Summer League play as well. But if one were to ding Jackson for each and every missed pass, one might come away with a more negative view than is accurate in consideration of his star power, and that’s really what we’re here for.

It is more damaging to not take major swings than it is to have the occasional bust. If a player busts, his on-court impact simply goes to zero – there is a natural downside limit in that you’re not forced to give a player playing time, nor does it necessarily hurt your odds of acquiring more talent. But if he hits, and I mean truly hits, as in worth a max contract, that changes your franchise’s profile over a decade or more. This asymmetry runs up against basic human intuition: risk aversion means we are naturally suited to play it safe. But for that exact reason can be the source of extreme value in the NBA draft.

GG was third in usage of all freshmen as the youngest player in all of college basketball. He never looked overwhelmed athletically, consistently hitting the boards (17% defensive rebound rate) while using up a mega amount of iso (100), PNR (107) and spot up (143) possessions. Simply put, senior year HS aged players are not built like GG, not often. While a scout may see a sea of red marking up his execution on complex plays, he is able to put himself in those scenarios over and over with the flexible tank that is his hulking 6’9’’, 215 pound frame.

GG has a combination of traits I view highly in combination: when he has his nose in a play, he is determined to finish it (dawg factor); a frame to play power forward or small-ball center; the flexibility to get low into drives; an elite second jump; good shooting mechanics. Those are the traits of a scoring engine – as I put it in my scouting report of Jackson early in the season, “GG wants to be your team’s leading scorer,” and he has the mold for it. There are simply not many people in the world who have that combination of traits at an NBA level, and it takes two seconds watching GG move in Summer League to see how easily he belongs, physically.

Moving on to the rest of the group, the theme remains of swinging into uncertainty, where you have tangible evidence of NBA player-ness. By that last term I mean a collection of base skills that would be surprising to find in a non-NBA player. Let’s go through them quickly.

• Trayce Jackson-Davis: production, production and production; second jump; balance; sparks of creativity and touch at size
• Leonard Miller: dawg factor; production at age and competition; elite flexibility; sparks of creativity and touch at size
• Jalen Slawson: production and athletic versatility; team success; sparks of creativity and touch at size

The common trait for these remaining three is having some passing and some shooting touch but also defensive creativity, capable of picking up unexpected assists, steals or blocks in ways that took their opponents by surprise. Being two steps ahead of processing at lower levels, or even just hanging in at a higher level (in Miller’s case) is a good sign of being able to pick up NBA schemes, and the size of all three makes it easier to get the reps to showcase that. The flashes of touch and passing are simply compounding benefits as different areas of value on the court and expanding number of schemes in which they fit.

All four of the players here have role questions. “Can GG play off-ball?” (Summer League answer: yes); “Does Lenny fit cleanly into the 3, 4 or 5?” (Summer League answer: yes); “Can Trayce Jackson-Davis protect the rim as a 5?” (tbd); “Can Jalen Slawson shoot well enough to be a 3?” (tbd). But I also think these questions oversimplify what is a chaotic process in scouting. As Avinash said in his stellar Leonard Miller piece, “since when can we effectively project roles to begin with?”

That is not to say we shouldn’t try to project role, but we certainly shouldn’t let confusion in the exercise stop us from ranking a prospect highly.

I call this section “Drafting with One Eye Closed” as drafting is foremost an act of imagination, but that includes some willful optimism at times. The balance of cost relative to benefit of trying to make an unusual player work is lopsided, assuming the talent is indeed there. We draft players to try to alter the path of franchises, and the only way to do that is to try where others do not. Role occlusion, whether established upperclassmen or molds-of-clay youngsters, can be an opportunity masked by the same risk that drives people away.

To put the concept in more human terms, the game of basketball evolves in unexpected ways, and you need unexpected players to fit that evolving vision. The talent and effort side is the player’s job; fitting them onto the basketball court is the role of those around them.

Make Something Happen

Nick Smith Jr. (my #13, drafted #27), Amari Bailey (my #19, drafted #41), Sidy Cissoko (my #25, drafted #44)

Decision-making can be the most maddening NBA skill to dissect, making it all the more important in our evaluation of guards specifically. Guards typically survive on being nimbler, better handlers, shooters than their taller brethren, but this also means they have to make a greater number of decisions with or near the ball. If their decision-making is sound, they will make the product better, scheme running smoothly each time; if poor, the whole system can collapse. Repeat the process not once or a few times but dozens of times per game, thousands over a season. Despite having only middling 17% usage (7^th on his own team), Kyle Lowry still touched the ball over a thousand times in the 2023 playoffs, as an example. Whether or not a guard is a true lead initiator, they are going to be making countless decisions for your team.

Nick Smith Jr., Amari Bailey and Sidy Cissoko all make decisions in vastly different ways, which mixes differently for each of them with their differentiated skillsets. Sidy Cissoko is tall and strong for a guard but a poor shooter, Nick Smith Jr. is shorter and very skinny but a great shooter, Amari Bailey falls in between for all three traits.

Their playing cadences are vastly different, with NSJ being an elixir, playing like white blood cells seeking out weaknesses; Sidy is a maniac, unpredictable-squared; Amari Bailey is consistent in effort first and last. All are deviants from the expected in their own ways: given Nick Smith’s elite touch and handle creativity, one would expect him to be a pure hooper. Sidy one could easily cast aside as an unreliable project. Amari’s consistency of effort could prevent an analyst from noticing the flairs of upside.

My source of comfort in ranking them highly varies for each of them, as well. But it is consistent in one thing: the route-making of offensive schemes has always been a jagged line rather than a straight one. The ideal basketball play is a run to the basket and dunk, or run to the three point line and swish. But with the constancy of movement and ten athletes making decisions simultaneously, the way forward is rarely straight through.

This section is a dedication to the basketball weirdos, or irregularities in subtle ways. Amari Bailey may seem like the outlier in his inclusion, as Sidy and NSJ’s funkiness jump off the page. But Amari covers a ridiculous amount of ground as an athlete, both laterally and vertically, the type of athlete which would thrive as a cornerback or an outfielder or tennis player or…really anything. But Bailey plays subtly, workmanlike to the point of nearly hiding this fact. One is used to athletes of Bailey’s versatility taking up usage wherever they can, testing the limits of the dynamic fun that it must be to have those tools at one’s disposal. But Bailey, for whatever reason, does not seem to care about all of that, or else finds such enjoyment from applying them, not bluntly nor florid, but simply so. That aspect is maybe the easiest to look over: someone simply doing their job for its own sake. Especially in a freshman one-and-done, highly touted from a celebrity program. Don’t miss it with Amari.

Role Reducers: Priority UDFAs

Craig Porter Jr. (my #33), Adama Sanogo (#38), Terquavion Smith (#36), Justyn Mutts (#42), Ricky Council IV (#43), Taevion Kinsey (#45), D’Moi Hodge (#46)

Here we have a group of undrafted players I had ranked in my top 50. I’m not sure if there’s a common thread here beyond role players who I believe have a shot of being starters, even if miniscule.

All have their quick pitches as NBA role players: Porter Jr. makes sense as a defensive play-maker and creative passer next to a high usage guard. Sanogo if a team wants to run a five-out scheme on either end with a hybrid big. Terq is the obvious, nuclear pull-up shooting threat. Mutts is one of the best passing big wings in the country. Council had perhaps the best slashing tools in college hoops. Kinsey may be the most unusual, a stellar athlete ball custodian type with funky shot. D’Moi Hodge the cleanest role fit, and the most surprising undrafted for that reason as a steals & threes maven.

I mention the concept of “false ceiling” prospects, a term I coined to mean prospect commonly seen as low ceiling but with tougher-to-see avenues to outperform those expectations. I believe this entire group qualifies, let’s run through the list again. Porter Jr. does not make sense as a shotblocker, at 6’2’’ putting up a 5% block rate (one of every 20 opponent two pointers) while only fouling 2.3 times per 40(!!!). Sanogo has rare touch, shooting 77% at the rim on gigantic volume and above average everywhere else. Terq has become underrated as a passer, improving his A:TO from 1.2 to 1.9 and assist rate from 14% to 23%, all while shooting 14 threes per 100 possessions. Mutts is a rare breed, a strength-based wing with soft passing touch, perfect for motion-based, precise systems. Council’s athleticism shines in transition where he can improvise to the hoop for an acrobatic finish, at 1.2ppp on 114 transition attempts. Kinsey played in a lower conference, but that may mask his NBA athleticism, dunking over 200 times across his five college seasons. Hodge is underrated in his aggressiveness, with over 100 rim attempts finished at a 72% rate this past season.

The entire group are sophomores or older and non-premium selections as UDFAs, as it is safe to say you won’t build your team around this group. But if I were to bet on anyone undrafted ending up a useable starter at some point in their careers, it would be from this crew. The avenue to that happening has been laid out roughly in their previous spots, but amplified by further conforming to a reduced role and playing with greater talent around them.

Lessons of the Past

The 2022 draft cycle I spent obsessed with archetypes, attempting to break down the roles on the court into four: 1. Rim Protectors, 2. Connectors, 3. Shotmakers and 4. Engines. As I felt already by the time that draft day arrived, this approach had clear shortcomings. Prospects are not fully formed into their archetypes yet, and flashes of potential can be more important than fully fleshed out skills.

My three biggest misses all came from this too narrow of a sorting process. For Walker Kessler, I zoomed in too far on his inconsistent rim protection footwork technique, missing how he was blocking a gargantuan quantity of shots despite it due to advanced hand-eye coordination, size and effort. He also was able to quiet my mobility concerns by slimming down some, bringing us to another point of analysis: at the ages of prospects, they are still getting used to their athletic bodies.

Jalen Williams is another illustration of this, showcasing a major athletic leap from Santa Clara to the pros. The tape transformed almost overnight, as before when his closeouts lagged and he may have settled as a table-setter, now he looks a full power primary. The signal here was the Combine scrimmages, where J-Dub adapted to a more off-ball slashing role the second he hit the floor, using his plus wingspan to dunk in traffic with ease. The archetypes system over-fit for his Santa Clara role, not adaptive enough to appreciate his flashes of elite versatility.

Finally, a player I was too high on: Johnny Davis. At the risk of reacting too early, Johnny appears at the nexus of both of these points as well. From an archetype approach, JD is interesting. He was super physical in college, capable of some dribbling, passing, shooting, if not dominant anywhere. But he looked like he could carry a large load, and had enough clips of looking like a dynamic athlete, all the while fighting hard on the defensive end. The script has completely flipped between him and J-Dub, as Davis has been losing on the margins at the first line and without tools to salvage missteps. Where before he looked like a potential to hit in multiple archetypes, now he looks more like a mediocre prospect for each. The difference in athletic and skill profile from NCAA to NBA makes previous roles potentially untenable while also opening up new avenues for what were only flashes before.

Lessons for the Future

My goal this past cycle was to take a more holistic approach to a player’s basketball narrative. Where are they in their own cycle? A draft cycle involves only 6-8 months of new tape to indicate what a player might be for an entire career, and we need to imbue that with the appropriate lack of certainty. Imagination is the name of the game for draft work, something I’ve reminded myself constantly this past year, and helped me to be more comfortable with the one-eye-closed upside swings. Similarly, I have been keener to extrapolate those flashes out, as a player’s developmental trajectory can be as dynamic as their playing style.

The one item that remains elusive to me is projecting athletic profiles to the future. Already in Summer League I see a potential miss in Keyonte George, adapting quickly to weight loss with a more explosive playing style than we saw at Baylor or IMG. Athletic projection, again, a source of my miss on all of Kessler, J-Dub and (in the other direction) Johnny Davis, requires a technical level of biomechanical knowledge I have not attained. We have in our sights a theme for the 2024 cycle: how does the body develop amid intense athletic demands, and how can you tell who can incorporate these changes better than others? Stay tuned.

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