We will cover four aspects of athletic display in basketball: offensive rim dominance, offensive midrange dominance, offensive perimeter dominance and defensive dominance. Each of our four examples demonstrate their “flex” in vastly different ways, but to the same result: getting or preventing buckets in a way that will persist as competition rises dramatically.

We’ll define the term athletic dominance as we go.

Rim Dominance: Jonathan Mogbo, San Francisco

Rims are not safe around Jonathan Mogbo. The guard-turned-big is only third in the NCAA to Zach Edey and Ryan Kalkbrenner in dunks, despite being seven and four inches shorter, respectively. Mid-major teams have elite athletes, too.

The number one most important tool for Mogbo is his catch radius. Catch radius defines how big your target is as a roller, and is constructed of several factors: max and standing verticals, vertical load time, wingspan, hand size. Mogbo scores highly on all of these. But catch radius is also about timing, and being physically able to change your location at a moment’s notice. That is a cognitive aspect, namely one’s reaction time, but a physical one too.

Can you change your short strides into long ones, and vice-versa? Mogbo can. He is capable of skying a foot or more above the rim to crash upon the rim. But he can also sneak in quicker oops, reminiscent of a middle hitter in volleyball. He can catch bad passes with his range but also very good ones with precision and timing.

A framework around – “outflexing” or “physical dominance” – whatever term you prefer, lies in how your body relates to others. Namely, how your body can physically withstand abrupt change but also resist a counterforce. Mogbo, in his true versatile fashion, is capable of both. Despite his bulky, wide-shouldered frame, Mogbo is capable of getting low to the ground and into an opponent’s body. Then, uprighting himself with great balance to sling a pass or attack the rim.

With alley oops he’s skyrocketing himself upward, but getting low-to-high near the basket is a major advantage, too.

Finally, the withstanding force. Mogbo has quick feet, which, again, are capable of chopping in an instant. This combined with his wide frame and great balance mean he is difficult to blow by, especially good at absorbing drives, hitting a roller or boxing out.

Essentially, Mogbo is capable of surpassing final walls of defense with his catch radius and sneaking through with his timing. His agility, foot speed and balance allow him to be specific in his movements; his strength allows him to withstand drives while driving himself into an opponent’s chest. Despite being only 6’9”, Mogbo is the premiere vertical threat in his class (with respect to Edey and Holmes) by blending in all these aspects.

Midrange Dominance: Isaiah Collier, USC

Just, and likely more important, than shooting a high percentage in the midrange is the ability to get there in the first place. Often the first item young ballhandlers struggle with at Summer League or the pre-season is getting past that first line of defense. As guards rise through competition levels, the ground coverage and ground resistance capabilities of their median point of attack defender rise exponentially.

Enter Isaiah Collier.

If Zay wanted to, he could have a picnic, take a nap, read a book in the paint. He is as comfortable breaking down a first line of defense as anyone in college basketball. Not built like a freshman, Collier can withstand a hard hand-check once, twice, however many times is needed to either power his way with a drive or power his way with a post up.

No size of defender is capable of withstanding Collier’s force, routinely pushing bigs backwards into the paint with choppy but strong strides. Because of this, no door is truly closed for Collier.

We see again the importance of being able to get low in an instant before popping back up at will. Collier is capable of doing this with short, quick steps to better position his heavy frame, with rare lower body stability to withstand the shifting of weight.

Collier weaponizes his paint touches well, particularly improving in efficiency as the season went on. He has the second best two point shooting percentage of any high major freshman with 200+ two point attempts. In fact, of all the players since 2008 who are categorized as Scoring Guards in the barttorvik.com database, Collier shoots the best on twos. He is also sixth in assist percentage. These inside the arc numbers combined with his passing is similar, at least statistically, to De’Aaron Fox and D’Angelo Russell’s NCAA profiles.

Collier is highly creative, which combines perfectly with his paint pressure. He is capable of getting to the “flex” spots of the floor that most bend the defense, and then is inventive in finding the best thing to do with the ball. When he uses his burst directly into a high speed pass, it may lead to turnovers here and there but the reward is often wide open layups.

This creativity is a big reason why Collier can get to finishing angles inside the arc, in spite of being a limited vertical athlete.

He can simply burst by his opponent, back him down, take elongated strides, create space with an arm bar, by backpedaling, or spinning into his body, or a hip check.

When he uses his acceleration in combination with appropriate application of strength, Collier is nearly impossible to contain. That’s what we’re looking for in midrange dominance, and easy bets say Collier will do just fine getting into his strength areas at the NBA level, too.

Perimeter Dominance: Rob Dillingham, Kentucky

Rob Dillingham has taken 128 threes and made 45% of them. He has taken 98 deep twos and made 44% of them. But it’s not the efficiency that stands out, but rather how Dillingham is getting his looks. It looks like he is playing on ice skates.

Dillingham’s movement ability is impressive. Not just bursty, not just quick, but also agile, nimble, shifty. When most players would be disoriented playing with such pace and skittishness, these traits are automatic for the Kentucky freshman. With space to operate, Dillingham is the best in class at hunting for perimeter openings.

His athleticism permits him to create horizontal space: with a wide cross or tween, he can shift his weight seamlessly to cover more distance than the opponent expects out of the listed 6’3” Dillingham. His body swings violently back and forth, as Rob utilizes his true superpower: his balance.

He uses this balance (in combination, again with a tight handle) to toy with opponents, exemplifying the hunting part of out-flexing.

His athleticism also allows him to create negative space: decelerating at full speed, Dillingham is able to go from low to the ground to upright in an instant. Yet again, the balance. Not just to be able to stop on a dime, but to then *reload* for your shot, requires moving in three distinct directions (sprint forward -> decelerate to a halt -> leap forward into a shot) in a second.

The important part of Dillingham’s game is not just that he has the arsenal, but is clever in deploying it. That functionality appears automatic as he predicts where his opponent will stick their top foot, already attacking as they do.

I have harped on the importance of changing your body shape from low to high, small to big and vice-versa, but Dillingham adds dimensionality to that. When he’s in his perimeter playground, Dillingham can change from slow to fast, low to high, high to low, left to right, front to back, accelerating fast, decelerating on a dime, all of that. While closer to the basket dominance requires more power, Dillingham is both sleek and stable in hunting perimeter openings.

One additional, significant benefit to that comes in his foul-drawing. While his free throw rate is still low for a given prospect, in consideration of his predilection for distance shooting and small stature, even a 0.25 free throw rate is enough to provide another dimension of value. The aesthetics stand out again, as does the method. When Dillingham attacks, he attacks. Weaponizing his deceleration but also shiftiness in general, Dillingham is able to get into a bigger opponent’s body with ease. The physical toll is likely a lot to manage over a full NBA season, but it is an important part of the arsenal. His ability to seek out physicality keeps defenders honest as they try to blanket his perimeter space.

Defensive Dominance: Ryan Dunn, UVA

Take everything we’ve learned about offensive dominance. How sleek while bursty movement creates force. Now, try to negate it – all of it – in a single player. That player looks like Ryan Dunn.

The first important quality is stickiness. How much can you stay glued to the hip of a perimeter creator without fouling? Opponents shoot a remarkably low 22% from two on drives when guarded by Ryan Dunn. He suffocates with long strides, chopping feet to then react in an instant, sliding in lockstep with the offensive player.

It’s partially his high feel overlapping here, as his instantaneous reaction speed allows him to gamble in ways that still keep him in the play. It would be bad technique, but Dunn recovers better than anyone. His 10.6% block rate, despite being only 6’8”, speaks for itself.

His wingspan also helps to close gaps quickly. He springs into action with his 7’1” length which matches well with his burst and second jump speed. The court shrinks for Dunn, where he is a beat away from making his presence felt at any given point. This is the ideal for a defensive forward: blocking off space with length; covering space with speed.

He can withstand force, too. His lower body maintains its springiness while also being extremely durable, a rare combination. Dunn was built to prevent buckets all over the court.

On any given possession, UVA trusts Dunn to play like an aggressive strong safety, hedging, icing, blitzing, trapping, monitoring whatever gaps. Dunn has done it all as he patrols the court. Some may saw this is a negative – NBA players shouldn’t gamble with abandon like this. But that is what Dunn has been asked to do, and he performs it magnificently. We know what happens when you ramp up his activity, and it’s only good things. Despite being top 5 in the NCAA in block rate and top 50 in steal rate, Dunn only fouls three times every forty minutes. In fact, no other high major player in the barttorvik.com database has improved upon his combination of steals, blocks and foul rate, with only Nerlens Noel coming close.

Putting it all together, Dunn stops rim dominance with his length, quick first/second/third leaps and his ability to withstand force. He cuts off drives preventing access to the midrange, while also blocking off passing lanes that would create easy looks. On the perimeter he is able to stick with guards with timely sliding. His long lower legs propel him back and forth while also staying on balance after dramatic movements over a distance. He is nearly the perfect defensive wing, capable of stopping actions from any angle. The offense may be nearly nonexistent, but there are few better defensive prospects than Ryan Dunn.

The post How Prospects Outflex Their Opponent appeared first on Swish Theory.

Because the magic is elusive, difficult to explain, let’s break it down clip by clip. Featuring the highest feel players in the 2024 NBA draft class:

Nikola Topic

Moniker: Mass manipulator

Nikola Topic comes out as the top feel prospect in the 2024 draft class for one major reason: he is the only one capable of freezing an entire defense at once. Topic does this in a couple of ways, but mostly built off of his drive threat (he takes 7 rim attempts per game, and finishes at a 68% clip). No one is better at knowing when to attack a gap than Nikola, monitoring multiple opponents at once.

Here he attacks right as the opponent is switching onto him, but also right at the moment his big is clearing out the opposing rim protector under the basket. His execution is flawless: instead of attacking immediately he eats up space waiting for the confusion of the switch. He then sells his left hard before crossing and accelerating with his right. Then a hallmark of Topic’s drives: he can pick the ball up early and still confuse a rim protector with his stride lengths and deception. This time cradling with his right to protect from the defender on that side, slowing his gather to leap just past the lone big but not drifting too far left.

Balance, speed and coordination are all needed to pull off moves like this, but more than that it requires a feel of the defense. Topic not just knows how to get past one defender, but how to run defenders into each other.

Topic’s drive threat enhances his passing and vice-versa, and how he maintains a stellar 2.2 assist to turnover ratio. He is adamant in pushing the ball ahead, with a keen understanding of where the soft spots of the defense are. Above, bursting into transition and hitting Nikola Djurisic filling the lane. Then, immediately after, hunting a rebound, kicking out to a shooter while in mid-air. In both instances Topic is ahead of the game, getting an edge on his opponents with his awareness in spite of lagging them by multiple years in age.

This pass might not catch your eye at first, but exhibits Topic’s flexibility of mind. Realizing he has committed to passing to a blocked path, Topic recovers mid-pass, twisting his hand to instead dump the ball off to the big waiting nearby for the assist. That instantaneous adaptability is rare, even if making up for his own mistake.

Here, Topic reads a backdoor flawlessly, executing an off-hand scoop laser. While seemingly designed, it still requires patience and timing. Topic is a true court general for a professional team, and a big part of that is teammates trusting you to make a hairline pass.

Topic knows how to run pick and rolls, but a lot of people know how to do that. What makes him unique is his ability to layer in multiple responsibilities at once, aware of his teammates, while also slicing apart a defense with his drives. To stagger footwork and dribble moves when an opponent is most off-balance is an ultra-valuable trait not maintained by many teenagers. To do that while also hitting whichever of your four teammates is most open is genius.

Reed Sheppard

Moniker: Muck in the gears

Sheppard was featured among our most productive prospects, but shines even more with his feel for the game. Reed is more subtle with his swindling of unsuspecting opponents. At 6’2”, Sheppard has good not great athletic tools, but he weaponizes them to maximum effect.

A major way Sheppard makes life difficult for his opponents is his spatial awareness.

A hallmark of Sheppard’s playmaking is he often looks out of place. This may be the reality here and there – Reed is aggressive in seeking out plays – but The Reed Method generally works. In the above clip, he tags the roller hard given the hard hedge, making sure to cut off the big’s roll. He leaves his man longer than advisable, but, in true Sheppard way, gets the steal anyways. He knows exactly where his man will be cutting and rotates to the exact point he needs.

Reed’s spatial awareness mixes excellently with his hand-eye coordination and timing. Sheppard blocks shots by swiping in the single foot of space that will allow a non-fouling contest. This happens often – he is first in steal rate and sixth in block rate (yes, despite being only 6’2”) among high major freshmen in rotations.

On offense, Reed’s feel shines in three areas: his ability to seek out soft pockets, his ability to get shots off in small spaces, and his creative passing deliveries. In the above clip Reed weaponizes his hesitation dribble in a unique way. He first hesitates off of the ball screen to give his roller more time. Realizing the roll man isn’t on time (and, in fact, two defenders are on his tail), he takes a second hesi, this time faking a layup with the move, an inventive solution. Hesitations work for fake shooting, not just feigning a pass, and allow Sheppard to keep his dribble alive long enough to find the corner shooter.

Reed has to get creative due to his stature, which we’ve seen him accomplish in his defensive coverages and now also his passing. Add in his ability to get shots off in tiny spaces with heightened awareness and you see the outlines of a savant.

Reed Sheppard has best in class spatial awareness and hand-eye coordination, two traits that combine to make a stocks machine. Adding in his small space craftiness mean his feel is truly elite. Sheppard covers large territories by moving with intention and knowing how to beat people to their spots. He covers small spaces with near perfect hand placements. While not always perfect, he has the tools to make as advanced feel plays as anyone this class.

Devin Carter

Moniker: Now you see me

Devin Carter has been a feel god for his three college seasons, and especially on the defensive end where he has accumulated 182 stocks to only 153 fouls. But Carter’s feel extends beyond simply knowing how to swipe the ball on defense, especially as he has expanded his offensive game significantly in the 2023-24 season.

Here we see one kind of Carter’s magic. In the middle of the paint with three defenders swarming, Devin somehow manages to find the space to finish and adjusts to use the backboard despite the awkward angle. Carter has a knack for finding angles like this, and all over the court. This is the kind of innate talent that allows him to finish at a 67% clip with three of every four makes self-created.

Carter is capable of thinking ahead to bend the defense, too. In the above clip he pushes into the gap to his right knowing how that would collapse help. The second the rim protector (#23) commits, Carter is ready to dump it off to his man. While Carter mostly engages in connective passing – moving the ball along the perimeter to play finishers – his development as a play finisher has meant more opportunities to pass out of scoring gravity like this. While he may force looks here and there (his 1.3 ATO ratio leaves something to be desired), the idea is always sound.

Make sure you finish the above clip! Carter, ever one step ahead, jumps in front of the rebounder to bully the ball back in his hands. He misses the trey, but the willingness is encouraging as well – Carter has miraculously raised his three point attempt rate from 6.5 attempts per 100 as a sophomore to 11.0 (!) as a junior. And while raising his 3P% from 30% to 39%

Another example of his passing progression. Carter is not accustomed to being hedged against that high, with newfound three point volume extending his gravity (6.5 3PA/game after 3.5 last season). However, he has immediately figured out how to use this to his passing advantage. Here, Carter makes a push dribble to split the hedge, then engaging with his two shooting targets. While nothing special for traditional point guards, this development is key to Carter’s upside. Not just for the skill itself, but for his ability to problem solve in evolving ways.

Carter appears where you least expect him to succinctly apply his broad skillset. It is tough to count him out of any single play given how he can connect passes, create them, finish off of drives or from deep and create transition opportunities on defense. All of these make him a first round-worthy prospect, with a solid floor and perhaps continually untapped upside, building on some of the best feel in the class.

Reece Beekman

Moniker: Cuts like a knife

The first clip below is quintessential Beekman, as you can already see how he deserves to be on this list.

Reece sets up the offense before receiving an exit screen he hides behind, then gaming the re-screen by rejecting in favor of the baseline. Already he has found a gap, and simply through accuracy of positioning. Next, he gives a slow snake through the paint before whipping a one-handed kick out to the corner. But the sequence is not done. Back on defense, Reece sprints through a double drag quickly enough to swipe around the ballhandler, poke the ball free and dunk.

Everything is on display here, from his care to involve his teammates on offense, his specificity of footwork, his situational awareness to take well-timed risks.

Above another accomplishment of a lot with a little. Recognizing that his teammates’ disorganized screening and cutting was futile, Beekman slashes into the lane with his left (65% of his drives). He waits for both of UVA’s shooters to clear out as he makes his move, help turned away or obstructed. Then, in the middle of the lane, he keeps his defender on his back with a well-timed hesitation sideways into his body. This also freezes the big man help, as his hesi opens up a passing window should he choose to dump it off. Instead, he finishes with a wide open window.

While UVA’s offense might get him easy assists as he is the conductor surrounded by cutters, Beekman has also figured out how to sneak in rim attempts below the radar like this. Beekman’s self created rim attempts per game increased by 40% from last season. He’s getting plenty of opportunities with his 28% usage but figuring out how to expand efficiently – his 52% true shooting is the highest mark of his college career. As a mediocre shooter overall, gaming interior opportunities like this is essential.

Beekman is a surgeon on the defensive end. He weaponizes his knife-like hands with perfect swipe placement, aggressive with both hands. According to the barttorvik.com database, Beekman has two of the seven seasons with a 4% steal rate or higher and fewer than two steals per 40 minutes. He clears both thresholds easily, the highest steal rate of that group with the second fewest fouls. He is the best perimeter defender in the class, through a wide stance capable of choppy feet but also picture-perfect positioning, timing for when to swipe. He will be an elite defender at the next level, too.

Reece Beekman has leveraged the same type of footwork accuracy that has made him a deadly matchup on the defensive end to expand his game on offense. With rim attempts and assists per game increasing ever year, it is unfair to count Beekman out for continuing to make his offense NBA-viable. Simply being where you’re supposed to, then cutting like a knife with decisive action is how Beekman operates. That will be deadly regardless of the competition.

Oso Ighodaro

Moniker: Steady presence

Our only big among the highest feel players (with respect to Clingan, Hall, Holmes, Almansa, Mogbo, Yang, Filipowski, Broome…there are a lot of high feel bigs in this class), Oso Ighodaro is the most mistake-free player on this list. Ighodaro gets stocks without fouling and assists without turning the ball over. He is the fulcrum for Marquette, and they are happy to allow him to make countless important decisions each game.

The first clip is on execution, Oso’s specialty. Just as his man begins to roll, noting the difficult angle the ballhandler would have to make a pass, Oso hops aggressively to trap the ball. Flustered, the ballhandler coughs it up with ease. Sticking with the play, Oso is ready for the ball on the fast break, takes a beat to spin to an opening and…blows the layup. It happens. But the important part is Oso is always ready, and in position.

Another example of perfect execution with a flair of creativity. Oso is a great screener, often considered a lost art in young bigs. Here he hunches over, making his body as big as possible to lock up the ballhandler’s defender. He rides this mismatch to the tin, and then, after a poor delivery, is nimble enough to spin mid-air and find a shooter. Ighodaro is not just capable of running your plays, but is prepared to adjust when things go awry.

Ighodaro is excellent with positioning on both sides of the court. Here he is vigilant to prevent the clear out, and then also the entry to Joel Soriano, despite being disadvantaged by 35 pounds. He gets leverage both high (pulling Soriano’s shoulder back) and low (getting under his center of gravity). When the Marquette defense breaks down anyways, Oso is ready to help — but not too far. Staying one step away, he has just enough time to rotate back for the block.

This type of feeling out positioning as not a strict guideline but basis to then make plays is the hallmark of Oso Ighodaro’s game. Any NBA team would be comforted by his stable presence, but also feel comfortable running second side actions in an instant. He has done this at a very high level with Marquette – bolstered by excellent finishing touch – and would be just as reliable in the NBA.

The post How Prospects Read the Game appeared first on Swish Theory.

That’s the first question I ask myself as I begin the process for my 2024 NBA draft board. By separating production, feel and athletic premiums, I will try to show my notes as I sort out my analysis of 2024 prospects.

Starting with production makes sense given it is the most observable, and by far. Players produce by getting stats, and we have plenty of stats. However, it is not as simple as a 1:1 translation, as many highly productive college players struggle to reach close to that production in the pros. The reverse – little production leading to great production – is rarer, but still occurs.

For our analysis, the definition of production will be something like: “able to make things happen almost by accident through presence and skill.” The “by accident” part works to strip away feel from the equation, which will be the next article. “Through presence and skill” aims to remove the athletic component, the third prong.

While grading prospects based on expectations of future production is impossible with 100% accuracy, the hope is we can land close enough to separate our views from consensus. Rather than spend a long article describing how production can play out on a basketball court, I illustrate how production occurs through five examples.

Tier 1: Dominance

Primary Example: Zach Edey

How does he produce on the court?

Zach Edey is the pinnacle of production, as shown by his NCAA-leading Box Plus-Minus of 14.3. This is the 12th highest mark in the barttorvik.com database, after posting the 13th highest mark the season prior. Edey is a beast.

His production is far from hidden, either. At 7’4”, 300 pounds with a 7’10.5” wingspan, Edey is gargantuan. His movement ability has improved every year, too. With his combined size and movement abiliy, Edey creates events on the floor almost on accident. Add in nimble footwork and elite spatial awareness and you have a player not just lumbering around but dodging and flipping hips as well at his size.

It would be miserable to be screened by Edey or have to box him out. That physical dominance earns Edey a 10 out of 10 for production, but not just for current rather than expectations in the pros.

How easily does he produce?

The margins Edey wins by are astronomical. It is tough to scratch the ceiling above rebounding 26% of defensive opportunities or 17% of offensive ones. When he posts up, he is capable of holding that position for many seconds awaiting an entry pass, and then is able to convert that into a hook, drop step, or just straight dunking right over his opponent. There is more scoring versatility than meets the eye with Edey, simply through the variety of angles he has access to at his size.

In addition, Edey is a vigilant screener and passer. It is easy to imagine him as an NBA-level screener at his size and movement ability, and likely a very good one. He has figured out how to double-hand kick-out pass above all opponents’ heads, more difficult in the NBA with swarming long-wingspanned defenders, but Edey’s size to find better angles won’t go away.

How will this get harder in the NBA and how can he adapt?

My counter-intuitive take is it might, in fact, get easier in the NBA. At the college level Edey has to deal with a double or triple team every single time he touches the ball. This has likely boosted his assist rate (again, the biggest area of production concern), but raised the degree of difficulty on his finishes (not that it mattered). The ease with which Edey can navigate multiple surrounding defenders swiping at the ball to still turn and finish should not go unnoticed, and might indeed lead to continued easy buckets in the pros.

Edey’s weakness is defending away from the basket, but as a likely drop defender that should have little impact on his overall production. His steals will be low but blocks high (he has swatted 8% of opponent attempts) and rebounding should continue to be above average for a big, if not flat out excellent.

Edey has improved his movement ability and fitness quality every year with Purdue. This provides a lot of encouragement to his ability to adapt to the pros. However, it is possible (if not likely) that his opponent will have to do more of the adapting, to Edey’s size and skill. Edey has put up historic usage and rebounding rates while shooting a spectacular 67% true shooting (84% at the rim, 41% midrange, 72% from the line) to the point that even a standard deviation drop would still be excellent. He makes things happen on the court constantly and will at the next level, too.

The question of whether the speed of the game is too much for Edey ignores the major strides he’s made in his fitness and also his dominance per minute. He might need to make additional improvements to physique to play over 30 minutes per game but he has shown the ability to do that the past two seasons at Purdue. Advanced training in the NBA (Zach has not yet turned 22) can help that along. However, Edey’s talent is worth slowing down for, and that would only likely be a little.

Examples of others in this tier?

None

Tier 2: Conditional Dominance

Primary Example: Reed Sheppard

How does he produce on the court?

Reed is on the opposite end compared to Edey’s stature: at 6’3” and 187 pounds, Sheppard faces an uphill battle for his production. He compensates with everything else.

To be a productive player you have to make unlikely events possible, and that’s exactly what Reed does. His greatest strength is his positioning and hand placement, as one thinks themselves open to only be surprised by a last second Sheppard. Sheppard’s production is difficult to separate from his feel, as he moves across the court almost automatically in optimal position. The production is real and significant all over the court, as Sheppard’s 12.4 Box Plus-Minus is the highest for all freshmen by a long shot. Indeed, he only trails Zion Williamson, Anthony Davis, Chet Holmgren, Michael Beasley, Evan Mobley, Karl-Anthony Towns and Kevin Love in the all-in-one box score statistic. The height hasn’t mattered to reach historic production already compared to his age group.

This means Sheppard’s production is all-encompassing, from stocks to rebounds to assists and points. By being in the right position and having the skill to capitalize, Sheppard looks like one of the most productive college players of all time.

How easily does he produce?

What prevents Sheppard from landing in the first tier is his stature at only 6’3” (and that might be generous). Simply by that fact the margins for him to overcome are more significant than for someone like Zach Edey who will always be a foot taller than Sheppard. His handle is also more functional than masterful, limiting his roaming with the ball and thus blocking off an area of potential production. Neither has mattered in the least for Sheppard, but he may find himself struggling to have an impact inside the arc against a trying matchup here and there in the pros.

The production on defense, however, is undeniable. Sheppard feels omnipresent on the court, rotating faster than one can process watching him. He is very strong, capable of banging in the post and stonewalling drives, but more importantly knows how to leverage that strength. This will give him a lynchpin on defense, not being attacked physically, to then make things happen with his rapid, accurate hand movements or by popping out of nowhere.

The distance shooting is bankable, too. He has taken 8 threes per 100 possessions and made over half of them. His release is lightning fast with little load time and good release point. That volume shooting will help space the court at any level, making closeouts easier to reduce the burden on his handle, and also open up passing lanes. Reed is not the most manipulative passer but, similar to his handle, is excellent at making it functional nonetheless.

How will this get harder in the NBA and how can he adapt?

Sheppard is so masterful in what he does well and versatile across the court it is highly likely he will produce at a high level in the NBA. The biggest challenge is the longer wingspans blocking off his passing lanes on offense and making his contests more difficult on defense. But Reed has already found ways to compensate for both. He gets off the floor very quickly with good ‘instant vertical.’ His hand placement often shows awareness to exactly where an opponent’s release point will be, or where they will gather before the attempt.

Sheppard’s feel for the game hints at future improvements, but that is for the next article. Sheppard is capable of producing (and likely very well) at an NBA level today with his activity, physicality and versatility of skillset. He creates events almost automatically as he gets into an opponent’s body or lets it fly in a split second from deep. Despite his stature, he is imposing physically in his own way.

While there can be knits to pick for his athletic tools, getting blown by or shot over here and there, he has used those opportunistically to reposition and make something happen even so.

Examples of others in this tier?

Jonathan Mogbo, Ron Holland

Tier 3: Omnipresence

Primary Example: PJ Hall

How does he produce on the court?

Post ups, spot ups, rolling to the basket. Cuts, transition looks, putbacks. PJ Hall does all of those things at least once per game. He also does that while vacuuming up rebounds, blocking shots and getting some assists and steals. His 30% usage for Clemson is top 10 in the country.

PJ Hall is active. Although not the quickest laterally (steals his weakest stat), Hall is a bruising big, listed at 6’10” and 238 pounds, who is physical all over the court. His front line speed and explosion is better than the mobility otherwise would suggest.

And yes, he scores from all over. While not the most difficult of looks – he only has five made shots off the dribble – it points to his variety of usage. By being strong and physical and constantly in place, Hall is ready.

How easily does he produce?

Hall is only in the third tier for this reason: the margins are often thin, especially for his scoring. His rebounding is likely the most ironclad contribution: Hall has a decent wingspan and can get off his feet quickly. Contested boards become clean ones often, with PJ claiming his with fervor.

The blocks come next, again benefitting from his interior strength and above average leaping. While far from a primary rim protector, an opponent would at least not be able to lose track of Hall’s location.

Hall has plenty of scoring versatility in college, which works for him in some ways but against in others. To start with the bad news, there is no obvious easy day one offensive specialty. His outside shot is okay (33% from deep, 79% from the line) with better luck inside the arc (57% from two). His primary scoring output comes from post ups, at 7.4 per game.

The good news is the breadth of skill means you don’t have to choose any single way to use him. Hall can fill in admirably in many spots. His post ups are not slow and plodding but decisive and featuring many drop step dunks. Posting up might not be his sweet spot but rather a means to an end.

How will this get harder in the NBA and how can he adapt?

The biggest difficulty for Hall on an NBA floor will be sticking to his man. While likely quick enough to guard your average big, he would often be faced with an athletic gap when defending in space. His fitness and physicality will counter that, a locked in facet of his game regardless of competition.

The biggest question is his willingness to let it fly, a major source of production in itself. Should he continue to let it fly with little hesitation, perhaps bolstered by a little more improvement in his percentages, Hall being in Tier 3 means he has more than enough stuff to stick around.

Examples of others in this tier?

Cody Williams, Matas Buzelis

Tier 4: Consistent Presence

Primary Example: KJ Simpson

How does he produce on the court?

Playing against KJ Simpson must feel like whack-a-mole: wherever you snuff out his movement, a moment later he’s popping up elsewhere. At just 6’2”, Simpson overcomes his stature a few ways: his strength, his instincts, his vertical pop, his quickness. These all make Simpson difficult to screen and difficult to keep out of the paint.

Let’s return to our definition of production, “how many things does he make happen by accident?” As he’s #13 in the NCAA for Box Plus-Minus, it seems a lot. He rebounds (16% rate), assists (26%) and gets plenty of steals (3.4%). He leads his team in usage at 27%. The statistical case for Simpson is very strong.

Simpson is capable of no-load threes as well as skying in for the occasional dunk (9 so far this season). He gets into his pull-up smoothly with four self-created perimeter points per game. He may not be a traditional tank knocking people around to cause chaos, but he can do it surgically while powerfully.

How easily does he produce?

The visual evidence is murkier than the stellar statistical resume. KJ Simpson wins often by small margins, but is intentional enough in his application that he gives just enough effort to win. This hints at Simpson being able to scale up or down at the NBA level as he can deliberately focus his efforts onto different roles. Need an on-ball initiator? An off-ball catch and shooter? A closeout attacker? A ball-moving connector? Simpson can effectively do any of these.

On defense, the steals come by activity and physicality. Simpson can bully weaker NCAA guards, even at only 189 pounds. He hits screeners when he is screened and boxes out hard. These might not all create events but it does carve out space on the court, and more than all but a few NCAA guards.

How will this get harder in the NBA and how will he adapt?

The NBA is not kind to small guards. But how small does Simpson play, really? There will be many plays that simply sail over his head which would not at the NCAA level, with the NBA full of big and wing creators. But Simpson’s role and athletic versatility will ease the adjustment.

While small guards still survive in the league, the margins are very thin. Simpson needs to continue refining his toolset to ensure an NBA impact. Already built and quick and a good leaper, Simpson is not far off from the median point guard’s athleticism, and may be greater than. But the easy victories will stop, only tough ones from here. This is why I ultimately knocked him down to an 8.5, in spite of a stellar of a statistical resume as nearly anyone in the NCAA.

Simpson is a good bet to find a way to contribute, but the degree is highly uncertain. Regardless, that’s a bet I’d be comfortable making in the first round.

Examples of others in this tier?

Tyler Kolek, Baylor Scheierman

Tier 5: Selective Presence

Primary Example: Milan Momcilovic

How does he produce on the court?

Milan Momcilovic is not convincing as an NBA-level athlete, but has the tools and skill to succeed regardless. His production is the most siloed of any we’ve described so far: he takes (and makes) a ton of threes. Despite this narrow avenue of contribution, Momcilovic still ranks in the top 10 for high major freshman by Box Plus-Minus. This is because Milan is 6’8” and has a quick, high release. Sometimes the analysis doesn’t need a second question: Momcilovic produces by hitting unblockable shots.

The rest of his game is middling, dragged down by his poor foot speed, limited burst and stiffness. A 12% defensive rebound rate and 2.1% block rate are closer to the stats of a 6’5” prospect than a 6’8” one, but there is a baseline of production nonetheless. And while Milan is not very mobile, he is still enough to be a consistent presence guarding fours.

How easily does he produce?

Momcilovic’s production is tilted towards three point volume, and that’s where he’s winning by large margins. The effective release height on his shot is more like a 6’10” player than a 6’8” one, releasing above his head with great arc. When we’re talking about projectable production, it is difficult to get more bankable than a release point that high going in at a 40% rate on very good volume. But that’s what we have with Milan.

His size comes in handy, even if not snagging down rebounds or skying for blocks. At his size he can set effective screens and generally be a big body on the court. Even when he’s not adding to his stat total, he’s taking up more space than the average NBA player.

How will this get harder in the NBA and how will he adapt?

He will be attacked on defense. Finding the right player to park Milan on will be essential for his early career success. Milan has little chance of hanging in with either 3s or 5s, relegated to the non-explosive 4s. That makes the margins tighter on offense where he has to be successful with his strengths. This is why Momcilovic is in Tier 5, as there is little guarantee he can hang in enough to capitalize on his strengths.

But the bedrock of high volume, high accuracy three point shooting is a function needed by every team, and Momcilovic is convincing as almost anyone in the class for that role.

Examples of others at this grade?

Wooga Poplar, Tre Mitchell

The post How Prospects Make Things Happen appeared first on Swish Theory.

The Minnesota Timberwolves will be a top 3 seed in the Western Conference.

Most NBA fans were down on the Timberwolves to start the year after the team had mortgaged most of its future picks to bring in Rudy Gobert and the fit between him and Karl Anthony Towns looked clunky from the get-go. Since then the Wolves have had some changes to the roster, trading away D’Angelo Russell for Mike Conley while also losing KAT for most of the season, unable to build any cohesion with the new roster. Despite this, the Wolves ended up as the 8th seed with a 42 – 40 record and a top-10 defense (at this point it might be more of a surprise if a team with Gobert does not end up achieving this.)

How does a team that lost one of the best offensive big men in the league for over 50 games still maintain that level of success, all things factored in? Well, perhaps it is an oversimplification but it is the creation jumps that both Anthony Edwards and Jaden McDaniels took last year while adding Gobert, Conley, and the Wolves’ unsung hero in Kyle Anderson. Before the Conley trade, the team struggled with turnovers and consistent ball movement in the half-court, and in addition to that, the team was still trying to figure out how to consistently use both Gobert and Towns while playing to both their strengths. Towns’ injury only emphasized this issue and the lineup of Conley, Edwards, McDaniels, Towns, and Gobert played a whopping 75 minutes together over 7 games (per NBA.com.)

This year is different for the Wolves. Barring health, the Wolves have the time to build chemistry, have a truly deep roster, and have two players under the age of 24 on dramatic development curves as creators. These are all the ingredients to catapult the Wolves into a top seed in the Western Conference. Getting Towns back this season is not just valuable because Towns is one of the best bigs in the league, but this roster was built to accentuate Towns’ strengths while mitigating his weaknesses. Using Gobert as the low man, Towns can go back to his Kentucky days where he operated more as the help-side rim protector. Having two elite defensive wings like McDaniels and Edwards helps funnel ball handlers from the perimeter into shot-blocking opportunities while also being able to rotate over and protect the rim in backline assignments when opposing teams specifically choose to bring either big out onto the perimeter in actions. All of this allows Towns to do what he does best, which is dominating on the offensive end.

The Wolves lacked ball movement and were very turnover-prone last year, quite literally bottom 5 in TOV% (per NBA.com) before Mike Conley supported some of those issues, so how do they fix that this year? I feel like the answer is staring right at us and that is to put Towns more into primary actions more often in the half-court, particularly more as a playmaker from above the break or from the elbows rather than sitting in the corner in spread pick and roll. Towns’ shooting gravity has truly unique value as a screener and out of DHO’s. When you have three guys in Edwards, McDaniels, and Conley who have shooting gravity and can effectively put the ball on the floor, while having Gobert who is still one of the best rim-runners in the league, there is a lot of potential for the Wolves to create effective offensive opportunities at the basket in the halfcourt. I think Coach Finch will see this as the season progresses and if they can maintain their defensive rating with Towns on the floor, I believe it is quite conceivable for the team to make a 6 or 7-game win jump from last year’s record.

Josh Url:

The Memphis Grizzlies will be in the play-in. 

In each of the last two seasons the Memphis Grizzlies had one of the 5 best records in the league and were the 2nd seed in the West. They accomplished this despite key players missing 25+ games each season. This season Ja Morant is suspended for 25 games and Brandon Clark and Steven Adams will miss most and all of the season due to injury.

This is nothing new. so why will they slide in the West?

Without the STRONG screens, smart passes, and extra looks from offensive rebounds Adams provides, the Grizzlies should see a drop in efficiency from an already below average offense.

Despite the presence of the last two DPOYs the Grizzlies are likely to see some slide in their defense too. Without Adams, JJJ won’t be as free to roam on defense as he did during his DPOY season. A deeper dive into the rotation will likely hurt the defense too.

@BeyondTheRK

The Thunder and Magic will outperform expectations by making the biggest leaps in each conference. This is the year Orlando and Oklahoma City return to the playoffs.

The Thunder crept into the play-in game last year, winning 40 games in the West without playing a traditional big man. This season, the fringe playoff team adds a unicorn to the frontcourt, without giving up anything. While his game isn’t traditional, his production is; Chet Holmgren is stepping onto the court as a help-side rim-protecting presence, a backdown middy pull-up fadeaway connoisseur, and a strong rebounder unafraid to get his hands dirty who brings a subtle yet menacing tenacity to the way he moves around the court, a tough mindset not often found in slimmer bigs.

Adding such a dynamic two-way talent to a team that already ranks in the middle of the pack in point differential and features a superstar scoring creator Shai Gilgeous-Alexander should only make guarding Thunder pick-and-rolls feel impossible, and can only take this squad’s ceiling to new heights. Ranking in the Top-3 in turnovers on both ends of the floor shows high-feel focus on the little things, a rare trait for such a young team. Giddey, JWill (x2), Dort, Poku, and Mann help round out a rotation with so much prospect depth that playing time will continue to shift towards the players who give the team the best chance to win, rather than opportunity to develop by playing through mistakes.

Teams with top-10 defenses and .500 records don’t miss the playoffs. Over their final 62 games, Orlando won half their games while rating Top-10 in both defense and drawing fouls, a pace that would have them in the play-in 7-10 range, all of which happened once Markelle Fultz returned from injury to the starting lineup, leading to Cole Anthony moving to the bench, leaving Orlando with a reliable PNR-running point guard on the floor at all times.

The Magic can rely on endless paint and spray drive-and-kick ball-movement for a sustainable offense going forward. On the season, Orlando ranked 15th in pace, 12th in points off turnovers, and 10th in drives per game, standing as one of only four teams with three players who drive into the paint at least ten times per game. In 966 minutes together, the starting frontcourt of Franz-Paolo-Wendell has a respectable +2 Net Rating. Year 2 Paolo and Year 3 Franz are ripe for mini-leaps as they ascend towards stardom, as the squad sees little to no turnover while adding veteran Joe Ingles and two rookie lottery picks to the locker room.

Coachable continuity and internal development of star talent will propel both teams forward.

Emil:

The Atlanta Hawks will directly qualify for the Playoffs.

The Atlanta Hawks went through some troubled times last season, with a coach that probably lost his grasp on the team and a star that didn’t look very happy for the situation. However, they managed to finish with a 41-41 record and qualify for the playoffs through the Play-in Tournament.

This season they are at the starting line with a new coach: Quin Snyder.

Snyder has an analytic-friendly coaching style that always delivered good results in the regular season; indeed his teams had widely positive records since 2016 (he had a 372-264 record in his Jazz tenure).

Moreover, Trae will probably approach this season more serenely and there’ll be a certain degree of internal growth of younger players like Okongwu, AJ Griffin and Jalen Johnson.

It’s not crazy to think they can improve their record and 45 wins were enough to directly qualify for the Playoffs in the Eastern Conference last season.

Matt:

Santi Aldama will win sixth man of the year.

With the news of Steven Adams out for the season, the Grizzlies are desperately seeking answers for the interior. Aldama would not be mistaken for Adams, 35 pounds shy of the New Zealander, but can provide a very useful different look for Memphis off the bench. Xavier Tillman is expected to start for Adams (barring a trade), but Aldama could give them a different kind of versatility, especially on offense.

Aldama is a kind of skeleton key for the Grizzlies, in that he can provide a combination of passing, feel for the game, screening, shooting and rebounding only exceeded by Jaren Jackson Jr. on the squad. At seven feet tall, Aldama is likely to get backup minutes at center for the Grizz, but has more functioned as a big wing up to this point.

Aldama has no hesitation when hoisting from deep, which means he’s capable of getting up as many as 10 threes per 100 possessions with a quick, high release. That mark, when combined with JJJ providing even more spacing, can clear up the paint for the Grizzlies, especially during Ja Morant’s suspension when rim pressure will be lacking. He is a good enough passer to hit cutters in the Grizz’s constantly in movement offense (9th by miles per hour last season) and good enough driver with long stride lengths. His screening is adequate, but best when ghosting into a three. That quick-trigger decision-making and willingness to let it fly make Aldama constantly guardable, a trait lacking in Tillman.

On defense, Aldama is not as mobile as you’d like in a wing or as good of a rebounder as you’d like in a big, capable of tracking rotations but less impactful from a playmaking perspective. But hey, 6MOY is about points anyways.

Charlie:

Jonathan Kuminga will get heavy 6MOY consideration

This is usually my least favorite award on the whole, because it really should be named for the leading bench scorer. However, Jonathan Kuminga has a chance to right the wrongs done to Andre Iguodala in his early Golden State years.

Elite defense, rebounding and solid-to-great connective playmaking won’t win you this award, unless you have healthy high-teens scoring to go with it. I think Kuminga is poised to make that leap and become the new fixture in their “Death Lineup” alongside Steph, Klay, Andrew Wiggins, and Draymond.

The shooting is coming along (46% from deep in preseason, 42% over last 30 reg season games) and he racked up 21.8 PPG in this preseason after a strong finish to last season. The drives are fun, teams can’t just spam unders, and he makes highlight plays that spark national attention. The blueprint is there for some serious hardware.

The post ROUNDTABLE: Bold Predictions for the 2023-24 NBA Season appeared first on Swish Theory.

This is not a preview of MIP candidates per se, but an appreciation for all the ways players improve, whether starting out their career and finding initial footing, figuring out their role mid-career for the first time, or taking a true, traditional star leap. Improvements happen all over every NBA floor, year after year, so it is more instructive to look at the nature of improvement itself, here in seven prevalent examples.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

Thesis: The MVP Scoring Leap

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander might buck the notion that the Most Improved Player winner is unpredictable; SGA’s star leap seems all too predictable, yet still that impressive. Shai’s rate of scoring has more than doubled from his rookie 19 points per 100 possessions to 44 points per 100 in 2022-23. Believe it or not, it could go higher.

SGA simultaneously has the dead-eyed professionalism that suggests he was made in a lab, while also maintaining the grace of a figure skater. The incisiveness and sharp edges of a figure skater, the ability to seek for opponent’s weaknesses like a machine. This is my brain trying to reconcile just how unique Shai is.

Maybe the best way is with some tape.

Here’s one way he destroys a defense, with an imperceptibly quick first step matched by long strides to create space. Easy. SGA can score a lot of these.

Above is a more hard-fought bucket, where SGA pulls an in-and-out decelerating into a spin into a dragged-foot gather and quick release to avoid the shotblocker. While others may be able to pull off this sequence, they can’t as smoothly or succinctly. To alternate the footwork here requires flexibility of mind, to instantaneously change cadence and strategy within a drive.

Finally, the strength and touch. Shai’s lower body flexibility, with long strides but also able to get lower to the ground in an instant, allows him to drive into an opponent as they are backpedaling.

Shai has truly leveraged his deceleration to create space, wingspan to get shots off and supreme touch to become one of the deadliest midrange scorers in the game. In 2022-23, he shot 48% on these with 9 attempts per 75 possessions. Based on the innumerate tools we can count, it’s tough to say these numbers will revert:

Putting it all together, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes a defender play back to avoid blow-bys, play up to avoid giving him leverage; makes a rim protector come out to protect the midrange, but also be wary of his endless finishing craft at the rim; if help comes, Shai is ready to swing ambidextrous one-hand kickouts. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is impossible to guard. With a more well-rounded team around him and a full slate of health, expect him to take yet another scoring leap, potentially league-leading.

The defense, well, is fine! Maybe more than fine. The effort comes and goes, but when he locks in – more often than not, if just barely – he can make some stellar plays on the ball with his rangy wingspan and quick ground coverage.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is commonly accepted as a star, with some even considering him a top 10 player in the league. This year, he solidifies it, and maybe even then some as a potential MVP candidate if he can do just a bit more of the same for a more competitive team.

Markelle Fultz

Thesis: Finding a Home

Markelle Fultz is a fun basketball player. It can be easy to forget that given his tumultuous NBA experience to date. But Fultz still only recently turned 25 and quietly has figured out how to work around his limitations. As such, and despite still falling short of the promise of his #1 selection, he should be considered part of Orlando’s young core.

Markelle Fultz defies the conventions regarding shooting gravity. I’ll show you how he creates both time and space despite still little sign of a three point shot.

First, the time.

Fultz has figured out how to win with oblique angles, whether driving sideways or taking an exaggerated turn in a spin move, all to make the court seem bigger than it is. While many guards create time by first-step advantage creation, Fultz takes the scenic route while accomplishing the same goal.

Here he uses his strength matchup to punish Brunson, biding time for the Paolo Banchero cut.

While spacing is a chief concern for the Magic offense overall, it’s possible Fultz has figured out a way to game his own.

Here he creates space for his teammates with non-three point forms of gravity: first, the midrange.

Markelle took major steps towards developing his middie this season, up to 46% from the field albeit on lower volume.

This is the first way Fultz challenges coverage out to the perimeter, the second being his complex route-carving:

Given a cushion, Markelle chooses his route and good luck staying in front (IQ does a fair job here). While his overall spot up efficiency remains subpar, his volume increased substantially and he made progress as the season went on. Fultz, in all his energetic approach to the game, is highly creative in adding complexities to his drives, different ways to approach the rim or pull-up in midrange. The accumulation of playing time – still to play 200 games – has finally accelerated that. His 138 drives this season nearly doubled his previous career total of 162, per Synergy.

On top of all this, Fultz is a terrific defender. With the instincts for timing and the athletic profile to make plays like this:

Given his continued development of the midrange and general creativity in driving, Markelle Fultz has overcome the challenges of his early career. Sooner or later he might be rightfully considered an important part of the Orlando core alongside Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner.

Jalen Duren

Thesis: A New Nightmare

Jalen Duren is a big and strong and physical presence on the basketball court, but that’s not all. But he’s mostly that, and we should dwell on it first. Duren is simply undeniable from an athletic standpoint, and while it takes little time watching to understand that, it deserves emphasis all the same. “There are a lot of big, strong athletes who don’t make it in the league, so give me a reason to care,” one might say. They are not like Duren.

Jalen Duren is 6’10” and 250 pounds, and already one of the biggest problems on the block. As a 19-year-old rookie, Duren was in the 93rd percentile for defensive and 97th percentile for offensive rebounds. 83rd percentile for shotblocking. Those rebounding numbers are very similar, while block numbers pale to fellow rookie Walker Kessler‘s. But Duren is both two years younger and had nearly twice the steal rate, speaking to his unusual production for age as well as ability to move further away from the paint. That last part is key to his star odds on both ends of the floor.

But first, just marvel:

That last clip above is particularly astounding to me, a man of that size ale to *dunk under* a smaller big in an instant to then finish in the open court. But we digress.

Jalen Duren‘s stardom hinges, for the most part, on his on-ball play for both offense and defense. On offense, there simply isn’t enough evidence to rule out Duren providing services beyond the traditional big man. The flashes of putting it all together are there, highlighting his coordination and surprising touch with the ball given his mallet hands.

Here, a left-to-right between the legs crossover to get inside of Jokic?

This, to me, is THE Duren clip. A quick read with timing and accuracy. Hitting the offensive boards with force. One dribble around rim protector to finish. That last part will only look cleaner and cleaner, as he still tried to force rim finishes from tougher angles than he needs to take. He’ll realize that, and soon, if not already.

Duren does not have to be hitting pull-up threes (as he was attempting in Summer League) to contribute on the perimeter. He will already be setting a million screens, an item he is improving upon but already effective at given his size and physicality. His free throw, midrange and rim shooting percentages, in addition to passing softness, have always pointed to someone with at least decent-to-okay touch as well.

He will be a monster in the interior, in particular playing off of Cade Cunningham who projects as one of the savvier PNR maestros in the league (they have not even played 80 minutes together). The threat of Cade’s midrange game combined with his passing acumen make Duren an obvious lob target; Cade’s inability to create initial separation only makes Duren’s screening more valuable.

But it’s his passing and handle that have shown glimmers of being something. Duren has a keen sense of timing, if not always 100% accurate, and loves to find cutters in unexpected positions.

Jalen Duren will never be an on-ball focal point. But, if after guarding the initial actions run by Cade Cunningham and Jaden Ivey, opponents have to deal with *anything at all* from Jalen Duren, it will likely be trouble. Simply, teams do not have the personnel to both keep a player of his size from dominating in the interior while also sticking with him near the three point line. If Duren can take a single dribble to then hit a cutter, or simply make the right basic reads to find a scorer in a pinch, that makes the Pistons’ game plan all the more dynamic. Pair that with Duren’s ability to not just protect the rim but switch onto the perimeter on defense, and the opponent runs out of answers.

If he can combine offensive growth with continuing to develop physically (a scary thought, but he is still not even 20), Duren not may but will be an All-Star in this league, and maybe sooner than you think.

Onyeka Okongwu

Thesis: Student to Master

Contrary to popular belief, it’s not easy to be the roll partner for Trae Young. It is extremely beneficial to one’s career if it works out – fair – but is far from a simple job. Onyeka Okongwu had his soft tryout for the position this season, and showed he is nearly capable with improvements in important areas. By far the most essential of those was, simply, getting used to playing next to Trae Young.

Before the 2022-23 season, Okongwu had only played 582 minutes next to Young, a little over one-third of his playing time. This past season, Onyeka played the majority of the time next to Trae, nearly tripling their career minutes together with 931 as a duo. Over this time OO learned how to set screens and not set screens, in a system with constant PNR play with two high usage ballhandlers in the backcourt. More importantly he learned how to dive to the basket.

Onyeka is short for a center at 6’9” but he is not small. He has the strength to match up with any big, but also accelerates like one, a bit slower than you’d like for a smaller center. However with his core and lower body strength matching his upper, Onyeka is able to make up for a slow initial step by leaping out of a cannon with powerful strides. Smartly, OO has figured out how to use this extra instant before catching up to design a path of his choosing.

To begin the season Onyeka was a bit shy looking for the ball on rolls to the basket, but by the end of the season became decisive in when to commit his dive to the hoop, showing for the ball along the way.

The results have been fruitful: Okongwu took the 17th most two pointers off of pick and rolls in the league, shooting 5th best of that group (behind Claxton, Gobert, Capela and Sabonis). He has also learned to weaponize this preternatural syncing of his leaps to action on the offensive glass, where he ranked 9th in putbacks and finished best in efficiency of those nine at 69% shooting.

He has also made up for some of the defensive slack as Capela has declined on that end. Okongwu exceeded Capela’s steal and block rates, though still fouling at a greater frequency. But Onyeka is capable of extending out from the rim near the three point line, hanging in on switches but most importantly suffocating the top of the paint with his activity, wingspan and strength, one of the best driver-stiflers in the league.

Again he has figured out how to use his ‘loading delay’ to catch up strategically, whether to wall off drives or swoop in for blocks, defensive boards. Okongwu was as productive as a big beyond his height, figuring out how to knife through traffic before turning into the Juggernaut. OO ranked 24th in the league in estimated wins contributed in 2022-23 according to dunksandthrees.com, in between the more senior teammate Clint Capela and former #1 pick Deandre Ayton, at 23 minutes per game.

Okongwu may look like he’s just fitting in at first glance, but he has become one of the most prolific play finishers near the hoop and a mobile brick wall on defense, one of best in the league at guarding the big rim pressure wings like Giannis Antetokounmpo. On top of this, his free throw percentage and deep midrange shooting percentage are more than respectable, at 74% and 45%, respectively.

Okongwu’s path to stardom is by being the player you hate seeing inside the paint who also makes few mistakes. He’s been working on that second part, encouraged by good minutes in the starting unit and a developing rapport with Trae and Dejounte. He’ll need to keep finding that rhythm to reach the next level, but the way he strategically utilizes his sledgehammer strength and keeps adding on to his offense is encouraging that he just might get there. With more minutes to keep gaining comfort and utilize his athletic strengths, Onyeka could look like one of the better starting centers by the time the season has ended.

Jaden McDaniels

Thesis: Star Drifting

Being guarded by Jaden McDaniels is like being sucked into a propeller. Unsuspecting offensive players challenge him, a young player not even 200 pounds who found himself on the opposite side of matchups with LeBron, Zion, Jayson Tatum. But as they do they are met with a flurry of limbs slicing at the ball from all angles, no space available with his ballerina-light footwork. You can overpower him if you can avoid these traps, but it’s harder than it sounds.

McDaniels has quickly showed himself to be one of the elite young players at the meeting point of physical athleticism and processing speed. This is most evident in his screen navigation, where he views every one as a unique challenge, sometimes dodging with one hop behind or in front, or dropping his shoulders with waving-guy-at-car-dealership flexibility. After he gets through, he can backpedal with precision, poking at the ball endlessly until you cough it up under pressure.

The thing is, McDaniels is also skilled, smart and athletic on offense. He does not have to be, consistently, considering his defensive burden and the talents of Anthony Edwards, Karl-Anthony Towns. But the more dribble / pass / shoot options an offense has, the more difficult it is for a defense to collapse onto those stars, with McDaniels certainly surpassing the ‘do we care’ threshold.

My favorite thing about McDaniels on offense is he can catch the groove – he understands how to extend a play for his teammates, and the value of making a quick decision:

His shot is certainly good enough, as well, with true shooting finally reflecting his scoring talent in rising to 61% from 55% his prior two seasons. In particular he was able to raise his midrange volume to 2.6 attempts per 75 possessions, shooting a respectable 45% on them. If opponents have to respect Jaden’s dribble pull-up in addition to his connecting passing to keep an offense greased, he is not just an offense placeholder but a clear positive. The fact that McDaniels has been able to increase his usage while becoming one of the best lockdown perimeter defenders in the league is astounding.

There are flashes of something beyond, too, with his pull-up shooting, a strong 45% from the field off the dribble on 101 attempts. The fluidity of motion is incredibly encouraging:

It does not feel brave at all to predict McDaniels as a future star in the league, as he is making sure he is covering every base to do so. A screen-navigating stocks machine who can blanket a ballhandler. Who can also provide tertiary at worst, secondary at best ballhandling and shotmaking. That is not just a player every team could use to bridge the gap between their stars, but likely a star himself.

Keita Bates-Diop

Thesis: Elevating Stars

Keita Bates-Diop is the most underrated connector in the league, an incredible development story with one of the most unusual statistical trajectories. I mean, just look at the shape of his Estimated Plus-Minus graph:

KBD turned 27 years old during this past season, the first time he has been a positive player in the league. This happens to coincide with his upcoming transition from gap-stopper with a rebuilding team to star-elevator on a contender.

Everything about KBD’s game is clicking at once. Take a look at his three point percentage:

Defensive impact:

Or his assists rising to 2.5 per 75 possessions after never exceeding 1.7 previously.

Keita Bates-Diop, essentially, became one of the best connectors in the league that isn’t a household name. With Devin Vassell missing most of the season due to injury, KBD filled in the gaps admirably.

His strength is his flexibility across the court, the sinew of both a half court offense and defense despite no outlier traits anywhere. At 6’8” with a 7’3” wingspan, KBD is good enough at all skilled things on the court to be respected on offense, or at least he is now. His handling is good enough to get to the rim, finishing at a good rate though not a dynamic dunker; he is capable of hitting open threes, though slow release means volume will never be high; his passing is mostly connecting, keeping the ball moving or dribble into a handoff/kickout.

The thing about these limitations is, Bates-Diop is joining one of the most talented groups of scorers of all time, likely to play significant minutes next to Kevin Durant, Devin Booker and Bradley Beal. With respect to Tre Jones, Keldon Johnson and Malaki Branham (his three most common pairings last season), KBD’s connecting utility is only going to shine more with brighter stars.

Here KBD quickly notes Rudy Gobert helping for KAT in the Wolves’ pick and roll, catching off a stampede to finish at the hoop.

Bates-Diop can hold his own guarding the elite wing threats, very mobile with plenty of length and activity to wall off drives. He is also supreme at holding together a scheme, communicative and highly aware of his positioning. His acceleration is the lacking physical trait, compensated for by rapid-fire steps to stay in front of the ball. While he can extend his stride length when needed, KBD simply is not a highly dynamic athlete, and therefore unlikely to dramatically change a team’s fate on the defensive end. But he can execute what he needs to, making timely back-line rotations or switching 1 through 5 as needed.

If he continues his rate of improvement, in addition to the effect of filling an even more essential role for the Phoenix Suns, Keita Bates-Diop just might look like one of the most improved players in the league. He is one of the savviest movers and does not dwell on difficult decisions. He is a long mobile wing who can shoot a little, pass a little, rebound a little and defend. Put him next to elite shotmakers and athletes and he may look nearly as compelling as they do.

Keegan Murray

Thesis: Strategic Dynamism

Keegan Murray is obsessed with making the right play by his team’s standards, but potentially reducing his star power as a result. With every by-the-book move Murray gives up an opportunity to Just Try Stuff that defines most traditional stars. However, his ability to adapt to whatever the scheme is throwing at him on both sides of the floor might make him a star regardless.

Murray is excellent at following instructions, which entailed simply letting it fly his rookie season. Keegan set the rookie record for three pointers made, beating Donovan Mitchell‘s mark by 19 threes. That is incredibly impressive in its own, speaking to how Keegan understood his role and maximized it. But he is much more than that, and we already saw the glimpses peeking out.

Keegan struggled a bit at times during his rookie season, particularly dealing with the increased pace of the game on the defensive end. But he gained comfort by the end of the season, in particular nailing his helpside rotation to the rim as he often covered the weakside shooter. These are not particularly difficult assignments, but given the high leverage nature of the Kings’ season as the three seed in the West, and how he was playing with majority-starter lineups 75% of the time, impressive nonetheless.

Sometimes, like above, they were quite impressive indeed, showcasing his nose for sniffing out actions that shone more and more throughout the season.

The offense is much more than just the outside shooting, though Keegan’s low usage rate did not allow for much experimentation. However, we know from his college days he can dominate both in transition and in the post, both areas where he struggled as a rookie. Murray’s programmatic style of play makes improvising difficult, and predictability is a death knell for a rookie. But Murray is also a problem-solver, and there remained sparks of off the dribble shotmaking.

The touch is very good, shooting 57% at the rim and 49% on runners while at Iowa shot 70%(!!) at the rim and 42% on runners. Keegan’s transition and post dominance in college came from simple over the shoulder push shots, or leaning jumpers, of course buffered by plenty three point volume.

Keegan may bore his opponent to death but he will do it while getting buckets. His adaptability in year one should not be taken for granted, nor should what his college resume says about his offensive ceiling. If the pace of the game slows even just a little bit for Keegan, he should be an easy Most Improved Player candidate.

The post Seven Ways to Break Out appeared first on Swish Theory.

Finding commonalities in this group of stars is almost a trick question, as there are myriad reasons why a player may be ranked lower out of high school than is reflective of their long term abilities. However, there is something counterintuitive in these players not just thriving, but specifically as primaries or high-end secondaries. These players are able to shoulder major burdens on offense through combinations of technical prowess and unique athletic profiles, not a secret formula to anyone but important in its ubiquity across programs.

Searching for mid-major primary/secondary bets in 2023 needs to take into account how more likely high usage mid major players are to transfer up to high major given increased transfer portal and NIL incentives. We have in our sights for the 2024 draft two such prospects who will be leaving the Summit League and Conference USA to join the ACC and WCC (technically dubbed mid major still, but with hardly a competition gap to the ACC).

Andrew Rohde has not yet turned 20 and will be transferring to the University of Virginia after helping to lead St. Thomas to a top 200 finish in only its second ever Division I season. The rising sophomore will form a lethal backcourt with Reece Beekman.

Aly Khalifa is older, 21 and finishing his second playing season with the Charlotte 49ers after redshirting there. He will be transferring to Brigham Young University to play center next to Fousseyni Traore.

Both of these players have the primary stuff, it’s just a matter of the game forming around them and refining their athletic tools to unleash the special. Here’s how they do it, and what could get in their way.

Andrew Rohde – Primary Stuff

Rohde is an escape artist with elite touch, shifting with his 6’6’’ frame from attacking to pulling up or kicking out in an instant. Aesthetically, he checks the boxes, a whirlwind of instantaneous playmaking when he’s on, always hunting for ways to heat up.

Checking the boxes for a primary prospect works a little differently. Rather than the toolsy route, these technicians nurture a fluid creativity balanced against constant opportunism. Essentially, primaries need access to a nexus point where they can go from advantage created to advantage capitalized. They need to switch from creating the seam to filling it without the opponent adjusting. The rarity is in the process of climbing that ladder.

To be more literal, primaries have to both get by their opponent and have the skill to make the bucket or right pass, and awareness to know the difference. But most of all, they need to be comfortable repeating their particular brand of advantage over and over. That’s why it has to look easy.

For Rohde, it does not always look easy, at least not yet. But we see forming the outline of that nexus, and when it hits, it’s not just good but great.

The first way Rohde creates advantages is his shiftiness. The first step is good if not great for 6’6” height, and last step can flail with poor planting. We should mention, finally, that Andrew Rohde is very skinny. Listed at 160 pounds, Will Barton could likely outlift the former Tommy, current Hoo. But he is vigilant nonetheless pursuing routes to shake his opponent, and willing to mask his drive against opponents’ cadence before changing the pattern entirely, whether in iso or using screens. When he commits to a move, it typically works.

This ability is also supported by a good core stance in drives, the kind that gives him All-Star upside (yes, you read that right). Despite his slight build, Rohde squares his body as if he wasn’t. He attacks with sharp angles into the body of his opponent, often followed by fadeaways in the paint. He shot 41% on midrange jumpers with only 8% assisted, a number that showcases his physicality sprung out of will and technique.

His strong technique also allows Rohde to shoot with ease from distance. Skinnier guards often struggle with movement shooting with even a smidge of inefficiency in their form, but Rohde can fire from NBA range off of movement without a second’s hesitation. This higher difficulty of shot and, well, the fact that he could indeed benefit from more core strength, led to inconsistent results. But Rohde seemed to figure it out as his endurance grew, shooting 41% from deep from mid-January to end of season. The touch is very good, shooting 62% at the rim with only 19% of makes assisted as well as 81% from the free throw line.

Finally, Rohde is a creative passer, if not a perfect one. His ideas are good, particularly aware of how his drive gravity creates lanes for others. Often he can be seen predicting which help defender will pinch in, kicking to a shooter just as the opponent commits. The limitation here is again lack of strength, as Rohde may plant his feet fuzzily which leads to passing inaccuracy. As the strength improves, expect the assist numbers to as well.

Rohde will be particularly devastating running pick and roll. His sense of timing is sublime, again urged by his urgency, a player you can count on to sniff out an opponent’s weak point. The vision lacks a bit here and there, as he may miss unexpectedly open opponents in favor of predetermined reads, but overall excellent for his age.

The biggest question with primary bets is not just can their defense hold up, but can it in a way that harvests energy for their offensive usage. Rohde, to his credit, is interested in more than that, constantly seeking out ways to strip or tip the ball away from unsuspecting opponents. You almost forget he is closer to 150 than 200 pounds based on his activity, though reminded when he comes head to head with a stronger opponent in the interior.

My biggest confidence in Rohde’s physicality holding up as intensity grows is due to his approach to the game. As a freshman carrying 28% usage, it would be understandable if he caught his breath on the defensive end. Rather, Rohde sported a 3% steal rate, with no other freshman matching that combination of thresholds (Duke’s Kyle Filipowski and Syracuse’s Judah Mintz were the closest). His 11% defensive rebound rate is respectable, speaking to his sense of timing. He tries hard when screened, setting himself up well by taking the same sharp angles that define his driving game on offense.

Aly Khalifa – Primary Stuff

Moving from guard to center, the aesthetics remain elite with the 6’11’’ Khalifa. Perhaps the best passer in all of college basketball, Aly also shot 38% on 126 threes. He is big skill personified, with lack of buzz coming from older age at 21 and also his history of being above optimal playing weight.

A major prospect from a young age, Aly Khalifa was part of Egypt’s U-17 squad and trained with the NBA Academy, playing next to Josh Giddey, Dyson Daniels, Bennedict Mathurin, Olivier Maxence-Prosper and others on the prestigious team selected to compete against top European youth talent (they won the tournament, with Khalifa as a significant contributor). Never considered mobile, Khalifa peaked in weight at a listed 255 pounds at Charlotte, clearly not the best version of his playing self as a freshman post hia redshirt season. He slimmed down some for his second playing season, still not in ideal shape but now dominant on the court regardless.

Uncertainty can be your friend in basketball. Specifically, it can be beneficial to have access to a wide range of outcomes that others don’t, and sometimes it requires leaning into the uncertainty to benefit. While he is still figuring out his optimal basketball build, Aly is already one of the best players in college basketball. Should he continue to advance his physical regimen, it’s difficult to say what the upside is, and why, like Rohde, an All-Star level offensive game is not entirely off the table (yes, you also read that right).

Returning to our analysis of his game and specifically as a potential primary, Aly Khalifa creates space simply by being on the money with his decision-making and advanced with his skills. The passing is the most obvious, with a 22% assist rate, 1.7 assist-to-turnover ratio.

I have confidence saying Khalifa is the best at hitting cutters in the entire NCAA, and perhaps its best overall passer since Sharife Cooper. His passing ability is mediated by lack of dribble drive ability, but Aly hardly needs to manipulate his college opponents considering his passing accuracy, timing and general decision-making.

But Khalifa has a developed scoring repertoire, too. He shot 48 for 126 (38%) from three, 24 for 61 (39%) from midrange, 88 for 125 at the rim (70%) and 32 for 43 (74%) from the line, all indicators of a very good shooter, particularly for his height. Those numbers pop even more considering over half of his rim makes and over 90% of his midrange field goals were self-created, meaning a high degree of difficulty to showcase his touch.

Particularly impressive is his technique, executing flawless no-load threes (where he does not need to bring the ball down below his shoulders) and blind hook shots over his head. With only one dunk on the season despite being 6’11’’, Khalifa had to use every ounce of touch and craftiness to get his points.

His scoring consistency could have been better, as he often settled outside the paint as the team’s best table setter, preferring to stretch the offense with his shooting gravity where he can find streaming cutters. He also has an allergy to drawing fouls, which we’ll get to later. But as far as play finishing technique, Khalifa is clearly studied. No better game showcased this than against Western Kentucky, matched up with the 7’5’’ shotblocking fiend Jamarion Sharpe. Khalifa got up a total 14 attempts from three, connecting on six of them, particularly heating up down the stretch. He showed not just clean catch and shoot ability, but also hit off of some movement or awkward angles, always able to stabilize with his supreme balance and technique.

Essential to both the scoring and passing working though, is Khalifa’s exceptional screening. Here I’ll leave you with one clip to exemplify how he approaches screening. Aly takes out first his man, locking him up momentarily and also misleading his intention. Immediately after, Khalifa instead switches to screening the ball handler’s man, now slowing both parts of the pick and roll to allow his teammate to waltz to the hoop. Khalifa consistently uses his full shoulder when setting screens without fouling, a true art in itself.

Khalifa’s strengths point to his dedication to his craft, but also compensatory necessities to overcome his athletic deficiencies. Reading the above strengths paints a Jokic-esque picture, but Khalifa, while a good handler for his size, does not have the preternatural probing ability off the bounce of his spiritual protégé. Much like Rohde he struggles to draw fouls, but the tools are there to potentially do that as well.

Khalifa’s defense has a better bedrock for stability right now, simply by virtue of Aly being the size he is. He moves well when already moving, but would be around worst in the NBA for abruptly changing direction or accelerating. He can buy good will and keep a scheme together, though, through his above average activity and awareness.

Are They Athletic Enough?

I have little doubt buying the skillsets of both Rohde and Khalifa at face value, convincing in their offensive firepower as prospects. But to even approach primary or secondary usage you need to be able to enforce your will to set up what you want when you want, or at least be ready to take advantage of what the defense allows.

Between them they totaled 11 dunks on the season, and 10 of those were by the guard, Andrew Rohde. Rohde has the length and shiftiness to get rim opportunities, selective but still ready to take advantage. Rohde, in fact, plays with a good bit of physicality considering his low BMI. The free throw rate is not high, but it is not through lack of trying, and with Rohde’s ability to create space with change of direction, not as necessary to perform at a high level.

Rohde needs to add weight, but his strong sense of technique points to a player ready to maximize whatever is added. He has a decently wide frame, although more sharp than rounded shoulders means he will more often be a cut-into-opponent player than bullying with strength. He already has the core strength to shoot from distance, and that additional weight will only help to stabilize the shot and perhaps add consistency.

The key area for Rohde is the paint. He is studied from the school of Jalen Brunson, with a proclivity for attempting to stop abruptly and pivot once two feet in the lane. Despite the sound strategy, this is probably the weakest current part of his skillset, as his lack of core strength means difficulty planting his feet to pivot cleanly. This led to unnecessary turnovers, but also occasional sloppy passing as he tries to regain his footing.

I’m most optimistic about Rohde as an athlete due to his screen navigation. Understanding his own limitations and strengths, Rohde anticipates screens by ducking sharply to the side, with good acceleration to catch up to his man. That understanding shows a player highly aware of how to weaponize what he has, encouraging that he will figure out how to incorporate weight gains in a similar manner.

Aly Khalifa, meanwhile, comes from the other end of the spectrum, playing above optimal weight but on the right trajectory from his freshman season. We have tape of him playing closer to his ideal weight with FIBA and NBA Academy, but still have yet to see his best physique.

On the offensive end, it is difficult to say how much athletic gains will help Khalifa’s odds as an initiator/playmaker. He has learned to succeed while relatively stationary with the ball, ultra-intentional with his decisions. The biggest item he currently lacks is ability to generate quick paint touches, with complete lack of acceleration nor the meandering dribble of a Jokic. That outcome – being so deft with your handle to protect it from much shorter defenders swiping – is unrealistic for anyone 6’11’’.

But the main item that can improve is his interior foul drawing. The pieces seem to be in place here: Khalifa is adept when he decides to post with intention of scoring, bumping shoulders right when his defender is off balance. However his inability to dunk with ease (only 1 the entire season) means he prefers to release contested hooks rather than build his repertoire out of physicality. Khalifa has the craftiness of a grifter, but that has been far from his modus operandi for bucket-getting thus far.

Should he add a modicum of burst, Aly might be able to take advantage of small space advantages better than he does now. But his foundation of scoring is so polished in favor of avoiding these confrontations as a trade-off. Here again we remind that his touch indicators are quite strong, shooting 70% at the rim despite only a single dunk.

The Impact of a Timely Transfer

Finally, both players will be receiving a boost from joining larger programs, both on an off the court. On the court, both players get better front/backcourt mates, with Khalifa likely to start next to the screen and dive big, more mobile Fousseyni Traore. At UVA, Rohde should start next to Reece Beekman, one of the best defenders in college basketball who has improved mightily as a table setter. Both duos are synergistic by type, with Traore and Beekman more physical and mobile than their new offensively talented teammates.

The team playing styles are encouraging as well. BYU loves to have their bigs operate outside the paint, making decisions; UVA keeps things simple for their guards, likely to be fully encouraging of Rohde to maximize his strengths (expect a ton of threes). But not having to worry about the tougher defensive assignments with more defensive-minded teammates should make the leap in competition more than tolerable.

Off the court, the athletic department budgets balloon from comparable measures with these prospects’ incumbent schools. Going from Charlotte to BYU means about double the program budget surrounding Khalifa, while Rohde gets a much more dramatic 20x increase from the newly D1 St. Thomas to the former champion University of Virginia. There is not a 1:1 correlation in athletic gains by university budget, but for players needing more attention to physical development, it can only help, and perhaps drastically.

Conclusion

Looking at our player diagrams (dark gray = current trajectory, light gray = potential), we see the skillsets of likely NBA role players with All-Star potential on offense and starter ceilings on defense. That might be a tough pill to swallow for players you may not have known about before starting this article. But both have impressive pre-NCAA pedigrees – Khalifa with FIBA and NBA Academy, Rohde as ultra-productive HS player and good at EYBL – and shown rare combinations of production, playmaking and shotmaking. And we have not seen either’s optimal physique, with gains available for their driving and foul-drawing. Both are already quite coordinated; additional core strength could make them both three point and midrange shooting monsters, potentially capable of large offensive burdens at any level.

When aesthetics meets production, I pay attention. That’s first and foremost what we have here, as both players simply look the part when they’re launching threes or finding teammates at the perfect time. But the accumulation of tools is convincing as well, and neither of these two is wired to be done. Look for an entire new bag of tricks from both this coming season.

The post Becoming Primary: Aly Khalifa and Andrew Rohde appeared first on Swish Theory.

I’ll also touch on my misses from last year, and how I hope to correct for shortcomings next cycle. Let’s waste no more time and dig in.

2023 Values

This section covers the players I ranked highest relative to the actual draft results, utilizing Kevin Pelton’s draft selection value table. Is there a common theme, am I missing or onto something?

Drafting with One Eye Closed

GG Jackson (my #12, drafted #45), Trayce Jackson-Davis (my #26, drafted #57), Leonard Miller (my #9, drafted #33), Jalen Slawson (my #28, drafted #54)

My biggest difference this cycle from last was trying to have a more holistic approach to a player’s own role curve. That is to say, comfort with a role (particularly in the NCAA) is not automatic, unlikely chosen by a player and often different than presented in recruiting efforts. College teams need players to win, development systems need player to develop, players just want to be selected as high as they can while balancing the goals of stakeholders around them. It can be messy, and often is.

The group I’m discussing here did not all have sub-optimal roles, but perhaps ones that masked their appeal as prospects, or distorted viewpoints of how they might contribute.

My single greatest difference to actual draft results was one Gregory Jackson the Second. At #12 on my board, Jackson was not selected until the second round by the Memphis Grizzlies. While rumors abound of immaturity from GG during team workouts, I’m less bothered given the substantial talent, obvious at his young age.

The most significant obstacle to draft analysis, in my view (beyond not knowing ball) is to make a one-to-one connection between items you notice and items of significance. Watching GG, it is not difficult to spot places where he could do better. Passing is the most obvious, often tunnel-visioned in his scoring approach, amplified at South Carolina by few other legitimate options but still clearly present in Summer League play as well. But if one were to ding Jackson for each and every missed pass, one might come away with a more negative view than is accurate in consideration of his star power, and that’s really what we’re here for.

It is more damaging to not take major swings than it is to have the occasional bust. If a player busts, his on-court impact simply goes to zero – there is a natural downside limit in that you’re not forced to give a player playing time, nor does it necessarily hurt your odds of acquiring more talent. But if he hits, and I mean truly hits, as in worth a max contract, that changes your franchise’s profile over a decade or more. This asymmetry runs up against basic human intuition: risk aversion means we are naturally suited to play it safe. But for that exact reason can be the source of extreme value in the NBA draft.

GG was third in usage of all freshmen as the youngest player in all of college basketball. He never looked overwhelmed athletically, consistently hitting the boards (17% defensive rebound rate) while using up a mega amount of iso (100), PNR (107) and spot up (143) possessions. Simply put, senior year HS aged players are not built like GG, not often. While a scout may see a sea of red marking up his execution on complex plays, he is able to put himself in those scenarios over and over with the flexible tank that is his hulking 6’9’’, 215 pound frame.

GG has a combination of traits I view highly in combination: when he has his nose in a play, he is determined to finish it (dawg factor); a frame to play power forward or small-ball center; the flexibility to get low into drives; an elite second jump; good shooting mechanics. Those are the traits of a scoring engine – as I put it in my scouting report of Jackson early in the season, “GG wants to be your team’s leading scorer,” and he has the mold for it. There are simply not many people in the world who have that combination of traits at an NBA level, and it takes two seconds watching GG move in Summer League to see how easily he belongs, physically.

Moving on to the rest of the group, the theme remains of swinging into uncertainty, where you have tangible evidence of NBA player-ness. By that last term I mean a collection of base skills that would be surprising to find in a non-NBA player. Let’s go through them quickly.

• Trayce Jackson-Davis: production, production and production; second jump; balance; sparks of creativity and touch at size
• Leonard Miller: dawg factor; production at age and competition; elite flexibility; sparks of creativity and touch at size
• Jalen Slawson: production and athletic versatility; team success; sparks of creativity and touch at size

The common trait for these remaining three is having some passing and some shooting touch but also defensive creativity, capable of picking up unexpected assists, steals or blocks in ways that took their opponents by surprise. Being two steps ahead of processing at lower levels, or even just hanging in at a higher level (in Miller’s case) is a good sign of being able to pick up NBA schemes, and the size of all three makes it easier to get the reps to showcase that. The flashes of touch and passing are simply compounding benefits as different areas of value on the court and expanding number of schemes in which they fit.

All four of the players here have role questions. “Can GG play off-ball?” (Summer League answer: yes); “Does Lenny fit cleanly into the 3, 4 or 5?” (Summer League answer: yes); “Can Trayce Jackson-Davis protect the rim as a 5?” (tbd); “Can Jalen Slawson shoot well enough to be a 3?” (tbd). But I also think these questions oversimplify what is a chaotic process in scouting. As Avinash said in his stellar Leonard Miller piece, “since when can we effectively project roles to begin with?”

That is not to say we shouldn’t try to project role, but we certainly shouldn’t let confusion in the exercise stop us from ranking a prospect highly.

I call this section “Drafting with One Eye Closed” as drafting is foremost an act of imagination, but that includes some willful optimism at times. The balance of cost relative to benefit of trying to make an unusual player work is lopsided, assuming the talent is indeed there. We draft players to try to alter the path of franchises, and the only way to do that is to try where others do not. Role occlusion, whether established upperclassmen or molds-of-clay youngsters, can be an opportunity masked by the same risk that drives people away.

To put the concept in more human terms, the game of basketball evolves in unexpected ways, and you need unexpected players to fit that evolving vision. The talent and effort side is the player’s job; fitting them onto the basketball court is the role of those around them.

Make Something Happen

Nick Smith Jr. (my #13, drafted #27), Amari Bailey (my #19, drafted #41), Sidy Cissoko (my #25, drafted #44)

Decision-making can be the most maddening NBA skill to dissect, making it all the more important in our evaluation of guards specifically. Guards typically survive on being nimbler, better handlers, shooters than their taller brethren, but this also means they have to make a greater number of decisions with or near the ball. If their decision-making is sound, they will make the product better, scheme running smoothly each time; if poor, the whole system can collapse. Repeat the process not once or a few times but dozens of times per game, thousands over a season. Despite having only middling 17% usage (7^th on his own team), Kyle Lowry still touched the ball over a thousand times in the 2023 playoffs, as an example. Whether or not a guard is a true lead initiator, they are going to be making countless decisions for your team.

Nick Smith Jr., Amari Bailey and Sidy Cissoko all make decisions in vastly different ways, which mixes differently for each of them with their differentiated skillsets. Sidy Cissoko is tall and strong for a guard but a poor shooter, Nick Smith Jr. is shorter and very skinny but a great shooter, Amari Bailey falls in between for all three traits.

Their playing cadences are vastly different, with NSJ being an elixir, playing like white blood cells seeking out weaknesses; Sidy is a maniac, unpredictable-squared; Amari Bailey is consistent in effort first and last. All are deviants from the expected in their own ways: given Nick Smith’s elite touch and handle creativity, one would expect him to be a pure hooper. Sidy one could easily cast aside as an unreliable project. Amari’s consistency of effort could prevent an analyst from noticing the flairs of upside.

My source of comfort in ranking them highly varies for each of them, as well. But it is consistent in one thing: the route-making of offensive schemes has always been a jagged line rather than a straight one. The ideal basketball play is a run to the basket and dunk, or run to the three point line and swish. But with the constancy of movement and ten athletes making decisions simultaneously, the way forward is rarely straight through.

This section is a dedication to the basketball weirdos, or irregularities in subtle ways. Amari Bailey may seem like the outlier in his inclusion, as Sidy and NSJ’s funkiness jump off the page. But Amari covers a ridiculous amount of ground as an athlete, both laterally and vertically, the type of athlete which would thrive as a cornerback or an outfielder or tennis player or…really anything. But Bailey plays subtly, workmanlike to the point of nearly hiding this fact. One is used to athletes of Bailey’s versatility taking up usage wherever they can, testing the limits of the dynamic fun that it must be to have those tools at one’s disposal. But Bailey, for whatever reason, does not seem to care about all of that, or else finds such enjoyment from applying them, not bluntly nor florid, but simply so. That aspect is maybe the easiest to look over: someone simply doing their job for its own sake. Especially in a freshman one-and-done, highly touted from a celebrity program. Don’t miss it with Amari.

Role Reducers: Priority UDFAs

Craig Porter Jr. (my #33), Adama Sanogo (#38), Terquavion Smith (#36), Justyn Mutts (#42), Ricky Council IV (#43), Taevion Kinsey (#45), D’Moi Hodge (#46)

Here we have a group of undrafted players I had ranked in my top 50. I’m not sure if there’s a common thread here beyond role players who I believe have a shot of being starters, even if miniscule.

All have their quick pitches as NBA role players: Porter Jr. makes sense as a defensive play-maker and creative passer next to a high usage guard. Sanogo if a team wants to run a five-out scheme on either end with a hybrid big. Terq is the obvious, nuclear pull-up shooting threat. Mutts is one of the best passing big wings in the country. Council had perhaps the best slashing tools in college hoops. Kinsey may be the most unusual, a stellar athlete ball custodian type with funky shot. D’Moi Hodge the cleanest role fit, and the most surprising undrafted for that reason as a steals & threes maven.

I mention the concept of “false ceiling” prospects, a term I coined to mean prospect commonly seen as low ceiling but with tougher-to-see avenues to outperform those expectations. I believe this entire group qualifies, let’s run through the list again. Porter Jr. does not make sense as a shotblocker, at 6’2’’ putting up a 5% block rate (one of every 20 opponent two pointers) while only fouling 2.3 times per 40(!!!). Sanogo has rare touch, shooting 77% at the rim on gigantic volume and above average everywhere else. Terq has become underrated as a passer, improving his A:TO from 1.2 to 1.9 and assist rate from 14% to 23%, all while shooting 14 threes per 100 possessions. Mutts is a rare breed, a strength-based wing with soft passing touch, perfect for motion-based, precise systems. Council’s athleticism shines in transition where he can improvise to the hoop for an acrobatic finish, at 1.2ppp on 114 transition attempts. Kinsey played in a lower conference, but that may mask his NBA athleticism, dunking over 200 times across his five college seasons. Hodge is underrated in his aggressiveness, with over 100 rim attempts finished at a 72% rate this past season.

The entire group are sophomores or older and non-premium selections as UDFAs, as it is safe to say you won’t build your team around this group. But if I were to bet on anyone undrafted ending up a useable starter at some point in their careers, it would be from this crew. The avenue to that happening has been laid out roughly in their previous spots, but amplified by further conforming to a reduced role and playing with greater talent around them.

Lessons of the Past

The 2022 draft cycle I spent obsessed with archetypes, attempting to break down the roles on the court into four: 1. Rim Protectors, 2. Connectors, 3. Shotmakers and 4. Engines. As I felt already by the time that draft day arrived, this approach had clear shortcomings. Prospects are not fully formed into their archetypes yet, and flashes of potential can be more important than fully fleshed out skills.

My three biggest misses all came from this too narrow of a sorting process. For Walker Kessler, I zoomed in too far on his inconsistent rim protection footwork technique, missing how he was blocking a gargantuan quantity of shots despite it due to advanced hand-eye coordination, size and effort. He also was able to quiet my mobility concerns by slimming down some, bringing us to another point of analysis: at the ages of prospects, they are still getting used to their athletic bodies.

Jalen Williams is another illustration of this, showcasing a major athletic leap from Santa Clara to the pros. The tape transformed almost overnight, as before when his closeouts lagged and he may have settled as a table-setter, now he looks a full power primary. The signal here was the Combine scrimmages, where J-Dub adapted to a more off-ball slashing role the second he hit the floor, using his plus wingspan to dunk in traffic with ease. The archetypes system over-fit for his Santa Clara role, not adaptive enough to appreciate his flashes of elite versatility.

Finally, a player I was too high on: Johnny Davis. At the risk of reacting too early, Johnny appears at the nexus of both of these points as well. From an archetype approach, JD is interesting. He was super physical in college, capable of some dribbling, passing, shooting, if not dominant anywhere. But he looked like he could carry a large load, and had enough clips of looking like a dynamic athlete, all the while fighting hard on the defensive end. The script has completely flipped between him and J-Dub, as Davis has been losing on the margins at the first line and without tools to salvage missteps. Where before he looked like a potential to hit in multiple archetypes, now he looks more like a mediocre prospect for each. The difference in athletic and skill profile from NCAA to NBA makes previous roles potentially untenable while also opening up new avenues for what were only flashes before.

Lessons for the Future

My goal this past cycle was to take a more holistic approach to a player’s basketball narrative. Where are they in their own cycle? A draft cycle involves only 6-8 months of new tape to indicate what a player might be for an entire career, and we need to imbue that with the appropriate lack of certainty. Imagination is the name of the game for draft work, something I’ve reminded myself constantly this past year, and helped me to be more comfortable with the one-eye-closed upside swings. Similarly, I have been keener to extrapolate those flashes out, as a player’s developmental trajectory can be as dynamic as their playing style.

The one item that remains elusive to me is projecting athletic profiles to the future. Already in Summer League I see a potential miss in Keyonte George, adapting quickly to weight loss with a more explosive playing style than we saw at Baylor or IMG. Athletic projection, again, a source of my miss on all of Kessler, J-Dub and (in the other direction) Johnny Davis, requires a technical level of biomechanical knowledge I have not attained. We have in our sights a theme for the 2024 cycle: how does the body develop amid intense athletic demands, and how can you tell who can incorporate these changes better than others? Stay tuned.

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“Bodies on the floor, carnage…and a bucket” was the play-by-play description for what could have been any given Alyssa Thomas highlight: Sensing an opportunity, she dove on the floor, nearly took out a ref, all to punch the ball ahead to a teammate for an easy transition two.  

Thomas’ play-style may be different than expected given her statistical output: she is a triple double machine, claiming seven of the most recent eight in the WNBA and the first ever back-to-back in history. She is reliable of a producer as you can find in basketball right now, first in the league in not just assists but also rebounds, steals.

Thomas combines the aesthetic peak of basketball with its most practical elements. She has access to all the creativity the sport has to offer, but is obsessed with finding the most direct route to do so.

Take this recent clip, for example. Facing a significant advantage on a jump ball and spotting a teammate with a lead to the open court, Alyssa straight-up volleyball spikes the ball.

Thomas produces across the court despite being a subpar scorer by efficiency. She puts up 15 points per game, mostly coming from her signature push-floater or bruising to the line. In spite of this, there is little she cannot do on the court. She thrives as the conductor of creative, functional offense, stalwart, buttressed by her rare combination of un-moveability off her spot and surprising mobility for her strength. It feels unfair to tie Thomas to any player comps, as she has adapted to a new basketball language of her very own.

AT is able to break down her opponents by accepting and having access to all kinds of possibilities. Calling Alyssa Thomas unpredictable feels like a misnomer, as she seems very aware of where she’s going ahead of time, but can’t tell you. In this way, she is unprecedented in her unpredictability. Playing against her must feel like the most complex cup game of all time, as at any given moment she can duck into the middle of the court to access her floater or a lay-in or pass – and this is key – fully fluent with either hand be it lobs, hit-aheads, pocket passes, you name it.

Let’s break down how she does it.

High-Value Assists

Thomas in particular is the queen of high-value assists. Always in control of pace and with the strength and handle to take her time, she waits for the right moment for daylight to open before hunting out not just a pedestrian pass, but one that will create a lay-up.

While most of her assists to open layups happen in transition, Thomas is able to create offense out of nothing simply due to her timing and passing accuracy, as well as using every tool available to her.

My favorite half-court assists of hers are offensive tips to her teammates: it only takes a moment of daylight for AT to knock the ball sideways to a nearby finisher. But she also is so savvy with her delivery of what would be otherwise pedestrian looks so as to make a player open simply by receiving it. This is how she is able to be a league-best conductor without her own primary scoring, but more weapons are arriving in the next sections.

Defense to Offense

This is why she’s a beast in transition as well, as trustworthy of a 3-on-2 or 2-on-1 break leader as you can find. I would be terrified to play poker against Alyssa, as she often is so far ahead of her opponent’s timing she is able to even pick up her dribble early, seemingly toying with the opponent to exaggerate her passing dominance.

The league leader in steals, Thomas does not have the best handle in the open court but is hyper-aware of the space she has to operate. The term proprioception comes to mind, meaning awareness of body in space, as she rotates at the perfect time to swipe the ball, all well setting up the fastbreak.

Once again her passing accuracy shines, as she would be an excellent quarterback: Thomas is urgent but never rushes, able to sling a hit-ahead just above opponent arms, softly landing in her teammates’ bread basket for the finish. It is difficult to write about these without sensationalist language, as she truly rarely forces it despite the frequency of transition possessions. You can’t force it if your accuracy is unmatched. We see this point validated in not just her league leading assist tally, but 95^th percentile assist to turnover rate of 2.96 to 1.

Screener to Screen Receiver:

This is where things get really fun. Thomas is not just strong, but perhaps the strongest in the entire league. At 6’2’’ and with a plus-plus wingspan, AT screens are as good as any at creating seams in the defense, and has the catch radius to get the ball back quickly after doing so. When you’re as accurate of a passer as Thomas is, and have as good of a sense of schematic timing, it only takes a correctly set screen to get things rolling.

Let’s write down the four options we see in this section’s clips:

• Fake dribble hand-off into pindown handoff screen, then catching on the roll to drop off to dunker spot
• HORNS hand-off to give and go, hitting cutter
• Pick to short roll to kick out
• Pick to receiving ball as roller to then hit cutter

Not included was her ability to use screens on occasion as well. What makes Thomas effective as a conductor is not just her accuracy, but ability to hit a body (cause carnage) and regain composure in an instant to find an open teammate. Combine that with the proprioception bit, ducking and diving through opponents in an instant, and you have an entire half-court offense. Her handle may not be enough to create open rim attempts every possession, but let her touch the ball twice, even in short sequence, and you’ll be much more open than before.

Safety Valve Offense

What takes Thomas to the peaks of the WNBA, however, is her scoring. I mentioned she is not the most efficient, as in the 27^th percentile for effective field goal percentage – quite bad! But that calculation does not include free throws, where Thomas is top 20 in the league in made free throws per game.

She is not just physical but seeks it out wherever she can, able to wedge space for herself where there doesn’t appear an angle. The free throw percentage is just okay at 73%, but, in combination with her ability to manufacture looks when she needs to, present her team with a last ditch “safety valve” option on offense.

Most famously, AT switched shooting from left to right after a mid-career shoulder injury. She is now capable of launching her signature push-floater from either shoulder, up to around the free throw line, when the rest of the offense stagnates. While her last resort scoring provides a valuable outlet for her team, it tanks her shooting, at its lowest mark from the field since her second season in the league.

Alyssa Thomas, The Leader

Alyssa Thomas is just now scratching the surface of what, well, Alyssa Thomas looks like as the primary conductor of an offense. While she branched out over the years next to former MVP Jonquel Jones, the Sun offense is now truly revolving around AT. Her combination of skills, whether it body control combined with physicality, creativity matched with passing accuracy, or simply bouldering through traffic to the rim, Thomas not only maximizes her own tools but those of her teammates.

That is where we see the Sun, unfortunately losing Brionna Jones for the year, compensating with the surging DiJonai Carrington and Rebecca Allen, finding her footing. DeWanna Bonner upping her three point volume. Natisha Hiedman struggling so far but still contributing with passing and occasional tough shotmaking. It is tough to count out the Sun, and Alyssa Thomas + a crew of toolsy complements is why.

The post Alyssa Thomas: Carnage and a Bucket appeared first on Swish Theory.

Not only will this piece analyze their games up to this point, but also give home remedies to fix what has gone astray. Developmental time when you enter “the league” is highly variable, dependent on draft slot, training staffs and existing personnel. But these players are often already a season behind given poor fitting one-and-done campaigns. Let’s see if we can’t help to set the new crews off on the right foot.

Dereck Lively (RSCI #2, Pick #12 to Dallas Mavericks)

Lively has perhaps the largest discrepancy between strengths and weaknesses in this class, and it wasn’t always clear Duke knew which was which. His up and down season included an early season benching, no longer starting as of the second week of January, but was able to bounce back by season end. His offensive toolset paled in comparison to the more versatile Kyle Filipowski, but defensive dominance is perhaps better suited for the pro game.

My favorite trait of Lively’s is his complete discipline on the defensive end of the court. Watching his pre-college tape alerts one to how this is: playing next to also-elite rim protector Jalen Duren in AAU, Lively learned to move all about the court and have an impact, not just stand near the hoop. Controlled aggressiveness has always been the name of the game for the seven-footer: a description likely worth a lottery pick at face value. His 5.2 fouls per 40 minutes I attribute more to just how many actions he covered, and not unprecedented in elite rim protector prospects (see: Joel Embiid’s 5.8 per 40).

The offensive end is limited in the strictest sense of the word. He is limited in that he has zero post moves and poor touch with the ball, but is able to find areas of value regardless. Returning again to his two-big lineup days, Lively is excellent passing to the interior, a coveted trait for a player of his size. He is able to seek passing windows for drop offs, even occasionally dribbling once or twice to create the space. He truly reminds one of Boston’s Robert Williams III in his ability to let go of the ball quickly despite zero shooting gravity. Expect him to be effective at dribble hand offs as well as empty side pick and rolls, anywhere he will be less rushed with a gap to create even a little.

Rookie Year Remedy: Rim First, Always

There is plenty to like about Lively as an NBA player, #8 on my board. But to insure he sets off on the right path, it’s important to tie him to his livelihood: the rim. Lively is an excellent roamer, but his size and technique better suits a hedge and recover big. If there is one area Lively lacks on defense, it is rim-first approach: he prefers to hunt out the action regardless of where it is. Instilling rim-first defensive principles is essential to him reaching that lofty All-Defense potential, an item Duke failed to preach, harmed by his inconsistent role.

While there was all kinds of hubbub about Lively’s three point shooting potential leading up to the draft, that is a highly unrealistic outcome in my mind for a 60% free throw shooter who made *1* midrange shot all season. In his rookie year with Dallas, Lively should be either 1. In the dunker’s spot, or 2. Hitting a body and rolling to the hoop, at any given point. Oftentimes at Duke he looked in no man’s land, setting a screen into a pre-failed action: that will not be the case with Luka, and makes it all the more important to know exactly where to space.

Brice Sensabaugh (RSCI #49, Pick #28 to Utah Jazz)

It is difficult to understand how Sensabaugh was ranked so low coming out of high school, or why he came off the bench for Ohio State. He has every sign of a unique scoring talent, eating up midrange space as a prospect to then let the feathery touch do the rest of the work. The defense needs work, but that is often the case for premier scoring talents like Brice.

First of all, the numbers – Sensabaugh shot 172 midrange attempts and made just short of half of them. Only Grant Williams and Marcus Morris exceeded his midrange volume and efficiency, and Brice had only 18% of his makes assisted compared to 50% for Grant, 43% for Morris. There is a good case to be made for Brice as the best midrange scorer in recent NCAA history.

So then, why did he fall to the 20s?

The defense, at times, is indeed indefensibly bad. Worst of all is the assignment confusion, a threat to his NBA playing time when player movement is ramped up to a far greater degree. Counteracting this is his defensive rebounding, where his rates of securing boards looks indeed like athletic wings, similar to that of Paul George or Miles Bridges in college. Brice is a big body, and knows how to leverage it in a timely manner when locked in. This gives us hope.

The passing is the other nitpick, and much more nitpicky. Passing is more context dependent than defense at a college setting, and Sensabaugh’s unique scoring traits make him a square peg in round hole for most traditional systems. I saw plenty of talent in him moving the ball, particularly adept at understanding how to make even a shallow drive into a kick. He will never be an offensive conductor, but you want Sensabaugh to finish plays anyways, rather than start them.

Rookie Year Remedy: Work From the Corners

The biggest benefit to Sensabaugh in an NBA system will be how he can no longer be the primary focus of opposing defenses. Sensabaugh struggles to get first steps on opponents, but is excellent at maximizing whatever margin is available. If he can lean into a spot up first, midrange craft second approach as a rookie, he can leverage his teammates’ scoring to help his own, and passing.

On defense as well, keeping Sensabaugh away from the action and close to the tin for rebounding purposes is the way. He will certainly be targeted in switches, where it will be essential for him to stay disciplined – his low steal rate and fairly high foul rate point to a poor decision-maker as it comes to trying to play-make on defense. He can be often found swiping where he shouldn’t, determined to compensate for lack of foot speed.

Utah has a bit of a challenge in finding how to maximize Sensabaugh’s unique talents, but Brice playing inside of his game can help shorten that journey.

Noah Clowney (RSCI #74, Pick #21 to Brooklyn Nets)

Clowney had less of a flawed season and more of a narrowly-defined one. He accepted a role player position at Alabama as a top-100 recruit in Nate Oats’ structured system, a three-and-D power forward between prized Brandon Miller and veteran Charles Bediako. Clowney filled the role admirably, putting up the fifth best Box Plus-Minus grade of any high major freshman.

Watching Noah’s pre-NCAA tape you see mostly the same, but there is intrigue along the fringes. The type that certainly tipped the Brooklyn Nets into seeing more. Most notably, I think Clowney can pass. Not guard-level passing, but adequate for a big, reminding me a bit of Minnesota’s Josh Minott the draft before. He cannot dribble beyond once or, maybe, twice, but when he does he makes the right play more often than you’d expect (for someone who can’t really dribble). The technique needs work, but you can see the outlines of a viable DHO conductor. Clowney got very little practice with the ball on a stacked Bama team, so it’s difficult to say what the ceiling is.

The archetype is swell: Clowney can block some shots, hit some threes, and use his size, strength and touch to finish inside and rebound. Unfortunately, his shotblocking is closer to good than great, three point shot closer to bad than good. But what I was most impressed with is how decisive Noah is when he gets the ball near the basket. His one-step craft to finish is indeed good, and, as Clowney is still not even 19, may end up very good.

Rookie Year Remedy: Play the 5

Now, I just pointed out Clowney lacks high-end polish and consistency across the court…you want him to take on more responsibility? Yes.

Clowney has the physique to hang in the interior, if not the discipline yet. But as a middle-of-the-pack squad lacking a big man floor spacer, the Nets can do worse than giving Clowney some bench run. As the five man, Clowney can refine his interior discipline, often caught contesting on his feet but leaning too far over, allowing his opponent to draw easy fouls. Rep those traits out of him while you have the chance.

Additionally, Clowney with a clean paint will allow him to experiment in ways he was prohibited at Alabama. Despite not being close to a focal point of the offense, Clowney had 27 dunks (6 more than Brandon Miller) and shot a very strong 64% on non-dunk rim attempts. He only took 25 midrange shots but hit half of them, encouraging that his touch is more effective inside the arc. As some more encouraging stats, when Clowney played without Bediako on the floor his free throw rate rose from 0.27 to 0.64; his rim rate from 35% to 56%; his rim finishing from 67% to 74%. He shot fewer threes but gained efficiency everywhere.

Clowney is unlikely to ever be a starting center or power forward, but by letting him run as a backup 5, he may improve both skills. He is strong enough at his core to eventually handle the more physical assignments, let him prove his offense against that.

Cam Whitmore (RSCI #12, Pick #20)

 Whitmore is a high-flying tank, a tornado of activity with a punch, punch to the rim. It’s easy to mix metaphors for a player whose movements make little sense. He’s a stout 232 but has one of the quickest first steps in the class. He is a power mover who can also chop his legs. I would not like to guard Cam Whitmore.

So, why am I lower on him? Well, first of all, he’s quite predictable. Whitmore loves his left, almost always utilizing a combination of a lefty in and out, crossover into either pull-up or straight line acceleration to the rim. The issue is the complexity and flexibility: despite the magic of his movements, it is still tough at the size of a torso to chain together quick moves.

On top of that, Whitmore does not seem like a very creative player. Much of his pre-NCAA production came from transition play, which, yes, that absolutely should be a priority of his NBA game. But he also misses open passes, some obvious rotations, and generally prefers to go from point A to point B without a flexion point in between.

I’m optimistic on him being a plus defensive player simply due to the significance of his physical tools; that quick of a step at that size is going to get blocks and especially steals. Steals are as valuable of a task one can complete outside of putting the ball in the basket. But when it comes down to papering over all the little items opponents can exploit in high-stakes matchups, it is not clear Whitmore is up for the task.

Rookie Year Remedy: Keep It Simple

I run the risk of being low on Whitmore in the same way I was too low on Bennedict Mathurin: NBA teams will be able to cover up for his weaknesses by getting him in his optimal spots. In particular, a young team like the Houston Rockets should be more than happy to run with Whitmore on the wings. Fortunately, he will not need to create many advantages on his own when playing off of Amen Thompson, passing extraordinaire, allowing him to catch the ball when already downhill. The combined pace and vertical talent of those two will be extremely difficult to contain in the open court.

The defensive end might be trickier, on a team that had the second worst points allowed per possession last season. The Rockets still lack an identity on that end, but might do best to lean into their hectic event creators of Tari Eason and Amen as steal mavens: a constantly roaming crew would also make the transition into transition easier.

The minutes breakdown in Houston will be fascinating to watch this year. But they have at their disposal, now, such a dynamic of talent that in order to take advantages of their weakness you may have to first disable their advantages. Leaning into Houston’s collective strengths with quite the store of talent will yield some unexpected results; many of those involve Whitmore as a major player.

Dariq Whitehead (RSCI #1, Pick #22 to Brooklyn Nets)

There was not a single prospect who deserved to have his season tape thrown out than Dariq. With a foot injury that required surgery before the season which never properly healed and a lower leg strain mid-season, Whitehead never looked close to his usual self. It is painful to even watch him try to move around the court wearing a Duke jersey; I cannot imagine what it felt like. Here’s hoping he undergoes the recovery he deserves.

To imagine what he might look like on the other side, we resort more to his high school and AAU tape. Whitehead was arguably the best player in all of high school basketball, rated first in the entire class by RSCI as well as winning the Naismith High School Player of the Year Trophy, back to back national championships and the MVP award for the McDonald’s All-Star Game. While Whitehead’s teams often featured other NBA-level talent, he stuck out consistently for his poise under pressure and contributions across the court.

Dariq is not without flaws as a prospect, but may be without any significant enough to call a true weakness. His athleticism is tilted more towards pace and balance than burst and power, but he is still able to win on first step and dunk above rim protectors here and there. I would advise against putting him on the quicker guards, but he should have no issue finding a suitable assignment on the wing. Whitehead simply contributes across various axes: his constant activity and nose for advantages means locating rebounds, rising and firing in a crowd, excelling at connecting passing but capable of throwing advantage-creating ones as well.

Whitehead has long been a favorite of mine to watch, and I feel a disservice to him in not being selected until the 20s. The NBA draft, first and foremost, is about imagination, even if it’s not obvious on the surface. Whitehead may not recover his full athleticism, but he was always more of a problem-solver than nuclear athlete anyways.

Rookie Year Remedy: Pindowns Galore

For once, it would be nice if things were made easy for Whitehead. From essential connector piece as a HS underclassman to shouldering the usage load as a HS upperclassman to just trying to stay on the court at Duke, he has fought for all he’s taken. I am proposing making it easier on Dariq.

My two favorite Whitehead weapons are the quickness with which he can get his shot off and his ability to stay upright on drives. Wrap those up with some decisive and creative playmaking and you have yourself an excellent play finishing prospect, especially if he stands at 6’6’’. I trust Whitehead perhaps as much as any in the class to make a dribble-pass-shoot decision off the catch while moving through a crowd, so here’s hoping that’s the desired destination for the Nets in getting Dariq up to speed.

Jordan Walsh (RSCI #17, Pick #38 to Boston Celtics)

If you got by Jordan Walsh, no you didn’t. Jordan Walsh has about as ideal as possible recovery tools on the defensive end. Inevitably, even the shutdown defenders lose a step to a true-blue offensive star. The basketball court is tilted towards the offense as the holder of the first move, and how little space it takes for many to get a shot off. But after the gap is created, Walsh will be as good as any at crawling back into perfect position; in fact, many of his steals and blocks came from what would be considered a disadvantageous position.

Walsh is the best shutdown defender prospect in this class, and the best I can remember in recent classes. Unfortunately for Walsh and other such as Usman Garuba, being a lockdown defender does not always guarantee playing time, especially if, as both of them are, you are an offensive liability.

Jordan almost certainly will be a negative on offense, but I am here to argue there is a chance he will not, and perhaps much greater than you think. The shot is where we start, inaccurate but not broken, as there is a lot to like: a simple one-two motion, decently set feet, but inaccuracy due to spatial issues (he throws inaccurate passes here and there) and a bit exaggerated of a form. Both can be fixed by corner three reps, as his 71% from the line, 28% from three and 36% on deep twos point to 33%+ on open threes potential.

The more significant reason for optimism lies in his tape from Link Academy. While inactive most of his time on offense for Arkansas, at Link he was the key to both their transition offense and connecting their half-court offense. He looked far more confident on the move, as with the Razorbacks could get overwhelmed in catch and drive situations. But I see a real passing threat as Walsh is highly creative for a wing and has the athletic tools to take advantage, or else get to the rim. Time to think at Arkansas meant overthinking, but again we see a lane for some offensive value.

Rookie Year Remedy: Just Belong

Walsh gets my most esoteric suggestion, as he simply needs to relax and trust the system on offense. That will be much easier, hopefully, in an ironed out NBA system with a longer view on Walsh’s role. Boston acquiring an early second round draft pick to take the defensive stud – a type they are long familiar with – is encouraging that he will be brought along at the right pace. Obvious from the tape, Walsh loves technique and being in the right place: the Celtics’ infrastructure should encourage that.

To get more concrete about the basketball court, Boston could use some additional front-court athleticism, particularly attacking the rim. Walsh is a stellar vertical athlete, clocking a 33 inch standing vert on top of a 7’1.75’’ wingspan. He is always vigilant on the court, and letting him leak out early in transition could do wonders for his offensive confidence. It may be ugly here and there, but when you have a talent of high athleticism with some creative potential, ugly may be worth putting up with. When remembering we are talking about a potential All-Defense level defender, the rewards of even slight offensive improvements could be spectacular.

Nick Smith Jr (RSCI #3, Pick #27 to Charlotte Hornets)

Nick Smith Jr., perhaps more than anyone on this list, put everything on tape at Arkansas that you would want, if you look for it. Most notably, in his 25 point, 6 assist, 4 steal, 3 rebound, 1 block masterpiece versus Kentucky, or similar 20+ point outputs with stats elsewhere versus Alabama, Georgia, UNC Greensboro and Oklahoma. In these games we see the sell for NSJ, quite obvious: he can score on the ball as easily as off the ball, and will work as hard as he can to be positive everywhere else. The passing is the “swing skill” – if he is indeed the PNR maestro he appeared before Arkansas, which I think he might be, Nick has real All-Star upside.

The shot and, more specifically, the touch is where the pitch starts with Smith, lofty for a guard but instead in a player with a 6’9’’ wingspan. That wingspan and touch mean any shot within 12 feet is available as a floater; his vigilance as a scorer and strong technique make him a threat beyond; his ease of fluidity into pull-up make his range endless despite the wiry frame.

As a pure scoring prospect, there are a few items you could ask for that Nick lacks: his first step is okay (made up somewhat by shiftiness), he has little strength (made up somewhat by aggressiveness) and he can be a bit programmatic getting into his actions. But even that is mediated by Nick’s unique head for finding the right action.

Time and again in watching Nick Smith’s tape, his team used him as a sort of offensive cure-all. Need to set up the primary action? He is a suitable custodian for the ball and adept in PNR. Need to come up with a counter quick? Nick is decisive with good enough handle and passing instincts to set up secondary. Shot clock running out? No shot is a bad shot for a shooter of Nick’s level.

Yes, his shooting efficiency was poor at his time with Arkansas. But knee injuries throw off the entire kinetic chain, making splits tough to judge without proper oomf into gather. At EYBL, Smith shot 56% on 8 twos per game and 38% on 5 threes per game. That is, flat out, both elite volume and efficiency, enough to wipe away any doubts. The tape as well shows ideal technique and the ball time and again falling softly off the rim through the net, if touching the rim at all, from every angle and release point imaginable. Buy it.

Rookie Year Remedy: Let Him Take the Hits

I mean this in a quarterback’s sense, as in, it’s tough to get into a rhythm without taking part in the physical aspects of the game. Nick is an aggressive player by nature, a rarity in his aesthetically-minded offensive archetype and beanpole frame. At every level of competition he can be seen helping aggressively when needed (sometimes when not), flailing around the court and picking up a surprising amount of loose balls and even blocks by virtue of activity. Smith struggled to provide this as often at Arkansas as in years prior, limited particularly in his ability to turn corners, previously much quicker.

NSJ needs not just to grow into his frame, but also continue to find ways to maximize his physicality as a way to win when speed does not. Again unusually for type, Smith has proven capable of finishing through traffic, even yards away from the rim with his touch. If he’s able to get to those spots and hold them down more consistently, that touch can do the rest of the work.

Jalen Hood-Schifino (RSCI #20, Pick #17 to Los Angeles Lakers)

The Schifino section might be the shortest as, well, I have the fewest hard takeaways about his game. JHS was extremely unproductive as a freshman with Indiana, in a context I don’t think was particularly unfair to him. While Hood-Schifino looks the part on the court, good stance and technique generally, he is the single least productive one-and-done first round pick in the barttorvik.com database.

JHS stood out at the NBA Combine with his seven-foot wingspan, which, in conjunction with a strong frame makes him a physical presence. However, the physicality stats lag: he only had 4 dunks all season, only rebound 1.6% of opportunities and had very low steal and block rates. He only took 76 free throws and the exact same number of rim attempts. Hood-Schifino survives, rather, on tough shotmaking.

While falling short of Sensabaugh’s midrange dominance, 90 for 216 (42%) is nothing to scoff at, especially considering JHS struggles mightily to create separation. He gets into his shot pocket almost automatically regardless of position, a rare trait. But scoring prospects need easy buckets, and those were few and far between for Jalen. While his finishing touch and creativity is good, he struggled to hit openings, stuck taking difficult rim attempts. This, along with mixed three point results, dropped his true shooting percentage below 50% – a tough pill for a shotmaking prospect.

If, rather, you view JHS as a table-setter, I have qualms as there too. For someone who looks in ready-set position at any given point, Schifino makes a shocking number of careless errors. Whether not executing a pass fully or not concentrating when catching the ball, a 19% turnover rate for someone with fairly basic offensive responsibilities is another red flag.

Finally, the defense. I want my table-setters to get into their opponent’s body, or at least be constantly roaming to use their length. JHS doesn’t really do either of those, evidenced both by his low stock rates and the tape where he’s seen getting disconnected from his man fairly often. The margins are small for this type with plenty of guard competition; JHS’s wingspan stands out, but is he using it?

Rookie Year Remedy: Shoot, Shoot Some More

The promised land for JHS, as well as the Lakers, relies in Hood-Schifino’s tough shotmaking. It is astounding at times how unbothered he is despite have zero breathing room to get a shot off. With a quick, high release, I trust him to get his tough FGA when he wants it, even if easier creation looks never come.

With LeBron on the team, JHS won’t have to table set if he doesn’t need to, and instead can run off of screen after screen to create that separation. His 6.1 threes per 100 possessions will hopefully be the fewest in his career, as 3s > 2s and JHS has no issue launching from distance.

I struggle to see JHS changing his tune as it comes to productive stats as the precedent would be too severe compared to his stats profile at Indiana, but it is still just one season. His pedigree, playing with the top HS and AAU teams in the country, should help him fit in on a win-now team, as he certainly looks like a pro when he steps on the court. But the carelessness is a quick way to be taken out and lose important development reps.

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For this, second piece, I’m looking at “Green Flags Only” prospects, freshmen and sophomore NCAA players who exceeded various statistical minimums and did not see the same kind of linear production decline against the best teams.

With no glaring statistical weaknesses, these prospects do Everything, Everywhere regardless of who they’re playing and at any given moment. The questions we’ll be looking to answer this time are, primarily:

1. Do they have an extra gear to show the special?
2. Will their game translate in the same way against NBA competition?

They were able to produce all over and consistently, but how big are those margins, and where might they dominate? Do they have star potential or just consistency? Do they even have that? The answers varied widely:

Jarace Walker (Houston, 7.7 BPM)

Jarace is a tricky evaluation given the contrasts of the obvious with the dubious. Let’s start there:

• The obvious
  • Jarace is an elite passer
  • Jarace is elite at reading an offense
  • Jarace has elite positioning
  • Jarace can dribble and shoot better than most at his position
• The dubious
  • Jarace can’t get to the rim consistently
  • Jarace doesn’t have much burst
  • Jarace takes a while to leap

The latter qualities were masked by his fantastic athletic testing in a controlled setting, with one of the best verticals at the Combine. But the implementation of that in-game is a question of degree that requires close film watching. Let’s dig in.

Jarace is one of the best processors of what is happening on the court in this class, and, with size, strength and some dribble / pass / shoot skill, is an obvious and safe bet to be positive on an NBA floor.

The obvious is, in fact, so obvious it can be easy to underestimate. At any given point, Jarace makes crosscourt reads look simple, is able to rotate into advantageous spot ahead of NCAA competition, and whips passes to open shooters at the perfect time. He knows how to use eye manipulation to create openings, and understands when the opponent is about to over-rotate.

I have no issue projecting Jarace’s strengths conveying at the next level. At 6’6.5’’ with a 7’2.5’’ wingspan, 97^th percentile standing vert, 83^rd percentile lane agility and 78^th percentile sprint scores at the combine, Walker certainly has the athletic build to capitalize on them.

His statistical profile was elite, particularly his combination of 12% assist rate, 6.2% block rate, 2.2% steal rate and 38% shooting on 138 midrange attempts, the majority of which were unassisted. Being able to hit difficult shots while also reading the floor at a high level on both ends is a good formula for success. Bobby Portis at Arkansas is the only comparable freshman for that combination of stats (if you relax the criteria, Jabari Parker, Terrence Jones, Demarcus Cousins and Mo Harkless appear), another toolsy, scheme-versatile big wing/small big but not the level of passer as Jarace.

So, Jarace’s floor is safe – how about his ceiling?

That is where the dubious comes in. The combination of lack of elite burst and longer leaping load time have lead to overreliance on his floater and pull-up, and, for an otherwise highly crafty player, a surprising lack thereof on drives. Without an initial edge even in NCAA against mediocre competition on drives, Jarace is often forced to bail out early, limiting the utility of his passing as well.

The most damning indicator is his mere 0.24 rate of free throws to shot attempts: this would be the worst mark among that comp set I listed above, with Mo Harkless as closest at 0.33 and Demarcus Cousins at the peak of 0.73.

While we’re being greedy, that lack of burst limits what could have been a DPOY-degree of upside on defense. Jarace is always aware of long rotations he could make, but not always capable of making them physically. He is always first to spot a development, contributing to elite stock rates regardless, but could have been a true monster with a more rapid first step and a bit more agility.

Where we are left is an obviously great connector prospect who also has shotmaking and primary distributor upside, in addition to some rim protection ability. That is an extremely safe bet in the top 10. If he is able to become a little bit quicker and a little more mobile, he could easily clear top 5 value.

Jordan Hawkins (UConn, 7.4 BPM)

The proof of Jordan Hawkins being NBA-ready also hits you over the head: he was the best player on a national championship team where he filled his role admirably. That role also slots easily into any team, being off-ball centric, as scalable as you want.

The primary selling point for Hawkins is the shot, particularly off of movement. Off the catch he took 222 threes and made 91 of them (41%). His 7.6 points per game shooting off the catch was top 20 in the country, and the primary kill shot for the nation’s best team. Hawkins flew around screens and reorganized in an instant, always committing to his follow through.

That shot will translate to the next level, as will Hawkins’ general approach to the game. He plays very hard, more physical than you’d expect for what is often a more cosmetic archetype. The issue is he is small, listed at 6’5’’ but often unable to deter shots from even smaller wings. He gets in the right position but it often does not matter, begging questions of whether he would be targeted in high stakes NBA circumstances.

He also has little star path outside of his shotmaking. The handle is not good for a guard, though he is savvy enough to limit those occasions to when necessary. This brings me to my favorite part of Hawkins’ game: he is not afraid to attack whatever space the opponent gives him, whether it’s into a midrange pullup or all the way to the basket. The tools to get there or finish when he arrives are not fantastic, but his shooting gravity is enough that the lanes should be wide.

I would love to consider Hawkins a top 20 prospect simply by how he plays the game and how reliable it is to be useful to an NBA team, and even good ones. Off-ball scoring at his level without obvious vulnerabilities makes him a fit with all 30 NBA teams. But when searching for star ceilings, I am less compelled to see it in Hawkins unless he reaches a comfort level with the handle to seek out more midrange opportunities. It’s possible, but not my favorite bet considering a loaded top 20.

Cason Wallace (Kentucky, 7.0 BPM)

No player has a wider gap between value on the court and scarcity of skillset than Cason. The value proposition is strong: he can defend any guard or small wing, sniffing out actions and making as consistent an impact as any guard in the class; he can provide some offensive value all over, whether passing, midrange floaters, screensetting, catch and shoot. But when it comes to grasping for rarity, I struggle to see as immediate of star scarcity as others in the lottery.

Let’s take a step back. Cason Wallace is a very, very good basketball player. It is rare to have a guard connector prospect of his ability in a class. He is as sound as you’ll find as far as hand placement and positioning, surely obnoxious to be guarded by. He is more didactic on offense, a table setter with some athletic and dribble pass shoot skills to rely on.

I am sure Wallace will be a good NBA player. The question we are here to ask, uncomfortable but necessary near the top, is how rare his qualities are.

The rarest aspect of his game is simply its combination of factors, and why he is a clear top 20 prospect in my mind. But the dominant factors may be lacking when benchmarking against odds of being a top 2 player on a title team. It’s a high bar, but one we have to focus on.

There are many avenues for Cason to reach that, all of which are debatable in likelihood:

• Ride the floater to primary or secondary scoring
• Continue to progress as an offensive conductor
• Add additional finishing craft to broaden scoring opportunities
• Be that good of a shutdown defender

I struggle, however, to see any of these avenues as likely in their own right, even if surely will progress at least somewhat. With the recent offensive explosion where 110 offensive ratings are pedestrian, I struggle to see where Cason stands out (again, relative to star upside). His handle and creativity attacking the rim are fairly straightforward, indicated by his 0.22 free throw to field goal attempt rate and only 24% of attempts coming at the rim.

Wallace’s stats exceed dominant thresholds for connector equity: 2.0 assist to turnover ratio, 24% assist rate, 3.7% steal rate and 54% true shooting is a pristine resume for a high major freshman (Dennis Smith Jr., Wade Baldwin, Jrue Holiday and Shabazz Napier are only ones in vicinity) but I want to find the easy. Cason is highly likely to make everything a bit harder for his opponent, but I struggle to see the dominant.

You know what, as I write this and review the clips…you can become a star through the lack of mistakes as well. Cason has that path. It’s not common to reach it through simply doing every little thing on the court you’ve asked well without a truly dominant area, but maybe that’s exactly where Cason Wallace’s dominance lies.

Gradey Dick (Kansas, 6.5 BPM)

My quick and easy pitch for Gradey is this: he will be your team’s best shooter, and not your worst defender, maybe not even second worst. But we can begin with the shot.

Gradey has all the hallmarks of what I look for in a sharpshooter: smooth and consistent release; high peak and quickly; hunts for it off movement; seems to enjoy shooting it. He is a very tough cover, able at 6’6.25’’ and 6’8.75’’ wingspan to shoot it over opponent off the move, especially with his quirky shot. He sets it through his gather at about the release height, so when he begins the second motion it’s quick and effortless. Think Klay Thompson’s but with less dip and a bit more mechanical.

The handle is the obvious swing skill. Dick is quite coordinated at his size, also evidenced by his active choreography on Tik Tok, able to take advantage of his shooting gravity but ducking through tight closeouts and resetting into his shot. For that reason I have quite high hopes in him as a midrange pull-up threat, simply too good of a shooter and too nimble on his feet to not be. The handle is simple but functional, with reason to think more reps will mean more progress (simply waiting for the ball was enough to fill it up at Kansas as the primary shooting threat on the team).

On defense, he uses his length exceptionally well and, more importantly, is very obviously always seeking out a way to have an impact. When he swats to block shots it’s ferociously, when he sees a loose ball he dives, and he has the coordination to maximize his length where you wouldn’t expect.

Gradey Dick, to me, is a very safe top 10 pick. Shooting is shooting, is shooting, and Gradey is as confident as I can get in a 40%+ high volume spot up threat. To then have confidence in some defense, some handle, lots of effort on top of that? In my opinion, there is a good case for him as early as #5.

Anthony Black (Arkansas, 5.9)

Ant is an obvious candidate to stick in the league as a physical connector. As Arkansas’ driving force (especially when Nick Smith Jr. was out) – the team was +22 net rating with Ant on compared to +9 with him off – Black put up stats similar to Bruce Brown as a freshman at Florida:

Anthony Black / Bruce Brown

• 22% / 22% USG
• 55% / 56% TS
• 21% / 21% AST
• 1.3 / 1.6 A:TO
• 3.4 / 2.9 STL%
• 1.9 / 1.9 BLK%
• 93-148 (63%) / 90-144 (63%) at rim
• 32% / 21% midrange
• 71% / 74% FT%
• 30% / 35% 3P%
• 58 / 41 FTAR

A more physically daunting Bruce Brown is about as close of a comparison as I can get in this class, a player constantly on the swerve and able to exert themselves no matter the task. Not only are they toolsy, but take pride in being so. Black can be seen throwing his body against whatever opponent is nearest, never turning down an opportunity to set a flare screen or tag a roller: Ant is a gamer.

It’s not all perfect, and, much like Bruce Brown, it may be worth asking what the star upside is even as appreciating all that makes them such useful players. Ant has many routes to the rim, excellent at alternating footwork to parry past second line defenders. But he often struggles to get past that first one, shiftier than he is bursty and more functional in handle than magician.

The shot isn’t great, as a possession ending in an Ant Black three is unlikely to be good offense in the NBA, but Ant’s ability to stay on a swivel will give him opportunities to connect. His adherence to right-playism means if he’s open he’ll be taking the ball to the basket, if others are open he’ll be slinging it as soon as he can, if there’s a wide to keep the play going in your favor, he’ll sniff it out.

The offense could be a struggle in the wrong system, one that either tries to let him beat his man off the dribble bringing the ball up or doesn’t allow him to move throughout the half court. But I love betting on reaction time x size x skill, as Ant will have endless opportunities to make a difference. He’ll find his way on the floor, but may need to strike the right conditions to truly become a star.

Kobe Bufkin (Michigan, 5.8 BPM)

Of anyone on this list, Bufkin feels like could belong on the Whiteboard prospect list. His dynamic trait is his driving ability, with long stride lengths and finishing craft. He is particularly adept at finishing from oblique angles while extending past his defender, shooting past and pushing or finger rolling the ball to land gently above the rim. That is an NBA level skill.

I would feel much better about that selling point if it were paired with a complete game as Bufkin’s presence on this list suggests. He’s close, an adept connective passer and generally active across the court. But his lack of any physical presence on the interior presents an obvious point of weakness that could be a risk in high leverage matchups.

Bufkin only weighs 187 pounds, unable to hold space with a lanky frame or catch up after being screened. That makes the sell tougher for a combo guard who can likely only guard true point guards. But Bufkin is still a three level scoring threat, efficient on solid volume everywhere, and perhaps just good enough of a shooter and passer to be that difficult to cover.

Players with the ability to score from three, midrange pull-ups or drives to the rim are always coveted. It may also be possible for Bufkin to add the strength needed to not be targeted by an offense, or use his anticipatory abilities to compensate. I currently have Bufkin slated as a mid-to-late first prospect, though perhaps is the last on my board with true top 3 potential for a good team if things break the right way.

Jett Howard (Michigan, 4.3)

Jett, coach Juwan’s son, made a ton of threes this season. At 14 per 100 possessions, Howard made 37% and self-created one of every four. Funnily enough, watching the tape you could imagine those numbers rising even higher.

Howard is unbelievably comfortable getting into his shot no matter the context. Although not without flaws – we’ll get into those later – he has the exact type of athleticism where he can rebalance into his pocket in an instant no matter from what position. His form is about ideal, following through consistently and dedicated about his footwork.

Adding on to his flamethrower decal, Jett is also an exceptional passer with good handle. He is both accurate and decisive, limited only by his negative first step where his handle is often dedicated to buying time more than taking space.

This all adds up to a dynamo of an offensive player who will be difficult to keep from scoring, regardless of role. He is shy attacking the basket with a narrow frame, but touch is feathery enough that even a 15-foot floater feels like an acceptable shot.

Now, the defense. Jett is the most significant difference between offense and defense of all prospects i’ve covered so far, as limited in physicality he can provide as well as prone to fall asleep or be a step slow getting around screens.

What’s extremely encouraging, and helped me gain comfort with him as a lotto pick is he did show signs of wanting to use his full wing size. His blocks improved from nonexistent to occasional, making up for the small guard count of rebounds. He was also playing on sprained ankles most of the season, looking more present of a presence in his high school years.

I can’t wait to watch Jett Howard in the NBA. His shot would be my favorite in the class if Gradey Dick wasn’t in it, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he ended up its best shooter, or even its best scorer (outside of Wemby). The shooting will stick fast, I just hope the defense is good enough to keep him stuck in.

Amari Bailey (UCLA, 3.9 BPM)

Amari earns the final spot here due to his ability to pop up all over the court, with good defense (2.5% steal rate and 1.4% block rate with few fouls) and adequate passing (15% assist rate, 0.9), rebounding (13% defensive rate, 4% offensive). While he only averaged 11 points per game, he was able to score at the rim (77-118), midrange (37-101) and three (21-54) over 30 games.

Positionally, Amari is a clear combo guard, with defensive ground coverage his calling card. Bailey’s stance is ideal, and as always active is able to pivot from distance to distance in an instant. At only 6’3.25’’ with a 6’7’’ wingspan, there will be big guard/small wing assignments Bailey can’t handle, as opponent could still often shoot over him at the NCAA level. But he will be an exceptional glue guy.

I struggle to see Bailey as worth a pick in the first half of the first round, but could provide a versatile skillset to a competitive team towards the end of the first. The swing skill is the pull-up, looking fluid here and there as Bailey is quite fluid of an athlete overall. The mechanics are fine but inconsistent, as seen in his merely decent percentages. He has starter potential, as I buy him finding time with his activity and really embodying the essence of this category.

The post The 2023 NBA Draft’s “Everything Everywhere” Prospects appeared first on Swish Theory.