But what if he didn’t get any better? What if he just had the ball more? Let’s dig into the numbers to see what’s really going on.

Let’s start with his box score numbers. 28.8 Points per game, 5.3 assists, and 7.0 rebounds per game. Those seem like pretty monstrous box score numbers on their surface, and they are career highs for Brown. However, if we look at his efficiency, we can see it’s below league average. He’s posted a 98 True Shooting+ this season. (Two percent worse than league average) That’s not great for a primary option.

You might say, “Well, he’s taking more difficult shots with Tatum out.” We can look at his Shot Quality, and it is lower this season. But if we look at his Shot Making, we can see he’s basically performing at the same level he’s always been as a shot maker. (Shot making looks at actual vs expected Effective FG% based on shot quality)

What about his passing?

He is averaging a career high in assists. This is another case of just having the ball more. We can see that he’s always been a below-average passer relative to how often he gets to run the offense. The graph shows that he hasn’t improved as a passer, he just has more opportunities. 

“Well, he’s asked to do so much. He’s one of the top two-way players in the league, and an elite defender.” He did make that claim. If only we had a way to look into it with analytics. Oh, wait, we do.

Matchup Difficulty looks at how good the players are that you’re being asked to guard, and Guarded On-Ball% looks at how often you are guarding the player with the ball. We can see that Brown is guarding average players at a below-average rate.

His overall defensive impact metrics have been fine over his career, but nothing special. Here are his career D-LEBRON numbers.

By everything I can measure, Jaylen Brown has not improved this year. He just has the ball more. That he is in the MVP race is absurd. That is the power of the Boston Media machine. The same machine that convinced the public that Marcus Smart should win DPOY a few years ago. LEBRON and EPM WAR are metrics that estimate a player’s overall value over a season. They work by combining their impact per 100 possessions and their total minutes played. This produces their WAR, or Wins Above Replacement. I averaged the two stats together and compared Brown’s average WAR to the other MVP candidates.

SGA – 17.7 (1st)

Jokic – 15.73 (2nd)
Luka – 15.2 (3rd)

Wemby – 13.6 (4th)

Brown – 7.0 (26th)

Brown is not in the same stratosphere as the other MVP candidates. The point of the article isn’t to tell you Jaylen Brown is secretly a bad player, he’s not. But when we look into advanced analytics, he has not improved in a meaningful way. He’s the same player he’s been for years. A low-end All-Star who is very good, just not great. 

The post Did Jaylen Brown get better this year? appeared first on Swish Theory.

At a glance Jerome’s box score makes you raise your eyebrows (12 points a game, 3.6 assists, 50% from three, 123 TS+ not a typo). His efficiency has been absurd this year, posting similar scoring numbers to play finished bigs like Sabonis, Gafford, and his teammate Jarrett Allen. The logical question to ask is “Well is he just standing in the corner being spoon feed wide open looks?” The answer: no. His overall Shot Quality is in the 13th percentile. He’s second in the league in Shot Making Efficiency which is a metric that measures how well you shoot relative to expectation. The takeaway is he’s been extremely efficient on difficult shots. Below you can see his shot diet. You don’t need to be an analyst to see that he’s been automatic regardless of play type.

Viz via nbavisuals.com

The scoring combined with his passing pushed him into the “I need to write an article about him” territory. It’s hard to find bench players who can run an offense but when you do, it can keep you from over-taxing your stars during the regular season. Jerome has been the top bench player in Basketball Index’s Playmaking Talent. This metric takes into account your passing volume, efficiency, versatility, on-ball gravity, and quality of looks generated for teammates. Looking at Playmaking Talent versus how often a player has the ball (Ball Dominance) you can see if a player is making good use of his passing opportunity. In the graph below you can see that Jerome has been not only the best playmaker among bench players but he hasn’t needed the ball as much as his peers.   

(The graph above is filtered down to players that have 250 minutes played this season and have started less than half of their games)

-Viz via bball-index.com

His scoring versatility, efficiency, and playmaking have put him in early conversations for 6MOY. Some regression is expected in regard to his 3-point shooting, but even so, his midrange and rim finishing have been great. On the other end of the floor, his Defensive Playmaking has been fantastic (95th percentile – this is a metric I created that takes into account deflections, steals, blocks, and offensive fouls drawn) and has kept his value near neutral. So far, Ty Jerome has been one of the biggest surprises of the 2024-25 season. 

The post Ty Jerome: Late Bloomer appeared first on Swish Theory.

The usual issue with pumping up a young player that scored a lot on a terrible team is that they often only know how to contribute as an on-ball scorer. When they start playing with better talent, their time spent on-ball shrinks and so does their impact/production. The good news about GG is that he’s already a good off-ball player. He was solid as a spot up option both as a shooter (37% on C&S 3s) and attacking closeout. His combination of size and body control lets him overwhelm smaller players at the rim while slithering around larger rim protectors.

His analytics look great for a first year player. Jackson was a slightly above average offensive player in O-LEBRON (58th% in Basketball Index’s offensive all-in-one metric). He was a good scorer at the basket, posting above average grades in Rim Shot Creation and Rim Shot Making (Shot making metrics look at how you shoot versus expectations via shot quality). He quickly garnered respect off-ball finishing 73rd% in Off-Ball Gravity (This metric looks at how much defensive attention you get). He was lethal on cuts (97th% in Cut PPP) and respectable as a C&S 3pt option (68th% in C&S 3PT Shot Making). 

What makes all this insane is that he’s only 19 years old. Here is the same graph looking at 19 year olds over the last 10 years in the same stats. (Devin Booker and Jayson Tatum for reference)

The metric that put GG on my radar as a potential star is his Drive Foul Rate Drawn%. This stat does exactly what it sounds like, it looks at how often a player is fouled when they drive to the basket. This number is a good proxy for dominance when coupled with a high drive rate. He not only has the highest Drive Foul Rate Drawn% for a 19 year old over the last decade (seven Drives/75 to qualify), only four players posted a better rate this season: Jayson Tatum, Joel Embiid, and Paolo Banchero. Elite company for the young forward.

His off-ball skills combined with his elite foul drawing on drives paint’s a bright future for Jackson. The former 5 star recruit was able to put together a lengthy highlight tape in only 48 games as a rookie. Next season he will benefit from playing alongside elite playmaker Ja Morant, which will hopefully boost his shot quality (35% in Overall Shot Quality). The physical tools are there and the analytics highlight some extreme bright spots. With some more seasoning and improved roster around him, GG Jackson II could soon find himself on his way to an All-Star game.

The post GG Jackson: The Next Second Round Star appeared first on Swish Theory.

The criteria to make the list is that you must have played at least in two rounds, 200 minutes, and averaged at least 20 points per 75 possessions.

1. Donovan Mitchell – CLE – 29.1 Points/75 – 110 TS+ relative to series

Insane playoff scoring runs are nothing new to Donovan Mitchell. His 2021 run with the Jazz is one of the best in the database. During this run, he provided massive scoring volume versus elite defenses in the Magic and Celtics. He was second in points/75 only trailing Jalen Brunson. The lack of scoring punch on the Cavs’ roster made Mitchell’s run even more impressive. Evan Mobley was the only other Cavalier that scored on positive efficiency relative to the series played in. 

2. Nikola Jokic – DEN – 27.2 Points/75 – 112 TS+ relative to series

Jokic was the most efficient primary option in the playoffs after adjusting for scoring environment. He was an otherworldly 19% more efficient than the average scorer in the Nuggets/Lakers series, and 9% more efficient than the average scorer in the Nuggets/Timberwolves series. It’s interesting how he got to those numbers: he was ice cold from three (26%) but scorching from two (62%) and the free throw line (90%). 

3. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander – OKC – 28.4 Points/75 – 106 TS+ relative to series

SGA has shown to be an elite scorer over the last two regular seasons. This year he got a chance to prove it in the postseason and he did not disappoint. His game-to-game scoring production was remarkable. He scored at least 24 points in each of his playoff games. Shai does the bulk of his damage inside the three point line but when he did shoot from distance he connected on 43% of his attempts (3.7 attempts per game). He went bar for bar with Luka from a scoring perspective in the second round, posting almost the exact same score in the model.

4. Jalen Brunson – NYK – 31.4 Points/75 – 93 TS+ relative to series

Brunson is the only player on this list with a negative scoring efficiency relative to the average scorer in the series he played in. A reasonable follow up question to this fact would be why is he on the list. 2001 Allen Iverson is a good comparison; he brought massive scoring volume to the table on bad efficiency but still obviously created a ton of value for his team. With Julius Randle hurt, Brunson was the Knicks’ only offensive initiator. Because of that he was forced into a position where the team needed him to score on volume because of the roster’s lack of shot creation. Brunson rose to the challenge, posting the highest points/75 of any player in the postseason.

5. Anthony Edwards – MIN – 26.0 Points/75 – 103 TS+ relative to series

Ant’s playoff run took over the basketball world for a few weeks. He started off scorching hot, posting the third best Adjusted Playoff Scoring performance of the first round (only trailing Embiid and Dame) and then a strong second round versus the Nuggets. Unfortunately, he went ice cold in the Conference Finals. But the beauty of this model is it helps us combine a rolling boil and an ice cube. And in this case, it resulted in a bubbling simmer good for the fifth best scorer in the postseason.

6. Luka Doncic –  DAL – 27.1 Points/75 – 100 TS+ relative to series

Luka was hampered by injuries throughout this run and was still able to lead his team to the finals. He started off with a rough series versus the Clippers efficiency-wise. In the second round, his efficiency was back to being positive versus the Thunder but his scoring volume was uncharacteristically low (22.5 Pts/75). In the Conference Finals, he had it all working against the Timberwolves’ top defense, recording the best performance in that round per the model. His first Finals appearance bore results somewhere in the middle of his previous rounds (29 Pts/75 in 97 TS+ relative to series)   

7. Jaylen Brown – BOS – 24.7 Points/75 – 104 TS+ relative to series

Jaylen had a remarkably consistent playoff run before slowing down in the Finals. He scored at least 26 points/75 in each of his first three series on positive efficiency relative to that series. He was seventh in points/75 in the playoffs, finishing just ahead of his teammate Jayson Tatum thanks in part to shooting an unreal 81% at the rim on his way to his first championship.

8. Myles Turner – IND – 20.0 Points/75 – 109 TS+ relative to series

Myles Turner’s ability to stretch defenses with his shooting has always been an enticing skill. This postseason we got to see it fully unleashed: he took 5.1 three pointers a game at 45.3%. That type of effectiveness makes the 5-out alignment extremely difficult to deal with. Turner’s efficiency got stronger as the playoffs went on (first round 105 TS+rs, second round 110 TS+rs, third round 113 TS+rs). His ability to synergize with Haliburton as a pick and pop threat makes him a great scoring complement.

9. Karl-Anthony Towns – MIN – 22.3 Points/75 – 103 TS+ relative to series

KAT’s had a similar playoff run to Anthony Edwards in that he started out sensational in the first round, then had a good second round, and finally an abysmal third round. But again this app cuts through the narratives and shows he was the ninth best scorer in the 2024 postseason. Towns has always been a fantastic scorer and functions well as the secondary star.  

10. Tyrese Haliburton – IND – 20.3 Points/75 – 106 TS+ relative to series

Haliburton had a very solid scoring postseason. He struggled in the first round versus the Bucks before going nuclear in the second round against the Knicks (24.2 Pts/75 and a 115 TS+rs). Haliburton is known more for his passing than scoring but separating out the scoring is important for understanding the value of each part of his game.   

Just missed the cut: Pascal Siakam, Kyrie Irving

Link to the free app: https://filippos-pol.shinyapps.io/modern-playoff-scoring-runs

Thanks To Filippos Polyzos for coding the project. Follow him on Twitter @filippos_pol

Follow me @taylormetrics

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