You don’t have to look very far back to find examples of ill-fated pre-draft college seasons resulting in incomplete evaluations come draft day. How many teams regret passing on Jalen Duren and AJ Griffin just one year later? My guess would be quite a few. College basketball is great, but it’s limited. A season really only offers one context, from role to health or surrounding talent. Every cycle we talk about how context matters in projecting forward future NBA roles, so it would make sense that seeing prospects in additional pre-draft contexts gives a clearer picture. 

The only issue with that is, where do you even start? Pretty much every prospect plays high school basketball, but only some of those games come on TV, and some of those games are in the Overtime Elite league, which is like high school, but also not, but also has some actual high school teams playing in the league. 

Then we get to grassroots basketball, more commonly (and I think incorrectly?) referred to as AAU. There are three major shoe circuits, with each having their own events throughout the summer and a few inter-circuit events sprinkled in along the way. On top of the enormous amount of teams scattered across multiple leagues, team rosters and jersey numbers can be more difficult to find than you expect.

All in all, those hurdles make the prospect of scouting pre-college basketball feel a little unapproachable. As I began my yearly summer catch up this year, I figured it was time to finally, truly, dive straight into the wilderness. The result has been a newfound love for youth basketball, though that did come with a few hurdles along the way.

The goal of this piece is to help people who are looking to understand youth hoops find it all a little less overwhelming, while hopefully helping you skip a little legwork. We’ll go through a few of the things I think are foundationally important to understanding the general landscape, and a few helpful resources for when the process becomes confounding.

High School Basketball

At its most basic level, high school basketball is pretty straightforward to understand. The vast majority of schools look a lot like the schools the general public grew up in, large student bodies and a competitive sporting environment. The difference between public and private school in basketball terms is about the same as it is in the real world: they are very similar, with private schools having a few more (financially driven) opportunities.  

The biggest private schools play their own national circuit, NIBC, as a way of garnering greater national exposure. The highest end private schools are littered with NBA talent, but teams like Duncanville, Camden and Wheeler are public schools with three of the best prospects in the class. Top flight private schools or academies have a competitive advantage in their depth and national presence, but the high end talent is relatively spread out over both public and private schools.

Full games are generally easier to find for high school vs grassroots, though the bigger academies like Link or IMG have an embarrassment of riches in that department. For public schools, almost every district has a team that records every game to put on YouTube. If you are lucky, that team has prospects, and now you’ve lost an entire evening to the doldrums of AAAA North Texas high school basketball.

GEICO High School Basketball Nationals

The GEICO Nationals tournament is the best of the best, consisting mostly of private basketball academies like Sunrise Christian and Montverde. Public schools are able to receive an invite, but laws differ from state to state regarding public schools playing national competition or against private academies. 

As a general rule, this is the high school basketball holy grail. At no other event will you find such a dense collection of NBA talent, and the games are aired on National TV (and later uploaded to YouTube via helpful third parties). It’s a great event, one that showcases future lottery picks every season.

State Champions Invitational

The State Champions Invitational is a newer event that was created to showcase state-champion public school programs on a larger scale. Inclusion is still dependent on the aforementioned state laws on national competition, but the event is always stacked with high-end talent. These games are aired on ESPN and their family of networks, but are more difficult to find in the Youtube ether. Hopefully, as the event gains more attention and a larger public audience, that changes.

Overtime Elite

The reputation of Overtime Elite precedes itself with a billing as the next great basketball developmental program. While there are continued questions as to OTE’s future viability as a pre-draft destination (especially when compared to more established, pro-oriented programs like the G League Ignite and the NBL Next Stars), their viability as a pre-college developmental environment should not be questioned. 

Their site is clean, they have basic and legible stats, and their games are often available on Youtube or Amazon Prime, with a direct from the game box score. That kind of accessibility is unfounded in this space, and something that gives OTE a leg up in the high school basketball world.

Grassroots Basketball

Oh, the unknown. Grassroots basketball is a bit of a black hole at times, but with each passing year a new resource pops up to make things a little bit brighter. The scene is dominated by three major circuits, where teams play against each other in circuit events throughout the summer. 

There are leagues for nearly all ages with 17U meant to consist of players entering their senior year of high school, though some players choose to play up a year (and in the case of AJ Dybantsa, dominate while doing so). Sometimes the only tape you are able to find on Youtube is two years old from when they played 16U, but film is film, I will not discriminate. 

There are quite a few independent teams that are not a part of either shoe circuit, but will commonly play events like Who Wants The Smoke where they match up against shoe circuit clubs. Which circuit is which matters really only in what teams will play at which event, trying to find worthwhile value in comparing competition or talent level feels unproductive. Each league has their fair share of talent, though one may get more attention than the rest. 

Really, what matters most is what teams play on which circuit. Each circuit has their own nuances in structure but when you boil it down, film is still film. Thankfully selectbasketballusa.com made a helpful list of the teams in each league shown below.

Nike EYBL

The Nike Elite Youth Basketball League has long been seen as the cream of the crop, and for good reason. Their track record of producing NBA talent is unparalleled in the space, and while it has become more competitive that track record of dominance is noteworthy. This year, eight of the top ten RSCI recruits played on the EYBL circuit, with top pick contenders Ron Holland, Matas Buzelis, Isaiah Collier, DJ Wagner, Justin Edwards, Omaha Biliew and many others. The roster is deep.

Adidas 3SSB

The Adidas 3 Stripe Select Basketball circuit is well established with a lineage of NBA talent. While not as publicly discussed as EYBL, 3SSB has a deep roster of high major talent led by T10 recruit Ja’Kobe Walter, with Dink Pate, Baye Fall, Reed Sheppard, TJ Power and (personal favorite) KJ Lewis. Overall, a solid league with decent tape accessibility, though their official site does leave much to be desired. 

Under Armour UAA

The Boys Under Armour Association is the final leg of the well known circuits, with 3ssb being its closest comparison. Led by potential lottery pick Stephon Castle, UAA boasts yet another deep roster of potentially impactful freshmen like Caleb Foster, Elmarko Jackson, Blue Cain and more. Unfortunately, compared to the other leagues team/roster info can be incredibly difficult to find. On the plus side, the Middlesex Magic youtube page is a treasure trove of tape, like finding an oasis in the desert. 

New Balance Pro16

The New Balance Pro16 league is the newest of the four circuits, and while they may not have as much established, highly ranked prospects, the competition remains strong. Gehrig Normand and Dylan James are the two RSCI T100 prospects on the circuit with a growing collection of future prospects. Internet resources remain limited but are comparable with the bigger leagues.

Resources

Now we have established the general framework of the leagues we are working with, it’s time to dig a little deeper. Youth basketball is a mess of individual leagues and conferences, finding places with consolidated information is a must. Knowing who to watch, what teams they are on, the numbers they wear and the teammates they have is a more complicated task than it seems.

RSCI Rankings

This is a fairly obvious place to start. This may not be breaking news, nearly every top draft pick is a highly-rated recruit coming out of high school. The rankings are by no means a be-all-end-all, Keegan Murray wasn’t ranked and ended up the fourth overall pick (!), but it is a great starting point. If you look at late risers like Jeremy Sochan and Patrick Williams or sophomore studs like Jaden Ivey and Bennedict Mathurin you will find them ranked in the Top 100 entering college. It’s a long list, but it is chalk full of NBA players throughout it. If you are beginning to create your watch list, the RSCI Top 100 is the place to start. 

MADE Hoops Power Rankings

This is a stupendous resource. The site has a paywall for future class rankings, but their 2023 rankings are public. The actual rankings themselves are nice, but the real draw is that the board lists not only the high school team for each prospect, but the grassroots team as well. That kills an enormous amount of leg work searching google for players and teams, and gives you a great starting point on what high school and grassroots teams should be at the top of your watch list. Great stuff. 

The Season Ticket

Now that you have the players you are looking to see and the teams they play on, The Season Ticket site, and more specifically The Circuit (a subheading on the site) is just about a one-stop -shop for rosters, team schedules and rankings for all age groups, both high school and grassroots (you can even sometimes find a box score!). You can dive into any league you want, though EYBL and 3SSB rosters are the most filled out. 

Finding actual team rosters with numbers and game dates is awesome. It can be incredibly hard to pin down what games players played in, the times they took place, and the teams they played against. Once you pick your team, there should be more than enough here to familiarize yourself with the surroundings. 

Cerebro Sports

Cerebro is a basketball site with Mark Cuban as a public investor and the infamous draft twitter stylings of the illustrious Prospect Development Web. There is an enormously steep paywall for individuals attempting to use the platform, but the free resources available are more than worth an initial email signup.

You are able to see the five most recent events for each player, which is incredibly helpful for international and OTE prospects (where an entire season is listed as one event). For US based high schoolers, the stats are a little more hit and miss, with some prospects showing stats for over 20 games and others less than 10. 

You are able to see the Top 10 performers for each event, but you can’t just search for an event, you have to select it through a player’s profile. This can be a little tricky at times, but is worth a few extra clicks in order to see the bigger picture of top performers for any given event. A very cool tool, but one that requires some corporate overhead to make the cost worthwhile. 

How Context Changes Stats

This is a more general bullet point to end off the section, but an important one to consider when looking at statistical output in high school and grassroots basketball. The first thing, and most consistent across levels, is that teenagers are not good three point shooters, and they often have a more difficult shot diet than they will in the league. 

Shooting in the low 30s on good volume in high school is a good thing, very few players (with the necessary athletic gifts) are able to score efficiently on jumpers as a 17-year-old. This is why AJ Griffin never should have fallen out of the top seven on draft night, but I digress. 

The difference between high school and grassroots is not a cut and dry one. Grassroots teams tend to play at a higher pace with a more free-flowing style of game with high school representing a more structured context. Statistically speaking, that added pace can affect numbers to a degree, but team context plays a much larger factor. 

Sean Stewart was the best player on the Florida Rebels, but at Montverde he was the sixth man the majority of his senior season. Omaha Biliew was the only high-profile recruit at Waukee his senior year, but played for Mokan Elite with fellow T100 prospects Cameron Carr, Trey Green and 2024 five-star John Bol. Playstyle differences matter, and each context tells you something unique in that regard, but you have to know the difference in on-court role and context to see it.

Searching for Tape

This is the single most stressful part of pre-college draft scouting. Finding quality tape, ideally for free, is a more difficult task than it may seem. Struggling to find full games for prospects was the largest barrier to entry for me: there is nothing I hate more than being in the mood to watch tape, only to waste precious time trying to find it. My philosophy when scouting is to maximize the time spent watching tape, and it is hard to do that when you’re searching for a needle in a haystack.

I decided to take a different approach this summer, getting ahead of my actual tape watching and accumulating film for as much of the RSCI Top 100 as possible. The process was a long and arduous one, but I have been able to find full games for every single prospect in the Top 100, with most prospects having a full game of high school and grassroots.

I have hyperlinked the games I could find in the below excel sheet, just click on the team name on the far right and dive straight in. A quick note: I tried not to link the same game twice for prospects on the same team and sprinkled in condensed videos when I ran out of full game tape. If you are itching for more of a certain prospect (or the link for the player is a shorter video), look for other prospects that played on the same team, you should find what you’re looking for.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1aiQO8DqFD9zT47gdtQrj7oo8cbqsrZlJrkC3a5NeWeo/edit?usp=sharing

YouTube

YouTube, the one and only. There is no other place with free youth basketball tape, but you do need to know how to search. Finding actual game tape is not as easy as typing “Ron Holland Full Game” into your search bar (though with better video titles and captions, it could be!), you will need to be smart about your searches. I’ll go through a few helpful rules I try to follow when searching for games.

Know Your Date Ranges

Grassroots games take place over the summer before a prospect’s senior year, meaning all videos should be roughly a year old. Very rarely are games uploaded months after the fact, so it is pretty safe to assume the NJ Scholars video uploaded in April is not the tape you’re looking for.

High school basketball takes place during the year, so those games should all be less than a year old, and going back a year will take you into the previous season. That can be fine, for both grassroots or high school, if the prospect you are trying to watch was actually on the team the year prior. 

Know What Prospects Look Like

Jersey numbers are a figment of your imagination. They will be listed on the circuit or on other sites, but they are rarely consistent (particularly in grassroots). My personal best practice: google image search “[player name] [team name]”. 

I will look for jersey numbers they’ve worn, if they wear a t-shirt, if they have a recognizable hairstyle, general build, anything to help. If you’re in doubt, search a highlight video and compare movement styles. Sometimes good tape takes a little digging.

Start Specific

Youtube searches are a finicky business, and using too many keywords can be overly exclusionary. With that said, sometimes searching “Dennis Evans Hillcrest Basketball” takes you directly to the video you are looking for. Start specific, and eliminate keywords as you go, until you get down to “[team name] basketball”.

Know When to Keep Scrolling

This one is a little on the finicky side, but sometimes scrolling a little longer is all it takes. There are so many different age groups and years of competition to sift through, and it was very common for quality, full game videos to be buried 50 videos deep in a search. If you are still seeing videos with the team name you searched, keep going. 

Try Google

This one is kind of weird, and honestly I am not sure it “works” from a search engine perspective, but going into the Google videos search bar and looking for games helped me find a few that I just couldn’t seem to get on YouTube. There are at least no “recommended” videos you have to skip past when scrolling. 

BallerTV

The single best publicly available accumulation of high school basketball games, BallerTV is certainly worth a look in your search for tape. The pricing isn’t spectacular, but they do allow you to purchase individual events. You’ll get access to teams that are harder to find (like Dennis Evans on Team Inland) and inter-circuit matchups you won’t find elsewhere. The interface isn’t as smooth as your typical streaming service, but the juice is worth the squeeze if you purchase one of the more star-studded events. 

Twitch

Twitch is the single best place to find EYBL tape, you can find the entirety of Peach Jam on there now, but it is only for the 2023 year (next year’s class). Streams air live on the platform and are available to watch for an extended period of time after, but not an indefinite one. 

Sifting through the different streams and the games within them can be tedious, but that is a small price to pay for a literal metric ton of prospect tape. You just have to do it in a more timely manner than a midsummer cram session.

Parting Thoughts

High school and grassroots basketball is awesome and overwhelming simultaneously. There are more names than you could ever keep track of, yet people seem to do it all the time? Following the ins and outs of future high school classes is an enormous task, and that enormity can make the space feel unapproachable. 

You don’t have to live and breathe grassroots hoops to gain value from watching it, or even joy. Basketball is still basketball, and finding quality tape of players throughout their development journey and in differing contexts is invaluable. Hopefully with a little framing the greater picture of youth basketball is a little clearer. Sometimes to make a circuit work you just have to connect a few dots.

The post A Beginner’s Guide to Amateur Basketball appeared first on Swish Theory.

LeBron James, Kevin Durant, Kawhi Leonard, Giannis Antetokounmpo. Those four players hold 9 of the last 11 Finals MVP trophies. The NBA is a league dominated by large ball handlers, with the best leading their team to NBA finals infamy season after season. 

Few people will argue that the best players in the NBA are largely forward-sized (or larger), with Steph Curry as the only real challenger to that throne for nearly twenty years. What defines a successful NBA guard has changed over that time, but the lens with which we evaluate the position has not evolved along with it.

The search for a modern lead guard has become more and more difficult as time has progressed. In a world where the best players on championship teams are over the height of 6’6”, what does it mean to be a “lead guard” when you aren’t the driving force for your team? 

Let’s take a look at the conference finals of the last five years and what kinds of guards thrived in those environments.

In the East you have Jrue Holiday, Marcus Smart (Derrick White?), Kyle Lowry (Miami and Toronto versions) and Trae Young. 

In the West there is Jamal Murray, Austin Reaves, Steph Curry, Jalen Brunson, Chris Paul, Patrick Beverly, Alex Caruso and Damian Lillard. 

There is a general feeling that a point guard is meant to be this ball-in-hand maestro, pressuring the rim while operating the offense like a puppeteer, but that is so rarely the case when the calendar turns to June. What are the skills most consistent with those above groupings? Any of versatility (in both offensive role and defensive assignment), overwhelming shooting gravity, and/or pick and roll excellence. No-look skip passes and mid-air acrobatics make for an incredible highlight tape, but in the last half decade of basketball has rarely been a driving force in championship success.

This lead guard mentality often seeps into the evaluation of draft prospects, docking players for not living up to a flawed standard. In the 2023 NBA draft there is a glut of guard prospects in the heart of the first round from Anthony Black to Kobe Bukin and Jalen Hood-Schifino, but there are two that stand out in the afterglow of playoff basketball.

Cason Wallace and Nick Smith Jr are two versions of the modern point guard, standing on the backs of excellence and versatility. In a crowded class, what makes these two prospects more suited for playoff basketball? The times have changed. 

The Prospect: Cason Wallace

Cason Wallace is the basketball personification of persistent excellence. Few teenagers have played a full season of college basketball while making as few mistakes as Cason did this past season. On the offensive end, Wallace toggled between an on-ball and off-ball role in a crowded backcourt, but seemingly always made the right decision. 

Wallace is the rare kind of prospect who never takes anything away from your team. He doesn’t make unforced errors or sloppy turnovers, he executes his scheme and chips away at you bit by bit. That kind of controlled dominance is something worth valuing in translation to a role in the NBA, but also from a developmental perspective.  

Succeeding in your role as a young player in the league is the fast track to increased opportunity. So few rookies enter the league as manageable defensive players, and those that are that have even an inkling of offensive skill are immediately thrown into the flames

That trial by fire will be Wallace’s rookie season, and few prospects have been as prepared. He will be on an NBA floor in October, a success for any NBA draft pick, but it is his potential impact in Junes to come that makes Cason Wallace an ideal modern point guard.

The Pitch: Floor General and Defensive Mastermind

The biggest knock against Cason is that he doesn’t quite have the juice you’re looking for out of a lead guard. In a wide-angle view, that is a stance I am sympathetic to. Wallace lacks your traditional “workout moves” you see out of lead ball handlers, rarely resulting in flashy combos or deft manipulation, winning his battles in a much more brutish and physical manner. 

That doesn’t lead to your typical draft prospect mixtape for a point guard, but the results themselves were statistically astounding.  Wallace is efficient from just about everywhere on the floor. At the rim, Wallace shot an astounding 66%, far and away the highest mark in the class amongst guards. His finishing quality comes from a combination of strength, touch and crafty finishing angles. He is not the most explosive guard with the ball in his hands, but his skill and athleticism more than compensates.

Beyond his finishing at the rim, Wallace shot a scalding 44.8% on dribble jumpers in the midrange. Despite his relatively low usage rate of 20.3, Wallace had an impressive volume of two-point self creation. He was never overwhelming, but was incredibly efficient in the types of shots NBA offenses will ask him to take. 

Wallace is best operating out of a pick and roll, allowing him to read the defense within a familiar construct and in turn make quality decisions. He is not the flashiest passer, but he makes the reads required of him in lay downs, pocket passes, or kickouts. He is not someone to create offense out of thin air, but give him a closeout or a ball screen and now you’re cooking with gas. 

Cason was efficient from everywhere on the floor this past season, particularly within the arc. Typically when you are really good at scoring in certain areas, teams will lean on that until you become less efficient. That never happened at Kentucky, the sky is blue and water is wet. I am not saying Cason Wallace is Jamal Murray or Devin Booker, but the idea he is incapable of shouldering a larger scoring load on offense does not track.  

There isn’t anything Cason should be asked to do at the next level that he won’t thrive at from day one. That immediate translatability is incredibly important. Wallace will have the opportunity for on court reps the moment he steps onto an NBA court, in large part because of his defensive impact.

Wallace is one of the most advanced defensive guards at his age in modern history. A team-defense wizard, he is always in the right place at the right time in help or jumping passing lanes. He is an effective defender in isolation and uses his strength well, but can struggle to navigate ball screens with a bulkier frame. He is still an effective defender on-ball and provides versatility there, but it is the off-ball defense that pays the bills.

The best defenders anticipate actions and are already there seemingly before it even happens. It’s a catalyst for good defense, plugging holes before they have time to let in water. You know the famous Derek Jeter play where he just appears behind home plate to complete an entirely insane series-saving play? That’s Cason Wallace.

The Fit: Steady Hand of the King to a Score First Wing

Teams built around a score-first forward like Giannis, Jayson Tatum or Kawhi Leonard are the ideal fit for a guard like Cason, and it is no coincidence they have found success next to guards with a similar value proposition in Jrue Holiday, Marcus Smart and Patrick Beverly.

No matter how much teams stress offensive flow and inclusion, in playoff hoops the ball finds your star, and your offense is defined by what they do with it. They aren’t creating enormous advantages for others, so the necessary threshold for creation is higher for their teammates. You need to do something when the ball finds you and the defense has a short closeout, but the returns on self creation are diminishing.

The best self creator on the team is already installed, and only one person can create at a time. Boston is not taking the ball out of Jayson Tatum’s hands for a Marcus Smart iso (on purpose). Thriving in the other areas of the game is where you begin to see exponential impact, and that is the case for Cason. I am more optimistic than some regarding his ultimate upside as a scorer, but genuinely I am not sure how much it matters.

Cason Wallace will be thriving in playoff rotations for the next decade because of his defense and steady-handed efficiency. Cason Wallace’s game is built for modern playoff basketball. Prospects with that certainty of two way competence do not come around often. For a point guard on a wing-led team, the combination of supreme defensive impact and scalable, diverse offense is a proven recipe for success. Beyond immediate translatability the combination of early-career opportunity, defensive processing and athleticism are a proven recipe for outlier development. 

The Prospect: Nick Smith Jr

Nick Smith Jr is a fixer-upper fan’s dream. A top-five recruit entering college many expected to be in contention for a top-three pick, the flashes of electric athleticism, limitless shooting and instinctual passing seemed to be the foundation of a creator. 

A preseason wrist injury requiring surgery and an in-season knee injury all but sapped any hope of Smith building on his positive momentum entering the year, and as a result his potential draft position has slid precipitously.

This is a phenomenon that irks me to my core. Nick Smith Jr is not a meaningfully different prospect than he was a year ago. His foundation of quick-twitch athleticism, shot versatility and budding self creation remain an ever-present part of his appeal as a prospect and his freshman season showed flashes of it all.

Any player that misses training camp, the beginning of the season, and is then sidelined for two months with a (minor) knee injury is going to struggle to integrate themselves into a system, particularly one as spacing deprived as Arkansas this past season.

It is easy to look at the macro-level statistical output and lower NSJ down your board accordingly, but that statistical sample is far too flawed to take at face value.  

The Pitch: On- and Off-Ball Creation

The first thing you have to start with when discussing Nick’s freshman season is the shot. The numbers from an efficiency perspective were incredibly poor, especially for a prospect billed to be an excellent shooter. The context of his injuries, wrist and knee, are important in understanding that sample.

Could it be possible that the only real difference in his success as a shooter between this year and last is his health, and comfort getting into his shot? In my eyes, that feels more likely the more I watch. Smith wasn’t just a good shooter in high school, his touch was outlandish and his range was already Lillard-esque. Shot creators take a long time to develop into efficient scorers, so it is no shock an injury-riddled season led to inefficiency. With that said, NSJ’s flashes as an initiator, using his gravity and shot versatility to create offense, were as scalding as ever.

Learning to harness your gravity is what catalyzes the offensive impact of guard creators like Nick, but it is something that only comes with time. It takes a high level of feel and creative boldness to truly maximize that kind of offensive weapon as an off-ball mover and freestyle passer.

Nick can make reads in the pick and roll in the half court that lead well to future projection as a passer and creator for others, but it is his excellence within the confines of chaos that truly intrigues me. When things go awry, the ball seems to always find its way to Nick, and in turn the spectacular follows.

The free flowing nature of modern basketball is made for a freestyle artist like Nick Smith Jr, and he will thrive in the chaos of transition as soon as he enters the league. That open court creativity fuels the dream of potential half-court creation. 

This past season Smith settled a lot in the half court, too often chucking up a difficult floater early into a drive. From a sheer volume perspective, NSJ trailed only Brice Sensabaugh and Jalen Hood-Schifino in per70 mid-range scoring, the only issue being his drastically lower efficiency.

Unlike Brice and JHS, who often struggle to create initial advantages yet find a way to score, Smith is a shifty handler with real burst. His handle is still rudimentary at times (see: injury, wrist) but his comfortability with unorthodox movement styles and jitter-bug athleticism make for an encouraging creator bet as he grows into his frame.

That last part is the key, and ties directly into his overall efficiency woes. Smith is able to create initial advantages, but often is too weak in his handle or frame to maintain them, much less finish through rim protection waiting in the paint. 

The Fit: Score First Robin to a Jumbo Playmaker Batman 

You don’t have to look far to find the ideal test case for this fit, with the NBA Champion Denver Nuggets showing just how effective it can be. The NBA is dominated by larger playmakers, and it makes sense: the taller you are, the more passing windows you have at your disposal. Be it Nikola Jokic, LeBron James, Luka Doncic or more unproven options like LaMelo Ball, Josh Giddey and Amen Thompson, size and passing ability are a combination of skills you find in foundational pieces of rosters across the league.

Smith is the ideal player to pair with that style of creator for a few different reasons. Offensively, his scalability both on and off ball is a valuable trait, as the style of his game thrives in both settings. The versatility of Smith’s game relies on his jumper, and that is the thing I am most confident in projecting forward. One injury-marred season doesn’t change that. 

Adding size and the ability to play through contact would be next in line, and one that feels pretty safe to project (at least to a moderate degree) considering his frame and age. NSJ is never going to be a bully ball guard, but he has the height and length to grow into a stronger player than he is currently. Being able to finish some looks through traffic would be a positive step, and something that should come easier on a properly spaced NBA floor with NBA level offensive players surrounding him.

On the defensive end, much of the vision again relies on Smith adding at least a modicum of strength. He is a hyper-quick athlete with the kind of twitchiness you need out of a point of attack defender in ball screens. He does an excellent job of using his body to maneuver through screens while staying locked behind the defender, where his length does wonders as he recovers to contest. 

Certainly there were major lapses in technique and attentiveness throughout the year, but when things were clicking the vision of NSJ as a player who can successfully fill a role in an effective defense begins to look a little clearer.  

This is not to say NSJ is going to be a high impact defensive player (though I am undoubtedly higher on his defensive potential than most), but he does fill a useful role for most rosters. No star, big or small, wants to defend opposing point guards at the point of attack. Smith has the tools to succeed there, and with the proper organizational emphasis should do well enough there to provide value, all while being an incredibly dynamic offensive player.

That road to even moderate impact is important, as it means the likelihood of a prospect becoming a “man without a country” on the defensive end. NSJ may not be the best POA guy in the league, but he has the tools to fare much better than the alternative. Taking the defensive assignment nobody wants to take and providing potential star offensive value on and off the ball is like team building fertilizer, it makes growing a healthy roster landscape that much easier. 

The Wrap: Guards are Good

The idea of a “lead guard” is a useful concept, one that describes a general archetype that is one of the most valuable in the league, but its definition has become too narrow. 

In a modern NBA where offensive initiation is more diversified than ever before, the requirements of point guards differ on nearly every single NBA team. The idea that being a point guard requires three-level self creation and advanced passing reads to be an A1 point guard prospect is overly dismissive. 

The best guards in the postseason are the guards that mesh perfectly with the needs of their surrounding talent. Every player has their own strengths and weaknesses, team building in the NBA is about finding players that accentuate the strengths of the best players in your team. 

Cason Wallace and Nick Smith Jr are primed with strengths that enhance modern title contenders and the players around them with the upside to change the course of a championship.  Sounds like a lead guard to me. 

The post The Lead Guard Fallacy appeared first on Swish Theory.

The basketball gods must love breakfast tacos. The San Antonio Spurs struck gold in the lottery once again, where their record is somehow even more impressive than in the postseason. 

Victor Wembanyama is a reality-breaking prospect with the potential to do just about anything you could think up. Winning the lottery changed the future of the Spurs in an instant, but with it came the enormous weight of expectation.

The task of building a title contender around the NBA’s next superstar is both an exciting and unpredictable adventure. Nobody like this has ever existed on an NBA floor, there is no playbook for success. The shape this team will ultimately take at its peak is unknown, but one thing is for certain: there is no time to waste.

Many are resistant to the idea of cashing in trade chips to acquire a star, and for good reason! Finding a player on a similar timeline to Vic is important, and every star available on the market is all but aged out of that window or already looking at enormous future salary commitments. These are not the stars you’re looking for. 

Rather than waiting for the right deal to appear down the line, the idea of being aggressive in the 2023 NBA Draft is one worth exploring. The class is loaded with potential playoff performers that would fit in the long-term vision of the franchise from the top of the lottery all the way into the teens, twenties and potentially even into the early second round. 

Few draft classes are fortunate to have this depth of talent, and for a team like San Antonio looking to build through the draft, that depth is a rare opportunity. The night will begin with the Spurs drafting the future face of their franchise, but the proceeding moments may be the perfect time to strike while the iron is hot. 

For the first time since the departure of Kawhi Leonard, the San Antonio Spurs have the juice. How can they use draft night to ensure the party doesn’t meet a similarly ill-fated demise? It all starts with constructing a roster that is befitting of our foundational star. 

In this piece we’ll cover what assets San Antonio has at their disposal as they begin to build around Victor Wembanyama before taking a deeper look at two potential lead guard options in the lottery and the price it could take to move up. Let’s dive in.

The Assets

Dating back to the Kawhi Leonard trade, San Antonio has slowly accumulated tradable assets with future first round picks and young players exceeding their draft position. I’ve divided the existing assets from draft picks to players on contract into similarly valued groups below.

A few points of clarification. 

Zach Collins is good. Yes, the injury concerns are real and he’s only really had half as season as an entrenched starter. Popovich has come out very strongly in favor of Collins manning the five spot, even in the case of winning the lottery. Vic’s camp has stated publicly he sees himself as a forward, trading away the only capable starting center on the roster seems infeasible within that construct.  

Vassell, Sochan, Johnson and Branham all represent effective, cost controlled youth the team will lean on when first building around Wembanyama. All four have proven themselves capable NBA players with meaningful upside, even if they have been over-tasked in recent years.

That last point is worth emphasizing. This team needed a star desperately. The roster was chalk-full of fun complementary young pieces, but the end result was a bunch of talented 20-year-olds being forced to do too much. With Wembanyama’s arrival in San Antonio, a more functional structure should begin to take place. 

It would not be surprising for all four of the above mentioned players to have a more efficient and impactful offensive season. This past season, Keldon Johnson posted a higher usage rate than DeMar DeRozan and Devin Vassell’s usage was higher than Dejounte Murray. Beyond that, the Spurs were the worst team in the league at creating and maintaining advantages.

Both Keldon and Devin are incredibly intriguing long-term pieces, but that is far from ideal given their comparative skillsets.  With each party sliding down a run in the proverbial pecking order (on both ends of the floor), the game should start to become easier.  

In the case of Keldon Johnson, this feels particularly prescient. Keldon’s game begins with ferocious downhill rim pressure. While not always the most efficient scorer, Keldon is at least putting his shoulder into his defender, putting his head down and getting to the rim. 

The presence of Wembanyama, and the natural gravity he will command every time he’s on the court, should open up driving lanes and finishing angles for Keldon that he has yet to experience.  Moving on from Keldon should come with a very real (and immediate) upgrade. 

Regarding the pick from Charlotte, everywhere I look simply refers to it as a lottery protected first round pick. The only hangup? It converts to two seconds if not conveyed this year. 

Charlotte was one of the worst teams in the league last year and their odds of a playoff push are meek at best. That is a fake first, something the team should have no problem moving on from, but may make a difference for a team looking to bolster the appearance of their return in the realm of public opinion. 

The Raptors first will almost surely convey next year, and is the most interesting of the protected picks. The Bulls first has favorable protections as well, but with a longer lead-time the value of that pick is less, but still notable in trade talks. Those two picks, in conjunction with the Charlotte pick, should be seen as the immediately movable assets.

Buying back into the first of a loaded draft class isn’t going to come cheap and with that kind of price the fit needs to be sublime. The right deal could give the Spurs a head start towards building their next dynasty, but could that deal look like? We’ll start at the top.

The Drink Stirrers

The current Spurs roster is littered with youth and talent, but lacks a true initiator on the perimeter. Victor Wembanyama will be a defensive menace and mismatch nightmare the moment he enters the league, but the idea of building an offense around him at this point can only be seen as over-aggressive. Vic is a scorer, and building his footing there is the first order of business.   

Finding a guard that can grow alongside Wemby while capitalizing on the inherent gravity he creates seems like the first place to look. Since the departure of Dejounte Murray (but really Tony Parker if you think about it) the Spurs have lacked a true initiator for their offense. The patented drive and kick offense spent much of the last half-decade dying on the vine due to a lack of on-ball juice. 

Adding Vic as a front-court focal point helps alleviate some of their offensive concerns, but the team will need to find a long-term answer at point guard before it can begin a serious championship push. Rather than forcing the issue with an aging vet or out of position youngster this draft offers a few different solutions to the Spurs lead guard problem, but only if they are willing to pay the price. 

The Prospect: Amen Thompson

Amen Thompson’s potential fit needs little explaining. Amen has the kind of perimeter advantage creation you can’t teach, the inevitable kind where he seemingly teleports into the paint before your very eyes. As a passer, his court awareness and flair for the spectacular make him not only one of the most exhilarating watches of the cycle, but the ideal co-star for Vicor Wembanyama. 

The team has been reported to be highly intrigued by the prospect of drafting Amen, and while winning the lottery makes that more complicated, the very idea is enticing enough to be worth exploring what it could take, and if a deal would be worth the price. 

The Pitch: The Perfect Fit Co-Star 

The case for why to do it is simple: this team needs an injection of perimeter size, athleticism and playmaking. Amen checks all of those boxes, and there is genuine reason to believe San Antonio is the best place to maximize his growth.

With a clear primary option in Wembanyama and complementary spacing galore there is an offensive safety net in place for Amen to gradually grow his game without being overburdened during his development. Regardless of whatever the trade package would be, San Antonio will have a well-spaced floor next season. They just need someone to get them the ball, and Amen is the most creative passing prospect since Lamelo Ball, and honestly there isn’t much competition.

There are concerns about his ability to score efficiently in the halfcourt without the threat of a jumper, but the spacing of a Wemby/Collins front court should help alleviate most of the finishing concerns against size. Now, if only San Antonio had a history of slowing building workable jumpshots. Wait…

Amen Thompson is the best drive and kick point guard prospect in a long time. It doesn’t get better than this. 

Defensively the fit is a positive (and familiar) one. Amen is a remarkable quick-twitch athlete with all of the tools to be an absolute menace for opposing backcourts. He is a more gifted defender than a refined one feasting on highlight-reel steals and breakaway dunks, but his technique when navigating ball screens and general consistency can leave you wanting more. .

His time at OTE was less engaged defensively than you would prefer from a prospect where defensive impact is a potentially large swing skill, but that feels just as indicative of the environment as the prospect. Refining outlier athletic tools and instincts despite a thin frame is a project that sounds incredibly familiar.

Amen Thompson has many of the same qualities that made Dejounte Murray such an impactful defender for San Antonio. His penchant for jumping passing lanes and athletic lunacy can change the course of a game on its own, that energy just needs to be harnessed. 

Dejounte’s ultimate impact was kneecapped by a failure to surround him with adequate defensive talent. Great guard defense cannot create a good defense on its own, much less a great one. With Victor Wembanyama and Jeremy Sochan on the roster, Amen would have a much different context, one with the infrastructure to insulate and enhance Amen’s defensive playmaking. 

The Price: Devin Vassell 

Well friends, we’ve made it to the wet blanket portion of the program. By all accounts, the pick used to draft Amen Thompson will come at an exorbitant price. Unlikely? Yes. Impossible? No. 

Moving into the top 4 of this draft would be all but impossible. It would cost assets San Antonio doesn’t have (a young All-Star wing) or the teams owing the picks are not motivated to trade with San Antonio (Houston). Amen would almost certainly need to fall beyond the Rockets at four, and that feels ludicrous given how well he fits with their young core. 

The Harden return, Portland trade rumors and Charlotte’s general unpredictableness muddies the waters just enough for a glimmer of hope to sneak through. Trading into the lottery is a rare occurrence and, in a draft with this talent level, will almost certainly require a combination of players or future picks. 

Getting into the top half of the lottery should Amen begin to slide, namely Detroit or Orlando at 5 and 6, would most likely cost Devin Vassell and potentially some additional sweetening on the fringes. Historically speaking, trading into the top seven of the draft is expensive and generally requires a later first (something San Antonio doesn’t have), or it is part of a larger star trade package. 

That is an enormous price to pay, particularly so given you would have drafted your franchise cornerstone not thirty minutes prior. It would take an incredibly fortunate set of circumstances and an enormous risk from San Antonio, but I think it is something they would have to consider. 

The hardest part about building a genuine contender in the NBA is finding a true-blue second star. Devin Vassell and Jeremy Sochan are incredibly fun and valuable pieces to the team, but that is an enormous expectation to put on two players without reliable tools for creation.

Amen would immediately become the primary creator for this team, and his strengths make the rest of this roster better. We know the team is higher than most on both Thompson twins, and Amen fits like a glove. If you can keep your cache of high-value draft picks intact while adding the perfect point guard for your system and franchise cornerstone, you have to consider that deal. 
Trading Vassell would feel a whole lot like trading team-favorite George Hill back in 2011. An incredibly heavy price to pay in the moment, but one that could look a whole lot smaller in the rear-view mirror.

Ultimately, I highly doubt Amen falls into a “gettable” range for the Spurs. If he did, I would be incredibly tempted to pull the trigger, but dealing Vassell (an ideal spacing wing for the future Spurs) feels like a step too far for the team. If there is a way to get the deal done with a collection of Keldon, Branham and draft capital I would pounce on that in an instant, but even as I type this I can see pigs flying around my office. Sometimes a dream is just a dream.

The Prospect: Anthony Black

Anthony Black entered this season as part of a star-studded Arkansas recruiting class where he was viewed as a defensive-minded guard with real passing chops but limited on-ball value due to his difficulty scoring in the halfcourt. 

He was hardly the headliner of his class, but ended the year as the widely-viewed best prospect on the team and likely Top 10 pick. Without an efficient jumper, Black had to rely on other means for creating efficient offense, and in doing so showed what makes him an intriguing target for San Antonio should they choose to trade up. 

The Pitch: The Versatile Guard of the Future

Anthony Black began the year as the lead guard for the Razorbacks as Nick Smith Jr. recovered from injury. Immediately, his ability to pressure the rim popped. Black is an incredibly bouncy athlete that can rise up and dunk at a moments notice, but it was his craft running the pick and roll that stood out.

Without a workable jumper off the bounce, Black thrived playing with Trevon Brazille operating as a genuine pick and pop threat. He is excellent at using his handle to keep a defender on his back and manipulates both his space and timing to get off quality looks at the hoop.

His touch around the rim was largely solid with some exciting flashes using his floater, making a few ludicrous, heavily contested looks. There were a few clunkers and strange moments, but his overall craft as a finisher was impressive. Coupled with his vision and timing as a passer, Black profiles well as a potential drink-stirrer for the future Spurs.

From a complementary skills perspective, Black is an excellent cutter, where his athleticism really pops. He has a great awareness of the space around him and a knack for finding crevices in a defense. In a future where defensive attention is largely focused on Victor Wembanyama, Black has the creativity and athleticism to punish defenses consistently. 

His jumper was rough this year, but his touch as a finisher and passer are both very good. The form looks uncomfortable now, with a harshly cocked wrist and uneasy energy transfer, but it is far from un-fixable. If the shot comes around, he profiles as a guard who can not only initiate offense but play off of Wembanyama in an equally effective way.

Defensively, Black is just about everything the Spurs value in a guard, yet again in a remarkably familiar sense. He has active hands at all times, blowing up plays and tipping passes despite an average wingspan. His athleticism plays well off-ball jumping passing lanes or as a tertiary rim protector, but more than anything he’s incredibly sound.. 

Black keeps his feet underneath him, is never flustered and even if he’s overmatched physically, is going to find a way to contest your shot no matter what. Dereck White became a fan (and coaching staff) favorite for exactly that brand of hyper-competent defense. He is a glue guy, filling the crevices of your defense. Need someone at the point of attack? No problem. An off-ball shooting specialist? Perfect. A shot-creating off-guard? Ant Black has you covered.

That kind of positional versatility, defensively and (potentially) offensively is incredibly hard to find, and even more valuable when constructing a roster around a singular, universe-engulfing star. Over the course of a decade plus of hopeful contention, the versatility to change your role to fit the current personnel, and excel while doing it, is an invaluable trait. Black addresses the needs of this current roster and has the moldable skillset to continue to fill in the gaps as they appear. 

The Price: Keldon Johnson

The stretch of picks from 7-11 (Indiana, Washington, Utah, Dallas, Orlando) seems like the natural resting place for Black’s draft stock. It is hard to imagine him falling past 11 at the absolute latest with a very real chance he goes in the top eight. 

Buying a pick in the top ten is a huge ask, and one that is likely to require genuine player compensation to complete. Keldon would appear to carry the most trade value in the open market amongst movable players and his off-ball scoring and energy would be welcome in a number of places in the lottery. 

With San Antonio’s continued belief in big-ball lineups and their incumbent center Zach Collins it feels like a fairly safe assumption the plan is to play Wembanyama at the four going forward. After Jeremy Sochan’s excellent rookie season, it is hard to envision a starting lineup without him in it. The fit there is hopeful, but one that leaves Keldon without a place in the starting lineup.

Does that mean Keldon has to be moved? Certainly not. There is still a meaningful role for Keldon, it just may not be as a starter. That reality, and the value of his declining salary over the next four years, makes him an intriguing trade chip.

A one-for-one deal involving Keldon and Black is something worth considering just on the basis of improved roster context, but it is by no means a home run. Black’s shot from distance is a real question mark that will take multiple seasons to iron out. He is not a lost cause, but the form is far from ideal and is a real hindrance in terms of versatility. 

He tested incredibly well athletically at the combine, but that doesn’t seem to translate as effectively on-ball. His handle is solid and finishing package strong, but there is a lack of undeniability you look for in shot-deficient guards. 

If the cost is purely draft capital, somewhere in the ballpark of the Toronto and Chicago firsts (you can throw in the Charlotte fake first), gambling on a lead ball-handler that is an incredibly solid bet as a connector feels like a smart bet to make. Black would make everyone on this roster better, even if he struggles beyond the arc as a rookie. That improved context is the whole sell, and it makes the idea of moving on from one of the very players he would help feel uninspired.  

The price of two or three protected firsts is nothing to sneeze at, but all three of those picks are incredibly limited in upside and as such are relatively low risk trade tools. Better yet, the draft day deals between OKC, New York, Charlotte and Detroit last year provides a proof of concept for a buy-in. Holding onto your own firsts and Atlanta’s unprotected picks is the priority. These are not the picks to be wringing your hands over. 

Black is largely mocked to go in the top 10 with a bevy of point guard-hungry teams waiting in the heart of the lottery. The odds he falls to a pick that can be acquired with protected future picks feels slim, but with more than a few guard options rising up boards crazier things have happened. Black could prove a worthy gamble, but finding the right price may prove to be a complicated task.

The Wrap

If there is one major weakness on this roster, it is perimeter initiation. Last year, this team was too often stuck behind the eight ball in the half court, hoping for a contested make or defensive lapse.

With Victor Wembanyama, the need to rectify that weakness only intensifies. Getting your star player easy looks in the flow of the offense is a necessity, and  finding a proper lead guard should be at the top of the to-do list this summer. 

Anthony Black represents an intriguing option, but not one without its flaws. His combination of size, athleticism and ball skills is highly converted around the league today for the same reasons he would be a great fit in San Antonio. He would be a meaningful upgrade, but that demand could price him out of San Antonio’s range.

One of Nick Smith Jr, Cason Wallace, Bilal Coulibay and Anthony Black will fall into the late lottery and potentially all the way into the mid teens. Black has had more Top 10 momentum early, but I would prefer Wallace and Smith to Black for the Spurs regardless of price. The immediate fit of a real guard shooter is too enticing, with both options presenting an equal (or greater) ultimate upside, even if it may look a little different. 

Amen Thompson is an entirely different equation as he will almost certainly be drafted before Ant Black, but may be a more sensible option as a trade-up target. The price for Thompson would be steep, but his upper-echelon athleticism and awareness represent an enticing proposition. 

The shot questions are even more severe, but the highs are insurmountably higher. That’s why the thought he even falls out of the top four feels preposterous, an idea clinging to life with Portland Trailblazer workout videos, James Harden’s homesickness and an undying belief in eventual draft night chaos.

It would be an enormous gamble to put together the kind of trade package it will take to draft Amen, even if he were to fall. Moves like that bring a GM rings or a pink slip and you never really know ahead of time. San Antonio will begin the night drafting the new face of their franchise. Finding a proper co-star is no easy task and opportunities wont come along often. Sometimes, the price is worth the pain. 

The post The San Antonio Spurs Have the Juice appeared first on Swish Theory.

“How is he going to stick in the league?” is a question you hear every draft season as scouts, teams and fans alike begin the inexact science of prospect evaluation and projection. Every NBA draft prospect has a unique collection of skills, but it is their bread and butter that gets them into the league and minutes on the court. 

Success in the NBA is about singular excellence, even amongst its role players. While supporting skills are important and can be added over time, nearly every single player in the league has a single, defining skill upon which their on-court identity is based.

That skill slots a player into an on-court role or archetype, but its impact goes further than that. What separates star players from the rest is not just how effective their skill is, but their ability to leverage that skill for greater results. 

On a macro level, it is helpful to place players into archetypes. Basketball is a team sport with an ever-churning mill of player movement. Identifying the big-picture skills of a player and how that applies to your specific team construct is inarguably positive. At the same time, particularly in the case of teenage prospects, the labels of an archetype can be inherently restricting and reductive of their potential.  

For players entering the league an archetype is a big-picture term that defines your initial role and pathway to minutes, but a prototype is an outcome unique to each individual. In this piece we will dive into two prospects with an outlier combination of shooting and height. How does their skill project to an NBA floor, and how can they leverage that skill to find their own identity as a star in the league? Roll the tape and let’s dive in.

Brandon Miller

Archetype: Floor Spacer 
Catch and Shoot, Deep Range, Movement Shooter

Brandon Miller is one of the greatest shooting prospects we have ever seen at his size, that is an unimpeachable fact. Miller’s combination of age, height, three point volume and usage is nearly unprecedented, resulting in one of the most dominant offensive seasons in the country.

Miller came into the year billed as a smooth shooting scorer, but his success beyond the arc is what carried his value this season. A constant threat any time he was on the court, it often felt like no three was too deep for Miller, jacking up shots well beyond the NBA line on a regular basis. 

That version of extreme spacing, not just to the arc but feet beyond it, is incredibly valuable in today’s NBA. As offenses have begun to hunt threes more regularly, defenses (and their personnel) have improved in recovery. The extra few feet of space beyond the arc gives space for a cleaner look and a much longer path for the defender to take in any kind of help rotation. 

In transition, Miller is a threat as soon as he passes halfcourt, a master of pace and timing when running the floor. Miller has no issue outpacing defenses in transition but is often found within the thicket of bodies as they cross halfcourt. 

To some this may be a lapse in effort, but I see it as the subtle brushstrokes of a transition artist. As defenses scramble to contain the ball it is easy to lose track of shooters in a free flowing transition attack and Miller uses that to his advantage.

As the drive begins to develop Miller starts his approach, timing his arrival on the three point line in sync with the driver and positioning himself within the open space just as the defense pulls in towards the paint. That awareness of space and timing will result in a ton of easy buckets for Miller throughout his career. 

His excellence in timing is fueled by Miller’s ability to find center as he relocates around the perimeter, using pristine footwork beyond the arc to rise into his shot on-balance. Miller’s transition play and his ability to score out of DHO or off-ball screen actions should solidify his floor of value in the league as one of its most scheme-able tall shooters. 

Prototype: Morey-Ball Forward Initiator
PnR Operator, Drive and Kick, Ball Handling

The analytics “revolution” is a hotly contested topic, as is any topic claiming to be the answer of an unsolvable puzzle. Even in an uncertain environment, basic logic and math often go hand in hand. Threes are worth more than twos and the most efficient twos occur at the rim. What is the easiest way to get up more threes? Force the defense to rotate. How do you force the defense to rotate? Get to the rim.

The reason these “Morey-Ball” principals have worked to the extent they have is that its two core tenants, rim pressure and threes, are symbiotic. Spacing provides lanes for driving, rim pressure creates defensive rotations and open threes, rinse and repeat. 

More formulaic than creative, the math-ketball style of offense makes the game simpler while providing an unsolvable problem for defenses. Brandon Miller’s game represents much of that philosophical ethos with his red-hot shooting and burgeoning game as a drive and kick initiator. 

Miller averaged over two self-created rim attempts per game this season, an impressive number for a jumper-oriented wing scorer, and his growth operating out of ball screens as the year went along was incredibly impressive. 

Miller has a long slender build, but is a strength-based athlete. This presents a few challenges for Miller as a creator and has forced him to develop his craft as a driver rather than relying on burst or brute force. 

When operating out of ball screens Miller does a great job using misdirection, change of pace and wide-angle drives to manufacture lanes to the hoop, gradually growing in effectiveness as the year progressed. 

While Miller isn’t particularly “bursty” he has long strides and impressive strength digging out of pseudo-lunges as he unfolds his limbs attacking the paint.Combined with a long wingspan and a genuine willingness to initiate contact, Miller was a genuine threat attacking the basket in Alabama’s pace and space scheme. 

As a result of his continued growth as a driver, Miller began to draw not only defensive attention but defensive help. Standing at ~6’9”, Miller was able to easily see over the top of defenses to find shooters on the perimeter or bigs in the paint. Flashes of manipulation with his handle and passing angles were particularly encouraging, he does more than just hunt for his shot. 

This is what makes Miller such an intriguing proposition. He is one of the best shooters in the country that safely cleared the requirement for rim pressure needed to provide genuine impact. On a more effectively spaced court, the vision of Miller as an off-ball scorer that can operate as a secondary initiator, breaking down the defense and finding open shooters, is both a realistic and tantalizing projection.

Limiting Factors: Two-Point Scoring and Off-Ball Defense   
Space Creation, Finishing, Quickness

Creating offense is the name of the game for any potential star, and while Brandon Miller is not the quickest or shiftiest handler, he does a great job using misdirection and irregular stride patterns to beat his man and combat rim protector in the paint. His growth in this area was encouraging throughout the season, but it is worth noting Miller does not have the typical tools of your “star wing scorer”, relying more on subtle hesitation and craft. 

The actual results were mixed, with flashes of intriguing craft and moments of real worry. Ultimately, Brandon Miller shot 33/84 (39.3%) at the rim in the halfcourt this past season, a number that paints the picture of a disadvantaged rim threat. Beyond even finishing, getting to the rim is work, and isn’t something that works out every drive.

For skill-oriented initiators, having a reliable and creative mid-range game is an invaluable tool to help make up for a lack of undeniable rim pressure. Miller has a beautiful turnaround jumper he often resorts to off a broken drive, but there was little variety (or success) this year beyond that. 

The effectiveness of that shot is noteworthy, as is what makes it an effective option. The natural fade of a turnaround in the lane gives Miller a little extra space and a slightly elevated release point on his jumper. 

Despite his height and shooting talent, Miller shot 7/24  (29.2%) on pull-up twos in the halfcourt last season. His release point and lack of space creation tools (upper body strength or lateral quickness) narrowed his avenues for potential success within the arc. 

Midrange jumpers have to be easy for teams to let you shoot them, and that may prove to be a steep hill to climb. The lack of volume is surely a reflection of Alabama’s offensive scheme limiting mid-range looks, an easily dismissed red flag. The efficiency, namely the lack of comfort Miller showed operating within the confines of the arc as a shooter, is more noteworthy. 

Miller shot a higher percentage (32.9%) on dribble jumpers from three than he did from the mid-range, and that further clarifies the issue at hand. Beyond the arc defenders play further off, allowing more room for Miller to get his shot off. Within the confines of the arc that space shrinks, and when that happened Miller did not have the tools to create the space himself.

On the defensive end there feels like little to note. Miller is excellent at high-pointing rebounds in traffic and had a few highlight-reel worthy chase down blocks in transition, but beyond that the cupboard is relatively bare. He uses his length well in isolation and containing drives, but really struggles to navigate screens and move his feet with quicker guards. 

The off-ball defense is what stuck out to me as the largest pain point. Miller was good at anticipating rotations as a weak-side rim protector but the rotations themselves were often meandering in nature, a gradual shift of position rather than a succinct rotation. 

He doesn’t have the quick twitch athleticism to dig and recover out to shooters in an effective manner and is often left shuffling in no-man’s land closing out to shooters. Miller was often given the least threatening defensive assignment, making these struggles within his role more concerning. 

Without an easily translatable defensive impact, it is the magnitude of Miller’s offensive success that will carry his value. A high-tempo, five-out offense that prioritizes threes and rim attempts could help many of these issues, but there is a more specific context needed to maximize Miller’s offensive talent than your typical star wing creator. Even in an ideal team context, it will take intentional creativity to make things come together. The inherent conflict of a uniquely skilled prospect.

Jett Howard

Archetype: Floor Spacer
Movement Shooter, Off-Ball Movement, Pull-Up Shooter

The case for Jett Howard as a potential lottery pick is an easy one, and not dissimilar to Brandon Miller. There are not very many players listed at 6’8” that can get up threes on volume like Jett this past season. 

I have been told using 13 in a bart query is malpractice, but you can’t argue with the results. Freshman wings do not shoot jumpers at this kind of volume with this kind of success. There are certainly some areas for concern, even on the offensive end, but Howard’s projection as a floor spacer is about as clean as they come.

The first point I want to hit on here is the volume, not simply the number but rather how that number came to be. Jett was used at Michigan in a variety of different sets, but was most commonly found sprinting around the perimeter like a stretched out version of JJ Redick.

Howard thrived as a tough shot-maker, though more in the complementary scoring sense than an on-ball one. In a three-point oriented league, the ability to actually get up shots is an incredibly difficult and invaluable skill. Howard’s combination of shift, off balance shotmaking and quick release are the makings of a floor spacer that works in nearly any environment.

Beyond his off-ball excellence, Howard is a talented shooter off the bounce with the ability to adjust his release angles to account for contests. Close out hard? Howard has no problem relocating with the ball in his hands to get a cleaner look.  

His mechanics off the bounce are clean and the results show it. My thoughts on Howard always return to the same place: teenagers this size should not be this comfortable shooting the ball. This is not normal, but what exactly does that mean?

Prototype: Jumbo Scoring Guard
Pull-Up Shooter, Closeout Attacker, Ball Handling, Off-Ball Movement

The ultimate vision for Jett involves finding each and every way possible to weaponize his shot. At Michigan he was able to showcase some of that versatility, but it often felt like food was left on the table. With a usage rate of only 21.8, Jett Howard may be the first coach’s kid ever to not get enough on-ball reps.

With his height and fluidity getting into his shot off a live dribble, Howard was an incredibly effective pull-up scorer on volume that feels entirely too low. That same jumper malleability, contorting his shot to match the defender’s contest, is even more valuable within the arc. When the space shrinks up, Howard has the coordinated creativity to still get off a quality look. 

Actually making shots is the biggest hurdle for young shotmakers, yet Howard proved to exceed expectations in nearly every facet. Synergy has a new metric this year Synergy Shot Making (SSM) that tracks how a player shoots compared to the expected value of each shot.

For any one-season statistical sample, it is important to remember nearly every data point you use is subject to the biases of small sample size, particularly with shooting numbers. 

With that said, I would like to compare the samples of Jett Howard and Brandon Miller in different types of shot types and settings.

Jett’s “quite good” numbers off the catch pale in comparison to Miller’s astronomical season, but off the bounce was a different story.

Despite his billing and overall statistical profile resembling that of an off-ball shooting specialist, Howard’s game off the bounce was efficient in just about every playtype or spot on the court you could imagine. 

As I talked about with Miller, having a reliable midrange game to fall back on when a drive dies on the vine is incredibly useful, and Jett’s projection there is more encouraging than one would think. Miller is bound to improve here with some added repetition and strength, but at nearly an entire calendar year younger, so should Howard. While his actual volume of rim pressure was significantly lower than Miller, so was his opportunity. What wasn’t lower? His efficiency as a shotmaker. 

Howard is an A-1 shotmaking prospect at 6’8” that, at times, seems to be hiding in plain sight. Shooters at this size don’t come around often, and when they do they are almost always a seasoned upperclassman gradually increasing their volume. As a teenager, Howard is already there. Outlier talents tend to produce outlier results. 

If that happens? Howard has the tools as a passer to truly capitalize on elite shotmaking. He had a solid assist rate this year for an off ball wing of 12.9, but the flashes were incredibly enticing. As a reactive passer with a solid awareness of his surroundings Howard should thrive as a connector early in his career. If the self-creation is able to develop as he grows into his frame, Jett has the height and awareness to capitalize on it. . 

Limiting Factors: Rim Pressure and Defense
Strength, Explosiveness, Defensive Activity

On the concerns side, you have to start with the physicality. Howard was an all-time poor rebounder for his height and that showed on tape. He was habitually hesitant to get into the mix of bigger bodies in the paint, even with a height advantage. 

This is where his projection as a more guard-oriented wing than forward applies. Howard lacks much of the skills required to play the three or the four, from the above mentioned rebounding or a relative lack of weakside rim protection. 

As a guard, Jett did well chasing shooters around screens on the perimeter and using his size to recover once beat. He doesn’t have the quickest feet in the world and I certainly wouldn’t want to deploy him at the point of attack, but his lack of interior value defensively feels, to an extent, insurmountable. Finding a less harmful alternative may be a better option than trying to force a square peg through a round hole.

Jett moves his feet well on the perimeter, but I would like to see him use his length more effectively. He isn’t particularly slow laterally, but often looks like it by taking steps too small to keep up with his opponent. 

As a help defender his digs were rarely impactful, but his timing was solid. He isn’t incapable of recovering to shooters, and even flashed moments of good ground coverage, but is generally unpolished in that regard. Jett was a below average defender this past year, but with added weight and refinement a passable one feels within reach. A low but meaningful bar.

This lack of strength and explosive athleticism shows itself on the offensive end as well. Jett is methodical with the ball in his hands, similar to Miller, but generates significantly less downhill pressure on his drives. He struggles to handle bumps and turn the corner on defenders in an effective way, making him even more reliant on mid-range jumpers.

It is worth noting Jett was sidelined this offseason due to sprains in both ankles he suffered during the season. That is a major hamper on one’s lower-body athleticism, and a significant reason for hope going forward. Getting healthy certainly won’t turn Jett into a rim-pressure wing, but it should help lessen the gap he needs to make up in order to operate as a functional scorer with the ball in his hands. 

My ultimate question regarding Jett is just how negative is his lack of rim pressure? His ability to create quality looks at the rim on his own was resoundingly poor, even when accounting for the injuries he was playing through. Howard was more efficient shooting off the dribble than either he or Miller were laying the ball up this past year. 

How good does his mid-range game need to be to create gravity resembling rim pressure, and how can he use that to manufacture more attempts at the rim? Howard is not an unskilled finisher, but simply did not have the physical tools to get there this year. That isn’t going to get easier against bigger and stronger athletes, and his success will almost assuredly originate in skill and manipulation rather than force.

Outliers and Outcomes

In the grand scheme of things, Howard will need to add a significant amount of size and strength to have anything resembling an on-ball role. That is far from an impossible task, it is exceedingly normal for 6’8” teenagers to gain weight as they enter their twenties, but it will need to be significant. Howard and Miller will have a similar hill to climb in that respect, though Miller is much more comfortable handling physicality at this current stage.

That lack of physicality in comparison is reflected across the court from handling bumps to rebounding to screen setting. Miller may be the thinner build, but he is the more physical prospect, and that is what makes him a significantly safer bet.

The two are more similar than given credit, like opposite sides of the same coin. Miller’s advantage in physicality and base-level shooting create a much safer floor for his NBA value, but the hill from good to great is visibly steep. 

Jett on the other hand has no such floor, where his lack of strength and explosiveness leave him a man without a country defensively. That possibility is much more realistic than with Miller, but if Jett is able to get to the level of good, you might be surprised by how quickly he becomes great.

The post Archetypes and Prototypes appeared first on Swish Theory.

The rise of the Steph Curry Warriors was an evolutionary earthquake, changing the nature of the sport quicker than a leather ball rips through a polyester net. Overnight, perimeter shotmaking became en vogue and the focus of the sport continued its way from the confines paint and out beyond the perimeter. 

Somewhere along the way, we lost the plot. A new environment meant new conditions for growth and with that came modernized valuations for incoming draft prospects. While score-first point guards and versatile forwards shot up draft boards (for good reason), that rise coincided with a dramatic decline in the valuation of traditional bigs. 

In some cases, that change was needed. Slow-footed post hubs are all but a thing of the past as the athletic requirements for the position have grown. On the other hand, some of the most valuable defensive big men in the league were drafted well below their actual value. 

From Bam Adebayo to Robert Williams or Jarrett Allen (and Walker Kessler and Jalen Duren for the brave of heart), many of the most impactful young big men in the league were drafted out of the top ten, if not the lottery entirely. 

More important than the missed opportunity of drafting said player is the gaping cavern their absence leaves within a team’s defensive identity. As you look at the best defenses across the league in Cleveland, Milwaukee, Boston or Memphis, great defensive big men continue to lead great defenses. 

Dereck Lively II represents an incredibly interesting thought experiment within this construct. If you are interested in a breakdown of his on-court strengths and weaknesses there is a scouting report released in companion with this piece. What I will be doing here is digging deeper into his concept as a player, how his season fares historically within that archetype, and what developmental context can best maximize his existing skill set. 

Reality can be hard to find when the very earth beneath your feet is constantly changing, but one thing has remained true. It is a blue world trying to contend in the NBA without a playoff-durable big man to own the paint, and that player is harder to find than you might think.

Concept: Rim Running Shotblocker

Walker Kessler, Steven Adams, Nerlens Noel, Robert Williams

The general concept of the “defense first” center is by no means a new one. Since the inception of the sport the largest person on the court has shouldered the largest defensive burden. When it comes to protecting the basket, size is always going to matter. It is not the fool-proof rule of thumb that it used to be, but its value is inherent: the larger you are the more imposing you are in contesting shots and attacking the glass.

Finding proof of concept for a player like Lively is both incredibly easy and downright impossible. The first place to start feels pretty straightforward in Walker Kessler. Kessler embodies the very hope of what Lively could be, and why it is a fairly easy bet to make. Much like Lively’s first half of the year, Kessler’s freshman season at UNC saw him struggle to earn a consistent role despite his dominating per-possession stats while on the court. 

Kessler’s meteoric rise the following season at Auburn and this year in Utah is a picture-perfect data point on why to be excited. Despite a poor context and role, Kessler’s low-minute dominance at UNC foretold genuine upside that was just a little harder to see. While Lively’s block rate didn’t re-write record books like Kessler did last year, he was incredibly impactful defending the paint and anchored one of the best defenses in college basketball. 

Offensively, the comparison becomes much trickier. Kessler’s freshman and sophomore campaigns saw a significantly larger volume of shots attempted with relatively similar efficiency. Lively’s usage rate of 12.8 would be the lowest of any first round pick in history and is genuinely without precedent. While there is no 1 for 1 comparison, there are a few players that represent a potential development path for Lively in the league. 

The first name that comes to mind when I think of steady-handed competence from the big position is Steven Adams. There was little hope for “star” upside when Adams was drafted in the lottery by the Oklahoma City Thunder, but he did grow to become a star in his role while playing a major part on some of the best teams of the 2010s. Giving your young star guard a competent and reliable roll option they can grow alongside is generally good business, for the guard, the big and the organization as a whole.

That value equation is the same for Lively, albeit in a more mobile physical package. Lively is a better vertical athlete, but a worse finisher around the basket (49% vs 58% on non-dunk rim attempts) with about ⅔ of the total scoring volume. The offensive threshold between valuable and unplayable is an incredibly thin line, and Adams just barely crossed it. Lively was a much better passer as a freshman and that skill should translate well to the next level, but for that to happen he will need to be a threat to score.

The other side of that line is Nerlens Noel, drafted with the hopes he would become the perfect modern day rim runner. He was mobile, blocked shots, got steals, had a solid assist rate with the vertical athleticism to draw fouls and dunk everything around the hoop. An ACL injury sapped a little of that high-end athleticism, but ultimately it was his lack of offensive value that derailed the lofty expectations of his career. 

Noel’s hands were an issue as a prospect and against NBA level competition that was only exacerbated. He can struggle to catch and score efficiently as a roll man and when that isn’t working there are few other places to turn. Teams aren’t going to give up five pick-and-roll alley-oops a game. 

This is where the ultimate floor for Lively resides. Noel was a significantly higher 57% on non-dunk rim attempts and his assist rate was nearly identical. Lively dunked the ball slightly more often and at least attempted to take a few threes (a surprisingly encouraging indicator for bigs who can one day kinda shoot), but the concerns are legitimate. 

If Lively isn’t able to provide a genuine threat to score as a roller there is no offensive foundation to grow upon. His defense is too good to wash out of the league, I believe that firmly, but the idea he is a sure-fire starter or even high-end rotation piece is lacking some important nuance.

On the other extreme, Robert Williiams II shows what this archetype can be if they are able to provide genuine rim pressure. Williams is an incredible defensive big that provides the Celtics real versatility as a primary rim protector or weak side rotator. 

Robert Williams is one of two big men drafted since 2017 to make an All-Defense team, but what separates him from his peers is his offensive value. Williams is a ferocious athlete with the strength to dunk through people in a way few prospects have, but it is his touch around the rim that is the foundation for his success. 

He has good hands and easily exceeds the lower requirement for touch as a roll man, which is in essence simply scoring efficiently against your typical pick and roll defense. With a proper ball handler Williams has the tools, touch and tough screen setting to tear apart traditional coverages, and that efficiency is what opens up his game as a passer. 

His offensive value is what keeps him on the court in crunch time or playoff settings, providing the foundation of minutes needed to have an All-Defense caliber season. Staying on the court is half the battle for defensive bigs these days, and that is the battle Lively will need to survive in order to truly hit his ceiling. 

That feels like an impossible task from a macro view. William’s freshman year usage was double Lively’s (23.4 vs 12.8) and touch around the rim significantly higher (61.6 vs 48.8). While that is true, the bar required for scoring volume or offensive value is not that of Robert Williams, but rather somewhere between the two. The game isn’t about finding the best possible offensive center, it is about finding one with the foundational skill required to remain on the court long enough to truly impact the course of games. Lively will do that defensively, but offensively is another question. 

Lively thrives above the rim and his 3.2 dunks per 40 minutes is an incredibly encouraging mark for someone in a spacing deprived offense. Beyond above-rim pressure there was very little substance to Lively’s scoring package. As a comparison to Williams he not only had a smaller volume of rim attempts but, more starkly, took eight (!!) shots in the midrange, compared to Williams with 105. 

That difference in assertiveness and usage is incredibly stark with both parties irreconcilably affected by their on-court context. That isn’t to say Lively would have had a similar offensive season with the 2017 Texas A&M team, but maybe the difference wouldn’t be as stark and the developmental hill to climb wouldn’t seem so steep. Lively doesn’t have to reach Williams’ level of offensive impact, but his developmental journey and on-court roll represents the path for Lively to truly hit on his upside.

Context: On-Ball Creation, Spacing, Secondary Rim Protection

Oklahoma City Thunder, Houston Rockets, Toronto Raptors, Indiana Pacers

Dereck Lively entered this college basketball season with a mountain of expectations. Lively, ESPNs #1 ranked recruit in the class of 2022, enrolled at Duke with other highly touted freshmen in Dariq Whitehead, Kyle Filipowski, Mark Mitchell and Tyrese Proctor to form one of the most decorated recruiting classes in recent memory. 

Duke began the year ranked as a top 10 team in the country on the backs of their newly-minted blue-chip freshmen, but the year quickly turned sour. It was immediately apparent that the team did not have enough spacing to survive (particularly in the absence of Dariq Whitehead), nor the on-ball creation necessary to truly maximize Lively’s skillset. 

The good news is that he will have better spacing and on-ball creation on the roster surrounding him next year regardless of which team selects him, and that should help open up some of his offensive game. But what situations give him the best chance at hitting the higher end of his potential?

Oklahoma City is the first team that comes to mind and the longer I think about it the more excited I become. SGA is a legit, A1 creator for the future and with Josh Giddey next to him they should have 48 minutes of good point guard play every night. Factor in the emergence of Jalen Williams as a true-blue wing scorer and the presence of the greatest shooting coach of all time in Chip Engelland (silent weeping), OKC has all the offensive ingredients needed to insulate and maximize Lively’s development.

Defensively, it is hard to not get excited about a frontcourt pairing of Chet Holmgren and Dereck Lively. Both have the mobility needed to play a variety of defensive schemes and switch out on the perimeter (in moderation) while being two of the best freshman shot blockers in college basketball history. I am floored as I type this, a spiritual embodiment of Ryan Reynolds’ character in The Big Short. Chet is going to shoot it (you can carve that into the streets of Bricktown, it’s happening), and in turn may be the ideal frontcourt pairing for Lively now and in the future. 

Houston offers another intriguing fit later in the teens, but comes with a caveat. There needs to be a point guard of the future in place for this to have any chance of working. This team desperately needs someone to bring a sense of structure offensively. Drafting Scoot would immediately assuage those fears, and suddenly a supporting cast of future All-Star scorer Jalen Green and complimentary two-way forwards in Jabari Smith and Tari Eason starts to look a whole lot more enticing. 

The Jabari/Tari combo is what really draws me to Houston above other fits as they, in tandem, provide all of the helpside rim protection, perimeter defense, shooting and rim pressure you could ask for next to Lively. If Houston is able to find a real point guard of the future, you would be hard pressed to find a better realistic fit in this upcoming draft. 

The fit in Toronto has, in a way, already been proven. Jakob Poeltl’s mid-season re-addition provided a backbone to their defense and a much needed safety valve for their pick and roll operators. Given time Lively’s impact could be largely similar with a tilt towards the defensive end of the floor. Poeltl is an incredibly sound defensive big with remarkable instincts, but lacking the plus length and athleticism to reach All-Defense levels consistently. Lively is not the scorer around the rim Poeltl was, but his defensive impact and potential is higher. 

This isn’t to say Lively is going to be a better player than Poeltl, that outcome would be an incredibly positive one for Lively. Even if he never reaches that level, he may provide more value to the Raptors simply by being younger with seven years of guaranteed team control. Poeltl is going to be expensive this summer and I would be shocked to see him sign elsewhere after Toronto paid such a hefty price to acquire him. Still,  it would be prudent to have a potential replacement waiting in the wings for when Scottie Barnes, OG Anunoby and Pascal Siakam all begin to negotiate new deals and the cost of Poeltl’s contract becomes prohibitive. 

Finally, Indiana is an intriguing fit for a few different reasons. The presence of Tyrese Haliburton guarantees a competent floor general for Lively to learn and grow with, particularly one that is both reliant-on and remarkable-in operating a pick and roll. Rick Carlisle’s approach in catering offensive sets to Mathurin this year is a sign his feelings toward playing rookies may have finally thawed. To help the  warming process, Lively fits incredibly cleanly into the style of basketball Carlisle teams like to play: fast pace, ball screen oriented attack with a true rim running big. 

Myles Turner may be on a new contract, but I for one would not be surprised to hear rumors he’s on the trade market by next deadline. When there is smoke there must be fire, and half a decade of burning embers don’t go out overnight. Adding a big in Lively that is both cost controlled and more befitting of their coaches game plan seems like an obvious win. I would even be intrigued to see them play together, at least initially. In the long run, his potential fit with Haliburton and Mathurin is about as clean as it gets.

Content:

How good of a defensive prospect is Lively? What is the minimum threshold of scoring volume needed to leverage short roll passing? What is the offensive value of a rim runner?

As a precursor to this piece, I spent an enormous amount of time this season combing through old prospect stat profiles, trying to figure out what indicators are actually valuable in projecting defensive success in the NBA. When it came to bigs, I came away with four specific metrics that appeared to have substantive value:

• Defensive Box +/- (DBPM)
• Block Rate (BLK%)
• Offensive Rebound Rate (OREB%)
• Age

Relatively basic statistical data points that, when used in conjunction, do a surprisingly successful job at identifying big man prospects with the potential to be impactful defenders in the league. 

Historically, Lively’s draft age of 19.33 is young for a freshman and his DBPM of 6.5 is a remarkable outlier. Lively’s DBPM ranks in the top 25 of all college players since 2008, regardless of experience or class. It is only once you factor in his relative youth, the company surrounding him on that list and the difficulty of competition he faced at Duke that the magnitude of his success begins to come into focus.

Big men take time to become impactful defenders. That is a tried and true fact, something you will hear evaluators say a thousand times every draft cycle. It’s an incredibly nuanced and difficult job that takes  preternatural feel and anticipation to reach the highest levels of impact. 

Being not just a good, but a great defensive center as an 18 year old freshman playing for a high major school simply doesn’t happen. When someone is drastically ahead of their age curve in any aspect of development, that tends to be an indicator of outlier potential. 

Lively may not be an excellent defensive big man next year in the NBA, but his macro-level production and in-season improvement defending ball screens and reading the floor defensively make me incredibly confident in his ability to solve problems over the course of his development. 

The focus then turns to the opposite side of the court. When you are as talented of a defensive prospect as Lively, playing a position where defense is your primary avenue to impact, the equation for offensive success changes. You are no longer looking for the most dominant offensive player, but simply a player with potential avenues of contributing to effective offense. 

For Lively, his rim pressure as a lob threat and in the dunker spot should be immediately translatable. He will need to add significant size and strength, but that feels like an incredibly easy bet to make for someone with his age and frame. The non-dunk finishing will need to improve greatly, but playing in an offense with a dynamic creator on-ball and spacing on the wings would go a long way in opening up the court and providing Lively easier looks around the rim. 

When looking at previous big man prospects with poor non-dunk rim efficiency, Jalen Duren (53.3%) and Bam Adebayo (48.8%) were two that stuck out. Yes, both of those guys took a lot more shots and drew fouls at a much higher rate than Lively. 

With that said, all three were incredibly effective and proficient above-rim finishers. That is where their gravity comes from, vertical spacing and relentless strength attacking the rim. Lively is much thinner than both at this age but is strong for his frame and markedly taller than both. If he is able to catalyze that strength as he grows into his frame, most of these problems will fix themselves.  

The key point here is magnitude: Dereck Lively does not need to become an elite finisher to succeed. He simply needs to be good enough, when accounting for his above-rim finishing, to be a legitimate threat to score as a roller. That feels like a reasonable projection to make and one that could pay major dividends down the line. 

The offensive value of an effective rim runner is a nuanced thing, but something that can play a large role in creating a positive environment for developing creators. A good screener can be used in a variety of ways. Screens are set in just about every single possession, be it in a high pick and roll or to free an off ball shooter or to screen the man defending the screener of a different action. NBA teams love to set screens and despite how opaque it sounds, powerful and timely screen setting combined with quick processing and the sight-lines of a seven-footer make for a sneakily impactful offensive player to complement the defensive fireworks. 

That isn’t going to require some outlandish skill development or unlikely improvement. Lively was a much better passer than the numbers suggest, and the numbers were actually solid! Being able to put the ball on the deck out of a DHO, score in the post or stretch the floor would be an incredible development, none are a necessary one for Lively to truly hit as a prospect. Improved foul drawing, the strength to finish through contact, a reliable push shot in the paint: those are what will determine Lively’s success.

Like all good things in life development isn’t going to come easily, but it is far from an unreasonable task. There aren’t a multitude of areas that need to see vast development. The scope is much more narrow, and in turn the spotlight is that much brighter. 

Cultivating an environment suitable for that kind of growth will require structures in place to support him throughout the process. Those supports aren’t permanent, they are just meant to help guide the process during its most vulnerable phases. Dereck Lively has the foundation of skills to one day withstand even the most violent of earthquakes, he just needs time to establish his roots. 

The post Dereck Lively II and the Big Man Blues appeared first on Swish Theory.

The date is October 31st, 1986. 

The Oprah Winfrey Show had just begun its first season on television, gas was $0.89/gallon, Europe was grappling with the environmental disaster of the Chernobyl nuclear plant meltdown and the United States was still recovering from the shock and horror of the Challenger explosion broadcast live on National Television. 

This was the last time the San Antonio Spurs began an NBA season in a situation like the one they currently find themselves in. There was little reason for hope entering the year, the team had nothing resembling a star on their roster and the road to acquiring one went only one way, lottery luck. The team finished the year 28-54 with the 4th worst record in the league before finding themselves in the most fortuitous of situations, at the top of the draft with a generationally talented big man waiting to hear his name called. 

The selection of David Robinson changed the trajectory of the franchise for the next 30 years, even if he didn’t debut in the league until 1989. In the two years after his selection the team continued to lose but hope remained on the horizon, sailing the ocean blue aboard the deck of the USS Stormes. 

The first seven years of the Robinson-led Spurs were prosperous yet ultimately futile on their journey towards title contention. It wasn’t until the 1996-97 season where the team suffered a rash of injuries that the Spurs found themself in the lottery race once again, culminating in an unprecedented opportunity to add another franchise cornerstone to their existing core. The rest is now, quite literally, basketball history. 

Here we are 36 years later, and the team has finally found their way back to where they started, entering a season where the definition of success is intertwined with a random game of chance.  While the immediate outlook for this team may appear bleak, the current foundation of this Spurs roster is uniquely constructed for one of the more interesting tanking experiments in recent memory. This roster is not lacking in developmental talent nor is it lacking in youth. There are pieces currently on this roster that may prove to be invaluable to a competitive Spurs team in the future. First, they need to find their North Star, a talent the team can revolve around on their road back to contention.

Many teams entering a rebuild strip the team down to the studs and send off their parts to the highest bidder. From the Process 76ers to the Sam Presti Thunder, rebuilds have taken a new shape: get rid of everything that isn’t tied down and accumulate as much draft equity as possible.    

The Spurs are trying to walk the thin line between a total tear-down and a soft reboot, a decision that could prove to be fortuitous with the help of a little lottery luck. This team has roster depth 2 through 5 that few other tanking teams in the league have with young starting-caliber players across every position. With modern wings, versatile defenders, perimeter shooters and connective pieces San Antonio has many of the parts required to build a competitive team. The roster is flush with complimentary pieces that still have room for substantive growth. What they don’t have at this moment in time is a creator, someone they can build their roster around, a star to give them their identity. 

San Antonio was one of the worst teams in the clutch last season, even with Dejounte Murray leading the charge. They had very few avenues to create easy offense when they needed it, resulting in heartbreaking losses and blown leads all throughout the 2021-22 season. Teams can remain competitive the first 46 minutes of a game through scheme and effort but when the going gets tough in the final minutes of a close game you need someone to put the ball in the hoop. Not having that piece may be the single most valuable tool for a team in the tank race. 

In this piece I will be diving into each and every player on the roster and looking at not only how they project to perform this season but the role they play in the Spurs rebuild as a whole. There are a lot of pieces to the puzzle that already exist on this roster, they just need to be put into their proper place.

Every roster needs a keystone, a foundational piece to build around, but what happens if the rest of the structure is already in place by the time it arrives? It’s time to start building.      

https://open.spotify.com/track/232OU9BBulVY9PrCBH778j?si=b7de6b2d15344556

When Opportunity Rings

This summer has had a strange feeling to it, in many ways the final steps of a journey that began over 4 years ago.

On a larger scale, this is the inevitable end that we first saw glimpses of back in 2011 when the Spurs lost a physical first– round series against the Grizzlies. The team finished the regular season at 61-21, enough to earn the top seed in the West but father time began to rear its head, resulting in 1 of only 5 1-8 seed upsets in NBA history. Manu was struggling to stay on the court consistently, Tim was sauntering around with a bad leg and Tony wasn’t enough to keep the championship dreams afloat.

That team was granted an extension on their tanking deadline by adding a budding superstar in Kawhi Leonard, but a state of perpetual contention was not meant to be. The team was able to rally around their existing structure to build one of the most euphoric sports moments I will ever experience. Their title season in 2014 was as much about the existing Big 3 as it was their newest superstar, creating an enormous expectation even after the existing pillars began to fall. As the Big 3 rode off into the sunset, the team continued to build for contention, but unbeknownst to them a certain Slim Reaper was looking to change teams, ultimately creating the most overwhelming collection of talent in NBA history. The way was shut.

There just wasn’t enough in the cupboard after two decades of contention. The team had a true-blue star but little else to build around in the future. Ultimately, it was not enough to retain their greatest developmental success story.

When Kawhi forced his way out of San Antonio the trade market looked much different than it does today. Teams held on to first– round picks, even protected ones, like precious family heirlooms. Jimmy Butler was traded for Dario Saric and Robert Covington; Paul George was traded for Victor Oladipo and a fledgling Domantas Sabonis with no first-round picks conveyed in either deal.

The Kawhi trade was the end of an era, the last star trade of a buyer’s market. Conditions then shifted to favor sellers by the fortunate circumstances bestowed upon OKC and New Orleans, along with the remarkable success of the Kawhi trade for Toronto.

That trade, even considering the trade environment of the time, was disappointing. This is not to say the package received was lacking value or was even a poor deal given what was available. Reports throughout the trade saga and after confirmed Boston would not trade either of Brown or Tatum, the Lakers would not trade Lonzo or Ingram, the Clippers would only give up Tobias Harris and one of their firsts (they owned both 12+13), and that was just about the entire market. The deal itself was not bad given the options out there, but it was bad in that it delayed the inevitable. It avoided making the tough but necessary decision to rebuild.

The team toiled in mediocrity every season since, but with each passing year they drew closer and closer to a true rebuild. This mini-era started with a hard fought seven-game series against the Nuggets in 2019 and has gone downhill ever since. They were never able to get over the play-in hump due to a roster construction that simply lacked the two-way players necessary for making a real playoff run.

Now, here we are after four years of chasing playoff (or play-in) appearances with nary a whiff of contention. Yet, the future is as bright and exciting as we have seen since an ill-fated encounter with the Georgian who shall not be named. What is different this time around in the wake of a franchise altering trade? Despite the same feeling of angst over the loss of a homegrown star, this time a direction was firmly decided upon, and the compensation was much more in line with the value of the player being traded. San Antonio was finally able to reap the rewards of the trade market they helped to create. 

There is a very real possibility that owning the Atlanta draft from 2025-2027 (two unprotected firsts and an unprotected swap) becomes one of the highest valued trade assets on the market. Dejounte has two years remaining on his deal, and if things don’t go according to plan the situation in Atlanta could get ugly fast.

Now there is certainly the chance those picks end up being in the late 20s and Atlanta is a genuine contender in perpetuity, but that is far from set in stone. Either way, the Spurs will have the draft assets needed to make nearly any move they deem necessary over the next few years. They own all their firsts, the 2025 protected first from Chicago, 2023 protected first from Charlotte and the above-mentioned Atlanta picks. Their value to San Antonio is more than just what they will become, it is about the flexibility it grants them before they even convey.

For the first time since 1997 the Spurs will enter the great abyss of the tank race, and while the roster may lack an MVP level talent a la David Robinson, there are a few similarities I find to be important when analyzing the path forward for the club. There is plenty of young talent on this roster already as the team has spent the last four years drafting and developing players who should have long careers in the league. Despite this collection of talent San Antonio may end up with the worst record in the league and a chance at landing a franchise altering talent.

This is a 2022-23 San Antonio Spurs encyclopedia: we will be covering anything and everything you need to know about one of the league’s premier franchises finally turning the page and entering the tank race. Can a team be built to lose and built to rebound at the same time? Let’s find out.  

Waiting in the Wings

This current roster is bereft of “star” talent and is most likely going to finish in the bottom five of the standings this year. While the idea of a full blown rebuild may sound bleak to some, the foundation is laid for a quicker turnaround than one might expect. Even with Dejounte this team lacked a straw that truly stirred the drink, needing a true 1A to push them over the play-in hump. This draft is as good as any to find that piece, and the team’s decision to maximize their chances of doing so by trading the one true advantage creator on the roster is, by all accounts, the best opportunity the Spurs have to create a true contender.

Most rebuilds are a multi-year project as the team is stripped down to the studs to begin the painstaking process of starting from scratch. Fortunately for San Antonio there are pieces on the roster that project as long-term impact rotation players, pieces that should easily fit on the next great Spurs team, all while lacking the necessary skills to drag this team out of the doldrums for this upcoming season.

Each of the players in this section are by no means lacking upside, but their existing skill sets are more conducive to success when playing off a star. Their importance to this team is not tied to the small percentage of outcomes where they themselves become a star but in their ability to jump-start the journey back to respectability once one is added. This isn’t to undersell their potential, any one of these guys could hit in a franchise altering way, but even if they were to do so their growth shouldn’t drastically change the outlook of the team this season.  These four should allow the Spurs to have their tanking cake and eat it too. 

Keldon Johnson

The case for growth from Keldon is a simple, albeit difficult one. He played much of last year in an off-ball role with relatively limited opportunity to explore the studio space with the ball in his hands. Coming off a four-year $80 million extension there will be a much greater investment in Keldon moving forward, both financially and developmentally.

In his one season with the Austin Spurs, Keldon looked like a different player, running a ton of pick and rolls and playing as the primary scoring option for the team. He scored 20 points a game while shooting 60% on 2s. He was a battering ram getting to the rim, stronger than anyone he came across even as a 19-year-old rookie playing against grown men. Keldon wasn’t a proactive playmaker, but he showed the ability to make basic reads out of ball-screen actions, an area in which he has continued to improve in San Antonio despite an increased difficulty to get easy buckets.  

Keldon’s on-ball creation has not translated to the next level as he has experienced more than a few issues finishing in traffic and dealing with contests from true rim protectors. It hasn’t been the smoothest sailing within the arc, but his growth shooting the ball this season was nothing short of remarkable. If he is forcing real closeouts he becomes an entirely different type of offensive weapon, and one that would fit with nearly any lineup construction in the league.

The path forward looks a lot cleaner now that the shot has started to fall. Any improvement in off-the-dribble shot creation or finishing craft could push him into fringe All-Star consideration. His defensive impact certainly has a long way to go, particularly in terms of rotational awareness, but he is at the very least able to bang with bigger forwards and has shown flashes of promise guarding on the perimeter. He doesn’t have the instincts or measurables of a true impact defender but getting to the point where he is no longer negatively impactful feels well within the realm of possibility. 

Keldon entered camp with a dislocated shoulder and a slimmer frame, telling media he dropped over 20 pounds this off-season. That is an enormous development that should not be understated when projecting his role on this team and beyond. He has never been the fleetest of foot on either end, shedding this weight could help him on both in terms of on-ball creation and defensive impact. Keldon is a natural wing and seeing the front office, coaching staff and player aligned on that front is an overwhelmingly positive thing. If he can improve his first step, shiftiness or defensive mobility he could be in store for a larger growth leap than originally anticipated.

At this point in time Keldon is ideally suited as a secondary scorer, someone who feasts off advantages created for him. There is a chance he blossoms into a true initiator, but Keldon doesn’t need that high of an outcome to remain valuable. He will look great next to any star he plays with through his competitive nature, floor spacing and fearlessness attacking closeouts. Keldon doesn’t need to be the star of the team, but he may need one beside him to truly flourish. 

Devin Vassell

The impact Devin brings goes much further than efficiency numbers or the box score. He hasn’t put up enormous stats offensively and in reality, hasn’t even shot that well considering his billing entering the league. What he has done is provide an ideal complementary skill set for any starting five in basketball. He isn’t a lock-down defender on the ball, but he is more than adequate defending 1-3 while possessing great instincts as a help defender on the perimeter and at times as a secondary or tertiary rim protector.

His defensive skillet is an ideal fit in any positive context as he works as a catalyst that is more effective when surrounded with the proper ingredients. Unfortunately, he did not have said ideal context in San Antonio playing next to both Keldon and Doug McDermott but that may be beginning to change with the roster additions the team made this summer.

On the offensive end, Vassell again provides a tailor-made complementary skill set with his ability to space the floor, shoot off movement and keep the ball moving. There have been real flashes of shot-making off the bounce and even some fun passing when getting to initiate some of the offense, but his ability to get to and finish around the rim has been less than stellar. With an increased role in the offense and a large burden on-ball we should learn a lot about Devin’s game this season. His shot creation package deserves more opportunity for growth.

While there is real upside here on both sides of the ball, what makes Vassell such a valuable cog in the rebuild is that there are a variety of potential outcomes where he provides a positive impact.  As is, Devin is a positive spacing the floor in spot-up and movement situations while providing impactful team defense. If he shows any improvement in his handle, allowing him to provide additional rim pressure or shot creation, the value add becomes exponentially greater. Conquer the complex art of screen navigation? Now we might have something special.

Vassell will have a greater impact on-court as the pieces around him improve in quality due to his already proficient complementary skill set. Couple that with his potential on both ends of the court and there are few players on this roster better suited to be a foundational piece of this rebuild going forward. Vassell should see a major leap in his usage next season, and we will get a clearer picture as to what his future holds. Regardless of how this season goes, Vassell will be an important part of the puzzle this front office is looking to build.  

Jeremy Sochan

Drafting Sochan at ninth overall this season was hardly surprising given his projected fit with the existing young core. This team has desperately needed a positive defensive presence at the four for as long as I can remember and they finally took the plunge with their first top-10 pick this millennia.

Sochan was relatively unheralded entering his freshman year at Baylor, ranking outside of the top 100 in his recruiting class. He jumped on to the draft scene early in the season with impressive displays guarding in space, rotating on the perimeter, initiating sets and even hitting a few turnaround jumpers.

The offense has a very long way to go, but there is reason for hope. Jeremy Sochan is anything but bashful and his confidence to continue to put up shots and play hard even when the ball isn’t going through the hoop will go a long way. It will take a while before he can score at any kind of an impactful level, if ever, but in the meantime his existing skill set will allow him to play as a connector on both ends. He makes quick decisions with the ball, reads the court well and (in what will almost certainly make him a fan favorite from day one), plays with competitiveness and effort every second he is on the court.

He is aggressive when crashing the glass, can switch onto both smaller and larger players while intuitively knowing where to be at all times. What he lacks in run and jump athleticism he makes up for in lateral quickness and anticipation. The Spurs started Keldon and Doug McDermott together for much of this season and it led to some atrocious defensive results. Sochan offers a different look, someone at the forward spot whose defensive motor never stops, finding ways to win battles somewhere in the margins.

Despite being surrounded by players like Dejounte Murray, Derrick White, Devin Vassell, Josh Richardson and Jakob Poeltl, the weight of two negative defenders playing together at the forward spots all but sunk the chances of an above average defense. The position is too valuable defensively to get nothing from it and adding Sochan should help tremendously. His rotational soundness and competitive nature should be synergistic playing next to Keldon and Devin rather than the previous parasitic roster construct.  Even if the scoring never truly comes around, Sochan should have no problem seeing the court and providing a positive impact for the entirety of his career in San Antonio.

What a Young Vet Brings

While the four players above would be considered the “young core” on the roster, they are not the only players that line up well with the rebuild timeline. Not every young player needs to have some amount of “star” potential to be a valuable piece on a team starting from scratch. Young basketball teams need structure and competence for the foundational pieces to have a proper chance at growth, and the three players in this section offer that while conforming to this newfound agenda.

There is decidedly less upside and team control with this group of players, but they fit the bill for what a team needs when filling out a rotation. I would be hesitant to move on from any of them until the waters become a little less murky, and even then the price would be high. 

There are certain roles every team needs to fill if they hope to be competitive night in and night out. The Spurs have a few of these pieces already in place and it might be wise to keep them around. Every great Spurs team has been built on cohesion, something built over years of learning habits and forging an identity. Determining the right pieces to grow with is the first step of that journey.   

While the four players above would be considered the “young core” on the roster, they are not the only players that line up well with the rebuild timeline. Not every young player needs to have some amount of “star” potential to be a valuable piece on a team starting from scratch. Young basketball teams need structure and competence for the foundational pieces to have a proper chance at growth, and the three players in this section offer that while conforming to this newfound agenda.

There is decidedly less upside and team control with this group of players, but they fit the bill for what a team needs when filling out a rotation. I would be hesitant to move on from any of them until the waters become a little less murky, and even then the price would be high. 

There are certain roles every team needs to fill if they hope to be competitive night in and night out. The Spurs have a few of these pieces already in place and it might be wise to keep them around. Every great Spurs team has been built on cohesion, something built over years of learning habits and forging an identity. Determining the right pieces to grow with is the first step of that journey.   

Jakob Poeltl

Jakob has been solid since the day he arrived in San Antonio. Not the longest or most explosive athlete, Poeltl is another guy who wins with anticipation and awareness. His play as a roller this year was encouraging; he may struggle at the line but is impressive finishing around the basket for someone who is primarily a below the rim finisher.

What interests me most about Jakob has been his passing growth in recent years. He averaged nearly 3 assists a game this year and in retrospect that number feels low.  Jakob was one of the league leaders in touches at the elbow last season and was consistently asked to read the floor and make smart decisions with the ball. Jakob was much more of a fulcrum for the offense than years past and the results were largely positive. He made great passes to shooters as a roll man and as a hub at the top of the key throughout the year.

While he isn’t getting guarded as a shooter, allowing him to run a  DHO forces his man to stretch out to Jakob or risk a wide open three with no avenue to contest.  Once that happens, he can make passes or even put the ball on the deck and beat his man to the rim when given proper spacing.  Seeing a seven-footer dribble into a body-contorting layup isn’t something you see every day and offers a unique avenue for usage. It’s a fun way to try and space the floor with a center who can’t shoot, and it helps open up the court for his passing beyond simply finding the shooter involved in the DHO.

With the recent departures of Derrick White, Dejounte Murray and Lonnie Walker, this team has lost an enormous chunk of playmaking. Leaning on a steady vet presence like Jakob to create offense in a more nontraditional way may be the best option for creating a system functional enough to help develop the young wings on the roster.

Beyond his current fit on the court, Jakob is someone I hope sticks around through the rebuild. Yes, he will be an unrestricted free agent this summer, but he will be entering a marketplace where big men of his caliber make a modest amount more than the mid-level but rarely anything approaching $20 million/year. I would be doing anything and everything I could to extend him before the season starts (4/51 is roughly the max they can offer him in an extension this off-season). A deal in the ballpark of 4/50 to 4/65 seems like a workable construct for both sides.  Despite his inability to shoot the ball Jakob is an above average starting center and should continue to be through the life of his next contract.

Even if the team were to win the lottery and draft Victor Wembanyama, Poeltl would fill a valuable role on the team. Any team that drafts Victor next year will make keeping him healthy a priority. Nobody is going to trot Wemby out as a 19-year-old and ask him to guard true centers night in and night out as there is no benefit to putting him through that kind of physical grind. On the offensive end the fit should be just as smooth if the shot continues to improve, and his recent performance overseas certainly helps that potentiality. 

Jakob is never going to be so good he wins you too many games or stands in the way of a young prospect getting minutes, but he is good enough to be a driving force to continuity and competence on both sides of the ball. That is exactly the kind of cost controlled 26-year-old I want around my rebuilding team. I would understand trading him to continue adding future assets, but it would take more than a late 1st round pick for me to feel comfortable moving him and I don’t see that kind of package on the market this season. 

You don’t have to sell every good basketball player in a rebuild and certainly not players that still fit in your existing timeline.  Having an above average starting center already in place will go a long way in creating a competent structure on this roster throughout the rebuilding process.

Tre Jones

Jones, a second-round pick entering the final season of his 3-year contract, would be my guess for who is spearheading the Spurs offense come October.

If there is one thing this team is lacking, it is rim pressure. While Vassell has shown an ability to create some offense off the bounce it has resulted in almost exclusively contested dribble jumpers. White and Murray were the only two Spurs to consistently self-create rim attempts last year; with both gone the team will need someone to initiate sets and get two feet in the paint for their drive-and-kick offensive system to have any semblance of success. Despite his relatively diminutive frame, Tre is the best bet to provide that on a consistent basis this season.

Unlike anyone else on this roster, Tre has spent his entire life playing point and running an offense. He was an All-American at Duke his sophomore year where he was one of the best players in the country. At the pro level he played well, leading the team in Austin his rookie season before slowly earning a spot in the rotation this year, filling in the injury gaps as they arose.

Tre isn’t going to be draining pull-up jumpers or leading the team in scoring, but the skillset he provides fits like a glove with what this roster needs. He is on the smaller side but is incredibly quick with more than enough craft getting to and finishing at the rim, putting defenses into rotation and getting the ball moving around the perimeter. Tre finished the year with a nearly 5:1 assist-to-turnover ratio, a remarkable number that placed him at 4^th in the entire league. He very rarely makes poor decisions with the ball in his hands and has done an excellent job of running the offense when given the chance, particularly in transition settings.

At his best, Tre is the perfect game manager PG that should find a role as a third guard on any roster. The shooting needs to come along but there is reason to be optimistic. He has good touch on his floater in the lane, was a good mid-range shooter in college and is a career 80% FT shooter. He doesn’t have to create threes off the bounce consistently, but if he can punish defenders for going under screens even occasionally, that would be a huge win for his on-court impact.

On the defensive side of the ball Jones has the lateral quickness and pesky hands to be an impactful defender at the point of attack but his screen navigation will need to take major strides for that to truly come to fruition. He has some cool moments sticking his hands in and disrupting ball handlers but too often runs directly into screens or ends up trailing the ball handler with no avenue to disrupt the play. Given his smaller frame and limited wingspan, recovering to contest from behind isn’t an option. For Jones to truly be a good point-of-attack defender he will need to be excellent slithering through screens and staying with ball-handlers. Whether that is in the cards remains to be seen, but it is one thing I will be looking for as the season kicks into gear.

Tre strikes me as someone who should be on this team for the foreseeable future. He is entering his third year in the league but has made it into this “Young Vet” section by the soundness of his game and the steadying presence he should provide to this young core. He will be a useful rotation piece as a bench guard for a good team one day but in the meantime his ball security, rim pressure and heady defense make him a great fit alongside any of the young wings on the roster. Players need proper context in order to develop and while Tre may not project as the long-term answer to “Who is the Point Guard of the future?” question, his steady-handed competence should help put Keldon, Devin and Sochan in a better developmental context this season.

Isaiah Roby

Roby was an intriguing addition to the roster this off-season. He had a solid run with OKC the past two years and is the kind of player I have been wanting the Spurs to sign for nearly a decade.

NBA defense is a complicated mess of variables that can be difficult to distinguish from one another, but if one thing has proven true in San Antonio over the last four years it is that having rim protection and point of attack defense alone is not enough to build a playoff caliber defense.

Dejounte and Derrick White made up what was possibly the best defensive backcourt in the league to begin last season with Jakob Poeltl manning the paint as a Top-10 rim protector, but even with those three on the court the Spurs struggled to cobble together a league average defense. These three musketeers could not do the job alone and ultimately were sunk by significantly below league average forward defense. It didn’t help they lacked a good option for rolling out small-ball lineups to try and keep up offensively.

Roby may not solve all these issues and by no means is he a flawless defensive player, but he does offer a package of skills this team has desperately needed for a long time. He is an athletic forward who thrived the past two years playing at the five in small ball lineups. OKC was by no means a winning context, but he was far and away their best option at the center spot for a few different reasons.

Roby moves incredibly well for someone his size. His flexibility on drives was impressive and he had flashes of finishing craft around the hoop. Most NBA big men cannot keep up with him on the perimeter and he was able to use his handle to get to the rim in advantageous situations. He became a much more effective shooter from beyond the arc this year and that progress will need to continue in the Lone Star State for him to have a similar offensive impact.

He’s shown an ability to pass out of the short-roll and was largely successful as a dive man playing in OKC. He has a size disadvantage playing at the five, but his length and athleticism help make up for the size mismatch when finishing in the paint. He isn’t someone I would ever want starting at the five, but he should allow for the team to throw out some funky bench lineups with defensive versatility, something San Antonio has been unable to do in the recent past.

Roby is a decent rim protector, event creator and rebounder for a hybrid big and his athleticism should allow for some interesting usage on the defensive side of the floor. In the grand scheme of things, he was put in a good situation to develop on-court in OKC but, due to their roster constraints, was put in some compromising positions he shouldn’t have to deal with on a more complete roster. Roby is the kind of guy I love having around in a rebuild; young and affordable with an understanding for the game and how to use his body that can translate in a multitude of lineups. He isn’t someone I would project to start for the next good Spurs team, but I think he has more than proved to be a capable rotation piece at the NBA level. Having functional athletes at the forward spot is an incredibly important aspect of teambuilding and this off-season showed a newfound commitment to finding those missing pieces. The Spurs didn’t morph into the Toronto Raptors overnight but adding multiple players that can feasibly guard opposing 4s is an enormous step toward building an effective defense in the future.

Taking Upside Swings

San Antonio entered the draft this year with three first- round picks, something I would not have believed to start the season. While the team took a safer approach with their first pick in taking Jeremy Sochan, they swung for the fences with their next two selections. Those picks, coupled with a heady signing last off-season, will round out this upside swing section. 

The success of the rebuild goes beyond the development of these three, but it could look drastically different if even one is able to reach a higher-end outcome. Taking calculated risks is the name of the game for small market teams with little avenue to acquire a star in the free agent market. While they are much more of a gamble than a sure thing, sometimes all you need is a little luck.

Malaki Branham

Branham was one of the names rising up draft boards as the college season ended and for good reason.  He had one of the most efficient freshman seasons scoring the basketball in recent memory at 14 points per game with shooting splits of 50/42/83.  Be it out of isolation, running a pick and roll or spotting up on the perimeter, Branham put the ball in the hoop at an eye-catching rate, consistently torching Big 10 defenses the second half of the season.

Upside is an interesting and complicated term to define. Many people gravitate towards athleticism when talking about players who have substantial growth potential, but it is rarely that simple. I tend to look towards players who have outlier indicators, from athleticism to coordination to shooting touch. Outlier growth potential is the proverbial Waldo for which you are searching when projecting who could outperform their draft position. Branham’s touch fits the bill, as few players enter the league with such a positive shooting projection. Branham’s ability to shoot, regardless of the contest, offers the potential for unexpected growth..

He is going to shoot the ball, but to what degree? Will he develop into someone who can consistently create his own shot? Is he going to be able to hit pull up threes with regularity? Branham’s touch is such an outlier it is hard not to project development in other areas. Does the touch forebode future handle development? There allure of pull-up shot making potential is there, but there will need to be some amount of unexpected improvement in his handle.

There are two things I will be looking for this season when watching Branham, starting with the growth of his handle. It was functional at the college level for what he was asked to do but he very rarely self-created attempts at the rim and doesn’t have much of a space creation bag. Is he going to be able to dribble against NBA level defenders closing out to his jumper? Will he be able to run a pick and roll without losing control of the ball from a well-timed dig? Is he going to be able to operate in confined spaces?

Handle development is not something that comes overnight but it is possible with proper time and attention. For Branham to hit his highest-level outcomes he is going to need to not only create space for jumper but create advantages for others. He is an effective and willing passer, but passing windows close when you don’t put the defense into rotation. If his creation doesn’t improve to that level, he should still be a positive offensive player simply from the floor spacing he provides.   

The last question revolves around his defensive impact. He was okay defending in isolation at Ohio State but really struggled to navigate screens both on and off-ball. If the potential for becoming an on-ball creator offensively begins to look less likely he will need to become an average defender at worst to be a high impact rotation piece. Unless we are talking about the elite, offensive specialists need to have some amount of defensive impact to truly contribute to winning basketball, particularly in a playoff setting. Branham has a skill set that could translate into a productive complimentary role with time, but will he have the necessary growth defensively to make that worthwhile for his team? 

Blake Wesley

Watching Notre Dame basketball this season was quite the roller coaster, an up and down experience captained by one Blake Wesley. Outside of Jaden Ivey there may not have been anyone else in this class that was as effective at getting into the paint as Wesley. Amongst High-Major athletes that attempted at least 150 shots at the rim last season Wesley had the 10^th lowest assisted percentage at 27%. There is no skill more important to a competent NBA offense than rim pressure, something this current Spurs roster exceedingly lacks.

Wesley is an interesting fit alongside Devin Vassell as he provides a needed downhill spark. The only issue with his college tape was how the ball just did not go through the hoop as often as you would like, and with a shooting split of 47/30/66, that may be an understatement. Wesley ranked second to last in rim efficiency amongst all drafted players, shooting a paltry 51.2%.

This season is going to be an incredibly interesting one for Wesley and where he spends most of his time will be telling as to how the team views his starting point. This roster needs someone with his ability to get to the rim and force defensive rotations but more than that, they need an offensive system that is conducive to positive development for their young wings. 

Wesley was a whirlwind of energy at Notre Dame and while it led to some astounding highlights there is reason to wonder how well it immediately translates to NBA basketball. His shot is going to require serious refinement over the next few years, but he is not shy about getting up shots despite his relative inefficiency. Giving the keys to Wesley is an interesting proposition that would likely help the Spurs towards their goal of obtaining the highest possible draft pick, but it may not be best for his development or the teammates around him.

Decision making is going to make or break Wesley’s time here in San Antonio; if he can be trusted to find open teammates and trim the fat from his shot diet he will fit like a glove in this offensive system. Wesley’s development as a creator is the biggest variable in the direction of this rebuild. If he hits, the team has their point guard of the future and one that fits seamlessly with their surrounding talent. If not, it may be difficult for him to find a consistent spot in the rotation moving forward, even on a rebuilding team.

Wesley’s on-court projected impact is buoyed by his defensive effort and intensity. Very few guards with his level of usage and lack of experience can provide a positive impact on the defensive end, making his season at Notre Dame all the more impressive. There are certainly some loose moments, but his lateral athleticism, length and anticipation allow him to disrupt an offense in a variety of ways. He will need to grow in terms of consistency, but if he is able to continue to grow, we may be looking at the next great Spurs defender at the point guard spot, following in the footsteps of the often-comped Dejounte Murray.

I am a Wesley believer and hope he gets time this year to work through some of the kinks, even if that time is best spent in Austin rather than San Antonio. He’s the kind of upside swing this team needed to take, and fortunately the Spurs have a wealth of experience in developing skinny, lightning quick guards with a penchant for flashy highlights. The necessary growth is going to take time and will be a bumpy road at times, but the confidence and energy that Wesley exudes on the court should help him to weather the storms of his development path.

Zach Collins

Collins was signed in San Antonio last off-season in a deal that was relatively controversial at the time. Still only 23, the former top 10 pick had his career derailed by injuries and spent nearly 2 full seasons on the sidelines before suiting up for the team midway through last season. His first year in San Antonio was not particularly effective due to the sheer amount of rust that needed to be worked off, but the flashes were there of what once made him one of the more intriguing young big men in the game.

Collins has the potential to be versatile on both ends of the court, stretching the floor on offense and making good passing reads while defending the rim and switching out on to the perimeter. The only problem is, he didn’t truly excel in any of these areas last year. In fact, every area will need serious improvement to become functional at an NBA level. 

As we enter the new season the thing I will be watching most closely is his how his body has recovered. Staying healthy will remain a concern for the foreseeable future, but beyond that, is he going to look more comfortable moving out on the court?  He seemed to have lost some of his lateral quickness after recovering from a series of lower body injuries, but with a fully healthy off-season there is hope he could return closer to his previous form.

His shot from the perimeter is another area that will need to make strides over the off-season. Collins is not a particularly efficient scorer in the paint for someone of his size and for him to have a positive offensive impact it would help to be a viable threat from distance. Having a center that can legitimately space the floor is worth its weight in gold, especially when trying to open the floor for more offensively limited wings and guards, but that is a high bar to reach.

Will Collins ever be able to shoot well enough to stretch opposing bigs away from the rim? The answer to that is a resounding “maybe,” although it is admittedly less likely to happen than the inverse. The shot looks good mechanically but there is a serious lack of confidence taking it that may be more indicative of his actual level as a shooter. It could happen, but there is a reason shooting centers are such a valuable resource. There just aren’t many players in the league who can do it at an impactful level. 

Collins is the ultimate second draft upside swing, if he is able to find his way back to the developmental arc he flashed in Portland it changes the entire dynamic of the roster.  It would allow for the team to shop Jakob Poeltl with the knowledge of having a feasible replacement already in house, a replacement with the potential to allow for more versatile schemes on both ends of the court.  By no means is that the likely outcome, but the potential reward makes the gamble all the more palatable. 

Valuing Short Term Flings

These guys aren’t going to be here when the Spurs exit their rebuild and start to make a run at the playoffs, but they still offer value to this team in the immediate. Having steady vets to set the tone for a young team is incredibly important for any rebuild and this one is no different.  

There is some amount of positional overlap with the vets in this section and the young guys the team is looking to develop. Their presence may limit the amount of playing time for some of the prospects on the roster, but they are not without worth to this team or, hopefully one day, on the trade market.

Doug McDermott

There is certainly value to having someone like McDermott on a team that is lacking scoring punch, even if his fit next to Keldon in the frontcourt is questionable at best. From the jump last year, you could tell the team was hell-bent on heavily involving McDermott in the offense and with that came mixed results. He endured a few brutal cold spells shooting from the floor but still ended the year at over 42% from three, an impressive number given how inconsistent it felt during the season.

He provided some much needed spacing early in the year, but his offensive impact did not make up for his negative defensive contributions. McDermott is not particularly good attacking the glass on either end of the court and was put in a TON of ball screen actions by opposing offenses. He provided a target for teams to attack both in space and off screens while the surrounding roster lacked the necessary help on the wings needed to make up for it. A lineup with Keldon and Doug at the forward spots simply did not get it done this year and while he does offer a release valve for an offense stuck in a rut, I would hope we see less of that combination in the coming season.

McDermott is signed for nearly $14 million per year over the next two years. That isn’t a terrible contract and is one that could easily be moved to a contender looking to improve their spacing, but at what cost? I highly doubt any team would be willing to give up even a heavily protected first to trade for him unless significant dead money were to come back to SA. Taking on bad money is a viable option considering the current state of the franchise, but it does make finding a workable deal more difficult.

Very few players choose to come to San Antonio in free agency and McDermott is one of the more noteworthy signings for the franchise in the last decade. That must be considered when cobbling together trade machine deals looking to offload the vet. In my eyes it would be bad practice to ship him out for little return unless he is particularly interested in playing on a different team.

Relationships matter in the league more than fans want to admit; there is a reason the team gave Pau Gasol a three-year deal at the tail end of his NBA career despite only having played one season in the Silver and Black. He chose to come to San Antonio when he didn’t have to, and the team wanted to repay that trust. I would expect to see a similar ethos in regards to McDermott’s future with the franchise. As much as I would love to lean into the young players we added at his position, I think the team will be hard pressed to move him. For a franchise that highly values character and loyalty, it’s easy to see why.

Only time will tell, but I expect him to be back next season unless he is a part of a larger deal and that is perfectly fine. As long as he is not playing 30+ minutes a game he should provide value on a roster devoid of spacing at the four and is by all means a pleasant person to have around. The sky is not falling if McDermott is still on the roster entering next off-season when he will become an expiring deal with significantly more trade value to opposing teams around the league.

Josh Richardson

When Derrick White was traded to Boston at the deadline this season it was one of the more shocking trades in recent Spurs memory. White had cemented himself as a fan favorite both on the court and in the community. As one of the most amicable people to ever come through San Antonio, it was difficult to see him traded but the move signaled this front office was finally seeing the writing on the wall.

The return, a first-round pick that would later become Blake Wesley, a Top-1 protected pick swap in 2028 and Josh Richardson felt like fair value at the time and could look even better in a year. Richardson was good during his time in San Antonio last year. He shot 44% from three, played solid defense and had a positive assist-to-turnover ratio. The Spurs were significantly better with Richardson on the court this past season and I would expect that to continue.

Unlike McDermott, Richardson should have significant value on the trade market. He only has one year left on his deal so there should be more urgency to move him before this season’s deadline.  While he did provide a positive impact last season, it will be difficult to get San Antonio’s youth movement on the court if he is receiving the kind of minute load his output deserves.

Would a team give up a protected first for Richardson? I think that is entirely reasonable if the Spurs are willing to take on dead salary in his stead. He is a two-way wing that should be able to plug into any contender’s rotation and provide solid minutes off the bench or as a spot starter.

I really like his game and he has been a particularly good locker room fit with this team. I would love for him to play in San Antonio for the foreseeable future but that just does not feel like the best option for him or for the team. The team will most likely look to trade him during the season similar Thad Young last year but that is a precarious place to be. 

Last year was Richardson’s best season shooting the basketball of his entire career. If he were to fall from shooting 41% down to the 33-35% he shot the previous three seasons it will be a lot more difficult to find a trade package that makes sense. Sometimes it is best to strike when the iron is hot and this feels like one of those times, even if I would be sad to see him leave town.

Gorgui Dieng

Dieng is of a lower profile than rest of the bunch here due to his age and the relative lack of impact over the last few seasons but he will fill a valuable role nonetheless. This team has very little traditional size at the center position and having a third big that can play competent minutes is a major boon from where the team was last season.

The ideal scenario of Zack Collins staying healthy, improving after a season of getting his sea legs under him and holding down the backup center position all season feels very optimistic. There is a lot of “if” in that proposition, so adding a veteran that can play spot minutes or take over the backup five entirely is incredibly helpful.

Dieng has grown as a shooter late in his career, shooting 42% on over 6 attempts per 36 minutes and that comfortability beyond the arc should help him fit in to a variety of lineups next season. He is more paint-bound defensively but has been effective enough crashing the glass and defending the rim to remain a viable option off the bench.  What he lacks in upside he provides in consistent production, something that will be necessary as the Collins redemption tour hits the expected speed bumps. 

Teams struggle to put out competent lineups without a real big if they don’t have the requisite talent on the wings to make up for the size disadvantage, and San Antonio did not have that last year. They added quite a few pieces that could profile well into that role, but they are all young with little meaningful experience under their belts.

If one of Poeltl or Collins goes down with an injury (this will almost certainly happen with two seven-footers, it’s just hard to keep them healthy) Dieng will be a more than capable stopgap option. He won’t be long for the Alamo city, but he provides value in maintaining a workable structure when the players ahead of him miss time during the year.

Hoping for Nice Things

Our final section consists of guys on the cut line or who will be playing primarily with Austin next year. Unlike in years past, the team has filled out the back of the roster with viable rotation bets at valuable positions. How many of these guys will stick on the roster and how many will be left by the wayside? It is difficult to predict, but I fully expect at least one of these guys to play their way into being a part of the long-term plan for the team. If there is one thing all the players to followhave in common it is this; : they all need to improve shooting the basketball and those that don’t will have trouble finding the court in San Antonio.

Dominic Barlow

Dom Barlow is easily the person I am most looking forward to watching next year from this section. He entered his time at OTE as a fringe prospect but played his way onto draft boards throughout the course of the season. While the Spurs traded away their second round pick this year, signing Barlow as an UDFA more than made up for the loss of value. He is someone I wanted the team to take at 38 and should have a real chance to stick on this roster after signing a two-way deal this summer.

The sell for Barlow is a simple one: he moves well laterally for his size, knows where to be and has some tangible upside on the offensive end. He won’t turn 20 years old until May of 2023 so I would anticipate some rough patches during the season as he grows into his body and role on the court. I would not expect him to get a ton of run with the big club after the acquisitions of Sochan and Roby this off-season, but there is a real opportunity for him to grow into a valuable rotation cog for years to come.

He is not the most explosive athlete, particularly in the half court, but that should not be an enormous hindrance for his usage at the next level. The shot has a way to go but he was comfortable taking the occasional three in summer league and during his year at OTE. It looks good, though the volume leaves a lot to be desired. He isn’t going to get by defenders with his burst and as a result will need to force closeouts to provide any kind of rim pressure.  On the longer time horizon of a pending rebuild that feels like an attainable outcome that would vastly increase his chances of one day cracking the rotation.

I am most excited to see how he grows as a passer in the half court. He has a good feel for the game and vision for his position that should continue to blossom with experience in a more structured environment. If he can grow into a player that can make reads out of the short roll or operate as a semi-hub for the offense at the top of the key, his NBA translation becomes a lot cleaner. That feels like it could happen sooner than respectable shooting volume and I hope to see him have an opportunity to grow as a passer next year in Austin. 

Defensively Barlow was fine jumping passing lanes and disrupting offenses but what excites me most is his potential in switch situations or guarding larger wings on the perimeter.  As stated, this team hasn’t had anyone who can guard forward creators in a long time and now the roster is seemingly flush with viable options in the long run. I wish Barlow had a little more vertical pop when defending the rim but his ability to switch (in moderation) up and down the lineup should offer a pathway to a positive defensive impact as he grows into his body and role.

If Barlow can shoot it at any level, he should develop into a lower end rotation player with real upside past that if the pieces begin to come together offensively. The higher end outcomes with Barlow result in a player that can space the floor, make high-level reads as a roll man and take opposing big men off the bounce, all while providing increased defensive scheme versatility. That is the kind of player that can stick on a roster for a long time and someone I am glad the team decided to invest in immediately after the draft.

Jordan Hall

Jordan Hall is a playmaking forward prospect who might, like his patron saint Kyle Anderson, use his versatility to stake claim to a long-term spot in the Spurs rotation. He had two productive seasons at St. Joes with a versatile skill set for a player his size. Not the most athletic prospect, Hall is a more cerebral player who possesses real skill with the ball in his hands. Standing at 6’8”’ in shoes with an 8’8” standing reach, Hall has legitimate forward size while being able to run an offense, putting up over 5.5 assists per game both seasons in college.

His shot from three looks better on paper than it does on film but the volume (~6 per game) and efficiency (~36%) are encouraging. I expect it to take a little time for the shot to translate to a deeper line in the pros and playing against better defenders, but the ingredients are there for it to at least become passable. I am not overly enthused by this possibility, but it is clearly within the realm of potential outcomes.

Defensively Hall has good timing disrupting passing lanes and making plays. He is lighter than Barlow and will most likely be relegated to forward/wing minutes rather than shifting up to play the five but he should be able to provide heady and impactful defense there in time.

More than anything I am hoping Austin lets him run more of the offense this season. If there is one thing that sets Hall apart from other prospects of his ilk it is his ability to actually do something with the ball at his size. If that can be developed and refined to a workable level the team should have an interesting rotation piece moving forward.

Odds are only one of Barlow and Hall will stick on this roster long term, as is the nature of developing guys on two-way deals. I would feel more comfortable betting on Barlow due to his positional versatility and upside defensively, though both are fun and worthwhile bets to make. Forwards matter, it is nice to see the team taking shots on players at the most valuable position in the league. These are the gambles worth taking.

Joe Wieskamp

While there may have been options on the board I preferred to Wieskamp (Brandon Boston and Sharife Cooper in particular), it was hard to be upset about the selection. Taking second round swings on wing shooters is always a viable path and his athletic testing at the combine was genuinely impressive.

Last season wasn’t the most exciting in terms of his on-court production for either Austin or San Antonio, but Joe has shown an ability to fit in. The shot mechanics are a little slow and he had some difficulty getting up attempts at the rate you would prefer from a shooting specialist, something that will need to be addressed in the coming season.

What I will be watching for this season is twofold:, increased volume and increased versatility. He spent a lot of the season in Austin spotting up from deep and providing a safety valve for the offense which is a valuable skill but one that would require a much greater defensive impact to be viable at an NBA level.

I don’t foresee the defense coming along in a major way, as that just isn’t a development I would feel comfortable expecting. There are flashes of physicality when switched onto larger forwards but the lack of lateral quickness and help instincts makes me very hesitant to bet on a positive defensive outcome. Despite his impressive combine testing Wieskamp does not have the athleticism or wingspan typically found in impactful perimeter defenders nor the rotational instincts and technique needed to make up for it.

If that is true, his value is going to need to come on the other end of the court. Acting as a spot up shooter is nice but for him to provide the kind of impact necessary to carve out a rotation spot he will need to start putting greater strain on the defense by running off of actions and shooting off movement. I am not confident his mechanics will allow for that to happen but it does feel like the most likely pathway to regular minutes. The team signed him to a guaranteed deal for this season, but the pre-season has not been particularly encouraging. After not entering their final game of the pre-season I wouldn’t be surprised if Wieskamp is the final cut entering the season, despite his newly signed deal.

Keita Bates-Diop

KBD was one of my favorite players to watch from last season. He is incredibly long and simply knows where to be on the court. He moves well without the ball on offense and has an ability to find seams in a defense that can help cover for his lack of shooting.

That shooting is going to be the bellwether for if he makes the roster this coming season. It is hard to play him significant minutes next to Jakob if neither can space the floor, even if the defensive impact is a generally positive one. His length allows him to disrupt ball handlers and passing lanes alike, he’s intuitive on that end and handles his responsibilities well, but I am not sure that is enough to guarantee a roster spot.

He has grown on the offensive end during his time in San Antonio, finding a nice role as a cutter and off-ball mover despite his hesitance shooting from deep. He has worked well as a connective piece and has a penchant for making quick, sound decisions when he gets the ball. Bates-Diop is someone the coaching staff can trust to go out there and find seams in the defense regardless of the lineup, his versatility on both ends is his biggest strength and may be enough to earn a place on the opening day roster.

He has started the preseason more confident shooting the ball from distance. If that continues, he should lock up a rotation spot, much less a roster spot. This roster has a ton of new faces at his position, but you can never have too many forwards in today’s NBA.

Romeo Langford

Finally, we have reached the biggest wild card of the off-that isseason. Langford has struggled to stay on the court due to injury woes and struggled shooting the ball to start his career. He got so little opportunity on-court last season due to an ill-timed injury it is hard to determine how the franchise views him moving forward.

His lack of a consistent shot and the duplicative nature of his skill set with other young players on the roster lands him squarely on the cut line entering camp. SA is going to need to waive someone before the season starts and while Langford may have seemed like the most likely cut entering camp the pre-season has made that equation slightly more complicated.

He moves well defensive and is strong for his frame, he has done a good job defending perimeter scorers and may be the person best suited on the roster for such a task. I still don’t entirely buy the jump shot, but his ability to defend and provide some amount of rim pressure leaves room for some additional upside if he sticks around into the season.

It is difficult to see him earning his way into the rotation even if the team has significant injury problems. Vassell, Branham, Wesley and Richardson should all be ahead of him on the depth chart, offering little opportunity for playing time. Langford has an interesting archetype with his on-ball defense and creation potential shown in college, but the shot has never come around and without it the options for on-court usage are minimal. Langford is an interesting project who I would like to find a home on a roster somewhere if he is cut from San Antonio, there is more developmental meat on the bone here than most players near the bottom of the depth chart.

Back to Chasing Rings

To quote the modern poet Doctur Dot “Just yesterday, I had everything. Everything was nothing, but I ain’t complain”. There is not another song lyric in existence to better describe the situation the Spurs found themself entering this off-season.  Trading away yet another developmental success story was hard, but despite how impressive Dejounte’s growth was last year it did not significantly alter the outlook of this team.  At the time it felt like everything, but in reality, it was probably closer to nothing if the end goal is championship contention.   

Building a contender is a long and arduous process that requires more than just accumulating talent.  It is about finding not just any star to lead your franchise; it’s about finding the RIGHT star to build your future around.  A team spearheaded by Dejounte, Keldon, Devin and the three rookies very well could have made a playoff push in the coming years, but even the most optimistic fan would tell you the odds of becoming a true contender were close to none. Brian Wright and Company decided pulling the rug out from under this current nucleus was the best option moving forward despite what it meant for the on–court product during what may be Greg Popovich’s last season. I find that to be generally good business.

In my living memory this team has never been in such a dramatic state of flux and that is a good thing. The roster was going to need drastic changes to reach the kind of heights they have set out to achieve and making those decisions sooner rather than later should benefit them in the long run.

Extending Keldon this off-season was a telling move about where this front office thinks the team is and their general philosophy surrounding the rebuild. Retaining the talent you have drafted and developed is incredibly important for any franchise. While he could return significant value on the trade market, Keldon should have more value to this team than others around the league. 

The Spurs will find themselves with their highest draft pick in 25 years next off-season and whoever they select will immediately become the prized jewel of the rebuild. The ability to surround that player with talent from day 1 is greater than any draft capital that could be obtained on the trade market. 

Having a ready-made roster full of competent NBA level players will not only help provide a nurturing developmental situation for their keystone but it will help accelerate the journey to competitiveness.  Time and time again we have seen teams draft a sure-fire star only to squander their stockpile of long-term assets in an attempt to create a competent roster before finding themselves with nowhere to go.

San Antonio shouldn’t run into that problem any time soon. This roster is built to insulate a newly drafted centerpiece with young complementary talents throughout the rotation. Whoever this team drafts will be entering an environment suitable for growth and a roster built to grow with him. The Spurs are attempting to walk the thin line between rebuild and reboot, the margins are incredibly slim and there is little room for error. With that said, they have put themselves in a situation uniquely built for long-term success if luck is to go their way.

This season is going to be a long one that is difficult to watch at times, but that is the price of building for great rather than good.  I for one am more than willing to pay it. 

All Statistics provided by https://www.basketball-reference.com and https://www.barttorvik.com

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