We’ll have to wait and see if Arkansas turns into a prospect factory, but the Kentucky to NBA pipeline through Coach Cal is now officially over. Reed Sheppard and Rob Dillingham, both projected lottery picks, are the last to join this high-achieving group. But can they reach the illustrious heights of the names above? How do Sheppard and Dillingham stack up to their Kentucky counterparts? 

A Brief Introduction

I wrote about Reed Sheppard in December, and much of my analysis remains the same. Sheppard was shooting 57.1% from three back then, a number so incomprehensible that it seemed impossible for it to hold up. Yet somehow it did. Sheppard finished the season at 52.1% from three on 144 attempts, displaying the versatility to hit spot-ups, pull-ups, and fire from the parking lot. 

Physical tools and creation juice have been the main question-marks surrounding Sheppard. Is he capable of holding up on the defensive end? Does he have the handle and burst to get to his spots against NBA athletes? Still, Sheppard’s knack for being in the right place on both ends of the floor and other-worldly efficiency are enough for him to rank 3rd on Rookie Scale’s consensus big board. 

Rob Dillingham, who slots in at 11th on the Rookie Scale board, is one of the most electrifying offensive players in this class. Dillingham is an elite advantage creator who wins with his shifty handle, killer first step, and silky jumper. He averaged 15.2 points per game in just 23 minutes off the bench. Dillingham uses his gravity well to capitalize on passing windows and find open teammates out of drives and pick-and-rolls. 

As with Sheppard, physicals are amongst the oft-discussed concerns. Standing at 6’1” without shoes and 164 lbs., Dillingham will have to be truly special offensively to leave a positive imprint on the game at the next level. How will he finish amongst the trees against NBA rim protectors? And with his erratic defense, will he be singled out as a weak link?

Pitfalls and Takeaways From the Past

For the sake of this exercise, we will compare the 13 Kentucky guards drafted since 2011 to Reed Sheppard and Rob Dillingham. (Note that this excludes John Wall and Eric Bledsoe from 2010 due to shooting data inconsistencies.)

2011: Brandon Knight*

2012: Marquis Teague

2013: Archie Goodwin

2015: Devin Booker*

2016: Jamal Murray*

2017: Malik Monk* and De’Aaron Fox*

2018: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander*

2019: Tyler Herro*

2020: Immanuel Quickley and Tyrese Maxey

2022: TyTy Washington Jr. 

2023: Cason Wallace*

*Indicates Lottery Pick

It’s impossible to evaluate the exact success rate of Coach Cal guards given how recently many of them were drafted. But whether they’re getting MVP votes, making All-Star teams, or simply sticking around as starting caliber backcourt pieces, the eye-ball hit rate here is remarkably high. I’d say that Marquis Teague and Archie Goodwin are the only ones who never really found their footing. Early returns from TyTy Washington have been worrisome, but it’s hard to fully count someone out before their third year in the NBA. Either way, all of Washington, Teague, and Goodwin barely snuck into the first round, each drafted with the 29th pick in their respective classes. Simply getting mocked consistently in the lottery bodes well for Sheppard and Dillingham. 

Aside from merely glancing at draft position, other indicators could help us weed out some lower-end outcomes. Let’s look at how each Kentucky guard got their shots up, specifically inside the arc. Here is every prospect organized by (lay-up attempts)/(off-the-dribble two and floater attempts).

Kentucky Guards by Lay-up to Long 2 Ratio: 

This might seem like an arbitrary statistic, but attempting a high number of long twos, along with a low number of rim attempts, could indicate athletic and creation deficiencies. If one can’t consistently create paint touches against college athletes, how will they do so in the NBA? But there’s also a flip side to this logic – getting clean looks at the rim is challenging against NBA length, so having an in-between game to lean on is vital. Notably, the lowest ratio belongs to TyTy Washington, who attempted just 0.38 layups for every floater or pull-up middy. Meanwhile, Archie Goodwin had the highest ratio at 1.72. Finding the balance is key. 

I think a main takeaway is that players should be phenomenal at the shots that they take. For example, let’s compare De’Aaron Fox and Marquis Teague. Both have similar rim-centric ratios at 1.44 and 1.42. However, Fox shot 5% higher on lay-ups, had 13 more dunks, and a 13.4% higher Free Throw rate. If you’re taking a lot of shots at the rim, be an awesome finisher. The signs were also there for in-between development for Fox, who shot 43.6% (24/55) on runners versus Teague’s 17.0% (8/47).  

As far as projecting All-Star outcomes, this metric seems to favor slightly more rim-centric prospects. Those with a lower number of layup attempts to long twos have settled into strong starter/6th-man-ish spark plug roles, such as Immanuel Quickley, Tyler Herro, and Malik Monk. Jamal Murray, Devin Booker, and Tyrese Maxey weren’t necessarily paint-touch machines in college, but all have higher layup ratios than the aforementioned group. 

How do Sheppard and Dillingham Stack Up?

Reed Sheppard’s Shooting

Shooting is the obvious selling point for Sheppard, whose unreal splits pop off the screen next to any prospect in recent memory. Even when compared to our pool that contains plenty of high-versatility and high-volume snipers, Sheppard’s numbers stand out. 

Sheppard shot 52.8% on pull-up twos, 6.6% higher than 2nd place Tyler Herro. It’s worth noting that the PU2 isn’t necessarily Sheppard’s preferred shot, as he gets a significantly higher share of his looks from beyond the arc. As a matter of fact, only Tyrese Maxey and Immanuel Quickley attempted less off-the-dribble mid-range jumpers/40. Even on low volume, Sheppard has displayed a simple but effective mid-range bag, capable of stopping and popping and flowing into pull-ups with ease. Even when off-balance, Sheppard has the touch and body control to finish tough looks. 

Pull-up threes are an area where we can see some evolution in Coach Cal’s system. Many were discouraged from taking said shots, most notably Tyrese Maxey and Devin Booker. Both of the Kentucky guards this year rank top three in pull-up three attempts/40. Again, Sheppard’s efficiency is bananas. Immanuel Quickley and Marquis Teague made higher percentage but on a minuscule number of attempts. Amongst players to take over one pull-up three per 40, Sheppard ranks first by a whopping 12.6%. He’s comfortable getting to his three out of pick-and-rolls and isolations and has the confidence to pull it from way beyond the line. 

And then there’s catch-and-shoot threes, where Sheppard got up a respectable 4.57 attempts/40. That per 40 volume is a good bit behind guys like Jamal Murray (7.32 attempts), Devin Booker (6.76), and Malik Monk (5.98), but still higher than Tyler Herro and Tyrese Maxey (4.28 and 3.33). Sheppard is the group’s most efficient at a blistering 51.4%. The defining features of his catch-and-shoot profile are his range and shot-prep. Sheppard wasn’t tasked with sprinting around screens at Kentucky, but he’s an apt off-ball mover and after-pass re-locator, allowing him to excel on semi-movement looks. 

For those of you keeping track, Sheppard is the most efficient Kentucky jump-shooting prospect on catch-and-shoot threes, pull-up threes, and pull-up twos. He shot a higher percentage all over the floor than Book, Jamal, whoever. Choose your fighter, Reed shot higher. Remember when I said that players should take shots that they are good at making? As far as jumpers go, Sheppard made everything he took. 

Rob Dillingham’s Volume

It’s gone underrated how large a load Rob Dillingham carried offensively. Yes, Dillingham came off the bench and played fewer total minutes than any other player on this list. But when he was in the game, he ran the show. He leads our sample in usage rate, assist rate, and off-the-dribble jumper attempts/40. 

Recall how I mentioned that Reed and Dillingham each ranked top three in pull-up threes/40? Well, it turns out that Dillingham is actually the top dawg by a lot, averaging 3.11 attempts. He ranks 2nd in lay-up attempts/40 with 6.01, well below De’Aaron Fox at 7.52, but above Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s 5.26. 

Dillingham is unlikely to develop into an SGA-level slasher, a player whose height and length give him a massive boost. Further, Dillingham did notably more damage scoring in transition than Shai, whose bread and butter has always been generating half-court rim touches. However, all of this does speak to the level of creator that Dillingham has the potential to be – someone who can threaten the opposition with his pull-up while getting into the paint and putting defenses in rotation. Even without the finishing tools of an SGA, he still creates lay-down windows with his downhill playstyle. 

Dillingham certainly has his physical limitations, as the lightest, shortest, and least lengthy player in our sample. But he boasts some elite creation tools, mainly his handle and stop-and-start abilities. His change of direction while moving downhill is phenomenal. At his ceiling, Dillingham can become an elite off-ball scorer. His herky-jerky style of play will lend itself well to actions away from the ball. Dillingham is tough to stop when running off screens and getting into his jumper or attacking the rim off the catch. He’s incredibly decisive versus already off-balance defenders, and his side-step is a dangerous counter to hard closeouts. On catch-and-shoot threes, Dillingham’s 47.7 FG% trails only Reed Sheppard. 

I’m also high on his ability to initiate offense in transition, using his raw speed to blow by defenders running back and stopping and self-organizing for quick pull-up threes. 

Stocks, Stocks, Stocks

4.6% steal rate. 2.5% block rate. Sheppard is an all-time great events creator for a guard. Cason Wallace, already a plus-impact defender as a rookie, is the closest thing we have with a 3.7% steal rate and a 1.6% block rate. There are real questions about Sheppard’s foot speed on the ball and he lacks the size to guard up for stretches, but man, he might have some of the best hands and feel I’ve ever evaluated. Routine passes around the perimeter turn into turnovers when Sheppard is on the floor. He’s more menacing than you’d expect at the point of attack, constantly stripping opponents. Even on plays where he’s seemingly out of an action, Sheppard covers the ground and can get his fingertips on a ball. 

Given that none of our Kentucky guys can match his stock numbers, let’s at least compare him to all First Round Picks since 2008 with 4+ steal rates and 2+ block rates (via barttorvik):

There are a few players who you might expect to see: Marcus Smart, Thybulle, and Tari Eason. But I think it’s interesting that guys like Harden and CJ McCollum hit these thresholds – two remarkably skilled, crafty, and intelligent scorers – but not players lauded for their defensive aptitude. Perhaps high stock numbers could be indicative of feel, which would also translate to the other end of the floor. This bodes well for Sheppard, who, despite his Smart-esque defensive events creation, is still an offense-presenting prospect.  

With Dillingham, I have genuine concerns about his defensive fit against NBA athletes. His 2.4% steal rate is the 6th highest amongst our Kentucky pool, and while he has some nice moments of peskiness, Dillingham is a chronic gambler whose risky decisions don’t always pay off. He fouls a lot – there isn’t much reason for a one-position defending guard to average 4.5 fouls/40. Without the elite feel of a guy like Sheppard, Dillingham’s defensive ceiling and floor are both low. 

Rob Dillingham’s Efficiency

Knowing that Dillingham is the group’s leader in usage, takes a lot of wild shots, and suffers the physical deficiencies I discussed earlier, where would you expect him to rank in True Shooting? 

If you somehow guessed third, you’d be correct. Reed Sheppard is number one at 69.9%. Another sentence, another ridiculous Sheppard outlier stat. But Dillingham slots in below only Devin Booker. TS% isn’t everything, but it does clearly matter. TyTy, Goodwin, and Teague are the three least efficient of the sample. Dillingham’s splits aren’t in Sheppard territory, but they are still the marks of an elite shooter. 

Dillingham’s Shooting Splits:

• 40.7 Off the Dribble 2P%
• 37.9 Off the Dribble 3P%
• 47.7 Catch and Shoot 3P%
• 52.8 Runner FG%
• 50.9 Lay-up FG%

The only really concerning area of the floor is the rim. Dillingham’s highs are high, contorting his body, absorbing contact, and somehow getting difficult looks to fall. But physical limitations make it impossible for him to finish at a high clip. Plagued by his lack of strength, Dillingham struggles to get clean looks consistently in a crowd, taking off early and trying to twist his way to finishes. His style would lend itself better to someone with more length, as he frequently scoops for extension lay-ups and forces his way into windows that his arms are simply too short to capitalize upon. This can improve as he gets stronger, but how much weight can he realistically add? I don’t expect him to ever be a real free-throw rate tank despite his high rim volume. What’s promising is that Dillingham already has a relatively reliable in-between jumper and boasts feathery touch on his floater, which should help him compensate.

Sheppard the Creator

This is where things get interesting for Sheppard. Everything I’ve said up to this point may have you believing that Reed Sheppard is a can’t miss superstar. But I do question exactly what level of perimeter initiator he will be. 

In lay-up attempts/40, Sheppard ranks 2nd to last with 2.39. He’s ahead of only Immanuel Quickley, whose allergy to lay-ups has been well-documented. Sheppard has the standstill burst to get by the first line of defense, but I worry about his inability to punish defenses with his proceeding steps. He is not someone who carves out space on his way to the paint with big stride lengths or change-of-direction moves. Lacking in top-end length, vertical explosion, and finishing craft, Sheppard has moments where he gets engulfed in the paint. Further, his turnover rate is the third highest of the group, trailing only Teague and Goodwin. He can struggle to navigate tight areas and needs to be better about feeling out gap help and maintaining ball control versus digs. 

While Sheppard’s low per-40 rim volume is concerning, his 1.12 lay-up-to-long two ratio signifies that he still prefers getting to the rim over settling in the mid-range. This mark is higher than Maxey, Booker, and Murray. Sheppard is at his best starting his drives from further back behind the 3-point line, using the space defenders give him as a runway to build up speed. His touch around the rim stands out, finishing at a 57.9% clip on lay-ups, and while his craft could improve, there are noteworthy flashes of in-air adjustments. 

Sheppard’s passing pops as well. Despite ranking last in usage rate, Sheppard is 6th in assist rate. He has real versatility as a live-dribble passer in both the half-court and transition, capable of making inside-out passes with either hand, throwing accurate lobs, and finding teammates for hit aheads. His vision and delivery on kick-outs are uber-impressive, somehow finding open teammates on the perimeter out of a crowd. 

Parting Thoughts

Kentucky guards tend to work out. It feels wrong to say a prospect will excel at the pro level merely because of the college they chose to attend, but between the history of UK success, the film, and their overall stat profiles, I feel confident in both Rob Dillingham and Reed Sheppard finding their places in the NBA.  

Dillingham has the chance to be a fantastic offensive piece, a guy who can legitimately create for himself and others, while running around screens and carving up defenses as an off-ball scorer. Despite the defensive concerns, his offense is likely worth a top 5 or 6 gamble, especially in a class supposedly devoid of high-ceiling prospects. 

Even amongst our pool which includes multiple NBA megastars, Sheppard is a massive outlier. Nobody has shot like him from all areas of the floor. Nobody has created so many defensive events. This is what upside looks like – outlier skills and youth. Even if Sheppard isn’t a high-flying athlete, his two-way feel for the game is a clear indicator of future growth. 

There are many positive outcomes here – a player who can facilitate an offense, play off other stars, and scale his usage up or down depending on who he shares the floor with. And given how unique an advantage he has in so many statistical categories, I don’t think we can rule out the possibility of an unexpected usage spike in the NBA, in the vein of Tyrese Maxey or Devin Booker. Especially if Sheppard hits a high-end shooting outcome, the extent of the strength and handle improvements he’ll need to undergo will be far less. There is a case to be made that Sheppard is the best prospect in the entire 2024 draft, not just for his perceived safety in a class lacking an obvious #1, but for his upside. 

The post Are Reed Sheppard and Rob Dillingham the Last Great Kentucky Guards? appeared first on Swish Theory.

Carter was an intriguing prospect in the Big East last year, mainly due to his athletic juice and tenacious guard defense. His offensive game was rough around the edges, as he only shot 29.9% from deep and 42% on non-dunk two-pointers, but a guard with his length, motor, and screen navigation seemed like a solid rotational bet. Fast forward to 2024, where Carter posted an 11.4 BPM, put up 19.8 points per game on 59.8 TS%, and established himself as one of the best offensive players in the conference. How did Carter make such a great leap? And how can this newfound offensive production translate to the next level? 

Carter is an elite functional athlete. How many 6’3” guards can climb the ladder for reverse alley-oops, sour in for putbacks, and elevate with ease off cuts? No high major player under 6’4” had more dunks this year (26) and his 0.89 dunks/40 minutes is somewhere between high flyers like Ja Morant/Zach Lavine (0.93) and Dennis Smith Jr. (0.79) in their pre-draft seasons. 

Carter has fantastic burst, capable of blowing by his man off the bounce for easy lay-ups. He averaged around 5.5 rim attempts per game this season. But where Carter has shown immense growth is with his patience. He doesn’t strictly win with blow-by-speed. Providence frequently utilized him as a pick-roll-handler and ran him off curls and handoffs. He does a good job coming out of actions and getting to his spots with pace manipulation. Once he gets inside, Carter uses his length to his full advantage, extending over outreaching contests for finishes. He loves to stop and work with his pivot foot, getting to his turnaround or stepping to the rim. Per Battorvik, he shot 65.2% on 181 rim attempts. 

With his improved pacing, Carter’s passing has leaped. While still a score-first player, he looked much more comfortable waiting for plays to develop and finding lay-down windows. He upped his assist rate from 14.3% last year to 23.3% this year. There are times when he misses reads or doesn’t see a helper and forces the issue. Carter’s awareness of recognizing digs and gap help needs to improve at the next level. Regardless, his downhill style lends itself to creating open windows, which he usually capitalizes upon.

Shooting is the other major area of growth for Carter. Last season, he shot 33.3% on 69 catch-and-shoot three-point attempts. This season he took 127 catch-and-shoot threes and nailed 40.2% of them. His raw three-point percentage increased from 29.9% to 37.7%. The question is whether or not Carter’s leap is a fluke. 

After watching and hand-sorting all of his catch-and-shoot threes this season, I found that 54 of his attempts came off of movement, while 73 of his attempts were stationary. Many of these movement looks came with a high degree of difficulty – sprinting off screens and firing from way behind the line. On stationary attempts, Carter shot 42.4% (31/73) versus 37.0% (20/54) in motion. Note that this is imperfect hand-tracked data from yours truly, but my main point is that Carter took a lot of difficult shots and was still pretty efficient. His 3-point efficiency could rise even higher with a tamer catch-and-shoot diet. That’s not to say he shouldn’t be empowered to shoot off movement at the next level. Carter has the self-organization skills to make difficult shots. It’s just that some of the stuff he was hoisting up this year was absolutely bananas. 

Carter also shot 34.0% on dribble 94 off-the-dribble threes this year, using his deceleration ability to create space for himself. I expect him to pull it versus unders pretty early in his career. 

His release looks a bit funky with a low set point, but the volume and versatility have me tentatively buying the shot. Carter is much more comfortable letting it fly, upping his 3PA/100 every year he’s been in college (5.8 in Freshman year, 6.5 in Sophomore year, 11.2!!! in Junior Year). This is someone who is undoubtedly confident shooting a basketball. 

Will Carter run a pro offense? Most likely not. But that doesn’t mean his offensive growth and usage spike are meaningless. The NBA isn’t made up strictly of creators and non-creators. High-level complimentary guards must be able to create to some degree and capitalize against a tilted defense. There’s a strong chance that Carter is a potent enough shooter to demand closeouts, which makes his offensive pitch all the more appealing. 

But it’s the defensive end of the floor where Carter will make his money. There were moments this season when he floated around, likely a side effect of his hefty offensive burden. But the vast majority of the time, Carter is locked in and suffocating. He’s a pest on-the-ball with strong, quick hands. With a 2.8% block rate, he’s a shot-swatting machine for a Guard. He routinely blocks jumpers on closeouts and is a deterring presence at the rim. There could be real tertiary rim-protection equity here with his vertical pop off two feet, length, and activity. Carter is exceptional at navigating ball screens, agile enough to stay glued to his man through picks, and boasting the recovery tools to impact shots from behind. 

Even at 6’3”, I think that Carter can guard some wings in a pinch. He has a strong base, preventing him from getting moved by larger-bodied offensive players, and his near 6’9” wingspan makes him functionally larger than his listed height. He held up well on switches this year, maintaining his ground against physicality and using his length to contest. 

The obvious drawback here is that Carter is old, having already turned 22 years old. But as has been well-documented, plenty of older prospects have been severely underdrafted. A quick checklist for evaluating multi-year college prospects…

Year-to-Year Improvement

If a player spends multiple years on campus, it’s vital to look for legitimate areas of improvement. Growth isn’t linear, but if a prospect is the same player they were as a Freshman after two years of school, the sell for further development beyond college becomes trickier. Desmond Bane is a player that comes to mind in this category, a sharpshooter who made strides as a ball-handler and passer throughout his time at TCU. As a senior, Bane nearly doubled his assist rate from the previous season (26.0% vs. 13.6%). 

Vince Williams Jr. is another example – a guy who went 12/55 from three his first two seasons at VCU and ended his career jacking up 10.1 three-point attempts/100 and drilling at a 38.7% clip. 

Production

Many of the best NBA role players were legitimate stars in the college ranks. Josh Hart and Derrick White were both 18+ PPG scorers in their pre-draft seasons. Production matters – an older college player should be able to put up numbers and dominate against college-level competition. Max Strus and Payton Pritchard each averaged over 20 PPG at DePaul and Oregon as Seniors. 

One player who I recently undervalued was Jaime Jaquez. I struggled to see how he would produce at the NBA level without maintaining his usage at UCLA. However, I ignored the most important thing about Jaquez’s game: he is good at basketball. Players that are uber-impactful in college are always a good bet. Jaquez has settled nicely into a lower-usage role in Miami, where he made an immediate impact for a playoff team. 

Immediate Go-To Skill(s)

Especially for older prospects, for which teams have less patience, a player needs to have something that keeps them on the floor immediately. Even players on the more raw side of the spectrum must give teams a reason to play them. This is something that should pop off the screen. Sam Hauser could shoot, giving him the in-game reps to develop into a formidable defensive player. Caruso and Herb Jones played their hearts out on defense, empowering teams to invest time into developing their shots. 

NBA Athleticism and Tools

The downfall of many. There is a baseline of athleticism that every NBA player needs to hit. Those who are small, slow, and weak become liabilities on both ends of the floor. Even guys who aren’t typically known for their “athleticism” hit meaningful benchmarks in college. Derrick White had 142 rim attempts and Christian Braun had 27 dunks. 

Carter fits each of these criteria with ease. He grew as a shooter and ball-handler and produced in a big conference. He’s a day-one havoc creator on defense whose athleticism pops off the screen. I think there’s a path for Carter to become a true star-impact rotation piece at the next level – someone who could easily wind up one of the top few players in this class.

The post Devin Carter is Still Underrated appeared first on Swish Theory.

Malik Mack’s Offensive Juice

In the last ~70 years, there’s only been one player from Harvard to suit up in an NBA game: Jeremy Lin. Often lost in the legendary underdog story is just how dominant Lin was in the Ivy. 67.1% at the rim, 7.8% stock rate, .691 FTr, 30.8% assist rate as a junior? It’s hard to draw up a wilder stat line for a 6’3” guard (Reed Sheppard may like a word). 

It’s been a long while since Linsanity, and few Ivy Leaguers have established themselves as true pro prospects in the last two decades. Princeton’s Devin Cannady got some run with the Magic from 2020-2022. The Jazz picked Yale’s Miye Oni at 58th in 2019. But today, Harvard Freshman Malik Mack should be on everyone’s draft radar. 

Through ten games the 6’1” guard is stuffing the stat sheet, posting 20.1 points, 4.4 assists, and 1.1 steals a night on 62.5% true shooting. He’s hitting a blistering 47.2% of his 10.4 3-point attempts/100. Shooting versatility is one of the main selling points for Mack, with his smooth lefty stroke. He gets plenty of elevation on his jumper and his high release point allows him to shoot comfortably over the outreaching arms of defenders. 

Harvard has done a great job utilizing Mack’s movement shooting ability. He’s looked comfortable firing out of DHOs and off screens, particularly with rightward momentum. His fluidity and flexibility on these actions pops off the screen, as he’s capable of running at high speeds before flowing into his shot. I love the sudden motion in the first clip below – going from slow to fast to create separation without the ball in his hands. It’s great to see such off-ball aptitude from a guy carrying a 29.8% usage rate. 

Mack’s off-the-dribble shot is equally as dangerous – he’s made more unassisted threes this year (13) than he has assisted threes (11). Despite lacking top end explosiveness, Mack creates just enough space for his jumper with a tight and crafty handle. Using hang-dribbles, jabs, and deceptive crossovers, Mack keeps defenders honest. He’s especially comfortable on step-backs and fade-aways, as his shot seems to have a natural backwards sway.

The scoring is the obvious pitch, but he’s also ahead of the curve as a playmaker. He’s a one-handed lefty passer through and through, capable of making the weak-side corner skip and hitting the roller with slick wraparounds. I’ve been impressed by his ability to stay composed and make the correct read versus at-the-level ball screen coverages. The delivery in the first clip is just nasty. With four defenders collapsing, Mack pulls the ball behind his leg and somehow whips it between everyone to the right wing. 

Mack is one to keep an eye on for the rest of the season. While there are plenty of challenges for the undersized guard to overcome (finishing amongst the trees and defense), he’s a world class shot-maker, and it’s encouraging to see his abilities as a playmaker and off-ball shooter shining this early in his college career. 

Otega Oweh’s Power and Instincts

Oklahoma has been dominant in non-conference play, with huge wins over Iowa, USC, Providence, and Arkansas. A large reason for their success has been sophomore Otega Oweh, a burly guard whose strength and power overwhelm opponents on both ends of the floor. 

Oweh does most of his damage in the paint, with 65% of his shot attempts this season coming at the rim. He’s tough to stop with a head of steam going downhill, getting low on his drives and using his long stride lengths and change of direction ability to generate paint touches. Once he gets to the rim, Oweh uses his large frame to keep defenders on his hip and get to lefty extension finishes. 

Oweh has been weirdly effective as a shooter this year, having made ten of his fourteen three point attempts. The sample size is obviously tiny, and given that he finished 1 for 4 last season, his shooting projection is far from a sure thing. He’s put some clean-looking makes on film, like this confident spot-up over a solid contest… 

But notice how low his release point is on the shot below.

Regardless of the inevitable “will he draw closeouts?” questions, Oklahoma does a good job scheming him rim touches, using him as a trailer or getting him downhill off hand-offs. He’s decisive enough off the catch to eat up space that defenders give him. 

While I appreciate his aggressiveness, I think he could let the game slow down a little more. His drives rarely turn into assists, as he’s prone to passing up open shooters on the perimeter or dump-off windows in favor of jumping without a plan and forcing up impossible layups. 8.1% is a poor assist rate for someone who gets downhill as often as he does. 

He also generates rim attempts without the ball in his hands, using his off-ball feel to pick out spots as a cutter and offensive rebounder. In the first clip, notice how he perfectly times his move with the backline defender helping on the drive. Then he makes the high-effort tip-in as time expires. 

His hustle and instincts translate to the defensive side of the floor. He’s a steal and slam waiting to happen, frequently intercepting passes and taking it to the house. He has the lower-body strength to hold up in the post and the mobility and hands to disrupt as an off-ball chaser. He has a 5.1% steal rate this season, right in line with his 5.3% steal rate last year. 

Oweh has been a two-way force to start the season. His NBA sell is tough without the shot coming around, but his defensive toughness, slashing, cutting, and raw production make him a guy worth checking out. 

Reed Sheppard is Doing It All

Reed Sheppard’s numbers don’t even seem real. I promise I’m not exaggerating. 15.4 BPM, 77.0 True Shooting%, 4.0 Block%, 5.9 Steal%, 57.1 3P%, 21.1 AST%, 86.7 at rim FG% … we really haven’t seen anything like this. 

His shooting prowess should stand out to any NBA team. Sheppard has consistent mechanics, and he’s capable of hitting shots off the catch and off the dribble from well beyond the three point line. Inside the arc, he uses his feathery touch to knock down difficult looks off the bounce. 

My question is just how audacious is Sheppard? 8.6 attempts/100 possessions is solid volume, but it isn’t that high for a shooter of his caliber. It’s tough in an offense full of guards and ball-handlers, but I love the blips of him not giving a damn. Watch below as he pulls-up versus an under from the logo and spots up from way way way behind the line and fires. Could we see a volume spike in an NBA offense? Immanuel Quickley has taken ~2.5 more threes/100 with the Knicks than he did in two years at Kentucky.

Most of the time, Sheppard makes the right play. He’s a steady connective passer who does a good job finding the open man. He constantly has his head up – I love the vision to find Aaron Bradshaw running hard to the rim in semi-transition. 

However, I worry about how his creation looks at the next level, particularly as a slasher. Sheppard rarely creates layups for himself in the half-court. He too often drives without even glancing at the rim, turning his body away from the basket before kicking it out to the perimeter. Sheppard has a solid first step, but his third and fourth steps slow him down. His strides shorten and he struggles to explode all the way to the rack. This can lead to some rough looking turnovers when the gap help is well-prepared. 

Sheppard’s defense has been remarkable, albeit not perfect. There are moments of off-ball spaciness and jumpiness on closeouts, and some of his gambles do not pay off. At the same time, Sheppard has perhaps the quickest hands of any prospect in recent memory, making life hell for opponents on the ball. He has a unique ability to evade screens and poke the ball loose from ball-handlers without fouling. It’s like he’s spamming the steal button in rookie mode on 2k. 

This should be an easy post-entry pass, but Sheppard comes in from behind to force a turnover. And then he finishes the play contesting the fast break lay-up with verticality that you don’t see from a 6’3” guard. 

While there may be some athletic and self-creation limitations here, I’m struggling to see the argument against Reed Sheppard’s NBA case. He makes too many good things happen on both ends of the floor. 

Dailyn Swain’s Movement Skills and Defensive Aptitude

Dailyn Swain probably isn’t going to end up in this year’s draft class, averaging just 5.3 points per game on 14.0% usage, but the 18-year old wing has caught my eye with his advanced defensive skill set. 

It starts with his ball-screen defense, where Swain is incredibly nimble at 6’7”. He glides over screens with relative ease, staying attached to his man, getting skinny, and dipping his shoulder to fight through. Even if he ends up a little behind play, Swain has the recovery tools to regain ground and engulf shots from behind. 

His awareness here is excellent. Swain gets caught up in the screen and gives up an advantage. However, he recognizes the pass to the roller coming and peels off from the ball-handler, drifting down and forcing a turnover. 

He’s another guy with elite hand placement, keeping his mitts active for on-ball deflections and strips. He boasts a 3.8% block rate and a 3.4% steal rate, and only commits 2.3 fouls per 40 minutes. Away from the ball, he uses his long stride lengths to cover swaths of ground, and he’s capable of helping at the rim or in a gap and recovering back to his man. 

Offensively, I’m still trying to figure out exactly what Swain is. He hasn’t made a three since November 13th (3/11 on the season), and while he has solid vision, he also throws too many errant passes. I’m curious to see how he develops as a creator given how fluid he looks with the ball in his hands. He looks like a true vet in the clip below, spinning to his right, getting his defender leaping with an up-fake, and drawing the foul. Plays like this, along with his 50.0 FTr, are indicative of his feel and potential craft. 

Again, I doubt Swain generates enough buzz to be a one-and-done, but he offers an intriguing package as a young, defense-oriented wing with untapped offensive upside. 

The post Early Season Standouts: Malik Mack, Otega Oweh, Reed Sheppard, and Dailyn Swain appeared first on Swish Theory.

The OTE league has six teams made up of primarily high school-aged prospects. The organization has plenty of talent, but the best players that Amen and Ausar (who turned 20 in January) faced up against this season were 18 and 19 years old. This muddies the waters with how valuable their counting stats and film are from this season. I won’t sit here and act like OTE was the highest-quality hoop that I’ve watched. But the good in all this? Amen and Ausar did what they had to do on the court. Their team, the City Reapers, went 14-1 en route to an OTE Championship. Ausar led the league in +/- at +297, and Amen finished second at +285. Somoto Cyril finished third at a distant +172. 

During the pre-season, the twins traveled to Europe for a few exhibition games. They also faced a tough Omaha Blue Crew team in The Basketball Tournament in July 2022, suiting up against some former High Major stars in Marcus Foster and Admon Gilder. The dominance wasn’t quite as sheer (each mustered up just 9 points versus the Blue Crew), but the twins were the two best athletes on the floor during every pre-season game in which they appeared. Amen, in particular, was all over the place defensively, recording 5 steals and 4 blocks versus Mega Bemax and 3 steals and 2 blocks during The Basketball Tournament. There were flashes of brilliance from both. There were also some poor shooting games. 

Aspiring prospects have been making the jump from the NCAA to the pros for decades. The same can’t be said for OTE’s players. There is no frame of comparison that we can look to when projecting these two bright stars to the next level. That has to be scary as hell for NBA front offices. Brandon Miller recording an 11.0 BPM, Jarace Walker having an 8.4% stock rate, and Grady Dick shooting 40.3% from three on 10 attempts/100 as freshmen all give teams comfort. So what do we do with the Thompsons? 

I want to focus on what Amen and Ausar bring to the table. What have they put on tape? It’s easy to flip discussions surrounding their prospect-hood into the “they didn’t play any real competition!” thing. But reducing the conversation to this diminishes the incredible feats that each twin is capable of executing on the basketball court. 

Amen

This play encapsulates how special of an athlete Amen Thompson is. The first step out of the initial spin move is explosive. He goes from having his man up in his grill to holding about 6 feet of separation in the blink of an eye. After snaking the screen, he starts his second spin move, covering a lot of ground with his strides and landing outside the restricted area. And somehow, after finishing his spin, Amen loads up and elevates for a dunk? Where his head is nearly at the rim? Jumping off of two feet in a tight area? 

The craziest aspect of this play is how effortless he makes it look. There are very, very few humans on planet Earth athletic enough to pull a maneuver like this off, and Amen does it without sweating. 

With his acceleration, Amen is a threat to get both feet in the paint whenever he has the ball in his hands. Most importantly, he’s capable of winning with simplicity. He doesn’t have to string together a bunch of moves to generate a quality advantage, which is the way it should be against pre-professional competition. He doesn’t lack a deceptive handle – he just isn’t overly reliant upon it. Here he gets a switch, and all it takes is a simple right-left cross to get his man stumbling into next week. He finishes with an uncontested dunk hopping off his right rather than both feet this time around. 

Amen’s handle isn’t the tightest, sometimes losing control of the ball or getting stripped on digs. It’s something that will need to improve at the next level, but he has a little bit of a longer leash since the burst is so damn special. It’s rare to find players that can change direction at full speeds while getting to the rim. Stuff like the clip below is reserved for the Jaden Iveys and Ja Morants of the world, guards who Amen has 3-4 inches on. 

Once Amen gets downhill, he has a nice bag of scoring tricks. His hang-time is absurd, capable of floating in the air for what feels like an eternity and contorting his body to finish at difficult angles. He uses both hands, often going to a lefty reverse when driving to his right. He isn’t perfect. Occasionally he’ll drive into a crowded paint and force up a difficult look or leave his feet too far away from the cup and try to out-muscle rim protectors. But still, his size, body control, and athleticism give him access to finishing windows that are unavailable to others. He’s also developed into a foul magnet, an encouraging improvement from last season. In 2021-22, his free throw rate across all competitions was .296. This past year, he improved to a whopping .438. 

Part of what makes Amen so appealing as a slasher is that he doesn’t merely drive to score. He constantly looks to get his teammates involved. A lot of the reads he makes seem pretty simple. 1) Blow by man. 2) Draw help at the rim. 3) Kick to the corner or dump off to the dunker spot. 1) Gets a step on his opponent. 2) Draws help in the gap. 3) Finds a teammate one pass away. He’s a 6’7” walking paint touch – many of these windows are going to be big and seemingly obvious, but Amen being able to capitalize on them is super encouraging. 

In his 20 OTE games, he averaged 6.8 assists per game. I don’t think it’s crazy to dub him the best passer in this class, and he balances his scoring and playmaking well. The vision is there, picking out cutters and hitting them off a live dribble. He’s excellent at manipulating defenders with his eyes, and his deliveries are unique. Amen is a rampant jump passer, which gets him into trouble at times. But he hangs in the air for so long that he’s usually able to figure out a plan. Transition is another area where he makes his presence felt as a passer, constantly looking for hit-ahead opportunities. 

Here, he gets doubled with his back to the basket and zips a cross-court skip pass to the corner. That is some mesmerizing accuracy and vision. 

Let’s get to the elephant in the room: the jumper. To put it bluntly, Amen’s 3-ball does not go in often. Two seasons ago, he shot 22.0% from three and 52.6% from the foul line. Combining the OTE season stats and his pre-season games, he went 25.3% from three and 68.0% from the line, upping his volume from 2.0 to 2.9 attempts per game. Improvement! It may not seem like much, but Amen has made real strides with his jumper. It’s less of a push shot than it was a year ago, and the right leg kick/spread eagle is less pronounced on his spot-ups. Still, the ball comes out as a line drive. 

Amen’s shot is far from a sure thing, and getting him to even a league-average level will take time and energy. The big question is, how much will his shooting hold him back? I don’t think the “defenses will be able to ignore him” answer is correct. Teams can go under screens against him, but Amen can use that space and accelerate into the paint. I think issues arise if he finds himself in a stagnant offense, standing around off-ball. In that situation, his presence could muck up spacing and seriously harm an offense. 

The pull-up middy is perhaps a bit more attainable on his rookie contract and is a shot he’ll need to have if he is to hit a true superstar outcome. There are encouraging blips of using his change-of-pace and snaking screens to get to his spots. The strange leg kick certainly should be cleaned up. 

While it isn’t a consistent shot in his bag yet, Amen still manages to find ways to win as a creator without it versus lower-level competition. Below, he decelerates to create separation. Rather than pulling up, he eats up that space and creates a laydown window. 

Defense in the OTE is difficult to evaluate. Amen is aggressive in help, constantly looking for opportunities to create turnovers. There are moments where his length and speed allow him to blow up passing lanes. But this approach doesn’t always pay off. He too often finds himself out of position. He covers ground incredibly well, but sometimes the closeouts are too long. Other times he just doesn’t close out at all or completely loses track of his man. 

His generational vertical athleticism translates to the defensive end of the floor, as Amen is one of the best shot-blocking wings/guards in this class. His vertical pop off of two feet is absurd and allows him to smother shots. Look at this possession from The Basketball Tournament, where he slides with his man before shooting up like a rocket ship to stuff a lay-up attempt. 

And here he is defending a two-on-one in transition, somehow tracking the ball and elevating to block this shot directly after turning. There is a lot to clean up here, but if Amen can cut down on the gambling, there is a path to him being a value-adding defensive player. 

Ausar

Again – the OTE is a difficult place to scout defense, but I love what I’ve seen from Ausar on that end of the floor. He has some of the best hands I’ve ever evaluated. He starts this possession with some nice sliding to force his man baseline and converts to low-man mode after the offense resets. The moment the dump-off comes, Ausar deflects the ball and forces a turnover. Honestly, this is far from a perfect defensive possession. He’s playing pretty upright and is ball-watching, but he somehow manages to locate the ball and swipe down in an instant. 

There are more technically sound defensive possessions to show from Ausar. This is absolutely hounding defense, moving his feet, prying at the ball, and making life hell for the opposing ball-handler. He finishes by helping at the nail and manhandling his way into a steal. 

Ausar makes his presence felt as a shot-blocker too, with the length to slide and engulf layups and the feel to rotate and protect the rim from the weak side. Watch the hands in the first clip of the compilation below, forcing a tie-up without fouling before swatting the rim attempt away. And look at him soar for that ridiculous transition block. 

Jumpiness is an improvement point. Ausar can get overambitious on closeouts and jump on up-fakes.

With how unique and well-rounded of an athlete Amen is, it’s easy to forget that Ausar is a 40+ inch vertical guy in his own right. He doesn’t have the same raw first-step burst or contortion abilities of his brother, but who does? Ausar’s cutting athleticism pops off the screen. He has excellent timing, explodes into gaps well, and is a powerful two-footed leaper that can get his head to the rim without any problems. He has great anticipation on the offensive glass and pounces when his man’s head is turned in the wrong direction. 

It seems that Ausar has been pitched as the “off-ball” twin. This isn’t necessarily the case, as Ausar has received plenty of creation reps with the OTE. Ausar isn’t as blessed athletically as his brother, but he is capable of getting downhill off the bounce. However, he doesn’t create advantages with as much simplicity as Amen. He can string together some nice dribble combos to get by his man, but he loses control of the ball now and then, and his standstill burst is merely good rather than outstanding. Because of these factors, Ausar finds himself stuck in the in-between areas with no place to go but tough leaner-ville.

Ausar is also one of the best passers from the wing in this class. Because the advantages he creates aren’t as obvious, he doesn’t have access to every window. But he’s capable of executing simple drives and kicks and hitting the roller or popper as a ball-screen handler. His lobs to cutters and bombs in transition are notably accurate. I mean, this is about as accurately placed as a full-court as you’ll ever see.

The vision isn’t always consistent. Here, he drives baseline, jumps, and misses a wide-open teammate under the basket. 

Ausar’s yearlong shooting numbers are worrisome. 28.3% on 4.4 attempts/game with a 65.3 FT% is pretty rough across all competitions, but I don’t think the shot is broken. He has some of the lower body kick-out issues of Amen, but it isn’t as pronounced. Ausar showed growth as the season progressed. In nine games from January 1st onwards, he shot 33.8% from deep and 76.1% from the foul line. The sample is small of course, but it’s encouraging that he improved over the year. In 5 OTE playoff games, Ausar shot 38.5% from three on 7.8 attempts/game. The volume bump there is the most notable for me, as he looked far more comfortable firing versus unders and shooting over contests off the catch. 

Ausar has flashed some impressive shot-making off the bounce as well. His high release point allows him to shoot over contests, and he flows from dribble into shot more smoothly than you’d expect. 

In Sum

Amen is one of the most fascinating creator prospects I’ve ever encountered, a rim pressure maven with size, unmatched run/jump/change-of-pace athleticism, and a preternatural feel for the game. He’s the rare lead perimeter initiator who may genuinely provide defensive value. It feels absurd for someone with strengths as strong as his to fall outside of the top 3. 

Ausar has the chance to be a big-time NBA wing defender – someone who can make life difficult for the Tatums and Lukas of the world while also bringing value away from the ball. Offensively, there’s a wide range of outcomes here. Is the shooting bump real? How gravitational can the pull-up become? Ausar has the handle and passing chops to provide secondary or tertiary creation value, but where the shot lands will dictate how much value he provides in that role.

Maybe the OTE context scares you. Maybe the jumpers scare you. But man, I have a hard time viewing the twins as anything but elite NBA prospects. These are guys with the potential to be real difference-makers at the next level, players who can be core pieces on contending rosters. 

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