You never know which version of this Orlando Magic team you’re going to get. Sporadic 3pt shooting. Roster-depleting injuries. Rotations lacking rhythm. But there’s two things you can always count on for this group:

1. Opponents scratching and clawing for every point against this pestering defense
2. When Paolo and Franz get going, this team can hang around with anyone.

Orlando’s defense is as impressive as any team in the league; this year the Magic are on track for their second straight season as the league’s 2nd-best rated defense. The one thing you never question is The Competitive fire. The Energy. The Hustle. (get well soon, Suggs.)

The offense, though, lives and dies with the consistency of its stars, not to mention the shooting luck of its role players. The difference between stars and superstars in this league is a little bit of super and a lot of consistency. Orlando’s two shooting star rising suns still have to find that consistency to make the last jump into the superstar galaxy.

This season, both players made leaps closer to that goal, becoming franchise cornerstones any time would build around. When you play the Magic, sometimes you get Boogie; sometimes you get The Beast.

How many NBA teams run their offense through a pair of 6’10” point-forwards? Two big wing scoring creators here to bend driving angles, hit tough shots, and create good looks for the team.

Often penetrating the paint with postups and pick-and-rolls, what are the odds these two big wings average the same 4.7 Assists Per Game with exactly 223 Drives a piece over the course of the season for the same team?

On most nights, The Magic’s offense relies on its star scorers accomplishing 3 main goals: Getting to the line, Scoring at the rack, and Creating open looks for others. Franz looks to methodically run P&R and DHOs, using the screener to create that half-step advantage into the paint with hostage dribbles and shifty direction-changing drives until he gets to the rim for his patented running flip shot, his dirk fade counter, or the lob to the roll man.

Paolo makes scoring look effortless, bringing the ball up the floor and deciding between a quick pull-up jumper, backing down his defender from the perimeter with brute strength, or simply driving through every defender in front of him for a Power Slam.

I asked Orlando Magic Head Coach Jamahl Mosley about the challenges that go into playcalling with players as talented and versatile as Paolo and Franz, where it feels like any play could work on any possession depending on matchups and lineups:

“I think a lot of it always boils down to their feel, their read, their recognition to who’s on the floor with them, and the spacing placed around them.” – Jamahl Mosley

Sometimes the role players’ 3pt shooting shows up, like in Cleveland in a National TV spot, and on those rare nights where this team has the “we can make 15 threes” factor in play, they look like they can compete with any team in the league. Other nights, they have trouble hanging with the bottom of the barrel, because when the shots don’t fall, the paint is packed, and every possession becomes a grind to force a stop and follow it up with a tough shot.

Sometimes you get Jekyll, sometimes you get Hyde; no matter which version of The Magic show up, it’s scary.

The Numbers

How do each of these rising stars’ stats compare to the rest of the league?

Franz’ +3.5 EPM rating ranks 19th in Estimated Plus Minus in the 96th percentile overall. Wagner has an elilte rating on both ends of the floor, rating in. the 90th percentile defensively (+1.3 D-EPM), and 91st percentile offensively (+2.2 O-EPM). Only 6 players with a higher EPM than Franz’ 3.5 EPM are also in the 90th percentile or higher on both ends, via Dunks and Threes. That puts Wagner in the company of NBA Stars who impact both sides of the floor, revealing that Franz is one of the best young rising two-way wings in the league.

This impact rating isn’t as high for Banchero despite his impressive box score stats, yet still rates in the 80th percentile overall (+1.0 EPM) and in the 81st percentile offensively (+0.9 O-EPM). In another impact metric called LEBRON, Paolo actually has a slight edge now at 1.43 to Franz 1.38 rating, while Franz still has the lead in LEBRON WAR (Wins Above Replacement) with 4.32 to Paolo’s 3.28.

Many Magic fans and skeptics around the league often debate who is the better player of the two, based on these impact numbers being higher for Franz than Paolo for one reason or another. Two prominent analytics folks have weighed in on the matter to help provide insight; in fact, its the people who created these very two impact metrics.


Taylor Snarr, the creator of EPM, was asked about this very topic in a recent F5 newsletter by Owen Phillips; here’s his thoughts:

I asked Krishna Narsu, the inventor of LEBRON, about this topic directly on my podcast, Learning Basketball. At the time, and up to that point in their careers, Franz had steadily rated higher than Paolo, despite Paolo scoring more points per game.

One might expect Franz’ impact to go down as his usage has gone up, but it hasn’t. Franz has stayed efficient when given Paolo’s #1 option touches due to injury, becoming the primary option defenses have to stop, yet his impact is as high as ever.

Krishna’s conclusion here at the time is that Franz impact stats are generally higher due to his playmaking creation for others, his shooting gravity on and off the ball, and his matchup difficulty as a more active defender. Doing more little things that impact winning than just smooth scoring and tough shot making.

That said, Paolo has finally reached the same level of impact via this metric, showing Paolo’s impact has risen as of late for making winning plays, improving as a shooter, producing as a scorer, and being a reliable scoring hub for the team.

Franz “Boogie” has been putting up legit All-Star numbers all season, averaging 24 PPG – 6 REB – 5 AST / 2 TO – 1 STL,
while shooting 54% 2P% on 13 2PA – 32% 3P% on 6 3PA – 88% FT% on 5 FTA. Franz has had marquee moments throughout the season, like going supersonic anytime he sees the Lakers, featuring a stepback game-winning kill shot on a 37 PTS – 11 AST – 6 REB – 4 STL evening in L.A.

Since the All-Star break, “The Beast” Banchero is scoring 29 PPG, which is 2nd only to The NBA’s Leading Scorer tough shot-making MVP-favorite superstar in Oklahoma City, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. Paolo’s averaging 29 PTS – 7 REB – 4 AST / 2 TO – 1 STL in that 17gm stretch, while shooting 51% 2P% on 14 2PA – 37% 3P% on 7 3PA – 80% FT% on 10 FTA.

This success didn’t happen overnight; Paolo’s battled a tough injury all season, one that has taken time to fully recover from even while playing games. The standard is so high for the former Duke star that when he was averaging 22 PTS 7 REB 5 AST for 21 games after coming back from injury, outsiders still expected more.

One smart evaluator who looks at the game with a unique eye for physical movement pointed out he didn’t quite have the same leg strength back yet that makes his game so deadly. (h/t @Polarfall on Twitter)

I asked Paolo about his injuries, the physical and mental aspect of recovering and finding a rhythm after the comeback, and how the team’s mindset has been dealing with so many different injuries this season to key players.

Averaging 31 PPG – 8 REB – 4 AST – 1 STL in 14 games since this question, it’s safe to say Banchero is back to his star self.

Against Charlotte on March 25th, Paolo became the first Magic player since Dwight to drop 30+ PTS in four straight games, joining Dwight, Shaquille O’Neal, and Tracy McGrady as the only players in team history to drop 30+ PTS in 4+ straight games, via Magic PR. Against Dallas on March 27th, Paolo did it again, becoming has become the first Orlando Magic player since T-Mac and Shaq as the only players in team history to score 30+ PTS in FIVE straight games

That only scratches the surface of the scoring run The Beast is on. Paolo’s dropped 30+ PTS sixteen times this season Banchero’s posted fifteen straight games with 20+ PTS, a Career-High. Throw in four games scoring 40+ PTS for good measure, including his career-high 50-Burger against Indiana in the 5th game of the season, just before going down to injury. For all we know, Paolo could have been headed for an All-NBA team between his production and where the Magic could have been in the standings had he (Franz, Suggs, Moritz, Goga) not lost so many games to injury.

Seemingly every night, Paolo Banchero ties or sets a record not seen in Orlando since the Magic Mount Rushmore stars who have graced the blue and white pinstripes before him.

• First player to score 40+ PTS in multiple games in multiple seasons since T-Mac & Shaq after his shootout with Steph (56 PTS) in Orlando.
• Against Toronto, he drilled the most FGs made in a quarter without a miss (8/8 FG) since Shaq.
• After a game in Atlanta, Banchero became the 3rd player in Magic history to have multiple games of 35+ PTS, 10+ REB, and 5+ AST, joining, you guessed it, T-Mac (16x) and Shaq (3x).

I asked Orlando Magic Head Coach Jamahl Mosley how Sequencing factors into his playcalling to keep defenses on their toes with counters of similar plays: “it’s part of the game. it’s the game read. it’s the game feel.”

By The Numbers…

Banchero & Wagner have shared three games this season where they both post a statline of 25+ PTS – 5+ AST – 5+ REB in the same game, the most for a set of teammates in Orlando Magic history.


Paolo is scoring 25.7 PPG, tied for 10th with Cade Cunningham, meaning he scores slightly more points per game than Devin Booker, Anthony Davis, LaMelo Ball, Damian Lillard, Kyrie Irving, LeBron James, Karl-Anthony Towns, and Zion Williamson.

Franz is scoring 24.4 PPG, ranking 20th among all players, sitting just ahead of Steph Curry, Trae Young, and Victor Wembanyama

Paolo’s 7.2 RPG is T-47th with Zion Williamson.
Franz’s 5.7 RPG is T-92nd with Jaylin Williams, Anthony Edwards, Dyson Daniels, and Guerschon Yabusele.

Franz and Paolo are both tied at exactly 4.7 APG a piece, T-51st among all players.

Franz 1.3 SPG is T-37th with many including Lonzo Ball, Bilal Coulibaly, Amen Thompson, Jaren Jackson Jr., Bam Adebayo, Anthony Davis, Jaylen Brown, Donovan Mitchell, and Chris Paul.
Paolo’s 0.8 SPG is T-169th with many players including Giannis Antetokoumnpo, Ben Simmons, Evan Mobley.

Paolo draws the 3rd most Free Throws at 8.3 FTA/gm, converting 73% FT%.
Franz draws the T-25th most Free Throws at 5.4 FTA/gm, hitting 86% FT%.

Paolo shoots the T-56rd most three pointers per game at 6 3PA, the same volume as Gradey Dick, Cade Cunningham, Jamal Murray, Jalen Brunson, and Naz Reid(!)
Franz shoots 30% 3P% from deep on the T-65th most three pointers per game at 5.8 3PA, the same volume as LeBron James, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jared McCain, Desmond Bane, Andrew Wiggins, Jaylen Brown, Max Strus, and Kristaps Porzingis.

Franz is shooting 36% in the clutch on 15/42 FG.
Paolo is shooting 47% in the clutch on 21/45 FG.

Franz Wagner isn’t just Top-15 in PPG and Fast Break PTS, he’s rated even higher in four areas; Franz is exactly the 6th best player in the league this season at scoring Points in the Paint (13 PTS), Points on Drives (10 PTS), and Points off Turnovers (4 PTS) via the Orlando Magic broadcast team.

Paolo Banchero is similarly great in some of these areas, as these are two of the premier paint penetrators in the sport. Paolo averages as many PTS off Drives as Giannis (8.2), T-16th, and scores exactly 10 PTS in the Paint per game, ranking 29th.

In 809 MIN with Franz & Paolo both ON the court together, Orlando has a +2.2 Net Rating.
In 979 MIN with just Franz ON the court and Paolo OFF, Orlando has a +7.74 Net Rating.
In 484 MIN with just Paolo ON the court and Franz OFF, Orlando has a -8.85 Net Rating.

One thought with having multiple point guard creators on the same team is that one can be on the floor at all times; the same can be applied to having two stars, especially when both can serve as an offensive hub every second on the floor.

As the season has gone on, it appears these two are staggered more and more, where goal is to play as few seconds of basketball as possible without one or both of them on the floor – against Charlotte before the All-Star break it was 6 minutes; against Atlanta after the ASB it was 30 seconds; against Memphis the next night it was 4 minutes.

I asked Jamahl Mosley after the Grizzlies matchup what factors come into play when deciding between staggering Franz’ and Paolo’s minutes compared to the benefits of playing them together and keeping a balanced second unit in place behind them:

Volume & Efficiency

Below’s a chart that compares the two stars shooting touch in three efficient shot locations:

Shooting Touch – At The Rim, Free Throw Line, Beyond The Arc

Paolo shoots better from deep on and off the ball.

Franz shows better touch on a much higher volume of shots at the rim on layups and FLOATAs.

Franz shoots much better at the pinstripe, while Paolo gets to the line more often.

Synergy help us see the volume and efficiency for each Player based on the playtypes they categorize every possession into.

Keep in mind, that these tracking stats are still a work in progress; these stats measure the *final* action of a possession – for example, if a team runs 2 pick-and-rolls in a row bending the defense, and then follows that up with 1 handoff that results in shot attempt, that play is tracked as 1 Handoff Possession.

The two charts below shows how Franz and Paolo stack up in every Synergy Playtype as scorers, while 3 playtypes including both scoring and passing to teammates to compare them as Scoring Creator Offensive Engines: ISO, Post Ups, P&R Ball-Handler

To no surprise, Paolo Banchero has the efficiency edge in ISOs, Drives, and Spot Ups; what is interesting is Paolo is also more efficient on Cuts and in Transition this year.

As expected, Franz Wagner is more efficient running Handoffs and P&R as the ball-handler; what may come as a surprise is that Franz is also more efficient as the P&R Roll-Man and as a Post-Up creator hub this season.

One important note is that volume for some of these plays is drastically different. Paolo has 16 handoffs, 35 cuts, 75 P&R roll-man plays on the year; Franz is up to 68 handoffs, 90 cuts, and 30 P&R roll man possessions.

Both big wings like to leak out in Transition, scoring 1.14 and 1.22 PPP respectively on a total of 391 fast break possession between them.

What really stands out for Paolo is his scoring versatility – Paolo averages between 0.93 PPP and 0.99 PPP on his five most common halfcourt playtypes, which might be roughly average efficiency overall, but on high volume these can be reliable actions.

As for Franz, the combined P&R Ball-Handler efficiency and volume jumps off the page, creating over 1.0 per possession on extremely high volume. His efficiency is very good and doesn’t drop off the more the team runs him through the action. This is by far Orlando’s most reliable set to create a good shot through Franz as the offensive engine.

The numbers supporting Post Ups for Franz makes one do a double take. Paolo is the star swishing beautiful baseline fadeaways, yet the numbers say Franz creates more efficient offense for the team when running through him through the post. Franz creates 1.13 PPP on 104 possessions; Paolo creates 0.98 PPP on 131 possessions.

I asked Jamahl Mosley about the advantages created by moving Franz off ball around screens before initiating the downhill action, like in sets like Chicago and Peja where Franz will run around the perimeter through screen(s) into a handoff that helps give him separation from his defender.

Jamahl notes that this idea of creating advantages by moving off ball, gain ahead of steam, running defenders through screens, to create a situation where the scorer can shoot drive or kick with an advantage already created, is the goal for not just Franz, but all of the team’s scoring options:

Tracking The Assist Combo

Sometimes Boogie looks for The Beast; sometimes The Beast needs a little Boogie.

Paolo assisted Franz 40 times this year, the most of any duo on the team; Franz found Paolo for 27 dimes this season, the T-5th most of any combo on the team.

They have both assisted each other directly at the rim exactly 18 times a piece, T-3rd most of any duo on the team.

Considering how few games these two have actually played together, these marks show how they both prioritize looking for each other on the court for the most efficient shot in halfcourt – at the rim.

As for the costars finding the rest of the team for good looks at the rim and beyond the arc, Franz has created more total shots for his teammates (89 3PT AST, 110 ATR AST) compared to Paolo’s totals (72 3PT AST, 52 ATR AST), partially due to playing more games this season.

However, when the number is based on racking up dimes on a more comparable one-to-one scale of per one hundred possessions, the shot creation rates look much closer.

Paolo creates more looks for the team from deep (3.02 3PT AST per 100 poss),
but fewer dimes at the rim. (2.13 ATR AST per 100 poss)

Franz creates fewer looks for the team from deep (2.8 3PT AST per 100 poss),
and a much higher rate of dimes at the rim. (3.4 ATR AST per 100 poss)

(assist combo numbers via 3.18.25)

Boogie Nights

Some of Orlando’s many 4pt swings each game comes when the defense forces a turnover, the ball finds Franz, he immediately looks up the floor, and finds Banchero streaking down the sideline outlet for a breakaway slam, or he pushes the pace to create a 2-on-1 alley oop lob to Banchero on the break.

The majority of Franz assists to Paolo came in transition for 10 fast break buckets.

The 2nd-most assists from Franz to Paolo came on the move in the half court, with 8 assists coming on off ball cuts and 3pt kickouts.

The Franz-Paolo Pick-and-Roll hasn’t been used often, but it stands as a powerful weapon up Orlando’s sleeve going forward that unlocks Paolo as a short-roll playmaker and Franz as an on-ball creator with a screen, both pulling attention from defenses.

I asked Jamahl Mosley how high the volume of the Franz-Paolo P&R could reach for Orlando as one of the team’s staples sets:

“I really do believe that those two create a problem. And so, when you have two of your best players in P&R — they’ve got to make a decision — and they’re both great playmakers. And so, I think them being able to make plays and read off each other is something that can cause problems for a defense down the stretch.” – Jamahl Mosley

This action sets up the playfinishers around those two to finish at the rim or from beyond the arc. Send two at Franz or Paolo if you like living in your own nightmare.

Franz found Paolo 3 times for assists when running P&R. On two other possessions, Paolo drew a shooting foul after Franz found him in the 2-man P&R set.

Unleash The Beast

Oddly, Paolo did not assist Franz one time in any inverted P&R, and that action doesn’t seem to be used often where Paolo is initiating and Franz is the roll man, probably since this duo’s strengths may be most effective as a combination in the order described before with Franz on ball and Paolo setting the first screen.

Paolo most often found Franz on off ball cuts or relocation threes 21 times.

Winning early post positioning has been key to unlocking quick easy baskets for these two, looking for each other up the court once one has secured the advantage under the rim deep into the paint before the defense is set. One of the most reliable buckets every game is Franz taking off in transition, planting his feet deep in the paint, posting up the first mismatch he sees. Paolo hit ahead to Franz in transition 13 times.

Paolo also found Franz 2 times in the post after securing positioning advantage in halfcourt situations. Sometimes you’ll see one set a back screen for the other in the middle of a set like Horns to help force switches and create mismatches, shown here:

Finding a guard concept that works around Paolo and Franz is the next step

Orlando’s up and down season can be directly attributed to injuries first, and shooting luck second. Even this late in the season has seen volatile stretches, with the team now 6-4 in their last 10 after bouncing back from an 5-game losing streak. What’s been the difference as of late outside of the chemistry of these two stars?

Anthony Black‘s play has been the wildcard factor for this team. His defense is reliable enough to start every night, and his decision-making feel is special, two traits that define the strengths of his game. Even though he’s just in Year 2, he’s become the team’s third scorer, first option off the bench, and third big playmaker who can initiate offense and even space the floor.

When AB’s shot is falling and he finds a way to score, this team is often more competitive:

in Orlando’s 33 wins with AB playing, he scores 11 PPG on 60% TS% and 43% 3P%
in Orlando’s 37 losses with AB playing, he scores 8 PPG on 45% TS% and 20% 3P%

Black continues to develop the 3pt shot despite receiving constant criticism of his shot. In his last 31 games, Black is shooting 40% 3P% from deep on 2.6 3PAs per game; in his 39 games prior, Anthony shot 24% 3P% on 2.4 3PA per game.

I asked Anthony Black about his about his changing role due to injuries and his 3pt development after a 4/5 3P outing “I’m pretty comfortable playing where I’m at right now. It gives me a chance to operate a little bit, while also playing some minutes with our two guys.”

Another underrated factor has been the addition of 33yo Cory Joseph into the starting lineup.

You know a team is shuffling the rotation with injuries when arguably the 7th guard on the roster to start the year is now their most trustworthy starter.

Credit to Cory for doing the little things that have earned that spot: team-first ball movement, hit the open shot, run some O when called upon, take what the D gives you, hold your own defensively. Joseph serves as a fine example of the type of connector floor-stretching plus-defender guard who can slide right into an offense featuring two big wing playmaking initiators.

Orlando has a +8.9 rating in 173 MIN when they play Cory Joseph alongside Boogie and The Beast.

Cory earned the starting job after an impressive stretch against Toronto. Despite losing the game, Orlando mounted a 14pt comeback after inserting Joseph into the game to close with 10 MIN to play for the first time all night, making Cory a +14 on the night. He’s started ever since, leading Orlando to a .500 record after a rough stretch after the All-Star break.

I asked Jamahl Mosley how much he trusts the veteran experience of Cory Joseph after the game:

There’s no more debate to be had; Franz Wagner & Paolo Banchero are NBA Stars, rising suns for a team with the 2nd best defense in the league for the second straight season.

What separates the Orlando Magic from pretenders to contenders is that volatile 3pt factor. Whether they find a guard who can draw two on the ball with pull-up 3pt gravity or flank these two supernovas with more consistent shooters, that’s the last step to go from making the playoffs to competing in them.

The cool thing about this article is it starts and ends with the same picture – the Magic’s defense runs on Chaos Energy, and once Boogie and The Beast carve out the super to their star, this team might just mess around and find the rings they covet.

Stats via Synergy, NBA Stats, Basketball Reference, Dunks and Threes, and Magic PR as of 03.27.25 unless otherwise noted

The post Boogie and The Beast appeared first on Swish Theory.

For our most recent mock draft, featuring written explanations for each pick, go here.

1. Cooper Flagg, Duke

Do-it-all wing with premium skill and athleticism

2. Dylan Harper, Rutgers

Bruising driving guard and potent scorer

3. Collin Murray-Boyles, South Carolina

Elite playmaking forward on both sides of the ball

4. VJ Edgecombe, Baylor

Explosive scoring guard and lockdown defender

5. Khaman Maluach, Duke

Towering young big with upside as a play finisher and rim protector

6. Derik Queen, Maryland

Creative big-bodied drive threat who can pass

7. Jeremiah Fears, Oklahoma

Young lead guard with dribble, pass, shoot upside

8. Ace Bailey, Rutgers

Versatile shooting wing with dynamic athleticism

9. Tre Johnson, Texas

Tough shotmaker all over the court

10. Jase Richardson, Michigan State

Three-level scoring guard with quick processing

11. Kasparas Jakucionis, Illinois

Pull-up maestro with passing creativity

12. Kon Knueppel, Duke

Three-point sniper with shooting versatility and P&R playmaking chops

13. Asa Newell, Georgia

Versatile defender, glass-crashing post-up threat developing three point shot

14. Noa Essengue, ULM

Sinewy rim attacker with budding ball skills and defensive versatility

15. Thomas Sorber, Georgetown

Tough freshman PF with strong feel for the game

16. Noah Penda, Le Mans

Menacing wing defender and offensive connector

17. Ben Saraf, ULM

Best passer in class as a game managing point guard and scorer

18. Labaron Philon, Alabama

Gadgety, versatile, productive guard every team could use

19. Miles Byrd, San Diego State

Stocks machine with shooting potential

20. Nolan Traore, Saint-Quentin

Quick first-step point guard who is a willing shooter and active defender

21. Bennett Stirtz, Drake

Potentially underrated lead guard up-transfer from Division II

22. Nique Clifford, Colorado State

Fluid-moving upperclassman who does a little of everything

23. Kam Jones, Marquette

Paint touch machine, three-level scorer who can pass

24. Rasheer Fleming, Saint Joseph’s

Big wing who can shoot with a 7’5” wingspan

25. Danny Wolf, Michigan

Unique ball-handling point center with quick processing skills

26. Johni Broome, Auburn

Versatile playmaking forward as one of best NCAA players in the country

27. Liam McNeeley, Connecticut

Three-point threat who attacks closeouts looking to finish strong

28. Carter Bryant, Arizona

Talented freshman wing providing a punch off the bench

29. Anthony Robinson II, Missouri

Point-of-attack demon with some ball skills

30. Ryan Kalkbrenner, Creighton

Big man upperclassman who dominates the paint on both ends

31. Tahaad Pettiford, Auburn

Dribble-pass-shoot quick small guard

32. Will Riley, Illinois

Under-developed young wing shooter and passer

33. Yaxel Lendeborg, UAB

Elbow/post hub with a well-rounded driving game and plus passing

34. JT Toppin, Texas Tech

High motor, high producing rim attacker

35. Alex Condon, Florida

Sharp-passing sophomore big who can grease an offense and get stocks

36. Adou Thiero, Arkansas

Physical slasher who creates events on defense

37. Egor Demin, BYU

Elite passer with inconsistent play against top competition

38. Darrion Williams, Texas Tech

Skilled upperclassman who can shoot and pass from the wing

39. Joshua Jefferson, Iowa State

Physical defender with some connector chops as a big wing

40. Flory Bidunga, Kansas

Undersized but hyper-athletic rangy big

41. Walter Clayton Jr.

High volume three point shooter who can do some guard things

42. Boogie Fland, Arkansas

Game managing shooter and passer

43. Alex Karaban, Connecticut

Elite shooter and wing defender, national champion

44. Hugo Gonzalez, Real Madrid

Toolsy high motor player with versatility

45. Dailyn Swain, Xavier

Sparks of dribble-pass-shoot ability for this athletic wing

46. JoJo Tugler, Houston

+12 wingspan for this mobile rim protector

47. Rocco Zikarsky, Brisbane

18-year-old with a chance to be best rim protector in class

48. Javon Small, West Virginia

Highly productive lead guard essential to WVU

49. Ian Jackson, North Carolina

Pure scoring freshman who can catch fire like few others

50. Drake Powell, North Carolina

Hyperactive freshman defender with shooting potential

51. Tomislav Ivisic, Illinois

Floor-spacing center and ball-mover

52. Zvonimir Ivisic, Arkansas

PNR roll & pop 7’2” big

53. Xaivian Lee, Princeton

Shifty guard who can table set and let it fly from deep

54. Bogoljub Markovic, KK Mega

Astounding rebounder with some intriguing movement skills at 6’11”

55. Max Shulga, VCU

Strong combo guard who can run some PNR

56. Chad Baker-Mazara, Auburn

Upperclassman utility wing with a smooth shot

57. Eric Dixon, Villanova

Pure shooting 6’8” upperclassman, one of best players in NCAA

58. Otega Oweh, Kentucky

Tough-nosed defender and transition threat

59. Maxime Raynaud, Stanford

Spacing seven-footer with a post game

The post 2025 NBA Draft Big Board 2.0 appeared first on Swish Theory.

For the third straight season to begin his career, the Houston Rockets are much better when Eason is on the court. And he’s covered his bases, improving a bad team in 2023, a mediocre team (albeit in just 480 minutes) in 2024, and a good team here in 2025. Better yet, the Rockets improve exactly where you’d expect them to, given Eason’s play-style.

In each of the soon-to-be-24-year-old’s first three seasons, the Rockets…

• take more shots directly at the rim
• shoot more free-throws
• grab (far) more offensive rebounds
• force more turnovers
• and thus, initiate transition offense more often

…when Eason is on the court, vs. when he sits (per Cleaning the Glass).

It’s turned out be quite the marriage between team and player. On a team full of quick, long-armed athletes who struggle to shoot the 3-pointer, Eason helps the Rockets play the way they need to play. Throughout Swish Theory’s installments of Finding a Role, including my earlier introduction of this season’s crop of players, Eason may be the closest to having found a role.

Alas, some brake-pumping is required. It’ll be tough to gauge his individual offense in such a unique(-ly congested) offensive environment in these upcoming playoffs, but we should still learn much about Eason’s viability in the half-court. Despite an uninspiring 3-point shooting profile for an off-ball wing (34.6% on 5.3 largely stationary catch-and-shoot attempts per 100 possessions), there are long stretches of off-ball production.

He applies earnest pressure on the rim in his off-ball role, often turning his many cuts into offensive rebounds. Pairing quite well with Alperen Şengün’s work around the blocks and elbows, Eason is timing his movement and recognizes gaps in the defense better than ever before. The first put-back here is an absolute beauty:

His offensive rebounding game blends with his cutting in Houston’s offense. If, say, Şengün or Dillon Brooks miss him roaming the baseline, then Eason ends up on the block, in prime position to put back one of the many mid-range shots the Rockets take.

Thus, Eason is a more willing outside shooter than the raw volume suggests. He doesn’t pass up a ton of open catch-and-shoot threes, even above-the-break; in fact, he’d probably be taking eight or nine 3PA’s per 100 if he wasn’t one of the league’s more active cutters/rebounders from the wing, despite a slow release.

The bigger road-block to half-court versatility (Synergy Sports has Eason has a 22nd percentile scorer in spot-up situations) is what happens when he gets downhill. This strong, rangy Rocket has some athletic deficiencies, believe it or not. A lack of vertical athleticism and flexibility/balance often pop up on his drives. In other words, if Eason has to avoid a defender in mid-air — say on an up-and-under move — he’s likely missing that look:

Eason’s drives finish more smoothly when he gets to two feet, true of most players.

And in fairness, it seems as if he’s made a concerted effort to slow down in the lane, getting to two feet more often. After shooting 56.1% at the rim over his first two seasons, he’s at 63.9% in 2025, much more appropriate for his 6’8″, plus-wingspan frame (Cleaning the Glass).

But as I noted in Eason’s introduction, his passing is likely the key to upping his value, especially in a different team context than Houston’s. His passing numbers still resemble the head-down play-finisher he is, but the flashes don’t. This is particularly true in transition, where Eason is a threat to grab, go, and make a high-value read. In the half-court, there are more tunnel-vision moments, but still plays that resemble his transition game.

It’s not that Eason can’t make the reads. Partially evidenced by his off-ball activity, he understands pressure points and rotations, particularly in advantage situations. It’s when he’s pressed for time — attacking a crowded paint instead of dribbling the ball end-to-end — that his decision-making wavers.

Per Synergy, Eason has only attempted a dozen shots as the screener in pick-and-roll situations this season. The Rockets don’t have a ton of guards defenses need to double, but at some point, hopefully soon, he gets some opportunities in the short-roll. Blessing him with some 4-on-3 situations and more familiar floor balance than dribble-drives should provide some insight as to his play-making ceiling.

Thanks to the NBA’s publicly available tracking data, we know Eason averages 8.4 potential assists + hockey assists per 100 touches, in line with fellow off-ball wings Kelly Oubre and Dorian Finney-Smith, but higher than teammates Jabari Smith Jr. and Cam Whitmore. (For reference, Royce O’Neale, one of the NBA’s great off-ball passers, is averaging north of 20 potential assists + hockey assists per 100 touches.)

If you were completely unfamiliar with Tari Eason prior to this article, and, after reading about his offense, you now had to speculate how he plays defense … I think you could do it.

He creates chaos, with a insane combined steal + block rate a hair under 6% — to be clear, that means nearly 6% of all possessions end with him stealing the ball or blocking a shot:

Of course, Eason is prone to a high foul-rate and some overly risky moments, as with any gambler of his caliber. This is mostly fine with Houston, perpetually eager to get out in transition and avoid running their often stagnant half-court offense.

Still, experience is getting to Eason. There are plays driven by recognition and understanding that he would not have made over his first two seasons. Here, Jayson Tatum uses double-drags, with Eason’s man setting the first screen:

Eason initially switches his assignment, readying for Tatum to turn the corner, only to step back up and offer a strong contest, though Tatum makes the pull-up three anyway.

Though the Rockets are experimenting with Eason’s matchups, he seems more comfortable guarding up than down. His screen-navigation, though occasionally solid, leaves something to be desired…

…and his penchant for poking at the ball can leave him vulnerable to smaller, quicker players blowing right by him.

Conversely, Eason is comfortably boxing out bigger players down low, and even attacking ball-handlers in 2-on-1 situations. Not only can he switch onto opponents, but thanks to his improved awareness and anticipation skills, we could see some drop coverage in his future, similar to Dorian Finney-Smith moonlighting as a micro-ball 5 throughout his career.

Like the Houston Rockets as a whole, Eason’s playoff fortunes could depend largely on matchup. Teams with such limited outside shooting can’t survive any random opponent, just like modern wings. But Eason is truly finding a role, and he helps make the Rockets who they are.

Thanks to his constant pressure on both sides the ball, Tari Eason is going to force his way onto the court come late-April. How that goes, though, is anybody’s guess.

The post Finding a Role: Tari Eason Update appeared first on Swish Theory.

This one is a no-brainer. Flagg is a special prospect, capable of instantly changing the fortunes of any team that selects him. Washington is the fortunate one here, landing their future primary initiator and defensive leader. Flagg helps round out their already promising young core, adding a true superstar prospect to the mix.

– Ben Pfeifer

2. Charlotte Hornets: Collin Murray-Boyles, South Carolina

As a sophomore, Collin Murray-Boyles has boosted both efficiency (82nd percentile to 83rd percentile) and frequency (65th percentile to 70th percentile) as a post-up hub, possesses a burgeoning perimeter isolation game (88th percentile efficiency on 88th percentile frequency), and is a dominant passer in a variety of situations (career 19.8% AST and 1.2 A:TO). With elite offensive production regardless of usage, team context, and opponent difficulty as a young sophomore, Murray-Boyles has all the ingredients of an offensive star. Pair that potential with incredible defensive production, baseline touch, and outlier development indicators galore, and he has endless avenues to impact even if the offensive stardom doesn’t manifest. For a Charlotte team that ranks 29th in offense and 19th in defense, Murray-Boyles brings an integration of both offense and defense that lags behind only Cooper Flagg.

– Maurya Kumpatla

3. Utah Jazz: Dylan Harper, Rutgers

Dylan Harper has established himself as one of the clear-cut top prospects in the 2025 class, combining ideal size for a ball-handler with the ability to generate consistent paint touches via advanced footwork and elite body control. He’s had to handle huge creation responsibility on a Rutgers team devoid of much shooting or ball handling to surround him, and has still managed to be efficient (59% TS%) in spite of that. The biggest question/swing skill with Harper is how well he’ll shoot it at the NBA level, but his percentages (35% 3pt, 74% FT) are respectable enough that you have to imagine that he’ll at least be a decent shooter. Even with Isaiah Collier showing promise as a lead ball-handler in his rookie year, Harper is too good of a prospect to pass up at #3.

– AJ Carter

4. New Orleans Pelicans: Kasparas Jakucionis, Illinois

The Pelicans underwent a pseudo youth movement and Jakucionis will only add to it. They’ve needed more high-end playmaking for Zion Williamson’s entire career, making Jakucionis a perfect fit here. His shooting provides a tantalizing ceiling on the ball and will help him space and cut next to Williamson.

– Ben Pfeifer

5. Toronto Raptors: Khaman Maluach, Duke

Khaman Maluach is a monster. With a true shooting percentage over 70, Maluach is one of the most efficient players in his role in the entire country, despite being introduced to the game of basketball later in life. With fewer years of experience, it is fair to expect some growing pains and there certainly have been some this season at Duke. What has impressed me most throughout the year is not Maluach’s freaky athleticism, true center size, overwhelming offensive rebounding or hyper-efficient scoring, it has been the rate at which he has improved throughout the college season. Playing the five in the NBA will take some refining, it is the most difficult (and important) defensive role on the court, and few players walk into the league ready to do so. With Maluach’s physical tools, potential touch and competitiveness he has all the tools to be a true building block for Toronto. It is hard to imagine a more perfect mentor than Jakob Poeltl as he learns the ropes of NBA defense.

– Tyler Wilson

6. Philadelphia 76ers: Asa Newell, Georgia

Asa checks many boxes for this Sixers team, fitting cleanly at the 4 in the starting lineup and providing a reliable backup 5 option behind Embiid. The strengths of Newell’s game complement this team between his pinpoint offensive rebounding, frontcourt defensive versatility, helpside shot blocking, catch-and-shoot 3pt shooting potential, and the ability to attack closeouts with the shot or pumpfake, drive, and post-up hook. Newell slides right into the starting unit without taking touches from the star scorers and will produce as a positionless defender and off-ball play finisher.

– Ryan Kaminski

7. Brooklyn Nets: VJ Edgecombe, Baylor

VJ Edgecombe has managed to alleviate many concerns brought about by his early season play by consistently shooting the ball from distance (39.5% from 3 in conference play), while increasing both his volume and efficiency as a driver. Despite Edgecombe’s becoming more heavily featured within the Baylor offense, his defensive effort and production has seldom waned. This effort and production has come even though Edgecombe has been cast in a variety of roles and schemes as Baylor constantly tinkered to compensate for the lack of size in their rotation. The schematic inconsistencies have managed to provide a glimpse of how Edgecombe could be deployed as a ‘utility guard’, an archetype which has recently come into vogue and has in many ways defined the best defenses in the NBA over the past few years. Combining the versatile defensive ability with an increasingly potent offense has made Edgecombe a no-brainer pick at this juncture of the draft.

– Ahmed Jama

8. Chicago Bulls: Jase Richardson, Michigan State

The 6’3 quick guard can score at all levels, threatening teams with his feathery touch, feel, and footwork. At pick #8, Richardson was the perfect player for the Chicago Bulls to add to their young core and build on their halfcourt creation. Jase Richardson can hold up defensively for a small guard while being an extremely role-malleable offensive player. The bet for the Bulls is that Richardson’s shot-making inside the arc continues to evolve and translate further beyond the arc, enabling him to keep up with a higher usage role in the long term. In the short term, the Chicago Bulls play with a high transition frequency under Coach Billy Donovan which is a perfect fit with how effective Richardson is in the open-court.

– Roshan Potluri

9. San Antonio Spurs: Ace Bailey, Rutgers

Ace Bailey would be a strong pick for the San Antonio Spurs due to his exceptional shot-making ability and positional size at 6-foot-10, offering a high-ceiling wing who can create his own offense alongside Victor Wembanyama and De’Aaron Fox. His scoring versatility and length could complement the Spurs’ growing core, adding a dynamic perimeter threat to elevate their attack.

– Larry Golden

10. San Antonio Spurs: Derik Queen, Maryland

Derik Queen brings a positionally unique form of advantage creation as a post-hub passer with off-the-dribble shooting upside. Still, his offensive versatility is paired with limited defensive versatility: he’s at the horrid intersection of poor lateral quickness, poor vertical explosion, and underwhelming center size. There isn’t a better fit for this type of offensively tilted, defensively limited PF/C than alongside Victor Wembanyama, potentially the most transcendent two-way center in NBA history.

– Avinash Chauhan

11. Portland Trailblazers: Noa Essengue, ULM

The Portland Trailblazers get one of the youngest players and higher upside propositions in the 2025 NBA Draft at pick #11. Noa Essengue fits what Portland is building with its group of rangy defenders and strong interior presence. At 6’10, Essengue is a versatile defensive player who can operate out of the point-of-attack, back-line, or general help situations. Offensively, Essengue has been dominant in transition and applying physicality in the half-court for Ulm in the German BBL this season, and that can immediately translate to the NBA. While the shooting and strength are still a work in progress, Essengue has been improving these traits at a drastic rate enabling him to be someone who can attack off the catch consistently during his rookie-scale deal.

– Roshan Potluri

12. Houston Rockets: Thomas Sorber, Georgetown

While it was tough to pass up Tre Johnson, I liked the idea of Sorber within this group of exciting young players even more. The idea is somewhat like why they brought Steven Adams in, to provide a physical interior presence, good screening and strong passing. Sorber might eventually shoot it, too, with a smooth form and solid free throw and midrange percentages for a big.

– Matt Powers

13. Atlanta Hawks: Tre Johnson, Texas

Tre Johnson has had one of the most impressive scoring seasons from a high-major freshman in recent memory. Posting a 6.5 Offensive Box Plus-Minus in conference play, second amongst freshmen and only trailing Cooper Flagg, Johnson has ameliorated many concerns of how quickly his game would translate to the most difficult conference in the country. Despite shouldering a massive 27% usage rate, Johnson has managed to adapt and make significant progress both as a facilitator and driver, consistently elevating his rim-rate over the course of the season without detracting from his efficiency. Johnson’s malleability as an offensive player bodes well to his professional career, as his ability to synergize with more interior based scorers will be crucial considering Johnson’s defensive limitations.

– Ahmed Jama

14. Utah Jazz: Kon Knueppel, Duke

For teams looking for shooting on the wing, Kon is one of the premier shotmakers in this year’s draft. He lacks much explosiveness or burst as an athlete, but has strong positional size and is a skilled scorer from every part of the court. Kon is a knockdown shooter off the catch but has more variety to his shotmaking than just that, showing the ability to make pull-ups off the dribble or use his size to carve out space for short jumpers. It remains to be seen how well he’ll be able to survive on defense at the NBA level, but offensively Kon has one of the most translatable skillsets in the draft.

– AJ Carter

15. Orlando Magic: Danny Wolf, Michigan

Have you seen this guy play basketball? Danny Wolf is a grab-and-go seven-foot offensive hub diming up defenses on fast breaks and pick and rolls. Wolf flashes exciting handles, natural point center vision, and incredible feel for the game, hitting highlight pull-up threes and tough finishing touch shots at the rim. Danny makes good reads as a primary decision maker reacting to defenses, averaging 1.01 PPP on “P&R including passes” that ranks in the 84th percentile of all college players.

– Ryan Kaminski

16. Oklahoma City Thunder: Noah Penda, Le Mans

Noah Penda’s integration of length (6-foot-11 wingspan), strength (225 lbs), instincts, and hand-eye coordination have led him to a league-leading blocks total and 2nd-best steals totals as just a 20-year-old in the French Jeep Elite, giving him an argument for best non-big defender in the class. For an Oklahoma City Thunder scheme that’s already historic at forcing turnovers and boasts rim protection from each position, Penda adds even more value. Though he brings shooting and finishing question marks, he’s on a special developmental trajectory as a shooter, and his monster offensive rebounding-assists-stocks integration promises further room for growth.

– Maurya Kumpatla

17. Dallas Mavericks: Jeremiah Fears, Oklahoma

The idea of Kyrie Irving mentoring Fears is too appealing to pass up, but Fears is easily my best on the board at this point. Much like why I drafted him to the Nets in our prior mock draft, Fears has some of the best dribble-pass-shoot upside in the class, carrying a heavy burden for Oklahoma at age 18. It’s tough to find primary upside this late, but the Mavs do here.

– Matt Powers

18. Oklahoma City Thunder: Bennett Stirtz, Drake

Bennett Stirtz is one of the best volume pick-and-roll scorers in all of college basketball, fusing pace, a tight handle, and shotmaking from every area on the court to power 87th percentile pick-and-roll ballhandler efficiency on 99th percentile frequency. He pairs this scoring with best-in-the-class feel, blending visual manipulation with a wide range of deliveries to produce a 35% assist rate and engine a top-40 Drake halfcourt offense. All this makes him an underrated creation bet, but a 47% catch-and-shoot jumpshot and tons of driving production give him a strong dribble/pass/shoot wing base. His footspeed on defense in such a role would be worrisome, but his strong feel and hand-eye coordination that leads to defensive playmaking (3.6% steal rate) would fit like a glove in Oklahoma City.

– Maurya Kumpatla

19. Miami Heat: Dailyn Swain, Xavier

At pick #19, the Miami Heat select Dailyn Swain: the young sophomore forward with creative ball-handling and lock-down defense out of Xavier. Standing at 6’8, Swain fits the Heat’s culture of players who play with a motor and a sense of toughness, which exudes itself in how Swain consistently impacts games in the most opportunistic ways. The impact is seen without needing to play on the ball at Xavier – Swain runs the break hard in transition, keeps the ball moving in the halfcourt, and is always hustling on the boards. That energy, with his size and length, translates to the defensive end where he can cover ground well and excel in lock and trail situations. While the defense and feel on the offensive end will keep him on the court early on, the Heat will need to improve Swain’s two-motion jumper for Swain to hit any form of creation upside. However, in the middle of the first round, Swain’s combination of age, size, burst, feel, flexibility, and handling comfort makes him a worthy proposition for a retooling Heat team.

– Roshan Potluri

20. Minnesota Timberwolves: Nolan Traore, Saint-Quentin

With Mike Conley’s decline Minnesota has a clear need for long-term ball-handling/shot creation outside of Anthony Edwards. While 2024 draft pick Rob Dillingham is an obvious candidate to fill a lot of that responsibility in coming years, it wouldn’t hurt to take another swing on a potential creator. Traore has slid down draft boards after being a preseason potential top 5 pick candidate due to a lack of efficiency and consistency, but outside of the lottery it’s hard to find players with more upside than Traore. Despite struggles this season he still has the talent to be a dynamic creator off the dribble if he can improve as a shotmaker and make smarter decisions with the ball.

– AJ Carter

21. Indiana Pacers: Ben Saraf, ULM

Rick Carlisle loves guards, and Saraf gives the Pacers another dribble-drive-pass threat. The three-point shot is poor off the dribble but acceptable off the catch. At a strong 6’5” and still just 18, Saraf has the build and productivity of someone capable of handling bench primary duties. Perhaps the single best passer in the class.

– Matt Powers

22. Brooklyn Nets: Ryan Kalkbrenner, Creighton

Kalkbrenner’s brand of mistake-free basketball, characterized by foul and TO avoidance, is inherently low friction, and his sheer size (7’5 WS + 250 lbs) with relative mobility gives him a fairly high floor as a defender.  He’s exhibited NBA-caliber dominance since his sophomore year, and he’s slowly increased his 3P rate while consistently shooting over 70% FT for his college career. With much more room to err and experiment on the rebuilding Nets, Kalk’s collegiate extent of dominance may persist more than one would expect with a typical four-year center.

– Avinash Chauhan

23. Brooklyn Nets: Carter Bryant, Arizona

You don’t see too many bulky, athletic forwards take over half their shots from beyond 3P, but at 6’8, 225 pounds, Carter has a whopping 0.60 3P rate while remaining hyper-efficient inside the arc (14 of his 37 2P makes are dunks). The upside with Carter lies within his pull up game: in interviews, he consistently cites players like Tatum and Paul George as personal exemplars, and his AAU playtype distribution was littered with far too many pullups and PnR BH possessions. While his production and processing (7.6 BPM, 6% block, 3% steal, 1 A:TO) give him a reasonably high floor, it’s Carter’s tantalizing combination of youth, size, and shooting proclivity that could unlock true star upside.

– Avinash Chauhan

24. Atlanta Hawks: Liam McNeeley, Connecticut

This was an easy selection, and I would imagine Atlanta would be pretty stoked to draft someone at 24 who is all but a guaranteed NBA rotation player. McNeeley gets it in more ways than one. He is a surprisingly effective defensive rebounder despite his physical limitations, he makes quick decisions on and off the ball, and (somewhat surprisingly) has shown the ability to handle a larger offensive load than he did in high school playing on one of the most stacked teams in recent memory. McNeeley will present some questions defensively, but he should be able to slide into lineups featuring both Dyson Daniels and Jalen Johnson easily. He’s only hit ~35% of his threes this season, but don’t let that deceive you, McNeeley is one of the premier off-ball weapons in this class.

– Tyler Wilson

25. Washington Wizards: Labaron Philon, Alabama

Philon was by far the best player available, but he’s a logical fit for a Washington team still looking for high-end talent. The Alabama freshman is a quick, shifty guard who pressures the rim and passes at a high level. He could develop into a valuable connector piece for a Wizards team that just added Cooper Flagg.

– Ben Pfeifer

26. Orlando Magic: Tahaad Pettiford, Auburn

Tahaad Pettiford brings downhill explosiveness, quick first step burst, soft finishing touch, pull-up 3pt shooting range, and two-way feel to a team that needs it. A guard that can penetrate the paint, attack the rim, kick out to shooters, score and shoot the rock who can hold his own defensively would see a warm welcome in Orlando. He’ll have opportunity to develop as Orlando continues building a perennial playoff contender, where maybe the Magic won’t need to make a splashy trade if they can nail the right complementary guard to their core in the draft.

– Ryan Kaminski

27. Brooklyn Nets: Kam Jones, Marquette

Kam Jones would be a strong pick for the Brooklyn Nets due to his proven scoring ability and playmaking skills, averaging over 20 points and 6 assists per game at Marquette, which could bolster their backcourt during a rebuild. His experience as a senior guard, combined with his improved shooting and passing, makes him a ready-made contributor who could thrive in Brooklyn’s system under Jordi Fernández.

– Larry Golden

28. Boston Celtics: Rasheer Fleming, St. Joseph’s

Fleming is a bit of a divisive selection as a lower-usage upperclassman playing in the A10, but at pick #28 the positives are too hard to ignore. He has been massive for St. Joe’s this year, shooting over 70% at the rim and 41% from three. In an era of NBA basketball where efficient shots are valued more than ever, Fleming is an easy bet to score in the most valuable areas of the court. His block, steal and rebounding numbers are all positive and point towards a genuine contributor on the defensive side of the ball as a powerful forward with the ability to play some small-ball five. If Boston truly “needs” anything in the draft, it is cost-controlled production. Fleming should provide real value on his rookie deal as an older prospect with the frame and complementary skillet to produce immediately. 

– Tyler Wilson

29. Los Angeles Clippers: Nique Clifford, Colorado State

Nique Clifford to the Los Angeles Clippers would be great because of his versatility as a 6-foot-6 guard bringing defensive flexibility and rebounding tenacity, addressing the team’s need for depth on the wing alongside stars like Kawhi Leonard and James Harden. His senior-year performance at Colorado State—averaging 15.6 points, 9.7 rebounds, and 2.8 assists on efficient shooting—shows he could provide immediate contributions as a role player for the Clips.

– Larry Golden

30. Phoenix Suns: Anthony Robinson II, Missouri

It is unclear in which direction the Suns want to go, and Ant gives them options. His POA defense is NBA-ready, a thief ready to pounce at any moment. The best player on a top-20 team in the nation as a sophomore, Robinson is able to do important things on the court. He is the team leader in assists who has also shown outside shooting potential with 42% from three, 49% from midrange and 77% from the line splits. Despite being only 6’3”, Ant’s reported 6’7” wingspan makes him more dangerous in passing lanes or snagging the errant offensive board. His 0.78 free throw rate reiterates his level of physicality, NBA ready despite the skinny frame.

– Matt Powers

31. Boston Celtics: Johni Broome, Auburn

32. Charlotte Hornets: Miles Byrd, San Diego State

33. Minnesota Timberwolves: Flory Bidunga, Kansas

34. Charlotte Hornets: Yaxel Lendeborg, UAB

35. Detroit Pistons: Paul McNeil, NC State

36. Philadelphia 76ers: Adou Thiero, Arkansas

37. Brooklyn Nets: Javon Small, West Virginia

38. Sacramento Kings: Darrion Williams, Texas Tech

39. San Antonio Spurs: Chad Baker-Mazara, Auburn

40. Toronto Raptors: Eric Dixon, Villanova

41. Oklahoma City Thunder: Joshua Jefferson, Iowa State

42. Washington Wizards: Egor Demin, BYU

43. Orlando Magic: Boogie Fland, Arkansas

44. Golden State Warriors: JoJo Tugler, Houston

45. Chicago Bulls: Max Shulga, VCU

46. Los Angeles Clippers: Walter Clayton Jr., Florida

47. Utah Jazz: Alex Toohey, Sydney

48. Washington Wizards: Nate Bittle, Oregon

49. Utah Jazz: Tyrese Proctor, Duke

50. Washington Wizards: JT Toppin, Texas Tech

51. Cleveland Cavaliers: Nolan Winter, Wisconsin

52. Indiana Pacers: Alex Condon, Florida

53. Memphis Grizzlies: Isaiah Evans, Duke

54. Los Angeles Lakers: Curtis Jones, Iowa State

55. New York Knicks: Terrance Arceneaux, Houston

56. Phoenix Suns: Hugo Gonzalez, Real Madrid

57. Orlando Magic: Otega Oweh, Kentucky

58. Houston Rockets: Rocco Zikarsky

59. Cleveland Cavaliers: Braden Smith, Purdue

The post 2025 NBA Mock Draft 2.0 appeared first on Swish Theory.

The 7-1 start in the Jimmy era has certainly provided some answers. The team’s energy has returned, and vibes are undoubtedly restored. The initial numbers are positive, as the vibe shift translates to on-court results. Most notable to me is the discovery of a new lineup that has resuscitated their efficacy on both ends of the floor and could be a major tool come playoff time. That lineup consists of Stephen Curry, Brandin Podziemski, Moses Moody, Jimmy Butler, and Draymond Green.

First, some stats for this lineup. It’s far and away the preferred Jimmy Butler unit since the deadline with more than twice as many possessions as the next lineup, and it is efficient. So far, the unit boasts a 114.7 offensive rating (57th percentile) and a 100.8 defensive rating (99th percentile), good for a +14 net rating that is 96th percentile amongst all five-man units per Cleaning the Glass (go subscribe to their service, by the way!). This is accomplished through their elite turnover and free-throw gaps, uncommon for this iteration of the Warriors.

This five-man unit boasts a 10.1% turnover rate (99th percentile) while turning over their opponents 19.4% of the time, a 94th percentile mark. The free throw gap is just as preposterous with a 22.3% free throw rate (90th percentile) and only allowing a 9.8% mark on defense, tops in the league. They also manage comparable eFG% numbers (50.8% to 53%) and offensive rebound rates (29% to 27%). Winning three of the four factors, and dominating two of them, is an excellent formula for success.

Now, more important stats: the halfcourt. Their 107.1 offensive rating in the halfcourt is a 95th percentile mark while generating a 94th percentile mark of transition looks. These Dubs are also holding their opponents to an 87.5 rating in the halfcourt as well. Those are numbers you can build on in the playoffs.

Alright, those were a lot of numbers. Unless you are completely new to my work you’ve probably guessed what comes next: copious amounts of film. I watched all 319 plays with these five players on the floor so we could learn what led to this early success and discern what is sustainable versus what can be exploited.

Stop me if you’ve heard this before: Steph makes a Warriors lineup entirely possible. Unsurprisingly, even at 36 years old, he is the bellwether of the Dubs. So for the sake of this article, I’ll work in a rough descending order of who dictates the success of this lineup. We’ll start with none other than Wardell himself.

Steph

The first 50 games of the season felt like watching a prolonged crucifixion on offense. Steph was sent out there every night to die for the sins of the organization, doomed to give his life just to eke out a passable team offense. With Jimmy Butler on the floor, that burden has been eased considerably, and the results show. He’s gotten his energy back and is attacking switches and isolations with renewed vigor.

Reducing the amount of players you can help off has given Steph and Draymond newfound space to work their two-man game. When the other three are a clear threat to score, they might be frozen on the right alignments and allow a 2v2 to unfold.

Still, Curry is going to see his fair share of double teams. The four-man unit around him has handled these chances well. A mix of good decision-making and various scoring tools has led to some great looks.

He’s the worst defender on the floor in this lineup. However, he can still funnel well, a tactic this lineup will utilize even more than normal Warriors lineups. The problem is that the 5-man unit is lacking in size before you even get to Curry, who is a couple of inches shorter than his compatriots. That problem shows up more in help defense and rebounding than at the point of attack.

All things have balance. Steph does more for the other four to get them good looks; it’s only appropriate that they have his back on the uglier end of the floor.

Jimmy

The Jimmy Butler acquisition opened up one of the deadliest actions this team can run. Split actions are common with many combinations of perimeter players and bigs, and Steph/Jimmy split cuts were expected to be a source of excitement. So far, the results have been exceptional for Jimmy, allowing him to get into the paint freely by using Steph’s gravity.

The reverse side of that is Jimmy’s driving opening up looks for everyone else. Driving and kicking or finding cutters is a great way to jumpstart the motion offense, and he seems to get it immediately.

This lineup has also buoyed the best parts of Jimmy’s game: driving and posting up. If you take away the ability to help early on his drives or properly double-team his post-ups, he will have clean looks in the paint all night and plenty of trips to the free throw line.

It strikes a good balance so far that takes advantage of Jimmy’s offensive instincts, size, and floor mapping. Accentuating his best scoring methods without over-exerting him bodes well for this team. It also enables him to make a major impact on the defensive end of the floor.

Jimmy’s skill as a rotator and rebounder with his size and instincts is impressive. He can make plays all over the floor while trusting the rotations behind him and the funneling skills in front of him. There have been moments where he feels hesitant at times, but he’s learning to get in the flow with 4 guys who have been playing together for a season and a half. It’ll come in time. For now, I’ll settle for some strong double teams and boards while he learns to play off the following defensive force.

Draymond

Whew. Nobody has been more invigorated by the Butler acquisition than Draymond Green.

We saw it early on how he’s been thriving again on offense working a two-man game with Steph and making plays when he’s double-teamed. It feels like the Dray of old. Sprinkle in some open threes and transition looks and suddenly he’s becoming a productive offensive player again.

The real standout here is how his defense has been transformed in this lineup. The trust he has in his rotations behind him and the technically sound containment in front of him looses him like the Tasmanian Devil on opponents. Here’s just a snatch of his elite rotation and help defense with this group:

No real change in his game to be noted in this lineup. It just feels like the Dubs are turning a giant dial that says “Draymond Green” to the max and looking at the audience for approval.

Podz

Now is when things get interesting. The star trio coalescing and playing well is a pleasant development but not necessarily a surprising one. A guy who’s been struggling all year turning into a high-level starter seemingly overnight is eye-opening. What has impressed me the most is how Podz has begun to capitalize on his defensive potential with this unit, making a huge impact with his funneling skills first and foremost.

Funneling your man out of the middle and into the help of Draymond Green, Jimmy Butler, and Moses Moody is a great formula to stay in the lineup defensively. Some outright stops or trail blocks will be welcome. He’s made an impact with his double teams too, blowing up actions left and right while maintaining good hands off the ball to generate steals. But the most important thing he brings to this lineup is the rebounding prowess from the guard spot.

Draymond, Moses, and Jimmy will throw around some hard boxouts, enabling Podz and Steph to come in and clean up the glass. They’re rebounding very well as a unit (more on this later) and Podz is a key cog in that equation. His size and nose for the ball have always produced strong rebounding numbers across several levels of basketball, and it’s much needed to make this unit work. If you want to read more about Podz’s talents as a rebounder, I wrote about it last year.

Offensively, he’s doing an excellent job at filling gaps. He’s the third most versatile scorer in this lineup behind Steph and Jimmy but has a lessened burden to contribute. That gives him the range to focus on his defense while finding ways to contribute as a shooter, closeout attacker, cutter, screener, and transition weapon.

That last part is the most important to me: transition. This lineup has managed to create a 98th percentile transition offense frequency, yet their 1.00 PPP mark in the open floor is abhorrent, to say the least. They desperately need someone to trigger good looks for others and find spots to pick for their shot. Podz’s passing and finishing talents mixed with youthful energy and his halfcourt defensive positions bode well for transition success.

I’ll be keeping a very close eye on Podz in these lineups going forward. The quality of his play might be the most important tipping point given his past inconsistencies and specific skillset. Here’s hoping he continues to thrive with these four.

Moses

It speaks a lot to the talent and cohesion of this lineup that Moses is arguably the fifth starter here, yet remains very impactful. The Dubs are now up to 11-0 this year when Moses starts a game and 21-27 otherwise. That’s not just happenstance.

Within this lineup, Moses is the most accomplished perimeter defender. His length and footwork combo, with some solid funneling instincts, makes him outstanding against most matchups. Podz and Steph can funnel well but are unlikely to stop a drive outright. Moody can do that or make a drive so dire that the driver is extremely vulnerable to help.

His size also leads to different usages when off the ball. He’s more than capable as a low man rotating or boxing out for rebounds and crashes well after shots go up. The athleticism makes him a defensive threat in transition as well, a large reason why this lineup has successfully closed down transition chances at a high rate.

I’ve especially liked seeing his synergy with the help in these lineups; defending in tandem with Draymond or Jimmy has produced wonderful results.

When you are taking on tough assignments, 75% of your floormates being experienced veterans helps a lot with your trust and confidence. This lineup unlocks a level of defensive intensity he has not discovered before.

On the offensive end of the floor, he holds similar responsibilities to Podziemski with slightly less handling. Shoot when open, crash the glass, screen, cut, and get to work in transition. Per usual he’s done a great job at all aspects of his role.

Moody has always been great at playing within himself offensively. As the 4th/5th scoring option in this lineup, he won’t take chances away from others by forcing things and capitalizes well on the chances given to him. If he can mix in some quality drives and glass crashes, he can be more than a 3-and-D player, which is all they need him to be in the first place.

Team Play and Strategy

As previously mentioned, funneling is a fundamental Warriors tactic. Double teams and icing the pick-and-roll play into that equation as well. They’re comfortable in rotation as a defense so forcing the issue is a benefit. It’s led to some wonderful moments of team defensive play in the halfcourt.

The team transition scoring has been tough, but transition chances are a goal with their 94th percentile transition frequency. The poor results have largely come from hesitancy as this less-than-speedy lineup is not pushing things hard. Yet there have been some moments of great team play in transition that I’ve enjoyed greatly.

What’s more absurd is that despite the lowly offensive rating in transition, this lineup manages to boast a +15.8 net rating in transition so far due to a wild 84.2 DRTG in the open court. There have been moments of brilliance, largely by Draymond Green. However, this looks like a bubble ready to pop. They’re allowing a high frequency of transition looks off live rebounds and have been burned by simply being too tired, not athletic enough, or not attentive enough.

This is certainly a playoff-intensity sort of lineup, and the concern is lessened come April but not gone entirely. They’ll need to continue limiting turnovers and picking offensive rebound opportunities well to limit the transition chances. Draymond can paper over a lot defensively in the open floor but he cannot do everything. Finding a way to keep chances low and relatively covered will be paramount for their success.

A last strategy point that may prove a weakness is the size. As previously mentioned, they have nobody taller than 6’7″ in this lineup, and it brings a host of weaknesses. They’ve been susceptible to offensive rebounds and post-up chances by the league’s taller players.

They need to be crisp with their double teams and help to deter these bigs on the block and rebound well as a team to maintain some control. They can control the floor horizontally with their ability to fly around and pack the paint, but you can only control so much vertically. The tallest trees soak up the most sun at the end of the day. Luckily, there have been lots of great team rebounding moments with this lineup:

On the whole, this lineup is extremely good despite these flaws and has ways to control these flaws. There’s a lot of season left to play but I’m keeping my eye on this grouping. Last night’s game against Orlando was a wake-up call of sorts, and the first time this lineup hasn’t closed a close game since the trade deadline. When teams throw two bigs at them and begin controlling the paint, countermeasures have to be deployed. Will it be the same when they come up against Oklahoma City’s twin towers, or Nikola Jokic and Aaron Gordon?

Flaws will be managed in the long run. They may have unlocked a lineup that could carry them up the Western Conference standings and put the fear of God into a team in round one. From there, who knows how high it could take them?

The post Warriors Unlock New Deadly Lineup? appeared first on Swish Theory.

For those new to the series you’ll want to read the first iteration of this year’s check-ins, plus the intro articles for the individual players that interest you. We’ve got plenty of development stories to discuss here so I’ll skip the appetizer and dive into the main course here.

Stars in the Making

These are the players on my list I consider to be strong bets for future stardom (a top 3 player on a good team-ish).

Bilal Coulibaly

In my initial write-up on Bilal this past November, I covered his burgeoning defensive prowess and offensive talents. The defensive end has been largely positive, with a few areas to clean up. First and foremost is the screen navigation which still trends more negative than positive. There have been some positive flashes I’ve enjoyed but short of play tracking each screen action, it still feels the same. Looking at the flashes is fun though.

Another area for improvement is the off-ball defense. He’s still losing too many cutters and is a tick late on his rotations, but they have been explosive. One exciting development is that Bilal has been unleashed as a transition defender in the past weeks, using his length and athleticism to eviscerate his opponents in the open floor. I’ll be excited to see more of that as the season progresses. For now, enjoy some of his more explosive rotational highlights from the past month.

Defensive consistency is still what we’re looking for here. What’s still true is that going at Bilal on defense is a bad, bad, BAD idea. He’s jumped so high defensively at such a young age. Now it’s a matter of smoothing the edges.

On the offensive side of things, the on-ball creation is dipping back towards the efficiency we saw last year. On November 15th he was cashing in 51% of his self-created looks; that has fallen to 38%. Granted, it’s still an uptick from the 31% mark in his rookie year, and the usage rate has stayed consistent. Yet the undeniably suffocating presence of an apathetic Kyle Kuzma has left its mark.

Much of this can be explained by his rim-finishing numbers smoothing out as well. He was an astronomical 28/31 at the rim when the first article was written, and 52/83 since (63%). That still evens out to a 70% mark that is well above the rookie numbers and a 77th percentile mark for a wing.

He was also looking solid from three in that first month, shooting 36% on 3.0 attempts per game; that has dipped to 25% on 4.1 attempts per game over these past 27 games. It looks on the tape as though he’s lost his mechanics a bit with shots coming out flat more often than you’d like, but the confidence is still there. The shift in usage also explains this. After taking 54% of his threes from the corners last year, he’s down to just 21%. Since he’s shooting roughly 25% on above-the-break threes across the past two seasons, lumps in efficiency are expected.

If he figures it out this year, great! If he doesn’t, every three he takes brings them closer to Cooper Flagg. As I said before, their development plan is to throw him into the fire, and there were bound to be some burns.

In addition to his transition prowess, Bilal is finding other ways to contribute off the ball as a cutter and offensive rebounder. He’s 13/17 shooting on his cuts, a notable tick up from his 19/30 mark last year. This is especially impressive considering his usage shift to be further above the break, where the backdoor cuts are fewer and further between.

So far, he’s managed to increase his offensive rebounding rate by a whole percentage point despite the increase in on-ball usage and spending more time above the break when off the ball. Let’s all take a second to appreciate the offensive rebounding highlights.

Given the context of how Washington uses Bilal, some holes are to be expected. The Basketball Index rates Coulibaly sixth amongst all players in two-way usage rate, alongside players such as Dyson Daniels, Andrew Wiggins, Dejounte Murray, and Jaylen Brown. And speaking of Dyson…

Dyson Daniels

Well, well, well.

In our last edition, I asked one question about Dyson’s defense: can he keep this insane workload and production up? The answer is a resounding yes.

Dyson is posting the highest steal rate in the entire league at 4.23%, a mark that hasn’t been reached since Ron Artest did so in 2002. His block rate is sixth amongst all qualifying guards. This massive increase in activity somehow comes with a lower foul rate than he posted last year. On top of this, he is posting the highest matchup difficulty grade according to the Basketball Index. Barring injury, this man will be on an All-Defensive team this year and a fixture for many years to come.

The offensive side of the ball is a different yet encouraging story. His play-initiating rate is holding steady at around 20%, and his overall usage rate has stayed up at 17.5%. This represents a sharp increase from his past season with New Orleans and a move toward the middle of the pack among guards. What’s interesting is that his efficiency numbers have remained steady despite this increased responsibility. It seems spending the majority of your minutes alongside Trae Young has its benefits.

The rim finishing has improved over this recent stretch, and though Dyson hesitates to use his left hand when he should, the results have worked out on the whole. Even when it goes in, you can see the moments where he favors his right or relies on his floater.

The righty finishing is very good, and the floater is deadly as usual, but I want to see less aversion to going left from now on. I will be watching very closely to see how this shakes out.

Not only is the overall finishing up, but the threes are slightly up from the corners. His above-the-break percentage remains around 30% as it has been for his whole career, and though he’s taking the lowest share of threes of his nascent career, a 42% mark is nothing to sneeze at. Let’s hope that continues.

Dyson continues to find ways to fill gaps outside of shooting threes and running second-side actions. He cuts well, thrives in transition, and owns the fourth-highest offensive rebounding rate amongst qualified guards. I’ll be keeping an eye on the shooting numbers and ensure the other off-ball facets stay above water, but for now, I dare say Dyson Daniels is a useful offensive player.

Star Flashes, Needs Work

Clear starter-type players with star outcomes and tools.

Tre Mann

We now come to the first of the injuries.

At the time of our first check-in, Mann had missed 9 straight games with disc irritation. We’re now up to 24 consecutive absences without a return in sight. Safe to say it’s hard to develop much as a player when you’re utterly sidelined.

Despite Charlotte’s dismal record, there is plenty of reason for Mann and the Hornets brass to see a return to the court before the season is out. He’s a restricted free agent at year’s end and both sides will seek clarity on his value. Hopefully, by the next check-in, Mann will return to the floor and continue to tell his story.

Toumani Camara

A new name revealed!

Two weeks ago, I wrote about Camara’s emergence as a defensive force in Portland, one who has begun to find himself offensively. Since he’s only played in 7 games since I last wrote about him, there isn’t much sense in a further update, so we will wait on TC until next time.

Strong Rotation Piece

Rotation players with limited star outcomes, starting caliber.

Goga Bitadze

In our first edition, I wrote about Goga benefiting from the rash of frontcourt injuries in Orlando. It solidified him as a starting lineup fixture when healthy. Now Goga finds himself on the injury report, and though it may be temporary, it remains to be seen how things will shake out when Orlando is back at full health.

It’s a shame really as Goga’s usage pattern has been fascinating. He’s seen a more than 25% increase in on-ball usage this year compared to last, and his handoff game has been the crux of the offense at times with their creators out. The blend of screening prowess, passing skill, and finishing brought steady production to an Orlando team dying for offense.

Even with the increased usage, Goga is managing the best eFG% of his career. With the three-point game all but gone, he’s finishing in the paint and from the free-throw line at a high enough rate to have some serious offensive contribution. Put in an 81st percentile offensive rebounding rate and it makes sense that Goga’s offensive EPM mark is at a career high +0.8, a 78th percentile mark in the league.

On the defensive end, I had one criticism for an already elite defensive center: can the rebounding match everything else? The answer has been a resounding yes as his defensive rebounding rate has climbed to a robust 23.7%. Not only is that a career-high mark, it places him solidly in the middle of the pack for starting centers. Wrap this package up, and you have a truly elite role player. His +11.8 on-off mark places him eleventh in the entire league among qualified players, and his total EPM mark is in the top 30 of all players this season.

The only question is how Goga and the Magic adjust to a healthy lineup. Paolo Banchero, Franz Wagner, and Wendell Carter Jr. are all back and ready to roll. Mo Wagner being lost for the season all but assures Goga of playing time upon his return, but will he start again? Will head coach Jamahl Mosley use him as a steadying bench presence? These questions asked by Swish Theory’s own Ryan Kaminski may provide some insight. For now, we have to wait and see.

Aaron Nesmith

At long last, we have a happy return.

Nesmith returns after missing 36 games, a whole season half gone. He’s working slowly back into the rotation and early returns are promising. However, it’s hard to say that much has been noticeably different since his return. Yet one thing remains constant.

He’s still doing plenty of this, at all times:

We’ll check in again on Aaron once he has more games under his belt this season.

Sam Hauser

Well, not all of the development stories can be positive.

Hauser is still shooting the cover off the ball, at 40% on the 5 threes a game he’s taken since our last check-in. He sprinkles in some closeout attacks and the rare drive to the basket. He’s still a quality shooting specialist on the offensive end, but it’s the other end that is beginning to concern me.

Early in the season, there were some promising flashes on defense. Now it’s a lot of easy blow-bys when matched up on the ball, and more concerningly the lapses off the ball.

The defensive struggles have turned this season into an outright regression for Hauser. The shooting keeps him afloat as a useful role player, but the defensive act needs to be cleaned up for there to be any real development here. I’ll be on the lookout for a better effort on that end while hoping he can find other ways to contribute offensively. For now, he’s just a fine cog in the Boston machine.

******* ********** (Name Omitted)

Here’s our first omitted name, to be written about at a later date. We’ll circle back on him once he has more games under his belt.

Nickeil Alexander-Walker

In our last edition, we caught NAW on a lethal shooting streak. Unfortunately, the rim finishing has dipped from 82% to a rather pedestrian 64% mark, but thankfully his three-point shooting has stayed at elite levels. He’s still at 41% from beyond the arc, a career-high figure, but most important is the volume split. Last year NAW took just under 50% of his triples above the break; that has risen to 63% in the current season. That usage shift comes with career-high numbers from the corners (46%) and above the break (39%).

The majority of Alexander-Walker’s offense comes from his catch-and-shoot looks and closeout attacks, where he boasts a very nice pull-up midrange game. Run him off the line and he responds with some smooth pull-ups. Average rim finishing is okay since that’s largely outside his offensive scope. He only needs a couple of bankable skills at the moment to justify his presence on the court given the elite-level defense.

My main concern at the moment is ball security. Despite the shift from a handling guard in New Orleans to an off ball wing in Utah/Minnesota, this is the first season where NAW has an assist/turnover percentage ratio under 1.0. 15% of his on-ball possessions have ended in a giveaway, an 11th percentile mark in the league. Of all rotation wings in the league, only Brandon Ingram, Amen and Ausar Thompson have worse turnover marks. Many are also of an unforgivable variety.

Misplaced passes, putting himself into bad pickup spots, and loose handles. I like that NAW tries to gin up offense a bit and use his guard skills but too often it feels like he’s playing outside himself. He’s a good connective guy that keeps the offense flowing but stirring the drink is an issue. But the absence of Karl-Anthony Towns and the decline of Mike Conley has created more pressure on all Timberwolves to create offense, so it’s possible coach Chris Finch is willing to live with the ups and downs.

Defensively it’s much of the same. He’s slithering around screens, blowing up ball screen actions, and containing with the best of them on the perimeter. There are still some off-ball lapses, but by and large, he’s an elite perimeter guy. I’m hoping for a bit more stock creation and less off-ball mistakes, but we are on a very strong trajectory here. The main thing to look for is how he finds himself again offensively. Last year’s version of NAW was an 87th percentile EPM player; that has dipped to 62nd percentile. As he looks to get paid in a contract year, he will need to close strong.

****** ********* (Name Omitted)

Another name left out, the next one on our writing list, as he has played himself into an important rotation role for a contender. Keep your eyes peeled.

Rotation Flashes, Needs Work

Players who have shown strong contributions but need to build more consistency.

Peyton Watson

During our last edition, Watson was fresh off a stint in the starting lineup instead of the injured Aaron Gordon. His cutting was improving, the defense looked more consistent, and he put together an admirable stint as a starter. The main question was: in the return to Denver’s highly questionable bench unit, could he remain a positive contributor?

After 25 games returned to the bench, the answer appears to be a resounding yes. Denver is 17-8 since his return to the second unit, and winning his minutes; they’re a +3.0 with him on the floor in this stint as opposed to the -4.3 rating before his starter turn.

The cutting has stayed at a high level, a sign of more engagement and consistency on his part. I worried about a dip as his minutes with Nikola Jokic decreased but he has remained productive without the ball in his hands.

It’ll need to sustain to make him a viable half-court offensive threat. He remains a middling offensive rebounder and below-average shooter, though the 34% mark on the season is a nice tick up from 30% last year. The screening is a nice bonus and remains effective, but he has a ways to go before being an even average halfcourt contributor.

Another point of concern is the lack of development in transition. Once again, Watson finds his share of looks in transition like few others; his 34% shot share in transition is a 98th percentile mark in the league. His 1.02 PPP mark is only a hair above last year’s and a well below-average efficiency mark. Poor decision-making and awareness contribute heavily as Watson often takes ill-advised shots, misses his open teammates, or passes poorly in tight decision-making windows. His transition looks are littered with possessions like these:

Minimal improvement in the half-court and open floor beats no improvement or outright regression. I’m just hoping to see him develop quicker. The clock is ticking when improvement still finds you as a 28th-percentile offensive EPM player.

On the defensive end, there’s been a stronger consistency in this recent bench stretch. He comes in, makes impact rotations, contains big wings, and checks out. In the past few games, his minutes have become more focused and it’s leading to more consistent defensive effort. Though he still misses some chances in rotation by being late or out of rhythm, the impact rotations are something to marvel at recently.

In addition to increased awareness as a rotator and rebounder, I want to see Watson do better when matching up with guards. His footwork can be disorganized and he often leaves himself unprepared to deal with speed. He does a fine job on the bigger and stronger wings and is tough to mismatch as a big but more switchability would be welcome on the perimeter.

Peyton finds himself at an interesting developmental crossroads. He’s a pretty average rotation piece at this point and the recent stretches have shown measurable growth on tape and in the stats. Yet it’s year three, he’s extension eligible this offseason, and Denver is going to have to make hard decisions to maximize Jokic’s prime and satisfy ownership’s budgetary problems.

The limitations are clear. He’s not going to be handling the ball, likely won’t shoot at a high level, and has a ways to go with general processing speed on both ends of the floor. Does Denver want to sign up for more of the Watson experience going forward? This end stretch of the season will go a long way towards influencing that decision. I will be tuned in.

Marcus Sasser

Man, talk about ups and downs.

Sasser went from a DNP fixture to a rotation piece in the early going, then back to a spot role after Ausar Thompson’s recovery, then back into the lineup nightly after Jaden Ivey broke his leg. Staying ready is admirable, and Sass is still giving some solid minutes, but the scorching hot shooting has worn off a bit after his early start.

Across his first 22 games of inconsistent play time, Marcus’ 53/40/100 shooting splits were hard to top. Since re-entering the rotation in Ivey’s absence, that has dipped down to a 39/34/86 mark in 13 games. Thems the breaks when you can’t consistently break the paint. It’s also reflected in his on/off numbers; he was a -4 on the whole in that first stretch and -23 since. Those numbers go under a microscope when you’re fighting for a role.

The good news is that his shot profile has found a better balance. Despite an increase in total 3-point rate, Sasser has seen his rim rate go from 12% to 18%. Turning more midrange shots into rim looks is always a good thing. Efficiency is up across the board as well; 74% at the rim, 50% in the midrange, and 40% from three in non-garbage minutes is nothing to sneeze at. I’ve liked the process on tape and he wins in sustainable ways.

The interesting thing about Sasser’s offense is that this hyperefficient scoring almost has to keep up for him to provide value at this point. He’s not high usage and hasn’t been a great playmaker. At 6’2″, he doesn’t have utility as a screener or glass crasher and has narrow cutting windows. Being a capable above-the-break shooter (85% of his 3PA this year) is a boon, and he can manipulate ball screens well enough when given the opportunity, but it’s a tough fit.

The defense has been a strong positive this year. Detroit is comfortable throwing Sass at all kinds of guard matchups, and he handles them with aplomb. He favors a full-court press and wants to live in your jersey. His attitude remains infectious and impactful on a young team hungry to put last year behind them with a playoff appearance.

Once again, the issue with Sasser’s defense returns to the size. He’s limited to guarding other guards since he does not possess the requisite strength or size to contain bigger wings. Though guarding other guards does take him out of many help positions inside the arc, it’s a non-starter to have him as a low man or tagger, and he’s not convincing with his digs or nail help. Goes without saying that he’s not making an impact on the glass.

He does add up to a 70th percentile D-EPM due to his on-ball proficiency, but the limited scope is difficult to capture in advanced stats. If you’re a one-trick pony on defense, you’d better be REALLY good at it to make a strong impact. He could reach Davion Mitchell/Fred VanVleet/Gary Payton II levels of small guard on-ball defense, but that’s where he needs to be. Anything less brings the rest of his utility into question.

Sasser is one of my most fascinating evaluations in this group. Small 3 and D guards are tough to fit on a roster, let alone a starting lineup, outside of specific circumstances. When you have Cade Cunningham, a forward-sized player who plays like a point on offense, it becomes more viable. Jaden Ivey seems likely to return before the year is out, so we will find out soon where Sasser sits in the hierarchy.

*** ****** (Name Omitted)

A new entrant! I was entranced with this guy’s play and we will get an intro on him before the season is out, so stay tuned.

Dominick Barlow

Dominick, I cannot quit you.

Last time we checked in, Dom had only played 11 minutes with the Hawks; he’s at 59 minutes now. There have even been a couple of rotation stints as the backup big as Father Time gains more ground on Clint Capela. Perhaps a trade could bring him more consistent minutes while Atlanta treads water in yet another mediocre set of Eastern Conference standings.

The G League numbers remain positive. When you’re nearly 7 feet tall and supremely athletic, 19/8 is nearly a prerequisite in a league where big athletes dominate. Checking this box is important, however, and the underlying offensive stats are promising. Per our G guru Emiliano Naiar, Barlow is shooting 76% in the restricted area, 54% in the paint, and 50% in the midrange. Throw in a 77% mark from the line and you have some very legitimate touch indicators. Pairing his size and athleticism with his floater touch and shooting chops could form a dangerous player.

Here’s hoping the Hawks find a way to get him more PT down the stretch. Atlanta getting fleeced in the Dejounte Murray deal by San Antonio made them look terrible, but plucking Barlow away for free could be a measure of revenge.

Wrapping Up

Fourteen developmental stories, fourteen different paths. Different draft pedigrees, levels of opportunity, and skill sets. I hope this series forms a helpful lens into what it’s like to be the unheralded part of the NBA: the role player. Some make star turns, some become important cogs, and some flame out entirely for reasons in and out of their control. Through this tape study, I’ve learned a lot about what drives development in this league. I’m glad you are all learning with me. Until next time.

The post Finding a Role Check-Ins: Halfway Down appeared first on Swish Theory.

Do-it-all wing with premium skill and athleticism

2. Dylan Harper, Rutgers

Bruising driving guard and potent scorer

3. Khaman Maluach, Duke

Towering young big with upside as a play finisher and rim protector

4. VJ Edgecombe, Baylor

Explosive scoring guard and lockdown defender

5. Kasparas Jakucionis, Illinois

Pull-up maestro with passing creativity

6. Collin Murray-Boyles, South Carolina

Elite playmaking forward on both sides of the ball

7. Ace Bailey, Rutgers

Versatile shooting wing with dynamic athleticism

8. Derik Queen, Maryland

Creative big-bodied drive threat who can pass

9. Tre Johnson, Texas

Versatile scoring, smooth three point shooting bucket-getter

10. Thomas Sorber, Georgetown

Tough freshman PF with strong feel for the game

11. Jeremiah Fears, Oklahoma

Young lead guard with dribble, pass, shoot upside

12. Noa Essengue, ULM

Sinewy rim attacker with budding ball skills and defensive versatility

13. Asa Newell, Georgia

Versatile defender, glass-crashing post-up threat developing three point shot

14. Jase Richardson, Michigan State

Three-level scoring guard with quick processing

15. Labaron Philon, Alabama

Gadgety, versatile, productive guard every team could use

16. Ben Saraf, ULM

Best passer in class as a game managing point guard and scorer

17. Noah Penda, Le Mans

Menacing wing defender and offensive connector

18. Miles Byrd, San Diego State

Stocks machine with shooting potential

19. Kon Knueppel, Duke

Three point sniper with shooting versatility and P&R playmaking chops

20. Johni Broome, Auburn

Versatile playmaking forward as one of best NCAA players in the country

21. Kam Jones, Marquette

Paint touch machine, three-level scorer who can pass

22. Nolan Traore, Saint-Quentin

Quick first step point guard who is a willing shooter and active defender

23. Rasheer Fleming, Saint Joseph’s

Big wing who can shoot with a 7’5” wingspan

24. Egor Demin, BYU

Elite passer with inconsistent play against top competition

25. Liam McNeeley, Connecticut

Three point threat who attacks closeouts looking to finish strong

26. Danny Wolf, Michigan

Unique ball-handling point center with quick processing skills

27. Adou Thiero, Arkansas

Physical slasher who creates events on defense

28. Darrion Williams, Texas Tech

Skilled upperclassman who can shoot and pass from the wing

29. Anthony Robinson II, Missouri

Point-of-attack demon with some ball skills

30. Boogie Fland, Arkansas

Game managing shooter and passer out for season

31. Hugo Gonzalez, Real Madrid

Toolsy high motor player with versatility

32. Ryan Kalkbrenner, Creighton

Big man upperclassman who dominates the paint on both ends

33. Flory Bidunga, Kansas

Undersized but hyper-athletic rangy big

34. Alex Karaban, Connecticut

Elite shooter and wing defender, national champion

35. Will Riley, Illinois

Under-developed young wing shooter and passer

36. Rocco Zikarsky, Brisbane

18-year-old with a chance to be best rim protector in class

37. Tahaad Pettiford, Auburn

Dribble-pass-shoot quick small guard

38. JT Toppin, Texas Tech

High motor, high producing rim attacker

39. Joshua Jefferson, Iowa State

Physical defender with some connector chops as a big wing

40. Ian Jackson, North Carolina

Pure scoring freshman who can catch fire like few others

41. Bennett Stirtz, Drake

Potentially underrated lead guard up-transfer from Division II

42. JoJo Tugler, Houston

+12 wingspan for this mobile rim protector

43. Nique Clifford, Colorado State

Fluid-moving upperclassman who does a little of everything

44. Chad Baker-Mazara, Auburn

Upperclassman utility wing with a smooth shot

45. Tomislav Ivisic, Illinois

Floor-spacing center and ball-mover

46. Carter Bryant, Arizona

Talented freshman wing providing a punch off the bench

47. KJ Lewis, Arizona

Aggressive defender with questions on offense

48. Dink Pate, Mexico City

18-year-old G Leaguer with a big body and flashes all over the court

49. Yaxel Lendeborg, UAB

Elbow/post hub with a well-rounded driving game and plus passing

50. Bogoljub Markovic, KK Mega

Astounding rebounder with some intriguing movement skills at 6’11”

51. Xaivian Lee, Princeton

Shifty guard who can table set and let it fly from deep

52. Chaz Lanier, Tennessee

High volume shooter who rarely makes mistakes at age 23

53. Eric Dixon, Villanova

Pure shooting 6’8” upperclassman, one of best players in NCAA

54. Javon Small, West Virginia

Highly productive lead guard essential to WVU

55. Walter Clayton Jr.

High volume three point shooter who can do some guard things

56. Drake Powell, North Carolina

Hyperactive freshman defender with shooting potential

57. Alex Condon, Florida

Sharp-passing sophomore big who can grease and offense and get stocks

58. RJ Luis, Saint John’s

Dynamic athlete scorer

59. Milan Momcilovic

Unblockable shot for this 6’8” 40% three point shooter

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BOOMSHAKALAKA!

Joshua Lewis makes the highlight poster dunk of the weekend

Postgame Interview with Joshua Lewis (Blake)

Great game out there. Crazy poster slam! What that feel like?

“Yessir! That felt great, I think that’s the best one I got so far in my career, so that felt really good to get a good one.”

What’s your mentality like entering games?

“Just be locked in. Bring energy. Help lead my team. Especially since we’re in a tough situation with our coach being out right now, so I definitely got to step up and be a big leader on the floor.”

What kind of skill development are you working in practice the most; what are you doing now and what do you hope to develop in the future?

“Just continue to get my handle better and get stronger, stay in the weight room; those are probably the two biggest things I’m working on. And just getting my shot more consistent, for sure”

Are there any players, former or current, that you study, that might inspire your game or model some of your skills after?

“Yeah, recently I’ve been watching a lot of Shai, I really like the way he moves on the court. But just any big guard that’s my size, handles the ball, you know those guys like Kevin Durant, Brandon Ingram, Paul George, Shai, all those type of players, I watch all of them for sure.”

Any recruitment updates? You thinking anywhere, eyeing anywhere?

“Yeah I’ve been talking to Iowa a lot, they’ve been on me a lot. I’ve been talking to Michigan some, Marquette some. I’ve been having some good recruitment, N.C. State some, Texas A&M, just to name a few.”

What’s going to lock it in for you?

“That gut feeling, that’s it. I feel like when you know, you know.”

The Teams

Oak Ridge
Duncanville
Blake
North Broward Prep
Pepperville
Southeastern Prep

The Standout Players

Jamier Jones
Kayden Edwards
Joe Philon
Beckham Black
Jalen Reece
Joshua Lewis
Jason Johnson
Cam Smith
Christopher “Deuce” Hunt
Chudier Dew yak
Ryan Baxley
Zyree Brown

Day 2 Game 3 – Oak Ridge vs. Duncanville

Kayden Edwards and Jamier Jones traded blows back and forth like they were in a heavyweight fight, each dropping 40+ points before the final bell!

In the marquee matchup of the weekend, Duncanville outlasted the host team, Oak Ridge, in double overtime late into Saturday night, winning 95-90.

Jamier Jones used his mobility, power, and touch inside to create a walking mismatch near the rim, recording a new career-high 41 PTS & 11 REB.

Kayden Edwards showed out as the highlight prospect of this event, dropping 45 PTS against Oak Ridge after a 30 PT outing the day before against Pepperidge.

Duncanville

#5 6’3” Guard Kayden Edwards – 45 PTS – 5 REB – 3 AST – 2 STL (14/23 FG – 4/10 3P – 13/14 FT)

Explosive quick first step burst. Soft touch finishing at the rim. Money pull-up jumper. Tough shot maker any spot on the court. Tight ball control. Defensive instincts, jumping passing lanes, timing up deflections. Great awareness when to use pump-fakes. Good feel playmaker. Draws fouls attacking the rack and threatening the pull-up.

Kayden Edwards stayed hot shooting all weekend. After a 30 PTS & 10 REB win over Blake the day before, Kayden lit up Oak Ridge for 45 PTS – 5 REB – 3 AST – STL, hitting tough bucket after bucket from every angle, drawing fouls and getting downhill with ease, converting 14/23 FG from the field, 4/10 3P from downtown, and 13/14 FT from the pinstripe.

Kayden’s tough shot making off the dribble and ability to burst to the rack with ease was on full display as his standout skills, making any shot from anywhere on the floor.

In the first half of the final game against Oak Ridge, Kayden Edwards got to the rim, hunted contact, and showed off shooting touch at every level: a pick six layup, quick burst to the rim drawing a foul, a strong take to the rim for a finger roll, a clean running FLOATA, a corner triple, a bump and finish at the basket, an AND1 putback in the paint, and a bailout putback middy.

The buckets didn’t slow down in the second half: Kayden drilled a pull-up three, splashed a catch-and-shoot triple, hit a defender with a killer crossover into a layup, made good team-first read extra passes, drew a foul on a pull-up jumper.

His instincts impressed on the defensive end, making a deflection to block a shot under the rim to stop a layup, and even stealing the tip off in an overtime period and getting a defender to leave his feet on a pump-fake.

#0 6’2” Point Guard Beckham Black – 8 PTS – 7 AST – 7 AST – 2 STL (2/5 3P)

Beckham Black, Kayden’s Duncanville backcourtmate and brother of the Orlando Magic’s Anthony Black, impressed with good two-way feel for the game, forcing deflections with defensive instincts, making good reads with the ball, and even pulling up for a handful of off-the-dribble three pointers with one falling through the net in clutch time of a double-overtime victory.

I asked Anthony Black after the game how he would describe his brother, Beckham, as a person off the court:

“Funny guy. Shoot, he’s a kid, so still growing up.

It’s cool to see him maturing, but, a good kid.

Loves basketball, loves to compete. Super proud of him.“

While his teammates filled up the box score, Beckham Black showed his incredible two-way feel for the game.

Looking to make the best decision for the team every time down. Hitting pull-up 3pt jump shots when needed. Active hands deflections timing up forced turnovers. Downhill driver finishing at the rim and looking for open shooters. Racking up assists finding open teammates. Running the offense creating drive and kicks, hockey assists, and potential assists moving the ball after creating advantages.

Black’s vision was on full display in the first half, making a drive-and-corner-kick 3pt assist, a hockey assist that led to a triple, team-first reads for extra passes, a potential assist to the top of the key out of a baselines out-of-bounds set, and a kickout off an offensive rebound to Kayden, even showing off the handles with a killer crossover into the finger roll for good measure.

In the second half, Beckham’s two-way feel for the game was made evident: A wraparound pass to a cutter, a swing pass 3pt assist to Kayden, a drive-and-kick 3pt assist to Deuce, a sick swing pass overhead, a lead pass to the roller in pick-and-roll.
Beckham hit a pair of big threes, one after forcing a steal and walking up to the 3pt line for a pull-up jumper, and another that tied the game late to send it to overtime.

#2 6’1” Guard Christopher “Deuce” Hunt – 23 PTS – 5 REB – 4 STL – 2 AST (8/14 FG – 5/6 3P)

Knockdown C&S 3pt shooter (at least 4 3PM). Active hands digs for steals without fouling. Lookahead passer.

Deuce Hunt brought a reliable scoring option for Duncanville throughout the weekend, posting 18 PTS – 7 REB – 4 AST – 3 3PM against Blake on Day 1 and balling out on both ends against Oak Ridge on Day 2, dropping 23 PTS – 5 REB – 4 STL.

Deuce showed shooting touch in the clutch, hitting two big free throws to go up by 4 points with 36 seconds left, drilling a catch-and-shoot triple late in overtime, and splashing triples throughout the game.

#4 6’7” Forward Cam Smith – 6 PTS – 2 AST – 4 BLK – 1 STL – 3 Deflections

Shot blocking rim-protection. Quick second jump. Great timing defensive instincts. Smooth stroke 3pt shooter. Grab-and-go handles to bring the ball up the floor. Long length used effectively. Active hands deflections. Good vision passer.

Putting a lid on the rim throughout, Cam Smith came up big on both ends, bringing real D&3 impact, racking up at least 4 blocks, 1 steal, and 3 deflections. Cam dominated one possession with defensive instincts, timing up a block at the rim and recovering with a quick second jump to block another shot right after. Later in the game he even blocked a 3pt shot, somehow extending to the shooter from the paint.

Cam is only credited with 6 PTS, but he stayed ready from behind the arc, knocking down one catch-and-shoot triple, and he made a good play at the rim in transition with a bump-and-finish AND1, scoring three the old fashioned way. Smith kept his head up, finding an open shooter on the drive and kick and an open cutter slicing down the middle of the paint.

#10 6’1 Guard Gary Jones – 6 PTS – 4 REB – 2 STL

#3 6’3” Guard Jirehn Mitchell – 5 PTS – 2 REB

#11 6’0” Guard Chris Gooden Jr. – 2 PTS

Jirehn Mitchell showed touch passing vision on a pass he caught and immediately swung while still in the air and got a stop contesting Jamier Jones by moving his feet and staying long and tall without fouling. In double overtime, Jirehn drew a foul rolling to the rim, while Chris Gooden Jr. made a big winning play taking a charge against Jalen Reece. Gary Jones made smart cuts and tough baskets underneath the rim.

Oak Ridge

#1 6’6″ Forward Jamier Jones – 41 PTS – 11 REB – 4 AST – 4 STL – 2 BLK (18/26 FG)

Tough shot making at the rim. Body control in the post. Controlled driver. Mobility. Agility. Dexerity. Strong and finesse finisher at the rim. Defensive instincts with effective length. Heads up connector passing. Draws fouls driving downhill and in the paint.

Oak Ridge’s Jamier Jones was a walking mismatch against Duncanville. Whether it was securing early post up positioning on the block, accelerating into drives from the perimeter, or timing up self-alley layups to himself, there was nothing Duncanville could do to stop him from putting the ball in the hoop, scoring a career-high 41 PTS on the night on 69% FG% and pulling down 11 REB to boot with a physical, athletic advantage able to reach a higher point than anyone else on the court.

Scoring in different ways, especially on the move, like in a stampede action already running off a screen before catching the pass on the drive to the rack. Pulling up for a tough contested middy. Grab-and-go coast-to-coast through the defense. Sweet drives into the paint with smooth finishes inside. Powering through mismatches with a big man size advantage. Good footwork down low with a strong move through contact for an AND1 finish in the paint. Power slam after power slam. Whether it was downhill off the dribble or early post-up positioning, Jamier Jones got to the rack with ease.

Jamier brought real defensive impact between guarding the ball at point of attack and forcing Beckham Black to pass the ball, to tools like anticipation and timing with the athleticism to force a pick six steal into a breakaway slam.

Flashed nice vision on a pass underneath the basket. Handled clutch time, drilling a free throw in the final minute of a close game. Drew fouls attacking the rack with an AND1 drive below the rim to cut the lead to two late in the contest. Converted a bump-and-finish layup through contact to extend a late lead.

#2 6’0″ Guard Jalen Reece – 16 PTS – 9 AST – 4 REB – 3 STL (3/7 3P)

Natural point guard. Pull-up jump shooter. Soft touch FLOATA finishing at the rim. Runs the offense, directs traffic. Finds and feeds mismatches. Post entry bullet passes and clean kickouts to open shooters. Effective flare handles.

Jalen Reece flashed creative vision and tight ball control, setting up teammates with post entry passes throughout, looking for his teammates with quick-trigger passes and highlight dimes, finishing with 16 PTS & 9 AST.

Sending a bullet overhand pass to open teammates and quick post entry passes all night, Jalen found Jamier Jones for highlight connections including one clutch no-look pass for a power slam in overtime.

Reece showed off the handles and touch with a mean crossover into a finger roll finish, spinning into a running FLOATA and splashing a catch-and-shoot triple, all in double overtime.

Jalen used active hands and good timing to create deflections, too.

#3 6’3” Guard Will Jackson – 11 PTS – 5 REB – 2 AST – 2 STL (3/5 3P)

Will knocked down a couple of three pointers with at least one coming off the dribble before hitting two clutch free throws late in the game. Brought good energy, took a charge on a hustle play, flew in for an offensive rebound in traffic.

#4 6’7” Wing Treyvon Maddox – 12 PTS – 8 REB – 3 AST – 2 BLK (3/5 3P)

Treyvon played with high motor and toughness. Active hands defense created a deflection and steal. Energy on the glass led to an offensive rebound where he drew foul shots on the putback attempt. Driving strong to the rack, drawing two free throws, and knocking one down to extend his team’s lead to three with 37 seconds left in overtime. On top of his energy, Maddox showed deep shooting range, drilling a contested pull-up three and a catch-and-shoot triple.

#5 6’7” Forward CeZanne Mosley – 10 PTS – 5 REB

CeZanne took advantage of his size mismatch down low, finishing strong in the paint, showing fundamental footwork on the spin moves in the post, drawing the AND1 foul out of a baselines out-of-bounds set. Nice vision on high-low passes.

Entering the weekend at home, Oak Ridge was coming off two losses against fellow Marquee Florida High School Basketball Programs, Montverde and IMG Academy.

Losing to Duncanville was the fourth loss in a row for Oak Ridge, as the host team was taken down by Pebblebrook on Day 1 of the weekend, where Jalen Reece posted a statline of 28 PTS – 8 AST – 5 STL – 3 3PM and Jamier Jones finished with 14 PTS – 6 REB – 3 AST – 4 STL.

Pebblebrook’s #14 6’3” Guard Jaylen Humphrey led the way with 17 PTS & 6 REB; #2 5’10” Guard Zyree Brown scored 13 PTS; #15 6’10” Center Fallou Dioum scored 12 PTS in the matchup.

Against Southeastern Prep, Dioum showed good timing on a block while #20 6’7” Wing Anthony Moon knocked down a catch-and-shoot triple.

Southeastern Prep’s #23 (no roster listed) impressed in the fourth quarter of a blowout win against Pebblebrook. Flying up and down the court, throwing down high-flying slams, popping out of the gym athletically on his dunks, rebounds, and contests.

In the opening game on the first day of Hoopfest Florida, Blake’s 6’7” Wing Joshua Lewis scored 32 PTS – 4 STL – 1 BLK and 6’8” Guard Joe Philon scored 16 PTS – 8 REB – 3 STL against Duncanville.

Against Blake, Beckham Black dropped 11 PTS – 3 REB -3 AST -3 STL, “Deuce” Hunt posted 18 PTS, and Kayden Edwards went off for 30 PTS – 4 REB – 3 AST – 2 STL.

In the second game on Day 2, Joshua Lewis and Joe Philon led Blake to a victory over North Broward Prep, while Chudier Diew yak stood out the most for his team in defeat.

Day 2 Game 2- North Broward Prep vs Blake – Standout Players

Blake

#1 6’9” Wing Joe Philon – 7 PTS – 7 REB – 4 AST – 3 BLK – 2 STL (4.0 A/TO)

Joe Philon impressed with all-around athleticism, versatility, and two-way feel. Philon showed incredible defensive instincts making a block off a quick second jump, swatting another shot from behind on a different possession, poking the ball away for a steal at one point, and trapping an opponent in the corner to help force a deflection.

Philon flashed soft touch by splashing a catch-and-shoot corner triple and convering a tough driving bump-and-finish lay-in.

One aspect Philon could improve was decision-making in transition, where he forced one or two errant passes at teammates’ feet that probably could have been easier to catch in stride rather than trying to perfectly time a bounce pass on the run.

#5 6’7” Guard/Wing Joshua Lewis – 13 PTS – 8 REB – 2 AST

Joshua Lewis made the SportsCenter Top-10 worthy highlight of the night: rising up, climbing the ladder, floating even higher after making contact, and throwing down the poster slam.

Lewis pulled up for at least three elbow middies, swished in a running FLOATA, drew the foul hunting contact beneath the rim, hit the skip pass to the corner, made a well-timed cut off ball for the rim finish, and pushed the pace when opportunity struck.

#20 6’6’ Forward Jason Johnson – 18 PTS (7/9 FG) – 7 REB – 2 AST – 3 STL – 2 BLK

Jason Johnson impressed in many facets of the game.

Jason knocked down a triple, made a huge block, showed swarming defense with a full court press steal leading to a breakaway bump-and-finish AND1 runner, all in the first half. In the second half, Johnson threw down monster dunks, made multiple soft touch finishes at the rim with one drawing a foul, and knocked down a jumper running off a screen.

#2 6’0” G Rashif Sinkfield – 2 PTS – 3 REB – 2 AST – 1 STL
Rashif flashed good feel with the drive-and-kick corner 3pt assist and crafty finishing at the rim.

#3 6’0” G Marion Ward – 11 PTS – 3 3PM – 2 AST – 2 STL
Marion showed of the jumper pulling up for a transition triple and splashing in a corner three, the defensive instincts forcing a turnover, and the finishing touch on a breakaway layup.

#4 5’11” G TJ Daniels – 8 PTS – 2 REB – 1 AST – 2 STL
TJ brought good effort trapping a defender in the corner to force a deflection, showed off nice vision with a no-look dumpoff pass, and flashed the 3pt shot with a catch-and-shoot corner three.

#12 6’3” G Jordan Mickens – 2 PTS – 5 AST – 2 STL
Jordan showed good vision with a solid drive-and-kick read for the corner 3pt assist.

North Broward Prep

#3 Guard Ryan Baxley – 9 PTS – 5 AST – 4 REB – 1 STL

Ryan Baxley flashed his soft touch at the rim with a floater, clean shooting range drilling catch-and-shoot threes in the corner and in transition, vision on a nice look-ahead pass, and good defensive instincts on closeouts and loose balls forcing a turnover.

#5 6’9” Wing Chudier Diew yak – 8 PTS – 3 REB – 1 BLK (2/4 3P)

Chudier Diew yak impressed with shooting touch at the rim and beyond the arc, drilling multiple catch-and-shoot threes and finishing an up-and-under cleanly.

Chudier brings a high motor on hustle plays, pulling down a big rebound in traffic, fighting for loose balls to force the turnover, and using the length effectively as a rim deterrent.

#10 6’5” Wing Luigi Borio – 6 PTS – 5 REB – 1 AST – 2 STL – 1 BLK
Luigi added a catch-and-shoot triple of his own and even timed up a nice block on a floater attempt.

#24 Big Francesco Borio – 4 PTS – 5 REB – 1 AST – 2 BLK – 1 STL
Francesco finished strong a the rim with a bump-and-finish through contact and a mean AND1 putback.

#30 Gavin Gorman 6 PTS (2/4 3P) – 2 REB – 1 AST
Gavin splashed a few catch-and-shoot triples

The post Scouting 2024 Hoopfest ft. Oak Ridge, Duncanville, Blake appeared first on Swish Theory.

In 1995, 12 wolves were transferred from Western Canada to two different acclimatization pens in the Yellowstone National Park in an effort to restore the wolf populations of Wyoming, Montana, and Idaho.

This was just the first of many steps that led to the current, healthy wolf populations and to a series of numerous direct and indirect consequences that unexpectedly even positively affected the landscape of the park itself.

The wolves started putting pressure on the elk population, diminishing their number, thus allowing the willows to start recolonizing the park. The increased availability of building materials allowed beavers to thrive and expand, and ultimately the countless engineering works of these rodents modified the course of the rivers. An incredible story that became emblematic of the crucial balancing role of apex predators within habitats.

This dynamic is called “trophic cascade” and is also identifiable in other lesser known situations like the reintroduction of the Tasmanian devil.

This video pretty much became a cornerstone of whatever ecology course of study.

What does this even have to do with basketball?

When I started watching some G League games and stats this season, something didn’t feel right to me. The “landscape” didn’t look the same as I remembered.

Thinking about the possible reasons that caused such a change in the teams’ rotations I remembered the recent introduction of a third two-way contract. This brought to my mind the Yellowstone wolves and I hypothesized that this could lead to a similar series of ripple effects.

Is it possible that a small change in a crucial part of the system caused a major change in the scenery? Is it possible that the addition of the third two-way caused a significant shift in the minute distributions?

No Country For Rookies

What first struck me as I approached this G League season was the apparent scarcity of rookies playing prominent roles.

When I try to decide which game to watch I look up box scores on the G League site, and I’m generally subject to the “New Shiny Toy Syndrome,” preferring to watch games where a bunch of rookies play a relevant role. I found it much more difficult in the first part of the 2024-25 season, and I often ended up watching the same few teams.

Trying to clarify the situation, the first thing I did was check the stats on the beloved and despised G League site (clear room for improvement for a more enjoyable and easily accessible product, as I pointed out in another article) which confirmed my first impression.

After putting everything down on a spreadsheet, I found that the share of rookie minutes among the top 100 players dropped from 34% during the 2023-24 Showcase Tournament to 24% in the 2024-25 Tip-off Tournament. This is certainly a significant difference (it was even larger in the first months of the season, around -13/-14%) that deserves attention and further analysis.

Even just looking up box scores it is evident that some teams generally didn’t even start a rookie. For example, this was the case with the College Park Skyhawks (they had in Djurisic their rookie star, and he was still dealing with a foot injury, to be honest), Long Island Nets, Windy City Bulls, and Capital City Go-Go, which had only 83 minutes total played by rookies over the whole tournament.

The Osceola Magic (recently rebranded after the legendary chief of the Seminole) deserve a special note for the uniqueness of their case: no rookie suited up for them during the Tip-off Tournament, and they had an average age of 25.8 years.

The complete Osceola Magic roster for the Tip-Off Tournament

Could the introduction of the third two-way be the trigger of a similar change in the minutes’ distribution?

Good things come in threes

The introduction of two-way contracts in 2017 was a game changer for the empowerment of the G League. Those represented a new frontier of player development and became a tangible connection between two almost separate “habitats.”

In a matter of few seasons, the abundance of talent on the margins of the league made clear the insufficiency of just two two-way spots. Therefore, following the new Collective Bargain Agreement, the NBA introduced the possibility of signing a third player with a two-way contract starting with the 2023-24 season.

Examining how the two-way distribution changed before and after this new introduction is interesting. Obviously, the two-way contracts aren’t set in stone and things can change throughout the year, but as of today, thirty-three rookies signed a two-way contract for the 2024-25 season. During the 2022-23 season, the last before the introduction of the third two-way, 30 two-way players out of 60 available spots were occupied by rookies.

While the raw number of rookies obviously increased, the overall percentage dropped by 13%. We could suppose that the third two-way allowed the teams to approach this matter with a more developmental view, stimulating them to work on fringe players for more seasons. This means more two-way contracts are allocated to players in their second or third season.

At the time of the last CBA negotiations, the goal of the league itself was to give teams the tools to develop players with fewer than four years of experience playing part-time in the G League and in the NBA.

Along with this comes a series of considerations. There are some ifs and buts, but a two-way contract can be worth up to $578,577 (50% of the regular NBA minimum). More spots mean more potentially life-changing money for fringe players, which means more good G League players have a great reason to stay around longer, taking their chance in the minor league without signing abroad. This kind of enrichment and improvement of salary conditions for a part of the players leads to more competitiveness and to a higher level of the sport.

As an example, one of the players signed with a two-way contract most recently, Daeqwon Plowden, who is 26 and is in his third G League season, probably wouldn’t be on a two-way contract at this point of his career without the introduction of the third spot.

While a similar dynamic is clearly beneficial for the league in a vacuum and potentially more propaedeutic to NBA success, it could lead to an environment initially less friendly for rookies and newcomers.

Just a bad harvest?

While my initial hypothesis is supported by some statistical evidences as we saw, it’s probably too early to have a definitive answer for the questions posed in the introduction.

There could actually be a simpler reason that caused a similar shift in the minutes’ distribution: the level of the current rookie class.

There’s talent in every rookie class, and this year’s isn’t an exception, but it looks less rich than others that preceded it. Already during the scouting process, there were some doubts, especially about the absence of top-tier prospects, and the NBA Rookie of the Year race is confirming it so far.

Even simply looking up the playing time in the NBA, we can notice the absence of rookies playing 30 or more minutes and even how there are few playing more than 20 minutes per game. Along with it comes a general impression of a class that is struggling to shine in the league. And while this isn’t a real demonstration of a bad class, it certainly is a symptom of a weird one that is leading to an equally weird race for Rookie Of the Year with no real favorite.

The lack of rookies’ minutes in G League could be just a reflection of an overall rookie class that’s also not particularly strong or deep.

Equilibrium

In the case the league is indeed experiencing the described dynamic, this however could not last forever.

When apex predators recolonize a certain territory after an extended period of absence, the population of their main prey can face a drastic decrease because the animals don’t have the needed defensive strategies anymore and don’t know how to evade predation attempts. The casual observer can mistake it for a local extinction, but it’s just a transitory fluctuation within the normal predator-prey interactions.

An example of a model that simulates the interaction between a population of predators and preys (rights reserved to Arizona State University)

Even if there’s an apparent shift in rookie minutes and two-way allocations, this could represent a similar oscillation that the system will re-balance in the near future. It’ll be interesting to keep track of its evolution going forward.

As you probably understood reading this article, it’s very difficult to analyze and define such a volatile and ever-evolving league like the G League (just consider the league reached the ever-chased 30 teams with NBA affiliation only this season, for example) but, at the end of the day, as I said in a DM to Matt Powers when I started thinking about this article, I don’t have the perfect answer for this question, but guessing is the fun part.

The post The Changing Landscape appeared first on Swish Theory.

That being said, not much of this tank’s return has shown. Shaedon Sharpe was the first major draft pick of this new era, and though he’s flashed potential, his injury concerns and limitations bring up questions. Scoot Henderson was supposed to be the franchise’s cornerstone but faces an uphill battle to be a productive player in the league, let alone live up to his potential. Donovan Clingan was a great prospect but hardly projected to be a centerpiece.

In the spirit of piling on, the non-draft picks haven’t panned out either. Anfernee Simons is at least staying healthy but has regressed somewhat. Jerami Grant, the last holdout of the Dame era besides Simons and Sharpe, has failed to generate enough trade interest to be moved. The same can be said for DeAndre Ayton. Grant is 30, Ayton is 26, and Simons is 25. Despite that, it’s hard to feel good about any of them as players who can be around for a future successful iteration of the Blazers.

It’s not all dire. The Deni Avdija acquisition was a shrewd move that should pan out in the long run. Robert Williams III has managed to recapture some of his value and could fetch them something decent in a trade. But what excites me most about Portland’s rebuild is that the third player they acquired in the 2023 draft has been the best of the trio.

Enter Toumani Camara.

More than used to being an afterthought in his basketball career, Camara was a footnote in the gargantuan Damian Lillard-Jrue Holiday-Ayton-Jusuf Nurkic deal. Portland decision-makers coveted the three first-round picks and the cadre of tradeable veterans they got from the teardown, not the four-year college player taken with the 52nd overall pick. Yet he may be the best thing they got out of the deal.

Let me show you why.

Offensive Overview

For those of you following this series, it’s hardly surprising I have found yet another defense-first wing searching for an offensive role. Peyton Watson, Dyson Daniels, Aaron Nesmith, Bilal Coulibaly, and Nickeil Alexander-Walker have all featured thus far. Yet all of them save Watson had some sort of established offensive identity. Watson has yet to find any. So I wanted to focus on a player finding an interesting way of contributing offensively. It starts with the most boring off-ball skill.

Shooting

Camara is primarily stationed as a corner shooter in Portland’s base offense, taking nearly half of his perimeter looks from there. Their general lack of shooting as a team forces him to lift above the break more often but that’s been fine up to a certain point. Camara is hitting 36% of his above-the-break looks, a hair above his 34% mark from the corners, and looks confident.

Portland has real spacing issues to work out as a team and I don’t see Camara as the long-term spacing outlet. But for his role as a big wing playing off primary creators, he’s doing a fine job. The increase in three-point volume from last year to this year has been promising and I hope it continues as coach Chauncey Billups grooms him for a role as a fifth offensive option in the long run.

Finishing Questions

Camara may be passable from the perimeter, but it is considerably more problematic in the restricted area. His 59% mark at the rim is a 30th percentile mark for wings, and the 32% mark in the short midrange is a tough 27th percentile mark. It’s not for a lack of trying on his part. Camara generally resides in the upper quartile of wings on rim FGA percentage in addition to roughly half of his rim attempts being self-created. Typically, his finishes on the drive look like this:

I’d be remiss if I didn’t show off some of the good. Sometimes it looks very good and makes you excited.

Mostly what we have here isn’t a confidence problem; Camara isn’t afraid to go at anyone, finish with either hand, or try audacious looks. What we mostly have here is a decision-making problem. Sometimes it’s not about how you finish, but when you choose to. This shows up more when we look at his playmaking off the drive. Again, some of it does look good!

But the bad patterns are there in spades. Running right into charges, jumping in the air without a plan, being early or late to passing windows, and failing to recognize help points. There’s a reason his turnover percentage is around 15% for the second straight year, despite single-digit assist rates and a usage rate in the low teens.

What’s important to me is that despite the generally poor results, Portland’s coaching staff is perfectly fine letting him work the kinks out. That confidence seems to manifest in Camara’s brazen manner on the drive. The shooting has potential and Billups is more than willing to see if Toumani can make other contributions to the offense by putting the ball on the deck. Only time will tell if loosening the reins can bear fruit.

It’s not the only way Portland has endeavored to find out how Camara can play a role.

Leveraging Athleticism Off-Ball

At a solid 6’8″ with 220 pounds of muscle, Toumani’s height and size benefit him as a shooter and driver. Portland has begun to ask, why not test him out as a screener?

For a guy with decision-making issues, screener usage has allowed him to narrow the tree of decisions. Once he sets a good screen and rolls, the choices are fairly simple: find the finishing angle or kick out to shooters and cutters. Camara has looked much better with this narrower set of decisions.

The PPP on his roll man possessions has jumped from 0.88 last year to 1.125 this year, a noticeable jump that reflects the tape: Camara is learning to make better choices. The good mix of passes from the roll is encouraging to boot. As the league spreads out and trends to diverse sizes and skills, a big wing that can effectively screen and roll is a great tool.

Camara also presents some good cutting instincts, and though the iffy finishing remains an issue when playing below the rim, he’s more than capable of finishing above the rim spectacularly.

As a guy taking on tons of primary defensive assignments, it’s admirable that Camara gets out in transition with good frequency. Again the finishing issues persist unless he can get vertical, but some of the results have been enjoyable.

For the second year running, Camara is a 90th percentile or better offensive rebounder for a wing. Not only does he have the size and vertical athleticism, but Toumani also hustles hard for putbacks and tip-outs. Despite his struggles finishing on the drive, he often shows special hand-eye coordination with his tip-ins. Throw in good instincts on when to put the ball back up and when to kick it back out and you have one of the premier second-chance creators and finishers from the perimeter in the whole league.

The shooting is passable, the screening and cutting are solid, and the offensive rebounding is outstanding. Overall, this adds up to a pretty useful off-ball player in the proper context. Hopefully, time will allow Portland to add more offensive creators and find better synergy or player fits over the next few years to place Camara in a better offensive setting to leverage his talents. In the meantime, they might as well let him take threes, set screens, and endure some rough drives to figure out how much untapped offensive potential resides within Toumani.

Defensive Stud

Much like Bilal Coulibaly in Washington, Camara is the young defensive perimeter bludgeon a tanking team uses to bother their opponent’s top option. The versatility on display from Toumani is rather unique, even amongst the best defenders in the league. Since the beginning of last year when I began to studiously watch his tape, I jotted down a rough list of players I’ve seen him take on as primary assignments for at least chunks of a game, if not a whole game.

That’s a pretty good visual of what it looks like to be thrown in the fire. What’s crazy is that he has looked more than capable of handling it. Enjoy 100+ games’ worth of Toumani making life hard on, or completely shutting down, his massive range of assignments on an island.

His +1.2 D-EPM mark from last season numbered amongst the elite, especially impressive given that EPM factors in context, so the weight of playing on a 21-win team only makes it more noteworthy. He’s suffered slightly in his numbers as Portland’s defense somehow gets worse. Still, we are watching one of the better perimeter defenders in the league here, and few can get around this guy. There’s only one hole in the perimeter game I keep my eye on: speed.

Some handlers can turn on the jets and give Toumani issues. Given his prowess and technical attention to detail, a little tightening up of the footwork preparedness would put him in trail block positions more often, or create outright stops. It’s well within his skillset to close this gap with reps.

Rotation Questions

It’s not uncommon for young players to be far more attentive and effective on the ball than off it. But with so much of the game happening away from the ballhandler, those lapses in focus and technique will burn you now more than ever. Someone as effective on the ball as Toumani will be avoided as his reputation builds, so attacking him off the ball becomes necessary. Camara has failed to bring that same intensity to his off-ball game.

He’s missing rotations, losing cutters, offering weak help, and moving at inopportune times. All things that can kill a defense in rotation, especially given the talent Camara often finds himself covering.

Darrelle Revis was the best at what he did because he was in your jersey every play until the ball hit the turf. Wise quarterbacks looked away from him early, but the best of the best were testing his attention all game long and he hardly ever lapsed. Toumani will be forced to step up his attention in the coming years. Luckily, there has been an uptick in the current season.

His block and steal rates have remained steady as he continues to be a strong event creator on and off the ball, and his ability to switch has played a major role in the elite steal rates. Setting a screen good enough to take him off the ball puts his long arms in passing lanes of all kinds, something he relishes.

Don’t get me wrong, Toumani being a lockdown perimeter option is the most important developmental goal. Eventually, those players will want to iso or call for a ball screen and Toumani will be there. But in the times he’s off the ball, waiting for those opportunities, he will need to ensure he doesn’t get burned with cuts, off-ball screens, and long closeouts. Tightening up his rotational defense would truly make him the whole package on the ugly end of the floor, and a potential All-Defense candidate in coming years.

Looking Forward

The usage patterns throughout the season will be interesting to monitor offensively, especially if Portland undergoes further selling at the deadline to clear out minutes and touches. I hope to see the shooting numbers stay solid and further development of his decision-making on the drive, possibly coming from his chances as a roll man. Any sort of improvement as a threat around the basket would be a welcome sight.

Defensively, I’ll be watching how he handles speedy guards to see if his few gaps can be closed on the perimeter. I look forward to seeing more of his chops against the toughest assignments. The signs in rotational and off-ball defense have been good, but I want more consistency from an already outstanding defender. He’s got the potential to be a world-wrecker from the wing spot. The last time I wrote about a young wing needing to strive beyond excellence, I got to watch Dyson Daniels deliver on his promise in Atlanta and put together what will surely be an All-Defensive nod. I see that same potential in Camara.

Chin up, Portland fans. Rebuild is about finding one guy at a time, and Toumani is very much a guy to bank on for years to come. Someone who makes their teammates look good as Camara does will be a welcome presence for whoever can lead Portland into the future.

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