Do-it-all wing with premium skill and athleticism

2. Dylan Harper, Rutgers

Bruising driving guard and potent scorer

3. Khaman Maluach, Duke

Towering young big with upside as a play finisher and rim protector

4. VJ Edgecombe, Baylor

Explosive scoring guard and lockdown defender

5. Kasparas Jakucionis, Illinois

Pull-up maestro with passing creativity

6. Collin Murray-Boyles, South Carolina

Elite playmaking forward on both sides of the ball

7. Ace Bailey, Rutgers

Versatile shooting wing with dynamic athleticism

8. Derik Queen, Maryland

Creative big-bodied drive threat who can pass

9. Tre Johnson, Texas

Versatile scoring, smooth three point shooting bucket-getter

10. Thomas Sorber, Georgetown

Tough freshman PF with strong feel for the game

11. Jeremiah Fears, Oklahoma

Young lead guard with dribble, pass, shoot upside

12. Noa Essengue, ULM

Sinewy rim attacker with budding ball skills and defensive versatility

13. Asa Newell, Georgia

Versatile defender, glass-crashing post-up threat developing three point shot

14. Jase Richardson, Michigan State

Three-level scoring guard with quick processing

15. Labaron Philon, Alabama

Gadgety, versatile, productive guard every team could use

16. Ben Saraf, ULM

Best passer in class as a game managing point guard and scorer

17. Noah Penda, Le Mans

Menacing wing defender and offensive connector

18. Miles Byrd, San Diego State

Stocks machine with shooting potential

19. Kon Knueppel, Duke

Three point sniper with shooting versatility and P&R playmaking chops

20. Johni Broome, Auburn

Versatile playmaking forward as one of best NCAA players in the country

21. Kam Jones, Marquette

Paint touch machine, three-level scorer who can pass

22. Nolan Traore, Saint-Quentin

Quick first step point guard who is a willing shooter and active defender

23. Rasheer Fleming, Saint Joseph’s

Big wing who can shoot with a 7’5” wingspan

24. Egor Demin, BYU

Elite passer with inconsistent play against top competition

25. Liam McNeeley, Connecticut

Three point threat who attacks closeouts looking to finish strong

26. Danny Wolf, Michigan

Unique ball-handling point center with quick processing skills

27. Adou Thiero, Arkansas

Physical slasher who creates events on defense

28. Darrion Williams, Texas Tech

Skilled upperclassman who can shoot and pass from the wing

29. Anthony Robinson II, Missouri

Point-of-attack demon with some ball skills

30. Boogie Fland, Arkansas

Game managing shooter and passer out for season

31. Hugo Gonzalez, Real Madrid

Toolsy high motor player with versatility

32. Ryan Kalkbrenner, Creighton

Big man upperclassman who dominates the paint on both ends

33. Flory Bidunga, Kansas

Undersized but hyper-athletic rangy big

34. Alex Karaban, Connecticut

Elite shooter and wing defender, national champion

35. Will Riley, Illinois

Under-developed young wing shooter and passer

36. Rocco Zikarsky, Brisbane

18-year-old with a chance to be best rim protector in class

37. Tahaad Pettiford, Auburn

Dribble-pass-shoot quick small guard

38. JT Toppin, Texas Tech

High motor, high producing rim attacker

39. Joshua Jefferson, Iowa State

Physical defender with some connector chops as a big wing

40. Ian Jackson, North Carolina

Pure scoring freshman who can catch fire like few others

41. Bennett Stirtz, Drake

Potentially underrated lead guard up-transfer from Division II

42. JoJo Tugler, Houston

+12 wingspan for this mobile rim protector

43. Nique Clifford, Colorado State

Fluid-moving upperclassman who does a little of everything

44. Chad Baker-Mazara, Auburn

Upperclassman utility wing with a smooth shot

45. Tomislav Ivisic, Illinois

Floor-spacing center and ball-mover

46. Carter Bryant, Arizona

Talented freshman wing providing a punch off the bench

47. KJ Lewis, Arizona

Aggressive defender with questions on offense

48. Dink Pate, Mexico City

18-year-old G Leaguer with a big body and flashes all over the court

49. Yaxel Lendeborg, UAB

Elbow/post hub with a well-rounded driving game and plus passing

50. Bogoljub Markovic, KK Mega

Astounding rebounder with some intriguing movement skills at 6’11”

51. Xaivian Lee, Princeton

Shifty guard who can table set and let it fly from deep

52. Chaz Lanier, Tennessee

High volume shooter who rarely makes mistakes at age 23

53. Eric Dixon, Villanova

Pure shooting 6’8” upperclassman, one of best players in NCAA

54. Javon Small, West Virginia

Highly productive lead guard essential to WVU

55. Walter Clayton Jr.

High volume three point shooter who can do some guard things

56. Drake Powell, North Carolina

Hyperactive freshman defender with shooting potential

57. Alex Condon, Florida

Sharp-passing sophomore big who can grease and offense and get stocks

58. RJ Luis, Saint John’s

Dynamic athlete scorer

59. Milan Momcilovic

Unblockable shot for this 6’8” 40% three point shooter

The post 2025 NBA Draft Big Board 1.0 appeared first on Swish Theory.

BOOMSHAKALAKA!

Joshua Lewis makes the highlight poster dunk of the weekend

Postgame Interview with Joshua Lewis (Blake)

Great game out there. Crazy poster slam! What that feel like?

“Yessir! That felt great, I think that’s the best one I got so far in my career, so that felt really good to get a good one.”

What’s your mentality like entering games?

“Just be locked in. Bring energy. Help lead my team. Especially since we’re in a tough situation with our coach being out right now, so I definitely got to step up and be a big leader on the floor.”

What kind of skill development are you working in practice the most; what are you doing now and what do you hope to develop in the future?

“Just continue to get my handle better and get stronger, stay in the weight room; those are probably the two biggest things I’m working on. And just getting my shot more consistent, for sure”

Are there any players, former or current, that you study, that might inspire your game or model some of your skills after?

“Yeah, recently I’ve been watching a lot of Shai, I really like the way he moves on the court. But just any big guard that’s my size, handles the ball, you know those guys like Kevin Durant, Brandon Ingram, Paul George, Shai, all those type of players, I watch all of them for sure.”

Any recruitment updates? You thinking anywhere, eyeing anywhere?

“Yeah I’ve been talking to Iowa a lot, they’ve been on me a lot. I’ve been talking to Michigan some, Marquette some. I’ve been having some good recruitment, N.C. State some, Texas A&M, just to name a few.”

What’s going to lock it in for you?

“That gut feeling, that’s it. I feel like when you know, you know.”

The Teams

Oak Ridge
Duncanville
Blake
North Broward Prep
Pepperville
Southeastern Prep

The Standout Players

Jamier Jones
Kayden Edwards
Joe Philon
Beckham Black
Jalen Reece
Joshua Lewis
Jason Johnson
Cam Smith
Christopher “Deuce” Hunt
Chudier Dew yak
Ryan Baxley
Zyree Brown

Day 2 Game 3 – Oak Ridge vs. Duncanville

Kayden Edwards and Jamier Jones traded blows back and forth like they were in a heavyweight fight, each dropping 40+ points before the final bell!

In the marquee matchup of the weekend, Duncanville outlasted the host team, Oak Ridge, in double overtime late into Saturday night, winning 95-90.

Jamier Jones used his mobility, power, and touch inside to create a walking mismatch near the rim, recording a new career-high 41 PTS & 11 REB.

Kayden Edwards showed out as the highlight prospect of this event, dropping 45 PTS against Oak Ridge after a 30 PT outing the day before against Pepperidge.

Duncanville

#5 6’3” Guard Kayden Edwards – 45 PTS – 5 REB – 3 AST – 2 STL (14/23 FG – 4/10 3P – 13/14 FT)

Explosive quick first step burst. Soft touch finishing at the rim. Money pull-up jumper. Tough shot maker any spot on the court. Tight ball control. Defensive instincts, jumping passing lanes, timing up deflections. Great awareness when to use pump-fakes. Good feel playmaker. Draws fouls attacking the rack and threatening the pull-up.

Kayden Edwards stayed hot shooting all weekend. After a 30 PTS & 10 REB win over Blake the day before, Kayden lit up Oak Ridge for 45 PTS – 5 REB – 3 AST – STL, hitting tough bucket after bucket from every angle, drawing fouls and getting downhill with ease, converting 14/23 FG from the field, 4/10 3P from downtown, and 13/14 FT from the pinstripe.

Kayden’s tough shot making off the dribble and ability to burst to the rack with ease was on full display as his standout skills, making any shot from anywhere on the floor.

In the first half of the final game against Oak Ridge, Kayden Edwards got to the rim, hunted contact, and showed off shooting touch at every level: a pick six layup, quick burst to the rim drawing a foul, a strong take to the rim for a finger roll, a clean running FLOATA, a corner triple, a bump and finish at the basket, an AND1 putback in the paint, and a bailout putback middy.

The buckets didn’t slow down in the second half: Kayden drilled a pull-up three, splashed a catch-and-shoot triple, hit a defender with a killer crossover into a layup, made good team-first read extra passes, drew a foul on a pull-up jumper.

His instincts impressed on the defensive end, making a deflection to block a shot under the rim to stop a layup, and even stealing the tip off in an overtime period and getting a defender to leave his feet on a pump-fake.

#0 6’2” Point Guard Beckham Black – 8 PTS – 7 AST – 7 AST – 2 STL (2/5 3P)

Beckham Black, Kayden’s Duncanville backcourtmate and brother of the Orlando Magic’s Anthony Black, impressed with good two-way feel for the game, forcing deflections with defensive instincts, making good reads with the ball, and even pulling up for a handful of off-the-dribble three pointers with one falling through the net in clutch time of a double-overtime victory.

I asked Anthony Black after the game how he would describe his brother, Beckham, as a person off the court:

“Funny guy. Shoot, he’s a kid, so still growing up.

It’s cool to see him maturing, but, a good kid.

Loves basketball, loves to compete. Super proud of him.“

While his teammates filled up the box score, Beckham Black showed his incredible two-way feel for the game.

Looking to make the best decision for the team every time down. Hitting pull-up 3pt jump shots when needed. Active hands deflections timing up forced turnovers. Downhill driver finishing at the rim and looking for open shooters. Racking up assists finding open teammates. Running the offense creating drive and kicks, hockey assists, and potential assists moving the ball after creating advantages.

Black’s vision was on full display in the first half, making a drive-and-corner-kick 3pt assist, a hockey assist that led to a triple, team-first reads for extra passes, a potential assist to the top of the key out of a baselines out-of-bounds set, and a kickout off an offensive rebound to Kayden, even showing off the handles with a killer crossover into the finger roll for good measure.

In the second half, Beckham’s two-way feel for the game was made evident: A wraparound pass to a cutter, a swing pass 3pt assist to Kayden, a drive-and-kick 3pt assist to Deuce, a sick swing pass overhead, a lead pass to the roller in pick-and-roll.
Beckham hit a pair of big threes, one after forcing a steal and walking up to the 3pt line for a pull-up jumper, and another that tied the game late to send it to overtime.

#2 6’1” Guard Christopher “Deuce” Hunt – 23 PTS – 5 REB – 4 STL – 2 AST (8/14 FG – 5/6 3P)

Knockdown C&S 3pt shooter (at least 4 3PM). Active hands digs for steals without fouling. Lookahead passer.

Deuce Hunt brought a reliable scoring option for Duncanville throughout the weekend, posting 18 PTS – 7 REB – 4 AST – 3 3PM against Blake on Day 1 and balling out on both ends against Oak Ridge on Day 2, dropping 23 PTS – 5 REB – 4 STL.

Deuce showed shooting touch in the clutch, hitting two big free throws to go up by 4 points with 36 seconds left, drilling a catch-and-shoot triple late in overtime, and splashing triples throughout the game.

#4 6’7” Forward Cam Smith – 6 PTS – 2 AST – 4 BLK – 1 STL – 3 Deflections

Shot blocking rim-protection. Quick second jump. Great timing defensive instincts. Smooth stroke 3pt shooter. Grab-and-go handles to bring the ball up the floor. Long length used effectively. Active hands deflections. Good vision passer.

Putting a lid on the rim throughout, Cam Smith came up big on both ends, bringing real D&3 impact, racking up at least 4 blocks, 1 steal, and 3 deflections. Cam dominated one possession with defensive instincts, timing up a block at the rim and recovering with a quick second jump to block another shot right after. Later in the game he even blocked a 3pt shot, somehow extending to the shooter from the paint.

Cam is only credited with 6 PTS, but he stayed ready from behind the arc, knocking down one catch-and-shoot triple, and he made a good play at the rim in transition with a bump-and-finish AND1, scoring three the old fashioned way. Smith kept his head up, finding an open shooter on the drive and kick and an open cutter slicing down the middle of the paint.

#10 6’1 Guard Gary Jones – 6 PTS – 4 REB – 2 STL

#3 6’3” Guard Jirehn Mitchell – 5 PTS – 2 REB

#11 6’0” Guard Chris Gooden Jr. – 2 PTS

Jirehn Mitchell showed touch passing vision on a pass he caught and immediately swung while still in the air and got a stop contesting Jamier Jones by moving his feet and staying long and tall without fouling. In double overtime, Jirehn drew a foul rolling to the rim, while Chris Gooden Jr. made a big winning play taking a charge against Jalen Reece. Gary Jones made smart cuts and tough baskets underneath the rim.

Oak Ridge

#1 6’6″ Forward Jamier Jones – 41 PTS – 11 REB – 4 AST – 4 STL – 2 BLK (18/26 FG)

Tough shot making at the rim. Body control in the post. Controlled driver. Mobility. Agility. Dexerity. Strong and finesse finisher at the rim. Defensive instincts with effective length. Heads up connector passing. Draws fouls driving downhill and in the paint.

Oak Ridge’s Jamier Jones was a walking mismatch against Duncanville. Whether it was securing early post up positioning on the block, accelerating into drives from the perimeter, or timing up self-alley layups to himself, there was nothing Duncanville could do to stop him from putting the ball in the hoop, scoring a career-high 41 PTS on the night on 69% FG% and pulling down 11 REB to boot with a physical, athletic advantage able to reach a higher point than anyone else on the court.

Scoring in different ways, especially on the move, like in a stampede action already running off a screen before catching the pass on the drive to the rack. Pulling up for a tough contested middy. Grab-and-go coast-to-coast through the defense. Sweet drives into the paint with smooth finishes inside. Powering through mismatches with a big man size advantage. Good footwork down low with a strong move through contact for an AND1 finish in the paint. Power slam after power slam. Whether it was downhill off the dribble or early post-up positioning, Jamier Jones got to the rack with ease.

Jamier brought real defensive impact between guarding the ball at point of attack and forcing Beckham Black to pass the ball, to tools like anticipation and timing with the athleticism to force a pick six steal into a breakaway slam.

Flashed nice vision on a pass underneath the basket. Handled clutch time, drilling a free throw in the final minute of a close game. Drew fouls attacking the rack with an AND1 drive below the rim to cut the lead to two late in the contest. Converted a bump-and-finish layup through contact to extend a late lead.

#2 6’0″ Guard Jalen Reece – 16 PTS – 9 AST – 4 REB – 3 STL (3/7 3P)

Natural point guard. Pull-up jump shooter. Soft touch FLOATA finishing at the rim. Runs the offense, directs traffic. Finds and feeds mismatches. Post entry bullet passes and clean kickouts to open shooters. Effective flare handles.

Jalen Reece flashed creative vision and tight ball control, setting up teammates with post entry passes throughout, looking for his teammates with quick-trigger passes and highlight dimes, finishing with 16 PTS & 9 AST.

Sending a bullet overhand pass to open teammates and quick post entry passes all night, Jalen found Jamier Jones for highlight connections including one clutch no-look pass for a power slam in overtime.

Reece showed off the handles and touch with a mean crossover into a finger roll finish, spinning into a running FLOATA and splashing a catch-and-shoot triple, all in double overtime.

Jalen used active hands and good timing to create deflections, too.

#3 6’3” Guard Will Jackson – 11 PTS – 5 REB – 2 AST – 2 STL (3/5 3P)

Will knocked down a couple of three pointers with at least one coming off the dribble before hitting two clutch free throws late in the game. Brought good energy, took a charge on a hustle play, flew in for an offensive rebound in traffic.

#4 6’7” Wing Treyvon Maddox – 12 PTS – 8 REB – 3 AST – 2 BLK (3/5 3P)

Treyvon played with high motor and toughness. Active hands defense created a deflection and steal. Energy on the glass led to an offensive rebound where he drew foul shots on the putback attempt. Driving strong to the rack, drawing two free throws, and knocking one down to extend his team’s lead to three with 37 seconds left in overtime. On top of his energy, Maddox showed deep shooting range, drilling a contested pull-up three and a catch-and-shoot triple.

#5 6’7” Forward CeZanne Mosley – 10 PTS – 5 REB

CeZanne took advantage of his size mismatch down low, finishing strong in the paint, showing fundamental footwork on the spin moves in the post, drawing the AND1 foul out of a baselines out-of-bounds set. Nice vision on high-low passes.

Entering the weekend at home, Oak Ridge was coming off two losses against fellow Marquee Florida High School Basketball Programs, Montverde and IMG Academy.

Losing to Duncanville was the fourth loss in a row for Oak Ridge, as the host team was taken down by Pebblebrook on Day 1 of the weekend, where Jalen Reece posted a statline of 28 PTS – 8 AST – 5 STL – 3 3PM and Jamier Jones finished with 14 PTS – 6 REB – 3 AST – 4 STL.

Pebblebrook’s #14 6’3” Guard Jaylen Humphrey led the way with 17 PTS & 6 REB; #2 5’10” Guard Zyree Brown scored 13 PTS; #15 6’10” Center Fallou Dioum scored 12 PTS in the matchup.

Against Southeastern Prep, Dioum showed good timing on a block while #20 6’7” Wing Anthony Moon knocked down a catch-and-shoot triple.

Southeastern Prep’s #23 (no roster listed) impressed in the fourth quarter of a blowout win against Pebblebrook. Flying up and down the court, throwing down high-flying slams, popping out of the gym athletically on his dunks, rebounds, and contests.

In the opening game on the first day of Hoopfest Florida, Blake’s 6’7” Wing Joshua Lewis scored 32 PTS – 4 STL – 1 BLK and 6’8” Guard Joe Philon scored 16 PTS – 8 REB – 3 STL against Duncanville.

Against Blake, Beckham Black dropped 11 PTS – 3 REB -3 AST -3 STL, “Deuce” Hunt posted 18 PTS, and Kayden Edwards went off for 30 PTS – 4 REB – 3 AST – 2 STL.

In the second game on Day 2, Joshua Lewis and Joe Philon led Blake to a victory over North Broward Prep, while Chudier Diew yak stood out the most for his team in defeat.

Day 2 Game 2- North Broward Prep vs Blake – Standout Players

Blake

#1 6’9” Wing Joe Philon – 7 PTS – 7 REB – 4 AST – 3 BLK – 2 STL (4.0 A/TO)

Joe Philon impressed with all-around athleticism, versatility, and two-way feel. Philon showed incredible defensive instincts making a block off a quick second jump, swatting another shot from behind on a different possession, poking the ball away for a steal at one point, and trapping an opponent in the corner to help force a deflection.

Philon flashed soft touch by splashing a catch-and-shoot corner triple and convering a tough driving bump-and-finish lay-in.

One aspect Philon could improve was decision-making in transition, where he forced one or two errant passes at teammates’ feet that probably could have been easier to catch in stride rather than trying to perfectly time a bounce pass on the run.

#5 6’7” Guard/Wing Joshua Lewis – 13 PTS – 8 REB – 2 AST

Joshua Lewis made the SportsCenter Top-10 worthy highlight of the night: rising up, climbing the ladder, floating even higher after making contact, and throwing down the poster slam.

Lewis pulled up for at least three elbow middies, swished in a running FLOATA, drew the foul hunting contact beneath the rim, hit the skip pass to the corner, made a well-timed cut off ball for the rim finish, and pushed the pace when opportunity struck.

#20 6’6’ Forward Jason Johnson – 18 PTS (7/9 FG) – 7 REB – 2 AST – 3 STL – 2 BLK

Jason Johnson impressed in many facets of the game.

Jason knocked down a triple, made a huge block, showed swarming defense with a full court press steal leading to a breakaway bump-and-finish AND1 runner, all in the first half. In the second half, Johnson threw down monster dunks, made multiple soft touch finishes at the rim with one drawing a foul, and knocked down a jumper running off a screen.

#2 6’0” G Rashif Sinkfield – 2 PTS – 3 REB – 2 AST – 1 STL
Rashif flashed good feel with the drive-and-kick corner 3pt assist and crafty finishing at the rim.

#3 6’0” G Marion Ward – 11 PTS – 3 3PM – 2 AST – 2 STL
Marion showed of the jumper pulling up for a transition triple and splashing in a corner three, the defensive instincts forcing a turnover, and the finishing touch on a breakaway layup.

#4 5’11” G TJ Daniels – 8 PTS – 2 REB – 1 AST – 2 STL
TJ brought good effort trapping a defender in the corner to force a deflection, showed off nice vision with a no-look dumpoff pass, and flashed the 3pt shot with a catch-and-shoot corner three.

#12 6’3” G Jordan Mickens – 2 PTS – 5 AST – 2 STL
Jordan showed good vision with a solid drive-and-kick read for the corner 3pt assist.

North Broward Prep

#3 Guard Ryan Baxley – 9 PTS – 5 AST – 4 REB – 1 STL

Ryan Baxley flashed his soft touch at the rim with a floater, clean shooting range drilling catch-and-shoot threes in the corner and in transition, vision on a nice look-ahead pass, and good defensive instincts on closeouts and loose balls forcing a turnover.

#5 6’9” Wing Chudier Diew yak – 8 PTS – 3 REB – 1 BLK (2/4 3P)

Chudier Diew yak impressed with shooting touch at the rim and beyond the arc, drilling multiple catch-and-shoot threes and finishing an up-and-under cleanly.

Chudier brings a high motor on hustle plays, pulling down a big rebound in traffic, fighting for loose balls to force the turnover, and using the length effectively as a rim deterrent.

#10 6’5” Wing Luigi Borio – 6 PTS – 5 REB – 1 AST – 2 STL – 1 BLK
Luigi added a catch-and-shoot triple of his own and even timed up a nice block on a floater attempt.

#24 Big Francesco Borio – 4 PTS – 5 REB – 1 AST – 2 BLK – 1 STL
Francesco finished strong a the rim with a bump-and-finish through contact and a mean AND1 putback.

#30 Gavin Gorman 6 PTS (2/4 3P) – 2 REB – 1 AST
Gavin splashed a few catch-and-shoot triples

The post Scouting 2024 Hoopfest ft. Oak Ridge, Duncanville, Blake appeared first on Swish Theory.

In 1995, 12 wolves were transferred from Western Canada to two different acclimatization pens in the Yellowstone National Park in an effort to restore the wolf populations of Wyoming, Montana, and Idaho.

This was just the first of many steps that led to the current, healthy wolf populations and to a series of numerous direct and indirect consequences that unexpectedly even positively affected the landscape of the park itself.

The wolves started putting pressure on the elk population, diminishing their number, thus allowing the willows to start recolonizing the park. The increased availability of building materials allowed beavers to thrive and expand, and ultimately the countless engineering works of these rodents modified the course of the rivers. An incredible story that became emblematic of the crucial balancing role of apex predators within habitats.

This dynamic is called “trophic cascade” and is also identifiable in other lesser known situations like the reintroduction of the Tasmanian devil.

This video pretty much became a cornerstone of whatever ecology course of study.

What does this even have to do with basketball?

When I started watching some G League games and stats this season, something didn’t feel right to me. The “landscape” didn’t look the same as I remembered.

Thinking about the possible reasons that caused such a change in the teams’ rotations I remembered the recent introduction of a third two-way contract. This brought to my mind the Yellowstone wolves and I hypothesized that this could lead to a similar series of ripple effects.

Is it possible that a small change in a crucial part of the system caused a major change in the scenery? Is it possible that the addition of the third two-way caused a significant shift in the minute distributions?

No Country For Rookies

What first struck me as I approached this G League season was the apparent scarcity of rookies playing prominent roles.

When I try to decide which game to watch I look up box scores on the G League site, and I’m generally subject to the “New Shiny Toy Syndrome,” preferring to watch games where a bunch of rookies play a relevant role. I found it much more difficult in the first part of the 2024-25 season, and I often ended up watching the same few teams.

Trying to clarify the situation, the first thing I did was check the stats on the beloved and despised G League site (clear room for improvement for a more enjoyable and easily accessible product, as I pointed out in another article) which confirmed my first impression.

After putting everything down on a spreadsheet, I found that the share of rookie minutes among the top 100 players dropped from 34% during the 2023-24 Showcase Tournament to 24% in the 2024-25 Tip-off Tournament. This is certainly a significant difference (it was even larger in the first months of the season, around -13/-14%) that deserves attention and further analysis.

Even just looking up box scores it is evident that some teams generally didn’t even start a rookie. For example, this was the case with the College Park Skyhawks (they had in Djurisic their rookie star, and he was still dealing with a foot injury, to be honest), Long Island Nets, Windy City Bulls, and Capital City Go-Go, which had only 83 minutes total played by rookies over the whole tournament.

The Osceola Magic (recently rebranded after the legendary chief of the Seminole) deserve a special note for the uniqueness of their case: no rookie suited up for them during the Tip-off Tournament, and they had an average age of 25.8 years.

The complete Osceola Magic roster for the Tip-Off Tournament

Could the introduction of the third two-way be the trigger of a similar change in the minutes’ distribution?

Good things come in threes

The introduction of two-way contracts in 2017 was a game changer for the empowerment of the G League. Those represented a new frontier of player development and became a tangible connection between two almost separate “habitats.”

In a matter of few seasons, the abundance of talent on the margins of the league made clear the insufficiency of just two two-way spots. Therefore, following the new Collective Bargain Agreement, the NBA introduced the possibility of signing a third player with a two-way contract starting with the 2023-24 season.

Examining how the two-way distribution changed before and after this new introduction is interesting. Obviously, the two-way contracts aren’t set in stone and things can change throughout the year, but as of today, thirty-three rookies signed a two-way contract for the 2024-25 season. During the 2022-23 season, the last before the introduction of the third two-way, 30 two-way players out of 60 available spots were occupied by rookies.

While the raw number of rookies obviously increased, the overall percentage dropped by 13%. We could suppose that the third two-way allowed the teams to approach this matter with a more developmental view, stimulating them to work on fringe players for more seasons. This means more two-way contracts are allocated to players in their second or third season.

At the time of the last CBA negotiations, the goal of the league itself was to give teams the tools to develop players with fewer than four years of experience playing part-time in the G League and in the NBA.

Along with this comes a series of considerations. There are some ifs and buts, but a two-way contract can be worth up to $578,577 (50% of the regular NBA minimum). More spots mean more potentially life-changing money for fringe players, which means more good G League players have a great reason to stay around longer, taking their chance in the minor league without signing abroad. This kind of enrichment and improvement of salary conditions for a part of the players leads to more competitiveness and to a higher level of the sport.

As an example, one of the players signed with a two-way contract most recently, Daeqwon Plowden, who is 26 and is in his third G League season, probably wouldn’t be on a two-way contract at this point of his career without the introduction of the third spot.

While a similar dynamic is clearly beneficial for the league in a vacuum and potentially more propaedeutic to NBA success, it could lead to an environment initially less friendly for rookies and newcomers.

Just a bad harvest?

While my initial hypothesis is supported by some statistical evidences as we saw, it’s probably too early to have a definitive answer for the questions posed in the introduction.

There could actually be a simpler reason that caused a similar shift in the minutes’ distribution: the level of the current rookie class.

There’s talent in every rookie class, and this year’s isn’t an exception, but it looks less rich than others that preceded it. Already during the scouting process, there were some doubts, especially about the absence of top-tier prospects, and the NBA Rookie of the Year race is confirming it so far.

Even simply looking up the playing time in the NBA, we can notice the absence of rookies playing 30 or more minutes and even how there are few playing more than 20 minutes per game. Along with it comes a general impression of a class that is struggling to shine in the league. And while this isn’t a real demonstration of a bad class, it certainly is a symptom of a weird one that is leading to an equally weird race for Rookie Of the Year with no real favorite.

The lack of rookies’ minutes in G League could be just a reflection of an overall rookie class that’s also not particularly strong or deep.

Equilibrium

In the case the league is indeed experiencing the described dynamic, this however could not last forever.

When apex predators recolonize a certain territory after an extended period of absence, the population of their main prey can face a drastic decrease because the animals don’t have the needed defensive strategies anymore and don’t know how to evade predation attempts. The casual observer can mistake it for a local extinction, but it’s just a transitory fluctuation within the normal predator-prey interactions.

An example of a model that simulates the interaction between a population of predators and preys (rights reserved to Arizona State University)

Even if there’s an apparent shift in rookie minutes and two-way allocations, this could represent a similar oscillation that the system will re-balance in the near future. It’ll be interesting to keep track of its evolution going forward.

As you probably understood reading this article, it’s very difficult to analyze and define such a volatile and ever-evolving league like the G League (just consider the league reached the ever-chased 30 teams with NBA affiliation only this season, for example) but, at the end of the day, as I said in a DM to Matt Powers when I started thinking about this article, I don’t have the perfect answer for this question, but guessing is the fun part.

The post The Changing Landscape appeared first on Swish Theory.

That being said, not much of this tank’s return has shown. Shaedon Sharpe was the first major draft pick of this new era, and though he’s flashed potential, his injury concerns and limitations bring up questions. Scoot Henderson was supposed to be the franchise’s cornerstone but faces an uphill battle to be a productive player in the league, let alone live up to his potential. Donovan Clingan was a great prospect but hardly projected to be a centerpiece.

In the spirit of piling on, the non-draft picks haven’t panned out either. Anfernee Simons is at least staying healthy but has regressed somewhat. Jerami Grant, the last holdout of the Dame era besides Simons and Sharpe, has failed to generate enough trade interest to be moved. The same can be said for DeAndre Ayton. Grant is 30, Ayton is 26, and Simons is 25. Despite that, it’s hard to feel good about any of them as players who can be around for a future successful iteration of the Blazers.

It’s not all dire. The Deni Avdija acquisition was a shrewd move that should pan out in the long run. Robert Williams III has managed to recapture some of his value and could fetch them something decent in a trade. But what excites me most about Portland’s rebuild is that the third player they acquired in the 2023 draft has been the best of the trio.

Enter Toumani Camara.

More than used to being an afterthought in his basketball career, Camara was a footnote in the gargantuan Damian Lillard-Jrue Holiday-Ayton-Jusuf Nurkic deal. Portland decision-makers coveted the three first-round picks and the cadre of tradeable veterans they got from the teardown, not the four-year college player taken with the 52nd overall pick. Yet he may be the best thing they got out of the deal.

Let me show you why.

Offensive Overview

For those of you following this series, it’s hardly surprising I have found yet another defense-first wing searching for an offensive role. Peyton Watson, Dyson Daniels, Aaron Nesmith, Bilal Coulibaly, and Nickeil Alexander-Walker have all featured thus far. Yet all of them save Watson had some sort of established offensive identity. Watson has yet to find any. So I wanted to focus on a player finding an interesting way of contributing offensively. It starts with the most boring off-ball skill.

Shooting

Camara is primarily stationed as a corner shooter in Portland’s base offense, taking nearly half of his perimeter looks from there. Their general lack of shooting as a team forces him to lift above the break more often but that’s been fine up to a certain point. Camara is hitting 36% of his above-the-break looks, a hair above his 34% mark from the corners, and looks confident.

Portland has real spacing issues to work out as a team and I don’t see Camara as the long-term spacing outlet. But for his role as a big wing playing off primary creators, he’s doing a fine job. The increase in three-point volume from last year to this year has been promising and I hope it continues as coach Chauncey Billups grooms him for a role as a fifth offensive option in the long run.

Finishing Questions

Camara may be passable from the perimeter, but it is considerably more problematic in the restricted area. His 59% mark at the rim is a 30th percentile mark for wings, and the 32% mark in the short midrange is a tough 27th percentile mark. It’s not for a lack of trying on his part. Camara generally resides in the upper quartile of wings on rim FGA percentage in addition to roughly half of his rim attempts being self-created. Typically, his finishes on the drive look like this:

I’d be remiss if I didn’t show off some of the good. Sometimes it looks very good and makes you excited.

Mostly what we have here isn’t a confidence problem; Camara isn’t afraid to go at anyone, finish with either hand, or try audacious looks. What we mostly have here is a decision-making problem. Sometimes it’s not about how you finish, but when you choose to. This shows up more when we look at his playmaking off the drive. Again, some of it does look good!

But the bad patterns are there in spades. Running right into charges, jumping in the air without a plan, being early or late to passing windows, and failing to recognize help points. There’s a reason his turnover percentage is around 15% for the second straight year, despite single-digit assist rates and a usage rate in the low teens.

What’s important to me is that despite the generally poor results, Portland’s coaching staff is perfectly fine letting him work the kinks out. That confidence seems to manifest in Camara’s brazen manner on the drive. The shooting has potential and Billups is more than willing to see if Toumani can make other contributions to the offense by putting the ball on the deck. Only time will tell if loosening the reins can bear fruit.

It’s not the only way Portland has endeavored to find out how Camara can play a role.

Leveraging Athleticism Off-Ball

At a solid 6’8″ with 220 pounds of muscle, Toumani’s height and size benefit him as a shooter and driver. Portland has begun to ask, why not test him out as a screener?

For a guy with decision-making issues, screener usage has allowed him to narrow the tree of decisions. Once he sets a good screen and rolls, the choices are fairly simple: find the finishing angle or kick out to shooters and cutters. Camara has looked much better with this narrower set of decisions.

The PPP on his roll man possessions has jumped from 0.88 last year to 1.125 this year, a noticeable jump that reflects the tape: Camara is learning to make better choices. The good mix of passes from the roll is encouraging to boot. As the league spreads out and trends to diverse sizes and skills, a big wing that can effectively screen and roll is a great tool.

Camara also presents some good cutting instincts, and though the iffy finishing remains an issue when playing below the rim, he’s more than capable of finishing above the rim spectacularly.

As a guy taking on tons of primary defensive assignments, it’s admirable that Camara gets out in transition with good frequency. Again the finishing issues persist unless he can get vertical, but some of the results have been enjoyable.

For the second year running, Camara is a 90th percentile or better offensive rebounder for a wing. Not only does he have the size and vertical athleticism, but Toumani also hustles hard for putbacks and tip-outs. Despite his struggles finishing on the drive, he often shows special hand-eye coordination with his tip-ins. Throw in good instincts on when to put the ball back up and when to kick it back out and you have one of the premier second-chance creators and finishers from the perimeter in the whole league.

The shooting is passable, the screening and cutting are solid, and the offensive rebounding is outstanding. Overall, this adds up to a pretty useful off-ball player in the proper context. Hopefully, time will allow Portland to add more offensive creators and find better synergy or player fits over the next few years to place Camara in a better offensive setting to leverage his talents. In the meantime, they might as well let him take threes, set screens, and endure some rough drives to figure out how much untapped offensive potential resides within Toumani.

Defensive Stud

Much like Bilal Coulibaly in Washington, Camara is the young defensive perimeter bludgeon a tanking team uses to bother their opponent’s top option. The versatility on display from Toumani is rather unique, even amongst the best defenders in the league. Since the beginning of last year when I began to studiously watch his tape, I jotted down a rough list of players I’ve seen him take on as primary assignments for at least chunks of a game, if not a whole game.

That’s a pretty good visual of what it looks like to be thrown in the fire. What’s crazy is that he has looked more than capable of handling it. Enjoy 100+ games’ worth of Toumani making life hard on, or completely shutting down, his massive range of assignments on an island.

His +1.2 D-EPM mark from last season numbered amongst the elite, especially impressive given that EPM factors in context, so the weight of playing on a 21-win team only makes it more noteworthy. He’s suffered slightly in his numbers as Portland’s defense somehow gets worse. Still, we are watching one of the better perimeter defenders in the league here, and few can get around this guy. There’s only one hole in the perimeter game I keep my eye on: speed.

Some handlers can turn on the jets and give Toumani issues. Given his prowess and technical attention to detail, a little tightening up of the footwork preparedness would put him in trail block positions more often, or create outright stops. It’s well within his skillset to close this gap with reps.

Rotation Questions

It’s not uncommon for young players to be far more attentive and effective on the ball than off it. But with so much of the game happening away from the ballhandler, those lapses in focus and technique will burn you now more than ever. Someone as effective on the ball as Toumani will be avoided as his reputation builds, so attacking him off the ball becomes necessary. Camara has failed to bring that same intensity to his off-ball game.

He’s missing rotations, losing cutters, offering weak help, and moving at inopportune times. All things that can kill a defense in rotation, especially given the talent Camara often finds himself covering.

Darrelle Revis was the best at what he did because he was in your jersey every play until the ball hit the turf. Wise quarterbacks looked away from him early, but the best of the best were testing his attention all game long and he hardly ever lapsed. Toumani will be forced to step up his attention in the coming years. Luckily, there has been an uptick in the current season.

His block and steal rates have remained steady as he continues to be a strong event creator on and off the ball, and his ability to switch has played a major role in the elite steal rates. Setting a screen good enough to take him off the ball puts his long arms in passing lanes of all kinds, something he relishes.

Don’t get me wrong, Toumani being a lockdown perimeter option is the most important developmental goal. Eventually, those players will want to iso or call for a ball screen and Toumani will be there. But in the times he’s off the ball, waiting for those opportunities, he will need to ensure he doesn’t get burned with cuts, off-ball screens, and long closeouts. Tightening up his rotational defense would truly make him the whole package on the ugly end of the floor, and a potential All-Defense candidate in coming years.

Looking Forward

The usage patterns throughout the season will be interesting to monitor offensively, especially if Portland undergoes further selling at the deadline to clear out minutes and touches. I hope to see the shooting numbers stay solid and further development of his decision-making on the drive, possibly coming from his chances as a roll man. Any sort of improvement as a threat around the basket would be a welcome sight.

Defensively, I’ll be watching how he handles speedy guards to see if his few gaps can be closed on the perimeter. I look forward to seeing more of his chops against the toughest assignments. The signs in rotational and off-ball defense have been good, but I want more consistency from an already outstanding defender. He’s got the potential to be a world-wrecker from the wing spot. The last time I wrote about a young wing needing to strive beyond excellence, I got to watch Dyson Daniels deliver on his promise in Atlanta and put together what will surely be an All-Defensive nod. I see that same potential in Camara.

Chin up, Portland fans. Rebuild is about finding one guy at a time, and Toumani is very much a guy to bank on for years to come. Someone who makes their teammates look good as Camara does will be a welcome presence for whoever can lead Portland into the future.

The post Finding a Role: Toumani Camara appeared first on Swish Theory.

Since the 2024 cycle, I have tried to dive deeper into answering the question of how we can project and evaluate draft prospects more accurately from the vacuum. I thought the best way to approach this would be to solve the problem systematically. I started by trying to identify what traits were common among the players that succeeded over time regardless of how limited their early usage was and their fit in the roster construction.

In a lot of ways to rank players on a board is taking a step back and looking at scouting the draft through a broader systemic approach. I believe that part of the exercise has intrinsic value. However, to project without a development context has no real value. I think the optimal way to rank and project the players from a vacuum is to identify the caliber a player can reach even if they end up in a less-than-desired development context.

The idea that I kept circling back to is that success was often tied to the traits that were much harder to develop: feel, athletic tools, motor, and touch. Digging through the history of the draft, it landed me on the concept of role malleability – a notion that encompasses these traits. In my experience, showing a high proclivity to role malleability below the age of 23 has been a strong proxy for a player’s processing, application of athletic tools, shooting tools, and motor. With this, my draft philosophy evolved and has helped me formulate my tenets of scouting the draft through my eye test and statistical analysis:

• Age-Adjusted Production Relative To Competition.
• Role Malleability Traits (Application Of Feel, Motor, Application Of Athleticism, Touch).
• Skill Intersections (Positive Or Negative Chain Of Skills That Provide Baseline For Production).
• Margin Of Error On The Court
• Application Of Tools (Avoid Archetype Bias)

In my margins piece, I designed a funnel framework to systematically value the projection of players based on their margin of error – a function of a player’s advantage creation/mitigation skillsets. While I still agree with much of what went into the framework, I realized I structured it too narrowly by using the dependency on scheme (usage of screens or an empty-side action to clear one side of the court). I mainly argued that the dependencies on scheme and volume of advantages created on offense or mitigated on defense derived a player’s margin of error on the court, and therefore their value. While this system was valuable, I noticed it was devaluing the players who do produce at a better rate with the help of scheme than the ones who produce worse and do not require assistance to create or mitigate advantages.

Since reading Avinash’s piece this past cycle, I think a more expanded way to frame the funnel framework would be by defining the Margin of Error On the Court as the application of tools (cognitive, athletic, and shooting) that lead to a positive basketball outcome regardless of scheme dependency. Advantage creation and mitigation are essentially a function of the application of tools and the efficiency of that application.

This change in framework brings more focus to the efficiency and success rate of a player versus the former idea of valuing a player for their lack of scheme dependencies or volume (a number that can be tied to usage/role). The former idea has value but overvalues high-volume flawed advantage creators and devalues players in smaller roles but are extremely efficient. When it comes to projection, having this idea in mind removes the bias of archetypes, especially from the lens of advantages.

This is another reason why I have valued role malleability highly, it captures the idea of showcasing mastery in a number of roles – mastery that only happens when the combination of cognitive, athletic, and shooting tools are applied effectively and lead to a good basketball outcome consistently.

I believe grading a player on the five tenets above gives a better projection of player quality regardless of the development context. This is how I would now evaluate players within the tiers of the funnel framework and each tier directly correlates to a tier of my draft board. Essentially a lot of the philosophy from the original framework still applies but instead of valuing it through an advantages lens, it’s about how well they grade against the 5 tenets of my draft scouting philosophy to take a more holistic approach.

Looking at it from a statistical lens, I think another good way to frame these tiers is through career VORP in the same way Spreadsheet Scouting does with his board. I plan to do my deep dive into different impact metrics to correlate these tiers statistically but for now, using these similar thresholds as a projection benchmark feels like a good approximation.

Pre-Conference Play 2025 Draft Board

Although there is still plenty of time for players to develop and regress to their averages throughout the draft cycle, this is my current assessment of the 2025 NBA Draft. Here, I rank my top draft-eligible players up to this point who I believe have the potential to reach the Green tier of the framework for their career in the NBA.

*Disclaimer: Working with the Mexico City Capitanes this year, I have excluded any prospects that form a conflict with my work and the Capitanes. I have also excluded players who will likely not declare for this draft.

Purple: All-Time Tier (45+ VORP)

• 0.1 Cooper Flagg

Players in this tier tend to check all 5 tenets I’ve laid out above. Cooper Flagg grades extremely well and is the epitome of my philosophy. Productivity at a young age, strong role malleability traits, positive skill intersections, high margin of error, Flagg’s got them all. At a young age, Flagg already has the traits that are tough to develop(size, motor, fluidity, feel, touch) and applies them effectively outside of his 3-point shooting. Even without making 3s at an efficient clip, Flagg’s margin of error is high with his size, feel, and motor which is evident in his ability to scale on and off the ball on both sides of the ball.

The reason why Flagg may not reach this tier would be his peak as an on-ball creator and a lot of this will do with his current offensive process. He creates his advantage by using his size and fluidity to get leverage but oftentimes, even when he has the opportunity to take advantage of that and get straight to the rim, he uses this window to take a midrange shot. This could be a lack of confidence in his handle counters to take it to the rim (mostly uses a spin move when he gets contained off the dribble). Flagg’s handle issue also shows up in his passing deliveries, passing off of a live dribble is still a work in progress so he often picks up his dribble to jump pass and expand his window to pass. The midrange reliance and handle issues could put more pressure on Flagg to be a better 3-point shooter to get to primacy; however, with the touch on midrange jumpers, free throw efficiency, and 3-point volume (7 3PA/100 at Duke), he’s got the chance to become a reliable 3-point shooter even in a problematic development context.

Dark Blue: All-NBA Caliber (30+ VORP)

• 1.2 Collin Murray-Boyles

Players in this tier also grade well against my tenets but there may be a smaller margin of error or limitations in role malleability that stop them from reaching the tier above but are still highly valuable players.

Collin Murray-Boyles is probably the clearest example of applying their tools to the max at a young age, with an emphasis on cognitive tools. We have over 40 games of Murray-Boyles having outlier production as a rebounder, finisher, playmaker, and defender for a 6’7″ player (10+ OREB%, 20+ DREB%, 60+ TS%, 15+ AST%, 2+ BLK and STL%). Playing in the SEC and producing at this level as a teenager is the epitome of functionally applying your tools to a high degree regardless of being undersized for a big. It’s a real proxy for how Murray-Boyles can impose his size, strength, length, feel, and hand-eye coordination even against older athletes. He has such a high margin for error because he produces at an outlier rate in so many areas of the game, but he truly shines on the defensive end. Processing rotations early, the length and coordination to protect the rim, the ability to flip his hips, footspeed, and upper-body strength to contain dribble drives all give Murray-Boyles a high degree of role malleability on defense.

Unlike Flagg, Collin Murray-Boyles is a lower-volume shooter and handler which has limited his role malleability on the other end, and plays more as a big offensively. While he’s shown a much larger sample of shooting and handling in HS and AAU compared to college, the sample is still limited. There has been an uptick in that volume in his sophomore year compared to his freshman year, but the lack of experience in those situations would need him to end up in a context that would allow him to play through inexperience as a handler and reach a higher outcome on the offensive end. Regardless, he’s shown a high degree of efficiency on non-rim 2s and good energy transfer on his shot since HS/AAU that the shot can be improved with range even without that desirable context. In my opinion, Murray Boyles’ has a high margin of error with the rest of his game that he can reach this tier of player operating as a high feel DHO big and exceedingly versatile defender.

Light Blue: All-Star Caliber (15+ VORP)

• 2.3 Dylan Harper
• 2.4 Derik Queen
• 2.5 Jeremiah Fears
• 2.6 Jase Richardson
• 2.7 Thomas Sorber
• 2.8 Darrion Williams
• 2.9 VJ Edgecombe

The light blue tier tends to have players that have even lower margins of error than the tiers above due to having more red flags in their profile but produced at such an outlier level in my other tenets that they can still provide all-star caliber production. Even with the red flags, the players in this tier can often reach secondary or tertiary creation with varying degrees of role malleability on defense.

Dylan Harper has shown he can be an elite driver with his acceleration, size, rotation in tight spaces, and feel but he’s struggled with his midrange efficiency since HS/AAU. He’s got mediocre initial burst and vertical explosion, which shows up on tape and in his defensive playmaking numbers against higher-level competition so he needs to be a high-level pull-up shooter to be a more rounded scorer in the league. These issues drop his margins of error but with how outlier his driving production is at his age, the shooting is something that can improve in a less-desired context considering he’s always shown a proclivity to shoot the ball with volume.

Maryland big man Derik Queen has shown high application of processing, touch, and scoring versatility so far. Even though he is closer to being a sophomore in age, Queen has one of the higher offensive projections in the class. His ability to scale on and off the ball offensively, hurt defenses with his touch, and shift defenses with his playmaking at his size give him a high margin of error. The application of tools is not as effective on the other side of the ball, where he’s not a true shot-blocking presence and will most likely be reliant on hedge and recover situations. Queen’s production would be dominant even for a sophomore and with this margin of error on the offensive end, he can reach All-Star level production in the NBA even with his lack of role malleability on the defensive end.

Jase Richardson, in addition to Cason Wallace and Johnny Furphy in years past, have been the exact types of players that have caused me to define the margin of error on the application of tools and their efficiency rather than grading them against the volume or the lack of dependency on scheme. Oftentimes, it’s difficult to have high usage as a freshman in some high-major programs due to a) upperclassmen monopolizing usage and b) getting the coach’s confidence to rely on a young player. Players like Jase Richardson are exceptionally efficient in their low-usage roles but often don’t have the leeway to do more even if they can. Being elite at the simple things does not get valued enough and it’s why I believe Richardson has a false ceiling.

He’s exceedingly quick at processing passes that are one rotation away, and ample burst and strong touch make him a multi-level scorer. Richardson has traits that are harder to develop and give him an immediate baseline as a closeout creator, but these same traits are why I think he can scale up with a higher offensive workload. So far those results in on-ball situations since his pre-NCAA sample have been stellar albeit on a small sample. There are some red flags with his size and athletic indicators such as rebounding and defensive playmaking against top competition, but Richardson has such a high margin of error with how great he is at the simple and the role malleability he’s shown in limited usage.

Green: Career Starter – Above Average Rotational Player (3+ VORP)

• 3.10 Noah Penda
• 3.11 Khaman Malauch
• 3.12 Noa Essengue
• 3.13 Labaron Philon
• 3.14 Johni Broome
• 3.15 Kam Jones
• 3.16 Kasparas Jakucionis
• 3.17 Anthony Robinson II
• 3.18 Tre Johnson
• 3.19 Ryan Kalkbrenner
• 3.20 Asa Newell
• 3.21 Ace Bailey
• 3.22 Miles Byrd

Finally, the players in this tier tend to have the production to be good NBA players but have clear limitations or flags in their profile that prevent them from reaching higher value. For example, this can be players with strong application of tools but there are specific areas in their game where the tools might be missing or are not effectively applied, causing a far lower margin for error. Due to these issues with their games, these players generally need to end up in a more favorable development context to attain this tier or higher

Kasparas Jakucionis has shown a strong intersection of touch and feel at 6’6″ but he has far lower margins of error to be a role-malleable creator considering his high turnovers, low at-the-rim rate, below-the-rim finishing, and difficulty shooting off-the-catch. Perhaps Jakucionis is such an elite shooter that his margins expand, but with these concerns, I have a tough time betting higher value solely on his intersection of touch and feel.

Ace Bailey is a player who is going to need to end up in a context with defined roles, getting him experience playing in a scaled-down role and working on quicker decision-making. Why? Bailey has been tremendous as a shooter at a young age, especially inside the arc but his feel is lagging to project him as a creator. His shotmaking at his size can be absurd but his low assist/usage ratio, high turnover rate, and lower rim rate give him far lower margins. This shows up on tape too, where Bailey often can hold onto the ball for long periods out of triple-threat situations, slowing down the offense and not capitalizing on a tilted defense. With the right context, these tendencies can be hammered out and you might be looking at a dynamic play finisher that can play multiple defensive roles.

Missouri guard Anthony Robinson II will be below 20.5 on draft night and has had great production in his first real year of usage. At 6’3 with great feel, touch, and length, he’s shown a great application of his tools with his high assist/usage ratio, OREB%, FTR, and STL%. Honestly from a statistical perspective, there’s not a lot to question in Robinson’s profile outside of his low 3-point volume and efficiency which could be a function of his role at Missouri because he shot a 0.42 3-point rate in 17U EYBL play.

He’s also not an outlier vertical athlete at his size with his < 1 BLK% and lower dunk numbers. These issues cause Robinson to have a lower error for margin, but the biggest gripe I have with him is when you turn on the tape. From a statistical lens, it looks like Robinson has a sound handle, but he’s got some issues with lifting from his handle into deliveries in live-dribble situations. Part of this is just general ball control as he has to expend more energy to keep the dribble alive and that often leads to high dribble points. Due to this, Missouri sets highway screens to get Robinson better lanes and he relies on a jail dribble to not have his handle tested. While I think the shooting can be developed with his shooting indicators throughout his sample, the handle gives a lower margin of error to be a creator in a less-than-favorable context. However, with the rest of his profile, he’s got the chance to be a strong starter with development.

The post 2025 NBA Draft Board (Pre-Conference Play) and some draft philosophy notes appeared first on Swish Theory.

1. Washington Wizards: Cooper Flagg, Duke

Cooper Flagg is a primary offensive option, one of the best defensive players in the country, leading a top ten team as a true 18-year-old freshman after being the highest-rated American High School prospect since… Anthony Davis? Yet somehow the discourse surrounding him to start the year has developed a negative tint. This is a special prospect, even if he doesn’t become the literal reincarnation of LeBron James. Two-way forwards do not grow on trees and their importance to playoff basketball cannot be understated. A foundation of Cooper Flagg and Bilal Coulibaly is an ideal starting point for building a roster meant for May and June. While Washington might not have your typical “star creator” on the roster they are not in a place to be drafting for context at the top of the draft. These kinds of players are worth their weight in gold, and the Wizards are running to the bank.

– Tyler Wilson

2. New Orleans Pelicans: Dylan Harper, Rutgers

Dylan Harper is a natural scoring creator with legitimate two-way feel; Dylan dices up defenses with ease. Harper consistently creates good looks for himself and his teammates, forces turnovers on defense, plays with a grab-and-go pace, and scores tough shots at every level. Dylan’s downhill explosiveness jumps off the page with incredible body control to decelerate, finish at the rim, draw fouls, and kick out to open shooters. Dylan looks like this draft class’ best primary halfcourt offensive engine who can create good looks for the team every time down the floor. With Zion, Herb Jones, and Trey Murphy flanking him in the frontcourt, adding Dylan Harper to the mix opens up the Pelicans’ options to build around this exciting walking bucket.

– Ryan Kaminski

3. Utah Jazz: Derik Queen, Maryland

The 6’10 Derik Queen will go to the Utah Jazz in the upcoming NBA Draft, and it’s easy to see why. His exceptional skillset makes him a highly coveted player for any team, but especially for the Jazz at this point in the draft. With a blend of feel, versatility, and impressive court vision, Queen can impact games in multiple facets. The ability to grab the ball off the glass and show off how comfortable he is as a ball handler in the open floor will be a headache for teams. Coaches can deploy him in delay actions, chin, dribble handoffs as the operator and trust him to make the right reads. The potential of having a pair as skilled as Lauri Markkanen and Queen could lead to not only fun for fans, but also wins.

– Larry Golden

4. Toronto Raptors: Collin Murray-Boyles, South Carolina

Despite having played this season in relative obscurity compared to other highly touted draft prospects, Collin Murray-Boyles has made significant developments to his game which should see him garner heavy consideration at the top of the class. During Murray-Boyles’ freshman campaign he played a more complementary role for South Carolina and thrived as a play finisher and opportunistic playmaker. So far this season, Murray-Boyles’ usage has been significantly scaled up and he’s gotten MORE efficient as a scorer. Of the 14 players in the country 6’7 or taller with over a 25% Usage Rate, Murray-Boyles possesses the highest True-Shooting% and the second-highest assist rate. What these statistical thresholds convey is Murray-Boyles’ presenting one of the most unique intersections of size and playmaking ability in the class. While I understand the Raptors’ faithful may have some consternation about Murray-Boyles’ fit with their resident jumbo-playmaker in Scottie Barnes, I believe this is a misguided thought for a team still seeking identity. At this phase of their team-building process the Raptors cannot afford to draft for fit and Murray-Boyles, in my estimation, is the best player remaining on the board.

– Ahmed Jama

5. Charlotte Hornets: Thomas Sorber, Georgetown

Charlotte secures their star big of the future with Thomas Sorber. A rotation of Mark Williams, Nick Richards, and Miles Bridges at center has resulted in three straight bottom-10 defensive seasons. Sorber’s 10.8% stock rate and +4.5 defensive BPM using physical dominance, feel, fluidity, and hand-eye coordination promise instant remedies. His athleticism, touch, and processing fit immediately as a play finisher with LaMelo Ball and as a dribble-handoff hub with Brandon Miller, while his massive offensive rebounding-stocks-assists integration (10.0% offensive rebound and 16.5% assist rates), tons of interior craft (78th percentile post-up efficiency), and ample shooting indicators dating back to high school (37.9% on non-rim twos and 71.6% on free-throws pre-NCAA) enable further pathways for development.

– Maurya Kumpatla

6. Portland Trailblazers: Ace Bailey, Rutgers

Portland is a team in an interesting spot, as they have a lot of intriguing younger players but lack a clear direction for their roster. Ace makes a lot of sense for them as arguably the best player available who also fits in nicely around some of their other core pieces with his length, shotmaking, and defensive upside. Portland would be a good landing spot for Ace as well, as they have enough ball handling and guard play to be able to ease him in offensively and let him work off the ball rather than overtasking him in a creator role.

– AJ Carter

7. Oklahoma City Thunder: VJ Edgecombe, Baylor

The OKC Thunder keep getting stronger, adding another top-10 pick to their already-loaded young core. As the No. 1 seed in the West, their defense has been a force, built on aggressively forcing turnovers through blocks and steals. Enter VJ Edgecombe, the only freshman to post a 5% mark in both steal and block rates—making him the perfect fit for this defensive juggernaut. Joining the Thunder gives him the ideal situation to showcase his defensive strengths while sharpening his offensive game. The Thunder’s guard room is stacked, but the chance to work on his shot with Chip Engelland and reduce driving turnovers in OKC’s spaced-out drive-and-kick offense should do wonders for VJ’s offensive development.

– Roshan Potluri

8. Brooklyn Nets: Jeremiah Fears, Oklahoma

Jeremiah Fears could lock up the Brooklyn Nets’ point guard position for the foreseeable future. The Oklahoma freshman has taken up huge usage (most in the SEC) despite only recently turning 18. There are few chances for heliocentric upside in this class, and Fears might have it with his dribble/pass/shoot potential and early returns. With patience, technique, and surprising strength beyond his years (he draws a TON of fouls), Fears will be a tough cover at any level. He’s not a pushover on defense, either, securing over two steals per game with limited fouling. The Nets could give Fears a long enough runway to see just how high that upside is.

– Matt Powers

9. Detroit Pistons: Asa Newell, Georgia

I’m aware this choice may feel somewhat controversial. Detroit was not a team I found terribly easy to draft for. I strongly considered Kasparas as an off-ball shotmaker alongside Cade, which I believe to be Kasparas’ ideal role. Newell is a guy I’m higher on than consensus, I buy the shooting relative to the numbers and the general scalability, which Detroit needs. They don’t have a tonne of long-term versatility within their core, and I buy Newell being able to slot in alongside whatever they want to do. He just feels like the exact type of player they need in the half-court and I buy Bickerstaff being a good coach for him, which matters.

– Joe Hulbert

10. Chicago Bulls: Kasparas Jakucionis, Illinois

It’s been a while since the Bulls have had a point guard who can make things happen in the halfcourt and create for their teammates consistently. Jakucionis is a 6’6 point guard with true star upside who flashes elite passing skills, pull-up shooting, and driving. In 177 possessions as the pick and roll ball handler he scores a 0.944 in PPP which is good enough for 64th percentile. The shooting off the dribble has been rock steady as he’s taken 36 and made 47%, even before arriving at Illinois it’s been a true strength of his which is a very desirable skill in the NBA. This would be a no-brainer pick for the Chicago Bulls.

– Larry Golden

11. Sacramento Kings: Liam McNeeley, UConn

A high volume 3pt sniper handoff extraordinaire who attacks closeouts with a myriad of tools, Liam McNeeley slides right into the Kings’ schemes. McNeeley brings 3-point shot versatility (C&S, pull-up, movement) and counters closeouts by attacking the rack looking to posterize anyone in his path. In Montverde’s loaded starting unit of Cooper Flagg, Asa Newell, Derik Queen, and Rob Wright, McNeeley would often end up the leading scorer as a floor-spacing play-finishing scoring valve who could heat up at any moment. Whether he’s backing up Malik Monk and Kevin Huerter or replacing them, McNeeley can fill a similar role playing off the strong screen DHO playmaking of Domantas Sabonis, whether De’Aaron Fox stays in town or not.

– Ryan Kaminski

12. San Antonio Spurs: Jase Richardson, Michigan State

Steering away from their affinity towards lengthy, athletic defensive-minded wings nets San Antonio one of the most well-polished offensive prospects in the class. Jase Richardson kills with productivity by extracting the most out of every touch; few can match his balanced shot distribution and monster offensive efficiency (74% true shooting and 3.7 assist-to-turnover ratio). His integration of versatile shooting, driving, and pristine decision-making gives him a high floor with tons of role malleability as a spot-up shooter and second-side creator. Still, Richardson has consistently scaled up production in games with higher doses of usage in a way that gives hope for untapped on-ball upside: he has a 74.5% true shooting in games with <15% usage versus 78.2% in games with >15% usage.

– Maurya Kumpatla

13. Atlanta Hawks: Tre Johnson, Texas

Atlanta already has several long-term pieces in place (Trae Young, Dyson Daniels, Jalen Johnson,  Zaccharie Risacher), and Tre Johnson looks the part of someone who has the versatility to complement all of them. He’s a ready-made shotmaker with high-end upside as a shooter, and he’s also shown flashes as a playmaker and on-ball defender. A fully developed version of Johnson would be a great fit in Atlanta as a do-it-all wing who can fit into a variety of roles while spacing the floor for Trae.

– AJ Carter

14. Oklahoma City Thunder: Noah Penda, Le Mans

In today’s NBA, you can never have too many dribble/pass/shoot wings, and that holds true even for the stacked OKC Thunder. Noah Penda brings the perfect blend of high feel, strength, and catch-and-shoot ability to thrive as a closeout creator in the Thunder’s offense. Where Penda truly stands out is on the defensive end, where he excels at creating turnovers both on the perimeter and as a weakside rim protector. This combination of skills on both ends of the floor should allow Penda to make an immediate impact for OKC, all while being under 21 for most of his rookie year.

– Roshan Potluri

15. Indiana Pacers: Johni Broome, Auburn

One of college basketball’s main storylines in the early season has been Auburn’s historically dominant start. Currently leading every major computer rating system while playing the most difficult schedule in the country, Johni Broome in many ways has been the catalyst for Auburn’s early-season heroics. Broome has oscillated between being the team’s defensive anchor and offensive fulcrum, similar to the previous season, while increasing his efficiency across the board. Broome’s all-encompassing impact on the best team in college basketball bodes well for his role in the league, where interchangeability is a necessary condition for reserve frontcourt players. And with Myles Turner’s impending free agency, the Pacers’ frontcourt composition is in a precarious state. Johni Broome could easily be integrated into a lineup with or without Turner, and coalesce with the other Pacer’s frontcourt players.

– Ahmed Jama

16. San Antonio Spurs: Kon Knueppel, Duke

The 19th-ranked offense Spurs double down on offensive bets here with Kon Knueppel, who is as pure of a shooter as you’ll find. He’s a lifetime 41% on threes, 84% on free throws, and 49% on non-rim twos across the EYBL and NCAA since 2020, making his shooting projection seamless. Knueppel pairs this shooting with high levels of ballhandling and feel, possessing a tight handle (9.7% turnover rate) with off-putting dribble cadences and being a quick processor (3.4 assist-to-turnover ratio), all of which coincide to make him an 88th percentile pick-and-roll ball handler in the country according to Synergy Sports. Athleticism and physicality are major concerns for Knueppel on both ends, but no team gives him the margins to succeed as the Spurs’ length and athleticism do.

– Maurya Kumpatla

17. Oklahoma City Thunder: Noa Essengue, Ulm

Noa Essengue will be 18.5 on draft night, making him an elite upside pick for the Thunder. With an established roster and a strong development staff, there’s no pressure for him to create in the half-court right away. Essengue has been a dominant force in transition, applying immense pressure on the rim with 34 dunks and a 0.77 free throw rate in the Basketball Bundesliga (25 games). At 6’10” with a reported 9’3.25” reach, Essengue is a pliable forward capable of both protecting the rim and stifling opponents at the point of attack. Despite being a teenager, Essengue shows great feel for the game which is evident in his 2% steal rate and 1.3 assist-to-turnover ratio. While his touch as a finisher still needs work, his 68.6% from the free-throw line and 30% three-point rate provide a strong foundation for improvement. With one of the NBA’s best shooting development staff, Essengue is well-positioned to refine his skills and develop into a special two-way player for the Thunder.

– Roshan Potluri

18. Golden State Warriors: Egor Demin, BYU

A quintessential Warriors player with his intersection of size and feel, if he were drafted this season Demin would be one of only four one-and-done freshmen above 6’7 to post above a 20% assist rate, the others being Anthony Black, RJ Barrett, Scottie Barnes, Cade Cunningham and Ben Simmons. Demin has acquitted himself extremely well exclusively running the point in BYU’s NBA-style offense. However, questions remain about whether he can sustain this production versus better competition, and how well his shooting will hold considering his mediocre priors. While these concerns are valid, what Demin’s demonstrated so far should portend well for a reduced role for a Golden State team in need of a two-way connector.

– Ahmed Jama

19. Houston Rockets: Khaman Maluach, Duke

The Rockets get one of the most impactful freshmen in the country at a relative value. Khaman Maluach has played a critical role in Duke’s nation-leading adjusted defensive efficiency while playing a remarkably mistake-free offensive role. Everything about Khaman’s game oozes physical dominance, starting with anthropometrics: he has 10-inch wide hands and a 9’8 standing reach, both of which would rank amongst the top of the league. Khaman is a force on the glass (15% offensive rebound rate), a wildly efficient scorer (81% true shooting), and he’s showcased an uncanny ability to both draw fouls (0.60 free throw rate) and limit possession obstruction (< 4 fouls/40 + 11% TO). He even demonstrates some semblance of touch, shooting 80% from the line. Khaman and his anti-foul rim protection style should seamlessly slot into Ime Udoka’s stifling defensive scheme. There are certainly pertinent concerns regarding Khaman’s feel, but this is the type of high-upside, immediate-production selection that the surging Rockets should be looking to make.

– Avinash Chauhan

20. Utah Jazz: Boogie Fland, Arkansas

Boogie is one of the best guards in this draft class. The burst off the dribble is truly something to watch while he’s on the floor. This is a guard who can create and get into the paint without a screen and show off his touch with his floater or make the reads necessary to keep advantages going. He’s sporting a 73-27 assist-to-turnover rate so far this season. Boogie is also shooting 36% from three while launching 60 of them. There aren’t many players in this draft who combine the ball handling, creativity, and self-creation upside as Boogie. This is the best available pick.

– Larry Golden

21. Brooklyn Nets: Labaron Philon, Alabama

Philon is the most “gadget-y” player in the class, and that’s why I love him in a backcourt next to earlier pick Jeremiah Fears. His game isn’t perfect – he needs to clean up his catch-and-shoot technique and have more anticipation for passing reads – but is consistently a plus across skills. He has not gotten a chance to show off his pull-up shooting as more of a connector in the Alabama system, but still can juice their offense which is nearly ten points better with him on. His positioning overall is elite, making him a threatening defender and able to clean up easy transition looks. If he can build on his scoring (he remains highly efficient at 59% true shooting), Philon could provide a backcourt panacea to endless problems.

– Matt Powers

22. Orlando Magic: Kam Jones, Marquette

Orlando is ready to contend. Their biggest need is a pull-up three-point sniper who can score and run some offense to pull defenders away from Franz and Paolo. In walks Kam Jones, arguably the best college player in the country. Averaging 20 PPG with a 4.2 A/TO his senior season while hitting 38% on six 3PA over a four-year college career sample size, Kam may provide the instant floor-spacing spark Orlando’s offense so desperately needs.

– Ryan Kaminski

23. Orlando Magic: Donnie Freeman

Donnie Freeman is a strong big wing who brings two-way impact because he can score, rebound, defend, and hit the open three. Freeman shows promising touch indicators like high FT% for positive shooting development. The highest ceiling guards on the board were Ben Saraf, who makes incredible highlight passes, and Nolan Traore, who attacks gaps with quick burst, flashes connector tendencies, hustles defensively, and has flashed the pull-up shot on rare occasions. But, neither Saraf nor Traore have been a consistent 3-point shooter. For a contending team targeting good basketball players this late in the draft who can quickly contribute and space the floor, the strategy taken was finding high-floor reserves who can fill a 6th-9th man slot in the rotation with the potential to fill in as starters when called upon. While both guards have higher potential ceilings, hoping rookies develop a skill they don’t currently show on a roster where the opportunity to do so is limited is a tough situation for them to succeed.

– Ryan Kaminski

24. Brooklyn Nets: Ben Saraf, Ulm

Ben Saraf burst onto the first-round radar with his MVP performance at the 2024 U18 Euro Championship. His most obvious strength is his size/feel: he’s measured at 6’5 without shoes and a 6’7.5 wingspan, with a certified highlight reel of passing flair and abrupt steals to boot. While the shot hasn’t quite been falling this year, Saraf has a 33% assist rate and 2.7% steal rate while leveraging his size en route to a 5.4% offensive rebound and 1.1% block rate. And he’s doing this as the unquestioned engine of a surprisingly great Ratiopharm Ulm team that’s currently 9-2 in the Eurocup. Saraf has drawn comparisons to former Ulm PG and current Long Island Net Killian Hayes, especially as a fellow lefty, but this is aesthetic bias personified: Saraf is far more turnover avoidant while showing an ability to make open catch-and-shoot threes (46% open 3P% vs 27% open 3P% for pre-draft Killian). There are clear athletic and shooting concerns with Saraf, but productive teenagers leading productive teams are a dime a dozen. Saraf could be THE tank commander for the Nets as they Dive (in the standings) for Darryn or Lose for Booz(er).

– Avinash Chauhan

25. Brooklyn Nets: Darrion Williams, Texas Tech

Willams was an easy pick for me here, even despite being older at 22 on draft day. He is extremely productive, #6 in Box Plus-Minus in the NCAA. He can shoot – a career 40% three-point shooter on 6 attempts per 100 possessions and 86% from the line on 167 attempts. But more importantly, he has shown his passing has more upside than initially displayed his prior two seasons, now up to 5.2 assists per game compared to only 2.0 turnovers. Despite not being the fleetest of feet, he contributes everywhere, getting some boards, some steals, some blocks with his high feel for the game. The Brooklyn Nets cannot pass up someone who can grease the offense from the wing (Darrion is 6’6”, I should mention) while proving through his production he can hang in athletically.

– Matt Powers

26. Dallas Mavericks: Nolan Traore, Saint-Quentin

The Mavs need blue-chip young talent. The Luka-to-Lively connection should be a permanent fixture of Mavs basketball for the next decade, but beyond that tandem, there is a real lack of youthful upside on the roster. Nolan Traore has had a rough start to his season in a surprisingly large role for a teenager with Saint Quentin, but the talent is untenable. He is a walking paint touch with NBA-level athleticism at the guard spot. His ability to defend the point of attack and create out of the pick-and-roll pairs well with Luka both on the court and while he sits. The shot will need to come around, but at this point in the draft that is a bet worth taking.

– Tyler Wilson

27. Memphis Grizzlies: Tahaad Pettiford, Auburn

Orlando desperately needs more guard creation to relieve pressure from its offensive stars. Pettiford brings that needed offensive juice. He shoots efficiently from deep range off of the bounce, breaks defenses with his speed, and finds his teammates for open shots. Point guards of his size always face a challenging climb to the NBA, but Pettiford’s advanced offensive toolkit and defensive playmaking on Orlando’s roster of giants bode well for his chances.

– Ben Pfeifer

28. Los Angeles Clippers: Nique Clifford, Colorado State

Nique Clifford feels destined to be a Clipper. He’s an older prospect who should be ready to compete on both ends of the floor from the start of training camp. He has had a larger offensive role this season, but that is not his sell as a prospect. Clifford is a grinder on both ends of the floor, an above-the-rim athlete who knows where to be and when to be there. Statistically, his projection as a shooter is a bit murky (68% from the line and  35% from three for his career), but his comfortability in the midrange and shooting over contests is encouraging. For a hard-nosed, defensive-minded team led by two high-usage stars, Clifford is an easy plug-and-play fit.

– Tyler Wilson

29. Boston Celtics: Hugo Gonzalez, Real Madrid

Gonzalez would add another defensively slanted wing into the rotation, something they’ll never complain about. He’s defended at a positive level for stretches throughout his Euroleague play this season, imposing his will as a point of attack and low-man defender. Boston will have no problems waiting for Gonzalez to tap into a passable level of offensive impact, and Gonzalez fell too far for his talent level.

– Ben Pfeifer

30. Utah Jazz: Rasheer Fleming, Saint Joseph’s

Fleming is a 6’9 forward who is showing signs of being able to stretch the floor from three making 39% on 53 attempts in 12 games. Not only is he able to shoot it, but he also has enough handle to attack closeouts and go finish at the rim with force and even finesse with his athleticism. Fleming is still only 20 years old and provides a lot of intrigue with his versatility on both sides of the ball. He currently leads his team in stocks with 41 total (22 steals, 19 blocks). Picking Fleming at the 30th pick is a win.

– Larry Golden

31. Boston Celtics: Rocco Zikarsky, Brisbane

32. Charlotte Hornets: Ryan Kalkbrenner, Creighton

33. Minnesota Timberwolves: Miles Byrd, San Diego State

34. Detroit Pistons: Will Riley, Illinois

35. Charlotte Hornets: Jacob Cofie, Virginia

36. Toronto Raptors: Chaz Lanier, Tennessee

37. Dallas Mavericks: Anthony Robinson II, Missouri

38. Brooklyn Nets: Danny Wolf, Michigan

39. Washington Wizards: Alex Karaban, UConn

40. Indiana Pacers: Flory Bidunga, Kansas

41. San Antonio Spurs: Yaxel Lendeborg, UAB

42. Chicago Bulls: Tomislav Ivisic, Illinois

43. San Antonio Spurs: Walter Clayton Jr., Florida

44. Oklahoma City Thunder: Xaivian Lee, Princeton

45. Los Angeles Lakers: Igor Milicic Jr., Tennessee

46. Golden State Warriors: Juni Mobley, Ohio State

47. Los Angeles Lakers: Adou Thiero, Arkansas

48. Cleveland Cavaliers: Bogoljub Markovic, KK Mega

49. Atlanta Hawks: Jamir Watkins, Florida State

50. Washington Wizards: Bennett Stirtz, Drake

51. Washington Wizards: Dink Pate, Mexico City

52. Charlotte Hornets: JoJo Tugler, Houston

53. Orlando Magic: Jalil Bethea, Miami

54. Dallas Mavericks: KJ Lewis, Arizona

55. Memphis Grizzlies: Tucker Devries, West Virginia

56. New York Knicks: Drake Powell, UNC

57. Houston Rockets: Max Shulga, VCU

58. Orlando Magic: Otega Oweh, Kentucky

59. Cleveland Cavaliers: Milan Momcilovic, Iowa State

The post 2025 NBA Mock Draft 1.0 appeared first on Swish Theory.

Interview with Preston Fowler, Sebastian Wilkins, and Ebuka Okorie from Brewster Academy

Preston Fowler

Q. Preston, are there any current or former pros you model your game after?

Preston – “I wouldn’t say I model my game after a specific person, I’d call myself pretty unique.”


Q. I really liked your defensive instincts and the 3pt shot, 4 blocks by my count last night. Where does that come from, do you take pride on the defensive end like that?

Preston – “Yeah, I would just say I don’t want to let anybody get any easy buckets. I pride myself on not letting anybody score, because in the past I’ve been called a lazy defender, so I would just say I just have to do what I have to do.”

Q. So you’re off to James Madison, what led to that decision?

Preston – “I would just say it was a very family atmosphere. As soon as I got on campus it just felt like home. So it was a place I wanted to be a part of.”


Q. Do you have any other skills that you’re trying to work on over the coming years?

Preston – “I would just say definitely my ball handling. My ball-handling, that’s a big part of basketball, so as soon as I get that under wraps, I should be good to go.”

Sebastian Wilkins

Q. Sebastian, I actually caught your game as the NBPA Top-100 Camp, you were explosive downhill, moving fast, do you pride yourself on using your athleticism and do you base your game off any former or current pros?

Sebastian – “I wouldn’t say I base my game off anyone, I just like playing in transition, running the floor, hitting the open shot, getting a lot of easy shots, and just playing with high intensity and great pace.”


Q. Any skills you hope to continue developing over the coming years?

Sebastian – “I’ve been shooting really well over the summer, so I’m just going to continue trying to grow in that and work on my handles.”


Q. You’re mulling over a few different offers like Florida State, Alabama. Are you leaning any certain way? What’s going into that decision?

Sebastian – “Well, just like who communicates with me the most and gives me like a family aspect, and who really wants to see me develop and grow as a player and as a person, that’s really going to help me lead to my decision.”


Q. Are there any hobbies that you have outside of hoops?

Sebastian – ”I be playing the game a lot with my friends back home, I’m just like a very friendly person. I like hanging out with my family and stuff, just spending time with them.”

Ebuka Okorie

Q. Ebuka, I really like your decision-making out there, your patience, your jump shot. Are there any players you steal moves from or model your game after?

Ebuka – “Yeah, I just like watching top guards like Kyrie Irving and Steph Curry, obviously. I also like watching just any All-Star guards.”


Q. You’re off to Stanford, what led to that decision?

Ebuka – “It’s a really good school in terms of academics and obviously basketball, so I just felt like it was the best fit for me.”


Q. I really liked the patient decision making, your ability to read the floor. How would you describe your mindset when you’re in the game?

Ebuka – ”I’m just playing to win and just help my team however I can to just get the win.”


Q. What kind of skills are you trying to develop and add to your game over the coming years?

Ebuka – “I’m just trying to develop all parts of my game. Getting stronger, quicker, just like all parts of my game, just still working hard.”

Q. How would you all describe yourselves as teammates off the floor?

Preston – “I would say we’re all great teammates. We all hang out outside off the court. We all hangout around campus. We all talk like friends would.”

Sebastian – “These are my brothers. We communicate off the court. We all make like jokes about each other, we all like communicate, and that’s why we play so good together in my opinion.”

Ebuka – “Yeah, I’d say like we’re just around each other all the time, and our chemistry just keeps going up every single time, every day.”

Q. One last question. Your teammate, Dwayne Aristode, wasn’t able to make this trip; he’s dealing with an injury. How would you describe him as a teammate and a person?

Sebastian – “He’s a dawg. He plays with a lot of aggression. He just brings like a winning aspect to the game.”

Preston – “I would say the same thing. It makes our job definitely a whole lot easier. He always wants to guard the best player on the court, which is a good thing at times, and he’s just good to be around.”

Ebuka – “Yeah, obviously he’s a great player. He’s also a great teammate, like he’ll pick us up like if we’re having a bad practice or something, he’s always here for us.”

2024 Sunshine Classic Standout Players

Brewster:
Sebastian Wilkins
Preston Fowler
Ebuka Okorie
Antonio Pemberton
Kilyan Toure

LuHi:
Kayden Mingo
Dylan Mingo
MJ Madison
Nigel James
Nico Onyekwere

MVA:
Kayden Allen
Dante Allen
CJ Ingram
Trent Sisley
Dhani Miller
Hakeem Wicks

Orangeville:
Harmon Hailemichael
Sergio Corta
EJ Horton
Lukas Jendrusiak
Isaiah Lukusa

Sebastian Wilkins, Dante Allen, and Kayden Mingo lived up to the hype as highly touted prospects, likely creating the most winning impact for their teams on both ends of the floor.

Ebuka Okorie, Kayden Allen, and Nigel James popped out with their respective decision making, passing chops, and tough shot making at the rim and on pull-up jumpers, with decisive feel and defensive instincts leading to routine winning plays.

Preston Fowler, CJ Ingram, Trent Sisley, and Dylan Mingo impressed by flashing athleticism and two-way impact.

Harmon Hailemichael hardly played, but stood out as the most impressive potential prospect on Orangeville.

Kayden Allen possesses an incredibly clean jump shot 3pt and middy pull-up, the smoothest shooting stroke from the weekend.

Ebuka Okorie’s crafty finishing at the rim, decision making feel running the show, splashy pull-up 3pt range, anticipation jumping passing lanes for steals and timing up blocks for turnovers deserves to be highlighted.

Nigel James put on a show making highlight after highlight in the marquee matchup between LuHi & Montverde, penetrating the paint with ease, dropping no look dimes, hustling to force turnovers, and converting tough shots at the rim and beyond the arc.

2024 Sunshine Classic Scouting Reports
with Film + Notes

Brewster Academy (NH)

#2 Ebuka Okorie (Stanford)
6’2″ Guard 2025

Incredible decisonmaking feel
Crafty finisher around the rim
Real two-way impact forcing turnovers
Clean Pull-Up and C&S 3pt jumper rhythm shooter
Great vision executing halfcourt offense finding open teammates
Willing passer giving up good shots for better shots
Defensive instincts timing up steals and blocks

19 PTS – 3 AST – 1 REB – 2 BLK – 8/11 FG (26 MIN)
vs. LuHi

Crafty finish up-and-under hanging in the air at the rim
Soft touch finger roll high off the glass
Good body control deceleration
Tough contested finish at the rim with soft touch
Nice block timing
Crafty finishes all around the rim all game long
Up-and-under reverse
Beats buzzer through contact for tough finish at the rim with defender draped all over him and no foul called

15 PTS – 6 AST – 3 REB – 4 STL – 3/7 3P – 5/10 FG (29 MIN)
vs. Orangeville

Good anticipation on Steal
Smooth stroke pull-up triple
Patient decision making, good feel and decision to shoot of the handoff
Unselfish pass from good to shot to great shot in open corner shooter
Smooth C&S 3 off screen, playcall seems to be named “leg”
Nice decision dumpoff pass

#11 Sebastian Wilkins
6’7″ Forward (2026)

Fluid Big Wing Scorer
Long Versatile Defender
Active Rebounder
Strong Play-finisher
3pt shooter in pull-ups and C&S
Makes good decisions connective passer
Soft touch finishing at the rim
Runs the floor hard in transition

8 PTS – 9 REB – 1 BLK (27 MIN)
vs. LuHi

Soft touch finish, nice reverse at the rim, times up defensive board next play

22 PTS – 5 REB – 1 AST – 2 STL – 8/13 FG – 4/6 3P (27 MIN)
vs. Orangeville

Drills Pull-Up 3
Nice anticipation steal on ball at point of attack defender into a pateint eurostep defcelerating footwork on drive, draws foul
Drills C&S 3 in semi-transition
Smooth stroke shooter drills pull-up 3
Nice find hitting cutter with assist
Transition slam
Strong finish outmuscles opponents down low out of BLOB set

#13 Preston Fowler (James Madison)
6’7″ Forward (2025)

Tall 3pt Shooter with Relocation Off-Ball Gravity
Great Defensive Instincts
Active Hands Deflections
Help-side Shot Blocker
Breaks up passing lanes for steals
Soft touch putbacks and post moves scoring near the rim
Playfinisher who runs the floor hard in transition
Versatile Defensive Forward who can screen, dribble, pass, shoot, sprint

13 PTS – 3 REB – 2 AST – 1 BLK – 1 STL – 5/12 FG (27 MIN) (4 blocks by my count)
vs. LuHi

Big strong block
Good active hands for deflection
Racks up 2 block in one possession, nice defensive instincts
Soft touch putback at the rim, good timing on rebound
Clean C&S 3pt jump shot in semi transition

8 PTS – 7 REB – 1 STL – 3/8 FG – 2/6 3P (30 MIN)
vs. Orangeville

Times up tip-in rebound in traffic
Attacks closeout, draws foul on the floor
Drills C&S 3
Makes Deflection next play
Impressive move – Strong rebound, power dribble, spin hook shot down low
Good idea to throw alley oop lob, just mistimed with teammate
Misses gamble for steal, gives up dunk
Picks up loose ball and finds teammate in transition

#23 Kilyan Toure (Iowa State)
6’3″ Guard (2025)

Scorer 2-Guard, Playfinisher
C&S 3pt Range Shooter off-ball gravity
Active hands ball pressure wreaking havoc, creates a lot of deflections
Clean finisher at the rim
Middy pull-up flashes

9 PTS – 5 REB – 1 AST – 1 STL – 1 BLK – 1 3PM (25 MIN)
vs. LuHi

shows fundamental footwork in a strong postup, draws foul
finishes clean at the rim in traffic

7 PTS – 3 REB – 6 AST – 1 STL – 1 BLK (21 MIN)
vs. Orangeville

forces a steal at point-of-attack
swishes the middy fadeaway after driving into the paint
strong sequence forcing a steal and finishing strong through contact for an AND1

#0 Antonio Pemberton
6’1″ Guard (2027)

Incredible defensive instincts ball hawk
Pull-up and Movement 3pt shooter off screens
Hustles for loose balls, rebounds, deflections
Attacks closeouts with shot, pass, drive when available
Point Guard traits looking for open teammates running the floor

10 PTS – 6 AST – 3 STL – 2 3PM (16 MIN)
vs. LuHi
takes smart charge
converts a lefty finish on the strong take through traffic
drills a splashy pull-up triple
drills the clean buzzer beater 3 C&S movement shooter 3pt shot off screen

3 AST – 5 STL – 1 REB (10 MIN)
vs. Orangeville
credited for 5 STL in 10 MIN!
brings good hustle leading to a steal diving on the floor for the loose ball
drawing a foul
grabbing the board in traffic

6’9″ Forward (2026) #10 Ater Bol meen shows nice gliding eurostep footwork vs. LuHi

6’2″ Guard (2026) #1 Darien Moore drills the C&S triple, hits a smooth FLOATA, makes a big block at the rim vs. Orangeville

6’5′ Guard/Forward (born 11.23.08) #4 Giannis Odzebe makes the connector extra pass in transition, nice vision and passing flashes on the drive baseline and jump pass corner kick potential assist vs. Orangeville

6’4″ Guard (2025) #22 Jack McMahan drills 3pt shot in transition vs. Brewster
6’8″ Forward (2025) #12 Nnadulu Noble forces a steal and finds Ebuka on fast break

Long Island Lutheran (NY)

#4 Kayden Mingo (Penn State)
6’3″ Guard (2025)

Downhill decelerating body control draws fouls attacking the rim
Soft touch floaters and finger roll finishes in the paint
Knockdown 3pt shooter on rhythm Pull-Ups and C&S
Drive and kick vision
Willing to sacrifice body to take charges
Times up digs for deflections
Nice handle maneuvering through defenses

10 PTS – 1 STL – 3 REB – 5/12 FG (28 MIN)
vs. Brewster
Soft touch Floater
Decelerating finger roll, nice touch

15 PTS – 3 REB – 3/8 3P – 5/12 FG (32 MIN)
vs. Montverde
Wild 3rd quarter scoring sequence with a bucket, a pull-up transition 3, and a C&S 3 in a shootout practically playing horse with Kayden Allen

#5 Dylan Mingo
6’5″ Guard (2026)

Defensive instincts jumping passing lanes for steals
Strong north-south attacks into the paint
Draws fouls with downhill drives at high volume
Soft touch bump-and-finishes near the rim
Paint-and-spray 3pt kickout Vision
Attacks closeout/screens with stampede half step decisive advantage
Good handle weaving through traffic
C&S 3pt range shooter

14 PTS – 8 REB – 2 AST – 8/10 FT (31 MIN)
vs. Brewster
Strong take to rack, draws foul
Bump and Finish AND1 FLOATA draws foul

14 PTS – 5 REB – 4 AST – 2 STL – 5/11 FG (29 MIN)
vs. Montverde
Off screen, attacks defender with half step advantage driving through paint for reverse
C&S 3 off scramble play
Nice take to the rack, soft touch finish

#10 Nigel James (Marquette)
6’0″ Guard (2025)

Insane start-stop change of pace deceleration brakes acceleration gas pedal body control
Smooth finisher on tough shots at the rim
Clean 3pt range pull-ups and catch-and-shoots
Great handles attacking while running the offense
Incredible vision and playmaking chops finding playfinishers initiating the offense as a scoring creator
Impactful two-way feel forcing pick six turnovers turned layups

12 PTS – 4 AST – 3 REB – 1 BLK – 1 STL – 4/10 FG (31 MIN)
vs. Brewster
Tough AND1 finish at the rim, small guard finishing among the trees

17 PTS – 5 AST – 3 STL – 7/14 FG – 2/6 3P (31 MIN)
vs. Montverde
Sick behind the back pass driving baseline slicing up defense to big man Nico underneath the rim
Another nice dish tough pass through traffic to cutter baseline
Impressive change of pace, keeps attacking after denial until finds the gap
Jumps pass for pick-six steal layup
Smooth Pull-up 3, follows shot up next play with a steal and breakaway layup
Impressive start stop body control, hits the breaks on the drive and finishes clean

#13 MJ Madison
6’9″ Forward (2026)

Explosive mover
High-flying vertical gravity athleticism
Good defensive instincts using height/length effectively without fouling
Active rebounder and defender with footwork, timing, and contests
Quick first step burst to attack closeouts
Flashes midrange jumper and solid finishing at the rim

8 PTS – 4 REB – 1 AST (23 MIN)
vs. Brewster
Explosive verticality, gets up for alley-oop slam
Times up offensive rebound putback with soft touch around the rim

6 PTS – 10 REB – 2 AST – 3/6 FG (32 MIN)
vs. Montverde
Blob set frees up Madison from Nigel inbound pass
Midrange jumper play-finisher
Snags pass out of air, twists and finish at the rim

#21 Nico Onyekwere (Florida State)
7’1″ Center (2025)

Brute force inside
Fundamental footwork on the block
Strong play-finisher at the rim
Soft touch finishing in the post
Good Rim-Protector with traditional big man defensive instincts, timing
Agile footwork and active hands sound switching on the perimeter

3 PTS – 3 REB – 1 BLK – 1 STL (16 MIN)
vs. Brewster


6 PTS – 7 REB – 1 STL – 3/6 FG (17 MIN)
vs. Montverde
racks up 7 rebounds in 17 MIN vs. MVA
goes up strong and finishes clean, power slams when left open, shows off a quick soft touch finish in the post on the block

6’11” Center (2026) #24 Omar Essam shows a patient finish vs. Brewster, keeps ball high to not get swiped. Adds 2 big blocks vs. Montverde

Montverde Academy (FL)

#2 Dhani Miller
6’3″ Guard (2026)

Defensive playmaker forcing turnovers with instincts, timing, active hands
Contests shots with hustle and fundamental closeouts
C&S 3pt range shooter
Connective passing finding open man, tossing alley-oop lob

8 PTS – 3 REB – 1 AST – 2 STL – 3/6 FG – 2/5 3P (17 MIN)
vs. Orangeville
Drills C&S corner 3 off kickout from Sisley, this hits another for back-to-back 3pt shots

6 PTS – 3 REB – 2 AST – 3 STL – 4/6 FT (25 MIN)
vs. LuHi
Tosses Lob to Sisley for Alley-Oop
Forces steal, finishes at the rim scoring off turnover, 4pt swing
Forces 2nd steal, good defensive instincts

#11 CJ Ingram (Florida)
6’6″ Guard (2025)

Impressive explosiveness, full court speed, bouncy hops athletic advantages
Super quick second jump for second chance opportunities, putbacks off own misses
Strong rebounds in traffic, good timing, reaches higher point than peers off the jumping advantage
Defensive instincts and anticipation creating pick-six steal + slam highlight 4pt swings
Downhill force attacking the rim on drives with 3pt kickout vision
Gets to the rim with ease, can improve finishing
Clean shooting touch drilling pull-up 3pt shots
Solid handle and playmaking vision adding up to good scramble plays with dribble, pass, and shoot

13 PTS – 11 REB – 2 AST – 1 BLK – 6/13 FG (22 MIN)
vs. Orangeville
Pick-six Steal + Slam athleticism, instincts, anticipation
Strong Rebound, gets up high hops, strong putback
Drills pull-up 3

15 PTS – 11 REB – 2 STL – 2 AST – 6/14 FG (32 MIN)
vs. LuHi
Attacks rack strong, misses contested shot but quick second jump putback
Quick first step burst, tough finish soft touch over two defenders driving right
Good drive-and-kick
Another big rebound, flys up higher than peers
Nice feed entry pass to post
Smart pumpfake, attacks closeout, spins and hangs in air. Misses shot but second jump quick puts back own miss and draws the AND1 foul
Another big man rebound
Strong finish inside
BLOB Alley-Oop layup good timing and hops

#12 Trent Sisley (Indiana)
6’8″ Forward (2025)

Good all-around basketball player
Solid Play-finisher at the post and running the floor
Attacks closeouts with the dribble and pass
Nice fundamental postup footwork and finishing moves
Defensive instincts jumping passing lanes, ball denial active hands deflections
Times up rebopunds in traffic
Nice touch around the rim and in the paint
Connective passing hitting the open man
Good decisionmaker makes the right winning plays on both ends

10 PTS – 6 REB – 4 AST – 2 STL – 5/7 FG (20 MIN)
vs. Orangeville
Easy take to the rack
Breakaway in transition
nice fundamental postup footwork, post move soft touch push shot
nice post move footwork, patient hook shot on block
good decision makes extra pass to Miller for corner 3
Jumps passing lane for steal to open second half
Lobs alley oop pass to Kayden Allen
BLOB post up lefty finish
finishes strong through contact for the AND1 at the rim

8 PTS – 7 REB – 3 AST – 1 STL – 4/9 FG (32 MIN)
vs. LuHi
throws down alley-oop
nice fundamental post move footwork and layup

#13 Hakeem Wicks
6’10” Forward (2025)

Off-ball Shooting gravity
Good Ball Instincts & Timing
Uses height/length effectively for rebounds and contests

5 PTS – 3 REB – 1 3PM (13 MIN)
vs. Orangeville

5 PTS – 2 REB – 1 3PM (9 MIN)
vs. LuHi

big putback over contact
C&S 3PM in both games

#21 Kayden Allen
6’6″ Guard/Forward (2026)

Smoothest shooting stroke of any player this weekend
Incredibly tough shot maker walking bucket pull-up artist
Slight fade on every jump shot release makes shot harder to contest/block
Runs the floor hard for outlet opportunities
Impressive passes threading the needle to open teammates with skips and drive-and-kicks
Two-way feel leading to pick-six slams
Vertical gravity playfinisher for lobs

17 PTS – 6 AST – 2 REB – 1 STL – 8/13 FG (19 MIN)
vs. Orangeville

Layup clean finish
Pull-Up middy contested
Stepback 3 and nice pass through defenders
Steal and reverse slam
Flys up for alley-oop jam
Sick pass cross court threading needle
Pull-up elbow Middy contesteed
Pull-up jumper
finish in transition
Drive-and-Kick into paint to corner 3pt assist

14 PTS – 6 REB – 4 AST – 6/13 FG (30 MIN)
vs. LuHi

Turnaround middy fadeaway
Stepback 3
Good feel look ahead pass in transition

#30 Dante Allen (Villanova)
6’4″ Guard (2025)

Cerebral two-way feel for game
Barreling strong downhill force who hunts contact
Stat sheet stuffer who makes the right play for the team
Quick trigger 3pt shot on pull-ups and catch-and-shoots
Forces turnovers with active hands deflections, timing, and instincts
Real winning impact on both sides of the floor as 3&D downhill force who can initiate halfcourt offense

17 PTS – 7 REB – 3 AST – 1 BLK – 2 STL – 6/9 FG – 2/3 3P (19 MIN)
vs. Orangeville

Nice instincts and timing jumping passing lane for steal
Forces steal and throws down breakway slam Pick-Six
Corner 3 off the drive and kick from Kayden
Fights for rebound, draws foul
fights for loose ball, strong take through contact, draws foul
Big block, CJ Ingram picks up loose ball for steal and makes nice dish back to Dante on the break for a 4pt swing
Steps into a pull-up triple
Forcing issue downhill with raw athleticism, a little reckless at times losing ball on turnovers or offensive fouls, but forces refs to make a call, draws a lot of contact and whistles

17 PTS – 2 REB – 1 AST – 1 BLK – 4/6 FG – 8/10 FT (32 MIN)
vs. LuHi

Good footwork finish at the rim
Strong downhill slam

Orangeville Academy (CAN)

#2 EJ Horton
6’2″ Guard (2025)

Smooth 3pt pull-up shooter
Active hands ball pressure deflections forcing turnovers
Pace pusher in transition

8 PTS – 4 REB – 2 STL – 2/8 3P (24 MIN)
vs. Montverde

6 PTS – 3 REB – 2 AST – 2 STL – 2/4 3PM (15 MIN)
vs. Brewster
Smooth stroke 3pt shot
Drills pull-up 3

#11 Sergio Corta
6’9″ Forward (2026)

Fundamental footwork near the rim
Solid finishing touch at the rim
Patient mover at his own pace
Active on the glass

4 PTS – 8 REB – 2 AST – 2/3 FG (24 MIN)
vs. Montverde
Draws foul from contest
Nice footwork through traffic for finish at the rim
Nice up-and-under finish in transition

4 PTS – 2 AST – 1 REB (21 MIN)
vs. Brewster
Good footwork, patient finish in transition

#24 Isaiah Lukusa
6’4″ Guard (2027)

Solid 3pt range on movement shots and standstill C&S looks
Tough shot creating advantage with footwork and body control

5 PTS – 1 REB – 1 AST (22 MIN)
vs. Montverde
Splashes movement 3pt shot

10 PTS – 5 REB – 4/5 FG – 2/3 3P (25 MIN)
vs. Brewster
Nice move, good footwork and ball control with the half spin pull-up middy
Drills C&S triple

#33 Harmon Hailemichael
6’11” Center/Forward (2026)

Imposing big brute inside the paint under the rim on both ends of the floor
Finishing strong at the rim with power slams
Timing up good contests, keeping arms straight up using his height, length, strengh effectively to contest without fouling
Thought he was Orangeville’s most impressive prospect despite not playing many minutes

2 PTS – 1 REB (13 MIN)
vs. Montverde

6 PTS – 2 REB – 1 BLK – 1 STL (16 MIN)
vs. Brewster
Powerful slam dunk after defender gambles for steal
Strong presence down low, draws foul through two defenders contact
Strong finish as roll-man in P&R off the nice feed splits defenders from the point guard Darius McGlashen.

#35 Lukas Jendrusiak
6’4″ Guard (2027)

C&S 3pt Range Shooter
Attacks closeout with dribble, counter move footwork, patience drawing fouls
Nice vision and passing execution through defenders

3 AST – 3 REB – 2 STL (18 MIN)
vs. Montverde

11 PTS – 5 REB – 4 AST – 4/8 FG – 2/6 3P (26 MIN)
vs. Brewster
Nice up-and-under AND1 finish
Corner C&S 3pt shot followed by a Wing C&S 3pt shot, forces timeout
Draws foul on the pumpfake up and under
Bullet pass down low post entry, no assist but big man draws the foul

6’10” Guard (2025) #10 Darius McGlashen nice drive and kick, strong take with good body control deceleration, draws foul on drive, active hands anticipation deflection breaks up the lob vs. Brewster

6’1″ Guard (2027) #30 Ryder English drills 2 C&S threes vs Brewster

Video from @BeyondTheRK on the scene and Film Clips sourced from League Ready
Stats via Montverde Academy & Nike EYBL

The post Scouting The 2024 Sunshine Classic appeared first on Swish Theory.

Impressive start for Kam Jones

Kam Jones is someone I’ve gone back and forth on in the past, but he’s been one of my biggest risers among returning players so far. He’s taken on a bigger load this season and in turn has been as good as any player in the country. What’s been really impressive about Kam this year is that he’s clearly not in a role best fit for who he is as a player, but he’s still been incredible in spite of that. 

Kam’s ideal usage is similar to how he played next to Tyler Kolek in previous years, as someone who can create some on the ball but also thrives as an off-ball weapon who is constantly moving and putting pressure on defenses with the threat of his shooting. This year Marquette has surrounded Kam with significantly less playmaking than in years past, and in turn he’s been really good in a lead creator role where he’s responsible for creating a ton of offense with the ball in his hands. This has caused his 3pt rate to plummet, going from taking 13.9 3 point attempers per 100 possessions the past 2 seasons down to just 8.4 3PA/100 this season.

Despite not getting to showcase one of his best skills as much this year, Kam has been better than ever. He’s averaging more than double the assists per game without increasing his turnover rate at all, giving him an outstanding AST/TO ratio of 4.4/1 so far this season. I still wouldn’t label him as a super advanced passer, but he’s quick with a good handle and doesn’t make many mistakes or bad decisions. Since prospects generally can’t control what team they go to or how they are used early on at the NBA level, this type of role malleability that Kam has shown is a really positive sign for his translation to the NBA level.

If you look over the course of his career Kam has proven that he can easily scale his usage on offense up or down depending on what his team needs. He’s extremely effective playing with limited dribbles while keeping the ball moving, but he’s also very comfortable stringing together dribble moves to create against a set defense. That combination of skills is really rare and valuable to find. Add in the fact that he has the strength and frame to compete on defense a little more than most combo guard prospects, and the package that Kam Jones brings to the table is really enticing – even for someone who will be 23 years old on draft night. He’s comfortably a first-round caliber prospect to me right now and I think you can make a strong argument for Kam to be a lottery pick in the 2025 class.  

Understanding Ace Bailey

So far this season there have been a lot of mixed opinions and commentary on Ace Bailey. He’s shown tremendous flashes as a tough shotmaker, but there have been a lot of people pointing out that he’s so reliant on these tough shots because he isn’t able to generate himself anything easier off the dribble due to a basic handle and lack of physicality. And sure, it’s definitely true that he’s struggled to create separation, rarely gets 2 feet in the paint off the dribble right now, and doesn’t do much as a playmaker. But I think it’s important to value all of the stuff that Ace does well rather than just focus purely on the areas that he isn’t currently good at, and consider how he would look in a different role.

He still has a ways to go in his development but Ace looks to me like someone we can project as a 6’9 athletic wing that is versatile defensively, contributes on the glass, can get out and run the floor, and has rare shot making ability for his size. Even if he’s never effective taking more than 2-3 dribbles at once, that’s still an incredibly valuable and useful player for any NBA team. So while I agree with most of the concerns most people have about Ace’s handle and viability as a creator, I think you can still justify ranking him near the top of the draft regardless of the on-ball limitations. One thing I’m looking to see from him the rest of the way is if he can up his 3pt volume, as his current rate of roughly 7 3PA/100 is solid but below what I’d like to see from a shooting prospect of Ace Bailey’s caliber. 

The Two Sides of Egor Demin

Egor Demin has been one of the more interesting players to monitor so far this season, as he’s looked extremely different depending on the competition he’s facing. Against low/mid-major teams such as UC Riverside and Central Arkansas, Demin has looked every bit like a top 5 pick. He’s gotten downhill off the dribble, shot it at a high level, showed some athletic juice, and looks like an incredible passer for a 6’8-6’9 guard. 

However, against high-major teams, it’s almost like watching a different player. Demin has struggled immensely to score against length and hasn’t been comfortable or confident enough to get to his spots in the same manner. There’s been a lot of instances in games against teams like Ole Miss and Providence where Demin is picking up his dribble and passing before ever creating an advantage, which has stalled the offense a bit. When he has tried to get into his bag off the dribble his handle has looked slow and sloppy. Even his passing ability has looked worse in these games, as he’s had a lot of turnovers trying to thread passing windows that just aren’t there against teams with higher levels of length and athleticism. Missing more shots against better defenses is natural and isn’t super concerning by itself over a small sample, but the way in which his creation impact has fallen off a cliff in these matchups is pretty worrisome. 

Ultimately Demin is still someone that I’m relatively high on due to the combination of size and passing as an 18-year-old and I do believe in his jumper, but it’s clear that we need to temper expectations of him as a creator until he starts to show he can produce against higher level competition. 

Other BYU Prospects

Outside of Demin, BYU has another pair of interesting potential prospects that I think are worth mentioning in Kanon Catchings and Richie Saunders. They are near polar opposites as players as Catchings is still very raw, but shows a lot of skills valuable to being an NBA forward. He’s about 6’9 with good length and covers ground at a high level on the defensive end, giving him a lot of potential versatility on that side as he fills out his frame and gets more disciplined. Catchings has also come out of the gates as a very high volume 3pt shooter (13.9 3PA/100), and while there has been mixed results the comfortability that he already has getting up jumpers as a 19-year-old forward is a very good sign. I talk about 3pt volume a lot, but it’s something I really value and in a lot of cases is better for projecting long-term shooting talent than just looking at 3pt%. Right now I think there are too many holes in Catchings’ game to be a 2025 prospect that I’m really interested in drafting, but he fits a valuable archetype as a projectable 3 + D forward and is someone to keep an eye on long term. 

Richie Saunders doesn’t share the high-end physical tools that Catchings has, but he’s just a very good basketball player who knows how to impact winning. Saunders’ game is built around really high level feel, motor, and processing speeds on both ends of the court which allows him to be a relatively mistake-free player who is constantly moving and making things happen. He’s really effective playing off the catch on offense and his combination of feel and quick hands leads to a lot of deflections on the defensive end.

Saunders is someone who both impresses a lot when I watch him and also has a really solid statistical profile. He’s averaging less than 1 turnover per game, is shooting around 40% from 3, finishes at the rim at a high clip, and has nice STL + BLK rates. The biggest swing skill for Saunders that I’ll be looking at the rest of the year is the shooting. He’s had a nice start from 3pt but prior to this year he’s been closer to an average shooter. With some of his athletic limitations he is likely going to need to be a definitively above-average shooter to be an NBA player, but if the shooting improvements are real I can see Saunders being a quality 2nd round target.

The Versatility of Labaron Philon

Coming into the year my main impression of Labaron Philon was that he was a really crafty offensive minded guard that can create offense with the ball in his hands. And while that’s certainly remained true, I’ve been impressed with how well-rounded his game is for a teenage guard prospect and his ability to contribute on both ends. He’s not an elite level defender but he’s shown the ability to stay in front of the ball and he has the length to defend both guard spots. He’s had some struggles fighting through physical screens, but otherwise he’s done a really good job of staying attached on the ball when defending in space and has already been tasked with guarding some really high-level college guards.

Offensively, Alabama has let Philon have chances with the ball in his hands but he’s also had to fit in as a role player playing next to one of the most established guards in the country in Mark Sears. Philon’s ability to fit in well with or without the ball in his hands has stood out, as he already has a lot of quality complementary skills while still being someone who can create when you put the ball in his hands. He makes quick decisions off the catch and is good at extending advantages against a compromised defense. Alabama has even used Philon as a guard-to-guard screener in actions with Sears at times, which might not apply to his NBA role but speaks to the versatility and willingness to play a role that he’s shown this year.

Labaron needs to add some strength and he hasn’t looked comfortable or been effective from beyond the arc this season, but he has good enough shooting priors and natural touch to where it’s easy to believe in the shot improving. Outside of that he already has a good foundation of skills in place. His ability to play on or off the ball while competing defensively gives him the makings of a really solid all-around guard who can fit into different roles effectively, while his ball handling and ability to break down defenses off the dribble still give him the creation upside you’re looking for in a lottery caliber guard prospect. I view Philon as a solid 1st round prospect with a chance to climb into the lottery if he shoots it better from 3 the rest of the year. 

The Adou Thiero Breakout

One of four Kentucky transfers to follow John Calipari over to Arkansas, Adou Thiero has taken a huge leap offensively this season and has been his team’s leading scorer so far. He can still be rigid with the ball in his hands and isn’t a natural handler, but he’s clearly figuring out how to leverage his athletic gifts to get to the rim and has developed the ability to make tough off-balance jumpers from 10-15 feet out. Thiero is also a pretty solid passer for an energy guy and knows how to keep the ball moving and make basic passing reads.

The glaring issue right now is the 3pt shooting, which has always been something Thiero has struggled with. He doesn’t have the smoothest release and will put up some bad misses, and is sub 30% from 3pt for his college career. He is pretty good at using his size and athleticism to cut towards the rim when teams sag off of him, but the lack of 3pt shooting is still an issue. The hope for him is that the touch he’s shown on some of the shorter mid-range shots he’s been good at this year can be expanded out farther to the perimeter. 

The main selling point for Thiero is that he’s an elite defensive prospect, equipped with a special combination of physical tools and motor. It’s not hyperbole to say that you would be hard-pressed to find a player who consistently brings as much energy on the court as Thiero. The athletic tools let him put the motor to effective use as well, as he has the verticality to make plays on the interior as a rim protector, the foot speed to guard down on the perimeter, and the strength to match up against bigger wings and forwards. 

Ultimately it would be hard to justify taking Thiero with a high draft pick right now with how bleak his 3pt shooting profile looks, but he still has more long-term upside to tap into and is someone I’d be happy to take later in the draft as is because of all the other stuff he does well. He has all the intangibles and tools you want in an athletic end-of-the-bench energy guy early on in his career, while still having a clear path to being a valuable piece if he continues in his offensive development and is ever able to even be passable as a jump shooter.

The post Early Season Scouting Notes appeared first on Swish Theory.

It’s no secret that NBA offenses have been improving year over year. We see teams consistently breaking through offensive rating records and this is in part due to offenses taking more efficient approaches to their shot diet. Teams are limiting the long midrange attempts they take while increasing the volume of closer shots at the rim and higher shot-quality three-point attempts.

The court is extremely spaced out which makes it difficult for defenses to cover ground and stay attached to their offensive counterparts. This enables players to have more space on their drives and get a more open shot at the rim, especially with how much NBA scheme is about engaging the tagger and drawing rim protectors away from the basket. Having multiple players who can create offense off of a closeout gives an offense more opportunities to attack defenses and derive these higher-quality shots within a 24-second shot clock. The culmination of these factors has resulted in 2-point shots achieving the same efficiency as 3-point shots in terms of points per possession.

With so much space to operate in today, primary creators can leverage their scoring tools and feel better than ever, and when advantage creators bring two to the ball, that means there’s a wide-open player somewhere on the court. While the value of high-level on-ball creators is undeniable, basketball is still a team sport at the end of the day. As important as it is to have great stars, supplementing an offense with better off-ball creation is how the best offensive teams continue to improve year after year.

Synergy, who tracks this for the NBA, defines spot-ups as possessions where the possession-ending event is a catch-and-shoot or catch-and-drive play. This could involve situations like catch-and-shoot threes, driving to the rim off a closeout, sidesteps or step-backs, or midrange shots created off the drive. One of the most straightforward ways to supplement NBA offenses is to consistently have five players on the court who can problem-solve against closeouts and leverage their tools in these situations.

Take a look at the roster construction of the NBA’s top offenses: at any given time, these teams consistently have at least four players on the floor who excel at dribbling, passing, and shooting at a high level. Teams like the Knicks, Celtics, and Thunder often have five players who can do this, and this truly maximizes the increased usage of spot-up possessions in the NBA.

Le’s dig into the data.

Going back to the 2017-18 NBA season, the average number of spot-up possessions throughout the league has marginally gone up yearly since then. In 2017-18, teams had 21.633 spot-up possessions per game. Now? That number has risen to 26.613 in 2023-24. That’s almost five (!) more possessions per game in seven years.

It’s not just the volume that’s increasing—over the past seven years, teams have also become more efficient at scoring on spot-up possessions.

Doing some basic regression analysis on the seven-season sample, we can see that there’s a strong positive linear correlation between spot-up volume and offensive rating.

The relationship between spot-up possessions and offensive rating can be described by the equation (line of best fit):

Average Offensive Rating=1.106(Average Spot-up Possession Per Game) + 85.53

This means that for every additional spot-up possession per game, a team’s offensive rating increases by approximately 1.106 points on average. Moreover, the R-squared value of 0.816 indicates that 81.6% of the variation in offensive rating can be attributed to the number of spot-up possessions, highlighting the strong connection between these two variables.

Logically, this aligns with the idea that having more spot-up possessions gives teams more opportunities to attack defenses and generate better offense. Essentially, spot-ups have become the fulcrum for NBA offenses in the war of attrition against NBA defenses. Framing the battle between offense and defense as a war of attrition, wouldn’t having five players who can attack off the catch in diverse ways challenge defensive personnel on a more granular level and create better scoring opportunities?

Let me take a step back and get into my nerd bag to reiterate what I mean. It’s a lot like how Team Avatar dismantled the drill attacking Ba Sing Se in Avatar: The Last Airbender (If you haven’t watched the show, please do yourself a favor and watch it immediately). Instead of relying on brute force, they exploited the machine’s structural weaknesses—Toph weakening the supports with earth bending, Sokka identifying the critical points, and Aang delivering precise strikes to bring it down. This is a lot like advantage creation and extending those advantages through closeout creation, having players who can attack off the catch in different ways allows an offense to pick apart a defense piece by piece, forcing it to collapse under pressure. (Skip to 2:04 in the video if you want a quicker explanation).

The NBA Draft…?

As much as scouting the draft is about analyzing the players, it’s just as essential to grasp the evolving trends of the league they’ll be stepping into.

For the remainder of this piece, I’ll focus on five 2025 NBA Draft prospects I value highly for their production and multi-faceted skillsets. What truly sets them apart is their ability to create offense off the catch. To thrive as a spot-up player in the modern NBA, a player must:

• possess shooting gravity to command defensive attention off the catch.
• have driving and handling tools to react to hard closeouts.
• have the feel to pass and extend the play into a higher-quality shot.

All five players in this piece have the building blocks for creating offense off of closeouts, but each brings a unique approach to the table. This diversity in how they attack off-the-catch adds layers to an offense, enabling it to exploit specific weaknesses in defensive matchups. For instance, some defenders may excel at guarding strength-based matchups but struggle with lateral quickness. A player who can attack a tilted defense with a quick first step allows the offense to capitalize on that vulnerability. In essence, variability in closeout creation amplifies the ability to target nuanced weaknesses of all five defenders on the court, giving the offense a distinct tactical advantage.

The Prospects

Now that we’ve explored the concept, let’s dive into the five potential NBA Draft prospects and examine how they leverage their unique strengths to create offense off the catch.

Burst: Jase Richardson (Michigan State) | 6’3″ Guard

The most obvious way to capitalize on a semi-tilted defense is speed: a player using their first step and acceleration to widen the gap in the offensive advantage. Jase Richardson is the perfect example of a guard who can do this, beating defenses off-the-catch with his speed in a low-usage role for Michigan State this year. Going back to AAU and his senior year of high school, Jase has had a lot of experience being in spot-up situations – his second most used offensive play type in both contexts.

His first step is good, but Richardson excels at accelerating and using sharper driving angles to create separation. His ankles and feet can take sharper angles on drives, reducing how much he curls away from the rim, and enabling tighter, shorter drive paths. Accentuated by the acceleration in his second and third steps, Richardson capitalizes on these traits to explode into his last stride on finishing attempts at the rim or get to the middle of the floor to hurt the defense with his touch.

He’s also adept at recognizing where the help is coming from and making the pass to the open man off of these drives. While defenders do give him attention from the perimeter, Richardson’s volume and efficiency as a 3-PT shooter have not been extremely high in the past. He’s shot 30% from the perimeter on a 30% three-point-rate between 17U AAU and his senior year of high school, however, it looks like Richardson’s 3-point shot is on the uptick with a three-point rate of 34.6% and 50% in a small sample of games (9 games) for Michigan State so far. As this shot improvement sustains, defenses will have to guard him tighter from the perimeter, enabling Richardson to leverage his burst even further on off-the-catch drives.

Strength: Noah Penda (Le Mans Sarthe Basket) | 6’7″ Forward

Another way to create off-the-catch is to use brute force to carve space and extend advantages. When a player has outlier strength, they can often effectively penetrate the shell of set defenses. Some players combine burst with strength and apply large amounts of force toward the rim on off-the-catch drives, making it burdensome for a tilted defense. On the flip side, some players use their strength to take a slower, methodical approach which gives them a larger window to make a play while carving space with their body. A strong processor can often use this larger window to leverage their court mapping as a passer, finding a high-quality half-court shot by extending the advantage. Noah Penda’s quick processing and strength paint a true illustration of how this creation works off the ball.

Penda wins with strength against tilted defenses, getting deep into the paint with his stocky frame and making plays off of two feet that maintain the flow of the offense. His patience shines in these reps where he often takes his time to let the play develop, attacking when the defense over helps and gives him an opening. Penda’s handle needs work but his margins on these drives are high with how much space he eats up on the court using his strength. The byproduct of his strength is that it enables him to attack set defenses off-the-catch well, reducing the threshold of how much shooting gravity he consistently needs to win on these drives. Regardless, in 14 games this year, Penda has shown he can be a good shooter off of two feet – he maintains balance and good elbow alignment in these stances which have shown up in his efficiency (37.8 FG%) and increased comfort to shoot 3-pointers (39% 3-point-rate). The issues with Penda’s shot come when movement is introduced, throwing his alignment and balance off and reducing the number of counters he can use as a shooter, whether that’s with stepbacks from the perimeter or his limited volume of off-the-dribble twos.

Change Of Direction: Xaivian Lee (Princeton) | 6’4″ Guard

Speaking of counters, an additional form of closeout creation is the art of using sleight of direction to problem-solve. The junior guard for the Princeton Tigers, Xaivian Lee is the team’s lead creator and pick-and-roll ballhandler where he slices up defenses with his elite change of direction on multiple planes. With how Princeton’s offense revolves around a philosophy of spacing the floor, constant motion, and having any of the 5 players on the court to exploit a mismatch, it can lead to a primary ball-handler like Lee playing in situations where he’s attacking closeouts consistently. Lee has great downhill pressure with his burst, but his elite trait is his combination of spatial awareness and change of direction. He has a great understanding of open space and where his limbs are relative to his body which enables him to determine easier scoring angles, throwing defenders off balance with how quickly he can change direction.

The initial idea that comes to mind with change of direction is moving the body across the transverse plane (east to west – turning and rotating), however, change of direction is also about being able to shake the defense with movement across the sagittal plane (north-south – acceleration and deceleration). Xaivian Lee is excellent at capitalizing on both of these aspects of change of direction, creating easier shots off-the-catch or collapsing multiple defenders and finding the open man on the court. Lee is also quite effective at creating separation off of step-backs and side steps, which gives him a high degree of optionality with direction. While he’s had a down year in overall efficiency with the increased offensive load in 11 games, Lee has always been a versatile shooter, especially on catch-and-shoot shots, which has meant that defenses have always had to respect his shooting gravity and react with strong closeouts. He has limitations as a finisher with his weight and strength as a 6’4 guard but with over 148 spot-up possessions in the past two years, Lee is still scoring 0.966 points per possession and 38% on his spot-up threes. Xaivian’s weight will be a major point of contention with his NBA upside, but his elite change of direction, processing, and shooting touch gives him a strong floor as an off-the-catch creator, especially next to the plethora of jumbo primary initiators in the NBA.

Functionality + Small Space Coordination: Labaron Philon (Alabama) | 6’4″ Guard

Good closeout creation can also come from players who are functional with multiple traits and extend advantages off of the dominance of their micro-skills. Alabama freshman Labaron Philon is a clear example of a player like this, maintaining possessions off-the-catch with a functional handle and his coordination in tight spaces. Philon has functional strength, burst, and touch but he wins by consistently keeping his dribble alive and navigating through a crowd.

Similar to Princeton’s offense, Alabama plays with a lot of space in the half-court with the intent to move the ball and attack off-the-catch. Alabama’s space gives a player like Philon the lane to get downhill against tilted defenses, but even when the court shrinks on the drive, he can problem-solve in those tight spaces to either find an open player or maintain the dribble long enough to find a shot for himself. The functionality Labaron Philon has in multiple areas allows him to be versatile with how he finishes inside the arc, whether that’s slamming his body into rim protectors to create separation at the rim using his strength or launching his patent floater against defenders that sag deeper into the paint. His ability to keep his handle alive gives him larger windows to process the defense and attack accordingly with his different functional traits.

Most of Philon’s issues come with the potency of his 3-point shot. Between his senior year of HS and 17U AAU, Philon has shot 35.9% on 150+ attempts but that has not translated yet in 10 games with Alabama where he’s shooting 24% on 5.4 3PA/100. Alabama’s offense is a good emulation of good NBA offenses today, and when you combine this sample with his senior year of HS and 17U AAU, he’s generating 0.912 points per possession on 149 total possessions even without an elite 3-point shot to fall back on. There’s a strong proof of concept that Philon can be an effective closeout creator and with the touch indicators in his profile, there’s a high likelihood that he can become a strong shooter off-the-catch.

Size + Fluidity: Cooper Flagg (Duke) | 6’9″ Forward

While there are plenty of other ways to describe creation off-the-catch, the last one I will be talking about in this piece is about being the ultimate tweener. The term tweener often has a negative connotation when it comes to a player, usually describing a player that is a jack of some trades and a master of none, excelling at no true position. Another way I have come around to using this term is to describe players that can be cross-match nightmares for defenses: a player that has the positional size to overpower smaller players and the fluidity to break down larger defenders.

If you’re following the NBA draft, it is unlikely you haven’t heard of the 17-year-old forward playing for Duke this year. Cooper Flagg gets his generational moniker from his premier defense in an abundance of roles and how developed his offense is for a player that young. Relative to age, even with some early efficiency issues, Flagg has excelled as a primary creator for the Blue Devils in 10 games so far this year. He’s still in the early stages of experimenting as an on-ball creator, but off the ball, Flagg has showcased that he is already a functional off-the-catch scorer.

Cooper Flagg can also be used as an example of a strength creator off of closeouts, where he’s bullied much older players with his size and functional strength, but it’s the intersection of size and fluidity that makes him so problematic for defenses to deal with. This intersection is an extension of strength creation where players can get lower than their defender and carve out space using their body as a lever. Where this differs from how a player like Penda creates off of closeouts, mass isn’t the sole factor in generating force against defenders, it’s the lever principle generating more force due to the size of the player and how low they can get on drives. Due to amazing shin angles and how low Flagg can sink his hips on drives, it extends the distance between where the input force is applied (Flagg’s shoulder against the body of his defender) and the fulcrum (Flagg’s hips) which generates even more force without requiring outlier mass on his frame. This allows Flagg to carve space regardless of the size of his defender consistently, enabling him to score inside the arc and spray passes when the defense sends help to guard him.

Flagg’s handle is still a work in progress as he can’t consistently pass off of a live dribble, but he uses jump passes to expand his passing windows and get a better mapping of the court.

Flagg’s efficiency woes at Duke have mostly come from his poor 3-point shooting, 22.2% on 6.9 3PA/100. A crucial part of closeout creation is the shooting gravity a player possesses, and while the efficiency has not been good, the volume he takes forces defenses to pay attention to those shots. Moreover, I believe he is due for some positive regression as the season progresses with how he’s shot in previous settings. 36% from the perimeter between his final year at Monteverde and 16U AAU on over 174 attempts, Flagg has been exceptional on spot-up threes where he’s shot 41.4% on 70 attempts in that same sample. As he grows stronger, the stability shooting off two feet should improve and accommodate for larger distances, enabling him to get stronger closeouts from the perimeter and leverage his traits off-the-catch.

Curtain Call

All five of these players have other skills that give them a strong baseline in the NBA, but their most formidable trait is how they create off of closeouts in different ways. Spot-ups are the fulcrum of NBA offenses because the quality, variability, and volume of this play type can often be the difference in the balance of an offense winning or losing the possession battle. Having a team with five players like this on the court who can attack the defense in varied ways captures the greatest strength of an elite offense: the constant exploitation of mismatches to create advantages on each touch a player gets within a team possession.

Stay tuned for my upcoming piece on the 2025 NBA Draft cycle, a companion article that will explore the other side of the NBA spectrum!

The post Closeout Creation: The Fulcrum Of NBA Offenses appeared first on Swish Theory.

So, this past year, I chose to write about a complement of players, ranging from lottery picks to undrafted free agents, all in various stages of development and with different expectations. I decided the best way would be to continue following these players as their stories in the league were told. There were eight different players I watched film on and wrote about in the past season, and while I continue to follow them, I’ll be adding five new players this season to the watchlist.

I want to capture a variety of teams, skillsets, and sets of expectations in addition to positions. The goal is to blend my expectations for the player with their progress, so while the way I choose to categorize their place in the league is subjective, how their team perceives them is also baked into this. Some show flashes and don’t play often despite opportunities being present, and that has to be accounted for. Conversely, a player who seems trusted in the rotation or empowered to take on certain responsibilities should be recognized as an endorsement of their talent.

So, nearly a quarter of the season, let’s check on how these first 10 players have come along.

Stars In The Making

Bilal Coulibaly

In a series where I focused on role players over rising stars, I didn’t expect to cover multiple players in this category. Yes, Bilal Coulibaly is the highest-drafted player on my list of 13, but few expected the 20-year-old to shift the conversation toward star capabilities so quickly.

Two weeks ago I wrote thoroughly on Coulibaly’s star rise in this league, so there’s not much need to elaborate further. However, I will leave you with this, so draw whatever conclusions you may.

We will check back on Bilal in detail later in the season.

Dyson Daniels

Here’s another unexpected addition to the star list.

After I wrote about Dyson last season, exploring his defensive upside and offensive limitations, Daniels became one of the centerpieces in the Dejounte Murray trade. All at once, his expectations and role changed drastically. He’s an every-night starter now with increased usage on both ends of the floor while also being an 8th overall pick reclamation project.

Daniels had his flashes in New Orleans but was buried on the depth chart and surrounded with similarly skilled wings. He fits their need in Atlanta as a long defensive force on the wings and has been thrown into the fire this year. He’s extinguished the fire defensively. My main question with Dyson scaling up on defense was the fouling relative to the event creation, and how he could stay competitive with primary matchups. He answered by turning into a lockdown cornerback pacing the league in steals with an elite block rate for wings. Enjoy some highlights from what may be the preeminent defensive wing in the league this year.

On the offensive side, there is a mix of good and bad. The usage has scaled up in a major way in addition to his increased minutes, though this is a reflection of a dire lack of offensive options in Atlanta compared to last year’s Pelicans. Last year, 21% of his offense came as the primary handler, dipping slightly to 19.4% despite Trae Young missing a game in Boston where Dyson became the de facto #1 handler.

Many of the same problems persist. He looks great as a connective passer and pinch handler, yet continues to struggle finishing at the rim. The floater is excellent as usual and the corner threes are going down while the above-the-break threes remain below 30% with questionable volume. What has been interesting to monitor is the drastic increase in screening usage.

Last year, New Orleans used Dyson as a ball screening option a mere 5 times across 61 games. That is up to 28 possessions in 25 games this year, and results so far are encouraging, as it opens space for his passing reads and floaters.

In New Orleans, offensive responsibilities were tougher to define for a young player trying to find his niche. Screen for that guy, cut off that guy’s drives, space for him, rebound for another. As a starter in Atlanta the first, second, and third questions are “How do you help Trae?”. Increasing screen usage will help Atlanta keep the wheels turning offensively while Dyson tries to figure out where the rest of his offensive game lands.

Two main questions are on the horizon for Daniels. First, can this defensive explosion keep up and keep him on an All-Defense course? My money is on yes, and each passing game of defensive dominance only seems to indicate so.

Second, can he find a way to consistently raise the floor of the offense? The screening is a fun wrinkle, the passing and transition game keeps him out of offensive disaster territory, and he’s good for some silky floaters. But if he continues to be a low-volume low-efficiency shooter, options are limited. Unless strides are made on taking and making threes it places a lot of pressure on the rim finishing and off-the-dribble passing skills. We will see how the coming weeks go.

Star Flashes, Needs Work

Tre Mann

Man, it was hard to keep Tre out of the top tier, but I’ve been fooled by this kind of player before.

I wrote about Tre’s growth last season after he arrived in Charlotte, a primer of sorts before what felt like a breakout campaign in waiting. The first stretch of the season felt extremely validating as Mann averaged 21/4/4 on 47/41/100 splits through the first 5 games in his new role as sixth-man extraordinaire. Then some of the shine came off.

Mann averaged 10/2/3 on 40/35/79 splits over his next eight games while missing some time due to an illness. Then disc irritation in his back fully sidelined him, and Mann has been inactive for 9 straight contests.

Without much to glean over the recent stretch due to the cloud of injury hanging over his usage patterns, we will look closer at Tre’s adjustment once the film has built up more. One scorching stretch followed by a period of struggle hampered by DNPs is ripe for overreaction, therefore we will hit the snooze button on an update after writing about him so recently.

******* ****** [Name Omitted]

Here’s our first mystery man, who will see his debut article in the series soon. The tape screams breakout and I’m excited to get it out soon so more can notice what’s happening under our noses.

******* ********** [Name Omitted]

And the second of the three mystery men, one who has endured a rough start to the season but continues to show the flashes of a future starter, if not an outright star. Stay tuned on that front as the film continues to build.

Strong Rotation Piece

Aaron Nesmith

Alas, we have another player whose injury struggles muddy the picture. The fifth-year forward has missed 19 straight games after suffering an ankle sprain in game 6 of the year against the Pelicans, halting his development story.

His return will be an interesting one. Indiana is struggling offensively with Tyrese Haliburton taking a noticeable step back in production and the residual absence of Buddy Hield‘s exit at the deadline last year, dropping from 2nd in the league to 12th in the early going. Nesmith is exciting as a shooter and closeout stampeder but may struggle to find rhythm again if the context around him has declined.

Hopefully, the ankle injury won’t hamper his defensive impact as a whirlwind rotation defender and defensive event creator, which Indiana needs to create transition opportunities for the offense. Let’s hope for a speedy recovery and some development to explore in the next edition.

Sam Hauser

No player on this list has seen less change in role than Sam Hauser. His usage pattern speaks to the veritable machine that Boston is, even with Kristaps Porzingis‘ early absence.

In nearly identical minutes per game, Hauser is averaging 7.1 shots per game to last year’s 7.1, with 5.9 threes attempted per game in both seasons. He clocks in, gets threes up, clocks out. His 37% mark from deep is a big dip from the first 3 years of his career, where he made 42.2% of his 4.6 attempts per game. I’d expect it to smooth out as Hauser is one of the more versatile and accurate volume three role players in the game. It’s already heading that way, as Sam is hitting 46% of his looks from deep over the past 8 games.

Little has changed in his offense, and little is generous. As I wrote about in my first exploration of Hauser’s game, he is limited as a closeout attacker and driver, which has continued thus far. The closeout attacks have improved a tick but I want to see a bit more before considering this as a real trend.

What interests me about Hauser are the flashes he’s showing on the other end. Boston employs strong defenders top to bottom and likes to switch often because of this so that lesser defenders like Hauser can take risks and cover up on the back side in rotation. Now there are moments when Hauser is out on an island and looks competent, if not very good, on the perimeter.

Hauser being even a defensive neutral on the perimeter in this scheme would be more than enough to justify his minutes with the shooting he brings. If he can be an outright positive, the rich will continue to get richer as his 4-year $45 million extension may prove to be a steal. There’s already a floor there with his size and presence as a competent rebounder. I’m excited to see how he bounces back offensively and if the defense can be proven as real once the rotation readjustments occur when Porzingis heals.

Nickeil Alexander-Walker

Now here’s a guy on a hot streak.

Alexander-Walker has jumped out to career-high scoring efficiency this season, hitting 59% of his two-point looks and 46% of his threes. Most importantly so far, he’s making 82% of his looks at the rim, a major point of focus in my last analysis of NAW’s game. There are still warts with his drives and live dribble finishes yet there are reasons to believe the improvement is real, provided the shooting numbers keep up. He is certainly confident in his shot and has leveraged that into quality pull-up twos when attacking closeouts.

If Nickeil continues to take and make his threes at a high volume it will open up easier looks, lessening the burden on his dribble which has continued to look suspect. His turnover woes could also be smoothed out with easy reads against a rotating defense.

An uptick in offensive production takes him to a new level of value, considering his defense. He’s been stellar as usual on the perimeter with an ability to affect all kinds of players on the drive with his combination of size, strength, and agility.

The film backs up the numbers, indicating yet another season of elite defense for one of the league’s unheralded defensive gems. I’ll be interested to see if the offense continues to grow to match his capabilities on the ugly end of the floor.

Goga Bitadze

Injury luck struck my list of players hard for this first quarter of the season. At least one player here benefited from the huge swath of injuries across the league. In this case, it may have saved his season.

Across the season’s first seven games, Goga Bitadze played a grand total of 17 minutes, including four DNP-CDs. The brand new 3-year $25M contract seemingly meant little towards his short-term outlook for playing time. Orlando also had Paolo Banchero and Wendell Carter Jr. healthy early in the season, but by game 8 against Oklahoma City, both were out for the foreseeable future. Goga went from the end of the bench to a starter and hasn’t looked back.

He’s been a starting lineup fixture for 18 of the last 19 games, including some games with Wendell as his frontcourt mate. It’s been a very productive stretch for Bitadze who has averaged 9.9 points on 66% shooting to go with 8 boards and 2.7 stocks. One huge offensive improvement I had my eye on was restricted area finishing. This year he’s jumped to career highs in the restricted area (74%) and in the 3-10 foot range (64%), up from 72% and 44% last year.

In addition to his usual roll, cut, and slam prowess that I wrote about earlier this year, he is showing some encouraging touch plays around the basket that show me this might be sustainable growth.

Goga’s limited offensive role leaves few areas of improvement. The finishing is a major point since all he’s asked to do is finish plays. He sets a great screen, can make some nice passes to his cutters from the post and out of the roll, and cleans up in the restricted area. Adding a few percentage points to his paint looks is all Orlando can ask for given the scope of his offense. At the end of the day, he’s out there for what he can do defensively.

Little has changed with his defensive game, and I say this with the utmost respect. I wanted to see improved rebounding, and the numbers are up slightly, but I’ll want to see more to determine if he is becoming a true menace on the glass. The fouls are still up and can hamper his game at times. Yet at this point, the results speak for themselves. Orlando boasts a defensive rating of 103 with him on the floor, and the individual metrics back up his penchant for dirty work. He leads all players in D-LEBRON (a wonderful catch-all courtesy of Bball Index) and has a 92nd percentile D-EPM for the second year running. The film shows a guy who is not to be tested in the restricted area. Goga is a true rim protection maestro.

It remains to be seen if Bitadze will continue to start, or even be in the rotation, upon Paolo Banchero’s return. It speaks to Orlando’s depth in the frontcourt that a center playing at an All-Defensive caliber may be out of the rotation entirely despite his +8.2 on/off rating. I’m excited to see how Jamahl Mosley handles this team when fully healthy and with Goga at this level of production.

Rotation Flashes, Needs Work

Peyton Watson

When I wrote about Watson last month, it was fresh off an injury to Aaron Gordon that thrust Watson into the starting lineup. Though I didn’t see tons of improvement in his play, the box score results certainly stood out. With the Nuggets starters, specifically Nikola Jokic, Watson produced a 12/4/2/1.8 stocks statline on 57/42/71 splits. The consistency was also remarkable – Watson posted double-digit points in 8 of his 11 starts. Funny how playing with an MVP can make you look so much better.

There has been a positive uptick in his cutting, and the defense has looked more consistent on a night-to-night basis. What I want to see is how Watson responds to a return to the bench. Aaron Gordon’s return will reduce his time on the floor with Jokic and I want to see him get up for the bench minutes the same way he got up for starting duties. We’ll take a closer look at Watson’s development around the halfway mark of the season.

Marcus Sasser

The offseason and early goings of the season did not bode well for Marcus Sasser.

When your team replaces the GM who drafted you, adds veterans that eat into your position on the depth chart, and gets a new coach all at once it spells trouble. With DNP-CDs in 8 of his first 12 games and garbage time duties on the menu, it felt like a familiar story. A player with a relatively low draft investment finds himself on the outs as the team heads in a new direction.

But something must have caught the eye of new head coach JB Bickerstaff. Sasser has not only played in 12 of the last 13 games, he’s also averaging 15 minutes per contest while seriously producing. The second-year guard boasts a scorching 53/42/100 slash line over those past dozen appearances. As usual, the shooting on and off the ball has impressed.

What I love to see is Sasser turning this success into a more stable rim-pressure game. In my first article about Marcus over a year ago, I pointed to a lack of rim attempts as a concerning problem. Nobody expects the 6’2″ guard who can’t jump out of the gym to be a huge rim threat, but his 8.8% rim frequency mark from last year was ghastly. Across 211 minutes this year, Sasser has taken 22.4% of his shots at the rim and converted 82% (!!!). The film backs up the numbers: he’s turning more midrange looks, a comfort shot for him, into rim attempts. Thriving while getting uncomfortable is a huge developmental stride.

The guy is also just a pure hustler. He’s had more points coming off cuts this season than last, in 1,100 fewer minutes. Flies in transition and works for his open jumpers, and results have paid off for him and the team; Detroit boasts an offensive rating of 121 with Sasser on the court, compared to 108 last season.

His hustle is also infectious on the defensive end. The screen navigation has ticked up the way I wanted to see. Sasser also continues to get active with his hands at the point of attack and to much better results. Last year he averaged 1.6 steals to 3.7 fouls per 100 possessions; now he’s averaging a cool 3.0 steals to 3.0 fouls.

The aforementioned 6’2″ frame limits his potential defensive matchups, but Sasser falls squarely in the “man, I hate to play that guy” category if you’re an opposing guard.

For a 10-15 Detroit team looking to prove something and crack the play-in tournament, Sasser’s +3.5 net rating combined with the uptick in production and overall hustle points to a consistent rotation spot provided he can keep it up. JB Bickerstaff will reward hustle, and Sasser has plenty of that to go around.

Dominick Barlow

Alas, we come to the truly unknown. Barlow’s spell as a bit rotation player in San Antonio across the last two seasons seems so far away. On his two-way deal with Atlanta, Dominick has seen a total of 11 minutes with the big club. Not ideal.

The good news is his dominance of the G-League continues. Across 11 games with the Skyhawks, Barlow is averaging 20/8/2/2 stocks while shooting 59% from the floor and 82% from the line. Compared to his last two G-League seasons, he’s posting his first positive assist/turnover ratio and positive +/- rating at +4.9. All encouraging signs, but it does beg the question: is Barlow a Quad-A type player, too good for the G but not good enough for the NBA?

I hold out hope that another stint in the league could prove his worth. But for now, we wait and see.

****** ********* [Name Omitted]

And finally, the last unknown player, to be written about at a later date. Every good writer finishes with some mystery, right?

We’ll check back in on these players at the halfway mark of the season, another opportunity to tell their stories of development in the world’s top basketball league.

The post Finding a Role Check-Ins: Quarter Pole appeared first on Swish Theory.