Player A.

Player B.

If asked to pick between the two players without added context I’m sure many (myself included) would choose Player A. The gap in three-point shooting efficiency combined with the wide disparity in dunks paint Player B as a much more athletic, play-finishing wing. Considering the similarity in age, this may indicate more potential in Player A than Player B, despite Player B’s self-creation proxies (percentage of unassisted shots) being more impressive. For the reveal…Player A is Ben McLemore (the 7th pick in the 2013 draft), and Player B is Tyler Herro (the 13th pick in the 2019 draft).

Both 2013 and 2019 were considered relatively weaker draft classes at the time, and both Herro and McLemore had high draft capital invested in them mainly due to their shooting ability. So if shooting production is so easily forecasted why did these two players yield such wildly different results, and why are past drafts littered with highly touted shooters who either flamed out early into their NBA careers, or simply didn’t return anywhere near the value expected from their draft placement? What separates the Ben McLemores, Jimmer Fredettes, and Nik Stauskases of the world from the luminary shooters who came to define this era of basketball? Is there something that inherently makes shooting more inconsistently translatable than we’ve acknowledged or are aware of?

In an attempt to answer these questions I want to examine the shooting profiles of three 2024 draft prospects whose primary sell has been their shooting. The three players I’ve decided to dive into for this exercise are Ja’Kobe Walter, Melvin Ajinca, and Rob Dillingham.

Mechanic Specifically

In the past I have relied on my traditional understand of shooting mechanics to judge and grade shooting ability in different players. As the years pass and I see more and more players develop into anywhere from passable to potent shooters with unconventional shot mechanics, I realized while there is value in having some core shooting principles in your evaluations, flexibility is necessary. Confining the definition of a ‘good’ shot to an antiquated understanding of follow-throughs, foot placements and guide hand positioning will more than likely exclude high-level shooters from your rigid rubric. This realization drove me to developing a much more fluid grading system when it comes to differentiating shooters, based on these three tenets:

• Speed
• Versatility
• Volume

Shot Speed

Shooting speed is an essential component, and while it isn’t tracked in any widely available database, I am of the belief that shot speed is a great indicator of muscle memory which is closely tied to how immediately a player’s shot may translate and how far I feel comfortable projecting the potency of a player’s shot. This idea was brought about during the process of researching this piece. I had gone back to look into past prospects’ tape and see if there was a through-line in their shots which could have indicated they’d become the level of shooter they eventually developed into in the NBA. Take the clip below, for example:

The complete absence of load time physically or indecision in the process of shooting provides insight into the hardwiring of the shooter. For those who don’t recognize the shot mechanics due to the video quality (best I could find of 2012 WAC tape) the shooter here is Damian Lillard! While Dame’s shooting proficiency is an unrealistic bar to measure shooters by, there is value in recognizing how his ability to get into his shot, no matter how tight the window, was relevant to his development into a nuclear shooter.

Volume & Versatility

While all three of these core shooting principles are interrelated, it is necessary to discuss shooting volume and versatility in the same breath because one precipitates the other. It is impossible to attain sustainable shooting volume without an expansive shooting repertoire. Researching this piece I noticed a common theme amongst a lot of shooting prospect ‘misses’: an overreliance on shots from a specific play-type, whether it be shots off the dribble or catch-and-shoot attempts.

A player I had considered including in this piece was Zeke Mayo, a junior guard playing for South Dakota State. Initially enticed by his high shooting volume (11.5 3’s attempted per 100 possessions) on a diet of largely self created 3-point attempts (only 28% assisted threes), I dug into Mayo’s tape expecting to find a high-level shot creator forced into a lot of suboptimal attempts due to the lack of creation ability surrounding him. And while this was in large part the case, I also noticed an interesting trend. While Mayo was forced to take a significant amount of threes off the dribble because he was the only SDSU player capable of consistently creating their own shot, when he was provided opportunities to shoot open spot-ups they all too often looked like the plays below.

These plays, which individually may seem benign, standard cases of a player turning down a shot in search of a better look for himself or his teammates, is actually symptom of a larger issue in Mayo’s process as a shooter. After delving deeper into Mayo’s tape I eventually came to the conclusion that his low assist rate on threes was actually a function, not a bug, of his value system as a shooter. Mayo was undeniably more comfortable taking threes off the dribble, and almost always required a rhythm dribble to take an attempt. Any hard closeout which disrupted Mayo’s routine would cause him to pass up the shot attempt. This tendency not only represents a limitation in shot versatility, but also suppressed his volume. While this wart in Mayo’s shooting habits would be much easier to look over for most draft candidates, for a prospect whose shooting ability is central to their value, any minor flaw can be accounted for and exploited at the NBA level, hindering their viability as a spacer.

The best analogy I could use to describe the effect a player has when they possess all these qualities as a shooter is the Patellar-Reflex Test, or the Knee-Jerk Reflex Test as a layman like myself had known it as. This terminology probably sounds foreign but bear with me, we’ve all probably undergone this reflex test at some point over the course of a routine doctors visit. The doctor takes a rubber mallet to your kneecap, and as long as you deliver the expected reaction by kicking out your leg the physician carries on with the rest of the check-up. For anyone not following, the test is clipped below.

While any swing of the mallet will cause the knee to move, the more force applied the greater the reaction will be. In this analogy think of the shooter as being the doctor with the rubber mallet and the defense being the patient’s knee. The greater the volume, versatility, and speed of the shooter, the more pressure they will be able to apply to the defense and the more pronounced of a reaction they will be able to elicit from the defense.

For a demonstration of this idea playing out in a game lets compare two shooting specialists, Caleb Houstan and Buddy Hield. Both rank in the 78th and 74th percentile in three point shooting Points Per Possession (PPP), per Synergy. However, a closer look at the tape will show a drastic difference in the kind of reaction they elicit from the defenses they face. The two clips below for example, both plays feature Houstan and Hield running ghost screens intended to create seams for their ballhandlers to drive to the basket and create.

However, notice only Hield is able to get the on-ball defender, in this case Bam Adebayo, to open his stance and provide Tyrese Haliburton with a driving lane. Haliburton not only has a lane to drive to his strong hand, but enough space to take a pull-up 3.

Even the best shooting specialists in the league have seen their value fluctuate almost season by season depending on swings in efficiency. Duncan Robinson parlayed one hot shooting season into a substantial contract, was unable to maintain his efficiency as a shooter, and was almost immediately deemed ‘one of the worst contracts in the league’. Only after expanding his game off the dribble was he able to regain status as a valuable offensive weapon. Davis Bertans boasted one of the most stellar shooting resumes in the NBA before a prolonged shooting slump rendered his contract a massive albatross. These examples are crucial show why having a clear understanding of a player’s shooting is essential. By examining the three players central to this piece I hope to shed some light on A.) whether their shot possesses the factors necessary to remain effective as they transition to the NBA, and B.) what qualities in the rest of their offensive game separate them as shooters.

Ja’Kobe Walter vs Melvin Ajinca

At first glance Ja’Kobe Walter and Melvin Ajinca do not seem to have many similarities outside of being two 19-year-old prospects who will most likely be entering the 2024 draft. Walter is a sinewy 6’5 guard/wing, former 5-star recruit, who is currently playing for Baylor. Melvin Ajinca is a 6’7 lefty wing playing in the LNB ProA league (the highest division in France) for Saint-Quentin. Both players are touted for their shooting ability first and foremost and will be expected to serve as high-level floor-spacers for their respective NBA teams upon being drafted. However, their divergent routes to prospect-dom help shed light on how able they will be to able to meet this expectation.

Melvin Ajinca

Melvin Ajinca first came onto draft radars after an extremely impressive showing in the FIBA U19 World Cup this past summer, where he lead the French team to the championship game while shooting a blistering 71.6 (!!) true shooting percentage. While the majority of Ajinca’s scoring was of the play-finishing variety, consisting of hitting spot-up threes and getting out in transition, there were some flashes of high level self-creation. Take the play below, for example: France clears out the left side of the floor for what appears to be an empty-corner pick and roll for Ajinca. He quickly rejects the screen and counters the defender closing off the baseline by fluidly transitioning into a stepback three.

Displays of shooting off the bounce such as this, combined with Ajinca’s indifference towards contests and his willingness pulling from range well beyond that of his peers…

…quickly vaulted him into early draft conversations and captured my attention as a potentially outlier shooting prospect.

From here I attempted to gain a deeper perspective of Ajinca’s career prior to and since the U19 tournament, watching games from his time with Saint-Quentin in the French LNB Pro B league to now where they’ve earned promotion to the Pro A ranks. Ajinca, as with many young European prospects, has been confined to filling the specific role of an off-ball spacer, and actually his seven-game stint with the U19 team had been the most freedom he’d been afforded on-ball up to that point of his career. In 41 games logged in Synergy, Ajinca had been used in Isolation or as a P&R ballhandler 39 times; over the course of seven games in the U19 World Cup he’d seen 14 possessions in the same play-types.

Ajinca’s previous usage aligns with how we conventionally think of shooters being deployed. Ajinca saw the majority of his shots in the halfcourt come from deliberate set plays, such as the possession below where Saint-Quentin runs Horns Flare Spain, where Ajinca cuts from the right corner to serve as the second screener in the Spain action. Evident in this action is Ajinca’s lightning quick release, allowing him to catch and shoot in one motion.

If Ajinca wasn’t being used in Spain he was being run off double staggers…

Or a simple pindown with some window dressing, such as this Rip (backscreen) Screen-the-Screener action.

I would say these three actions are generally representative of how Ajinca has been utilized for Saint-Quentin, and, while I was initially captivated by how efficient Ajinca was in getting into his shot due to his quick mechanics and efficient energy transfer, as I watched more tape a trend started to become apparent. If you noticed a similarity in all of these clips, the plays are meticulously diagrammed, with Ajinca placed as a feature, not the focus of the action. While the speed component of Ajinca’s shot is certainly NBA caliber, to consistently place pressure on defenses these kind of plays are not best suited to answering the questions of volume and versatility essential to any high level NBA shooter.

Realizing this can sound kind of counterintuitive, if a player shoots with good efficiency and can get their shot off under duress, why would their be any uncertainty as to whether or not they can maintain their volume as they transition to the NBA? Wouldn’t it be in their team’s best interest to implement a steady diet of shooting opportunities into their offense for said player? The answer to this is complicated. In the NBA offenses typically subscribe to the philosophy of “path of least resistance”, meaning the bedrock of most team’s offenses comes down to “what is the most direct path which will yield the most consistent results.”

With shooting specialists, if they are schemed a shot it is with the understanding that the advantage typically begins and ends with the player receiving an open shot. And while this will work on occasion, frequently depending how well the play is diagrammed, there is a ceiling to how consistently these playtypes will bear fruit for an offense. The best phrasing I could think of to describe this difference is active versus passive spacing.

Compare these two clips below, for instance, of Desmond Bane and Simone Fontecchio stationed in the corner.

In the first clip, Kris Dunn drives from the middle of the floor, beats his man, and Fontecchio’s defender Fred VanVleet ‘helps the helper’ by rotating over from his initial assignment to prevent the dump-off passing angle to John Collins, all the while leaving Fontecchio open for the corner three. In the second clip, the Grizzlies run a spread pick-and-roll with Bane spaced in the corner. At first glance it seems Fontecchio’s three was the result of a defensive error by VanVleet. Whereas in the second clip Hardaway Jr doesn’t even briefly entertain the idea of leaving Bane to tag the roller in the second clip.

While it seems obvious the ideal execution in these similar positions is to remain closely attached to the shooter as Tim Hardaway Jr. does to Bane, VanVleet was doing what was asked of his defensive scheme as well. The main difference in these two clips isn’t so much the result of the play as the variety of shooter being covered in the play. While Simone Fontecchio is a respectable shooter (shooting 40% from three on the season on 305 attempts to date), what makes him a passive versus an active spacer is the understanding defenders have of how limited their responsibilities are when guarding Fontecchio.

As previously mentioned, usually when shooting specialists are schemed open, the advantage is confined to the three which was drawn up. As seen below, Simone Fontecchio is no exception to this. When the defense runs him off the line, the advantage is effectively ended.

Defenders knowing that a hard closeout, which gets Fontecchio to relocate, or even run off the three-point line, is effective in neutralizing his shooting threat, greatly reduces the strain Fontecchio can place on a defense. This simplified thought process for defenders manifests on the court in plays like the clip below. Michael Porter Jr. is Fontecchio’s initial defender, however he has no qualms helping off Fontecchio to stunt (provide help on a post-up) towards John Collins.

This play embodies the active versus passive spacing dichotomy, as while Fontecchio demands the respect of the closeout, the shooting threat isn’t so great that Fontecchio can carve out space for others outside of a very specific usage. Constant application of these kind of plays isn’t feasible for the simple fact that they introduce perhaps the hallmark of a bad NBA offense, predictability. And while implementing movement shooting elements into an offense is crucial, it is typically used as a feature, not the foundation of an offense.

Take the play below: the Cavaliers run a Ram Veer Exit play, where Georges Niang receives an off-ball screen from Max Strus en-route to setting an on-ball screen for Craig Porter Jr. (this is the Ram part of the action). After setting the screen for Porter Jr., Niang sets a pindown for Sam Merrill (Veer action), while Strus simultaneously receives an exit screen from Isaac Okoro. This play is beautifully designed, and all of these moving parts create a seam for Craig Porter Jr. to drive and score an easy layup. By expertly blending the shooting capabilities of these three players who individually demand respect, Cleveland is able to breakdown the defense without any conventional advantage creators on the floor.

However, if you were to remove all the scaffolding which comes with a well diagrammed play being combined with multiple potent shooters, what would it look like?

Take the play below, for example, a baseline out of bounds play in what is a much less shooting slanted lineup. Cleveland runs Ram Ghost, where Sam Merrill inbounds the ball receives a pindown from Niang and ghosts the on-ball screen. It is apparent from the play that this action doesn’t place nearly the same strain on the defense, with Boston switching 1-4 and not even momentarily hesitant on abandoning their scheme to pursue Merrill. Even with a heavier-footed big like Al Horford switching onto a perimeter player, the lacking off-the-bounce threat of Merrill makes this a simple rotation to execute.

I felt it necessary to reference these players not to undermine their abilities or paint them as devoid of value, but to provide a frame of reference for my concerns with Melvin Ajinca. As I went through his tape a persistent theme, similar to these shooting specialists cited above, was the absence of production when Ajinca was adequately covered out to the three-point line. There were numerous instances of Ajinca hamstringing the offense when he was forced to counter after meeting resistance on the initial action, such as this Spain PNR below…

Or when Ajinca was incapable of capitalizing on an opportunity to attack a short closeout when run off the line.

These clips may be seen as isolated instances, and Ajinca optimists may even interpret these plays as a natural byproduct of a younger player who has received limited on-ball reps. However, I remain skeptical of Ajinca’s potential to drastically improve this skill, as Saint-Quentin has actually attempted to integrate Ajinca more as a ballhandler into their offense. While he has almost exclusively seen these opportunities come in simple, two-man actions such as this empty corner pick-and-roll below, the results have left much to be desired with Ajinca scoring only .784 PPP as a PNR ballhandler this season.

As stated earlier, Ajinca still possesses the qualities of a viable off-ball spacer, but I see these limitations preventing him from ever seeing a usage higher than the current 16% usage he’s sporting for Saint Quentin. For Ajinca, as with most shooting specialists at the highest levels, their inability to adapt when forced to play out of structure curbs their volume, and as a result their impact on a possession to possession basis.

Ja’Kobe Walter

As stated earlier, both Ja’Kobe Walter and Melvin Ajinca’s primary appeal as prospects are their utility as shooters. However, both players have seen drastically different usages and the dichotomy between their respective shooting profiles would show as much. Below is a table of both Ajinca and Walter’s shooting splits over the past two seasons (2022-23 and the current season).

At first these splits seem to represent two players with somewhat similar shooting pedigrees, and in fact this table may stir some confusion as to why there’s such a great deal of separation between the two prospects in general draft media perception, judging by draft boards. Walter has shot a greater volume of 3s compared to Ajinca, however Ajinca’s been more efficient from a more standardized distance (all of Ajinca’s 3s are from the FIBA line of 22.15 feet, whereas a substantial portion of Walter’s long distance attempts are from the high school line of 19.75 feet). Initially I came into this process expecting to see similar calibre of shooters, with the gap in shooting ability between the two players to be equally represented on film; however in reality the effect these players had on defenses held stark contrasts.

To fully grasp the difference between Walter and Ajinca’s shooting ability, a holistic approach is necessary. While Ajinca has more or less seen identical usage in every team context he has been placed in, Walter’s role has varied greatly over the course of his young career. The different levels of usage are apparent in the difference between the number of non-threes Walter has taken compared to Ajinca. The scope of this article so far has mainly focused on these players ability to space the floor from three, but Walter’s shot diversity amplifies his effectiveness as a spacer.

Previously Melvin Ajinca’s processing and ability to adapt off the catch had been greatly scrutinized, and mentioned as a potential limiting factor to his utility to an offense. Ja’Kobe Walter, on the other hand, has a well-refined game off the catch and has melded other aspects of his scoring repertoire to fully exploit his shooting. The disparity between how reliable the two are at parlaying the shooting threat they present is evident in their respective free throw rates, as Walter has posted a robust 0.46 ratio of free throw to field goal attempts compared to a paltry 0.20 for Ajinca. The clips below are a prime examples of how Walter is able to convert these hard closeouts into quality offense.

In the first clip, Baylor runs a simple spread pick-and-roll, with Walter positioned in the weakside corner. Cincinnati’s big is in a high-drop coverage, and because of the angle he takes Walter’s defender (the low-man) has to over-help to prevent the wraparound pass. Once Walter receives the kickout in the corner, he fully capitalizes on the long closeout his man has to make by immediately getting downhill and drawing the foul

What is not visible in this clip, however, is Walter’s excellent footwork attacking these closeouts. Walter consistently is able to deploy ‘negative step’ footwork, where he uses his rear-foot to springboard his drives and mitigate some of his lackluster burst. The play below exemplifies this: the Baylor point-guard RayJ Dennis is able to break his man down off the dribble, triggering Walter’s man to help on the drive. As Walter receives the pass in the corner, his defender simultaneously recovers and is shading Walter towards the baseline. However, the defender’s top-foot is too high on the closeout, enabling Walter to attack and open up a driving lane to then draw the foul and finish for an and-one opportunity.

Why I initially thought it necessary to delve into the different developmental contexts between Walter and Ajinca, beyond their ability to attack closeouts, is how capable they are of adapting to the defense once run off the line. Walter isn’t just fixed to foul drawing when attacking closeouts. His previous time spent as a primary offensive option afford him a bevy of alternatives to place pressure on the defense.

Below is an example of exactly this, Baylor once again is running a spread PNR with RayJ Dennis as the ballhandler and Walter stationed in the corner. As Dennis’ defender loses contain, Walter’s man rotates over to help on the drive, creating a gap for Walter to attack when the ball is swung to him. Unlike the last closeout attack vs Cincinnati where Walter was provided a direct driving path towards the basket, this time Dennis’ defender rotates over from the topside. Despite the added variable Walter is able to quickly pro-hop to navigate the dig, and get to a balanced floater off two feet.

Take notice that as the screen is set Walter and his teammate on the wing, Jalen Bridges, exchange. While this may seem insignificant this is a microcosm of shooters having different levels of gravity. While on the surface Bridges may seem to be the better shooter than Walter, as he boasts a 40.6% 3-point shot compared to Walter’s 34.5%. But Walter is a much more reliable release valve for an offense because of plays just like this.

Synthesizing the information gathered from the tape and available databases like Synergy shows Walter to have a more impressive shot versatility than Ajinca. The table below displays three-point shooting efficiency over the past 2 seasons off handoffs and screens, showing how Walter has actually been more efficient in the most common playtypes for their presumed archetype.

Granted this a small sample, but this lends support to the theory of Ajinca’s shooting efficiency being drastically boosted by shots which don’t generate “gravity” as it is commonly understood.

Walter is not without his faults as a shooter, however, as while he surpasses Ajinca in versatility there is a limiting factor in his shot speed. If you notice in the clips above Walter is able to get downhill because he is operating off substantial advantages created by others and he has the respect to draw hard closeouts. Neither of these are factors can be relied on at the next level, where closeouts lie on more of a spectrum.

To demonstrate the relationship between shot speed and long versus short closeouts, I have pulled a few clips shown below. In the first clip, Moses Moody attacks a mismatch after Golden State gets an offensive rebound, and kicks the ball out to Brandin Podziemski after drawing Pascal Siakam as the help defender. Take notice of the depth of Siakam’s closeout; instead of closing out with reckless abandon or crowding Podziemski to prevent him getting a shot off, he stops a few feet short.

This short closeout is informed by Podziemski’s reputation as a shooter, where despite shooting 38% from 3 on the season and a blistering 44.7% as a collegian this past season, his discomfort shooting over contests and in tighter windows dissuades him from attempts with a high degree of difficulty. And when Podziemski does attempt shots over length, his lower release point makes contesting shots an easier task for defenders, as demonstrated in the clip below.

Podziemski runs off an Iverson cut to receive the entry pass and from here the Warriors attempt to flow into an empty corner PNR. However, the Raptor’s matchup zone clogs up any driving/passing lanes for this action, forcing Dario Saric to flash to the middle of the floor and find Podziemski sinking into a pocket of space left vacant by the zone. Notice again, despite the space a recovering Gary Trent Jr. is forced to cover, he stops a few feet short and is able to well contest the shot. Understandably this may seem like a harsh judgement of an ostensibly quality NBA shooter, however capitalizing on these margins is what separates shooters at the next level.

Contrast the treatment Podziemski receives as a spacer versus a player like Tim Hardaway Jr., for example. Hardaway’s high and quick release, paired with the bordering irrational confidence he has in his shot. When the shooting windows shrink, Walter will need to prove he can consistently get his shot off. Examining his previous tape shows how this will need to be an area of improvement for Walter.

Take the clip below. After Baylor runs some disjointed early offense they flow into a Spread PNR. Walter’s defender, Jameer Nelson Jr., is forced to tag the roller early due to TCU’s big hedging the ballscreen and RayJ Dennis swings the ball to Walter on the wing. Nelson Jr. closes-out on Walter with balanced footwork, and most importantly short. The short closeout allows Walter space to get up an attempt from 3 which Nelson Jr., listed at 6’2, is able to emphatically block.

This play does a great job of capturing the gradient which closeouts lie on. Walter is a dangerous enough shooter to demand some sort of closeout and is proficient driving against hard closeouts, meaning an option teams will exercise is the short closeout where Walter is forced to shoot over a moderate contest. While this block can be seen as an aberration, a single play not indicative of more than a bad decision from Walter, I’m of the belief this represents a wider trend and a weakness which Walter could struggle improving upon at the next level.

First of all, it is not just spot-up attempts Walter struggles getting up quickly, he also frequently had issues getting up shots off-the-dribble up against smaller defenders. Take the clip below, for example. Baylor runs a Get-77 action which is blown-up, and in response Walter lifts up from the corner and runs an empty corner PNR with Jordan Pope as his primary defender. Pope, listed at 6’2, blocks the shot AFTER going under the screen.

I’ve avoided discussing shot mechanics up until now because I don’t think there’s a platonic ideal to what a shot should look like, and often judgements in shot mechanics are more informed by aesthetics than functionality. In Walter’s case however, his struggles transitioning into his shot quickly run downstream from his mechanics. The clip below demonstrates two ways Walter compensates for this mechanical inefficiency.

Walter has a lower release point, to compensate for his struggles generating power from his lower body. This is evident from the valgus collapse in his knees shown more clearly below.

Another idiosyncrasy of Walter’s shot, potentially limiting his shot speed, is an inelastic set-point, also apparent in this clip. Notice how Walter gathers for this shot well outside his frame in order to position his shot so that it is set with his elbow pronated. This elbow pronation is more clearly displayed in the picture below.

Typically a shooter’s elbow is much tighter to his body, and more closely aligned with the shooter’s feet. The elbow pronation makes the set-point rigid, causing the shooter to take another split second to transition from their set-point to release. Both of these deficiencies are a result of Walter lacking general strength, which can be alleviated with time spent in an NBA strength program. However, when he doesn’t have the hair-trigger release speed to be consistently effective off horizontal shooting actions like ghost screens and flares, Walter’s defender can go under the flare screen and still credibly contest the shot, as in the clip below.

For a shooting prospect who cannot draw the hard closeouts necessary to create unambiguous driving opportunities, and who doesn’t necessary have the handle to capitalize on less pronounced advantages, the application of their shooting prowess can be significantly narrower than previously anticipated.

I found the parallels in these two plays and between these two players striking. Both Kevin Huerter and Walter are run off double staggers and neither is able to gain a significant amount of separation from the trailing defender. And when the decision is forced upon them by the defense, neither has the self organization skills to quickly transition into a shot off the dribble or drive to maintain the advantage, so in both cases the play results in a turnover.

This is not to say Walter is a one-to-one comp to Huerter, more so to illustrate the struggles a shooting specialist in his mold may encounter when his jumpshot is lacking in certain qualities. What we want to avoid is a shooting prospect whose draft slot warrants heavy investment of developmental resources, but who ultimately possesses a fungible skillset which I believe is the case with Walter.

Rob Dillingham

Up to this point the focus has been on parsing shooting aptitude based on which conditions prospects FAILED to meet, however, I wanted to delve into 6’2 Kentucky guard Rob Dillingham’s game as an example of what constitutes a high level shooting prospect on tape and by the numbers.

In order to understand what makes Dillingham’s potential as a shooter so appealing, it is necessary to look at his shooting profile over the past two seasons just as we had with Melvin Ajinca and Ja’Kobe Walter.

What immediately stands out about Dillingham’s shot profile is the difference in volume of off-the-dribble 3’s as well as catch-and-shoot 3’s compared to Walter and Ajinca. Dillingham over the exact same time frame and comparable total number of games played (Dillingham played 71 games over this stretch, compared to 75 and 80 for Ajinca and Walter respectively), managed to shoot more 3’s off the bounce than Walter and Ajinca COMBINED while shooting significantly less Catch-and-Shoot 3’s than both players (193 C&S 3’s versus 315 and 353). Some of the discrepancy in shot distribution can definitely be explained by their positional distinctions, but seeing how quickly Dillingham adapted to more of an off-ball role, when his responsibilities more closely aligned with Ajinca and Walter’s, was a revelation. When deployed as an off-ball player and asked to run off screens, Dillingham created space by utilizing the burst and understanding of tempo which made him such a potent scorer off the bounce.

Take the play below for example. Kentucky runs Floppy initially, with Dillingham being defended well on the catch. After Dillingham swings the ball back to Reed Sheppard at the top of the key, he runs towards Aaron Bradshaw on the left block, setting what seems to be the first screen of a baseline double stagger set. However, with Dillingham’s defender going over the top of Bradshaw’s screen, Dillingham recognizes this, reroutes and turns this into a ‘Ricky’ action, where the screener rescreens for the cutter but going in the opposite direction of the initial screen.

While Dillingham was used sparingly as a movement shooter (only 12 3’s off screens this season, on which he went 5/12), this play exemplifies how quickly Dillingham can self-organize and get into his shot off a variety of footwork patterns. Dillingham’s shooting numbers this season for Kentucky were obviously stellar, however a deeper look into the degree of difficulty on these shots quells any concerns I have on the translatability of Dillingham’s jumper. In the clip below for instance, Dillingham breaks convention not by taking a transition 3, but taking it as the primary ballhandler dribbling full speed down the court.

Willingness to shoot in these suboptimal situations, like the plays below where Dillingham comes off a pindown and takes a one dribble 3 with Tre Mitchell splayed at his feet..

…and over a tight contest from Armando Bacot, bodes well for maintaining his shot volume at the next level.

As I watched Dillingham over the course of the season I found there to be interesting parallels between him and a rookie from this past year’s class, Keyonte George. While there are drastic differences between the two in certain respects, there are/were similar concerns in their shot selection as prospects. During his tenure at Baylor, George had been much maligned for a perceived inability to operate within a team construct and even labeled a ‘chucker’ by some draft analysts. I would argue what was considered a weakness has actually been essential to George outperforming expectations in his rookie year.

Take this play from early in the season, for example, where Utah attempts to run Horns Out for Jordan Clarkson in early offense, but when the entry is denied George receives a Flare screen from Clarkson. Notice the apathy the defense displays towards a George three point attempt: if we are judging the value of George as a shooter by the aforementioned Knee-Jerk Reflex Test, it would be pretty low.

What I found so interesting about George’s rookie season was that despite how pedestrian his shooting splits were (38.6% from the field and 32.8% from 3), the coverages he saw over the course of the season transformed in large part because of how consistent he was with his volume. In fact, George saw his 3-point volume steadily increase over the course of the season. In the 2023 calendar year (games played from October-December) George averaged 5.1 attempts/game, and in 2024 George averaged 6.3 attempts/game. The Jazz were intentional in exploring the upper limits of George’s capabilities offensively and he consistently answered the bell. He now demonstrates his comfort shooting in simple flow actions like the DHO from John Collins below, where the sliver of space provided by Steph going under the screen is enough for George to pull the trigger.

George also displayed utility as an off-the-dribble shooter when provided more opportunities on-ball. In the play below Utah flows into a spread PNR as the secondary action and George, without a moment’s hesitation, pulls up for 3 when Bam Adebayo begins to backpedal into drop coverage.

George’s willingness to take these 3’s under duress resulted in him eventually receiving the kind of coverage which stands as the benchmark for offensive players, forcing the defense to place two on the ball.

Later in the same game as the play above, Utah runs Pistol Flare Zoom, a well schemed staple of their offense. Despite the fluid transitions from one action to the next, Miami stifles the offense and the ball finds Keyonte George in the corner. As with most NBA offenses, when Utah’s designed offensive options are taken away they resort to a simple spread PNR. However, because of the threat George presents as a shooter off the bounce, Miami’s big (Orlando Robinson) hard hedges the PNR, triggering the low-man (Haywood Highsmith) to tag the roller and leave Lauri Markannen open in the corner. When George diffuses the pressure of the hedge he quickly finds Markannen for 3.

This is an optimal shot for the Jazz, and Utah was able to create this in spite of Miami playing almost 20 seconds of good defense BECAUSE of George’s off-the-dribble shooting ability. While George isn’t seeing two to the ball with a high frequency yet, per Synergy all 8 of the times he’s been trapped as the PNR ballhandler have come since February 11th, which coincides with George’s rise in shooting volume.

Before revisiting Dillingham’s evaluation, I’d like to reiterate the comparison between George and Dillingham is not being drawn as a 1-to-1 comparison, rather as an example of how a seldom sought after archetype (smaller guards who are high volume shooters) can be extremely valuable if they meet certain criteria.

Dillingham showed himself more than capable of diagnosing coverages where he could utilize his off the dribble shooting prowess. Dillingham, like George in the previous clips, was decisive and consistent in punishing drop coverages which is integral to success for his archetype. In the clip below, Dillingham rejects the first screen in a 77 action (Double Drag) and finds the pocket of space left occupied by the trailing point-of-attack defender and the drop big man, and from there he decisively takes the pull-up 3 with a right-handed gather.

Even as scouting reports became more robust over the course of conference play, Dillingham was still able to get to his pull-up 3 against drop coverage. Like in the play below where Kentucky runs Horns, the POA defender is better able to stay attached to Dillingham and the drop defender is slightly closer to the level of the screen than Hunter Dickinson in the previous clip, however Dillingham is still able to get up an attempt, this time with a left-handed gather.

Even when defenders were playing at the level, like in this play against Oakland in the tournament, Dillingham was undeterred. Kentucky once again is running 77 and Dillingham seizes the space given to take a deep 3 early in the shot clock, despite Zvonimir Ivisic’s defender actually quickly showing at the level.

What makes Dillingham’s shooting ability so enticing is how rare it is to find a prospect who’s not only capable of drawing aggressive coverages with the ball in his hands, but also capitalizing on the attention they draw as shooters off the ball. As previously discussed in Ja’Kobe Walter’s evaluation, attacking closeouts as a shooting threat is of upmost importance. And while Walter’s shot mechanics could limit his effectiveness drawing and attacking closeouts, Dillingham has no such concerns mechanically, along with having an even better process attacking closeouts.

Dillingham was deployed off-ball this season more than any point in his career and shot an astounding 42/88 (47.7%) on Catch and Shoot 3’s. Even more impressive was Dillingham’s ability to parlay the hard closeouts his shooting efficiency attracted into high percentage shots for himself or teammates.

In this clipped play Florida switches the spread PNR placing the big, Thomas Haugh, on Dillingham. Eventually the ball is swung to Antonio Reeves, who drives, causing Haugh to provide gap help. On Haugh’s recovery Dillingham quickly ‘punches’ the gap, drives, and hits a runner. In this play Haugh executes scheme perfectly by funneling Dillingham towards help, but the nuance in Dillingham’s game off the catch renders this advantage.

Dillingham has a wonderful habit of running through the catch, or ‘stampeding’, on closeouts. This creates the finishing angle in the play above, and can be seen even more clearly in the play below. Kentucky flows into a double Zoom action for Antonio Reeves after they’re unable to create a quality look out of the empty corner PNR. When Reeves is stonewalled on his drive he kicks it back out to Dillingham at the top of the key, and Dillingham’s stampede allows him to create the quick separation to finish high off the glass.

Dillingham’s game off the catch can best be described as kinetic in my opinion, whether the possession ends in a Dillingham shot or not, he is able to keep the offense in motion and the defense shifting with his keen sense of court mapping.

In the following clip, Kentucky runs through two hapless spread PNRs with Reed Sheppard as the primary ballhandler. On the 2nd PNR Sheppard rejects the screen and dribbles to the right side of the floor where Dillingham is stationed. As Dillingham lifts from the wing, his defender pressures the ball, prompting a switch onto Dillingham. The switch demands urgency, and Dillingham is able to weaponize this brief advantage on a subpar closeout from an otherwise excellent defender in Cam Matthews.

Dillingham’s drive is an expert display of manipulating defenders with your eyes and tempo, as he waits for both Matthews and the primary rim protector here (Tolu Smith) to commit before eventually making the dumpoff pass to Aaron Bradshaw for a dunk. While some may see this as a combination of bad defense from Smith and solid passing vision from Dillingham, Dillingham’s arsenal of pullups, runners, and floaters, necessitates Smith lifting from his position closer to the basket.

Dillingham’s technical refinement operating off-ball, when paired with high volume off the dribble shooting, amounts to an offensive weapon which could potentially change the entire complexion of a team’s offense. Instead of having a shooter who can only force the defense to react when placed in a set of ideal conditions, a shooter with the depth of tools Dillingham possesses can activate defensive pressure points simply by participating in the play.

An example of this effect can be seen below. Miami runs Iverson 77 Shallow, where Nijel Pack receives the entry pass as he’s cutting across the opposite wing (the Iverson component of the action), and the two elbow screeners flip to initiate the 77 Shallow phase of the action. As previously discussed, 77 consists of double drag screens, however 77 Shallow is a variation where the screens are staggered so the 2nd screener can make a shallow cut to the 3 point line. As Pack takes the 1st screen, the Pitt big man quickly shows to disrupt the rhythm of Pack, a respected off the dribble 3-point shooter. Ideally this should place Blake Hinson in a situation where he’s forced to cover the roller and the shallow cutting shooter, but George is a tick late to lift which kills the window for the advantage to be created. Pack continues dribbling towards the right wing and the gap help from Jaland Lowe carves open a driving lane for AJ Casey who finishes on the drive.

This play encapsulates the interplay between actions designed to get shooters open on the East-West plane, to create North-South gaps for drivers to attack. And shooters who are prolific off the bounce and off the catch function as queens on the chessboard, in how they activate defensive pressure points in either manner.

These versatile shooters also serve as force multipliers for other shooters effectiveness. Take the play below for example, Dallas intends to run ‘Motion Strong Zoom’, where Tim Hardaway Jr. runs off double staggers from the corner (Motion Strong), swings the ball to Dereck Lively, and screens away to initiate the Zoom action for Kyrie Irving. However, as Irving approaches THJ to receive the first screen he is denied, or ‘top-locked’, by Jalen Suggs. This prompts Hardaway to take a handoff from Lively as his (Hardaway Jr’s) initial defender, Anthony Black, and Suggs simultaneously switch their assignments. Suggs switching onto Hardaway Jr. and Black switching onto Irving.

This sequence is so important because with Suggs and Black switching the Mavericks essentially have them dead to rights, as seen in the frame below.

Suggs has lost the battle of leverage, with the switch placing him on Hardaway Jr’s outside shoulder, and Hardaway Jr. being a respected shooter in his own right forces Goga Bitadze to lift slightly out of his drop coverage. This rotation creates the angle for Hardaway to make the short skip pass to Irving, effectively inverting the floor and creating a window for Irving to continue the advantage with a pass to the rolling Lively.

This sequence is a perfect distillation of the synergy between a dynamic off-the-dribble shooting threat and a dynamic, albeit more conventional, shooter. And plays like these are just the tip of the iceberg when it comes to manufacturing offense between these two archetypes. Utilizing shooters as screeners has come into vogue in a major way recently, and perhaps there’s no team better at combining these elements within their offense than the recent NCAA champion UConn Huskies.

In the following clip, UConn runs a wildly intricate action I could only term as ‘Pistol Motion Strong Ghost Flex Screen the Screener’. Despite the overly verbose terminology, this core concept of this action is quite simple, UConn taking their best and most versatile shooter in Cam Spencer and weaponizing him by involving him in as many phases of the offense as possible. As Spencer fakes the Cross Screen for the player in the weakside corner and receives the down screen (Ghost Flex), his defender tightly trails, attempts to deny the curl, and funnel Spencer into Alex Karaban’s defender so they can switch. Switching being the preferred defensive scheme because of Marquette’s similarly sized lineup and the lack of off the dribble scoring threat UConn’s players possess. UConn uses this perceived weakness against Marquette here by having Spencer set a down screen for Karaban as he’s curling towards the basket, springing Karaban open for 3.

I find these clips relevant to Rob Dillingham’s projection because these are the ways his offensive skillset can manifest not only in scoring opportunities for himself, but for others as well. The confluence of Dilling

Conclusion

In summation, I think all these players have viable skillsets as shooters, however my general philosophy when it comes to the draft is to pick for scarcity. Especially when it comes to a team using a high pick, players who provide unique skillsets allow teams to pivot stylistically and adapt to changes in the NBA meta. When it comes to the three prospects previously discussed, I chose them specifically because it was my belief these prospects main value proposition was their shooting talent. Each possess strengths and weaknesses compared to the others in the other facets of their game, but ultimately if a team is picking any of the three it should be for what their shooting ability unlocks within the team’s offense. And in my estimation Robert Dillingham is the only prospect of the three whose shooting and shooting adjacent skillset warrant a high, lottery level, pick because of the previously discussed attributes. Ja’Kobe Walter, who has an interesting profile as a shooter and scorer, doesn’t meet certain thresholds specifically as a shooter to warrant a higher pick, and Melvin Ajinca is too deficient in certain shooting adjacent qualities to be useful outside of the conventional shooting specialist role.

Prior to delving into these prospect’s games I hadn’t considered shooting ability holistically, I’d previously weighed shot mechanics as most essential to projecting shooting. Having worked through this evaluation I realized early on assessing shooting from a purely mechanical perspective naturally introduced aesthetic bias because there’s no idealized shooting form. Ultimately, recognizing this implicit bias lead to a clearer perspective of other flaws in my shooting criteria, flaws which didn’t lie in the characteristics being accounted for, but instead how rigid my philosophy had been overall.

As I dug deeper and deeper into these prospects I realized scouting shooting talent is as much about evaluating evidence which is absent from a player’s shot profile as evaluating the data currently available. The less variables I was able to see a player interact with, the less confident I was in how their shooting ability would translate to the next level. And finally, perhaps even more importantly with prospects who are shooters first and foremost, recognizing there may be no greater impediment to an offense than a player with an unwarranted reputation as a shooter. This is in reference to the ‘active’ vs ‘passive’ spacer dichotomy previously mentioned, as the narrower a player’s shooting can be applied, the less space they are providing an offense.

The days of conventional shooting specialists are long gone, and avoiding spending valuable draft capital on a player who may fall into this category is an imperative.

The post 2024 Draft Shooting Heuristic appeared first on Swish Theory.

We will cover four aspects of athletic display in basketball: offensive rim dominance, offensive midrange dominance, offensive perimeter dominance and defensive dominance. Each of our four examples demonstrate their “flex” in vastly different ways, but to the same result: getting or preventing buckets in a way that will persist as competition rises dramatically.

We’ll define the term athletic dominance as we go.

Rim Dominance: Jonathan Mogbo, San Francisco

Rims are not safe around Jonathan Mogbo. The guard-turned-big is only third in the NCAA to Zach Edey and Ryan Kalkbrenner in dunks, despite being seven and four inches shorter, respectively. Mid-major teams have elite athletes, too.

The number one most important tool for Mogbo is his catch radius. Catch radius defines how big your target is as a roller, and is constructed of several factors: max and standing verticals, vertical load time, wingspan, hand size. Mogbo scores highly on all of these. But catch radius is also about timing, and being physically able to change your location at a moment’s notice. That is a cognitive aspect, namely one’s reaction time, but a physical one too.

Can you change your short strides into long ones, and vice-versa? Mogbo can. He is capable of skying a foot or more above the rim to crash upon the rim. But he can also sneak in quicker oops, reminiscent of a middle hitter in volleyball. He can catch bad passes with his range but also very good ones with precision and timing.

A framework around – “outflexing” or “physical dominance” – whatever term you prefer, lies in how your body relates to others. Namely, how your body can physically withstand abrupt change but also resist a counterforce. Mogbo, in his true versatile fashion, is capable of both. Despite his bulky, wide-shouldered frame, Mogbo is capable of getting low to the ground and into an opponent’s body. Then, uprighting himself with great balance to sling a pass or attack the rim.

With alley oops he’s skyrocketing himself upward, but getting low-to-high near the basket is a major advantage, too.

Finally, the withstanding force. Mogbo has quick feet, which, again, are capable of chopping in an instant. This combined with his wide frame and great balance mean he is difficult to blow by, especially good at absorbing drives, hitting a roller or boxing out.

Essentially, Mogbo is capable of surpassing final walls of defense with his catch radius and sneaking through with his timing. His agility, foot speed and balance allow him to be specific in his movements; his strength allows him to withstand drives while driving himself into an opponent’s chest. Despite being only 6’9”, Mogbo is the premiere vertical threat in his class (with respect to Edey and Holmes) by blending in all these aspects.

Midrange Dominance: Isaiah Collier, USC

Just, and likely more important, than shooting a high percentage in the midrange is the ability to get there in the first place. Often the first item young ballhandlers struggle with at Summer League or the pre-season is getting past that first line of defense. As guards rise through competition levels, the ground coverage and ground resistance capabilities of their median point of attack defender rise exponentially.

Enter Isaiah Collier.

If Zay wanted to, he could have a picnic, take a nap, read a book in the paint. He is as comfortable breaking down a first line of defense as anyone in college basketball. Not built like a freshman, Collier can withstand a hard hand-check once, twice, however many times is needed to either power his way with a drive or power his way with a post up.

No size of defender is capable of withstanding Collier’s force, routinely pushing bigs backwards into the paint with choppy but strong strides. Because of this, no door is truly closed for Collier.

We see again the importance of being able to get low in an instant before popping back up at will. Collier is capable of doing this with short, quick steps to better position his heavy frame, with rare lower body stability to withstand the shifting of weight.

Collier weaponizes his paint touches well, particularly improving in efficiency as the season went on. He has the second best two point shooting percentage of any high major freshman with 200+ two point attempts. In fact, of all the players since 2008 who are categorized as Scoring Guards in the barttorvik.com database, Collier shoots the best on twos. He is also sixth in assist percentage. These inside the arc numbers combined with his passing is similar, at least statistically, to De’Aaron Fox and D’Angelo Russell’s NCAA profiles.

Collier is highly creative, which combines perfectly with his paint pressure. He is capable of getting to the “flex” spots of the floor that most bend the defense, and then is inventive in finding the best thing to do with the ball. When he uses his burst directly into a high speed pass, it may lead to turnovers here and there but the reward is often wide open layups.

This creativity is a big reason why Collier can get to finishing angles inside the arc, in spite of being a limited vertical athlete.

He can simply burst by his opponent, back him down, take elongated strides, create space with an arm bar, by backpedaling, or spinning into his body, or a hip check.

When he uses his acceleration in combination with appropriate application of strength, Collier is nearly impossible to contain. That’s what we’re looking for in midrange dominance, and easy bets say Collier will do just fine getting into his strength areas at the NBA level, too.

Perimeter Dominance: Rob Dillingham, Kentucky

Rob Dillingham has taken 128 threes and made 45% of them. He has taken 98 deep twos and made 44% of them. But it’s not the efficiency that stands out, but rather how Dillingham is getting his looks. It looks like he is playing on ice skates.

Dillingham’s movement ability is impressive. Not just bursty, not just quick, but also agile, nimble, shifty. When most players would be disoriented playing with such pace and skittishness, these traits are automatic for the Kentucky freshman. With space to operate, Dillingham is the best in class at hunting for perimeter openings.

His athleticism permits him to create horizontal space: with a wide cross or tween, he can shift his weight seamlessly to cover more distance than the opponent expects out of the listed 6’3” Dillingham. His body swings violently back and forth, as Rob utilizes his true superpower: his balance.

He uses this balance (in combination, again with a tight handle) to toy with opponents, exemplifying the hunting part of out-flexing.

His athleticism also allows him to create negative space: decelerating at full speed, Dillingham is able to go from low to the ground to upright in an instant. Yet again, the balance. Not just to be able to stop on a dime, but to then *reload* for your shot, requires moving in three distinct directions (sprint forward -> decelerate to a halt -> leap forward into a shot) in a second.

The important part of Dillingham’s game is not just that he has the arsenal, but is clever in deploying it. That functionality appears automatic as he predicts where his opponent will stick their top foot, already attacking as they do.

I have harped on the importance of changing your body shape from low to high, small to big and vice-versa, but Dillingham adds dimensionality to that. When he’s in his perimeter playground, Dillingham can change from slow to fast, low to high, high to low, left to right, front to back, accelerating fast, decelerating on a dime, all of that. While closer to the basket dominance requires more power, Dillingham is both sleek and stable in hunting perimeter openings.

One additional, significant benefit to that comes in his foul-drawing. While his free throw rate is still low for a given prospect, in consideration of his predilection for distance shooting and small stature, even a 0.25 free throw rate is enough to provide another dimension of value. The aesthetics stand out again, as does the method. When Dillingham attacks, he attacks. Weaponizing his deceleration but also shiftiness in general, Dillingham is able to get into a bigger opponent’s body with ease. The physical toll is likely a lot to manage over a full NBA season, but it is an important part of the arsenal. His ability to seek out physicality keeps defenders honest as they try to blanket his perimeter space.

Defensive Dominance: Ryan Dunn, UVA

Take everything we’ve learned about offensive dominance. How sleek while bursty movement creates force. Now, try to negate it – all of it – in a single player. That player looks like Ryan Dunn.

The first important quality is stickiness. How much can you stay glued to the hip of a perimeter creator without fouling? Opponents shoot a remarkably low 22% from two on drives when guarded by Ryan Dunn. He suffocates with long strides, chopping feet to then react in an instant, sliding in lockstep with the offensive player.

It’s partially his high feel overlapping here, as his instantaneous reaction speed allows him to gamble in ways that still keep him in the play. It would be bad technique, but Dunn recovers better than anyone. His 10.6% block rate, despite being only 6’8”, speaks for itself.

His wingspan also helps to close gaps quickly. He springs into action with his 7’1” length which matches well with his burst and second jump speed. The court shrinks for Dunn, where he is a beat away from making his presence felt at any given point. This is the ideal for a defensive forward: blocking off space with length; covering space with speed.

He can withstand force, too. His lower body maintains its springiness while also being extremely durable, a rare combination. Dunn was built to prevent buckets all over the court.

On any given possession, UVA trusts Dunn to play like an aggressive strong safety, hedging, icing, blitzing, trapping, monitoring whatever gaps. Dunn has done it all as he patrols the court. Some may saw this is a negative – NBA players shouldn’t gamble with abandon like this. But that is what Dunn has been asked to do, and he performs it magnificently. We know what happens when you ramp up his activity, and it’s only good things. Despite being top 5 in the NCAA in block rate and top 50 in steal rate, Dunn only fouls three times every forty minutes. In fact, no other high major player in the barttorvik.com database has improved upon his combination of steals, blocks and foul rate, with only Nerlens Noel coming close.

Putting it all together, Dunn stops rim dominance with his length, quick first/second/third leaps and his ability to withstand force. He cuts off drives preventing access to the midrange, while also blocking off passing lanes that would create easy looks. On the perimeter he is able to stick with guards with timely sliding. His long lower legs propel him back and forth while also staying on balance after dramatic movements over a distance. He is nearly the perfect defensive wing, capable of stopping actions from any angle. The offense may be nearly nonexistent, but there are few better defensive prospects than Ryan Dunn.

The post How Prospects Outflex Their Opponent appeared first on Swish Theory.

Star Wars has the shameful second and third trilogies (Revenge of the Sith exempt here). Jurassic Park has created a lot of slop. Ghostbusters continues to churn out garbage. The Matrix creators decided a fourth movie was necessary for whatever reason. All devoid of the original magic that made them great.

The Terminator franchise is the most apt when I think about the current Warriors. The first movie was fantastic, something new the masses had yet to experience, much like the 2015 Warriors. They somehow came out stronger with T2, akin to the KD-era title teams. T3 was not as good as the first two, yet they managed to pull it off like the plucky 2022 Dubs.

Then the rebooting began, and the magic was lost. Terminator: Salvation still had their Steph Curry equivalent in Christian Bale, yet everything else failed to live up. Chris Paul did his best Sam Worthington impression, utterly without lift. Bryce Dallas Howard mailed it in like Andrew Wiggins, which I suppose makes The Village her 2022 Wiggins playoff run?

Like the IP holders of the Terminator franchise, the Warriors are faced with a choice: do we keep making the same movie and hope for a different result? Or try something new and reap the potential rewards?

The Crossroads

We’ve all seen the stories by now. Steph wants a winning situation. Klay Thompson is a free agent with suspected suitors. Draymond Green is under contract, but the patience may have run out.

It’s not as hopeless as many would make it out to be. The fans of the other 29 teams have been waiting to ring the death bell of the Warriors for some time. They tried to ring it once before, and that didn’t pan out. But even if the title hopes are gone, this team still has some meat on the bone.

Assuming the core trio stays together, the predictable outcome, GM Mike Dunleavy Jr. has things to work with. Chris Paul, Andrew Wiggins, Gary Payton II, and Kevon Looney have all made themselves expendable. That’s over $73 million that can be moved. Paul’s $30M is completely non-guaranteed, and Looney only has 3 of his $8M guaranteed, making them ideal expiring contracts to move. Wiggins is a tougher sell with one more year at $28.2M, but the right tanking team won’t mind.

I hope for Andrew’s sake that he can continue to cash the checks while spending the time with his family that he needs in these difficult past couple of years.

They’re also possessed with strong trade incentives to go with the salary. They can move at least two first-round picks with Jonathan Kuminga, Moses Moody, and even Brandin Podziemski or Trayce Jackson-Davis if they so desire. I’m not advocating for one deal or another. The point is that options are out there.

The Desired Path

I think I can speak for most Warriors fans in saying the last thing we want to see is the core being shattered this offseason. The chance of returning to a higher contending status is narrow, but it exists. The right trades and use of cap space could see them recover some of the old magic, and title #5 or no we’d all like to see them give it another try.

Equally disastrous as the nuclear option would be to continue chugging along with the current formula. Trotting out the old IP like a lazy studio executive. Make moves on the fringes, use all the draft picks to add more inexperienced talent, and continue to be content with mediocrity. That would be the path that takes a Steph trade decision out of their hands.

Retain the core. Be aggressive with trades and free agency. The rarest thing in basketball is to have a core this accomplished that starts and ends their careers together, and the fans would love to see it happen. It’s something we may never see again in the league. Riding off into the sunset with a whimper would be devastating. The front office must give them a chance to go out on their shield. Hopefully, this soul-crushing end to the season gives them the motivation needed to do so.

Let’s get something new and imaginative to put a bow on this. Don’t have next season be your Terminator: Genisys.

The post The Rebooting of the Warriors appeared first on Swish Theory.

When I evaluate a prospect’s offense, I ask myself these two questions first:

1. Will this prospect ever be a primary initiator/decision-maker?
2. If the answer to question one is no, how does he impact winning next to other primaries?

Aside from nabbing stars, locating players who contribute to winning, especially in the postseason, is what teams should seek in the draft. The vast majority of elite teams roster one (or two) players who command high usage, either as the offensive orchestrator or deadly scorer. The best players in the NBA are both.

From there, we can understand the value of drafting players with additive skills – shooting, passing and defending being the three most notable. Scouts traditionally discuss scalability, or the ability to move up and down the offensive hierarchy as needed, through the lens of three-and-D wings. 

Now more than ever, centers with expansive offensive skill sets are ubiquitous among great offenses. Going beyond the Joel Embiids and Nikola Jokics of the world, the decision-making ‘hub’ big sill feels like an undervalued archetype. The value of ones like Wendell Carter Jr, Chet Holmgren, Draymond Green and Jusuf Nurkic are clear.

Centers also must add value playing next to other ball-dominant stars, no matter the position. So how can bigs, especially non-shooting bigs, add value without the basketball? 

In the two years since I first discussed modern, scalable NBA bigs, the archetype is as crucial as ever. Big men orchestrate more and more NBA offense, burning defenses with dribble handoffs, short rolls, above-the-break threes and inside-out passing. We can evaluate and project frontcourt prospects through this lens. Centers aren’t exempt from joining the off-ball revolution. 

As I wrote before: 

“Conversations about scalability must extend beyond sharp, spacing wings. They must include these traditional-sized big men who may not be spot-up artists, but who maximize offensive harmony with flowing offense from the mid and high post.”

Maintaining a scoring threat is paramount to commanding defensive attention even for connective bigs, even more so than I realized when I wrote the first part in 2022. Many of the bigs in this archetype who do not become long-term NBA rotation staples (Trevion Williams, Jaylin Williams, etc) can’t punish defenses as a shooter or a play finisher.

Still, I see five main areas modern off-ball bigs should excel:

Advantage extender

I previously titled this category ‘short roll,’ though I think advantage extender better captures this skill. Can you punish a defense at a numbers disadvantage? Bigs who amplify their teammates’ pull-up shooting gravity and playmaking while thriving in the scramble drill match perfectly with stars. Rather than commanding possessions, they increase the odds of their advantage creation leading to points.

A key for this skill: can you command defensive attention as a scoring threat? If a playoff defense doesn’t respect a player’s scoring, they can neutralize their playmaking skill.

DHO Keep/Flow

Potent offenses seek to attain north-south movement, hoping to end as many possessions possible at the bucket, East-west flow opens up creases to run through, commandeered by bigs screening, handing off and creating with their handles. Can you compromise a fooled defense? Can coaches rely on you to initiate offense?

Close quarters finishing

Converting advantages created by stars is the easiest, most classic path to scaling down. In the case of centers, that often means finishing high-value shots at the cup and drawing fouls. Can you finish from a variety of angles with either hand? Do you have the catch radius to snare bad passes?

Force that closeout!

Shooting is a cherry on top for off-ball bigs, assuming they are true center-sized (shooting needed and height are inversely related). Bigs can compensate with their height and size, but threatening a defense from the outside and forcing them to pay attention is a plus.

Can you hit shots from different spots and different platforms? Can you force and attack a bad closeout? What about a good one?

Transition

Pushing the break after a block or rebound eliminates the need to pass to the PG, speeding up transition opportunities. Can you threaten the defense with speed as a transition attacker? Maybe more importantly, can you flow into actions and make decisions to set up teammates? 

With that out of the way, let’s discuss how the bigs of the 2024 draft class fare.

Alex Sarr: Advantage extender, DHO Keep/Flow, Force that closeout!*, Transition

From his single NBL season, Sarr grew as a functional dribbler and playmaker out of the short roll. He’s a far more confident decision-maker on the catch, punishing defenses at a numbers disadvantage with quick kicks and laydowns. Sarr doesn’t need to shoot the lights out to excel on offense, though his low volume especially is troubling.

Freakish coordination and movement skill turn Sarr’s ceiling into an endless staircase. At the moment, Sarr already burns defenders down the court after a defensive stop and wins in isolation against pro bigs. Sarr is building modern NBA offense habits, dribbling into dribble handoffs and screens as a reverse initiator.

Dribbling centers unlock offensive options and Sarr’s mobility plus the counters and creativity he already has are auspicious signs. He might not finish with strong efficiency due to his limited vertical pop, but his potential to initiate modern NBA-style actions only adds to his best-in-class upside. 

Donovan Clingan: Close-quarters finishing

Donovan Clingan’s main ways to pressure defense without the ball include screening and rolling. But without the ball, Clingan fades into the background on offense. He’s unfortunately not a great post scorer as his stiffness limits his angle carving ability. There’s no semblance of a jumper there either.

Thankfully for Clingan, his defense is phenomenal. That’s a topic for another day. We’ve seen plenty of defensive anchors succeed with limited offensive games like Gobert, Capela, Kessler etc. Clingan’s play finishing and height should always keep him somewhat afloat offensively.

Yves Missi: DHO Keep/Flow, Close-quarters finishing, Transition*

Though Yves Missi likely is closer to his 6’10 high school measurement, he plays well above his height with vertical pop and length. Catch radius is critical for lob targets and rim runners, which will be Missi’s main path to offensive value. 

Missi skies above the rim, catching passes well outside his frame for lobs and soft finishes. He’s efficient around the rim — Missi is one of 21 college basketball players this year with 50 or more dunks shooting over 70% at the rim and the only freshman to do it.

Processing speed will be a major swing skill for Missi, especially given his advanced ball-handling flashes, whipping out counters to beat bigs to the bucket and set into post position. If the feel progresses, the sky is the limit for Missi.

Daron Holmes: DHO Keep/Flow, Close-quarters finishing, Force that closeout!, Transition

The case of Daron Holmes’ draft stock is mysterious. According to the Rookie Scale consensus board, Holmes sits at 31 in the eyes of the mainstream with his spot on many prominent mocks even lower. I can’t figure out why for the life of me, especially given his snug fit in the modern game.

Offenses operate through big men more than ever, planting them as hubs for off-ball motion and simple advantage creation. And Holmes, a spacing big with a unique handle, should pique the interest of offensive coordinators. Unlike most lean perimeter-oriented bigs, Holmes possesses traditional big skills — screening, sealing, pick-and-roll defense, finishing — developing those before his metamorphosis.

Aside from spacing the floor and finishing at the rim, Holmes’ varied handle should allow him to function as a genuine hub. How many bigs in college run invert pick and roll as the ball-handler and move downhill to finish, shoot or pass?

Holmes isn’t the smoothest processor which could limit his ceiling as a playmaker. Regardless of any high-end feel limitations, the dribbling, strength and shooting could beget Naz Reid-esque offensive impact.

Kyle Filipowski: Advantage extender, DHO Keep/Flow, Close-quarters finishing, Force that closeout!*, Transition

In theory, Filipowski could easily hit all five tools of scalability. It will depend on the degree of his shooting and finishing — can Filipowski reliably force closeouts and finish through traffic? His volume and efficiency improved from deep this past season though the percentages across his career aren’t stellar. Filpowski is a good, not great finisher among centers (58.6% HC at the rim) and his limited vertical pop and stiffness could trouble him against NBA length.

If he draws defenses as a scoring threat, his passing and ball-handling are among the best in the class. He’s a passing virtuoso, firing assists from the post, on the short roll, in transition and as a primary ballhandler. Few players with Flip’s physicality and strength handle and pass how he can. His potential offensive versatility is massive.

Kel’el Ware: Close-quarters finishing, Force that closeout!

Shooting is the key to unlocking Ware’s scalability. Like a few other bigs on this list, he’s best with the ball in his hands, facing up and swiveling into shots from the post. He’s a springy vertical athlete, rendering him a seamless pairing with great passer (something he hasn’t had in college).

Ware’s three-point volume dipped, though he has a history of deep-range shooting going back to his days at Oregon and in high school. Threatening defenses as a spacer will be all the off-ball value he needs if Ware hits a high defensive outcome.

Zach Edey: Close-quarters finishing

I’m concerned about Zach Edey’s ability to scale down and impact winning without the ball in his hands. Edey’s touch is undeniable and paired with his gargantuan status, he should be a good finisher at the next level. But when passes don’t feed Edey post touches, how does he contribute in a meaningful way?

Historically, high-usage college players who aren’t great passers tend to fail. Take this Barttorvik query of college players with +30% usage and -15% assist rate:

It’s a mixed group, with one mega-star and a few busts. Aside from the Boogie outlier, the ones who stuck in the league shot the ball and spaced the floor (McDermott, Warren). How will Zach Edey share the floor with ball-dominant players? If he improves his processing speed, Edey could connect teammates and extend plays rather than finish them. If not, he feels like a microwave scorer sixth man at his ceiling.

Oso Ighodaro: Advantage extender, DHO Keep/Flow

Does unathletic Brandon Clarke pique your interest? That’s the question we’re pondering about Oso Ighodaro, In theory, his connective skills are abundant — Oso’s floater game is advanced (54.5% on runners) and he’s a capable passer to cutters from a handoff. There’s a recipe for a useful release valve, especially with a pull-up shooting threat.

Ighodaro struggles to elevate through contact and his finishing in the restricted area. He doesn’t space the floor. If Ighodaro can’t threaten defenses as a scorer, he likely won’t stick. But if the floater hints at shooting development, Ighodaro could find a role as a valuable rotation player, lubricating his team’s offensive flow.

Jonathan Mogbo: DHO Keep/Flow, Close-quarters finishing, Transition

Jonathan Mogbo is a dunk machine. Only two players in the country dunked more than Mogbo, whose NBA intrigue comes largely from his bounce and explosion. With a capable handle, Mogbo flashed pro vision and some high-post chops. Gen-Z Kenneth Faried juices up offenses with great passers.

Watching Mogbo in person further illuminated his stature. Despite being fairly short at 6’7, Mogbo is a brick wall with springs in his shoes. Mogbo snags balls out of the air like a wide receiver. He operated primarily from the post, so working to extend advantages will help him find a home in an NBA rotation. There’s some wacko creator upside if Mogbo truly harnesses his handle to maximize his athletic gifts, expanding his possible utility to on and off the ball.

The post Defining Scalable Bigs appeared first on Swish Theory.

The 3-point revolution was always coming to the NBA. It took a while, but by the time Steph Curry and the Golden State Warriors ascended, the train had already left the station. Curry merely became the face of the movement, and why not? Whether fans realized it at the time, his volume and efficiency from deep wasn’t the foundation, it was the result. He moved like nobody else, ripping off absurd dribble combinations with the ball or re-defining the art of screen-usage away from it. But he is not the sole forefather of modern hoops. Curry is an anomaly. The greats always are.

Caitlin Clark’s impending selection at #1 by the Indiana Fever in the 2024 WNBA Draft is not the genesis of the next era of women’s basketball; it’s been coming for a while. The Clark-less 2023 WNBA season set viewership records all over the place, and will continue to do so as the next generation of hoopers set to dazzle us. Just look at the talent-pool that will remain in the NCAA next season.

The talent boom is here, and as evolution goes, it was made possible by the singular talents of the past, names who new women’s hoops fans (many introduced by Clark) may not be familiar with, but are unknowingly reaping the benefits of. 

Caitlin Clark The Phenomenon is a cocktail of the work done by past legends, which has led to exploding interest in the women’s game, in part thanks to social media, which fixates on her must-see matchups at Iowa, which needed a formidable dancing partner. But the key ingredient is Caitlin Clark The Player, as dazzling as she is effective.

The ease with which Clark flings 30-footers both off-the-dribble and off-the-catch creates defensive emergencies near half-court. Clark then has both the ball-handling flexibility and passing chops to access the best response to any coverage, not to mention, she’s six-feet tall. In each of her last three seasons at Iowa, she grabbed over seven boards a game, which ignited the Hawkeyes’ transition game thanks to Clark’s ability to throw 70-foot outlets for layups. She is a terrifying offense unto herself.

None of her individual skills are entirely unprecedented, but the whole package just might be. Caitlin Clark likely isn’t the greatest WNBA prospect ever, nor the greatest raw talent ever. But she is an anomaly, and that’s why she’s going #1.

Lucas Kaplan

2. Cameron Brink, Stanford

Cameron Brink’s intersection of 2-way paint dominance and scoring versatility is virtually unprecedented. A likely #1 pick in a typical draft class, she pairs a refined drop big skillset with touch indicators that suggest elite playfinishing upside on the other end. 

On offense, Brink projects to contribute primarily with the ball out of her hands. She served as an offensive focal point for Stanford, taking on a heavy playmaking load (2.8 assists/2.4 turnovers in 25 mpg) operating out of the post, but it seems more likely she evolves into a do-it-all connector at the next level. Perhaps not the physical outlier it takes to be a go-to WNBA post scorer, her touch from the perimeter and reliability as an interior finisher should allow Brink to maintain a diverse shot profile. 

While her jumper inconsistency points to limitations as a scorer, Brink has all the tools to be effective on a play-to-play basis. She dominates the offensive glass to the tune of three boards per game, and can be deployed in a variety of ways. In any given set, Brink can be found setting physical screens, spacing from three or rolling to the basket, effective across the board even if not elite. Most of all, Brink plays with a good sense of how to bend a defense, and plays with her trademark intensity to carry ideas out.

Brink is a monster rim protector, leading the NCAA in blocks while being second in defensive boards. At 6’4’’ with a 6’8″ wingspan, Brink can cover massive amounts of territory quickly, and she pairs this with an aggressive help style, not afraid to leave her feet. This can lead to foul trouble, with three or more fouls for the majority of her games this season, but also allows her to be an intimidating deterrent to keeping out of her lane.

The figures are staggering for Brink: opponents shot a miniscule 39% at the rim when she was on the floor compared to 54% when she was off. Stanford gave up 77 points per 100 possessions with her on the court compared to 95 when she was off. It is not just the tape – where she can be seen soaring and destroying shot attempts – which prove she can lead a very good WNBA defense. Let Brink sit in drop defense, or even a high drop and let her cover the entire paint. While her lateral mobility is good rather than great, her length, effort and timing make it so that hardly matters.

Cameron Brink finds herself at #2 for two reasons: Caitlin Clark is in this class, and no other player can contribute as much on day one while still providing sky-high upside. As dominant as they get in the interior, Brink will terrorize opponents for years to come. Should her shot continue to develop and offense branch out, it is difficult to project how high Brink’s impact could be. Don’t underestimate the floor or the ceiling.

Oscar

3. Rickea Jackson, Tennessee

To keep it simple, Rickea Jackson is a walking bucket. However, her scoring arsenal is the absolute opposite of simple. Jackson’s top 4 scoring possession types this season were pick and roll, post-ups, spot-ups, and transition. Her scoring frequency in these possessions goes as follows: 86 pick and roll possessions, 86 post-ups, 84 spot-ups, and 80 transition possessions. If you created a pie chart of Rickea’s scoring distribution, she would have four nearly even slices in these four categories, which is incredibly rare for dominant scorers. What makes this even more impressive is that she is labeled “good” or above in all 4 (being 70th percentile or higher in three out of the four). There are players who are jack of all trades, master of none as scorers, but I would say that Rickea is a jack of all trades with the potential of becoming a master of all.

Another stat that puts her scoring dominance into perspective: Rickea Jackson has led her respective teams (Mississippi State and Tennessee) in scoring for the last five seasons. Looking closer at her scoring tools, Rickea is currently blossoming into a three-level scorer. She is one of the best rim scorers in this draft, converting on 66.4% of her 197 attempts around the basket. Jackson displays excellence in both finishing off drives and on post-ups, as her touch and ability to finish through contact are quite advanced. She has incredibly impressive stride length, burst and functional strength, allowing her to get into the lane with ease. Rickea combines these eye-popping athletic traits with her technical skills in generating advantages off rip-throughs and ball control when making finishing adjustments. This culmination of abilities is an absolute nightmare for any matchup she faces, and is a big reason for her general scoring dominance.

When the rim is rarely walled off by opposing defenders, Rickea can go to her favorite counter: the short mid-range. Jackson shot 42.7% on 96 short mid-range attempts this year, which is such a vital counter for scorers in the WNBA. She does a great job of recognizing when to initiate contact to get into these shots and is very good at perceiving open shooting windows. Jackson is also comfortable pulling up for long 2s as well, and she was in the 66th percentile in efficiency on these shots this past season. As for her outside jumper, Rickea Jackson has made lots of progress on this shot in the last five seasons. Since her freshman year, she has nearly tripled her volume of three point attempts while shooting 32.6% from outside this past season. She profiles as primarily a catch and shoot threat from deep, though she has shown flashes of three point pull-up shooting as well.

On the other side of the ball, Jackson is a solid wing/forward defender who is capable of taking on tough assignments. Jackson’s large offensive load has led to some inconsistencies from her defense in the past, but she seems to be finding the intersection between the high offensive volume and steady defense. She’s a quick lateral mover and is able to use her length to disturb ball handlers. Defensive rebounding is a strong suit of Jackson’s, as she aggressively attacks the glass and can get rebounds over taller players. 

All in all, Rickea Jackson’s game should translate seamlessly to the WNBA level, and the reasons above are why I believe she deserves to be a top 3 pick in the 2024 WNBA draft.

Josh Abercrombie

4. Kamilla Cardoso, South Carolina

Kamilla Cardoso is always in control while staying dynamic, executing an essential role for the national champion South Carolina Gamecocks. The 6’7’’ big was the low post hub for Dawn Staley’s squad, posting and reposting with perhaps the best hands in class. Despite not starting until her senior season, Cardoso did not miss a beat, putting up per 100 possession numbers of 31 points, 21 rebounders and 5.3 blocks on 61% true shooting.

Cardoso’s size and athleticism bode well for her ability to fit in at the next level. She uses her length to wrangle in awry passes or block difficult shots, but more importantly has the sensibility for how her presence fits into scheme. She does not linger with the ball nor get complacent on the defensive side, making quick, fruitful decisions for her team.

In particular, I am optimistic in Cardoso’s ability to be a high-low threat. Her skill in the post allows her to get to the backboard, slipping past her defender, in the 88th percentile for layup efficiency on 289 attempts. But just as important is her passing acumen, slinging the ball with velocity and accuracy either to shooters spotting up form low post or entry passes from the high post. This ability prevents hard help from any angle.

Cardoso may not set the agenda on either side like the players higher up on this list. But she is extremely likely to be a useful WNBA player, already proven to execute at the highest adequacy possible at the collegiate level. Her interior dominance will translate, as will her general athleticism and feel for the game. A high floor prospect who can give starter minutes right away, I view her as the #3 player in the class, #4 on our consensus board.

Matt Powers

5. Aaliyah Edwards, Connecticut

In her senior season for the UConn Huskies, Aaliyah Edwards was the team’s unsung hero in their run to the Final 4. Bringing an incredibly versatile skillset to the table, she averaged 32.6 points, 17.1 rebounds, 3.8 assists, 3.1 steals, and 1.8 blocks per 100 possessions this season. Edwards has a unique way of leaving an impact on every single possession, boasting a degree of role malleability that is only rivaled by the game’s brightest stars.

Offensively, Edwards was often seen as both a playmaking hub out of the high post and as a play finisher. With excellent touch and a knack for creating contact, post-up scoring has become a massive strength for her. Over 117 post-up possessions this year, she shot 67.4% and generated 1.197 points per possession (PPP), ranking in the 96th percentile in efficiency. By scoring in the low, mid and high post alike, she can be deployed as a scorer from many spots despite her lack of a three point shot. As a primarily standstill shooter, she converted 36.4% of her 83 long mid-range attempts this season. This standstill jumper threat allows her to attack bigs off the dribble when they close out too aggressively, allowing her to get into her driving game.

Within UConn’s delay sets, Edwards was almost always the team’s ball handler at the top of the key when in the game. She excelled at making schemed reads in the flow of the offense, such as executing high-low passes, hitting 45 cutters in stride, and executing dribble handoffs. Her excellence in dribble handoff situations stems from an outstanding ability to make contact on screens and a keen sense for angles. Moreover, her capability to keep the ball in these situations and drive to the basket sets her apart from most DHO bigs. Coordination, functional handle, touch around the rim, and the ability to pass out are essential for a DHO big, and she absolutely exceeds in all of these requirements.

Defensively, Edwards did a magnificent job this season anchoring the second-best Power 5 defense in the country. One area that she excels in is her pick and roll coverage versatility, as she is capable of executing nearly any coverage there is. She can temporarily switch onto ball-handlers, hard hedge, and play a deep drop due to her combination of mobility and feel for space. When defending drives, her strength, lateral quickness, and active hands all pop off the screen, as she is able to shut off potential layups around the basket. She is also a solid rim protector when playing down low, though her 3.5% block rate may not stack up to some of the other anchors in this draft. As a result, she makes up for a lower block rate with a 3.1% steal rate. Edwards is great at intercepting poor post entry passes, a microskill that will certainly translate to the pros. Finally, her help instincts are very strong, as she consistently makes necessary rotations to prevent points from being scored.

Josh Abercrombie

6. Jacy Sheldon, Ohio State

Jacy Sheldon is a dynamic, offensively skilled guard with the Ohio State Buckeyes. She brings great two-way value and will slide in well for many different team constructs, as she figures to be a top-10 pick in the upcoming WNBA Draft after a solid college career.

Offensively, Sheldon fills the role of “combo guard” to a tee, being capable of playing across both guard positions with her ability to be a value-add at the point guard position by helping to move the ball in transition, make solid reads in early offense, and get a team into their sets. However, in my opinion she trends more towards being an off-guard with her ability to shoot the ball from range at a steady clip (37% from three on 5 attempts a contest this past season) and mainly scoring-focused play on that end. Although just 5’10”, she plays much bigger than her size offensively, showcasing the ability to get downhill and finish through contact. I think offensively Sheldon is truly a three-level scorer.

Defensively, although Sheldon’s steal numbers are slightly inflated due to Ohio State’s propensity to utilize a full court press as their main defense, she is still very active and disruptive on that end. She makes the most of her great physical tools and basketball instincts to stay in front of drivers, provide effective help defense, and monitor the passing lanes to pick off errant passes. Sheldon’s screen navigation skills are also solid, and just like Sheldon plays bigger than her height offensively, she plays longer than her length defensively, mixing her speed and athleticism to cause issues for offensive players.

Jacy Sheldon comes into the WNBA a ready-made player that will be able to contribute immediately. With the star power at the top of the draft she may not pop off the proverbial page the same way, and superstar upside is more than likely not in the cards. However, as a solid player who brings a winning mentality and great skillset as a player, Sheldon is almost guaranteed to be in the league for a long time.

Corban Ford

7. Angel Reese, LSU

Angel Reese’s strengths are obvious when she’s on the court: she plays with determination and she’s a leader. While these are soft skills, I’d argue they inform her technique. Reese uses her energy and exuberant posture to effect all events, big or small. Her passing stands out, but more the chaos of it, as she whips the ball across the court, totally unexpected. No player in the class (with an obvious exception) is more capable of keeping the opponent on their toes, or else they’re in trouble.

The cornerstone of Reese’s game, however, is the defense. Producing three stocks per game, Reese applies her strength with force, attacking the ball no matter the location. There is an elegance to her chaos that puts the opponent on their back heels. This frenetic intensity is perfect to keep the offense guessing, deterring shots through intimidation as much as technique. But, especially on defense, she has the latter, too.

The offense is not as polished, though ‘not as polished’ still provided 19 points per game. The finishing is the concern, at only 42nd percentile at the rim, and ultimately keeps her out of my top 5. But you’re drafting her for her defense, anyways, and she still maintained average or better efficiency on post-ups (though barely), putbacks, transition and cuts. She can win on the offensive end too, purely through effort.

Angel Reese’s athleticism at 6’3’’ and effort to produce make her a worthy first round pick. If the touch somehow comes around some more (she’s up to 73% from the line), the 2023 NCAA tournament champion and Most Outstanding Player would be worthy of top six consideration.

Matt Powers

8. Alissa Pili, Utah

There are few more fun players in college basketball than Alissa Pili. While short for her position as a power forward, Pili more than makes up for it with her strength and creative application of that strength. In any given possession she could be found twirling into an opponent’s stomach, either carving space for a drive, sealing off in the post, getting position for rebounds, etc. She has a knack for jumping at the perfect moment to snag a board from a big with better position. She is one of the most compelling players to watch for these reasons.

Oh, she is also a bucket. Averaging over 20 points for the second straight season, Pili shot at the 89th percentile at the rim, 93rd percentile off the catch and 95th percentile off the dribble. She was 89th percentile at the rim and 82% from the line. Raising her three point attempts from 2 to 4 per game, cashing 40%, she provided valuable spacing for the Utah Utes.

This scoring and, especially, spacing is essential to her success at the WNBA level. Her clear weakness is foot speed in space, where I’d be anxious to see Pili guarding anywhere near the perimeter (even in spite of her well-timed swipes). But spacing the floor to this degree means you have to beat Pili at her game first.

Pili is not just a dazzlingly fun watch, but also flat out can play. Her team was 20 points better in net rating with her on the court, and she was top ten in the country in Regularized Adjusted Plus-Minus (RAPM). The W adaptation might take a minute, but the upside – especially as a scorer – is worth the first-round shot. 

Matt Powers

9. Nyadiew Puoch, Southside Flyers

One imagines Nyadiew Puoch’s WNBA role similar to that with the Southside Flyers: low usage, high activity. Despite showing some signs of handle, passing and scoring, there are too many rough edges in Puoch’s current game, technical details that need fixing, to expect any significant contribution right away. But if she could keep developing, perhaps by continuing to play overseas after being drafted, there is the outline of a solid WNBA contributor.

Puoch’s athleticism is the ceiling-raiser, with great mobility which combines well with consistent effort. In particular this shows on the defensive end, where her long wingspan and constant motion make areas of the court treacherous for her opponent. This athleticism and effort can be misguided, however, applied at the wrong time by accidentally walling off a teammate or turning her head at the wrong time. Normal issues for a 19 year old playing in a pro league, but issues nonetheless that would limit her WNBA immediacy.

Similar to her defensive strengths, the offense runs through activity and event creation, and also needs some polish. She is a constant blur of motion at her 6’3’’ size, circumventing an opponent with ease on cuts or in transition. While she should have no issue creating looks with this activity, and, it should be noted, her flashes of handle, it’s the finishing that is questionable. Puoch only shot 40% from the field, even while receiving these easier looks heading towards the rim. Her 67% from the line suggests the same: there is something to work with, even if the current result isn’t perfect.

Puoch has displayed this upside through scoring outbursts here and there, and, most importantly, pushes her creativity through sometimes adventurous passes or drives. But when it clicks, it really clicks, and one imagines the potential should her accuracy and feel improve even only a little bit. Early minutes would be difficult to come by, but with any additional development, Puoch could make her presence felt. If one of the handle, shot or passing continues to improve, Puoch could see real starter minutes. For this reason, she is a Swish first round pick.

Matt Powers

10. Charisma Osborne, UCLA

Charisma Osborne has one skill representative of her overall game: she is the best screen runner in class. When you try to knock Osborne out of a play, she hits you with speed first, getting low with flexibility but keeping her strength to stay on her path. She accelerates from there, with textbook closeout form. She has the tools, and the feel, and the technique. And you don’t want to mess with her.

Osborne was the best player on the 27-7 Bruins, where they had a +49 net rating (yes, net rating not plus-minus) when she was on the court, 21 points better than when off. While her three point percentage is disappointing for a guard, she is not without technique: she shot a shocking 90% from the line and an effective 71st percentile on 140 off-the-dribble jumpers. On 110 spots up, 91st percentile. She was 71st percentile on finishes, too: maintaining good but not great touch. When you take into consideration the shot context, her 32% three point percentage looks a lot less concerning.

But the real plus-value comes from everything else. The defense and defensive versatility (2x Pac-12 All Defense) mixed in with the ball distribution (2.1 assist to turnover ratio) make her the perfect connector. She can spark an offense by driving, too, and was strong out of the pick and roll (85th percentile on 100 possessions). 

While she faced some issues with scoring consistency due to lacking access to bankable buckets, she is always consistent in her effort and finding other ways to contribute. She may not look like a franchise cornerstone, but Osborne can raise the ceiling of a very good team, or keep a very good defense tied together with her activity and athleticism. These factors all make Osborne a Swish first round pick, and even higher on my personal board.

Matt Powers

11. Elizabeth Kitley, Virginia Tech

Elizabeth Kitley’s draft stock will be a tricky evaluation for WNBA teams to make. She was one of the most productive and dominant players in all of college basketball last year, but she suffered a season ending ACL tear late in the 2022-2023 NCAA season, putting her ability to play her rookie season in jeopardy. Despite this setback, I believe that Kitley deserves to be a first round pick and fully expect her to bounce back stronger than ever.

Kitley’s superpower comes in post scoring – she racked up 303 post-up possessions this year and scored 300 points from these possessions. Before she even receives the ball, Kitley has an innate sense of when to duck in and where to initiate contact to carve out easy scoring opportunities. After Kitley receives the ball, she gets to put her impeccable footwork on display. Her patented move is her Dirk fadeaway, as her height and precise touch makes this an absolutely unguardable move. On 109 mid-range jumpers this season (mostly Dirk fades), Kitley shot a whopping 54.1%, including 59.5% on 37 long mid-range attempts. Pairing this with her 70.7% shooting around the rim, and defenses are almost forced to double her.

Teams all year had to pack the paint and double Kitley from a variety of locations, triggering double teams from areas all over the court. Some bigs struggle to respond to this, but Kitley did a good job of taking advantage of the attention she received. She showed a solid feel of passing out of double teams this season, as she displayed the ability to hit the open player to create a numbers advantage for Virginia Tech. 

Detractors of Kitley’s pro prospects cite her lack of mobility on defense as a potential swing skill for her. I am a bit less worried about this, as whatever team selects her will likely play her in a deep drop like she played at Virginia Tech. Even when she does have to cover drivers in face-up situations, she is fairly good at flipping her hips if she gets initially beat. While around the rim, Kitley is a great shot-blocker, using her length and great ball tracking to erase potential scoring opportunities. 

Kitley may not end up being a team’s primary scorer like she was for Virginia Tech, but I fully trust her ability to scale down and provide productive minutes for any team that selects her. She has the upside to take advantage of switching defenses with her post work, and can still be a big time late-clock scoring threat due to her fadeaway.

Josh Abercrombie

12. Celeste Taylor, Ohio State

Celeste Taylor is a defensive minded guard entering the draft from Ohio State after a solid college career that included stops at both Texas and Duke. The 5’11” guard is a chaos agent on the defensive end, generating deflections and steals at a high rate and using solid lateral quickness and speed to keep in front of the main offensive perimeter players of opposing teams, staying attached even through various off-ball actions and around any screens that she may encounter. Taylor’s defense is extremely impactful, and that skillset alone will guarantee her rotation minutes at the next level.

Offensively, Taylor’s swing skill is her jump shot. Once a relatively big weakness, she has improved her outside shooting each year over her college career (from 28% to 33% from three), and in addition to doing so she has also grown as a shot maker and advantage creator on the offensive end. Her mid-range game is smooth and she does a good job operating in that space, especially off of ball screens, and she can find open teammates adequately. With that being said, as disruptive as Taylor is defensively, the offensive game will have to improve to achieve the higher end outcome as a player in the WNBA.

Taylor will be a positive player with her defensive versatility and ability to function as a very scalable role player at the next level. Her improvement as a jump shooter suggests that there is continued growth to be had, and if she is able to continue to develop that in addition to being an advantage creator defensively, then Celeste Taylor can prove to be one of the great steals of draft, either late in the first round, or early in the second.

Corban Ford

13. Leila Lacan, Angers

Leila Lacan ends up as the #13 prospect on our big board, but this was not a consensus placement. I touted Lacan as the #5 prospect on my personal board, easily the highest of any contributor.

Even Lacan’s detractors will note the sell is quite easy. Lacan will turn 20 on June 2, and has been a key contributor for the French club Angers, which competes in the country’s top-tier league. In both league and FIBA play, Lacan has shown glimpses of every skill you could want from a big-time combo guard at 5’11”.

Lacan is a plus-athlete for her size, winning at the offensive point-of-attack by adding a plus-handle to impressive speed and length. From there, Lacan has shown the ability to hit any passing read that the defense gives her, whether it’s a pocket pass, a skip, hitting cutters, you name it. On the other end, she puts her tools to good use, leading the French league in steals this season with 3.2 a game versus just 2.5 fouls.

But as a devout believer, I admit the sell against Lacan in the first-round is also easy to make. She’s 19, yes, but her youth serves more as a point of comfort vs. genuine excitement. It’s a reason to ignore her shooting in the low-40s from two and, despite multiple games with deep, pull-up triples, shooting in the low-30s from three.

Lacan is the shiny mystery box of the 2024 WNBA Draft, a young prospect whose highlight reel is deserving of a lottery pick. Only 19! Perhaps I’ve been duped, too focused on what could be than what actually is. There’s no guarantee Leila Lacan puts it all together; for all the intrigue, she’s hardly ahead of schedule as a prospect. 

So, who’s gonna take the chance?

Lucas Kaplan

14. Helena Pueyo, Arizona

Helena Pueyo, a 5th year senior out of Arizona, has a case for best perimeter defender in this year’s WNBA draft. Her ability to make plays defensively jumps out both on film and the stat sheet, averaging a staggering 4.1 stocks (steals + blocks) in her final year of college. She’s able to rack up steals, blocks, and deflections so easily thanks to incredible hand-eye coordination and natural defensive instincts off the ball. 

Pueyo also developed into a solid offensive player over her time in college, albeit a low usage one. She’s a dependable shooter from both 3pt and midrange, capable of making shots both off-the-dribble and in catch and shoot scenarios. She’s also a good passer, despite not being a great creator overall, and is very adept at keeping the ball moving and making good decisions within the flow of offense. Helena’s real strength offensively, though, is as a finisher, where she made real growth as an upperclassmen. Despite mediocre finishing numbers throughout her first 3 years in college Pueyo shot an outstanding 75% at the rim her final two seasons, one of the highest numbers in this year’s draft. Overall, her lack of high-end ball handling or athleticism holds Pueyo back from being a threatening on-ball creator, but she has a very strongskill set for fitting into a complementary offensive role. 

Pueyo doesn’t project to be a star, but she’s very good at what she does. Between her tenacious defense and the offensive skillset to compliment other players, it’s not hard to envision her as a reliable perimeter role player in the W. 

AJ Carter

15. Nika Mühl, Connecticut

When you think of Nika Mühl’s game two things immediately come to mind: passing and defense. A 2x Big East DPOY, Mühl is an outstanding perimeter defender. She doesn’t rack up steals at as high of a rate as other guard defenders, but her ability to defend one-on-one is about as good as it gets. She’s hard to create separation against on the perimeter, fights over screens well, and isn’t afraid to play with toughness and physicality when cross-matched onto larger players. Despite UConn losing to Iowa in the tournament this year, Mühl’s defense against Caitlin Clark was truly outstanding in that game. Mühl is also an incredible passer and playmaker for others, backed by the fact that she’s UConn’s all-time leader in assists – obviously a tremendous accomplishment at a school as storied as UConn. 

The main area of weakness for Mühl right now is as a scorer. She isn’t very aggressive looking for her own shot and actually has more assists than points scored over the last 2 seasons, which is rare to see. The positive for Mühl though is that she does possess enough of a skillset as a scorer to where teams still have to respect her. She shot 36% from 3pt for her career at UConn including over 40% as a senior, so it’s not as if defenses can just leave her open on the perimeter. She also finishes at the rim at an above average rate and is comfortable making an open mid-range jumper, so it’s clear that Mühl can make shots from various spots on the floor when needed despite not looking to shoot much. 

All things considered Mühl has a valuable skill set despite never posting eye-popping numbers in college. She’s an outstanding defender and passer, can make open shots, and is backed by a very impressive college resume. That package of skills and pedigree makes Mühl an intriguing prospect to watch and worthy of a draft pick. 

AJ Carter

16. Dyaisha Fair, Syracuse

From the WNBA’s inaugural season in 1997 until the 2022-2023 season, ten players had joined the illustrious 3,000 points club. Seven of them went on to be all-stars in the WNBA, with many of them establishing themselves as some of the WNBA’s best. This past season, two new players entered the 3,000 points club: projected #1 overall pick Caitlin Clark and Syracuse’s Dyaisha Fair. 

Selecting one of the most productive scorers in college basketball’s long history seems to be good draft process, and it also seems to be strong process to select one of the most prolific pull-up shooters in college basketball history as well. Dyaisha Fair fits into both of these categories. Fair was first in the country in points per game off pull-up jumpers this season at 10.6 ppg, 1.3 ppg higher than the tie for second place between Caitlin Clark and Juju Watkins (the top two scorers in all of college basketball). Among the leaders in pull-up three point attempts per game, Fair ranks second overall in pull-up three point attempts per game while shooting an incredible 39.7% on these looks. The next player shooting as efficiently or more efficiently on pull-up threes as Fair ranks 29th in pull-up 3 point frequency, shooting under half the amount of attempts of Fair. She is able to get into these looks off a variety of size-up combinations, but her most effective move may be her mis-direction stepback. This move blends synergistically with her effective between the legs move, which she often uses to open up driving lanes. 

More on pull-up shooting, Fair’s pull-up mid-range continues to be an important counter for her. Fair is more than capable of knocking down incredibly difficult mid-range attempts, often patiently double clutching on shots to avoid the outstretched arms of her defender. The threat of her mid-range helps her create easier looks around the basket, as defenders have to guard incredibly close to her at all times. Fair is a very creative finisher around the basket, making super difficult adjustments to open up looks at the basket.

The skill that brings together her incredible mix of scoring tools is her unbelievable handle. Fair’s career highlights are full of ankle breakers that would be many players’ best career plays. She is unbelievably shifty with the ball in her hands, creating easy driving lanes and open shooting windows. However, she is also more than capable of creating for others. One of my favorite microskills of Fair’s is her ability to rise up into a jumper, only to throw a dump-off pass at the apex of her jump. Her scoring prowess demands tons of attention from the defense, and she is quite good at finding teammates in advantageous scoring positions.

People that are low on Fair always talk about her short stature, but this has never stopped Fair from reaching the highest heights in basketball. They also tend to cite her defense as a weakness going forward, but Fair has some valuable defensive traits that will go a long way for her. For starters, Fair is a ball-hawk on defense, often making tough plays on the ball in passing lanes. Her quickness and instincts allow her to make these plays, and on the ball she is able to disturb ball-handlers with her quick hands. Fair is finally beginning to deservingly receive praise as a potential WNBA prospect, and I believe she can make an instant impact for any team that selects her.

Josh Abercrombie

17. Isobel Borlase, Adelaide

It is an uphill battle to be a dribble-pass-shoot threat in the WNBA, given the saturation of talent at the top. It is very difficult to get on-ball reps, especially as a young player, which gives me some hesitancy in projecting Isobel Borlase to get the development she needs against the highest competition in the world. But she has shown flashes of elite scoring and productivity against professional competition that suggests the payoff may be worth it.

As a starter on the Adelaide Lightning, Borlase gets daily experience playing next to and against WNBA players, most notably having as teammate the Chicago Sky’s Brianna Turner. While her outside shooting efficiency has been mediocre – only shooting 28% from three and 74% from the line – she has shown real signs of rim finishing through attacking the rim on the move. 

Borlase is a creative passer and effective ball-mover, even if she averages more turnovers than assists. The heightened competition compared to NCAA basketball makes efficiency production tougher to come by. But Borlase has shown stretches of dominance, putting up 31 point (on 12-16 shooting) and 25 point (on 7-13 shooting) games this season. The consistency needs improvement but is no surprise to lack in a 19 year old.

Betting on Borlase means you have space to allow her to continue to explore her versatile scoring and budding on-ball equity, trusting her to iron out the details over time. A solid athlete at 5’11’’, Borlase’s ability to fit in against competition above her years is a great sign she’ll figure it out in the WNBA, too.

Matt Powers

18. Kiki Jefferson, Louisville

Kiki Jefferson, like the other guard prospects given second-round grades on our big board, has flaws. But Jefferson is a well-rounded five-year college player that made the jump from James Madison to Louisville for her final year, and while her averages went down, no longer the alpha, Jefferson improved.

She shot 51.2% on twos, which is where the majority of her offense could come from in the W. She has a release built for the mid-range, and at 6’1” with serious core strength, Jefferson can get to that shot when she wants or drive to the rim, where she shot 54.3% last season, according to Synergy.

Jefferson shot 34.5% on catch-and-shoot threes last season, taking just over two per game, occasionally reluctant to fire but hardly looking incompetent when she did. Those looking for optimism with Jefferson’s shot can point to her career free-throw mark of 81.5%, which jumped to 88.4% at Louisville.

None of this is wildly impressive, to be sure. Nor is the 2.3:2.1 assist:turnover ratio. The sell for Jefferson, my #14 prospect, is simple: She’s malleable. There’s more offensive talent to work with than, say Nika Mühl, but she possesses all the tools to reasonably hold her own on defense. Jefferson may not set up your offense on every possession, but you’ll feel comfortable with her handling in transition.

Kiki Jefferson is a multi-talented hooper. She just needs a bona-fide WNBA skill to pop. Will any team give her the chance?

Lucas Kaplan

19. Taiyanna Jackson, Kansas

Taiyanna Jackson may not be the most versatile player in this draft, but she does have one elusive quality: she protects the rim, and very well. At 6’6’’, Jackson was dominant on the defensive interior. Opponents shot 27% against her at the rim, only one percentage point higher than likely early first round pick Kamilla Cardoso. She blocked 6.5 shots per 100 possessions, exceeding even that of Cardoso, using her long wingspan and long strides to make plays from distance.

She has some significant holes in her game, most notably her careless passing, at a 0.2 assist-to-turnover ratio, as well as her free throw shooting at 49%. But she has a presence on the interior on offense, as well, a 95th percentile finisher at the rim. If a team can hone in on these strengths and limit her role to her specialties, she could outperform.

Athleticism can get you on the court and Jackson has that in spades, a fluid mover for her size who engulfs opponents to snag the ball on either glass, and is mobile enough to patrol the entirety of the paint. You can trust her to deter shots on defense and pressure the rim on offense. These are bankable traits, even when considering the weaknesses.

A team needing a backup rim protector who can post up and crash the glass should take a long look at Jackson after the first round. While she lands near the end of our board, her tools are strong enough for her to return value far above, especially if she can clean up the weaknesses.

Matt Powers

20. Hannah Jump, Stanford

Scheme versatility is essential to a functioning WNBA offense, but most important is the ability to execute generally. With constant off-ball motion and dedicated actions, having a player you can trust to do her job is monumental. Enter Hannah Jump.

She may not be the most well-rounded in her game, with assists, rebounds, steals and blocks all below NCAA average. She has one of the lowest free throw rates I have ever seen, taking a career 68 free throws compared to 1,195 field goals. But she also hardly makes mistakes, noted by a very strong 2.5 assist to turnover ratio. Those are players you can work with.

While she plays a passive role, she is also an important play finisher. She is Stanford’s leading three point shooter in the history of the program, with 364 made threes out of 890 attempts to hit a stellar 40% efficiency. She doesn’t just shoot off the catch, though she does at an excellent 94th percentile rate, but also off the dribble. The threat of her running off of screens is compounded by having to stop her off of handoffs, in pick and roll, spotting up in transition. Her three point versatility is as important as the volume. 

As a specialist with many limitations, Hannah Jump isn’t likely to be a WNBA starter, and has an uphill battle to be a role player. But with bankable skills shooting from distance and limited mistake-making, she has a chance. For that reason, she finds herself in Swish Theory’s top 20.

Matt Powers

The post Swish Theory’s 2024 WNBA Draft Board appeared first on Swish Theory.

Scouting Report on Top Florida and California High School Prospects in 2024 Montverde Academy Invitational Tournament and Hoophall Classic Title Game featuring film breakdowns from NBA and data visualizations using Cerebro Sports’ analytics.

How often do two #1 draft prospects face off in the same game?

Now ask yourself what the chances are of the #1 rated prospects in three separate classes playing in the same game, let alone doing so twice in one season.

The number one senior, Cooper Flagg (2024); the number one junior, AJ Dybantsa (2025); and the number one sophomore, Tyran Stokes (2026) all sit atop their respective big boards, projected to be the top NBA Draft picks in the near future.

Their teams, Montverde and Prolific Prep, matched up twice this season: the 2024 MAIT Championship and the Hoophall Classic, the first time in the history of hoops that ESPN aired a game featuring #1 prospects from 3 different draft classes.

(graphic via ESPN)

The Teams

Montverde Academy
Prolific Prep
Oak Ridge
Brewster Academy
Calvary Christian
DME Academy
Riviera Prep
The Rock School
Imani Christian

The Players

Cooper Flagg, AJ Dybantsa, Tyran Stokes
Asa Newell, Liam McNeeley, Shon Abaev
Jordan Tillery, Elijah Crawford, Rob Wright
Tyler Johnson, Ryan Jones Jr., Dante Allen
Derik Queen, Alden Sherrell, Moustapha Thiam
Dwayne Aristode, Winters Grady, Cameron Simpson
Mikey Lewis, Curtis Givens, Nojas Indrusaitis, Zoom Diallo

The Numbers

Let’s look at Cerebro Sports’ data to compare different impact metrics kept track by Cerebro to evaluate the stats from the Montverde Academy Invitational Tournament’s standout players.

To find the best players from the tournament overall, let’s compare overall impact (C-RAM) and defensive statistical impact (DSI) to show the most impactful two-way players who impact winning the most from the handful of games in the 2024 Montverde Academy Invitational Tournament.

The visualization below graphs the most active defenders on the x-axis compared to overall winning impact on the y-axis, revealing how much of the defense component makes up each player’s overall two-way impact in these games.

Cooper Flagg (12.9), AJ Dybantsa (10.7) and Tyran Stokes (10.7) finished 1st and T-2nd respectively in Cerebro Sports C-RAM metric, rating off the charts as the most impactful players overall from the Montverde Academy Invitational Tournament.

Cooper Flagg jumps off the page, dominating his games on both ends in winning affairs while filling up the box score, averaging 4 blocks and 1.7 steals in the 3-game tourney. Stokes trailed only Flagg in defensive statistical impact.

Liam McNeeley bringing defensive impact with his sniper off ball shooting and scoring versatility gives him exciting ceiling of two-way impact at the highest level.


All of the MAIT’s Top-10 most impactful players by Cerebro’s C-RAM played for Montverde or Prolific, except for three:

4th Ryan Jones Jr., The Rock School
6th Tyler Johnson, Oak Ridge
9th Dante Allen, Riviera Prep

Asa Newell, Liam McNeeley, Tyler Johnson, Dwayne Airstode and Derik Queen stand out for their overall impact, with the next range of positive impact comparitively features Aiden Sherrell, Elijah Crawford, Mason Fuentes, Curtis Givens, Winters Grady, Cameron Simpson, Joseph Hartman, Shone Abaev, Cameron Simpson, Jordan Tillery, Rob Wright, Nojus Indrusaitis, Mikey Lewis, and Zoom Diallo.

Curtis Givens, Montverde’s sixth man, ranks 2nd overall in the tournament in defensive statistical impact, much higher than one might expect given the talent in the field. Flagg, Givens, Stokes, Sherrell, McNeeley, Gaskins were the most active defenders from the tournament.

The goal of the data visualization below is to show the best offensive producers of the tournament to help predict the best Future Scoring Creators, the most efficient and most consistent offensive options for creating good shots for themselves and others.

To do so, let’s compare players’ pure scoring prowess (PSP) and floor general skills (FGS) to find high feel good decision-makers who can score effectively and create consistently. Scoring (PSP) is on the vertical y-axis, and Playmaking (FGS) is on the horizontal x-axis. Each player is marked by a circle with 3pt efficiency shown by the size and color of the circles; the bigger and brighter, the better.

Which prospects can be relied on the most as offensive engines for team-first shot creation?

AJ Dybantsa stands out for his scoring load and efficiency with the ability to set up others. Derik Queen and Ryan Jones Jr rated off the charts in scoring in these three games too.

Cooper Flagg, Liam McNeeley, Tyran Stokes, Tyler Johnson, Shon Abaev, Dante Allen, Asa Newell, Elijah Crawford, and the Fuentes brothers rate well in both playmaking and scoring, some of the more reliable shot creators from the tournament.

Dwayne Aristode, Winters Grady, Cameron Simpson rated in the Top-15 as scorers, mostly doing their damage from deep, each rating Top-3 in 3pt efficiency respectively.

Rob Wright, Curtis Givens, Jordan Tillery rate similarly positive in scoring, showing a range of good to great playmaking skills.

In the Hoopshall Classic tournament, Cooper Flagg ranked 5th in overall C-RAM, though most teams only played 1 game to Flagg’s 3. (Cameron Boozer ranked 3rd with 2 games played)

The Top-6 most impactful Hoopshall Classic players by Cerebro’s C-RAM with 2+ games played and 10+ minutes per game, with notable prospects like Cameron Boozer, Jase Richardson, Darius Acuff from the The Sunshine Classic, the last tournament held at Montverde.

Flagg racked up 12 blocks and 6 steals to only 5 fouls throughout the Hoopshall Classic, rating good to great in scoring, shooting, passing, finishing, and defense by Cerebro.

Click the YouTube LINK above for a Video Scouting Report on the Top-5 players who shined brightest in the Prolific – Montverde Matchup: (Cooper Flagg, AJ Dybantsa, Tyran Stokes, Asa Newell, Liam McNeeley)

The Film

Cooper Flagg
6’9″ Forward/Wing
Montverde Academy

• Star-stopping shot-swishing superstar
• Versatile, lengthy, active big wing defender
• Elite motor, never gives up on a play, never runs out of gas, plays hard through the final whistle
• Phenomenal rebounder using height, length, anticipation, timing
• Great vision, looks for open shooters on drives
• Well-rounded threat to score on and off the ball
• Tough shotmaker from every spot on the floor, rim-attacking dunks, 3pt range
• Cerebral ball instincts, especially off ball cuts, putbacks, rebounds, help defense blocks
• Attacks closeouts against rotating defenses to create rim shots for himself, open kickouts to teammates, fouls drawn in traffic

Players with the wingspan, height, footwork, and athleticism to guard anyone on the floor and swat any shot in sight with the timing, ball instincts, and awareness to pull it off posses a rare combination of skills eluding to a potential rim-deterring defensive anchor.

While no player is perfect, Cooper Flagg does nearly everything well on the hardwood. With a motor that doesn’t turn off, Flagg is able to fill any role, guard any player, attack the rim, shoot from deep, beat you with the pass, operate either end of a pick-and-roll, and even get hot in a post-up or pull-up style from midrange, at the rim, and from deep.

When artificially intelligent robots eventually replace human beings as basketball players, those robots will model their game after Cooper Flagg’s archetype.

With similarities to Aaron Gordon, Shawn Marion, Andrei Kirlenko, and any do-it-all stat-stuffing tall forward who brings versatility to defense and scoring before him, Cooper Flagg is The Ultimate Swish Army Knife.

Orlando Magic star Paolo Banchero awards Cooper Flagg Gatorade Player of the Year (Photo Credit: WABI/Joe Greer)

Cooper filled the box score in a victory over Oak Ridge during the MOAT, posting a statline of 22 PTS (50 FG%) – 14 REB – 6 BLK – 2 STL – 3 AST/3 TO (1 foul)

Scooping a sweet pickpocket steal guarding point-of-attack, drawing a hard foul attacking the rim off the turnover, blocking a shot from behind before throwing down a monster putback one-handed slam, making a smartly timed deflection to force a turnover before a methodical fundamental footwork driving rim-finish, timing up a buzzer-beating putback showing anticipation and motor crashing the glass for rebounds, even drilling an impossible pindown pull-up turnaround jumper off the handoff for good measure, while protecting the rim racking up blocks every time you look up.

Fake handoff in-and-out dribble stepback pull-up three all in one motion. Block a shot, grab the board, push the pace, fake the kickout, eurostep through traffic, throw down the slam; death by a thousand cuts leaves opponents begging for mercy.

The Maine Event featured 2 Flagg Plants and 4 Blocks in the Hoophall Classic championship matchup…

…in the first half.

Elite modern defenders who aren’t quite traditional big men like Bam Adebayo, Jonathan Isaac, Jaren Jackson Jr., or even the all-time great Kevin Garnett himself show how Flagg’s ideal role can be maximized at the highest level, unleashing a do-it-all ball-hawking big on teams that haven’t maximized their floor spacing.

While only listed as 6’9″, The Boys Basketball Gatorade Florida Player of the Year brings nonstop energy and laser focus, quite literally every possession. Arguably the most impressive indicators of future success for Flagg’s upside is his motor. Cooper continues to contest shots, crash the boards, attack the paint, and protect the rim; all game long, no plays off.

Allowing Cooper Flagg to freeroam defensively is a recipe for disaster for opposing teams. When Flagg is matched up with a non-shooter, free to read and react as his team’s free safety, mayhem ensues; no shot is safe.

In one sequence against Prolific, Cooper fights through a screen at POA, and though too late for the shot contest, he sees the board bounce his way, leaps in to tip the board in traffic with one hand, and fights multiple opponents for the loose ball.

Then Coop brings the ball up the court looking up for a teammate to push to, gets the ball back and immediately attacks the closeout with a pumpfake low-swing dribble drive, creating open looks for others by drawing in extra eyes into the paint and no-look kicking out to the open man, creates a would-be hockey assist corner three for his team, rebounds the missed shot with another one hand tip to himself reaching over the opponent without fouling, and cleans up the play with a one-legged Dirk Fade for good measure.

Lockdown on-ball perimeter defense on top prospect AJ Dybantsa, with Flagg flipping hips getting tall/thin fighting over screens, poking at the ball stopping dribble drives, deflecting ball right out of his hands for the steal, and finding teammate Derik Queen for the fast break rim-roll reverse.

This sequence highlights Flagg’s anticipation, timing, and grab-and-go style, swatting Dybantsa’s drive with the help of McNeeley going straight up to contest in semi-transition, with Cooper scooping up the boarding and pushing the pace. Every player can improve something; this play ends with a lowlight, showing how with more game rep experience and ball control dribble drills could be beneficial for feeling out defenses with decision-making, as he challenges 3 defenders with all his teammates open behind him for trailer kickouts; Flagg gets blocked and called for a travel, losing possession.

High low back and forth between Flagg and Newell leads to a wild contested FLOATA for Flagg through contact, bending over and around the defense

Back-to-back backdoor baseline cutting slam dunks against DME’s 2-3 zone with the help of a back screen from a teammate in the paint. Flagg’s timing, hops, and cutting impact on display.

AJ Dybantsa
6’8″ Wing/Forward
Prolific Prep

• NBA GMs dream big wing star scorer with high two-way feel, winning impact, and nightly tough shot making highlights
• Elite All-Star Upside and Immediate Impact Two-Way Starter as Versatile Scoring Big Wing
• Soft touch finishing at the rim and midrange tough shots
• Deep range and shooting confidence on in-rhythm Pull-Up triples
• Potential primary scoring option at NBA level as consistent scorer on and off ball
• Good ball control, sometimes a loose dribble but burst and wingspan allow him to recover and sometimes use the looseness to create a movement advantage to throw off the defense
• Nice vision, good decision-maker, looks for teammates on kickouts when drawing defenders into paint
• Exciting player for fans as tough shot-making scorer at every level with a smooth shot release, bouncy breakaway dunks

AJ Dybantsa’s ceiling similarities ideally look something like a Paul George archetype, the modern generation’s favorite 6’8″ archetype like Tracy McGrady was for kids growing up in the early 2000s, in their incredible all-around ball skills and natural athletic two-way feel, the ability to create their own shot from any spot on the floor, keep dribble alive without losing it, and rise up with a nearly unblockable shot release for a splashy jumper from on or off the ball, with those ball instincts playing out on the other end when jumping passing lanes, blocking shots from behind, reading plays before they happen.

Brandon Miller may be the most similar type of exciting slim 6’8″ versatile big wing scoring prospect in the league today.

These high-potential wings could have a range of outcomes like Jeff Green, Harrison Barnes, Andrew Wiggins, RJ Barrett, to Tobias Harris as tall, lengthy, skilled wings who can put the rock through the net and make it look easy and natural doing it; players viewed as potential all-stars at some point in their development yet brought day one impact as starting-level forwards who can score semi-consistently in the 15-18-21 PPG range as reliable two-way starters in the right lineups dependent on the opportunity and roles.

Dybantsa dropped 22 PPG through 3 tournament games in Montverde shooting 25/37 FG and 6/12 3P. While his passing numbers were only an 11 AST / 11 TO ratio, AJ made good reads looking for shooters when his shot wasn’t available after breaking down the defense and drawing extra defenders into the paint.

Flashes elite shooting touch.

First the FLOATA drawing a big man on the switch, then picked up by a big in transition, calls his own number, drops the hesitation moves and half-spin fakeout footwork for driving contested shots, converting both runners to end the first quarter in Prolific vs. Montverde

Savvy ball and body control to break the full-court press with a give-and-go; drawing a switching big to half court, accelerating swiftly past him; spin, gather, decelerate to split a swiping help defender; stop on a dime for the touch FLOATA.

The first time these two teams met in the Hoopshall Classic, AJ Dybantsa led his team in scoring with 21 PTS – 5 REB – 4 AST

This is a pro move early in the game by AJ Dybantsa showing his advantage creation, body control, and soft finishing touch.

Draws big man on switch in PnR -> Hesi -> in-and-out dribble -> stop on a dime -> lofts up a FLOATA -> Swish

In this pick-and-roll, Dybantsa flashed his feel for the game when he’s trapped by the wide wingspans of Flagg and Queen before hitting the roller with a b-e-a-utiful touch lob pass over the top of the blitzing defenders for a rim-rolling rim-rocking slam!

Crossover hesi drive through contact AND1 against Cooper Flagg?

AJD gains momentum after Zoom breaks down the defense attacking the paint with a drive and kick, opening a gap for AJ to attack the closeout, crossover reset to force Flagg to open his hips and start backpedaling, gifting Dybantsa a half-step advantage, all the room he needs to attack the rack, stop on a time, create contact and still finish the shot falling to the floor.

The release on this shot is so high even NBA defenders would have trouble blocking it.

AJ Dybanza being able to rise up for contested middy pull-ups will make him hard to guard as a pro; tall tough shot-makers who can get to their spot and consistently hit their shot over contesting hands are hard to guard at every level.

Dybantsa dropped 21 PTS in the the Hoophall Classic Title Game, rising to the occasion as the game went on: drilling two threes, dishing out a 3pt assist kickout, and drving coast-to-coast for the one-man grab-and-go fast break FLOATA

Earlier in the tournament, AJ Dybantsa dropped 18 PTS – 9 REB -0 1 STL on 8/11 FG and 2/3 3P for Napa California’s Prolific Prep in an overtime victory against Dante Allen out of Miami, FL’s Riviera Prep.

Dybantsa flashed the full custom edition matte yellow lambo grand theft auto potential star package against Riviera Prep, showing off start-stop body control, decelerating drives, hesi handles, soft touch, wide vision, strong north-south athleticism, and deep range shooting.

AJ Dybantsa was a one-man human highlight reel: a mean drive-by dunk, a powerful tip slam, a nasty drop-off bounce pass, a corner C&S three off the in-and-out dribble kickout from Zoom Diallo, a clean decision driving through the paint for the corner kick, a nicely timed board off a miss, multiple cross-court passes into shooter pockets, sound closeouts and contests.

Prolific Prep’s Dybantsa and Stokes kept their foot on the gas in the semi finals against Brewster.

AJ is a real hooper, a monster on the hardwood, converting 10/11 FG and 2/3 3P on his way to 30 PTS – 1 STL – 1 BLK and 5 AST / 2 TO in the W. Flashes scoring versatility, next-level athleticism, shooting touch and grab-and-go body control.

Hitting contested middy pull-ups, finishing the post-up face-up stutter-rip reset driving spinning finger roll, driving and gliding right by any defender in isolation and handoff sets into decelerating finger-rolls, all while relocating with off-ball movement for plays like the zipper screen catch-and-shoot triple and timing up the backdoor cut for an easy one at the rim.

Consistently shows two-way feel, timing, effective use of length advantage and defensive awareness for deflections, steals, stops, with 4PT swings off turnovers ofrten created.

In this game against Brewster, AJD scoops up the loose ball recovery and throws down a tip slam off the turnover; then he sees a pass coming, jumps the passing lane for an anticipatory steal and breakaway highlight slam, then patiently protects the rim blocking a reverse, then flips hips at point of attack defense and fights through a screen to force the guard into a travel, then grabs and goes off a rebound with a flashy highlight behind-the-back dribble and alley-oop lob to Tyran Strokes.

Tyran Stokes
6’8″ Forward
Prolific Prep

• Natural Athlete who flies around the court, a north-south force who gets up vertically
• Impressive body control on change of pace; can accelerate, decelerate, explode at right times to create advantages and shots for himself and others
• Good timing anticipation and ball instincts jumping passing lanes
• Foul-drawing and bump-and-finish through contact for soft touch finishing and eurostep footwork on drives
• Deep range shooting capability

Betting on 6’6″+ players with noticeable athletic advantages amongst their peers, who can already utilize deceleration body control with ball instincts, contact-drawing ability, and clean shooting touch are all good bets for future development.

Against Riviera: 14 PTS – 15 REB – 5/2 AST/TO – 4 STL – 5 BLK; thats 15 boards and 9 stocks for THE POINT GUARD!

Tyran Stokes dropped 22 PTS & 5 REB on 64% FG% in the contest against Brewster, with an impressive sequence swatting a shot strongly, grabbing the loose ball, and running the floor for a coast-to-coast fast break flush, showing off the touch and timing tossing up alley lobs and throwing down oop slams.

Here against Montverde, Stokes draws a foul and a goaltend after the MEAN right to left hesi crossover, driving through contact, before following that up with another driving bucket at the rim, driving and jumping around the floor in a herky-jerky style similar to Markelle Fultz in terms of his start-stop body control, crossover handle, and lift at his size.

Sneaky athleticism shown here as Prolific runs double drag, Tyran Stokes slips the screen and pops out into the corner, where the ball finds him as he shows off the first step burst to beat his man into the paint, decelerating and exploding for the poster slam, hanging in the air while gliding through two defenders.

Stokes drills C&S threes off the strong flare screen and kickouts from AJD, one in the clutch to take the lead with under two minutes to go in the MAIT championship.

Drawing lumbering bigs into switches creates advantages for this change of pace wing.

Earlier in the Prolific-Montverde game, Tyran Stokes draws a foul by hesi-driving into big man D.Queen after first being trapped and drawing the switch.

Later in the game, Stokes draws DQ on a switch again, this time using his speed, ball and body control to crossover and accelerate into a spin move, slowing down with decelerating footowork for a finesse finger roll finish at the rim, shown below:

Tyran makes a good read one play breaking up PnR lob for a steal, but then tosses up the bad pass turnover on a fast break.

After a good team defense possession with AJD cutting off baseline drives and stunting at shooters, finished off by Aiden Sherrell protecting the rim with the help-side block, Tyran Stokes explodes like a firework show through a cloud of defenders, taking off for the breakaway highlight jam, showing off his first step burst, decelerating body control, and downhill force.

Tyran Stokes starts with no momentum here; yet he still makes a play from behind, as Stokes accelerates, times up, and catches Cooper Flagg for a chasedown (double-block) after Asa Newell got a block of his own the possession prior.

Asa Newell
6’10” Forward
Montverde Academy

• NBA size, height, length, strength, effort, footwork, two-way feel
• Outstanding motor, energetic rotating relocating rim-running rim-protector play-finisher
• Brings defensive tenacity, swarming opponents with active hands, lengthy feel, and quick feet from wing to wing
• Great fundamental postup footwork, dropsteps sealing defender behind with counters
• Can hit open catch-and-shoot three, make extra swing pass
• All-around winning player with high floor as athletic north-south plus-defender rotation player with post-up dribble pass shoot skills and a high ceiling as a two-way starter if he scores effectively at the NBA level.

Asa Newell plays with so much energy its like he’s dropping a spirit bomb on the court.

He’s everywhere defensively, contesting everyone, and always beats everyone down the floor for rim-runs in transition.

Newell outworks his opponents by moving with purpose off the ball; rotating, contesting, blocking shots, rim-running, making extra passes, cutting to the rim.

Should be a future pro rotation player for his defense and play-finishing alone, attacking both ends like a Brandon Clarke.

Rated 3rd in At the Rim efficiency via Cerebro Sports’s ATR metric.

The Asa Newell Sequence

Switches onto Dybantsa in P&R, deters multiple driving lanes, contests stepback pull-up three, runs floor to beat the other team to the paint to secure leverage positioning, drop step slam from the dunker spot to force a timeout.

Against Oak Ridge, Asa Newell made it a mission to gain position for the patented postup drop step spin baby hook early and often, finishing with 12 PTS (5/7 FG) – 8 REB – 1 STL – 2 AST/2 TO and a double-block with Cooper Flagg, a common occurrence for the pair of pterodactyls holding down the frontcourt.

In Montverde’s *87 POINT* win over Imani Christian (127-40), Newell made an immediate impact on both ends to the tune of 15 PTS (7/11 FG) – 8 REB – 3 AST – 1 BLK. Asa beat his man down the floor to park in the paint and secure post-up drop-step positioning near the rim, beats opponents to the ball by crashing the boards for misses, going back up strong with his go-to baby hook fling.

Montverde Teammates Rob Wright and Curtis Givens showed vision and scoring ability with heads up plays, making good reads, and hitting relocating C&S threes. Cooper Flagg swished in some C&S threes, adding a look off dime and back-to-back blocks, because that’s what he does. McNeeley led Montverde in scoring with 18 PTS and 3 3PM and a nice dunk. Imani Christian’s backcourt of RJ Sledge and Tristen Brown showed off clean finishing at the rim with crafty finesse and footwork.

Master of the postup backdown block dropstep baby hook shot down; a go-to move that works, with counters to boot.

Look at this ball awareness by Newell, timing up an offensive rebound during a free throw with a defensive end swim move to pull the chair out from behind the man boxing him out, deflecting the board to himself, and immediately turning and looking for the other rebounder, Liam McNeeley, on a relocation corner three that resembles one of the all-time moments in hoop history, Chris Bosh kicking out to Ray Allen to keep the Heatles alive against the Spurs in the 2013 NBA Finals.

Liam McNeeley
6’8″ Guard
Montverde Academy

• Legitimate floor spacer, knockdown 3pt shooter, especially C&S and movement threes running off screens, forever relocating for the catch-and-shoot dagger from deep
• Versatile scorer with diverse shot profile on and off the ball
• Soft shooting touch at the rim and from beyond the arc
• Attacks closeout with force, looking to score, slam, finish strong
• Pesky defender who’s feel for the game helps break on slow handles and passing lanes for steals (made slightly easier knowing Flagg Newell and Queen are behind you to clean things up)

Good scorer, good decision-maker, good passer, good finisher at the rim, great anticipation defender, great 3pt shooter; that’s one prettyyy, pretty, pretty good rotation player at any level, if not a high-volume scorer 3pt sniper at the highest one.

Able to create good looks for himself as an on-ball scorer, or with the help of a strong handoff as an off-ball threat running around screens, stretching the floor where defenses need to know where he is at all times, Liam McNeeley shares scoring versatility and off-ball shooting gravity of snipers like Malik Monk or Tyler Herro.

Can’t be left open, should be trapped/iced with the ball in his hands to deny the shot and force a dribble or pass-to contain shooting threat. McNeeley will counter with a quick decision to drive hard at rim for the dunk or clean finger roll finish.

McNeeley balled out in the Hoophall Classic Title Game, leading all scorers with 22 PTS on 4 3PM; Liam impressed with his shot versatility, a diverse diet of dunks and threes.

With refined footwork, timing, awareness, McNeeley created his own scoring opportunities primarily by staying in motion off the ball, running through Elevator Screens for a turnaround C&S 3pt jumper, stopping on a dime after jumping a passing lane for a steal to decelerate into the pull-up jumper, even countering the three by attacking closeouts with finishing-at-the-rim packages and hammering home slams at the rim, while making the extra swing pass when needed, seen in the video below:

Often leads team in scoring next to potential pros in Cooper Flagg, Derik Queen, Asa Newell, Rob Wright, Curtis Givens.

As Hoophall MVP, Liam McNeeley won one plaque, one picture with Ice Cube, and one OFFICIAL Hoophall MVP bathrobe.

(Photo Credit: Lonnie Webb)

Liam McNeeley’s soft shooting touch isn’t just found from beyond the arc, here using the rip-through re-screen off the handoff give-and-go to evade AJ Dybantsa’s length on the perimeter, force a switch on the drive, and still swish in the FLOATA through bump and finish contact, even switching hands from left dribble to righty push shot in the air. Skills galore

After their teammate is blocked, Flagg wastes no time grabbing the loose ball and no-look kicking out to Liam McNeeley for a C&S three, one of his favorite targets on drive-and-kicks, clearly trusting the knockdown shooter at every opportunity.

Elijah Crawford
6’2″ Point Guard
Brewster Academy

• Natural point guard mentality looking to push pace at every opportunity and find teammates for open looks
• Two-way feel, frenetic energy, active hands forcing deflections
• Anticipation jumping passing lanes, timing up rebounds
• Impressive start-stop body control on decelerating drives
• Strong, big, explosive, especially for his height and position
• Tight handle, great vision, clean passing chops
• Tough pull-up shotmaker at midrange and 3pt level
• Developing skills like finishing at the rim, decision-making to slow down the game, and consistency would raise ceiling

In the Semifinal against Prolific, Elijah Crawford came to play, leaving it all on the floor with 30 PTS – 5 REB – 4 AST / 2 TO shooting 11/17 FG and 6/6 FT.

Soft touch, scoring versatility, finishing packages like the FLOATA, pull-up jumpers from the contested middy running Spain P&R to the stepback triple out of double-drag pick-and-roll, an off ball elbow screen cutting alley-layup, a transition outlet up-and-under finish, multiple nicely timed backdoor cuts to the rim, always looking for the best shot for his team by drawing extra defenders and creating looks for others, hitting teammmates in shooting pockets; highlights here.

Elijah’s all-around point guard play was made evident even when teammates’ shots didn’t fall, because open 3pt looks were still created. Once after he ran back on defense for a deflection, he swoops in for the rebound in traffic, brings the ball up, moves the ball around, gets the ball back, and makes a spinning pick-and-pop pass to the shooter; another tim, he operates double-drag after double-drag until he finds the driving lane he wants to manipulate the defense with to create an open look for the shooter.

In the MAIT’s 3rd place game between Brewster and Oak Ridge, Elijah Crawford put up 7 PTS – 6 REB – 5 AST / 2 TO – 2 STL in 23 MIN, making winning plays through out.

The Stanford commit’s sweetest sequence may have been the deflection for a steal pace-pushing dropoff pass for a trailer in transition C&S three. Elijah stays bringing up the ball like he’s mad at the basket, on a grab-and-go wheel with a never-ending motor the whole game. Hits Nojus Indursaitis for the highlight fast break slam, drills a pull-up three after trapping his man under the screen, hits the grab-and-go turbo button off the board for a quick corner-kick 3PT assist to Dwayne Aristode, and drills a behind-the-back fadeaway middy pull-up so fast you’d miss it if you looked down for a second.

Jordan Tillery
6’6″ Guard
Oak Ridge

• Tough shot maker who can score at all three levels
• Active hands and great timing for digs, deflections, passing lane steals, blocks on the way down
• Soft touch on threes, floaters, alley oop lobs
• Natural point guard at 6’6″, tall for position
• Great body control for deceleration finishes at the rim, grab and go acceleration speed, first step burst to the rim
• Tight handle ball control on dribbles
• Great vision, playmaking feel, team-first passing chops

Jordan Tillery out of Oak Ridge can fly.

Tillery impressed in all-around winning two-way impact against Montverde with anticipation and active hands creating multiple deflections for steals; soft touch, sound timing, and good body control on the spinning FLOATA, tight handles for a mean ISO finger roll reverse, range on the three-pointer, vision on the alley-oop lob pass and mad hops on throw down mean tip slam.

In the first quarter, Tillery’s active hands deflects the live dribble of Liam McNeeley in transition, then forces another turnover soon after for a second steal, following those up with a nice display of body control and shooting touch on the spinning FLOATA.

Over the course of the game Jordan flashed fiery handles and finishing at the rim on the finger roll reverse, knocked down a catch and shoot jump shot from downtown, and lobbed up an alley-oop to Oak Ridge teammate Tyler Johnson.

Tillery left it all on the floor in the fourth against Montverde. The Southern Miss commit stripped Rob Wright’s shot on the way down after leaping to contest, throws down a powerful putback one-handed tip slam off his own miss, swipes the ball away for a deflection steal, completes the give-and-go fast break flush slam dunk highlight.

What a move by the Georgia Southern Commit.

Against Brewster, Tillery showed off effective flashy handles, vision, body control, rebounding timing in traffic, and finishing at the rim with the decelerating finger roll and a good two-handed skip pass across the court. While his shot might not have been falling, he found other ways to contribute. Oak Ridge teammates Tyler Johnson (6/8 FG 7/8 FT) and Cameron Simpson (6 3PM) dropped in 20 points a a piece.

Jordan Tillery gains a momentum advantage into the DHO from the wing, sizes up the defense, drops a quick killer crossover, attacks the gap with burst, decelerates into the air hunting contact for the bump and finish against the big in the air with a tough soft touch up-and-under winding finger roll.

Against The Rock School, Tillery picked up the grab-and-go pace and hit tough shots galore, despite a few turnovers trying to make a play:

19 PTS (8/11 FG) – 5 REB – 1 BLK – 1 AST / 4 TO

Middies with the contested turnaround Dirk fade
Clean finishing at the rim
Timing up the lob pass
Sound body control decelerating on coast to coast drives
Impressive ball skills for the 6’6″ playmaking speedster

Tillery leaving it all on the floor to propel his team to a win: opens the second half with a pull-up three, later with a rebound in traffic and huge block in the clutch:

Tyler Johnson
6’5″ Wing
Oak Ridge

• Athletic force uses advantages effectively over peers, energetic rebounder
• Strong play-finisher at the rim, can hit open three and attack closeout with burst
• Risky reacher on defense, gets steals but more fouls than forced turnovers
• 16 PTS, 10 REB, 7 AST in a win over The Rock
• 19 PTS, 7 REB, 3 AST, 2 STL vs Montverde Academy
• 20 PTS (6/8 FG), 9 REB, 5 AST in a win over Brewster Academy
• 5th in overall impact via Cerebro C-RAM
• 33% 0.7 3PM over 3 games
• 1.3 STL+0 BLK for every 2 Fouls

In the Montverde matchup, future Virginia Tech Hokie 6’5″ Forward Tyler Johnson flashed creative handles, tight ball control, transition tenacity, cerebral team defense, active hands for a passing lane deflection steal before a give-and-go layup, tough shotmaker on pull-up and catch-and-shoot threes, driving up-and-under finish at the rim through defenders.

The future UCF sharpshooter 6’6″ wing Cameron Simpson showed off his funky jump shot and feathery shooting touch throughout the tournament with 3 catch-and-shoot treys against Montverde and 2 pull-up threes against Brewster.

6’0″ point guard Jalen Reece pitched in against Montverde with impressive pull-up shooting, the stepback gather from three, the pull-up middy, spinning elbow fadeaway, with a nice wraparound pass for a corner catch-and-shoot three. When facing Brewster in the 3rd place, Reece showed he had the full-sprint-stop-on-a-dime elbow pull-up jumper down looking like Russell Westbrook, even hitting behind the back dribble fadeaways to create space for himself to go to work.

Shon Abaev
6’7″ Forward
Calvary Christian

• Tough shot-maker at all three levels
• Developable ball-skills with NBA height and length
• Tight handle, mastery of dribble moves
• Soft touch shooting as clean scorer with silky smooth jump shot as a pull-up threat

Shon Abaev shows off his full arsenal of ball-skills, body control, ball control, and scoring touch: the fake-drive stepback three; the fading in-and-out dribble stepback corner three over contests; the change-of-pace hesi fading FLOATA, splitting the trap defenders into a eurostep FLOATA through 3 total defenders; the leaning pull-up middy fadeaway; splashing in talls hot release middy fadeaways like a young Michael Beasley making every shot feel unblockable by falling away while taking it.

Shon Abaev may be getting buckets professionally for years to come. His shot release is hard to contest, and when he shows the ability to get to any spot on the floor, the shot confidence to rise up and fire, and the silky smooth shooting arc to drop in nothing but net shots from anywhere, there’s little defenses can do but send multiple defenders, and pray.

Guard Cayden Daughty, Shon’s teammate at Calvary Christian, also impressed with his natural feel in this game, creating a hockey-assist corner-kick three-pointer off a nice hang dribble revealing his handle, vision, and passing chops, while keeping active hands ready for a deflection and steal.

vs. Riviera Prep
Shon: 16 PTS on 7/13 FG – 5 REB – 2 STL
Cayden: 17 PTS on 7/7 FT – 3 STL – 3 AST / 1 TO

vs. Brewster
Shon: 16 PTS on 17 FGA – 6 REB – 7 AST / 1 TO – 2 STL – 2 BLK
Cayden: 20 PTS on 12 FGA

Rob Wright III
6’1″ Point Guard
Montverde Academy

• Two-way team-first floor-stretching playmaker who plays hard and smart for his size
• Traditional point guard with modern scoring creator skills, savvy connector, smooth 3pt jumper, tight ball control handles
• Hunts contact on drives for fouls, nice aggressiveness with the ball, tough shot-making on runners over tall defenders
• Gets up under players on defense, forcing offensive fouls, making opposition uncomfortable.
• Winning player, makes talented teammates better with natural point guard instincts that elevate an offense, makes the right play every play, looks for best shot for the team, hits open shots, high floor as floor-managing 3pt-shooting connector

Showing nice touch against Oak Ridge with the underhand bounce pass, the running FLOATA, and the catch-and-shoot corner three.

Smart movements, relocating here to the corner, up to the wing, attacking closeout with 0.5 second decision making, spin move footwork and clean finger roll finish to create easy layup for himself off BLOB set:

Good 3pt shooter on and off the ball

FLOATA King Rob Wright III has mastered one of the toughest shots in the game, a necessary one for a point guard attacking the rim with drop defenders who tend to be much taller and in the way.

Clutch scoring late for Montverde, runs Horns set with picks on both side of the ball, reads defense and finds good shot for himself to tie the game with just over a minute to play in the MAIT Championship game.

Clean contested dribble drive up-and-under reverse for Rob Wright without much room to operate:

Rob Wright III is as cool in the clutch as they come.

Montverde clears the entire side of the floor with a misdirection stagger screen for their 3pt threat McNeeley to distract the defense as Wright and Queen run a simple angle high PnR

Rob feels his first step advantage with the big man too high up, speeds past the dropping big for a finger roll layup.

Rob draws a charge on Dybantsa the next play before Flagg beats a press for a breakaway slam to seal the championship!
(Flagg blocks another shot and draws a foul with 5 seconds left for good measure before the buzzer)

Derik Queen
6’10” Center/Forward
Montverde Academy

• Overpowering NBA Size, Strength
• Mobile Rim-Protecting Rim-Rolling Lob Threat Play-Finisher
• Good footwork, handle, finishing touch, vision, timing
• Active Hands, solid defensive instincts to Deflect ball without fouling
• Questionable decison-maker with developable ball-skills, can be too forceful with a live dribble

vs Oak Ridge: 23 PTS on 11/15 FG with 11 REB – 2 BLK – 1 STL – 2 TO

Rim-deterrent against Oak Ridge contesting shots and forcing bad ones, despite a handful of plays of trying to do too much, Derik Queen throws down a couple of strong man putback jams. Queen flashed sound footwork and shooting touch near the rim on the spinning hook shot through traffic and solid timing on a late-possession block to prevent a 2-on-1.

Big rim-runners like Derik Queen, Aiden Sherell, Ryan Jones Jr. rated highly in At The Rim efficiency via Cerebro, as do wings who attack the rim Asa Newell, Cooper Flagg, AJ Dybantsa, Tyler Johnson, Tyran Stokes, Liam McNeeley; all in the Top-10:

One example of Active Hands in drop defense against PnR helps Derik Queen poke dribble away from the driver, Zoom Diallo, forcing a turnover.

Here’s an up-and-down sequence summing up the Derik Queen experience:

Opens the 2nd quarter with one big coast-to-coast Oreo cookies DQ blizzard to-go, where at first Queen shows off great timing and active hands by breaking up a bounce pass, once again forcing a turnover in PnR drop coverage, this time stunting at the ball-handler and falling back to guard the roller.

Queen’s ability to dribble the ball up the court is a positive, but when he forces the dribble through traffic, he makes the game more difficult for himself. Instead of setting up the offense, Queen spins into a tough fadeaway midrange jumper, and while creating this shot is no easy task, it’s certainly a shot the defense is okay with Montverde taking anytime.

Queen immediately sees his shot is off, timing up an offensive rebound by crashing the glass, resetting his footwork for the second jump, and putting back the layup in traffic.

Derik Queen’s size, strength, and instincts give him incredible advantages that should translate to the NBA level; focusing on perfecting what he does well instead of improving weaknesses outside of the role he needs to fill could help carve out a long NBA career, a two-way role in play-finishing and paint-protection. Developing ball skills to round out his game could make him more well-rounded, but learning and understand how and when to utilize these skills defines one’s feel for the game.

In a matchup against DME’s 7’2″ Center Thiam, Queen held his own in a size mismatch, flashing all of the ball skills and nice vision with a look-ahead pass, bringing the ball up, finding Cooper Flagg for an alley-oop, drilling a pull-up middy, and blocking a shot at the rim with good ball instincts, anticipation, timing.

Queen finds an open spot against the 2-3 zone, parks, catches, turnaround baby hook bucket:

Queen flashes baby hook shot prowess, and has good patience, timing, and footwork in the post, but can find himself in situations where a loose handle moving in traffic can lead to a turnover, tough shot in traffic, or offensive foul; one or two plays of trying to do too much outside of his current skill-set. Other times, one can see good touch on plays like a high-low post-entry pass out of double drag, but just as often negative possessions seem to occur from unforced errors.

A shot-creating point guard ala Chris Paul to Deandre Jordan back on the Lob City Clippers or Luka Doncic to Derrick Lively today could unlock and maximize Queen’s full skill-set as a rim-protecting rim-running play-finisher with soft hands, creating a positive feedback loop where the big man is rewarded on offense for his effort and tenacity on defense.

Curtis Givens
6’3″ Guard
Montverde Academy

• Smooth 3pt jump shot streaky scoring on and off the ball
• Clean finishing skills at the rim, middy pull-up game
• Runs pick-and roll and pushes pace quickly looking to score first and create second
• Tight ball control, good handle, sound body control, effective decelerating drives
• Nice timing, anticipation, ball instincts forcing turnovers on blocks and loose ball recoveries

Montverde’s Curtis Givens is a walking bucket with a reliable 3pt shot; the 2023 Hoopshall Classic MVP (13 PTS 6/8 FG 2 STL) shows good feel, handles, touch, speed control decelerating after burst to the rim, and good ball instincts timing up steals hopping passing lanes. In this year’s Hoopshall Classic Title Game, Curtis added a clutch shot in the final minute.

Against Oak Ridge, Curtis dropped in an efficient 10 PTS (4/7 FG) – 1 STL – 2 AST/1 TO with a catch-and-shoot three, a soft touch finish finger roll running pick-and-roll, a tough same-side reverse on the drive, good body control throughout with the start-stop layup, active hands and nice timing to jump a passing lane for the steal.

A tough shot-maker on threes and near the rim, with good ball instincts and ball skills, Curtis Givens may remind fans of Tre Mann or Cole Anthony with his shot diet, shot release, silky smooth P&R north-south middy-to-deep pull-up score-first approach.

Off the handoff from Newell, Givens takes the half-step advantage to drive through the tiniest of creases in the defense, making a driving lane out of thin air for the clean contested reverse at the rim.

Newell crashes the glass for a second chance board, kicks to Curtis Givens, who pumps the three, fakes the pass, and attacks the closeout, beating his man and creating contact with the big for a bump and tough soft touch spinning reverse.

Nojas Indrusaitis
6’5″ Guard
Brewster Academy

• Great off-ball mover cutting, rim-running, relocating around the arc
• Brings 3&D impact as a guard
• Sound fundamental footwork, dribble moves, clean driver through traffic
• Good vision and feel
• Hustles for loose balls
• Anticipation, timing, awareness on team defense

11 PTS – 2/3 3P – 6 REB – 3 AST / 2 TO in 20 MIN vs Calvary Christian

Nojas makes a pro move eurostep finger-roll through traffic and diving on the floor for a loose ball steal, nice outlet pass lookahead vision to find Elijah Crawford for a smooth up and under, jumping a passing lane for a steal and breakaway slam

Smooth-looking jumper on the pull-ups with 18 PTS – 5 REB – 3 AST against Montverde in the Hoopshall Classic tournament.

Dwayne Aristode
6’7″ Guard
Brewster Academy

• Knockdown 3pt shooter can score on and off the ball
• North-South athleticism with defensive timing, first step burst, and natural hops
• Scoring versatility with up-and-under reverses at the rim, deep range 3PT shooting, and fadeaway middy pull-up
• Good handle using behind the back dribble and first step to create advantage on drive

21 PTS 4/11 3P 4 REB 3 AST in 26 MIN vs. Calvary Christian

Zoom Diallo
6’4″ Guard
Prolific Prep

• Explosive north-south guard
• Fast, strong, quick first step burst, notable athleticism
• Good footwork, deceleration body control
• Strong finisher through contact, switches hands on drives like a running back
• Shooting touch at and around the rim
• Smart player with good timing on cuts
• Nice vision and decision-makingas a passer

Diallo zooms by his opponents with ease, flying past defenders with elite first step burst, accelerating and decelerating with impressive body control, moving off the ball for swift cuts and north-south attacks.

Zoom doesn’t just fly by you; he drives through you.

Don’t underestimate the strength of a man named after a burst of speed, who shows sound footwork and impressive proprioception, with his ability to envision and execute his own graceful athelticism in movements through space.

Zoom Diallo accelerates in the sidelines-out-of-bounds play off a screen, staying in motion which maintaints an advantage in momentum for a strong drive into the up-and-under finger roll finish.

Winters Grady
6’8″ Wing/Forward
Prolific Prep

• Catch-and-shoot 3pt off-ball threat
• Knockdown off-ball shooter running off screens, movement shooter
• Solid feel to attack closeout with pumpfake and pass to find open cutters

Against Riviera, Winters splashed in 23 PTS on 6/8 3P in 25 MIN

Winters Grady shot 4/7 from downtown in the Hoophall Classic, running off stagger screens and relocating for C&S triples:

Mikey Lewis
6’3″ Guard
Prolific Prep

• High feel, smart decision-making point guard, knows where to be and where to find his teammates
• Excellent anticipatory timing feel and footwork for relocation threes
• Deep range off-ball shooting gravity
• Incredible vision dishing out catchable passes
• Soft shooting touch, tough shot making, finesse finishing at every level
• Midrange game with floaters and pull-ups
• Great all-around offensive game; size may present challenges defensively

In the Hoophall Classic championship matchup between Prolific and Montverde, the St. Mary’s commit tossed in a tear drop FLOATA, zipped passes ahead in transition and to cutters, and knocked down the pullup middy and catch-and-shoot triple.

Incredible AND1 FLOATA here as Mikey Lewis attacks Asa Newell’s closeout with a through-the-legs hesitation dribble, change of pace acceleration intothe bump and finish one-legged runner while falling away from the rim, just an impossible shot that #0 makes look easy.

Beats two trapping/ICE defenders in PNR swarming the ball with a lofty touch pass to the roller, Aiden Sherrell finishes the play strong at rim after a strong screen. Ball-handler Mikey Lewis sees the trap coming, backs up with one step to keep his dribble alive and buy time for the roller to beat the tag from the wing and be left open at the rim, then drops a dime.

Shows off relocation timing and displays footwork fundamentals for C&S threes, running around screens, staying aware of his location on the court and where the ball is at all times.

Aiden Sherrell
6’11” Center
Prolific Prep

• Good timing, anticipation, and ball instincts protecting the paint as a rim-deterrent without fouling
• Length, height, footwork effective for switching and drop defense
• Team-first mindset looking for best shot rather than forcing up bad one, finds shooter (#0 Mikey Lewis) for relocation handoff triple after rebounding own miss

Against Riviera: 12 PTS – 8 REB – 3 BLK – 1 STL 4/8 FG – 2/2 AST/TO

Sticks with his man in drop defense tagging the roller, help defense protecting the rim blocking Asa Newell’s second chance post-up shot and Rob Wright’s driving runner in PnR:

Moustapha Thiam
7’2″ Center
DME Academy

• NBA Size, Height, Strength, Length
• Sound post-up footwork fundamentals, hook shot soft touch
• Good two-way feel and team-first decision-maker
• Anticipation, timing, ball instincts as rim-protector

Montverde hosted DME Academy the Saturday night prior to the MAIT, where Moustapha Thiam, DME’s 7’2″ center who ranks 20th in his class and has committed to play at UCF, impressed with his anticipation rim protection skills, sound post-up footwork fundamentals, soft touch finesse finishing on hook shots on the block, and good feel making team-first reads.

Thiam combining his size, skill, and instincts could lead to a long professional career in basketball. On this play, he uses his size, anticipation, vision to make a simple yet clean high-low entry pass that not all big men have the touch to make.

Ryan Jones Jr.
6’8″ Center/Forward
The Rock School

• Off-Ball play-finisher, especially on cuts and as C&S 3pt shooter
• Team Leader, Volume scorer on good shooting efficiency
• Active deflector, yet fouls just as often

15 PTS 8 REB 3 STL 6/12 FG vs Oak Ridge

Rating 4th overall in impact in the tournament by Cerebro’s C-RAM, Jones scored off the charts with per game averages of 21 PTS (63% FG% ) on 2.3 3PM (50% 3P%) and 5 REB in 3 games, racking up 2 blk+stl for every 2 fouls. Ryan scored 27 PTS in a W over Imani Christian, showing his play-finishing abilities as a catch-and-shoot 3pt threat and cutting off ball to the rim.

Dante Allen
6’4″ Guard
Riviera Prep

• Volume scorer, tough shot maker
• Good 3pt shooter, sound defender, 3&D impact
• Soft touch on shots near the rim

Dante Allen impressed with two-way impact, hitting 37% on 3.7 3PM over his 3 games in the tourney.

Against Prolific: 23 PTS on 22 FGA with 5 REB – 4 STL – 5 AST / 3 TO

Against Calvary Christian: 17 PTS on 15 FGA and 4 3PM – 3 AST – 4 REB

Despite some smooth soft touch deep high-arcing FLOATAs for Riviera guards Allen and Myles Fuentes (21 PTS), the vision of Fuentes’ brother Mason (9 AST/5 TO), and sound rim-protection instincts from their center Gustavo Guimaraes Alves (4 BLK), Dybantsa’s Prolific Prep team pulled away late.

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Video & Stat sources: NBA.com(video), Cerebro Sports(data), Montverde Academy(film), Maxpreps(heights)

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Besides being a lefty who looks like the upper half of a centaur with a funky love of hook shots, his proficiency as a rebounder is nearly unparalleled among NBA guards. Podz rates as a 99th-percentile defensive rebounder amongst guards, and 97th-percentile on the offensive glass.

Even with the rise of huge guards (and Podz is no slouch at 6’5″), his rebounding stands out. Only two guards boast higher offensive and defensive rebounding shares than Brandin: Ben Simmons (6’10”) and Russell Westbrook (all-time rebounding guard). I’d say that’s pretty good company.

Rebounding at this kind of level doesn’t just happen. It takes effort, timing, and technique to reach the level Podziemski has already achieved as a rookie. How does he do it?

Using Boxouts

Like Westbrook, Podz excels at using boxouts by his teammates to secure boards. He checks his man well and has an innate understanding of angles, knowing how to best position himself behind the boxout:

Podz isn’t just reliant on boxouts from others to generate rebounding success. He’ll happily do the dirty work himself:

In fact, among all the guards who have played as many minutes as Podz, only two boast a higher rate of boxouts per 48 minutes: Jaylen Brown and Jalen Williams. Not bad at all!

Boxouts are decreasing in frequency and importance as the game spreads out further. The real question for most rebounders is how you handle your defensive rebounding zones.

In Zone vs Out of Zone

An important part of rebounding is making quick checks. Players have to move into the proper position when the shot goes up. Using that time to check for potential offensive rebounding threats helps make a great rebounder, and Podz excels at this.

Those quick checks give him a better idea of what kind of resistance is coming in addition to whether or not a boxout is needed. It makes him a fantastic in-zone rebounder (i.e. rebounds that come to his natural defensive position).

Controlling the rebounds that come your way is great, but it’s not as impressive as out-of-zone boards. Recognizing chances to crash into other zones and help collect rebounds impacts team rebounding hugely.

A huge part of recognizing out-of-zone chances is noticing when your teammates are at a potential disadvantage. Podz can check the scene, recognize opportunities to tip the scales and help to secure that defensive stop.

Podz doesn’t just excel at securing defensive boards: he sparks the transition game once secured.

Transition Triggering

Podz isn’t exactly a big transition threat. He has mediocre transition frequency (56th percentile) and even worse efficiency as a scorer (28th percentile). But he still finds ways to contribute, especially as an outlet passer, which all comes from his defensive rebounding.

He reads the floor quickly and has good loft/accuracy on his passes. You probably noticed the middle clip was a deflection, but given the time and score, it was a good risk to take.

If you can’t grab the board and burn down the floor like prime Westbrook, find other ways to help out the team transition game. This is a welcome addition for a Warriors team that has struggled to generate transition opportunities all year.

And it’s not all on the defensive end where Podz impacts the boards.

Offensive Rebounding

As previously mentioned, Brandin posts elite offensive rebounding numbers. His combination of technique and effort stands even taller when getting busy on the offensive end.

First, the technique. Inside positioning is the name of the game when it comes to the offensive glass. If you can get through boxouts and work harder for that position, you’ll find yourself creating a lot of second chances.

When you’re amongst the trees it can be difficult to outright secure the board yourself. Podz loves to high-point the ball for tipouts and give the perimeter players a better shot to secure the board, taking the bigs out of the play.

Tipouts by themselves can lead directly to second chances. When you play a lot of minutes with Steph Curry and Klay Thompson, they’re as good as assists.

In addition to being technically sound, the effort sticks out. Podz is constantly outworking his opponents to create these second chances. That kind of hustle endears you to teammates and makes them want to compete harder.

Does that kind of effort make you want to run through a brick wall? That makes two of us.

In a season where Golden State has suffered from inconsistency, lethargy, and a lack of size, this kind of rebounding from the guard spots can be a game-changer. There will be years to come when the Warriors try to build around a smaller team. Rebounding will have to be made up on the margins. Brandin Podziemski is a guy who thrives on the margins. You go, Mr. Tumnus. You go.

The post Brandin Podziemski: Guard Rebounder Extraordinaire appeared first on Swish Theory.

There’s the way he calls for the rock down low. Rather than the typical showing of the palm to the entry-passer, Burns cups his hand and gives the ‘come here’ motion, wiggling his fingers as if he was a schoolteacher inviting a student to a quiet discussion at the front of the classroom. When the hand goes up, you imagine his defender letting out the same chagrined sigh a student would. Here we go again.

But this is where the fun begins, for the rest of us.

It starts with Burns’ 6’9-and-275-pound frame, which has been covered mostly as a circus-like oddity, less so for the way he uses it to excel on the court. Burns is stronger than every individual defender he’s faced during NC State’s eight-game winning streak to the Sweet 16, including UNC’s Armando Bacot. In the ACC Championship Game, the Tar Heels largely defended Burns straight up, allowing the big man to patiently bulldoze his way to 20 points:

This is no slight to Bacot, but rather a lesson to the rest of NC State’s opponents. If even the 6’11” 24-year-old can’t bother Burns, you better come up with a different defensive strategy. And no, half-hearted help defense isn’t going to cut it either: Burns is unfairly hand-eye coordinated for someone of his size.

Prolonging the dribble is a skill associated with elite guard-play, but Burns can maintain a live dribble no matter how physical his defender gets, no matter how many digs come from the perimeter. Thus, his post-up opportunities can cover 20 feet or last for ten seconds if you’re not careful:

But Burns hasn’t just displayed incredible strength, coordination, and touch during March. He has the finer points of post-up basketball down, and while the ‘chess-match’ analogy is incredibly overused, it comes to mind when watching Burns treat help defenders defenders like pawns.

If the path to a bucket isn’t to his liking, Burns is eager to throw the ball back out and re-post. On the following play against Texas Tech, the big man twice looks toward the middle, sees too much traffic, and kicks it out before ultimately finishing with a sweeping hook. Burns isn’t solely doing this to re-establish position — though he does that too — but to clear extra defenders out of the way. Look at #2 in white evacuate the area that Burns will steam through after the second pass.

His teammates deserve their share of credit too, doing all they can to revive the art of entry-passing. But of course they’re eager to throw it down to the big fella, who predictably combines his physical traits and court-mapping ability to create opportunities for others.

Burns has posted at least four assists in five of his last nine games, and the crown jewel of his passing performances came against Oakland in the round of 32. No zone defense is particularly amenable to post play, and especially not Oakland’s zone, a funky 1-3-1/matchup hybrid. Help defenders can attack post-ups from all sorts of angles, and while the Golden Grizzlies tried to do so against Burns, they were rarely successful.

On this play, he heads middle to test the waters, but it’s just a test, so he keeps his dribble alive at the sight of two defenders. This allows him to spin back baseline, attracting another wave of help, which leaves teammate Mohamed Diarra open under the basket:

NC State Head Coach Kevin Keatts posted Burns in the middle of the floor against Oakland, and what a luxury it was. Not only was there the typical help defender at the top of the key, but one in the strong-side corner as well. Burns was operating in a hail-storm, and it hardly phased him; his highlight of the game came here, when both of those helpers converged to create a triple-team. They would have been successful against any other player:

To review: Leaving Burns on an island is untenable; he’ll overwhelm his individual defender, and he’ll shoo away lackluster digs. He also has the smarts to bend help defense to his whim whether he wants to score the rock or dish it off. And even if you do bring the blitz, even it gets home on time, good luck ripping the ball away from DJ Burns.

There is one move that encapsulates the DJ Burns Experience, and I hope you didn’t think I was going to forget it. It’s the spin move, the spin that likely birthed his ‘Smooth Operator’ nickname, simultaneously graceful and violent, but poetic all the same.

When Burns feels a defender’s forearm on his back, it’s just a matter of time before he flips the equation. In the blink of an eye, Burns is digging his elbow into the back of the defender.

This is everything we’ve grown to love about his game. Burns uses the move to both get by his defender and escape help defense. And while it’s one thing to use a spin move in the post, it’s another to do so with a live dribble. Not just any live dribble either, but one that almost puts a dent in the hardwood; he spins so violently, it’s surprising he can even control the ball again, but there’s that hand-eye coordination.

There’s a lot to love about DJ Burns. Plenty of basketball players are big, but not many combine size and strength with all the skills and smarts he possesses. Of course, all that talent hasn’t just made Burns a fan favorite during NC State’s eight-game winning streak.

It’s made him impossible to guard.

The post Why Can’t Anybody Stop DJ Burns? appeared first on Swish Theory.

Sam Merrill was once a 24-year-old rookie taken with the last draft pick, one who struggled to find a consistent role in Milwaukee. Even though he was delivering on his primary college skill, shooting the cover off the ball, he couldn’t stick. Merrill bounced to Cleveland by way of Memphis entering last year, managing 59 total minutes this past season. It felt like he had run out of chances.

Sam stuck around for an end-of-the-bench role this year, and the opportunity arrived. Cleveland was hit with an injury to star guard Darius Garland in mid-December. That setback (and a 13-12 record) felt like a potential early-season knockout for a team pushing further toward contender status.

Then Sam Merrill entered the rotation and started blasting.

Garland missed 19 games, and Cleveland managed a 15-4 record in no small part due to Merrill’s contributions. Sam let almost eight threes per game fly over his 22 MPG across this stretch. The Cavs had a new lease on their season, and Merrill had a new lease on his career. He’ll be needed even more with news of Evan Mobley’s fresh injury.

I love a good specialist, and I wanted to explore how Merrill’s strap has bought him another shot in this league, plus how coach JB Bickerstaff’s playcalling has augmented his skill. So let’s get into it.

The Mechanics

There are a lot of physical components that go into a good shooter. Squaring your body necessitates good footwork, high-level coordination, and the strength to generate momentum for the shot. To get a good idea of a shooter’s skill, looking at release speed and range are strong indicators.

Sam Merrill has a lightning-quick release:

He’s also more than capable of extending beyond the line when needed:

Quick release and deep range are important tools in what comes next. So many of these plays we’ll see would not be possible without these skills. Let’s start with the simple stuff.

Relocation Maestro

Movement is a necessity for off-ball shooters. Filling space behind drives, moving off of nail help, relocating across the baseline, or just staying busy while actions flow around you. There are many ways for Merrill to make an impact as a relocator, and he delivers:

Another relocation trait I look for is knowing when to lift from the corners to press an advantage. Merrill is quite adept at evacuating his spot at the right time to create a better passing lane and shake his defender.

Merrill also has Curry-esque moments of frantic off-ball movement that leave his man grasping for air:

The quick release and heady sense of movement have produced incredible catch-and-shoot results. Merrill sits at 45.2% on catch-and-shoot jumpers, good for a 67.8% eFG. It’s one of the best marks in the league, with prodigious volume to boot (12.4 threes attempted per 75 possessions).

That skill alone at 6’5″ would make him a viable rotation option. The play calls he enables for Cleveland take him to a new level of utility.

Off-Ball Screening

With a player able to fly off screens in either direction, you can layer extra problems for the defense onto existing actions, or call them as the initial action. There’s nothing like a pindown for a shooter with Merrill’s catch-and-shoot talent:

You can run them wide (when Merrill starts from the corner) or narrow (wing to the top of the key) and the result is the same. It puts the help defenders in a tough situation. Pindowns move toward the initial ballhandler, usually not a player the defense is keen to help off from. With the speed of the action, it’s hard to organize the help from the backside, putting a heavy burden on the defending big. However, if they choose to blitz or rise to the level, it opens up a potential slip if the shooter hits the big over the top. Decisions, decisions.

Staggered pindowns are another way of putting the defense in a decision-making nightmare:

Do you force the man guarding Merrill to navigate two straight screens? Do you switch or try to blitz one of the screens? If so, who would do the switching/blitzing? This is nearly impossible to figure out in the brief time it takes for Merrill to get around the screens and get a shot off.

Exit screens are another simple yet brutally effective way to leverage Merrill’s off-ball shooting:

With a pass coming from the top, it’s nigh impossible for the big to switch the action and contest the shot without allowing a slip from the screening big. The passer from the wing would recognize this and find the big for a higher-value shot. Instead, the onus is on the chasing defender to get around the screen, one that allows time for the screening big to adjust the angle right up to the last second. Essentially, a good exit screen is entirely on the offense’s terms.

Cleveland has also grown to employ more complex off-ball actions to spring Merrill. This “twirl” variant is a fun way to throw a series of possible screening and shooting threats at the defense:

First it’s a stagger for Merrill, then he sets a “rip” screen for Niang and finally gets a downscreen from Tristan Thompson as Niang drives to put a bow on the action. The confusion leads to three Wizards converging on Niang’s drive and by the end, nobody is within spitting distance of Merrill as he takes the shot. Confusion and misdirection are often the best weapons in a coach’s arsenal.

The use of a “rip” screen as a misdirection has been very present in how JB Bickerstaff runs actions for Merrill. Shoutout to my friend and play-by-play master Joe Hulbert for identifying this one: “rip veer”:

Merrill setting a backscreen gives his defender pause, sagging back for a second as a big or wing moves through the screen. Then a second screener arrives to give Merrill a downscreen, popping him above the arc for a three, while the defender has to process this and recover around the screen. It’s a beautiful chain of events that puts the defense in a bind.

Not all of Merrill’s success has to come from off-ball movement and layers of deception. Simple actions on (or directly around) the ball have shown some efficacy as well.

Dribble Handoffs

What’s the first play that comes to mind with any shoot-first wing? A good ol’ dribble handoff. It’s becoming the bread-and-butter play for specialists like Merrill. Kyle Korver walked so that these shooters could run.

It’s effective for a few reasons. The screen after the handoff is usually closer to the handler, opening up the shooting window faster. Depending on the handoff big, the threat of the roll/slip combined with a fake handoff forces the defending big to pick a poison. This may necessitate drop coverage of a DHO, which a shooter like Sam Merrill will destroy consistently:

Drop also invites more layered DHO actions. I enjoy this pindown into DHO concept, which places undue burden on the chase defenders as Alex Len is not a blitz/level kind of big:

With the right defenders present, playing to the level of the screen or outright blitzing becomes an option against Merrill. Even a crisp show and recover can give him issues when he feels the shot is taken away. His production against these coverages is far more of a mixed bag.

Switching the action outright is another way to take away his shot from the jump. A bigger defender will have a larger radius to contest the shot.

This switching is largely enabled by Merrill’s lack of ability to counter with drives. Though this is an article on shooting prowess, it’s important to understand how the absence of viable counters affects this shooting ability. Teams have learned to sell out to deny the shot and risk his drives, knowing he is unlikely to make them pay going downhill.

Even with aggressive coverages, the purity of Merrill’s release and footwork skill can burn them even in the tightest windows:

Double-pitch DHOs act as a way for Merrill to feel out the coverage while still pressing the advantage against the defense. It serves to find a new angle for more separation while buying important time Merrill can use to his advantage:

The DHO looks are by far the most common usage for Merrill in direct actions, and he’ll have time to work on his counters against non-drop coverages. Though simple and with plenty of utility, it’s not my favorite direct action Cleveland has deployed for him.

Ball Screen Actions

Shoot-first wings or guards as ball screeners have been a fun league-wide development over the past several years. Though not as complex as Golden State’s actions for Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson or the Isaiah Joe screens in Oklahoma City, Cleveland is feeling out some Merrill screens as a tool for their primary offensive weapons.

A tidy pick-and-fade puts the defense at a quick disadvantage:

This guard-guard screening brings uncertainty to the defender on Merrill. Guards are less used to navigating screen actions from behind than bigs. When setting screens for Donovan Mitchell, a prolific driver and pull-up shooter, a switch or over must be navigated quickly so Cleveland’s All-Star guard doesn’t get open space. It’s difficult to do this while properly covering Merrill’s fade.

The guards assigned to Merrill are not going to be the cream of the defensive crop, especially when playing off of Mitchell and Garland. This is a simple and effective way to put subpar defenders directly in the action against their star creators.

Bickerstaff likes to add layers to this action, sometimes by adding a flare screen for Merrill after the initial screen:

Good luck switching and navigating that one properly.

Processing a screen from Merrill is already difficult enough for the players defending the action. If he ghosts the screen entirely into a fade, that processing window becomes even tighter.

Amazingly, Cleveland can get utility from an action where everyone knows what Merrill is going to do. Is he going to roll to the rim or slip? Absolutely not. That man is fading. And still, it creates enough matchup difficulty that the defense cannot properly contain him.

Wrapping Up

With news of Evan Mobley‘s injury, Cleveland will once again find themselves in heavy need of Merrill’s talent. Their bigger forwards will have to slide down positionally, only furthering the need for his shooting off the ball to create space.

Under contract for one more year, it feels all but guaranteed that he has earned a place on the team going forward. Even if Merrill fails to grow beyond a pure shooting specialist, it’s a strong enough talent to keep him a place in the league for years to come. Both Merrill and the Cavaliers have reaped the benefits of this second chance, and I’m stoked to see him fight for a playoff rotation spot down the stretch of Cleveland’s most exciting season since LeBrexit.

The post Shootin’ Sam Merrill’s Emergence appeared first on Swish Theory.

Stability: ever-present calmness as the home crowd watches you with bated breath. The senses are overloaded, but the internal dialogue remains the loudest as the player dribbles the ball into a rhythm. Feeling the grooves of the basketball, the player releases the free throw shot with a sigh of relief as it leaves their fingertips.

Chaos and stability are often considered polar opposites but that notion couldn’t be further from the truth. Chaos can not be created without stability preceding it and neither can it be reverted to stability if there is no chaos. It’s two sides of the same coin, coinciding in a symbiotic relationship.

In its essence, basketball captures this conundrum perfectly. The game is built on its dynamism, ever-changing conditions that are presented to players and their teams, consistently being asked to adapt to the flow of chaos and stability.

As the rhythm of basketball echoes the interplay between chaos and stability, how does a young player develop through that? What allows them to reach that path of stardom in this subtle dance between spontaneity and composure? Especially when it may not seem apparent, and those players end up reaching those heights in unexpected, unorthodox avenues.

I believe the answer to these questions lies within three concepts that have cemented and formed my philosophy on NBA draft scouting and player projection. These three pillars of my philosophy for projecting stars are development curves, skill intersections, and role malleability.

False Ceilings

Let me start with the first pillar: development curves. Development is never linear and for that reason, it is crucial to watch how a prospect plays over their basketball careers and how many meaningful experiences they have throughout that young career. It helps paint the bigger picture with a prospect, understanding what skills they started with and how they’ve developed those skills over a period of time. 

To me, this is what a development curve is. Imagine a graph that charted the progressions and regression of a player over time, the average line would look like an exponential curve between those deviations whether that player is improving or in some cases getting worse.

That’s what is happening here: the red dots represent the different improvements in skills over a y-axis and x-axis, axes that showcase production and the timeframe respectively. Different players have different curves, some less steep than the example above and some of them where the growth is far more exponential, a line rapidly reaching new heights in a short amount of time.

Extremely steep development curves are where NBA stars are born. This type of growth in a prospect can be explained with various reasons, for example, it could be a physical growth spurt or they improved their shot or maybe they even begin to understand the game to a higher degree after starting to play the game at a later age compared to their peers.

Regardless of what that reasoning may be, this is what affects the steepness of the curve. When growth happens rapidly in a short amount of time and it leads to efficient production, it opens up the capacity to take on more of a workload as a player, acquiring new skills as the foundational skills that preceded them bolster.

Oftentimes, these types of development curves are hiding in plain sight due to the aesthetic and archetypal biases a prospect may be confined to. Coined by Matt Powers, my colleagues here at Swish Theory have frequently delved into what it means to be a false ceiling prospect. False ceiling prospects are those who have extremely steep development curves, yet their roles often obscure the anticipation of reaching greater heights due to the perceived limited upside.

The best recent example of this is with Franz Wagner, as Michael Neff describes it in his piece, Wagner was a highly productive sophomore at Michigan who was close to the age of a freshman, but likely fell in the draft due to his role on that team. Playing as a connector and a high-level defender, I can see why teams were lower on that type of player, especially when it meant taking a player who may not have enough on-ball equity extremely high.

Today, Franz looks like he should have gone far higher than the 8th pick in hindsight as he toggles between being a secondary and primary creator for the Orlando Magic. For the people who only watched Franz at Michigan, this may have come across as a huge surprise but these higher-level creation reps were hidden in Franz’s tape when he played for a pro team in Germany, ALBA Berlin.

You can see the idea of what Franz would be doing on far higher volume in the league, a crafty pick-and-roll operator with scoring decisiveness that could weaponize his size, touch, footwork, and deceleration on drives.

Taking a glance at his stats at Michigan, another reason why Franz was a false-ceiling prospect is that he was productive and functional in so many areas of basketball. This allowed him to carve out a role seamlessly in the NBA, further enabling him to grow his on-ball creation as he could provide high-level ancillary value to stay on the court while having plenty of opportunities to polish his craft in the pick-and-roll on a 21-51 Orlando Magic team.

The contradiction here is that Franz was a high-floor prospect, and for many, that meant the upside was potentially capped. However, a young player with a high number of baseline skills would inherently have a higher upside due to carving a niche in the NBA early. This idea of upside is further compounded when a player has a complimentary intersection of skills/attributes as Franz does.

A Chain of Skills

Another important idea in projecting stars has been identifying what tools and skills a player might have to lead them down that pathway. What I have come to learn is that more than a singular attribute of a player, it is the connection between those skills and how those intersections project to being functional on a basketball court. This is where my second pillar, skill intersections, comes into play.

Now visualize a steel chain, tightly interlocked between each chainlink that reinforces the overall strength of the chain. You can try to pull on the chain and try to rip it apart but it will maintain its structure, supported by the strength of each link working together.

A basketball player’s skillset and attributes can be similarly imagined, where an individual skill or athletic tool is its own part of the chain. Each skill and tool intersects in unique ways on the court, and sometimes that intersection can even be detrimental. Every player has strengths and weaknesses, but it becomes far more imperative to look at how those strengths intersect with each other and how they can make up for the weaker links in a player’s chain of skills.

For example, let us take a player that is 6’ 7” and is an uber athlete. The player might have NBA size, a great first step, and great leaping tools, these attributes give the player the margins to be a good driver and cutter. However, let’s say this player has a weak handle and sub-par touch. It becomes far more difficult for this player to drive to the rim functionally. When they do get past the first and second lines of defense and there is a presence at the rim, this player will not have the ability to create a counter like a midrange jumper or floater due to the touch. This intersection would then instead become counterproductive, where the weaker handle and touch can be seen as broken chain links that are destructive to the integrity of the overall chain. Due to the depth of talent in the NBA, it would require some truly outlier defense to offset being a 6’ 7” roll man since most NBA bigs can provide that offensive value at a much larger size.

What happens on the flip side of this, when the skills and tools complement each other on the court? Let’s explore how it functioned with Desmond Bane.

The 30th pick in the 2020 NBA draft had spent his last four years prior at TCU, where the 6’6” sharpshooter improved as a shot creator with each year. Extremely productive as a senior, Bane was stretching college defenses thin with his shooting volume and versatility.

Shooting over hard closeouts effectively, making the right passing read out of pick and roll, and being able to funnel wings and slower guards on defense, Bane looked like the makings of a good rotational player at the very least. So why did he end up going so low in the draft in hindsight?

Bane falling to the 30th pick in the 2020 NBA draft was a classic case of anchoring bias. Anchoring bias is a cognitive bias that causes a subject to depend heavily on the first piece of information given to them. In the case of Desmond Bane, it was two data points: his age and negative wingspan.

Indicated by his 13.3 free throw rate, Bane’s handle was still on the weaker side for NBA-caliber wings and guards, making those two data points more prominent for NBA decision-makers. With age being a common proxy for upside and a negative wingspan that could affect his most translatable NBA skill which was shooting, I can understand why teams were hesitant to pick him earlier.

What teams failed to factor in was even with Bane’s negative wingspan, he was truly a unique shooter. He had micro-skills as a shooter that would allow him to operate in NBA margins; his shooting motion was extremely quick and his shooting platform was often away from the long, outstretched arms of defenders due to the high release point.

You could see this consistently in games, even when Bane’s handle took away from his shot windows, he was able to manufacture this space with the usage of screens and creativity when he had to pick up his dribble. Just watch as he tormented a Kansas team with length using his quick and high-release.

Fast forward to the 2023-24 NBA season and Bane looks like an All-Star, the Grizzlies have signed him to a rookie max extension, and the same handle issues are no longer a real concern as he averages 24.4 points a game on 59.7 TS%. How did he get to this point so quickly?

Bane had his flaws but what allowed his game to translate was his complementary intersection of basketball skills and physical attributes. Yes, he had a negative wingspan, and that caused him to gather the ball higher with his handle but the positives he had worked in complementary ways to overcome those issues. Ways that gave him developmental pathways for higher-level creation against better competition.

Drafted to the Grizzlies, Bane would not be required to immediately create like he did his senior year at TCU, where those handling issues would be more problematic at the NBA level. Playing off of creators like Ja Morant, Bane could scale next to these players effectively with his shooting and passing. Primarily as an off-the-catch scorer, Bane could attack tilted defenses with his shooting and straight-line driving, giving him the space to drive more often as the advantage creators on the Grizzlies and simplified role gave Bane the margins to improve his handle. What improved his margins to a higher degree is the unique intersection of shooting skill and uber-strength that Bane had.

Where his handle lacked, upper body strength enabled Bane to get into the chests of defenders and carve space for finishing angles. Due to the degree of shooter he is, he often receives a hard closeout where he could then act upon a defender that was off balance. This, NBA spacing and having a strong lower half would then allow him to consistently add handle counters like different stride lengths, throw-ahead dribbles, and change of pace. This combination of shooting touch and strength at 6’ 6” made him a strong play finisher and improved his handle in a short amount of time, allowing the Grizzlies to scale his usage up as a creator as time passed by.

Bane’s positive skills and attributes meshed well with his NBA role, each positive link in his chain of skills accommodating where the chain was cracked. Those chainlinks grew stronger over time and it led to a chain of skills that was far stronger than before.

This process of improvement would not be possible if it were not for the number of roles Bane played throughout his pre-NBA career that let him scale quickly in the league. As important as it is to identify a player’s chain of skills and understand what development curve they are on, a common trend that I have begun to notice with unorthodox players that grow quickly in a short period is role malleability.

How Do You Help Your Team Win?

We’re finally here, the crux of this piece and my third pillar of player projection: role malleability.

To me, role malleability is another step above the commonly used term in the discipline of basketball, role versatility. While role versatility looks at the spectrum of roles a player can navigate, role malleability takes a magnifying glass to that concept and looks at how productive a player is in those multiple roles and more importantly how quickly that player can adapt to a change in role.

Why would that be important? Remember how I talked about basketball being this subtle dance between chaos and stability? As an invasion sport, games in which the aim is to invade an opponent’s territory and score a goal or point, basketball is mostly in a state of chaos and this can often make it difficult for players to adapt to different basketball requirements quickly, especially for younger players.

Since the realm of sports is infused with the uncertainty of outcomes (Baimbridge, 1998), the athletes and spectators must therefore be prepared to adapt to the changing circumstances (Rahman, Husain, 2022). The productivity of a basketball player is in essence how effectively and quickly they are meeting ever-changing demands on the court.

Whether it’s from game to game or possession to possession, this flexibility to adapt to new constraints quickly and consistently can be used as a proxy for high-level feel in scouting. As Evan Zaucha explains in his piece, he describes feel as the sum of a player’s pattern recognition, visual processing (especially spatial recognition), and processing speed. Role malleability causes a player to consistently test these tenets of feel and this is why I believe it can open more pathways to stardom for a player.

Furthermore, I believe this theory on role malleability is further rooted in the work and research done on the concepts of cognitive flexibility in sports psychology. 

Cognitive flexibility is the human ability to adapt cognitive processing strategies to face new and unexpected conditions in the environment (Cañas et al. 2003). When a person performs a complex task their behavior needs to be adapted to the environmental conditions in which the task is being performed. However, these conditions continue to change as the task develops, therefore in order to be flexible, a person has to focus attention on these conditions on a regular basis. In addition to this, in order to adapt their behavior to the new conditions, the person needs to restructure their knowledge so as to effectively interpret the new situation and the new task requirements(Cañas et al. 2005). 

Cognitive processing strategies, in the context of this definition, are a sequence of operations that search through a problem space (Payne et al. 1993). In other words, role malleability is this exact concept of adapting different cognitive processing strategies to various stimuli. The rate at which younger players can process and adapt to new stimuli enables the mastery of skills in different environments, which therefore gives players the ability to develop new micro-skills upon their foundational skills.

This has been seen in research for other sports. Evidence for adaptability has been reported in unstructured, non-coached games of cricket and soccer (Araujo et al., 2010; Phillips et al., 2010a; Weissensteiner et al., 2009). The variability (e.g. different environment, different ball) experienced by players provided them with an opportunity to develop their sport-specific adaptability; although appearing to specialize early, the extreme variability in constraints they experienced allowed them to benefit from important aspects of both early specialization (accumulation of practice hours) and sampling (Potter, 2017).

A 2018 study (by Reddy et al.) found that brain state flexibility accompanied motor-skill acquisition. They proposed a time-time network for the application of graph theory in brain networks. The results were quite intriguing as they identified two canonical brain states associated with motor sequence learning. One key element they found was that the brain switches between states more frequently in later stages of learning. I believe this element lends itself to the adaptive part of role malleability. Problem-solving becomes more creative and layered when there is true mastery of skills.

Playing different offensive or defensive roles gives the player the opportunity to master the base skills needed to perform that role. With new constraints, players can keep adding micro-skills in response. As the rate of improvement increases, it is a sign that the player is capable of more, and coaches can then increase their workload and introduce them to a new set of constraints. 

This process leading to skill acquisition is the reason why I believe so many players who experience this throughout their young careers have experienced early success in the modern NBA. The most recent examples of this are players like Franz Wagner, Desmond Bane, Jalen Williams, Scottie Barnes, Austin Reaves, Gordon Hayward, and Brandon Miller. 

These players played several different roles over a wide range of competition levels, enabling them to master skills in those roles which could translate when adapting to more complex constraints. This allowed them to acquire new skills far more rapidly as their usage increased.

Oftentimes coaches and players will talk about the game slowing down for star players; I believe this is essentially what they mean. In the chaos of an invasion sport, stardom is found in those who find stability in that very chaos. This is due to the mastery of different roles lending itself to processing the same decisions at a quicker rate, unfazed by new obstacles thrown in the player’s way.  

A prime example of this is the OKC Thunder’s Jalen Williams. Jalen Williams played three years for the Santa Clara Broncos before he got to the NBA, where he played many offensive roles throughout his college career. Before getting to Santa Clara, Williams had a massive growth spurt from 6’ 0” to 6’ 6” by his senior year in high school. Playing as a point guard his entire life up until that point, his ball skills were still there but he had to get accustomed to his new measurements. It takes a while for a player to get used to being coordinated with their new body, William’s body was a new set of constraints for him to recalibrate. 

William’s coaches eased him into offensive usage, playing mostly as a connector attacking closeouts his freshman year, growing into more of a second-side creator his sophomore year, and finally excelling in primary usage on the ball his junior year. Jalen William’s unique intersection of ball handling, touch, and feel at his size allowed him to scale to a number of different roles in his junior year, putting up production regardless of what obstacle was thrown at him. 

Due to his mastery of skills in various roles, he could find stability in the chaos of new constraints. The efficiency was an indication of that mastery and a sign that Jalen Williams could take on more of a workload against better competition. The role malleability Williams has shown he could acquire more skills at a more rapid rate, causing his development curve to become steeper. Today, Williams is the secondary creator for the second seed in the Western Conference in only year two. He’s been a swiss-army-knife wing that has been highly productive in his main role, shooting 44.7% from the arc and an overall 62.8 TS% on the season so far.

Even in the NBA, his level of role malleability still lends itself to stability when he has to operate as the primary creator in instances. He’s truly on a path to stardom as he continues to refine his skills and acquire new ones as a creator.

Shifting gears back to the draft, are there any players that fit these three pillars that I have defined? Are there any players that are highly role malleable, due to their intersection of skills allowing them to consistently adapt to new circumstances? Are any of these players on a steep development curve due to their ability to gain new skills by adapting quickly?

Enter Johnny Furphy.

The Case For Johnny Furphy

Johnny Furphy is a 19-year-old freshman who is currently starting for the 2023-24 Kansas Jayhawks. Hailing from Melbourne, Australia, Furphy comes from an athletic family deeply rooted in sports. His father, Richard, made a career as a professional Australian rules football player, while his mother achieved bronze in the Junior Olympics for diving. His older sister plays soccer for Santa Clara and his older brother played basketball and is now a professional Australian football player.

Growing up in such a competitive household, where sports were a way of life, had a significant impact on Furphy. Johnny’s brother, Joe, who is five years older, played a pivotal role in sparking Johnny’s interest in basketball. Johnny Furphy started by playing pick-up with his older brother and his brother’s friends. Being undersized and the youngest for the longest time, Furphy gained an edge that you can see flare consistently when he’s on the basketball court.

For the longest time, Furphy was one of the smaller players on the court. Basketball was always the sport he enjoyed the most, but Furphy played other sports like Australian rules football and cricket during his time in school.

At the height of the pandemic, things drastically changed for Furphy. He was a late bloomer, but the former 5’ 8” guard had grown to 6’ 8” in a short time, a massive growth spurt as reported by Shreyas Laddha of the Kansas City Star. However, due to the strict COVID restrictions in Melbourne, Furphy could not play organized basketball for nearly two years.

Essentially losing his early high school years of basketball, Furphy had to get used to his new body, especially in the context of basketball. Furphy had to get his new body up to speed with all of the ball skills and feel he gained as a small guard. Barely making state teams before his growth spurt, Furphy got his chance to develop his game and body in his senior year with Australia’s Centre of Excellence, a training program for future national Australian basketball players where we’ve seen recent top-ten picks like Dyson Daniels and Josh Giddey come through.

Furphy was a relative unknown in basketball circles due to this development curve he’s been on, but he truly made his name in the summer of 2023 at the NBA Academy Games where he broke out in front of multiple pro scouts and college coaches. The college offers started pouring in, fast forward a couple of months and Furphy is a high-level contributor to a 21-8 Kansas team.

He may only be 19 today, but Furphy’s roller coaster ride of a start to hoops makes him pretty young in terms of high-level basketball experience. His ‘basketball age,’ is far lower when you compare him to the average 19-year-old. The growth spurt made his development curve steeper, and even with the lack of experience and time to grow into his body, he’s been extremely productive in a scaled role as a freshman. Similar to Jalen William’s late growth spurt, Furphy’s newfound size opened up far more pathways as a basketball player. This is one of the reasons why I believe Furphy is a false-ceiling prospect.

Furphy’s Chain of Skills

Before getting into Furphy’s production, let’s take a look at his skills, attributes, and how they intersect on the court.

Standing at 6’8”, potentially reaching 6’9” in shoes, Johnny Furphy possesses prototypical NBA size and length for the forward-wing position, complemented by a long wingspan spanning between 6’11” and 7’0”. Still gaining strength and weight, Furphy weighs a reported 202 pounds. At 19, he has a skinny frame, but this has not deterred him from being aggressive and physical on the court.

Watching him play over the past couple of years, you can see Furphy has high levels of touch and that translates to his most bankable NBA skill: shooting. Furphy is a pretty advanced shooter considering his experience, shooting with high volume and versatility that includes shots off of movement, off the dribble, above the break in transition, and catch-and-shoot. His mechanics have developed over the years, oftentimes having to accommodate for his lack of lower-body strength with a wider base. Today, Furphy’s shot is a 1.5-motion jumper with a high point of release, even mixing in no dip threes when extremely hard closeouts come his way.

The strongest facet of his shooting has been catch-and-shoot, but the capability to add different shots to his arsenal in a short period is a massive sign that he could be a high-level shooter.

I’ve compiled his shooting throughout these past couple of years, and you can see Furphy’s mechanics were initially accommodating for upper and lower body strength. A wider base, low release, and his knees protruding forward are different parts of his mechanics accommodating to larger distances. Even off movement, his stability was not great and self-organization was extremely slow, often needing a rhythm dribble to get into his shot. In just a year, Furphy has gained core strength and improved stability throughout his body, leading to better energy transfer throughout his kinetic chain and that is shining through in his efficiency.

Furphy adding this versatility while shooting with high volume is a proxy for the growing shooting confidence that he and his coaches have in him. What makes this truly impressive is that Furphy has dealt with a weaker lower half since he had his growth spurt, and has not been able to make massive strength gains here due to dealing with minor shin injuries before being recruited to the Centre of Excellence and a severe case of shin splints before his season started at Kansas. The injuries added an extra obstacle to developing his lower half strength due to being in the rehab process.

Even with his weaker lower half, Furphy has explosion and a quick load time off of two feet. He doesn’t cover a lot of distance vertically but this is where his length helps him extend into finishes, which is further strengthened by his ability to explode over the top of defenses off of his back foot. You can really see this in Furphy’s offensive rebounding, drives/cuts to the rim in the halfcourt, and when he attacks the rim in transition.

Give Furphy an open lane to build up momentum and it becomes really difficult to stop him at the rim due to his physicality, functional strength, and leaping mechanics. This intersection of athletic traits and shooting touch gives Furphy a baseline as a high-level play finisher in the NBA, weaponizing it when given space and attacking defenses that are in scramble mode.

But what about his ability to create at a higher degree? This is where his feel kicks in. Furphy already has an advanced understanding of spacing, constantly relocating off the ball and cutting into space for finishes and offensive rebounds. When he does have the ball in his hands, he’s shown to make one-level reads with relatively quick processing.

A 6’ 9” shooter with bounce and connective passing at 19 is a great baseline but to project even higher forms of creation, it requires an NBA player to be able to self-create half-court drives on volume. This is the weakest part of Furphy’s chain of skills on the offensive end, where a weak handle hampers his creation reps.

As a driver, Furphy does have one unique aspect: lower body flexibility. Although he’s a large player, Furphy is consistently able to get lower than players on drives and leverage his physicality. This is in part due to his shin angles, allowing him to get lower and use his shoulder as a lever to manufacture space.

Furphy doesn’t create his advantages on drives in orthodox ways using burst, it’s a pure combination of lower-half flexibility and strength. When he can get deep in the paint, his explosive last stride, touch off the glass, and length help him finish these drives. The problem is what happens in between those two events.

His handle limits so much of his drives, unable to react effectively to stunts and digs, causing him to gather extremely early on drives and rely on his last stride and touch. Furphy has to look at his handle consistently on drives too, which is another reason why he’s slow to react to help with his handle.

Similar to freshmen Bane in that way, it isn’t a death sentence to Furphy’s upside as a creator. Like Bane, he has tools that will help him work the handle issues in NBA margins. Furphy has already added handle counters like deceleration, behind-the-back crossovers, and jabs out of triple-threat situations in the past year. What he needs to work on is his ball control, introducing more changes of direction and different stride lengths to freeze defenders, all things he’s capable of athletically with improved lower body strength.

When lack of space is the constraint given to Furphy’s handle, his issues there become far more emphatic but in transition, he’s able to problem-solve with his handle in space and bring the ball up the floor functionally.

As someone who can grab an offensive rebound or create a steal by getting into passing lanes, Furphy’s aggression in transition offense while being able to weaponize his feel and touch from the three levels of the court gives Furphy a unique intersection of skills on the court. Skills that thrive off of each other, enabling him to carve a role early regardless of competition.

Furphy’s Role Malleability

A lack of experience would have faltered most young players when it comes to adapting to different roles, Furphy on the other hand has shown he can be productive in a wide range of roles. Even before he truly started playing high levels of competition, Furphy was able to relatively master transition offense due to his background in another invasion sport, Australian rules football. Gaining reps where you have to cover massive amounts of ground over a gigantic field gave Furphy the offensive skills to be aggressive in space. As a contact-heavy sport, this is where Furphy’s functional strength comes from as well because he would have to consistently absorb contact and finish plays in football.

As he gained more opportunities to play basketball after his growth spurt, Furphy was put in a number of offensive roles throughout various levels of competition. Playing mostly off-the-ball early on, he honed his off-ball feel and scoring in those roles which eventually allowed him to start running second-side pick-and-rolls when the primary action failed. Experience polished his skills, allowing him to eventually run pick-and-rolls as the primary ball-handler in limited reps. This forms a parallel with how Franz Wagner would often adapt effectively to various off-ball roles at the same age, but when he was used as the primary pick-and-roll handler he was still productive in those limited reps (fifteen possessions) in his final year with ALBA Berlin. Similarly, whether it was game to game or possession to possession, Furphy’s productivity in multiple roles was apparent.

Are there any areas where he has not been productive? I haven’t spoken about Furphy’s defense yet but there is a reason for that. College teams have consistently attacked Furphy in space since he’s been hit-or-miss when it comes to containing drives. Furphy also has issues navigating screens as a bigger player but I believe there is a common reason for both.

You guessed it, it’s lower body strength. Due to his lack of strength, he’s unable to get low enough in defensive positioning and stay with players laterally. This also limits him in screen navigation as he’s unable to get low enough, turn the corner, and explode back into the play. Furphy is role-versatile when it comes to defense but I would not say he is malleable enough in this area. He can play a multitude of roles on this end, whether it’s at the point of attack, in gaps, or even some deterrence at the rim but he does not truly thrive in any of these roles outside of being a nail defender. There is some low-hanging fruit with the lower half development, allowing him to become more stable on closeouts and stay laterally with offensive players, but his ceiling on the defensive end is dependent on the degree of strength he’s able to add.

Regardless of the defense, Furphy has been extremely productive in a scaled off-ball role at Kansas. Playing in a high-major system like Kansas, there are far fewer on-ball flashes for Furphy in this role. Due to how their system operates, I believe Kansas would rather Furphy use his gravity on the perimeter to space the floor and do not want him to drive more in their half-court offense with creators like Kevin Mccullar able to take on that offensive load.

The important part here, in the context of Furphy’s projection, is that he has been productive in the role that he’s been given.

This did not mean the development process ended, in fact with more complex problems to solve in a comfortable role, Furphy has been able to add micro-skills to meet his new constraints. One of these micro-skills is baiting fouls when he’s finishing a play. He’s been far more effective at selling contact in these possessions and that is apparent from his 42.9 free-throw-rate. In pre-college samples that same free throw rate was consistently in the sub-thirty range.

Conclusion

While I believe Furphy will be a good NBA player in most contexts, like most prospects, reaching his upper-end outcomes as a creator will need an optimal development environment. An NBA team with cemented creators and a DHO big will enable that team to leverage Furphy’s off-ball value early on. The creators can help his handle limitations stand out less, while a DHO big will find him on cuts and in handoffs as a shooter. Letting Furphy become comfortable at the NBA level will then open up his creation pathways. There is a case that Furphy’s intersection of skills will allow him to develop his handle as an off-the-catch scorer, attacking tilted defenses like Desmond Bane did with the Grizzlies early on. This should give him the time off the court and the space on the court to fix the weaker links in his chain of skills.

The skill intersection, the ability to play on and off the ball, and his current development curve give Furphy the ability to scale to most basketball contexts with the ability to take on more of a workload as a creator when experience builds up.

He’s a false ceiling prospect for these very reasons. In most draft classes, a young dribble-pass-shoot wing with the potential for above-average defense would justifiably be a top-10 pick. In a class, where that archetype is not only rare but the top of the draft is wide open, I believe it is justified to take Johnny Furphy with a top-5 pick in the 2024 NBA Draft.

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