2023 NBA Draft Guide

Marcus Sasser is a classic example of an elite college guard trying to make the transition to an effective NBA backup PG. His draft status is hindered a bit by age (22) and physical limitations (listed at 6’2’’), but Sasser makes up for it by being one of the most skilled offensive players in the draft. The main selling point for Sasser as a pro will be his jumper, as he shot 39.9% from 3pt on an incredible volume of 14.6 3PA/100 possessions over his final 2 years at Houston. He has the handle and shift to get his own looks off the dribble, but he also has plenty of experience playing off other creators and thriving as a shooter off the ball. Despite his lack of size, Sasser isn’t necessarily doomed to be a poor NBA defender either, as he’s great at navigating screens at the point of attack and is longer than you’d expect with a 6’7’’ wingspan. There’s always questions about upside and potential ceiling with smaller, older guard prospects, but Sasser’s elite skill (shooting) and lack of flaws in other areas gives him a real chance to stick.

You may not have noticed, but Furman was a top 100 team in the country each and every of Jalen Slawson’s five season with the Paladins. That had only happened once in the ten years prior. Slawson surged particularly in his final three seasons, putting up 4+ Box Plus Minus in each season. He shot 63%, 58%, 64% true shooting in those three seasons, and assisted over one in five made field goals while rebounding over one in five opponent misses. His steal and block rates were both top 10 in conference each of the three years, and more often than not top 5.

Below the radar, Slawson has one of the most stellar resumes in the NCAA. He has even branched out as a shooter, at 34% on 260 attempts from 2021 to 2023. Furman ran the ball through him often in Delay sets, letting Slawson orchestrate from the top of the key. He does not have initiator type upside, but great connector and glue guy instincts to keep a scheme solid. If he were a bit more mobile he’d be a solid first round bet, but as he can provide bench value quickly in his NBA career.

Adama Sanogo was the best player on a UConn team that cruised by everyone en route to a National Championship. The pitch here is more than just absurd college production: Sanogo has legitimate NBA skills. While limited vertically at 6’9” and lacking pop off of two feet, he uses his massive frame and feathery touch to carve out space and finish in the paint. This year he shot an uber-efficient 75.3% on non-dunk rim attempts. His combination of power and finesse is unique. He’s built like a bowling ball at 259 lbs but has flashed impressive coordination as a DHO handler and closeout attacker. He thrived as a passer in UConn’s motion offense, making quick and accurate reads to cutters and spot-up shooters. I like Sanogo as a shooting bet, too. His release point is a bit low, and he needs time to get it off, but his statistical indicators are strong (41% from mid-range, 36.5% from three on 52 attempts, and 76.6% from the foul line). He’ll be limited defensively by his size and inability to elevate quickly, but Sanogo has a 7’3” wingspan, is extremely physical, crashes the glass with authority, and is pretty light on his feet. He’s a guy who could play up high in PnR coverage. Sanogo does too many things well to not be in first-round consideration. 

Amari Bailey was a late riser throughout this draft cycle with his play improving late in the year where he was more impactful versus difficult opponents in conference play and in the NCAA tournament. Bailey is a dribble/pass/shoot guard with a sturdy defensive frame at the guard position that can really throw ballhandlers off. He’s great at the point of attack where he uses his strength and activity to bother guards. He also has great technique when sliding with guards and won’t be caught out of place often. On offense, Bailey has grown throughout the year as a ballhandler and shooter. Although Bailey is a solid ballhandler, he is more a combo guard on offense who can play off of another primary initiator and attack from there. He’s an apt enough passer to make good reads when needed but you shouldn’t rely on him to run the show. He’s already shown to be a solid finisher at the rim and his shot has gotten better as well, both in catch-and-shoot and pull-up situations. Bailey has a lot of room to grow and shows to be a plus playing alongside star players which will always keep him as a positive player. 

Noah Clowney is one of the youngest players in the class, but always does the dirty work on the court from setting screens, boxing out and high pointing balls on the offensive and defensive glass. Clowney was an excellent finisher last year, converting over 60% of his non-dunk rim attempts. That touch around the rim, when viewed in conjunction with his age and healthy 7.2 three point attempts per 100 possessions, makes for a strong shooting projection. Clowney may not have true versatility from the perimeter, but I would be shocked if he was not a capable spacer off the catch by the end of his rookie deal.

The questions for Clowney really revolve around upside. He was not much of an event creator at Alabama and his processing speed on both ends left a little to be desired. Clowney is incredibly advanced within his role for his age, but his fully actualized version is still under construction. If he is able to operate as a true primary rim protector or begin to refine some of his flashes attacking closeouts or on the short roll his value as a mid to late first begins to look a whole lot more appealing. 

Ricky Council IV’s blend of slashing and midrange shotmaking off the dribble makes him one of the toughest one-on-one covers in this draft class. He seemingly got to the rim whenever he wanted last year (even while dealing with some of the worst spacing in college basketball) and was efficient when he got there – highlighted by a 66.7 FG% at the rim, 79.4% on 10.1 FTA/100, and 36 dunks in 36 games last year. Ricky’s primary flaw is consistently taking and making 3’s (under 1.0 made 3’s per game each year in college), which unfortunately is a glaring weakness for a perimeter player in today’s game. Council will definitely need to improve his consistency from behind the arc in addition to staying more engaged on defense, but his ability to create his own shot from 2pt range will give him a strong foundation to build off of as an NBA player.

Being 6’6’’, 210 pounds has its advantages as a shooter, particularly in a system that understands how to maximize that height within scheme. Julian Strawther had that at Gonzaga, famously coming up clutch with a deep three to give the Zags a huge Madness win. But Strawther will survive at the next level doing the smaller things, like taking advantage of his frame to screen and rebound, a potent combination with three point shooting (off ball pick and pops will never go out of style). Limiting Strawther is his poor change of direction, meaning spot up opportunities have to be more straight on than the more nimble movement shooters, clocking in at the 5th percentile in the shuttle run. This also limits the scheme he can survive in on defense, preferable in a zone-like system than being put on an island on the perimeter or chasing around too many screens. For that reason, he is only a second rounder here.

One of the later risers in the draft, Toumani Camara caught eyes during the cycle due to his dominant performance at Portsmouth. The Belgian forward out of Dayton University has had an interesting collegiate career, beginning in Georgia as a rim running big, and ending his career in Dayton as the team’s main engine. Surrounded by shooters and bigs, Toumani flourished in the Dayton system this year, attacking the rim, generating post ups, and playing a great two-big game with DaRon Holmes. Now, Camara looks to be just the 3rd Belgian born player to get drafted. His year over year improvement has been one of the most impressive in this class, going from being a 17% 3 point shooter his freshman season, to shooting 36% from 3 on good volume this past year. Camara shot 72% at the rim, 39% from midrange as well to go along with his 3 point shooting this season, high marks for a player who struggled mightily at the rim in years prior.

What makes Camara such a unique prospect is his combination of size, athleticism and feel that create a tweener-esque playstyle as he operates a lot from the low post. Playing a two-big game in Dayton, Camara learned how to operate on the wings, play big-to-big, as well as playing as a small ball 5 a lot throughout the year. His ability to attack the rim helped generate open shots for Dayton’s shooters, and his ball-handling allowed him to slither past defenders with ease. While Camara is far from the perfect prospect, a lesser role at the NBA level could benefit him as he will be able to focus on his strengths of connective passing and attacking closeouts, rather than creating for an entire offense. I believe that the role reduction Camara will have, as well as certain traits he exhibits (ambidextrous and consistent year-over-year improvement) will benefit him as he adjusts to the NBA and finds new ways to be an impact player at the next level. His all-around game will benefit a team that needs creativity and size on the wings. Camara will look to make an impact with his skill set, and will only improve by continuing on his development path. 

While the Terq buzz has died down significantly since the start of the season, there’s still a potential NBA player here. Smith is a gun-slinger from range, confident pulling up from the logo at any given point in the shot clock. He made real strides as a passer, upping his assist rate from 14.2% as a freshman to 22.9% this past season, using his speedy first step to blow by his man and create kick-out and dump-off windows. He looked more comfortable attacking drop, stopping on a dime and snaking screens for quick pull-ups. My big hold-up is the physicals. Terq would be the lightest player in the league upon entering at 163 lbs, and it shows up on film. He struggles to finish against college competition (53.1% at the rim) and often finds himself engulfed by traps. Despite being light on his feet and boasting a 6’7” wingspan, he falls asleep frequently on defense. Terq’s range is exceptional enough for me to like him in the early second, but there’s a functional strength threshold for the NBA that I worry he simply doesn’t meet. 

Andre Jackson has a good case as the most unique prospect in the 2023 draft. At first glance an upperclassman with a career high of 6.8 PPG at the college level is rarely ever going to be draftable – especially when they’re a perimeter player with a below average jumpshot. What Andre DOES have going for him is legitimately one of the best combinations of athleticism + feel that we’ve seen of any prospect in recent years. He was by far the best passer on the National Champion UConn team (26.6 AST% his final year in college), while also being their most versatile defender and a lob threat at 6’6 with a 6’10 wingspan. Jackson ultimately has an uphill battle to climb due to his complete lack of scoring in the halfcourt, but if you’re betting on an outlier the long and athletic wing with incredible feel for the game is probably the right type of player to bet on.

A top 20 high school prospect by RSCI, Julian Philips made his mark at the Combine with a 43 inch max vertical (99th percentile) and strong lane agility with a seven-foot wingspan. At 6’6.75’’ without shoes, he is ideal size for an NBA wing, with the physical tools to fit in quickly. He has a strong frame, used in combination with his vertical athleticism to crash the offensive boards or look for lobs on defense. His 82% shooting from the free throw line is nice, but seems overrepresenting his shooting talent as he put up 30% from midrange and 24% from three. His swing skill will be his handle, where he displayed some flashes, particularly with his left hand in probing towards the hoop with physicality.

The intrigue with Olivier Maxence-Prosper starts with the physical tools. At 6’8 with a 7’1 wingspan O-Max has the ideal size and length of an NBA forward, and combined with solid lateral quickness gives him a clear role as a wing/forward on-ball defender. The main question for Maxence-Prosper is finding a role for him on offense. He’s a good play finisher around the rim and has flashed an improving jumper, although his career best 33.9% on 6.3 3PA/100 possessions last year is still a bit underwhelming for a non-big that doesn’t create much with the ball in his hands. Despite all his length and athleticism he hasn’t shown much as an off-ball defender either, posting just a 0.7% BLK rate over his college career. O-Max’s ability to guard multiple positions effectively gives him a clear and valuable NBA skill, but his continued development in other areas, namely shooting, will ultimately determine how much he contributes at the next level.

Jaylen Clark’s appeal lies on the defensive end, where his 5.1% steal rate ranked second amongst all High-Major NCAA players. He has quick hands on and off the ball, utilizing his 6’9” wingspan to deflect passes. He’s agile enough to navigate off-ball screens and blow-up DHO actions. There’s some Jose Alvarado in how he sneaks in for steals in the backcourt. Clark is on the smaller side for a wing at 6’5”, but his strength, length, and tenacity could allow him to take on the occasional bigger-bodied assignment. I worry about where he fits offensively at the next level as a career low-volume and low-efficiency shooter. He improved this year but only shot 32.9% from three and 29.6% in conference play. His mechanics are relatively inconsistent by my eye. There are other avenues to scoring – he has excellent feel as a cutter and offensive rebounder and has a nice spin move going downhill, but the shot will need to be there for him to play high-leverage minutes. Round one may be a bit too large an investment given my lack of confidence in his shot, and the fact that he’ll be coming off an ACL injury as a 22-year-old rookie. Still, this is a solid second-round bet who has the chance to be a rotation piece on a good team. 

Every NBA team covets players that can shoot off of movement, and Seth Lundy certainly fits this criteria. His ability to run off of screens and hit shots was extremely valuable to Penn State’s halfcourt offense this season, as he was able to hit shots off of nearly every movement imaginable. Baseline staggered screens, flares, down screens, relocations on the perimeter, etc… Lundy showcased the ability to score in all of these situations. He has a two-motion shot with a high release point, though against tighter closeouts he will speed up his motion into more of a 1.5 motion shot. He likes shooting with his right foot forward and uses a pretty wide feet tilt, allowing him to perfectly align his shot with the rim despite his broad shoulders. Occasionally he will get off balance on higher speed movements, though he is still able to sink shots in these situations.

Defensively, Lundy has a couple solid tools at his disposal. He is a solid lateral mover especially against wings, and he is able to use his strength to match the physicality of offensive players. He is a high effort on-ball defender and typically tries off-ball, though he will occasionally be a tick late on some important rotations. Lots of these were just miscommunications, and he can usually be trusted to follow his assignment in the halfcourt.

Craig Porter Jr. is limited by his height at 6’0.75’’ without shoes, but has many skills that are coveted by playoff-aspiring teams. He is a lockdown defender, elite at maximizing his size in trapping opponents in unfavorable situations, and a quick leaper with 34.5 inch standing vert. If he was a more willing shooter he would surely be higher on boards, taking just under 6 threes per 100 possessions (very few for a guard with 24% usage). But Porter will find value both driving, where he uses his dynamic athleticism to get to the backboard quickly, and as a pick and roll operator. His 1.9 assist to turnover ratio is excellent, with creativity popping on tape. Jose Alvarado is the archetype, where Porter Jr. may not be quite as 100th percentile quick but offers similar contributions for those seeking a bench guard spark plug.

A 6’7 slashing forward, Jalen Wilson is one of the most productive prospects in this year’s draft. Despite some athletic limitations – he somehow went his entire senior season without a single dunk – Wilson is skilled at leveraging his strength and craft as a driver to put pressure on the rim. He’s also developed into a respectable perimeter shooter, getting up to 33.7% on 9.3 3PA/100 possessions as a senior, backed up with a 79.9% mark at the FT line. His lack of quickness hurts him as an on-ball defender against quicker creators, but his strength and activity on the glass (career 14.4 rebounds/100 possessions) still gives him some areas of value on defense. Ultimately Wilson’s lack of high end athleticism will hold him back in some areas, but his physicality, rebounding, and ability to attack the rim will give him a chance to stick. 

The pitch here is pretty simple: Jaime Jaquez is undeniably good at basketball. He was the go-to guy on a UCLA team that went 31-6, leading the Bruins in scoring, rebounding, and usage rate while recording a 9.5 BPM. Jaquez is a funky on-ball scorer who lacks athletic pop but compensates with sharp footwork. His old-school bag features pump-fakes, spin-moves, and turnaround jumpers. His mid-range touch is exceptional, as he shot over 40% on non-rim 2’s in each of his four collegiate seasons. But what does Jaquez look like in a scaled-down role? His catch-and-shoot (32.5 FG%), free throw (73.8%), and raw 3-point (32.9%) efficiency have seen minor fluctuations over the years but have generally remained pretty stagnant. The same can be said for his 3-point volume (5.1 3PA/100). The jumper will need to be better, as I doubt he’ll have the freedom to eat up the shot clock and mosey his way to his spots at the NBA level. And while he’s an intelligent team defender, his ground coverage and lateral agility leave something to be desired. Regardless, Jaquez’s craft, size, smarts, and proven production make him an appealing second-round option. 

Wings are popular, but especially ones who can pass, switch a little and dunk in traffic. For these reasons, Justyn Mutts should be on all teams’ radars but particularly ones looking for some strength inside and enough skill to keep the ball moving. Mutts was excellent in particular finding cutters at Virginia Tech, where his assists rose to 8.3 per 100 possessions in his fifth year. With a resume of midrange shooting, Mutts’ shot isn’t broken, but whether he can effectively make corner threes at a decent rate is the swing skill to get him consistent NBA playing time. 6’6’’ with a 7’3’’ wingspan, there are worse ways to use a second round pick than the proven, productive Mutts.

Wong is the quintessential highly-decorated, uber-experienced NCAA scoring guard: he helped lead Miami to the Elite 8 in 2022, the Final Four in 2023 while winning ACC Player of the Year, was All-ACC every season besides his freshman year, and ranks 4th in all-time scoring for the Hurricanes. Wong wins as a shot creator with his creativity, shifty handle, and knack for hitting tough jumpers (41.4% on 162 non-rim 2-point attempts and 27 unassisted 3-point FGM). 

But carving out a role at the highest level will be an uphill battle. He’s pretty disruptive in the passing lanes, but is he physically capable of fighting through NBA screens? How does he finish amongst the trees (44.4% on half–court rim attempts) without elite athleticism and a mere 178 lbs. frame? How does he adjust to an ancillary role on offense? These issues keep him out of my top 40, but Wong certainly has a chance to stick around as a scoring piece off the bench. 

James Nnaji is one of the youngest prospects in this class, and while he did not play a particularly large role this past season, when he did get on the court he fit the bill of a modern run and dunk center. His physicality attacking the glass was impressive, and he was all but impossible to stop with a head of steam in the lane. Defensively it was more of the same, where his movement skills were impressive for a prospect of his size. Nnaji had flashes of reactivity that were encouraging, particularly on the defensive end, but his success was largely rooted in his outlier physical attributes.

Nnaji has little diversity to his offensive game with no reliable scoring package outside of the immediate space under the rim and poor indicators for future touch. Nnaji should be able to find a role due to his combination of size, movement skill and youth, but his upside will depend on just how effective of a defender he can become. 

Rayan Rupert is one of the most impressive perimeter defenders in the 2023 NBA draft class with a combination of length, quickness and hands that make for an incredibly pesky point of attack defender. Sporting a 7’2”+ wingspan, Rupert has the ideal dimensions for a wing stopper with the foot speed to hand with smaller guards. He’s great at using his length to contain shiftier handlers and poking at the ball from unexpected angles.

Offensively, Rupert is very much a work in progress. There are flashes of pushing in transition and some interesting passing reads, but his game as a scorer is very rudimentary. He struggles to finish through contact and is still working through the mechanics of his jumper. Rupert’s tools and potential defensive impact will earn him a chance at the next level, but he will need to find a way to impact the game offensively to stick. 

Sheppard has going for him his neat fit into the modern game as a shooting guard. He is effective in particular scoring off the catch, where he shot 130 for 332 (39%) from three over his final two college seasons. The Belmont senior led the 65th best offense in the NCAA, and has shown elite touch at the rim (61%) and midrange (39%) this season on a heavily self-assisted diet. He is unlikely the level of athlete to stand out at the next level, but will be able to fill in as a plug-and-play two guard when the likes of Kevin Huerter or Max Strus aren’t available. That is to say, a clear NBA depth piece. His strong performance at the NBA Combine scrimmage only further solidified that point.

Brown played a variety of roles for a top-notch Missouri offensive unit, seeing significant reps as a high-post hub, back-to-the-basket scorer, pick-and-roll handler, and spot-shooter. His explosiveness on face-up drives, and power as a finisher, pop on tape. His efficiency from everywhere on the court this past season was incredible, particularly his 45.5% 3-point percentage. I am skeptical of how good a shooter he truly is, given that his career average was 23.9% before this season, and the volume spike wasn’t massive (6.4 3PA/100). The passing versatility also stands out, as he does a great job directing offense from the top of the key and making quick +1 reads. 

Aside from my shooting concerns, I worry that Brown isn’t an NBA-level athlete. He struggles to leap in tight areas, so what happens when he tries to bulldoze larger rim protectors? Does he cover ground well enough defensively? Will he hold up on switches given some of his lateral agility deficiencies? I can’t answer any of these questions with confidence, meaning that the shot will need to be there if he’s to provide value on an NBA floor. 

Jordan Miller was a key part of Miami’s Final Four run as a combo wing, spotting up in addition to providing value in the interior. Miller is not afraid to mix it up despite his mere 6’4.5’’, 192 pound frame, weaponizing his seven-foot wingspan. His combination of scoring in the paint and midrange, dunking 18 times and grabbing 76 offensive boards, points to a rugged toolsy wing. He is not a shutdown defender or knockdown shooter, limiting his upside beyond second rounder, but can find use quickly in a Miami(Heat or Canes)-type system as good enough shooting, good enough finishing, good enough defending is a useful archetype.

Jalen Pickett carried a massive usage load at Penn State last season with 192 of his 215 made 2-pointers coming unassisted. While not a bursty athlete, Pickett wins with a deceptive handle and an excellent control of his pace. His patience and craft as a pick-and-roll passer and scorer stand out. A larger-bodied guard at 6’4” 202, Pickett does much of his damage in the post, using his exceptional footwork, touch, and size to create advantages down low. He’s an intelligent player with a funky creation package, but there are some glaring drawbacks here. He’ll be a 24-year-old rookie, is poor vertically (0 dunks in the last 3 college seasons), and could lack the necessary athleticism to provide any defensive value. And while Pickett is comfortable taking shots from deep off the bounce, will he be a good enough off-ball spacer to slide into a complementary role? 

The appeal of Vukcevic lies in his intersection of size and shooting touch. At over 7 feet tall in shoes, he’s willing to stroke if off-the-catch from beyond the arc, shooting 37.3% from three and 80% from the line across all competitions this past season. Vukcevic isn’t the world’s most dynamic handler or explosive driver when chased off the line, but he has enough coordination to get to his spots from mid-range and hit tough jumpers. That’s the basis of a potential rotation player, but Vukcevic’s defensive projection is murky due to his thin frame, lackluster movement skills, and awareness lapses. Can he survive on defense? Will the offense be good enough to compensate? I tend to steer clear-ish of one-way, offensive bigs, but if the shooting versatility is real at his size, he could find his way into the back of a rotation. 

Mouhamed Gueye is an interesting bet on tools and raw talent. His efficiency in college leaves a lot to be desired for someone of his size (career 52.3% TS), but a lot of that comes from the amount of tough shots he was asked to take off the dribble for a middling Washington State team. He took nearly 150 mid range jumpers last year, many of which were self created, and converted them at a 34.9% clip. He won’t have near the same freedom at higher levels that he did at WSU, especially with his inconsistencies as a passer, but there might be something there with his ability to create off the dribble if it’s toned down into a smaller role. Factor in his mobility in defense at 6’11 with a 7’4 wingspan, and Gueye could make himself a worthwhile developmental project for an NBA team.

Bates was an iso-maven, scoring 0.98 points per possession on 4.5 possessions per game (according to InStat), particularly excelling in contested midrange pull-ups. That shotmaking is encouraging following a much less efficient freshman season for Bates, who at 6’8.25’’ without shoes is able to get difficult shots off with ease. However, lack of other athletic tools to lean on means Emoni is unable to get easy offense, at least in his offensive contexts up to this point. Some time in the G League could be helpful to develop his off-ball game, where his size and shooting could translate into useful floor spacing in addition to his basic level of ball handling. More off-ball polish, in addition to leaning in to the better passing instincts, could earn Bates an eventual NBA role.

D’Moi Hodge is as reliable as a fit in a modern offense as you can find this late. His specialty with Missouri was simple: shoot as many threes as possible. And that he did. He was 11th among all high major players in three point volume, and tied for fourth in three pointers made. He also was an outlier in how many steals he swiped while being so prolific from downtown: his 5.1% steal rate tops among those with 200+ 3PA. Neither was he a single-level scoring threat, throwing down 16 dunks over the season and at least occasionally tallying a block or rebound. 

Physically, he can hang, even if he is above-average nowhere outside his shot. But the shot is sweet, to the tune of 40% on 250 threes this season. The low 70s FT% would be a concern if the mechanics did not look close to ideal as is (though it is worth pointing out that his 3P% was only mediocre before this final college season). Hodge is valuable in his ability to get up threes while remaining a physical presence, a highly sought after archetype in line with that of Jordan Hawkins who is expected to go much higher.

Abogidi adapted quickly to the level of play in the G League, where adequacy at center can go a long way for a team. While he only played 18 minutes per game (the team often preferred to go with the veteran Eric Mika in center as a connecting big), his per possession stats of 21 points and 14 rebounds per 100 possessions showed effective play. His 1.1 blocks per game led the team, though marred significantly by his constant fouling at 3.2 per game despite the limited playing time. If he can gain more discipline as he adjusts to the faster play, Abogidi has potential as a shot blocking lob threat who can also hit free throws at an around 80% rate.