Floor and Ceiling
“How is he going to stick in the league?” is a question you hear every draft season as scouts, teams and fans alike begin the inexact science of prospect evaluation and projection. Every NBA draft prospect has a unique collection of skills, but it is their bread and butter that gets them into the league and minutes on the court.
Success in the NBA is about singular excellence, even amongst its role players. While supporting skills are important and can be added over time, nearly every single player in the league has a single, defining skill upon which their on-court identity is based.
That skill slots a player into an on-court role or archetype, but its impact goes further than that. What separates star players from the rest is not just how effective their skill is, but their ability to leverage that skill for greater results.
On a macro level, it is helpful to place players into archetypes. Basketball is a team sport with an ever-churning mill of player movement. Identifying the big-picture skills of a player and how that applies to your specific team construct is inarguably positive. At the same time, particularly in the case of teenage prospects, the labels of an archetype can be inherently restricting and reductive of their potential.
For players entering the league an archetype is a big-picture term that defines your initial role and pathway to minutes, but a prototype is an outcome unique to each individual. In this piece we will dive into two prospects with an outlier combination of shooting and height. How does their skill project to an NBA floor, and how can they leverage that skill to find their own identity as a star in the league? Roll the tape and let’s dive in.
Brandon Miller
Archetype: Floor Spacer
Catch and Shoot, Deep Range, Movement Shooter
Brandon Miller is one of the greatest shooting prospects we have ever seen at his size, that is an unimpeachable fact. Miller’s combination of age, height, three point volume and usage is nearly unprecedented, resulting in one of the most dominant offensive seasons in the country.
Miller came into the year billed as a smooth shooting scorer, but his success beyond the arc is what carried his value this season. A constant threat any time he was on the court, it often felt like no three was too deep for Miller, jacking up shots well beyond the NBA line on a regular basis.
That version of extreme spacing, not just to the arc but feet beyond it, is incredibly valuable in today’s NBA. As offenses have begun to hunt threes more regularly, defenses (and their personnel) have improved in recovery. The extra few feet of space beyond the arc gives space for a cleaner look and a much longer path for the defender to take in any kind of help rotation.
In transition, Miller is a threat as soon as he passes halfcourt, a master of pace and timing when running the floor. Miller has no issue outpacing defenses in transition but is often found within the thicket of bodies as they cross halfcourt.
To some this may be a lapse in effort, but I see it as the subtle brushstrokes of a transition artist. As defenses scramble to contain the ball it is easy to lose track of shooters in a free flowing transition attack and Miller uses that to his advantage.
As the drive begins to develop Miller starts his approach, timing his arrival on the three point line in sync with the driver and positioning himself within the open space just as the defense pulls in towards the paint. That awareness of space and timing will result in a ton of easy buckets for Miller throughout his career.
His excellence in timing is fueled by Miller’s ability to find center as he relocates around the perimeter, using pristine footwork beyond the arc to rise into his shot on-balance. Miller’s transition play and his ability to score out of DHO or off-ball screen actions should solidify his floor of value in the league as one of its most scheme-able tall shooters.
Prototype: Morey-Ball Forward Initiator
PnR Operator, Drive and Kick, Ball Handling
The analytics “revolution” is a hotly contested topic, as is any topic claiming to be the answer of an unsolvable puzzle. Even in an uncertain environment, basic logic and math often go hand in hand. Threes are worth more than twos and the most efficient twos occur at the rim. What is the easiest way to get up more threes? Force the defense to rotate. How do you force the defense to rotate? Get to the rim.
The reason these “Morey-Ball” principals have worked to the extent they have is that its two core tenants, rim pressure and threes, are symbiotic. Spacing provides lanes for driving, rim pressure creates defensive rotations and open threes, rinse and repeat.
More formulaic than creative, the math-ketball style of offense makes the game simpler while providing an unsolvable problem for defenses. Brandon Miller’s game represents much of that philosophical ethos with his red-hot shooting and burgeoning game as a drive and kick initiator.
Miller averaged over two self-created rim attempts per game this season, an impressive number for a jumper-oriented wing scorer, and his growth operating out of ball screens as the year went along was incredibly impressive.
Miller has a long slender build, but is a strength-based athlete. This presents a few challenges for Miller as a creator and has forced him to develop his craft as a driver rather than relying on burst or brute force.
When operating out of ball screens Miller does a great job using misdirection, change of pace and wide-angle drives to manufacture lanes to the hoop, gradually growing in effectiveness as the year progressed.
While Miller isn’t particularly “bursty” he has long strides and impressive strength digging out of pseudo-lunges as he unfolds his limbs attacking the paint.Combined with a long wingspan and a genuine willingness to initiate contact, Miller was a genuine threat attacking the basket in Alabama’s pace and space scheme.
As a result of his continued growth as a driver, Miller began to draw not only defensive attention but defensive help. Standing at ~6’9”, Miller was able to easily see over the top of defenses to find shooters on the perimeter or bigs in the paint. Flashes of manipulation with his handle and passing angles were particularly encouraging, he does more than just hunt for his shot.
This is what makes Miller such an intriguing proposition. He is one of the best shooters in the country that safely cleared the requirement for rim pressure needed to provide genuine impact. On a more effectively spaced court, the vision of Miller as an off-ball scorer that can operate as a secondary initiator, breaking down the defense and finding open shooters, is both a realistic and tantalizing projection.
Limiting Factors: Two-Point Scoring and Off-Ball Defense
Space Creation, Finishing, Quickness
Creating offense is the name of the game for any potential star, and while Brandon Miller is not the quickest or shiftiest handler, he does a great job using misdirection and irregular stride patterns to beat his man and combat rim protector in the paint. His growth in this area was encouraging throughout the season, but it is worth noting Miller does not have the typical tools of your “star wing scorer”, relying more on subtle hesitation and craft.
The actual results were mixed, with flashes of intriguing craft and moments of real worry. Ultimately, Brandon Miller shot 33/84 (39.3%) at the rim in the halfcourt this past season, a number that paints the picture of a disadvantaged rim threat. Beyond even finishing, getting to the rim is work, and isn’t something that works out every drive.
For skill-oriented initiators, having a reliable and creative mid-range game is an invaluable tool to help make up for a lack of undeniable rim pressure. Miller has a beautiful turnaround jumper he often resorts to off a broken drive, but there was little variety (or success) this year beyond that.
The effectiveness of that shot is noteworthy, as is what makes it an effective option. The natural fade of a turnaround in the lane gives Miller a little extra space and a slightly elevated release point on his jumper.
Despite his height and shooting talent, Miller shot 7/24 (29.2%) on pull-up twos in the halfcourt last season. His release point and lack of space creation tools (upper body strength or lateral quickness) narrowed his avenues for potential success within the arc.
Midrange jumpers have to be easy for teams to let you shoot them, and that may prove to be a steep hill to climb. The lack of volume is surely a reflection of Alabama’s offensive scheme limiting mid-range looks, an easily dismissed red flag. The efficiency, namely the lack of comfort Miller showed operating within the confines of the arc as a shooter, is more noteworthy.
Miller shot a higher percentage (32.9%) on dribble jumpers from three than he did from the mid-range, and that further clarifies the issue at hand. Beyond the arc defenders play further off, allowing more room for Miller to get his shot off. Within the confines of the arc that space shrinks, and when that happened Miller did not have the tools to create the space himself.
On the defensive end there feels like little to note. Miller is excellent at high-pointing rebounds in traffic and had a few highlight-reel worthy chase down blocks in transition, but beyond that the cupboard is relatively bare. He uses his length well in isolation and containing drives, but really struggles to navigate screens and move his feet with quicker guards.
The off-ball defense is what stuck out to me as the largest pain point. Miller was good at anticipating rotations as a weak-side rim protector but the rotations themselves were often meandering in nature, a gradual shift of position rather than a succinct rotation.
He doesn’t have the quick twitch athleticism to dig and recover out to shooters in an effective manner and is often left shuffling in no-man’s land closing out to shooters. Miller was often given the least threatening defensive assignment, making these struggles within his role more concerning.
Without an easily translatable defensive impact, it is the magnitude of Miller’s offensive success that will carry his value. A high-tempo, five-out offense that prioritizes threes and rim attempts could help many of these issues, but there is a more specific context needed to maximize Miller’s offensive talent than your typical star wing creator. Even in an ideal team context, it will take intentional creativity to make things come together. The inherent conflict of a uniquely skilled prospect.
Jett Howard
Archetype: Floor Spacer
Movement Shooter, Off-Ball Movement, Pull-Up Shooter
The case for Jett Howard as a potential lottery pick is an easy one, and not dissimilar to Brandon Miller. There are not very many players listed at 6’8” that can get up threes on volume like Jett this past season.
I have been told using 13 in a bart query is malpractice, but you can’t argue with the results. Freshman wings do not shoot jumpers at this kind of volume with this kind of success. There are certainly some areas for concern, even on the offensive end, but Howard’s projection as a floor spacer is about as clean as they come.
The first point I want to hit on here is the volume, not simply the number but rather how that number came to be. Jett was used at Michigan in a variety of different sets, but was most commonly found sprinting around the perimeter like a stretched out version of JJ Redick.
Howard thrived as a tough shot-maker, though more in the complementary scoring sense than an on-ball one. In a three-point oriented league, the ability to actually get up shots is an incredibly difficult and invaluable skill. Howard’s combination of shift, off balance shotmaking and quick release are the makings of a floor spacer that works in nearly any environment.
Beyond his off-ball excellence, Howard is a talented shooter off the bounce with the ability to adjust his release angles to account for contests. Close out hard? Howard has no problem relocating with the ball in his hands to get a cleaner look.
His mechanics off the bounce are clean and the results show it. My thoughts on Howard always return to the same place: teenagers this size should not be this comfortable shooting the ball. This is not normal, but what exactly does that mean?
Prototype: Jumbo Scoring Guard
Pull-Up Shooter, Closeout Attacker, Ball Handling, Off-Ball Movement
The ultimate vision for Jett involves finding each and every way possible to weaponize his shot. At Michigan he was able to showcase some of that versatility, but it often felt like food was left on the table. With a usage rate of only 21.8, Jett Howard may be the first coach’s kid ever to not get enough on-ball reps.
With his height and fluidity getting into his shot off a live dribble, Howard was an incredibly effective pull-up scorer on volume that feels entirely too low. That same jumper malleability, contorting his shot to match the defender’s contest, is even more valuable within the arc. When the space shrinks up, Howard has the coordinated creativity to still get off a quality look.
Actually making shots is the biggest hurdle for young shotmakers, yet Howard proved to exceed expectations in nearly every facet. Synergy has a new metric this year Synergy Shot Making (SSM) that tracks how a player shoots compared to the expected value of each shot.
For any one-season statistical sample, it is important to remember nearly every data point you use is subject to the biases of small sample size, particularly with shooting numbers.
With that said, I would like to compare the samples of Jett Howard and Brandon Miller in different types of shot types and settings.
Jett’s “quite good” numbers off the catch pale in comparison to Miller’s astronomical season, but off the bounce was a different story.
Despite his billing and overall statistical profile resembling that of an off-ball shooting specialist, Howard’s game off the bounce was efficient in just about every playtype or spot on the court you could imagine.
As I talked about with Miller, having a reliable midrange game to fall back on when a drive dies on the vine is incredibly useful, and Jett’s projection there is more encouraging than one would think. Miller is bound to improve here with some added repetition and strength, but at nearly an entire calendar year younger, so should Howard. While his actual volume of rim pressure was significantly lower than Miller, so was his opportunity. What wasn’t lower? His efficiency as a shotmaker.
Howard is an A-1 shotmaking prospect at 6’8” that, at times, seems to be hiding in plain sight. Shooters at this size don’t come around often, and when they do they are almost always a seasoned upperclassman gradually increasing their volume. As a teenager, Howard is already there. Outlier talents tend to produce outlier results.
If that happens? Howard has the tools as a passer to truly capitalize on elite shotmaking. He had a solid assist rate this year for an off ball wing of 12.9, but the flashes were incredibly enticing. As a reactive passer with a solid awareness of his surroundings Howard should thrive as a connector early in his career. If the self-creation is able to develop as he grows into his frame, Jett has the height and awareness to capitalize on it. .
Limiting Factors: Rim Pressure and Defense
Strength, Explosiveness, Defensive Activity
On the concerns side, you have to start with the physicality. Howard was an all-time poor rebounder for his height and that showed on tape. He was habitually hesitant to get into the mix of bigger bodies in the paint, even with a height advantage.
This is where his projection as a more guard-oriented wing than forward applies. Howard lacks much of the skills required to play the three or the four, from the above mentioned rebounding or a relative lack of weakside rim protection.
As a guard, Jett did well chasing shooters around screens on the perimeter and using his size to recover once beat. He doesn’t have the quickest feet in the world and I certainly wouldn’t want to deploy him at the point of attack, but his lack of interior value defensively feels, to an extent, insurmountable. Finding a less harmful alternative may be a better option than trying to force a square peg through a round hole.
Jett moves his feet well on the perimeter, but I would like to see him use his length more effectively. He isn’t particularly slow laterally, but often looks like it by taking steps too small to keep up with his opponent.
As a help defender his digs were rarely impactful, but his timing was solid. He isn’t incapable of recovering to shooters, and even flashed moments of good ground coverage, but is generally unpolished in that regard. Jett was a below average defender this past year, but with added weight and refinement a passable one feels within reach. A low but meaningful bar.
This lack of strength and explosive athleticism shows itself on the offensive end as well. Jett is methodical with the ball in his hands, similar to Miller, but generates significantly less downhill pressure on his drives. He struggles to handle bumps and turn the corner on defenders in an effective way, making him even more reliant on mid-range jumpers.
It is worth noting Jett was sidelined this offseason due to sprains in both ankles he suffered during the season. That is a major hamper on one’s lower-body athleticism, and a significant reason for hope going forward. Getting healthy certainly won’t turn Jett into a rim-pressure wing, but it should help lessen the gap he needs to make up in order to operate as a functional scorer with the ball in his hands.
My ultimate question regarding Jett is just how negative is his lack of rim pressure? His ability to create quality looks at the rim on his own was resoundingly poor, even when accounting for the injuries he was playing through. Howard was more efficient shooting off the dribble than either he or Miller were laying the ball up this past year.
How good does his mid-range game need to be to create gravity resembling rim pressure, and how can he use that to manufacture more attempts at the rim? Howard is not an unskilled finisher, but simply did not have the physical tools to get there this year. That isn’t going to get easier against bigger and stronger athletes, and his success will almost assuredly originate in skill and manipulation rather than force.
Outliers and Outcomes
In the grand scheme of things, Howard will need to add a significant amount of size and strength to have anything resembling an on-ball role. That is far from an impossible task, it is exceedingly normal for 6’8” teenagers to gain weight as they enter their twenties, but it will need to be significant. Howard and Miller will have a similar hill to climb in that respect, though Miller is much more comfortable handling physicality at this current stage.
That lack of physicality in comparison is reflected across the court from handling bumps to rebounding to screen setting. Miller may be the thinner build, but he is the more physical prospect, and that is what makes him a significantly safer bet.
The two are more similar than given credit, like opposite sides of the same coin. Miller’s advantage in physicality and base-level shooting create a much safer floor for his NBA value, but the hill from good to great is visibly steep.
Jett on the other hand has no such floor, where his lack of strength and explosiveness leave him a man without a country defensively. That possibility is much more realistic than with Miller, but if Jett is able to get to the level of good, you might be surprised by how quickly he becomes great.
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