There are many things that could happen with this pick on draft day, but in all likelihood, the Golden State Warriors will be adding another rookie to the roster with the 19th pick today.
Whether or not I agree with that decision is another question entirely. What is important to me is that Golden State uses this pick to maximize the current roster, whether that means packaging it in a trade or taking a player they can project a role for. Evaluating these draft options goes beyond just the talent of the player. Some players I would love at 19 in a vacuum would be bad fits for the roster or the timeline, whereas others who have later first-round or early second-round must be considered at 19 because of polish and need.
We’ll go through this draft at every position, seeing who in range makes sense and who Golden State should avoid. Most importantly, we will explore the why. I will also add a prospect at each position that would be a home run if they slide to 19, and some second-round options if the Warriors explore a drastic trade back or buy their way into the second round. I’m not going to cover any trade-up options here: if you watched last year and thought this team could use another high-stakes 19-year-old, I cannot help you.
Guard
Stop The Fall: Cason Wallace, Kentucky and Nick Smith Jr., Arkansas
I’m not going to say anything about these two prospects that will hold a candle to what Tyler Wilson of this very same site wrote on the two early this week, so if you want to learn more about the two, this is prerequisite reading.
If the Warriors find themselves anywhere close to drafting either of these two, they will be extremely lucky. Especially if Cason Wallace is the pick. Despite being a one-and-done, he’s incredibly polished on both ends of the floor. Doing so as a combo guard is very impressive. He can function on and off the ball offensively, showing the skills to be a reliable playmaker with the athleticism and shooting potential to be a weapon in the motion offense.
The defense speaks for itself: he has the athleticism, motor, and production to back up the film. His 3.8 dBPM ranked fifth amongst all freshmen regardless of position last season, and 3 of the 4 above him are first-round caliber bigs. Pairing that sort of defensive impact with an offensive game that lacks any glaring weakness screams immediate contributor.
Nick Smith Jr. isn’t as much of a strong bet on the defensive end as Cason, but the offensive upside is tantalizing. A lights-out shooter with deep range in high school and the EYBL circuit, nagging knee and wrist injuries prevented him from showing his full scoring and playmaking prowess at Arkansas. He’s electric off the dribble when healthy, and shows the kind of hustle necessary to add some defensive impact in the long term. I wouldn’t be sprinting to the podium as I would be for Cason, but a brisk jog would do just fine.
Pass: Kobe Bufkin, Michigan
A young returning sophomore, Bufkin is flying up draft boards after his athletic testing matched the run he went on late in the season. It’s the perfect storm for an eyebrow-raising draft day rise. But even if he were available at 19, I don’t think Bufkin fits this Warriors roster as well as the previous guards.
He doesn’t have the bankable defense or consistent on-ball playmaking that Cason Wallace brings to the table, and I don’t think he brings the same kind of offensive upside you get from Nick Smith Jr. In theory, he fits as a combo guard off the bench, but I’m not sure if there is a bankable skill that will keep him in Steve Kerr’s lineup. Let a team with a longer leash and lower expectations figure out his game.
Draft: Keyonte George, Baylor
If Golden State stands to lose Donte DiVincenzo in free agency, Keyonte George would make for an excellent and more controllable replacement.
Despite pedestrian shooting numbers on the surface, George should be a great (if not elite) shooter off the dribble and catch at the next level. He oozes natural tough, and can easily shoot it out to 28-29 feet at all kinds of funky angles. Look no further than this:
He also has a penchant for creating long twos in isolation, a strong sign of his overall creation upside. He has the juice to attack closeouts to start and makes good passing decisions to boot, profiling as a strong secondary creating/shooting guard next to Jordan Poole off the bench. Though George is not the most technically sound in terms of on and off ball defense, he has an in-your-face demeanor and hustle that keeps his opponents unsettled. Another effort guy to bother tough bench matchups and take things off Poole’s defensive plate would be a huge add.
Draft: Jalen Hood-Schifino, Indiana
This might be my favorite fit for the Warriors at any position.
Hood-Schifino plays with a game well beyond his years. A methodical ballhandler and incredible passer, he’s a strong defender on the ball and from a team perspective. Shooting was a major concern going into his freshman season, but he did a lot to quell those concerns with a 38% mark on above-the-break threes, the closest equivalent to NBA range. If the shooting is real, he becomes a lot harder to leave open, opening up his superb downhill game.
JHS would be able to carve out a fine role even if the shooting doesn’t climb to average or above average. His ability to make plays at his size is uncanny, and he makes up for the lack of explosion on his drives with plenty of dribble craft and finishing skill. He’s got a pretty smooth pull-up jumper at 6’6″, and fits the profile of a secondary creating combo guard with real point guard upside. This kind of polished two-way guard game in a young guard is rare, and Golden State should jump on the opportunity to pair him with Jordan Poole.
Second-Round Buy: Marcus Sasser, Houston
If Golden State addresses another position at 19 or trades out of the pick entirely, they should heavily consider buying into the top of the 2nd round for Marcus Sasser.
A four-year player at Houston, Sasser brings production, experience, and a winning pedigree to whichever team is lucky enough to have him. The ability to defend all manners of guard, whether they are quick, strong, or just blazing fast, is a huge asset. Just enjoy this minute plus of Sassy (lmk lmk) getting after it on defense:
Not only is the defense very strong and highly projectable, but there is more meat on the bone offensively than most would think. The outside shooting by itself would give him offensive utility, but Sasser has shown he can create for himself and looks comfortable doing it. Per Barttorvik, Sasser hit 40% of his long twos with 77.5% coming from self-created situations. This is a huge sign for his isolation and second-side potential, and a big add for a team desperate for secondary and tertiary creation. He also made a solid 64% of his shots at the rim with 81.5% (!!!) unassisted. Sasser LOVES getting to his step-back jumper, especially when attacking closeouts, and it is a thing of beauty.
A great fit next to Jordan Poole, another hard-nosed perimeter defender, and a strong shooter with creation juice. Oh, and he’s not a teenager. Sign me up.
Second-Round Buy: Ricky Council IV, Arkansas
If I write anything about Ricky Council IV without including his sickening dunk reel, what is the point?
Council has a case for the best athlete in the class not named Thompson, Henderson, or Wembanyama. Not only is he explosive, a ridiculous leaper, and wildly strong for a guard, he has the functional athleticism that I tend to fall for. Council IV is ambidextrous, and leverages this hand-eye talent into some really strong handle and passing flashes:
The shooting is a major question mark: he has a quick motion and solid form, but a very low release point that I don’t think will translate at the next level unless he can raise it to better counter closeouts. Even if the shooting is a concern, the sheer dominance in transition and off the drive will bring plenty of offensive value. He has shown the chops to cut and move as needed, and could fill a super-GP2 role for the Dubs with some off-the-dribble juice as a bonus.
I’m also in love with the defense. Council IV has quick footwork, moves his hips well, and shows a strong blend of aggression and technical soundness that matches the athletic tools.
I’m also just pro-Hog. Any player Eric Musselman touches, the Warriors should try to get their hands on. And he’s certainly not the last Arkansas player we will be discussing.
Guard Wrap-Up
The strongest and deepest position in the draft, the Warriors should have several options on the board if they decide to go guard, or try to buy in later. There are several players I had to leave out for the sake of brevity as well. It feels likely Jordan Poole will have a new bench running mate in the backcourt after today.
Wing
Stop The Fall: Leonard Miller, G-League Ignite
Once again, I have nothing to say beyond what the brilliant people of our Swish Theory staff have already said. You need to read this debut article by our own Avinash Chauhan.
Are you done? Good. If you’re lying, think about what you have done before we move on.
Miller is a bit of a double-down on the Jonathan Kuminga experiment: a recent starter by basketball standards, Miller jumped from obscurity into dominating one of the best leagues in the world. The frame and athleticism are crazy, and even though the shot is a major problem area, Miller can drive and slash as good as any nearly 7-foot wing. I think this is the most project like player I would want Golden State taking. The physical tools and rim pressure potential are just too good to pass up. Even if it creates some early headaches, this could be the backup wing solution for years to come. No matter where Miller goes tonight, it will be too low. Find a way to get this man to the Bay.
Draft: Brice Sensabaugh, Ohio State
On a different end of the spectrum for wings is Brice Sensabaugh. He’s like Ball Don’t Stop met with a gamma radiation incident and grew legs, started to walk, and began getting some damn buckets.
Deep shooting range, touch, an ability to hit shots off bizarre footwork patterns, and a damn good handle. At 6’6″, Brice is a ready-made scoring forward for the NBA, and could contribute at all three levels. The scoring prowess by itself is enough to get him a rotation spot on a Warriors team that, as we have mentioned, is starved for self-creation at all positions.
Outside of pure buckets, Sensabaugh put up solid rebounding numbers, which helps bring up a defensive game that is lacking in relation to his wing contemporaries in this class. He’s smart, physically coordinated, and has good size. It’s not out of the realm of possibility that Brice becomes a passable wing defender and can bring help from a team perspective.
Sensabaugh would be an instant shot of life for the bench offense, taking some burden off Jordan Poole and giving them a potentially elite catch-and-shoot option/closeout attacker. The need is there for the Warriors, and Sensabaugh can slide right in at the 3.
Pass: Jett Howard, Michigan
This is another case of “love the prospect, hate the fit”. Howard came in as a highly touted prospect to Michigan, but his one-and-done season was arguably a disappointment. The size is great and the shooting/creating potential is evident, but there are lots of other concerns that override that potential for me.
Don’t get me wrong: the shooting range and handle are very real, and he has shown some really strong passing chops. You can see it jump off the screen every time Howard plays.
The main concern for me is that this is the exact player Steve Kerr is not inclined to play. Just look at Patrick Baldwin Jr., who had an absolute strap and could contribute on the glass, and found himself at the end of the bench the whole season. Yes, Howard has far more on-ball offensive potential, but he’s as close to a zero on the glass as you can be for a 6’8″ combo forward. He’s also not an event creator defensively, making it an even tougher proposition that he would get instant playing time.
Furthermore, I feel that Howard’s offensive game is too perimeter-reliant. He wasn’t good at using his handle and frame to create trips to the line, giving him a low floor for each game offensively. If the shot isn’t falling, the playmaking suffers, and all the warts really start to show. If this wasn’t a team trying to compete for a fifth championship, I’d be more in on Howard as a fit, but he is just as likely to sink a roster spot for the first couple of seasons as he is to contribute to the rotation. That’s not a risk Golden State can take right now.
Draft: Kris Murray, Iowa
Yes. That is my answer to Kris Murray, Golden State Warrior.
Though not as polished as his brother Keegan, who had an outstanding rookie season in Sacramento, Kris brings ready-made shooting, touch, and knowledge of his own game. Not the biggest or most athletic, I’m always impressed with his awareness of his own skillset and abilities. You rarely see Kris attempt a play he cannot finish; he knows his limitations, and is excellent as working within those confines. More of a functional athlete than an explosive one, Kris is still capable of rocking the rim when he gets going.
What I appreciate the most about his game is the defense. He’s incredible at moving his feet, keeping the right arms up, staying vertical when rotating, and picking out the right spots to move and use his frame. This clip right here is the basic sell on his defense: responsibility, activity, and staying out of trouble spots:
Murray could be a solid weak-side rotator who poses a challenge when switched out on the perimeter with his footwork skill. He’s certainly not going to be the defender that breaks the defense, and that is a very valuable trait considering the defensively sound bigs and wings the team currently possesses. Of all prospects in this class (save one we have yet to discuss), he’s the best bet to crack Steve Kerr’s rotation and contribute immediately.
Pass: Maxwell Lewis, Pepperdine
In a similar vein to Jett Howard, there are just too many short and long-term concerns to justify the Warriors taking on a project like Maxwell Lewis. He’s a great prospect in his own right, there is no doubt about that. But considering the state of the roster, it’s just a poor fit for both sides.
Lewis has tons of offensive potential as a movement shooter with good on-ball skills, and has shown some passing/handle flashes to boot. He could stand to add some weight, but the 6’7″ lengthy frame would be ideal at the 3 spot. Unfortunately, there are serious athletic concerns that give me pause about the risk-reward. The foot speed and technical skills on the defensive end are lacking, and he’s not great at flipping his hips in quick succession to deal with side-to-side dribbles. Footwork was the calling card for Moses Moody two drafts ago as a way to make up for athletic limitations, and his defense has hardly panned out to date. I’m even more doubtful of Lewis’ impact on that end.
Even if he finds a niche taking on guard assignments defensively, it’s a tough proposition to get him in the lineup. There’s no ignoring the talent and potential, but how long he takes to get there should have the Warriors looking elsewhere.
Second-Round Buy: Julian Strawther, Gonzaga
A junior coming out of Gonzaga, I have been dreaming about Strawther in a Warriors jersey since his freshman year in Spokane.
At 6’7″, Strawther is one of the more prolific shooters in the entire draft. He built on a strong first two seasons of catch-and-shoot ball with an elite season from deep, hitting 40.5% of his 195 attempts from deep. Just look at the above-the-break marks for this season and you can see elite NBA shooting potential:
His 3-point and free throw marks have gone up in all three years, and with his penchant for getting to the line when attacking closeouts, the scoring floor is really strong for an off-ball wing. It helps that he has limitless confidence and ice in his veins that would put D’Angelo Russell to shame.
He’s no playmaker or major rim threat, but plays a perfect shooting wing role. On the defensive end, there is work to do. When going up against NBA-level talent, he looks well behind the curve. This game against Pepperdine (and Maxwell Lewis) brought serious concerns to light:
Strawther has made up for this lack of defensive prowess in recent years with strong defensive rebound numbers for a perimeter guy, and I think he has the overall feel to be a decent rotational defender. Whether or not he can get stops on the perimeter is a huge question, but when you’re going for second-round guys, you have to take the good with the bad.
And my God is there some good in that strap on his shoulder.
Second-Round Buy: Jordan Walsh, Arkansas
The polar opposite of Julian Strawther in almost every sense, Walsh screams late-second defensive steal.
Yet another Razorback on this list, you can make a real argument that Walsh is the most well-rounded wing defender of the entire class. Physical tools, foot/hip speed, technically sound, strong in rotation and communication, he truly has it all.
It seems likely that Jonathan Kuminga will be traded elsewhere over role concerns, leaving a defensive hole in the bench wing group. Walsh can fill that and more. If Golden State can add more guard creation to take things off Jordan Poole’s plate, Walsh slots right in as the defensive specialist off the bench to put the clamps on all guard and wing matchups.
Nobody is going to confuse him for a 3-and-D guy anytime soon: there are very few indicators that he can develop a strong jumper at the next level. The pull-up twos can be rough and he’s a middling free throw shooter in addition to the 27.8% mark from deep. But he oozes athletic potential, and even a low-30s three point mark could open up the lane on closeouts, where he gets to flash his powerful strides and ridiculous wingspan.
It’s not the biggest upside play you’ll find in this draft, but you would be hard-pressed to find a 20-year-old that Steve Kerr would be more willing to play. A Gary Payton II/Jordan Walsh bench unit would be nails against opposing bench scorers.
Wing Wrap-Up
The talent in this group will really dry up by the time the Warriors are on the clock, but there is plenty to look at later in the draft. I debated heavily over adding Jaylen Clark, Amari Bailey, Sidy Cissoko, and Andre Jackson Jr. to the list, which speaks to the depth of wings once you get past the lottery. There will be options aplenty if Mike Dunleavy is looking for him, but there are certainly some land-mine projects they have to avoid stepping on.
Big
Stop The Fall: Dereck Lively II, Duke
Close your eyes and picture the perfect Warriors starting center. Don’t get caught daydreaming about Kevon Looney (which I am guilty of): think about the ideal frame, skillset, and strengths to fit their mold. What you are picturing is exactly what Dereck Lively II brings to the table.
Leading the country in defensive BPM last season, Lively II is one of the best shot-blocking prospects in recent memory. He erased a whopping 12.8% of shots when he was on the floor, placing him third in the country; the entire rest of the top five is comprised of seniors, while Lively II is a true freshman. Dereck is also just a silly vertical threat on offense, with a massive catch radius for lobs and tips that makes him a menace in the restricted area.
There is also some reason to think his natural touch will expand over time. A 3/21 mark on long twos and threes doesn’t scream future floor spacer, but he could gradually turn into a midrange threat that can hit a corner three every once in a while. Even if his offensive game is limited to within 3-5 feet of the basket, he’s the perfect dunker spot threat for this offense. If the screening develops, he’s damn good on the roll. He posted an 86% finishing mark on the roll with Duke, and though the volume isn’t there he can fill his offensive role to a T in Steve Kerr’s offense.
Controlling the glass and dominating the paint on both ends, Lively II could walk in and be a plus backup to Kevon Looney, and a more than capable starter if the team needs an extra vertical threat. This would be a home run in terms of talent, need, and fit for both team and player. I need it.
Draft: James Nnaji, Barcelona
There is a real dearth of bigs in the first round after Wembanyama and Lively II go off the board, but talent is out there. Though less polished than Lively II, James Nnaji fits in Golden State for all the same reasons.
He’s a prolific shot blocker, smart paint defender, and serious vertical threat around the cup. Being that good in Europe as an 18 year old bodes very well for his future, as the offensive environment is much more similar to NBA pace and spacing compared to the NCAA.
There is also a clear upside here for Golden State to tap into. He’s had flashes with the ball in his hands, and has shown the atlheticism and footwork necessary to guard out to the perimeter on pick-and-roll. Even if he’s mostly a drop big in this system, the ability to switch up coverages and keep the offense on their toes will be a major asset if it develops. He’ll need to rebound at a higher level than previously shown to make a true impact, but Nnaji could hold down a rotational center spot before his rookie contract is up if he can stay healthy.
Second-Round Buy: Trayce Jackson-Davis, Indiana
You want an instant rotation big in this draft? Look no further than TJD.
If he somehow manages to make it past the Nuggets and their bevy of picks (he is reportedly a main target for Denver), Golden State needs to blow up the phones trying to buy a pick. TJD is smart, experienced, athletic, and immensely talented on offense. He will be a positive force on the glass at both ends, more than holds his own with paint defense, and would be a dribble handoff maestro in this offense. A true center who can put the ball on the deck and make extra passes is something they have not had in this Warriors era, and it would be a match made in heaven on the offensive side of the ball.
Big Wrap-Up
The bigs are certainly shallower in this class, but Golden State could still find themselves with a ready-made contributor if they play their cards right. There are a couple of home runs here in my eyes, and though unlikely, Dereck Lively II might be the best fit for them in the entire draft. Keep an eye on a trade up to snag him.
Putting a Bow On Things
You probably saw several themes emerging in this article: target potential contributors, avoid long-term projects, but don’t be afraid to capitalize on massive upside if it falls right in your lap. It seems clear after the Chris Paul trade that Golden State will hang onto this pick and look to add reliable depth, but you never know with this front office. A few years down the line, this could be a pick that makes or breaks the end of this championship window. No pressure.
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