The Fallacy: Lead Guards Are the Same as They’ve Always Been
LeBron James, Kevin Durant, Kawhi Leonard, Giannis Antetokounmpo. Those four players hold 9 of the last 11 Finals MVP trophies. The NBA is a league dominated by large ball handlers, with the best leading their team to NBA finals infamy season after season.
Few people will argue that the best players in the NBA are largely forward-sized (or larger), with Steph Curry as the only real challenger to that throne for nearly twenty years. What defines a successful NBA guard has changed over that time, but the lens with which we evaluate the position has not evolved along with it.
The search for a modern lead guard has become more and more difficult as time has progressed. In a world where the best players on championship teams are over the height of 6’6”, what does it mean to be a “lead guard” when you aren’t the driving force for your team?
Let’s take a look at the conference finals of the last five years and what kinds of guards thrived in those environments.
In the East you have Jrue Holiday, Marcus Smart (Derrick White?), Kyle Lowry (Miami and Toronto versions) and Trae Young.
In the West there is Jamal Murray, Austin Reaves, Steph Curry, Jalen Brunson, Chris Paul, Patrick Beverly, Alex Caruso and Damian Lillard.
There is a general feeling that a point guard is meant to be this ball-in-hand maestro, pressuring the rim while operating the offense like a puppeteer, but that is so rarely the case when the calendar turns to June. What are the skills most consistent with those above groupings? Any of versatility (in both offensive role and defensive assignment), overwhelming shooting gravity, and/or pick and roll excellence. No-look skip passes and mid-air acrobatics make for an incredible highlight tape, but in the last half decade of basketball has rarely been a driving force in championship success.
This lead guard mentality often seeps into the evaluation of draft prospects, docking players for not living up to a flawed standard. In the 2023 NBA draft there is a glut of guard prospects in the heart of the first round from Anthony Black to Kobe Bukin and Jalen Hood-Schifino, but there are two that stand out in the afterglow of playoff basketball.
Cason Wallace and Nick Smith Jr are two versions of the modern point guard, standing on the backs of excellence and versatility. In a crowded class, what makes these two prospects more suited for playoff basketball? The times have changed.
The Prospect: Cason Wallace
Cason Wallace is the basketball personification of persistent excellence. Few teenagers have played a full season of college basketball while making as few mistakes as Cason did this past season. On the offensive end, Wallace toggled between an on-ball and off-ball role in a crowded backcourt, but seemingly always made the right decision.
Wallace is the rare kind of prospect who never takes anything away from your team. He doesn’t make unforced errors or sloppy turnovers, he executes his scheme and chips away at you bit by bit. That kind of controlled dominance is something worth valuing in translation to a role in the NBA, but also from a developmental perspective.
Succeeding in your role as a young player in the league is the fast track to increased opportunity. So few rookies enter the league as manageable defensive players, and those that are that have even an inkling of offensive skill are immediately thrown into the flames
That trial by fire will be Wallace’s rookie season, and few prospects have been as prepared. He will be on an NBA floor in October, a success for any NBA draft pick, but it is his potential impact in Junes to come that makes Cason Wallace an ideal modern point guard.
The Pitch: Floor General and Defensive Mastermind
The biggest knock against Cason is that he doesn’t quite have the juice you’re looking for out of a lead guard. In a wide-angle view, that is a stance I am sympathetic to. Wallace lacks your traditional “workout moves” you see out of lead ball handlers, rarely resulting in flashy combos or deft manipulation, winning his battles in a much more brutish and physical manner.
That doesn’t lead to your typical draft prospect mixtape for a point guard, but the results themselves were statistically astounding. Wallace is efficient from just about everywhere on the floor. At the rim, Wallace shot an astounding 66%, far and away the highest mark in the class amongst guards. His finishing quality comes from a combination of strength, touch and crafty finishing angles. He is not the most explosive guard with the ball in his hands, but his skill and athleticism more than compensates.
Beyond his finishing at the rim, Wallace shot a scalding 44.8% on dribble jumpers in the midrange. Despite his relatively low usage rate of 20.3, Wallace had an impressive volume of two-point self creation. He was never overwhelming, but was incredibly efficient in the types of shots NBA offenses will ask him to take.
Wallace is best operating out of a pick and roll, allowing him to read the defense within a familiar construct and in turn make quality decisions. He is not the flashiest passer, but he makes the reads required of him in lay downs, pocket passes, or kickouts. He is not someone to create offense out of thin air, but give him a closeout or a ball screen and now you’re cooking with gas.
Cason was efficient from everywhere on the floor this past season, particularly within the arc. Typically when you are really good at scoring in certain areas, teams will lean on that until you become less efficient. That never happened at Kentucky, the sky is blue and water is wet. I am not saying Cason Wallace is Jamal Murray or Devin Booker, but the idea he is incapable of shouldering a larger scoring load on offense does not track.
There isn’t anything Cason should be asked to do at the next level that he won’t thrive at from day one. That immediate translatability is incredibly important. Wallace will have the opportunity for on court reps the moment he steps onto an NBA court, in large part because of his defensive impact.
Wallace is one of the most advanced defensive guards at his age in modern history. A team-defense wizard, he is always in the right place at the right time in help or jumping passing lanes. He is an effective defender in isolation and uses his strength well, but can struggle to navigate ball screens with a bulkier frame. He is still an effective defender on-ball and provides versatility there, but it is the off-ball defense that pays the bills.
The best defenders anticipate actions and are already there seemingly before it even happens. It’s a catalyst for good defense, plugging holes before they have time to let in water. You know the famous Derek Jeter play where he just appears behind home plate to complete an entirely insane series-saving play? That’s Cason Wallace.
The Fit: Steady Hand of the King to a Score First Wing
Teams built around a score-first forward like Giannis, Jayson Tatum or Kawhi Leonard are the ideal fit for a guard like Cason, and it is no coincidence they have found success next to guards with a similar value proposition in Jrue Holiday, Marcus Smart and Patrick Beverly.
No matter how much teams stress offensive flow and inclusion, in playoff hoops the ball finds your star, and your offense is defined by what they do with it. They aren’t creating enormous advantages for others, so the necessary threshold for creation is higher for their teammates. You need to do something when the ball finds you and the defense has a short closeout, but the returns on self creation are diminishing.
The best self creator on the team is already installed, and only one person can create at a time. Boston is not taking the ball out of Jayson Tatum’s hands for a Marcus Smart iso (on purpose). Thriving in the other areas of the game is where you begin to see exponential impact, and that is the case for Cason. I am more optimistic than some regarding his ultimate upside as a scorer, but genuinely I am not sure how much it matters.
Cason Wallace will be thriving in playoff rotations for the next decade because of his defense and steady-handed efficiency. Cason Wallace’s game is built for modern playoff basketball. Prospects with that certainty of two way competence do not come around often. For a point guard on a wing-led team, the combination of supreme defensive impact and scalable, diverse offense is a proven recipe for success. Beyond immediate translatability the combination of early-career opportunity, defensive processing and athleticism are a proven recipe for outlier development.
The Prospect: Nick Smith Jr
Nick Smith Jr is a fixer-upper fan’s dream. A top-five recruit entering college many expected to be in contention for a top-three pick, the flashes of electric athleticism, limitless shooting and instinctual passing seemed to be the foundation of a creator.
A preseason wrist injury requiring surgery and an in-season knee injury all but sapped any hope of Smith building on his positive momentum entering the year, and as a result his potential draft position has slid precipitously.
This is a phenomenon that irks me to my core. Nick Smith Jr is not a meaningfully different prospect than he was a year ago. His foundation of quick-twitch athleticism, shot versatility and budding self creation remain an ever-present part of his appeal as a prospect and his freshman season showed flashes of it all.
Any player that misses training camp, the beginning of the season, and is then sidelined for two months with a (minor) knee injury is going to struggle to integrate themselves into a system, particularly one as spacing deprived as Arkansas this past season.
It is easy to look at the macro-level statistical output and lower NSJ down your board accordingly, but that statistical sample is far too flawed to take at face value.
The Pitch: On- and Off-Ball Creation
The first thing you have to start with when discussing Nick’s freshman season is the shot. The numbers from an efficiency perspective were incredibly poor, especially for a prospect billed to be an excellent shooter. The context of his injuries, wrist and knee, are important in understanding that sample.
Could it be possible that the only real difference in his success as a shooter between this year and last is his health, and comfort getting into his shot? In my eyes, that feels more likely the more I watch. Smith wasn’t just a good shooter in high school, his touch was outlandish and his range was already Lillard-esque. Shot creators take a long time to develop into efficient scorers, so it is no shock an injury-riddled season led to inefficiency. With that said, NSJ’s flashes as an initiator, using his gravity and shot versatility to create offense, were as scalding as ever.
Learning to harness your gravity is what catalyzes the offensive impact of guard creators like Nick, but it is something that only comes with time. It takes a high level of feel and creative boldness to truly maximize that kind of offensive weapon as an off-ball mover and freestyle passer.
Nick can make reads in the pick and roll in the half court that lead well to future projection as a passer and creator for others, but it is his excellence within the confines of chaos that truly intrigues me. When things go awry, the ball seems to always find its way to Nick, and in turn the spectacular follows.
The free flowing nature of modern basketball is made for a freestyle artist like Nick Smith Jr, and he will thrive in the chaos of transition as soon as he enters the league. That open court creativity fuels the dream of potential half-court creation.
This past season Smith settled a lot in the half court, too often chucking up a difficult floater early into a drive. From a sheer volume perspective, NSJ trailed only Brice Sensabaugh and Jalen Hood-Schifino in per70 mid-range scoring, the only issue being his drastically lower efficiency.
Unlike Brice and JHS, who often struggle to create initial advantages yet find a way to score, Smith is a shifty handler with real burst. His handle is still rudimentary at times (see: injury, wrist) but his comfortability with unorthodox movement styles and jitter-bug athleticism make for an encouraging creator bet as he grows into his frame.
That last part is the key, and ties directly into his overall efficiency woes. Smith is able to create initial advantages, but often is too weak in his handle or frame to maintain them, much less finish through rim protection waiting in the paint.
The Fit: Score First Robin to a Jumbo Playmaker Batman
You don’t have to look far to find the ideal test case for this fit, with the NBA Champion Denver Nuggets showing just how effective it can be. The NBA is dominated by larger playmakers, and it makes sense: the taller you are, the more passing windows you have at your disposal. Be it Nikola Jokic, LeBron James, Luka Doncic or more unproven options like LaMelo Ball, Josh Giddey and Amen Thompson, size and passing ability are a combination of skills you find in foundational pieces of rosters across the league.
Smith is the ideal player to pair with that style of creator for a few different reasons. Offensively, his scalability both on and off ball is a valuable trait, as the style of his game thrives in both settings. The versatility of Smith’s game relies on his jumper, and that is the thing I am most confident in projecting forward. One injury-marred season doesn’t change that.
Adding size and the ability to play through contact would be next in line, and one that feels pretty safe to project (at least to a moderate degree) considering his frame and age. NSJ is never going to be a bully ball guard, but he has the height and length to grow into a stronger player than he is currently. Being able to finish some looks through traffic would be a positive step, and something that should come easier on a properly spaced NBA floor with NBA level offensive players surrounding him.
On the defensive end, much of the vision again relies on Smith adding at least a modicum of strength. He is a hyper-quick athlete with the kind of twitchiness you need out of a point of attack defender in ball screens. He does an excellent job of using his body to maneuver through screens while staying locked behind the defender, where his length does wonders as he recovers to contest.
Certainly there were major lapses in technique and attentiveness throughout the year, but when things were clicking the vision of NSJ as a player who can successfully fill a role in an effective defense begins to look a little clearer.
This is not to say NSJ is going to be a high impact defensive player (though I am undoubtedly higher on his defensive potential than most), but he does fill a useful role for most rosters. No star, big or small, wants to defend opposing point guards at the point of attack. Smith has the tools to succeed there, and with the proper organizational emphasis should do well enough there to provide value, all while being an incredibly dynamic offensive player.
That road to even moderate impact is important, as it means the likelihood of a prospect becoming a “man without a country” on the defensive end. NSJ may not be the best POA guy in the league, but he has the tools to fare much better than the alternative. Taking the defensive assignment nobody wants to take and providing potential star offensive value on and off the ball is like team building fertilizer, it makes growing a healthy roster landscape that much easier.
The Wrap: Guards are Good
The idea of a “lead guard” is a useful concept, one that describes a general archetype that is one of the most valuable in the league, but its definition has become too narrow.
In a modern NBA where offensive initiation is more diversified than ever before, the requirements of point guards differ on nearly every single NBA team. The idea that being a point guard requires three-level self creation and advanced passing reads to be an A1 point guard prospect is overly dismissive.
The best guards in the postseason are the guards that mesh perfectly with the needs of their surrounding talent. Every player has their own strengths and weaknesses, team building in the NBA is about finding players that accentuate the strengths of the best players in your team.
Cason Wallace and Nick Smith Jr are primed with strengths that enhance modern title contenders and the players around them with the upside to change the course of a championship. Sounds like a lead guard to me.
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