I’ll also touch on my misses from last year, and how I hope to correct for shortcomings next cycle. Let’s waste no more time and dig in.

2023 Values

This section covers the players I ranked highest relative to the actual draft results, utilizing Kevin Pelton’s draft selection value table. Is there a common theme, am I missing or onto something?

Drafting with One Eye Closed

GG Jackson (my #12, drafted #45), Trayce Jackson-Davis (my #26, drafted #57), Leonard Miller (my #9, drafted #33), Jalen Slawson (my #28, drafted #54)

My biggest difference this cycle from last was trying to have a more holistic approach to a player’s own role curve. That is to say, comfort with a role (particularly in the NCAA) is not automatic, unlikely chosen by a player and often different than presented in recruiting efforts. College teams need players to win, development systems need player to develop, players just want to be selected as high as they can while balancing the goals of stakeholders around them. It can be messy, and often is.

The group I’m discussing here did not all have sub-optimal roles, but perhaps ones that masked their appeal as prospects, or distorted viewpoints of how they might contribute.

My single greatest difference to actual draft results was one Gregory Jackson the Second. At #12 on my board, Jackson was not selected until the second round by the Memphis Grizzlies. While rumors abound of immaturity from GG during team workouts, I’m less bothered given the substantial talent, obvious at his young age.

The most significant obstacle to draft analysis, in my view (beyond not knowing ball) is to make a one-to-one connection between items you notice and items of significance. Watching GG, it is not difficult to spot places where he could do better. Passing is the most obvious, often tunnel-visioned in his scoring approach, amplified at South Carolina by few other legitimate options but still clearly present in Summer League play as well. But if one were to ding Jackson for each and every missed pass, one might come away with a more negative view than is accurate in consideration of his star power, and that’s really what we’re here for.

It is more damaging to not take major swings than it is to have the occasional bust. If a player busts, his on-court impact simply goes to zero – there is a natural downside limit in that you’re not forced to give a player playing time, nor does it necessarily hurt your odds of acquiring more talent. But if he hits, and I mean truly hits, as in worth a max contract, that changes your franchise’s profile over a decade or more. This asymmetry runs up against basic human intuition: risk aversion means we are naturally suited to play it safe. But for that exact reason can be the source of extreme value in the NBA draft.

GG was third in usage of all freshmen as the youngest player in all of college basketball. He never looked overwhelmed athletically, consistently hitting the boards (17% defensive rebound rate) while using up a mega amount of iso (100), PNR (107) and spot up (143) possessions. Simply put, senior year HS aged players are not built like GG, not often. While a scout may see a sea of red marking up his execution on complex plays, he is able to put himself in those scenarios over and over with the flexible tank that is his hulking 6’9’’, 215 pound frame.

GG has a combination of traits I view highly in combination: when he has his nose in a play, he is determined to finish it (dawg factor); a frame to play power forward or small-ball center; the flexibility to get low into drives; an elite second jump; good shooting mechanics. Those are the traits of a scoring engine – as I put it in my scouting report of Jackson early in the season, “GG wants to be your team’s leading scorer,” and he has the mold for it. There are simply not many people in the world who have that combination of traits at an NBA level, and it takes two seconds watching GG move in Summer League to see how easily he belongs, physically.

Moving on to the rest of the group, the theme remains of swinging into uncertainty, where you have tangible evidence of NBA player-ness. By that last term I mean a collection of base skills that would be surprising to find in a non-NBA player. Let’s go through them quickly.

• Trayce Jackson-Davis: production, production and production; second jump; balance; sparks of creativity and touch at size
• Leonard Miller: dawg factor; production at age and competition; elite flexibility; sparks of creativity and touch at size
• Jalen Slawson: production and athletic versatility; team success; sparks of creativity and touch at size

The common trait for these remaining three is having some passing and some shooting touch but also defensive creativity, capable of picking up unexpected assists, steals or blocks in ways that took their opponents by surprise. Being two steps ahead of processing at lower levels, or even just hanging in at a higher level (in Miller’s case) is a good sign of being able to pick up NBA schemes, and the size of all three makes it easier to get the reps to showcase that. The flashes of touch and passing are simply compounding benefits as different areas of value on the court and expanding number of schemes in which they fit.

All four of the players here have role questions. “Can GG play off-ball?” (Summer League answer: yes); “Does Lenny fit cleanly into the 3, 4 or 5?” (Summer League answer: yes); “Can Trayce Jackson-Davis protect the rim as a 5?” (tbd); “Can Jalen Slawson shoot well enough to be a 3?” (tbd). But I also think these questions oversimplify what is a chaotic process in scouting. As Avinash said in his stellar Leonard Miller piece, “since when can we effectively project roles to begin with?”

That is not to say we shouldn’t try to project role, but we certainly shouldn’t let confusion in the exercise stop us from ranking a prospect highly.

I call this section “Drafting with One Eye Closed” as drafting is foremost an act of imagination, but that includes some willful optimism at times. The balance of cost relative to benefit of trying to make an unusual player work is lopsided, assuming the talent is indeed there. We draft players to try to alter the path of franchises, and the only way to do that is to try where others do not. Role occlusion, whether established upperclassmen or molds-of-clay youngsters, can be an opportunity masked by the same risk that drives people away.

To put the concept in more human terms, the game of basketball evolves in unexpected ways, and you need unexpected players to fit that evolving vision. The talent and effort side is the player’s job; fitting them onto the basketball court is the role of those around them.

Make Something Happen

Nick Smith Jr. (my #13, drafted #27), Amari Bailey (my #19, drafted #41), Sidy Cissoko (my #25, drafted #44)

Decision-making can be the most maddening NBA skill to dissect, making it all the more important in our evaluation of guards specifically. Guards typically survive on being nimbler, better handlers, shooters than their taller brethren, but this also means they have to make a greater number of decisions with or near the ball. If their decision-making is sound, they will make the product better, scheme running smoothly each time; if poor, the whole system can collapse. Repeat the process not once or a few times but dozens of times per game, thousands over a season. Despite having only middling 17% usage (7^th on his own team), Kyle Lowry still touched the ball over a thousand times in the 2023 playoffs, as an example. Whether or not a guard is a true lead initiator, they are going to be making countless decisions for your team.

Nick Smith Jr., Amari Bailey and Sidy Cissoko all make decisions in vastly different ways, which mixes differently for each of them with their differentiated skillsets. Sidy Cissoko is tall and strong for a guard but a poor shooter, Nick Smith Jr. is shorter and very skinny but a great shooter, Amari Bailey falls in between for all three traits.

Their playing cadences are vastly different, with NSJ being an elixir, playing like white blood cells seeking out weaknesses; Sidy is a maniac, unpredictable-squared; Amari Bailey is consistent in effort first and last. All are deviants from the expected in their own ways: given Nick Smith’s elite touch and handle creativity, one would expect him to be a pure hooper. Sidy one could easily cast aside as an unreliable project. Amari’s consistency of effort could prevent an analyst from noticing the flairs of upside.

My source of comfort in ranking them highly varies for each of them, as well. But it is consistent in one thing: the route-making of offensive schemes has always been a jagged line rather than a straight one. The ideal basketball play is a run to the basket and dunk, or run to the three point line and swish. But with the constancy of movement and ten athletes making decisions simultaneously, the way forward is rarely straight through.

This section is a dedication to the basketball weirdos, or irregularities in subtle ways. Amari Bailey may seem like the outlier in his inclusion, as Sidy and NSJ’s funkiness jump off the page. But Amari covers a ridiculous amount of ground as an athlete, both laterally and vertically, the type of athlete which would thrive as a cornerback or an outfielder or tennis player or…really anything. But Bailey plays subtly, workmanlike to the point of nearly hiding this fact. One is used to athletes of Bailey’s versatility taking up usage wherever they can, testing the limits of the dynamic fun that it must be to have those tools at one’s disposal. But Bailey, for whatever reason, does not seem to care about all of that, or else finds such enjoyment from applying them, not bluntly nor florid, but simply so. That aspect is maybe the easiest to look over: someone simply doing their job for its own sake. Especially in a freshman one-and-done, highly touted from a celebrity program. Don’t miss it with Amari.

Role Reducers: Priority UDFAs

Craig Porter Jr. (my #33), Adama Sanogo (#38), Terquavion Smith (#36), Justyn Mutts (#42), Ricky Council IV (#43), Taevion Kinsey (#45), D’Moi Hodge (#46)

Here we have a group of undrafted players I had ranked in my top 50. I’m not sure if there’s a common thread here beyond role players who I believe have a shot of being starters, even if miniscule.

All have their quick pitches as NBA role players: Porter Jr. makes sense as a defensive play-maker and creative passer next to a high usage guard. Sanogo if a team wants to run a five-out scheme on either end with a hybrid big. Terq is the obvious, nuclear pull-up shooting threat. Mutts is one of the best passing big wings in the country. Council had perhaps the best slashing tools in college hoops. Kinsey may be the most unusual, a stellar athlete ball custodian type with funky shot. D’Moi Hodge the cleanest role fit, and the most surprising undrafted for that reason as a steals & threes maven.

I mention the concept of “false ceiling” prospects, a term I coined to mean prospect commonly seen as low ceiling but with tougher-to-see avenues to outperform those expectations. I believe this entire group qualifies, let’s run through the list again. Porter Jr. does not make sense as a shotblocker, at 6’2’’ putting up a 5% block rate (one of every 20 opponent two pointers) while only fouling 2.3 times per 40(!!!). Sanogo has rare touch, shooting 77% at the rim on gigantic volume and above average everywhere else. Terq has become underrated as a passer, improving his A:TO from 1.2 to 1.9 and assist rate from 14% to 23%, all while shooting 14 threes per 100 possessions. Mutts is a rare breed, a strength-based wing with soft passing touch, perfect for motion-based, precise systems. Council’s athleticism shines in transition where he can improvise to the hoop for an acrobatic finish, at 1.2ppp on 114 transition attempts. Kinsey played in a lower conference, but that may mask his NBA athleticism, dunking over 200 times across his five college seasons. Hodge is underrated in his aggressiveness, with over 100 rim attempts finished at a 72% rate this past season.

The entire group are sophomores or older and non-premium selections as UDFAs, as it is safe to say you won’t build your team around this group. But if I were to bet on anyone undrafted ending up a useable starter at some point in their careers, it would be from this crew. The avenue to that happening has been laid out roughly in their previous spots, but amplified by further conforming to a reduced role and playing with greater talent around them.

Lessons of the Past

The 2022 draft cycle I spent obsessed with archetypes, attempting to break down the roles on the court into four: 1. Rim Protectors, 2. Connectors, 3. Shotmakers and 4. Engines. As I felt already by the time that draft day arrived, this approach had clear shortcomings. Prospects are not fully formed into their archetypes yet, and flashes of potential can be more important than fully fleshed out skills.

My three biggest misses all came from this too narrow of a sorting process. For Walker Kessler, I zoomed in too far on his inconsistent rim protection footwork technique, missing how he was blocking a gargantuan quantity of shots despite it due to advanced hand-eye coordination, size and effort. He also was able to quiet my mobility concerns by slimming down some, bringing us to another point of analysis: at the ages of prospects, they are still getting used to their athletic bodies.

Jalen Williams is another illustration of this, showcasing a major athletic leap from Santa Clara to the pros. The tape transformed almost overnight, as before when his closeouts lagged and he may have settled as a table-setter, now he looks a full power primary. The signal here was the Combine scrimmages, where J-Dub adapted to a more off-ball slashing role the second he hit the floor, using his plus wingspan to dunk in traffic with ease. The archetypes system over-fit for his Santa Clara role, not adaptive enough to appreciate his flashes of elite versatility.

Finally, a player I was too high on: Johnny Davis. At the risk of reacting too early, Johnny appears at the nexus of both of these points as well. From an archetype approach, JD is interesting. He was super physical in college, capable of some dribbling, passing, shooting, if not dominant anywhere. But he looked like he could carry a large load, and had enough clips of looking like a dynamic athlete, all the while fighting hard on the defensive end. The script has completely flipped between him and J-Dub, as Davis has been losing on the margins at the first line and without tools to salvage missteps. Where before he looked like a potential to hit in multiple archetypes, now he looks more like a mediocre prospect for each. The difference in athletic and skill profile from NCAA to NBA makes previous roles potentially untenable while also opening up new avenues for what were only flashes before.

Lessons for the Future

My goal this past cycle was to take a more holistic approach to a player’s basketball narrative. Where are they in their own cycle? A draft cycle involves only 6-8 months of new tape to indicate what a player might be for an entire career, and we need to imbue that with the appropriate lack of certainty. Imagination is the name of the game for draft work, something I’ve reminded myself constantly this past year, and helped me to be more comfortable with the one-eye-closed upside swings. Similarly, I have been keener to extrapolate those flashes out, as a player’s developmental trajectory can be as dynamic as their playing style.

The one item that remains elusive to me is projecting athletic profiles to the future. Already in Summer League I see a potential miss in Keyonte George, adapting quickly to weight loss with a more explosive playing style than we saw at Baylor or IMG. Athletic projection, again, a source of my miss on all of Kessler, J-Dub and (in the other direction) Johnny Davis, requires a technical level of biomechanical knowledge I have not attained. We have in our sights a theme for the 2024 cycle: how does the body develop amid intense athletic demands, and how can you tell who can incorporate these changes better than others? Stay tuned.

The post Lessons from the Draft Cycle appeared first on Swish Theory.

#17 Pick – Jalen Hood-Schifino, 6-6 G, Indiana

Playing in the Big 10 and going through highs and lows in his lone freshman season at Indiana, Jalen Hood-Schifino was not the most popular pick the Lakers could’ve made at #17. With top-5 projected pick Cam Whitmore falling down the draft board reportedly due to worrying medicals, there was a sense that the Lakers would be the team to give in and take the high-end talent that was Whitmore. Instead, the Lakers trusted their board and went with a guy who has plenty of talent in his own right to go along with his high IQ and scalability alongside the two stars in LeBron James and Anthony Davis.

Jalen Hood-Schifino is a smooth, but big guard. Standing at 6-foot-6 and weighing in at 216 lbs, the Lakers should welcome him with open arms as he adds more size to their backcourt. He has a slick, tight handle that allows him to traverse the court with ease, and has the strength to shield off defenders while deploying his handle. As far as standout traits go, his steady ability to operate and score out of the pick-and-roll is very impressive to watch at such an early stage of his basketball career. 

Indiana, under former NBA coach Mike Woodson, ran a ton of pick-and-rolls between Hood-Schifino and Trayce Jackson-Davis (a well-rounded big that went 57th in the draft to the Golden State Warriors). Hood-Schifino’s sweet spot on the court is the midrange from 10 feet all the way out to right before the arc. He is very comfortable there and will go to that pull-up midrange a ton as he ranks in the 73rd percentile on off-the-dribble jumpers out of all D1 players. He was able to knock down a good amount of open looks due to Jackson-Davis’ impeccable screening but JHS was also able to play make in these situations as well. To add further context, the personnel on Indiana’s roster made the spacing complicated and playmaking chances were narrowed, but Hood-Schifino made the best of what he had to work with. He showed some impressive playmaking with either hand and mostly to Jackson-Davis who he had amazing chemistry with. Last season after the trades, coach Darvin Ham loved to run the three-guard lineup consisting of D’Angelo Russell, Austin Reaves, and Dennis Schröder, and due to his skill and size Hood-Schifino should be able to plug and play in this lineup as needed. At Indiana, he was not asked to be much of a connector as he was the primary initiator in most cases but with his slick passing, awareness off-ball, and decisive attacks, he has the tools needed to be a good enough connector to play alongside other ballhandlers.

Improvement Areas on Offense: Two massive warts in Hood-Schifino’s game right now are his finishing and 3PT shooting. Per Synergy, he shot 52.5% at the rim and 30% on his catch-and-shoot threes. With his size and wingspan, I think his finishing will be an easy area to correct, but as of right now he just doesn’t have the finishing craft required for guys without elite athleticism. The craft—deceleration, using the shoulder bump effectively, high finishes off-glass, not taking off from far away—should be skills he learns and utilizes as he gets older and gets more experience in the league. He only had four dunks on the year and all of which were of the “Rimgrazer 2K dunk package” variant and you’d just expect more lift coming from a 6-6 guard. The shooting is a bit tricky though, as he shot 30% on his catch and shoot threes but interestingly shot a much better 37% on his off-the-dribble threes. And this is a complete contrast to his high school numbers at Montverde Academy, where he shot 35% on his catch-and-shoot threes but 15% on his off-the-dribble threes, so his 3PT shooting is a bit all over the place. However, there is some optimism that with how good of a midrange shooter he is, he can expand that jumper to beyond the arc on a consistent basis. This would be very beneficial for the Lakers’ yearly spacing concerns and would make the offense more dynamic as a whole.

Defense: Hood-Schifino’s size and length with his 6-10 wingspan make shooting over his contests a struggle for opponents. His tenacity combined with strength and mobility at the point of attack is something that few players had in this draft class and was a trait that made him stand out. Overall, his screen navigation is solid, however, when he does get caught up on a screen he doesn’t recover and get back into the play as much as I would like him to. He has a lot of moments in pick-and-roll situations where there wasn’t enough communication which ultimately led to open shots for the other team, but now with Anthony Davis defending pick-and-rolls with him, that shouldn’t be an issue. Hood-Schifino can also be overaggressive at the point of attack where he can get beat just by guarding the player farther out than needed. Occasionally he did get beat by quicker guards which leads me to think he could be more suited as a wing defender instead of being primarily at the point of attack. Either way, he’s versatile enough where I would trust him to guard 1-3 and be solid all around. Off the ball, he’s an engaged team defender and was a really good nail and stunt/recover defender in Indiana’s scheme that was tactically very sound and drilled really well. He was also good at making sound rotations although his closeouts could be better, these are the little things that will get him on the court early so they’re just as important as the bigger things. 

Expectations: It would not surprise me at all if Hood-Schifino had a slow/rough start to the season but, he has a good enough foundation in all facets of the game for me to trust him long-term with good development. I expect he will be used in a lot of pick and roll, but he will also have to grow as an off-ball player to prove he can be the versatile connector that so many contending teams desire. He’s very well rounded, thinks the game well on both ends, and from multiple reports from the Lakers and at Indiana, is a high character person on and off the court with tons of work ethic. I think we will see him going up and down from South Bay to the main squad as he adjusts and gets acclimated to the next level. Over the course of the season, I could definitely see him getting more and more comfortable, eventually leading to consistent rotation minutes on the main squad.

#40 Pick – Maxwell Lewis, 6-7 W, Pepperdine

The big get the Lakers were able to pull off in the (almost) consensus opinion of the draft community, was acquiring Maxwell Lewis at the 40th pick as this might not have even been the case if they didn’t deal with the Pacers to move up a couple spots. Lewis was projected in the 20s throughout most of the year but was one of several players in this year’s draft to have a surprising slip down the board. Nonetheless, the Lakers were able to add somebody who oozes talent in a variety of ways.

Lewis is a 6-7 skilled wing that simply knows how to put the ball in the basket. Per Synergy, he graded out as “Good” or “Very Good” in the following play types: spot-ups, transition, P&R ball handler, post-ups, off-screen, and cuts. His versatility as a scorer will be very welcomed on a Laker team that had a couple of guys who were only comfortable in certain situations and only could score in certain play types; that isn’t the case for Maxwell.

It starts with his jumper where Lewis has pristine mechanics and can get it off comfortably in a lot of ways. Catch-and-shoot, coming off of screens, pump fake one dribble jumper, midrange pull-ups, 3PT pull-ups, stepback threes, sidestep threes, and even turnaround and face-up jumpers in the post, Lewis is capable of pretty much whatever is required of him in the moment of each particular scoring situation. Although Lewis’ overall 3PT percentage was an average 35%, he shot a blazing 44% on catch-and-shoot threes which is something he will be doing a lot when he gets to the big leagues. It’s also his jumper that allows him to exploit defenders who guard him too high up expecting a three, where he’s able to drive around them with ease. Or when defenders are overplaying him off-ball and he can cut to the rim and show off his athleticism and finishing package. He’s shown the ability to attack off the catch as well, bursting through the gaps of a rotating defense although I’d like for him to hone in on this even more. Lewis shot a very good 63% at the rim this season which can be a bit surprising looking at his slim and slender frame. He uses long strides to get to the rim and utilizes his long wingspan effectively when at the rim to finish around contests.

Improvement Areas on Offense: At Pepperdine, Lewis was relied upon a lot, leading the Waves (easily the best team name in college ball) in FGA and in usage rate. And since Lewis was so efficient in several different areas well, they went to him a lot and for good reason, but this came with a drawback. Lewis posted a negative assist-to-turnover rate of 2.8 assists to 3.3 turnovers per game and at times, looked a bit over-tasked as the primary shot-creator for the team. Combined with his loose handle and wild pass accuracy, he can produce some chaotic possessions that added up at the end to 5, 6, or even 7-turnover nights. Lewis also doesn’t have the best vision when creating and can get stuck in “scoring mode” very often. Now that isn’t to say he can’t pass, as he loves mixing in a dump-off pass, throwing it to a diving big when the defense blitzes him, and can through the occasional cross-court pass. Still, reading the court more consistently will be something he’ll need to improve upon at the next level.

A couple of other improvements I would like to see offensively is he had a lot of traveling calls at the start of an attack, mainly in spot-up situations but this is a minor issue and should be ironed out over time. Another improvement he can make and probably his biggest is that he should be cutting to the rim way more often so he can use his plus athleticism to his advantage. On offense, he can kind of just float off the ball and stand in one spot if there isn’t some set motion or actions going on and he really doesn’t cut unless he is being overplayed. This led to games where he would end up taking only 7 or 8 shots as the team’s best player which made you leave scratching your head wondering where he disappeared to on offense. Mixing in some smart cuts would be found money for him going forward and I’d love to see it.

Defense: Now, on to the main question mark of Maxwell Lewis and what will ultimately determine his floor as an NBA player, his defense. I’ve seen him get a two-way label slapped on him from various Twitter accounts and as a prospect, Lewis was definitely not a two-way player. The simplest way to put this is, when I watch Lewis it feels like he’s just out there. Not going that extra mile to be a positive, but is doing just enough to not be a negative. His reaction time isn’t that great and he doesn’t follow his man as tight as you would want off-ball, allowing slips in the crack for his man to exploit by smart cuts. These mental mistakes combined with the fact his technique on that end isn’t that great and he gets blown-by way more often than he should, he will have a lot to work on defensively once he gets in the league. There were many plays where I thought he could’ve slid to help and actively tried to create somewhat of a defensive presence but he just doesn’t. This is where his upside comes in with his 7-foot wingspan; he most definitely has the tools to become a positive defender. But this is also the reason why he slid; at Pepperdine, was it that he didn’t try to put in the extra effort on defense due to him being the star? Or does he just not have the defensive intangibles needed to be a positive defender? And the latter question is the worrisome outcome if true because the offense will have to weigh out the defense and that pathway isn’t something you can bet on unless the player’s offense is clearly a significant positive for his team every time he’s on the court.

Expectations: If the Lakers gave Maxwell Lewis the “Talen Horton-Tucker Plan” of pretty much exclusively playing in the G League while the main team is trying to contend, that would not shock me one bit. Especially with Lewis’ thin frame, it could take him a while to get used to NBA-level basketball and that is fine. The Lakers are not in a situation where they need him to be a contributor from day one like what might’ve been the case a couple of rosters ago. All that matters for this upcoming season is reps and development because the outcome could be pretty special if it all pans out.

The post Lakers Draft Recap: Skill to Build Upon appeared first on Swish Theory.

Not only will this piece analyze their games up to this point, but also give home remedies to fix what has gone astray. Developmental time when you enter “the league” is highly variable, dependent on draft slot, training staffs and existing personnel. But these players are often already a season behind given poor fitting one-and-done campaigns. Let’s see if we can’t help to set the new crews off on the right foot.

Dereck Lively (RSCI #2, Pick #12 to Dallas Mavericks)

Lively has perhaps the largest discrepancy between strengths and weaknesses in this class, and it wasn’t always clear Duke knew which was which. His up and down season included an early season benching, no longer starting as of the second week of January, but was able to bounce back by season end. His offensive toolset paled in comparison to the more versatile Kyle Filipowski, but defensive dominance is perhaps better suited for the pro game.

My favorite trait of Lively’s is his complete discipline on the defensive end of the court. Watching his pre-college tape alerts one to how this is: playing next to also-elite rim protector Jalen Duren in AAU, Lively learned to move all about the court and have an impact, not just stand near the hoop. Controlled aggressiveness has always been the name of the game for the seven-footer: a description likely worth a lottery pick at face value. His 5.2 fouls per 40 minutes I attribute more to just how many actions he covered, and not unprecedented in elite rim protector prospects (see: Joel Embiid’s 5.8 per 40).

The offensive end is limited in the strictest sense of the word. He is limited in that he has zero post moves and poor touch with the ball, but is able to find areas of value regardless. Returning again to his two-big lineup days, Lively is excellent passing to the interior, a coveted trait for a player of his size. He is able to seek passing windows for drop offs, even occasionally dribbling once or twice to create the space. He truly reminds one of Boston’s Robert Williams III in his ability to let go of the ball quickly despite zero shooting gravity. Expect him to be effective at dribble hand offs as well as empty side pick and rolls, anywhere he will be less rushed with a gap to create even a little.

Rookie Year Remedy: Rim First, Always

There is plenty to like about Lively as an NBA player, #8 on my board. But to insure he sets off on the right path, it’s important to tie him to his livelihood: the rim. Lively is an excellent roamer, but his size and technique better suits a hedge and recover big. If there is one area Lively lacks on defense, it is rim-first approach: he prefers to hunt out the action regardless of where it is. Instilling rim-first defensive principles is essential to him reaching that lofty All-Defense potential, an item Duke failed to preach, harmed by his inconsistent role.

While there was all kinds of hubbub about Lively’s three point shooting potential leading up to the draft, that is a highly unrealistic outcome in my mind for a 60% free throw shooter who made *1* midrange shot all season. In his rookie year with Dallas, Lively should be either 1. In the dunker’s spot, or 2. Hitting a body and rolling to the hoop, at any given point. Oftentimes at Duke he looked in no man’s land, setting a screen into a pre-failed action: that will not be the case with Luka, and makes it all the more important to know exactly where to space.

Brice Sensabaugh (RSCI #49, Pick #28 to Utah Jazz)

It is difficult to understand how Sensabaugh was ranked so low coming out of high school, or why he came off the bench for Ohio State. He has every sign of a unique scoring talent, eating up midrange space as a prospect to then let the feathery touch do the rest of the work. The defense needs work, but that is often the case for premier scoring talents like Brice.

First of all, the numbers – Sensabaugh shot 172 midrange attempts and made just short of half of them. Only Grant Williams and Marcus Morris exceeded his midrange volume and efficiency, and Brice had only 18% of his makes assisted compared to 50% for Grant, 43% for Morris. There is a good case to be made for Brice as the best midrange scorer in recent NCAA history.

So then, why did he fall to the 20s?

The defense, at times, is indeed indefensibly bad. Worst of all is the assignment confusion, a threat to his NBA playing time when player movement is ramped up to a far greater degree. Counteracting this is his defensive rebounding, where his rates of securing boards looks indeed like athletic wings, similar to that of Paul George or Miles Bridges in college. Brice is a big body, and knows how to leverage it in a timely manner when locked in. This gives us hope.

The passing is the other nitpick, and much more nitpicky. Passing is more context dependent than defense at a college setting, and Sensabaugh’s unique scoring traits make him a square peg in round hole for most traditional systems. I saw plenty of talent in him moving the ball, particularly adept at understanding how to make even a shallow drive into a kick. He will never be an offensive conductor, but you want Sensabaugh to finish plays anyways, rather than start them.

Rookie Year Remedy: Work From the Corners

The biggest benefit to Sensabaugh in an NBA system will be how he can no longer be the primary focus of opposing defenses. Sensabaugh struggles to get first steps on opponents, but is excellent at maximizing whatever margin is available. If he can lean into a spot up first, midrange craft second approach as a rookie, he can leverage his teammates’ scoring to help his own, and passing.

On defense as well, keeping Sensabaugh away from the action and close to the tin for rebounding purposes is the way. He will certainly be targeted in switches, where it will be essential for him to stay disciplined – his low steal rate and fairly high foul rate point to a poor decision-maker as it comes to trying to play-make on defense. He can be often found swiping where he shouldn’t, determined to compensate for lack of foot speed.

Utah has a bit of a challenge in finding how to maximize Sensabaugh’s unique talents, but Brice playing inside of his game can help shorten that journey.

Noah Clowney (RSCI #74, Pick #21 to Brooklyn Nets)

Clowney had less of a flawed season and more of a narrowly-defined one. He accepted a role player position at Alabama as a top-100 recruit in Nate Oats’ structured system, a three-and-D power forward between prized Brandon Miller and veteran Charles Bediako. Clowney filled the role admirably, putting up the fifth best Box Plus-Minus grade of any high major freshman.

Watching Noah’s pre-NCAA tape you see mostly the same, but there is intrigue along the fringes. The type that certainly tipped the Brooklyn Nets into seeing more. Most notably, I think Clowney can pass. Not guard-level passing, but adequate for a big, reminding me a bit of Minnesota’s Josh Minott the draft before. He cannot dribble beyond once or, maybe, twice, but when he does he makes the right play more often than you’d expect (for someone who can’t really dribble). The technique needs work, but you can see the outlines of a viable DHO conductor. Clowney got very little practice with the ball on a stacked Bama team, so it’s difficult to say what the ceiling is.

The archetype is swell: Clowney can block some shots, hit some threes, and use his size, strength and touch to finish inside and rebound. Unfortunately, his shotblocking is closer to good than great, three point shot closer to bad than good. But what I was most impressed with is how decisive Noah is when he gets the ball near the basket. His one-step craft to finish is indeed good, and, as Clowney is still not even 19, may end up very good.

Rookie Year Remedy: Play the 5

Now, I just pointed out Clowney lacks high-end polish and consistency across the court…you want him to take on more responsibility? Yes.

Clowney has the physique to hang in the interior, if not the discipline yet. But as a middle-of-the-pack squad lacking a big man floor spacer, the Nets can do worse than giving Clowney some bench run. As the five man, Clowney can refine his interior discipline, often caught contesting on his feet but leaning too far over, allowing his opponent to draw easy fouls. Rep those traits out of him while you have the chance.

Additionally, Clowney with a clean paint will allow him to experiment in ways he was prohibited at Alabama. Despite not being close to a focal point of the offense, Clowney had 27 dunks (6 more than Brandon Miller) and shot a very strong 64% on non-dunk rim attempts. He only took 25 midrange shots but hit half of them, encouraging that his touch is more effective inside the arc. As some more encouraging stats, when Clowney played without Bediako on the floor his free throw rate rose from 0.27 to 0.64; his rim rate from 35% to 56%; his rim finishing from 67% to 74%. He shot fewer threes but gained efficiency everywhere.

Clowney is unlikely to ever be a starting center or power forward, but by letting him run as a backup 5, he may improve both skills. He is strong enough at his core to eventually handle the more physical assignments, let him prove his offense against that.

Cam Whitmore (RSCI #12, Pick #20)

 Whitmore is a high-flying tank, a tornado of activity with a punch, punch to the rim. It’s easy to mix metaphors for a player whose movements make little sense. He’s a stout 232 but has one of the quickest first steps in the class. He is a power mover who can also chop his legs. I would not like to guard Cam Whitmore.

So, why am I lower on him? Well, first of all, he’s quite predictable. Whitmore loves his left, almost always utilizing a combination of a lefty in and out, crossover into either pull-up or straight line acceleration to the rim. The issue is the complexity and flexibility: despite the magic of his movements, it is still tough at the size of a torso to chain together quick moves.

On top of that, Whitmore does not seem like a very creative player. Much of his pre-NCAA production came from transition play, which, yes, that absolutely should be a priority of his NBA game. But he also misses open passes, some obvious rotations, and generally prefers to go from point A to point B without a flexion point in between.

I’m optimistic on him being a plus defensive player simply due to the significance of his physical tools; that quick of a step at that size is going to get blocks and especially steals. Steals are as valuable of a task one can complete outside of putting the ball in the basket. But when it comes down to papering over all the little items opponents can exploit in high-stakes matchups, it is not clear Whitmore is up for the task.

Rookie Year Remedy: Keep It Simple

I run the risk of being low on Whitmore in the same way I was too low on Bennedict Mathurin: NBA teams will be able to cover up for his weaknesses by getting him in his optimal spots. In particular, a young team like the Houston Rockets should be more than happy to run with Whitmore on the wings. Fortunately, he will not need to create many advantages on his own when playing off of Amen Thompson, passing extraordinaire, allowing him to catch the ball when already downhill. The combined pace and vertical talent of those two will be extremely difficult to contain in the open court.

The defensive end might be trickier, on a team that had the second worst points allowed per possession last season. The Rockets still lack an identity on that end, but might do best to lean into their hectic event creators of Tari Eason and Amen as steal mavens: a constantly roaming crew would also make the transition into transition easier.

The minutes breakdown in Houston will be fascinating to watch this year. But they have at their disposal, now, such a dynamic of talent that in order to take advantages of their weakness you may have to first disable their advantages. Leaning into Houston’s collective strengths with quite the store of talent will yield some unexpected results; many of those involve Whitmore as a major player.

Dariq Whitehead (RSCI #1, Pick #22 to Brooklyn Nets)

There was not a single prospect who deserved to have his season tape thrown out than Dariq. With a foot injury that required surgery before the season which never properly healed and a lower leg strain mid-season, Whitehead never looked close to his usual self. It is painful to even watch him try to move around the court wearing a Duke jersey; I cannot imagine what it felt like. Here’s hoping he undergoes the recovery he deserves.

To imagine what he might look like on the other side, we resort more to his high school and AAU tape. Whitehead was arguably the best player in all of high school basketball, rated first in the entire class by RSCI as well as winning the Naismith High School Player of the Year Trophy, back to back national championships and the MVP award for the McDonald’s All-Star Game. While Whitehead’s teams often featured other NBA-level talent, he stuck out consistently for his poise under pressure and contributions across the court.

Dariq is not without flaws as a prospect, but may be without any significant enough to call a true weakness. His athleticism is tilted more towards pace and balance than burst and power, but he is still able to win on first step and dunk above rim protectors here and there. I would advise against putting him on the quicker guards, but he should have no issue finding a suitable assignment on the wing. Whitehead simply contributes across various axes: his constant activity and nose for advantages means locating rebounds, rising and firing in a crowd, excelling at connecting passing but capable of throwing advantage-creating ones as well.

Whitehead has long been a favorite of mine to watch, and I feel a disservice to him in not being selected until the 20s. The NBA draft, first and foremost, is about imagination, even if it’s not obvious on the surface. Whitehead may not recover his full athleticism, but he was always more of a problem-solver than nuclear athlete anyways.

Rookie Year Remedy: Pindowns Galore

For once, it would be nice if things were made easy for Whitehead. From essential connector piece as a HS underclassman to shouldering the usage load as a HS upperclassman to just trying to stay on the court at Duke, he has fought for all he’s taken. I am proposing making it easier on Dariq.

My two favorite Whitehead weapons are the quickness with which he can get his shot off and his ability to stay upright on drives. Wrap those up with some decisive and creative playmaking and you have yourself an excellent play finishing prospect, especially if he stands at 6’6’’. I trust Whitehead perhaps as much as any in the class to make a dribble-pass-shoot decision off the catch while moving through a crowd, so here’s hoping that’s the desired destination for the Nets in getting Dariq up to speed.

Jordan Walsh (RSCI #17, Pick #38 to Boston Celtics)

If you got by Jordan Walsh, no you didn’t. Jordan Walsh has about as ideal as possible recovery tools on the defensive end. Inevitably, even the shutdown defenders lose a step to a true-blue offensive star. The basketball court is tilted towards the offense as the holder of the first move, and how little space it takes for many to get a shot off. But after the gap is created, Walsh will be as good as any at crawling back into perfect position; in fact, many of his steals and blocks came from what would be considered a disadvantageous position.

Walsh is the best shutdown defender prospect in this class, and the best I can remember in recent classes. Unfortunately for Walsh and other such as Usman Garuba, being a lockdown defender does not always guarantee playing time, especially if, as both of them are, you are an offensive liability.

Jordan almost certainly will be a negative on offense, but I am here to argue there is a chance he will not, and perhaps much greater than you think. The shot is where we start, inaccurate but not broken, as there is a lot to like: a simple one-two motion, decently set feet, but inaccuracy due to spatial issues (he throws inaccurate passes here and there) and a bit exaggerated of a form. Both can be fixed by corner three reps, as his 71% from the line, 28% from three and 36% on deep twos point to 33%+ on open threes potential.

The more significant reason for optimism lies in his tape from Link Academy. While inactive most of his time on offense for Arkansas, at Link he was the key to both their transition offense and connecting their half-court offense. He looked far more confident on the move, as with the Razorbacks could get overwhelmed in catch and drive situations. But I see a real passing threat as Walsh is highly creative for a wing and has the athletic tools to take advantage, or else get to the rim. Time to think at Arkansas meant overthinking, but again we see a lane for some offensive value.

Rookie Year Remedy: Just Belong

Walsh gets my most esoteric suggestion, as he simply needs to relax and trust the system on offense. That will be much easier, hopefully, in an ironed out NBA system with a longer view on Walsh’s role. Boston acquiring an early second round draft pick to take the defensive stud – a type they are long familiar with – is encouraging that he will be brought along at the right pace. Obvious from the tape, Walsh loves technique and being in the right place: the Celtics’ infrastructure should encourage that.

To get more concrete about the basketball court, Boston could use some additional front-court athleticism, particularly attacking the rim. Walsh is a stellar vertical athlete, clocking a 33 inch standing vert on top of a 7’1.75’’ wingspan. He is always vigilant on the court, and letting him leak out early in transition could do wonders for his offensive confidence. It may be ugly here and there, but when you have a talent of high athleticism with some creative potential, ugly may be worth putting up with. When remembering we are talking about a potential All-Defense level defender, the rewards of even slight offensive improvements could be spectacular.

Nick Smith Jr (RSCI #3, Pick #27 to Charlotte Hornets)

Nick Smith Jr., perhaps more than anyone on this list, put everything on tape at Arkansas that you would want, if you look for it. Most notably, in his 25 point, 6 assist, 4 steal, 3 rebound, 1 block masterpiece versus Kentucky, or similar 20+ point outputs with stats elsewhere versus Alabama, Georgia, UNC Greensboro and Oklahoma. In these games we see the sell for NSJ, quite obvious: he can score on the ball as easily as off the ball, and will work as hard as he can to be positive everywhere else. The passing is the “swing skill” – if he is indeed the PNR maestro he appeared before Arkansas, which I think he might be, Nick has real All-Star upside.

The shot and, more specifically, the touch is where the pitch starts with Smith, lofty for a guard but instead in a player with a 6’9’’ wingspan. That wingspan and touch mean any shot within 12 feet is available as a floater; his vigilance as a scorer and strong technique make him a threat beyond; his ease of fluidity into pull-up make his range endless despite the wiry frame.

As a pure scoring prospect, there are a few items you could ask for that Nick lacks: his first step is okay (made up somewhat by shiftiness), he has little strength (made up somewhat by aggressiveness) and he can be a bit programmatic getting into his actions. But even that is mediated by Nick’s unique head for finding the right action.

Time and again in watching Nick Smith’s tape, his team used him as a sort of offensive cure-all. Need to set up the primary action? He is a suitable custodian for the ball and adept in PNR. Need to come up with a counter quick? Nick is decisive with good enough handle and passing instincts to set up secondary. Shot clock running out? No shot is a bad shot for a shooter of Nick’s level.

Yes, his shooting efficiency was poor at his time with Arkansas. But knee injuries throw off the entire kinetic chain, making splits tough to judge without proper oomf into gather. At EYBL, Smith shot 56% on 8 twos per game and 38% on 5 threes per game. That is, flat out, both elite volume and efficiency, enough to wipe away any doubts. The tape as well shows ideal technique and the ball time and again falling softly off the rim through the net, if touching the rim at all, from every angle and release point imaginable. Buy it.

Rookie Year Remedy: Let Him Take the Hits

I mean this in a quarterback’s sense, as in, it’s tough to get into a rhythm without taking part in the physical aspects of the game. Nick is an aggressive player by nature, a rarity in his aesthetically-minded offensive archetype and beanpole frame. At every level of competition he can be seen helping aggressively when needed (sometimes when not), flailing around the court and picking up a surprising amount of loose balls and even blocks by virtue of activity. Smith struggled to provide this as often at Arkansas as in years prior, limited particularly in his ability to turn corners, previously much quicker.

NSJ needs not just to grow into his frame, but also continue to find ways to maximize his physicality as a way to win when speed does not. Again unusually for type, Smith has proven capable of finishing through traffic, even yards away from the rim with his touch. If he’s able to get to those spots and hold them down more consistently, that touch can do the rest of the work.

Jalen Hood-Schifino (RSCI #20, Pick #17 to Los Angeles Lakers)

The Schifino section might be the shortest as, well, I have the fewest hard takeaways about his game. JHS was extremely unproductive as a freshman with Indiana, in a context I don’t think was particularly unfair to him. While Hood-Schifino looks the part on the court, good stance and technique generally, he is the single least productive one-and-done first round pick in the barttorvik.com database.

JHS stood out at the NBA Combine with his seven-foot wingspan, which, in conjunction with a strong frame makes him a physical presence. However, the physicality stats lag: he only had 4 dunks all season, only rebound 1.6% of opportunities and had very low steal and block rates. He only took 76 free throws and the exact same number of rim attempts. Hood-Schifino survives, rather, on tough shotmaking.

While falling short of Sensabaugh’s midrange dominance, 90 for 216 (42%) is nothing to scoff at, especially considering JHS struggles mightily to create separation. He gets into his shot pocket almost automatically regardless of position, a rare trait. But scoring prospects need easy buckets, and those were few and far between for Jalen. While his finishing touch and creativity is good, he struggled to hit openings, stuck taking difficult rim attempts. This, along with mixed three point results, dropped his true shooting percentage below 50% – a tough pill for a shotmaking prospect.

If, rather, you view JHS as a table-setter, I have qualms as there too. For someone who looks in ready-set position at any given point, Schifino makes a shocking number of careless errors. Whether not executing a pass fully or not concentrating when catching the ball, a 19% turnover rate for someone with fairly basic offensive responsibilities is another red flag.

Finally, the defense. I want my table-setters to get into their opponent’s body, or at least be constantly roaming to use their length. JHS doesn’t really do either of those, evidenced both by his low stock rates and the tape where he’s seen getting disconnected from his man fairly often. The margins are small for this type with plenty of guard competition; JHS’s wingspan stands out, but is he using it?

Rookie Year Remedy: Shoot, Shoot Some More

The promised land for JHS, as well as the Lakers, relies in Hood-Schifino’s tough shotmaking. It is astounding at times how unbothered he is despite have zero breathing room to get a shot off. With a quick, high release, I trust him to get his tough FGA when he wants it, even if easier creation looks never come.

With LeBron on the team, JHS won’t have to table set if he doesn’t need to, and instead can run off of screen after screen to create that separation. His 6.1 threes per 100 possessions will hopefully be the fewest in his career, as 3s > 2s and JHS has no issue launching from distance.

I struggle to see JHS changing his tune as it comes to productive stats as the precedent would be too severe compared to his stats profile at Indiana, but it is still just one season. His pedigree, playing with the top HS and AAU teams in the country, should help him fit in on a win-now team, as he certainly looks like a pro when he steps on the court. But the carelessness is a quick way to be taken out and lose important development reps.

The post Evaluating the 2023 NBA Draft’s “Flawed Freshmen” appeared first on Swish Theory.

Chris Paul is now in Golden State. Jordan Poole, Patrick Baldwin Jr., and Ryan Rollins are in Washington along with some protected picks. And now Golden State attempts to realign its timeline, starting with a draft in which they added three players in the first round, second, and undrafted free agency. Let’s take a deeper look into the three newest Warriors, and how they fit into the current roster.

Brandin Podziemski

It felt like all eyes were on this pick to get a true sense of how this new-look front office would operate. And they did not disappoint.

After a rough freshman season at Illinois, Brandin Podziemski transferred to Santa Clara after Jalen Williams made himself a lottery pick and left huge shoes to fill. Podz was equally dynamic in his own right: his 10.0 BPM mark was the second-highest amongst all underclassmen. Only Brandon Miller eclipsed that mark, the only college player drafted in the top 7 picks last night.

The method by which the Curly-Headed Assassin came into his production was unique for guards. He was far and away the most prolific rebounding guard in this draft (perhaps in several years), racking up a 21.0% defensive rebounding rate and 10.3 boards per 75 possessions. He’s a hustler on the defensive end through and through, and it jumps out on the tape.

I really enjoy the technical aspects of his defensive game. He’s not a shutdown guy on the perimeter by any means, but does a great job at keeping people in front of him, using his active hands for steals without fouling while breaking up passing lanes on and off the ball. Considering the kind of point-of-attack defenders that Golden State has, I think he can do a great job on secondary assignments and make a real impact off the ball with his nose for off-ball event creation and superior rebounding talent.

The offensive side of the ball is where Podz will shine. He’s lethal with the ball in his hands, possessing a great handle and touch with a knack for getting to his spots. Brandin can get to his step-back with ease, hit all kinds of funky floaters, and contort his body around the rim for tough finishes. Despite a high shooting volume from outside (41.3% on 5.8 attempts per game), Podz drew a strong 32.3 free throw rate and converts his trips to the line with regularity. The quickness, floor sense, and natural touch scream future three-level scorer with the potential for a truly elite perimeter and intermediate game.

Though the assist numbers weren’t gaudy with his role as an off-ball guard, he still managed to cross the 20% assist rate plateau with an array of strong passing looks. He is especially adept at layoff passes after drives, but can hit rollers from a variety of angles and make long skips with either hand. There is a true point guard in there, but Golden State would happily settle for plus playmaking from a combo spot given his shooting and driving talent. His ability to convert on passing windows was on display at some of the combine scrimmages against his fellow draftees:

With good size, athleticism, tons of natural touch, and savvy with the ball in his hands, Podz can be a big-time scorer in the league in due time. The major question for now is how he slots into this roster, and new GM Mike Dunleavy Jr. seemed to throw some cold water on him being handed any sort of role:

It’s worth noting Dunleavy also said Podziemski was “8-9 spots” higher on their board than 19th overall, so he clearly believes in him in a big way, especially with Jordan Poole going cross-country. Podz may enter the season no higher than fifth on the depth chart at guard, but with an aging and oft-injured Chris Paul in the fold, expect to see him on the floor plenty to fill in the gaps.

Trayce Jackson-Davis

Before the draft began, our role-projection model had a few fits labeled as “perfect”. Trayce Jackson-Davis to the Warriors was one of those perfect fits, and freshly minted GM Mike Dunleavy Jr. went and made it happen.

He fits like a glove into the Warriors’ offensive system. He has an outstanding handle for a true big, and shows great coordination in the post with a variety of body fakes and rip moves. If given a mismatch on the perimeter against slower centers, he could put the ball on the deck to get into the paint or make a kickout pass. He was doubled in the post at a 99th percentile frequency, and was not only able to continue scoring but involved his teammates at a high level.

Not only does he have a refined offensive game, but plenty of athleticism to boot. He’s not the most dynamic leaper but can load multiple jumps quickly to get quick dunks, lobs, and putbacks on the offensive glass. TJD posted an above-average rebounding rate on both ends of the floor in all four years at Indiana University, and the production on the glass reached absurd levels in his senior year with 13.7 rebounds per 75 minutes. If he is the rotational big behind Kevon Looney, they might not experience the drastic drop-off in rebounding numbers when the Loongod sits.

His skillset is very conducive to the DHOs, split actions, and short rolls that the Warriors love using their bigs for. He’s a refined screener and quick decision maker, but the passing really jumps out. In an offense filled with relocating shooters and baseline cutters, he can read the floor quickly to find the window and deliver an array of beautiful passes. I don’t think it is hyperbole to say Trayce Jackson-Davis will easily be the best passing big not named Draymond Green that Steve Kerr has had to use. Just watch the variety of reads he can make here:

This preternatural feel for the court will make him deadly on handoffs and pick-and-roll, especially given the bench unit. Chris Paul-TJD two-man game with Gary Payton II cutting and shooters like Podz and Moody on the wing? That’s how you keep an offense afloat when Steph Curry heads to the bench.

All this discussion about his offensive brilliance, and I have hardly mentioned he scored 25 points per 75 possessions across the last three seasons. The NCAA is a far friendlier environment for a guy like Trayce to get high usage, but there is more than enough reason to think he will be a plus scorer with his touch around the rim, strength, footwork, and touch out into the short midrange. He checks all the boxes the Warriors need offensively, and will be a seamless fit into the motion offense as a true 5.

Defense was a concern for any team trying to draft him, but the Warriors have been turning cents into dollars with their rim protection for years. They have posted back-to-back seasons with the top opponent rim field goal percentage with Kevon Looney and Draymond Green as the primary centers, and Jackson-Davis is taller than both of those guys. He has his athletic limitations, especially with lateral movement, but they can make drop bigs work with their personnel. Trayce has shown he can be a strong rotator and passable rim protector, and I’ve always liked how he positions himself to block and contest shots without costing himself valuable rebounding position. He’s even shown the occasional strong closeout in years past:

What happens on the bench wing spots is still up in the air, but Gary Payton II and Chris Paul will have the lion’s share of defensive possessions at the guard spots. GP2’s defense speaks for itself, and CP3 is smart enough not to put his bigs in avoidable defensive situations in the pick-and-roll. If he can control the restricted area, continue positive contribution on the glass, and occasionally show at the level of the screen to keep offenses honest, he won’t be a weak link in the defensive unit.

This was an absolute home run by the Warriors in my eyes. I had him listed as a high second-round buy in my draft day guide for Golden State, and had no expectation he would be available this late. A clear path to a rotation spot, great value, and an experienced winning player on a cheap multi-year deal. What else could you want from the 57th pick?

Javan Johnson

With Lester Quiñones set to graduate from the G-League soon after a massive season with the Santa Cruz Warriors, Javan Johnson should be another solid add to their developmental roster. If it’s buckets you need, buckets you will get from Javan.

A 24-year-old 5th-year senior, Johnson put up a strong season with DePaul (his third different CBB team) where he really found a groove. Initially miscast as a stretch forward, DePaul let Javan put the ball in his hands as much as possible and reaped the benefits.

He made 41.2% of his 6.0 threes attempted per game, 89% of which came in catch-and-shoot scenarios. At 6’6″-6’7″, he has a strong release point and quick, repeatable motion that evokes flashes of Isaiah Joe. When you’re sniffing around undrafted free agents, having one immediately translatable skill is a great starting point. He’s pretty good at using body fakes and cuts to open up shooting opportunities as well, and profiles as much more than a “stand there with your hands ready” kind of shooter. There are some signs as well that Javan could be more than a catch-and-shoot specialist.

It’s likely that the rim pressure game never gets there. Possessing middling handle and burst, Johnson was never a free-throw guy in college and it’s hard to imagine that getting better at the highest level. Yet Johnson has smooth footwork and touch, and showcases an ability to get into the midrange off the dribble or attacking closeouts. A one-level scorer is hard to translate, but a two-level scorer gives you a bit more meat on the bone. If teams have to respect the shot, chances will open up for 1-2 dribble pull-ups in the midrange, especially above drop when he is coming off screens.

On the defensive end, Johnson doesn’t profile as much of a wing stopper. He can make some technically sound plays but lacks the requisite foot speed and strength to stay with most scoring wings. However, he has shown some flashes in rotation, consistently posting a solid block rate for an off-ball wing. If he has to be hidden at the 4 spot defensively, that really puts a damper on his overall prospects to find an NBA niche.

But this is undrafted free agency; these guys don’t get to this stage without some flaws. It gives them another project in Santa Cruz with at least one pliable skill, and shooting specialists are always good to bet on for such a low risk (see Heat, Miami).

The post Warriors Draft Day Wrap-Up appeared first on Swish Theory.

The Wemby Tier

1. Victor Wembanyama, Big, Metropolitans 92

As much as I loved them as prospects, this is why you can’t call guys like Cade Cunningham, Evan Mobley, and Chet Holmgren generational. Because if you do, what in God’s name do you call Victor Wembanyama? Once in a lifetime? Once in an epoch? I don’t even know what to say about Wemby that hasn’t already been said a hundred times. We have never seen someone as tall as Wemby (7’5) move as fluidly as he does while displaying touch from every area of the floor. Oh and by the way, he also anchored the number two defense in France and led his team to their first ever finals appearance as a 19 year old. 

Let’s start with Wemby’s defense. No one is safe against Wemby in the paint. He uses his 8’0 wingspan to block shots at an absurd rate (9.7 BLK% this year). Rim protection has always been Wemby’s best skill, as he led the Euroleague in blocks as an 18 year old with ASVEL last year. Wemby’s unique physical makeup allows him to block and alter shots that no one has ever been able to. That play where he was backpedaling in transition, flipped his hips, and blocked an alley-oop is just one of many examples of Wemby using his otherworldly tools functionally on defense. He covers a lot of ground in the halfcourt too. He often finds himself in positions that would leave most bigs out of the play, only to swoop in and bother the shot. He does stuff like this while only averaging 2.1 fouls per game as well! The discipline Wemby shows to not get sloppy when protecting the rim is remarkable. Wemby is going to be a killer drop defender in the NBA, but he also shows proficiency at the level of ball screens. He slides with perimeter players and gives them problems with his length. Wemby’s hands are also surprisingly quick. He occasionally strips ball handlers and can initiate the ensuing transition opportunities. Given his tools, smarts, and pedigree on defense, I feel comfortable projecting Wemby to be contending for DPOY awards throughout his career.

Then there is the offense. Turn on any highlight tape or game of Wemby’s, and you will see jaw-dropping shot-creation and dribble combinations that you can never quite believe a 7’5 player is uncorking. His move from ASVEL to Metropolitans 92 allowed him more freedom to explore his shotmaking, which likely dragged down his percentages, but helped his long term development. As I am writing, he has only shot 27.6 from three this season, which is the one hair in the soup for Wemby’s statistical profile. But, I am not worried about that. Given the degree of difficulty on some of these shots and his natural touch (81.3 FT%), it’s pretty safe to say that Wemby is going to shoot. The Spurs should trust him as both a catch and shoot threat and an isolation scorer from day one. His work in the midrange is deadly, especially his turnaround jumper, which no one can feasibly block. Wemby also hits stepback threes with regularity, and he might be the player who officially ushers the three point floater into the game of basketball. Once again, this man is 7’5!  

Wemby’s passing stands out too. He needs to clean up his turnovers by acting on his decisions quicker and not telegraphing his passes. But, he can pass off a live dribble and hit cutters and spot up shooters accurately. Wemby is also great at hitting the dunker’s spot in short roll situations. I wouldn’t describe him as a manipulative passer, but he won’t need manipulation to be an effective playmaker. He finds the open man following double teams with ease, and he will only improve his more advanced reads with time. Wemby posted 99 assists and 121 turnovers this season (0.82 AST:TO), an encouraging ratio for a big man prospect in Europe. For reference, Marc Gasol had a 0.9 AST:TO ratio in his pre-draft year, and he was the best big man passer in the league until a certain Serbian showed up. Wemby should only improve as a playmaker over time. 

Are there flaws in Wemby’s game? Sure. He can’t quite punish height mismatches in the post by backing them down, and instead has to rely on shooting over them every single time. Again, his 3P% has to increase, which his FT% and the eye test already suggest will happen. It feels weird to even discuss this stuff because these flaws won’t matter in the grand scheme of things. They certainly will not prevent him from being the obvious choice at number one. The other discussion surrounding Wemby is what his frame will mean for his NBA longevity. There’s no ignoring the truth: players above a certain height have had trouble staying healthy in years past. Former number one picks Ralph Sampson (7’4) and Yao Ming (7’6) were the consensus choices at the time, but knee, back, and foot injuries prevented them from having long careers. But, Wemby and his camp seem to have taken these cautionary tales into account and have worked diligently on his body. At this point, Wemby’s long and detailed warm-up routine is well documented. If he suffers a career setback due to injury, it won’t be because he neglected to address potential medical issues. 

Not only is Wemby the obvious choice at number one, he is by far the best prospect I have evaluated in my time as an armchair scout. He is the prize of the last ten drafts, and is likely to be the prize of the next ten drafts. With his combination of size, fluidity, scoring, playmaking, and elite defensive potential, there’s no telling how good Wemby can become. The Spurs have once again lucked into the big man prospect of the decade, and he will vault them into contention within the next few years. 

Tier 1

2. Scoot Henderson, Guard, G League Ignite

He doesn’t hold a candle to Wemby, but Scoot Henderson is a great prospect in his own right and by far the next best swing for stardom in this class. For starters, Scoot’s per 100 line in the G League is ridiculous, as he put up 27.5 points, 7.9 rebounds, 10.2 assists, 1.9 steals, and 5.1 turnovers. Scoot is a force when his motor is fully revved up. Even though he stands at only 6’2, Scoot is built like a semi truck. He boasts a 6’9 wingspan in addition to his chiseled 200 pound frame, which ought to quell any concerns about his size at the next level (yes, some people are actually concerned about this for some reason). He uses his powerful frame to brush off contact and finish with ease. Scoot also has some craft around the rim, utilizing reverses as well as changing up his body angles and timing with his footwork. When he has a head of steam, Scoot threatens to posterize rim protectors

Scoot’s shot, while a work in progress, projects to be an asset at the next level. He shot 32.4% from three in his regular season and showcase games, in addition to an even 75 percent from the line. Scoot is not comfortable shooting off the dribble from three yet. Some people are skeptical that he will get there. But, in his higher end outcomes, I think a pull up three is very attainable. Teams will go under on ball screens at the start of Scoot’s career until he can reliably punish teams for doing so. He will have more time to get his pull up three off in these situations, and he can concentrate on speeding up the decision to shoot as he improves his efficiency there. 

Where Scoot thrives is in the midrange. I love how polished Scoot is setting up these shots. He takes what the defense gives him in drop coverage, and his pull up is an effective counter on drives to the basket. He settles for too many jumpers from there rather than attacking the rim, but the concern over this phenomenon is overblown with Scoot. Sam Vecenie of The Athletic brought forth the idea that Scoot phoned in his rim attacks and contact seeking in order to avoid injury. I think there’s some credence to this idea. The G-League Ignite program is all about securing a high draft pick for these prospects, not necessarily competing at the highest level. So, you can hardly blame Scoot for taking his foot off the gas when he solidified his status as a lock for the top three. 

Because of this, improvements to Scoot’s scoring game inside the arc are imminent. I suspect he will find himself at the rim and the free throw line much more starting from early in his career. Shot selection issues almost never derail prospects with the physical tools of Scoot’s caliber. When their coaches emphasize getting to the efficient spots they can relentlessly attack, these players usually adjust. Look at how quickly Anthony Edwards dialed up his rim pressure in the NBA; I think Scoot will undergo a similar development process. 

Scoot also makes virtually every pass in the book. An AST:TO ratio of 2 and 10.2 AST per 100 demonstrate how advanced of a passer Scoot is for his age. He collapses defenses and sprays the ball to shooters off a live dribble. He is creative with his interior passes, as he expertly manipulates bigs in the paint on dump offs and lobs. Weakside skip passes have become necessary for NBA primaries, and Scoot already shows aptitude in that department. With his physical tools and quick decision making, he’s going to be a transition nightmare as well. 

Defensively, Scoot has the tools to be good, but there’s a ton he needs to clean up. When he’s on, Scoot navigates screens well on the ball, and he gets into ball handlers and disrupts them. But, his tape contained a ton of preventable blowbys where he was barely in a stance. This is hardly atypical for a young primary initiator, but you’d hope to see a little more from Scoot given his physical tools. Off the ball, Scoot got caught ball watching too much, and his steal rate of 1.9 per 100 doesn’t sway me in a positive direction here. His closeouts could use a great deal of improvement as well. I have no doubt that Scoot’s defense will improve as his career goes on, but the degree of improvement remains to be seen. 

Scoot’s athleticism, projectable jump shot, advanced passing, and reported intangibles make him an excellent primary initiator bet. Primary initiators are the players we think of as stars in the NBA. This makes Scoot the clear-cut number two prospect in this draft. Charlotte, don’t mess this up. 

Tier 2

In the past, my Tier 2 has been reserved for prospects who are confident All-Star bets with a chance to deservedly command a max contract down the line. Obviously, Wemby and Scoot both slotted in above this tier. I believe Scoot can make All-NBA teams down the line. Wemby, well, nothing is off the table for him. After these two prospects, the talent drops off significantly in my eyes. Don’t get me wrong, there are still plenty of great prospects with star upside in this class. But, they are much less obvious from here on out. Thus, I don’t feel confident enough in anyone else to put them in Tier 2 or above. Let’s move on. 

Tier 3

3. Cam Whitmore, Wing, Villanova

I still can’t really believe I am doing this, but here it is. Cam Whitmore at three – the same Cam Whitmore who seemingly averaged one pass per game at Villanova. If you read my last article, first of all, thank you. Second of all, you know that Cam Whitmore has what I call a compounding skills profile. “Compounding skills” refers to a development pathway many great players have undergone: a raw and fluid athlete who builds on flashes of perimeter skill until they are a complete offensive player. Make no mistake, Whitmore has as big a learning curve as any compounding skills prospect I have seen. His 6.4 AST% is historically low, and the efficiency of his pull up game leaves a lot to be desired. And yet, there have been too many compounding skills success stories for me to put Whitmore any lower than this. With compounding skills prospects, we are shooting for a fairly complete offensive player down the line. But, as I said, Whitmore’s passing and off the dribble game are clearly not where they need to be. So, what am I betting on with Whitmore? 

First off, he has a lot of time on his side with a July 2004 birthday. He’s a year and a half younger than the Thompson twins and close to two full years younger than Brandon Miller, three players who are often mocked higher than Whitmore. That age difference has gone underdiscussed throughout this draft cycle. Secondly, Whitmore is a mutant of an athlete. His preference for two-foot leaping could present some initial bumps in the road around the rim. But, it’s hard to get hung up on that when Whitmore has the best speed/power combination I’ve seen since Anthony Edwards. At 6’6, 230, Whitmore is a downhill force. His flashes as a driver are special. He can get downhill and completely displace defenders. Even against good on-ball defenders, he can easily get his shoulder past them and finish through contact. Whitmore has legitimate touch around the rim and can utilize a lot of finishing angles when his initial plan is cut off. 

Additionally, Whitmore has enough perimeter skill to suggest that he can become a great three-level scorer down the line. I think his handle is underrated. He keeps the ball under control on drives, and he already has some go-to moves to create shots for himself, including a polished stepback. The shot itself looks good to me. He shot 34.3 percent from three on 9.4 attempts per 100, which for his age is actually pretty encouraging. Many of these shots came from comfortably outside NBA range as well. He only shot 70.3 percent from the line, but I trust Whitmore’s mechanics and the deep range he already possesses will make him a trustworthy shooter at the next level. 

Whitmore’s shot selection is a Moreyball dream. He exclusively operates at the rim and from three, which probably inflated his 55.1 eFG% (good number for an 18 year old college wing). This ought to help him as a play finisher in his first couple years in the NBA, but if he is going to become an on-ball scorer, he’ll likely need to develop a midrange game. His attempts at pull ups or floaters inside the arc were rare, and when they occurred it didn’t look pretty. Whitmore has some serious work to do here, but he has the time to get it done. Passing is the other glaring weakness in Whitmore’s game. I’ve already mentioned his woeful 6.4 AST%, and his slow processing prevents him from creating more advantages for himself and others. Whitmore would benefit tremendously from eliminating that extra beat that he takes every time he gets the ball before deciding what to do. I’ve liked some of the passing flashes I’ve seen from him, he executed some nice live dribble dump offs and the occasional skip pass. But, they were flashes in every sense of the word. If you blinked, you might have missed them. 

Defensively, Whitmore has serious flashes to build on going forward. He can be a terror on the ball, using his strength and lateral quickness to get into ball handlers and guard multiple positions. While his team defense is messy right now, Whitmore still nabbed 3.2 steals per 100 and showed some amazing weak side rim protection. Historically, scouts have gotten burned when talking about prospects like Whitmore defensively. They get hung up on the effort level when the tools are so clearly there. Andrew Wiggins and Anthony Edwards are two examples of compounding skills players who were deservedly flamed for their defensive effort (in Wiggins’ case, comfortably into his NBA career). But, they turned into excellent defensive stoppers. You want to bet on the talent and tools combo every single time, and Whitmore has both in spades defensively. 

I’ll close with a principle that I solidified back in 2020 because of Anthony Edwards: with young and powerful athletes, focus on the flashes. If these prospects can do something once, chances are they can do it again until they make it a habit. Before you know it, you have an All-Star on your team. Developing Whitmore is going to require patience. But, if he follows the compounding skills trajectory I expect him to, he can turn into the two-way wing shot creator that NBA teams crave.

4. Jarace Walker, Forward, Houston

Those who follow my work will know that I have talked about Jarace Walker ad nauseam. My false ceiling alarm bells went off early in the college season, and I haven’t shifted my position since. Jarace was a key contributor on both ends to a Houston team that finished number one in pre-tournament KenPom rankings. He had an eye-popping statline of 25.2 points, 15.2 rebounds, 4 assists, 2.2 steals, and 2.9 blocks per 100 possessions. That high level impact on the box score was good for an 8.8 BPM as well. 

We know what Jarace can do as a connector, and I expect him to contribute in a similar manner from the jump in the NBA. It’s rare to find a 6’7, 240 pound forward who processes the game as quickly as Jarace does. Look no further than his passing, where he seems to always find holes in the defense and exploit them. The ball never sticks with Jarace. He has a knack for keeping the ball moving and optimizing the offensive possession for his team. He only averaged 3.3 turnovers per 100 relative to his four assists, only reaffirming Jarace’s top tier court mapping and lightning quick decision making. His short roll passing is outstanding, and if you need someone to just stand at the nail and make decisions, Jarace is that guy. 

Additionally, Jarace is an amazing defender. I already mentioned his stock numbers, which were so good because of his unbelievable team defense. He flies out of nowhere to block shots regularly, and he can read ball handlers and play the passing lanes brilliantly. As a help side rim protecting four, Jarace has the potential to make a huge impact. Even though he is just 6’7, Jarace also showed some coverage versatility as the roll man defender in ball screens. Houston trusted him to hedge ball screens, drop, play at the level, pretty much everything. I want to reiterate that Houston was KenPom’s number one team and number one defense before the tournament. The fact that Jarace had this large of a role in both those rankings as a freshman has been another underdiscussed talking point this draft cycle. On the ball, Jarace’s hips can be a bit slow, so he is susceptible to quick changes of direction. But, he’s light on his feet, and he uses his fast hands to jar the ball loose and earn transition opportunities. He might not be an elite wing stopper, but Jarace has enough to build on for his on-ball defense. 

The degree to which Jarace’s scoring game develops will dictate his upside. At 25.1 points per 100, he was far from a non-scorer in college. But, he was reluctant to attack the rim, and he wasn’t super efficient away from the rim either. There are certainly justifiable concerns with how Jarace is going to score in the NBA. However, Jarace’s placement on my board should indicate that I believe he’s going to find a way to score. 

For starters, I think Jarace is going to shoot. Last season, he shot 34.7 percent from three and 66.3 percent from the line, hardly a resounding point in his favor. But, Jarace’s mechanical improvements from his senior year of high school to college were remarkable. He also shows good touch in the short midrange areas, especially with that floater that he loves. I always cite unassisted two point jumpers as a strong indicator for shooting when traditional indicators fail, and Jarace hit 30 of them. I love the direction Jarace’s shot is headed, and his elite processing indicates that he has the neuroplasticity required for further development. I can’t help but project Jarace as a reliable catch and shoot threat at the very least. I also don’t think self-creation is out of the question in Jarace’s high end outcomes. We’ve seen guys who specialize in the close midrange area at the college level slowly develop their isolation scoring. What’s awesome is that Houston gave Jarace iso opportunities throughout the season, and he delivered in some key moments. As a UVA fan, I remember him cooking us with fadeaways down the stretch all too well. 

It’s difficult to see how Jarace fails in the NBA. Teams always look for players in Jarace’s mold: smart and versatile wings who can impact the game in many different ways. The floor is incredibly high here, and Jarace will be afforded opportunities to experiment and add to his game as a result. I’d be shocked if Jarace does not find himself playing in high stakes games for at least a decade in the NBA. 

5. Taylor Hendricks, Forward, UCF

Taylor Hendricks: false ceiling prospect number two in this draft. Hendricks had a truly meteoric rise this year. He went from number 46 in the RSCI rankings to a consensus lottery pick and the fifth player on my board. I understand if you are skeptical of ranking Hendricks this high. But, let me ask you something: how many prospects in recent memory have met Hendricks’ thresholds of youth, size, shooting, athleticism, and incredible defense? It’s not that many, right? There’s Jabari Smith last year, and the next one I can think of is Jaren Jackson. I wasn’t scouting prospects in 2018, but I know that Jaren was clearly a better prospect than both Jabari Smith and Taylor Hendricks. These are not direct comparisons. The point is that using Hendricks as a threshold for the categories above sets the bar quite high.. 

The first thing that stands out about Hendricks is his size and shooting combo. At 6’9, 215 pounds, Hendricks shot 39.4 percent from three on eight attempts per 100 and 78.2 percent from the line. He shoots a comfortable ball with a high release point that is tough to contest. Similarly to Jarace Walker, Hendricks has greatly improved his jump shot since high school. He only shot 31.2% from three in his last two years of high school and EYBL play (hat tip to Maxwell Baumbach, @BaumBoards on Twitter for that stat). To go from that to nearly 40 percent is quite impressive, and the free throw percentage suggests that it is sustainable. The high release point and touch could lend themselves to improvements off the dribble as well. This process played out with guys like Khris Middleton, Kawhi Leonard, and Mikal Bridges. 

Hendricks’ athleticism also stands out, and he already uses it functionally as an off ball player on offense. He excels as a cutter and playing out of the dunker’s spot, as demonstrated by his 36 dunks on the year. While still a work in progress, Hendricks’ flashes of attacking closeouts have looked good too. I trust that to continue being a weapon for him as NBA defenders begin to respect his shot. The drawbacks with Hendricks offensively are his handle and playmaking ability. I love the functional athleticism, but his loose handle sometimes prevents him from fully taking advantage of his gifts. I think Hendricks’ current handle woes lead to some of his difficulties with unassisted looks at the rim, which has been a common criticism of Hendricks. Guys with Hendricks’ athleticism often experience improvements to their handle, and improvement as a dribbler will help Hendricks attack the rim off the dribble efficiently.  

Hendricks also isn’t much of a passer at this stage, and he unfortunately does not have the first step of someone like Cam Whitmore which lends itself to passing improvement. He is limited to fairly basic reactive reads, only processing what’s happening in his direct field of vision. Hendricks averaged 2.4 assists per 100 and 2.5 turnovers. I like that his AST:TO ratio is around one, but that’s a small amount of assists relative to his usage. I suspect that Hendricks’ passing will be another beneficiary of an improved handle, but the degree of improvement remains to be seen. 

Where Hendricks really shines is on defense. I honestly think he is on a similar level to Jarace Walker on that end. He used his size, verticality, and timing to be a force of a helpside rim protector. Hendricks averaged 3.0 blocks per 100 and only 3.5 fouls. He already has an advanced verticality technique, and he uses his frame and leaping ability to stifle drivers at the rim. Hendricks can cover an insane amount of ground on these rotations too. This allows him to close out to shooters from further away than most players as well. Additionally, Hendricks will guard anyone you need him to on the perimeter. He has fluid hips, slides his feet, and likes to get close to ball handlers and bother them with his length. Unlike Jarace, I’m not sure I trust Hendricks to be the roll man defender in ball screens. His role is going to be a wing stopper and help defender, and I think he will excel. 

Closing the loop here, I want to share a Barttorvik query I stumbled upon. Do you want to know the only two freshmen in that database to have an eFG% > 55, BLK% > 5, 3PA/100 > 7, and over 30 dunks? Taylor Hendricks and Jaren Jackson Jr. That is it. I mentioned the traits of youth, size, shooting, athleticism, and defense. I also mentioned that Hendricks sets an incredibly high bar for those attributes. The eye test informed that take, but a statistical search using numbers close to Hendricks’ marks corroborated it. Hendricks will thrive in a 3&D role immediately, and if you think that is where a 19 year old kid will stop his development, you are sorely mistaken. If Hendricks is drafted in the 7-14 range, he has a chance to be a steal in this draft.  

6. Brandon Miller, Wing, Alabama

As a 6’9 freshman, Brandon Miller was arguably the best perimeter player in college basketball this past year. He was a consensus All-American and led Alabama to the overall number one seed in the NCAA tournament. His 12.0 BPM led all freshmen in the country. Oh, and he did this all with a skillset that directly translates to the NBA, having shot 38.4 percent from three on 12.6 attempts per 100. So, what’s he doing here and not comfortably ranked third? 

First, there’s the issue of his age. I alluded to it earlier, but Miller is OLD for a freshman. A November 2002 birthday will make him 20.6 years old on draft night. He’s only three months younger than TCU junior guard Mike Miles! Taylor Hendricks is a year younger to the day than Brandon Miller; Jarace Walker is ten months younger; Cam Whitmore is almost two years younger. I could keep going. That age difference really matters when considering the development curves of these prospects. 

Second, while the production can’t be denied, I’m not sure I trust Miller to be an effective on-ball star in the NBA. He doesn’t have the functional strength or flexibility that the game’s best wing creators have. He isn’t all that bursty, and he struggles as soon as he faces a lot of contact in the lane. According to Synergy, Miller shot 39.3 percent at the rim in the half court, which is…not ideal. He lacks craft around the rim and the aforementioned athletic limitations hinder him in that area too. Miller also only shot 33.3% from the midrange, albeit on mostly unassisted looks. Miller found a way to produce and impact winning at a high level despite his limitations inside the arc, in large part due to the fact that he was a flamethrower from three. I already mentioned the volume and efficiency, and it’s worth noting that Miller can splash in shots from deep off the catch, off movement, or off the dribble. The ball comes out flat on his shot, but you can’t argue with the results. An 85.9 FT% on 170 total attempts this season only provides further evidence for Miller’s outside shooting aptitude.

Miller also dramatically improved as a dribbler and passer throughout the season. His handle can be a bit high and loose, but Alabama trusted him to initiate offense more as the season went on. He operated in ball screens and could make good passes with either hand. I also really liked Miller as a fast break initiator, where he pushes the pace and finds open teammates quickly. In order for Miller to run pick and roll in the NBA, he needs to improve the velocity and accuracy of his passes. Some of Miller’s passes were wild, especially early on, but I like that he tightened up his passes as the season went on. 

Defensively, Miller projects as solid but not spectacular. I can’t think of one standout skill for Miller on this end. He didn’t generate a lot of stocks or completely hound guys on the ball. But, his rotations were sound, he held up just fine on the ball, and he rarely made any egregious mistakes. Miller didn’t wow me like Walker and Hendricks did, but I trust him to be a neutral to slightly positive defender at the next level. 

Miller is a weirdly tough evaluation. Normally, I’d see a freshman who produced at the level Miller did and put him in Tier 1 or Tier 2 without thinking twice. That seems to be what the NBA has done. However, when you dig deeper, it’s hard to project Miller as a quality star player. Does he have the functional strength, bend, balance, or craft to create inside the arc in the NBA? Is his handle good enough to earn on-ball reps in the NBA? If not, what exactly is he at the next level? The answer there is a ridiculous wing shooter with some tertiary playmaking capabilities and competent defense. That’s a great player to have, but we’re not talking about the next Paul George here. There’s no question that Miller is a great basketball player, and I am valuing his high floor here with the list of sure things dwindling quickly. But, I can’t get as excited about his upside as the NBA seems to be. 

7. Cason Wallace, Guard, Kentucky

Cason Wallace seems to have fallen on mainstream boards, but I am not reacting to that. People are getting hung up on his size and projected role, a 3&D guard. Pencling him into this role ignores an important question: are we sure this guy is only a 3&D guard? At only 6’3, Wallace will mostly be the smallest guy on the floor in effective lineups. He will absolutely be able to play that role, A closer look indicated that Wallace might be able to bear a greater offensive load down the line. 

For starters, Wallace finished well at the rim. He could stand to get there more often, but he shot a whopping 71.2% at the rim, with just 9.2% of those looks being assisted, according to Barttorvik. Wallace also finished with 11 dunks on the season, an indicator that Wallace is underrated as an athlete. Wallace could be passive at times, and he was playing hurt for a portion of the season. None of that helped him shine as an athlete, but I love his functional strength and deceleration on the offensive end. Outside Kentucky’s system, Wallace will have more space to operate on drives and I trust that the rim volume will increase without affecting his efficiency. 

Wallace also has enough off the dribble prowess to build on for potential primary ball handler reps. According to HoopMath, he made 40 unassisted two-point jumpers, which bodes well for Wallace’s outside shooting. Wallace’s tough shotmaking in the midrange makes me more optimistic about his shot than a fairly pedestrian 34.6 3P% and 75.7% FT% otherwise would. Another great indicator for future primaries is an AST%:USG% ratio > 1. It’s rare for players to achieve this, and Wallace hit that ratio comfortably with a 24.3 AST% to a 19.9 USG%. For someone who’s almost exclusively labeled a combo guard, Wallace checks a lot of boxes for a pure point guard prospect. 

Additionally, Wallace’s defense is incredible. His 6’9 wingspan allows him to play bigger than his size both on and off the ball. Off the ball, Wallace’s screen navigation, anticipation, and rotations are top notch. His 3.7 steals per 100 (historically great rate for a freshman guard) reflect that aptitude. On the ball, Wallace terrorizes ball handlers with his lateral quickness, fast hands, and functional strength. It’s nearly impossible for ball handlers to overpower Wallace, and he is the most disruptive point-of-attack defender in this class as well. That’s a pretty good combination!

Honestly, there aren’t many bones to pick with Wallace. I wish he could separate from defenders more and generate easier looks. I wish he was a little more assertive and willing to command the offense more. Also, while Wallace meets many basic thresholds for skills like shooting off the dribble and attacking the rim, he is far from elite in those areas. It’s possible that the small sample size of one season inflated his numbers there and we don’t have a clear picture. 

See? I’m already grasping at straws while trying to nitpick. Wallace can capably dribble, pass, make great decisions, shoot from the midrange and three, and defend at an elite level. A Marcus Smart 3&D+ outcome is very attainable for him. Plus, who knows? Maybe Wallace is next in a long line of Kentucky guards whose potential was hidden under Coach Calipari. 

8. Leonard Miller, Forward, G-League Ignite

The departure from consensus continues! Leonard Miller is easily the most underrated player in the 2023 class. I made the elevator pitch for Miller in my last article, so I want to quote myself here: 

As a 19 year old, Leonard Miller put up a per 100 statline of 28.0 points, 17.1 rebounds, 2.5 assists, 1.4 steals, and 1.2 blocks. You could argue he’s had the best statistical season of any G-League Ignite prospect in the team’s history, including Scoot and Jalen Green! This was all as a raw prospect who was playing his first real stint of high level basketball coming off of an enigmatic high school career. But wait, it gets better. He was efficient (64 TS%) and he only averaged 2.3 turnovers per 100, putting his AST:TO ratio on the right side of one. 

What’s crazy is that when you watch Miller play, it seems like there is so much he can improve upon. This is what made me high on Tari Eason last year. He was able to have a highly productive season while still leaving a lot of meat on the bone for skill development. […] These guys are always good bets because they are often among the best functional athletes in their draft class, which gives them a nice baseline as the rest of their game develops. Miller is no different. I think he’s a no-brainer top ten guy in this class. 

A couple things to add here. First, addressing the concern of Miller’s shot. There’s no question the mechanics are wonky. His lower body is all over the place, and his upper body often has to contort itself to stay in alignment. This results in an impractical shooting motion, and it had a lot to do with his 30.4 percent clip from three in the Regular Season and Showcase games. The good news is Leonard has real touch. He shot 79.2 percent from the line and showed amazing touch finishing at the rim. When projecting shooting, I tend to give the benefit of the doubt to guys with touch, and Miller has it. The fact that he shot as well as he did with those mechanics might actually be a point in his favor.  

Some people also seem concerned with what role Miller will have in the NBA. My answer to that right now: I have no idea. My best guess is he starts out as an energy guy who finishes at the rim, makes good decisions, and plays defense. As his career progresses, he’ll earn more responsibilities than that, and the shot will ultimately dictate how much room Miller has to grow. I’m not a coach, and I’ll own up to the fact that I’m not sure what the specific plan should be for Leonard Miller early on. However, I am confident that there is a role for a 6’10 functionally athletic, coordinated, and smart two-way player with budding perimeter skills. I trust an NBA coach to find that role. 

You don’t see a prospect with Leonard Miller’s development curve every draft cycle. He was a guard who had a late growth spurt. He went from playing against unremarkable Canadian high school competition to thriving against grown men in the G-League within a year. That’s incredible. It also helps that everyone who’s in the know says that Miller is an unbelievable human being who’s hungry to learn and get better. You want Leonard Miller on your basketball team. Draft him with confidence. 

9. Gradey Dick, Wing, Kansas

The easy sales pitch for Gradey Dick is he’s 6’8 and has been a 40 percent three point shooter since he got his learner’s permit. His pristine mechanics, touch, high release point, and shot versatility make him one of the best shooting prospects I’ve evaluated. As far as his basic shooting numbers go, 40.3 3P% on 10.0 attempts per 100 and 85.4 percent at the line in his lone season at Kansas. 

Everyone knows about the shooting, but Gradey’s unheralded ancillary skills on offense really stand out. Chief among them is his cutting. Gradey weaponizes his shooting gravity to lure defenders close and decisively cut behind them. Gradey generates lots of easy rim attempts in this way, and he uses clever body control and angles to finish. Don’t sleep on Gradey’s vertical pop following a backdoor cut either. When he builds up a head of steam, he’s a threat to finish emphatically above the rim off a lob pass. His 15 dunks on the season back that up. 

Additionally, Gradey’s passing is underrated. He won’t be a primary initiator, but Gradey can pick teams apart coming off curls or attacking closeouts. He makes quick reads and rarely misses an extra pass. Gradey will occasionally fit the ball through tight windows in transition, and he made a couple nice weakside skips when nothing else was on. With regards to those skip passes, Gradey usually executed them after surveying the court for a few seconds. He rarely uncorked those off of pure instinct. That doesn’t matter too much though. Gradey is fantastic at simple passes and the movement off of them required for functioning in an NBA offense. For those wondering about his AST:TO ratio, it was comfortably above one at 1.25. 

Defensively, some scouts have completely written Gradey off. Personally, I am a bit more optimistic. I share the concerns about Gradey’s athleticism with everyone else. He needs to get much stronger in order to absorb contact, and quicker players have their way with Gradey when they make him move laterally. However, I think Gradey has a chance to make up for his physical limitations with smarts and effort. His 0.8 BLK% doesn’t jump off the page, but I thought Gradey flashed really good verticality technique and use of his length around the rim. His rotations tend to be good too, even if the athleticism takes away some of their efficacy. Gradey has quick hands too, which makes him effective on digs and occasionally surprising guys at the point of attack. A 2.5 STL% reflects these skills.  

Overall, I like the way that Swish Theory’s own Matt Powers described Gradey Dick: “he will be your team’s best shooter, and not your worst defender, maybe not even second worst.” Lights out wing shooters who move well off the ball and make quick decisions are ideal complementary players on offense. That describes Gradey perfectly. The hope is that Gradey finds a role defensively that can utilize his strengths and minimize his weaknesses. If that can happen, I see Gradey starting in many high-stakes games in the future. 

Tier 3.5 – The Thompson Twins

10. Ausar Thompson, Wing, Overtime Elite

11. Amen Thompson, Guard, Overtime Elite

I said most of what I want to say about the Thompson twins in my draft strategy article, so I’ll include the relevant text here. 

Amen and Ausar Thompson are perhaps the toughest evaluations I have had in my time scouting NBA Draft prospects. After all, before we even get into the Thompsons as players, there is the league that the Thompsons play in: Overtime Elite. Overtime Elite is an enigma to say the least, as we don’t really have an idea of how players translate to the NBA from that league. Last year, Dom Barlow and Jean Montero both went undrafted. Barlow played some garbage time minutes for the Spurs and was introduced into the rotation when the ultimately successful tank for Wemby was fully on. He does have some functional athleticism to his game and could maybe turn into something. But, that remains to be seen. He’s certainly not someone I want to project the Thompsons based on. 

The other guy, Jean Montero, is actually doing quite well in the Spanish ACB. He’s averaging 17/3/4 on 54% true shooting for Real Betis. It’s possible that he’s able to come over and contribute as a backup point guard for an NBA team someday. I had Montero 40th on my board last year, so I definitely think there is some talent there. But again, hardly a needle-moving development case, at least right now. Thus, I simply do not feel comfortable with the amount of data points that we have to properly project talent from Overtime Elite into the NBA.

Then, there is the actual evaluation of the Thompson twins. They were the best of the bunch in Overtime Elite, no doubt about it. But once again, we really have no idea how that dominance is going to project to the NBA. Another one of the best players in Overtime Elite, Jazian Gortman, was invited to the NBA combine, where he did not pop in any meaningful way. Scouts are projecting here, and most are erring on the side of optimism. However, I think using a top five pick on one of the Thompsons is an extremely dicey proposition. They are quite old, as both will comfortably be 20 on draft day. At roughly the same age, Brandon Miller was a first team All-American and arguably the best perimeter player in college basketball. Looking at things in those terms, I think you could argue the Thompsons should have been a bit more dominant to earn a high spot on draft boards. I THINK. Again, I don’t know. Nobody really knows. I fully see the vision for them being good NBA players. They flash a combination of elite athleticism and passing ability that we don’t see too often. They seem like wonderful people as well with strong work ethic and maturity. But, the level of competition factor is a bit too much of a hurdle for me. 

I have also mentioned some one and done prospects who fit exactly what I am looking for in the lottery. Wemby and Scoot are obvious. But, Cam Whitmore, Jarace Walker, Brandon Miller, Taylor Hendricks, Leonard Miller, Cason Wallace, and Gradey Dick are all surefire NBA guys to me whose avenues to strong positive contribution are very attainable. Once all those guys are off the board, that’s probably when I would roll the dice on the Thompsons. The reality is that both twins will be taken before several of the guys I mentioned above, and because of that I’ll take the safer guys who also have plenty of avenues to upside. 

I recognize that this is a controversial take, so I want to say that this is only one man’s strategy, and that yours might look quite different, and that’s okay. For those who would prioritize a Thompson twin in the draft, I will say that Ausar seems like the one to target. Amen seems to be the preferred twin, but Ausar was better statistically pretty much across the board (assists, steals, blocks, impact metrics, usage, turnovers, etc.). Name a statistic; chances are Ausar came out on top. Plus, Ausar is further along as a ball handler and shooter, which bodes well for his development. Amen is projected to go top five, and rumor has it Ausar is projected to fall a bit. So the smarter move to me is to get Ausar further down the board. 

I hope I’m not being flippant by putting the Thompson twins down here and discussing them as a group. That is not my intention. This is truly how I see them stacking up in this class. Putting myself in the general managers shoes, I really like the talent that I have in spots 1-9 enough to value them over the competition-driven uncertainty that the Thompsons have are surrounding them. They both could very well be amazing and that honestly wouldn’t surprise me. However, there are enough risks that make me wary of putting them higher on my board. This is where I will roll the dice.

Tier 4

12. Kobe Bufkin, Guard, Michigan

We’re starting Tier 4 off with Kobe Bufkin, who is like diet Cason Wallace in some ways. Painting with a broad brush, they’re both likely 3&D guards who have upside to become more than that. Bufkin has more to do than Wallace in order to hit his high end outcomes. Thus, he slots in a tier below Wallace. However, he’s a great player and projects to be a solid starting guard. 

Bufkin has a September 2003 birthday, which puts him around a lot of the one-and-dones in this class. Despite his thin 6’4, 175 pound frame, Bufkin was one of the better rim finishers in the class. He converted a borderline elite 64 unassisted shots at the rim, per HoopMath. Bufkin also projects to shoot. He shot 35.5 percent from three on 6.4 attempts per 100 and 84.9 percent from the line. These numbers are good on their own, but they’re much better when you see how improved they are compared to Bufkin’s freshman year. He only had a 22.2 3P% on similar per possession volume, albeit in a small sample. I always love to see big freshman to sophomore year shooting jumps from guards. Bufkin’s floater and off the dribble game will be a weapon for him as well.   

The question is whether or not Bufkin is a point guard at the next level. He only averaged 5.1 assists per 100, low for a typical point guard prospect, and he doesn’t have the first step quickness that would allow him to develop his passing faster. However, Bufkin does flash some high level passes. He’d certainly have more assists if he was allowed to play point guard full time. Bufkin can manipulate defenders well and deliver quick passes off a live dribble. As he fills out his frame, expect Bufkin to get a lot better as a passer. 

What gives Bufkin a bit more upside than some other guards down the board is the defense. Both his STL% and BLK% were > 2, which you don’t see too often from 6’4 guards. The shot blocking in particular really surprised me. Bufkin has no fear of getting up and contesting shots at the rim. That willingness to play above his size makes me think Bufkin is more ready to withstand the physicality of the NBA than his frame would otherwise suggest. It also helps that Bufkin stays in front of his man on the ball, navigates screens, and uses his quick hands to force steals. 

Overall, I’m hard-pressed to find a glaring flaw in Bufkin’s game. When an NBA strength program takes care of filling out his frame, the shooting, solid passing, and great defense will make Bufkin a good 3&D guard. As I said before, there’s upside here too. But, you’re betting that Bufkin a) is a true point guard and b) becomes a substantially better functional athlete inside the arc for him to get there. For now, I’m penciling him in as an uber-solid starting guard down the line. 

13. Sidy Cissoko, Wing, G-League Ignite

We’ve officially entered gamble territory, folks. Cissoko has a wide range of outcomes that include not sticking around the NBA and being a championship-quality role player. Once again, I’ll draw from my draft strategy article: 

In most of my public work, I make sure to mention the checklist for the ideal draft prospect, courtesy of the original Stepien group: a 6’6+ player who can dribble, pass, shoot, make decisions, and defend. As a 6’7 wing with an April 2004 birthday, Cissoko reliably demonstrated every single skill in that list except shooting, and I don’t think it’s crazy to project him as a shooter either. 30 percent from three and 64.5 percent from the line does not initially induce optimism. But, closer inspection leads me to believe that Cissoko is going to shoot. The mechanics themselves look a lot more fluid than you would guess, and he even had some cogent flashes of versatile shotmaking in the midrange and from three. When I watch him shoot off movement and hit stepbacks, I can’t help but believe those flashes are going to become more consistent.

The reason why the list of traits mentioned above are often mentioned in the context of star prospects. But, such players often become some of the best role players in the league too. To me, this is Cissoko’s path to success. He is an excellent passer, and even has some live dribble stuff in his arsenal. Cissoko’s AST:TO ratio near two reflects his exceptional feel. He also has a functional handle, and defends wings at a high level. By the way, Cissoko averaged 3.2 stocks per 100 as an 18 year old in the G-League. His non-scoring production (the stuff that tends to matter more anyway) is elite given his age and competition level. 

I know this is one of the more overused comparisons ever, but there’s some Kyle Anderson to Cissoko’s game. Cissoko has some underrated athletic ability, but both are slower high-feel wings who just get stuff done. If Cissoko even shoots passably, he’ll be a huge steal in this draft. 

14. Jett Howard, Wing, Michigan

Jett Howard is a 6’8 wing that can really shoot the ball, having shot 36.8 percent from three on a whopping 13.6 attempts per 100. He also shot an even 80 percent from the line. You do not have to worry about the shooting at the next level. 6’8 wing who can shoot might have you picturing a typical 3&D wing, but we have to seriously worry about the defense component of that formula. 

Howard’s rates of rebounds (8.9 DRB%, 1.0 ORB%), steals (0.8 STL%) are historically low for a wing. If you search for wings of the past who were this bad in these effort-indicating stats, the list is not promising. When you watch Howard play, you can see why these stats were so low. He doesn’t make a lot happen as a team defender, and he gets cooked way too often on the ball. There isn’t really a position or type of athlete that he excels at defending, which is almost unheard of for his size. Howard has serious work to do as a defender, or else he’ll be a serious negative in the NBA. Plenty of people have faded Howard all the way to the 20s or even 30s on their board because of the defense, and I definitely understand why. 

But, we also can’t ignore Howard’s enticing dribble, pass, shoot skill set at 6’8. He has legit prowess off the dribble. He uses ball screens well and makes teams pay when they go under. The mechanics are perfect on every shot type too. I also like how he uses his handle to get to his midrange pull up. I’d like to see him get to the rim a lot more than he does, and I think that he has the handle and stride length to up his game there. Howard is also a good passer. His 1.59 AST:TO ratio is great for a 6’8 wing, and he has enough connective passing skill to function well in an NBA offense. 

Howard is a fascinating mix of enticing strengths and potentially debilitating weaknesses. There are a lot of different ways that his career could go. But, at the end of the day, I have to value a 6’8 wing with a dribble, pass, shoot skillset. Those players don’t grow on trees. If an NBA team can make Howard passable on defense, we’re talking about a really valuable player.

15. Keyonte George, Guard, Baylor

I was really high on Keyonte at the start of the season, and at one point he was fourth on my board before I really dove deep into other prospects. As you can see, I’ve soured on Keyonte quite a bit since then. If everything comes together, I still believe Keyonte can be a great scorer. But, I started to question if the juice was worth the squeeze with Keyonte. He isn’t a true point guard, so he falls into an NBA archetype that’s rife with pitfalls: scoring combo guards. Unless these players can contribute on offense, their impact is usually negligible. There are notably few who have been an integral part of deep playoff runs, as successful teams usually have a bunch of 6’6+ two-way players with perimeter skill contributing to their rotation instead. But, there’s a chance Keyonte makes it all work.

As I’ve said, he’s got the tools to be a great scorer in the league. His off the dribble game looks like it’ll translate, as he creates a ton of space on such shots and has good touch (79.3 FT%). HoopMath charted 28 made unassisted two point jumpers, and an absurd 29 unassisted threes. I’m fine with the low conversion rate of these shots for Keyonte, as volume and touch matter considerably more for freshman prospects. The 2023 guard class is generally poor at getting to the rim, and Keyonte is no different. Only 14.6 of his shots came at the rim, per HoopMath, and 3 dunks on the season doesn’t help Keyonte’s case as a downhill athlete. And yet, Keyonte shot 9.4 FTA per 100 compared to 11.5 2PA. A FTA:2PA ratio above 0.8 is quite rare, but it’s a threshold that many of the best players in the world hit in college. 

Passing-wise, Keyonte has some great flashes of advanced reads, but his sky-high turnover rate of 5.9 per 100 needs to be lowered significantly for a team to feel good about letting Keyonte run a second unit at some point. It’s far more likely that Keyonte has some secondary playmaking responsibilities, but that will come further down the road. 

Defensively, Keyonte competes, and I thought his on-ball defense in particular looked quite good at times. The concern is about whether Keyonte’s athletic ability will translate up a level to quicker NBA guards and wings. If it does, Keyonte might actually have some upside that puts this ranking to shame. If you squint, you can see a CJ McCollum type player here. Unfortunately, the far more likely outcome is that Keyonte becomes a score-only guard who you have to overpay to retain past his rookie deal. That puts him just outside the lottery. 

16. Anthony Black, Guard, Arkansas

Anthony Black is nearly universally loved on draft Twitter and clearly in NBA circles too. Some have Black as high as fourth on their draft boards. It’s not like I don’t see the appeal. Black is 6’6, really athletic off of two feet, slides with ball handlers well on defense, and can pass on offense. His 3.2 STL% and 1.8 BLK% are great numbers for a freshman, as is a whopping 0.578 FTr. However, Black strikes me as a classic jack of all trades, master of none connector prospect that we tend to overrate.

Black likely isn’t a primary ball handler in the NBA, as his rim pressure off the dribble is iffy, and he’s a virtual non-factor shooting off the dribble. Thus, Black likely needs to shoot in order to be a positive NBA player. I’m not sure I trust Black’s jumper enough to bet on the “if he shoots” outcome. His 30.1 3P% and 70.5 FT% aren’t great, and I really don’t trust the touch and mechanics. There’s a chance that teams are content ignoring Black when he’s spotting up for three. When Black is running the offense, teams will try to under him to death until he proves that won’t be a viable strategy. 

I’m sure Black will provide some value as a playmaker, and he has a good chance of being a positive defender in the NBA. But, we have to account for the possibility that Black’s offensive role will be a secondary creator who can’t shoot. Are we sure that his passing is good enough to really hurt defenses if that’s his role? I’m not. I am always willing to bet on smart, defensive-oriented wing sized players with pedigree going back to high school, but there are red flags aplenty here. Thus, the middle of the first round feels right for Black. 

17. Dereck Lively II, Big, Duke

Lively is a traditional center who averaged 5.2 points per game last season at Duke. You read that right. 5.2 PPG. So, we’re not off to a good start here. But, the rest of Lively’s profile mirrors that of many successful bigs in the NBA. Lively blocked 7.2 shots per 100 possessions, corralled offensive rebounds better than anyone in this class (12.4 OREB%), and had a positive AST:TO ratio, having averaged 3.2 assists per 100 to just 2.0 turnovers, a remarkably low number for a big man. Of course, the low turnover numbers were helped by the fact that Lively’s usage on offense was exclusively rim running and offensive rebounds. But, it’s better to have those numbers than not have them!

I want to circle back to the absurd 7.2 blocks per 100. As crazy as it sounds, that might actually be underrating Lively’s rim protection abilities. As the season went on, Lively began to have a Rudy Gobert-esque effect on drivers. Players were terrified to even shoot at the rim when Lively was parked in the paint. Combine that with some hip fluidity and lateral mobility, Lively has legit DPOY upside in his high-end outcomes. 

Additionally, reports from Lively’s pro day said that Lively was making corner threes with ease. The mechanics actually looked pretty good at Duke, so we have to account for an outside chance that Lively becomes a pick and pop threat. If he does, 17 will be wayyyy too low for Lively.

Lively probably ends up being selected in the lottery tomorrow, but I can’t quite get there. I tend to fade traditional centers on my board anyway, and the complete lack of a scoring game scares me on offense. I value the film that I saw of Lively (and one game in person against UVA where he got played off the floor offensively) over pro day reports and workout videos. I don’t want to bank on DPOY upside for a lottery ranking either. If Lively is a positive defender but not an All-Defense guy, that becomes a less enticing proposition. 

18. Colby Jones, Guard, Xavier

Colby Jones is one of my favorites in this class. He’s a 6’5, 200 pound guard who is kind of good at everything. He’s young for a junior, as he only just turned 21, and his per 100 statline is a thing of beauty: 24.5 points, 9.4 rebounds, 7.2 assists (to 3.8 turnovers), 2.1 steals, and 0.9 blocks. Jones also shot 56.3 percent on twos and 37.8 percent from three. 

The jump shot is not a sure thing, as Jones had a career-low 65.8 FT% this past season. However, the mechanics look good off the catch. I trust Jones to drain catch and shoot jumpers in the NBA. If he can do that, there’s an important role for him on offense due to his passing. Jones initiated a lot of offense at Xavier, and he involved his teammates at a high rate. Jones actually eclipsed the AST%:USG% ratio > 1 threshold I discussed earlier with Cason Wallace. 

 Jones projects to hold his own defensively too. He averaged 2.4 steals per 100 for his career at Xavier, and his technique getting into ball handlers and navigating screens is excellent. Off the ball, Jones is keenly aware of man and ball, and his rotations are on-time and disruptive. His smarts and effort on that end should earn him playing time early in his career. 

Athletic concerns and worries about Jones’ jump shot likely drop him into the late first or early second round. But, I love Jones in the top 20. I believe he will shoot, and he’s too smart of a passer and defender to not contribute in the NBA for a while. 

19. Brandin Podziemski, Guard, Santa Clara

Brandin “Air Podz” Podziemski is another fun prospect that teams should be considering starting around pick 15. Athleticism is the obvious concern with Podz. It’s possible that he’s just Nik Stauskas, who was an excellent high-feel shooter in college. He just didn’t meet the athletic threshold required to stick around the NBA. Now that we’ve acknowledged the potential downside, allow me to start gushing about Podz. 

Let’s start with the per 100 stats, an absurd average of 31 points, 13.7 rebounds, 5.7 assists, 2.8 steals, and 0.7 blocks. Podz also shot 43.8 percent from three on 9.0 attempts per 100 and posted an elite 10.7 BPM. For someone with athletic concerns, those steal and rebound rates are really impressive. For me, those numbers reflect Podz’s incredible mind for the game. As I said in my draft strategy article, Podz is so damn smart he’s going to figure out how to contribute one way or another. 

Defensively, Podz will have to be hidden off the ball. He regularly got cooked on the ball, a problem that will only get worse in the NBA. But, as a team defender, Podz competes hard and disrupts much more than you’d expect him to. He makes timely rotations, opportunistically digs down to force steals, and fights through screens to the best of his ability. One thing is for sure: effort won’t hold Podz back on defense. On offense, Podz will continue to shoot the lights out and make high level passing reads as a secondary creator, a la Luke Kennard. His handle should translate enough to snake his way into the lane and hit floaters too, which accounted for many of his 50 unassisted two point makes. 

Like I said, Podziemski has plenty of downside rooted in the fact he might get matchup hunted to death on defense. But, you have to bet on production and impact to the degree Podz has it at a certain point on the board. 

20. Dariq Whitehead, Wing, Duke

Whitehead is an interesting bet, as his role at Duke was pretty much exclusively to knock down catch and shoot threes. He was certainly up for the task, as he shot 42.9 percent from three on 10.4 attempts per 100. The added layers of intrigue with Whitehead come from his high school pedigree (#1 RSCI), and the fact that he doesn’t turn 19 until August 1st. Whitehead was far too turnover prone for his role at 4.1 per 100, and he didn’t do much in the way of advantage creation either. But, a super young 6’6 wing who can shoot? That’s a pretty good starting point. A 2.2 STL% is nothing to sneeze at either. 

The flip side with Whitehead is that he’s completely inept when he walks inside the three point line at this stage of his career. He actually shot worse from two than he did from three, posting an abysmal 41.4 2P%. Another looming issue with Whitehead is the medical situation. Whitehead dealt with a foot injury all of this season, which took away a lot of the athletic ability he showed in high school. Had he been healthy, there’s a chance Whitehead could have shown much more inside the arc. It’s worth noting that he had a second surgery on his foot after the season ended, so I have a hard time making an upside bet on Whitehead predicated on regaining his athleticism. 

Overall, the combination of wing size, youth, pedigree, and shooting will always be intriguing. But, there’s a chance Whitehead has a tough time developing despite those valuable traits. He’s a tough one to pin down. 

21. Bilal Coulibaly, Wing, Metropolitans 92

No prospect experienced a meteoric rise quite like Victor Wembanyama’s teammate Bilal Coulibaly. He went from playing in the French second division to starting alongside Wemby in the French League finals. He wasn’t just ball-watching out there either. Mets 92 trusted Coulibaly to run some pick and roll in this critical setting. The degree of development within the year is unbelievable. The question is: was it enough to make Coulibaly a top prospect? 

The NBA seems to think so, as Coulibaly is unlikely to fall out of the lottery. I have been a little more reserved when moving him up my board. The good with Coulibaly is that he’s 6’8 with a 7’2 wingspan and young, with a July 2004 birthday. He also really fights on defense. I love his ability to navigate screens and stick with ball handlers. The potential to be a menace on the ball is absolutely there. 

Offensively, Coulibaly can handle the ball a bit and his decision making is trending in the right direction. Some have cited Coulibaly’s physical tools as a reason to believe he will develop into a borderline All-Star level creator. Basically, a compounding skills type of proposition. While Coulibaly has some juice, I certainly don’t think it’s on that level. I also don’t trust Coulibaly’s shot. In particular, the touch worries me. He only shot 62.7% from the line, and he had some ugly misses on his pull up, a shot he would need if he’s a creator bet. 

Overall, my instinct is that Coulibaly tops out as an energy wing at the next level. But, if Coulibaly keeps developing at this rate, he could really burn me for ranking him this low. I guess we’ll see.  

22. Brice Sensabaugh, Wing, Ohio St.

As a 6’6, 235 pound freshman, Brice averaged 40.3 points per 100 on an efficient 58.7 TS%. Surely we’re all overthinking this and he should be a consensus top five pick. Well, not so fast. 

While he’s got unbelievable touch, I’m concerned Brice’s athleticism isn’t conducive to being an effective on-ball scorer in the NBA. He isn’t very explosive, and I think he looks stiff in his movement patterns. Normally, we talk about prospects filling out their frame when discussing potential improvements to their functional athleticism. Brice is the opposite. He needs to slim down and gain some quickness and fluidity. 

That stiff movement also affects Brice on defense, where he is a clear negative. I actually question whether or not Brice will play NBA minutes in his first season because of his defense; it’s that bad. His 1.3 STL% and 1.7 BLK% are unremarkable for a wing, and Brice is completely lost as a team defender at this point. He also averaged a staggering 6.7 fouls per 100. Brice’s passing also leaves a lot to be desired. He shows some flashes, but almost two turnovers for every assist tells you all you need to know for the current state of affairs.  

On a much more positive note, Brice has a case for the best shooter in the draft. He shot 40.5% from three on high volume, as well as 83 percent from the line. If nothing else, he’ll provide a lights out stroke from deep. But, it’s likely he’ll provide more than that on offense. You don’t reach the scoring heights Brice did unless you have some tricks up your sleeve. He mastered isolation scoring at the college level, and has one of the best midrange pull ups I’ve seen from a draft prospect. 

Basketball games are won by one team putting the ball through the net more times than their opponent. Brice does that at an elite level. But, the questions about literally everything else keep him outside my top 20. 

Tier 5

At this point in the draft, there are two main types of bets you can make. You can draft someone whose right tail outcome isn’t all that inspiring, but they have a high chance of being a quality rotation player. Conversely, you can swing for the fences on someone who clearly isn’t ready, but there’s just enough to build on such that you might have a decent player down the road. It’s tough to rank these two types alongside each other, so my solution is to split Tier 5 into a few groups, some of which contain safer players and others more risky ones. 

Tier 5a – Preferred Rotation Bets

23. Marcus Sasser, Guard, Houston

If you watched the playoffs this year, you know that successful teams often have 3&D guards start alongside jumbo creators. Sasser projects to fill this role perfectly. He’s a bit short at 6’1, but he has a sturdy 195 pound frame. He uses every ounce of strength he has to bother guys at the point of attack. A 3.2 STL% shows how disruptive Sasser can be. Then there’s the shooting. Sasser shot 38.4% from three on 13.9 attempts per 100 and 84.8% from the line. Sasser has a prolific midrange pull up game he can use too, should defenders run him off the line. Sasser won’t be running pick and roll every possession for you, but his 1.94 shows that you can rely on him to make quality decisions within the flow of the offense. It’s easy to picture Sasser helping a playoff team and playing a decade in the NBA. He’d be a great option for a contender. 

24. Jaime Jaquez Jr., Wing, UCLA

Jaime Jaquez is an older 6’6 wing who is far from a sure thing to shoot. That’s a shaky foundation, but Jaquez has just about everything else you could ask for. He filled up the box score, having averaged 31.9 points, 14.7 rebounds, 4.2 assists, 2.8 steals, and 1.1 blocks per 100. It might not surprise you to know that Jaquez also had a 10.7 BPM. Additionally, Jaquez just has a knack for making the right play. He had a super low 9.9 TOV%, and he is great at putting his teammates in positions to succeed. I like Jaquez’s anticipation as a team defender too. Jaquez also fits brilliantly with any team because of his motor. He’s always diving for loose balls, crashing the glass, and intensely guarding ball handlers. Jaquez is simply a tone setter who will enhance his team on the court as well as in the locker room. If the rumor is true that Miami is locked in on Jaime at 18, I can’t imagine a better fit. 

25. Jordan Hawkins, Guard, UConn

Prospects who play for the national champs have been overrated in the past because they’re labeled as winners. Sometimes the shoe fits, but more often than not scouts anchor that one player to the accomplishments of an entire team. I’m worried that’s what some are doing with Hawkins. That said, this is the best shooter in the draft. His mechanics are picture-perfect and the speed of his release is Klay Thompson-esque. You might want to sit down for these numbers: 38.8 3P% on 15.1 attempts per 100 and an 88.7 FT%. Hawkins isn’t higher on my board because I don’t trust him to do much else at an NBA level. I see Isaiah Joe as a reasonable outcome if Hawkins gets better at weaponizing his gravity to create for others and improves as a team defender. If he’s just a pure shooting specialist, Hawkins could run into some issues deep in the playoffs. But, when the shooting is THIS good, it’s hard to pass on.

Tier 5b – Preferred Raw Prospect Gambles

26. Maxwell Lewis, Wing, Pepperdine 

No prospect has had more of a roller coaster ride on my board this year than Maxwell Lewis. At one point, I was all in. I saw the potential wing shot creator with functional length on defense and budding playmaking. I even wrote about Lewis during the preseason, anticipating that he would be a top 20 guy for me this cycle. Unfortunately, while all the enticing tools were still on display, another year went by where Lewis didn’t put it together. The propensity for turnovers from his freshman year carried over, as he averaged 4.2 of them per 100. But, the real worries come on defense. Lewis has always had incredibly slow hips, which make it impossible to contain ball handlers. But, I had some optimism about him as a team defender. That optimism waned when Lewis’ steal rate dropped to an abysmal 1.1 per 100. To make matters worse, Lewis is older than you’d like for a prospect this raw – he’ll be 21 on NBA opening day. There’s enough to work with that I’ll hold out a little hope that everything comes together and Lewis becomes a two-way shot creating wing. But, he has a long way to go. 

27. Julian Phillips, Forward, Tennessee

People are sleeping on this guy quite a bit! I didn’t really register how good of an athlete Phillips is until the combine when he killed it on the vertical jump. I didn’t pay too much attention to Phillips during the season because I thought of him as a multi-year guy. But, I dove deeper after the combine, and I think we’ve got a fascinating development case to monitor here. An uber-athletic 6’8 wing who got fouled as much as he did (0.615 FTr) and was an advanced defender for a freshman deserves consideration. The shot isn’t as hopeless as his 23.9 3P% suggests either. Phillips shot 82.2 percent from the line last year. Going back a couple years, he shot an eye-opening 37 percent from three in high school and AAU play. Phillips could be a 3&D wing hiding in plain sight, he just needs a patient development staff. 

28. Noah Clowney, Forward, Alabama

Clowney is a tough one because the long term vision for him is to be a stretch four, yet he can’t shoot right now. He only shot 28.3 percent from three and 64.9 percent from the line. The mechanics give people (including me) some hope, though. Clowney shoots a smooth, comfortable ball, and he’s young enough (July 2004 birthday) that the results have time to catch up to the eye test. Even though he’s skinny, Clowney is already a great functional athlete. His gaudy 66.9 2P% and 17.2 rebounds per 100 reflect that. All-in-one metrics love Clowney as well. He posted a 8.3 BPM, and he frequently ranks highly in draft models. Clowney likely needs time in the G-League, but I’ll always approve of betting on functional athleticism and the potential of perimeter skill. 

Tier 5c – Next Rotation Guys Up 

29. Jalen Slawson, Wing, Furman

Yup, I’ve got a 23 year old wing from Furman in my top 30. Talk to the hand. In all seriousness, Slawson is someone I’ve liked since his junior year. His statistical profile is a thing of beauty. At 6’7, 210 pounds, He shot 62.6% from two, 39.4% from three, had a 19.9 AST%, 2.9 STL%, and 5.3 BLK%. Insane. Slawson has always been incredibly smart. He was an elite event creator on defense every year at Furman, and he’s an excellent passer capable of dicing up defenses from the high post and the top of the key. Slawson’s age means he needs to contribute quickly in order to stick in the league, and I’m confident he’ll do just that. What team can’t use a wing who wreaks havoc on defense, makes smart decisions, and can knock down an open shot? There’s no guarantee that Slawson can hang athletically in the NBA. If there was, he’d be much higher on my board. But, I’m betting Slawson will tighten the bolts and improve just as he’s done every year of his career. If Slawson goes undrafted, it would be an absolute steal. 

30. Trayce Jackson-Davis, Big, Indiana

In my draft strategy article, I talked about how Trayce Jackson-Davis is my kind of big man bet in the second round. The bigs who buck the trend of being played off the floor in the playoffs have high positional feel and/or ball screen coverage versatility. Oftentimes, big prospects who fit this mold are available in the second round. Xavier Tillman was that guy in 2021, and Jaylin Williams was in 2022. I had a top 20 grade on Tillman and a top 25 grade on Williams, and both have turned into quality NBA centers. Jackson-Davis falls here to 30 because he’s not super tall and isn’t nearly as switchable as Tillman and Williams. 

His scoring game isn’t super exciting and will exclusively revolve around rim running and getting putbacks. It helps that Jackson-Davis is a great rebounder. But, Jackson-Davis really sets himself apart with his passing. His 24.8 AST% is better than most of the guard prospects in this draft! I love the laser beams Jackson-Davis throws to open shooters out of the post. His quick decision making in the short roll will be an asset too. Defensively, Jackson-Davis has more mobility than he gets credit for. He’ll be system-dependent in the NBA – if you can get him to be a help defender rather than the primary rim protector on defense, good things will happen. It’s not a sexy pick, but Jackson-Davis has a good chance to contribute for a while. 

31. Ben Sheppard, Wing, Belmont

Sheppard is another guy I’ll admit to not taking super seriously until after the combine. Sheppard killed it in the second combine scrimmage, where he showed how helpful his shooting and feel can be for a team. Sheppard shot 41.5 percent from three this past season on 10.2 attempts per 100. The shot itself looks good, and he can get it off in a variety of different movement situations. What’s perplexing about Sheppard’s shooting is the 69.6 FT% for his career. There’s a tug of war between the production from three and the touch indicator at the line, but I trust what I’m seeing in the shot. Sheppard also had an AST:TO ratio comfortably over one and a solid 2.3 STL% to round out his role player profile. Sheppard’s athleticism will be tested on defense in the NBA. He needs to get much stronger, but his anticipation and motor will help him contribute defensively as his frame fills out. Sheppard doesn’t have a lot of upside, but he’s got a good chance to contribute to a rotation within the next couple years.  

32. Kobe Brown, Forward, Missouri

As a 6’7, 250 pound power forward, Kobe Brown scored in volume (30.1 points per 100), was an excellent processor and passer (4.9 assists per 100 to 3.2 turnovers), and defended cerebrally (career 2.5 STL% and 2.4 BLK%). Brown has the size and skill combination to contribute for a long time in the NBA. The lynchpin with Brown is the shot. He had a virtually unprecedented improvement in his 3P%, from 20.6% his junior year to 45.5% last year. His shot looks good, but betting on a one year sample of great shooting from an upperclassman has burned scouts in the past. So, I’m proceeding with caution here. If Brown does shoot, he could be used as an effective stretch four or small-ball five given his strong frame.  

33. Kris Murray, Wing, Iowa

Kris Murray’s twin is Keegan Murray, last year’s fourth overall pick by the Kings. It’s possible that Kris is being mocked in the first based on his relation to Keegan. Personally, I don’t get it with Kris. The shot is far from a guarantee (career 69.9 FT%), and he didn’t stand out in any particular way as a defender. The low turnover rate is nice to see for a wing, but I usually want to see low turnovers in conjunction with a projectable jumper. Kris will also be 23 on opening day. So, if he’s going to iron out the jumper or get better on defense, it needs to happen soon. Murray slots in here because I have to account for the possibility that the jumper is real. A 6’8 wing who can shoot likely sticks around for a while. But, teams shouldn’t draft Kris Murray thinking that they’re getting Keegan.  

Tier 5d – A Couple More Decent Gambles 

34. James Nnaji, Big, Barcelona

As an 18 year old, Nnaji earned minutes for a Barcelona team littered with former NBA players. That’s intriguing enough on its own. Then there’s the physical tools: 7’0 tall, 7’7 wingspan, a chiseled 250 pound frame, a functional vertical, and surprisingly decent mobility. Nnaji used that athleticism to become one of the better shot blockers in the Spanish ACB, posting a 6.4 BLK%. Perhaps more impressively, the BLK% jumped up to 8.2 in his 19 Euroleague games. Offensively, Nnaji will be exclusively used as a rim runner. He doesn’t have a prayer to shoot, and he won’t be trusted to make passing reads. But, Nnaji is a massive lob threat, and I trust that he’ll get some easy buckets because of that. As a stash option, I don’t mind it if a team drafts Nnaji to see where his physical tools can take him. He’s on a great development trajectory, so there could really be something here. 

35. Amari Bailey, Guard, UCLA

There are plenty of reasons not to consider Bailey. His low three point volume and FT% have me skeptical about his shot. Bailey also averaged 5.4 turnovers per 100, dreadful for a non-initiator. But, Bailey is fairly athletic, and I thought he showed some good stuff on defense. His 2.3 STL% and 3.3 DBPM are quite good for a freshman. I don’t like factoring the combine in too much, but Bailey looked much improved as a passer in the scrimmages. If Bailey can pass, defend, and continue to hone his jumper, he could become a rotation guy down the line. 

Tier 6 – The Rest

36. Julian Strawther, Wing, Gonzaga

37. Seth Lundy, Wing, Penn State

38. Jalen Hood-Schifino, Guard, Indiana

39. Nick Smith Jr., Guard, Arkansas

40. GG Jackson, Forward, South Carolina

41. Hunter Tyson, Wing, Clemson

42. Jordan Walsh, Wing, Arkansas

43. Jordan Miller, Wing, Miami (FL)

44. Jalen Pickett, Guard, Penn State

45. Jaylen Clark, Guard, UCLA

46. Adama Sanogo, Big, UConn

47. D’Moi Hodge, Guard, Missouri

48. Craig Porter Jr., Guard, Wichita St

49. Toumani Camara, Wing, Dayton

50. Andre Jackson Jr., Wing, UConn

51. Olivier-Maxence Prosper, Wing, Marquette

52. Tristan Vukcevic, Big, KK Partizan

53. Terquavion Smith, Guard, NC State

54. Isaiah Wong, Guard, Miami (FL)

55. Ricky Council IV, Guard, Arkansas

56. Azuolas Tubelis, Big, Arizona

57. Mohamed Gueye, Forward, Washington St.

58. Landers Nolley III, Wing, Cincinnati

59. Mike Miles Jr., Guard, TCU

60. Jalen Wilson, Wing, Kansas

61. Rayan Rupert, Wing, NZ Breakers

62. Omari Moore, Guard, San Jose State

63. Justyn Mutts, Forward, Virginia Tech

64. Tosan Evbuomwam, Forward, Princeton

65. Chris Livingston, Wing, Kentucky

66. Liam Robbins, Big, Vanderbilt

67. Colin Castleton, Big, Florida

68. Kendric Davis, Guard, Memphis

69. Alex Fudge, Wing, Florida

70. Caleb McConnell, Wing, Rutgers

71. Sir’Jabari Rice, Wing, Texas

72. Taylor Funk, Forward, Utah St

73. Jacob Toppin, Forward, Kentucky

74. Charles Bediako, Big, Alabama

75. Deshawndre Washington, Wing, New Mexico St

76. Drew Timme, Big, Gonzaga

77. Oscar Tshiebwe, Big, Kentucky

78. Emoji Bates, Wing, Eastern Michigan

79. Mojave King, Guard, G-League Ignite

80. Leaky Black, Wing, UNC

The post Michael Neff’s 2023 Big Board appeared first on Swish Theory.

Whether or not I agree with that decision is another question entirely. What is important to me is that Golden State uses this pick to maximize the current roster, whether that means packaging it in a trade or taking a player they can project a role for. Evaluating these draft options goes beyond just the talent of the player. Some players I would love at 19 in a vacuum would be bad fits for the roster or the timeline, whereas others who have later first-round or early second-round must be considered at 19 because of polish and need.

We’ll go through this draft at every position, seeing who in range makes sense and who Golden State should avoid. Most importantly, we will explore the why. I will also add a prospect at each position that would be a home run if they slide to 19, and some second-round options if the Warriors explore a drastic trade back or buy their way into the second round. I’m not going to cover any trade-up options here: if you watched last year and thought this team could use another high-stakes 19-year-old, I cannot help you.

Guard

Stop The Fall: Cason Wallace, Kentucky and Nick Smith Jr., Arkansas

I’m not going to say anything about these two prospects that will hold a candle to what Tyler Wilson of this very same site wrote on the two early this week, so if you want to learn more about the two, this is prerequisite reading.

If the Warriors find themselves anywhere close to drafting either of these two, they will be extremely lucky. Especially if Cason Wallace is the pick. Despite being a one-and-done, he’s incredibly polished on both ends of the floor. Doing so as a combo guard is very impressive. He can function on and off the ball offensively, showing the skills to be a reliable playmaker with the athleticism and shooting potential to be a weapon in the motion offense.

The defense speaks for itself: he has the athleticism, motor, and production to back up the film. His 3.8 dBPM ranked fifth amongst all freshmen regardless of position last season, and 3 of the 4 above him are first-round caliber bigs. Pairing that sort of defensive impact with an offensive game that lacks any glaring weakness screams immediate contributor.

Nick Smith Jr. isn’t as much of a strong bet on the defensive end as Cason, but the offensive upside is tantalizing. A lights-out shooter with deep range in high school and the EYBL circuit, nagging knee and wrist injuries prevented him from showing his full scoring and playmaking prowess at Arkansas. He’s electric off the dribble when healthy, and shows the kind of hustle necessary to add some defensive impact in the long term. I wouldn’t be sprinting to the podium as I would be for Cason, but a brisk jog would do just fine.

Pass: Kobe Bufkin, Michigan

A young returning sophomore, Bufkin is flying up draft boards after his athletic testing matched the run he went on late in the season. It’s the perfect storm for an eyebrow-raising draft day rise. But even if he were available at 19, I don’t think Bufkin fits this Warriors roster as well as the previous guards.

He doesn’t have the bankable defense or consistent on-ball playmaking that Cason Wallace brings to the table, and I don’t think he brings the same kind of offensive upside you get from Nick Smith Jr. In theory, he fits as a combo guard off the bench, but I’m not sure if there is a bankable skill that will keep him in Steve Kerr’s lineup. Let a team with a longer leash and lower expectations figure out his game.

Draft: Keyonte George, Baylor

If Golden State stands to lose Donte DiVincenzo in free agency, Keyonte George would make for an excellent and more controllable replacement.

Despite pedestrian shooting numbers on the surface, George should be a great (if not elite) shooter off the dribble and catch at the next level. He oozes natural tough, and can easily shoot it out to 28-29 feet at all kinds of funky angles. Look no further than this:

He also has a penchant for creating long twos in isolation, a strong sign of his overall creation upside. He has the juice to attack closeouts to start and makes good passing decisions to boot, profiling as a strong secondary creating/shooting guard next to Jordan Poole off the bench. Though George is not the most technically sound in terms of on and off ball defense, he has an in-your-face demeanor and hustle that keeps his opponents unsettled. Another effort guy to bother tough bench matchups and take things off Poole’s defensive plate would be a huge add.

Draft: Jalen Hood-Schifino, Indiana

This might be my favorite fit for the Warriors at any position.

Hood-Schifino plays with a game well beyond his years. A methodical ballhandler and incredible passer, he’s a strong defender on the ball and from a team perspective. Shooting was a major concern going into his freshman season, but he did a lot to quell those concerns with a 38% mark on above-the-break threes, the closest equivalent to NBA range. If the shooting is real, he becomes a lot harder to leave open, opening up his superb downhill game.

JHS would be able to carve out a fine role even if the shooting doesn’t climb to average or above average. His ability to make plays at his size is uncanny, and he makes up for the lack of explosion on his drives with plenty of dribble craft and finishing skill. He’s got a pretty smooth pull-up jumper at 6’6″, and fits the profile of a secondary creating combo guard with real point guard upside. This kind of polished two-way guard game in a young guard is rare, and Golden State should jump on the opportunity to pair him with Jordan Poole.

Second-Round Buy: Marcus Sasser, Houston

If Golden State addresses another position at 19 or trades out of the pick entirely, they should heavily consider buying into the top of the 2nd round for Marcus Sasser.

A four-year player at Houston, Sasser brings production, experience, and a winning pedigree to whichever team is lucky enough to have him. The ability to defend all manners of guard, whether they are quick, strong, or just blazing fast, is a huge asset. Just enjoy this minute plus of Sassy (lmk lmk) getting after it on defense:

Not only is the defense very strong and highly projectable, but there is more meat on the bone offensively than most would think. The outside shooting by itself would give him offensive utility, but Sasser has shown he can create for himself and looks comfortable doing it. Per Barttorvik, Sasser hit 40% of his long twos with 77.5% coming from self-created situations. This is a huge sign for his isolation and second-side potential, and a big add for a team desperate for secondary and tertiary creation. He also made a solid 64% of his shots at the rim with 81.5% (!!!) unassisted. Sasser LOVES getting to his step-back jumper, especially when attacking closeouts, and it is a thing of beauty.

A great fit next to Jordan Poole, another hard-nosed perimeter defender, and a strong shooter with creation juice. Oh, and he’s not a teenager. Sign me up.

Second-Round Buy: Ricky Council IV, Arkansas

If I write anything about Ricky Council IV without including his sickening dunk reel, what is the point?

Council has a case for the best athlete in the class not named Thompson, Henderson, or Wembanyama. Not only is he explosive, a ridiculous leaper, and wildly strong for a guard, he has the functional athleticism that I tend to fall for. Council IV is ambidextrous, and leverages this hand-eye talent into some really strong handle and passing flashes:

The shooting is a major question mark: he has a quick motion and solid form, but a very low release point that I don’t think will translate at the next level unless he can raise it to better counter closeouts. Even if the shooting is a concern, the sheer dominance in transition and off the drive will bring plenty of offensive value. He has shown the chops to cut and move as needed, and could fill a super-GP2 role for the Dubs with some off-the-dribble juice as a bonus.

I’m also in love with the defense. Council IV has quick footwork, moves his hips well, and shows a strong blend of aggression and technical soundness that matches the athletic tools.

I’m also just pro-Hog. Any player Eric Musselman touches, the Warriors should try to get their hands on. And he’s certainly not the last Arkansas player we will be discussing.

Guard Wrap-Up

The strongest and deepest position in the draft, the Warriors should have several options on the board if they decide to go guard, or try to buy in later. There are several players I had to leave out for the sake of brevity as well. It feels likely Jordan Poole will have a new bench running mate in the backcourt after today.

Wing

Stop The Fall: Leonard Miller, G-League Ignite

Once again, I have nothing to say beyond what the brilliant people of our Swish Theory staff have already said. You need to read this debut article by our own Avinash Chauhan.

Are you done? Good. If you’re lying, think about what you have done before we move on.

Miller is a bit of a double-down on the Jonathan Kuminga experiment: a recent starter by basketball standards, Miller jumped from obscurity into dominating one of the best leagues in the world. The frame and athleticism are crazy, and even though the shot is a major problem area, Miller can drive and slash as good as any nearly 7-foot wing. I think this is the most project like player I would want Golden State taking. The physical tools and rim pressure potential are just too good to pass up. Even if it creates some early headaches, this could be the backup wing solution for years to come. No matter where Miller goes tonight, it will be too low. Find a way to get this man to the Bay.

Draft: Brice Sensabaugh, Ohio State

On a different end of the spectrum for wings is Brice Sensabaugh. He’s like Ball Don’t Stop met with a gamma radiation incident and grew legs, started to walk, and began getting some damn buckets.

Deep shooting range, touch, an ability to hit shots off bizarre footwork patterns, and a damn good handle. At 6’6″, Brice is a ready-made scoring forward for the NBA, and could contribute at all three levels. The scoring prowess by itself is enough to get him a rotation spot on a Warriors team that, as we have mentioned, is starved for self-creation at all positions.

Outside of pure buckets, Sensabaugh put up solid rebounding numbers, which helps bring up a defensive game that is lacking in relation to his wing contemporaries in this class. He’s smart, physically coordinated, and has good size. It’s not out of the realm of possibility that Brice becomes a passable wing defender and can bring help from a team perspective.

Sensabaugh would be an instant shot of life for the bench offense, taking some burden off Jordan Poole and giving them a potentially elite catch-and-shoot option/closeout attacker. The need is there for the Warriors, and Sensabaugh can slide right in at the 3.

Pass: Jett Howard, Michigan

This is another case of “love the prospect, hate the fit”. Howard came in as a highly touted prospect to Michigan, but his one-and-done season was arguably a disappointment. The size is great and the shooting/creating potential is evident, but there are lots of other concerns that override that potential for me.

Don’t get me wrong: the shooting range and handle are very real, and he has shown some really strong passing chops. You can see it jump off the screen every time Howard plays.

The main concern for me is that this is the exact player Steve Kerr is not inclined to play. Just look at Patrick Baldwin Jr., who had an absolute strap and could contribute on the glass, and found himself at the end of the bench the whole season. Yes, Howard has far more on-ball offensive potential, but he’s as close to a zero on the glass as you can be for a 6’8″ combo forward. He’s also not an event creator defensively, making it an even tougher proposition that he would get instant playing time.

Furthermore, I feel that Howard’s offensive game is too perimeter-reliant. He wasn’t good at using his handle and frame to create trips to the line, giving him a low floor for each game offensively. If the shot isn’t falling, the playmaking suffers, and all the warts really start to show. If this wasn’t a team trying to compete for a fifth championship, I’d be more in on Howard as a fit, but he is just as likely to sink a roster spot for the first couple of seasons as he is to contribute to the rotation. That’s not a risk Golden State can take right now.

Draft: Kris Murray, Iowa

Yes. That is my answer to Kris Murray, Golden State Warrior.

Though not as polished as his brother Keegan, who had an outstanding rookie season in Sacramento, Kris brings ready-made shooting, touch, and knowledge of his own game. Not the biggest or most athletic, I’m always impressed with his awareness of his own skillset and abilities. You rarely see Kris attempt a play he cannot finish; he knows his limitations, and is excellent as working within those confines. More of a functional athlete than an explosive one, Kris is still capable of rocking the rim when he gets going.

What I appreciate the most about his game is the defense. He’s incredible at moving his feet, keeping the right arms up, staying vertical when rotating, and picking out the right spots to move and use his frame. This clip right here is the basic sell on his defense: responsibility, activity, and staying out of trouble spots:

Murray could be a solid weak-side rotator who poses a challenge when switched out on the perimeter with his footwork skill. He’s certainly not going to be the defender that breaks the defense, and that is a very valuable trait considering the defensively sound bigs and wings the team currently possesses. Of all prospects in this class (save one we have yet to discuss), he’s the best bet to crack Steve Kerr’s rotation and contribute immediately.

Pass: Maxwell Lewis, Pepperdine

In a similar vein to Jett Howard, there are just too many short and long-term concerns to justify the Warriors taking on a project like Maxwell Lewis. He’s a great prospect in his own right, there is no doubt about that. But considering the state of the roster, it’s just a poor fit for both sides.

Lewis has tons of offensive potential as a movement shooter with good on-ball skills, and has shown some passing/handle flashes to boot. He could stand to add some weight, but the 6’7″ lengthy frame would be ideal at the 3 spot. Unfortunately, there are serious athletic concerns that give me pause about the risk-reward. The foot speed and technical skills on the defensive end are lacking, and he’s not great at flipping his hips in quick succession to deal with side-to-side dribbles. Footwork was the calling card for Moses Moody two drafts ago as a way to make up for athletic limitations, and his defense has hardly panned out to date. I’m even more doubtful of Lewis’ impact on that end.

Even if he finds a niche taking on guard assignments defensively, it’s a tough proposition to get him in the lineup. There’s no ignoring the talent and potential, but how long he takes to get there should have the Warriors looking elsewhere.

Second-Round Buy: Julian Strawther, Gonzaga

A junior coming out of Gonzaga, I have been dreaming about Strawther in a Warriors jersey since his freshman year in Spokane.

At 6’7″, Strawther is one of the more prolific shooters in the entire draft. He built on a strong first two seasons of catch-and-shoot ball with an elite season from deep, hitting 40.5% of his 195 attempts from deep. Just look at the above-the-break marks for this season and you can see elite NBA shooting potential:

His 3-point and free throw marks have gone up in all three years, and with his penchant for getting to the line when attacking closeouts, the scoring floor is really strong for an off-ball wing. It helps that he has limitless confidence and ice in his veins that would put D’Angelo Russell to shame.

He’s no playmaker or major rim threat, but plays a perfect shooting wing role. On the defensive end, there is work to do. When going up against NBA-level talent, he looks well behind the curve. This game against Pepperdine (and Maxwell Lewis) brought serious concerns to light:

Strawther has made up for this lack of defensive prowess in recent years with strong defensive rebound numbers for a perimeter guy, and I think he has the overall feel to be a decent rotational defender. Whether or not he can get stops on the perimeter is a huge question, but when you’re going for second-round guys, you have to take the good with the bad.

And my God is there some good in that strap on his shoulder.

Second-Round Buy: Jordan Walsh, Arkansas

The polar opposite of Julian Strawther in almost every sense, Walsh screams late-second defensive steal.

Yet another Razorback on this list, you can make a real argument that Walsh is the most well-rounded wing defender of the entire class. Physical tools, foot/hip speed, technically sound, strong in rotation and communication, he truly has it all.

It seems likely that Jonathan Kuminga will be traded elsewhere over role concerns, leaving a defensive hole in the bench wing group. Walsh can fill that and more. If Golden State can add more guard creation to take things off Jordan Poole’s plate, Walsh slots right in as the defensive specialist off the bench to put the clamps on all guard and wing matchups.

Nobody is going to confuse him for a 3-and-D guy anytime soon: there are very few indicators that he can develop a strong jumper at the next level. The pull-up twos can be rough and he’s a middling free throw shooter in addition to the 27.8% mark from deep. But he oozes athletic potential, and even a low-30s three point mark could open up the lane on closeouts, where he gets to flash his powerful strides and ridiculous wingspan.

It’s not the biggest upside play you’ll find in this draft, but you would be hard-pressed to find a 20-year-old that Steve Kerr would be more willing to play. A Gary Payton II/Jordan Walsh bench unit would be nails against opposing bench scorers.

Wing Wrap-Up

The talent in this group will really dry up by the time the Warriors are on the clock, but there is plenty to look at later in the draft. I debated heavily over adding Jaylen Clark, Amari Bailey, Sidy Cissoko, and Andre Jackson Jr. to the list, which speaks to the depth of wings once you get past the lottery. There will be options aplenty if Mike Dunleavy is looking for him, but there are certainly some land-mine projects they have to avoid stepping on.

Big

Stop The Fall: Dereck Lively II, Duke

Close your eyes and picture the perfect Warriors starting center. Don’t get caught daydreaming about Kevon Looney (which I am guilty of): think about the ideal frame, skillset, and strengths to fit their mold. What you are picturing is exactly what Dereck Lively II brings to the table.

Leading the country in defensive BPM last season, Lively II is one of the best shot-blocking prospects in recent memory. He erased a whopping 12.8% of shots when he was on the floor, placing him third in the country; the entire rest of the top five is comprised of seniors, while Lively II is a true freshman. Dereck is also just a silly vertical threat on offense, with a massive catch radius for lobs and tips that makes him a menace in the restricted area.

There is also some reason to think his natural touch will expand over time. A 3/21 mark on long twos and threes doesn’t scream future floor spacer, but he could gradually turn into a midrange threat that can hit a corner three every once in a while. Even if his offensive game is limited to within 3-5 feet of the basket, he’s the perfect dunker spot threat for this offense. If the screening develops, he’s damn good on the roll. He posted an 86% finishing mark on the roll with Duke, and though the volume isn’t there he can fill his offensive role to a T in Steve Kerr’s offense.

Controlling the glass and dominating the paint on both ends, Lively II could walk in and be a plus backup to Kevon Looney, and a more than capable starter if the team needs an extra vertical threat. This would be a home run in terms of talent, need, and fit for both team and player. I need it.

Draft: James Nnaji, Barcelona

There is a real dearth of bigs in the first round after Wembanyama and Lively II go off the board, but talent is out there. Though less polished than Lively II, James Nnaji fits in Golden State for all the same reasons.

He’s a prolific shot blocker, smart paint defender, and serious vertical threat around the cup. Being that good in Europe as an 18 year old bodes very well for his future, as the offensive environment is much more similar to NBA pace and spacing compared to the NCAA.

There is also a clear upside here for Golden State to tap into. He’s had flashes with the ball in his hands, and has shown the atlheticism and footwork necessary to guard out to the perimeter on pick-and-roll. Even if he’s mostly a drop big in this system, the ability to switch up coverages and keep the offense on their toes will be a major asset if it develops. He’ll need to rebound at a higher level than previously shown to make a true impact, but Nnaji could hold down a rotational center spot before his rookie contract is up if he can stay healthy.

Second-Round Buy: Trayce Jackson-Davis, Indiana

You want an instant rotation big in this draft? Look no further than TJD.

If he somehow manages to make it past the Nuggets and their bevy of picks (he is reportedly a main target for Denver), Golden State needs to blow up the phones trying to buy a pick. TJD is smart, experienced, athletic, and immensely talented on offense. He will be a positive force on the glass at both ends, more than holds his own with paint defense, and would be a dribble handoff maestro in this offense. A true center who can put the ball on the deck and make extra passes is something they have not had in this Warriors era, and it would be a match made in heaven on the offensive side of the ball.

Big Wrap-Up

The bigs are certainly shallower in this class, but Golden State could still find themselves with a ready-made contributor if they play their cards right. There are a couple of home runs here in my eyes, and though unlikely, Dereck Lively II might be the best fit for them in the entire draft. Keep an eye on a trade up to snag him.

Putting a Bow On Things

You probably saw several themes emerging in this article: target potential contributors, avoid long-term projects, but don’t be afraid to capitalize on massive upside if it falls right in your lap. It seems clear after the Chris Paul trade that Golden State will hang onto this pick and look to add reliable depth, but you never know with this front office. A few years down the line, this could be a pick that makes or breaks the end of this championship window. No pressure.

The post Draft Day: Golden State Warriors Guide appeared first on Swish Theory.

The OTE league has six teams made up of primarily high school-aged prospects. The organization has plenty of talent, but the best players that Amen and Ausar (who turned 20 in January) faced up against this season were 18 and 19 years old. This muddies the waters with how valuable their counting stats and film are from this season. I won’t sit here and act like OTE was the highest-quality hoop that I’ve watched. But the good in all this? Amen and Ausar did what they had to do on the court. Their team, the City Reapers, went 14-1 en route to an OTE Championship. Ausar led the league in +/- at +297, and Amen finished second at +285. Somoto Cyril finished third at a distant +172. 

During the pre-season, the twins traveled to Europe for a few exhibition games. They also faced a tough Omaha Blue Crew team in The Basketball Tournament in July 2022, suiting up against some former High Major stars in Marcus Foster and Admon Gilder. The dominance wasn’t quite as sheer (each mustered up just 9 points versus the Blue Crew), but the twins were the two best athletes on the floor during every pre-season game in which they appeared. Amen, in particular, was all over the place defensively, recording 5 steals and 4 blocks versus Mega Bemax and 3 steals and 2 blocks during The Basketball Tournament. There were flashes of brilliance from both. There were also some poor shooting games. 

Aspiring prospects have been making the jump from the NCAA to the pros for decades. The same can’t be said for OTE’s players. There is no frame of comparison that we can look to when projecting these two bright stars to the next level. That has to be scary as hell for NBA front offices. Brandon Miller recording an 11.0 BPM, Jarace Walker having an 8.4% stock rate, and Grady Dick shooting 40.3% from three on 10 attempts/100 as freshmen all give teams comfort. So what do we do with the Thompsons? 

I want to focus on what Amen and Ausar bring to the table. What have they put on tape? It’s easy to flip discussions surrounding their prospect-hood into the “they didn’t play any real competition!” thing. But reducing the conversation to this diminishes the incredible feats that each twin is capable of executing on the basketball court. 

Amen

This play encapsulates how special of an athlete Amen Thompson is. The first step out of the initial spin move is explosive. He goes from having his man up in his grill to holding about 6 feet of separation in the blink of an eye. After snaking the screen, he starts his second spin move, covering a lot of ground with his strides and landing outside the restricted area. And somehow, after finishing his spin, Amen loads up and elevates for a dunk? Where his head is nearly at the rim? Jumping off of two feet in a tight area? 

The craziest aspect of this play is how effortless he makes it look. There are very, very few humans on planet Earth athletic enough to pull a maneuver like this off, and Amen does it without sweating. 

With his acceleration, Amen is a threat to get both feet in the paint whenever he has the ball in his hands. Most importantly, he’s capable of winning with simplicity. He doesn’t have to string together a bunch of moves to generate a quality advantage, which is the way it should be against pre-professional competition. He doesn’t lack a deceptive handle – he just isn’t overly reliant upon it. Here he gets a switch, and all it takes is a simple right-left cross to get his man stumbling into next week. He finishes with an uncontested dunk hopping off his right rather than both feet this time around. 

Amen’s handle isn’t the tightest, sometimes losing control of the ball or getting stripped on digs. It’s something that will need to improve at the next level, but he has a little bit of a longer leash since the burst is so damn special. It’s rare to find players that can change direction at full speeds while getting to the rim. Stuff like the clip below is reserved for the Jaden Iveys and Ja Morants of the world, guards who Amen has 3-4 inches on. 

Once Amen gets downhill, he has a nice bag of scoring tricks. His hang-time is absurd, capable of floating in the air for what feels like an eternity and contorting his body to finish at difficult angles. He uses both hands, often going to a lefty reverse when driving to his right. He isn’t perfect. Occasionally he’ll drive into a crowded paint and force up a difficult look or leave his feet too far away from the cup and try to out-muscle rim protectors. But still, his size, body control, and athleticism give him access to finishing windows that are unavailable to others. He’s also developed into a foul magnet, an encouraging improvement from last season. In 2021-22, his free throw rate across all competitions was .296. This past year, he improved to a whopping .438. 

Part of what makes Amen so appealing as a slasher is that he doesn’t merely drive to score. He constantly looks to get his teammates involved. A lot of the reads he makes seem pretty simple. 1) Blow by man. 2) Draw help at the rim. 3) Kick to the corner or dump off to the dunker spot. 1) Gets a step on his opponent. 2) Draws help in the gap. 3) Finds a teammate one pass away. He’s a 6’7” walking paint touch – many of these windows are going to be big and seemingly obvious, but Amen being able to capitalize on them is super encouraging. 

In his 20 OTE games, he averaged 6.8 assists per game. I don’t think it’s crazy to dub him the best passer in this class, and he balances his scoring and playmaking well. The vision is there, picking out cutters and hitting them off a live dribble. He’s excellent at manipulating defenders with his eyes, and his deliveries are unique. Amen is a rampant jump passer, which gets him into trouble at times. But he hangs in the air for so long that he’s usually able to figure out a plan. Transition is another area where he makes his presence felt as a passer, constantly looking for hit-ahead opportunities. 

Here, he gets doubled with his back to the basket and zips a cross-court skip pass to the corner. That is some mesmerizing accuracy and vision. 

Let’s get to the elephant in the room: the jumper. To put it bluntly, Amen’s 3-ball does not go in often. Two seasons ago, he shot 22.0% from three and 52.6% from the foul line. Combining the OTE season stats and his pre-season games, he went 25.3% from three and 68.0% from the line, upping his volume from 2.0 to 2.9 attempts per game. Improvement! It may not seem like much, but Amen has made real strides with his jumper. It’s less of a push shot than it was a year ago, and the right leg kick/spread eagle is less pronounced on his spot-ups. Still, the ball comes out as a line drive. 

Amen’s shot is far from a sure thing, and getting him to even a league-average level will take time and energy. The big question is, how much will his shooting hold him back? I don’t think the “defenses will be able to ignore him” answer is correct. Teams can go under screens against him, but Amen can use that space and accelerate into the paint. I think issues arise if he finds himself in a stagnant offense, standing around off-ball. In that situation, his presence could muck up spacing and seriously harm an offense. 

The pull-up middy is perhaps a bit more attainable on his rookie contract and is a shot he’ll need to have if he is to hit a true superstar outcome. There are encouraging blips of using his change-of-pace and snaking screens to get to his spots. The strange leg kick certainly should be cleaned up. 

While it isn’t a consistent shot in his bag yet, Amen still manages to find ways to win as a creator without it versus lower-level competition. Below, he decelerates to create separation. Rather than pulling up, he eats up that space and creates a laydown window. 

Defense in the OTE is difficult to evaluate. Amen is aggressive in help, constantly looking for opportunities to create turnovers. There are moments where his length and speed allow him to blow up passing lanes. But this approach doesn’t always pay off. He too often finds himself out of position. He covers ground incredibly well, but sometimes the closeouts are too long. Other times he just doesn’t close out at all or completely loses track of his man. 

His generational vertical athleticism translates to the defensive end of the floor, as Amen is one of the best shot-blocking wings/guards in this class. His vertical pop off of two feet is absurd and allows him to smother shots. Look at this possession from The Basketball Tournament, where he slides with his man before shooting up like a rocket ship to stuff a lay-up attempt. 

And here he is defending a two-on-one in transition, somehow tracking the ball and elevating to block this shot directly after turning. There is a lot to clean up here, but if Amen can cut down on the gambling, there is a path to him being a value-adding defensive player. 

Ausar

Again – the OTE is a difficult place to scout defense, but I love what I’ve seen from Ausar on that end of the floor. He has some of the best hands I’ve ever evaluated. He starts this possession with some nice sliding to force his man baseline and converts to low-man mode after the offense resets. The moment the dump-off comes, Ausar deflects the ball and forces a turnover. Honestly, this is far from a perfect defensive possession. He’s playing pretty upright and is ball-watching, but he somehow manages to locate the ball and swipe down in an instant. 

There are more technically sound defensive possessions to show from Ausar. This is absolutely hounding defense, moving his feet, prying at the ball, and making life hell for the opposing ball-handler. He finishes by helping at the nail and manhandling his way into a steal. 

Ausar makes his presence felt as a shot-blocker too, with the length to slide and engulf layups and the feel to rotate and protect the rim from the weak side. Watch the hands in the first clip of the compilation below, forcing a tie-up without fouling before swatting the rim attempt away. And look at him soar for that ridiculous transition block. 

Jumpiness is an improvement point. Ausar can get overambitious on closeouts and jump on up-fakes.

With how unique and well-rounded of an athlete Amen is, it’s easy to forget that Ausar is a 40+ inch vertical guy in his own right. He doesn’t have the same raw first-step burst or contortion abilities of his brother, but who does? Ausar’s cutting athleticism pops off the screen. He has excellent timing, explodes into gaps well, and is a powerful two-footed leaper that can get his head to the rim without any problems. He has great anticipation on the offensive glass and pounces when his man’s head is turned in the wrong direction. 

It seems that Ausar has been pitched as the “off-ball” twin. This isn’t necessarily the case, as Ausar has received plenty of creation reps with the OTE. Ausar isn’t as blessed athletically as his brother, but he is capable of getting downhill off the bounce. However, he doesn’t create advantages with as much simplicity as Amen. He can string together some nice dribble combos to get by his man, but he loses control of the ball now and then, and his standstill burst is merely good rather than outstanding. Because of these factors, Ausar finds himself stuck in the in-between areas with no place to go but tough leaner-ville.

Ausar is also one of the best passers from the wing in this class. Because the advantages he creates aren’t as obvious, he doesn’t have access to every window. But he’s capable of executing simple drives and kicks and hitting the roller or popper as a ball-screen handler. His lobs to cutters and bombs in transition are notably accurate. I mean, this is about as accurately placed as a full-court as you’ll ever see.

The vision isn’t always consistent. Here, he drives baseline, jumps, and misses a wide-open teammate under the basket. 

Ausar’s yearlong shooting numbers are worrisome. 28.3% on 4.4 attempts/game with a 65.3 FT% is pretty rough across all competitions, but I don’t think the shot is broken. He has some of the lower body kick-out issues of Amen, but it isn’t as pronounced. Ausar showed growth as the season progressed. In nine games from January 1st onwards, he shot 33.8% from deep and 76.1% from the foul line. The sample is small of course, but it’s encouraging that he improved over the year. In 5 OTE playoff games, Ausar shot 38.5% from three on 7.8 attempts/game. The volume bump there is the most notable for me, as he looked far more comfortable firing versus unders and shooting over contests off the catch. 

Ausar has flashed some impressive shot-making off the bounce as well. His high release point allows him to shoot over contests, and he flows from dribble into shot more smoothly than you’d expect. 

In Sum

Amen is one of the most fascinating creator prospects I’ve ever encountered, a rim pressure maven with size, unmatched run/jump/change-of-pace athleticism, and a preternatural feel for the game. He’s the rare lead perimeter initiator who may genuinely provide defensive value. It feels absurd for someone with strengths as strong as his to fall outside of the top 3. 

Ausar has the chance to be a big-time NBA wing defender – someone who can make life difficult for the Tatums and Lukas of the world while also bringing value away from the ball. Offensively, there’s a wide range of outcomes here. Is the shooting bump real? How gravitational can the pull-up become? Ausar has the handle and passing chops to provide secondary or tertiary creation value, but where the shot lands will dictate how much value he provides in that role.

Maybe the OTE context scares you. Maybe the jumpers scare you. But man, I have a hard time viewing the twins as anything but elite NBA prospects. These are guys with the potential to be real difference-makers at the next level, players who can be core pieces on contending rosters. 

The post Making Sense of the Thompson Twins appeared first on Swish Theory.

I wanted to look at how the four prospects associated most with Detroit fit alongside the current roster. Those would be Houston forward Jarace Walker, UCF forward Taylor Hendricks, Overtime Elite forward Ausar Thompson, and Villanova forward Cam Whitmore. For the purposes of this exercise, the roster heading into the draft and free agency is as follows:

Guards: Cade Cunningham / Jaden Ivey / Alec Burks / Killian Hayes

Wings: Bojan Bogdanovic / Isaiah Livers

Bigs: Jalen Duren / Isaiah Stewart / Marvin Bagley III / James Wiseman 

Potential Departures: RJ Hampton, Eugene Omoruyi, Hamidou Diallo, Cory Joseph, Rodney McGruder, Buddy Boeheim, Jared Rhoden

Obviously, wing is the position of need and the only one that the team has yet to address in the draft process since Troy Weaver has taken over. Three of the four prospects they are rumored to be interested in would fit. 

So, naturally, we will start on the other end. This will work as me asking Charlie about what each prospect brings to the team and then I will assess further from the on-court product we have seen over the last few seasons. 

Jarace Walker

The DMV native brings a lot of what Detroit basketball has always been about. He is a defensive force and a solid playmaker. As the team looks to compete for the play-in this season, improving on the defensive end is imperative. For everything Pistons fans have loved about Isaiah Stewart, Walker is likely a better version of that. However, therein lies the fit questions.

Question: Charlie, Walker is a dog. He would fit in any era of this franchise, but the current fit is questionable. Is there a world where he can play on the wing or alongside two of the three of Isaiah Stewart, Jalen Duren, and/or James Wiseman?

Answer: I think Detroit could view Jarace Walker as a missing puzzle piece for multiple reasons. Jalen Duren is the long-term starter at the 5 and plays some excellent defense in addition to controlling the glass. But he cannot shoulder the load and develop at the same time. The two would benefit each other greatly, switching between tough assignments and knowing they have extra protection when put into offensive actions. 

I think he also brings a lot of order to the roster, and the vision of this team. Troy Weaver loves bigs, and is willing to sacrifice spacing for rebounding, defense, and transition prowess. Jarace profiles as an immediate starter, and gives them a chance to see what a Stewart/Wiseman frontcourt looks like for the bench. They can mix-and-match with this group as needed, bringing the flexibility Monty Williams would love to have with a young roster.

I don’t really think Jarace can do enough offensively to be a 3 next to two of those others, unfortunately. You can overcome two non-shooting bigs with effective cutting, screening, and a large offensive rebounding margin, but three really puts clamps on the offensive playmakers. He certainly can fit defensively if the offensive skills come around, but I wouldn’t be counting on it.

This is a pretty valid point in Walker’s favor that I had not previously considered. Much of the previous iteration of this roster was perpetuated on a two-big system that would be available both in the starting rotation and the bench. Walker bringing a better version of the Stewart game means that not only can they regularly run two bigs, but the system will remain unchanged. 

Defensive versatility would be the calling card here and would necessitate looking for shooting elsewhere, likely in free agency. Moving on from Marvin Bagley would become an increasing likelihood given that he would be a fifth big. 

Taylor Hendricks

The quintessential 3-and-D prospect, Taylor Hendricks feels like the perfect fit for what this team is looking to add. Detroit finished in the bottom third of 3-point shooting percentage and among the worst defensive teams in the league. Can Hendricks really fill these needs?

Question: Hendricks feels like the ideal fit for this team. Do you see it that way? Is taking him at five too much of a reach? Bonus question, if they were to trade back to take him while picking up a second first-round pick, who do you think they should look at?

Answer: I do think he is a great fit, but the value is dubious. It’s highly unlikely the Pistons are not in a position to take one (or both) of the Thompson twins. Both fit a similar mold to Hendricks but with much more creation upside. Jarace Walker will be available unless there is a massive surprise. He brings a more refined offensive skillset with similarly bankable defensive tools. It’s hard to envision a world where Hendricks is the best fit AND value at 5.

But a trade back brings interesting questions. If a team like Utah is hell-bent on moving up to 5 and willing to trade one of their extra firsts, I’d jump on the chance. This class is deep, and even if Hendricks doesn’t make it to the trade-back spot, strong options will be available. Detroit should take the upside shot with the top 10 pick and find another wing later on. This is where this class is deepest. If they can walk away with Hendricks and Leonard Miller or GG Jackson, their wing group could be set.

This is the dream trade-back scenario and needed to be included in the considerations. There are rumors aplenty regarding the likes of Utah, Oklahoma City, and even Indiana packaging picks to move up and Weaver has never been shy to make a draft-day trade.

There are obviously plenty of young players on the roster, but again they have not invested these project picks in the wing. Doing that with two bites of the apple in a draft with wing depth would be the perfect cap to Detroit’s four years of draft restoration under Troy Weaver before turning their eyes to play-in contention. 

Ausar Thompson

Swinging more for the fences, Ausar Thompson has been a riser in the time since the Overtime Elite season has ended. For much of the predraft process, his twin brother Amen was looked at as the clearly better prospect. While he may still go higher in the draft, some are starting to come around to Ausar potentially being the better Thompson. Regardless, he fits better positionally in Detroit and would help cement them as the most athletic young core in the league. 

Question: Can Ausar Thompson play alongside two guards and be more of an ancillary playmaker while still being effective? Does this all depend on the shot actually developing?

Answer: Yes, yes, and no. Ausar’s outstanding defense and work ethic make me believe he can fit any backcourt. He’s great at running in transition and shows signs of knowing when to cut and go baseline on offense. He can play make in all fashions: off extended PNR or isolation reps, drives off closeouts, or finding quick swing passes or hitting cutters off the catch. The shot can certainly develop. But his high level of talent with and without the ball in his hands will keep the wheels greased offensively. And with the kind of defensive potential he brings, it makes for a great weapon next to Cunningham and Ivey.

For me personally, this would be the pick if the Pistons remain at five. The upside is sky-high. If you are going to take a prospect without shooting on the wing they have to bring a number of other things to the table. Ausar Thompson brings plenty to the table. 

Work ethic has been a key personality trait for the Pistons regime and Thompson would fit right in. He would bring additional playmaking and defense to a team in need of juicing up both. Imagining him running in transition with Cunningham and Ivey is tantalizing. 

Cam Whitmore

For most Detroit fans, this is the ideal choice once we fell to fifth in the draft. While his season at Villanova was less than had been hoped for, Cam Whitmore has sky-high potential. His decision-making needs work, to say the least, but this roster could be what unlocks him.

Question: Outside of Wembanyama, many within the fanbase have suggested that Cam Whitmore is the best fit for this roster. Do you see him as having star potential, or is there something that is likely to hold him back from that?

Answer: I think Cam has a case for a strong fit, but not for good reasons. I’m very low on the kind of creation burden he can hold long-term. So in this sense, he fits very well with a Cade/Ivey starting unit. The shooting is fine and he has some midrange potential. But he has side-to-side athleticism and handle concerns. I think that will ultimately limit his ability to impact the offense at the rim outside of cuts. 

The overall work ethic is a concern for me, not only for the offensive development but his entire defensive game. He’s not quick enough to defend up on slimmer wings or most guards. He mostly profiles as a rotating 4 on defense. It’s the lowest-end proposition for a defensive outcome unless you are elite like a Jaren Jackson Jr. Cam doesn’t have the feel or functional athleticism to get there in my eyes.

If you had asked me two weeks ago where Detroit went, it would have been Cam if he was still on the board. I no longer believe that to be the case, and Charlie really outlined why. As much as the personality fit for the first three guys was clean, Whitmore feels the opposite.

Given how often both Weaver and Monty Williams mentioned not only prioritizing talent but work ethic and culture, Whitmore feels like the kind of guy that they stay away from. That is not to say he will not be a success in this league. I just doubt it will be in the Motor City.

The post Detroit Pistons Draft Day Preview appeared first on Swish Theory.

What role will Leonard Miller play in the league? I have no idea. What I do know is that role projection analysis is capped, the issue with historical analysis is overgeneralization, and Leonard Miller should most definitely not be mocked in the 20s for the 2023 NBA Draft.

I can say with strong confidence that there really has never been a prospect like Leonard Miller. And quite frankly, there’s no reason why his integration of skills should be demonized (see: Refutation). His combination of physical tools, tangible skill, and sheer productivity is ridiculous, and it’s best epitomized through the following Skill-Paradigm framework.

Skill: Youth + Productivity

Paradigm: Exceptional productivity at a young age is indicative of untapped upside.

Leonard is freshman aged (Nov 2003, born in same month as Taylor Hendricks and Keyonte George). He is averaging a whopping 18 ppg with grown men on spectacular efficiency. 

63% TS, 66% at the rim, and a whopping 38 dunks. 24 points per 40 minutes, which would place him 5th across prospects in ESPN’s latest mock draft. He is genuinely a high volume scorer with simply tremendous efficiency and interior dominance. 

Since Leonard is at 63% TS, 38 dunks, and 18 ppg, let’s look at all freshman prospects who have ever hit 60% TS, 30 dunks, and 17 ppg:

1. Zion
2. Marvin Bagley
3. DeAndre Ayton
4. Vernon Carey
5. Jahlil Okafor

Four Duke bigs and Ayton is crazy. Lowering it to 16 ppg adds the following: 

6. Evan Mobley
7. Onyeka Okongwu
8. TJ Leaf
9. Zeke Nnaji

Again, pretty limited company. (Note that no one here had a FT% above 73% and none of them were really operating from the perimeter. That will be important soon.)

I understand that the G League has a different pace, but it’s almost certainly harder to score in the G vs college. You can waffle about rim protection but these numbers should at least contextualize Leonard’s scoring dominance. He was putting up numbers in the G League that only five other freshmen have even come close to in college.

But why does this matter? Why is the combination of youth and productivity so important?

Suppose I gave a group of college students an algebra test. Their scores would generally not be very useful or predictive, for obvious reasons. However, if I gave the algebra test to a group of 6th graders, it’s more likely to hold insights regarding their foundational skills. Obviously it’s not perfect, since access to resources/rate of development can vary dramatically, but it’s at least better at differentiating between performance. 

In the same way, a 19 year old dominating in a league full of grown men is an incredibly important statistical point. The age curve is real, and Leonard was not only the most statistically dominant teenager in the history of the G League, but he did it despite limited high-level experience – he was playing in Canadian youth circuits a year ago. High volume scoring at high efficiency is impressive and very rare among 19 year olds within the NCAA, let alone the G-League, which is littered with former college stars.

In other words:

(Historic Examples: Walker Kessler, Franz Wagner, Tyrese Haliburton, Mikal Bridges, and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. The relative heterogeneity of the group is a testament to the power of precocious productivity)

Skill: Size + Touch + Youth

Adjust usage of touch indicators based on size and youth.

Leonard is not a good shooter at the moment. He’s a very strongly below average shooter at the moment. This is a player who was below average or worse on jump shots, catch and shoot (both guarded and unguarded), dribble jumpers, early jumpers, runners, and hooks- literally every shot category not at the rim, Leonard was solidly below average. At the combine, Leonard finished dead last in the shooting drill, tied with Oscar Tshiebwe. 

Now that we have that out of the way, I say with as much confidence as I can for a player with such a negative shooting profile: Leonard is a relatively good bet to shoot. Let’s break this skill integration down:

1. Skill: Size + Touch

Leonard’s exceptional touch is most obvious to anyone who has watched even a modicum of Leonard film. I’m assuming readers are somewhat familiar with Leonard’s incredible bevy of floaters, off the glass ambidextrous pushes, and off-foot, off-hand finishes. If not: basically, Leonard Miller has incredible touch, but less in the traditional sense of strictly being a good shooter and more so in the sensuous control and finesse of his release in the short-intermediate area.

Leonard also shoots 80% from the line on strong volume. This is especially impressive considering the G League foul rules generating only one free throw per shooting foul, rather than two FTs/foul as in NCAA. The second free throw is anecdotally easier to make than the first free throw, with some armchair statisticians citing 4-5% increase in accuracy on the second FT vs the first FT. Given the robust sample size and the one FT rule, Leonard’s 80% FT is probably a slight underestimate. That is wild.

There’s obviously touch in terms of shooting, but how does touch operate in regards to ball handling fluidity? 

Well, Leonard has a wildly functional handle at 6’11.  He can genuinely dribble in small spaces extraordinarily well, and can maintain his dribble despite pretty significant pressure. The underlying fluidity of Leonard’s handling (he inadvertently throws  passes with one hand off a live dribble?) indicates another layer of the insanely high threshold of fine motor skills that Leonard possesses. We often tend to abridge dribbling as a learned skill, but it’s just as much of a function of biomechanical/motor underpinnings. Does this mean that he has a higher likelihood of hitting fadeaways and maybe even legitimate pull-ups off an improvised dribble cadence? Is he even going to be able to hit inside the arc fadeaways off hostage dribbles? I think these are legitimate potential outcomes. Nonetheless, Leonard’s fluidity and touch extends beyond just his free throw mastery to his BH craft, and I think his BH upside is significant enough to consider.

2. Skill: (Size + Touch) + Youth

The “coordination curve” is real. Tall players tend to undergo much more drastic skill improvements than shorter players. This is but another generality, but this is either because 1) the wings have been dominating by virtue of physicality for a while and are thereby at a skill disadvantage or 2) said player has grown immensely over a short period of time and is reaping the benefits of activating newfound avenues of scoring by virtue of increased frame and mass. Leonard may be the rare case that fits in both categories.

This might be intuitive, but young, wing sized players need to be graded on a much less harsh shooting curve- they are most prone to making massive in-season shooting leaps. Just look at Brandon Miller 3P volume/%  leap this year, or even Tari Eason’s FT% jump from freshman to sophomore year in 2022. Touch indicators are probably more robust for wings than guards, since the shooting curve is longer for wings. Speaking as someone who had Devon Dotson insanely high, Devon Dotson shooting 80% from the line but only 30% from 3 is not as strong of a shooting bet as someone 6 inches taller than him. Leonard has great touch indicators, he’s 6’10”, and he’s 19 years old. His already strong touch indicators are even more impressive in context of his size and age. He is certainly not destined to be a “bad” shooter.

3. Skill Gap: Shooting woes are a function of mechanics not touch

Leonard’s jumper issues are mechanically a function of energy leakage. The load mechanism is inconsistent from jumper to jumper, leading to a mistimed synchronization between the lower body to the core/upper body. This breakdown of the kinetic chain limits the push-off from the legs. 

The subsequent force generated from the lower body is meant to transfer throughout the hips and core, thereby enabling rotational torque about his center of gravity that thrusts the ball into trajectory. However, Leonard has a low arching push shot that is visibly segmented from the workflow of the kinetic linking, leading to a disparately visible discrimination between the set and push of the shot.

The hitch seems to cause variations in the release point of the ball. The pause disrupts the natural fluidity of the shooting motion, making it challenging to replicate a consistent release point from shot to shot. Leonard appears to over-rely on his upper extremity strength to generate power, bypassing the opportunity to maximize force production from the larger leg and core muscles.

Here’s the bottom line: Leonard is generating virtually no energy transfer between the kinetic linking of the upper and lower body. Part of that is the limited core stability symptomatic of the landing leg kicks and even poor one-legged landing mechanics after dunks. 

Touch + Energy Transfer = Shooting

Touch, which is succinctly the nexus of sensory feedback and coordination, operates synergistically with energy transfer to manifest in shooting goodness. Shots such as free throws and intermediate area shots are somewhat standardized to an extent- neither rely on a consistently dynamic change of energy transfer up the kinetic chain, and they are much more effective in indicating underlying touch.

Essentially, Leonard excels at these kinds of shots, since he has such good touch but not so great control over a homogeneous synchronization of energy transfer. Since his specialty – free throws and intermediate area shots – are more touch based and less dependent on efficient energy transfer, he excels at them.

However, when extending range to long 2’s/threes, there’s a necessity for more fluidity from upper body to release by virtue of the increasing distance. Leonard seems to be over reliant on his touch on the longer range jumpers/threes, which is probably why he seems to be pushing the ball so vigorously; the lack of effective energy transfer necessitates this vigor. The lack of core stability is either a symptom or root cause of the limited kinetic control- its the underlying bridge between the lower and upper extremities. I cannot emphasize how his one leg landings are really really bad, which is further evidence of his limited core stability.

Leonard has good touch and bad energy transfer/rotational torque. I’m no Chip England, but this is a far brighter picture than what the numbers portray. Core stability seems like an issue that can be fixed, and he also has insane touch- not just good touch, but borderline ridiculous touch. Fixing a shot mechanically is tough, but having the underlying elite touch makes it much lower hanging fruit than for a true “non shooter.” 

Skill: Physicality + Dawg

Unorthodox athleticism and motor at a young age is a strong indicator of outlier development.

Leonard is such a strong athlete. He fights hard for every single rebound and loose ball, which is impressive considering how often the Ignite were losing this year. He was ranked sixth in the entire G-League in rebounds a game, averaging 12 per 36 minutes. That is insane. A 19 year old who is quite visibly not even close to filling out physically, is inexplicably out rebounding grown men. For context, he’s averaging as many rebounds as Kenneth Faried. 

His per-game rebound rate is easily the highest among draft-eligible underclassmen, he’s fourth overall among draft eligible players… and he’s doing this against grown men, not against college players.

The intrinsic dawg of Leonard enables his rebounding goodness in the face of his lack of tangible strength and youth. He has an incredibly high motor, and he’s physically gifted (6’11” with a 7’2” wingspan and functionally very very strong, clearly) with seemingly much more room to grow and gain strength. The intersection of Leonard’s insane physicality, potential for even more physicality, and sheer dawg is not only rare, but seemingly ripe for outlier development. 

The most egregious part is that this 6’11” teenager legitimately moves like a guard. With long legs, flexible hips, and an incredible vestibular sense, Leonard can maintain stability while stringing out spins and stepbacks. In every sense of the term, Leonard is an advantage creator. His low shin angles, rapidly veering lower body rotations, and the sheer variance in his weight distribution allow him to lower his center of gravity and generate paint touches off a perimeter standstill. Again, how many 6’10 guys in the league can get a paint touch in the halfcourt?

Refutation: Role Projection is Imprecise

I fundamentally disagree with lowering a player’s projected outcome because of uncertainty regarding their projected role.

When we see a prospect that has an entirely unique set of flaws and weaknesses, role projection becomes much more difficult. There is no one to cross-check with, no one to even remotely compare the prospect and get a sense of what kind of outcomes they can achieve.  An intuitive byproduct of this is that when an unfamiliar, newer type of archetypal prospect emerges, they are mistakenly demonized for not being easily projectable. Here’s the issue though: precise role projection is hard as hell. Besides using general terms such as “future PnR BH”, “cutter”, “connector”, it is extremely difficult to project future roles for players. This is why I find it a bit ridiculous to be low on a player because you can’t project them well: Since when can we effectively project roles to begin with?

Of course, I am speaking in generalities to an extent. But if the biggest question for Leonard is not his productivity, ability to hold up against NBA defenses, or scoring touch, then uncertainty about role is quite a weak reason to limit his outcome projection. And this role uncertainty does seem to be the primary question regarding Leonard.

Closing Pitch: Leonard Miller is Good

Leonard Miller is projected to be picked outside the top 20, which, regardless of evaluatory paradigm of choice, is borderline ridiculous. I believe he has a legitimate top 10 case, and should at least be considered with a lottery selection. 

The issue with historical analysis is overgeneralization: history doesn’t repeat itself. It may follow incredibly similar patterns, making the process of prediction easier to elucidate. But there are far too many confounding variables to project variability by virtue of precedent alone. 

Again, anyone who pretends that precise role projection is somewhat feasible is lying to you. Most people base role projection almost entirely off precedent, which means that when an unfamiliar, newer type of archetypal prospect emerges, they demonize them for not being familiar. We often conflate projecting outcomes with projecting roles. Most role projections are outright wrong, so quite frankly I don’t see too much of an issue with not knowing how Leonard will project.

Who is Leonard Miller at his peak? I honestly have no idea. He’s such an unprecedented player with such wide discrepancies between his strengths and weaknesses; his role is impossible to project. 

What position does he guard? To be honest, I’m not losing sleep at night regarding the primary position that Leonard Miller, a 6’11 teenage wing with a 7’2 wingspan and insatiable motor, will guard. Again, I don’t know what role he will play, but isn’t the most dominant teenager in G-League history a good bet to be a role player at least?

Hollingerian draft analysis is predicated around the idea of stability of floor, wherein there are 20 players who will evolve into feasible contributors, and searching for those 20 players in any given draft should be a primary consideration of any big board. While this approach has its flaws, including overfitting without effectively capturing changing league context, it’s a floor-centric approach that should theoretically favor Leonard. 

This is the beauty of the Leonard Miller draft evaluation. You can be a tools-centric truther, a pure hooper, a calculator boy with a distaste for ahistorical analysis, a Hollinger disciple, or from the Zwickerian tree of making a  series of objective extrapolations off every minutiae of tangible skill. Leonard Miller combines all sectors of evaluatory paradigms with his unprecedented integration of skills.

The post Leonard Miller: Evaluatory Paradigms, Energy Transfer, and the Fallacy of Role Projection appeared first on Swish Theory.

LeBron James, Kevin Durant, Kawhi Leonard, Giannis Antetokounmpo. Those four players hold 9 of the last 11 Finals MVP trophies. The NBA is a league dominated by large ball handlers, with the best leading their team to NBA finals infamy season after season. 

Few people will argue that the best players in the NBA are largely forward-sized (or larger), with Steph Curry as the only real challenger to that throne for nearly twenty years. What defines a successful NBA guard has changed over that time, but the lens with which we evaluate the position has not evolved along with it.

The search for a modern lead guard has become more and more difficult as time has progressed. In a world where the best players on championship teams are over the height of 6’6”, what does it mean to be a “lead guard” when you aren’t the driving force for your team? 

Let’s take a look at the conference finals of the last five years and what kinds of guards thrived in those environments.

In the East you have Jrue Holiday, Marcus Smart (Derrick White?), Kyle Lowry (Miami and Toronto versions) and Trae Young. 

In the West there is Jamal Murray, Austin Reaves, Steph Curry, Jalen Brunson, Chris Paul, Patrick Beverly, Alex Caruso and Damian Lillard. 

There is a general feeling that a point guard is meant to be this ball-in-hand maestro, pressuring the rim while operating the offense like a puppeteer, but that is so rarely the case when the calendar turns to June. What are the skills most consistent with those above groupings? Any of versatility (in both offensive role and defensive assignment), overwhelming shooting gravity, and/or pick and roll excellence. No-look skip passes and mid-air acrobatics make for an incredible highlight tape, but in the last half decade of basketball has rarely been a driving force in championship success.

This lead guard mentality often seeps into the evaluation of draft prospects, docking players for not living up to a flawed standard. In the 2023 NBA draft there is a glut of guard prospects in the heart of the first round from Anthony Black to Kobe Bukin and Jalen Hood-Schifino, but there are two that stand out in the afterglow of playoff basketball.

Cason Wallace and Nick Smith Jr are two versions of the modern point guard, standing on the backs of excellence and versatility. In a crowded class, what makes these two prospects more suited for playoff basketball? The times have changed. 

The Prospect: Cason Wallace

Cason Wallace is the basketball personification of persistent excellence. Few teenagers have played a full season of college basketball while making as few mistakes as Cason did this past season. On the offensive end, Wallace toggled between an on-ball and off-ball role in a crowded backcourt, but seemingly always made the right decision. 

Wallace is the rare kind of prospect who never takes anything away from your team. He doesn’t make unforced errors or sloppy turnovers, he executes his scheme and chips away at you bit by bit. That kind of controlled dominance is something worth valuing in translation to a role in the NBA, but also from a developmental perspective.  

Succeeding in your role as a young player in the league is the fast track to increased opportunity. So few rookies enter the league as manageable defensive players, and those that are that have even an inkling of offensive skill are immediately thrown into the flames

That trial by fire will be Wallace’s rookie season, and few prospects have been as prepared. He will be on an NBA floor in October, a success for any NBA draft pick, but it is his potential impact in Junes to come that makes Cason Wallace an ideal modern point guard.

The Pitch: Floor General and Defensive Mastermind

The biggest knock against Cason is that he doesn’t quite have the juice you’re looking for out of a lead guard. In a wide-angle view, that is a stance I am sympathetic to. Wallace lacks your traditional “workout moves” you see out of lead ball handlers, rarely resulting in flashy combos or deft manipulation, winning his battles in a much more brutish and physical manner. 

That doesn’t lead to your typical draft prospect mixtape for a point guard, but the results themselves were statistically astounding.  Wallace is efficient from just about everywhere on the floor. At the rim, Wallace shot an astounding 66%, far and away the highest mark in the class amongst guards. His finishing quality comes from a combination of strength, touch and crafty finishing angles. He is not the most explosive guard with the ball in his hands, but his skill and athleticism more than compensates.

Beyond his finishing at the rim, Wallace shot a scalding 44.8% on dribble jumpers in the midrange. Despite his relatively low usage rate of 20.3, Wallace had an impressive volume of two-point self creation. He was never overwhelming, but was incredibly efficient in the types of shots NBA offenses will ask him to take. 

Wallace is best operating out of a pick and roll, allowing him to read the defense within a familiar construct and in turn make quality decisions. He is not the flashiest passer, but he makes the reads required of him in lay downs, pocket passes, or kickouts. He is not someone to create offense out of thin air, but give him a closeout or a ball screen and now you’re cooking with gas. 

Cason was efficient from everywhere on the floor this past season, particularly within the arc. Typically when you are really good at scoring in certain areas, teams will lean on that until you become less efficient. That never happened at Kentucky, the sky is blue and water is wet. I am not saying Cason Wallace is Jamal Murray or Devin Booker, but the idea he is incapable of shouldering a larger scoring load on offense does not track.  

There isn’t anything Cason should be asked to do at the next level that he won’t thrive at from day one. That immediate translatability is incredibly important. Wallace will have the opportunity for on court reps the moment he steps onto an NBA court, in large part because of his defensive impact.

Wallace is one of the most advanced defensive guards at his age in modern history. A team-defense wizard, he is always in the right place at the right time in help or jumping passing lanes. He is an effective defender in isolation and uses his strength well, but can struggle to navigate ball screens with a bulkier frame. He is still an effective defender on-ball and provides versatility there, but it is the off-ball defense that pays the bills.

The best defenders anticipate actions and are already there seemingly before it even happens. It’s a catalyst for good defense, plugging holes before they have time to let in water. You know the famous Derek Jeter play where he just appears behind home plate to complete an entirely insane series-saving play? That’s Cason Wallace.

The Fit: Steady Hand of the King to a Score First Wing

Teams built around a score-first forward like Giannis, Jayson Tatum or Kawhi Leonard are the ideal fit for a guard like Cason, and it is no coincidence they have found success next to guards with a similar value proposition in Jrue Holiday, Marcus Smart and Patrick Beverly.

No matter how much teams stress offensive flow and inclusion, in playoff hoops the ball finds your star, and your offense is defined by what they do with it. They aren’t creating enormous advantages for others, so the necessary threshold for creation is higher for their teammates. You need to do something when the ball finds you and the defense has a short closeout, but the returns on self creation are diminishing.

The best self creator on the team is already installed, and only one person can create at a time. Boston is not taking the ball out of Jayson Tatum’s hands for a Marcus Smart iso (on purpose). Thriving in the other areas of the game is where you begin to see exponential impact, and that is the case for Cason. I am more optimistic than some regarding his ultimate upside as a scorer, but genuinely I am not sure how much it matters.

Cason Wallace will be thriving in playoff rotations for the next decade because of his defense and steady-handed efficiency. Cason Wallace’s game is built for modern playoff basketball. Prospects with that certainty of two way competence do not come around often. For a point guard on a wing-led team, the combination of supreme defensive impact and scalable, diverse offense is a proven recipe for success. Beyond immediate translatability the combination of early-career opportunity, defensive processing and athleticism are a proven recipe for outlier development. 

The Prospect: Nick Smith Jr

Nick Smith Jr is a fixer-upper fan’s dream. A top-five recruit entering college many expected to be in contention for a top-three pick, the flashes of electric athleticism, limitless shooting and instinctual passing seemed to be the foundation of a creator. 

A preseason wrist injury requiring surgery and an in-season knee injury all but sapped any hope of Smith building on his positive momentum entering the year, and as a result his potential draft position has slid precipitously.

This is a phenomenon that irks me to my core. Nick Smith Jr is not a meaningfully different prospect than he was a year ago. His foundation of quick-twitch athleticism, shot versatility and budding self creation remain an ever-present part of his appeal as a prospect and his freshman season showed flashes of it all.

Any player that misses training camp, the beginning of the season, and is then sidelined for two months with a (minor) knee injury is going to struggle to integrate themselves into a system, particularly one as spacing deprived as Arkansas this past season.

It is easy to look at the macro-level statistical output and lower NSJ down your board accordingly, but that statistical sample is far too flawed to take at face value.  

The Pitch: On- and Off-Ball Creation

The first thing you have to start with when discussing Nick’s freshman season is the shot. The numbers from an efficiency perspective were incredibly poor, especially for a prospect billed to be an excellent shooter. The context of his injuries, wrist and knee, are important in understanding that sample.

Could it be possible that the only real difference in his success as a shooter between this year and last is his health, and comfort getting into his shot? In my eyes, that feels more likely the more I watch. Smith wasn’t just a good shooter in high school, his touch was outlandish and his range was already Lillard-esque. Shot creators take a long time to develop into efficient scorers, so it is no shock an injury-riddled season led to inefficiency. With that said, NSJ’s flashes as an initiator, using his gravity and shot versatility to create offense, were as scalding as ever.

Learning to harness your gravity is what catalyzes the offensive impact of guard creators like Nick, but it is something that only comes with time. It takes a high level of feel and creative boldness to truly maximize that kind of offensive weapon as an off-ball mover and freestyle passer.

Nick can make reads in the pick and roll in the half court that lead well to future projection as a passer and creator for others, but it is his excellence within the confines of chaos that truly intrigues me. When things go awry, the ball seems to always find its way to Nick, and in turn the spectacular follows.

The free flowing nature of modern basketball is made for a freestyle artist like Nick Smith Jr, and he will thrive in the chaos of transition as soon as he enters the league. That open court creativity fuels the dream of potential half-court creation. 

This past season Smith settled a lot in the half court, too often chucking up a difficult floater early into a drive. From a sheer volume perspective, NSJ trailed only Brice Sensabaugh and Jalen Hood-Schifino in per70 mid-range scoring, the only issue being his drastically lower efficiency.

Unlike Brice and JHS, who often struggle to create initial advantages yet find a way to score, Smith is a shifty handler with real burst. His handle is still rudimentary at times (see: injury, wrist) but his comfortability with unorthodox movement styles and jitter-bug athleticism make for an encouraging creator bet as he grows into his frame.

That last part is the key, and ties directly into his overall efficiency woes. Smith is able to create initial advantages, but often is too weak in his handle or frame to maintain them, much less finish through rim protection waiting in the paint. 

The Fit: Score First Robin to a Jumbo Playmaker Batman 

You don’t have to look far to find the ideal test case for this fit, with the NBA Champion Denver Nuggets showing just how effective it can be. The NBA is dominated by larger playmakers, and it makes sense: the taller you are, the more passing windows you have at your disposal. Be it Nikola Jokic, LeBron James, Luka Doncic or more unproven options like LaMelo Ball, Josh Giddey and Amen Thompson, size and passing ability are a combination of skills you find in foundational pieces of rosters across the league.

Smith is the ideal player to pair with that style of creator for a few different reasons. Offensively, his scalability both on and off ball is a valuable trait, as the style of his game thrives in both settings. The versatility of Smith’s game relies on his jumper, and that is the thing I am most confident in projecting forward. One injury-marred season doesn’t change that. 

Adding size and the ability to play through contact would be next in line, and one that feels pretty safe to project (at least to a moderate degree) considering his frame and age. NSJ is never going to be a bully ball guard, but he has the height and length to grow into a stronger player than he is currently. Being able to finish some looks through traffic would be a positive step, and something that should come easier on a properly spaced NBA floor with NBA level offensive players surrounding him.

On the defensive end, much of the vision again relies on Smith adding at least a modicum of strength. He is a hyper-quick athlete with the kind of twitchiness you need out of a point of attack defender in ball screens. He does an excellent job of using his body to maneuver through screens while staying locked behind the defender, where his length does wonders as he recovers to contest. 

Certainly there were major lapses in technique and attentiveness throughout the year, but when things were clicking the vision of NSJ as a player who can successfully fill a role in an effective defense begins to look a little clearer.  

This is not to say NSJ is going to be a high impact defensive player (though I am undoubtedly higher on his defensive potential than most), but he does fill a useful role for most rosters. No star, big or small, wants to defend opposing point guards at the point of attack. Smith has the tools to succeed there, and with the proper organizational emphasis should do well enough there to provide value, all while being an incredibly dynamic offensive player.

That road to even moderate impact is important, as it means the likelihood of a prospect becoming a “man without a country” on the defensive end. NSJ may not be the best POA guy in the league, but he has the tools to fare much better than the alternative. Taking the defensive assignment nobody wants to take and providing potential star offensive value on and off the ball is like team building fertilizer, it makes growing a healthy roster landscape that much easier. 

The Wrap: Guards are Good

The idea of a “lead guard” is a useful concept, one that describes a general archetype that is one of the most valuable in the league, but its definition has become too narrow. 

In a modern NBA where offensive initiation is more diversified than ever before, the requirements of point guards differ on nearly every single NBA team. The idea that being a point guard requires three-level self creation and advanced passing reads to be an A1 point guard prospect is overly dismissive. 

The best guards in the postseason are the guards that mesh perfectly with the needs of their surrounding talent. Every player has their own strengths and weaknesses, team building in the NBA is about finding players that accentuate the strengths of the best players in your team. 

Cason Wallace and Nick Smith Jr are primed with strengths that enhance modern title contenders and the players around them with the upside to change the course of a championship.  Sounds like a lead guard to me. 

The post The Lead Guard Fallacy appeared first on Swish Theory.