The Process of Building the Next Great Spurs Team
The date is October 31st, 1986.
The Oprah Winfrey Show had just begun its first season on television, gas was $0.89/gallon, Europe was grappling with the environmental disaster of the Chernobyl nuclear plant meltdown and the United States was still recovering from the shock and horror of the Challenger explosion broadcast live on National Television.
This was the last time the San Antonio Spurs began an NBA season in a situation like the one they currently find themselves in. There was little reason for hope entering the year, the team had nothing resembling a star on their roster and the road to acquiring one went only one way, lottery luck. The team finished the year 28-54 with the 4th worst record in the league before finding themselves in the most fortuitous of situations, at the top of the draft with a generationally talented big man waiting to hear his name called.
The selection of David Robinson changed the trajectory of the franchise for the next 30 years, even if he didn’t debut in the league until 1989. In the two years after his selection the team continued to lose but hope remained on the horizon, sailing the ocean blue aboard the deck of the USS Stormes.
The first seven years of the Robinson-led Spurs were prosperous yet ultimately futile on their journey towards title contention. It wasn’t until the 1996-97 season where the team suffered a rash of injuries that the Spurs found themself in the lottery race once again, culminating in an unprecedented opportunity to add another franchise cornerstone to their existing core. The rest is now, quite literally, basketball history.
Here we are 36 years later, and the team has finally found their way back to where they started, entering a season where the definition of success is intertwined with a random game of chance. While the immediate outlook for this team may appear bleak, the current foundation of this Spurs roster is uniquely constructed for one of the more interesting tanking experiments in recent memory. This roster is not lacking in developmental talent nor is it lacking in youth. There are pieces currently on this roster that may prove to be invaluable to a competitive Spurs team in the future. First, they need to find their North Star, a talent the team can revolve around on their road back to contention.
Many teams entering a rebuild strip the team down to the studs and send off their parts to the highest bidder. From the Process 76ers to the Sam Presti Thunder, rebuilds have taken a new shape: get rid of everything that isn’t tied down and accumulate as much draft equity as possible.
The Spurs are trying to walk the thin line between a total tear-down and a soft reboot, a decision that could prove to be fortuitous with the help of a little lottery luck. This team has roster depth 2 through 5 that few other tanking teams in the league have with young starting-caliber players across every position. With modern wings, versatile defenders, perimeter shooters and connective pieces San Antonio has many of the parts required to build a competitive team. The roster is flush with complimentary pieces that still have room for substantive growth. What they don’t have at this moment in time is a creator, someone they can build their roster around, a star to give them their identity.
San Antonio was one of the worst teams in the clutch last season, even with Dejounte Murray leading the charge. They had very few avenues to create easy offense when they needed it, resulting in heartbreaking losses and blown leads all throughout the 2021-22 season. Teams can remain competitive the first 46 minutes of a game through scheme and effort but when the going gets tough in the final minutes of a close game you need someone to put the ball in the hoop. Not having that piece may be the single most valuable tool for a team in the tank race.
In this piece I will be diving into each and every player on the roster and looking at not only how they project to perform this season but the role they play in the Spurs rebuild as a whole. There are a lot of pieces to the puzzle that already exist on this roster, they just need to be put into their proper place.
Every roster needs a keystone, a foundational piece to build around, but what happens if the rest of the structure is already in place by the time it arrives? It’s time to start building.
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When Opportunity Rings
This summer has had a strange feeling to it, in many ways the final steps of a journey that began over 4 years ago.
On a larger scale, this is the inevitable end that we first saw glimpses of back in 2011 when the Spurs lost a physical first– round series against the Grizzlies. The team finished the regular season at 61-21, enough to earn the top seed in the West but father time began to rear its head, resulting in 1 of only 5 1-8 seed upsets in NBA history. Manu was struggling to stay on the court consistently, Tim was sauntering around with a bad leg and Tony wasn’t enough to keep the championship dreams afloat.
That team was granted an extension on their tanking deadline by adding a budding superstar in Kawhi Leonard, but a state of perpetual contention was not meant to be. The team was able to rally around their existing structure to build one of the most euphoric sports moments I will ever experience. Their title season in 2014 was as much about the existing Big 3 as it was their newest superstar, creating an enormous expectation even after the existing pillars began to fall. As the Big 3 rode off into the sunset, the team continued to build for contention, but unbeknownst to them a certain Slim Reaper was looking to change teams, ultimately creating the most overwhelming collection of talent in NBA history. The way was shut.
There just wasn’t enough in the cupboard after two decades of contention. The team had a true-blue star but little else to build around in the future. Ultimately, it was not enough to retain their greatest developmental success story.
When Kawhi forced his way out of San Antonio the trade market looked much different than it does today. Teams held on to first– round picks, even protected ones, like precious family heirlooms. Jimmy Butler was traded for Dario Saric and Robert Covington; Paul George was traded for Victor Oladipo and a fledgling Domantas Sabonis with no first-round picks conveyed in either deal.
The Kawhi trade was the end of an era, the last star trade of a buyer’s market. Conditions then shifted to favor sellers by the fortunate circumstances bestowed upon OKC and New Orleans, along with the remarkable success of the Kawhi trade for Toronto.
That trade, even considering the trade environment of the time, was disappointing. This is not to say the package received was lacking value or was even a poor deal given what was available. Reports throughout the trade saga and after confirmed Boston would not trade either of Brown or Tatum, the Lakers would not trade Lonzo or Ingram, the Clippers would only give up Tobias Harris and one of their firsts (they owned both 12+13), and that was just about the entire market. The deal itself was not bad given the options out there, but it was bad in that it delayed the inevitable. It avoided making the tough but necessary decision to rebuild.
The team toiled in mediocrity every season since, but with each passing year they drew closer and closer to a true rebuild. This mini-era started with a hard fought seven-game series against the Nuggets in 2019 and has gone downhill ever since. They were never able to get over the play-in hump due to a roster construction that simply lacked the two-way players necessary for making a real playoff run.
Now, here we are after four years of chasing playoff (or play-in) appearances with nary a whiff of contention. Yet, the future is as bright and exciting as we have seen since an ill-fated encounter with the Georgian who shall not be named. What is different this time around in the wake of a franchise altering trade? Despite the same feeling of angst over the loss of a homegrown star, this time a direction was firmly decided upon, and the compensation was much more in line with the value of the player being traded. San Antonio was finally able to reap the rewards of the trade market they helped to create.
There is a very real possibility that owning the Atlanta draft from 2025-2027 (two unprotected firsts and an unprotected swap) becomes one of the highest valued trade assets on the market. Dejounte has two years remaining on his deal, and if things don’t go according to plan the situation in Atlanta could get ugly fast.
Now there is certainly the chance those picks end up being in the late 20s and Atlanta is a genuine contender in perpetuity, but that is far from set in stone. Either way, the Spurs will have the draft assets needed to make nearly any move they deem necessary over the next few years. They own all their firsts, the 2025 protected first from Chicago, 2023 protected first from Charlotte and the above-mentioned Atlanta picks. Their value to San Antonio is more than just what they will become, it is about the flexibility it grants them before they even convey.
For the first time since 1997 the Spurs will enter the great abyss of the tank race, and while the roster may lack an MVP level talent a la David Robinson, there are a few similarities I find to be important when analyzing the path forward for the club. There is plenty of young talent on this roster already as the team has spent the last four years drafting and developing players who should have long careers in the league. Despite this collection of talent San Antonio may end up with the worst record in the league and a chance at landing a franchise altering talent.
This is a 2022-23 San Antonio Spurs encyclopedia: we will be covering anything and everything you need to know about one of the league’s premier franchises finally turning the page and entering the tank race. Can a team be built to lose and built to rebound at the same time? Let’s find out.
Waiting in the Wings
This current roster is bereft of “star” talent and is most likely going to finish in the bottom five of the standings this year. While the idea of a full blown rebuild may sound bleak to some, the foundation is laid for a quicker turnaround than one might expect. Even with Dejounte this team lacked a straw that truly stirred the drink, needing a true 1A to push them over the play-in hump. This draft is as good as any to find that piece, and the team’s decision to maximize their chances of doing so by trading the one true advantage creator on the roster is, by all accounts, the best opportunity the Spurs have to create a true contender.
Most rebuilds are a multi-year project as the team is stripped down to the studs to begin the painstaking process of starting from scratch. Fortunately for San Antonio there are pieces on the roster that project as long-term impact rotation players, pieces that should easily fit on the next great Spurs team, all while lacking the necessary skills to drag this team out of the doldrums for this upcoming season.
Each of the players in this section are by no means lacking upside, but their existing skill sets are more conducive to success when playing off a star. Their importance to this team is not tied to the small percentage of outcomes where they themselves become a star but in their ability to jump-start the journey back to respectability once one is added. This isn’t to undersell their potential, any one of these guys could hit in a franchise altering way, but even if they were to do so their growth shouldn’t drastically change the outlook of the team this season. These four should allow the Spurs to have their tanking cake and eat it too.
Keldon Johnson
The case for growth from Keldon is a simple, albeit difficult one. He played much of last year in an off-ball role with relatively limited opportunity to explore the studio space with the ball in his hands. Coming off a four-year $80 million extension there will be a much greater investment in Keldon moving forward, both financially and developmentally.
In his one season with the Austin Spurs, Keldon looked like a different player, running a ton of pick and rolls and playing as the primary scoring option for the team. He scored 20 points a game while shooting 60% on 2s. He was a battering ram getting to the rim, stronger than anyone he came across even as a 19-year-old rookie playing against grown men. Keldon wasn’t a proactive playmaker, but he showed the ability to make basic reads out of ball-screen actions, an area in which he has continued to improve in San Antonio despite an increased difficulty to get easy buckets.
Keldon’s on-ball creation has not translated to the next level as he has experienced more than a few issues finishing in traffic and dealing with contests from true rim protectors. It hasn’t been the smoothest sailing within the arc, but his growth shooting the ball this season was nothing short of remarkable. If he is forcing real closeouts he becomes an entirely different type of offensive weapon, and one that would fit with nearly any lineup construction in the league.
The path forward looks a lot cleaner now that the shot has started to fall. Any improvement in off-the-dribble shot creation or finishing craft could push him into fringe All-Star consideration. His defensive impact certainly has a long way to go, particularly in terms of rotational awareness, but he is at the very least able to bang with bigger forwards and has shown flashes of promise guarding on the perimeter. He doesn’t have the instincts or measurables of a true impact defender but getting to the point where he is no longer negatively impactful feels well within the realm of possibility.
Keldon entered camp with a dislocated shoulder and a slimmer frame, telling media he dropped over 20 pounds this off-season. That is an enormous development that should not be understated when projecting his role on this team and beyond. He has never been the fleetest of foot on either end, shedding this weight could help him on both in terms of on-ball creation and defensive impact. Keldon is a natural wing and seeing the front office, coaching staff and player aligned on that front is an overwhelmingly positive thing. If he can improve his first step, shiftiness or defensive mobility he could be in store for a larger growth leap than originally anticipated.
At this point in time Keldon is ideally suited as a secondary scorer, someone who feasts off advantages created for him. There is a chance he blossoms into a true initiator, but Keldon doesn’t need that high of an outcome to remain valuable. He will look great next to any star he plays with through his competitive nature, floor spacing and fearlessness attacking closeouts. Keldon doesn’t need to be the star of the team, but he may need one beside him to truly flourish.
Devin Vassell
The impact Devin brings goes much further than efficiency numbers or the box score. He hasn’t put up enormous stats offensively and in reality, hasn’t even shot that well considering his billing entering the league. What he has done is provide an ideal complementary skill set for any starting five in basketball. He isn’t a lock-down defender on the ball, but he is more than adequate defending 1-3 while possessing great instincts as a help defender on the perimeter and at times as a secondary or tertiary rim protector.
His defensive skillet is an ideal fit in any positive context as he works as a catalyst that is more effective when surrounded with the proper ingredients. Unfortunately, he did not have said ideal context in San Antonio playing next to both Keldon and Doug McDermott but that may be beginning to change with the roster additions the team made this summer.
On the offensive end, Vassell again provides a tailor-made complementary skill set with his ability to space the floor, shoot off movement and keep the ball moving. There have been real flashes of shot-making off the bounce and even some fun passing when getting to initiate some of the offense, but his ability to get to and finish around the rim has been less than stellar. With an increased role in the offense and a large burden on-ball we should learn a lot about Devin’s game this season. His shot creation package deserves more opportunity for growth.
While there is real upside here on both sides of the ball, what makes Vassell such a valuable cog in the rebuild is that there are a variety of potential outcomes where he provides a positive impact. As is, Devin is a positive spacing the floor in spot-up and movement situations while providing impactful team defense. If he shows any improvement in his handle, allowing him to provide additional rim pressure or shot creation, the value add becomes exponentially greater. Conquer the complex art of screen navigation? Now we might have something special.
Vassell will have a greater impact on-court as the pieces around him improve in quality due to his already proficient complementary skill set. Couple that with his potential on both ends of the court and there are few players on this roster better suited to be a foundational piece of this rebuild going forward. Vassell should see a major leap in his usage next season, and we will get a clearer picture as to what his future holds. Regardless of how this season goes, Vassell will be an important part of the puzzle this front office is looking to build.
Jeremy Sochan
Drafting Sochan at ninth overall this season was hardly surprising given his projected fit with the existing young core. This team has desperately needed a positive defensive presence at the four for as long as I can remember and they finally took the plunge with their first top-10 pick this millennia.
Sochan was relatively unheralded entering his freshman year at Baylor, ranking outside of the top 100 in his recruiting class. He jumped on to the draft scene early in the season with impressive displays guarding in space, rotating on the perimeter, initiating sets and even hitting a few turnaround jumpers.
The offense has a very long way to go, but there is reason for hope. Jeremy Sochan is anything but bashful and his confidence to continue to put up shots and play hard even when the ball isn’t going through the hoop will go a long way. It will take a while before he can score at any kind of an impactful level, if ever, but in the meantime his existing skill set will allow him to play as a connector on both ends. He makes quick decisions with the ball, reads the court well and (in what will almost certainly make him a fan favorite from day one), plays with competitiveness and effort every second he is on the court.
He is aggressive when crashing the glass, can switch onto both smaller and larger players while intuitively knowing where to be at all times. What he lacks in run and jump athleticism he makes up for in lateral quickness and anticipation. The Spurs started Keldon and Doug McDermott together for much of this season and it led to some atrocious defensive results. Sochan offers a different look, someone at the forward spot whose defensive motor never stops, finding ways to win battles somewhere in the margins.
Despite being surrounded by players like Dejounte Murray, Derrick White, Devin Vassell, Josh Richardson and Jakob Poeltl, the weight of two negative defenders playing together at the forward spots all but sunk the chances of an above average defense. The position is too valuable defensively to get nothing from it and adding Sochan should help tremendously. His rotational soundness and competitive nature should be synergistic playing next to Keldon and Devin rather than the previous parasitic roster construct. Even if the scoring never truly comes around, Sochan should have no problem seeing the court and providing a positive impact for the entirety of his career in San Antonio.
What a Young Vet Brings
While the four players above would be considered the “young core” on the roster, they are not the only players that line up well with the rebuild timeline. Not every young player needs to have some amount of “star” potential to be a valuable piece on a team starting from scratch. Young basketball teams need structure and competence for the foundational pieces to have a proper chance at growth, and the three players in this section offer that while conforming to this newfound agenda.
There is decidedly less upside and team control with this group of players, but they fit the bill for what a team needs when filling out a rotation. I would be hesitant to move on from any of them until the waters become a little less murky, and even then the price would be high.
There are certain roles every team needs to fill if they hope to be competitive night in and night out. The Spurs have a few of these pieces already in place and it might be wise to keep them around. Every great Spurs team has been built on cohesion, something built over years of learning habits and forging an identity. Determining the right pieces to grow with is the first step of that journey.
While the four players above would be considered the “young core” on the roster, they are not the only players that line up well with the rebuild timeline. Not every young player needs to have some amount of “star” potential to be a valuable piece on a team starting from scratch. Young basketball teams need structure and competence for the foundational pieces to have a proper chance at growth, and the three players in this section offer that while conforming to this newfound agenda.
There is decidedly less upside and team control with this group of players, but they fit the bill for what a team needs when filling out a rotation. I would be hesitant to move on from any of them until the waters become a little less murky, and even then the price would be high.
There are certain roles every team needs to fill if they hope to be competitive night in and night out. The Spurs have a few of these pieces already in place and it might be wise to keep them around. Every great Spurs team has been built on cohesion, something built over years of learning habits and forging an identity. Determining the right pieces to grow with is the first step of that journey.
Jakob Poeltl
Jakob has been solid since the day he arrived in San Antonio. Not the longest or most explosive athlete, Poeltl is another guy who wins with anticipation and awareness. His play as a roller this year was encouraging; he may struggle at the line but is impressive finishing around the basket for someone who is primarily a below the rim finisher.
What interests me most about Jakob has been his passing growth in recent years. He averaged nearly 3 assists a game this year and in retrospect that number feels low. Jakob was one of the league leaders in touches at the elbow last season and was consistently asked to read the floor and make smart decisions with the ball. Jakob was much more of a fulcrum for the offense than years past and the results were largely positive. He made great passes to shooters as a roll man and as a hub at the top of the key throughout the year.
While he isn’t getting guarded as a shooter, allowing him to run a DHO forces his man to stretch out to Jakob or risk a wide open three with no avenue to contest. Once that happens, he can make passes or even put the ball on the deck and beat his man to the rim when given proper spacing. Seeing a seven-footer dribble into a body-contorting layup isn’t something you see every day and offers a unique avenue for usage. It’s a fun way to try and space the floor with a center who can’t shoot, and it helps open up the court for his passing beyond simply finding the shooter involved in the DHO.
With the recent departures of Derrick White, Dejounte Murray and Lonnie Walker, this team has lost an enormous chunk of playmaking. Leaning on a steady vet presence like Jakob to create offense in a more nontraditional way may be the best option for creating a system functional enough to help develop the young wings on the roster.
Beyond his current fit on the court, Jakob is someone I hope sticks around through the rebuild. Yes, he will be an unrestricted free agent this summer, but he will be entering a marketplace where big men of his caliber make a modest amount more than the mid-level but rarely anything approaching $20 million/year. I would be doing anything and everything I could to extend him before the season starts (4/51 is roughly the max they can offer him in an extension this off-season). A deal in the ballpark of 4/50 to 4/65 seems like a workable construct for both sides. Despite his inability to shoot the ball Jakob is an above average starting center and should continue to be through the life of his next contract.
Even if the team were to win the lottery and draft Victor Wembanyama, Poeltl would fill a valuable role on the team. Any team that drafts Victor next year will make keeping him healthy a priority. Nobody is going to trot Wemby out as a 19-year-old and ask him to guard true centers night in and night out as there is no benefit to putting him through that kind of physical grind. On the offensive end the fit should be just as smooth if the shot continues to improve, and his recent performance overseas certainly helps that potentiality.
Jakob is never going to be so good he wins you too many games or stands in the way of a young prospect getting minutes, but he is good enough to be a driving force to continuity and competence on both sides of the ball. That is exactly the kind of cost controlled 26-year-old I want around my rebuilding team. I would understand trading him to continue adding future assets, but it would take more than a late 1st round pick for me to feel comfortable moving him and I don’t see that kind of package on the market this season.
You don’t have to sell every good basketball player in a rebuild and certainly not players that still fit in your existing timeline. Having an above average starting center already in place will go a long way in creating a competent structure on this roster throughout the rebuilding process.
Tre Jones
Jones, a second-round pick entering the final season of his 3-year contract, would be my guess for who is spearheading the Spurs offense come October.
If there is one thing this team is lacking, it is rim pressure. While Vassell has shown an ability to create some offense off the bounce it has resulted in almost exclusively contested dribble jumpers. White and Murray were the only two Spurs to consistently self-create rim attempts last year; with both gone the team will need someone to initiate sets and get two feet in the paint for their drive-and-kick offensive system to have any semblance of success. Despite his relatively diminutive frame, Tre is the best bet to provide that on a consistent basis this season.
Unlike anyone else on this roster, Tre has spent his entire life playing point and running an offense. He was an All-American at Duke his sophomore year where he was one of the best players in the country. At the pro level he played well, leading the team in Austin his rookie season before slowly earning a spot in the rotation this year, filling in the injury gaps as they arose.
Tre isn’t going to be draining pull-up jumpers or leading the team in scoring, but the skillset he provides fits like a glove with what this roster needs. He is on the smaller side but is incredibly quick with more than enough craft getting to and finishing at the rim, putting defenses into rotation and getting the ball moving around the perimeter. Tre finished the year with a nearly 5:1 assist-to-turnover ratio, a remarkable number that placed him at 4th in the entire league. He very rarely makes poor decisions with the ball in his hands and has done an excellent job of running the offense when given the chance, particularly in transition settings.
At his best, Tre is the perfect game manager PG that should find a role as a third guard on any roster. The shooting needs to come along but there is reason to be optimistic. He has good touch on his floater in the lane, was a good mid-range shooter in college and is a career 80% FT shooter. He doesn’t have to create threes off the bounce consistently, but if he can punish defenders for going under screens even occasionally, that would be a huge win for his on-court impact.
On the defensive side of the ball Jones has the lateral quickness and pesky hands to be an impactful defender at the point of attack but his screen navigation will need to take major strides for that to truly come to fruition. He has some cool moments sticking his hands in and disrupting ball handlers but too often runs directly into screens or ends up trailing the ball handler with no avenue to disrupt the play. Given his smaller frame and limited wingspan, recovering to contest from behind isn’t an option. For Jones to truly be a good point-of-attack defender he will need to be excellent slithering through screens and staying with ball-handlers. Whether that is in the cards remains to be seen, but it is one thing I will be looking for as the season kicks into gear.
Tre strikes me as someone who should be on this team for the foreseeable future. He is entering his third year in the league but has made it into this “Young Vet” section by the soundness of his game and the steadying presence he should provide to this young core. He will be a useful rotation piece as a bench guard for a good team one day but in the meantime his ball security, rim pressure and heady defense make him a great fit alongside any of the young wings on the roster. Players need proper context in order to develop and while Tre may not project as the long-term answer to “Who is the Point Guard of the future?” question, his steady-handed competence should help put Keldon, Devin and Sochan in a better developmental context this season.
Isaiah Roby
Roby was an intriguing addition to the roster this off-season. He had a solid run with OKC the past two years and is the kind of player I have been wanting the Spurs to sign for nearly a decade.
NBA defense is a complicated mess of variables that can be difficult to distinguish from one another, but if one thing has proven true in San Antonio over the last four years it is that having rim protection and point of attack defense alone is not enough to build a playoff caliber defense.
Dejounte and Derrick White made up what was possibly the best defensive backcourt in the league to begin last season with Jakob Poeltl manning the paint as a Top-10 rim protector, but even with those three on the court the Spurs struggled to cobble together a league average defense. These three musketeers could not do the job alone and ultimately were sunk by significantly below league average forward defense. It didn’t help they lacked a good option for rolling out small-ball lineups to try and keep up offensively.
Roby may not solve all these issues and by no means is he a flawless defensive player, but he does offer a package of skills this team has desperately needed for a long time. He is an athletic forward who thrived the past two years playing at the five in small ball lineups. OKC was by no means a winning context, but he was far and away their best option at the center spot for a few different reasons.
Roby moves incredibly well for someone his size. His flexibility on drives was impressive and he had flashes of finishing craft around the hoop. Most NBA big men cannot keep up with him on the perimeter and he was able to use his handle to get to the rim in advantageous situations. He became a much more effective shooter from beyond the arc this year and that progress will need to continue in the Lone Star State for him to have a similar offensive impact.
He’s shown an ability to pass out of the short-roll and was largely successful as a dive man playing in OKC. He has a size disadvantage playing at the five, but his length and athleticism help make up for the size mismatch when finishing in the paint. He isn’t someone I would ever want starting at the five, but he should allow for the team to throw out some funky bench lineups with defensive versatility, something San Antonio has been unable to do in the recent past.
Roby is a decent rim protector, event creator and rebounder for a hybrid big and his athleticism should allow for some interesting usage on the defensive side of the floor. In the grand scheme of things, he was put in a good situation to develop on-court in OKC but, due to their roster constraints, was put in some compromising positions he shouldn’t have to deal with on a more complete roster. Roby is the kind of guy I love having around in a rebuild; young and affordable with an understanding for the game and how to use his body that can translate in a multitude of lineups. He isn’t someone I would project to start for the next good Spurs team, but I think he has more than proved to be a capable rotation piece at the NBA level. Having functional athletes at the forward spot is an incredibly important aspect of teambuilding and this off-season showed a newfound commitment to finding those missing pieces. The Spurs didn’t morph into the Toronto Raptors overnight but adding multiple players that can feasibly guard opposing 4s is an enormous step toward building an effective defense in the future.
Taking Upside Swings
San Antonio entered the draft this year with three first- round picks, something I would not have believed to start the season. While the team took a safer approach with their first pick in taking Jeremy Sochan, they swung for the fences with their next two selections. Those picks, coupled with a heady signing last off-season, will round out this upside swing section.
The success of the rebuild goes beyond the development of these three, but it could look drastically different if even one is able to reach a higher-end outcome. Taking calculated risks is the name of the game for small market teams with little avenue to acquire a star in the free agent market. While they are much more of a gamble than a sure thing, sometimes all you need is a little luck.
Malaki Branham
Branham was one of the names rising up draft boards as the college season ended and for good reason. He had one of the most efficient freshman seasons scoring the basketball in recent memory at 14 points per game with shooting splits of 50/42/83. Be it out of isolation, running a pick and roll or spotting up on the perimeter, Branham put the ball in the hoop at an eye-catching rate, consistently torching Big 10 defenses the second half of the season.
Upside is an interesting and complicated term to define. Many people gravitate towards athleticism when talking about players who have substantial growth potential, but it is rarely that simple. I tend to look towards players who have outlier indicators, from athleticism to coordination to shooting touch. Outlier growth potential is the proverbial Waldo for which you are searching when projecting who could outperform their draft position. Branham’s touch fits the bill, as few players enter the league with such a positive shooting projection. Branham’s ability to shoot, regardless of the contest, offers the potential for unexpected growth..
He is going to shoot the ball, but to what degree? Will he develop into someone who can consistently create his own shot? Is he going to be able to hit pull up threes with regularity? Branham’s touch is such an outlier it is hard not to project development in other areas. Does the touch forebode future handle development? There allure of pull-up shot making potential is there, but there will need to be some amount of unexpected improvement in his handle.
There are two things I will be looking for this season when watching Branham, starting with the growth of his handle. It was functional at the college level for what he was asked to do but he very rarely self-created attempts at the rim and doesn’t have much of a space creation bag. Is he going to be able to dribble against NBA level defenders closing out to his jumper? Will he be able to run a pick and roll without losing control of the ball from a well-timed dig? Is he going to be able to operate in confined spaces?
Handle development is not something that comes overnight but it is possible with proper time and attention. For Branham to hit his highest-level outcomes he is going to need to not only create space for jumper but create advantages for others. He is an effective and willing passer, but passing windows close when you don’t put the defense into rotation. If his creation doesn’t improve to that level, he should still be a positive offensive player simply from the floor spacing he provides.
The last question revolves around his defensive impact. He was okay defending in isolation at Ohio State but really struggled to navigate screens both on and off-ball. If the potential for becoming an on-ball creator offensively begins to look less likely he will need to become an average defender at worst to be a high impact rotation piece. Unless we are talking about the elite, offensive specialists need to have some amount of defensive impact to truly contribute to winning basketball, particularly in a playoff setting. Branham has a skill set that could translate into a productive complimentary role with time, but will he have the necessary growth defensively to make that worthwhile for his team?
Blake Wesley
Watching Notre Dame basketball this season was quite the roller coaster, an up and down experience captained by one Blake Wesley. Outside of Jaden Ivey there may not have been anyone else in this class that was as effective at getting into the paint as Wesley. Amongst High-Major athletes that attempted at least 150 shots at the rim last season Wesley had the 10th lowest assisted percentage at 27%. There is no skill more important to a competent NBA offense than rim pressure, something this current Spurs roster exceedingly lacks.
Wesley is an interesting fit alongside Devin Vassell as he provides a needed downhill spark. The only issue with his college tape was how the ball just did not go through the hoop as often as you would like, and with a shooting split of 47/30/66, that may be an understatement. Wesley ranked second to last in rim efficiency amongst all drafted players, shooting a paltry 51.2%.
This season is going to be an incredibly interesting one for Wesley and where he spends most of his time will be telling as to how the team views his starting point. This roster needs someone with his ability to get to the rim and force defensive rotations but more than that, they need an offensive system that is conducive to positive development for their young wings.
Wesley was a whirlwind of energy at Notre Dame and while it led to some astounding highlights there is reason to wonder how well it immediately translates to NBA basketball. His shot is going to require serious refinement over the next few years, but he is not shy about getting up shots despite his relative inefficiency. Giving the keys to Wesley is an interesting proposition that would likely help the Spurs towards their goal of obtaining the highest possible draft pick, but it may not be best for his development or the teammates around him.
Decision making is going to make or break Wesley’s time here in San Antonio; if he can be trusted to find open teammates and trim the fat from his shot diet he will fit like a glove in this offensive system. Wesley’s development as a creator is the biggest variable in the direction of this rebuild. If he hits, the team has their point guard of the future and one that fits seamlessly with their surrounding talent. If not, it may be difficult for him to find a consistent spot in the rotation moving forward, even on a rebuilding team.
Wesley’s on-court projected impact is buoyed by his defensive effort and intensity. Very few guards with his level of usage and lack of experience can provide a positive impact on the defensive end, making his season at Notre Dame all the more impressive. There are certainly some loose moments, but his lateral athleticism, length and anticipation allow him to disrupt an offense in a variety of ways. He will need to grow in terms of consistency, but if he is able to continue to grow, we may be looking at the next great Spurs defender at the point guard spot, following in the footsteps of the often-comped Dejounte Murray.
I am a Wesley believer and hope he gets time this year to work through some of the kinks, even if that time is best spent in Austin rather than San Antonio. He’s the kind of upside swing this team needed to take, and fortunately the Spurs have a wealth of experience in developing skinny, lightning quick guards with a penchant for flashy highlights. The necessary growth is going to take time and will be a bumpy road at times, but the confidence and energy that Wesley exudes on the court should help him to weather the storms of his development path.
Zach Collins
Collins was signed in San Antonio last off-season in a deal that was relatively controversial at the time. Still only 23, the former top 10 pick had his career derailed by injuries and spent nearly 2 full seasons on the sidelines before suiting up for the team midway through last season. His first year in San Antonio was not particularly effective due to the sheer amount of rust that needed to be worked off, but the flashes were there of what once made him one of the more intriguing young big men in the game.
Collins has the potential to be versatile on both ends of the court, stretching the floor on offense and making good passing reads while defending the rim and switching out on to the perimeter. The only problem is, he didn’t truly excel in any of these areas last year. In fact, every area will need serious improvement to become functional at an NBA level.
As we enter the new season the thing I will be watching most closely is his how his body has recovered. Staying healthy will remain a concern for the foreseeable future, but beyond that, is he going to look more comfortable moving out on the court? He seemed to have lost some of his lateral quickness after recovering from a series of lower body injuries, but with a fully healthy off-season there is hope he could return closer to his previous form.
His shot from the perimeter is another area that will need to make strides over the off-season. Collins is not a particularly efficient scorer in the paint for someone of his size and for him to have a positive offensive impact it would help to be a viable threat from distance. Having a center that can legitimately space the floor is worth its weight in gold, especially when trying to open the floor for more offensively limited wings and guards, but that is a high bar to reach.
Will Collins ever be able to shoot well enough to stretch opposing bigs away from the rim? The answer to that is a resounding “maybe,” although it is admittedly less likely to happen than the inverse. The shot looks good mechanically but there is a serious lack of confidence taking it that may be more indicative of his actual level as a shooter. It could happen, but there is a reason shooting centers are such a valuable resource. There just aren’t many players in the league who can do it at an impactful level.
Collins is the ultimate second draft upside swing, if he is able to find his way back to the developmental arc he flashed in Portland it changes the entire dynamic of the roster. It would allow for the team to shop Jakob Poeltl with the knowledge of having a feasible replacement already in house, a replacement with the potential to allow for more versatile schemes on both ends of the court. By no means is that the likely outcome, but the potential reward makes the gamble all the more palatable.
Valuing Short Term Flings
These guys aren’t going to be here when the Spurs exit their rebuild and start to make a run at the playoffs, but they still offer value to this team in the immediate. Having steady vets to set the tone for a young team is incredibly important for any rebuild and this one is no different.
There is some amount of positional overlap with the vets in this section and the young guys the team is looking to develop. Their presence may limit the amount of playing time for some of the prospects on the roster, but they are not without worth to this team or, hopefully one day, on the trade market.
Doug McDermott
There is certainly value to having someone like McDermott on a team that is lacking scoring punch, even if his fit next to Keldon in the frontcourt is questionable at best. From the jump last year, you could tell the team was hell-bent on heavily involving McDermott in the offense and with that came mixed results. He endured a few brutal cold spells shooting from the floor but still ended the year at over 42% from three, an impressive number given how inconsistent it felt during the season.
He provided some much needed spacing early in the year, but his offensive impact did not make up for his negative defensive contributions. McDermott is not particularly good attacking the glass on either end of the court and was put in a TON of ball screen actions by opposing offenses. He provided a target for teams to attack both in space and off screens while the surrounding roster lacked the necessary help on the wings needed to make up for it. A lineup with Keldon and Doug at the forward spots simply did not get it done this year and while he does offer a release valve for an offense stuck in a rut, I would hope we see less of that combination in the coming season.
McDermott is signed for nearly $14 million per year over the next two years. That isn’t a terrible contract and is one that could easily be moved to a contender looking to improve their spacing, but at what cost? I highly doubt any team would be willing to give up even a heavily protected first to trade for him unless significant dead money were to come back to SA. Taking on bad money is a viable option considering the current state of the franchise, but it does make finding a workable deal more difficult.
Very few players choose to come to San Antonio in free agency and McDermott is one of the more noteworthy signings for the franchise in the last decade. That must be considered when cobbling together trade machine deals looking to offload the vet. In my eyes it would be bad practice to ship him out for little return unless he is particularly interested in playing on a different team.
Relationships matter in the league more than fans want to admit; there is a reason the team gave Pau Gasol a three-year deal at the tail end of his NBA career despite only having played one season in the Silver and Black. He chose to come to San Antonio when he didn’t have to, and the team wanted to repay that trust. I would expect to see a similar ethos in regards to McDermott’s future with the franchise. As much as I would love to lean into the young players we added at his position, I think the team will be hard pressed to move him. For a franchise that highly values character and loyalty, it’s easy to see why.
Only time will tell, but I expect him to be back next season unless he is a part of a larger deal and that is perfectly fine. As long as he is not playing 30+ minutes a game he should provide value on a roster devoid of spacing at the four and is by all means a pleasant person to have around. The sky is not falling if McDermott is still on the roster entering next off-season when he will become an expiring deal with significantly more trade value to opposing teams around the league.
Josh Richardson
When Derrick White was traded to Boston at the deadline this season it was one of the more shocking trades in recent Spurs memory. White had cemented himself as a fan favorite both on the court and in the community. As one of the most amicable people to ever come through San Antonio, it was difficult to see him traded but the move signaled this front office was finally seeing the writing on the wall.
The return, a first-round pick that would later become Blake Wesley, a Top-1 protected pick swap in 2028 and Josh Richardson felt like fair value at the time and could look even better in a year. Richardson was good during his time in San Antonio last year. He shot 44% from three, played solid defense and had a positive assist-to-turnover ratio. The Spurs were significantly better with Richardson on the court this past season and I would expect that to continue.
Unlike McDermott, Richardson should have significant value on the trade market. He only has one year left on his deal so there should be more urgency to move him before this season’s deadline. While he did provide a positive impact last season, it will be difficult to get San Antonio’s youth movement on the court if he is receiving the kind of minute load his output deserves.
Would a team give up a protected first for Richardson? I think that is entirely reasonable if the Spurs are willing to take on dead salary in his stead. He is a two-way wing that should be able to plug into any contender’s rotation and provide solid minutes off the bench or as a spot starter.
I really like his game and he has been a particularly good locker room fit with this team. I would love for him to play in San Antonio for the foreseeable future but that just does not feel like the best option for him or for the team. The team will most likely look to trade him during the season similar Thad Young last year but that is a precarious place to be.
Last year was Richardson’s best season shooting the basketball of his entire career. If he were to fall from shooting 41% down to the 33-35% he shot the previous three seasons it will be a lot more difficult to find a trade package that makes sense. Sometimes it is best to strike when the iron is hot and this feels like one of those times, even if I would be sad to see him leave town.
Gorgui Dieng
Dieng is of a lower profile than rest of the bunch here due to his age and the relative lack of impact over the last few seasons but he will fill a valuable role nonetheless. This team has very little traditional size at the center position and having a third big that can play competent minutes is a major boon from where the team was last season.
The ideal scenario of Zack Collins staying healthy, improving after a season of getting his sea legs under him and holding down the backup center position all season feels very optimistic. There is a lot of “if” in that proposition, so adding a veteran that can play spot minutes or take over the backup five entirely is incredibly helpful.
Dieng has grown as a shooter late in his career, shooting 42% on over 6 attempts per 36 minutes and that comfortability beyond the arc should help him fit in to a variety of lineups next season. He is more paint-bound defensively but has been effective enough crashing the glass and defending the rim to remain a viable option off the bench. What he lacks in upside he provides in consistent production, something that will be necessary as the Collins redemption tour hits the expected speed bumps.
Teams struggle to put out competent lineups without a real big if they don’t have the requisite talent on the wings to make up for the size disadvantage, and San Antonio did not have that last year. They added quite a few pieces that could profile well into that role, but they are all young with little meaningful experience under their belts.
If one of Poeltl or Collins goes down with an injury (this will almost certainly happen with two seven-footers, it’s just hard to keep them healthy) Dieng will be a more than capable stopgap option. He won’t be long for the Alamo city, but he provides value in maintaining a workable structure when the players ahead of him miss time during the year.
Hoping for Nice Things
Our final section consists of guys on the cut line or who will be playing primarily with Austin next year. Unlike in years past, the team has filled out the back of the roster with viable rotation bets at valuable positions. How many of these guys will stick on the roster and how many will be left by the wayside? It is difficult to predict, but I fully expect at least one of these guys to play their way into being a part of the long-term plan for the team. If there is one thing all the players to followhave in common it is this; : they all need to improve shooting the basketball and those that don’t will have trouble finding the court in San Antonio.
Dominic Barlow
Dom Barlow is easily the person I am most looking forward to watching next year from this section. He entered his time at OTE as a fringe prospect but played his way onto draft boards throughout the course of the season. While the Spurs traded away their second round pick this year, signing Barlow as an UDFA more than made up for the loss of value. He is someone I wanted the team to take at 38 and should have a real chance to stick on this roster after signing a two-way deal this summer.
The sell for Barlow is a simple one: he moves well laterally for his size, knows where to be and has some tangible upside on the offensive end. He won’t turn 20 years old until May of 2023 so I would anticipate some rough patches during the season as he grows into his body and role on the court. I would not expect him to get a ton of run with the big club after the acquisitions of Sochan and Roby this off-season, but there is a real opportunity for him to grow into a valuable rotation cog for years to come.
He is not the most explosive athlete, particularly in the half court, but that should not be an enormous hindrance for his usage at the next level. The shot has a way to go but he was comfortable taking the occasional three in summer league and during his year at OTE. It looks good, though the volume leaves a lot to be desired. He isn’t going to get by defenders with his burst and as a result will need to force closeouts to provide any kind of rim pressure. On the longer time horizon of a pending rebuild that feels like an attainable outcome that would vastly increase his chances of one day cracking the rotation.
I am most excited to see how he grows as a passer in the half court. He has a good feel for the game and vision for his position that should continue to blossom with experience in a more structured environment. If he can grow into a player that can make reads out of the short roll or operate as a semi-hub for the offense at the top of the key, his NBA translation becomes a lot cleaner. That feels like it could happen sooner than respectable shooting volume and I hope to see him have an opportunity to grow as a passer next year in Austin.
Defensively Barlow was fine jumping passing lanes and disrupting offenses but what excites me most is his potential in switch situations or guarding larger wings on the perimeter. As stated, this team hasn’t had anyone who can guard forward creators in a long time and now the roster is seemingly flush with viable options in the long run. I wish Barlow had a little more vertical pop when defending the rim but his ability to switch (in moderation) up and down the lineup should offer a pathway to a positive defensive impact as he grows into his body and role.
If Barlow can shoot it at any level, he should develop into a lower end rotation player with real upside past that if the pieces begin to come together offensively. The higher end outcomes with Barlow result in a player that can space the floor, make high-level reads as a roll man and take opposing big men off the bounce, all while providing increased defensive scheme versatility. That is the kind of player that can stick on a roster for a long time and someone I am glad the team decided to invest in immediately after the draft.
Jordan Hall
Jordan Hall is a playmaking forward prospect who might, like his patron saint Kyle Anderson, use his versatility to stake claim to a long-term spot in the Spurs rotation. He had two productive seasons at St. Joes with a versatile skill set for a player his size. Not the most athletic prospect, Hall is a more cerebral player who possesses real skill with the ball in his hands. Standing at 6’8”’ in shoes with an 8’8” standing reach, Hall has legitimate forward size while being able to run an offense, putting up over 5.5 assists per game both seasons in college.
His shot from three looks better on paper than it does on film but the volume (~6 per game) and efficiency (~36%) are encouraging. I expect it to take a little time for the shot to translate to a deeper line in the pros and playing against better defenders, but the ingredients are there for it to at least become passable. I am not overly enthused by this possibility, but it is clearly within the realm of potential outcomes.
Defensively Hall has good timing disrupting passing lanes and making plays. He is lighter than Barlow and will most likely be relegated to forward/wing minutes rather than shifting up to play the five but he should be able to provide heady and impactful defense there in time.
More than anything I am hoping Austin lets him run more of the offense this season. If there is one thing that sets Hall apart from other prospects of his ilk it is his ability to actually do something with the ball at his size. If that can be developed and refined to a workable level the team should have an interesting rotation piece moving forward.
Odds are only one of Barlow and Hall will stick on this roster long term, as is the nature of developing guys on two-way deals. I would feel more comfortable betting on Barlow due to his positional versatility and upside defensively, though both are fun and worthwhile bets to make. Forwards matter, it is nice to see the team taking shots on players at the most valuable position in the league. These are the gambles worth taking.
Joe Wieskamp
While there may have been options on the board I preferred to Wieskamp (Brandon Boston and Sharife Cooper in particular), it was hard to be upset about the selection. Taking second round swings on wing shooters is always a viable path and his athletic testing at the combine was genuinely impressive.
Last season wasn’t the most exciting in terms of his on-court production for either Austin or San Antonio, but Joe has shown an ability to fit in. The shot mechanics are a little slow and he had some difficulty getting up attempts at the rate you would prefer from a shooting specialist, something that will need to be addressed in the coming season.
What I will be watching for this season is twofold:, increased volume and increased versatility. He spent a lot of the season in Austin spotting up from deep and providing a safety valve for the offense which is a valuable skill but one that would require a much greater defensive impact to be viable at an NBA level.
I don’t foresee the defense coming along in a major way, as that just isn’t a development I would feel comfortable expecting. There are flashes of physicality when switched onto larger forwards but the lack of lateral quickness and help instincts makes me very hesitant to bet on a positive defensive outcome. Despite his impressive combine testing Wieskamp does not have the athleticism or wingspan typically found in impactful perimeter defenders nor the rotational instincts and technique needed to make up for it.
If that is true, his value is going to need to come on the other end of the court. Acting as a spot up shooter is nice but for him to provide the kind of impact necessary to carve out a rotation spot he will need to start putting greater strain on the defense by running off of actions and shooting off movement. I am not confident his mechanics will allow for that to happen but it does feel like the most likely pathway to regular minutes. The team signed him to a guaranteed deal for this season, but the pre-season has not been particularly encouraging. After not entering their final game of the pre-season I wouldn’t be surprised if Wieskamp is the final cut entering the season, despite his newly signed deal.
Keita Bates-Diop
KBD was one of my favorite players to watch from last season. He is incredibly long and simply knows where to be on the court. He moves well without the ball on offense and has an ability to find seams in a defense that can help cover for his lack of shooting.
That shooting is going to be the bellwether for if he makes the roster this coming season. It is hard to play him significant minutes next to Jakob if neither can space the floor, even if the defensive impact is a generally positive one. His length allows him to disrupt ball handlers and passing lanes alike, he’s intuitive on that end and handles his responsibilities well, but I am not sure that is enough to guarantee a roster spot.
He has grown on the offensive end during his time in San Antonio, finding a nice role as a cutter and off-ball mover despite his hesitance shooting from deep. He has worked well as a connective piece and has a penchant for making quick, sound decisions when he gets the ball. Bates-Diop is someone the coaching staff can trust to go out there and find seams in the defense regardless of the lineup, his versatility on both ends is his biggest strength and may be enough to earn a place on the opening day roster.
He has started the preseason more confident shooting the ball from distance. If that continues, he should lock up a rotation spot, much less a roster spot. This roster has a ton of new faces at his position, but you can never have too many forwards in today’s NBA.
Romeo Langford
Finally, we have reached the biggest wild card of the off-that isseason. Langford has struggled to stay on the court due to injury woes and struggled shooting the ball to start his career. He got so little opportunity on-court last season due to an ill-timed injury it is hard to determine how the franchise views him moving forward.
His lack of a consistent shot and the duplicative nature of his skill set with other young players on the roster lands him squarely on the cut line entering camp. SA is going to need to waive someone before the season starts and while Langford may have seemed like the most likely cut entering camp the pre-season has made that equation slightly more complicated.
He moves well defensive and is strong for his frame, he has done a good job defending perimeter scorers and may be the person best suited on the roster for such a task. I still don’t entirely buy the jump shot, but his ability to defend and provide some amount of rim pressure leaves room for some additional upside if he sticks around into the season.
It is difficult to see him earning his way into the rotation even if the team has significant injury problems. Vassell, Branham, Wesley and Richardson should all be ahead of him on the depth chart, offering little opportunity for playing time. Langford has an interesting archetype with his on-ball defense and creation potential shown in college, but the shot has never come around and without it the options for on-court usage are minimal. Langford is an interesting project who I would like to find a home on a roster somewhere if he is cut from San Antonio, there is more developmental meat on the bone here than most players near the bottom of the depth chart.
Back to Chasing Rings
To quote the modern poet Doctur Dot “Just yesterday, I had everything. Everything was nothing, but I ain’t complain”. There is not another song lyric in existence to better describe the situation the Spurs found themself entering this off-season. Trading away yet another developmental success story was hard, but despite how impressive Dejounte’s growth was last year it did not significantly alter the outlook of this team. At the time it felt like everything, but in reality, it was probably closer to nothing if the end goal is championship contention.
Building a contender is a long and arduous process that requires more than just accumulating talent. It is about finding not just any star to lead your franchise; it’s about finding the RIGHT star to build your future around. A team spearheaded by Dejounte, Keldon, Devin and the three rookies very well could have made a playoff push in the coming years, but even the most optimistic fan would tell you the odds of becoming a true contender were close to none. Brian Wright and Company decided pulling the rug out from under this current nucleus was the best option moving forward despite what it meant for the on–court product during what may be Greg Popovich’s last season. I find that to be generally good business.
In my living memory this team has never been in such a dramatic state of flux and that is a good thing. The roster was going to need drastic changes to reach the kind of heights they have set out to achieve and making those decisions sooner rather than later should benefit them in the long run.
Extending Keldon this off-season was a telling move about where this front office thinks the team is and their general philosophy surrounding the rebuild. Retaining the talent you have drafted and developed is incredibly important for any franchise. While he could return significant value on the trade market, Keldon should have more value to this team than others around the league.
The Spurs will find themselves with their highest draft pick in 25 years next off-season and whoever they select will immediately become the prized jewel of the rebuild. The ability to surround that player with talent from day 1 is greater than any draft capital that could be obtained on the trade market.
Having a ready-made roster full of competent NBA level players will not only help provide a nurturing developmental situation for their keystone but it will help accelerate the journey to competitiveness. Time and time again we have seen teams draft a sure-fire star only to squander their stockpile of long-term assets in an attempt to create a competent roster before finding themselves with nowhere to go.
San Antonio shouldn’t run into that problem any time soon. This roster is built to insulate a newly drafted centerpiece with young complementary talents throughout the rotation. Whoever this team drafts will be entering an environment suitable for growth and a roster built to grow with him. The Spurs are attempting to walk the thin line between rebuild and reboot, the margins are incredibly slim and there is little room for error. With that said, they have put themselves in a situation uniquely built for long-term success if luck is to go their way.
This season is going to be a long one that is difficult to watch at times, but that is the price of building for great rather than good. I for one am more than willing to pay it.
All Statistics provided by https://www.basketball-reference.com and https://www.barttorvik.com
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