Why San Antonio Should Keep Their Veteran Big Through the Rebuild
Heading into the season, few knew what to expect from the San Antonio Spurs. A Gregg Popovich-coached team is never going to be dismal, but with the Dejounte Murray trade, it was fair to infer that they might be looking for a high pick in the upcoming generational-appearing draft class.
However, the Spurs appear to have too many up-and-coming players to truly bottom out, as they have started the year with impressive wins on the road over Philadelphia, Minnesota, and Indiana. The Spurs have a plethora of intriguing guards and wings such as Devin Vassell, Keldon Johnson, and Tre Jones who appear to be taking leaps or consolidating on an already impressive developmental curve.
It is, however, another Spurs player who has caught my eye.
Jakob Poeltl originally arrived at the Spurs from the Toronto Raptors when they opted to trade away Kawhi Leonard. DeMar DeRozan was the centerpiece of the package they got back, but ironically it looks as if Poeltl is going to usher in a new era of the San Antonio Spurs. Poeltl’s passing, positioning, and all-around excellence have helped the Spurs to a surprising start, and he has built upon a 21-22 season where he took a major leap forward in his all-around game.
Since the moment Dejounte Murray was traded, there have been whispers and even expectations that the Spurs would eventually move Poeltl. Such a move right now would be silly, as the Spurs run their motion offense through him and he is making everyone around him better. Though of course, the individual Spurs players deserve credit for their own play, Poeltl’s unselfishness and fluidity make things easier for everyone.
San Antonio’s Egalitarian Offense
Though high-level basketball can often come down to complex schemes and dribble-drive moves, there is a huge argument that doing the little things right can really move the needle. Throughout the Gregg Popovich era, San Antonio has always excelled in the little things on offense. These include cutting, making the right move off-ball, screening, lifting from the corner, and so on and so forth. This iteration of the Spurs doesn’t run a ton of set plays, but rather they run a gorgeous motion offense with cutting, screening, and passing. Poeltl is often at the center of this.
As a team, the Spurs are 7th in passes per game, 1st in assists per game, 1st in potential assists per game and 4th in secondary assists per game. More notable is Poeltl’s role. The only center making more passes per game is Nikola Jokic. These don’t always turn into assists, but this is more proof that the Spurs aren’t just taking the first shot available. They are using Poeltl as a hub to bend defenses with cutters, and being patient and allowing their young players to work through progressions like NFL Quarterbacks.
Among the most used lineup combinations in the NBA, The San Antonio Spurs’ starting lineup ranks 1st in shot quality. This is a metric giving weighting to shots at the rim and three-point land, but also taking into account a variety of other factors as opposed to just merely labeling a shot good because of where it was taken. The Spurs are 15th in offensive efficiency, per ESPN. But given their shot quality, there is a decent argument that they can improve upon this as they are hitting the right players in the right areas of the court.
Let’s look at the first concept any team running things through a center will use: Delay.
Delay is where the center has the ball at the top of the key and has two players on either side of him. The most common read out of this is Chicago action, which involves a guard coming off a screen to take a dribble handoff. On this occasion, Vassell dives to the rim to take the help defender, knowing Gobert will be in drop, The Spurs end up with a wide-open look from three.
Delay action is hugely popular because it strains the defense by forcing centers out onto the three-point line. You can flow into a variety of actions from the delay outline. It’s also a good way of keeping multiple players involved and especially for teaching multiple young guards to read and react in different scenarios. This makes it make even more sense that the Spurs run it often. They also regularly run it down the stretch as you can see below.
Here, the Spurs mesh two of the most effective and modern phenomena in NBA offenses: Delay Action, and empty-side pick-and-rolls. Devin Vassell clears out, creating the Chicago action. PJ Tucker’s tight coverage is read well by Poeltl who instead flows into an empty side action with Tre Jones. Poeltl’s fluidity and quick processing speed make these actions hugely profitable for the Spurs.
The Spurs don’t just use delay in half-court, some of their out-of-bounds plays also just immediately flow into delay action which shows their desire to run such a free-flowing offense.
Here, the Spurs have Poeltl flash to the top of the key and run delay action with Richardson emerging from the paint on a sort of quasi-exit screen. They will sometimes go to this in the half-court but a lot of their out bounds plays just involve them flowing into motion offense as opposed to running some diverse screening action. This is becoming more common.
I mentioned their desire to create empty-side actions which are becoming extremely common throughout the NBA. Here, they run a pick-and-fade for Jakob Poeltl which isn’t immediately a threat. But they flow into an empty side hand-off action to get Doug McDermott a great look against Rudy Gobert’s drop coverage.
On the next play, the Spurs go to the extreme with their perimeter movement and cutting to get an empty-side action.
They pitch to Poeltl and two players make decoy cuts before they get their best player Keldon Johnson into a two-man game. He reads the coverage and takes the open three.
The Spurs empty side game is usually flowed into with real pace. Speed of action is probably a better indicator of pace than the raw ‘pace’ statistic which is just calculated by the number of possessions. But the Spurs’ young guns make this action quick and that draws respect. On the play below, the Spurs create the empty side action and Tobias Harris is just a step behind his man. This forces Embiid to show on the ball handler and from there the Spurs create an open corner three on the weak side. Their action created an advantage and their overall principles helped sustain it.
One might argue that any big on the Spurs roster can do this. While that is somewhat true in the case of Zach Collins, what sets Poeltl apart is his individual passing ability and his mix of fluidity and aggression on offense. He is by no means an elite individual scorer but his footwork and power means he can take the ball to the rack and finish irrespective of the support or quality of opportunity he is getting. Take the play below as an example.
It’s the same two-man game as before. This time, Minnesota covers the two-man game relatively well but Doug McDermott doesn’t see Tre Jones excellent exit cut to the corner. Poeltl gets it on the block against the multi-time defensive player of the year winner in Rudy Gobert but he backs him down and shows real craft to hit the reverse layup. Poeltl is shooting 76 percent at the rim this year which is the best mark of his career. Though Poeltl lacks the verticality and pure speed to really ever be a league leader in frequency of shots at the rim, he still makes the most of his 70th percentile volume of shots at the rim.
Poeltl also has shown consistent touch in hitting floaters. Given the fact he’s not a vertical athlete who will overwhelm NBA Centers with sheer power on a regular basis this is huge. He’s currently 53rd percentile as a finisher from short mid-range per Cleaning the Glass. But I’d expect this to rebound a bit given he’s never finished with a mark that low in his entire career. He’s an extremely high volume short-mid range attempts guy which comes down to the fact he’s usually lurking around the elbows and high post as opposed to aggressively diving towards the rim.
Something I love about the Spurs is they continue to move even when they see a player trying to go to work.
Here, the Spurs use Doug McDermott on a curl to open up the weak side for a two-man game. Knowing Lopez will drop deep, Poeltl flashes high and hits a high-level floater. He also had the option to feed Josh Richardson for an open three off the wide ball screen. Again, this further conveys how Poeltl is a hub that the Spurs other players flow around and quite literally give you death by a thousand cuts.
Poeltl is also the best passing big on the Spurs roster by a wide margin. He’s able to fit the ball into tough windows and his mesh of processing speed and overall aggressiveness means he can find windows throughout the shot clock. Generally, something San Antonio loves to do is run split-cutters off of him. These are incredibly hard to defend but it’s also a great way of keeping multiple players involved and feeding multiple mouths. This also meshes with something I believe to be Poeltl’s most overlooked skill- his ability to flash to the right areas and play effectively from these areas.
The staple play of the 2022-2023 San Antonio Spurs is simply split cuts off their center who positions himself at the elbow. Split cuts are merely cuts in different directions away from a ball handler, usually a big man. They are extremely hard to defend and given the Spurs have an array of fast-young players who need their reps, it makes sense to spam this play at a high rate.
On this play, everyone is moving. They attempt to have one player clear to the weak side to create that two-man empty side look they love. The Clippers defense stays extremely tight. When Poeltl opens the offense up to the weak side, Keita Bates-Diop punishes Reggie Jackson’s stunt to help on Norman Powell’s man, and Poeltl fires a perfect pass into KBD while the defense is rotating, also known as a proactive pass.
This wasn’t some one-off pass for Jakob Poeltl, he’s improved in this area drastically in San Antonio. The narrowness of his scoring profile means he will never be an elite playmaking big man but given most teams would want him as a screen and dive big, this well-above-average level of passing and playmaking is highly valuable.
Here, the Spurs flow into a two-man action that doesn’t involve the center. The ball generally will find its way somewhere else given the nature of the Spurs’ motion game, so they flow back into Poeltl and run split cuts. Three split cuts eventually end with Richardson getting a wide-open three out of the same principles the famed flex offense would utilize for many years in college basketball. Split cuts will often create traffic and screens don’t always need to be set simply because the player movement is having the same effect.
Something I like about the Spurs is the fact they flow into effective actions when the original actions break down. This is something that isn’t typical of young teams. Take the play below as an example.
They end up in a position of stagnation, but Poeltl goes into Chicago action to free up Keldon Johnson to go into that two-man game with Devin Vassell. Getting your two best players in an action is a good idea, but creating traffic and forcing the defense to constrict into the paint just makes these actions even more fruitful.
Poeltl also is beginning to show consistent flashes of reading off-ball defenders, which makes the Spurs cut heavy offense even more effective.
Aaron Gordon senses the two-man DHO game coming so tries to get ahead of it. Poeltl plays it perfectly though, he sets Gordon up for the hand-off then hits Keldon Johnson on the backdoor cut. As I previously mentioned, Poeltl isn’t ever going to be a top tier playmaker, but he’s still showing passing evolution and executing some really nice high level-reads.
Overall, Poeltl is extremely valuable offensively. He’s relatively fluid and this meshes well with his passing and overall reading of the court. The Spurs offense runs through him, even though he isn’t the number one scoring option. The numbers are fruitful for such a young team. The major limitation is his free-throw percentage which has been well below average his entire career. His lack of verticality isn’t really an issue assuming you have the right personnel.
Pick-and-roll heavy teams may not be the best use of his talents even with his short-roll passing because ultimately the lack of scoring could be costly. But teams who run diverse and creative off-ball offenses fit him like a glove. The Spurs’ offense would not work without his decisiveness, his fluidity, and his vision. The bail-out potential with his floaters is also extremely valuable to a young team that will no doubt have some broken possessions and makes some bad reads. His 88th percentile assist percentage summarises both his value and how emboldened his role is to this Spurs team.
The Defensive Anchor
Poeltl is perhaps more known on a national level for his defensive work. He’s been one of the better rim protectors and drop bigs in the NBA in recent years. Schematically, the Spurs generally run drop coverage. This simplifies things for their variety of young players who can theoretically use their athleticism to contest from behind and navigate through screens. They are third in drop coverage usage across the NBA.
Poeltl is one of a select group of players this season averaging one steal and one block per game. He impacts the game as a defender on multiple fronts and matches up well with a lot of the versatile big men in the NBA. Per Cleaning the Glass, Poeltl is in the 78th percentile for steal percentage and the 58th percentile for block percentage. I expect the block percentage to rise, given for the last three seasons he’s been at worst in the 88th percentile. He erases shots and seems to always be in the right position as you can see below.
Poeltl has legitimate bailout potential as a defender. Here, the Bucks flow into delay-chicago action on the sideline out of bounds play. Tre Jones ends up taking two bad angles so Jevon Carter has a free pass at Jakob Poeltl. Poeltl stays toe to toe with the driver the entire way and swats the shot away. Being able to erase mistakes is pivotal for a big man playing with such a young team as mistakes are bound to happen.
The best thing about Poeltl as a defender is his elite discipline, he just doesn’t seem to foul and that generally comes back to his positioning. If you set yourself up for success early and are in the right spot, you’re always less likely to foul. He’s in the 93rd percentile for foul percentage this season which is by far the highest mark of his career. The Spurs’ defensive rating overall is somewhat skewed by the fact they give up the fourth most transition opportunities in the NBA. In the half-court, they are a respectable 19th in defensive rating. This speaks well to Poeltl’s potential scalability to other teams should they choose to trade him.
Part of a re-tooling process is ensuring you sell on veterans at the right time to gain more assets and eventually open up opportunities for younger players. However, Poeltl is a really interesting test to this rule. He makes everyone else on the roster better with his passing and defensive positioning.
He also plays at quite a shallow position and matches up well with some of the more fluid fives which means the Spurs can justify playing small a lot of the time. Poeltl alters shots with his positioning and allows the Spurs’ young players to get steals and blocks. Generally, he opens up the playbook on both sides of the ball which is highly valuable to a team that has young players.
The solar system of the Spurs’ offense orbits around Poeltl at the elbow and the high post. His overall fluidity and willingness to make the right play is why the Spurs are surprising many people with how competitive they’ve been this year. The Spurs won’t fall apart if they trade him, but it’s hard to envision them finding anyone who is playing this well at a time that is right with everyone else on their roster.
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