This will be the first part of a monthly recap covering all rookie-scale deal Warriors players, looking at the stats, film, and everything in between. Keep an eye out for the November edition in, you guessed it, one month.
Note: Players are sorted chronologically by the time they were drafted; this is a ranking of these players in NO WAY. All stats will be points/rebs/assists/steals/blocks, splits will be 2PT/3PT/FT
Two timelines. It’s a topic you see often across Warriors media, especially on Twitter. After a championship run that carried four rookie-scale contracts on the roster, Golden State has upped the stakes, with almost half of their roster still on their first deal.
We know it can work. The veterans know what they are. But who amongst the young guys can step up? Who will get chances, and who will capitalize on those chances? For those that have already taken on bigger roles, how can they further build on that success?
Without any further pontificating, let’s check in on all the Warriors’ rookie-scale players, starting with their future star.
Jordan Poole, Guard
2022/23 Stats: 8 games (1 start), 19.8/2/6/1.7/0.2 per 75 poss, 58/32/80 splits, 25.3% AST, 1.74 ATO, .288 FTR, .538 3PR, -2.8 BPM
It’s no secret how much faith the Warriors have placed in Jordan Poole. His newly-minted extension confirms he is the future playmaking force for this team, a lead guard to take up the mantle once Steph can no longer wear the crown. Preparing for that role also fills the immediate need for a playmaker/initiator for the bench unit, but results have been mixed to begin the season.
Poole had exposure to that role last year down the stretch after Klay Thompson’s return, especially in the playoffs. He maintained his dynamism with those bench units. That lack of drop-off is both a testament to his skill and to how good that Warriors bench was this past season, especially from a spacing perspective.
That combined shooting from the forward group last year (36.7% combined on 5.5 attempts per game between Nemanja Bjelica and Otto Porter Jr.) helped clear the paint for the twitchy young guard to get downhill. So far, only JaMychal Green has provided any real spacing. Jonathan Kuminga has only attempted 4 threes in 8 games, and James Wiseman hasn’t taken any. Donte DiVincenzo and Moses Moody have done little to alleviate these concerns.
Take a look at this play here, and note the positioning of Denver’s defenders on the initial drive. No respect is given to the shooters (and why should it be?), creating an overly saturated paint for Poole to try and navigate. Yet he still finds a window, because he’s that good.
The issue of a lack of shooters compounds because Poole is the best off-ball shooter AND on-ball playmaker this bench has, and for obvious reasons cannot do both at once. Though things will surely even out as the season progresses, Poole has been taking an atypical amount of midrange shots relative to his past three seasons, as a result of both the bench’s need for self-creation and inability to get clean paint touches.
It’s not necessarily a bad thing because he is such a prolific shotmaker, but Golden State should be working to find a healthier balance in his shot diet.
You can see what the balance should be like when he gets minutes with the starters, and he’s able to flex on/off the ball from possession to possession instead of being relied upon for constant playmaking.
Defense: Show Us Something
There’s no sugarcoating this: Poole has been bad defensively. He can keep attention when on the ball and has some athletic tools, but is one of the worst off-ball defenders around the perimeter. He’s constantly in the middle of blown switches and communication while losing his man with all too much frequency. It simply has to be better for the bench defense to improve.
The physical tools are there. Now the mental side has to catch up.
Keep An Eye Out For…
Compared to the rest of the players on this list going forwards, I’ll be focusing on the micro instead of the macro. There’s no questioning his future stardom, but there is a question about the degree. For the next month, keep an eye on the bench spacing around Jordan, and how defenses situate themselves on his drives. On the defensive end, watch his communication on switches and off-ball activity, as both must improve sooner than later.
James Wiseman, Big
2022/23 Stats: 8 games (0 starts), 20.6/9.7/1.9/0/1.3 per 75 poss, 61/0/63 splits, 0.432 FTR, 15.3% TRB, 1.0 ATO, -3.9 BPM
Perhaps no player on this list has had more to glean from in these first few games. It’s apparent on almost every possession that Wiseman is looking healthy and spry. With every passing game, it becomes clearer that injuries severely hampered his on-court production when he was in the lineup.
What is also apparent is the clear compartmentalization of his offensive role. When playing his rookie season, we saw few (if any) games where the Warriors had a complete and deep roster capable of winning. A lack of internal competition and win/loss expectations gave him free rein to try things out. This season’s squad is trying to defend a title and can’t afford to give him that liberty anymore.
Wiseman is living around the rim offensively, and the results have been fun. His roll-man frequency has doubled from his rookie season, and though more numbers will need to be collected before it’s a definite trend, it’s clear that playing with more adept playmakers has been a major boon for his offensive efficiency.
There are also some signs of trusting him as a designed playmaker. Though results have been mixed so far, it is a hint towards the plan this team has for James.
It’s also been nice to see aggressive and technically sound screening from Wiseman due to his increased confidence and health. If that persists, he could find himself in the middle of plenty of DHO looks and “get” actions to make use of the size and positioning. However, there are still plenty of things to clean up before he can become a reliable DHO hub, and that will require lots of reps, something the Warriors are not able to consistently give him.
Ultimately, Wiseman’s offensive improvement has flown under the radar so far this year, as the Warriors have made good use of his size and rolling ability. But that’s not the end of the floor that is cause for concern.
Defense Remains Strict
How the Warriors view Wiseman as a defender hasn’t changed much. Everything they do is done to keep Wiseman away from the perimeter where he’s an easy target. You can see how deliberately Wiseman runs back in the paint to avoid getting cross-matched and stuck outside on almost every transition possession. Though he has been good at keeping himself out of trouble in transition, it’s the half-court struggles that have become a major concern.
Being stuck in a deep drop is feasible with solid point-of-attack defense and help from the forwards, and it’s certainly not James’ fault that those two areas have been lacking. In fact, both Wiseman and JaMychal Green are in the bottom six in terms of two-point percentage allowed among bigs.
Ideally, your drop big is allowing floaters instead of layups. Defenses will take that shot every time instead of a pull-up three. Yet Wiseman has allowed over 1.3 PPP on floaters this year, in part because the depth of the drop makes those shots too easy. When those shots go up, Wise usually has two feet planted in the restricted area and doesn’t have the short-coil explosion to contest a shot 5-6 feet from the rim. If he could play a tad higher to push those shots to 8-9 feet, while keeping track of the rim behind him, that would go a long way toward improving his defensive efficacy.
But even when planted at the rim, he hasn’t been a strong enough deterrent. He has a hard time choosing when to go vertical and when to really contest, and opponents are simply not intimidated by him. The issue was most apparent against Detroit this past Sunday when 6’8″ Isaiah Stewart took the 7’2″ Wiseman to work in the post in an incredibly disrespectful way:
If he can’t switch out to the perimeter, and he can’t really affect shots without fouling (6.2 fouls per 75), the other bench Warriors are going to be picking up the slack all season. It’ll be a major point for other teams to attack come playoff time, which would almost entirely take him off the floor. Unless measurable strides are made, the defensive concerns alone will write him out of the playoff rotation. Not an ideal scenario for a 2nd overall pick in his third year.
Keep An Eye Out For…
The main thing I’ll be focusing on is the defensive end. How deep is his drop? Can he deter more rim attempts and push those floaters back another foot or two? Can he rotate without fouling? There are really too many questions to be asked at the moment. I’d consider it progress if we see more clarity in either direction: if he can improve on those responsibilities, great; if not, what do we do now?
Unless he goes back to taking jumpers, the offense should be relatively consistent going forwards. After a strong start catching the ball, there have been a few fumbles over the past week. Let’s see how Wiseman does on the catch over the next month, which is where 99% of his offense should be derived from.
Jonathan Kuminga, Forward
2022/23 Stats: 6 games (0 starts), 8.6/6/1.5/0.5/0.5 per 75 poss, 46/0/100 splits, .267 3PR, .400 FTR, 9.4 reb%, 0.42 ATO, -12.0 BPM
If the Warriors’ core youths were the Roys from HBO’s Succession, Kuminga is the Cousin Greg of the group at the moment. He’s on the outside looking in, trying to get an opportunity while working on his game. But instead of Comfry he’s after, it’s playing time.
Despite the exit of Otto Porter Jr., Kuminga’s minutes have dropped from last season. He started off as the backup 3 before a lack of spacing and defensive issues forced him to the end of the rotation, while Moses Moody has gradually taken those minutes. A lack of half-court efficiency has really handicapped his playing time, as the offense hasn’t outweighed the inconsistent defense. However, he is still a dynamo in transition.
The half-court struggles are tough to ignore. JoKu has yet to find any sort of consistency as a spacer, roller, or cutter. Without a reliable trick in his bag, defenses can largely ignore him when he’s not playing in the dunker spot, which is usually occupied by Wiseman. It’s fair to wonder if some of those problems could be alleviated by him playing the 4 or 5 more consistently, but he needs to show more capability as a screener and roller first.
However, I have been encouraged by his improvements in playmaking and court awareness. He’s made some nice reads on the fly instead of from rigid structure, a good sign that the sophomore is starting to develop a feel for the game and chemistry with his teammates.
How Does the Defense Look?
Much like his young compatriots, Kuminga has struggled with off-ball communication and attentiveness, another key reason for his dip in playing time. But when engaged (especially on the ball), he can really produce results.
He’s got a package of length, athleticism, and reaction speed that makes him tough to shake. We all know how twitchy Kelly Oubre Jr. is, and Kuminga stays with him pace-for-pace on the above possession.
The overall improvement in body control has been my favorite development thus far. He’s not playing like a train going off the tracks as much, staying within himself while flying around at full speed:
It has also been a boon on the offensive end of the floor. Shots like the one you see below were lucky to catch rim last year, let alone tickle the twine:
Kuminga still has plenty of work to do on both ends of the floor in the macro, but there has been positive development from a microskills standpoint. It would be nice to see him improving in leaps and bounds like he did last year, but it’s unfair overall to say his play has regressed this year. The pressure on him defensively has been ramped up, and he hasn’t quite hit the mark.
Keep An Eye Out For…
Trust from the coaching staff. Not much more to it.
If he’s not playing consistently, there isn’t much to see. But when he’s out there, watch how he operates offensively in the half court. If he can be an active cutter and used more often as a roller, that would go a long way towards boosting those minutes. On the defensive end, track how he works off the ball. Does he keep his eyes and feet moving? Can he make impact rotations?
If some of these questions can be answered, he might find himself with a more consistent role before the month is out.
Moses Moody, Wing
2022/23 Stats: 8 games (0 starts), 13.5/4.5/1/1/1.2 per 75 poss, 46/37/75 splits, .698 3PR, .186 FTR, 4.7 stock%, 0.36 ATO, -4.6 BPM
Of all young Warriors not named Jordan Poole, Moses Moody is unquestionably the most ready-made NBA player of the bunch. And Steve Kerr is starting to take note.
As previously mentioned, Jonathan Kuminga’s role as the backup 3 has slowly been ceded to Moses. His consistency as a defender and floor spacer brings immense value to a second unit struggling for both. Most importantly, he stays ready. You know when he steps on the floor he will be engaged, communicative, and giving maximum effort.
To understand how he brings value on the defensive end of the floor, watch this thread on his game against the Phoenix Suns:
On the ball, he is dynamic. When tasked with paint responsibilities as a sinker or filler, he can make life tough inside for bigs trying to mismatch or shooters trying to relocate for open shots. That kind of versatility on the floor plugs a lot of holes and is a large reason why his playing time is on the rise. He’s prone to mistakes like any other rookie-scale wing, but they are fewer and further between than you would expect for a 20-year-old.
And, as always, the footwork shines on both ends. No surprise at all for a Montverde product.
Finding an Offensive Niche
On the offensive end of the floor, everything trickles down from the perimeter shot. And unlike Reaganomics, it actually works. His .66 3PR places him pretty squarely in the shoot-first wing category, but he’s starting to expand his diet of perimeter shots. He’s taking deeper attempts off the catch, further stretching his range and forcing tougher closeouts.
Footwork and balance skills are also coming into play as a movement shooter. This really opens up the amount of motion off-ball actions he can be involved in. You can picture him flying off pindowns and using that high release point to get all kinds of looks off, regardless of how contested.
It’s still early to be thinking about the end of the season, but the line of demarcation on the roster has been pretty clear: when an 8-man playoff rotation forms, it’ll be the starters plus Poole, DiVincenzo, and JaMychal Green. If I had to bet on a player outside that 8 to make it a 9 (or just outright take a spot), it would be Moses. He’s ready for whatever Golden State throws his way.
Keep An Eye Out For…
Moody’s playing time when Donte DiVincenzo returns to the lineup will be interesting to monitor. Does he start eating into some of those minutes as the second guard off the bench, or remain an outright 3 when the bench unit plays? Could he potentially become first in line for starts when Klay has to be rested in order to keep Poole’s offense with the bench?
In terms of on-court things to watch, how Moody attacks closeouts could be a short-term area of improvement. He’s strong and has a solid handle on his drives, but has yet to find a true rhythm as a finisher. He does have some finishing tricks in his bad, but it has to be something beyond wrong-footed/handed finishes to deter shot contests. Going up with the body and finishing strong is something he is very capable of. If he starts to mix in some quality kickouts and pocket passes against a tilted defense, he could do more than just keep the wheels greased on the offensive end.
Patrick Baldwin Jr., Forward
2022/23 Stats: 1 game (0 starts), 1 total minute played
Well, there’s only so much you can say about a guy who has only played one minute.
The positive showings in the preseason have not carried over into regular-season minutes, but that’s not really a surprise to anyone. This team has a lot of mouths to feed, and someone had to get the squeeze. Without knowing how PBJ is looking in practice, it’s impossible to speculate what he can do to get himself on the floor beyond waiting patiently for a chance.
The good thing is he’s not unavailable because of his health. After a rocky college season hampered by lower-body injuries, Baldwin Jr. looked fluid on both ends of the floor during the preseason. He looked ready-made as an off-ball relocator and had no qualms with pulling the trigger. At nearly 6’10”, almost every look is clean for him.
But that’s really all we have right now: preseason flashes. Until he gets a larger body of work under his belt, his potential role is theoretical in nature.
Keep An Eye Out For…
Minutes. Anything really.
If PBJ checks into a non-blowout without any significant injuries factoring in, it’s a strong indication that Pat is putting in the work behind the scenes. What’s more likely is he continues to mix in during out-of-reach games or on nights where the forward depth has been depleted.
If/when he does get some run, I’ll mostly be monitoring how he moves. If he looks healthy, confidence will follow. A confident shooter at that size could do a lot for this team. And if he can find a way to not get played off the floor defensively, who knows? Golden State clearly went into this year viewing anything they get from Baldwin Jr. as a bonus, and that stays the case for now.
Ryan Rollins, Guard
2022/23 Stats: 3 games (0 starts), 4 total minutes played
At last, we come to the other forgotten rookie in the rotation. The only true backup point guard on the roster, Rollins finds himself buried behind a cadre of strong guard options who can play the 1 in a pinch. Thus you have the 4 minutes played after 7 games.
Much like his rookie counterpart, PBJ, Rollins was overcoming foot/ankle troubles coming into camp and missed Summer League as a result. But when he got himself on the floor in preseason, there was a lot to like:
He’s shown flashes of on-ball dynamism, capable of a wide array of shots from the perimeter when he gets it going. Rollins took a few spot-up looks off the ball as well, as the Warriors are likely trying to get him to flex on/off ball to better fit the offense.
It remains to be seen if any of this can translate in the short term. He’ll be waiting in the wings to see what opportunities arise, but the Warriors certainly did not construct this roster expecting to lean on him in any way.
Keep An Eye Out For…
Minutes. Same as Patrick Baldwin Jr.
Steph Curry will miss games. That much is a given. It’s likely at some point over the next month he will be rested, and that should open up a chance for Rollins to run the bench for a dozen or so minutes on those nights.
If he does, I’ll be watching how much time he spends on the ball vs. off it. He can create for himself and others when he has the rock, but without it will define what kind of role he can carve out. The defensive activity is worth checking in on as well. Whether or not he can make an impact at the point-of-attack could open up more potential minutes behind Poole and Donte.
But ultimately, anything we see from him is a bonus. If Rollins is suddenly thrust into major playing time, it likely spells bad news for the Dubs in more ways than one.
Looking Forward
The Dubs have 15 games on deck for November, including three back-to-backs. This could be a prime month for the young guys to get a little looser as they see more minutes, with veteran rest all but guaranteed for some of those games.
I’ll be keeping frequent tabs on all of these guys to monitor their progress before we check back in at the beginning of December. Until then, enjoy what you see out there. These are exciting and unprecedented times for Golden State.
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