WHERE HE AT?? WHERE HE AT?? WHERE HE AT??
NOW THERE HE GO, THERE HE GO, THERE HE GO!!!
(sorry, I really couldn’t help it.)
Terrible jokes aside, it really is time for Golden State to give Patrick Baldwin Jr. his fair shake, for three important reasons.
First: The State of the Cap
It’s no secret that Golden State is starved for secondary and tertiary rotation pieces. Their starters are as good as any in basketball, countered with a bench struggling for production and consistency. Coach Steve Kerr has been looking up and down for winning bench combinations, and many have given up on the current personnel being able to cobble together a competent second unit.
This has led to an overreliance on Anthony Lamb, one of Golden State’s two-way finds. His hot shooting stretch and defensive energy have given coach Steve Kerr no choice but to give him a seemingly unlimited leash, despite the constant defensive miscues that would get most players in his system benched or demoted. But Kerr been somewhat boxed into this situation by the construction of the roster and health concerns throughout the year.
There are also some short and long-term ramifications to playing Lamb this frequently from a money perspective, something Golden State is not eager to spend more of, considering the astronomical $372M bill for this current squad. He’s clocked 40 of his 50 two-way games with 33 games remaining, meaning a standard contract conversion has to come soon if they want to remain reliant on him.
In the long term, Lamb will be expiring at the end of the year. At 25 years old with some good-looking splits, a team looking for wing depth this offseason will buy the fool’s gold, offering him an expanded role or more money (likely both) than Golden State can give. Meanwhile, Patrick Baldwin Jr. has three remaining years on his rookies-scale deal after the season, coming in at $2.34M, $2.45M, and $4.42M. With a tough offseason upcoming, the potential to find cheap rotation pieces is at an all-time low, especially if minimum vets aren’t looking at Golden State as a top-tier ring-chasing destination.
I’m not defending the way the roster was built, or the corner the front office has painted itself into. But these are the harsh realities of the most expensive roster in North American sports outside of the New York “F*** Your Tax Rules” Mets. They are financially incentivized to turn PBJ into a contributor in the short term as much as the long term.
Second: The Offensive Utility is There
In general, 15 threes attempted per 100 possessions is the benchmark for elite deep shooter volume. Three Warriors currently sit at that mark for the season: Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, and guess who? In fact, Baldwin Jr.’s 18.1 threes attempted per 100 is tops on the team. Sample size plays a role here, as Baldwin Jr. has only 127 minutes with the big club. But with the G League, PBJ is getting up 10.3 threes per 100 in 9 showcase games, and 12.2 in his two regular season games. There’s certainly a baseline of being willing to shoot, which can be half the battle with young snipers.
He’s also canning 37% of his combined threes between the G and the NBA, which is even more impressive given the difficulty of his diet in the G and the lack of consistency in terms of “which Dubs team am I playing for this week?”. Consider his high-school pedigree as a deadly shooter, the willingness to let it fly, a near-impossible release to contest, and the instant results in the NBA (44.9% to date). That is the profile of a ready-made floor spacing 4.
Beyond the numbers, he has shown advanced relocation skills for his age. He knows how to find angles and make himself available for Golden State’s numerous passers. PBJ is more than willing to chop his feet and move, confident in his ability to quickly set his base and let it fly. That is an important skill in this motion offense, and he’s shown potential to be a plus movement shooter coming off screens or handoffs.
It’s true that Anthony Lamb (who only keeps getting mentioned here as the guy taking his potential minutes) has shot well from deep throughout the year, hitting 40% of his 3.5 attempts per game. But there is a documented history of Lamb being streaky across multiple seasons. Here are his percentages from his seasons at Vermont and in the League: 41, 32, 37, 29, 32, 40. History tells us he’s just as likely to be well below average as above 40%. He’s also shooting better on above-the-break threes this year than in the corner, another sign of potentially false results. Who knows when the luck will finally run out?
On top of potentially great shooting, Baldwin Jr. has shown a willingness to get inside the arc on cuts and closeout attacks, which will form the majority of his non-shooting offense. His length again plays an important role here, giving him a finishing ability that Lamb cannot match:
Third: Defense is Better Than You Expect
Anyone who reads my stuff, follows my account, or watches enough Warriors games should know that Lamb is a serial overhelper and off-ball fouler. Besides recent incidents of Draymond Green calling out Lamb for helping off the strong side and Steph Curry getting frustrated with Lamb for fouling Kristaps Porzingis multiple times off the ball (which Lamb did not seem to be receptive to), he constantly gets them in trouble by drifting off the ball and jumping to provide help where none is necessary:
It’s also important to remember Lamb has played in 66 NBA games to date. Not exactly full of experience, and it’s understandable that he makes mistakes.
But Patrick Baldwin Jr. is arguably less mistake-prone despite being five years his junior, and though Lamb can hold up at the point of attack against big (preferably slow) wings, there are things PBJ can do that Lamb simply cannot.
Look at this possession below. Steers his mismatch into the help, recovers to the weak side of the rim and spikes Onyeka Okongwu’s layup back down to earth. The extra 4-5 inches he has on Lamb give some potential rotational rim protection juice, something Golden State is in desperate need of considering the state of their frontcourt reserves.
Though he’s not going to be a stopper anytime soon, he’s more than capable of cleaning up defensive possessions on the glass, another major area of struggle for Golden State this year. Opponents have seen a 11.6% jump in offensive rebounds from last year to the current, per basketball-reference.com. There is an immediate need to get out of the red on the glass.
For the season, Lamb ranks eighth on the Dubs in terms of total defensive rebounding percentage at 13.8%, behind both Steph Curry and Donte DiVincenzo. Meanwhile, PBJ’s 17.9% mark sits only behind Kevon Looney, James Wiseman, Draymond Green, and JaMychal Green (read: their entire frontcourt). With sample size considered, his percentage clears 15% in the G League as well in his 290 minutes. Statistical evidence and tape show he may already be the superior rebounder, which is important considering their lack of size on the inside.
While his defensive game isn’t a 1:1 comparison to Lamb’s, he can provide different elements that Golden State is in need of. If he could provide the occasional impact rotation and generate an uptick on the glass while playing within himself (AKA not wildly overhelping), he could be a solid cog in their unit as a true 4.
In Short: Play The Man Before You Pay The Man
If Golden State is as inactive at the trade deadline as the experts expect them to be, they will need to find some new dimensions from inside this current roster. Ryan Rollins, Moses Moody, and James Wiseman have proven themselves unprepared for rotation minutes. It would seem to behoove Golden State to see what they have right now in Patrick Baldwin Jr.
Anthony Lamb’s minutes aren’t making or breaking (well, maybe the latter) this rotation right now. They have already put themselves in a difficult spot in the standings, but still seem likely to make the playoffs regardless, albeit facing an uphill battle in terms of seeding. The time is now to try new things and see if you can add a new facet to the team down the stretch. If they catch lightning in a bottle by turning a 28th-overall-selection rookie into a usable role player, it improves both their short and long-term outlook in a time where both need a serious boost. What do they have to lose by trying?
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