With the trade dust finally settled, things are looking up in Golden State.
The rocky, possibly suspicious, return of Gary Payton II (which I covered here) all but solidifies their potential playoff rotation. One of the best starting units in the league is now augmented by Jordan Poole, GP2, Donte DiVincenzo, Jonathan Kuminga. You could argue it’s an upgrade over last year’s rotation that brought home a fourth championship for the Steph Curry/Klay Thompson/Draymond Green core.
But the Warriors still sit at 28-27, sitting at the 9th seed and one game away from being out of the play-in or completely out of the playoffs. Every move on the margins is crucial. They have their iron man center in Kevon Looney, but some additional depth in the big man room would be very welcome. Let’s explore some potential options as the buyout market unfolds in the coming days.
Already Bought Out
These are the players who have been moved at the deadline and subsequently waived by acquiring teams, so they could be on the roster tomorrow if Warriors GM Bob Myers so chooses.
Dewayne Dedmon
The summary of my pitch for Dedmon comes down to this:
Besides Theragun-Gate, Dedmon has been a largely serviceable big for Miami over the past few years. Quality rebounding ability and providing enough shot deterrence to get by will get you something defensively. His 47.7 dFG% places him just above the bell curve amongst centers in the league this season. As a staunch drop big, he’s very attackable in the pick-and-roll, with nearly 70% of the offense generated against coming from PNR ballhandlers per Synergy Stats. His 1.04 PPP mark places him in the 17th percentile of the league, so…not great. But if you’re looking for an innings eater, it could be worse.
The current state of the roster could help mask his deficiencies. If 3/4ths of the bench wings trying to navigate screens above your drop are GP2, Donte, and Kuminga, it won’t look as bad on the defensive end of the floor. And if he’s cleaning up a high rate of rebounds to finish off defensive possessions, he could work himself toward being an average contributor on that end.
On the offensive side of the floor, being an above-the-break floor spacer brings a ton of value to this roster. Taking those higher-difficulty threes and making them at an above-average clip is not only good offense, but draws potential help defenders on drives away from the corner. Screening and popping back to the arc gives their rim pressure threats a cleaner lane and an easy outlet to boot. His playmaking isn’t a plus, but he’s done a fine job keeping the ball moving at times.
He’s been a serviceable roll and cut big, generating nearly 50% of his possessions in those scenarios, so he can fit into the system in the halfcourt. His 33-year-old legs don’t offer much in transition, but these are buyout guys we are talking. Nobody is perfect.
As a bonus, Dedmon would be coming back to the team he began his career with as an undrafted free agent from USC, making a brief four-game cameo with Golden State in 2013 while playing largely with the Sea Dubs. He’s an outer Los Angeles native, so it could be an extra incentive to come to the Bay.
Verdict: Sign him
Serge Ibaka
Despite being a shade younger than Dedmon, Ibaka is in a whole different tier of “over the hill”
Once upon a time, Ibaka was one of the more athletic players in the league, capable of ridiculous dunks and blocks on a nightly basis. But at 33 years old, that athleticism is all but gone.
In his first 5 years in the league, 15% of his field goals came via the dunk. That number has dropped to 8.8% over the past five seasons. Granted, shooting more is a factor here, but the man who once did this is no more:
(sorry for using a Westbrook stan account for content)
This year also brings the lowest defensive rebounding percentage and combined steal + block rate of his career. The impact defender that once was is also no longer there. In fact, he’s become a very clear negative, which is just unfortunate to see.
You’re probably thinking “hey, Dedmon is a negative defender and you’re in favor, what gives?”. The main point is the defensive rebounding rate. Ibaka’s 12.1% share rates him in the 14th percentile amongst bigs per Cleaning the Glass. That’s not going to cut it for a team that needs extra juice on the defensive glass. If he can’t clean up possessions or get stops, he can be a major liability even in a system capable of masking big-man defensive flaws.
His one saving grace is the floor spacing. The 38.7% mark on above-the-break threes over the past two seasons brings a similar utility to Dedmon and provides the same benefits for other players in terms of taking help away from drive threats. Unfortunately, that’s about where the utility ends.
He’s been one of the worst cutting bigs in the league over the past two years, and not for a lack of trying. There is still a bit of roll-man juice there, but the Warriors are second to last in the league in terms of roll-man possessions in the league per nba.com. One or two possessions a game aren’t going to make much of a difference, and if he’s not fitting into what they ask of other bigs, I don’t see him being much of a halfcourt scoring contributor outside of the occasional pick-and-pop or catch-and-shoot three.
He’s also pretty rough as a playmaker. His assist percentage has come in under 5% in the past two seasons, amongst the bottom 10% of bigs. Coupled with an assist/usage ratio under 0.4, he’s neither a willing playmaker nor a good one. Expecting him to run DHOs and pass out of the post would be a mistake, another knock on his overall system fit. A negative ATO across those two years would only exacerbate the turnover woes that have plagued the Warriors all year.
In short, Ibaka would likely hurt more than he helps on both ends of the floor. If they’re looking for a guy to be competent enough to eat minutes, this is not the place to look.
Verdict: Don’t sign
Unlikely Buyouts
Dario Šarić
On the other side of the potential playmaking coin is Dario Šarić. He’s posted the highest assist percentage and assist/usage ratio of his career during his time in Phoenix this season, ranking in the 87th and 79th percentile respectively amongst bigs. It’s coupled with a below-average turnover ratio, but his 1.35 ATO over his three-year stint in Phoenix is certainly a plus addition.
Much like the previous two players, his main scoring utility comes on above-the-break threes. Roughly 30% of his total FGA with Phoenix came from that range, making 36% of those looks. He’s never been a high-level rim finisher or attacker, a stretch big to the truest definition. Once again, he’s there to create a spaced floor for the drivers on the bench, and can do so adequately.
His performances at Eurobasket over the summer showed a player capable of contributing in a variety of ways in addition to post passing and shooting. Taking players off the drive, attacking closeouts, running solid PNRs. There could be more there than we’ve previously seen in the league.
Šarić’s numbers this year in terms of overall offensive contribution have been middling, but his July 2021 ACL tear has certainly played a role. Prior to that, he was a very solid transition player (albeit with 5th percentile frequency) who contributes with cuts and spot-up looks with the occasional roll man look. Bringing that diverse skillset to the motion offense would be a welcome addition.
Though he’s never been a great rim protector, never clearing the 13th percentile in block rate over his six-year career, Šarić has shown a decent ability to pilfer the ball in recent years. His smarts, length, and quick hands give him some ability to make big defensive plays.
He’s not quite the rebounder that the previous two can be, but has been 49th percentile or higher on defensive rebounding percentage over the past three seasons, so he can hold his own there. The lack of overall defensive impact will again be masked by the defensive quality of their rotation, and the overall offensive utility and ball-moving skill make up for it in the aggregate.
Of all reasonable buyout options, this might just be my favorite.
Verdict: Sign, Sign, Sign
Kevin Love
Unfortunately, it seems a Love buyout is unlikely, and that comes straight from the horse’s mouth:
But I’d be remiss if I didn’t explore the option in depth regardless, as he would be the biggest home run of any potential signings. I already broke down that possibility earlier in the week, and you can read it here:
Suffice it to say, Love would be amazing, but don’t get your hopes up.
Verdict: Cross your fingers
Nerlens Noel
The unlikeliness of this buyout is almost entirely due to money. Between the three non-pipe dream buyouts previously mentioned (Šarić, Dedmon, Ibaka) is $16.8M in total salary for this season with no money on the books for next season. Noel’s club option for next season brings the total of his two-year deal to $18.8M. Detroit has a glut of young centers they want to figure out, so Noel seems like he’s been squeezed from the rotation. But he probably doesn’t want to fork over money to hit free agency with that club option likely to be declined.
It also seems like odd business to
That being said, Noel represents perhaps the best buyout option with a chance to hit the market.
The defensive impact would be the main reason. Though a middling defensive rebounder (no higher than 44th percentile over his previous four seasons), his ability to create chaos plays from the paint would help create more stops and transition possessions for the offense. He has been no lower than 93rd percentile in steal percentage for his career, with great anticipatory timing to dig ballhandlers, front the post at the last second, or flash his hands in the passing lanes to create deflections.
He has also posted a block rate no lower than the 87th percentile over the past five seasons, consistently affecting shots in drop coverage. Last year, when Noel last got consistent minutes, he posted a borderline elite dFG% of 52.3%. Amongst centers to meet his 22.5 MPG threshold, here are the players who bested that dFG% in order: Isaiah Stewart, Jarrett Allen, Robert Williams III, Jaren Jackson Jr., Rudy Gobert, and Brook Lopez. Nic Claxton is another notable name who just missed the minutes-per-game mark.
Besides the random appearance by Stew, that is a who’s who of the elite defensive bigs in the league. Noel even being close to their company is very impressive. That would be a great addition to a defensive unit that is only trending up.
His offensive utility is below the level of the previously mentioned players (though Ibaka is similarly inflexible). He’s not going to space the floor, as his 15 career 3PA would confirm. Largely known for having stone hands offensively, Noel still puts himself in good spots while in a low-usage role. 75% of his total offense last year came from cuts, putbacks, and roll-man looks. Even if the finishing rates aren’t high, a player who knows what he is and doesn’t need post-up touches to create would fit into their current usage patterns.
Though a bit different from these others in terms of defensive utility/scheme versatility and overall offensive pliability, I think Noel should be considered the best mix of attainable and useful in a low-minute role.
Verdict: Get this man on the team ASAP!!!
Thaddeus Young
In a surprising turn of events, the Toronto Raptors turned from hard sellers to soft buyers at the deadline, bringing Jakob Poeltl back into the fold after parting ways in the Kawhi Leonard trade. This move pushes Precious Achiuwa to the bench, leaving promising rookie Christian Koloko and former Sea Dub Chris Boucher to fight for leftover minutes in the big man room. This seemingly leaves Thaddeus Young, acquired for a first-round pick at last year’s deadline, on the outs.
And though the Raptors seem to have confidence in their ability to rise in an Eastern Conference weakened by the Brooklyn fire sale, it’s possible that Young does not agree, and the 34-year-old may work out an agreement to find a more realistic contender.
The first thing that sticks out is his utility as a passer in this offense. A lot of the minutes he could potentially see in Golden State would come in the five spot, where his extra dose of playmaking would be welcome. Over his past three seasons, Young has turned in assist percentages no lower than the 79th percentile amongst bigs, and his assist/usage stats are even better. The highlights are nothing to sneeze at either:
His craftiness in a handoff role, passing both from the perimeter and out of the post would fit seamlessly into a system full of cutters and movement shooters. The synergy there would be incredible.
Thad has never been a scorer by trade, but the utility on that end has really diminished. His reduced athleticism has led to a steep decline in transition production. In the halfcourt, it’s not much prettier. He’s a poor roll and cut big, ranking in the 10th percentile or lower in both categories over the past two seasons. The good news is that Golden State has more than enough scoring to make up for it, and the offensive rebounding/passing combination is enough for him to get by.
On the defensive end, the main selling point is the steals. Thad’s steal rate hasn’t dropped below the 93rd percentile since the 2011/12 season, two whole presidents ago. Before being squeezed from the rotation, he was putting up some very impressive numbers:
Though not the perimeter defender he once was, Thad is still very good playing at the level on screens, with enough quickness and timing to make recoveries after stunting ballhandlers as you see here:
Young isn’t quite an impact rebounder, limiting his ability to contribute if getting minutes at the center spot. When playing at the center spot over the past two seasons, he’s been a 13th percentile defensive rebounder. That’s a tough obstacle to overcome for a bench lacking in size.
On the whole, the ability to create event plays and hold up on the perimeter could keep him above water defensively in this scheme. Combined with the passing chops and some floor spacing on the offensive side of the floor, he represents a solid enough depth addition.
Verdict: Sign if no other options present themselves
Free Agents
Hassan Whiteside
Unfortunately, being “ready are not” is the main question when it comes to Whiteside.
I’d argue that Hassan gets far too much hate from casual NBA fans. He can be a tad unserious at times, but is endearingly goofy. Seriously, how can you hate this man?
But readiness is the real concern here. After a cameo in Utah last season backing up Rudy Gobert, Whiteside has been in street clothes the entire season. And considering two thirds of the season have come and gone, can he #rampup his conditioning fast enough while learning a new system to make a regular season contribution?
Let’s just assume he comes ready to play on day one, fit enough for a sparing backup role. He’s as true a drop big as they come, much like Dewayne Dedmon. Granted, Dedmon hasn’t led the league in blocked shots and rebounds like Hassan has, but that lack of defensive system fit only makes the hurdles toward success higher.
But the value of a player who could inhale boards and spike shots into the upper level from the gun cannot be overstated. Even if a bit stiff and past his physical prime, Hassan would do a lot in the way of cleaning up what the other bench players cannot. And, *beats dead horse*, the personnel could hopefully mask his lack of switchability and hesitancy to play at the level of the screen. A rejection per game and a handful of boards could go a long way in limited minutes.
Luckily, his rebounding prowess isn’t just limited to one end of the floor. He was a 95th percentile offensive rebounder last season in Utah and could help Golden State tip the second chance scales in their favor. He’s no playmaker by any stretch of the imagination, which brings serious limitations to his pliability in the system. But in addition to being excellent on the glass, he can be a strong roll and cut big, one who boasted a 78% finishing mark around the rim last season.
The offensive utility may be limited, but an extra lob threat who finished in the 92nd percentile in half-court scoring efficiency could find himself contributing on that end as well.
All this assumes he is physically fit enough to contribute, or even wants to play. But if the Warriors find themselves getting the cold shoulder from the buyout market, they could do worse with that 15th roster spot, since it’s currently going to waste.
Verdict: Break glass in case of emergency
Despite the strange news regarding the Gary Payton II trade, a depth big remains the biggest priority. None of these names are the sexiest additions, and buyout players don’t win you championships as the Warriors hope to accomplish yet again. Yet the importance of depth and maximizing the margins of the roster cannot be overstated, and there are options out there. The question is: will Golden State seize the chance to improve?
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