I don’t want to take anything away from the Kings, who are incredibly talented and play a beautiful brand of winning basketball.
But the first two games felt like the Warriors stood in the same spot and dug a 15-foot hole straight down and became shocked when they couldn’t climb out.
Despite out-shooting the Kings for two games on the road, a seemingly impossible feat considering Golden State’s road shooting splits, they couldn’t stop tripping over themselves. The advantage from deep (30% on 70 attempts for SAC vs. 32% on 90 attempts for GSW) has been negligible, but the advantage inside the arc has been a major surprise. GSW is making 65% of their twos, compared to 54% from Sacramento.
What’s really killing them is the volume of high-value shots they are allowing to Sacramento. Not only are they taking 50% more shots inside the arc than Golden State by total volume, but they are also getting high-value short midrange shots that GSW has traditionally allowed. De’Aaron Fox especially is able to take advantage of that:
The shooting percentage on twos and from deep has also been completely negated by the Kings pummeling the undersized and under-hustling Warriors on the offensive glass. A 17-9 margin in Game 1 and 12-9 in Game 2 only furthers Golden State’s deficit in shot totals. It’s no coincidence the Kings got 8 more shot attempts in a three-point Game 1 victory, and 10 more in Game 2. But the losses on the glass are only half the equation.
Unsurprisingly, Golden State has also lost the turnover battle in both games. That feeds right into the Kings’ high-powered transition game, and it’s absolutely murdering them.
Oh, did I mention the Kings also won the free-throw battle in both games because of their superior rim pressure and point-of-attack defense? And that Golden State’s defensive fulcrum will be missing for Game 3 after stomping out Domantas Sabonis like a Mortal Kombat finishing move?
So, Are We Cooked?
Maybe. It’s possible that Golden State is gearing up to charge out of the gates into death and glory like Theoden and Aragorn at Helm’s Deep. And though they don’t have reinforcements coming at dawn of the fifth day, they have one thing neither Sacramento nor Saruman possesses: Wardell Stephen Curry II.
Through the course of his playoff career, Curry has played in 12 do-or-die games while down 2-1 or 3-2 in the series. He averages 27.9 points, 5.8 rebounds, and 6.9 assists per game while the team has posted an astounding 8-4 record with their backs against the wall. He’s at his most dangerous when threatened, and I fully expect him to go nuclear tonight to try to avoid the first 3-0 series deficit of his career. Never having been down 2-0 is an incredible feat by itself, and Steph will do all he can to hold the tide. The increased PNR frequency will be on full display tonight: expect a good 50 ball screens for Curry tonight.
But against the best offense in the league, he won’t be enough by himself.
Supporting Cast is Called To Action
Without Draymond Green, lots of other players will need to step up. Even if Jonathan Kuminga joins the starting lineup, the Warriors will need a Herculean effort from future Chase Center statue-haver Kevon Looney. The league leader in offensive rebounds needs to put on a one-man glass-cleaning show to negate Sacramento’s advantage on the glass.
They’re also going to rely heavily on the off-ball rotations from Andrew Wiggins and Klay Thompson. So much of their first-ranked opponent rim percentage mark is predicated on getting the right rotations from Draymond Green, and without him, someone will need to step in to help Kevon Looney when dealing with Sabonis in the post, trying to contain De’Aaron Fox drives, or tracking and erasing their cutting wings.
Extra reliance on Jonathan Kuminga is perhaps a necessity tonight. Jordan Poole is not playing up to his pedigree, and Golden State is in dire need of a positive contributor on defense who can switch and stay engaged off the ball. Kuminga is also capable of filling Poole’s rim pressuring via cuts, rolls, slips, and drives without all the silly extra stuff that comes with Poole’s recent offensive performance.
The point-of-attack defense also needs to step up, especially if Poole is seeing diminished minutes. With less defensive mistakes to cover up, they’ll have to buckle down on Fox, Malik Monk, and Kevin Huerter to stop the endless purple tide of rim pressure, midrange mastery, and perimeter shooting.
How Can They Pull It Off?
We’ve seen the how. In the first quarter of Monday’s game, they showed crisp offense and a hustling defense that forced Sacramento into far more threes and turnovers than they would have liked while controlling the glass to boot. Then the effort faded, the defense collapsed, and so did the lead.
Effort is first and foremost. Fight for every inch on the glass. Guard the ball with necessary caution. Fly off every screen, cut and roll hard, and rotate with a purpose. They’re capable of out-talenting the Kings on a bad night, but they need to win games by outworking them. Another stale effort will find them at a point of no return.
They need to stay committed to blowing up Sacramento’s handoff actions, forcing Sabonis into double teams, and keeping De’Aaron Fox out of the middle at all costs. And offensively even a few minutes of stagnated movement and lack of cohesion can put them under against the best offense in the league. A full 48 minutes of crisp effort will win them this game, even without Draymond Green.
It’s entirely in the hands of the players now. If they don’t bring effort and execution to tonight’s matchup, they should start looking at flights to Cabo.
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