Western Conference Semifinals Preview
Stephen Curry vs LeBron James. A rivalry that defines this generation of the NBA will potentially have its last dance and like the infamous football/soccer coach, Pep Guardiola, once said—”we will be there” (not actually there because the prices for these games are already off the charts but anyways).
This should be an electric series between two teams that have had their share of ups and downs and are coming in hot with a chip on their shoulder. But enough with the talking, let’s dive into what this all will look like on the court.
Matchups
For Los Angeles:
- Austin Reaves on Stephen Curry
- D’Angelo Russell on Klay Thompson
- Jarred Vanderbilt on Andrew Wiggins
- LeBron James on Draymond Green
- Anthony Davis on Kevon Looney
For Golden State:
- Klay Thompson on D’Angelo Russell
- Stephen Curry on Austin Reaves
- Draymond Green on Jarred Vanderbilt
- Andrew Wiggins on LeBron James
- Kevon Looney on Anthony Davis
Starting with LA, the talk around the matchup is the “who guards Steph?” problem, and out of that first group, I trust Austin Reaves to be the guy. Per BBall Index, Reaves graded out as an A- in Off-Ball Chaser Defense and in Ball Screen Navigation, two very key skills you need to have defensively if you want to take on the task that is Stephen Curry.
There has been talk from media and fans about Davis potentially guarding Draymond and LeBron guarding Looney which I can see, but to start the series I think Darvin Ham will go with a vanilla approach and not get too cute just yet. Looney is involved in a lot of Golden State’s actions, just like Draymond, and I think AD could split time between the two while still having the same impact defensively.
For Golden State, I think the key here is Draymond on Vanderbilt. In the regular season matchups, Draymond showed little to no respect to Vanderbilt when he was “guarding” him and at times spent whole possessions heavily shadowing Anthony Davis who was primarily guarded by Looney. With Green roaming to help on Davis, this could cause trouble for LA in terms of Vanderbilt’s usage offensively and the spacing problems that could pursue from that matchup.
Stopping Steph?
In the famous words of the legendary Kevin Harlan, “You can not stop him, you can only hope to contain him!”
Long answer: stopping Steph is a proposition that many teams have tried and have failed in doing so. Do you go all out in stopping him or do you let him cook while you try and shut off Golden State’s other avenues to score? I think the Lakers will lean heavily toward the latter.
The Lakers and Warriors played in three games after the trade deadline with LA’s new cast and they defended Golden State the same way every single time. Putting a heavy emphasis on gapping the Warriors’ poor/non-shooters—Green, Looney, Kuminga, JaMychal Green to some extent, and I would assume Gary Payton II to be in this group although he didn’t play in these matchups—to cut off passing angles and for the Warriors free-flowing, spaced out offense.
And although Kuminga made that three, you’d much rather him taking threes than Steph, Klay, Poole, Wiggins, or Divincenzo getting threes or layups like how they usually do in their offense. This gap defense can disrupt how Golden State normally attacks and it will be on them to counter. The guards guarding the shooters running around will also have to top-lock (when a defender stands between the screener and the person you’re guarding) to deny easy handoffs and if the guards cut, they’ll cut right into Anthony Davis or LeBron James. With off-ball chasers like Reaves, Dennis Schröder, Troy Brown Jr., and even D’Angelo Russell who is really solid in this role when locked in, LA has the personnel to execute this defense fairly well.
But we still haven’t answered the proposed question of stopping or even containing Steph. The best way to contain him while also containing their offense as a whole would be—prepare yourselves—drop coverage.
But no, not that drop coverage with the big man sinking all the way in the paint and daring the ballhandler to hit pull-up jumpers. It’s Steph Curry. I’m recommending a higher variation of drop where the ballhandler’s defender still goes over the screen, but the big man is much higher, usually anywhere from the free throw line out to the 3-point line.
Just like the other scheme against Golden State, the Lakers ran this during all three of those meetups post-deadline and it worked to a tee.
Now of course this isn’t the ultimate cheat code defense that will hold Steph to 20 points per game on bad efficiency. Steph will still get his because of his greatness but you have to play the long game with this defense and focus on the process of “how hard of looks are they getting?” vs the results of whether or not the ball is going in for them.
With the greatness that is Anthony Davis on the defensive side of the ball, nothing seems too farfetched as he is the key to this defensive strategy and is one of the few guys in the league that could actually execute it. We are asking him to be our main rim protector while also being fairly high on Steph where he can contest and maybe even block a couple 3s. It will be a tough task for The Brow but I honestly believe there is nobody in the league I’d rather have for this gameplan.
Answers for AD?
Speaking of AD, the Warriors will have to navigate how they deal with him while they’re on defense as well. In the latest matchup between the two teams, Davis detonated for 39 points, 8 rebounds, 6 assists, and 2 blocks on 64% True Shooting while hitting a mean dagger post shot over the lauded defender, Draymond Green.
Davis presents a harder challenge for the Warriors than what they dealt with in the first round with Domantas Sabonis. Draymond and Looney were able to sag off of Sabonis and give him a great amount of space since Sabonis isn’t really comfortable as a scorer if he’s right near the rim for a layup. That meant post shots, floaters, midranges, and threes were off the table and were a complete non-factor for Sabonis as Draymond and Looney camped under the rim.
You simply can not do that against Anthony Davis.
AD is more of a finesse and quickness big with real touch and is perfectly fine with living in the post hook/floater range if need be. A primary attack I’d like LA to go with in terms of getting AD going would be to get him flowing off of movement so that he can attack the foot speed of Looney, in particular, but even Draymond as well. We saw the Lakers go to this way of attacking for that last matchup where Davis dropped a near 40-piece, running a lot of 5-out delay sets and setting pindown screens for AD for him to attack Looney.
This isn’t the only way though, Davis will kill any 1-on-1 matchups in the post if you don’t send some type of help. AD actually had a very uncharacteristic post-up efficiency series against the Grizzlies where he got his typical looks that he makes most of the time, but just missed them. I would have to expect that those shots are bound to fall eventually and I think this can be the series where that happens.
On top of AD being a hell of a mismatch on the ground, the Warriors can not match his verticality either. The tallest player the Warriors play in their rotation is Kevon Looney who is 6-9 but very floor bound. This is a complete contrast to what Davis had to deal with last round with the 6-11 terror Jaren Jackson Jr. who could match AD’s size and even still he had a very rough time guarding him.
Because of all this, I’m expecting the Warriors to commit a ton of attention and help toward Davis’ way. Although they seem very locked in on not letting him get free Pick-and-Roll lobs and layups, they do not seem as disciplined in their post defense whereas Memphis very much was and it could’ve been one of the factors that kept AD’s efficiency for the series way lower than what we expect from him. Think this could potentially unlock some of AD’s passing too as he will have to make some pretty solid reads in order to counter the help they will send his way. The Warriors will make it tough for AD but this isn’t anything he hasn’t seen before and I think he just completed the test against a tougher Memphis matchup for him offensively.
X-Factors
For Los Angeles
- LeBron James and Anthony Davis
- Lakers guards
Outside of Anthony Davis on the defensive side of the ball, the stars for LA were pretty average in the 1st round matchup against Memphis. I think there is a world where Davis could have the same or even a bigger impact than Curry in this series and the Lakers will need that type of production from their superstar to win this one. With LeBron tending to his lingering foot issue, I’m just unsure of what he will bring to the series on the offensive end. Will he be the on-ball engine like we’ve seen throughout the previous 19 years of his career or again will he be this off-ball cog in the machine? And if he continues to be off-ball which is fine by me, he’ll have to be able to shoot threes at a respectable clip which he did not against Memphis.
LA’s guards again will have a big impact on this series. Austin Reaves is pretty much the only guard in the Lakers rotation that consistently produces and you don’t have to worry about him on the offensive side of the ball really. But D’Angelo Russell, Dennis Schröder, and possibly Malik Beasley and/or Troy Brown Jr. could all play huge swing factor roles on the offensive side of the ball. Not sure how it looks in the stats, but just from a feel perspective, it seems like when D’Angelo Russell has a good game, the Lakers have a 90% chance of winning. I think he will be a little bit more looser than he was in the Memphis series with him not having to deal with as much physicality. The Lakers will be depending on Schröder’s defense so that’s why he is an x-factor but if Beasley or Brown Jr. could just start hitting shots, it could go a long way. Those two combined to shoot 6-for-30 (a whopping 20%) from three in the Memphis series so just them hitting shots could swing the series in LA’s favor.
For Golden State
- Draymond Green
- Klay Thompson/Andrew Wiggins
Draymond Green’s offensive ability will be tested in this series. Just like how the Warriors tested Sabonis’ ability in the first round. He will have to have the mindset of being aggressive on offense and not minding being a scorer which he’s shown he can have at times—Game 5 vs Sacramento—but can he do it efficiently and consistently? That is the real question and should be answered throughout the series.
On top of Klay and Wiggins just having to hit shots, they may be relied upon to create and provide some offense that may be more than usual for them. I think Golden State will look for mismatches on these two when they can and try to get them post looks which will be helpful. But after both had a pretty average first-round series on the offensive side of the ball, their number could be called a lot more vs Los Angeles.
Prediction Time
Lakers in 7.
I believe this will be a long, hard-fought series that will end with the Lakers coming out victorious. Whether it’s six and they win at Crypto.com Arena or seven away on the road, I think the Lakers are coming into this one with the tactical advantage over the Warriors and will try to impose their strength and size against a small-ball Warriors team. LA will be forceful in trying to establish their paint presence just from points in the paint but also on the free throw line where they drew the second most fouls per game in the regular season. Meanwhile, the Warriors committed the third-most personal fouls per game, so the whistle should play a factor and be in LA’s favor just based off of playstyle.
Either way, I simply cannot wait to enjoy this series to the fullest and live through what may be the last chapter of LeBron vs Steph. Two legends that had their hand in reshaping the game into the way it is now and I’ll forever be appreciative towards them for that. But again, enough with all the talking man—let’s hoop!
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