It has been a short, strange journey for Nickeil Alexander-Walker in the NBA.
Taken 17th overall in the 2019 draft, NAW has been the “also, this guy” in three separate trades, once on draft night and twice at the deadline. Struggling with injuries and offensive consistency, he has bounced between middling New Orleans and Utah teams before finding himself in Minnesota as part of the three-team D’Angelo Russell/Mike Conley/Russell Westbrook deal.
That Minnesota team was nothing special, still figuring out a Gobert/KAT/Ant identity while getting bounced in the first round by the eventual champion Denver Nuggets. Now they find themselves atop a bloodbath of a Western Conference to the surprise of many.
Boasting a defense that is tops in the league has kept this team thriving. There are the obvious defensive anchors (Rudy Gobert and Jaden McDaniels) but NAW has provided another elite defensive presence to their rotation. So, how did Nickeil Alexander-Walker go from being passed around like a blunt amongst middling teams to a crucial link in the armor of a contender? Let’s take a look.
Offensive Overview
Though not the finer part of his game, Alexander-Walker has made notable improvements in both results and mindset throughout his time in Minnesota. A lot of this comes from role realignment and shot distribution.
Before this season, 66% of NAW’s two-pointers and 12% of his threes were self-created. That has fallen to 48% and 3% respectively, a sign of a player having a self-creation burden taken away. This has led to a career-best efficiency from inside the arc (53.8%) and a three-point shooting mark well above his career norm (37% to 33.9%).
Looking at his shot chart gives a better idea of what this optimized off-ball role looks like for him:
Threes and layups baby. Daryl Morey would pitch a tent just looking at this.
Minnesota’s set of playmakers is not ideal, but more than enough for NAW to get the looks he needs. They have scorers that command the attention of the defense (Anthony Edwards, Karl-Anthony Towns) and strong connective playmakers (Mike Conley, Kyle Anderson) that help to keep the ball moving once advantages are created.
So how exactly does Nickeil capitalize on those advantages?
Confident Shooting
Despite being roughly league-average from distance, Alexander-Walker has a whole lot of faith in his shot. And that is a good thing when 2/3rds of your shots come there.
To be a good catch-and-shoot player, a lot more goes into it beyond “stand there and fire when ready.” It’s basketball, not trench warfare: you have to keep moving to stay productive. Alexander-Walker has taken a lot of steps (literally and figuratively) to become a more productive shooter by relocating often.
His 1.16 points per possession mark on catch-and-shoot jumpers is more than palatable for a defense-first guy. Being solid from deep also opens up a lot for NAW as a closeout attacker, which has especially benefited his midrange game.
He’s got some craft beyond a straightaway pull-up two. NAW likes getting into spinning turnaround jumpers, and they look quite good when he’s rolling.
Being able to pick and choose his PU2 spots in Minnesota as opposed to forcing them during his other stints has led to remarkable efficiency. Alexander-Walker is cashing in 55% (!!!) of his midrange looks this year, a 98th percentile mark amongst wings. Even if it only represents 1/6th of his shot diet that can be a huge swing factor come playoff time.
And it’s not the only part of his game being buoyed by his shooting.
Tough Drives, Middling Finishing
If a defender sells too hard to deny him the perimeter shot, Alexander-Walker is pretty good at putting the ball on the deck a couple of times and getting a shot at the rim.
Getting a clean angle because of the closeout and pressing that advantage is one thing. Beyond that, there are a lot of issues with his drives and finishing.
Don’t get me wrong: Alexander-Walker is capable of a solid drive and finish. I’ve seen it!
But there is a lot of rough stuff, namely concerning his handle.
Fast and loose is a fine line to walk with your dribble skill. Alexander-Walker tends to fall on the wrong side of that line. It’s a large reason why he has a 19th-percentile turnover rate amongst wings.
There’s a general trend of poor offensive coordination that shows up in his finishing skill as well. Some of it is a mindset thing – Alexander-Walker tries too hard for creative finishes. On the bright side, when he fails spectacularly, it’s rather entertaining.
Walker does make up for some of this rim-finishing concern with his cutting. He’s pretty heady about picking spots and finding space to exploit, and they usually result in much easier finishes.
Yet all of this does not add up to a good rim finisher. He’s sitting at 60% on the season – a 34th percentile mark. This more or less leaves Alexander-Walker as a 2-level scorer. More like 1.5 when you consider he’s just average from three and no longer doing self-creation from there.
Though NAW does have limitations as a scorer, he makes up for it somewhat with his playmaking skill.
Pinch Playmaking
Nickeil’s time spent as a combo guard at the beginning of his career has translated well as he moves to a wing role. As his usage has scaled down, he still finds ways to keep the rock moving constructively. NAW boasts a 77th percentile assist rate in addition to a 1.06 assist/usage ratio, a 95th percentile mark.
He’s not often the guy to begin the creation chain and force the defense into rotation, but can do it when called upon.
Alexander-Walker is especially adept at making the wrap pass to the corner when help comes to defend the pick-and-roll. It’s one of his most common reads in PNR and he executes often.
What he’s mostly good for as a playmaker is pressing the advantages created by others. With the defense in rotation, Alexander-Walker will keep that advantage pressed and make some pretty solid reads.
Similar to his driving and finishing attempts, Alexander-Walker likes to get spicy with his attempts. Sometimes it’s glorious.
But more often he gets himself in trouble by doing too much. The jump passes in particular are problematic.
So, he’s no Tyrese Haliburton. But I’d rather have the guy who tries too hard than not hard enough.
The potential growth areas offensively are pretty simple. Better finishing craft on the drive and reining in the turnovers would take him from a more or less average scoring guard to an above average one, if not a good one. As always with development, skill issues are far easier to fix than physical ones. NAW is only 25 years old and possessed with fantastic athleticism, so there is plenty of ceiling for him to reach.
And considering how good he is on the other end of the floor, being average offensively still makes him a damn good player.
Defensive Overview
A major theme in Alexander-Walker’s offensive game is chaos. When it comes to the defensive end that chaos becomes incredibly controlled and extremely impactful.
Some numbers before we dig into the film: NAW sits at a 91st percentile block percentage for wings (astounding considering he is undersized somewhat for a wing) and an 84th percentile steal rate. His D-EPM, perhaps the best catch-all star around, ranks eighth in the ENTIRE league. It’s the top mark amongst all wings (or third amongst guards, depending on how you view his position). That’s All-Defense level production, and he should be heavily considered for that honor come season’s end.
There’s one skill in particular that gets him to that level:
Elite Hands
The blocks stat probably indicates that NAW is a guy who can launch and meet a shot in the air. And, granted, he is capable of that:
A large majority of those blocks come from his strips as the shot is going up. It’s hard to differentiate which are steals and which are blocks at times, but regardless the ball is gone before the handler/shooter/roller has a chance to do anything with it.
Stripping perimeter shooters, guys posting him up, and even rotating over to get a strip on a roller or cutter. That’s unbelievable stuff. Hands like these would make Andre Iguodala proud.
It’s not just the skill of stripping shots and handles in clutch moments. Timing is everything. Alexander-Walker is particularly adept at blowing up PNR or DHO plays before they even have a chance to start.
Being a ballhandler or shooter going at NAW is akin to Anakin Skywalker on the platform on Mustafar. Obi-Walker is standing there, telling you “don’t try it”, yet they still do.
Even when he’s not cleanly erasing the play with his hands, Alexander-Walker does a great job at containment.
Perimeter Containment
With Rudy Gobert navigating the back line for Minnesota in a lot of NAW’s minutes, the job is simple: hold up as long as you can before the help arrives. Alexander-Walker excels at doing just that.
Point-of-attack defenders in today’s NBA rarely have the skill to completely shut down a drive by themselves. There is just too much talent to contain without the use of hand-checking. The job has changed: take away the easy shots and funnel your man into the help. Alexander-Walker understands the assignment and executes it to a T.
For his length and size, NAW is also quite good as a screen navigator. He knows how to get skinny and take the right angles to keep himself in the play, even if going around double drags:
Even when he takes the bigger wing assignments who want to post him up to create a size advantage, he’s damn good at containing those possessions by himself:
There are certainly weaknesses in his perimeter game. Some assignments are too quick for him to truly contain.
His physicality on drives can also get him in trouble from time to time. It’s no accident that NAW has a 34th percentile foul rate.
That’s the cost of doing business when you are a perimeter event creator and stopper. You have to toe the line of being overly physical at times. If a handler knows he’s going to take some contact when he creates an advantage against you, it makes them think twice about getting in your grill.
For an already dangerous Minnesota defense, the elite point-of-attack and stock threat coming from NAW puts them over the top as the best defense in the league.
Quality Rotations
Not only does Alexander-Walker do great work on the perimeter, he’s quite good in rotation.
We saw some of those earlier when he rotates to strip a roller or cutter. Even when he’s not creating a possession-ending play, he can do some great things.
I like his ability to dig or provide nail help from the wings. He knows his length and speed afford him time to take risks while not conceding open shots to the man he is helping off. Few players can help off Lauri Markkanen and not get burned by it:
Alexander-Walker also thrives as a low man. If his assignment is planted in the weak corner he has the timing and length to make a real difference when rotating over to the ball:
There are a lot of excellent point-of-attack defenders. Not all of them can be impact rotational defenders, which is a huge key. If the opponents know you are extremely hard to beat, they will choose to go after your teammates. If you can still impact the defense at a high level when off the ball, that’s how you solidify yourself as an elite perimeter guy.
I only have one gripe with his defense: the rebounding. NAW sits in the 1st percentile amongst wings for defensive boards. Only Gary Harris has posted a worse mark amongst wings. Gary is four years older, two inches shorter, and has three fewer inches on his wingspan. That’s not going to cut it for someone with his size and athleticism.
Granted, some of this is context. Playing alongside Rudy Gobert, Karl-Anthony Towns, and Naz Reid leaves few boards up for grabs. But he needs to step up as a rebounder to maximize these lineups. The top five lineups NAW plays with are 45th percentile or worse in defensive rebounding despite having two of those bigs on the floor. He needs to do more there.
Future Outlook
Only 25 years old and coming into his own, Nickeil Alexander-Walker has a very exciting future in this league.
He’s under contract for one more year in Minnesota at an extremely affordable rate. If they can keep this kind of defensive production up as a team, NAW will hit free agency in the theoretical prime of his career as an elite defensive piece and quality spacer/second-side creator. Contenders of all kinds will want him in their rotation as perimeter defense becomes a rare commodity.
If he takes further steps offensively to round out his rim pressure and playmaking, perhaps with a further shooting leap on the cards, he could be one of the better two-way guards around. It’s safe to say Alexander-Walker’s days of being “that other guy” in trades are over. He has arrived.
Tags:
Related Podcasts
No items foundRelated Articles
