This is a postseason rife with new themes and narratives.
The youth are here to take over, yes. The old gods are dead and buried. There is no James, Curry, or Durant in this year’s final four. Even as their powers diminished, those four appeared in four of the last five conference finals. There’s not even a Jimmy Butler, who has made three of the last five.
Parity is another word looming large over this postseason. Since the Warriors dynasty broke apart, the 20 conference finals representatives have been comprised of 12 different teams. Much of the repetition comes out East, by far the weaker conference: the Celtics and Heat have 7 of the 10 ECF showings. Out West, the Nuggets, Mavericks, and Lakers have repeatedly appeared. Yet two conference finals in 5 years don’t scream dominance. More than ever, it feels like everyone has a shot.
That sentiment plays into an even more important theme in my eyes. When you look at the teams that have made deep runs, this year most of all, they took huge swings in acquiring talent. In this era of parity, those who push their chips in first are being rewarded. I want to explore the importance of forcing the window open and the rewards of temerity vs. the cost of timidness.
Dallas Swings, Thunder Go Down Looking
The Mavs-Thunder series is the clearest example of this idea. It’s frankly incredible how directly the trade ties between these two teams caused this series to shift.
Go back to the draft. Dallas owned a lottery choice but seemed intent on moving it to shed salary, and landed on sending Davis Bertans (and most importantly his $17M salary) with the 10th pick to Oklahoma City for the 12th pick. It’s hard to argue with the selections both teams made – OKC taking Cason Wallace while Dereck Lively II fell to Dallas – but the large trade exception Dallas created was huge. Sam Presti was handing an undeserved bailout to the Mavericks.
That exception was used to acquire Richaun Holmes, not exactly a game-changing acquisition, but it enabled them to do several things. After creating extra cap room, Dallas was able to acquire Grant Williams via sign-and-trade with Boston. Williams and Holmes did not pan out but became important salary ballast at the deadline. And this is where Oklahoma City only made things harder on themselves.
On February 8th, Dallas shipped out Holmes and Williams along with salary and picks for Daniel Gafford and P.J. Washington. Not only would these trades have been impossible without OKC’s draft night deal, but they helped even further by exchanging 2028 picks with Dallas to open up a 2024 first Dallas could use in these deals. It gave them the ammo needed to make two big deadline swings.
Meanwhile, Oklahoma City made calls but ultimately settled on a bunt single of a trade in acquiring Gordon Hayward at the deadline. Now fast forward to the conference semifinals to see the impact of those deals.
Gafford recorded 11/7.5/1.3 with 2 blocks per game across 6 matchups with OKC. P.J. Washington was murder for the Thunder, recording 18/8/2 averages while hitting a ridiculous 47% of his 8.2 threes per game. Fittingly, Washington’s free throws at the end of Game 6 closed out the series. Gordon Hayward managed 15 inconsequential minutes in the series. Sam Presti effectively sold the Mavericks a pair of knives only to watch his team be stabbed to death by said knives. One team swung, another watched, and the swinging team ended up moving on.
And they weren’t the only team undone by their own mistakes.
Minnesota Pays Up, Denver Counts Coins
If you follow the NBA on a deeper level, you’re probably aware of the Kroenke vibe. They’re willing to cut checks for big players when necessary but will always find a way to cut costs in the end. This loss to Minnesota felt like a culmination of the pitfalls that philosophy comes with.
Minnesota threw a contract at GM Tim Connelly that Denver did not want to match, and it seemed prudent after last season as GM Calvin Booth helmed a championship team. Yet it was clear to all that it was Connelly who had his prints all over the squad. The entire starting lineup, one that dominated the 2023 playoffs, was drafted or acquired by Connelly before his departure. The Timberwolves saw what he could do and put unequivocal faith in him to build a team that could dismantle his creation.
The Rudy Gobert trade was unfairly maligned at the time and took only a year to prove everyone wrong as he anchored the best defense in the league. While Minnesota took more swings to improve on this Gobert team (acquiring Mike Conley, signing Nickeil Alexander-Walker, and extending their stars) Denver was content with what they had after the title. Calvin Booth told Bruce Brown not to let the door hit him on the way out. They acquired more picks to try and hit through the draft instead of getting proven talent to augment a championship roster.
When these two teams faced off, it was clear what kind of impact these moves made. Minnesota had more depth, more athleticism, and a feeling of confidence that Denver could not match. The stars performed, yes, but the role guys made the difference in the series. NAW’s defense and shooting confidence played a role. Mike Conley hit timely shot after timely shot. And on Denver’s side, guys like Christian Braun and Peyton Watson could not affect the series when the stars sat. If only there was a playmaking and defending wing Denver had in their grasp.
The throughlines of this between the two squads aren’t quite as clear as Dallas and OKC, but you can see how aggression from Minnesota’s front office won over Denver’s complacency. That’s why Minnesota is fighting for its deepest run in franchise history while Denver hits the racing track.
Knicks, Pacers Going Out On Their Shields
Regardless of who won that series, nobody could argue the Pacers or Knicks were withholding chips. Both teams went pedal to the metal during this season and reaped the rewards.
Indiana took perhaps the biggest swing of the entire deadline in acquiring Pascal Siakam, and he responded by powering them through the first two rounds of the playoffs as their leading scorer. Much hand-wringing was done when the deal was made, yet nobody can argue with the results as Indiana reaches their first conference finals in a decade.
The Knicks took an even larger amount of swings. They made moves for OG Anunoby, Bojan Bogdanovic, Alec Burks, Precious Achiuwa, and Donte DiVincenzo over this past year. Donte and OG were among the primary reasons why the Knicks could win a street fight-type series against the Sixers despite the absence of Julius Randle. Had they not completely fallen apart with injuries (I am looking at you with malice, Tom Thibodeau) it feels like they would be playing Boston right now.
Sure, you could argue trading Obi Toppin to the Pacers this offseason burned them. But Toppin was buried on the depth chart at the time and would have likely fallen further behind after that bevy of acquisitions. And a 10 PPG role player who is generally heinous on defense isn’t going to be the one who got away.
Both teams swung, and both teams reaped huge rewards. And it gave them a puncher’s chance against the beasts of the East, another team not shy to make moves.
Boston Doesn’t Back Down
As previously mentioned discussing the parity of the league, only the Heat could match Boston in conference finals appearances over the previous four seasons. Yet those three showings had resulted in zero titles. In this era of “what have you done for me lately?”, many questions were being asked. Is Jayson Tatum the kind of guy who can lead a title winner? Can Jaylen Brown be his #2? At what point do we shake this up?
Instead of caving to those notions, Brad Stevens doubled and tripled down. He boldly chose to trade Marcus Smart for a better-fitting star in Kristaps Porzingis, needing little draft capital to do so. Then he went even further by taking advantage of the Damian Lillard trade to add Jrue Holiday. Instead of breaking this team apart, he only fortified their chances and was rewarded with a 64-win team that is stampeding through the Eastern Conference.
Even with Porzingis injured and unlikely to return until late in the conference finals, Boston holds a 3-0 series lead over the upstart Pacers and are overwhelming favorites to come out of the East, perhaps fully healthy. Jrue has been the playoff chess piece they needed, taking on important defensive matchups while canning 43% of his 4.7 threes per game. The role players don’t need to hit as hard when you boast Jayson, Jaylen, Jrue, Derrick White, Porzingis, and Al Horford. No team in this league can even hold a candle to that top 6.
Boston chose to push in every chip they could and are being thoroughly rewarded.
What Does This Tell Us?
Yes, young stars are indeed playing a major role. One of these four teams will represent a new title winner. All four are led by a star who is 26 years old or younger.
That only enhances the point here. All four teams could have sat back and gone “Well their primes haven’t even started yet, so we can wait” and chose instead to make short-term moves. The 2024 championship winner will be a team led by young stars whose management chose to force the window open instead of waiting for it to open naturally. The teams that have gone home already by and large chose to sit on their hands and wait.
Contention windows don’t stay open as long as you expect. Sometimes they don’t open at all. If you have the stars capable of delivering a deep run toward the Larry O’Brien trophy, take the swings now before your chance passes. It may pass sooner than you think.
Tags:
Related Podcasts
Related Articles
