GG Jackson: The Next Second Round Star

August 16, 2024
gg-jackson-next-star-second-round

GG Jackson II might be the next star plucked out of the shadow realm that is the second round of the NBA draft. As a rookie, he averaged 15 points a game and shot 36% from the three (6 attempts a game). He has the physical tools and coordination to be a real problem offensively (6’8 with a 7 foot wingspan). He’s in a good situation team-wise, Memphis has a talented roster and he is a clear path to playing time at the small forward position.

The usual issue with pumping up a young player that scored a lot on a terrible team is that they often only know how to contribute as an on-ball scorer. When they start playing with better talent, their time spent on-ball shrinks and so does their impact/production. The good news about GG is that he’s already a good off-ball player. He was solid as a spot up option both as a shooter (37% on C&S 3s) and attacking closeout. His combination of size and body control lets him overwhelm smaller players at the rim while slithering around larger rim protectors.

His analytics look great for a first year player. Jackson was a slightly above average offensive player in O-LEBRON (58th% in Basketball Index’s offensive all-in-one metric). He was a good scorer at the basket, posting above average grades in Rim Shot Creation and Rim Shot Making (Shot making metrics look at how you shoot versus expectations via shot quality). He quickly garnered respect off-ball finishing 73rd% in Off-Ball Gravity (This metric looks at how much defensive attention you get). He was lethal on cuts (97th% in Cut PPP) and respectable as a C&S 3pt option (68th% in C&S 3PT Shot Making). 

What makes all this insane is that he’s only 19 years old. Here is the same graph looking at 19 year olds over the last 10 years in the same stats. (Devin Booker and Jayson Tatum for reference)

The metric that put GG on my radar as a potential star is his Drive Foul Rate Drawn%. This stat does exactly what it sounds like, it looks at how often a player is fouled when they drive to the basket. This number is a good proxy for dominance when coupled with a high drive rate. He not only has the highest Drive Foul Rate Drawn% for a 19 year old over the last decade (seven Drives/75 to qualify), only four players posted a better rate this season: Jayson Tatum, Joel Embiid, and Paolo Banchero. Elite company for the young forward.

His off-ball skills combined with his elite foul drawing on drives paint’s a bright future for Jackson. The former 5 star recruit was able to put together a lengthy highlight tape in only 48 games as a rookie. Next season he will benefit from playing alongside elite playmaker Ja Morant, which will hopefully boost his shot quality (35% in Overall Shot Quality). The physical tools are there and the analytics highlight some extreme bright spots. With some more seasoning and improved roster around him, GG Jackson II could soon find himself on his way to an All-Star game.

Tags:

Related Podcasts

No items found
No items found

Related Articles

Lessons-from-the-draft-cycle
July 14, 2023
With the first Swish Theory draft cycle in the books, it’s time to recap the cycle in this follow-up to my final piece with The Stepien. Here I’ll be looking…
pure-hooper-index
May 30, 2023
Bucket getters. Ethical Hoopers. “That-boy-nice”. The Pure Hooper. Whatever way you would like to phrase it, there is a beauty to watching a player hit his defender with a hesi-cross…
Whiteboard-Prospects
May 9, 2023
Concept The sample for NBA draft prospects is tiny. Even if we have perfect data for a player’s prep and pro careers, the top draft prospects are typically aged 18-22,…