Nearly a year ago, I wrote about Peyton Watson as an emerging rotation piece for the Denver Nuggets. If you’re not inclined to read it first (though I would highly recommend it), here is the short version:
Watson showed himself to be a potent defensive weapon, on and off the ball, and the toolsy 21-year-old proved himself worthy of the defending champs as they sought to replace a departing Bruce Brown. Offensive struggles were there to be sure, to put it mildly; Watson’s -3.4 offensive estimated plus-minus was the worst mark in the league. A year later, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is gone, and Aaron Gordon is sidelined for at least a month with a calf injury. More than ever the Nuggets need Watson to step into his own.
The move into the starting lineup will be an inflection point for how Denver views Watson’s long-term potential. The thrifty Nuggets front office will look closely at how he responds before an extension-eligible offseason. Is Watson proving himself as a potential starting-type piece, or just another defensive wing struggling to find an offensive niche?
We will focus heavily on the offensive skills here to see how Watson can justify his spot on the floor and prove himself as a capable cog in the machine.
Defense Check-In
Guess what – it’s still great!
At the end of the day, this is a development-based series, so I place very little value in “guy who kicks ass at X skill still kicks ass”. If things had changed, I would indicate otherwise, but Watson is again showing why he is one of the most exciting defensive wings in the league.
The underlying stats are very good. Watson’s 2.4% block rate, a 98th percentile mark amongst forwards, is somehow a career-low for the third-year UCLA alum. The steal rate has increased to an 83rd percentile mark as Watson continues to grow as an event creator. Film backs up what has been an impressive season in rotation, making impact plays all over the floor.
I’ll have my eye on some underlying numbers concerning his off-ball defense; the foul rate is once again troublesome and he’s failing to make a consistent impact as a rebounder. But that’s for another time – we are here to focus on Watson trying to find himself offensively.
Offense Check-In
Cutting
The change over to the starting lineup has placed even more emphasis on this facet of Watson’s offensive game. If you play off Nikola Jokic and you can’t shoot (3/16 from deep this year), you’d better be moving around. Peyton has done a pretty solid job at finding open space and can take advantage of being ignored by the defense.
Consistently finding the right space is already an issue, however. I expect this to improve during his stint as a starter while playing with better spacing and off Nikola but it’s iffy at times. What’s more concerning are the bad finishes at the rim once he finds the space.
Watson is finishing only 43% of his looks at the rim this year, a brutal mark especially when factoring in his size and athleticism. He needs to work on staying within himself as a finisher by not trying to do too much. A little slow-down now and then to draw some fouls would be a boost as well.
An interesting wrinkle to his offensive game has developed over the past few games, one that could help alleviate some of his rim-finishing concerns.
Screening
In 80 games last year, Watson acted as a screen-and-roll option on 15 total possessions. Now through 8 games, he’s been the screener on 5 possessions. For #onpace math-doers, that would put him well on pace to triple that number from the previous season.
There’s been some experimentation with Watson as a guard screener for Russell Westbrook and Jamal Murray early in the season.
What interests me more is the 5-4 screening actions with Jokic. Nikola’s two-man game with Aaron Gordon is a crucial part of the offense, and coach Michael Malone is trying to incorporate those elements in Gordon’s absence with Watson as a substitute.
By no means will Watson screen actions become a focal point of the offense anytime soon, but anything and everything should be tried to overcome his woeful half-court offense.
At least there is one area of the offense he can make a real difference in.
Transition
Watson still looks quite good as a transition weapon, and his bounce has led to most transition defenders hacking him hard to prevent finishes – provided they can catch him.
What concerns me about Watson’s development as a transition weapon is his failure to make the right passing reads. Forcing teams to foul is great, but too often he flies into a crowd while missing easy passes.
He’s made some decent reads out there to be sure, and looks pretty good when keeping his head up to find his passing lanes.
The open floor may be the best way for Watson to contribute to this offense in the short term while finding ways to be useful in the halfcourt. But like his halfcourt game, the lack of overall feel shows.
Here’s hoping Watson can use this time in the starting lineup to further develop his offensive game and find ways he can help his teammates by cutting, screening, rebounding, and filling every gap he can. He shows so much promise on the defensive end of the floor, and much like the Nuggets, I am hoping he can show enough offensively over the next month to warrant his place as a rotation fixture.
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