JJJ And The Knife’s Edge of Small Market Team Building
Header graphic by Emiliano Naiaretti.
I love it when a trade comes out of nowhere and rocks our socks off. Two days before the deadline, the Utah Jazz stunned the world by swinging a trade for Memphis Grizzlies forward Jaren Jackson Jr. Hey, NBA insiders, what is the point of you existing if we got no wind of this?
The Jazz are a fascinating case in small-market team building as it relates to my own team-building philosophies. Allow me to explain why I think this trade was very short-sighted and potentially disastrous for the Jazz.
Addressing the Talent Deficit
The NBA has always been a league of the haves and the have-nots. If you have the superstar talent, you are in the mix. If you don’t have it, you spend your time searching for that talent. The Jazz learned the hard way that having stars, but not superstars, does not win you titles. Donovan Mitchell and Rudy Gobert were a great tandem that led to a lot of regular-season success, but always came up wanting against teams with better top-end talent. That’s how we got here in the first place.
Utah has taken up a different tack since Danny Ainge came into town. Soon after his arrival in December 2021, Ainge shipped Mitchell and Gobert out of town for 11 combined picks and pick swaps. It was an admission of failure for that era of the team, and the acceptance of a stark reality: a huge volume of draft picks and a lengthy tank is the only way to get blue-chip talent in Salt Lake City.
Luxuries afforded to other teams are not afforded to the Jazz. Teams like the Lakers, Celtics, Knicks, and Warriors can fall back-asswards into star talent. Free agency is largely dead anyway, and no franchise-altering star is forcing their way to Utah via trade. So you can either pay a king’s ransom in a trade to get that talent, or you can hope the lottery balls bounce your way.
Last year was their best shot. Utah’s tank was successful, bottoming out with a 17-65 record that landed them the top odds for the No. 1 pick. Still, there was only a 14% chance of landing Cooper Flagg, a slam-dunk franchise-altering talent. Instead, they were bumped down to five, taking Ace Bailey. Womp womp. So it goes with the tank.
This year was another prime opportunity to tank into that blue-chip talent. Darryn Peterson, Cam Boozer, and AJ Dybantsa all have the look of franchise players. Odds are good that if you secure a spot in the top four, you’re coming away with a top-tier prospect, something the Jazz have not had in a decade. Until Tuesday, things were on track; Utah was sixth in lottery odds before the Jackson Jr. deal, with a 37.2% chance of a top four pick and 9% chance of the top selection. Not bad odds of changing your franchise forever.
Then the trade happened. And the evaluation changed completely.
The Sin of Gambling
Here’s why the Jazz are in such a precarious position after the trade. Utah is at the back end of the real tankers behind Sacramento, New Orleans, Indiana, Brooklyn, and Washington. All six of these teams will be racing to the bottom. But there are more contestants in this tank battle, and Utah just gave one of them an admission ticket. Here’s what the tank race looked like at the time of the trade:
At best, the five teams in front of the Jazz are standing pat, if not selling off more pieces. That makes it difficult to pass them in the standings, even if you lock JJJ in a closet for the rest of the season alongside Lauri Markkanen. You also have to look at the teams behind them.
The Bucks are actively shopping Giannis, and even if he doesn’t move, he’s going to be out injured and not motivated to return anytime soon. The Mavericks are in the same boat with AD and have other pieces to sell off. Then you have the Grizzlies, who just shed their most valuable player and seem likely to move more, possibly Ja Morant. All three of these teams got the memo: it’s over for us. Let’s hope the lottery gods bless us as we look to the future.
But the Jazz apparently missed the memo. Their chances of tanking into top-level talent worsened because of the players they acquired, and they also helped a team behind them tank. To me, that is a disastrous risk; making it 1% less likely that you get Darryn Peterson is catastrophic, even if your current chance of getting him is only 9%.
It’s also worth mentioning that the Jazz have protections on this year’s pick. If it falls outside the top eight, it goes to the Oklahoma City Thunder. Sam Presti, you dirty dog. Sitting at sixth in the odds means the Jazz only have a 3.8% chance of losing the pick. Seventh, that rises to 14.2%. Eighth, and you’re up to 39.2%. Tumble to ninth, and there’s a 79.7% chance it’s gone. The margins sure are thin.
There is an argument to be made that a boom-bust approach to this pick has merit. But look at this Jazz roster and the draft picks that have been worth keeping. Keyonte George and Walker Kessler, arguably their two best rookie-scale building blocks, were taken outside of the lottery. Kyle Filipowski was a high second-rounder. Isaiah Collier was late first. Jury is still out on Ace Bailey, but without question, the majority of the talent they’ve had worth keeping is outside of the top eight picks. Losing this pick to the Thunder would be a huge blow to the rebuild.
That is a smaller concern because the math still favors Utah, though less so than before the trade. The bigger draft concern for me is the 2027 first-round pick. The most favorable of Utah, Minnesota, and Cleveland’s first-round picks are going to Memphis. Now the Jazz have 1.5 seasons to turn it around, or else a primo draft pick is going out the door. And that’s assuming that they are worse than Minnesota and Cleveland. Jaren certainly improves their outlook (more on that soon), but it’s a big gamble that they can ascend after two straight abysmal seasons.
This is the gamble that Danny Ainge is making. He’s willing to harm his chances in this current lottery while punting on his best 2027 draft pick; those are two significant opportunities to get a blue-chip player that changes the franchise. And he did it all for a player I’m not convinced is all that transformative.
Where Is The Ceiling?
As discussed at the beginning, the Jazz got here by moving on from a core that was good, but not good enough. I’m willing to bet that this new core they’re working on is more of the same.
On paper, I like their emphasis on size. Walker Kessler, when healthy, is a tremendous interior defender and rebounder. JJJ and Lauri both provide floor spacing, secondary rim protection, and good rotational defense. Kessler and Markkanen, being plus positional rebounders, cover up for Jackson Jr.’s well-documented weakness on the glass. When on the floor together, I like that trio.
It also fits well with Keyonte George, who has been the breakout star for the Jazz at a time when they desperately need one. He’s shown himself to be an electric perimeter scorer who can shoulder a heavy usage burden. Keyonte can stir the drink enough for Jaren and Lauri, while that massive frontcourt trio covers for him defensively.
Theoretically, that big frontcourt trio, plus Keyonte and Ace Bailey, can work together on the floor. Hell, maybe it’s good enough to get them out from the bottom of the West. But where is the upside here?
If the Jazz luck into Darryn Peterson, all is forgiven. He’s got superstar perimeter creator written all over him, and would fit well at the two guard with that lineup. But that’s not something you can rely on. Assuming the Jazz don’t get one of the top picks (or lose the pick outright), the path to climbing out of the cellar is tough.
Utah has to fix a defense that has ranked in the bottom two in defensive rating for the last three seasons. JJJ and Kessler are a great step towards fixing that, but with so many perimeter players that cannot defend, it’s a tall task just to become average. You also need to take further offensive steps, which should be easier with Keyonte’s breakout and the great offensive mind of head coach Will Hardy.
There is an avenue for this team to become passable at both ends of the floor. JJJ does make a lot of their pieces click on both ends in theory. But passable doesn’t win playoff series, let alone get you to the mountaintop. That’s why the Jazz still need to be chasing superstars. And that gets awfully difficult when you look at the timeline here.
Utah will lock up Walker Kessler (RFA) and Keyonte George (rookie extension eligible) this offseason, locking in their core players for at least three seasons. That is a huge plus. After you take care of that, it’s time to win. Ask the New Orleans Pelicans about the dangers of shortening your rebuild. I’m not sure if you have looked at the Western Conference recently, but things are awfully tough out there.
A lot of the teams in the mix this year aren’t going anywhere. The Thunder, Spurs, and Nuggets will contend as long as they have their respective superstars. Both the Timberwolves and Lakers have flaws, but they have the superstars who deliver when it’s winning time. Houston has an aging superstar flanked by excellent young talent and a hoard of picks to trade. From there, things get murkier; the Clippers and Warriors are fading, but not dead yet. Phoenix and Portland have star talent and a rising cast of role players. Realistically, how far can the Jazz climb into this picture? My money is on a play-in ceiling for next year’s team, at best.
Chances are good that they’re forking over a lottery pick next year. That’s another chance at blue-chip talent gone through the draft. They will have other picks down the road, but that’s another tricky proposition.
If you’re good enough to make the playoffs in 2028, then the window for a high draft pick is gone. Then you’re reliant on later draft hits, which they have managed before, but it’s a low percentage gamble. Adding superstar talent through the draft is all but eliminated. That leaves only one other realistic avenue.
War Chest: Emptied
So many of the draft picks the Jazz had are gone now. They had four surplus first-round picks remaining before the JJJ trade; now they only have one. That pick falls in 2029 and is either a Minnesota or Cleveland pick. Ainge consolidated three lesser firsts to get a 2031 Phoenix unprotected first, then shipped it to Memphis in this deal. That was arguably their most prized asset remaining.
Let’s say a superstar that fits Utah’s timeline becomes available. As we’ve seen recently, nothing is off the table. The Jazz could have hoarded their picks and attempted to blow the doors off someone this offseason by being able to trade up to eight first-round picks, plus swaps. That’s a war chest few can match. After the JJJ trade, that dangling carrot is gone. They’re down to five picks, most of which are their own.
Don’t get me wrong, this Jazz team is vastly better now than it was yesterday. But to make serious noise, they need the guy. The draft avenues to getting that guy have decreased, and the trade avenues have decreased as well. It feels like the Jazz have painted themselves into a corner.
Time Is A Flat Circle
Jazz fans certainly have fond memories of the Mitchell-Gobert days. They cleaned up in the regular season, made the playoffs for six straight years, and brought a level of consistent excitement that was desperately needed in Utah. At the same time, they only won three playoff series in those six years and failed to get through to the Conference Finals. The West was as it always is: a murderer’s row of superstars and contending teams.
It seems that the Jazz yearn for that once again. The lottery balls haven’t fallen their way so far, and they’re tired of this intentional losing. So it’s time to assemble a handful of second-rate stars and become competitive with contention out of reach.
That’s not the worst thing ever. There’s no shame in staying competitive, but it does place a hard ceiling on your team. I’ve written before about why the Jazz are not going about their teardown in the right way; now I see them giving up on the rebuild early and settling for mediocrity. If that’s your thing, cool. But it’s not how I would go about turning a small-market team into a contender.
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