Duke’s freshman, the top recruit in the nation playing above his age at just recently turned 18, has taken on mega offensive usage for the Blue Devils. While his efficiency has lagged given this significant change in role, the overall team impact is still there (Flagg is top ten in the country in RAPM), largely driven by his defense.

Flagg is one of the most heralded prospects in recent memory, named the Gatorade National Player of the Year, Naismith Player of the Year, and McDonald’s All-American as a senior in 2023-24, averaging 16.5 points, 7.5 rebounds, 3.8 assists and 2.7 blocks per game to lead Montverde to a 33-0 record and a national championship title. Cooper was also a 2022 Men’s U17 National Team member at age 15, which won gold at the 2022 FIBA U17 Basketball World Cup, averaging 9.3 points and a team-leading 10.0 rebounds and 2.9 blocks per game. So far into the 2023-24 season, Flagg is 8th among high major freshmen in Box Plus-Minus since 2008, just below Evan Mobley and above James Harden.

The Offense

Cooper Flagg’s biggest strengths as an offensive player are rarely on display at Duke, for schematic purposes. Duke has thrown Flagg into the fire as a pick-and-roll operator, which has been a developmental positive in some ways while drastically reducing his offensive efficiency.

Flagg, at his best, is attacking the rim. Typical Flagg fashion is going 110% speed at the front of the cup when he decides to go, but that decision is often complicated by a role that changes possession to possession.

Flagg has run 6.2 pick-and-roll plays per game that end in a shot from him or his teammate, a foul drawn, or a turnover committed. Pick and rolls are his most common play type as a play finisher, his 6th most common play type as a junior at Montverde, and during his play with Maine United 16U. It is difficult to overstate how significant of a shift this has been.

Cooper Flagg’s usage is an anomaly compared to his past: 42% of his plays have come from playtypes where he has been his least efficient (pick and rolls as ballhandler, coming off of screens, handoffs, and isos), while his most efficient playtypes (cuts, pick and rolls as roll man, and putbacks) make up a mere 15%. Even his fourth most efficient play type, post-ups, are at a career low percentage of possessions.

Synergy data

Needless to say, Flagg needs to attack the rim more, and it’s hardly his fault.

Stripped down to the basics, Flagg is very good at picking the ball up and getting it to the rim.

When he can roam off-ball, he is more prone to picking up the scraps with his elite ground coverage and anticipation:

But Flagg is figuring out how to manufacture rim attempts while on the ball as well.

Here he has the slower-footed Johni Broome guarding him on the perimeter. Coop has advanced his setup craft into drives dramatically over the years. Now, nearly every lead into a drive is initiated with a subtle (or not-so-subtle) rip or pump fake. These create the smallest of gaps needed to hit the accelerator, where his zero to sixty speed shines.

These traits blend well with post-up work, too. Flagg’s ideal usage would likely involve plenty of high post-ups where he can muscle against weaker opponents:

These should be used when opponents realize they can’t stick true bigs on Flagg with his speed.

Flagg’s outside shot is firmly in the “okay” category, where there are flashes of very good but signs of poor touch as well. But he has become especially more adept at turning deep pull-ups into short pull-ups or leaning layups:

Overall, the proclivity towards deep pull-ups has been the biggest flaw in Flagg’s game, a flaw present even in his Maine United 15U tape. But he has shown a dedication to drive craft, handle progression, and willingness to initiate physicality that all speak to the numerous routes he has to provide offensive value.

While he’s shooting only 30% on pull-up twos at Duke, the process continues to improve, visibly on tape.

Checking out the full shooting profile for Flagg reveals the weak points. Below one can find Flagg’s shooting attempts and percentages for different kinds of looks using data from available Maine United, Montverde, and Duke games.

Flagg’s outside shooting profile looks decent if not outright good for a forward. It’s the pull-up twos that are the major issue, especially given the high volume of attempts. While the free throw percentage likes his overall shooting form, the relatively poor layup efficiency points to weaker touch near the hoop. But it is mostly an issue of decision-making, as Flagg could be found taking the like:

These shots can be very difficult to get out of one’s system. The proclivity for tough pull-ups goes against the grain compared to the rest of the game for the high-motor, physicality-inviting Flagg, encouraging that maybe he will grow out of it with more physical development.

I am encouraged by continually simplifying mechanics, however, and his pull-up threes have always been a solid option when the offense stagnates otherwise or there is a defensive breakdown allowing him to walk into it.

The weak deep midrange threat, however, has made the pick and roll conduction more difficult.

Flagg’s assist rate of 24% is elite for a forward, but just “pretty good” for a college player of Flagg’s usage in general. His passing reads are strong, if not complex, and Flagg has shown a little bit of manipulation here and there.

Back to his 15-year-old AAU days, Flagg could be found experimenting as a passer:

He got in trouble being over-ambitious here and there, more frequently than high-value assists.

Accuracy was also an occasional issue as well. However, by the end of his junior Montverde season, Flagg had figured out passing manipulation, displaying some high-level misdirection.

He started using his drive threat more to set up teammates, a trait that would carry over to Duke. Flagg has become more proactive going through his actions.

He figured out how to sequence, as well, as shown in the clips below:

https://twitter.com/DraftPow/status/1876360567616589976

At Duke, he has provided more table-setting passing, a function of his running ample pick and roll, initiating from the perimeter early in possessions. Every time Flagg has hit Duke’s best roller in Khaman Maluach has resulted in a bucket or a drawn foul.

Flagg’s greatest swing skill is his handle, though his craft improvement as a driver has compensated immensely. He loves going behind the back into a middie or spinning heading through the lane, both reliable for creating shots. As mentioned above, his habits appear to be improving as far as seeking out closer distances for finishes, but that is only enabled by him figuring out how to work within his athleticism.

Although Flagg is an elite run and jump athlete, with great acceleration and upper body flexibility, his one failing is it takes him a beat when changing directions on a 180-degree plane, and he can have a heavier stride than is capable of being nimble through traffic. That lack of highly specific dance moves holds back his creator upside, as he instead will have to attack larger gaps. As we have seen in many larger creators, however, such as Tatum or Giannis, having big, heavy strides can still create seams when combined with a high degree of coordination. Flagg has that.

Cooper Flagg is best when roaming on offense (much like defense, which we will get to shortly), attacking the rim hard in transition, picking up putbacks, or just generally finding the ball in space. But he has shown advanced craft for a player of his size in developing as a driver and with shooting upside as indicated by a very strong free throw percentage. Given his athletic tools and measure of premium, dribble-pass-shoot skills at 6’9”, Flagg’s upside is a top 20 offensive player in the league.

The Defense

Here is where Flagg truly shines, though his high offensive usage at Duke is likely holding back his defensive playmaking as well.

Flagg is a monster defensively for many reasons, with three standing out: his hand-eye coordination, his leaping ability, and his ground coverage. And his motor and sense of positioning. And his ability to make plays without fouling. Okay, that was more than three.

Let’s start with the hand-eye coordination.

https://twitter.com/DraftPow/status/1820114289643954457

Yes, Flagg’s ability to meet the ball with his hand is among the best historically. You can tell this through the accuracy with which he strips or blocks the ball, and in an instant. In particular, in the above, I am taken by the “dead arm” blocks, where a player leaps so accurately they don’t have to readjust their arm position when falling down for the block. This is a quality displayed by many of the best shot-blocking players of all time.

At 6’9”, Flagg is unlikely to reach that echelon, but his help-side rim protection is extremely valuable. Duke holds opponents to 48% rim shooting with him on the court compared to 55% when Flagg is off.

While Flagg appears to conserve energy at times (he did just recently 18 years old while second in the ACC in usage), he has still put up the 8th-best combined stock rate in his conference. When he goes for the ball, he generally gets it, even against the NCAA’s best players.

Flagg’s most notable performance likely came against Spain in FIBA U-17 play when he was just 15 years old. In a slimmed-down offensive role next to some of the US’s top talents, Flagg put up 10 points, 17 rebounds, 8 steals and 4 blocks. With the ball hardly in his hands on the perimeter, Flagg was a wrecking ball all over the court.

https://twitter.com/DraftPow/status/1877069539705303502

This is why it is difficult to imagine any negative outcome for Flagg: even if the primary stuff doesn’t work out – and perhaps especially – he has his strengths to “fall back on.”

Flagg’s leaping ability combines marvelously with his hand-eye. Look how instantaneously he gets off the ground:

And how high he can climb at his maximum:

This vertical, combined with motor, is why Flagg is one of the ACC’s best rebounders on the defensive end. He hauls 22% of opponent attempts, but also displays superstar traits in how he is able to high point the ball:

There are few outcomes where Flagg isn’t a positive rebounder or shot blocker for position and is most likely going to be one of the best wings in the league at both.

He has other extremely positive athletic traits, too, namely his acceleration. Combined with his anticipation and aforementioned hand-eye, Flagg will be a steal maven as well. Just check out these steals on nearly back-to-back possessions.

Notice as well how easily these lead to fast breaks. Flagg’s transition frequency at Duke of 14% is half of his usage compared to Montverde or Maine United. Those are easy points being given up on schematically.

Flagg is likely to be a very good on-ball defender, perhaps an elite one depending on where his strength ends up. He is most threatening one-on-one for his steals potential, as his man has to be extra cautious when attacking. Opponents have only made 2 buckets on 11 attempted iso possessions against Flagg, and only 22% on all attempts before Duke.

With his shot blocking, thievery, and on-ball defense likely to translate at 6’9”, it would be surprising if Flagg never made an All-Defense team. That puts him squarely in the top 10 for NBA defenders.

The Player

Cooper Flagg is a menace and is likely to show even more in the tank in the NBA than he did at Duke. With a reversion back to pre-Duke usage, his efficiency will improve, though will continue to build on the on-ball equity he has displayed to this point. Flagg cares deeply about basketball craft, as shown by his handle, driving, and passing progression over the years. At just recently turned 18, Flagg will continue to develop physically, leading to even more easy buckets and the ability to set up teammates while thriving defensively. The sport will keep clicking, the game will slow down and Flagg will show the same dominance he did at a much younger age at every stop. When he’s in his prime, there is an easy case to be made for Flagg ending up a consistent top 5 player.

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A childhood refugee from South Sudan, Khaman Maluach was late to basketball at age 13, joining the NBA Academy Africa before playing in the professional Basketball Africa League at age 15. Maluach has shown enormous strides year to year from that point, initially utterly lost on the court. With his legs now beneath him, Maluach has the chance to continue to develop not just big man technique but some midrange and perimeter skill as well – particularly the shot. If this trajectory can continue as he kicks off his NBA career, the ceiling is lofty for the 7’2” Maluach.

The Offense

Let’s get one item out of the way: Khaman Maluach will shoot.

First, let us remember the lesson from Owen Phillips’ recent newsletter: the act of shooting is more important than shooting well. There is a much stronger correlation between three-point volume and how much you impact spacing than just your raw three-point percentage. It is natural instinct, as a defender, to run at whoever is shooting regardless of the identity. It is a tough habit to break and that is why volume rules supreme.

You may wonder how this applies to Khaman Maluach, who has taken seven threes in 21 games with Duke. But it doesn’t take too much time watching his pre-Duke tape to see it. Maluach shot four threes per 36 minutes in his team in the Basketball Africa League, where he was a pro from ages 15 to 17.

Even from that young age, Maluach was extremely willing for a big. That four threes per 36 number is also in the context of playing mostly in the interior. When he got even somewhat decent looks, he let it fly.

The ball misses more than it makes in that video, but his percentages in the BAL were good for age and position, 32% on 57 attempts. Focus as well on the fluidity, where Maluach is able to keep his balance even when shooting off of some movement. The release is quick and high with a good follow-through. Draft analysts talk about energy transfer and the smoothness from set up to release jumps off the screen.

The key to whether his shot makes or misses is his right foot. The one inconsistency in his form, when he turns it inward too much he loses his distance accuracy. Every time the foot faces relatively direct to the basket, the form is sweet. It is unfortunate how little interest Duke has in developing this part of his game, but the instincts are there. Convincingly.

Khaman Maluach’s bread and butter, however, will be his rim finishing. Maluach is flat-out one of the best lob threats the NCAA has seen. He is 23 for 24 as the roll man finisher at the basket, with his 95% mark surpassing that of all recent big men prospects: https://x.com/DraftPow/status/1881734090669408281.

Four major components make Maluach possibly the best recent roll man prospect. First, his standing reach is 9’8”. That is an inch more than Wemby. No more need to contextualize that. Second, his screening is excellent. Maluach has already mastered the art of the moving screen which doesn’t get called. This opens up all the space needed.

Third, Maluach has excellent touch near the basket, able to force the ball in even when he can’t finish the lob. He is 21 for 27 (78%) on layups! Compare that again to our big man comparables: Chet was 71%, Mobley 66%, Lively only 52%. Khaman is always two inches away from the rim when he reaches up and can softly guide the ball in from there.

Last, Maluach is excellent at waiting until the last moment to leap. That is perhaps the most essential rim running trait of all. Much like his shooting technique, his footwork is precise and light, shuffling just as needed before taking off. He is a highly accurate leaper, more important than any max vertical when you are already that tall (though his max vertical is not bad, either).

These four factors together made Maluach one of the best rim threats in the entire BAL by age 16. A true lob threat savant.

These factors also make Maluach a consistent threat on the offensive glass. He is in the 88th percentile for putback frequency led by a 16% offensive rebound rate, finishing those at a good 69% efficiency. He gets fouled on nearly a third of his putback possessions as well. Even in the absence of strength to get positioning, as one of the skinniest players in the BAL until age 17, Maluach could reach over opponents in a timely fashion.

Maluach’s true upside talks happen when we get into the rest of his offensive game. If you made it this far, I can reward you with an unholy player comparison for Khaman Maluach: Kristaps Porzingis (mostly the Celtics version). We covered the shooting, as I think Porzingis’ career 36% from three is not out of the question for Maluach if things click. Maluach has shown some promise working out of the post as well, even though Duke has removed these reps entirely.

In the BAL, Maluach was more free to explore the studio space, even if post ups were far from a staple. He seemed to spontaneously add new things when he did get these reps, including a Dirk fade and some over-the-shoulder reads. Perhaps the most promising clip below is his mid-post arm sweep foul draw, a ploy far ahead of his 16 years of age, or for someone in their third year of playing the sport.

With his height, touch and shooting form, there is little reason to think Maluach can’t score out of the post. But where we REALLY get to his upside is even beyond. Yes, we’re about to hype up the handle and passing of a big with a 0.4 assist to turnover ratio.

Compared to his pre-NCAA tape, Maluach is under highly restrictive circumstances at Duke. While not a point center or anything close to it, Maluach is no stranger to bringing the ball up an open court or even dribbling between his legs on the perimeter. Most encouragingly, he showed a couple of fake dribble handoffs which led to one or two dribble drives and thunderous rim finishes.

Here comes into play the benefits of compounding skills. Maluach’s size makes the distance to the rim shorter. Maluach’s shot means you have to provide some space to drive. Maluach’s screening means you have to honor the screen receiver as well. Even if it is just a single dribble, Maluach can cram it driving from the perimeter.

The below clips are not perfect, but again are in the context of a seven-foot-two player new to the sport, coming from soccer, with very limited ballhandling experience. At age 18, this will only look better and better, but the reps need to come somehow, even if infrequent.

The biggest question mark with Maluach’s offensive game is the passing but, yes, I am relatively optimistic there too. The instincts are not the issue – Maluach has shown time and again he understands where the leverage point in the defense is. The issue is the timing and strength, technique to deliver a pass with force. Those factors cannot be entirely written off as due to age, but Maluach’s improving pattern recognition (more on that later) means he is not bound to the ATO basement.

Maluach’s offensive upside is tremendous due to potentially compounding skills at his size; however, even if one or multiple do not pan out, he is highly likely to be one of the best roll threats in the league. That’s the floor.

The Defense

Let us start with the obvious: Khaman Maluach is a very large person who also moves very well on their feet. Assuming even a fairly low baseline of instincts and technical proficiency, that has value. And Maluach’s instincts and technique have been improving…rapidly.

There is enough evidence in the tape to suggest Maluach would be able to snuff out drives by quicker bigs or slower wings, and still get decent contests against guards. While I would not call him fully switchable, he provides enough needed for the defense to re-set and relieve him.

Maluach started his BAL career at age 15, his third year playing basketball. It would be shocking if he, up against veterans as much as twenty years older, stood out as far as positioning or defensive instincts. Maluach’s earliest instincts remind me of someone playing a video game without knowing the controls, pressing random buttons. He constantly tried to draw charges seconds too early, or did not understand when to contest as the offensive player neared the hoop.

Maluach showed some high-level instincts regardless. While the technique was typically lacking, Maluach still made help rotations at timely occasions. When you’re his size, it does not take perfect timing, but the degree of anticipation here and there suggests some latent talent. His 7.5% block rate at age 15 is a testament to some awareness, far ahead of the curve for a recent player in a professional league. While the BAL is among the worst pro leagues for competition level (if not the single worst), the gap in cognitive development for a 15-year-old compared to someone at their athletic peak forces these rotations to be timely to ensnare a block.

Maluach’s block rate rose to 8.1% at age 16 and stayed high at 7.9% at age 17 in the BAL, but has fallen down to 6% at Duke. In spite of this seeming regression, I am highly encouraged by the sharp improvement in technique from his earlier years. The help defense was already useful, but primary rim protection fully lacking pre-Duke. Maluach’s underdeveloped pattern recognition, very recent to the sport, held him back from knowing when to flip his hips or anticipate when the shot was going up. While not “pressing random buttons” like before, opponents knew they could feast inside due to his lack of consistent contests. As a sign of how physically talented Maluach is regardless of these bad tendencies, he still won defensive MVP at the Basketball Without Borders Global camp in early 2024.

Even throughout the season, it is evident Maluach has refined his technique and begun to better anticipate offensive actions. He has always been one of the most vocal players on the defensive side of the court, now clearly locked in with his teammates. Duke’s defense has a ridiculous 86.7 defensive rating when Khaman is on the court, compared to a still elite 90.1 when off. However, their opponents’ rim shooting goes down a sharp 12 percentage points from 57% to 45% when Maluach is on the court, and on lower volume, too (numbers versus top 100 teams only). The supporting cast is elite, but the numbers are what they’re supposed to be for a primary rim-protecting prospect.

Just check out the video above, a compilation of Maluach’s high and lowlights over the past four seasons, where the improvement is obvious. His sense of timing has become superb, and technique has improved substantially. He is still out of place here and there, but the frequency has been dramatically limited.

The last part of the equation relates to both ends of the court: physical strength. Maluach has added a ton of weight from being perhaps the skinniest player in the BAL at age 15, but still stands to gain from continued development. He notably held his ground against Kentucky’s 262-pound Amari Williams on repeated post attempts.

Maluach’s defensive rebounding has been very low for a 7’2” player with Duke, with only a 19% defensive rebounding rate after posting a 27% figure his final season in the BAL. His hesitancy in going out and getting it grows, but has been increasing in confidence there, too. When he does spring, he is able to high point the ball in an instant, showing the talent is there (I wrote about the importance of this trait here).

The lower figure does cast some doubt on his ability to become a dominant rebounder, but given the physical tools and developing instincts, I do not see why could not, either. His rebounding rate has already been improving, in fact, at 22% in conference play (#4 for high major freshmen).

The Player

With his floor spacing potential, rim finishing superiority, and potential ball skill competency, Maluach’s ceiling as an offensive player is quite high. Due to the variety of ways he can improve, the floor is high, too. If Kristaps Porzingis is the reasonable upside comparison on offense, that puts Khaman as a +2-3 points per 100 offensive player in his peak, in the range of 25th to 50th best offensive player in the league. If the shot really hits and he is able to string together a couple dribbles consistently, we smash through that ceiling.

On defense, Maluach will likely take up primary rim protector duties, perhaps in bench units to begin his career, rather than as a helpside four. He is mobile enough, however, to play next to another big simultaneously (once again, think Porzingis next to Horford). This once again speaks to Maluach’s favorable combination of high ceiling and floor. If the instincts continue to improve at this pace, he will become a highly effective drop defender, even by NBA standards. He might be able to do that while not being taken advantage on switches, either. I don’t think a +1.5-2.0 points per 100 contribution on defense is out of the question, in the range of tenth to thirtieth best defender in the league.

Adding it all up, Maluach could range from a +2 to +6 points per 100 added in his prime. In simpler terms, I cannot rule out All NBA appearances and have a baseline of solid starter.

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