The 6’8″ forward from Columbus, Ohio, was the 94th-ranked player in the 2023 HS RSCI rankings. Swain showcased his talent on the EYBL circuit during his junior and senior years, playing for the All Ohio Red teams. Recruited by Xavier, he had an exceptionally productive freshman season despite a low usage rate (13.2%). This was particularly impressive for someone who would have been a mere 18.94 years old had he declared for the 2024 NBA Draft.

What made Swain’s freshman campaign even more remarkable was his physical transformation. Entering college as a slender 17-year-old at 177 pounds, he managed to bulk up to 205 pounds throughout the season. However, his progress was derailed by a major setback— late in the season, his appendix burst during a game against Georgetown, leading to a severe health scare. As a result, he lost much of the weight he had worked so hard to gain, dropping back into the 170s during his rehab process.

Despite the adversity, Swain’s relentless work ethic and high motor, which had already been evident on the court, carried over to his recovery. He rededicated himself to rebuilding his body, ultimately regaining the lost weight and then some, reaching 217 pounds ahead of his sophomore season. With his enhanced frame, Swain has made substantial strides in his game this season. Knowing this perspective, let’s now explore what makes him such a compelling prospect for the 2025 NBA Draft.

Role Malleable Defender

This season, Xavier’s defense ranks as the 55th-best defense in the country. That’s driven by Dailyn Swain’s exceptional defensive prowess, where they would be equivalent to the 28th-best defense with him on the floor, and equivalent to the 157th defense with him off the court. So how does he do this?

On-Ball Defense

Swain has great size and potentially a very long wingspan, but what makes him shine is the ability to guard down positions with his explosion, moving both laterally and in a straight line with little effort. At the point of attack, his combination of hand-eye coordination, wingspan, and explosion side to side, he can take away a lot of space from opposing ballhandlers to operate with. With the results mainly being positive at the point of attack, Swain does have some deficiencies in staying in front of smaller, bursty guards.

A lot of this has to do with not having the same explosion when he has to simultaneously flip his hips, rotate his trunk, and backtrack to contain the ball handler. While this does raise some concerns about his potential to be a true point-of-attack defender in the NBA, Swain can recover back into plays with his straight-line burst and length which makes him an exceptional lock and trail defender at the next level. He is effective at coming back from behind and targeting blocks and steals even when he is beat on the drive, but the quality of his lock and trail defense has been mitigated due to the composition of Xavier’s defense.

Xavier lacks good rim protection out of its bigs, ranking #337 in BLK% in the country. With Swain’s proclivity to trail, it requires the Xavier bigs to step up on the ballhandler and stay connected to the roller, which leads to some sub-optimal results for Xavier because there is not enough size to impede at the rim (all the bigs on Xavier have a BLK% below 4, Swain has the 3rd highest BLK% on the team). This correlates with the numbers where opposing teams’ rim rate (+3.9%) and rim efficiency (+4.1%) improve when Swain is on the floor, and I believe this aligns mostly with the possessions where Swain is guarding at the point-of-attack.

Swain’s strength gains are impressive, but there is room to grow in that area with his core strength. This would enable him to guard front-court matchups better in isolation by absorbing bumps more effectively. At his current strength, he still does a good job in these matchups by leveraging his coordination and length to end possessions.

Finally, with his screen navigation, he can get caught on screens sometimes but he turns the corner well to get back in the play. With some improvements in technique and becoming better at getting ‘skinny’ in these scenarios, there is real upside as a point-of-attack defender with Swain’s combination of tools.

Off-Ball Defense

Dailyn Swain’s versatility is spotlighted through his off-ball defense. He is a defensive Swiss army knife who plays a multitude of roles that allow Xavier to be one of the better defenses in the country. Whether it’s threatening ball handlers at the nail, backline support as a tagger, or general help defense, Swain is fantastic at leveraging his ground coverage and feel to process rotations.

This shows up in the boxscore too, where he has a 3 BLK% and 3 STL% for his collegiate career. Xavier enables him to play as a roamer, and with that, it does come with some riskier possessions which causes some overhelping, but Swain generally does a good job of leaving himself enough space to rotate back to his initial matchup. This event creation is a product of the havoc he consistently creates, which allows him to end possessions and push the break into high-quality transition opportunities.

A Blur In Space

Transition Offense

Transition is his most frequent offensive play type and it is warranted. Turning defense into offense, Swain can leverage his acceleration tools in the open court and create efficient rim opportunities. The attention he receives in the open court also enables him to open up his playmaking and spray passes to open players. Whether it’s in grab-and-go situations or stealing the ball by being active in passing lanes, the threat of his speed and playmaking are always on display in the open court.

Swain has great feel and generally has the right idea with his passing reads but the deliveries are still a work in progress. For example, he loves moving the ball up even with his passing in transition with full-court outlet passes, but these can often be off-target which largely explains his 21.4% turnover rate in transition. His ability to push in transition drastically improves Xavier’s transition offense:

Half-Court Offense

While his athletic tools are fantastic for the open court, what makes Swain intriguing and a viable slashing threat is how creative he is with his handle. His ability to keep the ball on a string while getting low with his frame and capitalizing on a degree of different pickup points gives him the margins to sustain as a driver. The court shrinks in the half-court, especially with his lack of shooting gravity, but the way he problem-solves with his handle allows him to navigate tighter spaces and consistently get two feet in the paint with his burst.

In spot-up opportunities, defenders tend to sag off of Swain but it increases the space to get downhill where he can often blow by the sagging defender or navigate those tight spaces with his handle. Applying this type of pressure on a defense is important but it’s what Swain does with this pressure. The ball does not stick with Swain, he has this preternatural feel when selecting drive direction, often choosing the direction that will cause the defender to flip his hips in mere seconds. He’s also great at manipulating these directional choices with triple-threat craft-like stutter rips to get his defenders off balance.

His handling and burst parlay well as a pick and roll ballhandler, giving him additional help to get two feet in the paint and problem-solve. This year, Swain has had the highest PNR usage he’s ever had between the Xavier and EYBL samples at a 23.9% frequency. His directional decisions are applied effectively in the same way with screens, manipulating how he rejects or takes the screen, an extremely important element of a pick-and-roll handler with little to no shooting gravity. Defenders will go under the screen, but creating lanes through these directional choices puts a lot of pressure on the defense to adapt quickly.

Dailyn Swain’s handle is functional and creative as a driver, but there are some improvements he can still make. Similar to how it is in transition, Swain’s accuracy as a passer still needs work in the half-court. He makes the right reads but making passes within tight windows and effectively targeting his teammates is still a work in progress. Due to this, he has a high turnover rate on PNRs as well, 22.2%, and I believe this is largely due to not being able to consistently lift into passing deliveries off of a live dribble. This issue bleeds into how he lifts into midrange attempts as well, limiting his windows to create something once he’s got two feet in the paint.

Scoring Question Marks

The biggest question for Swain’s NBA translation lies within his ability to score the ball, but with the growth he’s shown this season, there is a lot to work with.

Even with his size, Swain was often one of the skinniest players on the court dating back to his EYBL days. With the strength gains, the biggest area of improvement for him has been the rim finishing:

One of the factors for this improvement has been Swain’s improved patience and playing off of two feet in the paint.

Before the strength improvements, Swain developed some crucial traits as a finisher by accentuating one of his best athletic traits while mitigating a problematic one. Off of a live dribble and limited space to jump, Swain has his limitations as a leaper and he accommodates that by extending into finishes with his large wingspan. This shows up in his half-court dunk rate, which drops off to 9.3% compared to his 22% in transition. It limits his ability to get easier finishing angles at the rim but he’s developed counters with other athletic traits. Simply put, he’s an acrobat: Swain can extend his hang time off of jumps by manipulating his center of gravity midair which enables him to find funky but effective finishing windows. This lets him consistently finish on the other side of the rim, using the rim to deter shot blockers from getting to the ball. While he has started to implement this into his game, another wrinkle he could add is finishing off the glass with more volume, especially when those finishing windows become minute.

Shooting Analysis

The shooting is potentially the biggest deterrent for Swain’s NBA translation. The volume is low at 0.9 3PA/70 and barely any midrange volume to threaten defense away from the rim. Mechanically, Swain has improved on the fluidity over time but energy transfer is still broken. Off-the-catch, it’s a two-motion jumper – a dip to generate energy and a secondary motion that uses his shooting forearm and elbow to launch the ball. This makes the jumper a slower release. Additionally, his alignment with his shot platform is centered too much which throws off his general elbow alignment. The lower half footwork is good, he lowers his hips and hops into shots to get into rhythm well but squaring his feet needs to become more consistent to improve his alignment.

While the alignment issues are still present in his shooting off-the-dribble, his energy transfer issues are less glaring with the forward momentum he uses and the results are better inside the arc with the reduced distance. Speaking of results, Swain clearly has touch. He’s shot 82.5% from the line on over 126 attempts and shot the ball well on midrange jumpers albeit low volume (40% on 10 midrange jumpers). This is the part of his profile that makes me confident that he will eventually shoot off the catch long-term. His form at the line has no energy breaks, bringing up the ball and shooting in one swift, fluid motion. This gives me hope that the added motion in his 3-point shooting is specifically to accommodate for larger distances, enabling him to shoot with better efficiency as the core and lower half strength improve.

The lack of shooting volume has complicated his rim attempts and that has led to some passivity as a scorer in the half-court. He needs to develop his footwork to make gathering into his floaters/midrange jumpers easier, but growth here would improve his margins as a driver as he would have a real counter to fall back on. On tape, I am encouraged by how quickly he gets into his midrange jumper when he does decide to take them. That counter and the burst to punch gaps will enable him to bust zone coverages successfully.

Off-Ball Processing

Lastly, Dailyn Swain has some issues being passive as a scorer, but an area where that is not the case is when the ball is not in his hands. He’s an aggressive, opportunistic scorer especially off of cuts. He eats up open space well and takes advantage of backdoor cuts well. Swain’s processing shines in these situations, knowing when and how to cut based on how the opposing defense scrambles against the primary action – a strong understanding of rotation.

His off-ball processing also permeates as an offensive rebounder. The motor runs high when crashing the glass, positioning himself effectively to cover ground, high-pointing the ball on rebounds, and still maintaining positioning relative to his current strength and frame. His feel and tools are functionally applied in his career 4.6% offensive rebounding rate.

NBA Translation

Usage/Playstyle Comps: Deni Avdija | Ron Holland | Dyson Daniels

Best NBA Fits (Team Structure + Playstyle): Memphis Grizzlies, Denver Nuggets, OKC Thunder, Indiana Pacers.

Personal Big Board Range (2025 NBA Draft): 7~14

There are concerns with Swain’s general scoring prowess and shooting but I believe he has a safe floor due to the rest of his skillset and touch indicators, especially accounting for how young he is. He will come into the league as one of the higher percentile transition players while being extremely malleable on the defensive end which will earn him playing time. In the half-court, there will be more of an emphasis on his scoring but with his off-ball processing and tendency to keep moving the ball, he can mitigate the lower margins that come with the lack of shooting gravity. This will keep him on the court, and in turn, allow him to experiment as a shooter long-term. Landing on a team with high transition frequency and ample rim protection should give him more of an opportunity to stay on the court. Swain’s touch and age give me more confidence that the shooting can be improved.

As a Swiss army knife forward who can defend in several different roles, he can be a connective forward that improves the dynamic of a team’s transition offense. Any growth as a scorer, whether that is improving certain handling micro-skills or improving as a shooter could lead to more lofty, creator outcomes. For these reasons, I have Swain projected as a lottery pick on my 2025 NBA draft board. I believe his potential for improvement is well-founded, given his margins as an athlete and as a creative handler.

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Michigan State’s Coen Carr is the best athlete among potential 2024 NBA draft picks. There are many good options for that spot, including G-League Ignite’s Ron Holland, Perth’s Alex Sarr or even USC’s Isaiah Collier. But Carr has a versatility of athletic outcomes none of those other guards, forwards or bigs do.

I spelled out those positions as it is very difficult to tell where Carr’s positionality lies.

• In favor of guard: he has developed into a good catch and shoot marksman from deep, can stick with twos on defense
• In favor of forward: he can get to the rim in an instant, can stick with threes and strong enough for some fours
• In favor of big: provides legitimate rim protection despite only 6’6”, as his quickness of getting off the ground is second to none

This athletic flexibility is a strength, and bodes well for his ability to find time in the big leagues, quickly. There is much to be refined, but the upside is extremely worth it.

Before we get started, please just enjoy a Coen Carr dunk for its own sake:

The Pedigree

• Ranked #25 in the ESPN100, #34 by Rivals
• Averaged 8.7 rebounds, 2.0 blocks and 1.3 steals at Peach Jam 2022
• Invited to the 2022 USA Basketball Junior National Team minicamp
• Selected to play in the 2023 Iverson Classic
• Also played football and ran track (long jump, high jump, triple jump) in high school

The Offense

So much of Coen Carr’s offensive upside is tied to a simple basketball skill: the ability to take a first dribble. Different than handle creativity or functionality, Carr struggles mightily with turning a catch into a go. The tragedy in this is Carr is excellent at securing the ball, driving with speed and finishing through traffic: it’s just that single point that is creating an artificial bottleneck.

You can find a clip like this in every game; while he recovers in these two, that is not always the case, massively disrupting any chance at fluidity. If you can stomach this part of his game, and especially if you assume this can be drilled out, you’ll love the rest.

The reason for this glaring flaw is obvious: Carr is incredibly fast, and has had little on-ball reps to develop such a skill, however basic. This issue has not stopped Carr from developing his game elsewhere, and in some instances, as quickly as his first step. He has become a legitimate catch and shoot threat from deep, a great foul-drawer when downhill and shown sparks using his drives to create kick-outs. If he can simply slow down and take care with that very first step, the benefits are sky-high.

But let’s start with my most controversial take: his shooting is not nearly as bad as his reputation, and in fact might end up very good. While the volume remains low, added strength and confidence between EYBL and high school seasons led to better results. By turning with more purpose into his shot, Carr leverages his strength and ensures a dedicated follow-through.

Any mechanical issues can be spotted in EYBL tape where his free throw shooting was abysmal. His feet are too close together, leading to a flared out release which was consistently accurate from distance but poorly aimed left to right.

But these have been better in more recent tape, shooting through his shoulder, flicking the ball less and with much better results. Carr’s free throw percentage went from an abysmal 59% through the Sunshine Classic during which he turned 18 to an adequate 72% since then (according to Cerebro).

Before: both feet facing forwards, finishes with shoulders flat, guide hand as high as follow-through

After: right foot at an angle, finishes through shooting shoulder, guide hand below follow-through

Beyond that, his touch in the midrange appears sound, too, once again with the caveat of limited volume:

Most importantly, the form looks sound. With his strength, dedicated footwork and clean follow-through, I can’t see why Carr can’t take multiple attempts from deep per game and in doing so earn some shooting gravity. If that is the case then…

…look out for Carr as a driver. The pick-up issue is tough to watch on film, but betrays some real underlying driving potential should it be fixed. His handle beyond that first step is adequate, with both hands, capable of simple moves but at high speeds.

Look at the possessions where Carr takes his time and makes sure the pick up and initial dribble are clean, before accelerating towards the rim at blistering speeds. Even with a soft closeout, Carr was able to beat Maryland commit Jaime Kaiser off the dribble for the tough finish.

Once he has you on his back, he’s gone:

Carr welcomes physicality, limited by his inconsistent usage. But he is going to get to his spot before you with his absurd burst, often given the benefit of the doubt by officials who cannot even tell how he got there so fast. The drives are not often, as more of an opportunistic usage-taker than demanding creator reps.

But this gets us to our next point: Carr’s game should scale down tremendously to a team’s scheme even while he builds up skill. If left open, Carr could punish the opponent by cashing a catch and shoot/pick and pop look or by getting to the bucket in an instant on a one-dribble drive or alley oop (his teammates so far have been loathe to take advantage of the latter). Not to spoil the defensive side, but that lower offensive usage (at high efficiency) also buys him the energy for a high usage defensive role.

With the consistent caveat regarding the pick up point, Carr has shown the ability to improvise in the open or half court in his limited on-ball reps. He could be special in transition, utilizing his nose for the ball, 100th percentile burst and vertical, and willingness to attack the basket, hard.

But even in the half court he has shown some creativity moving the ball. He is unlikely to be even a secondary creator, but I’m not taking the outcome off the table considering he is just recently growing into his offensive game. His junior year, for instance, he was used primarily as a low-usage energy big. He has developed passing instincts in spite of that, and most notably by using his speed first. Mostly simple, but something to work off of.

Finally, his scrappiness comes up with loose change via putbacks, as well. To the rim in an instant and constantly perusing for the ball, Carr will put many on posters after securing an offensive board.

Or drawing fouls as a handful for the defense. These are plays made out of willingness and effort, matched well with his physical tools.

While many focus on the inconsistent, limited shooting results and unpolished handle, I see developing technique into sky-high potential. Carr is not just an athlete, but a problem-solver as well.

The Defense

Now things get really fun. If you thought his athleticism popped on offense, the defensive clips shine even more. Coen Carr projects as an NBA-level rim protector – a secondary or tertiary one, but providing value at the defensive rim nonetheless. That may sound shocking for a 6’6” wing, but his hops and more specifically, the quickness of his hops allow for Carr to deter shots in multiple ways and at a very high level.

Ideally, Carr would be in a scheme that allows for him to roam. He is alert flipping his hips to make back line rotations, and boy is it a joy to watch.

The technique is closer to a B than an A, all instinctual but making plays regardless. I imagine time with Michigan State will focus on the more traditional skills such as keeping body square when contesting or keeping arms vertical. But Carr is such an athlete it hasn’t mattered, always a threat to make a play at the rim on either end.

Carr has even been able to slide into a primary rim protector role in select lineups, in the middle of a zone or defending transition opportunities, and with a high rate of deterrence. Opponents genuinely appear scared of Carr when they approach him in the paint, a rare acknowledgment for a non-big at the high school level: everyone knows to stay away from this guy.

Enabling Carr to play a roamer role is his ability to accelerate, closing out in an instant and only needing to be within several feet to contest with his vertical.

He is a playmaker away from the basket, as well. While likely lacking the technical prowess to be a true shutdown type, Carr has the dual traits of being difficult to move off his spot and quick enough to stick with you. Those two, in tandem, go a long way towards being a reputable perimeter defender, and Carr has it in spades.

He is not always perfect with rotations, making bad reads here and there, but more than makes up for it with his overall level of effort and focus through a possession. Many run and jump athletes overly rely on those traits to compensate for lack of attentiveness; not Carr.

The Outlook

The beauty of Coen Carr as a prospect is there is a long list of ways he could take off, both literally and figuratively. His versatility of athleticism and exhibited skill development are a potent combination that suggests very little is off the table.

You can almost run through the scenarios by testing out combinations for improvement.

1. Coen Carr’s coordination and touch improvement suggest he could become a very good pull-up shooter

According to Synergy, Coen Carr has hardly taken any pull-up threes. So why am putting this outcome on the table? Simply put, Carr might be that level of athlete. I have no issues with any stage of his pull-up, especially considering his nearly picture-perfect finish. He gets a ton of verticality and is never knocked off his axis. His better alignment to the hoop over time has permitted better touch, as has his improved decisiveness. We cannot say for sure Carr won’t continue on this trajectory, with athleticism buying time for the skill to come along after.

2. Coen Carr’s coordination, driving speed and flashes of creativity suggest he could become a secondary creator

This is less likely, as Carr would likely have averaged more assists in his career up to this point to be an NBA-level creator of any type. But playmaking happens in the margins you create with gravity, and Carr’s adaptability as a play finisher means wide margins. He appears particularly adept passing into space, displaying some creativity in passing teammates open. If he keeps making the easy look easy, the hard starts to look easier, too. The main concern, once again, is him slowing down his initial step; if he does so this season, this outcome becomes considerably more likely.

3. Coen Carr’s mobility, physicality and coordination suggest he could be a major perimeter event creator

I am not sure this is a stretch goal as much as likely outcome. Carr’s singular “only good” athletic trait is his lateral change of direction, making him unlikely to guard the majority of NBA point guards. But his strength, stop-start speed and nose for the ball make him a force to be reckoned with on the perimeter. Honing in on that defensive playmaking instinct is the key, as while the game slows down for him he will have all the more opportunity to ignite his athletic tools.

4. Coen Carr’s strength, coordination and touch improvement suggest he could be a high-level screener for position

We have already seen some of this, particularly in his EYBL usage. But with catch and shoot advancements, Carr has become a viable pick and pop threat as well. His fluidity of movement makes for a good ghost-screener, and ability to drop his hips speaks well for roll potential. The technique needs improvement – it usually does even for bigs of his age – but Carr’s strength, ability to flip hips and general nose for physicality make this outcome at least somewhat likely.

5. Coen Carr’s shot technique improvement, coordination and touch improvement suggest he could be a high volume floor spacer

Carr is just getting used to being a spacing threat, and there can be a lag in recognizing one’s own improvement. He still holds the ball first looking to move it, but has shown flashes of not just catch and shoot but turn and shoot, catching off of movement. His ability to reset his balance in an instant makes for a constantly set shooter. Hopefully Michigan State’s coaching can recognize this.

And so forth. When you roll up these outcomes further you get phrases like “Coen Carr could be an elite two-way threat” or “Coen Carr could be the most dominant transition player in the league,” all of which are not only fun to consider but indicative of the level of talent we have on our hands that simply needs to continue being polished. I do not see how there are 30 better candidates for contributing at a high level in the NBA, and there might not be 15, either.

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A childhood refugee from South Sudan, Khaman Maluach was late to basketball at age 13, joining the NBA Academy Africa before playing in the professional Basketball Africa League at age 15. Maluach has shown enormous strides year to year from that point, initially utterly lost on the court. With his legs now beneath him, Maluach has the chance to continue to develop not just big man technique but some midrange and perimeter skill as well – particularly the shot. If this trajectory can continue as he kicks off his NBA career, the ceiling is lofty for the 7’2” Maluach.

The Offense

Let’s get one item out of the way: Khaman Maluach will shoot.

First, let us remember the lesson from Owen Phillips’ recent newsletter: the act of shooting is more important than shooting well. There is a much stronger correlation between three-point volume and how much you impact spacing than just your raw three-point percentage. It is natural instinct, as a defender, to run at whoever is shooting regardless of the identity. It is a tough habit to break and that is why volume rules supreme.

You may wonder how this applies to Khaman Maluach, who has taken seven threes in 21 games with Duke. But it doesn’t take too much time watching his pre-Duke tape to see it. Maluach shot four threes per 36 minutes in his team in the Basketball Africa League, where he was a pro from ages 15 to 17.

Even from that young age, Maluach was extremely willing for a big. That four threes per 36 number is also in the context of playing mostly in the interior. When he got even somewhat decent looks, he let it fly.

The ball misses more than it makes in that video, but his percentages in the BAL were good for age and position, 32% on 57 attempts. Focus as well on the fluidity, where Maluach is able to keep his balance even when shooting off of some movement. The release is quick and high with a good follow-through. Draft analysts talk about energy transfer and the smoothness from set up to release jumps off the screen.

The key to whether his shot makes or misses is his right foot. The one inconsistency in his form, when he turns it inward too much he loses his distance accuracy. Every time the foot faces relatively direct to the basket, the form is sweet. It is unfortunate how little interest Duke has in developing this part of his game, but the instincts are there. Convincingly.

Khaman Maluach’s bread and butter, however, will be his rim finishing. Maluach is flat-out one of the best lob threats the NCAA has seen. He is 23 for 24 as the roll man finisher at the basket, with his 95% mark surpassing that of all recent big men prospects: https://x.com/DraftPow/status/1881734090669408281.

Four major components make Maluach possibly the best recent roll man prospect. First, his standing reach is 9’8”. That is an inch more than Wemby. No more need to contextualize that. Second, his screening is excellent. Maluach has already mastered the art of the moving screen which doesn’t get called. This opens up all the space needed.

Third, Maluach has excellent touch near the basket, able to force the ball in even when he can’t finish the lob. He is 21 for 27 (78%) on layups! Compare that again to our big man comparables: Chet was 71%, Mobley 66%, Lively only 52%. Khaman is always two inches away from the rim when he reaches up and can softly guide the ball in from there.

Last, Maluach is excellent at waiting until the last moment to leap. That is perhaps the most essential rim running trait of all. Much like his shooting technique, his footwork is precise and light, shuffling just as needed before taking off. He is a highly accurate leaper, more important than any max vertical when you are already that tall (though his max vertical is not bad, either).

These four factors together made Maluach one of the best rim threats in the entire BAL by age 16. A true lob threat savant.

These factors also make Maluach a consistent threat on the offensive glass. He is in the 88th percentile for putback frequency led by a 16% offensive rebound rate, finishing those at a good 69% efficiency. He gets fouled on nearly a third of his putback possessions as well. Even in the absence of strength to get positioning, as one of the skinniest players in the BAL until age 17, Maluach could reach over opponents in a timely fashion.

Maluach’s true upside talks happen when we get into the rest of his offensive game. If you made it this far, I can reward you with an unholy player comparison for Khaman Maluach: Kristaps Porzingis (mostly the Celtics version). We covered the shooting, as I think Porzingis’ career 36% from three is not out of the question for Maluach if things click. Maluach has shown some promise working out of the post as well, even though Duke has removed these reps entirely.

In the BAL, Maluach was more free to explore the studio space, even if post ups were far from a staple. He seemed to spontaneously add new things when he did get these reps, including a Dirk fade and some over-the-shoulder reads. Perhaps the most promising clip below is his mid-post arm sweep foul draw, a ploy far ahead of his 16 years of age, or for someone in their third year of playing the sport.

With his height, touch and shooting form, there is little reason to think Maluach can’t score out of the post. But where we REALLY get to his upside is even beyond. Yes, we’re about to hype up the handle and passing of a big with a 0.4 assist to turnover ratio.

Compared to his pre-NCAA tape, Maluach is under highly restrictive circumstances at Duke. While not a point center or anything close to it, Maluach is no stranger to bringing the ball up an open court or even dribbling between his legs on the perimeter. Most encouragingly, he showed a couple of fake dribble handoffs which led to one or two dribble drives and thunderous rim finishes.

Here comes into play the benefits of compounding skills. Maluach’s size makes the distance to the rim shorter. Maluach’s shot means you have to provide some space to drive. Maluach’s screening means you have to honor the screen receiver as well. Even if it is just a single dribble, Maluach can cram it driving from the perimeter.

The below clips are not perfect, but again are in the context of a seven-foot-two player new to the sport, coming from soccer, with very limited ballhandling experience. At age 18, this will only look better and better, but the reps need to come somehow, even if infrequent.

The biggest question mark with Maluach’s offensive game is the passing but, yes, I am relatively optimistic there too. The instincts are not the issue – Maluach has shown time and again he understands where the leverage point in the defense is. The issue is the timing and strength, technique to deliver a pass with force. Those factors cannot be entirely written off as due to age, but Maluach’s improving pattern recognition (more on that later) means he is not bound to the ATO basement.

Maluach’s offensive upside is tremendous due to potentially compounding skills at his size; however, even if one or multiple do not pan out, he is highly likely to be one of the best roll threats in the league. That’s the floor.

The Defense

Let us start with the obvious: Khaman Maluach is a very large person who also moves very well on their feet. Assuming even a fairly low baseline of instincts and technical proficiency, that has value. And Maluach’s instincts and technique have been improving…rapidly.

There is enough evidence in the tape to suggest Maluach would be able to snuff out drives by quicker bigs or slower wings, and still get decent contests against guards. While I would not call him fully switchable, he provides enough needed for the defense to re-set and relieve him.

Maluach started his BAL career at age 15, his third year playing basketball. It would be shocking if he, up against veterans as much as twenty years older, stood out as far as positioning or defensive instincts. Maluach’s earliest instincts remind me of someone playing a video game without knowing the controls, pressing random buttons. He constantly tried to draw charges seconds too early, or did not understand when to contest as the offensive player neared the hoop.

Maluach showed some high-level instincts regardless. While the technique was typically lacking, Maluach still made help rotations at timely occasions. When you’re his size, it does not take perfect timing, but the degree of anticipation here and there suggests some latent talent. His 7.5% block rate at age 15 is a testament to some awareness, far ahead of the curve for a recent player in a professional league. While the BAL is among the worst pro leagues for competition level (if not the single worst), the gap in cognitive development for a 15-year-old compared to someone at their athletic peak forces these rotations to be timely to ensnare a block.

Maluach’s block rate rose to 8.1% at age 16 and stayed high at 7.9% at age 17 in the BAL, but has fallen down to 6% at Duke. In spite of this seeming regression, I am highly encouraged by the sharp improvement in technique from his earlier years. The help defense was already useful, but primary rim protection fully lacking pre-Duke. Maluach’s underdeveloped pattern recognition, very recent to the sport, held him back from knowing when to flip his hips or anticipate when the shot was going up. While not “pressing random buttons” like before, opponents knew they could feast inside due to his lack of consistent contests. As a sign of how physically talented Maluach is regardless of these bad tendencies, he still won defensive MVP at the Basketball Without Borders Global camp in early 2024.

Even throughout the season, it is evident Maluach has refined his technique and begun to better anticipate offensive actions. He has always been one of the most vocal players on the defensive side of the court, now clearly locked in with his teammates. Duke’s defense has a ridiculous 86.7 defensive rating when Khaman is on the court, compared to a still elite 90.1 when off. However, their opponents’ rim shooting goes down a sharp 12 percentage points from 57% to 45% when Maluach is on the court, and on lower volume, too (numbers versus top 100 teams only). The supporting cast is elite, but the numbers are what they’re supposed to be for a primary rim-protecting prospect.

Just check out the video above, a compilation of Maluach’s high and lowlights over the past four seasons, where the improvement is obvious. His sense of timing has become superb, and technique has improved substantially. He is still out of place here and there, but the frequency has been dramatically limited.

The last part of the equation relates to both ends of the court: physical strength. Maluach has added a ton of weight from being perhaps the skinniest player in the BAL at age 15, but still stands to gain from continued development. He notably held his ground against Kentucky’s 262-pound Amari Williams on repeated post attempts.

Maluach’s defensive rebounding has been very low for a 7’2” player with Duke, with only a 19% defensive rebounding rate after posting a 27% figure his final season in the BAL. His hesitancy in going out and getting it grows, but has been increasing in confidence there, too. When he does spring, he is able to high point the ball in an instant, showing the talent is there (I wrote about the importance of this trait here).

The lower figure does cast some doubt on his ability to become a dominant rebounder, but given the physical tools and developing instincts, I do not see why could not, either. His rebounding rate has already been improving, in fact, at 22% in conference play (#4 for high major freshmen).

The Player

With his floor spacing potential, rim finishing superiority, and potential ball skill competency, Maluach’s ceiling as an offensive player is quite high. Due to the variety of ways he can improve, the floor is high, too. If Kristaps Porzingis is the reasonable upside comparison on offense, that puts Khaman as a +2-3 points per 100 offensive player in his peak, in the range of 25th to 50th best offensive player in the league. If the shot really hits and he is able to string together a couple dribbles consistently, we smash through that ceiling.

On defense, Maluach will likely take up primary rim protector duties, perhaps in bench units to begin his career, rather than as a helpside four. He is mobile enough, however, to play next to another big simultaneously (once again, think Porzingis next to Horford). This once again speaks to Maluach’s favorable combination of high ceiling and floor. If the instincts continue to improve at this pace, he will become a highly effective drop defender, even by NBA standards. He might be able to do that while not being taken advantage on switches, either. I don’t think a +1.5-2.0 points per 100 contribution on defense is out of the question, in the range of tenth to thirtieth best defender in the league.

Adding it all up, Maluach could range from a +2 to +6 points per 100 added in his prime. In simpler terms, I cannot rule out All NBA appearances and have a baseline of solid starter.

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At 6’1”, Tamin Lipsey has an uphill battle to be an effective pro at the NBA level. However, armed with the fastest hands and quickest feet among draft-eligible prospects, that doesn’t mean he isn’t special. A floor general on both offense and defense, Lipsey is one of the most productive players in college basketball as a second-year player.

Lipsey will get steals at any level he plays at, and a lot of them. It’s where his offensive game lands that determines his ceiling. With tools on offense as well – elite quickness, creative passing, effective shooting, bruising physicality – Lipsey has the makings of an NBA rotation player, in spite of his height.

The Pedigree

• Big 12 All-Freshman Team
• Big 12 Commissioner’s Honor Roll
• Academic All-Big 12 Rookie Team
• Led Iowa State with 146 assists and 73 steals as a freshman
• Named Iowa Mr. Basketball
• Won a gold medal with USA Basketball at the 2019 FIBA Americas U16 championship

The Offense

Lipsey is an elite floor general on offense, popping in wherever his team needs him. Not every conductor needs to be ball dominant, as Lipsey makes quick reads to kick off Iowa State’s movement-heavy offense, then gets the ball back prepared to find a scorer. He makes these reads with accuracy and timeliness but most of all, speed.

Lipsey is a good passing student, with a variety of no-looks, live dribble feeds and well-placed lobs in his arsenal. This combines well with his speed, as it is difficult to contain him in a predictable way. If he’s slinging hit ahead passes or hitting cutters amid his dribble, how does one also stop his dribble?

Despite all of his touches, Lipsey hardly gets a chance to create from nothing, especially as Iowa State is one of the most adamantly anti-isolation teams in the country. But he fits in this quasi-connector, quasi-traditional PG role in a way that suggests he could be effective in either.

The swing skills are related to the shooting. Lipsey’s numbers are not good here but far from a lost cause. In particular, the pull-up midrange shooting has been valuable to Iowa State, hitting 43% of his midrange attempts with only 13% assisted.

He has shot 70% from the line and 33% from three in his two seasons so far, though with three point percentage rising from 30% on miniscule volume as a freshman to 41% on okay volume as a sophomore.

Lipsey has been particularly effective spotting up, where he is shooting 43% from three on 2.4 attempts per game. Not game-changing, but building blocks to work off of.

Finally, Tamin Lipsey is a blur attacking the rim. He attacks mostly as a bail-out option for his teammates, as typically able to find a better shot with his passing and activity. But when he does attack, he is a lightning bolt as he throws his body into rim protectors exploding off of one foot with ultra-quick strides. At 6’1” Lipsey will get almost no dunks, but has finished 65% of his rim attempts, the majority of which were self-created.

Lipsey is surprisingly physical, popping in for offensive rebounds (again, speed x activity) where he snags the second most offensive boards for someone his height or shorter in all of college hoops.

He uses this physicality to draw fouls, too, with a strong 0.45 free throw rate (FTAs/FGAs). He seems to relish the contact, welcoming it from even much bigger players.

Lipsey is an ideal guard connector who can step into primary duties. While he is unlikely to be a major scorer at the NBA level, he has access to enough tools to keep advantages going, regardless of his limitations. If the shot continues to improve, as we’ve seen with both his pull-up and spot up, Lipsey could be a more than a merely effective offensive player, but rather one capable of greasing the wheels of (and occasionally steering) a high-level offense.

The Defense

Now for the really fun part. Tamin Lipsey might have the best combo of quick hands and quick feet I’ve ever seen (rivals being Briante Weber, Jose Alvarado). That is not an exaggeration. Lipsey has been claiming the opponent’s ball as his own on 6.5% of opponent’s offensive possessions. He is the definition of a ballhawk.

There are many ways to get a steal, and Lipsey does all of them. He pokes the ball away; strips them on digs and wraparound swipes; he intercepts ball in the open court; he pulls the chair out from under his opponent; he, somehow, seems to coax the ball out of his opponent simply with his foot speed. I am not exaggerating when I say there were three steals on tape legitimately not visible when going frame by frame. That’s how fast Lipsey is at getting steals, and why he has the second highest steal rate since 2008, only barely behind Matisse Thybulle (and while two years younger).

Beyond the steals, Lipsey has everything you’d want in a small guard defender: size to handle bumps, speed and awareness to dodge screens, the anticipation to make the right rotation. Iowa State plays a fairly complex defensive scheme, a matchup zone where all players have to re-adjust to where your teammates are constantly. Lipsey is key in that as well, the most capable of balancing out any schematic disorganization. He is vocal telling his teammates where to be, too.

He also contributes on the boards, another Alvarado-esque trait. Lipsey has the 12th highest rebounding rate of anyone 6’1” or shorter since 2008. The speed, the awareness, the specificity of movement all come into play. Lipsey is not just capable of getting anywhere, but also finding a creative path to do so.

His physicality and surprising strength allows him to hold his ground against much bigger players, and also why he’s so comfortable drawing charges.

Lipsey is a menacing point of attack defender, only lacking a long wingspan to better contest or block passing lanes. The rest is all you could ask for, and why he is setting steal rate records. You are not beating Lipsey with speed, nor is your path safe if he is nearby.

The Outlook

I have no doubt that Tamin Lipsey is an NBA-level point of attack defender. It’s an uphill battle to be a positive defender as a small guard, but Lipsey has the exact tools needed, and then some. He is dangerous to drive near and difficult to avoid. He will end a lot of the opponent’s offensive possessions while also kicking off his own team’s offense.

Given the elite defense, the bar for Lipsey to be an effective offensive player is lower. But we have also seen him utilize tools like passing, speed and some self-creation ability to keep defenses honest. Despite my hand-wringing and his limitations, Lipsey has been one of the best offensive players in the NCAA. Having a physically gifted player who can make the right read, slash some and shoot some is likely to have some offensive value. Get him next to good play finishers (like we’ve seen at Iowa State) and Lipsey supports a very good offense.

Given his outlier speed and quickness, even among the NBA’s elite, Lipsey can combine his athletic traits with a high level of feel in many, interesting ways. He will give you transition offense as he makes every little task more difficult for an opposing offense. He will help from distance without gambling. If he continues to develop his pull-up, as he should given his age, he could become a strong pick and roll conductor, as well.

Lipsey has more upside than your typical guard prospect, with day one bankable skills. Don’t let him go unnoticed.

The post Tamin Lipsey appeared first on Swish Theory.

Duke’s freshman, the top recruit in the nation playing above his age at just recently turned 18, has taken on mega offensive usage for the Blue Devils. While his efficiency has lagged given this significant change in role, the overall team impact is still there (Flagg is top ten in the country in RAPM), largely driven by his defense.

Flagg is one of the most heralded prospects in recent memory, named the Gatorade National Player of the Year, Naismith Player of the Year, and McDonald’s All-American as a senior in 2023-24, averaging 16.5 points, 7.5 rebounds, 3.8 assists and 2.7 blocks per game to lead Montverde to a 33-0 record and a national championship title. Cooper was also a 2022 Men’s U17 National Team member at age 15, which won gold at the 2022 FIBA U17 Basketball World Cup, averaging 9.3 points and a team-leading 10.0 rebounds and 2.9 blocks per game. So far into the 2023-24 season, Flagg is 8th among high major freshmen in Box Plus-Minus since 2008, just below Evan Mobley and above James Harden.

The Offense

Cooper Flagg’s biggest strengths as an offensive player are rarely on display at Duke, for schematic purposes. Duke has thrown Flagg into the fire as a pick-and-roll operator, which has been a developmental positive in some ways while drastically reducing his offensive efficiency.

Flagg, at his best, is attacking the rim. Typical Flagg fashion is going 110% speed at the front of the cup when he decides to go, but that decision is often complicated by a role that changes possession to possession.

Flagg has run 6.2 pick-and-roll plays per game that end in a shot from him or his teammate, a foul drawn, or a turnover committed. Pick and rolls are his most common play type as a play finisher, his 6th most common play type as a junior at Montverde, and during his play with Maine United 16U. It is difficult to overstate how significant of a shift this has been.

Cooper Flagg’s usage is an anomaly compared to his past: 42% of his plays have come from playtypes where he has been his least efficient (pick and rolls as ballhandler, coming off of screens, handoffs, and isos), while his most efficient playtypes (cuts, pick and rolls as roll man, and putbacks) make up a mere 15%. Even his fourth most efficient play type, post-ups, are at a career low percentage of possessions.

Synergy data

Needless to say, Flagg needs to attack the rim more, and it’s hardly his fault.

Stripped down to the basics, Flagg is very good at picking the ball up and getting it to the rim.

When he can roam off-ball, he is more prone to picking up the scraps with his elite ground coverage and anticipation:

But Flagg is figuring out how to manufacture rim attempts while on the ball as well.

Here he has the slower-footed Johni Broome guarding him on the perimeter. Coop has advanced his setup craft into drives dramatically over the years. Now, nearly every lead into a drive is initiated with a subtle (or not-so-subtle) rip or pump fake. These create the smallest of gaps needed to hit the accelerator, where his zero to sixty speed shines.

These traits blend well with post-up work, too. Flagg’s ideal usage would likely involve plenty of high post-ups where he can muscle against weaker opponents:

These should be used when opponents realize they can’t stick true bigs on Flagg with his speed.

Flagg’s outside shot is firmly in the “okay” category, where there are flashes of very good but signs of poor touch as well. But he has become especially more adept at turning deep pull-ups into short pull-ups or leaning layups:

Overall, the proclivity towards deep pull-ups has been the biggest flaw in Flagg’s game, a flaw present even in his Maine United 15U tape. But he has shown a dedication to drive craft, handle progression, and willingness to initiate physicality that all speak to the numerous routes he has to provide offensive value.

While he’s shooting only 30% on pull-up twos at Duke, the process continues to improve, visibly on tape.

Checking out the full shooting profile for Flagg reveals the weak points. Below one can find Flagg’s shooting attempts and percentages for different kinds of looks using data from available Maine United, Montverde, and Duke games.

Flagg’s outside shooting profile looks decent if not outright good for a forward. It’s the pull-up twos that are the major issue, especially given the high volume of attempts. While the free throw percentage likes his overall shooting form, the relatively poor layup efficiency points to weaker touch near the hoop. But it is mostly an issue of decision-making, as Flagg could be found taking the like:

These shots can be very difficult to get out of one’s system. The proclivity for tough pull-ups goes against the grain compared to the rest of the game for the high-motor, physicality-inviting Flagg, encouraging that maybe he will grow out of it with more physical development.

I am encouraged by continually simplifying mechanics, however, and his pull-up threes have always been a solid option when the offense stagnates otherwise or there is a defensive breakdown allowing him to walk into it.

The weak deep midrange threat, however, has made the pick and roll conduction more difficult.

Flagg’s assist rate of 24% is elite for a forward, but just “pretty good” for a college player of Flagg’s usage in general. His passing reads are strong, if not complex, and Flagg has shown a little bit of manipulation here and there.

Back to his 15-year-old AAU days, Flagg could be found experimenting as a passer:

He got in trouble being over-ambitious here and there, more frequently than high-value assists.

Accuracy was also an occasional issue as well. However, by the end of his junior Montverde season, Flagg had figured out passing manipulation, displaying some high-level misdirection.

He started using his drive threat more to set up teammates, a trait that would carry over to Duke. Flagg has become more proactive going through his actions.

He figured out how to sequence, as well, as shown in the clips below:

https://twitter.com/DraftPow/status/1876360567616589976

At Duke, he has provided more table-setting passing, a function of his running ample pick and roll, initiating from the perimeter early in possessions. Every time Flagg has hit Duke’s best roller in Khaman Maluach has resulted in a bucket or a drawn foul.

Flagg’s greatest swing skill is his handle, though his craft improvement as a driver has compensated immensely. He loves going behind the back into a middie or spinning heading through the lane, both reliable for creating shots. As mentioned above, his habits appear to be improving as far as seeking out closer distances for finishes, but that is only enabled by him figuring out how to work within his athleticism.

Although Flagg is an elite run and jump athlete, with great acceleration and upper body flexibility, his one failing is it takes him a beat when changing directions on a 180-degree plane, and he can have a heavier stride than is capable of being nimble through traffic. That lack of highly specific dance moves holds back his creator upside, as he instead will have to attack larger gaps. As we have seen in many larger creators, however, such as Tatum or Giannis, having big, heavy strides can still create seams when combined with a high degree of coordination. Flagg has that.

Cooper Flagg is best when roaming on offense (much like defense, which we will get to shortly), attacking the rim hard in transition, picking up putbacks, or just generally finding the ball in space. But he has shown advanced craft for a player of his size in developing as a driver and with shooting upside as indicated by a very strong free throw percentage. Given his athletic tools and measure of premium, dribble-pass-shoot skills at 6’9”, Flagg’s upside is a top 20 offensive player in the league.

The Defense

Here is where Flagg truly shines, though his high offensive usage at Duke is likely holding back his defensive playmaking as well.

Flagg is a monster defensively for many reasons, with three standing out: his hand-eye coordination, his leaping ability, and his ground coverage. And his motor and sense of positioning. And his ability to make plays without fouling. Okay, that was more than three.

Let’s start with the hand-eye coordination.

https://twitter.com/DraftPow/status/1820114289643954457

Yes, Flagg’s ability to meet the ball with his hand is among the best historically. You can tell this through the accuracy with which he strips or blocks the ball, and in an instant. In particular, in the above, I am taken by the “dead arm” blocks, where a player leaps so accurately they don’t have to readjust their arm position when falling down for the block. This is a quality displayed by many of the best shot-blocking players of all time.

At 6’9”, Flagg is unlikely to reach that echelon, but his help-side rim protection is extremely valuable. Duke holds opponents to 48% rim shooting with him on the court compared to 55% when Flagg is off.

While Flagg appears to conserve energy at times (he did just recently 18 years old while second in the ACC in usage), he has still put up the 8th-best combined stock rate in his conference. When he goes for the ball, he generally gets it, even against the NCAA’s best players.

Flagg’s most notable performance likely came against Spain in FIBA U-17 play when he was just 15 years old. In a slimmed-down offensive role next to some of the US’s top talents, Flagg put up 10 points, 17 rebounds, 8 steals and 4 blocks. With the ball hardly in his hands on the perimeter, Flagg was a wrecking ball all over the court.

https://twitter.com/DraftPow/status/1877069539705303502

This is why it is difficult to imagine any negative outcome for Flagg: even if the primary stuff doesn’t work out – and perhaps especially – he has his strengths to “fall back on.”

Flagg’s leaping ability combines marvelously with his hand-eye. Look how instantaneously he gets off the ground:

And how high he can climb at his maximum:

This vertical, combined with motor, is why Flagg is one of the ACC’s best rebounders on the defensive end. He hauls 22% of opponent attempts, but also displays superstar traits in how he is able to high point the ball:

There are few outcomes where Flagg isn’t a positive rebounder or shot blocker for position and is most likely going to be one of the best wings in the league at both.

He has other extremely positive athletic traits, too, namely his acceleration. Combined with his anticipation and aforementioned hand-eye, Flagg will be a steal maven as well. Just check out these steals on nearly back-to-back possessions.

Notice as well how easily these lead to fast breaks. Flagg’s transition frequency at Duke of 14% is half of his usage compared to Montverde or Maine United. Those are easy points being given up on schematically.

Flagg is likely to be a very good on-ball defender, perhaps an elite one depending on where his strength ends up. He is most threatening one-on-one for his steals potential, as his man has to be extra cautious when attacking. Opponents have only made 2 buckets on 11 attempted iso possessions against Flagg, and only 22% on all attempts before Duke.

With his shot blocking, thievery, and on-ball defense likely to translate at 6’9”, it would be surprising if Flagg never made an All-Defense team. That puts him squarely in the top 10 for NBA defenders.

The Player

Cooper Flagg is a menace and is likely to show even more in the tank in the NBA than he did at Duke. With a reversion back to pre-Duke usage, his efficiency will improve, though will continue to build on the on-ball equity he has displayed to this point. Flagg cares deeply about basketball craft, as shown by his handle, driving, and passing progression over the years. At just recently turned 18, Flagg will continue to develop physically, leading to even more easy buckets and the ability to set up teammates while thriving defensively. The sport will keep clicking, the game will slow down and Flagg will show the same dominance he did at a much younger age at every stop. When he’s in his prime, there is an easy case to be made for Flagg ending up a consistent top 5 player.

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The short scouting report pitch for Mutts is a connector / finisher hybrid who can hold his own on defense. A scheme-solving PF who processes the floor with the best of them.

But the narrative of how he’s gotten here is just as interesting. A fifth-year player who sat out a year due to transfer, Mutts was one of the oldest players in college basketball as turned 24 in January. But if you’re going to use all your eligibility, there better be something to show for it. Mutts perhaps has as much to show for his development within the NCAA as any upperclassman, encouraging that he will adapt to whatever new challenge at the next level.

Starting his career at High Point in the Big South Conference, Mutts was more of an energy wing. He won by slashing to the basket with his motor, length and handle, getting from point A to B in an instant. He sat out a year to then transfer to Delaware in the CAA, then learning how to play the high/low game, more of a post-up flex player they trusted to give over 20% usage.

The flashes of passing vision were there, and obvious:

The execution was improving, as slowing the game down was one of the areas for improvement before. He added almost a full extra steal per 100 possessions while fouling once less.

His time at Virginia Tech, however, is when it all started to click.

First, the passing.

Mutts is a good connective passer first for Virginia Tech, making sure the action gets set up and the shooters their touches. However, he also has a chaotic creativity that few do, adapting as the actions break down. In particular he is adept at finding cutters in rhythm. Mutts is always in sync with what his teammates are trying to do and gets them the ball where they can use it.

His assists per 100 ballooned all the way to 7.7 this past year, at a 1.6x ratio to his turnovers. Most notably, he figured out how to use his dribble to create angles, with his ability to get to the rim quickly meaning bigs have to help last second as Justyn is dumping the ball off to his teammate.

The true swing skill on offense is his distance shooting, where results have been mixed. He has never taken more than 50 threes in a season, but is an adequate 30% from distance. His range seems to be well within midrange, though, going 137-333 for a respectable 41% over his NCAA career. His free throw percentage is low/mid-60s, not great but not broken. A corner three is not out of the question, but will need to catch up from lack of reps so far in his basketball career.

Being able to hit in midrange is enough to keep his passing options open, however, and I don’t see anything unworkable in the mechanics. His best weapon is his over the shoulder mini-hook, particularly after spinning into opponents to create space and give himself a rhythm. When he’s decisive getting into it, the routine maximizes his passing threat, rim threat and ambidexterity. He spent a lot of time finding the gaps in the opponent’s defense at Virginia Tech, cutting into an open dunker spot or flashing to mid-post after screens.

The defensive end is where Mutts is the most of a tweener. He could be seen used all over as Virginia Tech’s best, biggest athlete, for example guarding Paolo Banchero one minute and AJ Griffin the next in their ACC title win. The Hokies used him mainly on post ups to start the 2022-23 season but eventually placed more on wings.

Mutts moves well for his size and strength, likely close to an average NBA athlete if still far from the best of the best. But he’ll be able to hang for stretches at a time, and even switch briefly if needed.

He has learned how to be ultra-opportunistic, reading the floor faster than his younger opponents. The activity is generally good, but with advances to his fitness could find even more ways to weaponize his +7 wingspan.

In fact, there were only four other high major players who got steals and blocks as frequently as Mutts while fouling 3x or less per 40 minutes as he did. His feet could be a little quicker on isos, his leaping could be better off of two feet, and he will likely be too short to handle true bigs, but Mutts has shown enough to believe he’ll consistently hang in. His backpedal is good, and, when combined with an elite wingspan (7’3”) and hand placement give him plenty of opportunities to stay in a play.

It was difficult to choose between big or forward for Mutts’ position. He was certainly a big for Virginia Tech, and his ability to set heavy screens while quickly catching the ball into a decision-making position is extremely valuable for getting onto the floor as a rookie. I am not confident in him as a catch and shoot threat, and therefore more screens/less shooting for me means he will be best suited as a big. He is an ideal smallball/zone-busting big, with his ability to thrive as a forward on offense contingent on finding a system to maximize his passing/slashing/screen-setting combo.

In that case, offensive rebounding might be the swing skill instead of shooting. Mutts has a strong preference for leaping off of one foot versus two, usually not a major issue but, if he can improve off two, will increase his odds of winning the dirty battles down low that would give him even more scheme flexibility. If he can survive against 6’10” post bigs that will allow an NBA team lineup flexibility, then letting Mutts burn a slower-footed opponent on offense.

In all, I’m excited to see how Justyn fits in on an NBA court, as I believe the skills and athleticism are enough to earn some experimentation from perhaps a young team trying to glue together their play finisher bets. Or a playoff team looking to scheme-proof their bench. Justyn has all the traits of what you need in a big wing/small big connector piece with bankable skills and a nose for knowing how plays will develop.

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Efe Abogidi out of Delta State, Nigeria is G League Ignite’s 2nd prospect from their African global academies. Abogidi played his last two seasons for the Washington State Cougars. While there, he made Pac-12 All-Freshman and led the Cougars to an NIT Final Four. After going through the draft process last season, Efe decided to delay entering the draft one more year. However, he decided to forego his remaining NCAA eligibility, opting to sign for G League Ignite. The 6’10” mobile big man brings on a versatile skillset for a rim runner, and provides team Ignite with a defensive anchor in the paint. His shot-blocking prowess may be one of the best in this class. He will look to showcase it against the many skilled big men in the G League.

Offense

Some of the most important things a big man can do on the offensive end are set screens, rim run and crash the offensive boards. Efe excels at these attributes, and also has some fun folds in his offensive game. Efe is a strong screen setter, and moves quickly and with intent towards the rim in the PnR. Alongside Scoot Henderson, Efe will be getting plenty of opportunities to show his strength as a lob threat in the PnR, and his ability to impact the game with his screen setting.

Efe’s soft touch makes him a great post threat. He showed this off with a few post fadeaways and hook shots early in the GLI season. Efe also has shown to be able to hit the midrange jumper, which he’s become more accustomed to with GLI. Last season at WSU, Abogidi shot 36.4% on 77 attempts, showing that he is at least capable of hitting the shot and a willing shooter. His 79% free throw percentage bodes well for hopes that Efe will be able to develop this shot, and maybe even a 3 pointer, to make him a more versatile player than your average rim runner.

Defense

Abogidi is a premier shot blocker, however sometimes to his detriment. An issue with many great shot blockers is they tend to assume that they’ll be able to block any shot. This sometimes leads to allowing a player to get past you in order to get a better angle on the block, rather than getting the best contest on a shot. Some players that exhibit this often are Myles Turner and Walker Kessler. While this can be effective in the stat sheets, it occasionally leads to blow-bys and open looks at the rim. Abogidi falls into this style of defense more often than not. However unlike Turner and Kessler, Abogidi is much more mobile. His 7’4″ wingspan and ability to get into a low wide stance make him switchable onto wings or larger guards. His quick foot speed helps him recover when he does get beat. Abogidi averaged 3.6 blocks per 70 possessions last season at WSU.

Efe excels by not sagging too close to the rim and using his long wing span to contest any pull up jumpers in drop coverage. Showing high could also attribute to the block chasing, but Abogidi is athletic enough to recover when beat off the dribble. This leads to many emphatic blocks. While not the perfect defender, it’s hard to ignore Abogidi’s impact around the rim, and the presence he imposes defensively.

Conclusion

There’s no better player for a center than an elite point guard, and playing next to Scoot Henderson will open many opportunities for Efe Abogidi. The Scoot and Efe pick and roll has already been unleashed in the G League, and will be a go-to for team Ignite. With consistency in his jumper and adequately anchoring the Ignite defense, Abogidi could prove to be one of the better big men in this year’s class.

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Sidelined by turf toe in his Junior year, Houston Cougars guard Marcus Sasser is a National Player of the Year candidate. The two level scorer was looking like a first round pick last season prior to injury, which saw him sidelined for the Cougars’ Elite 8 run. Now, he returns as the main piece of the Cougars as they look to make a championship run under Kelvin Sampson. As the top dog of the team, the bright light is shining on Sasser. With improvements to his production, he could likely be one of the first Seniors off the board come June.

Offense

Prior to injury, Sasser was struggling around the rim, shooting just 42.1%. However, this was on just 25 attempts, and he was looking to get to the rim significantly less often than in the past (4% of his plays compared to 14% his sophomore year). In the year prior, Sasser shot a respectable 58.5%, one that he is probably more likely to replicate this season. However, this is still a weak point for Sasser offensively. He is a bit contact averse around the rim, leading to a lower free throw rate. However, driving and getting to the line isn’t where Sasser does the most of his damage. The majority of his rim makes come off attacking closeouts or in transition anyway, as Sasser often elects to be a jump-shooter instead.

And rightfully so! Over 60% of Sasser’s total shot attempts as a Cougar have come from behind the arc, and for good reason. He’s a career 36.4% 3 point shooter, and was shooting 43.7% from 3 prior to injury last season. His quick release makes it hard for defenders to contest him. His ability to shoot off the dribble as well as his ball-handling combine to create a deadly deep-range scorer. Sasser shot 46% on catch and shoot 3s and 40% on off the dribble 3s, showing he can beat a defense from deep in a multitude of ways.

Sasser also gets plenty of reps as a playmaker in Houston’s offense and has shown a willingness to make the right pass. Not a great playmaker, Sasser is still able to run the PnR effectively, and could probably be more effective if he is able to improve around the rim. Playing with a strong screener and lob threat like Jarace Walker could open Sasser’s playmaking up this season, as Houston’s front court is more talented than in previous seasons.

Defense

A gritty Houston defense can definitely attribute to the energy of Sasser’s defense, but after 4 years of Kelvin Sampson, it probably becomes second nature. Sasser excels on his instincts defensively, disrupting PnRs by navigating through screens and reading passing lanes before they even open at times. Sasser does a great job of interrupting the flow of the other teams offense. Either knocking balls loose on drives, helping onto players to disrupt their movement or blocking off passing lanes.

As an off-ball defender, he glues onto his man and fights through screens well. Houston likes to switch, especially with their small size so Sasser has experience guarding up, albeit not great at it. He is often beat by longer or quicker defenders, however his 6’7″ wingspan does help him engulf other guards. At the very least, Sasser can be expected to hold his own defensively against guard players.

Conclusion

In his first game of the season, Sasser scored 21 points on 50% shooting from the field and from deep. He showed off his defensive intensity against a poor Northern Colorado team, swarming them from the jump, leading to 4 steals. Becoming a better scorer inside the arc will be key for Sasser, but it is a jump-shooters league at the next level. As long as the 3 continues to fall, and Houston continues to run through Sasser, he could likely become a National Player of the Year, and earn a roster spot in the NBA next season.

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Amen Thompson is a 6’7” wing who pairs otherworldly athletic gifts with unique movement patterns and burgeoning playmaking instincts. His movement skills and leaping ability are at the center of his appeal as a prospect: Amen’s first step, load time, and vertical pop off of one and two feet are all beyond elite. Perhaps his most freakish athletic trait is the speed of his long strides, which he uses to cover ground impossibly quickly in big space.

Amen loves to accelerate full-throttle towards the rim out of odd body alignments or spots on the floor – he often challenges angles that most other players wouldn’t even consider, much less attack. This trait gives his herky-jerky driving game a unique rhythm that keeps defenders constantly off-balance.

Thompson leverages these athletic gifts to generate constant rim pressure, even with his handle and poise in tight spaces currently at rudimentary levels. He’s a comfortable drive-and-kick passer, rarely pre-determining his decisions off the bounce and able to throw cross-court kickouts accurately with his dominant right hand. He loves to manipulate outnumbered defenders on his drives, frequently faking passes to freeze rotators and exploit the inherent numbers advantage generated by a blowby.

The biggest hole in Amen’s game is his shooting: both his percentages (51% from the line, 25% from 3 in his 1st OTE season) and mechanics (wonky base with an exaggerated leg kick and major disconnect in energy transfer from lower to upper body) leave something to be desired. The development of Amen’s in-between game is arguably just as important to his star outcomes as his 3pt shot; without a reliable push shot or pullup midrange jumper, it’ll be extremely difficult for him to maintain volume as a driver.

While still likely to be a positive on that end, Amen’s defensive upside is diminished slightly by his only non-elite athletic trait, his tight core. He flashes suffocating mirroring skills at the point of attack, but once a ball handler manages to gain a half-step, he can struggle to flip his hips and restack atop the driver. When defending off the ball, Amen is an incredible helpside rim protector, often skying for perfectly timed blocks that few 6’9” wingspan players could dream of. At the next level, Amen would be best utilized in the “roamer” role, able to act as a defensive playmaker to blow up actions with his ground coverage, and provide backline support with his vertical pop and instincts.

On his rookie contract, Amen can thrive as a complementary wing, able to do damage in transition (both as a ball handler and play finisher) and as a connector in the half-court, where his burst can pierce even the slightest lag in rotations and cause defensive breakdowns. I’d also like to see Amen utilized as a screener, especially as a short roller, where he can be schemed into open runways and high-leverage decision making opportunities at the same time. This is somewhat similar to the role Jonathan Kuminga played in his rookie year, where Kuminga (like Amen, a highly touted prospect who was used primarily as an on-ball scorer in his youth career) readily accepted his reduced role as a connecting combo forward. As a long term bet, Amen’s physical tools and passing acumen sketch the outline of a dominant 2-way wing – he just has to fill in the (admittedly large) holes that cloud his projection.

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The best way to describe Victor Wembanyama (“Vic”, “Wemby”), who has earned some of the loftiest praise we’ve ever seen as a prospect, is to say he’s potentially one of the best floor *and* ceiling raising prospects, on both offense *and* defense of all time. Let’s put context around this.

As a 7’5” person who can move on a joypad like an NBA wing but with an 8’0” wingspan, Vic can cover more territory in a shorter amount of time than possibly anyone in NBA history. He is the lynchpin of not just the best defense in the top French pro league as an 18-year-old, but the best by 13 points in defensive rating through four games (Vic’s ASVEL had the best defense in the league last season, now below average). To get the negatives out of the way, Wemby appears to have poor peripheral awareness and can also be slow to leap with force. Fortunately for him, he is able to close-out at the three point line before turning to block a shot at the rim as effective as anyone I’ve scouted, making up for the lack of hyper-awareness.

Wembanyama’s developmental trajectory has been very positive for his defensive progression. At Nanterre from age 15 to 16, Vic was tasked with aggressive showing and constantly being matched up with guards a foot shorter. Compared to a drop defender’s (typically, not always) more limited responsibilities, Victor is used to having to defend a wide variety of coverages. In his time at ASVEL, after growing into his body better and adding some strength, provided him with a chance to develop more traditional big skills, particularly how to position himself for rebounds and keep his hands up and active (this can occasionally still be an issue). Now, at Metropolitans 92, Vic often guards on the wing while also being an active help defender.

This access to any kind of scheme, where his movement skills and length will always be an extreme asset, making for endless teambuilding opportunities around Wemby. And now we get to his offense.

Even at age 15 debuting in the French pro league, Wembanyama experimented with complex shot-making and risky passes. One major appeal of Vic’s is that he’s essentially the best safety valve of all time. If your offense struggles to get a high efficiency shot, Victor makes a huge target and, with his excellent shot prep footwork, balance, solid mechanics and good touch, will always be able to get off a decent shot.

As we’ve seen him explode for 30+ points in games with multiple threes made, often off of movement or the dribble, the potential for him as a shotmaker is sky-high. While he still struggles with passing decision-making on occasion, he is very creative and often able to make high-leverage reads. Finally, he also has a good chance to be one of the best roll finishers in the league, with soft hands to collect lobs and increasing aggressiveness at the rim.

Here, we see how the possibilities multiply exponentially. Wembanyama is able to play as a drop big and lob threat with connective passing to clip regular season wins before becoming a switch-all defensive playmaker who can also space the floor on offense to make his team impossible to scheme against. Any coach must be eager to figure out unique ways to apply his skills to their own team as it’s impossible to find a bad fit. And if he continues to polish his technique, as his current team Metropolitans has been encouraging, a multi-MVP career feels in play.

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