It is important to remember that a basketball player’s trajectory is not always their own. I say this in the case of Eric’s game as his usage and role was more easily explained by his team’s immediate needs than his own path to become an NBA player. That path is dim, as Williams was a super senior at San Diego with little by way of draft buzz, but I’m here to argue he deserves it.

First, let’s look at Williams’ time at Duquesne.

There have only been six players to put up 30%+ shooting on 8+ threes per 100 possessions as a freshman while also dunking 10+ times and rebounding 20%+ of chances while on the floor. Jabari Smith (#3 pick), Miles Bridges (#12), Greg Brown III (#43), Justin Lewis (UDFA), Cam Whitmore (likely top ten pick)…and Eric Williams Jr.

All of those players went on to the NBA while Eric returned for a sophomore year at Duquesne.

There have only been ten players to put up 55% shooting at the rim on over 100 attempts while dunking over 20 times, shooting over 5 threes per 100 possessions and rebounding 10%+ of offensive chances while on the floor as a freshman or sophomore. Chuma Okeke (#16), Lauri Markannen (#7), Jalen Smith (#10), Jabari Parker (#2), TJ Warren (#14), Christian Wood (UDFA), Jamine Peterson, Tari Eason (#17) and Naz Reid (UDFA).

All but one of those payers went on to the NBA while Eric transferred to Oregon.

At this point we have well established that Eric has a rare combination of shotmaking and athleticism. At Duquesne he was able to showcase this best, given the ball in opportunistic spots where he could embrace his full play-finishing self from the perimeter or slashing.

At Oregon and San Diego, however, his athleticism was seen as an opportunity to fill big man gaps, playing up a position as the power forward in both positions. He even jumped center for San Diego after their big man went down with injury, not just one position off but two from his natural spot for most of the season.

His game is far from perfect, often careless with the ball or getting confused on defense. But it is difficult to know how damaging those traits are when his strengths aren’t being properly maximized.

Offense

Eric Williams Jr. is a play finisher in the extreme. He has dynamic strides with great flexibility making up for improvisational handle. He is best, simply put, catching and shooting, and has the small-space wiggle to get himself open to take a ton of attempts if needed. Six threes per game as a freshman at a 36% clip is nothing to scoff at. His free throw percentage has hovered around the low 70s, not an elite shooter but with the balance needed to convert off of movement and standstill alike.

He is very aggressive and dynamic attacking the rim as well. When so many great shooters are reluctant to hoist attempts when covered or burn through traffic to the rim, Eric indulges in it. At 6’6.25” in shoes, Williams uses his full 6’9” wingspan and strong build to bully through larger opponents, what enabled him to play up so consistently despite not being his optimal role.

I would love to see Williams get back to the simple in a G-League system better catered to his strengths. The biggest limiting factor is his overall execution when an offense stagnates, panicking into turnovers. But if he gets the ball knowing what he’s supposed to do with it, and, ideally that being attacking closeouts (his noted favorite scoring method in the interview) as well as staying active on cuts and transition. An eager shooter with shooting skill and athleticism is always valuable. Eric pairs these traits with a herky-jerky playing style that keeps an opponent off-guard even in perfect position. This has also compensated for his worse than average passing by opening up large passing windows where he can deliver. Put him around true connectors and a real rim protector and let him cook.

Defense

Eric presents similarly on defense as offense: unpredictable but always active, and taking pride in not being beaten. The details are murky here too, too often falling for fakes or over-committing to cause turnovers, but this activity often results in those good plays, too. I am most optimistic in Williams as a screen runner, utilizing that ankle flexibility and strength to power through at low angles and trail with great acceleration. If it wasn’t clear enough by now, Williams is a fantastic, dynamic athlete, and those have the tools to stay on the court.

When asked about his favorite games in college, Williams identified versus Saint Louis, a game where he put up 40 as a sophomore at Duquesne, and as a super senior versus Utah State, where he put up 43 points. But those were also two games where he got to pick up full court for periods, and was locked in the entire time despite the offensive usage, even tallying a total of four stocks in the two games.

The rebounding has always been great, the most consistent part of his game with over 1,000 board in his college career, 718 on defense and 315 on offense. He is also above water as far as comparing steals and blocks to fouls, once again showing how his aggressiveness paid off even if he missed a rotation here and there.

Summary

Eric Williams Jr. has some items to clean up to make it in the NBA or even a consistent role in the G-League, not ideal for one of the oldest in the draft. But age does not equate to lack of upside, as his role has ventured far from ideal but also led to him solidifying some skills that support his best traits.

A patient but smart G-League team would revisit Williams’ Duquesne tape and see how best to use Williams in a downhill attack role while also providing spacing, rebounding, intensity. While his draft buzz is low, his best basketball years are still ahead of him.

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First, in his own words:

A 6’7 shooter from the University of Toledo, JT Shumate is one of the more interesting evaluations in the 2023 draft class. He’s a prime example of a player whose role in college is significantly different than what it projects to be in the NBA.

Offense

Offensively, JT’s game is built around his long range shooting. He shot an extremely impressive 44.4% from 3pt on 284 attempts over his final 2 years at Toledo, backed up by an also excellent 84.6% from the FT line over the same stretch. He showed a solid amount of versatility as a shooter in college as well, primarily operating in pick-and-pop/catch and shoot scenarios but also showing occasional flashes of movement shooting and self-created looks.

If you’re nitpicking you could point to his lack of 3pt volume (career 6.7 3PA/100 possessions at Toledo) being a solid bit lower than most high end shooters (for reference, Gradey Dick, Jett Howard, and Brandon Miller all shot at least 10 3PA/100 possessions or higher this season), but otherwise his profile as a shooter is about as strong as you could ask for in a forward prospect.

JT also has some definite skill inside the arc on offense, although it can be tricky to determine how much it translates given the amount of center Shumate played in college. JT was effective as a post scorer and P&R screener at the college level, but it’s unlikely that JT’s NBA role would feature much usage in either of those playtypes. His ability to attack closeouts and finish at the rim were also strengths for Shumate in college, and could be more translatable NBA skills. In that case he projects primarily as a tall shooting floor spacer rather than a versatile scorer, but potentially a good one at that.

Defense

Defensively, Shumate was also used in a much different fashion than he’ll be asked to play in the NBA. Despite being 6’7” with a 6’9” wingspan, Toledo commonly played JT at center where he held his own for the most part. There were definitely times where Shumate got overpowered by bigger 5’s and he’ll very likely never be a teams primary rim protector in the NBA, but he did manage to average 2.4 blocks/100 possessions in his college career and some of the timing and instincts he showed as a shot blocker could definitely be an asset as more of a secondary rim protector at the next level. 

The toughest area of evaluation for JT by far is his defense in space out on the perimeter. It’s a skill that makes or breaks the NBA chances for a lot of big shooters like Shumate, and he frankly didn’t get a lot of reps as a traditional wing or forward defender at Toledo due to them needing him on the interior. In the rare occasions that he was defending out on the perimeter, he did look pretty comfortable and moved his feet well. There’s a big difference between guarding situationally in the MAC and having to defend NBA wings and forwards full time, but if he’s is able to hold up in that regard there’s a good chance that the rest of JT’s game is enough to carve out a spot at the next level.

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The short scouting report pitch for Mutts is a connector / finisher hybrid who can hold his own on defense. A scheme-solving PF who processes the floor with the best of them.

But the narrative of how he’s gotten here is just as interesting. A fifth-year player who sat out a year due to transfer, Mutts was one of the oldest players in college basketball as turned 24 in January. But if you’re going to use all your eligibility, there better be something to show for it. Mutts perhaps has as much to show for his development within the NCAA as any upperclassman, encouraging that he will adapt to whatever new challenge at the next level.

Starting his career at High Point in the Big South Conference, Mutts was more of an energy wing. He won by slashing to the basket with his motor, length and handle, getting from point A to B in an instant. He sat out a year to then transfer to Delaware in the CAA, then learning how to play the high/low game, more of a post-up flex player they trusted to give over 20% usage.

The flashes of passing vision were there, and obvious:

The execution was improving, as slowing the game down was one of the areas for improvement before. He added almost a full extra steal per 100 possessions while fouling once less.

His time at Virginia Tech, however, is when it all started to click.

First, the passing.

Mutts is a good connective passer first for Virginia Tech, making sure the action gets set up and the shooters their touches. However, he also has a chaotic creativity that few do, adapting as the actions break down. In particular he is adept at finding cutters in rhythm. Mutts is always in sync with what his teammates are trying to do and gets them the ball where they can use it.

His assists per 100 ballooned all the way to 7.7 this past year, at a 1.6x ratio to his turnovers. Most notably, he figured out how to use his dribble to create angles, with his ability to get to the rim quickly meaning bigs have to help last second as Justyn is dumping the ball off to his teammate.

The true swing skill on offense is his distance shooting, where results have been mixed. He has never taken more than 50 threes in a season, but is an adequate 30% from distance. His range seems to be well within midrange, though, going 137-333 for a respectable 41% over his NCAA career. His free throw percentage is low/mid-60s, not great but not broken. A corner three is not out of the question, but will need to catch up from lack of reps so far in his basketball career.

Being able to hit in midrange is enough to keep his passing options open, however, and I don’t see anything unworkable in the mechanics. His best weapon is his over the shoulder mini-hook, particularly after spinning into opponents to create space and give himself a rhythm. When he’s decisive getting into it, the routine maximizes his passing threat, rim threat and ambidexterity. He spent a lot of time finding the gaps in the opponent’s defense at Virginia Tech, cutting into an open dunker spot or flashing to mid-post after screens.

The defensive end is where Mutts is the most of a tweener. He could be seen used all over as Virginia Tech’s best, biggest athlete, for example guarding Paolo Banchero one minute and AJ Griffin the next in their ACC title win. The Hokies used him mainly on post ups to start the 2022-23 season but eventually placed more on wings.

Mutts moves well for his size and strength, likely close to an average NBA athlete if still far from the best of the best. But he’ll be able to hang for stretches at a time, and even switch briefly if needed.

He has learned how to be ultra-opportunistic, reading the floor faster than his younger opponents. The activity is generally good, but with advances to his fitness could find even more ways to weaponize his +7 wingspan.

In fact, there were only four other high major players who got steals and blocks as frequently as Mutts while fouling 3x or less per 40 minutes as he did. His feet could be a little quicker on isos, his leaping could be better off of two feet, and he will likely be too short to handle true bigs, but Mutts has shown enough to believe he’ll consistently hang in. His backpedal is good, and, when combined with an elite wingspan (7’3”) and hand placement give him plenty of opportunities to stay in a play.

It was difficult to choose between big or forward for Mutts’ position. He was certainly a big for Virginia Tech, and his ability to set heavy screens while quickly catching the ball into a decision-making position is extremely valuable for getting onto the floor as a rookie. I am not confident in him as a catch and shoot threat, and therefore more screens/less shooting for me means he will be best suited as a big. He is an ideal smallball/zone-busting big, with his ability to thrive as a forward on offense contingent on finding a system to maximize his passing/slashing/screen-setting combo.

In that case, offensive rebounding might be the swing skill instead of shooting. Mutts has a strong preference for leaping off of one foot versus two, usually not a major issue but, if he can improve off two, will increase his odds of winning the dirty battles down low that would give him even more scheme flexibility. If he can survive against 6’10” post bigs that will allow an NBA team lineup flexibility, then letting Mutts burn a slower-footed opponent on offense.

In all, I’m excited to see how Justyn fits in on an NBA court, as I believe the skills and athleticism are enough to earn some experimentation from perhaps a young team trying to glue together their play finisher bets. Or a playoff team looking to scheme-proof their bench. Justyn has all the traits of what you need in a big wing/small big connector piece with bankable skills and a nose for knowing how plays will develop.

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If you want a versatile two way guard who fits into nearly every lineup, Cason Wallace is your guy. Wallace joined Kentucky as a 5 star recruit out of Richardson, Texas, and he was able to meet his high expectations during his freshman season. Cason was able to make a large impact on both sides of the ball this season, as he was the team’s primary point of attack defender on defense while being the team’s table-setter on offense. 

Offense

Cason Wallace’s offensive skill-set likely does not lead to many future outcomes of being a primary advantage creator. However, I think his combination of connective passing, shooting off the catch, and ability to attack closeouts helps him project well into an off-guard role. I believe that Wallace can be the perfect off guard for a strong downhill advantage creator, as he provides all of the connective skills that you would like for an off guard.

To start off, Cason Wallace is an excellent ball mover. Wallace always makes the proper swing pass to the open man, which is a necessary skill for an off-ball player in the NBA. When a defense is tilted or in rotations, moving the ball to find the open man is absolutely crucial, and Cason is great at perceiving these advantages against the defense. Wallace is an excellent decision maker, as you will rarely ever see him forcing a risky pass. Advantage creators typically can get away with making riskier passes, as those risky passes typically have higher potential to lead to a scoring opportunity (such as an interior pass through a small window or a kick out using eye manipulation). 

Cason Wallace pairs his connective passing well with his great off-catch shooting and smart relocations off the ball. Wallace does a good job of keeping the floor spaced while opening himself up for shots, and he often looks to find open pockets on the perimeter. Wallace shot 34.6% from three on 7.1 threes per 100 this season, and he projects to be a consistently solid shooter in the NBA. This level of shooting will lead to teams closing out on him the perimeter, where he is able to attack the closeout by driving downhill. Off these downhill drives, Cason is a good finisher at the rim and is great at absorbing contact around the basket. He is also able to settle into spots in the mid-range if a defender rotates towards the basket, as he is comfortable hitting pull-up shots in the intermediate ranges. These closeout attacks also allow Cason to showcase his connective passing abilities, as he is always looking to make the right pass off of these drives.

Finally, Cason has some upside as a pick and roll ball handler, and I believe that there are outcomes where he is a secondary or tertiary creator in certain lineups. While Cason may not have the most elite burst in the world, he has some very impressive moments of decelerating and stopping on an instant, as he is good at rotating his front leg to stop his forward momentum. He has also shown some impressive footwork on self-created jumpshots, and in high school showed a fairly advanced triple threat game. As for his pick and roll playmaking, Cason is excellent at delivering accurate pocket passes to rolling big men when able, and has shown extreme comfort making strongside kickouts when a strongside player makes the mistake of helping off their man.

Defense

If you thought I had some fairly high praise for Cason’s offensive game, just wait until you read this part about his defense.

To me, Cason Wallace is one of the three to five best defenders in this draft class. I would say that he is one of the three best point of attack defenders in the class, as his ability to consistently pressure ball-handlers is a rare skill. Wallace has extremely quick feet laterally, he does not waste any movement, and he is always engaged. He gets into a very low defensive stance that makes him extremely difficult to move for a player of his size, and when you pair that with his foot speed and defensive tenacity, you get the perfect formula for an elite on ball defender. 

His feel for the game on defense is extremely high, as you will rarely ever see him missing a rotation. Cason understands help concepts very well, as he is always seen tagging rolls, properly zoning up weakside 2v1s (though he typically is the one making a low rotation), and switching when need be. He is an excellent help defender, though he does have a bit of a tendency to over-help when on a strong-side player. This extra help can lead to him leaving a shooter open, though he is often able to recover due to his great closeouts. This feels like an easy fix when translating his game to the pro’s, as the team will mold his incredible skill-set to fit their defensive scheme. 

To round off his defense, Cason Wallace has active, quick, and accurate hands on defense. This hand activity leads to him getting many steals, as he was able to surmount 2 steals per game and an elite 3.7% steal percentage. When he isn’t swiping at the ball, he can be seen using his hands as a tool to not let drivers get into his frame, and he will often wave in the face of a ball-handler to fluster them. He is also able to get some recovery blocks with his active hands and physical tools, though I would not project him to make too much of an impact as a rim protector due to his size. I would say that he can provide auxiliary rim protection when off the ball, though he will likely be playing at the point of the attack primarily in the NBA. 

As for his screen navigation, Cason is typically able to get over screens fairly well. When he enters his low defensive stance, he is typically able to get skinny around the screener’s base and torso, though he occasionally gets caught when a screener sets a borderline illegal screen (as does almost everyone). I have noticed that Cason tends to cheat screens as well, which can lead to him being out of position when a ball-handler denies the screen.

Overall

Cason Wallace is a player that all coaches would love to have on their team. Cason does the jobs that many players do not want to do, and he typically keeps it simple with the ball. Cason projects perfectly next to a high level advantage creator, and when his minutes are staggered with said advantage creator, I believe he can be a perfect tablesetter for a bench lineup. He can set up actions, make all of the right passes, call the plays, and capitalize when he is given an advantage. Cason Wallace will likely be selected in the lottery of this year’s draft due to his extremely valuable skill-set, and I am extremely confident that we will look back and say that Wallace was the right pick for whatever team ends up selecting him.

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The freshman came into the year as one of the most highly touted prospects, taking his talents from the DMV to the U of V. Following an impressive showing for Team USA during the summer, he unfortunately suffered a thumb injury during pre-season practice, which sideline him for the first 7 games. However, it didn’t take him long to start producing for Kyle Neptune, dropping 21 in his second game and putting the public on to his powerful driving game and a bevy of athletic tools. Whitmore is currently projected as a top 10 pick in this upcoming draft, so let’s dig a little deeper to why that may be.

Offense

You can’t start talking about Cam’s offensive game until you mention his standout trait: getting to the rim. Cam has the perfect athletic package to not only create separation to get downhill, but to convert that advantage into points in the paint. More importantly, he is able to create consistent and valuable paint touches in the half-court, a desired ability for any NBA team. Cam has the quick first step necessary to get an initial advantage over his defender, and smart at capitalizing on open space in Villanova’s 5-out offense. Whitmore favors driving left, responsible for 79.7% of his drives. He is able to maintain the advantage by getting low to the ground and being relentless on his attack to ehe paint, shedding contact with ease. Before we discuss on his strengths and weaknesses after generating a paint touch, I want to pick apart the decision-making process before he decides to take the ball to the rack.

Cam is a score-first player, no doubt about it. In their offense, he functions strictly as a perimeter threat, generally floating around the arc until he gets his opportunity with the ball. Here and there, he’ll make a nicely timed cut, but it’s a relatively small part of his game. When Whitmore has the ball on the perimeter, he can take some time before making a decision, presenting some ball-stopping tendencies. The 6.4 AST% is indicative of where he is at as an offensive piece, rarely passing out on drives and preventing himself from creating passing opportunities for teammates. Back to the finishing, which is displayed below:

Cam has the rare combination of elite size, footwork, vertical athleticism, and touch. He is confident and efficient finishing with any hand, foot, and side of the rim mismatched with each other. The 64.3% finishing at the rim in the half-court speaks for itself (this is 99th%tile good). His explosion translates from his driving game into his air arsenal, reaching impressive heights complemented with exquisite body control. Adding to all of this, he has 28 dunks on the year, not afraid to hammer it down. His relationship with contact is an interesting one, sometimes struggling to maintain balance initiating it. He only produced a free throw rate of 25.1, awfully low for a man of his stature and athletic tools. I don’t think this number is quite accurate for said statistical projection or a representation of contact aversion, but of his perimeter shot selection.

Cam’s intrigue extends to another level when you take into account of his potential as a shooter, and a perimeter shot-creator. From 3, he shot 40% (45 att.) off C&S opportunities and 29.7% (64 att) off the dribble. You can’t leave him open, and he’s a scary sight to closeout against. The shot overall looks pretty good, can make some tweaks to the timing and some of the upper release, but it’s good enough to draw closeouts at the next level. The heavy usage off the dribble sparks interest and also a little speculation. The numbers aren’t great, and the little separation created on stepbacks and the slow release doesn’t suggest the greatest outlook in the world. Cam can find himself over-dribbling and not maintaining an advantage or creating one at the rim, but deciding to go for an OTD jumper. His handle is good but not great, and doesn’t a support a heavy unassisted diet as it was at Villanova. Overall, I buy the shot.

Defense

In all honestly, his defense is a bit of a mystery to me. He falls under the typical “has the athletic tools to be very good but doesn’t put enough effort”, but with an extra caveat, which I’ll get into in a bit. He profiles as a switchable wing from the 2-4 positions, and I think he can hold his owns vs more explosive guards, but not quite at the next level. His strong frame is apparent, and when he slides his feet, he does a great job of walling off drives. The screen navigation is good when engaged, but he can be a bit out of position and not prepare himself with the necessary footwork and posture to effectively get over the screen. Can be susceptible to quick movements (jabs, fakes, etc) that can knock him off balance, but has quality recovery tools.

The off-ball defense is very much a work in progress, and I think it’s something that will develop with age. At his current state, his understanding of off-ball principles aren’t quite there, and combining that with lapses in attention and half-full engagement, the results aren’t on par for what they could be. He does possess some defensive event creation (4.8 STK%), but can find himself gambling for balls and being too reactive on his reads. Villanova is pretty small, and he’ll often be played at the 4 defensively, making him responsible for help-side rim protection and rotations in the paint. This seems to be new territory for Cam, as he often doesn’t make the rotation or even know if it’s his responsibility. When he does, it’s generally gets good results with his high-point contests. He fights well in the post and makes a real effort to box out, even when it’s not his man.

Conclusion

Cam is a blast to watch, at least once a game you’ll see a drive by him that gives you a stank face. I sound like a broken record, but the athletic tools are there, and his ample driving game and shooting potential give him enough of a reason for a team to take him in the single digits. His role was a bit odd at Nova, playing with a very short leash, being taken out for relatively minor mistakes even at the end of the season. His diverse skillset makes him a nice fit for nearly every team, but I can see nice slots in Indiana, OKC, and Portland for him. He is still very young and a lot of negative leaning parts of his game or more than capable to improvement, even to points of positive. The sky is the limit for Cam, metaphorically but maybe not figuratively.

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Kel’el Ware entered his freshman season at Oregon a Top 10 recruit and one of the most divisive prospects of the class. With physical tools as far as the eye can see, Ware is an incredibly interesting upside swing in a class full of potential contributors. What has he shown so far, and what can he do to hear his name called in the lottery?

Offense

Ware’s offensive game starts with his potential to space the floor. He is currently shooting 31% on only three attempts per game, but his shot looks smooth with the potential for versatility. He has taken spot ups, pick and pop and even transition threes to start the year. That diversity of attempt is encouraging and can hopefully lead to a higher volume throughout the year.

He has good touch in the post with his hook shot or fade-away and has succeeded in punishing mismatches when teams switch. He is a more aggressive screener than most thin teenage big men, but has not spent much time as a roll man. He struggles to move people in the post, but his reach and touch help make up for his limited strength.

Ware has flashed a feel for the game as a connective passer and off-ball mover that would greatly increase his potential lineup malleability. There is still a way to go, but his touch passes out of the post and ability to exploit open spaces of the court has been encouraging. His length and reach gives him a leg up chasing rebounds above the heads of his competitors. The budding skills of a big connector, but not consistent enough yet to be a focal point of his game.

Defense

When defending the hoop Ware is a bundle of physical tools and potential. He is both a fluid and explosive athlete, though the latter is still in its early stages. He is a thin 7 footer and will take some time to grow into and harness his frame, but the foundation is already there.

He is formidable around the rim when he is there, but could do a better job asserting himself as a rim protector. Ware has played a lot of the four at Oregon, and while he has the tools to thrive there it has allowed him to become less aggressive around the rim.

He is solid moving in space and has shown the ability to play the cat-and-mouse game of the pick and roll, darting between the ball handler and roller. He covers ground well in switch situations and closing out to shooters, where his wingspan helps to cover up the gaps. There are bouts of disengagement throughout the tape, but when he is playing confidently and aggressively Ware can be a real difference maker. 

He will need to gain significant weight, but that feels like an inevitability. He’s still 18 and there are no real impediments to gaining weight from a frame perspective. Currently he is easily pushed around on the block and on the glass, that will need to improve for him to spend any time at center. Ideally some of his timidity on the defensive end can be helped through a simplified role and improved physicality.

Overview

Kel’el Ware is, and will continue to be one of the hot-button prospects of the 2023 class. With his combination of length, fluidity, skill and youth there are few prospects that match his potential upside on both ends of the court, but it is a long way from coming together. In a loaded class at the top and bevy of suitors waiting below, Kel’el Ware may end up an x-factor in what has the makings of an incredibly competitive class.

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A year after averaging just 6.6 points and 5.1 rebounds per game for a Missouri team that finished 3rd to last in the SEC, Trevon Brazile has emerged as one of the best players on an Arkansas squad currently ranked top ten in the nation. Through seven games, he is on pace to nearly double his scoring average from last year with 11.9 points per game. How exactly has Brazile made such a massive leap in production, and how high can he rise as an NBA prospect? 

Offense

Brazile spent most of his time on clean-up crew last season, damaging defenses on put-backs, cuts, and dump-offs. More than half of his makes rim makes were dunks, with over 70% of those field goals coming off assists. While certainly not an offensive engine, Brazile’s has taken on a larger role in Arkansas’ offense. Utilized more frequently as a roll-man, closeout attacker, and pick-and-pop shooter, his usage rate has increased from 16.3% to 21.2%.

Seeing Brazile find success as a roll man this year is unsurprising. Despite his incredible bounce and wide catch-radius, Missouri rarely used him as a roller. Brazile should be able to threaten defenses as vertical spacer at the pro level, and his current average of 1.95 dunks/40 is a solid mark for a college 4-man. However, I’d be hesitant to label him an elite PnR finisher at just 212 lbs. I would also like to see him set stronger screens going forward. His quick slips to the basket can be effective, but Brazile rarely seems to generate any contact on his screens.

It’s dangerous to make sweeping claims about shooting improvements based on a seven-game sample, but Brazile’s early season numbers are promising. He has knocked down 10 of his 26 3-point attempts, good for 38.5%. Most encouraging is the volume spike. After taking just 3.7 3PA/100 last year, Brazile is currently putting up 6.9 attempts per 100. The diet consists primarily of pick-and-pops, spot-ups, and the occasional semi-movement jumper. Though his dip is still somewhat elongated, he looks far more confident letting it fly than he did at Missouri. Record-scratching moments like the first clip below are now few and far between.

Coming into the season, I was curious to track Brazile’s development as a slasher. He certainly isn’t a pro-level closeout attacker yet, but he has shown some encouraging improvements. 50% of his rim makes have come unassisted this season versus just 29.5% last year. Even though he misses the initial attempts in the first clip below, it is great to see him getting somewhat low and generating contact. Brazile’s snappy second jump allows him to put-back many of his misses at the rim. Still, his loose handle, lack of shake, and strength deficiencies limits him as a driver and finisher. Developing a reliable push shot could be an avenue to greater efficiency inside the arc, a maneuver that isn’t currently a consistent tool in his bag (1/12 on non-rim 2-pointers).

The final clip in the above compilation, in which he misses both the push shot and an open Anthony Black in the corner, highlights another area of improvement for Brazile: passing. He has only recorded seven assists so far this season, and while his role doesn’t necessarily put him in situations to show off any particularly advanced passing reads, I’d like to see him make quicker decisions when attacking off the catch.

Defense

Though he may lack the bulk to be a full-time big, Brazile is a phenomenal rim-protector with exceptional length and instincts. He gets off the ground quickly and loads up with ease for second and third jumps. Check him out denying the massive Kofi Cockburn not once, not twice, but three times.

Brazile posted a remarkable 10.0% block rate last season, with just 2.4 fouls per 40. Of the 19 high major Freshmen who recorded a block rate higher than 4.0% in 2021-22, all except two averaged less than four personal fouls per 40 minutes: Alex Fudge (4.8 BLK%, 3.2 Fouls/40) and Trevon Brazile (10.0 BLK%, 2.4 Fouls/40). This speaks to Brazile’s awareness, coordination, and hand placement. The list of high-major Freshmen with block rates greater than 8.0% and under 3 fouls/40 since 2008 is short and sweet:

The play below is an absurd display of athleticism. He rotates from the weak side, gets his head literally to the level of the rim off a standing leap, locates the ball, and contorts his body to pin the shot.

In the limited Arkansas sample, his block rate is way down (4.0%), and the foul rate is way up (4.1 personal fouls/40). Seeing the fouls increase isn’t necessarily horrible, though ~4 is a bit high for my liking. There were times when Brazile seemed to shy away from contact last season, leading to lower foul numbers. This year, he looks more aggressive around the rim, providing much more resistance in the post. I’ve also loved his tenacity on the glass, with a 22.9% defensive rebounding rate thus far.

Moments of rawness persist on film, whether it be falling asleep away from the ball or getting his footwork tangled on-ball. But when fully locked in, Brazile does an excellent job using his length and movement skills to shrink offensive advantages. He covers ground exceptionally well and causes havoc in the passing lanes. He has the foot speed to stick with smaller ball handlers, and even when shaken, his massive reach allows him to recover to contest jumpers.

Conclusion

Brazile offers an exciting ceiling as a two-way Forward with his defensive playmaking ability and budding offensive skill set. I question how he contributes offensively if his shooting improvements aren’t legit, and think he has plenty of room to grow from a play-to-play perspective defensively. But if Brazile continues to shoot with the confidence he has to start the season, it’s hard to imagine him sliding outside the top 20 on draft day.

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The 6’5″ wing out of Beaumont, Texas Terrance Arceneaux has been an integral part of the Houston Cougars early on. Ranked the 45th player of the 2022 HS class per RSCI, Arceneaux has become a spark plug off the Cougars bench, and caught the eyes of many so far this season. Although considered a two-year prospect by the Cougars, Arceneaux’s early season play warrants talks of early entry to the NBA draft. Despite being relatively raw, Arceneaux’s well-rounded skillset could provide plenty for an NBA team, and could see him getting workouts this offseason.

Offense

Offensively, Arceneaux has a raw but well-rounded game. He can get downhill off the dribble, has functional flexibility and athleticism, and spot up off the catch. He’s showed some flashes of being a good playmaker off the dribble. However, this is an aspect of his game that probably develops further down the line. As of right now, he’s being used as a play finisher, spacing the floor for the Cougars and attacking in space. His handle is still a bit loose and he loses the ball with a bit of contact. But, with more on-ball reps and filling his frame out, he can make this less of an issue.

Arceneaux has been a solid three point shooter so far this season, shooting 36.4% from deep. However, his form could use a bit of work, especially on the follow through. Arceneaux has a leftward wrist flick on release, often due to poor hand placement. This flick makes his shot a bit inconsistent, as it is a variable in his form that both adds more movement and doesn’t appear on every release. Setting his hands on the catch and readjusting his form would help get rid of this extra movement, and make his form and (hopefully) accuracy more effective.

While good at attacking closeouts and making moves off the catch, Arceneaux tends to sell his movements before making them. He is reliant on a stutter step when driving, taking a quick step with his right foot before going downhill. This is a great move to have in your bag, however Arceneaux uses it VERY often, and has few other ways to attack closeouts. His creativity in these situations is great, yet limited, and likely needs to add more counters and folds to his downhill game before being able to be consistently effective.

Defense

Arceneaux has been a solid defender for the Cougars on the wing, being able to guard multiple positions in a small Houston lineup. Playing in a big man role during high school play, he has now moved out guarding the perimeter. His time guarding the paint is apparent in how he rebounds. Arceneaux often throws his whole body into rebound attempts, which helps him out-position bigger players due to his scrawny frame.

Arceneaux has great feel and instincts on the perimeter, and buys into Kelvin Sampson’s defensive system well. His energy defensively and strong hands have him all over the place. He is often diving for loose balls or disrupting plays by getting into passing lanes or ball-handlers’ air space. His high motor defensively fits the Cougars’ system to a tee and should help him play up at the next level, as he is currently both undersized and scrawny. By beefing up a bit and continuing his hyper-active defense, Arceneaux can effectively guard wing players of all sizes, and potentially some bigs.

Overall

While still very raw, Terrance Arceneaux has made an impact on both ends of the court early and cut out a role as the Cougars main bench piece. Arceneaux is probably a returner in this class. However, should be a player who attends combine and gets feedback from teams. If the remainder of the season goes a bit better and he works out well, there’s a good chance he could be a first round pick in this upcoming class. Regardless of which year he enters the draft, he has the tools to become an impactful player at the next level.

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Maxwell Lewis is a sophomore wing at Pepperdine who has started the season off on a tear. With positive size, athleticism and shooting touch Lewis has an intriguing case as both a high floor and high ceiling option in the first round.

Offense

First and foremost, Max Lewis is a shooter. He is quick getting into his release and has the height to shoot over a contest. He flashes a genuine confidence as a shooter, but there is room for additional volume from distance as he is currently taking less than four attempts per game.

Within the arc is where the flashes of self creation are more prevalent. Lewis is comfortable attacking closeouts into a pull up jumper or taking the ball all the way to the rim. He does not have an advanced handle and is limited in his ways he can attack off the bounce. Lewis’ smooth transition into a jumper off the dribble offers a helpful safety valve as the defense collapses. His creation really thrives posting up against a mismatch utilizing his touch, height and athleticism to get quality looks. 

The handle is a limiting factor in terms of his playmaking for others. Lewis is rarely creating advantages he can capitalize on, but he is confident reading the court. Lewis has a good feel for the offensive end, but it shows itself in less pronounced ways due to the role he is asked to play. He moves well without the ball and has a knack for putting himself into position to score without the ball in his hands.

Defense

As stated at the top, Lewis is a positive athlete with good size for his position. His brightest moments are guarding the point of attack where he can use his frame and quickness to disrupt ball handlers. He does a good job navigating screens and using his length to recover and contest. When he is able stay in front there are moments he simply absorbs smaller ball handlers with his superior height and length, a valuable attribute for a complementary wing.

Lewis’ off ball defense is more of a mixed bag. He has the tools to succeed there and flashed some good moments closing out to shooters but is too often disengaged in the play. He can get caught ball watching, putting himself out of position to defend his man as a cutter or shooter. He has the ability to be an impactful help defender at the rim and on the perimeter but has struggled to do so consistently. Turning his awareness into action would go a long way towards a more diverse defensive impact.

Overview: 

Maxwell Lewis is an incredibly intriguing prospect as a two-way wing that provides more offensive potential than a typical 3+D specialist. He can score in a variety of ways, all while providing the necessary spacing of a low usage wing. Nearly every team in the league could use an athletic, sweet shooting wing who can defend at the point of attack. If Lewis is able to improve the security and confidence of his handle he could become something even greater.

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The younger brother of Knicks forward Obi Toppin, Jacob Toppin is a highflying wing with the Kentucky Wildcats. Now in his Senior season after transferring from Rhode Island his Sophomore year, Toppin has played as one of the main options for a stacked Wildcats team. He has made huge strides in his game since his freshman year and looks to become a draft candidate in the upcoming class through his shot making potential, athletic ability, and playmaking flashes.

Offense

Toppin’s jumpshot has looked very improved since his Freshman year at Rhode Island, however the shot percentage hasn’t improved much. Toppin is shooting just 23% from 3 so far this season, although on the most attempts per game of his college career. Improving on his shot percentages could open up a lot for Toppin offensively. He has a great pull-up jumper, and is automatic from around the free throw line. By being a threat from deep, he can force harder closeouts, and open himself up more for those mid-range jumpers.

Toppin is the only forward on the Wildcats who has any ball-handling duties. An incredible rebounder, Toppin often leads the break for Kentucky, being their only premier rebound-and-run threat. His decision making in the open court is decent, normally getting the ball to either Sahvir Wheeler or Cason Wallace and then finding open space to either fill the court or finish the play. He makes decent reads and can find the open man in transition. However, in the half-court Toppin tends to struggle. He is a subpar decision-maker with the ball and his passes often go awry. When driving into the paint, he seems to be figuring out what he’s doing as he goes, leading to turnovers or bad plays.

Toppin’s athleticism makes him a premier lob threat. He takes great routes when cutting to the rim, curving his path to generate more force off one leg (a technique often used by soccer players and high jumpers). He finds open spaces really well and moves well without the ball. This, combined with his ability to explode off the floor can help him be a great cutter at the next level.

Defense

As previously mentioned, Toppin’s biggest is his rebounding. He has a quick leap that allows him to get up over players and is fantastic at tracking the ball. He is able to snake around box outs, finding advantages down low to generate space for boards. Toppin is averaging 10.4 rebounds per 70 possessions, and his ability to lead the break for Kentucky has benefitted their offense greatly.

Toppin has the athleticism of a good shot-blocker and has shown flashes of being a strong help-side defender. However, his slow reactions and lack of awareness are major holes in his game. He often gets caught on screens or ball watches to the point that he loses his man. When he is locked in, like has been in more recent games, he can be an effective defender both on-ball and helping in the paint. He is a great leaper, with a long wingspan and can recover well on quick guards when he’s focused. However, the lapses defensively lead to him being beat off cuts and off the catch to the point where he can’t recover. With better focus and awareness on this end, Toppin has the tools to be a positive NBA defender.

Overall

Toppin’s steady improvements offensively have benefit him as a draft candidate. Although his overall game needs a good amount of fine tuning, he has plenty of tools that make an NBA player. With a focus on his defensive awareness, on-ball skills and improvements to his shooting form, Toppin can see himself becoming a top 60 prospect in this upcoming class, and potentially a rotational player down the line.

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